The value of U.S. ag exports rose $625 million, the largest export figure since February and marking a third month in a row of rising export values. Imports, meanwhile, fell $347 million for fourth monthly decline in a row and the smallest import value since November 2015. That month was also the last time that U.S. ag imports were valued at less than $9 billion.
So far in Fiscal 2016, U.S. ag exports are valued at $107.36 billion, down from $120.39 billion at this point in Fiscal 2015. Ag imports are at $94.812 billion, down from the $96.29 billion level seen at this stage last year. For the U.S. ag trade surplus, the cumulative level stands at $12.55 billion, just over half the level seen at this point in Fiscal 2015 of $24.154 billion.
The higher export figure was telegraphed by the International Trade in Good data from last week and the overall International Trade data released earlier today. The updated trade forecasts issued by USDA last week have the export value outlook at $127 billion while imports are seen at $113.1 billion for a trade surplus. of $13.9 billion. With two more months to go, exports need to maintain above $10 billion each month to meet the USDA forecast and imports at around $9 billion. That could result in the U.S. ag trade surplus. being even higher than the updated forecast. And as we've noted, that should mean no more monthly trade deficits.