With wheat harvest underway in the Northern Hemisphere and wheat planting underway or complete in the Southern Hemisphere, wheat buyers are beginning to see a downward trend in production numbers. As discussed in the June 15 Wheat Letter, the high quality, high protein wheat supply is shrinking and supporting prices. USDA expects global output to decrease for the first time in five years to 739 million metric tons (MMT) (27.2 billion bushels), down 14.6 MMT (535 million bushels) from the 2016/17 record of 754 MMT (27.7 billion bushels). If realized, production would be 3 percent above the five-year average. United States. USDA forecast U.S. 2017/18 wheat production at 49.6 MMT (1.82 billion bushels), down 21 percent year over year and 15 percent below the five-year average due to an anticipated 10 percent decline in average yield and the lowest number of planted acres since USDA records began in 1919. USDA expects the average yield to be (3.18 MT/ha) compared to the five-year average of (3.14 MT/ha). In the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, USDA reported U.S. farmers intended to plant 46.1 million acres (18.7 million hectares) of wheat for 2017/18. Canada. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) expects wheat production of 29.5 MMT (1.08 billion bushels) in 2017/18. That is down 7 percent year over year because average yield is expected to decline to 47.6 bu/acre (3.20 MT/ha) in 2017/18. Slightly higher planted area will partially offset expected yield declines. StatsCan put planted area at 22.4 million acres (9.07 million hectares) of wheat in 2017/18. Spring wheat planted area rose 2 percent to 15.8 million acres (6.39 million hectares) due to low carry-in stocks and increased price competitiveness with alternative crops. Durum planted area decreased 16 percent year over year to 5.2 million acres (2.11 million hectares) due to high carry-in stocks and lower prices. Canada’s winter wheat seeding decreased 16 percent year over year from a shift to spring wheat. Crop conditions this year are variable with excessive moisture in northern areas while southern areas remain dry. As of June 23, topsoil moisture in Saskatchewan was rated 18 percent short or very short compared to 40 percent short or very short last week. In Alberta, 84 percent of spring wheat is rated in good to excellent condition compared to 83 percent last year. Surface soil moisture is rated 79 percent good to excellent; 14 percent of surface soil moisture is rated excessive. Saskatchewan and Alberta account for roughly 82 percent of 2017/18 planted wheat acres.
Welcome
Friday, June 30, 2017
World Wheat Production to Decline in 2017/18
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst
With wheat harvest underway in the Northern Hemisphere and wheat planting underway or complete in the Southern Hemisphere, wheat buyers are beginning to see a downward trend in production numbers. As discussed in the June 15 Wheat Letter, the high quality, high protein wheat supply is shrinking and supporting prices. USDA expects global output to decrease for the first time in five years to 739 million metric tons (MMT) (27.2 billion bushels), down 14.6 MMT (535 million bushels) from the 2016/17 record of 754 MMT (27.7 billion bushels). If realized, production would be 3 percent above the five-year average. United States. USDA forecast U.S. 2017/18 wheat production at 49.6 MMT (1.82 billion bushels), down 21 percent year over year and 15 percent below the five-year average due to an anticipated 10 percent decline in average yield and the lowest number of planted acres since USDA records began in 1919. USDA expects the average yield to be (3.18 MT/ha) compared to the five-year average of (3.14 MT/ha). In the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, USDA reported U.S. farmers intended to plant 46.1 million acres (18.7 million hectares) of wheat for 2017/18. Canada. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) expects wheat production of 29.5 MMT (1.08 billion bushels) in 2017/18. That is down 7 percent year over year because average yield is expected to decline to 47.6 bu/acre (3.20 MT/ha) in 2017/18. Slightly higher planted area will partially offset expected yield declines. StatsCan put planted area at 22.4 million acres (9.07 million hectares) of wheat in 2017/18. Spring wheat planted area rose 2 percent to 15.8 million acres (6.39 million hectares) due to low carry-in stocks and increased price competitiveness with alternative crops. Durum planted area decreased 16 percent year over year to 5.2 million acres (2.11 million hectares) due to high carry-in stocks and lower prices. Canada’s winter wheat seeding decreased 16 percent year over year from a shift to spring wheat. Crop conditions this year are variable with excessive moisture in northern areas while southern areas remain dry. As of June 23, topsoil moisture in Saskatchewan was rated 18 percent short or very short compared to 40 percent short or very short last week. In Alberta, 84 percent of spring wheat is rated in good to excellent condition compared to 83 percent last year. Surface soil moisture is rated 79 percent good to excellent; 14 percent of surface soil moisture is rated excessive. Saskatchewan and Alberta account for roughly 82 percent of 2017/18 planted wheat acres.
With wheat harvest underway in the Northern Hemisphere and wheat planting underway or complete in the Southern Hemisphere, wheat buyers are beginning to see a downward trend in production numbers. As discussed in the June 15 Wheat Letter, the high quality, high protein wheat supply is shrinking and supporting prices. USDA expects global output to decrease for the first time in five years to 739 million metric tons (MMT) (27.2 billion bushels), down 14.6 MMT (535 million bushels) from the 2016/17 record of 754 MMT (27.7 billion bushels). If realized, production would be 3 percent above the five-year average. United States. USDA forecast U.S. 2017/18 wheat production at 49.6 MMT (1.82 billion bushels), down 21 percent year over year and 15 percent below the five-year average due to an anticipated 10 percent decline in average yield and the lowest number of planted acres since USDA records began in 1919. USDA expects the average yield to be (3.18 MT/ha) compared to the five-year average of (3.14 MT/ha). In the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, USDA reported U.S. farmers intended to plant 46.1 million acres (18.7 million hectares) of wheat for 2017/18. Canada. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) expects wheat production of 29.5 MMT (1.08 billion bushels) in 2017/18. That is down 7 percent year over year because average yield is expected to decline to 47.6 bu/acre (3.20 MT/ha) in 2017/18. Slightly higher planted area will partially offset expected yield declines. StatsCan put planted area at 22.4 million acres (9.07 million hectares) of wheat in 2017/18. Spring wheat planted area rose 2 percent to 15.8 million acres (6.39 million hectares) due to low carry-in stocks and increased price competitiveness with alternative crops. Durum planted area decreased 16 percent year over year to 5.2 million acres (2.11 million hectares) due to high carry-in stocks and lower prices. Canada’s winter wheat seeding decreased 16 percent year over year from a shift to spring wheat. Crop conditions this year are variable with excessive moisture in northern areas while southern areas remain dry. As of June 23, topsoil moisture in Saskatchewan was rated 18 percent short or very short compared to 40 percent short or very short last week. In Alberta, 84 percent of spring wheat is rated in good to excellent condition compared to 83 percent last year. Surface soil moisture is rated 79 percent good to excellent; 14 percent of surface soil moisture is rated excessive. Saskatchewan and Alberta account for roughly 82 percent of 2017/18 planted wheat acres.