(DTN) -- Private analytical firm Informa Economics sees farmers planting 89.5 million acres of corn and 84 million acres of soybeans this spring.
"Looking at Informa's latest estimates, there will still be too many acres of everything," DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom said.
For corn, Informa forecasts a year-over-year increase of 1.5 million acres, but that's 640,000 acres lower than Informa's previous estimate. Planting will increase in all the major states, but the Western Corn Belt is likely to plant 800,000 more acres of corn than last year while the Eastern Corn Belt is forecast to plant 350,000 more acres.
Soybean acreage would be up 1.38 ma from last year, but the estimate is down 1.2 million acres from January's estimates. Informa reduced its forecast for the Corn Belt by 1 ma with the remainder coming from the Midsouth and south Atlantic states.
Double-crop soybean acreage is expected to total 4.6 million acres, which is down 485,000 acres from last year.
Informa pegged all wheat acres at 51.2 ma, down 3.4 ma from last year. Winter wheat acreage was adjusted upward based on USDA insurance data, coming in at 36.9 million acres. Spring wheat acreage was estimated at 12.5 ma while durum was estimated at 1.8 ma.
USDA will publish its Prospective Plantings report on March 31 at 11 a.m. CDT.
"Corn ending stocks are already pushing 1.9 billion bushel for 2015-2016, so an increase of 1.5 ma could take 2016-2017 ending stocks back above the 2 bb mark. Soybean plantings are supposed to increase 1.38 ma from last year, following record crops in both the U.S. and Brazil," Newsom said.
"The math gets pretty simple from there. Grain sorghum at 8.434 ma, down 25,000 from last year, could increase considerably following this weekend's forecasted freeze across the U.S. Southern Plains, at a time when last year's piles can still be seen everywhere. And wheat, expected to be down 3.4 ma, could still see a year-to-year increase in ending stocks."
Using a national average yield of 43 bushels per acre, Newsom estimates wheat production at 1.9 bb, down 152 mb from 2015.
"However, the large 2015-2016 ending stocks figure of 966 mb becomes 2016-2017 beginning stocks, bringing total supplies in at 2.975 bb, larger than what was seen last year. If we leave feed demand unchanged at 150 mb, ending stocks could still increase over the previous marketing year," Newsom said. "Given what is expected to be a continued low price, feed demand for wheat could actually increase in 2016-2017, providing more competition for feed grains."
All of that is contingent upon weather developments, Newsom said, noting that the Southern Plains winter wheat growing area could face sub-freezing temperatures this weekend.