USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) evaluated the outcome of the
2014-2015 outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (bird flu) in
the U.S., concluding the spread of the actual disease was bested by the
effect of the closing of key export markets. “Trade restrictions
during and after the outbreak affected all poultry commodities, but the
overall market impact differed for each commodity, reflecting several
factors,” the report noted. Producers who lost birds or entire flocks
to the disease were negatively affected, but other producers gained
from the increase in prices that followed the reduction in supply, ERS
said. But trade restrictions resulted in “serious” economic losses,
with decreased overseas demand for broiler products, “which led to
lower prices for broiler producers — highlighting the importance of
policy responses to the total cost of the outbreak.” The market impact
of the trade curtailments lasted longer than the direct effects of bird
culls: “Prices for many poultry products remained at multiyear lows in
2016, partly due to lingering export weakness related to the outbreak
and other factors,” according to the report.
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