Washington Insider: Farm Bill Completion Expected Soon

House and Senate Agriculture Committee Chairmen Mike Conaway, R., Texas, and Pat Roberts, R., Kan., and Ranking Members Collin Peterson, D., Minn., and Debbie Stabenow, D., Mich., released a statement Thursday declaring they have "reached an agreement in principle on the 2018 Farm Bill." However, the leaders also said they were working to finalize the legislative language and conference report language and get scores from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). "We still have more work to do," the lawmakers said. "We are committed to delivering a new farm bill to America as quickly as possible." This echoes what some of the panel leaders had been saying the past 24 hours on the matter. Programs covered by the bill include crop subsidies and support to access export markets, areas essential for American farmers, a key constituency of President Donald Trump. Such funding is crucial, various media accounts have said, as farmers suffer from trade wars with key commercial partners such as China. The latest bill, passed in 2014, expired on Sept. 30 after talks over its replacement broke down. At the heart of the debate was whether or not to impose stricter work requirements for recipients of food stamps. With Democrats in control of the House next year, lawmakers were hopeful the deadlock could be resolved, but recently, forestry provisions emerged as a new point of contention, following the deadly wildfires in California earlier this month. Last week USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue said forest management practices need to be "sped up" and he hoped that U.S. agencies could get more authority to do so under a farm bill being debated. "There are things we can do; we need the authority to do that," he said. Interior Department Secretary Ryan Zinke said on Tuesday that the deadliest wildfires in California's history were partly due to lawsuits from environmentalists who have sought to stop forest management practices, such as forest thinning. Environmental groups and many Democrats have opposed some Republican proposals on forestry issues, and worrying that while "the government already has powers to prevent fires under current law, the proposals would increase logging." Roberts said forestry provisions had been dealt with at the leadership level during a meeting late on Tuesday, but declined to elaborate on the details. "The paramount issue ... is farmers need a bill, he said. They need certainty and predictability. So if you have a strong feeling about a particular issue that is in second place," he said. So, we will see. It will be important to see the details of just how the administration chooses to deal with the fire protection issue. There are well-tested, fire-fighting authorities and practices in use for each of the main forestry management agencies, especially USDA and the Department of the Interior. Whether these are beefed up some and continue, as they have been in the past, or emphasized and "weaponized" in the ongoing climate change battle remains to be seen. With the announcement by ag panel leaders, it appears enough of these conflicts have been settled, a situation which will be a significant achievement for the administration and for the sector, Washington Insider believes.

Farm Bill Agreement in Principle

An agreement in principle on the farm bill brings the legislation closer to completion, with hopes remaining that Congress can finish the bill this year. The so-called big four of the conference committee announced the agreement Thursday morning. Leaders of the farm bill conference committee, Senators Pat Roberts and Debbie Stabenow, along with Representatives Mike Conaway and Collin Peterson, now wait for cost estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, along with finalizing language. Before the bill is completed, the conference report must be finalized, and both chambers of Congress must pass the bill by the end of the year. Both the House and Senate plan to adjourn in mid-December, wrapping up a busy lame-duck session. The bill is not expected to include strict work requirements under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, according to Politico. Lawmakers also confirmed this week requested last-hour changes to the forestry title by the Trump administration will not be included. However, Stabenow suggested those measures be considered outside of the farm bill during the lame-duck session.

Farm Groups Call for Completion of Farm Bill

With an announced agreement in principle on the farm bill, agriculture groups are calling on Congress to finish the job and pass the farm bill before time runs out this year. The farm bill conference committee announced the agreement Thursday morning that paves the way for a completed farm bill. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall thanked members of the committee and called on the House and Senate to approve the bill once finalized. Duvall says continued access to risk management tools, assistance in foreign market development, and conservation and environmental stewardship programs within the legislation are especially important for farmers and ranchers. More so, he says, the bill “will help provide certainty to rural America at a time when it is much needed.” National Farmers Union President Roger Johnson expressed optimism in the process, noting NFU is optimistic lawmakers have come to terms on a bill that “begins to provide the relief and certainty farmers need amidst struggling markets due to oversupply and trade volatility.”

Trump, China’s Xi, To Talk Trade This Weekend

The long-awaited meeting between President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping (Shee Jihn’-ping) this weekend brings hope of eased trade tensions between the two nations. The two leaders will meet on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Argentina Saturday as agriculture, and other sectors hope the two reach a ”ceasefire” in the tit-for-tat tariff war. Bloomberg News reports such a truce could at the least delay an escalation of the trade conflict. The Trump administration argues any progress would be the result of the pressure Trump as placed on China, being the $250 billion of tariffs, with the threat of more to come. China has retaliated by targeting U.S. agriculture. China is missing allies for the talks, according to Bloomberg, as Larry Kudlow of the Trump National Economic Council said this week “the rest of the world agrees with us,” regarding China’s trade practices.

NCGA Submits U.S.-Japan Trade Objectives

National Corn Growers Association President Lynn Chrisp this week submitted NCGA's negotiating objectives for a United States-Japan Trade Agreement to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Japan is the second largest market for U.S. corn exports, and U.S. corn farmers have been a reliable supplier to the market for more than 50 years, according to NCGA. Chrisp says corn farmers have “long counted on Japan” as a leading export market, a market that the industry has spent decades developing. NCGA has been advocating for a formal trade agreement with Japan for years. NCGA's top priorities for the negotiation are to secure market access for corn amid intensifying competition from other corn suppliers, to improve market access for other corn co-products, and to address technical, sanitary and phytosanitary, and other non-tariff barriers to trade between the parties, allowing for more efficient trade flows.

Bayer to Sell Animal Health Unit

Bayer AG has announced it will exit the animal health business. In a press call Thursday, Bayer CEO Werner Baumann announced that the company would sell its animal health unit, along with consumer brands Coppertone and Dr. Scholl's. The move includes the reduction of 12,000 jobs, globally. Baumann says of the portfolio changes that the decisions "were not made necessary by the recent acquisition. And, certainly not by glyphosate litigation in the United States," referring to the acquisition of Monsanto that closed earlier this fall. Bayer stock has fallen more than 35 percent in the last year. Bayer Animal Health consists of nearly a dozen product lines for pets and farm animals, including the antibiotic Baytril. The North America unit of Bayer Animal Health is located in Shawnee, Kansas, part of so-called Kansas City Animal Health Corridor.

Canada Canola Council Comments on Health Claim for Canola Oil

A health claim approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration makes Canadian canola oil an “attractive choice for quick-serve restaurants and food processors." The Canola Council of Canada says the claim means canola oil provides a high-stability oil that is both low in saturated fat and free of trans fat. The U.S. FDA recently announced that oils containing a high level of oleic acid, such as high oleic canola oil, can now carry the new qualified health claim. The claim is based on a review of the scientific evidence on the cardiovascular benefits of the consumption of oleic acid. The claim states that, "supportive but not conclusive scientific evidence suggests that daily consumption of about 1.5 tablespoons of oils containing high levels of oleic acid, may reduce the risk of coronary heart disease." Canola oil has been eligible to use a similar qualified health claim based on its unsaturated fat content and reduction of the risk of coronary heart disease since 2006.

Montana Farm Bureau pleased with farm bill progress

The Montana Farm Bureau is pleased that farm bill negotiators have reached an agreement in principle regarding the new farm bill. “We applaud the work done on this agreement and are anxiously awaiting the report from the Congressional Budget Office so that this bill can continue to move along,” noted MFBF President Hans McPherson. “We encourage both houses of Congress to approve this bill once it is finalized by House and Senate Ag leaders” The farm bill is essential in providing farmers and ranchers with continued access to risk management tools, assistance in foreign market development, and conservation and environmental stewardship programs. These programs help provide certainty to rural America at a time when it is much needed given the financial challenges so many family farms now face. “Many people don’t realize it but approximately 80 percent of farm bill spending is used for supplemental nutrition programs to help low-income children, families, seniors and military veterans access the high-quality foods produced by farm families,” McPherson said. “Let’s keep the future of food in our country secure because the farm bill is critical to all Americans. Congress needs to give farmers, ranchers and the Americans who depends on its nutrition programs a real Christmas present by passing the farm bill.”

MSU Extension cropping seminars slated for January 7-11 in Golden Triangle

Summary: Seminar topics will include paraquat safety, herbicide resistance, pulse marketing, and crop rotations. BOZEMAN -- Montana State University Extension will host a free, annual cropping seminar series January 7-11 in Fort Benton, Stanford, Havre, Chester, Shelby, Cut Bank, Conrad, Choteau, and Great Falls. Speakers will cover paraquat safety, cropping systems, pest management, integrated weed management, herbicide resistance, marketing, and risk management. Cecil Tharp, MSU Pesticide Education Specialist, will present the history of paraquat poisonings, toxicity of paraquat, symptoms of exposure, adequately protecting individuals using personal protective equipment and new EPA mitigation measures regarding applicators using paraquat. Patrick Carr and Jed Eberly from the MSU Central Agriculture Research Center will focus on using diverse cropping systems as a way to manage pests (disease, insect, and weeds) and enhance long-term farming sustainability of dryland agriculture in Montana. Discussion will include the diversity of cropping systems and how they can be used to improve soil health which, in turn, improves the resiliency of Montana crop production enterprises. Tim Seipel, MSU Plant and Agriculture Ecology Research Scientist, presentation will focus on integrated weed management and herbicide resistance. Integrated weed management allows the producer to design their weed management program around what is most effective for the particular weeds, crop, and farm operation. This seminar will cover important aspects of integrated weed management in the semi-arid systems. The evolution of herbicide resistance in weeds in challenging weed management in no-till systems. This seminar review herbicide resistance, herbicide resistance in Montana, and implications for management of agricultural weeds. Jeff Rumney, USDA Dry Pea and Lentil Council’s Vice President, will speak on marketing and risk management of pulse crops. He will give an in depth look at marketing, hedging, and looking at futures markets for pulses nationally and worldwide. There is no charge for the seminars, and all producers are encouraged to attend. The Fort Benton, Stanford, Havre, Chester, Shelby, Cut Bank, Conrad, and Choteau seminars will begin at 8:30 a.m. with registration. The Great Falls seminar will begin at 9:30 a.m. with registration. Seminars will finish by 3:30 p.m. Both commercial and private pesticide licensing recertification credits will be available. Dates, locations, and contact numbers for each cropping seminar are listed below. January 7: Fort Benton at the Ag Center located at 1205 20th Street. Contact Tyler Lane at 406-622-3751. Stanford at the City Hall located at 102 Central. Contact Katie Hatlelid at 406-566-2277. January 8: Havre at the Northern Ag Research Center located at 3710 Assiniboine Road. Contact Shylea Wingard at 406-265-5481, Ext. 233. Chester at Our Savior’s Lutheran Church Fellowship Hall located at 10 East Madison Avenue. Contact Jesse Fulbright at 406-759-5625. January 9: Cut Bank at the Glacier County Library basement located at 21 1st Ave SE. Contact Kari Lewis, 406-873-2239. Shelby at the Comfort Inn Conference Room located at 455 McKinley Avenue. Contact Kim Woodring at 406-424-8350. January 10: Choteau at the Stage Stop Inn located at 1005 Main Avenue North. Contact MSU Teton County Extension office at 406-466-2491. Conrad at the Pondera Shooting Sports Complex at 972 Granite Road. Contact Adriane Good at 406-271-4053. January 11: Great Falls at the MSU Cascade County Extension office located at 3300 Third Street North, #9. Contact Rose Malisani at 406-454-6980. MSU Extension is an ADA/EO/AA/veteran’s preference employer and provider of educational outreach. If participants require accommodation for a disability to participate, they are asked to notify the local Extension office prior to the event.

U.S. Grains Council Statement On USMCA Signing

U.S. A statement from U.S. Grains Council President and CEO Tom Sleight: "The ceremony Friday to sign the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is an important next step in the new pact's final approval and the process of modernizing the most important trade agreement to U.S. grain farmers and exporters. "In the latest marketing year, Mexico and Canada again proved to be top buyers of U.S. feed grains in all forms, and both countries still hold significant potential for market expansion given the right trade policy frameworks and the robust market development we intend to undertake there with our partners. "We applaud the many members of the Trump Administration, as well as their Mexican and Canadian colleagues, who worked diligently to negotiate this agreement. We see its forward movement as a sign our countries will continue our robust relationship, as business partners and friends."

NAWG and U.S. Wheat Associates Welcome Official Signing of USCMA, Encourage Repeat with Japan

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, leaders of the United States, Canada and Mexico officially signed the revised North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), now known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) and U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) applaud the three countries for working together to finalize USMCA. This agreement includes important provisions for wheat farmers. Most notably, USMCA retains tariff-free access to imported U.S. wheat for our long-time flour milling customers in Mexico. That is a crucial step toward rebuilding trust in U.S. wheat as a reliable supplier in this important, neighboring market. In addition, the USMCA makes important progress towards more open commerce for U.S. wheat farmers near the border with Canada. Currently under Canadian law, wheat grown in the United States delivered to Canadian grain elevators is automatically designated as the lowest grade wheat. Canadian wheat delivered to U.S. elevators however may enter the system without penalty. This disincentive for U.S. farmers when they would otherwise see higher cash bids across the border is unfair. The updated USMCA agreement would enable U.S. varieties registered in Canada to be afforded reciprocal treatment. While there are remaining challenges, we applaud the Administration for negotiating this critical provision in the USMCA and taking a big step towards reciprocal trade along the U.S.-Canadian border. NAWG and USW look forward to Congress moving forward in reviewing the agreement through Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) requirements. In the meantime, U.S. wheat farmers are excited to see the Administration build on the momentum of USMCA by initiating negotiations with Japan (http://bit.ly/2ORCSC1). That is needed to end the threat of major wheat export losses without a new trade agreement. USW and NAWG are anxious for a quick deal and policies that would provide long-term stability in the critical Japanese market.

Farm bill continues to be bogged down with conflicts over forestry programs

WASHINGTON, D.C. (DTN) -- The farm bill continues to be bogged down with conflicts over forestry programs that the Trump Administration is insisting on to deal with forest fires. As congressional leaders were expected to consider how to handle forestry policy in the farm bill conference report this week, members of the Congressional Western Caucus on Tuesday urged farm bill conferees to include the forestry provisions of the House farm bill and condemned Senate Democrats for obstructing active management of the nation's forests. But the press release was a sign that the campaign to allow changes to forest management policy is not faring well. Thirteen congressmen commented in the news release. The forestry issue has now been bumped up to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Speaker Paul Ryan, and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. Schumer told reporters Tuesday that forestry is the only major farm-bill issue left and that Democrats "hope we can get a farm bill this year." Senate Agriculture Ranking Member Debbie Stabenow said Tuesday that the farm bill could not pass the Senate with the changes wanted by the White House. Stabenow added that she and Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts, R-Kan., would prefer that it be taken out. While Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue and Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke have said that the fires in California have proven that the policy changes are needed, there was a growing awareness that the original author of many of the provisions is Rep. Bruce Westerman, R-Ark., and that the provisions could be used throughout the country, not just in the fire-prone West. In the news release, Westerman said, "It is time for Senate Democrats to stop playing politics with people's lives and property. For far too long, our federal forests have been grossly mismanaged, exacerbating the catastrophic wildfires across the West. The forestry title in the House farm bill addresses these issues in a scientifically sound manner, including a provision which would require the Forest Service to balance the harms of action versus no action in managing our forests. Already in the House, Democrats and Republicans joined together in passing many of the provisions in this bill's forestry title. We must act now -- Republicans and Democrats -- to actively manage our forests and bring an end to the preventable cycle of destruction of lives and property." Last year, the House passed Westerman's bill, the "Resilient Federal Forests Act," on a 232-188 vote but the Senate Agriculture Committee did not advance a similar bill. The bill involved both the Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management to reduce requirements under the National Environmental Policy Act and curb potential environmental lawsuits to more easily remove dead trees but also increase overall logging on federal lands. Westerman was an engineer and forester for a lumber and paper company before winning his congressional seat. According to the campaign finance website OpenSecrets.org, Westerman also received just under $197,000 this last campaign cycle from the forestry and forest products industry, which is the most of any House member. Rep. Doug LaMalfa, R-Calif., who represents the California areas devastated by the Carr and Camp fires, said in the news release, "Following one of the most devastating wildfires in our nation's history, it's absolutely critical that House-passed forestry provisions are included in the final farm bill -- and it's absurd that some of my colleagues would oppose them. In my district alone, the destruction has been immense. In July, the Carr Fire engulfed 229,651 acres, destroyed over 1,600 structures, and took eight lives. Now, we've only just begun recovery from an even more devastating fire -- the Camp Fire -- which has become both the deadliest and most destructive fire in California history. Over 18,000 residential and commercial structures have been destroyed by a fire that consumed 153,336 acres and almost entirely destroyed the town of Paradise and surrounding areas. So far, 88 people have lost their lives, with hundreds more still missing. "We must prevent similar tragedies from occurring again, and we can do that by properly managing our forests -- which have become overgrown, overcrowded, and are now more combustible than ever. This is a problem with a clear, actionable solution. These provisions will help protect our environment, improve air quality, and save lives -- preventing their inclusion in the farm bill would be nothing short of irresponsible. I invite any farm bill conferees who may remain skeptical of these critical reforms to visit my district and see firsthand in order to better understand the devastation these fires have caused." Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Ore., added that Congress has made some improvements in helping combat forest fires, but more is needed. "Without better stewardship, our forests remain susceptible to insects and disease, leaving them ripe for catastrophic wildfires. It hardly need to be stated, as the country watched the toll of the Camp Fire on California's communities this month, that record-breaking wildfires have become the new norm across the west. The current laissez-faire approach to forest management clearly does not cut it." The Western Caucus also released a series of letters that had been sent to members of Congress on the issue and an op/ed written by Zinke for CNN. House Agriculture Committee Chairman Michael Conaway, R-Texas, told reporters Tuesday that the issue is up to Congress' top leadership. House Agriculture Committee ranking member Collin Peterson, D-Minn., told reporters, "This is the last time there is a forestry title in the farm bill as far as I am concerned."

House Package To Revive But Phase Out Biodiesel Tax Credit

A package unveiled Monday by House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady, R-Texas, would revive the lapsed $1-per-gallon tax credit for biodiesel but gradually phase it out after 2021. The plan would lower the tax incentive to 75 cents per gallon starting in 2022, reduce it to 50 cents in 2023 and 33 cents in 2024. The credit would be eliminated after 2024. The $1.01-per-gallon tax credit for second-generation biofuels, including ethanol derived from corn stover or wood chips, and a separate tax benefit for biofuel pumps would be extended only for 2018. While the measure may clear the House, some are questioning whether the package can clear the Senate. However, the measure also includes disaster relief, which could help grease the skids toward passage. 

Senate Confirms Vaden as USDA General Counsel

The U.S. Senate on Tuesday (Nov. 27) voted 53-46 to confirm Stephen Vaden as USDA general counsel, more than a year after President Donald Trump nominated him for the post. The vote was largely along party lines with only three Democrats joining 50 Republicans to approve Vaden's nomination. A Tennessee native and 2008 graduate of Yale Law School, Vaden was on the Trump administration's landing team at USDA and has served as principal deputy general counsel since March 2017. The president chose Vaden to serve as general counsel in September 2017, a post tasked with providing legal advice to the USDA officials and agencies. USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue praised the Senate for approving Vaden, who will advise Perdue on food safety, nutrition, marketing and a range of other agriculture programs. "He will continue to provide important legal advice and services to the department and our agencies as they operate the programs that are so important to our customers," Perdue said in a statement. "Stephen’s roots on a working farm in Tennessee and expertise in the law will well serve the people of American agriculture." The Senate Agriculture Committee voted to confirm Vaden in December 2017, but his nomination stalled amid controversies surrounding his role in the reassignment of career staff at USDA. 

Washington Insider: Weaker Future G-20s

Bloomberg is reporting this week on a basic shift in international relations that has been mainly below the media radar. The report says that an important way of ironing out many important global issues is now threatened and that the “global summit communique, with its all-night negotiations over square brackets and the placement of commas, is in danger of extinction.” For more than 40 years, so-called sherpas and their assistant “sous-sherpas” and “yaks’’ have been heaving these documents toward the pinnacles of international summits, “producing blueprints for how their nations aim to work together to fix what’s broken in the world.” “'Communiques' at this level have had to be finessed in the past,” Bloomberg says, “but twice this year the entire process collapsed.” At the June G-7 meeting in Canada, President Donald Trump withdrew U.S. support for the document he had just agreed to, upset about “the treatment by his host amid bilateral tensions over trade.” And, no final statement was reached at an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Papua New Guinea this month, as China and the U.S. clashed, again over trade. Events often complicate things further at the G-20, Bloomberg says. President Vladimir Putin will arrive in Argentina fresh from his military’s provocative seizure of Ukrainian naval vessels. And, President Trump is expected to emphasize the importance of his private meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping and the threats to slap tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars more Chinese imports if the concessions he wants from their bilateral meeting are not forthcoming. The summit’s Argentine hosts have drafted a shortened text of as few as three pages, compared to 15 plus supporting documents at the last G-20 in Germany. The risk is they produce a communique so watered down as to be meaningless, Bloomberg said. However, trade experts also say that the troubles in global summitry aren’t just due to the U.S. administration. The root causes stretch deeper, according to Cecilia Nahon, who calls the Trump policies themselves “symptoms of a backlash against globalization that was already underway for some time." Another problem is the negotiators themselves, who are the personal representatives of national leaders. In 2008-2009, the people appointed to draw up communiques that helped avoid a meltdown of the global financial system were mostly economists, Bloomberg says, and were keenly focused on the substance of fiscal and monetary policy coordination. “No longer,” Russia’s G-20 sherpa Svetlana Lukash, told Bloomberg, recalling how the depth of the financial crisis created a common sense of commitment that’s no longer as strong. For many outside the arcane world of these working dinners, the question is: “so what?” A world without global summits and their communiques would continue to turn much as it did before the first “G” meeting in 1975. At that time, after Vietnam, the industrialized West seemed in retreat. So French President Valery Giscard d’Estaing invited the leaders of Britain, Germany, Italy, Japan and the U.S. to Paris to take control. Most of the alphabet soup of international summitry — from the G-7 and G-20, to APEC, ASEAN, the EU and more — grew up on one side or the other of the Iron Curtain during the Cold War, or soon afterward and were dominated by “the U.S. and its norms.” But that domination ended in the aftermath of the financial crisis. And the competition to define global rules and responses has since grown fierce. “The communiques are dead letters, there is really nothing in them at this point,” says Ian Bremmer, the political scientist who coined the term G-Zero to describe a world in which declining U.S. dominance and a wave of nationalist and protectionist impulses are leaving a vacuum of effective global governance. That’s a view fiercely resisted by the sherpas, who believe the summits and their communiques are still vital tools for resolving differences as those multiply. Still, last year’s Hamburg communique squeezed through only by recusing the U.S. from language on climate change. The same may now be needed for trade. “Domestically there is a bit of re-prioritization taking place,” said India’s G-20 sherpa, Shaktikanta Das. “But on issues that have a cross-border impact, it has to be done within the framework of multilateralism. People have to be mindful of the spillover effects.” To avoid future public failures, some sherpas believe it may be time to shift toward a less contentious document — the chair’s statement. That’s what Peter Boehm, sherpa for Canada, expected to do at the combustible G-7 summit in June. Others insisted on a communique, which emphasized specific commitments and accountability. The next couple of years, with France and the U.S. due to host G-7s, could well see change in how the summits are run, he said. Asked if we might see the circuit of global summitry stop altogether, Boehm said: “we might.” Trade policy issues have become increasingly volatile and politicized this year, and the Argentine meetings are seen as high stakes confrontations for many U.S. groups—and the image of a less important U.S. presence in global trade policy likely will be increasingly difficult to explain to many of these groups. Producers should watch closely as the implications of the coming “summit” unfold over the next few weeks, Washington Insider believes.

Forestry Title a Farm Bill Sticking Point

As agriculture eagerly awaits a farm bill, another hurdle has emerged. Now, a forestry dispute appears to be in the way, according to Politico. Pat Roberts, chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, continues to insist that the conference committee negotiators are “close” to reaching an agreement. He says finding an agreement on the forestry title is the biggest obstacle. That’s because lawmakers are considering whether or not the title will include active management of areas at risk to wildfires, a request by President Donald Trump but opposed by Democrats and environmental groups. Opposition says active forest management could “devastate forests” and “wipe out plants and animals.” Roberts told reporters earlier this week that if the issue is settled, “that would indicate that the light went from yellow to green” on the entire conference report.

Romaine Growers to Change Labeling, Resume Selling

Romaine lettuce growers can harvest and send their product to market with special regional labeling. The Food and Drug Administration called the labeling voluntary, which includes harvest location and harvest date. The labeling agreement was negotiated by a number of romaine grower-shipper-processors, who have each pledged to abide by the labeling suggestions, according to the United Fresh Produce Association. The FDA advisory had virtually banned romaine sales in the United States. In a statement, the FDA believes it was critically important to have a “clean break” in the romaine supply available to consumers in the U.S. in order to “purge the market” of potentially contaminated romaine lettuce related to the current outbreak. Since, the FDA has isolated the outbreak to the Central Coast growing regions of central and northern California.

Argentina Replaces China as Largest Buyer of U.S. Soy

The trade war between the U.S. and China has made Argentina the top buyer of U.S. soybeans. Department of Agriculture Data shows that 1.3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans have been inspected for export to Argentina from September 1 through November 22. That compares with none in the same year-ago period. China, previously the top buyer of U.S. soy, is seeking purchases elsewhere amid the tit-for-tat trade war with the United States. Bloomberg News reports that normally Argentina processes its own soybeans to export meal and oil. But, with China on the hunt for non-American soy, it’s shipping out more raw beans and buying more from the U.S. to feed its crushers, especially after a drought earlier this year curbed output. At the start of the trade war, China placed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybean, seeking to inflict the most pain possible on the U.S. by targeting agriculture.

Agreement Nearing to Allow Argentine Beef in U.S.

Argentina is closing in on an agreement to send exports of beef to the United States for the first time in nearly 20 years. Reuters reports the agreement, expected to be signed within days, would simultaneously open beef imports to both countries. Argentina’s International Trade Secretary says the deal would open a market for the U.S. cattle sector, although demand for U.S. beef is low in Argentina. Under the agreement being crafted, Argentina would have a 20,000 metric ton limit on exports to the U.S., while there would be no limit on U.S. beef exports to Argentina. Another senior Argentine official confirmed that Argentina and the United States were “close” to striking a deal, according to Reuters. Argentina stopped exporting beef to the United States about 17 years ago due to U.S. concerns about contamination of Argentine cattle by foot-and-mouth disease. 

Abraham Introduces Bill to Help Soybean Farmers Access Tariff Relief Program

Congressman Ralph Abraham, a Louisiana Republican, has introduced legislation to help soybean farmers better access a program designed to offset losses caused by Chinese tariffs. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced the Market Facilitation Program earlier this year that offers payments to soybean farmers based on losses to their harvested acres incurred by Chinese tariffs. However, Abraham says not all soybean farmers have access to the program. In his home state, Louisiana, for example, many soybean farmers have either harvested with nowhere to take their beans or been unable to harvest at all, because local storage facilities are full of out of state soybeans normally destined for export, leaving Louisiana growers unable to participate in the MFP. The bill would amend the MFP to allow payments in some circumstances based on “planted acres” instead of “harvested acres.” This change will allow soybean farmers who could not take their crop to market the ability to still participate in the tariff relief program.

Brady Introduced Biodiesel Tax Credit Extenders Representative

Kevin Brady, a Texas Republican and chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, has introduced a bill to extend biodiesel tax credits. The legislation would make technical corrections to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and extend several expired tax credits, including the biodiesel and renewable diesel tax incentive. The National Biodiesel Board applauded the proposal that would provide a multi-year extension and would keep the credit at its current rate of $1.00 per gallon for 2018 through 2021 but gradually reduce it to $0.33 per gallon by 2024 and then allow it to expire. NBB says that “too often, the credit has been allowed to lapse and then reinstated retroactively, which does not provide the certainty businesses need to plan, invest, and create jobs.” Made from an increasingly diverse mix of resources such as recycled cooking oil, soybean oil and animal fats, NBB says biodiesel is a renewable, clean-burning diesel replacement that can be used in existing diesel engines without modification.

Simplot Grower Solutions Named Agricultural Retailers Association 2018 Retailer of the Year

BOCA RATON, Fla. (Nov. 28, 2018) – Today the Agricultural Retailers Association (ARA) named Simplot Grower Solutions its 2018 Retailer of the Year. The award is sponsored by Bayer and AgPro Magazine and is recognized as a symbol of quality and prestige within the industry. This coveted award honors an ag retailer, large or small, that represents the best of the best. Simplot Grower Solutions, the retail arm of the J.R. Simplot company, was started in 1945 as Simplot Soil Builders and has grown over the last 70-plus years into one of North America’s premier ag retailers. “Simplot Grower Solutions truly represents the finest in the ag retail business,” said ARA President and CEO Daren Coppock. “Ag retailers are innovators, community leaders and environmental stewards, and Simplot Grower Solutions is a leader in each of these areas.” “We are thrilled to receive this award,” said Dave Dufault, vice president of the JR Simplot Company. “The commitment and dedication of our employees shines through in everything we do, and to be recognized for that is a true honor.” Simplot Grower Solutions provides customers with expert advice and products for hundreds of crops, multiple cropping systems, and a wide variety of soil types. With a team of more than 1,700 employees, including 120 certified crop and pest advisers, they work together to ensure that products are delivered on time and the services provided are of the highest quality. “Over the past several years I have had the privilege of presenting the ARA Retailer of the Year to amazing leaders,” said Mark Helt, Bayer U.S. strategic accounts lead. “The honorees have been leaders in not only their business, but also in their communities and in our industry. I have witnessed firsthand how the Simplot Grower Solutions team build remarkable trusting relationships and truly care about their customers, employees, suppliers and their community.” The award was presented during ARA’s 2018 Conference and Expo in Boca Raton, Fla., which continues through Thursday, Nov. 29. Click here to view a video that showcases the work of Simplot Grower Solutions. More information about the ARA Conference and Expo can be found at www.aradc.org/conference, or on ARA’s social media channels.

American cattlemen are producing more Prime beef than ever

USDA’s latest steer and heifer grading report shows that carcasses grading Prime accounted for 9.6% of all cattle graded, with another 71% grading Choice. “Thus, in mid-November 2018, over 80% of all cattle in the U.S. were grading Choice or better,” says Len Steiner, Steiner Consulting Group. “That’s a stunning shift from even 10 years ago when fewer than 60% of cattle graded Choice or higher.” As Steiner notes in the Daily Livestock Report published by Steiner Consulting Group, there are a number of factors at work to help explain this shift toward higher quality. “First, there is the long run trend in upgrading cattle genetics, a trend that accelerated after the liquidation that took place in 2011-2012,” Steiner says. “The herd rebuilding that started in 2014 appears to have brought with it much better performing cattle and a sharp increase in the supply of high marbled beef. It is stunning to think that almost 13% of cattle in Nebraska graded prime and another 73% graded choice.” Steiner says the processing industry has also upgraded processes used to grade cattle. “While human graders still are employed, a larger share of grading is now done by computers, with human graders overseeing the process. This has made for more consistent grading but also more cattle grading choice or higher.” The more cattle grading Choice and Prime has also reduce the number of Select carcasses in the slaughter mix. That fact has tended to narrow the spread between Choice and Select, “especially for those product where marbling does not bring any special benefits,” Steiner says. “For some beef processors a higher marbled product may be a disadvantage since it presents lower yields and does not add much to the flavor profile of the final product. The shift to more prime grading cattle has helped bolster cutout values but not as much as one would think.” Steiner says the increase in supply of Prime has been accompanied by a decline in price. “The premium last year averaged $31 per cwt, not far from the $30 per cwt average premium of the last five years. This year, however, the Prime beef cutout has averaged just $14 per cwt higher than the Choice cutout. With more Prime cattle in the mix, packers have had trouble realizing the normal premiums on Prime ribeyes or loins, which are about half of what they were a year ago.”

Congress Returns with Hopes of Farm Bill Passage

Lawmakers return to Washington, D.C., this week with a need to still find a path forward on the farm bill. However, multiple measures, including 2019 appropriation bills, must also be passed in the lame-duck session. The House is scheduled to leave on Thursday, December 13th, while the Senate is scheduled to adjourn on Friday, December 14th. But, Congress could stay in session longer if the necessary end-of-the-year business is not completed by the target dates, according to the Hagstrom Report. Leaders of the House and Senate agriculture committees say they still hope to finish a farm bill this session, but they have not shown signs of reaching a final agreement. Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley has hinted that the farm bill might be added to the appropriations bill so that House leadership would not have to bring it up as a separate piece of legislation. Meanwhile, Representative Collin Peterson of Minnesota, who will chair the House Ag Committee next year, says that if the bill does not pass, he wants to organize his committee quickly in January and bring up the farm bill in short order. 

Mexico and Canada Confirm USMCA

Signing this Week Leadership of Mexico and Canada have confirmed the two nations will sign the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement Friday that replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement. Politico reports that Canada’s Justin Trudeau and the outgoing Mexican President will sign the pact on the Mexican official’s last day in office at the G20 Summit, where President Trump is also expected to talk trade with China. The confirmation comes as there is no steel and aluminum tariff resolution for Mexico and Canada, once thought to be a contingent by the two nations. Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau last week said Canada was “not going to make one set of negotiations contingent on the other.” Mexico and Canada both had previously threatened to hold off on signing the USMCA until President Trump removed the steel and aluminum tariffs. The tariffs are also thought to limit any gains in the new agreement once in place. 

Strong Demand Keeping Pork Supplies Current

Strong demand is helping the pork industry push through high production. An outlook published by the Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service shows that though fourth-quarter pork production is on track to reach a record high of more than seven billion pounds, up 3.5 percent from a year ago, the ending stocks-to-production ratio is projected to drop to its lowest level since 1990. Meat industry publication Meatingplace says that means domestic demand is outpacing production because U.S. consumers are likely responding to lower prices by buying more pork at a time when disposable personal incomes are rising. Fourth-quarter hog price forecasts reflect heavy supplies, almost nine percent lower than prices during the same period last year. For the full year, commercial pork production is projected at a record 26 billion pounds. 

Tennessee Eying Corn Checkoff Vote

Beginning next year, Tennessee corn growers could see over a million dollars invested annually in research, promotion and education activities. That is if they pass a one cent per bushel corn checkoff during the checkoff authorization vote this week. Tennessee Corn Growers Association President Mike Holman says: “A state corn checkoff with a refund provision will provide help in achieving both yield increases and better demand." If passed, Tennessee will join the other 20 top corn-producing states in the nation in collecting a checkoff. The state corn checkoffs invest almost $90 million annually to improve farmer profitability. Some of those funds are spent in-state with universities and other partners, especially on vital research. State and federal ag research dollars are declining and little of the corn research being done by large seed companies is specific to Tennessee, according to the National Corn Growers Association. 

Tyson Predicts 2019 Food Trends

Tyson Foods, the largest U.S. food company, is offering up its predictions for food trends next year. Noting that years past have led to avocado toast, and others, including the poke bowl in 2018, Tyson says it takes "enormous pride and responsibility in helping shape and identify the next wave of culinary trends." For 2019, while no specific dish or item is identified, Tyson says there are several key trends to focus on. Those include personalized foods to promote health and beauty, transparent food production, adding more proteins in more forms, harnessing the power of smart technology and food, creating food as a form of self-expression and a fusion of global cuisines at home. This year, to identify the next top food trends, the company created the Tyson Trendtellers Council, made up of a dozen of the company's top food thinkers and innovators. 

Cargill Donates Milk Servings to Feeding America

In August, Cargill launched the #putyourherdfirst campaign to support The Great American Milk Drive. More than 65,000 people engaged with the campaign on Facebook and Cargill announced that all 200 food banks in the Feeding America network will receive 500 servings of milk through the campaign. A Cargill spokesperson says the company received “tremendous” support, adding it is “very thankful to everyone who helped us reach the goal of 100,000 servings of milk.” Cargill notes that each year, 46 million people, including 12 million children, rely on Feeding America food banks for regular access to milk, which is one of the most-requested, but least-donated, items. On average, the food banks are only able to provide the equivalent of less than one gallon of milk per person per year. The Great American Milk Drive was created to help address the need, and is the first-of-its-kind national program. The campaign was used by Cargill to raise awareness for HerdFirst, a new line of advanced calf and heifer nutrition.

Supplies of American-style cheese were up 43 million pounds over projections

In a normal year the amount of dairy products in inventory at processing facilities across the U.S. goes down at the end of the year. That’s because folks need butter, cheese and other dairy products to make all of those delicious Holiday treats and meals. Well, 2018 certainly hasn’t been a normal year, so the fact that cheese inventories are actually increasing shouldn’t come as a surprise. According to the October USDA cold storage report, supplies of American-style cheese were up 43 million pounds over projections. According to Nate Donnay, director of dairy market insight at INTL FCStone, this is partly due to an 11.4 million pound upward revision to September numbers. cheese inventories “What’s most concerning is that inventories counter-seasonally increased in September, and the counter-seasonally increased again in October,” Donnay says. The last time inventories took this kind of jump was in 2010, when stocks were flat during the second half of the year, Donnay says. Sales were weaker than expected in September, and exports could be the blame. In an export analysis in September, the U.S. Dairy Export Council indicated that cheese exports drifted lower in the third quarter. September volume was 24,569 tons (-9%), a 20-month low. Cheese shipments to Mexico (5,952 tons, -10%) were lower for the third straight month. U.S. suppliers also saw slower sales to Australia (-36%), China (-63%), Japan (-22%) and the MENA region (-35%). The only notable gains were posted in sales to Southeast Asia (+99%) and South Korea (+18%). “We have a lot more cheese laying around than we thought we had and the supply/demand balance was certainly out-of-whack in Q3,” Donnay says. “Given that CME blocks hit their lowest level in 2 ½ years this week, we have to argue the balance has remained out of whack into mid-November.” So what does the future hold? Retailers buy cheese from processors, and during the Holidays it’s a safe bet that their inventories get taxed. As that supply pipeline refills, given the current status of inventories, upside price potential could be limited, Donnay says. If the past is any indication, look for price volatility ahead, Donnay says. After that counter-seasonal build in stocks in 2010, the cheese market rallied 70 cents in the first quarter of 2011 back up to $2.00 per pound. While analysts don’t see that kind of price in the future, Donnay says the next few months could be highly volatile.

THREE THINGS TO KNOW: USDA-FDA ANNOUNCEMENT ON REGULATING LAB-GROWN FAKE MEAT

Last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) threw a wrench in the Friday evening plans of many fake meat watchers. Just after 4:30 pm, the agencies announced they had agreed on a framework for regulating lab-grown fake meat products. Here are three things every cattle and beef producer should know about the recent announcement. USDA takes the primary. Under the announced framework, the USDA would have the primary role in ensuring that lab-grown fake meat is held to the same food safety and labeling standards as real beef. The FDA would be responsible for all things cellular, including collection of cell samples and cell growth. But oversight of labeling and “harvest” (when cells are turned into food products) would still rest with USDA. This is only the beginning. The announced framework is a positive step, but many more details need to be worked out before lab-grown fake meat products come to market. The USDA-FDA announcement is like a skeleton; now the federal agencies need to put (real) meat on the bones. To start, both agencies extended the public comment period on the regulation of lab-grown fake meat. Producers and consumers can make their voice heard by submitting comes in support of USDA oversight. Comments can be submitted here until December 26, 2018. The labeling question remains. The framework gave no indication of how lab-grown fake meat products will ultimately be labeled. (Considering lab-grown products are not even available for independent analysis, that is not surprising.) The good news is that under USDA oversight, the process will be based on sound science and the label will have to be approved before lab-grown products hit the market.

China Not Correcting Actions That Led to Tariffs

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer says China hasn’t taken action to correct the practices that led to American tariffs on Chinese imports. The tariffs are currently in place on $250 billion in goods. The trade chief made the announcement at the same time his agency released a 53-page update to its report on its own investigation into China’s intellectual trade practices. “We completed this update as part of the administration’s stronger monitoring and enforcement effort,” Lighthizer says. “The update shows that China hasn’t altered its unfair, market-distorting practices that were the focus of the report in March of this year on our Section 301 investigation.” The announcement from Lighthizer comes just ten days before a face-to-face meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi (Zhee) Jinping in Buenos Aires during the G20 summit. The South China Morning Post website says the discussions could either pause the trade dispute between the two largest economies in the world or it could potentially lead to further escalation.

Tariffs Headed for WTO Dispute Hearings

Both the United States and opponents of tariffs put in place by President Donald Trump confirmed they want to take their disputes to the World Trade Organization. Those confirmations kickstarted the procedure for the WTO to set up dispute hearings. China, the European Union, Canada, Mexico, Russia, and Norway all confirmed that they will take their disputes to adjudication proceedings. The Unites States also confirmed it wants dispute panels set up for trade disagreements with Canada, China, and the EU. Reuters quotes a U.S. trade official as saying, “The United States cannot abide this level of hypocrisy.” That was in response to each challenge to the steel and aluminum tariffs at the center of the trade disputes. Trump first put the tariffs in place by saying they were a national security issue, and as such are exempt from WTO rules. The other countries don’t agree, calling the tariffs thinly-veiled protectionism that has damaged U.S. rivals globally. They want the U.S. to compensate them for damages and imposed their own tariffs in response. WTO dispute panels are set up to settle disputes as peacefully as possible by encouraging each country to bring their policies in line with WTO rules, rather than litigating.

GOP Lawmakers Want USMCA Passed This Year

A dozen Republican lawmakers sent a letter to U.S. President Donald Trump, asking him to send final legislative language on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement to Congress as soon as possible. They want Congress to be able to vote on it before Democrats take control of the House in 2019. A Bloomberg report says the legislators think the final passage of the trade pact will be “much more difficult” in 2019 as Democrats have already asked for revisions. So far, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell hasn’t shown much interest in dealing with the agreement before the end of the year. Should the president pursue congressional approval this year, the senators say “we commit to working with you in a consultative manner to draft implementing legislation that will win votes in a majority of the House and Senate.” Bloomberg says the White House declined to comment on the long-shot attempt by the 12 Republicans to get the trade agreement over the finish line. All three countries plan to sign the pact at the Group of 20 leaders’ summit in Argentina, which begins on November 30th. The pact requires U.S. congressional approval, as well as approval from lawmakers in both Canada and Mexico.

No Farm Bill Yet, Plenty of Comments

The chairs and ranking members of the agriculture committees in both chambers of Congress remained silent on farm bill progress. The Hagstrom Report says that didn’t stop legislators and lobbyists from discussing the topic in public. Soon-to-be House Ag Chair Collin Peterson says if Congress doesn’t pass the farm bill during the upcoming lame-duck session, he’ll bring it up in January. Peterson says current House Ag Chair Michael Conaway dropped a controversial food stamp provision last week. “I want the ag committee organized as soon as possible so I can take the bill that we have now, pass it in the House, and send it over (to the Senate),” he says. “Even if (Senate Ag Committee Ranking Member Debbie) Stabenow doesn’t get everything she wants, let her vote against it if that’s what she wants to do.” Peterson thinks that the nutrition title, one of the biggest sticking points in the conference debate, has finally been worked out. Chuck Grassley of Iowa says the farm bill might be added to the fiscal year 2019 appropriations bill that Congress has to pass by December 7th. Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue and Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke told reporters that they want the new farm bill to give them needed management reforms.

NCGA Wants More Equitable Trade-Relief Payments

The National Corn Growers Association is asking Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue to look at changes in the Market Facilitation Program as the second round of payments draws near. NCGA President Lynn Chrisp wrote a letter to Perdue saying that he’s continuing to hear from farmers who are disappointed in how the USDA calculated the first round of payment to farmers. Chrisp said the calculations were too narrow in scope so the agency didn’t take into account the real-time impacts of trade disputes on markets. The NCGA is asking Perdue to include ethanol and Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles (DDGS) into the way the agency calculates trade damages for corn. According to the USDA’s own methodology, trade damage to ethanol and DDGS amounted to $254 million, something not taken into account during the first round of payments. Chrisp is also asking the secretary to allow farmers hit hard by natural disasters to use an alternative to 2018 production numbers for their MFP calculations. If the agency makes that change, it would allow producers suffering from drought, hurricane damage, or other natural disasters to not be penalized twice.

CDC Issues Warning About Romaine Lettuce Consumption

The Center for Disease Control issued an unusually strong alert for consumers to avoid eating romaine lettuce. The warning also included retailers and restaurants not selling or serving it. The reason is an E. coli outbreak in the U.S. and Canada that’s sickened at least 32 people. No deaths have been attributed to the outbreak. Politico notes the CDC action says officials have pinned the cause of the outbreak on romaine lettuce. However, the action doesn’t pinpoint the region where the outbreak began. Federal health officials don’t normally take this kind of action until they have more specific information on the source of the outbreak. Officials are stepping up their efforts to prevent future illnesses. FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb (GOT-leeb) says his agency believes the source of the outbreak likely is California. He also said the industry needs to improve its tracking system in order to find the source when problems arise. “Our first mandate is to protect public health,” Gottlieb says, “all while we fully recognize that this will cause extreme hardship for growers and consumers.” Major produce industry groups say they’re following the FDA direction to pull the product.

Blaming turkey and its tryptophan content for your post-dinner snooze may be a bit unfair

The noble turkey, once championed by Benjamin Franklin as "a bird of courage" and "a much more respectable bird" than the America's first bird, the bald eagle, has been getting a bad rap for those after-Thanksgiving meal nod-offs.

Blaming the turkey and its tryptophan content for your post-dinner snooze may be a bit unfair, according to Alison Webster, registered dietitian and associate director, nutrition communications with the International Food Information Council Foundation (IFIC).

In an IFIC blog post earlier this month, Webster explained that even though the gobbler does contain the amino acid tryptophan — a precursor for sleep-inducing melatonin and seratonin — you would have to consume it without other amino acids present to place the naptime blame squarely on turkey.

"This is because after we eat, the amino acids in protein all compete for entry to the brain, where they’re used to make a variety of neurotransmitters and hormones," Webster explained. "When there’s a traffic jam of other amino acids at the door, tryptophan’s odds of entry to the brain – where it’s converted to serotonin and melatonin – are slim."

Webster also notes that the amount of tryptophan content in turkey is not an especially compelling factor in causing us to fall asleep midday on Thanksgiving. Turkey contains about 265 to 300 milligrams of tryptophan per 3-ounce serving, as does chicken and beef.

"So, in earth-shaking Thanksgiving news: We can’t place all of the blame on turkey for our urge to take a nap," Webster concludes, speculating that that heavy eyelids after partaking in the holiday feast may be more about eating more food in one sitting than we normally do and taking advantage of the time for relaxation on the day.

"[Turkey is] probably one of the healthiest things on our dinner plate with about 25 grams of protein per serving (about the size of a deck of cards)," Webster noted. "Given its iron, zinc, potassium and vitamin B content, we should give turkey the respect it deserves with a place of honor in our holiday meals."

45 outbreaks of ASF spanning large distances over China’s landscape has caused 862 pig deaths and the culling of at least 38,980 more pigs

China is home to 500 million pigs — more than the combined number of pigs that inhabit the rest of the world. Many of China’s pigs are raised in the backyards of small independent farmers. Those independent farmers trade freely amongst themselves. They take their animals for slaughter on the streets in open-air “wet” markets. Biosecurity controls and cold storage capabilities are minimal.

If that’s the kindling, then African Swine Fever (ASF) is the fire.

From the beginning of August to Oct. 19, at least 45 outbreaks spanning large distances over China’s landscape had caused 862 pig deaths and the culling of at least 38,980 more pigs, according to official counts of the World Organization for Animal Health. And as the Chinese government works to minimize the damage, the world is bracing for impact.

“With any foreign animal disease, we’ve all used the [saying] that it’s not ‘if’ but ‘when,’” says Dr. Paul Sundberg, executive director of the Swine Health Information Center in Ames, Iowa.

Granted, it could be a long “when.” The United States hasn’t had a case of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) since 1929, for example. But the threat of ASF is real, and there currently is no certified vaccination to combat it.

“The outbreak in China changes the game for African Swine Fever,” Sundberg says. “… [W]ith the type of production they have and the type of trade [the United States has] with China …  I think that has changed the pressure on the United States on the likelihood of introduction here.”

The not-if-but-when scenario is perhaps the closest thing to certainty in an ever-changing situation ripe mostly for best guesses. Along with new advances of ASF in Europe, which has been dogged by the disease for the last decade, China’s problems have animal health officials, border regulators, as well as meat importers and exporters preparing for their response.

Report Says EPA to Propose Reset for RFS

EPA is developing a proposal to be unveiled in January that would set new targets for the 2020-2022 period for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) given that the legislative targets for biofuel levels have been missed, according to two sources quoted by Reuters.

Under the law, EPA is able to propose a "reset" of RFS levels if biofuel targets spelled out in law are missed by more than 20 percent or more for two years in a row.

The two sources told the news service EPA is planning to "slash" the 2022 target to bring it closer to market realities, however, a figure has not been settled on.

The shortfalls in biofuels production have mostly been in the advanced and cellulosic biofuel categories while conventional ethanol production – primarily corn-based ethanol – has met the statutory targets.

EPA has proposed setting the cellulosic biofuel requirement at 381 million gallons in 2019 after having set it at 288 million gallons in 2018. Under the 2007 energy law, the requirement for cellulosic biofuel was to be at seven billion gallons for 2018 and 8.5 billion gallons for 2019.

For advanced biofuels, EPA has proposed a mark of 4.88 billion gallons for 2019 and set the level at 4.29 billion gallons for 2018. Under the 2007 energy law, the advanced biofuel level was to be 13 billion gallons for 2019 and 11 billion gallons for 2018.

Conventional biofuel, primarily corn-based ethanol, was capped at 15 billion gallons annually for 2018 through 2022.

Corn Growers Urge Changes for Second Tranche Of Ag Trade Aid

Changes to the methodology used to calculate a second round of trade aid payments are being called for by corn growers, contending the first payments did not take enough into account.

A first round of payments under USDA's Market Facilitation Program (MFP) are currently being disbursed and as the second round is being readied, the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) wants USDA to broaden the areas it considers in putting those payments together.

Of commodities receiving MFP payments, first round payouts for corn set to be the lowest with a rate of $0.01 per bushel, yielding disbursements totaling $96 million. In a letter to USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue, NCGA President Lynn Chrisp cited an analysis it previously shared with the White House, conducted by Integrated Financial Analytics and Research (IFAR), which found trade disputes with China and the European Union (EU) caused an average decline in the price of corn of $0.44 per bushel.

As trade turmoil with the EU, China and others persists, causing "significant uncertainty," Chrisp asked Perdue to consider two changes to MFP payment calculations to more accurately address the negative effects being felt by US corn growers.

First, Chrisp asked that ethanol and distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) be added to the calculation of damages for corn. "Gross trade damages for ethanol and DDGS amounts to $254 million that was not accounted for in the first tranche of MFP payments," he wrote.

Second, farmers suffering production losses due to natural disasters should be allowed to use an alternate method for calculating 2018 production for the purpose of determining MFP payments. Such a change "would ensure that farmers in Kansas, Missouri and Texas, who are suffering from drought, and farmers in the Southeast, who are suffering losses from Hurricane Michael, would not be penalized twice," Chrisp said. Also, he added, it is "important that farmers be allowed to use RMA production records in MFP."

Washington Insider: Aid is Scarce for Farmers in Trade War

The New York Times and most other urban papers have a certain amount of trouble painting realistic pictures of what is going on down on the farm. Still, they try and NYT is reporting this week that “America’s farmers have been shut out of foreign markets, hit with retaliatory tariffs and lost lucrative contracts in the face of the President’s trade war.”

In addition, the Times says the $12 billion bailout program created to “make it up” to farmers has actually “done little to cushion the blow, with red tape and long waiting periods resulting in few payouts so far.”

The main point of the article is that USDA is reporting that only $838 million has been paid out to farmers since the first $6 billion pot of money was made available in September. Another pool of up to $6 billion is expected to become available next month.

Though, as DTN reported Monday, the payments had reached $1.128 billion by Monday morning. The top five commodities being soybeans, corn, wheat, dairy and hogs. The top five states for recipients are Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas and Minnesota.

Also, the “government is unlikely to offer additional money beyond the $12 billion,” according to Sonny Perdue, the agriculture secretary.

The program’s limitations are beginning to test farmers’ patience, the Times thinks. The trade war shows no signs of easing, with China and the United States locked in a stalemate that has reduced American farmers’ access to a critical market for soybeans, farm equipment and other products. Europe is planning more retaliatory tariffs on top of those already imposed on American peanut butter and orange juice and Canada and Mexico continue to levy taxes on American goods, including on pork and cheese.

President Trump, who has had broad support in many farm states, still insists that his get-tough approach to trade will ultimately help American farmers, a position Secretary Perdue reiterated last month when he said farmers are “resilient” and can plan ahead for market conditions.

Farmers are no strangers to foreign tariffs or to government subsidies. But receiving monetary support in response to a trade dispute set off by the United States government is unusual.

Different commodities receive different rates — for instance, hog farmers get $8 per head for 50% of their herd, while dairy farmers get 12 cents for every hundred pounds of milk. In addition, the government plans to purchase about $1.3 million worth of certain products, such as apples, oranges and pork, which it will distribute through nutrition assistance programs.

Farmers had mixed feelings about the “bailout” when it was announced last summer, as they tend to prefer free enterprise over government intervention. “Many” say they are disappointed as the subsidies have not made up for their losses, NYT says.

“I don’t think this is going to be enough to compensate them,” said Eric Belasco, an economist at Montana State University and a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. “It seems like there’s not really an end in sight.”

The dairy industry has been particularly critical of the program and, in a recent letter to Perdue, asked the administration to rethink how it calculates subsidies and to make them more generous to dairy farmers.

“This was supposed to make sure farmers were not the victims of this trade policy,” said Jim Mulhern, president of the National Milk Producers Federation. “I think most agriculture producers feel that the payments have not come close to making up for the damage for the tariffs.”

Like any program offering free money, there are also opportunities to game the system. On Monday, the watchdog organization Environmental Working Group released a report that shows city residents who own shares in farms and relatives of farmers have been capitalizing on the bailout and that some farmers appear to have been paid large sums of money.

The program caps the amount farmers can receive, limiting payments to $125,000 per person or legal entity. But farms are often structured as partnerships, meaning that people who are not physically working on farms can still receive subsidies.

The Environmental Working Group’s analysis of 87,704 payments made through October found that 1,142 farmers in the nation’s 50 largest cities have received bailout payments.

Farmers in general are having a tough year. The USDA’s Economic Research Service predicts net farm income in the United States this year will fall by $9.8 billion, to $65.7 billion, a 13% drop from 2017. Weak pricing and tight credit have put pressure on farms in recent years, and new trade barriers have exacerbated their economic problems.

Pork has also been getting pinched. The National Pork Producers Council estimated that China’s pork tariffs, which were a response to Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, could cost the industry more than $2 billion this year.

So, we will see. Farmers are notoriously skeptical of programs that are expected to offset losses from policy decisions, a characteristic they have shown repeatedly in the past. Analysts suggested that the administration largely escaped political retaliation for its trade policies in the recent midterms. At the same time, few seem to believe that producers will support the administration’s tough trade policies and the retaliations they bring indefinitely, especially if it turns out that the so-called farm aid has been seriously oversold — a debate producers will need to watch closely as it proceeds, Washington Insider believes.

Committee chairs remain silent on the status of farm bill conference negotiations

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- The chairs of the House and Senate Agriculture committees remain silent on the status of farm bill conference negotiations, but there have been plenty of comments in the last few days about what is in the legislation, what isn't in it and what should be in it.

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue and Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke on Tuesday held a conference call on forestry management and said the farm bill needed to include language to help thin forests to deal with devastating wildfires in the west.

Perdue and Zinke told reporters that they want the farm bill to give them management reforms, including for the U.S. Forest Service and Interior Department agencies to have authority to work with local governments and tribes as well as states on fire suppression. Perdue said they also want "categorical exclusions" so that the government can authorize the thinning of trees and the removal of dead and dying trees after a fire.

"We are not talking about clear-cutting," Perdue said.

Noting that the world has been focused on the California fires, Perdue said, "These are disasters we can do something about. We need the authority do that."

Perdue noted that the change in law from an earlier omnibus appropriations bill to treat forest fires as disasters under federal regulations doesn't go into effect until fiscal year 2020 and that, until then, the Forest Service has to take money from the forest suppression account to fight fires when the agency runs out of firefighting funds.

Zinke said that he and Perdue are "hand in hand" on the forest fire issues.

President Donald Trump also issued a statement Tuesday urging Congress to act on forest management.

House Agriculture Committee Ranking Member Collin Peterson, D-Minn., said that if Congress does not pass the bill during the lame-duck session, he would want to bring it up again in January, when he will chair the House Agriculture Committee, the Red River Farm Network reported Monday.

Peterson also said House Agriculture Committee Chairman Mike Conaway, R-Texas, dropped a controversial food stamp provision last week, Red River said.

"I want the (agriculture) committee organized as soon as possible so I can take the bill that we have now, pass it in the House and send it over. Even if [Senate Agriculture Committee ranking member Debbie] Stabenow [D-Mich.] doesn't have everything that she wants, let her vote against it if that's what she wants to do," Peterson said.

Tom Sell, a partner in Combest, Sell and Associates, said that Conaway is starting to realize achieving more on work requirements in the nutrition title of the farm bill may be hopeless, Red River said.

"There's been a lot of good work behind the scenes to lay the groundwork for areas of compromise in the titles of the bill," said Sell. "All of the elements are there to get it done."

Peterson, who spoke to the Minnesota Farm Bureau and Minnesota Farmers Union conventions over the weekend, said that the bill is "a moving target; I think we have nutrition worked out, but then it was CSP [Conservation Security Program], then it was payment limits and then it was forestry," according to the Red River report.

Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, told reporters on Tuesday that he believes the bill might be added to the fiscal year 2019 appropriations bill that Congress is supposed to pass by Dec. 7. That way, the House Republican leadership can avoid challenging the Hastert Rule under which Republican leaders rarely bring up a bill that does not have majority Republican support, Grassley added.

Grassley said he learned that piece of information in a call with a conferee to inquire about how much time the farm bill may take on the Senate floor. Grassley said he made the inquiry because he is trying to figure out the strategy for the criminal justice reform bill that he and Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., are trying to pass. Grassley declined to name the conferee and said he had not discussed the content of the bill as part of that call.

Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., said in a speech to the North Dakota Association of Soil Conservation Districts on Tuesday that he is working to ensure that the final version of the farm bill "provides relief from Natural Resources Conservation Service regulations," maintains both the Environmental Quality Incentives Program and the Conservation Stewardship Program, expands the Conservation Reserve Program and maintains "strong land-grant formula research funding."

Russell Group President Randy Russell said it's understandable to have skepticism about lawmakers reaching an agreement by the end of the lame-duck session, Red River reported.

"Consider what's lost if a bill isn't completed," Russell told the Red River Network. "I don't think anyone wants to start this process all over again and face new risks or threats. This is the time, toward the end of the session, when deals are made. I think that's what we're seeing for the farm bill."

On Friday, Taxpayers for Common Sense and 13 other groups urged members of Congress to oppose any provisions "that expand the already egregious subsidies in the farm bill." 

A coalition of conservation groups, including the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition, urged Congress to retain provisions that assemble data related to conservation programs

Gillibrand Calls on Trump Reject Farm Bill Without MPP Refund

New York Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand says President Trump should reject any farm bill that does not include a refund for dairy farmers who participated in the Margin Protection Program. The farm bill conference committee is reportedly nearing completion of the farm bill, leaving a final version to be passed by the House and Senate before heading to the president’s desk. Senator Gillibrand urged Trump in a letter this week to only support a final bill that includes her Dairy Premium Refund Act,  that she says would “issue a refund to farmers who participated in the failed Dairy Margin Protection Program.” Gillibrand says that Since 2014, thousands of New York dairy farmers paid millions of dollars to USDA for coverage, but when milk prices and feed prices fell at the same time, most farmers “lost money on every pound of milk they sold and never received a payment.” Gillibrand serves on the Senate Agriculture Committee and is considered a hopeful candidate for President in 2020.

Mexico Expects Tariff Deal this Month

Mexico expects the U.S. to stop steel and aluminum tariffs this month, before the U.S. Mexico And Canada sign a new trilateral trade agreement. Mexico expects Trump will agree to lift the tariffs in exchange for signatures on the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement, which updates the North American Free Trade Agreement. A Government official from Mexico says the expectation is that by the time of signing there “will be either a solution or a very clear track” that the tariffs will end, according to Politico. Removal of the steel and aluminum tariffs would allow Canada and Mexico to remove retaliatory tariffs imposed against roughly $15 billion in U.S. exports. A recent report from Farm Foundation claims the retaliatory tariffs in response to steel and aluminum tariffs would cause U.S. exports to Mexico and Canada to decline by $1.8 billion, despite a new trade agreement, if not removed.

FDA: High Oleic Oils Provide Health Benefit

Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb this week announced new health claims for high oleic oils. FDA announced the claims in response to a detailed petition from a biotech company. FDA says manufacturers of high oleic oils can choose to include a qualified health claim on their label stating that “supportive but not conclusive scientific evidence suggests that daily consumption of about 1½ tablespoons of oils containing high levels of oleic acid, may reduce the risk of coronary heart disease.” Edible oils must contain at least 70 percent oleic acid to meet the criteria for the qualified health claim. Gottlieb says the science behind the new qualified health claim for oleic acid, while not conclusive, “is promising.” The FDA evaluated results from seven small clinical studies that evaluated the relationship between consumption of oils containing high levels of oleic acid, at least 70 percent per serving, and improved cholesterol levels, which indicates a reduced risk for coronary heart disease.