Uncertainty about the direction of international trade policy is clouding the outlook for grain elevators and merchandisers. The lack of clarity surrounding tariffs with key U.S. trading partners like China has pulled new-crop sales well below historical averages. A new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange says the longer the uncertainty continues to drag on sales of new-crop exports, export-dependent grain elevators, and merchandisers risk entering the 2025-2026 marketing year with greater reliance on local demand that may be scarce in some regions. “Elevators and grain merchandisers with exposure to high-risk export markets, especially China, may have to widen the new-crop basis to attract local demand,” said Tanner Ehmke, grains and oilseeds economist for CoBank. As of May 1, U.S. new-crop export sales were well below their five-year averages, with soybeans falling 88.2 percent and corn dropping 26.9 percent. China is conspicuously absent, with no purchases of U.S. soybeans, corn, or wheat.