USDA Sending Natural Disaster Aid to Farmers

The USDA is issuing payments this week to agricultural producers impacted by natural disasters. The assistance includes $143 million in crop insurance indemnities for Florida producers impacted by Hurricane Milton and over $92 million for livestock producers nationwide who have faced increased supplemental feed costs as a result of forage losses due to 2022 qualifying drought and wildfire events. “Florida farmers, livestock producers, and forest landowners have been hit hard by hurricanes this year, and we’re continuing our efforts to help producers recover following hurricanes like Milton,” says Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack. “Additionally, payments for America’s livestock producers serve as another example of how we’re leveraging every available resource to help as many people as we can on the road to recovery.” Producers with federal crop insurance coverage through the Hurricane Insurance Protection-Wind Index endorsement and Tropical Storm Option will see their payments from insurance providers in the next 30 days.

Lack of 45Z Guidance Already Slowing Production

Reports say agricultural companies like Cargill and Bunge are slowing their soybean purchases due to uncertainty over U.S. biofuels policy. Farm Policy News says some producers are putting off some purchases of soy oil for use early next year, which is also dampening demand for soybeans. By mid-October, most fuel retailers had only bought about ten percent of their biodiesel feedstocks for the coming first quarter in 2025. That compares with more than 80 percent bought by this time of year over the past ten years. The industry is still waiting for the Treasury Department to issue guidance for the clean fuel production credit set to begin in January. Producers aren’t eager to book a lot of soybean oil until that guidance is released. Industry insiders say if the Treasury doesn’t release the regulations on the 45Z production credit, a 45-million-gallon-a-year biodiesel plant in northwest Iowa may have to idle.

U.S. Winter Wheat Health in Rough Shape

To the surprise of many in the industry, the U.S. winter wheat crop is in much worse shape than they expected. Shipping News says drought has strengthened since the middle of this year throughout rural America. However, there may be a break coming as ample rains are slated for the central portion of the country during the next several days. That could mean wheat’s health struggle could be a shorter-lived issue, but it all depends on how much rain those areas receive. The most recent crop rating showed 38 percent of the winter wheat crop is in good to excellent condition, while pre-report estimates from industry analysts averaged 47 percent. Kansas, which accounts for a quarter of all U.S. winter wheat, saw its crop rating at 38 percent, two percentage points below the five-year average. Last week, around 58 percent of U.S. winter wheat areas were experiencing drought, the largest number since 2023. 

Four Top Corn-Growing States Lagging in Harvest Progress

Four of the top 18 corn-growing states have 65 percent or less of their corn crop harvested. Successful Farming says of those top 18 states, Pennsylvania had the lowest percentage of corn harvested as of October 27 at 50 percent. That’s still ahead of their five-year average by six percentage points and further ahead of last year’s pace that saw 34 percent of the crop harvested by late October. Colorado had harvested 58 percent of its corn crop as of October 27 and was only one percentage point behind its five-year average pace. Michigan farmers had harvested 62 percent of their corn, dramatically outpacing the five-year average of 35 percent. At this time last year, only 28 percent of the crop was harvested. Wisconsin farmers had completed 65 percent of their corn harvest compared to a five-year average of 35 percent. Wisconsin farmers had 1.01 million acres still to harvest.

Broiler Industry Provides 1.4 Million Jobs, $450 Billion Impact

The U.S. Poultry and Egg Association, the National Chicken Council, the National Turkey Federation, and United Egg Producers have released an economic impact study of the poultry industry. The report highlights the positive impact the industry has on jobs, wages, and federal and state revenue in the U.S. The study breaks down the industry into three categories: broilers, turkey, and eggs. The broiler industry provides 1,376,000 jobs, $90.9 billion in wages, $36.7 billion in government revenue, and $449 billion in economic activity. “This tool shows the positive economic impact the poultry and egg industry have on our nations and communities, and we are pleased to continue providing it,” says Nath (NAYTH) Morris, president of USPOULTRY. Gary Kushner, interim president of the National Chicken Council, says, “Our chicken producers have a positive impact that stretches from coast to coast, hits every sector of the economy, and is felt in every Congressional district.

Company Transforms Organic Byproducts into Feed and Fertilizer

Denali (deh-NAHL-lee), a company that recycles organics, says it has transformed over 10 billion pounds of organic byproducts into natural fertilizers. The company’s newly released sustainability report details findings from 2023. The report also shows that Denali collected 1.7 billion pounds of food waste, with 75 percent recycled into organic, nutrient-rich animal feed. The report shows that Denali’s recycling efforts produced enough natural fertilizer to support more than 100,000 acres of farmland and manufactured enough animal feed to nourish over 40,000 cattle across five states. The EPA says Denali’s converting 1.3 billion pounds of food waste into animal feed resulted in an approximate avoidance of 780,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 2023. This reduction is comparable to the greenhouse gas emissions produced by 185,641 gasoline-powered vehicles driven over the course of one year. Denali says its purpose is to convert organic wastes from various sources into valuable products.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

PCE Index data at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CDT

EIA Biofuels and Feedstocks Update at 11 a.m. CDT

Agricultural Price Indices update at 2 p.m. CDT

Weather

A low-pressure center is moving from Iowa into the Great Lakes for Thursday. East and south of the low, showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread. There is a much lower chance for severe weather, but areas of heavy rain will likely occur. Near the low, rain will change to snow from Minnesota into western Wisconsin where several inches will likely accumulate. Breezy winds are also found in portions of the Midwest Thursday.

Officials Want Accountability from USDA

Congressmen Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, Brad Finstad from Minnesota, and Randy Feenstra of Iowa wrote a letter to USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack regarding Pure Prairie Poultry’s shutdown. The Minnesota company closed its doors, leaving almost 50 farmers and over two million chickens in those three states with no feed or processing options. The members highlighted the lack of oversight and accountability by USDA and requested answers from the agency on their loan and grant process, as well as what they know about Pure Prairie Poultry’s bankruptcy filing. “The USDA will answer for the $45.5 million in loans and agricultural grants given to Pure Prairie Poultry, and the company will answer for what they did with that money before they stiffed our farmers,” Van Orden says. “I’m so thankful for how our farmers put the welfare of their flocks first and am proud to advocate for them on the House Agriculture Committee.

Farm Economy Steady to Weakening

While the farm economy seems to have stabilized in the Midwest and Northern Plains, it weakened in the rest of the U.S. this fall. Producers are dealing with high costs and lower commodity prices. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book says, “Agricultural activity was flat to down modestly, with some crop prices remaining unprofitably low.” Farmers in parts of the Sixth District of Atlanta are having a hard time. Farmers in South Georgia and parts of Florida noted significant damage and losses resulting from Hurricane Helene. Chicago’s Seventh District farmers had stable farm income expectations despite above-average harvest projections. The Eighth District of St. Louis notes that while agricultural production has been stable, overall sector conditions have weakened. Ninth District – Minneapolis conditions remained stable at lower levels. Kansas City’s Tenth District says activity in the ag sector continued to decline. Contacts in the Eleventh District around Dallas continued reporting tough financial conditions.

Forty Percent of Farmers Work Off the Farm

The 2022 Census of Agriculture showed about 40 percent of American farmers worked 200 or more days off the farm in 2022. The majority, 93 percent, of the 3,078 U.S. counties for which data was reported had at least 30 percent of producers working 200 or more days off the farm. Further, 83 counties (2.7 percent) had at least 50 percent of producers working off-farm for 200 days or more. For farms with at least two producers, 41 percent of those worked off-farm for 200 days or more. In comparison, 35 percent of producers on farms with only one producer did so. Off-farm work is a significant source of income for most farm households and can additionally provide health and retirement benefits. Agricultural Resource Management Survey data says over half of family farms weren’t profitable in 2022, and 84 percent of farms earned at least half their income off the farm.

CoBank: SAF Policy Questions Remain

Sustainable aviation fuel could emerge as the next big opportunity for substantial growth in U.S. biofuel production with proper market and regulatory incentives. Agricultural feedstocks could play a leading role in the supply chain for domestic SAF production. However, any meaningful growth opportunities will be largely dependent on favorable policies and adequate incentives for farmers and the wider biofuels industry. CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange says the guidance on the 45Z tax credit will be a determining factor for the extent of agriculture’s role in SAF production. “Farmers are hopeful the new guidance will offer more flexibility than the 40B guidance did in setting on-farm conservation practices required to be eligible for the credit,” says Jacqui Fatka, an economist with CoBank. “Farmers want to be able to employ on-farm conservation practices that are applicable to their individual operations.” She also says biofuel producers won’t expand until the new guidance gets published.

Export Inspections Lower Across the Board

The USDA says grain and soybean inspections were lower week to week during the seven days ending on October 24. Corn assessments were reported at 823,664 metric tons, down from one million tons from the previous week. The agency says that’s still above the 541,000 tons inspected during the same week a year ago. Wheat inspections totaled 248,534 tons, down from almost 269,000 assessed during the previous week. That’s still higher than the 198,000 tons examined at the same time last year. USDA says the examinations of soybeans for offshore delivery dropped to 2.39 million tons, down from 2.55 million a week earlier. That total is still up from the 2.05 million tons inspected last year. Since the beginning of the marketing year, USDA has inspected 6.62 million metric tons of corn - higher than the 4.98 million last year - 10.4 million tons of soybeans and 9.51 million tons of wheat.

Ag Research Technology Center Breaks Ground

Advances in crop production and preservation are poised for a new location as the USDA’s Agricultural Research Service broke ground for a modernized facility. The new structure will consolidate all the labs that are currently located at the University of California-Davis. The Agricultural Research and Technology Center is a cutting-edge facility that will include customized laboratories, greenhouses, and capacity for scientists as part of the ARS’s ongoing efforts to mitigate climate change, water scarcity, emerging pests, and increasing global need in support of a resilient agricultural production system. The two-story, 59,000-square-foot facility will house four ARS research units. Collectively, the units will improve the health, sustainability, and profitability of agricultural production and natural resources in California and the western United States. The building will be a nexus for scientists to investigate plant diseases, plant genetic resources, soil health, and a number of other areas driven by long-term agricultural research.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

GDP at 7:30 a.m. CDT

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status report including Ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CDT

Weather

A front and system have moved into the middle of the country on Wednesday and will be a focal point for producing showers and thunderstorms. Some severe weather is expected across the eastern Plains into the southwestern Midwest. Breezy winds continue around the front as well.

South American Expanding Soybean Production

The U.S. soybean harvest will soon finish with expected record yields. South American farmers are already working on the 2024-2025 planting season, and Farmdoc (farm dock) Daily says Argentina may see its largest soybean acreage expansion in more than a decade. Brazil’s plantings are also expected to grow, albeit at their slowest pace in ten years. This surge in supply, driven by potential record production in both countries, could further depress international soybean prices in the months ahead. Brazil’s National Supply Company, Conab (KOH-nahb), says Brazil’s soybean acreage is projected to grow by 2.8 percent, reaching 117 million acres. This marks the slowest growth in ten years, driven by lower profit margins for farmers. If weather conditions are favorable, the 2024-2025 South American soybean crop is forecasted to reach 6.1 billion bushels, a 13 percent increase over the previous harvest. The Argentinian soybean crop is projected to hit 1.91 billion bushels.

Soy Growers Alarmed by EPA Action

The American Soybean Association is expressing concern after the Environmental Protection Agency imposed additional restrictions on farmers in a move that seemed driven by environmental groups. A new registration for glufosinate-P was announced on October 18, but the EPA was slow in releasing the final label for that registration. The label is finally available, and with its public posting, additional unwarranted restrictions are evident. Alan Meadows, an ASA Director, says, “EPA seems to have relented to pressure from environmental groups and decided to impose additional Endangered Species Act restrictions on farmers.” In their comments, the groups claimed the number of runoff points and the size of the spray drift buffers currently required by the EPA were insufficient. “Somewhere between the draft and final registration, EPA, without explanation, tripled the number of ESA runoff points required and imposed a new 10-foot spray drift buffer that farmers must adopt to use glufosinate-P,” Meadows said.

RFA Applauds California Move on E15

The Renewable Fuels Association applauded California Governor Gavin Newsom for directing the state’s Air Resources Board to expedite the approval of E15 in the state. California is currently the only state that doesn’t allow the sales of lower-cost, low-carbon E15. In a letter to the California Air Resources Board, Newsome wrote, ”Given the potential for allowing E15 gasoline to increase the fuel supply and reduce gasoline prices with little to no environmental harm, it’s prudent for CARB to prioritize resources that would allow for the rapid completion of the process, and I am directing CARB to accelerate its action on this critical issue.” Newsom’s letter cited a recent study by economists from the University of California at Berkley and the United States Naval Academy that showed E15 could result in a twenty cents per gallon price decrease for the state’s drivers, saving California families up to $2.7 billion per year.

U.S. Cattle on Feed Down Slightly

Despite the cattle inventory plummeting to the lowest level in 73 years, the number of cattle on feed remains surprisingly strong. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million on October 1, 2024. That number is slightly below the inventory on October 1, 2023. The inventory included 7.00 million steers and steer calves, up one percent from the previous year. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.6 million head, down one percent from 2023. Feedlot placements during September totaled 2.16 million head, two percent below last year. Net placements were 2.1 million head. Fed cattle marketings in September reached 1.7 million head, two percent below 2023. The average all-fresh retail price for beef hit record highs in six of the last seven months, while the cash price paid to farmers fell from July to September.

“Now, Next, Future” Checkoff Strategy at DMI Annual Meeting

Dairy Management Inc. President and CEO Barbara O’Brien outlined “Now, Next, and Future” checkoff strategies to more than 800 dairy farmers and industry representatives at their recent annual meeting. The meeting included the United Dairy Association, the National Dairy Promotion and Research Board, and the National Milk Producers Federation and was held in Phoenix, Arizona. O’Brien shared that consumer retail dollar spending and volume sales for dairy are increasing, up three and two percent, respectively, year to date. All categories are experiencing volume growth compared to last year. “Make no mistake, we’re experiencing what I call a dairy renaissance,” O’Brien said. “You’ve seen the headlines and heard the discussions on social media, and it’s clear the narrative is shifting, and it’s our time.” She also noted the data indicates that the millennial generation (28-43 years old) is primarily behind the dollar and volume growth based on their newfound positive perceptions of dairy.

Iowa Culls More Than One Million Birds

After the sudden closure of Pure Prairie Poultry left many farmers stuck with birds they couldn’t feed, Iowa has now culled approximately 1.3 million chickens after being unable to find a market for the birds. Iowa’s Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship said it euthanized birds between October 17 and October 25 due to the unavailability of buyers, a lack of processing capacity, and the costs to feed and care for the birds. The state had taken custody of the birds when the Minnesota-based company shut its doors and closed its Iowa processing plant, laying off 138 workers. Iowa had an offer from Tyson Foods to buy the birds for processing when they reach market weight. However, that offer was pulled back at the last minute after creditors threatened to sue for part of Tyson’s profits. State officials received court permission to euthanize the birds on October 11.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 8am CT

Consumer Confidence and Job Openings at 9am CT

Livestock and Meat Domestic Data from ERS at 2pm CT

Weather

A storm system is moving into the Plains on Tuesday morning, which will be the first of several that will move through over the next 10 days or so. Scattered showers have already started in the Northern Plains, with more widespread showers and thunderstorms forecast to develop later Tuesday and Tuesday night across the Central and Southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. It may be cold enough for snow around Wyoming while winds increase in the country's midsection as well.

Nearly Three-Quarters of Louisiana in Exceptional Drought

Drought conditions are worsening in Louisiana, where cattle producers say some land has deep cracks that can break ankles and water troughs have been put out where they’ve never been needed before. Exceptional drought conditions continue to impact nearly three-quarters of the state of Louisiana. Cattle producers say some land has deep cracks that can break ankles and water troughs have been put out where they’ve never been needed before. Shannon Midkiff, a cow-calf producer in DeRidder, Louisiana, says the drought has impacted his operation “tremendously” this year. Midkiff says not only has his herd been affected, but he’s seeing the economic strain of the drought. He was only able to grow and harvest 25% of the hay that he normally produces to feed his herd through the winter months. As a result, Midkiff says he’s had to outsource hay and purchase grain mixes.

Corn Farmers Facing Worst Year Since 2007

Corn farmers could be in for their worst year in close to two decades, economists say, as the Federal Reserve reports that crop prices remain “unprofitably low” in its latest assessment of economic conditions. Last week’s Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book largely “confirmed things we were already thinking,” Michael Langemeir, a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University, told Agriculture Dive, with dismal crop prices standing in stark contrast to the strong livestock sector. “This is one of the worst years” for corn and sorghum prices since the ethanol boom began in 2007, says Langemeier. High input costs following COVID-19 have created more of a difficult environment for row croppers, though the decline in crop prices has provided a boon to the livestock industry by lowering feed costs.

Pesticides Detected in California Air Samples; Environmentalists Alarmed

California state regulators report that they have found detectable levels of pesticides floating in the air in multiple, large farming regions. Although state officials insist that none of the samples exceeded safe limits, environmentalists and anti-pesticide activists say the compounds pose a far greater risk than the state is willing to acknowledge. According to a new state report, the California Department of Pesticide Regulation, or CDPR, collected weekly air samples last year in Oxnard, Santa Maria, Shafter and Watsonville, and found pesticides in nearly 80% of the samples. Environmental groups say the testing demonstrates that these chemicals are drifting into nearby communities and being inhaled by passersby. The compounds have been linked to a variety of health conditions, including respiratory illness, neurological issues and some types of cancers, they say. All detected pesticides were found below state-established health limits, meaning they are “unlikely to be harmful to human health,” according to the CDPR air monitoring report.

American Family Farms Going Broke

Across the country, skyrocketing prices, wages and operating costs have shuttered hundreds of thousands of American farms. MSN reports in the past five years alone, over 140,000 American farms have tilled for the last time. Going back to 1950, 66% of all U.S. farms — 3.75 million farms in total — have stopped producing. The number of acres farmed has dropped by 323 million, which is roughly double the size of Texas. Agriculture experts worry as family farms across America gasp to stay afloat and go broke. “We have been losing family farmers at an alarming rate for 50 years now, and every time we go through these cycles like we are currently in, we lose more,” according to Scott Blubaugh, the president of American Farmers & Ranchers/Oklahoma Farmers Union. Agricultural economist Cesar Escalante said it’s the smaller farms that suffer because their backs are against the wall.

Riskiest States for Countryside Driving

Wyoming has been identified as the most dangerous state for rural motoring, with a worrying 19.76 rural crash fatalities per 100,000 residents. This rate starkly contrasts with Massachusetts, which recorded the safest rate at just 0.43 fatalities per 100,000. These results are from a recent study conducted by Lucky Gambler and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, the focus was placed on the dangers of driving on rural roads across the United States in 2022. Mississippi and Montana followed as the second and third most dangerous states, with rural crash fatality rates of 15.87 and 15.49 respectively. Farms dot com reports these figures highlight the heightened risk associated with driving in less urbanized areas. The study further lists South Dakota, South Carolina, and Arkansas among the top ten most perilous states for rural drivers, all exceeding 11 crash fatalities per 100,000 residents in rural settings. These statistics underscore the disproportionate number of fatalities occurring on rural versus urban roads in these regions.

Chiquita Ordered to Pay $38 Million in Wrongful Death Case

A federal judge entered judgment against Chiquita Brands International, Inc. for $38.3 million, confirming a jury’s June 2024 verdict. The compensation is for the wrongful deaths of seven Colombian nationals, which a jury found were caused by Chiquita’s financial and material support to violent terrorist groups in Colombia. The six-week trial concluded with a unanimous verdict against the company. AgNet West reports U.S. District Judge Kenneth Marra had delayed the final judgment to consider Chiquita’s argument that Colombian law, which would limit compensation to $52,000 per claim, should apply. However, the court rejected Chiquita’s interpretation, ruling that even if such limits existed under Colombian law, they would not apply to a U.S. corporation. This landmark decision marks the first time a U.S. corporation has been held liable in an American court for human rights violations committed against foreign nationals outside U.S. borders.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Export Inspections at 10 am CT

Crop Progress at 3 pm CT

Weather

A storm system is moving through the western states on Monday, bringing some showers there, but also is the start of a much more active pattern for the middle of the country. Warm temperatures are building while winds will start to pick up this afternoon in the Plains.

Mississippi River System Levels Dropping

For the third year in a row, the Mississippi River is experiencing low water levels during harvest season. In the spring and early summer, precipitation and water levels were quite robust. Mike Steenhoek (STEEN-hook), executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, says once the calendar moved past mid-July, precipitation decline significantly, which caused a steady and dramatic decrease in water levels. There was a brief rise in water levels near Memphis after Hurricane Helene, but once the surge of water passed through the system, those water levels quickly returned to where they were earlier. “In certain areas of the river, we’re seeing several feet of draft reductions due to the low water,” Steenhoek says. “For each foot of draft reduction on the river, each barge carries 7,000 fewer bushels of soybeans, which is roughly 200 tons.” The draft is the distance between the waterline and the lowest part of the hull.

Trials for H5N1 Vaccine Beginning in South Dakota

Medegene, a South Dakota based animal health company, has begun a field trial for their H5N1 vaccine in cattle. The trial began earlier this month at a contract research facility. The goal of the field trial is to demonstrate a reasonable expectation of efficacy and preliminary safety in animals specific to the company’s vaccine, data that would support a conditional license by the USDA. Dr Alan Young is co-founder and Chief Testing Officer for Medegene. “As unfortunate as the H5N1 spread is, this is exactly the kind of situation our technology was created to address,” Young says. “Our goal from the very beginning of this outbreak was to be ready for our cattle customers whenever the USDA gave us the green light.” The company’s H5N1 cattle vaccine study is expected to be complete in five weeks, with results then shared with the USDA. Medegene is based in Brookings, South Dakota.

Double Cover Crops by 2030

Farmers for Soil Health is a group that empowers farmers to lead the charge in sustainability. The group puts real money directly into their hands to drive change where it matters most: at the farm level. FFSH has an initiative program to offer an opportunity for farmers to make a meaningful impact on soil health while benefiting financially. In the program’s first year alone, 238 farmers enrolled over 78,000 acres, pushing the initiative closer to its goal of doubling cover crop adoption to 30 million acres across the U.S. by 2030. Participating farmers who plant cover crops get payments to help transition totaling $50 per new acre over cover crops planted over a span of three years. Farmers with existing cover crops can get a one-time payment of $2,000 per acre. Farmers in 20 states are eligible for enrollment in the cost-share programs. For more information go to farmersforsoilhealth.com.

NMPF Annual Meeting Spotlights H5N1 Vigilance

U.S. dairy farmers are staying resilient in the face of H5N1 influenza outbreaks while advancing in policy areas like nutrition and milk pricing. Those remarks came from NMPF Chairman Randy Mooney at the organization’s annual meeting in Phoenix. The meeting was held jointly by NMPF, the National Dairy Promotion and Research Board, and the United Dairy Industry Association. “With everything we do, the future is going to take a level of cooperation and coordination from all of us,” said Mooney, a Missouri dairy farmer. “We’ve had that, but it’s going to take more than we’ve ever had.” In the past year, dairy producers have grappled with HPAI and delays in a farm bill that expired in September even as milk prices have risen and consumer demand stayed strong. Underpinning the entire industry is USDA’s plan for Federal Milk Marketing Order modernization, which is likely to get voted on early next year.

Dietary Guideline Recommendations a Mixed Bag for Pork

The National Pork Producers Council expressed concerns about the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee’s latest report. The group criticized the lack of a scientific basis for recommending plant proteins as a replacement for animal proteins. “While pork producers support the Committee’s recommendation to increase protein intake, their recommendation to replace animal proteins will severely compromise the America diet, as plant proteins aren’t nearly as nutritionally rich.” The Committee recommended moving beans, peas, and lentils from the vegetable group to the protein group. NPPC says this is deceiving to Americans as there are essential nutrients in animal proteins that plant proteins don’t provide. This also puts at risk infants, young children, adolescent girls, pregnant and lactating women, and older adults, as they require higher amounts of protein and nutrients that are provided by animal-based proteins. NPPC will continue to engage with the Departments as a scientific voice for the U.S. pork industry.

Sheep Producers Climate-Smart Grant Producer Program Accepting Enrollments

The American Lamb Board has received a USDA Climate-Smart Commodities Grant to measure the benefits of targeted sheep grazing on carbon sequestration, soil health, and related ecosystem services. This program allows up to 150 sheep producers to participate and expand climate-smart practices beyond the initial four plot sites. Among the program requirements, producers will work with Technical Assistance Providers to develop operational plans, implement climate-smart practices, and organize farm data to assess emissions. Producers can receive up to $7,000 to support their participation in climate-smart management and emissions reporting efforts. To qualify for the program payment, producers must meet several requirements, including establishing farm records with the USDA Farm Service Agency. “This Climate-Smart Grant offers a valuable opportunity for producers to adopt sustainable practices, enhance their farm’s long-term productivity, and receive financial support to offset costs,” says ALB Chair Jeff Ebert. For more information or to sign up, go to lambboard.com.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Food Price Outlook at 8 am CT

Consumer Sentiment at 9 am CT

Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage at 2 pm CT

CFTC Commitment of Traders at 2:30 pm CT

Weather

A system is moving through the Midwest Friday morning with scattered showers. However, the system is weakening and showers will be more sporadic by the afternoon. Some cooler air is moving in behind the system, but only briefly.

Fall Harvest Double Digits Ahead of Last Year’s Pace

Reports show the U.S. corn and soybean harvests are double digits ahead of their five-year averages. Farm Policy News credits the fast pace to dry weather stretched across most of the U.S. through the past week. Corn harvest jumped 18 points nationally to 65 percent complete as of last Sunday, 13 percent over the five-year average. Soybean harvest slowed a little over the past week but still rose 14 percent to reach 81 percent completed as of last Sunday. Industry reports say the soybean harvest is moving along at its fastest pace in 14 years, and the corn harvest is moving at the fastest pace since 2021. The quick harvest pace and crop size is putting a strain on physical storage capacities for many grain handlers. As the dry weather continues accelerating the harvests, some grain handlers are forced to store their corn outside rather than in harvest bins.

Soybean Exporters Rushing to Get Shipments Sent Out

Grain merchants are racing to ship out a record-large harvest ahead of the upcoming presidential election. Marine Link says fears of renewed trade tensions with China, the top soybean importer, are driving the push. USDA data released earlier this week says almost 2.5 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans were inspected for export the previous week, including almost 1.7 million tons headed to China, the largest amount in the last year. Prices are hovering near four-year lows, and if this heightened export demand doesn’t last, that may leave the U.S. with a glut of oilseeds. Tariff threats are causing some Chinese importers to not take U.S. shipments from January 2025 onward. Buyers are said to be looking to Brazil’s soy crop. They’re paying up to 40 cents a bushel more than they would in the U.S. in a quicker than expected seasonal shift that’s shrinking the U.S. export window.

NCBA Slams Dietary Guidelines Recommendations

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association slammed the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee’s unhinged recommendations that replace high-quality protein like beef with beans, peas, and lentils. “The preview of the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee stands out as one of the most out-of-touch, impractical, and elitist conversations in the history of the process,” says NCBA VP of Government Affairs Ethan Lane. “After 22 months of public discussion and lip service to transparency, we are disappointed by the number of chaotic new directions proposed at the literal last minute.” He also says NCBA laughs at the suggestion that beans, peas, and lentils are going to replace lean red meat and fill all the nutrient gaps Americans are facing, noting that it’s a dangerous and deceptive idea. “Beef contributes only five percent of the calories in the American diet but more than five percent of essential nutrients like potassium,” says NCBA Registered Dietitian Dr. Shalene McNeil.

SAF Coalition Welcomes New Legislation on Clean Fuel Production

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Coalition applauded the introduction of the Expanding Clean Fuel Production Act. SAF Coalition Executive Director Alison Graab says the legislation would extend the Section 45Z  clean fuel production credit for ten years. Graab appreciates the effort to extend incentives for sustainable aviation fuel. “We look forward to advancing sustainable aviation fuel to demonstrate a clear commitment to the environmental and economic promises that SAF holds, and incentives that are durable and attract investment are essential to unlocking the potential and driving the progress needed to grow the SAF industry,” she says. Representative Brad Schneider of Illinois, a bill co-sponsor, says a ten-year extension would allow sustained investment in production to accelerate the transition to cleaner fuels and significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions from the aviation industry. “We’re already seeing the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act’s investments in U.S. production of sustainable fuels,” he adds.

U.S. Egg Production Down Two Percent, Milk Production Slightly Higher

U.S. egg production totaled 8.92 billion during September 2024, down two percent from the same time last year. Production included 7.65 billion table eggs and 1.27 billion hatching eggs, of which 1.18 billion were broiler-type and 91.3 million were egg-type. The average number of layers in the U.S. during September totaled 375 million, down three percent from last year. September egg production per 100 layers was 2,381 eggs, up one percent from September 2023. Total layers in the U.S. on October 1, 2024, were at 377 million, two percent below last year. September milk production in the 24 highest-producing states reached 17.5 billion pounds in September, 0.2 percent higher than September 2023. Production per cow in the 24 states averaged 1,966 pounds for September, eight pounds higher than September 2023. The number of milk cows on farms in those 24 states totaled 8.89 million head, 200,000 less than in September 2023.

Pork Industry Scholarship Applications Open

The National Pork Producers Council is accepting 2025 Lois Britt Memorial Pork Industry Scholarship applications. Ten $2,500 scholarships are awarded annually to college students who intend to pursue a career in the pork industry and aspire to become leaders in the industry. CME Group and the National Pork Industry Foundation sponsor the scholarships. “The strength of America’s pork industry lies in the hands of its future leaders,” says Lori Stevermer, NPPC President and Minnesota pork producer. The scholarship program honors NPPC’s former board director Lois Britt, a lifetime supporter of agriculture and member of the NPPC Pork Industry Hall of Fame. Any undergraduate student enrolled in a two-year swine program or four-year college of agriculture may apply. Applicants are evaluated by essay submissions that describe current or future issues confronting the pork industry with proposed solutions. For more information on the scholarships or to apply, go to nppc.org.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Grain Export Sales report at 7:30 am CT

Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 am CT

S&P flash U.S. service and manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index at 8:45 am CT

Livestock and Poultry Slaughter at 2 pm CT

Weather

A small system is exiting the Rockies into the Northern and Central Plains Thursday morning. While showers are rather unimpressive early Thursday morning, they should grow throughout the day, including some risk of thunderstorms across Minnesota down through northeast Kansas by the evening as the storm continues east overnight.

Many Economists Believe Ag is in a Recession

Over half of the 70 ag economists surveyed in Farm Journal’s Monthly Survey of Ag Economists believe the U.S. agriculture economy is in a recession. Seventy-five percent of the other economists believe the ag economy is on the brink of a recession. The 75 percent of economists who believe the ag economy is on the brink of a recession is up from the 56 percent who responded that way in the previous month’s survey. Michael Langemeier of Purdue University is one of the economists who say it’s in a recession and says he defines the current recession as one of the worst we’ve seen in the last 20 years. “So my short answer to the question is yes,” Langemeier says. “Just looking at where the prices are currently at, this is the worst year we’ve seen since 2007.” Producer expectation levels have dropped back to those last seen in 2016.

USDA Begins Issuing Funds to Producers

USDA will issue more than $2.14 billion in payments to eligible agricultural producers and landowners, providing much-needed support through conservation and farm safety-net programs. Producers should soon receive payments from the Farm Service Agency for their participation in these programs aimed at conserving natural resources and keeping family farms economically viable. Program participants are expected to receive more than $1.7 billion through the Conservation Reserve Program and CRP Transition Incentive Program. The agency will also send out more than $447 million through the ARC and PLC programs. Additionally, FSA will invest another $21 million for projects to better measure the effectiveness of CRP. “Conservation and safety net program payments are significant investments in preserving and protecting our valuable and vulnerable natural resources and they provide protection for producers impacted by market volatilities,” says FSA Administrator Zach Ducheneaux. “These programs support voluntary land stewardship and producers with risk protection and stability.”

Bird Flu Possible in Four Washington Farm Workers

The Centers for Disease Control is sending a team to Washington state after reports surfaced of four workers who were thought to potentially have bird flu. They were culling poultry that were suffering from bird flu infection and are presumed to have caught the virus. If the infections are confirmed, Reuters says that would make Washington the sixth state to identify human cases this year. A spokesman says the CDC is sending the team to support the state’s assessment of the farm workers. The risk to the public from the outbreak in cattle remains low, but those with exposure to infected animals are at heightened risk. Washington’s health department says the workers’ use of protective gear was inconsistent as they were working at an infected egg farm hit by a strain from wild birds. Nationwide, 27 people had tested positive for the virus this year before the cases in Washington.

Weekly Corn, Soybean Inspections Jump

A USDA report says inspections of corn and soybeans jumped week to week while wheat assessments declined during the week ending on October 17. Corn inspections rose to almost one million metric tons, up from 506,000 the prior week and 472,000 tons during the same week last year. Examinations of soybeans for overseas delivery also jumped to 2.43 million metric tons, up from 1.91 million tons the previous week. However, that total was lower than the 2.63 million tons inspected during the same week last year. Wheat inspections dropped to 268,000 tons, down from 380,000 the week before but still notably higher than the 170,000 tons assessed at the same point in 2023. Since the marketing year began, USDA has inspected 5.79 million metric tons of corn, higher than in 2023 at the same time. Soybean inspections are at 7.9 million metric tons, down from 8.1 million in 2023.

USDA to Boost Wildlife Protection

The USDA will boost wildlife habitat protection as the Biden administration enters its final months. In a department memo issued Monday, Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack directed agencies to coordinate more closely on protecting lands across different types of ownership, including making wildlife habitat a high priority in various conservation programs. In the memorandum, Vilsack said many animals rely on vast swaths of connected habitat that can be broken by development or disrupted by disease outbreaks, among many other factors. Agency officials told reporters during a conference call that protecting those landscapes can coincide with agricultural production such as ranching, and he says it involves an array of USDA initiatives like the Conservation Reserve Program. The agency’s goal is to improve terrestrial wildlife habitat connectivity and corridors in a way that recognizes and leverages state and Tribal authorities, capitalizes on public land management, and respects property rights through voluntary conservation efforts.

High-Quality Wheat Detailed in Crop Report

As a key part of its commitment to transparency and service, U.S. Wheat Associates has produced the 2024 U.S. Crop Quality Report that includes grade, flour, dough, and baking data for five of the six U.S. wheat classes. This report provides essential and objective information to help buyers get the wheat they need at the best possible value. The 2024 Crop Quality Report is now available for download. “After the past few challenging years, my colleagues and the farmers we represent are glad to say that there is good production and quality news about U.S. Wheat Supplies,” says USW President Vince Peterson. “The 2024 report shows the larger new crop offers our customers the milling and baking qualities needed to produce the highest quality wheat foods, and greater opportunity to thrive in the coming year.” USW will also share quality information in person through Crop Quality Seminars in other countries.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Existing Home Sales at 9 am CT

EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status w/ Ethanol production at 9:30 am CT

Broiler Hatchery at 2 pm CT

Weather

A dry front sagging through the northern half of the country is bringing in a sharp drop in temperatures, though most areas are still near or even above normal for late October. Meanwhile, heat continues in the south and will rebound in the Plains.

Biofuel Groups Welcome Supreme Court Decision on SREs

The Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy were pleased with a Supreme Court decision on Small Refinery Exemptions. They issued a joint statement saying the Fifth Circuit Court wasn’t the right venue to hear challenges on small refinery exemptions. “Because the Fifth Circuit opinion set up a clear split with several other courts on the venue question, this is precisely the sort of issue that the Supreme Court is meant to resolve,” the statement says. “The court has agreed, and we look forward to participating in the case and settling the issue for good.” The groups also say the refining community’s abuse of small refinery exemptions destroys demand for biofuels nationwide, which negatively impacts farmers and bioethanol producers regardless of where they operate. “The economic and environmental impact of this abuse does not recognize state lines,” the groups add. “The decision in this case should give producers some much-needed certainty.”

AFT Collaborates with Real Farmer Care

American Farmland Trust will collaborate with Real Farmer Care as the fiscal sponsor to support and advance farmer and rancher self-care and well-being. The Real Farmer Care’s founding mission is to support farmers’ self-care needs and allocate donated funds directly to farmers and ranchers as $100 self-care awards. Self-care is the practice of taking an active role in protecting and improving one’s well-being and happiness, particularly during stressful times. Self-care activities can be inexpensive but rarely get prioritized. “As rigors in responsibilities and challenges continue for farmers, it's critical that now more than ever they have the resources at hand to improve their well-being,” says AFT President and CEO John Piotti (pee-AHT-tee). “AFT could not be any more grateful to Real Farmer Care in this alliance to promote healthy farmer and rancher mental health.” For more information, go to Real Farmer Care or American Farmland Trust.

Organic Growers Summit 2024 in December

The Organic Growers Summit is set for December 4-5, 2024. The show is put on by Farm Progress and features a lineup of expert-led seminars, industry-leading speakers, and a special keynote panel. Attendees will get insight into the evolving organic market, including education on ag technology, soil health, innovations, and government regulations. The event’s keynote panel will provide insights into the future of organic farming. Matt Jungmann of Farm Progress says this year’s revamped schedule gives Organic Grower Summit attendees a unique chance to connect with industry experts in the field and on the retail side, explore innovations, and learn how to make their operations more efficient and profitable. To view the seminars and to register, go to the show’s official website at organicgrowersummit.com. Other presentations include a whole-systems approach to managing pests and weeds and answering the question of whether Ag tech will make organic more profitable.

USDA Releases the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook

The USDA’s beef production outlook is noticeably higher from September. Third- and fourth-quarter 2024 production is forecast to be higher than last month, raising the annual forecast to 27 billion pounds, just above 2023 production. U.S. dairy milk production is expected to decline in 2024 due to lower yields from aging cows, adverse weather, and limited replacements. Imports are expected to increase while exports remain mostly stable. Projected broiler production is adjusted down slightly in 2024 on recent slaughter data but revised upward in 2025 on favorable hatchery indicators and feed prices. Projected broiler exports were adjusted down in 2024 and 2025 on recent data and strong global competition. Wholesale broiler price expectations are higher based on recent price data and strong demand expectations. Projected turkey exports in 2024 were also adjusted down slightly. Projected turkey prices were adjusted down for the fourth quarter of 2024 and in 2025 based on weaker demand.

USDA Invests Funds for Food and Nutrition Security

The USDA announced an investment of more than $46 million in projects aimed at tackling food and nutrition insecurity in underserved communities. The funds also support healthy diets by providing more access to fruits and vegetables for eligible families. “Healthy, safe, and affordable food is essential for a strong start for children and a healthy life for all of us,” says USDA Deputy Ag Secretary Xochitl (so-CHEEL) Torres Small. “With these funds, we’re investing in healthy food options for people no matter where they live and supporting stronger local and regional food systems.” Funding for 20 projects under the Community Food Projects Competitive Grants Program brings together stakeholders from distinct parts of the food system and fosters an understanding of national food security trends and how they might work together to improve local food systems. This investment is expected to help catalyze small production agriculture and increase food access for low-income Americans.

Grocery Store Shopping is Changing

In 2022, the USDA’s Economic Research Service Eating and Health Module captured the first nationally representative data about how many U.S. residents grocery shop online. The data featured in the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics’ American Time Use Survey revealed that about one in five shoppers purchased groceries online at least once in the 30 days prior to the survey. ERS researchers performed an analysis to look at the differences in the likelihood of online grocery shopping within the past month among a wide variety of personal characteristics. The largest disparity among any of these characteristics was the difference in an individual’s education level, from nine percent for those with less than a high school diploma to 26 percent of those with more than a bachelor’s degree. Those with a bachelor’s degree or higher were 17 percentage points more likely to buy groceries online.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Cotton Ginnings at 11 am CT

Weather

A small upper-level low that produced some streaks of heavier rain in the Central Plains on Monday is falling apart as it moves into the Midwest, but there will still be a few showers Tuesday. A stronger front is moving through the Northern Plains and will cruise through the Upper Midwest as well, bringing down temperatures significantly from Monday and offering some limited showers of its own. Otherwise, very warm and dry conditions continue for most of the country.

Drought Conditions Persist in Wisconsin

The majority of Wisconsin is experiencing abnormally dry to severe drought conditions according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. When I looked at the weather maps for the next two weeks, I was struck by how dry it’s supposed to be, according to Wisconsin State Climatologist Steve Vavrus. Even with the strong cold front over the weekend, which often brings rainfall when you have that big of a temperature change, it still looks like a pretty dry one. While dry, warm weather has been beneficial for harvest progress, Vavrus thinks conditions could become too much of a good thing. If we don’t get rain pretty soon, we’re going to start being a little concerned about soil moisture going into next year’s growing season. Once you get into late fall and winter, whatever the soil moisture is in place at that point locks in and that’s what you’re stuck with come spring next year.

Distressed Agricultural Borrowers Get $250 Million in USDA Assistance

The Department of Agriculture announced an additional $250 million in automatic payments for distressed direct and guaranteed farm loan borrowers under Section 22006 of the Inflation Reduction Act.  With the assistance more than 4,600 producers across the country will see another production season, said Zach Ducheneaux, Farm Service Agency administrator. Some 4,650 financially distressed farmers who owe money on USDA direct and guaranteed loans will share $250 million in payments from the government. USDA said it has provided roughly $2.4 billion in assistance, including that announced last week, to 43,900 distressed borrowers with funding from the 2022 climate, healthcare, and tax law. The new round of money will go to borrowers who did not receive assistance previously. It would be split into $235 million for delinquent loans and $15 million for borrowers with shared appreciation agreements on their guaranteed loans.

AFT Distributes Over $700,000 to Farmers Nationwide

American Farmland Trust announced the disbursement of over $700,000 to 139 farmers across the United States through this year’s Brighter Future Fund. Over 50% of those awarded identified as beginning farmers, with 30% being under 34 years of age. And over 60% of those awarded identified as women. Grants were awarded to help these farmers invest in professional services, vital equipment and infrastructure with a special emphasis on improving farm viability, accessing farmland, and adopting regenerative agricultural practices. Over half of those awarded have projects focused on projects focused on improving the overall viability of their farms. Additional grants were made available this year to farmers and ranchers affected by the historic Smokehouse Creek Fire in the Texas Panhandle. The funds will allow farmers to rebuild and replace infrastructure, equipment, cattle, and more that were destroyed in the early 2024 wildfires.

Self-Driving Tractors May Help Fill Agriculture’s Labor Shortage

A farm in Sonoma County, California had 27 tractor driver positions open and posted the positions on various job boards. The farm didn’t get a single applicant for weeks. A few weeks later, the owners onboarded an autonomous tractor system for the farm and updated the job listing to say they were looking for an agtech operator position. In the preferred qualifications they listed “video game experience.”  The applications came rolling in. “You’ve opened up a whole new workforce for agriculture,” Tim Bucher, CEO of the ag startup Agtonomy, said. “One that’s never driven a tractor before.” Tractor giant Deere and software startup Agtonomy have emerged as some of the major players driving the autonomous revolution. While the two companies are focused on different sectors in agriculture, their end goals are the same: Helping farmers make more money by making smarter decisions about their operations. There’s obviously struggles with labor shortages around the country, and so people are always looking at ways to how they can get more done in the shortest amount of time, said John Deere’s Micheal Porter,

ARS Studying Precision AG Applications in Arid Regions

One of the main challenges of irrigating crops is that available water sources contain salt. Over time, repeated waterings from these sources lead to salt accumulation, damaging soil fertility. This issue is especially acute in the arid and semi-arid regions found in much of the western United States. To address the issue, the Agricultural REsearch Service’s Agricultural Water Efficiency and Salinity (AWES) Research Unit in Riverside, California are using remote sensing and precision technology to aid growers in arid regions. They are beginning to apply the techniques of digital and precision agriculture to help growers provide their crops with the water they need without harming them, or the soil, in the process. One approach is to develop crops with a higher salt tolerance, including working to understand that trait at a genetic level. Researchers have also leveraged remote sensing data from satellites to inform their picture of salinity levels in fields. They have used remote sensing data from satellites to inform their picture of salinity levels in fields.

Ag Industry Groups File Suit in Challenge of H-2A Rule

The International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA) and nine co-plaintiffs filed a lawsuit contesting the U.S. Department of Labor’s regulatory overreach and limitations on the freedom of speech of farmers who employ temporary workers. “DOL is exacerbating an already enormously challenging labor crisis for growers and agriculture employers across the country. This lawsuit challenges the unauthorized process through which DOL passed this rule and the unlawful and unconstitutional impacts it has on American agriculture employers,” says IFPA CEO Cathy Burns The lawsuit, filed in the Southern District of Mississippi with representation, requests a permanent injunction of DOL’s Improving Protections for Workers in Temporary Agricultural Employment in the United States. In August, the court in Kansas v. U.S. Department of Labor – a similar case in the 11th Circuit brought by 17 state attorneys general, the Georgia Fruit and Vegetable Growers Association, and Miles Berry Farm – found the rule unconstitutional and enjoined DOL from enforcing it within the 17 states.

Monday Watch List

Markets

USDA Food Expenditure data at 8 am CT

Grain export inspections at 10 am CT

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators at 11 am CT

Crop Progress at 3 pm CT

Weather

An upper-level low is moving through the Plains Monday morning bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some pockets of good rain will fall, but most areas will see insufficient amounts. A front will be moving into the Northern Plains with some areas of showers there through Monday night as well.

U.S. Loss Would Be South America’s Gain

A new economic study paints a troubling picture of the potential results a new U.S.-China trade war could have on hundreds of thousands of rural communities. It shows that American-imposed tariffs would come at a steep cost to American farmers and ranchers while benefiting Brazil and Argentina. The study was commissioned by the American Soybean Association and the National Corn Growers Association and showed an immediate drop in corn and soy exports to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. Brazil and Argentina would immediately step in to claim the lost market share. “The study highlights the dangers that come with broad tariffs on imports,” says NCGA Lead Economist Krista Swanson. “While launching tariffs may seem like an effective tool, they will boomerang and cause unintended consequences.” ASA Chief Economist Scott Gerit says the study shows a significant trade war would easily compound the challenges placing stress on America’s producers.

AgriSafe Network Steps Up Support for Hurricane-Hit Communities

Hurricanes Helene and Milton had devastating impacts on the southeastern United States. Communities in many states are facing unprecedented challenges. Many areas were left in ruins, including severed communication lines and local support systems struggling to respond to the crisis. In recognition of the critical need for mental health support during these challenges, AgriSafe is offering FarmResponse® training seats at no cost to those providing counseling services to ag communities affected by the hurricane. This training will assist in providing the best possible care to the state’s agricultural communities impacted by disasters. It’s vital to not skip mental health while trying to make a physical recovery. AgriSafe’s FarmResponse program equips health professionals to foster resilience and instill hope in agricultural communities that are in desperate need of both. For more information and to access open seats, go to agrisafe.org. FarmResponse is listed in the Suicide Prevention Resources Best Practices Registry.

AEM Tour Concludes in Wisconsin

The AEM Manufacturing Express concluded its cross-country tour when it returned home to Wisconsin for final stops. The tour launched on July 1 and traveled across 22 states, celebrating the 2.3 million men and women of the U.S. equipment manufacturing industry and highlighting their roles in building, powering, and feeding the world. The tour, launched by the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, stopped at 80 equipment manufacturers across the Midwest, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic regions. “The AEM Manufacturing Express has been a unique platform to celebrate the grit and determination of the men and women in the equipment manufacturing industry,” says AEM President Megan Tanel. Throughout the tour, AEM showcased the cutting-edge technology and innovations that drive the industry. Each stop featured an interactive experience called the “Manufacturing Challenge” that gave people the chance to test their knowledge. Participating manufacturers included companies like AGCO, CNH Industrial, Deere and Company, Kubota, and many others.

Gevo Receives $1.5 Billion for SAF Plant in South Dakota

Gevo (JEE-voh) Inc., a developer of net-zero hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals, received a conditional commitment for a loan guarantee with disbursements totaling $1.46 billion from the Department of Energy. The funds will be used for a Net-Zero 1 project in Lake Preston, South Dakota. The facility will use 100 percent U.S.-sourced feedstocks and is designed to produce approximately 60 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel, about 1.3 billion pounds of protein and animal feed products, and approximately 30 million pounds of corn oil per year. “This marks a watershed moment for the Net-Zero 1 project and a critical step forward in our mission to transform the aviation industry by providing a sustainable and economical renewable carbon-based jet fuel,” says Gevo CEO Patrick Gruber. A recent report shows the facility will create over 100 direct jobs and hundreds of local indirect jobs, with an economic impact of more than $100 million.

Connecting More Rural Americans to High-Speed Internet

USDA’s Undersecretary of Rural Development, Dr. Basil Gooden, announced nearly $173 million in funding to connect rural residents, farmers, and business owners in the Dakotas and eight other states to high-speed internet. “Keeping the people of rural America connected with reliable, high-speed internet brings new and innovative ideas to the rest of our country and creates good-paying jobs,” Gooden says. “Thanks to the ReConnect Program, we are connecting the most rural and remote communities in our country to a global marketplace.” He also says the funding will drive economic security and rural prosperity for generations to come. The ReConnect Program is designed specifically to fund the most difficult high-speed internet projects in the nation in the most rural, remote, and unserved communities. The USDA has invested more than $4 billion in 345 ReConnect Projects that will help bring high-speed, reliable internet access to more than 600,000 people throughout rural America.

Turkey Production Down From 2023

The USDA says turkey eggs in incubators in the United States as of October 1, 2024, were down nine percent from October 1 of last year. Eggs in incubators were down two percent from the September 1, 2024, total of 25 million eggs. Turkey poults hatched during September 2024 in the U.S. totaled 20.4 million, down five percent from September 2023. Poults hatched were down one percent from the August 2024 total of 20.7 million poults. The 18.2 million net poults placed in September 2024 in the United States were down five percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net poult placements were down ten percent from the August 2024 total of 20.1 million. As far as feed options in the future, a 2024-2025 USDA Feed Outlook is for reduced supplies despite an increase in output. Sorghum supplies were raised but offset by lower corn carry-in.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Weekly export sales out at 7:30 am CT

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook out at 2 pm CT

CFTC Commitment of Traders report out at 2:30 pm CT

Weather

Warm air continues to spread eastward through the country on Friday. A front has moved into the Plains and will produce some areas of showers as well.

USDA Makes Indemnity Payments After Hurricane Helene

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack announced additional assistance to help producers impacted by Hurricane Helene in their recovery process. USDA is announcing that counties that have triggered for payment under the Hurricane Insurance Protection Wind Index (HIP-WI) endorsement for Hurricane Helene. As a result, Approved Insurance Providers have 30 days to issue payments to producers, but those providers typically issue payments much sooner. “Several states across the southeast experienced devastating damages from Hurricane Helene, which caused significant destruction right before the harvest season,” Vilsack says. “USDA will support farmers through the recovery process for the long haul, and that includes today’s step of making innovative types of coverage available and getting funds into the hands of producers quickly.” Georgia’s indemnity payments top the list at a combined $207.7 million. A full list of the Farm Service Agency disaster assistance programs is available on the Hurricane Helene webpage at farmers.gov.

Baldwin Wants Help for Wisconsin Poultry Growers

Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) called on the USDA to provide immediate assistance for Wisconsin farmers who were impacted by the sudden closure of Pure Prairie Poultry. The shutdown left the state’s poultry producers staring at crippling financial losses without feed and a processor for the birds. “Hard-working Wisconsin farmers have been left high and dry by the abrupt closure of Pure Prairie Poultry,” says Senator Baldwin. “Our agriculture industry is the beating heart of many of our communities, and, in the face of this dire situation, I’m calling on USDA to do everything they can for these Wisconsin farmers who face financial ruin through no fault of their own.” She also raised concerns for the animal’s well-being and the potential for this closure to exasperate the avian flu outbreak as farmers are resorting to giving away chickens by the tens of thousands. Pure Prairie Poultry filed for bankruptcy in September.

Protect the Harvest Shutting Down

Protect the Harvest will cease operating on October 31, 2024, citing funding challenges that began during COVID. The organization was created in 2011 as a non-profit educational and advocacy effort to promote and defend American farmers and ranchers, improve food security, protect property rights, ensure animal welfare, and support outdoor sports. Protect the Harvest has kept many people safe from a myriad of threats. “The current economy has made it challenging for many individuals and organizations that have supported us in the past,” says Mike Siemens, Protect the Harvest Executive Director. “It’s been frustrating and disappointing to see the number of issues we confront multiply while our resources to address them have been diminished.” He also says it’s even more heartbreaking because they still hear from many stakeholders about how much they value Protect the Harvest and the work they do. “Other organizations will have to fill in,” he said.

Sorghum Checkoff Announced Leadership Class VII

The United Sorghum Checkoff Program released the names of the Leadership Sorghum Class VII. This program is designed to cultivate the next generation of leaders and advocates for the sorghum industry. “The strength of the sorghum industry depends on developing leaders who can advocate for the future,” says Kendall Hodgson, USCP Chairman. “With a growing demand and evolving challenges in agriculture, Leadership Sorghum plays a vital role in preparing producers to represent and promote our industry with knowledge and confidence.” Seventeen farmers have been selected from states like Alabama, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and others. “Leadership Sorghum is instrumental in shaping the future of our industry by equipping producers with the skills and knowledge needed to lead and advocate at every level,” says Shelee Padgett, Leadership Sorghum Program Director. “The leaders we develop are vital to continue the future success of the entire sorghum industry.” For more information, go to leadsorghum.com.

Investments will Strengthen School Meals

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack emphasized USDA’s commitment to connecting local farmers and producers with schools nationwide that serve meals to about 30 million children every school day. Vilsack, joining others across the country in celebrating National School Lunch Week and National Farm to School Month, pointed to the Department’s recent investment of $500 million for schools to purchase unprocessed foods as the latest in a series of actions to support school meals through nutritious, domestic foods. “A healthier future for our country starts with our children, and American farmers and producers play a critical role in ensuring kids have healthy, tasty food with homegrown flavor to nourish them through the school day,” Vilsack says. “We know the school meals supply chain is the strongest when schools have relationships with local suppliers, which is why USDA will continue to support local foods in schools for a brighter future for our children.”

New Oat Ready for Battle Against Crown Rust

A team of Agricultural Research Service and university scientists released two new oat germplasm lines to shore up the crop’s defenses against the devastating fungal disease called crown rust. The team specifically created the oat lines so that they could be crossed with elite commercial varieties to fortify them with new genetic sources of resistance to crown rust. The disease can be a plague upon oats worldwide and inflict grain losses of up to 50 percent in unprotected crops. The crown rust fungus is a genetically diverse pathogen and highly adept at evolving into new virulent forms called races. This can happen so quickly that the average productive life of an oat variety with seedling resistance is between three and five years, necessitating the use of chemical fungicides in conventional production systems. The sturdy oat lines have been propagated for their seed, which is available for a variety of development programs.

New Analysis of Tariff-Induced Trade War Impacts

Farmers for Free Trade, the national trade advocacy coalition including America’s largest ag and food associations released a reaction to new trade analysis from the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association. The analysis evaluates the impacts of a trade war on soybeans and corn, two of America’s leading ag exports. Bob Hemesath (HE-meh-sath) is the Board President for Farmers for Free Trade and says the analysis shows that American corn and soybean farmers would be devastated by the re-emergence of a trade war. “The very real possibility that tariffs rise sharply would mean corn exports to China drop by well over 80 percent and soy exports would drop by half,” Hemesath says. “The analysis also shows that a trade war would reduce U.S. soybean and corn prices, which would harm rural economies across the country.” He also says a trade war would be a gift to international competitors.

USDA Recruiting Exports for Trade Mission to Thailand

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service will host its first-ever trade mission to Bangkok, Thailand, February 3-6, 2025. Current and potential exporters interested in participating should apply for consideration by October 29. “The mission represents an opportunity for our farmers, ranchers, producers, and agribusinesses to connect with potential trade partners from both Thailand and Burma,” says Daniel Whitley, administrator of the FAS. “Consumers in these markets are ready to stock their pantries with world-class, high-quality food and farm products offered by U.S. exporters that join the trip in February.” The U.S. was the fifth-largest supplier of agricultural products to Thailand in 2023, with $1.2 billion in exports. The top U.S. exports were bulk commodities used for feed and food manufacturing, but there are strong opportunities for consumer-oriented products as well. Thailand boasts the fourth-highest per capita income in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. For information or to apply, go to fas.usda.gov.

Mississippi River Falls During Record Harvest Season

Farm Policy News says that as the fall harvest of record corn and soybean crops is in full swing, Mississippi River conditions continue to get worse. It’s stalling barges trying to move up and down the channel, especially in the Lower Mississippi River. That means barge drafts and tow sizes have been cut. A draft is the distance between the waterline and the deepest points of the boat, which typically is 12 feet at 1,500 tons. On the Illinois River, barges are loaded to about a nine-foot draft at 900 tons. Each reduction in the draft means a barge’s cargo is cut by 200 tons. That will cost shippers more money as they’re paying for the same amount of money but shipping less freight than normal. More barges will be needed to pick up the slack. These costs typically get passed on to the farmers who haul grain to river terminals.

Ag Productivity Growth Falling Short of Meeting Global Demands

A Virginia Tech study shows a dramatic slowdown in agricultural productivity that threatens the world’s ability to feed a growing global population and manage environmental challenges. That’s according to the 2024 Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Report. The report says that while research, development, and high-tech farming tools are being developed at a steady pace, a substantial “valley of death” separates the development of new innovations from the people who need to adopt them. Agricultural total factor productivity growth is critical for ensuring that agriculture can meet the growing global demand for products by 2050. “Global agricultural productivity growth has slowed from 1.9 percent annually during 2001-2010 to 0.7 percent annually during 2013-2022,” says Tom Thompson, the report’s executive editor. “This dramatic slowdown will prevent us from reaching our agricultural production and sustainability goals by 2050, with potentially dire impacts on food and nutrition security unless we reverse this trend.”

AVMA Anticipates No Dire Shortage of Veterinarians

A recent analysis of the drivers of supply and demand for veterinary services shows that the number of graduates from existing veterinary colleges is likely enough to meet demand through 2035. The conclusion comes after a study commissioned by the American Veterinary Medicine Association. The projections in this analysis do not justify a conclusion of overall excess capacity or a capacity shortage by 2035. Meantime, the population of veterinarians is likely to grow faster than pet-owning households if all 13 proposed veterinary schools become accredited. With 33 colleges already recognized by the AVMA Council on Education, this would represent almost a 40 percent increase in the next ten years. Vet visits are declining from a peak achieved in 2021 and 2022. Data shows prices for those veterinary services have been increasing as well. The Veterinary Industry Tracker says that’s caused a slowdown in the volume of vet services.

AccuWeather: Another Mild Winter Ahead for Parts of the U.S.

On the heels of one of the warmest summers on record, AccuWeather long-range experts are forecasting a mild winter with above-average temperatures in three dozen states. The U.S. recently had its warmest winter season on record last December through February, and much of the country will see mild temps again. “We will likely have a weak La Niña for most of this winter,” says Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok. “We expect the storm track to dive south into California this winter, which can result in periods of mild air moving across the Central and Eastern U.S. at times.” However, with a weak signal of La Niña, some cold can push into the Midwest and Northeast. Based on data from previous winters with a similar setup, Pastelok says February is the likely month for the polar vortex to usher in a blast of bitterly cold air across the eastern U.S.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Imports and Exports and Import Price Index out at 7:30 am CT

EIA weekly petroleum status report, including ethanol production and stocks at 9:30 am CT

ERS Oil Crops Outlook at 11 am CT

ERS Feed, Wheat, Rice Outlook at 2pm CT

Weather

Cold temperatures continue east of the Rockies early Wednesday, with frosts that have gotten as far south as Oklahoma and just south of the Tennessee border Wednesday morning. Warmer temperatures will spread into the Plains late in the day, however. And with increasing winds, it should become more dangerous for wildfires for the rest of the week.

Poultry Company Abandons Producers

Pure Prairie Poultry declared bankruptcy and shut down with little notice, affecting workers at a processing plant in Iowa and contract growers in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The Wisconsin Farmers Union says this has left farmers in dire straits, with thousands of birds to feed and no feed or compensation coming. The growers are reporting that they will have to euthanize tens of thousands of birds because it’s too expensive to feed that many out of their own pockets. Reports say Pure Prairie Poultry received $45 million in taxpayer subsidies in 2022. Chickens in some of the company’s Wisconsin sheds haven’t been fed for more than a week and have resorted to cannibalism to survive. No feed or relief from their suffering is in sight as Pure Prairie Poultry is no longer feeding the birds and refusing to respond to any inquiries from its contracted farmers about the situation.

Combine and Tractor Sales Fall in September

U.S. sales of ag tractors dropped by 19 percent in September of this year compared to September 2023. New data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers says combine sales also fell during the month, dropping 41 percent compared to last year. The 100-plus horsepower tractor segment fell the most from last year, dropping almost 27 percent in September of 2024 compared to last year. Four-wheel-drive tractors were the segment’s only gain, selling 1.7 percent more year-to-date from January through September 2024. “September’s ag tractor and combine sales follow a summer that showed a cyclical slowdown in sales,” says AEM senior vice president Curt Blades. “These declines point to the overall softness in the ag economy.” Sales of ag tractors in Canada also dropped in September 2024, finishing the month 25 percent behind the total sales in September 2023. Combine sales in Canada fell 52 percent compared to last year.

Wyoming Governor Issues Order to Protect Livestock from Wildfires

Just weeks after wildfires burned through almost half a million acres in Wyoming and Montana, more devastating wildfires are popping up around the Cowboy State. As communities tried to pick up the pieces after the devastation, Wyoming received a USDA Disaster Declaration to help assist in agriculture’s recovery from wildfire damage. State Governor Mark Gordon issued an emergency transport order to protect livestock and the ag industry in the fire’s area. Ignited by a lightning strike in late September, the Elk Fire is breaking records as the largest wildfire to tear through the Big Horn National Forest in 100 years of recorded history. According to the Fire, Weather, and Avalanche Center, as of October 9, the Elk Fire had scorched 75,969 acres with only 16 percent containment. Reports say as many as 889 personnel are working to put out the large fire. Unusually dry weather conditions have not improved the situation.

4-H Updates its Strategy to Better Prepare Youth

The national 4-H program launched Beyond Ready, a nationwide initiative designed to empower ten million young people with the skills, resilience, and confidence they need to thrive in a changing world. While schools play a critical role in education, 4-H says they can’t do it alone. As the largest youth development organization in the country, 4-H is equipped to bridge the gap between school and the working world. Employers are increasingly focusing on skills extending beyond traditional subjects, with 77 percent stating the need for analytical thinking, creativity, resilience, and adaptability. To meet their goals, 4-H outlined multiple key initiatives to drive the Beyond Ready Campaign, including partnerships with land-grant universities to provide more college credit and credentialing programs. 4-H will also invest in educators by expanding Positive Youth Development training opportunities, as well as mobilizing the 4-H network to accelerate impact by leveraging key partnerships with government agencies and universities. 

U.S. Corn Production Up While Soybean Production Drops

Friday’s USDA Crop Production Report showed corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up less than one percent from the previous forecast, but down one percent from last year. Soybean growers are expected to increase their production by ten percent from 2023, with the forecast at 4.58 billion bushels. Based on conditions as of October 1, corn yields are expected to average 183.8 bushels per harvested acre, up 0.2 bushels from the previous forecast and 6.5 bushels higher than last year. Soybean yields are predicted to average 53.1 bushels an acre, down fractionally from the previous forecast but up 2.5 bushels from 2023. The report also included a production forecast for U.S. cotton. The all-cotton production is forecast at 14.2 million 480-pound bales, down two percent from the previous forecast, but up 18 percent from 2023. Yields are expected to average 789 pounds per harvested acre, 18 pounds below September.

USDA Releases October WASDE

The October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report says the 2024-2025 corn outlook is for smaller supplies, larger exports, and reduced ending stocks. With supply falling and use rising, ending stocks are cut 58 million bushels to two billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 a bushel. U.S. soybean production is forecast at 134.4 million tons, down 0.3 million from last month. With lower soybean production partly offset by slightly higher beginning stocks, supplies are lowered by 2 million bushels to 4.9 billion. The season-average soybean price is unchanged at $10.80 a bushel. The outlook for U.S. wheat calls for reduced supplies, larger domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Projected ending stocks are lowered by 16 million bushels to 812 million, still up 17 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price for wheat is unchanged at $5.70 a bushel.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Empire State Manufacturing survey out at 7:30 am CDT, FAS Grain Export Inspections report out at 10 am, USDA Feed Grains Database update out at 11 am, ERS Wheat Data update out at 2pm, and USDA Crop Progress report out at 3 pm

Weather

Cold air continues to flood the country east of the Rockies Tuesday, bringing some more widespread frosts in the morning from Kansas to Pennsylvania and points northward. The cold air continues to produce some lake-effect rain showers in the Great Lakes as well.

Agricultural Leader Harley Janssen Joins NCGA

Harley Janssen, a farmer and leader with more than 20 years of experience in agriculture, construction and off-road technology, has joined the National Corn Growers Association. He will serve as the Director of Outputs and Measurements, a newly created position at the organization. The high caliber experience Janssen brings will help NCGA take its sustainability work to new heights. In his role, Janssen will translate and interpret production and sustainability data and help growers access new sustainability markets. He will play a crucial role as NCGA helps farmers access tax credits that will allow them to sell into the aviation sector. Janssen said that NCGA wants to make certain that existing private and public sustainability programs are as inclusive as possible when it comes to how they work with and assist corn growers.

Scientists Examining Corporate Influence over Food and Farm Bill

The Union of Concerned Scientists recently released a report analyzing the influence of lobbying on food and agriculture systems. The report finds that agribusinesses, industry associations, and other interest groups have spent more than US$500 million to influence legislation, including the Farm Bill, between 2019 and 2023. The Farm Bill is an omnibus bill that covers issues across food and agriculture systems including financial credit for farmers, resource conservation and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. It is renewed approximately every five years by Congress. The current Farm Bill, which expired in September 2023, was extended for an additional year, but that extension has now expired. The researchers looked at quarterly lobbying disclosure reports and campaign donations to Congress officials associated with the Farm Bill during reelection periods in 2019-2023 to determine the reach of influence of corporate lobbying over the bill. Karen Stillerman, Deputy Director of the Union of Concerned Scientists, emphasized the responsibility of legislators to uphold the needs of small and midsize farms, historically marginalized farmers, food workers, and consumers.

Helene Damage to Georgia Agriculture Tops $6B in Preliminary Estimate

The future is uncertain for thousands of Georgia farmers, the state’s agriculture commissioner said, with poultry growers and pecan farmers facing years of recovery from widespread destruction. Farmers in Georgia face billions of dollars in preliminary losses from destructive Hurricane Helene in what could be a catastrophic blow to the state’s agriculture industry. Agricultural damages are expected to reach at least $6.46 billion, according to an early estimate from the University of Georgia’s College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences. The total is based on crop losses, plus losses to businesses and workers supporting agriculture. Estimated losses are approximately three times that of Hurricane Michael in 2018, which caused at least $2 billion in damages and was considered one of the most destructive storms to hit the state.

Robots May Provide Answers to Herbicides Resistance

Farmers are looking to weeding robots as herbicide resistance solution. A new survey by the Illinois Center for Digital Agriculture finds more than half of corn farmers would adopt weeding robots. Ag economist Shadi Attallah says the prevalence of herbicide resistance weeds is a major factor. A $40,000 robot and a $20,000 robot were tested, according to Attallah, and he says, “As you might imagine, the more expensive the robot, the more I’m going to wait until I have more weeds and more resistance until I adopt the robot.” More than 93 percent of planted row crop acres in the U.S. have genetically modified herbicide resistance, but Attallah says the efficacy is declining. Some studies have shown that loss of efficacy via chemical control will lead to crop losses that can reach up to $100 billion per year. Attallah recently developed an integrated weed ecological and economic dynamic, or I-WEED, model system to understand what factors could impact farmer adoption. He says earlier use of robots did lead to better profits in the model.

Oregon Rewrites Dairy Regulations, Small Farmers Drop Lawsuit

The Oregon Department of Agriculture has rewritten its regulations on dairies, following push back from some small farmers. Previously, the ODA had warned dairy farms that they could face fines if they failed to register as Confined Animal Feeding Operations, or CAFOs. In a memo from last year, the agency said several raw milk producers were ignoring the registration requirement, creating environmental concerns and generating complaints from other dairies. However, critics argued the state’s criteria was too broad and would have saddled small businesses with regulatory requirements meant for large-scale farms. “It would have been very cost prohibitive to us to continue to operate the way that we do today, if at all,” said Sarah King with Godspeed Hollow, a two-cow farm in Newberg. “And that could have been the case for many other farms that look like us in the state.” In January, King joined three other raw milk farmers in a lawsuit against the ODA, accusing the state of protecting the corporate milk industry. “These rules don’t make sense for the small dairies, because they don’t create the kind of problems posed by these larger farming operations,” said Bobbi Taylor, a lawyer for the plaintiffs.

Lawmakers Ask EPA to Ban Paraquat

Forty-seven Democratic members of Congress have asked Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan to ban the use of the herbicide paraquat. The lawmakers, led by Texas Congressman Greg Casar, told Regan the chemical is particularly dangerous for farmworkers. The EPA says it has yet to find a scientific link between the use of the herbicide and Parkinson's disease. At the end of January 2024, EPA released a report on the ongoing review of paraquat. Due to the significant human health and environmental concerns associated with paraquat, roughly 70 countries have banned or discontinued the use of the chemical, including China, Brazil, the European Union, and Canada. Findings from researchers at UCLA found that paraquat sprayed within 500 meters of where people live and work can more than double a person's odds of developing Parkinson's disease.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Columbus Day Holiday -- Most futures will trade. U.S. Treasury market and bond futures are closed. Usual Monday reports such as export inspections and crop progress will be released on Tuesday.

Weather

A burst of cold air is moving into the country east of the Rockies early this week. Frosts and freezes in the Northern and Central Plains will spread south and east over the next couple of days. The cold is leading to some lake-effect rain showers across the Great Lakes as well.

Illinois Farmers Underutilizing Insurance Product

The Pasture, Rangeland and Forage Rainfall Index (PRF-RI) is a crop insurance product underutilized by Illinois livestock and forage producers.  Farmdoc Daily from the University of Illinois reports that only 6% of the eligible acres in Illinois were insured in 2024, much lower than use west of the Mississippi. Like other Federal crop insurance programs, PRF-RI is heavily subsidized.  Over time, PRF-RI has returned $1.29 in payments for each $1.00 in producer-paid premium. Illinois and Midwest livestock and forage producers should consider using PRF-RI as a risk management tool. PRF-RI has been available as a risk management tool for livestock and forage producers in Illinois since 2016. According to the 2022 USDA Agricultural Census, Illinois producers operated roughly 742,000 acres of pasture and 473,000 acres were harvested for hay production. In 2024, approximately 70,000 acres were enrolled in PRF-RI, meaning less than 6% of eligible forage land in Illinois is enrolled in this subsidized insurance program. 

New Report Reveals Ag Isn’t On Track to Meet Rising Demand

Global agriculture productivity is falling behind the curve according to a new report by Virginia Tech. “Global agricultural productivity growth has slowed from 1.9% annually during 2001-2010 to 0.7% annually during 2013-2022,” said Tom Thompson, the report’s executive editor, associate dean of the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, and director of CALS Global at Virginia Tech. “This dramatic slowdown will prevent us from reaching our agricultural production and sustainability goals by 2050, with potentially dire impacts on food and nutrition security, unless we reverse this trend.” Farm Journal reports agricultural productivity growth during this period was even lower in the U.S. – averaging 0.21% annually. The report’s authors attribute this in part to the lack of public funding in agricultural research and development. At the same time, South Asia led progress at 1.4%. Global total factor productivity should be at 1.91% annually to meet the demand projected in 2050, according to the report. But due to current productivity being so far below that level, it may actually need to rise to 2%.

Mormon Church pays $289M for dozens of US farms

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints’ real estate arm is paying $289 million to acquire tens of thousands of acres of farmland across eight states. Farmland Reserve, a nonprofit arm of the Mormon Church, is buying 46 farms from real estate investor Farmland Partners. The farms encompass 41,500 acres of land and include sites in Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and the Carolinas. Doug Rose, CEO of Farmland Reserve, said the company plans to lease “these productive farms to local farmers.” The LDS Church owns approximately 1.7 million acres of land primarily used for agriculture, according to Landgate, a commercial real estate advisory service, making it one of the largest institutional landholders in the U.S. It’s estimated the church owns $16 billion worth of property across the country, with around $2 billion for agriculture land.

H5N1 on the Rise in California Dairy Herds

As a rapidly increasing number of California dairy farms suffer outbreaks of H5N1 bird flu, industry experts say it remains unclear just how the disease may affect the nation’s milk supply or pricing. As of Oct. 9, the nation’s largest milk producing state had reported 93 H5N1 outbreaks in dairy herds — nearly doubling in the span of a week. The Los Angeles Times reports there have also been three confirmed and two presumptive cases of human infection. All five cases were among Central Valley dairy workers who had no known connection. State and federal health authorities insist that H5N1 poses little threat to humans and that it is safe to drink milk that has been pasteurized, because the process kills the virus. However, dairy farmers and veterinarians are reporting far greater rates of mortality among infected herds than anticipated and steep drops in the rate of milk production among recovered cows

Court Denies Petition for Stronger EPA Regulation of Large Livestock Farms

A federal judge rejected a petition from environmental activists for more strict regulation of large livestock operations in a win for the U.S. meat industry. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, based in San Francisco, threw out a lawsuit that would have changed how the Environmental Protection Agency regulates concentrated animal feeding operations. Pork producers applauded the decision. The lawsuit, filed and led by Food & Water Watch, challenged the EPA’s decision last year to deny a petition that would have required all farms to obtain permits to operate their CAFOs unless they could prove they’re not a source of pollution. In their petition, activist groups argued livestock operations are releasing pollution into waterways in violation of the Clean Water Act. In its decision, however, the court agreed with the EPA’s approach to regulating livestock production, including the formation of a subcommittee to study water quality issues, saying it was important to “seek information about how best to tackle the problem” before crafting new regulations.

USDA Projects a Record Ag Trade Deficit in 2024

U.S. agricultural exports were at $13.01 billion in August, essentially unchanged from July, against imports of $17.19 billion, which were down 2% from July, resulting in a monthly trade deficit of $4.18 billion. AgWeb reports exports thus far this fiscal year total $161.3 billion compared to imports of $188.82 billion, creating a cumulative deficit of $27.52 billion. The sector has recorded monthly deficits in 10 out of 11 months in FY 2024, with three months seeing deficits of $4 billion or more and eight months with a deficit of $1 billion or more. USDA forecasts agricultural exports at $173.5 billion and imports at a record $204 billion for a projected record trade deficit of $30.5 billion.

In FY 2023, the trade gap was $17.1 billion. Based on the FY 2024 forecasts and cumulative trade data, agricultural exports in September would need to reach $12.2 billion to meet the USDA forecast, while imports would need to be $15.18 billion.

Friday Watch List

Markets

At 7:30 a.m. CDT Friday, the U.S. Labor Department will report on producer prices for September. The University of Michigan's index of U.S. consumer sentiment for early October is scheduled for release at 9 a.m. USDA's WASDE and Crop Production reports are due out at 11 a.m., followed by DTN's report webinar at 12:30 p.m.

Weather

Quiet conditions are found across most of the country for Friday. A cold front going across the north could produce some isolated showers. A shower or two could continue over eastern Oklahoma as well. Otherwise, warm and dry conditions continue again.