by Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University
Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist
The
latest beef trade data for November shows continued improvement in beef
exports. November beef exports were 260.7 million pounds, up 2.7 percent
over exports in November 2016. Beef exports have increased year over year
each month in 2017 for the first eleven months of the year. For the year
to date, beef exports are up 13 percent over one year ago.
Beef
exports to the five major destinations are each up for the year to date.
Exports to Japan are up 27.6 percent year over year.
Japan
is the largest U.S. beef export market and accounts for 29.5 percent of total
exports for the year to date. Second largest is South Korea, up 6.1
percent through November and representing 16.6 percent of total exports.
Mexico is the third largest beef export market, up 7.5 percent for the year to
date and accounting for 14.7 percent of beef exports. An 11.1 percent year over
year increase in beef exports to Hong Kong makes it the fourth largest export
market, slightly larger than number five Canada. Hong Kong accounts for
11.1 percent of beef exports with Canada at 10.9 percent. These five markets
represent 82.8 percent of total beef exports for the first eleven months of
2017.
There
is much interest in the market potential for U.S. beef in China since access
was achieved in 2017.
Monthly
beef exports to China are still very small but appear to be growing
sporadically. In November, beef exports to China were 1.97 million
pounds; making China the tenth largest U.S. beef export market. This
level was slightly less than beef exports to the Philippines and represented
0.75 percent of total November beef exports.
USDA’s
Foreign Agricultural Service has projected that China will import 2.26 billion
pounds of beef in 2018. At the current level, U.S. beef exports to China
would represent roughly one percent of Chinese beef imports. If the U.S.
were to increase beef exports to China tenfold to a ten percent market share,
it would make China the fifth largest beef market for beef exports and add
roughly ten percent to total U.S. beef exports.
However,
growth this rapid seems unlikely in 2018. Such a level may be more feasible in
three to five years. Still, it is difficult to anticipate how markets
will evolve and growth could happen more quickly than is apparent now.
Total
U.S. beef exports are projected to increase another 2.5 to 3.5 percent year
over year in 2018 to a new record level. This is expected to include some
growth in exports to China but the total contribution of beef exports to China
is likely to remain limited in the near term. Longer term, there is
great potential for U.S. beef in China.