Farmers Say $12B Aid Package Falls Short Amid Trade Strain

Many U.S. farmers say a newly announced $12 billion federal aid package will not be enough to offset mounting financial pressure caused by weak commodity prices, high input costs and lingering trade disruptions. The assistance, unveiled by the Trump administration, is designed as a temporary bridge for producers facing declining export demand and rising expenses. But farm groups and economists warn the payments may only partially cover losses, particularly for growers hit hardest by reduced overseas sales. Soybean producers remain among the most affected after years of reduced purchases from China, once the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans. Corn, wheat and specialty crop producers have also reported narrowing margins. USDA officials say the aid is intended to stabilize farm income while longer-term policy changes take shape. Still, some farmers argue the package does little to address structural trade challenges, including market access barriers and growing competition from foreign exporters.

USDA Signals No Additional Farm Aid Beyond $12B Package

The Department of Agriculture does not plan to issue additional emergency farm aid beyond the recently announced $12 billion assistance package, even as financial stress deepens across the farm sector, said Richard Fordyce, USDA's undersecretary for farm production and conservation. The payments are intended to help producers cope with low commodity prices, elevated production costs and reduced export demand tied to ongoing trade tensions. But economists and farm advocates warn many operations may continue to struggle without further support or stronger export growth. U.S. agriculture has traditionally posted trade surpluses, but rising imports and slowing exports have pushed the sector into a widening trade deficit. That shift has weighed heavily on farm income, particularly for row-crop producers dependent on foreign markets. USDA officials say budget constraints and existing authorities limit the department’s ability to offer more aid in the near term. Many farmers, however, say long-term relief will depend less on direct payments and more on expanded trade opportunities.

Mexico Begins Dumping Investigation on U.S. Pork Imports

Mexico has launched an investigation into U.S. pork imports, alleging that unfair pricing and government subsidies may be harming Mexican producers and processors. Mexico’s Secretariat of Economy said it initiated antidumping and countervailing duty probes after domestic pork producers, processors and trade groups complained that imports of U.S. hams and pork shoulders surged and were sold at less than fair value. The complaints allege the imports pressured domestic prices and hurt profitability. The ministry will examine alleged dumping and subsidies from 2024 and assess potential injury to the domestic industry from Jan. 1, 2022, through 2024. The subsidy investigation will review federal and state-level grants and payments. Under World Trade Organization rules, countries may impose duties if dumped or subsidized imports cause material injury. Any duties would apply prospectively after a preliminary finding. Mexico is the top export market for U.S. pork, importing about 1.15 million metric tons valued at nearly $2.6 billion in 2024.

'Product of USA' Meat Labeling Rule Takes Effect Jan. 1

A new USDA labeling rule takes effect Jan. 1, tightening standards for when meat, poultry and egg products may be identified as a product of the United States. Under the regulation, finalized in March 2024, companies may use labels such as “Product of USA” or “Made in USA” only if the animals were born, raised, slaughtered and processed in the United States. Meat from animals imported live for feeding or processing no longer qualifies. Products that are minimally processed may use qualified claims, such as noting they were sliced or packaged domestically using imported meat. The rule does not require companies to use U.S.-origin labels, but any firm that does must maintain records supporting the claim. USDA will generically approve labels without additional verification programs. The regulation applies only to domestic sales, not exports. Critics warn it could strain trade ties, particularly with Canada and Mexico, and discourage imports of live animals.

Lawmakers Divided on Whether Farm Bill Can Be Passed in 2026

Congressional Republicans plan to revive stalled farm bill negotiations in January after failing to pass a new measure by year’s end, extending uncertainty for farmers facing high costs, inflation and trade disruptions. House Agriculture Committee Chairman G.T. Thompson said he hopes to schedule a committee markup ahead of a Jan. 30 funding deadline, though he acknowledged it may be difficult to attach the bill to must-pass spending legislation. The delay means Congress will enter a third year without updating major agriculture policy. Lawmakers remain divided over whether a traditional five-year farm bill is still achievable. Thompson and Senate Agriculture Chairman John Boozman say progress remains possible, even in an election year. But some policy experts are skeptical, noting recent budget legislation sharply expanded farm subsidies while cutting food assistance, weakening the longstanding political link between the two. Congress extended the 2018 farm bill for another year in November, giving lawmakers until Sept. 30, 2026, to enact a replacement.

Dairy Farmers Earned More but Still Lost Money in 2024

Higher milk prices and lower feed costs helped Illinois dairy producers post positive cash returns in 2024, but operations continued to face negative economic returns, according to the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management Association. The average net milk price was $21.63 per hundredweight, up 79 cents from 2023, exceeding feed and cash operating costs of $17.43 but falling short of total economic costs of $23.56. On a per-cow basis, producers averaged $5,090 in milk returns compared with production costs of $5,499, resulting in a net loss of $409 per cow. Milk production averaged 23,530 pounds per cow, up 549 pounds from a year earlier. Feed costs declined to $11.64 per hundredweight, while nonfeed costs rose to a record $11.92. Despite improvement from 2023, returns have not exceeded total economic costs in the past decade. USDA projects lower milk prices in 2025 and 2026, suggesting continued negative economic margins for Illinois dairy farms.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

With USDA closed on Wednesday and Friday, the export sales report originally scheduled for Friday morning has been moved to Tuesday morning at 7:30 a.m. CST, which will include data for the week ending December 11. Also at 7:30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the delayed third quarter U.S. GDP report. Finally, at 2 p.m. CST, USDA will release their quarterly Hogs and Pigs inventory report.

Weather

Warm air continues to build across the middle of the country on Tuesday, with record highs falling from the Southwest into the Mid-South. Cold air up in Canada is setting up a boundary across the north and showers are moving from the West into the Northeast across this boundary. Areas in the North-Central U.S. will take a break Tuesday, though