While U.S. exports in general gained against imports during April, trimming the overall U.S. trade deficit compared with March, U.S. agricultural exports declined in April to $14.5 billion from $15.3 billion in March.
Imports, however, held nearly steady at $14.4 billion after being at $14.6 billion in March. That left agriculture with a surplus of $189 million, down from $774 million in March.
That brings cumulative U.S. agricultural exports so far in Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 to $107 billion against imports of $91 billion for a surplus of $15.7 billion.
For FY 2021, USDA forecasts U.S. agricultural exports to total $164 billion against imports of $141.8 and result in a surplus of $22.2 billion. If USDA's forecast is on the mark, U.S. agricultural exports would have to average just $11.4 billion for the five remaining months of FY 2021 and imports $10.1 billion.
A decline of that degree imports would be somewhat surprising since the value of imports has not been that small since September 2017 while U.S. agricultural exports were under $11 billion for the April-July period in 2020.