Farmers for Free Trade Kicks Off National USMCA Roundtables

Farmers for Free Trade held the first of a series of nationwide USMCA roundtable discussions in San Antonio, Texas. The event took place in the same hotel where President George H.W. Bush signed the North American Free Trade Agreement in October 1992. The discussion brought together farmers, agribusiness leaders, and local officials to highlight what’s at stake as the mandatory six-year review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement approaches this summer. The message was clear that USMCA is the backbone of American agricultural trade, and farmers need Congress to prioritize its renewal. Venus Welch-White of CropLife America spoke during the roundtable, saying that a full renegotiation would create a slippery slope of uncertainty for agriculture, urging policymakers to maintain the provisions that are already working. Brian Kuehl (KEEL), executive director of Farmers for Free Trade, said agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico grew from $9 billion in 1992 to $58.8 billion in 2025. 

USDA Relocation Plans Moving Forward

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced the imminent disposal of USDA’s South Building and Braddock Place, designed to reduce the real estate footprint of the U.S. Government in the National Capital Region. “This is a long overdue move to protect the American taxpayer dollars from being wasted on expensive real estate inside the Washington, D.C., area when our government should be closer to the producers we serve,” Rollins said. “More than 85 percent of the South Building is unoccupied, and there’s a $1.6 million backlog in deferred maintenance.” She also said it’s “unacceptable” to put these costs on the U.S. taxpayer. “We’re being strong stewards of taxpayer dollars while also ensuring top-notch customer service and fulfilling our promise to American farmers,” Rollins added. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden added that the massive, underutilized real estate footprint wasn’t sustainable in the USDA budget. 

Ethanol Output Drops, Inventories Hit One-Month High

The Energy Information Administration said U.S. ethanol output was down modestly during the week ending on February 20, while ethanol inventories rose to the highest level in a month. Production fell to an average of 1.113 million barrels a day, which the agency said was down from 1.118 million the previous week. The bulk of the losses were in the Gulf Coast region, where output dropped to an average of 21,000 barrels a day from 29,000 barrels during the prior week. West Coast production was down by a thousand barrels a day to 9,000. In the Midwest, output slightly increased to 1.06 million barrels a day, on average, from 1.058 million barrels the week before. East Coast and Rocky Mountain production were both unchanged at an average of 11,000 barrels daily. Ethanol inventories on February 20 rose to 25.646 million barrels, the most in storage since the seven days ending on January 16.

Dairy Showcasing Innovation at Expo West

Dairy Management, Inc. is positioning itself as a strategic innovation partner and resource to the nearly 70,000 entrepreneurs, investors, brands, and retailers who will attend the Natural Products Expo West. The event is March 3-6 in Anaheim, California. Expo West is the largest trade show of its kind in North America for the consumer-packaged goods and natural products industry. This will be the third straight year DMI will be at the event, with the checkoff seeking to demonstrate how dairy can fuel breakthrough product concepts and how innovators can tap into its resources to accelerate speed to market. “We’re at Expo West to show entrepreneurs and innovators what’s possible with dairy and how the checkoff’s support and research network can help them bring ideas to life,” said Maria Buerk, executive vice president of innovation for DMI. Headlining DMI’s presence at its booth is a new concept: cottage cheese ice cream. 

2026 Severe Weather Forecast Shows Fewer Tornadoes, More Heavy Rains

AccuWeather long-range experts say the 2026 severe weather season is shaping up to be significantly different from last year’s exceptionally active spring that saw hundreds more tornadoes compared to the average. While tornado activity is expected to trend lower this year compared to 2025, the risk will shift toward more frequent and heavier downpours, flooding, and damaging straight-line wind events. The Severe Weather Forecast predicts an increased risk of severe weather episodes across the eastern Plains into the mid-Mississippi River Valley and western Ohio Valley in March and April. Cooler and more stable air may limit severe storms farther north early in the season before conditions get more favorable in late April and May. “Flash floods and damaging winds can be just as destructive as tornadoes and can often impact a much larger area,” said Meteorologist Alex Duffus. “Flash flooding is a big concern this year.”

National Potato Council Elects New President

The National Potato Council installed its 2026 roster of Executive Committee leaders during the group’s annual Washington Summit. Ben Sklarczyk (SKLAHR-zick) of Michigan is the Council’s new President for the next 12 months. He’s a third-generation grower and owns a hydroponic seed potato operation in his hometown of Johannesburg. A long-time advocate for the industry, Sklarczyk has been involved with the NPC since the early 2000s and joined the NPC Board of Directors in 2010. Before being elected President for 2026, he served for almost a decade on the Executive Committee, holding various leadership roles. As the new president, Sklarczyk said he’s committed to bringing strength and resilience to the potato industry. “Our agenda will include capitalizing on new federal dietary guidelines to promote potatoes as a staple of good health, ensuring fair trading practices for U.S. potatoes globally, and removing non-tariff barriers,” he said. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January Producer Price Index report at 7:30 a.m. CST on Friday. In the afternoon at 2 p.m. CST, USDA will release both the annual Cold Storage and Poultry Slaughter summaries. Lastly, CFTC will round out the week with the Commitments of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CST, with positions as of Tuesday, February 24.

Weather

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue in the dry Southeast on Friday. But the bigger story is a clipper system moving through Canada. While it will have little precipitation impact in the U.S. by itself, it will bring through a burst of colder air for the weekend across the North. That will set up a thin band of moderate snow from Montana through the Northeast for Friday night and Saturday where a few inches will accumulate.

Beef, Most Fertilizers Exempt from New Tariffs

A new ten percent U.S. tariff on goods from around the world took effect on Tuesday. Meatingplace said a list of tariff exemptions included beef, some fertilizers, and metals like steel and aluminum that are already under Section 232 national security tariffs. The ten percent tariff under Section 122 was announced last week after the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s widespread use of tariffs, in place since February 2025. “Section 122 only allows tariffs for 150 days without congressional action,” Meatingplace said. “The President had said over the weekend he was raising them to 15 percent, the cap set in Section 122, but Tuesday’s action remained at ten percent.” Fertilizers that are exempt from the new import tariffs include urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, along with DAP, MAP, and others. Ammonia, sulfuric acid, and sulfur are not exempt, unless they are imported via the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement.  

Farmers: “Meet Us Where We Are”

Osborn Barr Paramore launched a new report outlining the purchasing mindset of U.S. growers. The new report offers timely analysis on the factors influencing the decision-making of U.S. farmers and outlines where opportunities exist for brands to better serve growers. OBP surveyed 300 corn and soybean growers during the recent harvest season, with the focus on current trends in farm input planning and buying behavior. “Farmers are now saying the quiet part out loud: they need brands to meet them where they are in the face of a market environment that breeds risk and incessant operational evaluation,” said Rhonda Riles, OBP President. “These dynamics have farmers changing their thought processes, and the report dives into those dynamics and provides a couple of ways that brands can start to activate around these insights.” The report, titled “OBPulse: The Purchasing Mindset of Growers,” is available at obpagency.com

National Ethanol Conference Celebrates a Record 2025

Speaking at the National Ethanol Conference in Orlando, Florida, Renewable Fuels Association President and CEO Geoff Cooper celebrated a record year in 2025 for the industry. He also strongly urged Congress and the White House to fully unleash American ethanol to boost the farm economy, reduce consumer fuel prices, and strengthen domestic energy security. “We saw glimpses of our industry’s potential last year, and 2025 was another good year for the U.S. ethanol industry,” Cooper told attendees. “But we could have done so much more if simply given the opportunity.” He also said that opportunity begins with eliminating outdated regulations that restrict E15 sales during the summer driving season. Despite bipartisan support and a broad coalition agreement that included the American Petroleum Institute, legislative efforts to secure permanent, nationwide year-round E15 sales narrowly failed in 2024 and again in early 2026. “Unleash E15!” Cooper said. “Let’s get it done.” 

Lowering Barriers for New and Beginning Farmers

Applications are now open for FarmPath, a national, multi-year program designed to make farming more accessible and achievable for aspiring and beginning farmers across the U.S. The free, three-year program provides practical education in best practices for resilient agriculture and farm management, access to experienced mentors, and connections to a national network of professionals working across food and agriculture. FarmPath integrates training in production skills with in-depth instruction on the systems, markets, and decisions that shape long-term success. “Through structured business training, mentorship, professional networks, and up to $10,000 in implementation funding, FarmPath is Farm Foundation’s direct investment in a new generation of farmers prepared to meet this moment in American agriculture,” said Shari Rogge-Fidler, the president and CEO of Farm Foundation. FarmPath is open to individuals from a wide range of backgrounds. Additional information, eligibility details, and the application are available at FarmPath.org.

February Rural Mainstreet Index Falls Below Growth Neutral

The overall Rural Mainstreet Index dropped below a growth-neutral level of 50.0 for February. That’s according to the most recent monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a ten-state region dependent on agriculture or energy. The region’s overall reading for February fell to 47.9 from 52.0 in January. This marks the 12th time that the index has dropped below growth-neutral since January 2025. “Due to weakness in the farm economy, especially for grain, about 75 percent of bankers support additional Congressional financial support for the agriculture sector,” said Ernie Goss of Creighton University. “They said pullbacks in farm exports during 2025 continue to undermine the regional farm economy.” The February survey showed farm loan delinquency rates plateauing at a modest rate of less than 1.5 percent. The Farm and Ranchland Price Index also fell below growth neutral at 45.5. The overall index ranges from 0 to 100, with growth neutral at 50.0.

Fertilizer Institute Applauds Farm Bill 2.0

The Fertilizer Institute voiced strong support for key conservation, innovation, and nutrient stewardship provisions included in the House Agriculture Committee’s Farm Bill proposal. The organization is grateful that Chairman GT Thompson recognized the important role that nutrient stewardship and conservation technologies play in helping farmers produce abundant, affordable food while protecting natural resources. “These provisions in the draft Farm Bill reflect a practical, science-based approach to strengthening American agriculture,” said Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of the Institute. Of particular importance to TFI is the inclusion of a clear definition of plant biostimulants, as well as an exclusion to ensure that these innovative, nutrition-based products are not regulated as pesticides. “Incentivizing precision agriculture and enhanced efficiency technologies through conservation programs is a smart investment,” Rosenbusch added. “These tools help farmers get the most out of their applied fertilizer and deliver economic benefits on the farm while enhancing environmental protections.”

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Reports for Thursday include Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CST, with data as of February 19. Otherwise, traders and investors will be tuned in for updates as nuclear negotiations resume in Geneva, Switzerland between the U.S. and Iran.

Weather

A system will push through the Southeast U.S. on Thursday with scattered rain showers, although only limited help to the ongoing drought will occur. The next system will be moving through the Canadian Prairies later Thursday, which will bring through some colder air for the North this weekend.

USDA Seeks Farmer Input to Improve Crop and Livestock Reports

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is asking farmers and ranchers to help improve how federal crop and livestock data are collected, saying accurate reports are essential to fair and orderly markets. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced this week that USDA has issued a Request for Information seeking public feedback on its statistical reporting methods. USDA reports on acreage, yields and inventories can significantly influence commodity prices, crop insurance guarantees and marketing decisions. Officials said declining survey participation, shifting planting patterns and increasingly volatile weather have made data collection more challenging. Farm groups and market analysts have raised concerns that outdated methods may not fully reflect conditions on the ground. USDA is seeking ideas to modernize tools, improve producer response rates and better communicate uncertainty in reports. Officials said the goal is to ensure reports reflect real farm conditions without unnecessarily moving markets.

U.S. Farmers Turn to Specialty Crops as Profit Margins Tighten

Some U.S. farmers are turning to specialty crops and alternative enterprises as low commodity prices and high input costs squeeze traditional farm profits. Extension specialists say interest is rising in wine grapes, specialty grains, produce and agritourism ventures. On-farm processing and direct-to-consumer sales are also drawing attention as farmers look to diversify income streams. USDA data show fertilizer, fuel and equipment costs remain elevated, while corn and soybean prices have struggled to recover. Farm economists say diversification can help spread financial risk, though it often requires new skills, marketing strategies and upfront investment. Producers caution that specialty agriculture is not a solution for every operation, particularly large-scale farms. Still, many see diversification as a way to adapt as market volatility and cost pressures persist across U.S. agriculture.

AI and Precision Technology Gain Momentum on U.S. Dairy Farms

Artificial intelligence and precision technology are playing a growing role on U.S. dairy farms as producers seek greater efficiency and ways to manage ongoing labor shortages. Dairy cooperatives and technology firms say AI-driven tools can track milk production, feeding behavior and animal health indicators in real time. Early detection of illness allows farmers to treat cows sooner, helping reduce losses and improve herd performance. Industry analysts say adoption is accelerating as tight margins push farms to produce more with fewer workers. USDA officials note that digital tools are increasingly integrated into productivity, animal welfare and conservation programs. Smaller dairies still face cost and broadband access challenges, but experts say technology is becoming more accessible as prices decline and rural connectivity expands. Analysts expect precision tools to play a larger role in future dairy management decisions.

Farm Groups Urge Congress to Move Quickly on 2026 Farm Bill

U.S. farm groups are urging Congress to move quickly on a new Farm Bill, warning that continued delays could increase uncertainty for producers heading into the 2026 growing season. Commodity organizations say programs covering crop insurance, conservation, nutrition assistance and farm safety nets need long-term stability. Congressional hearings are underway, but farm leaders say producers need clarity well before planting and financing decisions are finalized. Agricultural economists note that high input costs, volatile weather and global competition have increased reliance on federal support programs. Farm groups warn that a delayed bill could complicate lending decisions and participation in conservation initiatives. Congressional leaders say negotiations are ongoing but acknowledge challenges in reaching bipartisan agreement. Farm organizations say timely passage is critical to maintaining confidence in the U.S. farm economy.

U.S. Meat Exports Face Growing Global Competition

U.S. meat exporters are facing increased pressure overseas as global production rises and price-sensitive buyers look for lower-cost supplies. USDA data show beef and pork exports remain strong by historical standards, but shipments have softened in several key Asian markets. Industry groups say a strong U.S. dollar, higher production costs and growing competition from South America are affecting price competitiveness. Export markets are critical to U.S. livestock prices, particularly for cuts less favored by American consumers. The U.S. Meat Export Federation says trade access plays a major role in supporting farm-level returns. Trade officials say ongoing negotiations and market development efforts are focused on maintaining access and expanding demand. Industry leaders warn that continued competition could pressure producer margins if exports slow further.

New Materials Research Could Improve U.S. Farm Equipment Durability

U.S. researchers are developing advanced materials that could make farm equipment lighter, stronger and more durable, potentially lowering costs for producers. Scientists at several Midwestern universities are studying bio-inspired materials designed to flex under stress without breaking. The materials could be used in irrigation systems, crop supports, and key machinery components exposed to heavy wear. Engineers say improved durability could reduce downtime during critical planting and harvest periods, when equipment failures are especially costly. Industry analysts note that materials innovation is becoming increasingly important as farms grow larger and equipment demands increase. Researchers say the work highlights how engineering advances can support efficiency, sustainability and long-term productivity in U.S. agriculture.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

On Wednesday, the EIA will release their weekly Petroleum Status report at 9:30 a.m. CST which will include last week's ethanol production. Otherwise, there are no other major economic or agricultural reports scheduled. Traders will be on the lookout for clues of increased soybean business to China after markets reopened following the Lunar New Year holiday break.

Weather

A clipper system continues to move through southeastern Canada with snow showers into the Northeast on Wednesday. It has laid down a cold front from the Northern Plains to the Midwest, and another system will essentially move along the front throughout the day, spreading some spotty showers across the area as it moves southeast.

Ag Industry Calls for Trade Certainty

On Saturday, President Donald Trump said he will increase a temporary tariff from ten percent to 15 percent on U.S. imports from all countries. Reuters said that’s the maximum level allowed by law, and he made the move after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down his tariff program. Ag groups responded to the Court’s decision by calling on the White House for increased certainty in trade policy and to carve out exceptions for agricultural inputs in any new tariffs. While the administration said it will pursue its trade agenda through other mechanisms, ag groups and other businesses urged the White House to recalibrate its tariff policy. “We ask the administration to find other ways to resolve trade disputes and finalize recently announced trade frameworks,” said American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall. “America’s farmers and ranchers need stability to ensure that families across America can put food on their tables.”

Enrollment Open for the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins said the enrollment period is open for the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, which provides $11 billion in one-time bridge payments to row crop producers and $1 billion for specialty crops. Rollins said improving the farm economy is a top priority of the agency. “We have simplified and streamlined the application process for the bridge program to ensure producers get the financial assistance they need as quickly as possible while kicking off their spring planting season,” Rollins said. “If our farmers are not able to economically continue their operations, then we will not be able to feed ourselves in this country.” Pre-filled applications will be available online to producers with a Login.gov account who filed their 2025 crop acreage report for eligible commodities. April 17 is the deadline to submit completed FBA applications. Producers can complete FBA applications online or submit them to their FSA county office. 

Exports Shattered Records in 2025

New statistical reports from the Renewable Fuels Association show the value of the U.S. ethanol industry’s exports rose to a record $7.6 billion in 2025. The rise was fueled by a record 2.18 billion gallons of ethanol exports and 11.6 million metric tons of distillers’ grains shipments. “Growth in the export market provided crucial support for U.S. ethanol producers this past year,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “Our trading partners around the world are increasingly embracing American-made ethanol because it helps lower their fuel costs, reduces emissions, and decreases their reliance on petroleum.” The value of U.S. ethanol exports soared to $4.8 billion, also a record high. Shipments to Canada set an annual record for a single destination, totaling over 792 million gallons. The U.S. remained a net exporter for the 16th consecutive year, as imports accounted for less than 0.1 percent of domestic consumption.

DMC Signup Ends on February 26

Signup for the Dairy Margin Coverage Program ends this Thursday, February 26. The National Milk Producers Federation is urging farmers to apply for the program as part of a risk management strategy that helps dairy producers weather economic swings. “Dairy Margin Coverage is an essential part of a dairy farmer’s business resilience,” said Gregg Doud, the president and CEO of NMPF. “Smaller farmers gain important protection against lower margins, while larger farmers gain catastrophic coverage at little or even no cost.” He added that the signup is the first since the program was reauthorized last year, and includes coverage improvements as well as a 25 percent premium reduction for a long-term commitment. “Farmers can benefit greatly from participating in a program that has literally helped thousands of dairies,” Doud said. Farmers who are interested in participating in the program can complete their paperwork in consultation with their local Farm Service Agency Office. 

Groups Sue EPA Over Dicamba Reapproval

Farmers and conservation groups filed a lawsuit last week challenging the Environmental Protection Agency’s reapproval of Dicamba herbicide that’s sprayed on genetically-resistant cotton and soybeans. “The re-registration of Dicamba flies in the face of a decade of damning evidence, real-world farming know-how, sound science, and the law,” said George Kimbrell, legal director of the Center for Food Safety and a counsel in the case. “In reality, the Trump administration has once again betrayed farmers and poisoned the environment to pad corporate pesticide profits, so we’ll see them in court.” He also said EPA administrator Lee Zeldin’s “hollow promises” that new restrictions on Dicamba will prevent damaging drift to nearby farms and backyard gardens is totally unsupported by the facts or common sense. “Zeldin insists he’s working closely with the Make America Healthy Again movement to make pesticides safer,” said Nathan Donley of the Center for Biological Diversity. “We aren’t fooled.”

Cattle on Feed, Placements Decline

Cattle on feed on February 1 and placements in feedlots declined year-over-year. That’s according to the recent Cattle on Feed Report. About 11.5 million head of cattle and calves were on feed at the beginning of the month, which the USDA said is down two percent on an annual basis. Placements last month totaled 1.74 million head, down five percent from the same month a year ago. The highest marketing level came in the 700–799-pound class, totaling 455,000 head. Under 600 pounds totaled 360,000 head, while 600-699 pounds totaled 365,000 head. Cattle placements between 800-899 pounds totaled 381,000 head. Placements included about 105,000 head weighing 900-999 pounds, and 70,000 head weighing 1,000 pounds or higher. The agency also said marketings of fed cattle in January plunged 13 percent on an annual basis, and other disappearance fell by eight percent to 55,000 head.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Tuesday looks to be another calm day for scheduled reports but on Wall Street it will be a busy day for company earnings announcements for the fourth quarter of 2025. As for agriculture specific reports, USDA will release their monthly Cold Storage after the close at 2 p.m. CST.

Weather

A clipper system is moving through Canada on Tuesday, getting into the Great Lakes with some areas of snow. The clipper will pull some warmer air eastward with it too, but northern areas will get a little cooler behind its cold front going into Wednesday. The next system in the pipeline is moving into the Pacific Northwest with widespread precipitation Tuesday as well.

Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs

The Supreme Court turned the U.S. trade landscape upside down with a decision on Friday striking down the centerpiece of President Donald Trump’s tariff program. Just over one year into the President’s second term, the 6-3 ruling in “Learning Resources, Inc. v Trump” comes after Supreme Court justices showed skepticism in questioning during oral arguments last November. Yahoo Finance said the ruling appears to halt a massive section of Trump’s tariffs that he announced last year on what he referred to as “Liberation Day. Trump said a 1977 law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act gave the president the ability to declare an economic emergency and take action, but it doesn’t specific tariffs as a specific remedy to the emergency. “IEEPA doesn’t authorize the President to impose tariffs,” read the decision by Chief Justice John Roberts. The Court’s decision doesn’t appear to address the question of eligibility for tariff refunds, which is likely to lead to a complex legal process for companies. 

Reaction to Supreme Court’s Tariff Decision

Farmers for Free Trade reacted to the Supreme Court’s 6-3 decision to strike down President Trump’s authority on global tariffs implemented through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Executive Director Brian Kuehl (Keel) said the decision is an important step toward restoring predictability and the rule of law in American trade policy. “Tariffs imposed under IEEPA have been devastating for American farmers, driving up costs for inputs like fertilizer, equipment, and parts while triggering retaliatory tariffs that cut off critical export markets,” Kuehl said. “Farmers have been caught in the crossfire, paying more for what they need while losing access to the customers they depend on.” He also said that Farmers for Free Trade remains deeply concerned that the administration will reimpose tariffs through other means. “The focus now should be on stable trade relationships and expanding market access for American agricultural products,” Kuehl added. 

Farm Bill 2.0 Provides Additional Certainty

House Ag Committee Chair GT Thompson recently released the text of Farm Bill 2.0, or the “Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026.” Groups like the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association welcomed the provisions that strengthen the agriculture measures included in the One Big, Beautiful Bill. “We appreciate the Chairman’s leadership and diligent work to provide legislative answers to the ongoing needs of cattle producers,” said Gene Copenhaver, president of the NCBA. “The bill provides important provisions to streamline voluntary conservation programs, protect grazing as a land management tool, address the critical shortage of rural veterinarians, and establish an important pilot program to safely explore better options for direct-to-consumer sales of locally-raised beef.” Among the improvements, Farm Bill 2.0 expands access to credit and increases outdated agricultural loan limits, amends veterinary grant programs to relieve ongoing rural veterinary shortages, and clarifies animal disease traceability eligibility. 

Dairy Group Appreciates USDA Purchases

Dairy farmers thanked the USDA and Secretary Brooke Rollins for taking significant steps to boost low milk prices and expand dairy consumption through significant Section 32 purchases. The agency is buying a balanced and effectively targeted mix of dairy products, including the first major butter purchases in five years. “Dairy farmers have shared in the struggles faced throughout the agricultural economy, and these purchases will provide important relief to producers who will benefit from the additional demand, helping them to provide nutritious dairy products to Americans and the world,” said National Milk Producers Federation President and CEO Gregg Doud. USDA is buying $75 million worth of butter, $32.5 million in cheddar cheese, $20.5 million in fresh fluid milk, $10 million in Swiss cheese, and $10 million in ultra-high temperature (shelf-stable) milk. The $148 million in purchases is part of a $232 million purchase announcement for numerous agricultural commodities. 

American Sheep Industry Convention Wraps in Reno, Nevada

The American Sheep Industry Association concluded its 2026 Annual Convention in Reno, Nevada. Producers and partners came together for four days of working sessions focused on production realities, market dynamics, and policy priorities shaping the U.S. sheep industry. “Convention is where our best ideas get pressure-tested and then sent back home to work,” said Ben Lehfeldt (LAY-felt), ASI President. A major focus of the week centered on the American lamb supply chain, and what it will take to expand reliable domestic availability, while protecting and rebuilding demand across foodservice, retail, and consumers. Conversations tied to long-term industry planning emphasized the importance of collaboration, aligning productivity, product consistency, and demand-building so the full supply chain can respond when market opportunities grow. “When demand grows, our job is to help the whole industry be ready for it, through smarter education, practical tools, and consistent marketing that keeps American lamb top of mind,” said ASI Lamb Council Chair Lynn Fahrmeier. 

OK Governor Declares State of Emergency

A wildfire crisis in Western Oklahoma has intensified significantly, with over 155,000 acres consumed across three counties. In response to the rapid spread and extreme fire weather, Governor Kevin Stitt has declared a state of emergency for each county to accelerate the deployment of critical resources and state support. As local residents and officials survey the destruction, the full extent of the loss remains unclear for now, but the needs of the agricultural community are dire. With calving season underway in Oklahoma, the fires have created a secondary crisis: a significant number of orphaned calves requiring specialized care. Ranchers are facing a critical shortage of hay and livestock feed, fencing materials, and emergency funds for veterinary care. The Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Foundation has established a relief fund to help the producers affected by the severe wildfires. For information or to donate, go to okcattlemen.org. 

Monday Watch List

Markets

Monday looks to be mostly quiet in terms of reports, although USDA will release their normal Weekly Export Inspections report at 10 a.m. CST. Otherwise, traders and investors will be in tuned for updates on geopolitical issues such as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. This has been the reason for added risk premium in markets over the past few weeks.

Weather

Across much of the central U.S., temperatures will be below average Monday with mostly dry conditions, although a few lake-effect snow showers will linger in the Great Lakes. The next system will arrive across the Northern Plains late tonight into early Tuesday.

Trump Order Protects Glyphosate, Phosphate Production

President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order mobilizing the Defense Production Act to protect the domestic production of elemental phosphorus and glyphosate-based herbicides. The order says these two critical inputs are essential to military readiness and America’s agricultural strength, respectively. The Order finds that any interruption of the supply of either of these critical materials could leave the defense industrial base and food supply vulnerable to hostile foreign actors. Reuters said the order underscores U.S. farmers’ critical need to have access to the herbicide. Bayer, the only domestic supplier of glyphosate, produces roughly 40 percent of the world’s supply at its U.S. facilities, and the company added that this move would not lead to shortages in other countries. However, not everyone applauded the move by the White House. The New York Times reported that the move set off immediate alarms among the supporters of the Make America Healthy Again movement. 

Bayer Proposes a Roundup Settlement

Bayer and attorneys for cancer patients announced they’ve reached a proposed settlement this week worth $7.25 billion. The goal is to resolve thousands of lawsuits alleging the company failed to warn people that Roundup, its most popular weed killer, could cause cancer. The AP reports the settlement came about as the Supreme Court is preparing to hear arguments in April on Bayer’s assertion that the Environmental Protection Agency’s approval of Roundup without a cancer warning should invalidate claims filed in state courts. “Patients would be assured of receiving at least some settlement money,” the Associated Press reported, “even if the Supreme Court ruled in Bayer’s favor.” Bayer would also be protected from potentially much larger financial penalties if the Court ruled against the agrochemical manufacturer. The deal would require Bayer to make yearly payments into a fund for up to 21 years, which could eventually be worth $7.25 billion. 

Farm Journal Reports Rural Veterinarian Shortage

Farm Journal Foundation launched the Veterinary Workforce Solutions Program in 2022 to address the nationwide shortage of veterinarians in rural America. The shortage is having significant consequences on farmer livelihoods, food security, and rural economic growth. In the last four years, the Foundation discovered that the shortage is multidimensional, with high student debt being just one factor. Other factors include a lack of early exposure to the opportunities offered in this field, mentorship, and business training, are equally as significant. Recruitment and retention must also be addressed together through a coordinated education-to-practice continuum. Sustainable progress in getting more vets into rural areas depends on local and state infrastructure, not just federal-level programs. Young veterinarians often cite business confidence, financial literacy, and consistent community support as key factors in deciding whether to remain in rural practice. University extension partnerships are effective vehicles for delivering targeted business and risk management training for young veterinarians.

More Eggs and Chickens Entering the Production Pipeline

The USDA reported that American hatcheries increased placements of eggs and chicks during the week ending on February 14. Hatcheries set 254 million eggs in incubators during the week, which the agency said is up two percent year-over-year. The average hatchability, which is the number of chicks hatched by eggs set three weeks earlier, was 79 percent. Broiler placements totaled 196 million chicks for meat, also a two percent increase. From January 10 through February 14, placements increased two percent on an annual basis to 1.18 billion. Georgia had the largest number of broiler-type eggs, set at 36.3 billion. Alabama was close behind at 35.9 billion, and Arkansas had 26.7 billion. Those same three states also led the country in broiler chicks placed. Georgia was first at 29.7 million, followed by Alabama at 24.2 billion, and Arkansas at 21.7 billion. 

Congressional Ethanol Group Tweaks E15 Proposal

A council of U.S. lawmakers is trying to break an impasse over access to year-round E15. The Rural Domestic Energy Council has tweaked a proposal that would allow U.S. consumers to use E15 year-round. The Financial Post said both the agriculture and oil groups are deeply divided over the biofuel policy. Year-round access to E15 gasoline at the nation’s pumps would boost profits for U.S. farmers, who need more demand for their corn. The deal is being held up by multiple refiners who are arguing over which of them should qualify for exemptions from blending biofuels. The Council has now raised the number of exemptions allowable on blending mandates. The tweaked plan would limit exemptions on small refinery obligations to 550 million Renewable Identification Numbers per year. That’s 100 RINs per year above the original proposal. It’s a concession to the small and mid-sized refiners who said the current limit was too small. 

NACD Elects New President-Elect

The National Association of Conservation Districts Board of Directors elected Mark Masters of southwest Georgia to serve as the association’s President-Elect. He will serve a one-year term as President-Elect alongside the current NACD President, Gairy Blair, and will assume the role of NACD President in 2027. “I’ve had the opportunity to work alongside Mark for the past few years,” said Blair. “Mark brings dedication to locally-led conservation, and the knowledge and leadership needed to help NACD achieve bold new horizons.” As the Executive Director of the Georgia Water Planning and Policy Center, Masters leverages his wealth of knowledge on issues related to water use and management and supports conservation research and outreach across the country. He’s also a proud graduate of the National Conservation Foundation’s inaugural Next Generation Leadership Institute Cohort. Masters operates a beef cow and timber farm with his family and has three children with his wife, Amy.

Friday Watch List

Markets

USDA will release their delayed weekly Export Sales report at 7:30 a.m. CST on Friday. At the same time, major macroeconomic reports such as fourth quarter 2025 Gross Domestic Product, and December Personal Consumption Expenditure data will be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the afternoon, USDA will release their February Cattle on Feed report at 2 p.m. CST. Finally, CFTC will round out the week with the Commitments of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CST.

Weather

A storm system is wrapping up in the Great Lakes and is still producing some heavy snow in Wisconsin and scattered showers across the East. One last system will enter the southern half of the Plains Friday as well with more isolated showers, but will include some snow for Colorado and Kansas.

CoBank: Farmers Increasing Soybean Acres in 2026

Low crop prices and high production costs are weighing heavily on U.S. farmers as the spring planting season draws near and farmers make decisions about which crops offer the most favorable returns. A new report from CoBank said U.S. soybean acreage is projected to increase almost six percent this year, with soybeans pulling acres from multiple crops. The expansion of U.S. soy crush capacity and expectations of continued Chinese demand have lifted soybean prices to more attractive levels than competing crops. “Following recent price rallies, soybeans offer greater profit potential than corn, wheat, sorghum, cotton, and rice,” said Tanner Ehmke, lead grains and oilseeds economist with CoBank. The analysis showed soybean acreage will increase 5.9 percent over last year to reach 86 million acres. Total U.S. corn acreage is projected to be 94 million, down 4.8 percent from last year. Spring wheat acres are expected to drop by one percent to 9.89 million acres. 

USDA Proposes Updates to Federal Line Speed Regulations

The USDA announced proposed updates to federal line speed regulations of poultry and pork establishments operating under modern inspection systems. The agency said these updates reflect years of data and experience, and are designed to help lower costs for American families, reduce outdated regulatory barriers for processors, and support a more efficient and resilient food supply. “These updates remove outdated bottlenecks so that we can lower production costs and create greater stability in our food system,” said Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins. The changes would allow eligible establishments to operate at speeds supported by their processes, equipment, and food safety performance. The Food Safety and Inspection Service would maintain full oversight and retain the authority for its inspectors to slow or stop operations whenever inspection cannot be performed effectively. The proposals are intended to help establishments that have operated under waivers, pilots, and temporary measures for years by giving them more certainty. 

Groups Applaud USDA Line Speed Proposals

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced new actions to reduce line speed processing burdens on meat processing facilities, allowing for greater efficiency while maintaining food safety standards. “The current patchwork approach has created significant uncertainty for companies and has put our members at a disadvantage globally, where other countries operate at faster speeds,” said National Chicken Council President Harrison Kircher. “I want to thank the administration and the Food Safety and Inspection Service for adhering to science-based principles.” The National Pork Producers Council also lauded the move. “Thank you for unleashing the potential to process pork more efficiently while also protecting food and worker safety,” said NPPC President Duane Stateler. “Greater efficiency of increased line speeds provides financial security and more stability for pork producers.” He also said that without the New Swine Inspection System program, it’s likely that U.S. pork producers could have incurred an additional loss of almost ten dollars a head. 

Biofuel Leaders Want Accelerated Action on Year-Round E15

The Renewable Fuels Association, Growth Energy, and the National Corn Growers Association released a statement regarding the lack of progress toward a legislative solution offering consumers permanent year-round E15 access. After reaching an impasse in January, House leaders agreed to establish an E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council, which was charged with reaching a deal on consensus legislation no later than February 15. No such deal was announced as the deadline passed. “House leaders already have bipartisan, consensus legislation that has broad support from the overwhelming majority of biofuels, agriculture, fuel retail, and oil refining interests,” leaders of the three groups said in the statement. “The solution is there on the table, and we urge council members to refocus their attention on proposals that already have widespread support.” They also said E15 champions in Congress and the administration understand that voters want more American-made energy, lower pump prices, and a stronger farm economy, so House and Senate leaders “should listen.” 

National FFA Week Brings Students, Communities, and Agriculture Together

Over one million FFA members, alumni, and supporters will celebrate National FFA Week from February 21 to February 28. It’s an annual tradition coordinated by the National FFA Organization to share the real value of FFA and the impact it has on members every day. “National FFA Week is a time when we showcase the collective impact of FFA nationwide,” said National FFA Advisor, Dr. Travis Park. “Throughout FFA, we see our members stepping up as leaders, innovators, and advocates for agriculture.” Park also said this happens through the dedication of agriculture teachers, FFA Alumni, and Supporters. The six National FFA Officers will travel across the country to connect with members during the week, leading workshops, delivering keynote talks, and interacting with students on a more personal level. “I’m really looking forward to being in North Carolina and seeing FFA show up in so many different ways,” said Trey Myers, National FFA President.

Mizzou Researchers Uncover Key to Growing More Resilient Crops

Farmers are always interested in growing more resilient crops that can survive tough conditions. Researchers at the University of Missouri may have literally gotten to the root of the challenge. Researchers have discovered how a specific protein known as SRFR1 plays a critical role in how deeply plant roots grow underground. What’s even more promising is that they unlocked a way to manipulate this protein to encourage longer root growth, which is a trait that can potentially help plants better withstand drought. This breakthrough could pave the way for genetically engineered seeds that produce more resilient crops. “Depending on the environment, plants sometimes need a longer or shorter root, and we discovered the protein that helps regulate the outcome,” said Walter Gassman of the Missouri College of Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources. ‘Now that we have learned what this protein does, we can manipulate it to help the plant thrive in various environments.” 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Thursday will feature the start of the USDA Ag Outlook Forum with the release of USDA's Commodity Outlook documents at 6 a.m. CST, which will include early forecasts for the 2026-27 marketing years. Later, at 9:30 a.m. CST, the EIA will release their weekly Petroleum Status Report with last week's ethanol production. At 10:15 a.m. CST, new USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez will speak regarding USDA's outlook.

Weather

Swaths of heavy snow could develop across Iowa and southern Wisconsin Thursday, and snow totals could exceed eight inches in some spots. The same storm system could also produce locally strong to severe thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley where damaging winds and hail will be the main threats with any stronger storms. A few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

FFA Says It Will Cooperate with Congressional Inquiry

The National FFA Organization said it will cooperate with a congressional inquiry examining one of its corporate sponsors, while emphasizing its nonpartisan mission and independence from donor influence. The youth agricultural education group released the following statement exclusively to the NAFB News Service: 

"The National FFA Organization is a nonprofit, non-partisan organization that serves to make a positive difference in the lives of students by developing their potential for premier leadership, personal growth, and career success through agricultural education. While FFA accepts support from generous donors and sponsors throughout the agricultural and agri-business community, it does not and cannot advocate the views for any donor or sponsor. FFA has received a Congressional inquiry about one of our sponsors, and it intends to cooperate fully."

At question is FFA’s alleged ties to the Chinese Communist Party through a partnership with Chinese-owned Syngenta Group. FFA declined to provide additional details, citing the ongoing nature of the investigation. The inquiry comes amid heightened scrutiny from some members of Congress over partnerships between U.S.-based nonprofits and companies with foreign ownership ties.

U.S. Elevates Agriculture as National Security Priority

The U.S. government is elevating agriculture to a core national security priority, a shift officials say reflects growing concerns about foreign ownership of farmland, supply-chain vulnerabilities and global food instability. Under a new federal strategy released this week, agriculture will be treated alongside energy and defense as a strategic sector critical to economic resilience and geopolitical stability. The plan calls for tighter scrutiny of foreign investment in U.S. farmland, stronger domestic production incentives and closer coordination between the Agriculture, Defense and Homeland Security departments. Officials said recent disruptions, including trade conflicts, extreme weather and geopolitical tensions, exposed weaknesses in food and input supply chains. Farm groups broadly welcomed the move, saying it underscores the importance of protecting domestic production capacity and rural economies. Critics cautioned that expanded oversight must be carefully targeted to avoid discouraging investment or burdening producers. Administration officials said implementation details will be rolled out in the coming months through regulatory actions and interagency coordination.

U.S. Farm Equipment Market Seen Growing Despite Weak Farm Economy

The U.S. agricultural equipment market is expected to grow steadily over the next several years, driven by demand for precision technology and automation even as many farmers face tight margins. A new industry outlook projects rising investment in GPS-guided machinery, autonomous equipment and data-driven tools designed to cut fuel, labor and input costs. Manufacturers are focusing on high-tech upgrades rather than large volume sales of traditional machinery. The forecast comes as farm income remains under pressure from lower commodity prices and higher input costs, forcing producers to weigh major capital purchases carefully. Analysts said adoption of technology that improves efficiency may continue even during downturns, particularly among larger operations. Equipment makers have scaled back production and dealer inventories following post-pandemic demand spikes. Still, long-term prospects remain positive as labor shortages and sustainability goals push farmers toward automation. Smaller producers, however, may struggle to afford newer technologies without improved profitability or expanded financing options.

U.S. Farm Numbers Decline for Second Straight Year, USDA Says

The number of farms in the United States fell by 15,000 in 2025, continuing a long-term decline in the nation’s agricultural landscape, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported. According to USDA’s annual Land in Farms report, the total number of farms dropped to about 1.865 million last year, down from roughly 1.88 million in 2024. The decline spanned nearly all size and sales categories, with smaller operations — particularly those reporting $1,000 to $9,999 in annual sales — posting the largest losses, USDA data showed. Only operations with annual sales above $1 million saw a slight increase of about 50 farms. Total land in farms also edged lower, decreasing about 0.3% to 873.9 million acres, even as average farm size ticked upward, reflecting a consolidation trend. Analysts said economic pressures, including slim profit margins, rising costs and generational turnover, continue to challenge smaller producers and reshape the structure of U.S. agriculture.

USDA Forecast Shows Slower Farm Wealth Growth, Rising Debt

A new USDA forecast suggests growth in U.S. farm wealth will slow in 2026 while debt continues to climb, reflecting ongoing financial pressures in the agricultural sector. In its first Farm Income and Wealth Statistics update of the year, USDA’s Economic Research Service projects that farm assets and equity, the difference between total assets and total debt, will rise in 2026 but at the slowest pace since 2019–20. Non-real estate assets, including crop and livestock inventories, are expected to decline, even as investment in machinery and vehicles grows. Conversely, farm debt is forecast to accelerate for the third time in four years, raising concerns about solvency for many producers. Key financial ratios also point to tighter production returns relative to asset values. Economists said the outlook underscores persistent challenges facing farmers as they balance high costs and variable commodity markets heading into the 2026 production cycle.

United Soybean Board CEO Resigns Amid Internal Tensions

Lucas Lentsch has resigned as chief executive officer of the United Soybean Board, the farmer-led organization that directs checkoff funds for research and promotion, the board announced Friday. Lentsch, who had led the board since 2024, submitted his resignation effective immediately following the group’s February meeting. The board said interim leadership will be provided by Darryl Chatman, the organization’s executive vice president of compliance, as directors begin a national search for a permanent CEO. The resignation comes amid reports of internal disagreements over management authority and staffing decisions, with some board members seeking limits on executive autonomy. Sources familiar with the situation characterized a rift between Lentsch’s leadership style and the board’s expectations. The United Soybean Board oversees investments from the mandatory soybean checkoff, which funds marketing, research and education aimed at increasing demand for U.S. soybeans. The board represents farmers from more than 30 states and influences domestic and international soy markets.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Agricultural reports are slim on Wednesday, with a busier schedule on the macro side with delayed Building Permits and Housing Starts from November and December at 7:30 a.m. CST, followed by Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 8:15 a.m. CST.

Weather

A big storm system continues to wrap up across the North on Wednesday, providing a long string of rain and snow from the Canadian Prairies to the Northeast. Another storm system is moving through the West and will emerge into the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday with another band of snow across the Central Plains.

Thompson Unveils ‘Farm Bill 2.0’ to Ag Groups’ Positive Reaction

Agricultural and conservation groups said they are cautiously optimistic after House Agriculture Committee Chairman G.T. Thompson introduced a new Farm Bill proposal Friday afternoon aimed at restarting stalled negotiations in Congress. Thompson, a Pennsylvania Republican,  unveiled the “Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026,” which is scheduled for consideration by the House Agriculture Committee beginning Feb. 23. If advanced, the legislation could reach the House floor later this spring. Agriculture-aligned conservation groups welcomed the move as a signal of progress after months of uncertainty. Several farm-related matters were previously addressed in last year's "One, Big, Beautiful Bill."  Aaron Field, director of private lands conservation for the Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership, said the Farm Bill plays a critical role in supporting working lands, wildlife habitat and outdoor recreation tied to agriculture. Groups emphasized that bipartisan support will be required for passage and said they plan to closely review the bill’s conservation and forestry provisions as the legislative process moves forward.

Navarro Flags ‘Significant’ USMCA Flaws but Stops Short of Exit Talk

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said Thursday that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement has “significant flaws,” raising questions about the future of the landmark North American trade pact but stopping short of endorsing an exit. Navarro told reporters the pact, known as USMCA, will be “reevaluated” during negotiations ahead of a mandatory July review and flagged concerns, including how goods from China could enter the U.S. through Mexico and Canada. The comments come amid broader uncertainty about the pact’s future. Bloomberg News reported that President Donald Trump is privately considering withdrawing from USMCA, a deal his administration originally negotiated to replace NAFTA, though the White House called such speculation “baseless” until the president speaks publicly. USMCA, designed to eliminate most tariffs among the three countries and deepen economic ties, faces political and economic strain as U.S. trade policy shifts toward protectionism and reevaluation of longstanding agreements.

USDA Announces New Emergency Livestock Aid for Ranchers Hit by Weather Losses

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced this week the final Emergency Livestock Relief Program, expanding payments to livestock producers disrupted by catastrophic drought, flooding and wildfires in 2023 and 2024. USDA officials said the plan aims to help ranchers recover losses and continue operations after extreme weather events strained forage supplies and forced herd reductions. The relief comes as cattle and beef markets continue to show volatility, with the national herd shrinking and prices elevated, reflecting persistent supply pressures. The relief program will provide one-time payments to eligible operations, with details on qualifying losses and application timelines expected soon. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the emergency funds complement broader administration efforts to support rural economies and agricultural resilience through targeted assistance. The announcement follows heightened calls from farm groups and lawmakers for more robust safety nets for producers facing climate-linked losses.

USDA Unveils Plan to Cut Red Tape and Legal Pressures on Farmers

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday launched the Farmer and Rancher Freedom Framework — a policy initiative designed to shield producers from what the department calls politically motivated legal actions and regulatory overreach. Secretary Brooke Rollins described the four-pillar plan as a cornerstone for defending agricultural heritage and providing fairness in rural America. The framework formalizes existing USDA efforts to streamline regulations, reduce compliance burdens and enhance protections for farmers and ranchers facing litigation or enforcement actions. Agricultural stakeholders welcomed the announcement, though critics argue it could weaken environmental and consumer safeguards. The policy echoes recent USDA moves to end “agricultural lawfare,” which has been discussed by advocacy groups and within USDA strategy briefings. The initiative also comes amid broader debates over farm profitability, market pressures and federal intervention in agriculture.

Farmer Protests Abroad Highlight Growing Tensions Over Global Ag Trade

Thousands of farmers and union members staged a nationwide strike in India last week to protest an interim trade agreement with the United States, fearing that expanded market access for U.S. agricultural exports could undercut local producers. The action disrupted transport and markets across multiple states as demonstrators demanded more protective safeguards for staples like rice, wheat and pulses. India’s commerce minister defended the trade pact, saying essential commodities remain shielded from tariff cuts, but farmers said the agreement still poses risks to livelihoods due to disparities in subsidies and infrastructure. The protests follow U.S. reports about trade framework negotiations and have drawn parallels with broader international debates about agricultural trade policy and farm sector vulnerability. Analysts say the dispute underscores how global trade deals can trigger domestic agricultural unrest when farmers perceive imbalanced benefits and competitive pressures.

US Announces Trade Deals with Taiwan, North Macedonia

The United States announced new trade agreements with Taiwan and North Macedonia aimed at lowering tariffs and expanding market access for U.S. agricultural and industrial goods. Under the deal with Taiwan, the island will eliminate or reduce tariffs on 99% of U.S. products, according to a fact sheet from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Tariffs will be scrapped on U.S. beef, lamb, seafood, dairy products, potatoes, vegetables, legumes, nuts and fruits. The agreement also streamlines export procedures for U.S. beef, poultry, pork and processing potatoes, the White House said, while protecting the use of common names for meats and cheeses. In a joint statement, North Macedonia said it agreed to eliminate customs duties on all U.S. industrial and agricultural goods. Taiwan currently applies an average tariff rate of nearly 17%, while North Macedonia’s average rate is close to 13%, according to the World Trade Organization. U.S. officials said the agreements are intended to strengthen trade ties and support American exporters.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

USDA reports for Tuesday include the annual Chickens and Eggs inventory report out at 2 p.m. CST. At the same time, the ERS will release their monthly outlook report for Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry in a follow-up to last week's WASDE report.

Weather

A system out in the West will move into the Plains on Tuesday, producing strong winds and scattered showers across the north into the Upper Midwest. Some areas of heavy snow will develop near and north of the Canadian border.

U.S. Grain Storage Capacity Growth has Stopped

The buildout of grain storage capacity in the U.S. has stopped. That’s according to data from Joe Janzen, an economist for the University of Illinois. He wrote on the Farmdoc Daily website that U.S. grain storage capacity grew in parallel with production from 2000 to 2019 at about 350 million bushels per year. However, that growth has stagnated since 2020 across all regions and facility types. Janzen said this stagnation, combined with continued production growth, has led to a record-high-capacity utilization rate, particularly in on-farm storage. The 2025 crop brought these tensions to a head, with December 1 on-farm utilization reaching 80 percent. What’s less clear is why investment in grain storage capacity dropped. It’s also difficult to determine if current U.S. storage capacity is sufficient for efficient operation along the grain supply chains. Janzen said, “The entire grain industry will need to consider these questions as it addresses the shifting geography of global grain production.” 

Dairy Industry Leader Testifies on USMCA Renewal

An Idaho dairy farmer testified before the Senate Finance Committee on the importance of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement to the U.S. dairy industry. Ted Vander Schaaf also talked about the improvements needed for the agreement to fully deliver for American dairy farmers. “Strong, enforceable trade agreements are critically important to the U.S. dairy industry,” he said at the hearing. “The U.S. exported about $9 billion in dairy products in 2025, including a record 559,000 metric tons of cheese last year through November.” Mexico and Canada are critical markets for U.S. dairy, purchasing $3.6 billion in American dairy products in 2024 and accounting for 44 percent of total U.S. dairy export value. USMCA remains vital to those trade flows. However, Vander Schaaf said Canada’s ongoing, blatant disregard for key USMCA obligations has undermined the agreement. “A firm basis for the agreement remains Canada upholding their end of the bargain,” Vander Schaaf added.

Cargill Down to One Working Plant in Wisconsin

Cargill announced it will be down to one working plant in Wisconsin after it shuts down a plant in a Milwaukee facility. Cargill announced that the protein processing plant in Menomonee Valley will close by the end of May, and the move will result in more than 200 people losing their jobs. Production at the plant is expected to start winding down sometime soon and will likely come to an end around the middle of April. This is the latest Cargill facility to shut down during the last 12 years. Cargill’s website now has a single location left in Wisconsin, and that’s a grain elevator in La Crosse. Local reports say that affected employees have the opportunity to apply for positions at other Cargill locations or receive a severance package. The soon-to-be-closed facility produces fresh, ground beef and value-added meat products for some of the largest grocery retailers and will be fully closed on May 31. 

Farm Journal Survey Shows Producers “Fighting for Survival”

Farm Journal’s first Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor of 2026 shows the U.S. ag economy entered the year in a clear crop-sector recession. However, the survey also finds a deeper crisis of confidence. Economists say the downturn is cyclical and manageable through optimization, but farmers are experiencing it as a structural stress test on their operations and livelihoods. The first survey points to a continuing split in the ag economy, which is strength in livestock, particularly beef cattle, versus persistent financial stress across most of the row-crop sector. The Monthly Monitor asks respondents to compare the ag economy right now with the same time a year ago, and most retailers, producers, and economists report being somewhat worse off. “Across nearly all responses, margin pressure emerged as a dominant concern,” said Tyne Morgan of AgWeb. “While several producers talk about diversifying as a key, others responded with cutting costs to the bone, especially around capital spending.” 

Weekly Ethanol Production Rebounds After a Drop

Data from the Energy Information Administration showed that ethanol production rebounded 16 percent to 1.11 million barrels a day during the week ending on February 6. That’s equivalent to 46.62 million gallons daily. Analysis from the Renewable Fuels Association showed output was 2.6 percent higher than the same week in 2025 and almost five percent above the three-year average for the week. Still, the four-week average ethanol production rate declined 1.9 percent to 1.08 million barrels a day, equivalent to an annualized rate of 16.52 billion gallons. Ethanol stocks edged up 0.4 percent to 25.2 million barrels. However, stocks were 1.7 percent less than the same week last year and 1.4 percent below the three-year average. Inventories were built across the East Coast and Rocky Mountains but thinned through the remaining regions. Ethanol exports scaled back by 36 percent to an estimated 137,000 barrels a day, which was a four-week low. 

Wheat Growers Support U.S.-Bangladesh Trade Agreement

U.S. Wheat Associates welcomed the announcement of the signing of the U.S.-Bangladesh Agreement on Reciprocal Trade by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. “The signing of the reciprocal trade agreement between the U.S. and Bangladesh is a win for American wheat farmers,” said Mike Spier, USW President and CEO. “Beyond putting bushels on boats, this bilateral agreement reinforces our shared commitment to a mutually beneficial relationship with Bangladesh.” In July 2025, USW signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Government of Bangladesh, which committed to annual purchases of 700,000 metric tons, or 25.7 million bushels, of U.S. wheat for the next five years. Bangladesh is already fulfilling that commitment, rising from a swing buyer to the eighth-largest market for U.S. wheat in the 2025-2026 marketing year. As of January 29, 2026, Bangladesh has purchased more than 676,000 metric tons, or 24.8 million bushels, of U.S. wheat. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

Friday looks to be a mostly quiet session for reports, but traders will tune in at 8 a.m. CST to see if USDA reports any flash export sales. After the close, CFTC will release their Commitments of Traders report which will update trader positions as of Tuesday, February 10.

Weather

Throughout Friday, scattered showers and storms will gradually develop across the southwest Plains as a system from the Desert Southwest arrives. A few marginally strong to severe storms, providing risks for large hail and damaging winds, will be possible across western Texas into central Oklahoma. By early Saturday morning, these areas could see around 0.5-1 inch of rain.

USDA Data Under Increasing Scrutiny

The USDA is facing some doubts about the reliability of its data from farmers, grain traders, and economists. Reuters said the doubts are coming about because of the agency’s significant staff losses and the sharp upward revision in how many acres of corn U.S. farmers harvested in 2025. “Thousands of employees left the agency last year as a part of the administration’s push to shrink the federal government, and industry stakeholders are worried that the shrinking staff limited the agency’s ability to produce timely and accurate data,” Reuters said. USDA’s final January estimates of how many acres corn farmers planted and harvested in 2025 represented unprecedented increases from June’s initial estimates. Already-low grain prices dropped over five percent at a time when growers were already struggling to make enough money to stay in business. The unexpected revisions prompted the National Agricultural Statistics Service to launch an internal review of its processes for making acreage estimates.

AFBF: Smaller Cattle Herd Means Market Volatility

It’s well-known that the U.S. cattle herd continues to shrink. The January U.S. Cattle Inventory report showed the total inventory at 86.2 million head on January 1. That was down 300,000 head from last year. American Farm Bureau analysis showed the combination of fewer beef cows and a declining calf crop means the 2026 calf crop will likely continue to trend downward because there are fewer calves available for the breeding herd, even if more heifers are kept for breeding purposes. Tighter cattle supplies will contribute to higher prices and volatility for cattle and beef in 2026. Smaller cattle supplies paired with strong consumer demand for beef have driven up prices for both cattle and beef. With cattle supplies this tight, markets have become more responsive to news and events that could impact supply and demand. Beef cattle cash receipts have been one of the few bright spots in the U.S. agricultural economy. 

USGBC Arrives in Panama for International Marketing Conference

U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council staff and members are in Panama City, Panama, for the 23rd International Marketing Conference and the 66th Annual Membership Meeting. This meeting will spotlight important conversations around new markets, the Panama Canal, and discussions about the Council’s upcoming global trade strategy in Latin America and the Asia Pacific. “My theme for this year is ‘The Time is Now,’ which reflects both the opportunities and challenges in the current trade environment,” said Mark Wilson, USGBC Chair. “Not only will attendees hear throughout this conference about the recent trade victories we’ve had during the last year, but they will also get the opportunity to meet and speak directly with members of the Council’s staff who are strategically placed around the world and working for them.” The Conference and Membership Meeting runs through Friday in Panama. Interested people can follow along on social media using #Grains26.

Year-Round E15 Push Needs Action by Sunday

The rural economy is suffering, and the news about increasing farm bankruptcies and the USDA’s unexpected jump in the 2025 corn harvest came at a bad time. Geoff Cooper, the president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association, said a record corn crop should be good news. “Demand hasn’t kept up, which means lower commodity prices and farm income,” Cooper said. “Government payments, while appreciated, don’t clear out bins, but stronger markets do.” He also said the best and easiest solution lies before Congress, which is legislation to allow year-round E15 sales nationwide. “It’s now up to the House’s E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council to present its proposed approach for approving year-round E15 by this Sunday, February 15,” he added. “The House has promised to hold a vote on the legislative proposal by the end of this month.” Year-round E15 would be the most effective way to address the supply-demand imbalance. 

AccuWeather: Worst Winter Cold Likely Over

AccuWeather long-range experts say the harshest cold of winter is likely in the rearview mirror, but the rest of the season will bring various weather threats, including ice jams, flooding, severe storms, and an increased risk of wildfires. “Rising temperatures will melt snow and ice over the next few weeks, which can trigger ice jams and river flooding earlier than usual, especially along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather Long-Range Expert. Forecasters say an extended dry stretch in California will be coming to an end with more rain and some snowfall in the mountains. Rain and snow will also return to the Rockies and the rest of the West in the weeks ahead. Even with 30 percent of the country having snowpack on the ground, almost 20 percent of the U.S. is currently dealing with severe, extreme, or exceptional drought conditions, compared to 17 percent at this time last year. 

New Face Expanding Broadband Across Rural America

NTCA, the Rural Broadband Association, announced that Mike Romano is the new Chief Executive Officer, effective on March 15. Romano is currently the Executive Vice President of NTCA, where he oversees public policy, government affairs, and business development initiatives. “Having worked for the past 15 years for smaller broadband providers working to connect rural America, I have had the opportunity to see firsthand the difference these operators make in driving innovation and lifting up consumers and communities,” Romano said. “I am grateful for the trust that the NTCA board and the association’s membership have placed in me with this selection, and I look forward to helping them fulfill their mission of delivering connections that will benefit our entire nation for decades to come.” NTCA Chair Ben Foster said Romano has played an integral role in executing NTCA’s mission for more than a decade and is well-prepared to advocate forcefully for the industry and the communities NTCA serves.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Thursday morning at 7:30 a.m. CST, USDA will release their latest Export Sales report with data for the week ending February 5. USDA will also release their monthly outlooks in the afternoon at 2 p.m. CST, with follow up details to Tuesday's WASDE on commodities such as cotton, wheat, rice, and oil crops.

Weather

Isolated rain showers are possible across Iowa Thursday as a weak warm front nudges into the area. The Plains and Southeast will be mostly dry Thursday with above-average temperatures. The next large system will begin developing across the Central and Southern Plains later Friday.

Farm Bankruptcies Continued Climbing in 2025

A new American Farm Bureau Market Intel Report said Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies increased for the second year in a row, reaching 315 filings in 2025, a 46 percent increase from 2024. The Midwest and Southeast filed 121 and 105 Chapter 12 cases, respectively, far outpacing any other regions. Deep crop losses across commodities common in those two regions have compounded after years of declining receipts and rising expenses. Filing for Chapter 12 bankruptcy is a last resort for farmers who have incurred large debts to continue operating with increased flexibility for payments. Midwest states with double-digit filings include Iowa with 18, Nebraska 17, Missouri and Wisconsin each had 16 filings, Minnesota with 13, and Kansas had 11. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City said farmers are taking out larger operating loans and taking longer to repay them. USDA estimates that total farm debt will rise 5.2 percent to a record $624.7 billion this year. 

Sterile Fly Dispersal Facility in Texas is Complete

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced the completion of the U.S.-based sterile fly dispersal facility in Edinburg, Texas. The facility expands the USDA’s ability to disperse sterile flies along the border and into the U.S., if necessary. “This sterile fly facility was a high-priority project, and our team delivered it in record time,” said Rollins. “This new facility is a monumental achievement for our domestic preparedness efforts, but we are also diligently working to stop the spread of screwworm in Mexico, conduct extensive trapping and surveillance along the border, increase U.S. response capacity, and encourage innovative solutions.” She also said that the USDA will continue to hold Mexico accountable for mitigating the spread of this dangerous pest. Texas Governor Greg Abbott joined Rollins at the announcement, saying that America is going to take care of itself, including dealing with the approach of screwworm to the southern border.  

Groups Continue Push for Continuing the USMCA

Trade with Mexico and Canada delivers significant economic benefits to rural communities across the U.S. That’s according to new economic analysis released today by the Agricultural Coalition for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. During a press conference in Washington, D.C., coalition members highlighted the findings and urged leaders of the three countries to renew and further strengthen USMCA as the agreement enters its formal review period. “Our analysis shows that USMCA is a powerful driver for employment, investment, and long-term competitiveness in the U.S. agricultural sector,” said Krista Swanson, chief economist for the National Corn Growers Association, a coalition member. “While the agreement is due for a few targeted improvements, overall, it’s critical to the farm economy and a key part of rural America’s success and resilience, particularly during the tough economic times that we’re in right now.” Among the coalition’s findings, agricultural and seafood exports to Canada and Mexico generated $149 billion in total economic output.

USDA Releases February WASDE Report

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report shows the 2025-2026 U.S. corn outlook is for greater exports and lower ending stocks. Exports were raised 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion, reflecting sales and shipments to date. However, with no supply changes and use rising, corn ending stocks dropped by 100 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. The U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected to be unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The report said China is considering buying more U.S. soybeans in the months ahead. The wheat outlook calls for unchanged supplies, modestly lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly higher ending stocks, which were raised to 931 million bushels, nine percent higher than last year. The projected 2025-2026 season-average farm price remains at $4.90 per bushel. 

Export Inspection of Corn and Wheat Rise

USDA data said inspections of corn and wheat for overseas delivery rose week to week, while soybean assessments declined during the seven days ending on February 5. Corn inspections totaled 1.31 million metric tons, which the agency said was up from the 1.15 million tons the week before. However, it was still behind the 1.36 million tons examined during the same week last year. Wheat assessments increased to 580,100 metric tons, up from 330,000 tons the previous week and 570,300 metric tons during the same time last year. Soybean inspections for export dropped to 1.14 million metric tons, down from 1.32 million a week before. That’s still higher than the 1.1 million tons inspected during the same week in 2025. Since the start of the marketing year, export inspections of corn and wheat are higher, at 33.9 million and 14.6 million metric tons, respectively. Soybean inspections are down at 23.1 million metric tons compared to last year’s 35.3 million. 

USDA Announces Enrollment Periods for 2026 Continuous and General CRP

The USDA announced the enrollment periods for agricultural producers and landowners to submit offers for the Continuous and General Conservation Reserve Program. The Farm Service Agency is accepting offers for Continuous CRP starting this Thursday, February 12, through March 20, 2026. Enrollment for the General CRP will run from March 9, 2026, through April 17, 2026. FSA will announce the dates for the Grassland CRP signup in the near future. “We’re still very close to the 27-million-acre statutory cap, with 1.9 million acres available for all CRP enrollments this fiscal year, so enrollment is likely to be competitive,” said Richard Fordyce, USDA Undersecretary for Farm Programs and Conservation. “It’s not about the total number of enrolled acres, it’s about producers and landowners offering the acres that can best deliver real and lasting benefits to soil, water, and wildlife.” Producers and landowners interested in participating in CRP should contact their local FSA county office. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will lead off Wednesday with the release of the delayed January employment situation and wage data report at 7:30 a.m. CST. Later in the morning at 9:30 a.m. CST, the Energy Information Administration will release their weekly Petroleum Status report including last week's ethanol production. Finally, in the afternoon at 1 p.m. CST, USDA will release a series of follow-ups to Tuesday's WASDE report, such as updating the feed grains and wheat data databases.

Weather

Scattered rain showers will continue to exit the Southeast Wednesday as a cold front moves through the area. The center of the country remains dry and relatively warm during the day, with a few isolated showers developing across the Central Plains or western Midwest later Wednesday night.

U.S. to Quadruple Beef Imports from Argentina

The U.S. will temporarily expand the amount of beef it can import from Argentina, thanks to an executive order signed by President Trump last week. Fox Business said the move is intended to help lower the price of beef, but the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association said that isn’t accurate. The proclamation increases the in-quota tariff-rate quota for lean beef trimmings by 80,000 metric tons for the calendar year 2026. The additional imports will be entirely allocated to imports from Argentina and released into the U.S. market in segments four times through the year, beginning this week on February 13. “The White House said the action is intended to boost supply and make ground beef more affordable for American consumers,” Fox reported. “The proclamation from the White House said the administration is acting in response to historically high beef prices and a prolonged decrease in the U.S. cattle herd.” 

FBA Help On-Track for February Distribution

USDA officials say they remain on schedule to meet the late-February rollout for the Farm Bridge Assistance program. Payments are expected to begin flowing on schedule, and new digital tools are being introduced to streamline the process for producers. Richard Fordyce, USDA Undersecretary for Farm Production and Conservation, speaking with Agriculture of America, said the agency’s timeline “remains solid” as procedural steps near completion. As part of the program’s rollout, USDA plans to administer the program through login.gov, a federal portal already used by multiple government agencies. Fordyce said that will allow producers to access, review, and sign the required FBA forms electronically. He advised farmers to set up accounts at login.gov ahead of time to avoid delays once the forms are released. USDA views the FBA program as an early test case for the broader use of login.gov in future farm programs. 

EPA Announces New Low-Volatility Dicamba Herbicides

The Environmental Protection Agency announced a new federal registration for low-volatility Dicamba herbicides in 34 states. This registration will enable U.S. farmers to have access to this important weed control tool in Dicamba-tolerant soybeans and cotton. Bayer is launching the new registration as Stryax Dicamba herbicide, a restricted-use pesticide. “With a federal registration in hand, we’ll begin the process of seeking state approvals,” said Dr. Ty Witten, Bayer’s vice president of commercial stewardship. ”In the weeks ahead, we’ll launch applicator training opportunities and stewardship education to help ensure that growers and applicators have the best experience possible.” The registration will enable the use of approved low-volatility Dicamba herbicides in-crop up to seven days pre-harvest in XtendFlex cotton, and up through R1 in XtendFlex soybeans. Bayer said Stryax is intended to help manage glyphosate-resistant broadleaf weeds, as well as other tough-to-control weeds. 

USDA Accepting Applications for Trade Mission to Türkiye

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service is accepting applications for a trade mission to Istanbul, Türkiye (tur-KEE-ya). The trip is May 11–14, and U.S. exporters interested in going to explore trade opportunities in Türkiye and other areas of Central Asia should apply by February 24. “With stable economic growth and proven demand for high-quality U.S. food in Türkiye and the surrounding region, now is the time for agribusinesses and producers to take advantage of that,” said Luke Lindberg, USDA’s Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs. The U.S. was the fifth-largest supplier of agricultural products to Türkiye in 2024, while Türkiye ranked as the 16th-largest market for U.S. agricultural exports, which is a figure that’s grown by about 45 percent since 2020. Total U.S. agricultural exports to Türkiye exceeded $1.7 billion, including more than $590 million in retail-ready goods like fruits, meats, and dairy products.

Lower Than Normal Missouri River Runoff in 2026

January runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, was one million acre-feet, which is 132 percent of the average. Runoff was above average for all the reaches in the upper Missouri River Basin, even though most of the upper Basin had below-normal precipitation. This was due to above average temperatures causing early snowmelt. The updated 2026 calendar year runoff forecast for the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City continues to be below average. “Runoff into the reservoir system was above-average for the month of January despite the dry conditions across the basin,” said John Remus of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. “With the below-average plains and mountain snowpack, we are forecasting a below-average runoff year for the Basin, resulting in reduced flows from the reservoirs, particularly in the upper basin.” The 2026 calendar year runoff forecast above Sioux City is 23.4 million acre-feet, 91 percent of the average. 

Ag Groups Urge EPA to Uphold Science-Based Review Process

A coalition of leading agricultural organizations sent a letter to EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, urging the agency to uphold its rigorous, science-based pesticide registration process and ensure timely reviews under federal law. The letter expressed support for the goals of the Make America Healthy Again movement and the MAHA Commission’s Make Our Children Healthy Again Strategy. They also emphasized that access to safe, effective, and innovative crop protection tools is essential to achieving those goals. The organizations highlighted that science-based pesticide approvals are critical, not only to food security and affordability, but also to the long-term sustainability of U.S. agriculture, enabling growers to protect yields, use inputs efficiently, reduce losses, and continue investing in environmental stewardship and innovation. “For soybean farmers, these tools are critical to protecting yields, managing weed resistance, and continuing to produce safe, affordable food, feed, and fuel,” said Scott Metzger, president of the American Soybean Association.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

The feature event for Tuesday's session will be the release of USDA's February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report at 11 a.m. CST, which will update both domestic and foreign commodity balance sheets.

Weather

Isolated rain showers will spread across the Southern Plains Tuesday before expanding north into the Tennessee Valley Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts could approach up to 0.5 inches in portions of Kentucky and Tennessee by early Wednesday morning.

Farm Income Will Fall in 2026

The USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts that net farm income, a broad measure of profitability in the agricultural economy, is forecast to drop by 0.7 percent to $153.4 billion in 2026 compared to last year. When adjusted for inflation, net farm income is projected to decrease by $4.1 billion or 2.6 percent. Reuters said that the drop comes despite near-record government payments, which will make up almost 29 percent of producers’ bottom line. “Agency data said without those government payments, net farm income would drop almost 12 percent to $109.1 billion,” Reuters said. “Government payments are doing a lot of the work to support crop producers.” The USDA forecast said producers will receive $30.5 billion in direct support in 2025 and $44.3 billion in 2026, excluding additional payouts from federal crop insurance indemnities. “We haven’t seen these levels since 2020 and 2021 during the COVID-19 upheaval and trade disruptions during President Donald Trump’s first term,” Reuters added.

BIVI Secures Emergency Authorization for NWS Medication

Boehringer Ingelheim announced that the Food and Drug Administration has issued an Emergency Use Authorization for using IVOMEC (Ivermectin) 1% Injection for preventing infestations of New World Screwworm in cattle. Under the Authorization, Ivermectin 1% is usable for the prevention of infestations caused by NWS larvae when administered within 24 hours of birth, at the time of castration, or at the appearance of a wound in cattle. It’s not usable in female dairy cattle producing milk for human consumption and calves that will be processed for veal. Based on the available scientific evidence, the FDA determined that there is no adequate, approved, and available alternative to the product for preventing NWS in certain cattle at these critical intervention points. “Protecting the health and well-being of livestock is at the core of our mission,” said Steve Boren, the vice president of U.S. livestock for Boehringer Ingelheim. 

Modern Ag Alliance Issues a Report on the Modern Farmer

Modern Ag Alliance issued a report on the state of the American farmer, showing that agriculture is facing one of its most challenging periods in a generation. The report said economic pressures and activist campaigns against modern agriculture have created conditions where even the most resilient operations are feeling the strain. These pressures extend well beyond the farm gate, giving price instability across the economy for the food, fuel, and fiber that depend on agricultural production. The report shows farmers face profitability challenges, with only about half the farmers expected to be profitable in the past year. Commodity prices have dropped as high as 58 percent since 2022, and cost increases like labor and tariff-related expenses continue climbing. Farm bankruptcies have seen a 60 percent year-over-year increase, surpassing the 2024 total by mid-2025. They also said regulatory uncertainty and disconnected policymakers are making a difficult situation even harder. 

Ag Groups Join Forces for USMCA Renewal

Forty farm and agricultural groups launched the Agricultural Coalition for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, underscoring the deal’s vital role as an economic engine for the U.S. farm economy. The groups are calling for its renewal with targeted improvements. As part of the launch, the group unveiled a new website and kicked off an aggressive ad campaign in the nation’s capital, all of which is designed to promote the benefits afforded to the U.S. ag sector as the administration approaches the mandatory 2026 review. “USMCA is one of the President’s signature achievements and has significantly propelled the ag economy,” said Bryan Goodman, a spokesperson for the new group. “We’re not saying it’s perfect, as some changes are warranted, but we are saying it is of paramount importance to farmers that all three countries renew the agreement.” The agreement has significantly increased U.S. agriculture exports to Canada and Mexico and provided more certainty between the three nations. 

Crop Insurance Deadline Draws Near

The USDA reminds agricultural producers that the final date to apply for or make changes to their existing crop insurance coverage is quickly approaching for spring-planted crops, Whole-Farm Revenue Protection, Micro Farm, and some specialty crops. Sales closing dates vary by crop and location, but the next major sales closing dates are February 28, March 15, and April 15. Producers are encouraged to visit their crop insurance agent soon to learn specific details for the upcoming crop year. Crop insurance coverage decisions must be made on or before the applicable sales closing date. The USDA’s Risk Management Agency lists the sales closing dates in the Actuarial Information Browser under the “Dates” tab. Producers can also access the RMA Map Viewer tool to visualize the insurance program date choices for acreage reporting, cancellation, contract change, earliest planting, end of insurance, and many other choices per commodity, insurance plan, type, and practice. 

Virginia Cattleman Takes Over as NCBA President

Virginia cattleman Gene Copenhaver takes the helm as the new president of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. His new leadership role began with the end of CattleCon 2026. Copenhaver currently manages his family’s stocker operation in southwest Virginia and was an agricultural loan officer for 36 years. Copenhaver said his father taught him early to be “at the table,” especially when policy decisions were being made. About 25 years ago, he helped launch a county cattlemen’s group, which kicked off his climb from local to both state and national level involvement. “I’ll go to my grave saying our greatest strength is grassroots,” he said. “We also can’t build the future if every good year gets taxed away before we can shore up our infrastructure.” The NCBA 2026 officer team was approved by the Board of Directors and includes Kim Brackett of Idaho, the president-elect, and Vice President Skye Krebs of Oregon.

Monday Watch List

Markets

For Monday, USDA will release their routine Export Inspections report at 10 a.m. CST. There are no other major USDA or economic reports scheduled but traders will be tuned in for demand-related news, specifically for daily export sales announcements from USDA at 8 a.m. CST.

Weather

A weak system is moving through southern Canada on Monday morning, stretching a front back across the Northern Plains through Montana. Showers will be limited outside of Montana Monday, which may see some moderate snowfall. Despite the snow, temperatures are rising just about everywhere in the country for Monday.

Will the Cattle Cycle Turn in 2026?

The CattleFax Outlook Seminar, held as a part of CattleCon 2026 in Nashville, Tennessee, said there are signals showing changes ahead in 2026. The U.S. cattle and beef industry enters 2026 with strong but volatile market conditions, as historically tight cattle supplies, record-setting beef demand, and elevated policy and weather uncertainty continue to support prices, even as markets appear to be near cyclical highs. “Tight inventories and exceptional demand remain the dominant forces shaping the market,” said Mike Murphy, CattleFax Chief Operating Officer. “However, producer demographics, high input costs, and policy uncertainty point to a slow and measured expansion phase.” The Outlook Seminar’s weather forecast is calling for a transition out of La Niña. In the near-term, drought risks remain elevated across the Southern U.S. and Central Plains, with a 70 percent chance of intensification. A neutral spring setup may help distribute moisture more evenly, though lingering La Niña effects could limit precipitation in the West.  

Farmer Sentiment Drops Sharply in January

Farmer sentiment weakened sharply in January as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropped from 136 in December to 113 in January. The Current Conditions Index dropped 19 points while the Future Expectations Index dipped 25 points. Among the five indexes that make up the overall AEB Index, the largest decline was in the question asking participants whether U.S. agriculture would have good times or bad times during the next five years. The index for that question fell from 122 to 88, marking its lowest point since September 2024. One-half of the producers surveyed reported that their farm operations were worse off than a year ago. The respondents expecting a larger operating loan this year compared to last year rose to 21 percent, up from 18 percent last year. Thirty-one percent of those producers say it’s because they were carrying over unpaid operating debt from the prior year, up from 23 percent in 2025. 

Former Ag Leaders Warn of Farm Economy in Crisis

A bipartisan group of former leaders of America’s major agricultural commodity organizations and biofuels organizations, farmer leaders, and former USDA officials issued a stark warning to Congress and the Trump administration. In a letter, they outlined the deteriorating state of the farm economy, calling current conditions a potential “widespread collapse of American agriculture.”  The letter was signed by Harold Wolle (WOOL-lee), former NCGA President, Bob Dineen, the past president of the Renewable Fuels Association, Jim Mulhern, the former President of the National Milk Producers Federation, and many others. The letter proposes many solutions, including immediately exempting all farm inputs from tariffs and repealing tariffs that are disrupting agricultural export markets. Other solutions include passing year-round E15 legislation, a new farm bill, and encouraging the administration to quickly complete a review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement. They’re also asking for Trade Promotion Authority for the administration and new farm labor reform.

Ag Groups Join Forces for USMCA Renewal

Forty farm and agricultural groups launched the Agricultural Coalition for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, underscoring the deal’s vital role as an economic engine for the U.S. farm economy. The groups are calling for its renewal with targeted improvements. As part of the launch, the group unveiled a new website and kicked off an aggressive ad campaign in the nation’s capital, all of which is designed to promote the benefits afforded to the U.S. ag sector as the administration approaches the mandatory 2026 review. “USMCA is one of the President’s signature achievements and has significantly propelled the ag economy,” said Bryan Goodman, a spokesperson for the new group. “We’re not saying it’s perfect, as some changes are warranted, but we are saying it is of paramount importance to farmers that all three countries renew the agreement.” The agreement has significantly increased U.S. agriculture exports to Canada and Mexico and provided more certainty between the three nations.