Ag Organizations Respond to U.S.–China Agreement

The American Farm Bureau Federation  and the American Soybean Association both welcomed news of China’s renewed commitment to import U.S. agricultural products. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said the organization was encouraged by China’s plans to buy more soybeans and sorghum, noting that trade disputes have already burdened farmers facing high costs and low prices. ASA President Daryl Cates called the announcement a positive step for soybean growers who have endured years of global uncertainty. He emphasized that China remains one of the most vital export markets for U.S. soybeans, but long-term progress depends on predictable and transparent trade policies. Both organizations stressed that while the agreement signals improvement, consistent purchases and reliable market access are essential for restoring confidence and stability in U.S.–China agricultural trade.

Commodity Prices Fall Amid Record Global Supplies

Grain and oilseed markets continued to weaken Friday as record harvests weighed on prices. Wheat and soybean futures slipped overnight, extending a month-long downturn fueled by abundant global supplies and soft export demand. Analysts said favorable weather across major producing regions and expanded planted acreage have led to an oversupply, pressuring commodity markets already facing narrow profit margins for farmers. The World Bank last week projected agricultural commodity prices will fall about 7% in both 2025 and 2026, marking the longest decline since the early 2010s. Lower input costs and improving logistics have helped stabilize production, but they also risk further depressing prices if demand fails to rebound. Traders are watching for updated U.S. Department of Agriculture data this week, which could confirm another record corn and soybean harvest. Futures remained mixed in early trading, with wheat down 0.8% and soybeans off 0.5%.

USDA Transfers $13B into ‘Slush Fund’ for Future Tariff Relief

The U.S. Department of Agriculture transferred $13 billion from its Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) into a new “Farmers Support Program” fund tied to tariff relief — a move that has drawn scrutiny because lawmakers were not informed. Government Executive reports the CCC is a long-standing account that supports core farm programs such as conservation payments, dairy margins and price support. Because the funds were shifted without notifying Congress, some critical programs are facing shortfalls. About $3 billion of the transferred money was later clawed back to resume operations of certain USDA services and reopen agency offices during a government shutdown. But roughly $10 billion remains in the Office of the Secretary, unused pending activation of the tariff relief program. Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), a top appropriations member, criticized the move as undermining key farm programs and centralizing funds without oversight.

Senate Rebukes Tariffs on Brazilian Coffee

The U.S. Senate voted 52–48 this week to end tariffs on Brazilian imports, including coffee, in a bipartisan rebuke of President Donald Trump’s trade policy. The tariffs, imposed under emergency powers in July, added a 50% duty on goods from Brazil, citing concerns over the prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., led the resolution, arguing the tariffs have driven up grocery costs, with coffee prices rising more than 20%. Five Republicans — Mitch McConnell, Rand Paul, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Thom Tillis — joined Democrats in support. While the measure is unlikely to advance in the House or survive a veto, it highlights growing frustration in Congress over the use of emergency powers for trade. Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter, has warned the tariffs threaten jobs and strain U.S.-Brazil relations.

“Legacy Effects” in Soil Microbes Influence Plant Resilience

Scientists at the University of Kansas are uncovering how soil microbes retain “legacy effects” that shape how plants respond to changing environments. The research, published in Nature Microbiology, examined soils from six locations across Kansas — from the humid tallgrass prairies in the east to the drier shortgrass regions in the west. Researchers conditioned the microbial communities under both drought and well-watered conditions before planting native grasses and maize. They found that soils with a history of drought fostered microbial communities that improved drought tolerance in a native prairie grass by altering root gene expression related to water uptake. However, those benefits were less pronounced in maize, suggesting native plants are better tuned to local microbial legacies. The findings highlight how past climate and land use can leave lasting microbial “memories” in soil, which may be harnessed to improve crop resilience as global temperatures and droughts intensify. 

Traces of Old Farm Chemicals Contaminate Water Across the US

Traces of long-banned pesticides persist in U.S. groundwater, a new U.S. Geological Survey study shows, even as concentrations of most chemicals generally declined. An analysis of 59 groundwater networks from 1993 to 2023 found only one pesticide — the insecticide DBCP, outlawed since 1977 — exceeded health benchmarks in a Central Valley site in California. The New Lede reports levels of the remaining 58 old-school chemicals dropped across the networks. Yet persistent traces remain, particularly in farm regions such as the Midwest, underscoring long-term contamination. The study coincides with proposed U.S. Geological Survey budget cuts under the Trump administration. The administration has characterized environmental monitoring as politically driven, while the Office of Management and Budget seeks to slash USGS funding by 38%. Critics warn reduced funding could cripple the nation’s ability to track water quality and pesticide risks nationwide. 

Monday Watch List

Markets

To begin the month of November, USDA will update traders on export pace with their weekly inspections report due out at 10 a.m. CST. Otherwise, it may be a return to a quiet tone in the markets for the most part following last week's trade focus and heightened volatility. USDA announced that the November WASDE will indeed be released towards the middle of the month, however, which will keep speculators engaged with price bets on where USDA will forecast U.S. row crop balance sheets for 2025-26.

Weather

A clipper system moving through central Canada is producing showers around Michigan early Monday morning. That will combine with a coastal system in the Mid-Atlantic to bring scattered showers into the Northeast later Monday. Breezier winds across the north may be a noticeable feature across northern areas as well. The next clipper will move through the Pacific Northwest with limited showers on Monday as well.