TPP Poised for a Comeback, Even Without US

Revival of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), thought dead in January after U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the agreement, may be ready to make a comeback.Supporters and detractors of TPP said the deal would not survive after the U.S. withdrawal, but that judgment was premature, according to New Zealand Trade Minister Todd McClay. In remarks to Bloomberg BNA, McClay said momentum is building for the agreement. Meanwhile, the presidents of Peru and Chile July 8 issued a joint statement declaring their "willingness to actively participate in the dialogue for possible alternatives for the application of the TPP-11," a reference to the 11 countries remaining in the agreement after the U.S. exit.Representatives from the remaining TPP countries will meet in Japan starting July 12 to determine what options exist to move the agreement forward without the U.S. The meeting in Japan will not be about decisions, but a chance for a broad discussion by technical representatives to examine issues and mechanisms for implementation to see what could be changed and how.TPP was signed in February 2016 by the U.S. and 11 other countries after nearly eight years of negotiations. Trump withdrew the U.S. shortly after taking office, one of his first official acts as president. The countries remaining in the agreement are Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.Japan and Australia, two of the three largest economies still in the TPP – Canada is also in the top three – are strongly behind efforts to keep the agreement alive. Japan called the meeting after Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) trade ministers met in May in Vietnam, and Australia's government on July 6 said it was "actively engaging with TPP signatories on pathways for giving effect to the TPP."The plan is to keep any changes "to the bare minimum" necessary to activate the deal, McClay told Bloomberg BNA. The activation mechanism is a key point, as under the original agreement, ratification was necessary by countries representing 85 percent of total gross domestic product of the original TPP for it to come into effect. This would have to be changed given the U.S. withdrawal.Peruvian Foreign Trade and Tourism Minister Eduardo Ferreyros said he does not expect any breakthroughs at the meeting in Hakone, Japan, but said TPP is not dead. "The original agreement signed in February [2016] has to change, but I think that progress made in many areas remains valid," he told Bloomberg BNA.