Corn, Soybean Prices Slide as Global Supplies Weigh on Markets

U.S. corn and soybean futures slipped again this week as traders weighed ample global supplies against sluggish export demand, according to market analysts and federal data. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said recent export inspections for corn and soybeans fell below last year’s pace, adding pressure to prices already near multi-year lows. Analysts at commodity research firm StoneX said large South American harvests and rising global stocks are limiting near-term upside despite seasonal demand. Currency strength in Brazil has encouraged aggressive farmer selling, further swelling global supplies. At the same time, U.S. farmers continue to face elevated input costs, squeezing margins as planting decisions approach. Market analysts said weather risks later in the growing season could still inject volatility, but near-term sentiment remains bearish. USDA will release updated supply and demand estimates next month, which traders say could provide clearer direction for spring markets.

Midwest Livestock Producers Monitor Avian Flu Spread

Livestock and poultry producers across the Midwest are stepping up biosecurity measures as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continues to circulate among wild birds and commercial flocks. The USDA confirmed additional detections in poultry operations this week, while state agriculture departments urged producers to limit farm traffic and monitor animals closely. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the risk to the public remains low, though outbreaks continue to disrupt egg and poultry supplies. Reuters reported that egg prices remain volatile as producers depopulate affected flocks and rebuild inventories. Industry groups say supply recovery could take months, particularly for smaller producers with limited resources. Farm organizations warned that continued outbreaks could strain rural economies and add costs throughout the food chain. Federal and state officials said they are coordinating surveillance, indemnity payments and response efforts to limit further spread during peak migration season.

Farm Groups Urge Action on Year-Round E15 Access

Corn growers and ethanol producers renewed calls this week for nationwide, year-round access to E15 gasoline, saying regulatory delays continue to hurt farm income. The Renewable Fuels Association said higher ethanol blends could boost corn demand and reduce fuel costs for consumers. Iowa Corn Growers Association officials cited USDA data showing large corn carryouts that continue to pressure prices. Oil industry groups remain divided, arguing that infrastructure and regulatory concerns must be addressed before broader adoption. Meanwhile, several Midwest governors are urging federal agencies to grant permanent waivers ahead of the summer driving season. Ethanol supporters say expanded E15 sales could provide immediate economic relief for rural communities while supporting lower-carbon fuel goals. Without action, farm groups warn that declining margins and limited market access will continue to strain corn-dependent regions.

Global Dairy Markets Face Uneven Demand

Global dairy markets are sending mixed signals as milk production remains steady while international demand shows signs of weakening. USDA data show U.S. milk output holding near last year’s levels, though regional variations persist. Meanwhile, slower import demand from Asia has weighed on global prices, particularly for skim milk powder. Dairy economists said feed costs have eased slightly, offering some relief to producers, but margins remain tight. Industry analysts noted that cheese demand has remained relatively strong domestically, helping offset weaker export markets. Farm groups said volatility underscores the importance of risk management tools as producers navigate uncertain price signals. USDA is expected to release updated dairy outlook figures later this month, which could influence producer decisions heading into spring.

Specialty Crop Growers Seek Labor Stability Ahead of Spring

Specialty crop growers are voicing renewed concerns about labor availability as spring planting and harvest seasons approach. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, labor shortages remain one of the top challenges for fruit and vegetable producers, particularly in labor-intensive crops. USDA surveys show farm labor costs continuing to rise, squeezing already thin margins. Reuters reported that immigration policy uncertainty and rising wage requirements have added complexity for employers relying on guest worker programs. Growers say delays in visa processing could disrupt planting schedules and reduce yields. Farm organizations are urging Congress to advance agricultural labor reforms, warning that prolonged instability could shift production overseas. Despite the challenges, producers said consumer demand for fresh produce remains strong, keeping pressure on growers to find workable labor solutions.

Ag Equipment Makers Cautious as Farm Income Pressures Persist

Agricultural equipment manufacturers are taking a cautious outlook as lower crop prices and tight farm margins dampen new machinery demand. John Deere executives said recent earnings reflect softer equipment sales, particularly for large tractors and combines, citing reduced farmer purchasing power. USDA forecasts show net farm income declining from recent highs, largely due to weaker commodity prices. Dealers across the Midwest are carrying higher inventories as farmers delay upgrades. Analysts said elevated interest rates have also discouraged capital spending. Manufacturers are increasingly focusing on precision agriculture and aftermarket services as alternative revenue streams. Industry observers say equipment demand could rebound if commodity prices recover, but near-term uncertainty is prompting conservative outlooks across the sector.

Friday Watch List

Markets

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release December producer price index data on Friday at 7:30 a.m. CST. As for ag focused reports, the day session will be quiet but following the close USDA will release the highly anticipated Cattle Inventory report at 2 p.m. CST, which will offer insights into the U.S. beef cattle herd. Finally, CFTC will round out the week with their Commitments of Traders report at 2:30 p.m., updating trader positions as of Tuesday, January 27.

Weather

A small clipper system is moving into the Southeast on Friday morning but doesn't have much precipitation with it. However, it will bomb out off the Carolina Coast Friday night and especially Saturday, leading to some heavy snow around the Carolinas and strong winds for the East Coast. That system will pull some very cold air southward through the country through the weekend, leading to the coldest air of the year for Florida.

Groups Applaud President’s Call for Year-Round E15

The Renewable Fuels Association applauded President Trump for strongly reaffirming his support for America’s ethanol industry. During a stop in Des Moines, Iowa, he called on Congress to send a bill approving year-round E15 to his desk “very quickly.” Trump said he would sign the bill into law without delay. RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper said Trump understands the quickest and surest way to boost the farm economy is “to open a vast new market opportunity for grain-based ethanol.” The Iowa Corn Growers Association also applauded the president, saying they appreciate him for shining a light on E15. “He recognizes the weight this legislation holds to us as corn growers,” said ICGA President Steve Kuiper (KY-per). “A recent study by Iowa Corn and the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association shared the positive effects year-round E15 would have on corn growers.” U.S. corn growers have pushed for year-round access for over ten years.

NFU Urges Buy-Up Coverage Restoration

National Farmers Union submitted comments to the USDA to restore crop insurance buy-up coverage for acres prevented from being planted. NFU warned that recent changes weaken a critical risk management tool for farmers facing mounting economic pressure. Farmers Union President Rob Larew said farmers and ranchers are facing some of the most challenging economic conditions in decades. “The decision to eliminate the option to purchase additional coverage for prevented planting only deepens that strain,” Larew said. “When high input costs, volatile markets, and extreme weather converge, farmers need every risk management tool available to protect their operations, and we strongly urge USDA to restore prevented planting buy-up coverage.” Doing so would mean farmers can continue to manage risk and remain economically viable. When weather conditions prevent timely planting, buy-up coverage provides critical protection for producers of covered commodities in all 50 states, helping them manage financial losses and maintain stability. 

USMCA Review Roundtable Series

Farmers for Free Trade announced a national series of USMCA roundtables that will bring together farmers, trade experts, and elected officials to discuss the critical importance of strengthening and renewing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. The first of three roundtables will be in San Antonio, Texas, on February 24, La Crosse and Eau Claire, Wisconsin, and Southeastern Iowa in the Quad Cities region. Additional roundtable locations will be announced throughout the spring and summer. “USMCA is the foundation of American agricultural trade, supporting farmers in every corner of the country,” said Brian Kuehl (KEEL), executive director of Farmers for Free Trade. “Mexico and Canada are our top two agricultural export markets, accounting for over $58 billion in annual exports.” He also said it’s essential that farmers have an opportunity to share directly with their elected representatives how critical this agreement is to their operations and communities. 

RFA Report Shows Drop in Ethanol Production

Data from the Energy Information Administration, analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association for the week ending on January 23, showed that ethanol production dropped 0.4 percent to 1.1 million barrels a day. That’s equivalent to 46.8 million gallons a day. Still, output was 9.8 percent higher than the same week last year and 10.2 percent above the three-year average for the week. The four-week average ethanol production rate dropped 0.1 percent to 1.13 million barrels a day. Ethanol stocks shrank 1.3 percent to 25.4 million barrels. Stocks were 1.3 percent less than the same week last year but 2.4 percent above the three-year average. The volume of gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of implied demand, rebounded 11.8 percent to 8.76 million barrels a day in advance of the winter storm. Demand was 5.5 percent more than a year ago, and 5.3 percent above the three-year average. 

Food Safety During Super Bowl Celebrations

Super Bowl parties often feature takeout, delivery, and foods that are served over several hours. To help prevent foodborne illness, the USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service is reminding fans to keep food safety in play on game day. “When food is served throughout the Super Bowl, it can be easy to lose track of how long it’s been sitting out,” said USDA Undersecretary for Food Safety Dr. Mindy Brashears. Many Super Bowl favorites shouldn’t be left out for more than two hours, which is what the USDA calls the Danger Zone. FSIS offers a number of safety tips on handling takeout and delivery safely. They encourage serving food in smaller batches. Bring one batch out in the first half and another in the second half to ensure that food doesn’t stay out for more than two hours. Use a food thermometer to ensure that food reaches a safe minimum internal temperature when cooking at home.

January Rural Mainstreet Index Above Growth Neutral

The Rural Mainstreet Index climbed above a growth-neutral score of 50.0 for January. That’s according to the latest monthly survey of bank CEO’s in rural areas of a ten-state region. The January index was at 52.0, its highest reading since July 2023, and up from December’s 50.1. “More than one in three bankers, or 34.7 percent, indicated that their local economy was currently in a recession,” said Dr. Ernie Goss (GAHS) of Creighton University. “Another 27 percent of them expect their local economy to experience recession conditions in the first half of 2026.” Regarding President Trump’s imposition of tariffs, almost 40 percent of the bankers support pulling back on tariffs. After rising above growth-neutral in December, the farm and ranchland index fell below the threshold in January with a reading of 46.0. The farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 18.8, but was up from December’s even weaker 15.0. 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Thursday will kick off with the weekly export sales report from USDA at 7:30 a.m. CST. Also at 7:30, the Census Bureau will release the delayed trade balance report for November 2025. In the afternoon, USDA will release their weekly slaughter recap at 2 p.m. CST.

Weather

A small clipper is bringing down some colder air again from Canada into the northern tier of the U.S. for Thursday. That is clashing with some warmer air moving down from the Rockies to produce a little clipper system and snow in the northern High Plains. Some lake-effect snow is occurring as well, otherwise it is another quiet day.

China Turning to Brazil for Soybeans

China is ramping up its orders from Brazil to fill its soybean needs after it met the initial shipment volume from the U.S. as part of a trade truce with Washington. Over the past week, Bloomberg said Chinese importers have booked at least 25 cargoes of beans for loading mainly in March and April. “At the same time, state-owned companies in China have appeared to refrain from taking American cargoes,” Bloomberg said. “U.S. soybeans delivered to China on a cost-and-freight basis are at a steep premium over comparable beans from Brazil for February, so crushing them will likely incur heavy losses for processors.” Over the long term, the U.S. said China has committed to buying at least 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028, which means the nation may actually come back for more American cargoes later in 2026. 

Clean Fuels Wants 45Z Rules Finalized

Clean Fuels Alliance America sent a letter to President Donald Trump highlighting the biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel industry’s contribution to U.S. energy security and rural prosperity. The President is embarking on visits across the country to highlight economic conditions. The letter emphasizes that the industry’s growth is at risk as farmers and fuel producers await regulatory rules, specifically the Renewable Fuel Standards for 2026 and 2027, and rules for the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit that were due under the prior administration. “Our industry has made substantial investments to meet America’s demand for energy security and rural economic prosperity,” CFA wrote. “Our progress is threatened by delays in policy decisions that should have been made in the previous administration, and we’re hopeful you will quickly finalize these policies and secure your promise as the most pro-biofuel president in history.” 

Cooperatives Launch Major Low-Carbon Fertilizer Pilot Project

CF Industries Holdings, a manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, and POET, the world’s largest producer of biofuels, have launched a pilot project to develop a low-carbon fertilizer supply chain. The project, which includes other major agricultural cooperatives, is designed to demonstrate how the use of low-carbon nitrogen fertilizer can substantially reduce the carbon intensity of corn and enable the production of low-carbon ethanol for use in motor fuels and exports. Participants will track the carbon intensity certification of the low-carbon fertilizer produced by CF Industries and sold from its distribution network through retail distribution channels and finally to corn growers across Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, and Nebraska for ethanol production. POET expects to use the corn grown with low-carbon ammonia to produce an estimated five-to-six-million gallons of ethanol with lower carbon intensity. “Collaborating on this pilot program was an immediate yes,” said Paul Barr of WinField Crop Nutrients. 

FFA Members Travel to Spain for Observation

Over 70 FFA student members serving as state officers in their respective states started the new year by exploring the history, culture, and agricultural practices of Spain through the National FFA’s International Leadership Seminar for State Officers. The Seminar is an annual program designed to develop awareness of global agriculture and enhance the cultural competency of student members. The traveling state officers help lead more than one million members in over 9,200 local FFA chapters in all 50 states, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. “During the trip, students had the opportunity to both demonstrate their knowledge and learn about diverse agriculture practices across the globe,” said Joe Martin, program specialist with the National FFA Organization. “These experiences overseas help state officers share the unique agriculture practices of Spain with members of their home state associations.” State officers on the trip came from Alaska, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, and multiple other states.

Texas Cattle Raisers Responded to Cell-Cultured Lawsuit

The Texas & Southwest Cattle Raisers Association President Carl Ray Polk, Jr., commented after a federal judge denied the State of Texas’s motion to dismiss a lawsuit challenging the state’s ban on cell-cultured protein. “We remain committed to preserving the reputation and integrity of Texas beef, a product our membership has spent generations perfecting,” said Polk, Jr. “Our association will not stand idly by while animal cells grown in a lab are fed to Texas consumers with no long-term health studies proving their safety.” He also said the same industries, individuals, and organizations that promote and finance this unsafe product are the first to oppose or mount legal challenges against laws that require them to disclose to consumers that their product is cell-cultured. He added that any industry that refuses transparency with consumers should not be considered innovative, but rather dishonest. 

Administration Raising Tariffs on South Korea by 25 Percent

President Donald Trump said he is raising tariffs on South Korean imports by 25 percent. The BBC said Trump announced the move after accusing Seoul of not living up to the trade deal it reached with the U.S. in 2024. In a social media post, Trump said he’ll increase levies on South Korea from 15 percent across a range of products, including cars, lumber, and “all other reciprocal tariffs.” Trump said South Korean lawmakers have dragged their feet in approving the deal, while the U.S. government acted swiftly to reduce U.S. tariffs in line with the transaction agreed to between the countries. South Korea said it hadn’t received an official notice of the U.S. decision to raise duty fees on some of its goods, and asked Washington for urgent talks to rectify the issue. South Korea exported about $123 billion worth of goods to the U.S. last year, making it the second-largest export market after China. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Reports for Wednesday will include the weekly Petroleum Status report from the Energy Information Administration at 9:30 a.m. CST, which will include last week's average ethanol production. In the afternoon at 1 p.m. CST, the Federal Reserve will announce their interest rate decision at the conclusion of their January meeting, which will be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Weather

Another quiet and cold day on tap for Wednesday. Some lake-effect snow continues up around the Great Lakes, but much of the country will have nothing going on, allowing for more cleanup from the massive weekend storm. However, a clipper system will be moving out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains Wednesday night with some streaks of snow.

Vaden Accuses Companies of Fertilizer Collusion

Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen (Steven) Vaden said two companies have been working together to control the price of fertilizer in the U.S. by limiting supplies. Agri-Pulse said Vaden’s collusion accusation against Mosaic and Nutrien could suggest the administration may take future steps to inject more competition into the markets, if it becomes necessary. During a webinar hosted by the National Agricultural Law Center, Vaden said, “This administration is going to do everything it can to ensure that farmers have the fertilizer they’ll need and at a price they can pay. We’re not going to permit these companies to do anything that might undermine that.” He also said Nutrien and Mosaic were responsible for over 90 percent of phosphate fertilizer and potash production in North America during 2024. Farm Action, an ag industry accountability group, said only seven companies control 70 percent of crop input sales, including Nutrien Ag Solutions, the retail business of Nutrien.  

CoBank: Dairy Poised to Help Meet Protein Demand

Consumer demand for food and beverages with high protein levels continues to surge as a growing percentage of Americans focus on increasing their dietary protein. The sharp rise in demand is shifting buying habits and could transform the retail grocery space. A new report from CoBank said the strong consumer demand for protein bodes well for the U.S. dairy industry, given the high protein levels and nutritional qualities in traditional dairy products like milk, cheese, yogurt, and cottage cheese. “Dairy products have a unique advantage because they contain all nine essential amino acids required in a human diet, making it a complete protein source,” said Cory Geiger, lead economist for CoBank. “We expect more food and beverage manufacturers will take a cue from formulators that have already incorporated dairy-based ingredients into protein-centric product areas outside the retail dairy case.” More studies show that almost all consumers now associate protein with expanded health benefits. 

Legislation Would De-List Mexican Wolf from ESA Protection

The House Natural Resources Committee advanced the Enforcing Safety for Animals Act of 2025 with bipartisan support. The bill would remove federal Endangered Species Act protections for the Mexican wolf, restore common-sense wildlife management authority and provide much-needed relief to cattle producers and rural communities across the Southwest. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and Public Lands Council strongly support the bill, which would reduce regulatory barriers that have prevented effective management to safeguard livestock and rural communities from this abundant apex predator. “The Mexican wolf population has grown well beyond recovery goals, yet producers are left without the tools needed to protect their livestock, their families, and their livelihoods,” said NCBA Policy Division Chair Skye Krebs. “When predators can’t be responsibly managed, it puts people at risk and undermines the stewardship efforts of those who live and work on the land every day.” 

House Democrats Introduce “Farm and Family Relief Act”

House Ag Committee Ranking Member Angie Craig (D-MN) introduced the “Farm and Family Relief Act,” calling it a bill introduced to provide meaningful relief to family farmers. The bill would also help those getting crushed by inflation and higher costs caused by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and Republican cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. “Family farmers have been hit hard by tariffs and lost market opportunities,” Craig said when introducing the bill this month. “The Farm and Family Relief Act helps get America back on track by supporting farmers, foresters, and families together and putting an end to the president’s ill-conceived tariffs.” A new report from Joint Economic Committee Democrats said President Trump’s inflation cost the average family $1,625 in the past year. Fruit and vegetable prices are up 5.3 percent, while hardworking Americans paid $310 more for groceries in 2025 than the year before. 

EU and India to Announce a Long-Awaited Trade Deal on Tuesday

The European Union and India have long been negotiating a trade deal, and those talks are expected to conclude with a new trade deal to be announced on Tuesday. Reuters said India’s trade secretary made the announcement about a deal both sides hailed as “historic” while they both contend with strained U.S. ties. The deal will allow for the free trade of goods between the Union, made up of 27 nations, and India, which together make up a quarter of the world’s gross domestic product and a combined market of two billion consumers. The agreement comes days after the EU signed a pact with the South American bloc Mercosur (Mer-KOH-sur) and deals with Indonesia, Mexico, and Switzerland. During the same time, New Delhi (DELL-lee) signed agreements with Britain, New Zealand, and Oman (oh-MAHN). After almost 20 years of talks, the deal opens India’s market, the world’s largest, to free trade with the EU, its largest trading partner. 

Clean Fuels Conference: “Unity Drives Growth”

The foundation is strong for expanding biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel in the U.S. However, to build on the growth of recent years, producers and stakeholders have to remain united. That’s according to Clean Fuels Alliance America CEO Donnell Rehagen, who shared that message with attendees at the Clean Fuels Conference in Orlando, Florida. Clean fuel producers persevered through a year that saw slower production amidst unsettled regulations, including questions about the 45Z tax credits and the possibility of Renewable Fuel Standard exemptions for small refineries. “Positive results from last year showed what happens when we set aside some differences and work together,” Rehagen said. “When biodiesel and renewable diesel producers joined forces with oil and gas refiners who’ve invested in our space, and farmers, when we aligned on RVO goals, we saw something powerful emerge.” 

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

There are no major USDA or macroeconomic reports scheduled to be released on Tuesday. Traders will likely continue to follow weather clues around the globe, as well as watch for reportable export sales from USDA at 8 a.m. CST.

Weather

Overall, Tuesday will be a quiet and cold day as arctic air lingers over much of the country following the weekend's major winter storm. A small clipper will bring some snow through the Great Lakes, however.

Rural Energy Council is a “Disgrace”

Growth Energy, the nation’s largest biofuel trade association, was very unhappy after it was announced that a legislative fix for year-round E15 was dropped from the January government funding bill. It was further incensed that Congress would instead form a “rural energy council” to formulate another compromise bill with petroleum interests, and with expectations for a vote in February. “What an incredible travesty as Congress picked refiners over American farmers and drivers today,” said Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor. “E15 delivers cost savings for consumers and generates long-term demand for American agriculture, facts that have been well-known for over a decade.” She also said the debate involves the simple act of allowing consumers the choice to buy a better value fuel year-round. This failure will lead to farmers missing out on a critical market during the worst farm crisis in four decades. “It’s imperative we get this over the finish line in an expedited manner,” Skor added.

USDA Launches Portal on Foreign-Owned Ag Land Transactions

The USDA launched a new online portal to streamline reporting of transactions involving U.S. agricultural land by foreign persons, which can include businesses and governments. The new online portal is part of a broader effort to strengthen enforcement and protect American farmland as USDA continues its implementation of the National Farm Security Action Plan. “We’re increasing transparency and scrutiny of one of our most valuable national assets in American farmland,” said Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins. ‘This online portal will allow us to obtain verifiable information about foreign interests in American agricultural land and protect the security of our farmers.” The new online portal is available at usda.gov. Users can access the portal with Login.gov, a sign-in service that provides secure online access to participate in certain government programs and their reporting requirements. The new digital portal will gather the same information found on the current form FSA-153.

National Ag Day Activities Announced

The Agriculture Council of America is proud to announce the celebration of National Ag Day on March 24, 2026. The annual event recognizes and celebrates the abundance provided by agriculture, acknowledging the essential role it plays in our daily lives. This year’s theme is “Agriculture: Together we grow: Celebrating 250 Years of Progress in Agriculture.” This year’s theme emphasizes the collaborative efforts of farmers, ranchers, and all stakeholders in the agricultural sector who work tirelessly to provide safe, abundant, and affordable products, and also recognizes 250 years of progress. A series of events is scheduled in Washington, D.C., and virtually, to mark the day, including an Ag Day Virtual Event. At 9:00 am, a livestream of events from the USDA will be available. Ag Day at the USDA will run from 8:30 am to Noon at the USDA’s Whitten Patio, where attendees will hear from multiple speakers. 

NCBA Accepting Applications for Summer Internships

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association has opened applications for summer 2026 semester internships in the association’s Colorado headquarters and Washington, D.C. office. Internships are available for public policy, and meetings and events. “Since 1898, NCBA has been the trusted leader and definitive voice of the U.S. cattle and beef industry,” said NCBA President-Elect Gene Copenhaver. “NCBA interns directly support the critical work of this association and make sure that our farming and ranching legacy continues into the future, and I strongly encourage young people to get a jump start on their careers.” Public policy interns support NCBA’s Government Affairs Team and will learn more about lobbying, government relations, and advocacy on behalf of the beef industry. The Management and Events interns will learn how to manage large-scale conventions and trade shows, in addition to the logistics behind smaller meetings and conferences.

Ethanol Production Drops from a Record High

The Energy Information Administration said ethanol output dropped during the seven days ending on January 15. Production of the biofuel fell to an average of 1.119 million barrels a day, down from 1.196 million barrels the previous week, which was the highest level since recordkeeping began in 2010. The EIA report said the Midwest, by far the biggest-producing region, output averaged 1.066 million barrels a day, down from 1.139 million during the prior week. Gulf Coast production plunged to 21,000 barrels a day from 27,000 the previous week. EIA said the East Coast output was down by 1,000 barrels a day to 10,000. West Coast production was unchanged at 9,000 barrels a day. Rocky Mountain production was the lone gainer, rising to 11,000 barrels a day. Ethanol inventories through the week of January 16 rose to 25.739 million barrels. That’s up from the prior week, and the highest level since April 11.

December Egg Production Rose Modestly

The USDA said egg output in December rose narrowly year-over-year. A report said last month’s production totaled 9.125 million eggs, up slightly from 9.116 million during the same month in 2024. About 7.818 million of those were table eggs, and the rest were hatching eggs. The number of egg layers averaged about 371.6 million, down from 373 million during the previous year. Production per layer in December was 2,456 eggs, up slightly year over year. About 52.7 million egg-type chicks were hatching last month, up three percent from the prior year, while eggs in incubators on January 1 rose one percent to 53.1 million. Placements of egg-type pullets were up one percent to 218,000. Hatchings of broiler types were reported at 890 million, up one percent from the same month during the prior year. Eggs in incubators at the beginning of January rose two percent to 757 million.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Outside of the normal weekly grain export inspections report at 10 a.m. CST, there are no major reports scheduled for Monday. Traders will continue to follow weather trends, both in the U.S. as well as South America with the next round of world crops beginning to take focus.

Weather

A major winter storm system is leaving off the East Coast early Monday, but arctic cold air is left behind it for those east of the Rockies. Some light snow will be possible with a small clipper moving through the Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday.

No Year-Round E15 in Congressional Spending Bill

After weeks of negotiations, it appears that the House funding bill expected to advance today will exclude language that would have allowed nationwide, year-round access to E15. In place of the year-round E15 provision, Congress appears poised to create a new “Rural Domestic Energy Council” that would develop potential legislative proposals on E15 and other renewable fuels issues that could be considered for future adoption. “We are extremely disappointed that Congress appears to have again failed in adopting a simple technical fix that would have made lower-cost American-made E15 available to consumers nationwide all year long,” said Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association. “Allowing year-round E15 would have provided a lifeline to farmers who are facing the worst economic crisis in almost 50 years, while also helping American families struggling with higher energy bills.” He also pointed out that there was already a compromise deal broadly supported by ethanol and oil refiners in place.

USDA Announces New World Screwworm Grand Challenge

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced the launch of the New World Screwworm Grand Challenge. This funding opportunity marks a pivotal step in USDA’s comprehensive strategy to combat NWS and prevent its northward spread. As part of the Grand Challenge, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service will make up to $100 million available to support innovative projects that enhance NWS sterile fly production, strengthen response strategies, and safeguard U.S. agriculture, animal health, and trade. APHIS invites proposals that support objectives that develop novel NWS traps and lures, develop and increase understanding of NWS therapeutics and treatments for animals, and develop other tools to bolster preparedness or response to NWS. Eligible applicants are invited to submit proposals that align with and support these priorities by the deadline on February 23, 2026. The notice of the opportunity is available on the NWS Grand Challenge webpage. 

Activists Using Misleading Support Letters for Prop 12

The Center for the Environment and Welfare released an analysis of a letter, widely promoted by animal rights operatives on Capitol Hill, signed by “farmers” who support California’s Proposition 12 and oppose a federal fix to the onerous law. Lawmakers are currently considering several pieces of legislation to override the measure. In response, radical animal rights groups continue to highlight a letter allegedly signed by 5,000 “farmers and producers” who support Prop 12. However, CEW’s new analysis suggests the letter is not what it might seem at first. Many of the backers are not pork or egg producers, with some not involved in agriculture at all. The list appears to include over 100 vineyards, 150 honey producers, 25 mushroom growers, eight hemp or marijuana farms, and even a goat yoga operator. “Mushroom farmers, beekeepers, and goat yoga providers are not credible experts on pork policy,” said Jack Hubbard, executive director of CEW. 

Iowa Corn Growers Applaud Carbon Capture Legislation

Mike Klimesh, the Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate, introduced Senate File 2067, which drew applause from the Iowa Corn Growers Association. The bill proposes widening the corridor to find new paths for the carbon capture and sequestration pipeline, relying on eminent domain only after all reasonable alternatives have been exhausted. The Iowa Corn Growers Association applauded the bill for its increased flexibility as Iowa fights to pursue low-carbon ethanol markets. “Iowa’s corn farmers are continuing to see corn prices dropping and input costs rising,” said Iowa Corn Growers President Steve Kuiper (KY-per). “Without access to low-carbon fuels through the carbon pipeline, farmers will lose the ability to participate in new markets, like sustainable aviation fuel or marine fuel, and be forced to watch other states like Nebraska adopt CCS technology.” He also said this bill is a big step in the right direction.

U.S. Soy Exports Continued Growing in Marketing Year 2024-2025

The United States exported 68.7 million metric tons of U.S. soy, which included whole soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, during the marketing year 2024-2025. That represents a 12.8 percent increase year-over-year and a 2.95 percent gain over the five-year average. That’s according to data from the USDA’s Global Agriculture Trade System. “With ample production and supply capacity, the U.S. remains well positioned to meet both domestic and global demand for whole soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil,” said Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council. The top five growth markets for the U.S. Soy complex included Turkey, up 342 percent, Vietnam, up 89 percent, Venezuela, up 68 percent, Colombia, up 48 percent, and Bangladesh, up 40 percent. Sutter said that gains in several markets reflect a mix of improved market access and rising demand for animal protein. 

USDA Announces Grant Funding for Dairy Support

The USDA is awarding more than $11 million in grant funding to support dairy businesses and producers through the Dairy Business Innovation Grant Program. The initiatives support small and mid-sized dairy businesses in the development, production, marketing, and distribution of dairy products. “This funding through the Dairy Business Innovation Initiatives makes important investments in the domestic dairy industry, furthering USDA’s efforts to ensure Americans have access to affordable, wholesome U.S. dairy products,” said Dudley Hoskins, USDA Undersecretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs. This year’s funds will go to four current DBI Initiatives at California State University—Fresno, the University of Tennessee, the Vermont Agency of Agriculture, Food & Markets, and the University of Wisconsin. The initiatives will use the funding to provide valuable technical assistance and sub-award funds to dairy  farmers and businesses across their regions, supporting them with business plan development, marketing, and branding. For more information, go to the AMS Dairy Business Innovation webpage. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

USDA will lead off Friday at 7:30 a.m. CST with the delayed release of export sales data for the week ending January 15. After the close, USDA will release their January Cattle on Feed report at 2 p.m. CST. This will be followed by the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CST to wrap up the week.

Weather

An intense burst of arctic air with some of the coldest air in years has descended into the U.S. on Friday. A system near the California coast will move eastward through the Southwest throughout the day and widespread showers will develop in the southern half of the Plains because of it. This will come as a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow, increasing in intensity overnight and continuing eastward through the weekend. Major impacts to travel, transport, and infrastructure are likely to develop that could linger through next week with the cold air.

U.S. Lawmakers Push for Expanded Farm Aid as Farmers Struggle

Congressional leaders are pressing for expanded federal farm assistance to help producers coping with low commodity prices, rising input costs and ongoing financial stress. Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman and Agriculture Appropriations Chair John Hoeven said this week that the next funding package should build on the USDA’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance to stabilize rural economies through 2026. The proposed expansion would broaden coverage to include prevent-plant acres, expand specialty crop aid and adjust loan limits, advocates said. Farm groups backed the proposal, noting that one-time payments help but don’t fully address long-term cash-flow challenges. Critics argue Congress’ current funding package lacks dedicated additional farm aid, leaving producers vulnerable to credit constraints. The American Farm Bureau Federation called the absence of more support “shocking” amid sustained economic pressures. Farm advocates said timely action is essential as planting season nears, with many producers still reeling from market disruptions and narrow profit margins.

STB Rules Union Pacific - Norfolk Southern Merger Application is Incomplete

The Surface Transportation Board on Jan. 16 unanimously rejected a merger application from Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, ruling that the filing was incomplete because it lacked required information. The railroads submitted the formal application on Dec. 19, 2025. In its decision, the board said it was required to reject the filing “without prejudice,” allowing the companies to submit a revised application that addresses the deficiencies identified by regulators. The board emphasized that its action was based solely on the incompleteness of the initial filing and should not be viewed as an indication of how it might ultimately rule on a revised proposal. The decision does not represent a rejection of the potential merger itself. The STB said applications of this nature must include specific information, which was missing from the Dec. 19 submission. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern were instructed to inform the board by Feb. 17 whether they plan to refile. Any revised application must be submitted no later than June 22, 2026.

Analysis Shows Need for E15 for Iowa’s Corn and Ethanol Industry

Iowa’s corn and ethanol industry faces continued decline without immediate approval of nationwide, year-round sales of E15 gasoline and access to ultra-low carbon fuel markets, according to a new study released by Iowa Corn and the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association. The study comes as farmers confront a corn carryout exceeding 2 billion bushels and rising input costs for fertilizer, seed and machinery. It estimates corn prices at $1.52 per bushel, a level that could force some producers to downsize or leave farming without expanded demand. Iowa remains the nation’s top corn producer and a leading ethanol state, with yields rising about 15% faster than the U.S. average, the study said. However, new markets are critical to sustaining growth. Iowa Corn Growers Association President Mark Mueller said passage of year-round E15 would help stabilize demand but is not enough long term. He said access to ultra-low carbon ethanol markets, including sustainable aviation and marine fuels, depends on investments such as carbon capture and sequestration pipelines. “Without new corn demand, Iowa could face a 1980s-style farm crisis,” Mueller said.

U.S. Export Sales Data Shows Mixed Results, Corn Faces Weakness

Recent U.S. export sales reports show a mixed picture for agricultural shipments, with corn export figures hitting a marketing–year low as soybean and sorghum sales fluctuate. USDA data released this month showed a slump in old-crop corn commitments, though new crop sales still exceed last year’s pace. Despite weak corn numbers, soybean exports have posted stronger weekly shipments, with China, Mexico and other destinations buying significant volumes, according to export reports. Industry analysts said the divergence highlights ongoing demand uncertainty across commodities, as global supply competition and price sensitivity affect U.S. farm goods. Corn producers hope improving demand from Asian buyers and competitive pricing can help reverse the slump, but export pace remains well below ideal for growers dependent on overseas markets.

Corn and Soybeans Show Upside in Market Trading

U.S. corn and soybean futures climbed Wednesday as markets reacted to broader trade optimism and technical buying, with soybeans notably rising 11 cents. Traders said improved demand signals from export news, particularly China’s fulfillment of soybean purchases, helped lift sentiment. Corn futures also edged higher, supported by export sales reports showing stronger commitments to several destinations and seasonal crop inspection data. Market analysts cautioned that prices remain volatile, sensitive to global weather patterns, currency movements and trade policy shifts that could quickly alter outlooks. Despite the uptick, overall export sales volumes for the marketing year remain mixed, leaving producers watching closely for sustained buyer interest.

Food Policy Tracker Highlights Growing Agriculture Policy Activity

A new Civil Eats Food Policy Tracker report this week underscored the flurry of federal actions shaping U.S. food and agriculture policy, including dairy, nutrition and farm support initiatives. The tracker catalogs policy shifts such as changes in school dairy standards, nutrition guidelines and evolving farm safety-net programs, offering stakeholders a comprehensive view of current trends. Experts say such transparency is key for producers and consumers navigating the complex intersection of health, agriculture and economics. A surge in legislative and executive activity reflects growing attention to food affordability, nutrition and agricultural sustainability amid broader economic pressures. The tracker also highlights state-level debates over farmland taxation and conservation, indicating that agriculture policy is increasingly a multi-layered issue across the U.S.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Reports for Thursday will lead off with the Petroleum Status report from the Energy Information Administration at 9:30 a.m. CST, which will include last week's ethanol production. At around noon, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange will release their weekly crop update, which will be interesting given the recent dryness in Argentina. Later in the afternoon at 2 p.m. CST, USDA will release both their weekly slaughter report and monthly slaughter (December) report.

Weather

Some showers are ongoing over the Southeast with lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Thursday morning. But an intense arctic cold front is dropping south into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest and will spread southward throughout the day. Though it will not create much precipitation, a sharp drop in temperature will be noted. This front will set up a significant winter storm for the southern half of the country starting on Friday.

China Meets U.S. Soybean Purchase Pledge

China has purchased about 12 million metric tons of soybeans. Three traders told Reuters that the total meets a U.S.-stated pledge to purchase that amount by the end of February. “The 12-million-ton target was met last week after bulk purchases by state buyer Sinograin and state trader COFCO, which were the only buyers of U.S. soybeans,” Reuters reported. “Private crushers continued to favor cheaper supplies from Brazil and Argentina.” Bloomberg agrees that the current total reflects continued bookings by state-owned firms in recent weeks. The USDA’s export data, which lags behind real-time totals, put China’s total purchases at just over eight million tons as of January 8. Hitting the 12-million-ton target will likely boost trader and exporter confidence that China could also meet the broader goal outlined by the White House of buying at least 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans through 2028. 

SNAP to be a Huge Issue in the Midterm Elections

The Democratic Party is previewing this year’s mid-term elections by highlighting the continued importance of food aid, affordability, the job market, and the health of local economies. A report from Politico said that over 22 million households will lose SNAP benefits under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. “On the one-year anniversary of Donald Trump taking office for his second term, families everywhere have been devastated by Trump’s tariffs and the Big Ugly Bill,” said DNC spokesman Abhi Rahman. “Trump has sacrificed families who need critical food assistance to put dinner on the table to line the pockets of his billionaire backers.” Research compiled by the Democratic National Committee said the states projected to have the most families losing SNAP benefits include California, New York, and Florida. The report warned of spillover damage to farmers and grocers, such as reduced food purchases and a reduction in local employment

USDA Launches Lender Lens Dashboard

USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden unveiled the Lender Lens on the Rural Data Gateway. This dashboard will make Rural Development’s entire commercial guaranteed loan portfolio available to the public, guaranteed borrowers, and commercial lending stakeholders. Lender Lens will give communities a clear view into where federal investments are being made by introducing a series of intuitive data visualizations that allow users to monitor performance, spot trends, and proactively manage their Rural Development loan guarantee portfolio. The dashboard showcases key metrics, including total loan volume, average loan size, loan distribution by sector, geographic spread, and delinquency rates, allowing an at-a-glance look at nationwide activity. Data is refreshed monthly and can easily be downloaded down to the individual loan, giving users timely, flexible access to the information they need. Learn more at rd.usda.gov.

Sheep Officials Meet with USDA on Assistance

Last week, producers and staff from the American Sheep Industry Association met with USDA Undersecretary for Farm Production and Conservation Richard Fordyce. They advocated for the inclusion of wool under the Farmer Bridge Assistance program. Eleven of the $12 billion set aside in the program will go to traditional row crop commodities, and the remaining $1 billion is set aside in reserves for uncovered commodities like specialty crops and sugar, but will exclude livestock and meat products. During the meeting, ASI provided testimony, and the discussion helped USDA better understand the market disruption and high harvesting costs facing the U.S. wool industry with the persistently low prices sheep producers have experienced since 2019. USDA indicated that wool will be considered within the competitive reserve for uncovered commodities, but no decisions have been made at this time. Fordyce did say that additional information can be expected in the coming weeks. 

Ethanol Industry Partners Meet Officials in Canada

U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council Chair Mark Wilson and President Ryan LeGrand recently traveled with Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor and Renewable Fuels Association President Geoff Cooper to Ottawa, Canada. The group met with government officials and other energy and transportation sector leaders. “Canada is one of U.S. agriculture’s most important export markets, with room to continue growing, especially in biofuels,” said Wilson. “Both Emily and Geoff brought their expertise and outlooks on the state of U.S. ethanol production, and I think we made an impression that our industry is ready to meet any and all increases in Canada’s biofuel production.” Conversations covered the human and environmental benefits of ethanol and biofuels’ role in uplifting producers and the broader agricultural community. “There are so many factors that make Canada such a vital market for our producers, ranging from sheer demand to its proximity to key growing regions,” said LeGrand. 

The Largest U.S. Landowner is…?

There’s a new number one on the list of the nation’s largest landowners in the United States. If you don’t recognize the name Stan Kroenke (KRAHN-key), you’re likely familiar with at least one of the sports teams he owns: The NBA’S Denver Nuggets, the NFL’s Los Angeles Rams, and the NHL’s Colorado Avalanche. The sports and entertainment mogul now owns about 2.7 million acres of private land, consisting mostly of cattle ranches. That’s according to the new Land Report 100 list. The Emmerson family, owners of Sierra Pacific Industries, owns 2,440,000 acres. John Malone, Liberty Media Chairman Emeritus, has 2,200,000 acres. CNN founder Ted Turner owns an even 2,000,000 acres, and the Reed family, forestry business owners, have 1,615,000 acres to round out the top five. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Wednesday is another slim day for scheduled ag related reports, but USDA will release their Bioenergy Statistics update at 1 p.m. CST which offers an interesting look into recent biofuel production and subsequent crop demand from that sector. Otherwise, after a volatile session on Tuesday, equity and other outside markets will be tuned in to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland where President Trump is scheduled to speak on Wednesday amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and EU over Greenland.

Weather

A pair of clipper systems are moving through the northern tier of the country on Wednesday. Light snow stretches from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes Wednesday morning while moisture coming up from the Gulf of America is producing some scattered rain in the Delta. Everything will shift eastward throughout the day. Some breezy winds will accompany the second clipper across the Northern Plains as well.

Bayer Statement on Supreme Court Case

The U.S. Supreme Court will review the Durnell Roundup case. Monsanto had petitioned the court to hear Durnell in April 2025. The company asked the Court to address the split in authority among federal circuit courts on the application of federal preemption, a cross-cutting issue in the Roundup litigation. The company expects a decision on the merits during the Court’s 2026 session, which ends in June. “The Supreme Court decision to take the case is good news for U.S. farmers, who need regulatory clarity,” said Bayer CEO Bill Anderson. “It’s also an important step in our multipronged strategy to significantly contain this legislation.” Anderson also said it’s time for the U.S. legal system to establish that companies should not be punished under state laws for complying with federal warning label requirements, as every leading regulator in the world has concluded that glyphosate-based herbicides can be used safely. 

Chicken Demand Keeps Rising

The U.S. chicken industry is on a decades-long winning streak. Steady growth in consumer demand, coupled with efficiency gains in broiler production have powered the sector’s remarkable growth during the last thirty years. According to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, the near-term outlook for broiler production remains exceptionally strong. But the opportunities for increasing output are becoming more limited. Higher capital costs, tight labor availability, and increased local regulation have stalled site expansions. Chick availability has trended downward as genetic priorities have shifted from hatchability to meat yield, and adding more pounds per bird has its limits. “The potential long-term challenge becomes how big is too big for birds on the processing line, and what will drive consumer preferences for chicken products into 2030 and beyond,” said Brian Earnest, lead animal protein economist at CoBank. With a change in genetics, producers can now get over 1,000 pounds of chicken from a single egg-laying hen. 

Ag Groups Sound Alarm About Farming Future

Agriculture groups sounded the alarm about the economic crisis in rural America in a letter sent today to Congress. Fifty-six organizations representing a cross-section of agriculture signed the letter, sending a strong message to Congress. The letter describes an existential threat looming over many farms, stating that, “America’s farmers, ranchers, and growers are facing extreme economic pressures that threaten the long-term viability of the U.S. agriculture sector. An alarming number of farmers are financially underwater, farm bankruptcies continue climbing, and many farmers are having difficulty securing the financing they need to grow a crop this year.” The letter also said that for the last three or four years, the reality of record-high input costs and rapidly declining and historically low crop and specialty crop prices has culminated in negative farming margins and losses approaching $100 billion nationwide. Losses for commodity crops and specialty crops remain deep, and the gap needs to be closed. 

RFA Comments on Proposed Clean Fuel Regulations in Canada

In comments submitted last week to Environmental and Climate Change Canada, the Renewable Fuels Association expressed strong support for Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations and shared its view on potential amendments to the program. The comments responded to a December discussion paper that laid out potential targeted amendments meant to “strengthen resiliency and support of the development of Canada’s low-carbon fuel sector, while maintaining the Regulations’ primary focus on lowering GHG emissions and transitioning to a low-carbon economy.” Specifically, the RFA voiced its support for the potential addition of a CFR compliance credit “multiplier” for low-carbon fuels made in Canada as a means of harmonizing biofuel production incentives on both sides of the border. “The credit multiplier, which acts as an incentive, is a market-based, flexible approach that prioritizes logistical and economic efficiency and protects consumers from the potential for higher fuel prices,” said RFA General Counsel Edward Hubbard, Jr.

1890 Scholars Program Applications Open

The USDA is now accepting applications for the USDA 1890 National Scholars Program, which aims to encourage students at the nation’s land-grant universities to pursue careers in food, agriculture, and natural resource sciences. The application deadline is March 8, 2026. Students around the country are invited to compete and submit their applications through an online application portal. The USDA 1890 National Scholars Program is available to eligible high school seniors entering their freshman year of college who will attend one of the 1890 land grant universities and pursue degrees in agriculture, food, natural resources, or related academic disciplines. The program is also open to rising college sophomores and juniors who meet the same criteria. “Our land-grant universities are critical in educating the next generation of agriculturalists, and the USDA 1890 National Scholars Program supports this effort by providing students with more real-world work experience and support for their education,” said Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins. 

Farm Credit Applauds Push for Additional Farm Assistance

Farm Credit Council President and CEO Christy Seyfert made a statement after Senate agricultural leaders called for expanded agriculture assistance in the upcoming continuing resolution. “Farm Credit thanks Chairmen Boozman (BOZE-man) and Hoeven for championing expanded agriculture assistance,” Seyfert said. “Many row crop and specialty crop producers continue to struggle because of economic and weather pressures outside their control.” Seyfert also affirmed that the proposal will help farmers and ranchers until updated Farm Bill programs take effect this Fall. “Further, including increased FSA loan limits is an important step in ensuring farmers and ranchers can access credit to survive this downturn and expand their operations in the Future.” She also said Farm Credit has supported increasing these loan limits since the beginning of the Farm Bill process. Farm Credit also appreciates the Senators’ work on this vital provision and looks forward to working with FSA in leveraging this enhanced tool to strengthen farmers, ranchers, and rural communities.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Tuesday will be a fairly quiet day for reports with the weekly Grain Export Inspections report set for a 10 a.m. CST release following Monday's holiday. USDA will also release its monthly Chickens and Eggs report at 2 p.m. CST. Otherwise, the market will be paying close attention for any field level reports after a weekend of cold temperatures across the U.S. wheat belt with another burst of cold forecasted for later this week as well.

Weather

A clipper system is moving into the Northern Plains Tuesday morning and will spread light snow across the North-Central states throughout the day. Another clipper is following closely behind it, getting into the Canadian Prairies Tuesday night.

Brazil Passes U.S. as Top Beef Producer

Market estimates show that Brazil surpassed the U.S. as the world’s number one beef producer in 2025. Reuters said that happened after Brazil beat output forecasts by hundreds of thousands of tons, easing a global supply squeeze and helping limit a surge in meat prices. Reuters said Brazil was already the biggest beef exporter, with shipments totaling almost $17 billion in 2025. “Beef production numbers are not due till February, but analysts have recently raised their estimates,” Reuters reported. “Farmers are sending more animals to slaughter and cashing in on high export demand from countries like China and the U.S., where low beef supplies have pushed prices to record levels.” Bloomberg also that said beef demand has stayed resilient, despite high prices, and the Trump administration’s overhaul of dietary guidelines putting protein at the top of the food pyramid will likely encourage Americans to buy more meat.

Trump Signs Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act

President Donald Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act on Wednesday. He was joined by Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. The legislation aligns with the recently-released Dietary Guidelines for Americans, which reintroduced full-fat dairy as part of a healthy dietary pattern. “This bipartisan solution for school meals alongside the newly released Dietary Guidelines for Americans reinforces what families already know,” said Rollins. “Nutrient-dense foods like whole milk are an important part of a healthy diet.” USDA implementation begins immediately. Following the announcement, USDA issued program implementation guidance to school officials to implement the bill, and a proposed rulemaking will soon commence to ensure schools and nutrition programs can begin offering whole milk as quickly as possible. USDA will also undergo a rewrite of Child Nutrition Programs to ensure school meals are aligned with the new dietary guidelines.

Positive Reaction to Whole Milk Returning to Schools

President Donald Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act into law this week. Agriculture groups like the National Milk Producers Federation were pleased with the move, noting that dairy farmers and their cooperatives couldn’t be more thrilled that whole and 2% milk will return to school meals. “Dairy is a nutrition powerhouse that should be used to its fullest potential,” said NMPF President and CEO Gregg Doud. “That means making sure it’s available in the same varieties that families consume at home.” He also said the Federation is ready to help schools and USDA in any way it can as this important legislation gets implemented in schools across the U.S. “We thank President Trump and his administration, our advocates on Capitol Hill, and everyone who’s worked to make school meals better through increased access to dairy,” Doud added.

U.S. Sales of Ag Tractors, Combines Decline in December 2025

New data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers said sales of ag tractors and combines in the U.S. fell in December 2025 compared to the same time last year. U.S. sales of total ag tractors dropped by 15 percent, while sales of combines declined 4.3 percent in December 2025 compared to the year before. Also, Canadian sales of ag tractors were down almost 14 percent, while combine sales jumped by 26 percent in December compared to the prior year. ”December’s data is the result of economic instability and pressures farmers have been facing for the past several months,” said Association of Equipment Manufacturers Senior Vice President Curt Blades. “Throughout this short-term decline in sales, equipment manufacturers remain committed to supporting farmers with the equipment they need.” Looking ahead to the rest of 2026, AEM remains confident in the industry’s resilience and unique ability to adapt. 

NCBA Announces Scholarship Winners

Shelley Currey of Kenard, Texas, and Sydney Bowman-Schnug of Fort Lupton, Colorado, were each awarded a $15,000 W.D. Farr Scholarship by the National Cattlemen’s Foundation. The annual scholarship program recognizes outstanding graduate students for their academic achievements, leadership, and commitment to the advancement of the beef industry. Curry is a fourth-generation rancher and a PhD candidate at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “This scholarship will provide critical support to further my education and research and will allow me to share my findings at national scientific conferences,” Currey said. Bowman-Schnug is a PhD candidate at Colorado State University. “It will make a monumental difference in my pursuit to further the future of the cattle industry,” said Bowman-Schnug. The scholarship honors the successful career of the late W.D. Farr, a third-generation Colorado native, rancher, statesman, and banker known for his extraordinary vision.  

Radicle Growth Launches the Radicle Corn Challenge

Radicle Growth announced the launch of the Radicle Corn Challenge, sponsored by U.S. Corn Farmers. The contest is a global call for startups developing technologies that create new, durable demand for corn through innovative products, materials, and value chains. The Challenge will invest a total of $1.75 million in selected companies and is supported by 12 leading U.S. corn grower organizations. “Corn has long been a foundational feedstock for food, feed, and fuel,” said Kirk Haney, Managing Partner at Radicle Growth. “The next opportunity is expanding how corn is used across new products and markets, and we’re looking to support companies that can translate innovation into real-world demand.” The Challenge seeks applications from startups and growth companies working on technologies that convert corn and corn-derived streams into higher-value products. For more information or to apply for the Radicle Corn Challenge, go to radicle.vc.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Friday isn't scheduled to feature many significant reports, but in the afternoon the USDA Economic Research Service will release their monthly Livestock outlook at 2 p.m. CST. Then at 2:30 p.m. CST, CFTC will release their weekly Commitments of Traders report, with position data as of Tuesday, January 13.

Weather

A clipper system is moving into the Great Lakes on Friday. To go along with areas of snow showers, some of which will be enhanced near the Great Lakes, strong winds have developed in the Plains that will relax overnight. Sub-freezing temperatures can be found throughout a lot of Florida Friday morning as well.

Farmland Values Enter a New Phase

The U.S. agricultural land market is shifting after years of steady growth. Although land values are still historically high, current signs indicate a more complex situation driven by local and regional factors rather than nationwide trends. “After years of steady growth, we’re seeing the farmland market stabilize,” said Colton Lacina (lah-SEE-nah), senior vice president of real estate options at Farmers National Company. “This isn’t a sign of collapse but a recalibration that reflects current commodity prices, input costs, and regional production conditions.” Farmland demand now varies widely by location. Areas with high crop yields, diversified farms, and dependable groundwater continue to attract buyers and maintain steady values. “Farmland values are increasingly determined locally, sometimes down to the township,” Lacina added. “Buyers are carefully assessing soil quality, the percentage of tillable acres, water access, and how a parcel fits into their operations.” Despite mixed signals, market conditions still remain favorable for most sellers. 

Rollins Makes Important Announcements at the AFBF Annual Convention

During the Farm Bureau’s annual convention, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced expanded enrollment for the 2026 Dairy Margin Coverage Program. Producers can now enroll in the DMC, with the signup ending on February 26, 2026. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act reauthorized the DMC for calendar years 2026 through 2031 and provided substantial program improvements, including establishing production history and increasing Tier 1 coverage from five million to six million pounds. All dairy operations enrolling in DMC for 2026 will establish a new production history. Rollins also announced the intent to purchase up to $80 million in specialty crops from American farmers and producers to distribute to food banks and nutrition assistance programs across the country. The Agricultural Marketing Service will purchase commodities like raisins, almonds, grape juice, and pistachios. The goal of the purchases is to support American agriculture, rural communities, and those in need of nutrition assistance. 

RFA: More Urgency About Approving Year-Round E15

The USDA confirmed that farmers harvested a record-large crop in 2025, estimated at over 17 billion bushels. Corn stockpiles are also expected to climb to their highest level in eight years, driving corn prices lower. The Renewable Fuels Association said this underscores the pressing need to eliminate the obstacles that are suppressing demand and limiting market opportunities for corn and ethanol alike. “This is a sobering wakeup call about the farm economy and underscores the need for lawmakers to take immediate action to expand markets for American corn growers,” said Geoff Cooper, RFA President and CEO. “The fastest and easiest way to shore up the growing supply-demand imbalance in the corn market is to permanently remove the summertime barrier on E15 sales and eliminate obsolete fuel retail infrastructure rules.” He also said these decades-old regulatory barriers are literally choking off demand and shortchanging America’s farmers. 

Lawmakers Want Expedited Processing of Farmer Assistance

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), ranking member of the Senate Ag Committee, led 11 of her colleagues in pushing Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins to expedite and increase payouts in disaster and economic assistance programs. They’re pressing for a faster payout because of the numerous headwinds challenging them. “As farmers face continued trade uncertainty, rising input costs, and natural disasters, we encourage you to speed up the economic disaster assistance that will benefit all farmers, including specialty crop growers,” the Senators wrote in a letter to the Secretary. “While significant assistance flowed quickly to farmers in the summer and fall, payments were limited to 35 percent of approved applications.” They also said, as a result, less than $6 billion out of the $16 billion available has been paid out to farmers more than a year after Congress provided the funds and nearly three years after some farmers faced losses. 

Farm Bureau Establishes 2026 Policy Priorities

Farmer and rancher delegates to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s 107th annual convention adopted several policies to guide the organization’s work in the new year. Delegates adopted policy to improve labor programs to meet the needs of America’s farmers and ranchers, including formalizing support for the new Adverse Effect Wage Rate methodology, and further revisions to avoid unpredictable rate swings in the future. They voted to support federal funding for research and biosecurity facilities to better identify and combat illnesses and pests threatening crops and animals. The new policy also includes committing more resources to combat the advance of the New World Screwworm in Mexico and keeping the U.S.-Mexican border closed until the pest is controlled. Delegates also revised the national farm policy to provide more protection for dairy farmers who may suffer losses due to market challenges. President Zippy Duvall and Vice-President Scott VanderWal  were also unanimously re-elected to two-year terms.

Nominations Open for Caregiver Awards

Those in the pork industry recognize animal care is central to everything, and it’s the people who make the difference. This year, Zoetis (Zoh-EH-Tiss) is recognizing individuals who exemplify everything that’s good about the pork industry through their passion and dedication. Nominations are open for the 2026 Caregiver Awards and close on March 14, 2026. “In an industry that balances animal well-being, people, and production every day, there are countless champions quietly showing up to do what’s right,” said Wes Lack, national sales director for Zoetis U.S. Pork. “Through the Caregiver Awards, we’re proud to celebrate the individuals who make the industry better one animal at a time.” The Caregiver Awards will honor exceptional caregivers across three categories, including “Caring is Job One,” “The Power of Teamwork,” and “Inspiring the Future.” To nominate a caregiver, visit zoetisus.com. 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Grain market news will get an early start on Thursday with the release of Conab's (Brazil) January crop report at 6 a.m. CST, which will give another look at estimates for 2026 crops in Brazil following USDA's updates on Monday. Later on, USDA will release their weekly export sales report, out at 7:30 a.m., including data up to the week ending January 8.

Weather

A system is finally moving off the Coast on Thursday, but another is moving down from Canada as a clipper to take its place. Areas of snow will spread through the Canadian Prairies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest throughout the day. In addition, very strong winds are forecast for the northern half of the Plains especially, where gusts may exceed 60 mph later Thursday and Thursday night.

Food Price Index Drops in December

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index averaged 124.3 points in December 2025, down 0.8 points from November. Declines in the prices for dairy products, meat, and vegetable oils more than offset increases in cereals and sugar. The index stood three points (2.3 percent) below its level the previous year and as much as 35.9 points (22.4 percent) below the peak reached in March 2022. For the year, the 2025 index averaged 127.2 points, 5.2 points higher than the 2024 average. The biggest jump took place in the Sugar Index, which averaged 90.7 points in December, up 2.1 points from November. The biggest drop happened in the Dairy Price Index, which dropped by 5.9 points in December. The Meat Index averaged 123.6 points in December, down 1.7 points from its revised November value. The Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 164.6 points in December, a drop of only 0.4 points from November.

Corn Growers Alarmed by New Supply Projections

The USDA released its January WASDE Report, which projected a 17-billion-bushel corn supply in 2025-2026, raising alarms among the nation’s corn growers and triggering an immediate market reaction. If the projections prove accurate, this year’s crop will be the largest on record by far. The surplus supply promises to keep corn prices low as farmers struggle to pay higher input costs. “We need long-term market solutions, and we need them quickly, or this is going to deepen the economic crisis in the countryside,” said Jed Bower, president of the National Corn Growers Association. “The urgency for Congress and the president to open new markets abroad and expand consumer access to ethanol just increased exponentially.” Bower also noted that an immediate boost to demand would be the passage of legislation authorizing year-round consumer access to fuels with a 15 percent ethanol blend. He said this solution could use 2.4 billion additional bushels of corn annually. 

Wheat Growers Applaud Moving Food for Peace to USDA

National Association of Wheat Growers CEO Sam Kieffer issued the following statement in response to the news that the State Department and USDA reached an Interagency agreement allowing USDA to operate the Food for Peace Program. Kieffer said the Food for Peace Program has embodied the best of American leadership for decades, delivering life-sustaining food around the world while supporting American farmers at home. “We’re thrilled to see this agreement between USDA and the State Department and thank the administration for initiating this common-sense move,” said Kieffer. “Having USDA manage Food for Peace strengthens the program’s stability, ensures continued market opportunities for American-grown crops, and safeguards in-kind food aid for the people around the world who need it the most.” Kieffer also said the agreement provides near-term certainty, and his group is calling on Congress to pass legislation permanently transferring Food for Peace to the USDA. 

Weekly Export Inspection Up Across the Board

The USDA said inspections of corn, soybeans, and wheat for export all rose week to week during the seven days ending on January 8. Corn inspections improved to 1.49 million metric tons from 1.32 million a week earlier. The agency report said that’s higher than the 1.44 million tons that were inspected during the same week last year. Soybean assessments were reported at 1.53 million metric tons, up from just over 984,000 tons the previous week and the 1.36 million tons inspected at the same point last year. Wheat examinations for overseas delivery jumped to 317,400 metric tons, up from 183,000 the previous week. That was narrowly higher than the total inspected during the same week a year earlier. Since the start of the marketing year, USDA has inspected 28.4 million metric tons of corn for export, 17.9 million metric tons of soybeans, and wheat assessments since the start of the marketing year totaled 15.6 million metric tons. 

Agri Stats Settles Price-Fixing Lawsuit

Agricultural data firm Agri Stats has agreed to settle a federal antitrust class-action lawsuit accusing it of helping major U.S. meat processors suppress worker wages by sharing confidential compensation data. The proposed settlement, filed last week in Colorado, still requires a judge’s approval. The lawsuit was brought on behalf of tens of thousands of red meat processing workers employed at about 140 plants nationwide. Workers allege that leading processors engaged in a years-long conspiracy to keep wages low, violating federal antitrust law by exchanging sensitive pay information through Agri Stats. Under the agreement, Indiana-based Agri Stats will not pay into a settlement fund but agreed to cooperate with plaintiffs and change how it reports certain labor-related data. The company denied wrongdoing, saying the settlement avoids the cost and burden of prolonged litigation. Since 2022, workers have secured more than $200 million in settlements from major processors, including Tyson Foods, JBS, and Cargill.

House Passes Africa and Haiti Trade Preference Programs

The House of Representatives passed a three-year extension of preferential trade programs for sub-Saharan Africa and Haiti. The legislation, passed by a strong bipartisan vote, lowered trading barriers for emerging economies. Lawmakers voted 340-54 in favor of renewing the African Growth and Opportunity Act. They also passed the Haiti Economic Lift Program Extension Act 345-45. Both programs expired on September 30, 2025. The programs provide duty-free access to the U.S. market for a wide range of goods, including apparel, from Haiti and more than 30 African countries. Politico said Representative Jason Smith (R-MO) said the U.S. still needs a much-longer-term extension of AGOA, but the current reauthorization provides a much-needed level of stability and certainty in the near term, so that Congress can continue to work on future reforms and strengthen a number of U.S. priorities in the African continent. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

On Wednesday morning at 7:30 a.m. CST, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the delayed Producer Price Index report for November 2025. At 9:30 a.m. CST, the Energy Information Administration will release their weekly Petroleum Status report including last week's average ethanol production. Finally, in the afternoon at 2 p.m. CST, the USDA ERS will release their monthly commodity outlooks for grains and oilseeds.

Weather

A system in the Great Lakes is bringing down some colder air from Canada, leading to areas of showers for the eastern half of the country that includes lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes. For some areas, Wednesday's high temperatures occurred at midnight and will be falling throughout the day.

ARC/PLC Enrollment Delayed Until After Planting

Enrollment for the USDA’s ARC and PLC Programs will not open until after the 2026 planting season. AgroLatam said the announcement comes as USDA readies a 61-page final rule implementing updates required by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025. Key changes include higher PLC reference prices, a 90 percent guarantee level for ARC, and expanded base acre eligibility for farmers with historically non-program crops. USDA Undersecretary for Farm Production and Conservation Richard Fordyce said the delays are due to the Farm Service Agency workload and the complex nature of implementing the new federally-mandated provisions. According to the rule, farmers will likely know their 2026 production and yields before enrolling in PLC and ARC – a significant shift in timing that could allow more informed decisions but may compress the planning window for each U.S. producer. At the same time, enrollment in the Dairy Margin Coverage began on Monday, January 12. 

Busy Sunday at AFBF National Convention

The American Farm Bureau Convention on Sunday included a rare joint appearance of all four leaders of the congressional agriculture committees to discuss issues important to rural America during the general session. The Senate Ag Committee Chair John Boozman (BOZE-man) (R-AR), Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), the chair of the House Ag Committee GT Thompson (R-PA), and Ranking Member Angie Craig (D-MN) covered priority issues like passing a new five-year farm bill, developing domestic and international markets for ag products, providing access to a stable workforce for farmers and ranchers, and the importance of grassroots involvement in advocacy. Also, during the general session, the late Bill Northey, a long-time agricultural leader from Iowa, was posthumously honored with the Distinguished Service Award. During his keynote address, AFBF President Zippy Duvall challenged attendees to strive for servant leadership, even when there are costs and sacrifices associated with serving.  

Crop Production Report Shows Record-High Corn Harvest

The USDA’s Crop Production Report said the 2025 corn harvest was a record high 17 billion bushels, up 14 percent from the 2024 estimate. The average yield was estimated at a record high of 186.5 bushels per acre, up 7.2 bushels from the previous year. The soybean harvest totaled 4.26 billion bushels in 2025, down three percent from 2024. The average yield was estimated at a record high 53 bushels per acre, up 2.3 bushels from 2024. The all-cotton production number was estimated at 13.9 million 480-pound bales, down three percent from 2024. The U.S. yield was estimated at 856 pounds per acre, down 30 pounds from the prior year. The 2025 sorghum harvest was estimated at 437 million bushels, up 27 percent from the 2024 total. Grain yield was estimated at 72.6 bushels per acre, 11.3 bushels higher than the previous year. Rice production totaled 207 million hundredweight, down seven percent from 2024.

USDA Issues January WASDE Report

The USDA’s January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report said the 2025-2026 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, higher feed and residual use, reduced food, seed, and industrial use, and greater ending stocks. With more supply and less usage, corn stocks rose by 198 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price for producers was raised ten cents to $4.10 per bushel. The U.S. soybean supply was raised by 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean ending stocks rose 60 million bushels to 350 million, and the season-average soybean price for farmers is projected to be 30 cents lower at $10.20 per bushel. The 2025-2026 wheat outlook this month is for slightly larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and larger ending stocks. Projected wheat ending stocks were raised by 25 million bushels to 926 million, up eight percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price dropped by a dime to $4.90 per bushel. 

Compeer Financial Announces New Grant Application Schedule

Compeer Financial has refreshed its corporate philanthropic program under Compeer Giving. The program refocuses its investments in the future of rural communities under three core efforts, including grants, scholarships, and community partnerships. While the complete application schedule is on the Compeer website, grants are available for high school seniors, farmers’ markets, emergency response equipment, county fair facility upgrades, and ACRE (Agriculture Classrooms, Resources, and Equipment) Grants. “The Compeer Giving program breathes new life into our strategic giving and supports Compeer’s vision of creating a world where agriculture and rural communities are dynamic, collaborative, and thriving,” said Karen Scheiler, manager of Compeer Giving at Compeer Financial. She also said Compeer Giving is dedicated to strengthening agriculture and rural communities across its 144-county territory in Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Compeer Giving will support programs and partners aligned with the goals of inspiring youth, enhancing agriculture and the rural workforce, and empowering rural communities. 

Farm Bureau Selects Farm Dog of the Year

Recognizing the vital role that dogs often play on family farms and ranches, Farm Bureau launched the Farm Dog of the Year contest several years ago, which is now a popular feature of the American Farm Bureau’s National Convention. The winner of this year’s award is Max, a four-year-old Border Collie owned by John, Charla, and Brynley Enns of Oklahoma. AFBF, with support from Nestle, picked Max as the winner from among almost 100 entries. Max fills a number of roles on the farm, but his primary occupation is herding cattle. His assistance is valuable for John, who’s disabled and uses a mobility scooter. “I can’t imagine doing this without Max,” said John Enns. “Max is not only a working dog, but also great with the family.” After a long day of herding boisterous cattle on mostly hilly terrain, Max often accompanies John and Charla to pick up daughter Brynley from school.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Reports for Tuesday include the December Consumer Price Index at 7:30 a.m. CST. For USDA reports, Tuesday will naturally be much quieter as compared to Monday's data drop, but USDA will have a series of follow-up information available to the public such as updates to the Feed Grains database and wheat data maintained by the ERS, at 1 p.m. CST.

Weather

A clipper system is moving through the Great Lakes with showers early Tuesday morning. Those showers should spread through more of the Midwest throughout the day as a streak of showers moves from Montana into Nebraska Tuesday and then through the southern Midwest Tuesday night. Temperatures will fall behind this system, but it is still another warm day.

New World Screwworm Detected Near Texas Border, Officials Urge Vigilance

State officials are warning livestock producers after a confirmed case of New World screwworm was found about 215 miles from the Texas border in Tamaulipas, Mexico. The parasitic pest, which can cause serious livestock injury and economic loss, was detected in a 7-year-old bovine, according to the Texas Department of Agriculture. Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller said there’s no evidence the pest has established a breeding population, but producers along the border should inspect animals daily for open wounds and report suspicious cases immediately. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service is collaborating with Mexican animal health officials in monitoring and response efforts, Miller added. While the screwworm hasn’t yet been detected in the U.S., rapid reporting and early intervention remain critical to preventing spread, officials said. Livestock owners are encouraged to review biosecurity protocols and contact vets if concerned.

Uncertainty Grows Over Future of U.S. Farm Bill Legislation

Agriculture policy analysts say 2026 could mark the end of the traditional five-year U.S. farm bill era, as lawmakers struggle to produce comprehensive legislation. The most recent farm bill provisions expired in 2023 and Congress has extended them annually since, leaving perennial programs in limbo. Experts say shifting political priorities and partisan divides have complicated efforts to craft a broad farm policy package that addresses commodity supports, conservation, nutrition and rural development. Without a full farm bill, many programs are funded through short-term fixes, delaying long-term planning for producers. Agriculture advocates warn that prolonged uncertainty could impact crop insurance, disaster assistance and trade programs. Some lawmakers are calling for scaled-down legislation focusing on critical elements, while stakeholders stress the need for stability in federal agricultural policy.

Global Food Prices Dip, but 2025 Still Shows Year-Over-Year Gain, UN Says

World food prices fell for the fourth consecutive month in December, but overall 2025 food costs remained higher than the previous year, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization reported Friday. The FAO’s Food Price Index, which tracks a basket of key food commodities, dropped to its lowest point since January 2025, reflecting easing cost pressures for staples as markets adjusted. Dairy prices led the December decline with a 4.4% drop, driven by increased cream availability in Europe, while meat and cereal prices also pulled back slightly from earlier highs. Despite the recent declines, prices for many categories remained elevated for the full year: dairy up more than 13% and meat up about 5% compared with 2024. Vegetable oil prices stayed at multi-year highs amid tight supplies, and cereal prices rose modestly on concerns over Black Sea export constraints. The FAO said ongoing geopolitical instability and strong global demand continued to influence markets.

Texas Water Shortages Threaten Ag Amid Population Surge, Experts Say

Expanding population and economic growth in Texas are deepening water scarcity concerns that could strain agricultural production, experts told the Texas Plant Protection Association conference this week. With about 1,500 new residents arriving daily, municipal and agricultural water demands are rising sharply, speakers said. Agriculture accounts for roughly half of the state’s water use, and continued growth along the Interstate 35 corridor adds pressure on already stressed supplies. Giovanni Piccinni, director of the Texas Water Resource Institute, called for collaborative solutions that balance urban and farm needs, including improved irrigation efficiency and infrastructure investments. Farmers in West and South Texas are already adapting to reduced allocations, switching to drought-tolerant crops and supplemental water storage. Still, officials say long-term planning is essential to protect the state’s agriculture economy, one of the nation’s largest.

North Dakota Soybeans Find New Markets Abroad, State Leaders Say

Agriculture leaders in North Dakota say growers are tapping new international markets for soybeans after disruptions from the 2025 trade war with China. Officials reported increased interest in North Dakota soy on the global stage, with plans to promote exports to Southeast Asia, including Vietnam and Thailand. Trade delegates from the state are scheduled to visit the region next week to strengthen relationships with buyers and explore opportunities for long-term contracts, according to state agriculture officials. Producers hope the expanded penetration into Asian markets will help offset past volatility caused by geopolitical tensions and tariff barriers, which limited access to traditional customers. Market analysts say broader export diversification could help stabilize prices for soybean farmers and support rural economies. North Dakota remains a leading soybean producer, and agricultural advocates say this push aligns with wider national efforts to expand U.S. agricultural exports.

European Farmers Protest EU Trade Deal with South American Nations

Dozens of French farmers drove tractors into central Paris and blocked major roads Thursday to protest a proposed European Union trade agreement with South American Mercosur nations, saying it threatens local agriculture and could undercut prices for beef, chicken and sugar. Organized by the Rural Coordination farming union, about 100 tractors entered the capital and gathered near landmarks including the Arc de Triomphe and the National Assembly despite a ban on such demonstrations, according to organizers. Farmers say cheaper imports under the EU-Mercosur pact, which would liberalize trade with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, would worsen already tight margins for European producers. French President Emmanuel Macron announced Thursday that France will vote against the deal at EU level, reflecting mounting political opposition at home, though the pact may still move forward with support from other member states. The protests mirrored actions by farmers in Greece, where rural groups blocked highways as part of broader discontent with trade and rising production costs.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Monday's trade will be centered around the release of January reports by USDA at 11 a.m. CST. Reports set for publication include the monthly WASDE, Crop Production (for 2025 corn and soybean harvests), Winter Wheat Seedings, as well as quarterly Grain Stocks which will give estimates of crop inventory as of December 1, 2025. USDA will also release their weekly export inspections report at 10 a.m. CST, but most other news will likely sit in the shadow of the later USDA data which has a historical tendency to be a market mover.

Weather

The week starts off on a largely quiet and warm note. Though a clipper system is moving through the Canadian Prairies on Monday, most of the U.S. will remain dry. Be on the lookout for some showers, breezy winds, and variable temperatures with clippers moving through this week.

U.S. Agriculture Groups React to New Dietary Guidelines for Americans

America’s top agricultural groups reacted to the new Dietary Guidelines for Americans issued by the USDA and Department of Health and Human Services. The Guidelines nearly doubled the recommended amount of protein intake, something that pleased the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. “The new Guidelines help families make the best decisions when shopping for nutrient-rich protein,” said Kim Brackett, NCBA Vice President. Rob Brenneman, President-Elect of the National Pork Producers Council, said he appreciates the guidelines giving pork and other high-protein, nutrient-dense foods their due when it comes to Americans’ diet health. Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, said, “The new Guidelines, as shown by the continued recommendation of three servings a day, show recognition of dairy’s health benefits at all fat levels.” A National Potato Council statement said to see the dietary guidelines now celebrate America’s favorite vegetable represents amazing progress. 

Economists Predict the Farm Economy Will Stabilize in 2026

Agricultural economists are predicting that the slide in the U.S. farm economy will stop in the new year. However, an AgWeb report said that doesn’t mean the ag economy will be whole again. The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor showed monthly sentiment is getting stronger, but there are challenges remaining, especially in the row crop sector. AgWeb said there’s “cautious optimism,” but most economists don’t believe that 2026 will usher in a strong rebound without relief from the high costs of inputs or stronger commodity demand in other markets. Fifty-four percent of the economists surveyed by AgWeb said the economy is better than a month ago. Compared to last year, 42 percent say conditions are worse, and 33 percent say things are better. Looking ahead to the next year, 46 percent expect conditions won’t change, 38 percent expect things to improve, and 15 percent expect economic conditions to get worse. 

Ethanol Blend Rate Tops 11 Percent in October

Ethanol accounted for 11.06 percent of the nation’s gasoline in October 2025, marking the first time in history that the monthly blend rate has topped 11 percent. That’s according to a release from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The Renewable Fuels Association said the record-high blend rate reflects the expanding use of E15 and flex fuels like E85, and should put to rest the myth that the so-called “blend wall” prevents ethanol from making up more than ten percent of the gasoline pool. “The new data provides clear evidence that ethanol is continuing to gain market share in the U.S. fuel market as drivers increasingly choose lower-cost, cleaner-burning E15 and flex fuels like E85,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “The numbers also prove that the fictitious ‘blend wall’ is nothing but an imaginary barrier created by those who oppose American-made renewable fuels produced from American-grown crops.” 

Groups Continue Pushing for Year-Round E15

A coalition of more than 70 biofuel and agricultural organizations sent a letter to congressional leadership calling for immediate passage of legislation to allow the year-round nationwide sales of an American-made E15 fuel blend. It would benefit drivers with savings of ten to 30 cents per gallon and improve markets for American farmers. “The USDA projects a record 16.8-billion-bushel corn harvest in 2025, up roughly 13 percent from 2024, which intensifies pressure on corn prices and farm incomes,” the groups wrote. “Expanding E15 access is one of the most immediate and practical ways to address this imbalance.” The groups point out that when it’s fully-scaled, year-round, nationwide E15 is poised to create new domestic demand for billions of bushels of corn and sorghum, help stabilize markets, support farmers, and deliver consumer savings at the pump. The letter was led by Growth Energy, the American Farm Bureau, the National Corn Growers Association, and the Renewable Fuels Association.

USDA Accepting Applications for Trade Mission to the Philippines

The USDA is still accepting applications for its agribusiness trade mission to Manila, Philippines, taking place April 13–16. U.S. exporters that are interested in exploring trade opportunities in the Philippines’ thriving market and rapidly-growing economy must apply by Friday, January 9. “USDA agricultural exporters have an abundance of new opportunities in the Philippines,” said Luke Lindberg, USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs. “This trade mission will connect U.S. producers with key buyers in the Philippines, expanding economic opportunities, supporting rural prosperity, and keeping American agricultural products globally competitive.” The Philippines is the ninth-largest market for U.S. agricultural and food exports, averaging $3.6 billion annually during the last five years. The trade mission to the Philippines will be timely, as 2026 marks the 80th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. The U.S. is the top supplier of food and beverage products in the Philippines.