EPA Clarification Gives Farmers New Leverage in Right-to-Repair

A new federal clarification has added momentum to the right-to-repair debate, with the Environmental Protection Agency confirming that farmers and independent mechanics can temporarily override emissions controls while repairing agricultural equipment. In guidance issued this week, the EPA said tools and software used to take equipment out of its certified configuration for diagnostics or repairs do not violate the Clean Air Act, as long as emissions systems are restored afterward. Supporters say the move removes a major legal gray area that has limited farmers’ ability to fix modern tractors and combines without manufacturer-authorized dealers. The issue has been central to years of disputes between farm groups and equipment makers over access to repair tools, software and manuals. Industry groups have warned that broader repair access could lead to emissions tampering or safety risks. The EPA action comes as Congress weighs bipartisan right-to-repair legislation and several states move to expand repair access, signaling growing federal engagement in a long-running fight over equipment ownership and control.

RFA Applauds Proposed 45Z Clean Fuel Tax Credit Rule

The Renewable Fuels Association welcomed a proposed rule implementing the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit, calling it a key step toward providing long-awaited clarity for ethanol and other biofuel producers. In a statement, RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper said the proposal from the U.S. Treasury Department reflects progress in aligning the credit with congressional intent by rewarding low-carbon fuel production based on lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions. He said regulatory certainty is critical for producers making long-term investment decisions. The 45Z credit, created under the Inflation Reduction Act, replaces earlier biofuel tax incentives and is designed to encourage domestic production of cleaner transportation fuels beginning in 2025. Industry groups have urged Treasury to clearly define eligibility, emissions modeling and reporting requirements. RFA said the proposed regulation would help strengthen rural economies, support U.S. energy security and accelerate innovation across the renewable fuels sector as producers work to lower carbon intensity and expand clean fuel markets.

USDA Moves to Block Screwworm Threat near Southern Border

USDA says it will release glow-in-the-dark sterile flies along the U.S.–Mexico border to prevent the New World screwworm from spreading north and threatening American livestock. The flesh-eating parasite has recently been detected in northern Mexico, prompting renewed concern among cattle producers and animal health officials. USDA officials said the sterile insect technique, which was used successfully to eradicate the pest from the U.S. decades ago, disrupts reproduction and limits population growth. Ranchers have been urged to monitor herds closely and report suspected cases immediately. Reuters reported that limited production capacity for sterile flies could complicate containment efforts if infestations expand. Livestock groups warn that an outbreak could severely impact cattle supplies and drive beef prices higher.

China’s Rural Policy Plan Emphasizes Grain Security and Technology

China released its annual rural policy blueprint, pledging to strengthen food security, support farm incomes, and accelerate agricultural technology development. The plan, known as the “No. 1 Document,” prioritizes grain and oilseed production amid ongoing trade tensions and climate challenges. According to Reuters, the document calls for stabilizing domestic soybean supplies through improved yields rather than expanded acreage. Officials also highlighted biotechnology, artificial intelligence and mechanization as key tools to boost productivity. The South China Morning Post reported that Beijing is also focused on managing pork and beef output to prevent price volatility. Analysts say the policy underscores China’s effort to reduce reliance on imports while maintaining flexibility in global agricultural trade.

Brazil Soybean Production Outlook Improves as Harvest Expands

Private analysts raised forecasts for Brazil’s soybean crop as harvesting gained momentum and weather conditions remained largely favorable across major producing regions. Brazil is already the world’s largest soybean exporter. Reuters reported that consultancy StoneX increased its production estimate, citing strong yields in central and northern growing areas. Celeres also raised its outlook, pointing to improved field results despite isolated weather issues. According to Agriculture.com, the larger crop is expected to pressure global soybean prices and intensify competition with U.S. exports later this year. Traders say Brazil’s expanding supply could reshape trade flows, particularly to China, the world’s top soybean buyer.

Trump Slashes India Tariffs

President Donald Trump said Monday the United States will cut tariffs on Indian goods to 18% after India agreed to stop purchasing Russian crude oil, marking what he described as a major new trade and energy deal between the two countries. In a social media post, Trump said India also committed to reducing its tariffs and non-tariff barriers on U.S. products to zero and to buying more than $500 billion worth of American energy, technology, agricultural goods, coal and other products over time. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi confirmed the agreement in his own post, saying tariffs on “Made in India” products exported to the United States would be reduced to 18%. The announcement drew an immediate reaction in commodity markets, with U.S. soybean oil futures posting solid overnight gains amid expectations of expanded agricultural trade with India, one of the world’s largest importers of vegetable oils. Neither government released additional details on timelines or enforcement of the commitments.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Reports for Wednesday include the weekly Petroleum Status report from the Energy Information Administration at 9:30 a.m. CST which will include last week's ethanol production. Later on at 11 a.m. CST, USDA will release the State Stories compilation which will include NASS field office reports on crop and range conditions in select states, which will be noteworthy for winter wheat given the cold snap in late January.

Weather

A system continues to bring scattered rain showers into the Southeast on Wednesday. Some spotty showers are found in the Plains as well. It's a bit cold in the Midwest Wednesday, but warmer air continues to lurk across the West and leak into the Plains.

Cattle Inventory Hits a 75-Year Low

The cattle inventory was 86.2 million head on January 1, 2026, which continued a long-standing downward trend. Despite a year of strong prices, the USDA Cattle Inventory Report showed the overall U.S. cattle herd shrank by another 0.35 percent, and it’s now at the smallest level in 75 years. The beef cow herd total was 27.6 million head, down by one percent. The 2025 calf crop was 32.9 million head, the smallest total since 1941. Beef replacement heifers rose one percent to 4.71 million head. All cattle on feed totaled 13.8 million head, a three percent reduction from 2025. The number of milk cows in the U.S. increased to 9.57 million. Dr. Derrell Peel, a livestock market analyst for Oklahoma State University, said the market is likely still trying to find a bottom. “We’re probably stabilizing, but it’s a very slow process,” Peel said. “We’re likely not going to rebuild very fast.” 

EPA is Expected to Reapprove Dicamba

The Environmental Protection Agency is expected to reapprove Dicamba for over-the-top use on tolerant soybeans and cotton for the 2026 season. The Washington Post said the decision is aimed at addressing weed control challenges and will likely include stricter regulations like buffering agents and a possible ban on applying Dicamba when the temperatures are high. The Post saw a draft statement from the EPA, in which the agency called the pending decision the most “protective” Dicamba registration in agency history. Producers were prohibited from using the herbicide last year because of a 2024 court decision vacating previous registrations. It would be the third time that the EPA approved the pesticide. On both previous occasions, federal courts blocked the approvals, citing the underestimation of the risks of chemical drift that could harm other farms.

AMPI Transitioning to Cottage Cheese in Wisconsin Plant

Associated Milk Producers Inc. announced it will transition production at its Blair, Wisconsin, cheese plant from cheddar cheese to cottage cheese. The transition will include a period of downtime, with completion expected in the fourth quarter of this year, with regular operations to resume after that. AMPI is working with impacted employees to provide access to resources, training, and opportunities to apply for jobs at other AMPI facilities. Milk from AMPI member farms will be routed to surrounding plants during the downtime. Customer orders will continue to be filled by other AMPI plants. The cottage cheese produced at AMPI’s Blair facility will be manufactured at one of the largest cottage cheese facilities in the U.S. 

Coalition Sends Letter to Energy Council Co-Chairs

A broad coalition of trade groups representing ethanol producers, petroleum refiners, farmers, and retailers sent a letter to the co-chairs of the new E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council calling for swift action on year-round E15 access. “The window for arriving at a recommended legislative solution is short, with the council expected to submit legislative solutions to the full House by February 15,” the letter said. “We applaud this expedited time frame as fuel producers and retailers are making decisions now about product offerings over the next year, farmers are making planting decisions, and a legislative fix is needed  as soon as possible to provide fuel producers and retailers with a predictable policy framework as we approach the summer driving season.” To “achieve a solution in short order,” the groups urged the lawmakers to build upon HR 1346, the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act, which was amended and offered by Representative Adrian Smith of Nebraska. 

Americans to Eat 1.48 Billion Chicken Wings for Super Bowl LX

New England plays Seattle in the upcoming Super Bowl this Sunday. New England is known for its clam chowder, while Seattle is famous for salmon tossing in fish markets. However, when it comes to the Super Bowl, nothing is hotter than chicken wings. The National Chicken Council released its annual Chicken Wing Report, which projects Americans will eat 1.48 billion chicken wings while watching the Patriots and Seahawks battle for the Lombardi Trophy. This figure represents an increase of about ten million more wings than last year’s game. “Football is for food, especially when it comes to the Super Bowl, where wings rule the roost,” said NCC Spokesman Tom Super. “For football fans looking to add protein to their spreads at an affordable price, wings are kings of the Super Bowl menu.” Laid end to end, the 1.48 billion chicken wings would stretch about 27 times from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, to Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington. 

USDA Trade Mission Underway in Indonesia

The USDA’s Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, Luke Lindberg, arrived in Indonesia over the weekend to begin an agribusiness trade mission. The goal is to expand access to the country’s markets for U.S. goods and boost agricultural exports. The delegation includes 41 agribusinesses, trade organizations, and representatives from four state departments of agriculture. “While Indonesia was our 11th-largest market in 2024, the opportunities here in the world’s fourth most populous nation can’t be overstated,” Lindberg said. Indonesia is an upper-middle-income country with a real GDP of $4.1 trillion, an annual growth rate of five percent, and a large, rapidly-expanding middle class. The mission is also happening at a critical time, thanks to the landmark U.S.-Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, which eliminates tariffs on nearly all U.S. agricultural exports and reduces long-standing non-tariff barriers. 

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

There are no major USDA or macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday. Ag markets will continue to be in tune to weather happenings around the globe, as well as taking clues from outside markets with Monday's risk-off energy trade a source of pressure to row crop futures to begin the week. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives is set to vote on the Senate approved funding bill to end the partial government shutdown.

Weather

A storm system will move across the South on Tuesday. Scattered rain showers are likely for the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, while some light snow will develop across the Ohio Valley. Some other spotty showers will move through the Plains as well, but many areas will stay dry Tuesday.

House Ag Chair Wants Farm Bill 2.0 in February

GT Thompson, the chair of the House Agriculture Committee, has tentatively set a farm bill markup for the week of February 23. Politico said that’s according to three sources familiar with Thompson’s plans. While the formal text of his farm bill has yet to be introduced, it will likely have the same priorities as the version that advanced out of committee in 2024 but never became law. “Committee staff is still waiting for the cost estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, which could delay the markup in February,” Politico said. Two people who were granted anonymity to discuss private details said that House Ag Republicans want to get a floor vote on the farm bill before the Easter recess. The ‘Farm Bill 2.0,’ as Thompson refers to it, will address multiple industry priorities like rural development, research plans, and could be a vehicle for year-round E15. 

RFA: 2025 Ethanol Exports Set a Record

According to data from the Census Bureau, 2025 U.S. ethanol exports through November totaled 1.96 billion gallons, already surpassing the 1.94 billion in 2024, which had smashed the previous record. With one month of data to go, exports were on pace to exceed two billion gallons for the first time, which would represent 13 percent of U.S. ethanol production, also a record. “Continued expansion in the export market provided a tremendous lift for the U.S. ethanol industry in 2025,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “Record exports not only highlight the growing global demand for affordable energy solutions, but also underscore the vital role trade plays in strengthening the American energy sector, driving innovation, and supporting economic growth.” He also said one out of every eight gallons of ethanol produced in the U.S. is being exported, providing savings at the pump and cleaner air for drivers in dozens of countries across the globe.   

CoBank: Farmers Aggressively Sold Soybeans in 2025

U.S. farmers were aggressive sellers of soybeans last fall as prices climbed after trade tensions eased between the U.S. and China. With higher prices and a swifter pace of sales, commercial ownership of soybeans rose sharply while use of delayed pricing programs and basis contracts fell. A new report from CoBank said off-farm grain storage hit record levels last fall, with farmers shifting more soybeans and wheat to commercial storage to free up on-farm space for the record corn harvest. Grain company ownership of soybeans in commercial storage jumped to 73.6 percent as of November 30, up from 66.3 percent the previous year as farmers sold soybeans at a faster pace. “Any material increase in corn and wheat prices will likely be met with heavier selling pressure compared to soybeans, which already experienced a higher level of farmer selling last fall,” said Tanner Ehmke of CoBank.

Wheat Growers Elect a New President

The National Association of Wheat Growers elected Jamie Kress as its new President during the 2026 Annual Conference in Washington, D.C. Jamie and her husband, Cory, own and operate an 8,500-acre dryland farm in eastern Idaho. They grow winter and spring wheat, plus a variety of rotational crops. Kress most recently served as president of the Idaho Grain Producers Association, the first woman to hold the role. “It’s an honor to serve as the president of the Wheat Growers at such a pivotal time for agriculture,” Kress said. “I am inspired by the resilience and innovation of wheat growers across the country, and I am committed to leading with collaboration and purpose.” One of her biggest goals for the Wheat Growers is to elevate the voice of every grower in Washington, advance policies that empower producers, and secure a strong, sustainable future for the nation’s farmers and rural communities. 

USGBC Hails Agreement with El Salvador

The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office released a statement saying the United States has signed another agreement on reciprocal trade, this time with El Salvador. Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Trade Representative, signed the agreement with El Salvador’s Minister of Economy, Maria Luisa. The agreement commits El Salvador to addressing and preventing barriers to U.S. agricultural products in the market, such as fumigation requirements, facility registration, product registration, and acceptance of currently agreed certificates issued by U.S. regulatory authorities. “U.S. DDGS’ exports are up in the first quarter of the 2025-2026 marketing year, and with this agreement, we hope we will continue to see a rise in trade with those products and others the Council represents,” said USGBC President and CEO Ryan LeGrand. “The U.S. Grains and Bioproducts Council is pleased to see the first agreement on reciprocal trade in the Western Hemisphere.”  

Young Farmers Concerned About Land Survey

The National Young Farmers Coalition expresses deep concern over the continued delay of the 2024 Tenure, Ownership, and Transition of Agricultural Land Survey, originally scheduled for release on October 31, 2025. The survey aims to provide important insights into the trends and patterns of ownership of agricultural land across the U.S. “Without the TOTAL Survey, we’re flying blind on one of the most urgent issues in agriculture, which is land access,” said Vanessa Garcia Polanco, the government relations director with the National Young Farmers Coalition. “This delay prevents policymakers, advocates, and farmers from understanding the scale of farmland loss, speculation, and consolidation, and from acting to keep farmers on the land.” Young Farmers calls on the administration to release the critical information they’re looking for, and they had planned to hold a congressional briefing upon the Survey’s release to discuss how the data should inform proactive federal policy. 

Monday Watch List

Markets

On Monday, USDA will release their weekly Export Inspections report at 10 a.m. CST. Later in the afternoon following the close, USDA will release four reports all at 2 p.m. CST: Flour Milling, Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production, and Fats and Oils (Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption, and Stocks).

Weather

A relatively quiet and cold situation is covering the eastern half of the country on Monday, though some snow is moving through Michigan into Ohio. This may interfere with Punxsutawney Phil's season weather prediction forecast Monday morning. Warmer air in the West is trying to spread eastward and will melt some of the lingering snow across the South-Central states.