It notes that when the House and Senate get back to work, the GOP will have majorities on both sides of Capitol Hill but also will face a September 30 deadline to pass a spending bill to keep the federal government open. That means funding the military, keeping Social Security checks going out and assuring global investors that the world’s leading economic power is not about to grind to a halt.
If Congress fails to act, there will be a government shutdown weeks before a presidential election with early voting already underway in several states. The Hill sees this situation as “a potential loser for Republicans.”
In 2013, most voters blamed Republicans for the shutdown while only 29% blamed President Obama and the Democrats. “The same was true in a 1996 shutdown,” The Hill says and the majority of voters blamed the GOP-led Congress, not President Clinton.”
Then The Hill takes the gloves off to argue that “hardline conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus don’t care about history. They are willing to hold the federal government and fellow Republicans running for election hostage until GOP congressional leaders, Obama and the Democrats agree to more spending cuts.”
At the moment, Freedom Caucus members are already upset with Ryan for not doing more help one of their most prominent members, Rep. Tim Huelskamp, R-Kan., who lost his primary last month.
Also fueling anger inside the Freedom Caucus is the possibility that House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., will not take up a resolution to impeach IRS Commissioner John Koskinen. Ryan is not saying if he will bring the Caucus-led measure to the floor but he has expressed reservations about setting a precedent for impeaching a cabinet or sub-cabinet official, according to Bloomberg. The House hasn’t voted to impeach a Cabinet-level official in nearly 140 years. More than 100 law professors sent a letter to the Speaker last week urging him not to break the precedent.
Meanwhile, Ryan is frustrated by the Freedom Caucus’ refusal to make deals on any of his top priorities as Speaker, The Hill says. The House hasn’t passed an official Republican budget; it has taken no action on a replacement to the Affordable Care Act; and Ryan is stymied on the Transpacific Partnership because the GOP presidential nominee is running as an opponent of free trade. And even as the November election looms closer, Ryan finds himself in a high-profile showdown with those far-right members over the spending bill.
Freedom Caucus members say their only concern is restraining any growth in government spending. They are not persuaded by the fact that the federal deficit as a percentage of GDP has shrunk by about 75% since President Obama’s first year in office. In addition, between 2010 and 2014 discretionary spending as a percentage of GDP declined 25%. Meanwhile, “sequestration” has imposed fixed limits on spending after hardliners demanded it in 2013.
Many Republicans favor a short-term continuing resolution. However, the Freedom Caucus wants a multi-year deal with more sequestration-type restrictions, The Hill says. Their goal is to prevent a future Democrat in the White House and Democratic-majority in the Senate from boosting spending. Ryan is caught in the middle.
In addition, time is short, a fact that puts Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., on the defensive over the stalemate in the House as he tries to shield vulnerable Republican senators from being damaged by a government shutdown, as could happen if the leadership pushes hard for a temporary spending bill that angers some GOP supporters.
The Hill argues that Ryan and McConnell still have scars from the 2013 shutdown and face, once again, an extremely difficult decision regarding whether they permit another yet another shutdown which risks “further dividing a party already split by its presidential nominee.”
So, what will happen? Locking in spending decisions far into the future is extremely difficult under any circumstances and seems unlikely just now. As a result, a modest continuing resolution to avoid any shutdown this fall seems likely. Other than that only emergency measures probably will get much attention while Congress hopes that the election will sort out at least a few issues, Washington Insider believes.