Fertilizer Prices Significantly Higher After Attack on Iran

The now closed Strait of Hormuz (hor-MOOZ) moves about 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products daily, totaling about 20 percent of global demand. DTN reports that fertilizer exports also move through the Strait, including about a quarter of the globally traded nitrogen market. Politico said the White House will offer naval escorts and political risk insurance for oil and gas tankers traveling through the Strait of Hormuz in a bid to slow down a surge in energy prices after Iran warned it will attack ships at a choke point in the Strait. “The announcement brought some immediate relief to the overheated crude oil market,” Politico reported. In a Truth Social post, President Trump said he’s ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to provide risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy. “If necessary, the U.S. Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump added.

Syngenta to Cease Paraquat Production

Syngenta announced it will end production of the herbicide paraquat by the end of June. The decision reflects significant competition from generic producers around the world, which has eroded Syngenta’s competitiveness in producing the herbicide. Paraquat is highly effective in controlling weeds and enables agricultural conservation practices like no-till farming, remaining an essential part of the farming toolbox for many growers. First brought to market by Syngenta over sixty years ago, paraquat is today a generic herbicide that’s registered for sale by more than 750 companies. The company only sells the herbicide in a few markets around the world, and it accounts for less than one percent of Syngenta’s global sales. “The decision is only about focusing our resources where they deliver the greatest value for our businesses and customers,” said Mike Hollands, the Head of Syngenta Global Production and Supply. 

Farmers Increasingly Rejecting Data Center Bids for Land

The tech industry’s relentless push for data centers in rural areas is colliding head-on with farmers, who see the projects as a threat to their way of life. Politico said the issue is drawing vocal criticism from conservative candidates for political office and fueling unrest in Republican primaries. Data center supporters are looking at vast parts of the nation’s farmland as excellent sites for the sprawling server-packed facilities they need to support the White House goal of making the U.S. the dominant force in developing artificial intelligence. “Farmers and some of the Republicans vying to represent them say that supporting these projects sends the wrong message when deep-red rural America is being hurt by the president’s tariff agenda and the high cost of living,” Politico reported. Data centers target rural areas because, like farms, they require a lot of land and access to substantial water and electricity supplies.

NACD Applauds “One Farmer, One File” Initiative

The National Association of Conservation Districts applauded the USDA’s launch of the “One Farmer, One File” initiative, which is designed to streamline producer interactions across USDA agencies and reduce the administrative burdens on farmers and ranchers. It’s designed to combine records across USDA, creating a single, streamlined file that follows producers throughout their participation in USDA programs. “Conservation districts work hand-in-hand with producers every day to put conservation on the ground,” said NACD President Gary Blair. “When application processes are simpler, and records are unified, farmers and ranchers can spend less time on paperwork and more time implementing conservation systems that protect soil, water, air, and wildlife.” Streamlined data systems will help conservation districts enhance collaboration and allow conservation planners to more efficiently develop and implement conservation plans tailored to producers’ operations. 

The Angus Foundation to Award Five Student Scholarships

As the next generation of cattlemen and women prepare to lead the industry forward, the Angus Foundation is providing support through its Commercial Cattlemen Scholarship Program. This spring, five students will receive scholarships to help further their education and enhance their careers in agriculture. The scholarships are awarded to those who use Angus genetics in their commercial cattle operations and must be pursuing an undergraduate degree or enrolled in a vocational program at an accredited institution of higher education. “The scholarship program is designed to support students with a commercial cattle background in the beef industry,” said Jaclyn Boester, executive director of the Angus Foundation. “Supporting youth in their education is an important part of the Foundation’s mission.” Since 1988, the Foundation has awarded over $5 million in undergraduate and graduate scholarships. For more information on the scholarships, go to angus.org/foundation. 

Dairy Checkoff Launches “Dairy Does More”

The dairy checkoff has unveiled “Dairy Does More,” a national marketing platform to help grow demand by reshaping how consumers think about dairy foods. Developed by Dairy Management Inc., the initiative brings to life the “Undeniably Dairy” brand in a contemporary way and reflects a long-term strategy to strengthen dairy’s role in modern lifestyles. DMI said the idea is about unlocking new growth by helping consumers see dairy products of all kinds in a whole new light. “Consumers often put food into boxes,” said Aris Georgiadis, senior vice president of marketing communications. “Milk is for kids, yogurt is for breakfast, and cheese is for dinner, but it’s our job to break those patterns.” Dairy Does More launched March 2 and will be supported by three 30-second digital video spots, social media activations, and in-market programs. State and regional checkoff teams will have opportunities to leverage campaign elements in their social and marketplace programs. 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA will lead things off on Thursday with the weekly Export Sales report at 7:30 a.m. CST. At the same time, Statistics Canada will release their Principal Field Crop Area estimates ahead of the spring planting season.

Weather

A disturbance continues to produce areas of heavy rain in the Ohio Valley on Thursday, but flooding has also been a problem in this area this week. Reductions in drought are occurring, though. Another system in the West will move into the Plains later Thursday and produce areas of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe across the Central and Southern Plains with all hazards being possible.

Farmer Sentiment Rebounds

Farmer sentiment improved in February as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index rose from 113 points in January to 116. The Current Conditions Index increased by 11 points, while the Future Expectations Index dropped one point. The Future Expectations Index this month was 45 points lower than last year’s February index, reaching its lowest level since September 2024. Although concerns about agricultural exports moderated somewhat from the previous month, they’re still higher than those expressed in December. In addition, the percentage of respondents who think the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” declined for the second month in a row. Almost 44 percent of respondents to the survey indicated that their farm operations were worse off in February than they were a year earlier. About 15 percent of respondents plan to reduce the size of their operations, while 34 percent said they don’t plan to grow at all. 

Farm Machinery Manufacturers Facing Headwinds

The U.S. farm machinery equipment market experienced challenges across many fronts in 2025. Recent data suggests many new and used equipment sales categories continued to decline last year. Additionally, lower grain prices and farm incomes, along with the elevated cost of borrowing money, have dampened farmer demand for equipment and machinery. Major manufacturers like Deere, CNH Industrial, and AGCO are adjusting their inventories by scaling back production. Farmdoc Daily from the University of Illinois said the most significant challenge was the tariffs implemented in 2025, which further squeezed manufacturer margins. In 2020, farm tractor sales grew by 17.7 percent, and combine sales rose by almost five percent. A market downturn became more pronounced in 2023 and continued sharply the following year. But despite the decline in sales, machinery and equipment prices remain high. The National Agricultural Statistics Service said the index for machinery prices increased 0.8 percent in December 2025 compared to 2024

AFBF Urges Continued Science-Based Response to NWS

As New World Screwworm continues to pose a threat to the U.S. cattle herd and farm economy, American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall sent a letter to USDA urging a continued science-based approach to addressing the threat. The letter urges Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins to keep the southern border closed to cattle imports until it’s clear Mexico is capable of controlling the pest. “To date, the northernmost active case of NWS is only 70 miles from the southern border with Mexico, which is too close for comfort,” Duvall said in the letter. “By trusting the science, USDA can make decisions that ultimately protect the health and economic viability of the U.S. cattle herd.” He also said USDA’s ability to drop sterile flies into the affected area is greatly appreciated, as is Mexico’s willingness to participate in controlling this destructive pest. 

USGBC Members Talk Maritime Shipping in Panama

In February, the U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council conducted a maritime fuels mission in Panama with a delegation of ethanol industry leaders and Council members. USGBC Regional Director of Latin America Marri Tejada (tay-HA-dah) said, “Maritime fuel could be a promising opportunity for the U.S. ethanol industry, representing the next frontier in biofuel integration.” She also said Panama is critical to the global maritime sector, and developing interest in U.S. ethanol as a maritime fuel input in this strategic location will elevate and highlight its benefits to the shipping industry worldwide. During the visit, the delegation engaged a broad range of stakeholders, including government officials, the Panama Canal Authority, private sector operators, industry associations, and members of the international maritime community. A key objective was assessing the feasibility of integrating ethanol into Panama’s maritime fuel sector, aligned with the country’s decarbonization roadmap, and the Panama Canal’s evolving fuel strategy.  

Brazil Soybean Crop Forecast Shrinks

Consultant groups like AgRural and StoneX lowered their forecasts for Brazil’s 2025-2026 soybean output, as yield losses caused by bad weather in the state of Rio Grande (GRAHN-day) do Sul weigh on overall production. AgRural estimated the country’s soybean output at 178 million metric tons, lowering its forecast from 181 million tons, citing those drought-related losses. Those losses were “partially offset by higher yields in other states.” Brazilian farmers had harvested 39 percent of their soybeans as of late last week. StoneX is predicting Brazil’s output to reach 177.8 million metric tons, 2.1 percent less than prior estimates. Despite the downward revision, the new forecast still points to a record crop. StoneX said weather issues have caused some damage to crops, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, where rains arrived late and were quite irregular. There may be revisions yet to come as the harvest cycle in Rio Grande do Sul typically runs later than in other states. 

Corn Used in Ethanol Production Falls

USDA data shows that corn used to produce ethanol last month declined year-over-year. About 461 million bushels of corn were used to produce ethanol in January, down from 467.9 million bushels used in the same month a year earlier. The agency said that, of that total, about 422.9 million bushels were used in dry mill production, while the rest, approximately 44.6 million bushels, were used in wet milling.  Production of dried distillers’ grains with solubles fell to 1.78 million metric tons from 1.85 million tons at the same point last year. Distillers’ wet grains, with 65 percent moisture or more, rose to 1.34 million metric tons, up from 1.26 million. Soybean crush in January jumped to 228 million bushels, up from 213 million during the same month in 2025. Crude oil production rose four percent on an annual basis to 2.63 billion pounds, while refined oil output totaled 1.82 billion pounds, a six percent year-over-year increase. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

On Wednesday morning at 9:30 a.m. CST, the EIA will release the weekly Petroleum Status Report with last week's ethanol production. At 11 a.m. CST, USDA will release their March State Stories report which will include winter wheat condition updates across the U.S. Later in the afternoon at 2 p.m. CST, USDA will release two reports compiled in coordination with StatCan: United States and Canadian Hogs and Cattle.

Weather

A string of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue near the Ohio River throughout the day Wednesday. Some areas of heavy rain continuing from Tuesday could produce some flooding. Additional clusters of thunderstorms have developed in Kansas and Oklahoma Wednesday morning, which continue eastward and should expand farther southeast Wednesday afternoon. A few of those could contain some hail and stronger wind gusts as severe weather starts to become more likely over the Southern Plains for the next several days.

What Iran Means for Global Fertilizer Markets

About 180 million metric tons of fertilizers are consumed each year, and Forbes said roughly 55 to 60 million metric tons of urea move through international seaborne trade annually. The Middle East accounts for approximately 40 to 50 percent of that traded volume, and nearly all of those exports have to travel through the Strait of Hormuz (hor-MOOZ). “In other words, close to one-quarter of the globally traded nitrogen fertilizer, and a meaningful share of total nitrogen production, moves through a single maritime choke point that is now threatened by war,” Forbes said. The Associated Press reported that oil prices rose on Monday as disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait raised more uncertainty about how U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran would impact the supply of oil to the world’s economy. “Unlike oil, fertilizer markets lack a strategic buffer against shipping delays,” Forbes added. 

Ag Trade Deficit to Drop $21 Billion

USDA is now predicting the agricultural trade deficit will drop by $29 billion in fiscal year 2026, down from about $50 billion a year ago. Luke Lindberg, the USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, said the trade team isn’t done and has set a goal to get back to a trade surplus. “Going from $50 billion forecasted to $29 billion is tremendous progress in one year,” he told Farm Journal. “That’s down 43 percent compared to the same time in 2025, and we’re continuing our efforts to make sure that drops even further.” Exports that saw significant increases by the end of 2025 included dairy, ethanol, and corn exports, up 15, 11, and 29 percent, respectively. The U.S. ag trade balance is the export value minus the import value, and Lindberg said the export side is where the USDA trade team can and will make the most impact on the bottom line. 

RFA: Middle East Uncertainty Shows Need for Year-Round E15

Because events in the Middle East have led to oil prices rising and the expectation of higher gasoline prices, the Renewable Fuels Association renewed its call for Congress to allow year-round E15. “Once again, events in the Middle East and the spike in oil prices demonstrate this country’s overreliance on foreign sources for our energy,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “We need to take every action we can to insulate our nation from these geographically induced price spikes at the pump, and an easy solution is to increase our use of domestically produced ethanol.” A recent national poll showed 78 percent of Americans are very or somewhat concerned about gas price fluctuations. Also, 78 percent believe renewable fuels like ethanol are important to energy independence. If E15 were adopted nationally, it would replace up to half of the 314 million barrels of oil the U.S. imported from OPEC countries in 2025.

USB Celebrates its 35th Anniversary

For 35 years, U.S. soybean farmers have invested together with a singular purpose: to build a stronger, more resilient future for U.S. Soy. As the United Soybean Board marks its 35th anniversary, farmer-leaders reflect on how strategic, farmer-directed investments have reshaped the soybean industry for the better, and how much that momentum continues to accelerate. When the Soy Checkoff was first established under the 1990 Farm Bill, U.S. soybean production totaled approximately two billion bushels annually. Today, that number is over four billion. During that same period, the Soy Checkoff investments helped create new fuel markets, expand exports to more than 90 countries, strengthen U.S. infrastructure, and differentiate soybean varieties to meet evolving global demand. One of the most significant examples of farmer-driven innovation is biodiesel, which was a category born from Soy Checkoff research and market development. 

Sheep Producers Descend on Capitol Hill

This week, sheep producers from across the U.S. are in Washington, D.C., for the American Sheep Industry’s annual fly-in. It’s a packed schedule with face-to-face meetings where members share real ranch and market realities with decision makers. Day one focused on USDA and other ag-related agency briefings. The following days include Capitol Hill visits, time with ASI’s partners at Cornerstone Government Affairs, and a rooftop reception serving American lamb to congressional offices, agency staff, and ASI delegates. ASI leaders will represent the interests of sheep producers on many national issues, including farm bill reauthorization and risk management, trade, H-2A labor challenges, and wool economic assistance. They’ll also discuss explicitly including wool as an eligible commodity in federal trade and market relief programs. The producers will also discuss livestock mandatory price reporting and minor species pharmaceutical use. 

U.S. Wheat Takes Part in Indonesian Trade Mission

Demonstrating American wheat farmers’ commitment to meeting global wheat demand, U.S. Wheat Associates recently participated in a USDA trade mission to Indonesia in early February. The trade mission highlighted U.S. Wheat’s efforts to support sales to the world’s fourth-most populous country. “U.S. Wheat sincerely values the hospitality of our Indonesian partners and the tireless efforts of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service team in Jakarta,” said Joe Sowers, USW Regional Vice President for South and Southeast Asia, who participated in the mission. “The trade mission went beyond a series of meetings and site visits.” It was also an opportunity to participate in high-level meetings between U.S. and Indonesian counterparts to reaffirm the purchase commitments made by Indonesian millers in an effort to balance trade between the two countries. Sowers joined U.S. commodity, agribusiness, and government representatives on the trade mission. The delegation was led by USDA Undersecretary Luke Lindberg.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

On Tuesday morning at 11 a.m. CST, USDA will release their March State Stories report which will include winter wheat condition updates across the U.S. At 2 p.m. CST, USDA will release two reports compiled in coordination with StatsCan: United States and Canadian Hogs and Cattle.

Weather

Another disturbance is moving into the southern Midwest for Tuesday, where showers are already ongoing and will spread across the area throughout the day. By Tuesday evening, yet another area of energy will enter the Plains, producing showers back into Oklahoma and Kansas where some of them could be severe. That will start a string of consecutive days through Friday that could produce severe weather in the region.

USDA Launches “One Farmer, One File” Initiative

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced the “One Farmer, One File” modernization plan, another action designed to put “farmers first” with sweeping technological improvements at the USDA. Speaking during the Commodity Classic, she said USDA’s plan is to create a single, streamlined record that follows farmers, no matter where they go in the USDA system. “The modernization of old, duplicative, wasteful systems has just one goal in mind, which is to improve our customer service so the people we serve are able to farm and feed America and the world,” she said. “So, the ‘One Farmer, One File’ prevents our farmers from duplicating tasks while it increases their productivity and time in the field.” Not only will it reduce the administrative burden for farmers, but it will also make program delivery more efficient, save time for USDA staff, and decrease spending on disparate information technology systems. 

Lesser Prairie Chicken Delisted from the ESA

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service finalized the removal of the Northern and Southern Distinct Population Segments of the lesser prairie chicken from the Endangered Species Act list. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and the Public Lands Council filed litigation to remove the listing when the lesser prairie chicken was first listed in 2022 due to the protections being both legally and scientifically flawed. “The ESA listing of the lesser prairie chicken, coupled with the designation of critical habitat across cattle country, created an unnecessary and unlawful burden for ranchers,” said NCBA President Gene Copenhaver. “Established science has repeatedly proven that healthy rangelands maintained by cattle grazing are exactly where the lesser prairie chicken thrives.” He also said grazing creates robust, sustainable habitat for the bird, and by removing this listing, the Trump administration is helping ranchers continue that stewardship.

World Ag Expo Celebrates a Successful 2026

The 2026 World Ag Expo gathered attendees and exhibitors from around the world in Tulare, California, for the world’s largest annual outdoor agricultural exposition. Over 100,000 attendees joined the 2026 World Ag Expo, with a slight increase in attendance compared to last year. Visitors came from all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and 53 countries. In addition to the attendees, 1,179 exhibitors displayed the latest in agriculture. Attendees explored 2.6 million square feet of exhibit space displaying cutting-edge equipment, technology, services, and solutions. Many exhibitors also showcased live demonstrations, providing a hands-on experience. “After 20 years of exhibiting at World Ag Expo, 2026 still managed to blow us away,” said Todd Blosser of Midwest Bio-Systems. “The flow of people and conversations was great!” The chance to show off their Aeromaster composting equipment that helps dairies turn manure into a real asset means Midwest Bio-Systems will be coming back in 2027. 

U.S. Horticulture Operations Report $18.3 Billion in Sales

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released the 2024 Census of Horticultural Specialties Report, the only source of detailed production and sales data for floriculture, nursery, and specialty crops in 2024. Horticulture sales in 2024, compared to 2019, all show an increase in sales and number of operations due to the addition of mushroom and hemp grown under protection in the latest Census of Horticultural Specialties. The number of horticulture operations in the U.S. totaled 23,060. “The horticulture census provides data on sectors for which there are no other comprehensive data sources,” said NASS Administrator Joseph Parsons. “It’s a valuable tool to highlight the contribution horticulture growers bring to our local, state, and national economies, as well as changes in the industry during the past five years.” Family or individual-owned businesses make up the largest number of operations at 56 percent. 

LanzaJet Wins RFA Industry Award

Sustainable aviation fuel pioneer LanzaJet was presented with the 2026 Industry Award during the National Ethanol Conference in Orlando, Florida. The award from the Renewable Fuels Association honored the company for becoming the world’s first to produce jet fuel from ethanol at a commercial-scale facility last year. “Preparing an entirely new technology means stepping into the unknown,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “It means years of research without guarantees, overcoming technical setbacks, earning trust from partners and regulators, and having the resilience to persist when the path forward isn’t yet clear,” Cooper said. The accomplishment is the result of 15 years of research, innovation, investment, and teamwork. “LanzaJet has not only advanced the global deployment of sustainable aviation fuel but also created new opportunities for decarbonization, economic development, and energy security for the world,” he added. 

Minneapolis Fed: Farm Incomes Drop Despite Abundant Harvests

Farm incomes generally decreased across the Federal Reserve Bank’s Ninth District. That’s according to lenders responding to the fourth quarter Ag Credit Survey by the Minneapolis Fed. Lenders also reported that purchases of capital inputs fell, though farm household spending continues to edge up. Demand for loans increased, while the rate of loan repayment dropped, and loan renewal and extension activity increased. Interest rates for agricultural loans fell notably. Land values in the district barely increased from the previous year, while cash rents were mixed. The outlook for the first quarter of 2026 was pessimistic, and survey respondents expected a further decrease in farm incomes. Capital expenditures also dropped, as 56 percent of the respondents reported decreased investment in equipment and buildings from a year ago, compared with only 11 percent that reported increased spending.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Reports for Monday include weekly export inspections at 10 a.m. CST. After the close, USDA will release a handful of reports such as Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crush for January, and Grain Crushings and Co-products Production for January, all at 2 p.m. CST.

Weather

A small disturbance is crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Monday morning with scattered showers. It's just cold enough to produce snow on the northern edge of it north of the Ohio River, which will continue eastward into the Mid-Atlantic Monday as well. This is the start of a much busier pattern for the week.