Experts Split on China Meeting Soybean Pledge

Commodity experts and ag economists appear split on whether China will actually buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025. Bloomberg said the pledge is underscoring a wider hope in the market that the fragile trade truce can hold on. Traders said commercial and state-owned importers like COFCO (KOFF-coh) will take more shipments in the weeks ahead. Farm Journal’s November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor said more than 75 percent of economists surveyed say China won’t purchase that amount of soybeans this year. Only 24 percent think they will. Arlan Suderman (SOO-der-man), the chief commodities economist at StoneX, said the market is assuming something less than the full 12 million metric ton pledge. “I think the market has priced in expectations of eight to ten million metric tons, and they’ll take it during the marketing year between now and the end of August,” Suderman told Farm Journal.

More Soybean Shipments Heading to China

After a tariff war stalled trade for months, Reuters said shipments of U.S. crops headed to China are picking up in number. At least six large cargo vessels are scheduled to fill up with soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December. A shipping schedule that was seen by Reuters this week said a seventh U.S. soybean cargo was loaded during the previous weekend and is already headed to China, the first shipment since May. While the White House announced that China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of this month, Beijing has yet to confirm any details about potential promises to purchase large volumes of U.S. soybeans. USDA data said Chinese importers booked nearly two million metric tons of U.S. soybeans last month for delivery in the 2025-2026 marketing year that ends in August 2026. U.S. sorghum shipments have also restarted to China.

U.S.-EU Trade Deal Advances

The 27 member-states in the European Union approved the European Commission’s trade agreement with the U.S. However, Mexico Business News said the European Parliament will challenge the elements i considers to be unfair after President Donald Trump tripled tariffs on EU products while Brussels eliminated duties on U.S. imports. In late November, the EU countries agreed to lower tariffs on U.S. imports under a deal struck last summer between the Commission and the White House. Critics said the deal presents multiple disadvantages to EU exports. A proposal to introduce a “sunset clause” that would end the tariff cuts after five years if the deal doesn’t get renewed was debated and eventually shot down in discussions. The Commission said the deal was the “best achievable,” and to reject it would have caused the EU even greater disadvantages. Both the Council and Parliament must agree on the final text by next spring.

Research Shows Stagnant Biosecurity Efforts in Dairy

New research shows that U.S. dairy farmers are more reactive than proactive when it comes to on-farm biosecurity. A Farm Journal survey shows many producers are neglecting the basics, leaving their operations vulnerable to ever-evolving threats. The new research was released this week at the MILK Business Conference. Dairy Herd Management said the study found farm hygiene and herd health aren’t top of mind on all farms. One-third of farms don’t proactively review their biosecurity plans, which indicates a lack of ongoing commitment to their plans or adaptation to threats. The survey did find a bit of good news as 70 percent of the larger dairies said they’re already working on improving their biosecurity programs. While 68 percent of farmers with at least 250 dairy cows report established biosecurity plans, 34 percent admit they don’t review those plans regularly. Over 20 percent neglect to secure access to their barns and housing. 

Sugar Growers Give Back During the Holidays

America’s sugarbeet growers are sharing the spirit of connection during the holiday season in a variety of ways. For example, the Michigan Sugar Company celebrated National Real Sugar Day by volunteering at the company’s annual United Way Sugar Distribution Day, donating more than 57,000 pounds of Real Pioneer Sugar to more than 100 nonprofits, many of them food pantries. The Domino Sugar Refinery of Baltimore launched an Oyster Gardening Program. Oysters act as a natural filtration system to keep water clean. With oyster populations declining, Domino employees lower cages of baby oysters into a nearby river to begin growth. American Crystal Sugar employees in the Red River Valley of Minnesota and North Dakota give five cents for every ton of sugarbeets harvested to local charities where employees live and work. Employee gifts mean over 6,000 families in the Red River Valley will have sugar in their holiday meal boxes this season. 

Farm Equipment Dealer Sues Tractor Manufacturer

Burks Tractor, an Idaho-based dealership, filed a lawsuit against Monarch Tractor of California. The suit accuses the California-based startup of a breach of contract and warranty violations after its tractors failed to operate autonomously. The dealership said the ten tractors it bought via interest-bearing financing for almost $800,000 are defective and didn’t live up to the driver-optional, or autonomous, claims of the company. Burks bought the tractors in early 2024 with the intent of being among the California company’s first retail dealers. Burks said Monarch misrepresented the tractors as fully autonomous and not limited by location or time. An article in Farm Equipment Magazine said Monarch attempted to make the units work autonomously but failed, eventually admitting to the limitations but refusing to take back the defective inventory. A November 19 letter from Monarch Tractor’s HR Department to 102 employees warned of pending layoffs while changing the business to software licensing.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

On Thursday, Statistics Canada will release their final production estimates for 2025 crops at 7:30 a.m. CST. At the same time, USDA will release another delayed export sales report, bringing data forward to the end of October. Also, Thursday will be Day 2 of the DTN Ag Summit, with weather and grain market updates beginning at 9:30 a.m. CST.

Weather

A burst of cold air has moved into the country for Thursday, with morning lows below zero across the Upper Midwest. A system is forming across the South and Southeast that will bring areas of precipitation, including some snow from the Texas Panhandle through portions of Oklahoma. Some snow may mix in Thursday night across the Tennessee Valley as well.

Large 2025 U.S. Corn Crop in Excellent Condition

The U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council’s 2025-2026 Corn Harvest Quality Report contained some good news about this year’s large corn crop. The 15th annual survey showed that the 2025 U.S. corn crop is projected to be the largest on record at 425.53 million metric tons, or 16,752 bushels. The crop is also highlighted by the lowest rate of broken corn and foreign material (BCFM) in the report’s history, a remarkable accomplishment for the entire corn value chain. This year’s crop, on average, is entering the market with characteristics that met or exceeded each grade factor’s numerical requirements for U.S. No. 1 grade corn. The report showed 87 percent of the samples met all grade factor requirements for U.S. No. 1 grade, and 97.8 percent met the grade factor requirements for U.S. No. 2 grade corn. The report is based on 621 yellow corn samples taken from 12 top corn-producing states. 

Future Outlook Drives Farmer Sentiment Higher

Farmer sentiment strengthened in November as rising crop prices and improved export prospects pushed the Purdue University/CME Group’s Ag Economy Barometer to 139, the highest level since June. Much of the increase was driven by a sharp 15-point jump in future expectations, even as current conditions held steady. The Future Expectations Index rose 15 points to 144. Financial outlooks improved alongside a 10-15 percent rally in fall-delivery corn and soybean bids, helping offset weaker cattle prices in the livestock sector. However, producers remain cautious as capital investment slipped further, and fewer farmers say today is a good time to expand. Long-term farmland value expectations reached a record high, while most corn producers anticipate stable cash rental rates heading into 2026. The survey also showed shifting crop production strategies as growers respond to projected tight operating margins, including lower-cost seed traits, reduced phosphorus applications, and adjustments to seeding and nitrogen rates.

India Expects Trade Deal with U.S.

India expects to secure a new trade deal with the U.S. before the end of 2025. Reuters said most issues between the two countries appear to be resolved. The U.S. imposed import tariffs of 50 percent in late August, even as negotiations were ongoing. Earlier in November, President Donald Trump said talks with India’s Prime Minister had been going well. The White House has been pressuring India to reduce oil purchases from Russia and bring down tariffs on multiple sectors, including agricultural trade. India’s trade secretary told industry leaders at a Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry event that a trade framework needs to come first, which is where the countries would address reciprocal tariffs. Any additional issues can be addressed at a political level, and they’re optimistic that a solution will happen before the end of this calendar year. India’s trade deficit with America hit a record high in October. 

Sugarbeet Growers Executive Director Announces Retirement

The American Sugar Beet Growers Association Board of Directors announced the scheduled retirement of Executive Vice President and CEO Luther Markwart on December 31, 2026. “Sugarbeet growers across the country have enjoyed the benefits of Luther’s leadership for over four decades, compiling a long list of achievements for our growers,” said Neil Rockstad, a sugarbeet grower from Minnesota and the president of the ASGA. “Luther has been a consummate professional, leading our industry on a variety of issues to position our multi-generation family farms for future success.” Rockstad also said Markwart will leave behind a legacy of dedicated servant-leadership, defined by hard work and commitment. Markwart will have served with distinction as the association’s CEO for 44 years, in addition to the three years he served as a regional sugarbeet grower representative for Michigan and Ohio. “I’ve worked with some of the finest grower leaders in American agriculture,” Markwart said.

RFA Calls for Reciprocal Tariffs on Chinese Imports

The Renewable Fuels Association thanked the Trump administration for its effort to enforce a 2019 trade agreement with China, noting in comments to the U.S. Trade Representative that China didn’t satisfy its commitments. The RFA says China failed to satisfy its commitment to increase trade in ethanol and distillers’ grains. So, the Association called on the White House to implement reciprocal duties on U.S. imports of Chinese ag products. “We applaud the USTR’s Office for taking a closer look at China’s failure to deliver on its Phase One commitments, which resulted in a lost market opportunity for U.S. ethanol producers and farmers and caused significant financial losses,” said Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the RFA. Cooper added that China purchased only 58 percent of the total U.S. goods and services exports in 2020 and 2021, which it had committed to buy under the Phase One Agreement signed in 2019. 

Corn Inspections for Exports Down Week to Week

USDA says inspections of corn for delivery declined week to week, while soybean assessments improved for the week ending on November 27. Corn inspections during the week fell to 1.42 million metric tons, down from 1.7 million tons a week earlier and well ahead of the 949,000 tons inspected during the same week last year. Soybean examinations for export rose to 920,200 metric tons, up from almost 809,000 the previous week. It was still well below the 2.11 million tons assessed at the same point last year. Wheat inspections were reported at almost 385,000 metric tons, down from the 480,000 metric tons a week earlier, but still ahead of the 299,000 tons examined in the same week during 2024. Since the start of the marketing year, USDA has inspected almost 19 million metric tons of corn for export, and 13.2 million metric tons of wheat, both higher than last year. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

The Energy Information Administration will release their weekly Petroleum Status report at 9:30 a.m. CST which will include last week's ethanol production. Wednesday will also be Day 1 of the DTN Ag Summit, beginning at 9:30 a.m. with updates on this year's America's Best Young Farmers and Ranchers as well as a cattle market update.

Weather

A strong cold front is pushing south through the country on Wednesday. Some limited snow showers are occurring along it, mainly across the Great Lakes and in the High Plains. Temperatures are falling significantly behind it and will continue to spread into Thursday.

Rollins: Farm Aid Expected within Weeks

The Trump administration anticipates it will be ready to announce an aid package for American farmers within two-and-a-half weeks, as well as a deal on Chinese soybean purchases. Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins made the announcement this week but didn’t provide further details. Reuters reported that the administration has said for months it would issue assistance for U.S. farmers ravaged by low crop prices and trade disputes. “We’ll have an announcement probably in the next week or two on what that’s going to look like,” Rollins told CNBC. But AgWeb’s Monthly Monitor found a divided view on the benefits of trade aid. Economists responding to the Monitor agreed on two things. One is that U.S. agriculture has become too reliant on ad-hoc payments. They say repeated aid packages distort land values, cash rents, equipment purchases, and overall decision-making. Number two is that they all agree that aid payments will keep fertilizer prices high.  

The Impact of Tyson’s Beef Plant Closure

Tyson Foods recently announced the shutdown of its beef processing plant in Lexington, Nebraska. The news followed months of losses in its beef division, driven largely by the smallest U.S. cattle herd in decades. Dr. Derrell Peel, a livestock market economist with Oklahoma State University, told the Radio Oklahoma Network that the move wasn’t entirely unexpected. With an additional slowdown at Tyson’s plant in Amarillo, Texas, Peel said the combination represents a seven to eight thousand head per day loss of packing capacity, which is about 7.5 to nine percent of total U.S. packing capacity. The southern plains region is also especially tight due to drought-related issues and the impact of the New World Screwworm, which has restricted the flow of Mexican feeder cattle into the U.S. Peel did say that Tyson heavily invested in updating the Amarillo facility, which means the company likely won’t abandon the beef plant long-term.

Accumulated Exports of Corn and Wheat Rise Annually

The USDA has begun catching up after the government shutdown, releasing the latest available sales data showing exports of corn and wheat as of October 16 were well above year-earlier levels. However, soybean sales, as expected, have plunged compared to last year. Accumulated exports of corn from the start of the marketing year were reported at 10.684 million metric tons, a 58 percent year-over-year increase. Wheat sales from June I through October 16 totaled 11.355 million metric tons, up 23 percent from the same period a year earlier. USDA said soybean sales from September 1 through mid-October came in at 6.726 million metric tons, down 32 percent on an annual basis. Overseas buyer commitments to purchase corn stand at 35.366 million tons, up 37 percent year-over-year. Commitments to buy U.S. wheat from June 1 through mid-October stand at 16.4 million tons, up 22 percent. Soybean commitments are down 38 percent year-over-year. 

Deere Outlook Suggests No Farm Economy 2026 Uptick

Deere and Company’s weak forecast for the year ahead reinforces the difficulty in predicting a level of recovery in the U.S. farm economy. Bloomberg said that’s because uncertainty continues around the impact of tariffs and trade deals. “Shares of the world’s biggest farm machinery maker fell as much as 5.7 percent in New York as the company’s first profit outlook for 2026 fell short of expectations,” Bloomberg said. “The forecast emphasizes how the U.S. agriculture sector remains uncertain even after a U.S. trade agreement with China saw the Asian nation begin buying U.S. commodities again.” Deere also said its net income in fiscal year 2026 would be between $4 billion and $4.75 billion, missing the average Bloomberg estimate of $5.31 billion. It’s also a drop from the $5.027 billion in income reported for the year that just ended. Deere CEO John May believes 2026 will mark the bottom of the ag cycle. 

New Bee Strategy Protects Pollinators and the U.S. Honey Market

Four major North American beekeeping organizations released the first-ever North American Bee Strategy. It’s a coordinated, continent-wide plan to protect honeybees, strengthen the viability of professional beekeeping, and safeguard food security across the U.S. and Canada. The strategy lays out four priorities, including improving monitoring, treatment, and research on pest diseases. It also strengthens honey authenticity standards and enforcement to curb fraudulent imports. “The strategy was built by beekeepers and for beekeepers,” said Matt Mulica of the Honeybee Health Coalition. The four organizations include the American Beekeeping Federation, the American Honey Producers Association, the Canadian Beekeepers Federation, and the Canadian Honey Council. Other priorities include supporting applied research, shared research infrastructure, and streamlined scientific collaboration. The goal is to build a more unified and sustainable honey market across national borders. “This strategy will secure the future of beekeeping,” said Dr. Peter Awram of the Canadian Beekeepers Federation. 

Good News For Nevada Meat Producers

USDA announced that Nevada has met the agency’s rigorous “at least equal to” food safety standard and will be joining the State Meat and Poultry Inspection Program. Nevada’s participation expands local inspection capacity, food safety oversight, and boosts market access for small and very small producers. “The Nevada State Meat and Poultry Inspection Program will significantly expand our local meat processing capacity, strengthen the supply chain, bolster Nevada’s agriculture economy, and ensure greater access to locally-produced food,” said Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo. “This initiative was a priority in my first term, and I look forward to seeing the positive impacts of the program and enjoying our Nevada-raised meat products.” Nevada becomes the 30th state with an approved MPI program, which supports more than 1,500 small processors nationwide with the benefit of state inspection. The Food Safety and Inspection Service will work with stakeholders to ensure a smooth program implementation. 

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Tuesday is a quiet day in regard to scheduled reports but the CFTC will release another delayed Commitments of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CST, with trader position data up to October 21.

Weather

A system continues to push across the Eastern U.S. on Tuesday with scattered showers, including northern snow. Another cold front will drop down into northern areas later Tuesday and spread southward over the following couple of days. Some precipitation will occur with the front, but a push of very cold air will move into the country yet again.

Monday Watch List

Markets

To start the month of December, USDA will release another delayed export sales report for the week ending October 23 (at 7:30 a.m. CST), as well as their normal export inspections report at 10 a.m. CST. Later in the afternoon, USDA will release the first Fats and Oils and Grain Crushings reports since before the government shutdown, updating traders on the pace of soybean crush as well as corn usage for ethanol around the U.S.

Weather

After a weekend that saw heavy snow fall across the Midwest, another storm system will send more streaks of snow from the Central Plains to the Northeast on Monday and Tuesday. A couple of inches of snow are forecast from Kansas through Ohio with a few more in the Northeast on Tuesday. To the south, some heavy rain and thunderstorms will move through.