FY 2019 US Ag Export Values Off To Slowest Start Since FY 2010

U.S. ag exports totaled $11.277 billion in December against imports of $10.680 billion for a trade surplus of just $597 million. That puts exports for the opening quarter of Fiscal Year (FY) 2019 at $35.648 billion, well below the opening quarter of FY 2018 when exports totaled $39.319 billion and is the smallest opening quarter of an FY since FY 2010 when exports totaled $30.163 billion. Imports, meanwhile, totaled $31.899 billion for the first three months of FY 2019 compared with $30.692 billion in the same period during FY 2018. That puts the cumulative ag trade surplus at $3.749 billion, down from $8.637 billion the first quarter of FY 2018. The troubling aspect of the data is that going back to FY 2013, the strongest months for U.S. ag export values are in the first three months of the FY. Imports, meanwhile, typically do not register their highest values until the March-May period. Imports have opened FY 2019 like they did in FY 2018 – at $10 billion or more each month and they have been at or above that mark 14 of the last 15 months. This means that more downbeat trade data is likely to come for U.S. agriculture in the months ahead.