USDA Ups FY 2018 Export, Import Forecasts

Forecast U.S. exports for Fiscal Year (FY) 2018 are now seen at the highest level since FY 2014 while agricultural imports are expected at a record mark.Stronger exports of corn and cotton are factors in the increased value of forecast U.S. agricultural exports of $142.5 billion, up $3 billion from USDA's February outlook. USDA now expects corn exports to total $10.3 billion on larger volumes and higher unit values "as weather-reduced crop prospects in South American improve US export opportunities into the summer," the agency said in its Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports. Cotton exports are expected to rise to $6.2 billion, up from $800 million previously on strong foreign demand.The impact of the China antidumping investigation earlier this year that has now been ended on U.S. sorghum appears to have had an impact. "Sorghum exports are lowered, but unit values are revised higher, reflecting strong foreign demand earlier this year, supported by trade data," USDA said.China also factors into the soybean export situation. "Soybean prices have risen sharply in response to crop losses in Argentina, but export volumes are down due to slower exports to China, which will bring total soybean exports down $100 million to $21.9 billion," USDA detailed.Record agricultural imports of $121.5 billion are expected, up $3 billion from the February outlook. "Horticultural products and the livestock, dairy and poultry categories have significant upward adjustments," USDA said, "but higher-projected imports of grains and feed and oilseed products also contributed to the change."The resulting shifts keep the forecast U.S. ag trade surplus at $21.0 billion, just slightly under the FY 2017 result of $21.3 billion. Exports are seen $2 billion above the FY 2017 mark and imports are expected up $2.4 billion from the FY 2017 mark of $119.1 billion which was a record level.