Farmers for Free Trade Sounding Economic Alarm Regarding Tariffs

All summer, Farmers for Free Trade has been on the road and holding events called Tariff Town Halls in half a dozen states. The events all brought together farmers, business leaders, economists, and trade experts to spotlight how newly-imposed tariffs are already harming the communities that grow and make American-made products that power local economies and are in demand around the world. At each stop, farmers and experts shared new data, on-the-ground stories, and growing urgency. Just days before the Fourth of July, agricultural leaders at a town hall in Little Rock, Arkansas put it bluntly: “I’ll tell you this much as a producer. Between 20 and 30 percent of the producers in the United States would be out if this doesn’t change between now and December.” On a per-state basis, Texas businesses paid $934 million more in tariff costs. North Carolina also saw a 190 percent spike in its tariff costs. 

June Missouri River Runoff Much Below Average

June runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, was 3.3 million acre-feet, 60 percent of the average. The updated 2025 calendar year runoff forecast for the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City is below average. Mountain snowpack melted more rapidly than normal, and all reaches except the Sioux City reach experienced below normal precipitation during June,” said John Remus of the Army Corps of Engineers. “The June runoff was less than forecast, and dry conditions will continue in July.” The June 2025 runoff forecast above Sioux City is 19.1 million acre-feet, 74 percent of the average and slightly lower than last month’s forecast. System storage on July 1 was 52.1 million acre-feet, four million below the top of the carryover multiple-use zone. The monthly study indicates that the winter release from Gavins Point will likely be at the minimum rate of 12,000 cubic feet per second. 

Groups Want a New Chief Agricultural Negotiator

Over 40 U.S. agricultural groups, including the National Corn Growers Association, sent a letter to President Trump asking him to quickly nominate a Chief Agricultural Negotiator in the USTR Office. The groups said the nomination is critical to prioritizing the needs of American agriculture amid the ongoing reciprocal trade negotiations. “The chief agricultural negotiator is an asset to farmers and ranchers across the U.S. as well as within the federal government,” the letter said. “That voice ensures that agriculture issues are prioritized as negotiations are ongoing and become more complicated.” The role is responsible for conducting and overseeing international negotiations related to the trade of agricultural products. The role is politically appointed, and each incoming administration is responsible for nominating someone to serve in the position. The letter comes as farmers and ranchers are facing challenging economic conditions. U.S. farmers and ranchers also heavily rely on exports to be successful

NCBA Applauds Farm Security Action Plan

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association applauded Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins’ Farm Security is National Security action plan. The USDA is releasing a number of farm security and national security policies supported by NCBA and America’s cattle farmers and ranchers. “We’re blessed to have hundreds of thousands of family farms and ranches producing beef right here at home,” said NCBA President Buck Wehrbein. “NCBA strongly agrees with Secretary Rollins that farm security is national security.” He also said NCBA is pleased that the agency is protecting our family farms and ranches, scrutinizing foreign acquisitions to ensure they don’t threaten American agriculture, protecting American agriculture research from foreign adversaries, and bolstering animal health programs to prevent a foreign animal disease outbreak. As part of the plan, USDA will increase its oversight of foreign land acquisitions, strengthen inspections to root out dangerous products entering the U.S., and prevent the spread of potentially devastating diseases. 

Legislators Look for a Skinny Farm Bill this Fall

Republicans on Capitol Hill cleared their agriculture megabill hurdle. Now, they’re looking to pass a smaller farm bill that will include important priorities that haven’t been updated since 2018. Politico says lawmakers already included $67 billion in spending on farm bill programs in the reconciliation bill. That means some of the most expensive priorities were taken care of. However, there are other farm programs and priorities that need funding, extension, or updating. House Ag Chair GT Thompson looked ahead to a “skinny” farm bill, calling it “farm bill 2.0” and predicting a cost of less than $8 billion. He expects the Fall legislation to be largely based on what the House Ag Committee advanced in 2024. “Unless Democrats purely want to play politics, there’s no basis for partisanship with what we’re planning to do with the rest of the farm bill,” Thompson said. He’s planning on finishing it in September. 

2023 and 2024 Disaster Assistance for Farmers is Now Available

Agricultural producers who suffered eligible crop losses due to natural disasters in 2023 and 2024 can now apply for $16 billion in assistance through the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program. To expedite the help, assistance from the Farm Service Agency is coming in two stages. This first is open to producers with eligible crop losses who received assistance under crop insurance or the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program during 2023 and 2024. Stage One sign-ups will start in person at FSA County Offices on July 10, and prefilled applications are on the way to producers through the mail. Stage Two sign-ups for eligible shallow or uncovered losses begin in early Fall. Eligible losses must be the result of natural disasters occurring in calendar years 2023 and-or 2024. To qualify for drought losses, it must have occurred in a D2 or D3 drought or a greater intensity level during the applicable calendar year. 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Weekly Slaughter at 2 p.m. CDT

Weather

There is still a front in the East down to the Gulf Coast that will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms for Thursday, including potential for some areas of heavy rain and possible severe weather. However, the main concerns will be in the North-Central states where a disturbance ahead of a system is producing showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning and more should develop with the system moving in later Thursday across the Northern Plains.