Changes to the Enhanced Coverage Option Insurance Program

The USDA announced changes to the Enhanced Coverage Option Policy Program beginning with the 2025 crop year. The Risk Management Agency is expanding coverage options to additional crops and increasing premium support to make the policy more affordable for U.S. producers. “RMA is continually responding to needs and adapting our insurance coverage options to give producers more choices for managing their risks,” says administrator Marcia Bunger. ECO is currently approved for 36 crops, and the RMA is expanding coverage options to almonds, apples, blueberries, grapes, and walnuts for the 2025 crop year and to citrus crops where the Supplemental Coverage Option is currently available in California and Arizona for the 2026 crop year. Additionally, the RMA is increasing premium support for all crops covered by ECO to 65 percent to make the policy more affordable. ECO provides additional area-based coverage for a portion of a producer’s underlying crop insurance policy deductible.

USDA Extends Comment Period on Packers and Stockyards Rule

The USDA recently extended the 60-day comment period for the latest Packers and Stockyards Act proposal by 15 days. Tanner Beymer, senior director of government affairs for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, says that’s not enough time for USDA to properly evaluate the rule. “Cattle markets are immensely complicated, and USDA is planning to make sweeping changes to those markets with only 75 days of public input,” Beymer says. “While this extension is welcome news, it’s not enough time to properly solicit public comments and review a rule that will have such an overarching impact on the cattle industry.” The proposed rule, “Fair and Competitive Livestock and Poultry Markets,” is already a direct attack on producer profitability, and now USDA is running down the clock to provide meaningful input from cattle producers. The rule aims to ensure fairer competition and transparency, requiring poultry companies to document fair comparisons between growers.

New USDA Policy to Reduce Salmonella in Eggs

The Food Safety and Inspection Service issued a comprehensive proposed rule and determination to more effectively reduce Salmonella contamination and illnesses associated with raw poultry products. It’s the culmination of a three-year effort to reevaluate the FSIS strategy for controlling Salmonella rates in poultry and protect American consumers from illnesses linked to eating poultry products. Salmonella bacteria cause over one million human infections in the U.S. each year. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says food is the leading source of Salmonella infections and poultry is among the leading sources of foodborne illnesses. The proposal would establish final product standards to prevent raw chicken carcasses, chicken parts, ground chicken, and ground turkey products that exceed acceptable levels of salmonella from entering the food chain. “The proposed Salmonella framework is grounded in data and rigorous scientific evaluation and reflects stakeholder feedback,” says Undersecretary for Food Safety Dr. Emilio Esteban.

Tropical Rainstorm May Impact U.S. Coast

AccuWeather says a developing tropical rainstorm in the Atlantic Ocean could strengthen into a named storm later this week or during the weekend and bring potential impact to the U.S. coast. “The tropical rainstorm is currently battling a harsh environment in a sea of dry air as it moves west across the Atlantic,” says Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. The tropical rainstorm is currently moving through an area that’s not conducive for development but will soon move into an area with more favorable conditions. “Dry air and wind shear ripped this tropical rainstorm apart,” says Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. “It’s struggling and trying to reorganize from scratch, but it has a 60 percent chance of strengthening into a named storm no sooner than this weekend or early next week.” The rainstorm is moving through an area with very warm waters that can support development, but it will also encounter more disruptive wind shear.

Producers Invited to the 2024 Stockmanship and Stewardship Tour

The 2024 Stockmanship and Stewardship workshop tour gets underway in August. Producers in the heart of the driftless region can engage with esteemed cattle producers who have been recognized for their land stewardship efforts at the regional and national levels as they participate in an interactive panel, offering insights into their approaches to raising beef cattle while enriching their land. Attendees will see low-stress cattle handling demonstrations that teach how using the animals’ natural instincts helps improve cattle flow and makes handling easier and safer for both humans and animals. The program includes demonstrations using both beef cattle and beef-dairy cross cattle, providing tactics on how to move them based on their different instincts and behaviors. The tour kicks off August 23-24 in Richfield, Utah. After the tour stops in Lancaster, Wisconsin, August 28-29 and Fresno, California, October 18-19, it finishes up in Hamburg, New York on October 25-26.

The U.S. Dairy Industry is Evolving

The U.S. dairy industry has evolved during the past 20 years, with fewer dairy farms producing more milk. The USDA’s Economic Research Service says this raised questions about how dairy farms have changed in size, location, use of advanced technology, and cost of production. An ERS report addresses the issues of how the dairy farm structure has changed and how it differs by the size of operations and location. The study found that consistent with long-term trends, the number of U.S. dairy farms has fallen while milk production has risen. Moderate shifts in dairy farm locations have occurred between 2020 and 2022, with Texas and Idaho gaining production share while California lost some share. Dairy farm usage has trended upward for several advanced technologies, management practices, and production systems. Larger farms, on average, were more specialized in production and greater adopters of the most advanced technologies and management practices.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

The U.S. employment cost index for the second quarter will be out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Wednesday, followed by the U.S. Energy Department's weekly energy inventory report at 9:30 a.m. The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates at 1 p.m. and is expected to keep the target unchanged with an upper limit of 5.50%.

Weather

Heat continuing across the South-Central U.S. on Wednesday will feed scattered showers and thunderstorms as a front moves across the Western Corn Belt. Some of these thunderstorms may be severe and could put out a lot of rain as storms hit areas that have already been hit this week. Many areas will be unfortunately missed and those that are will sit in the heat, reducing soil moisture and stressing row crops.

Non-Real Estate Loan Activity Higher in 2024

As commodity prices have continued to drop, many producers may face economic losses with less balance sheet resiliency. The economists at Agricultural Economic Insights say recent loan data revealed that farmers utilized more non-real estate debt in early 2024. In the first quarter of 2024, total non-real estate debt was 14 percent higher than in 2023. AEI says non-real estate loans increased at the fastest rate in five decades. The last time non-farm real estate debt jumped so quickly was in the late 1970s. However, while the 15 percent increase is rare, increases of 10 percent, which are also large, have occurred quite frequently. With margins squeezed, producers are utilizing more non-real estate debt, especially operating loans. AEI says while the upturn is noteworthy, the rise hasn’t pushed overall debt to record levels. Non-real estate debt trended lower between 2019 and 2023. Higher debt levels will contribute to higher interest expenses.

Farm Expenditures Top $480 Billion in 2023

The USDA estimates 2023 farm production expenditures in the U.S. at $481.9 billion, up from $452.5 billion the previous year. The four largest expenditures totaled $238.7 billion and accounted for 49.6 percent of total expenditures in 2023. These include feed at 16.6 percent, livestock, poultry, and related expenses at 11.6 percent, farm services accounted for 11.3 percent, and labor at 10.1 percent. In 2023, the U.S. saw the total average farm expenditure reach $255,047, up 12.4 percent from $226,885 in 2022. On average, U.S. farm operations spent $42,340 on feed, $29,479 on livestock, poultry, and related expenses, $28,800 on farm services, and more than $25,600 on labor. Total fuel expense in 2023 was $16.5 billion. Diesel was the largest sub-component at $10.9 billion, accounting for 66 percent. Diesel expenditures were down 4.4 percent from 2022. Gasoline expenditures reached $2.8 billion, down 5.7 percent from the previous year. LP gas reached $1.8 billion.

USDA Trade Mission to Colombia

Alexis Taylor, USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs will lead 24 agribusinesses and organizations on a trade mission to Bogota, Colombia, August 13-15. The mission’s goal is to boost American agricultural exports and build upon the successes of the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement. “Colombia is a significant growth market for U.S. agricultural exports,” Taylor says. “As Latin America’s third-most-populous country, it features an expanding middle class and rising consumer purchasing power.” She also says Colombian consumers are hungry for world-class food and agricultural products that the U.S. offers. In 2023, U.S. agricultural exports to Colombia reached a record $3.7 billion. Colombia ranks as the seventh-largest market for U.S. agricultural exports, while America is the top export market for Colombia’s agricultural products. Colombia’s gross domestic product is expected to continue growing and remain slightly higher than the regional average, setting the table for continued interest in U.S. products.

USDA Invests in 29 States to Lower Energy Costs

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack announced that the agency is partnering with farmers and businesses to expand access to clean energy and lower energy bills through the Rural Energy for America Program and the Rural Energy for America Technical Assistance Grant Program. USDA is investing $163 million in loans, grants, and technical assistance, that will support 338 clean energy projects in 39 states and Guam. “We’re partnering with people in rural communities across our nation to expand access to clean energy and save rural Americans money,” Vilsack says. “We’re hard at work supporting rural small businesses and farmers as they create jobs for their communities and drive economic prosperity.” REAP enables agricultural producers and rural small business owners to expand their use of wind, solar, geothermal, and small hydro-power energy to make energy efficiency improvements. Those innovations help them increase their income, grow their businesses, and lower energy costs for American families.

Corn Growers Want Reasonable Standards for SAF Tax Credits

The Biden administration should set fair and reasonable criteria around farming practices for farmers and refineries seeking tax credits for sustainable aviation fuels. Those are comments from the National Corn Growers Association submitted to the USDA. “Ethanol has played a critical role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in cars and trucks and can do the same for the airline industry,” said NCGA President Harold Wolle (WOOL-lee) after the comments were filed. “But we need a level playing field that allows farmers to meet emissions requirements using environmentally smart practices that will work on their farms.” The issue stems from tax credits allocated under the Inflation Reduction Act for sustainable aviation fuels that would allow farmers to participate in this emerging market. “Imposing a one-size-fits-all standard for attaining the tax credit will make it hard for farmers to contribute to the president’s grand challenge,” he added. “We can help meet those climate goals.”

Sheep Industry Developing a Producer Education Program

The American Sheep Industry Association’s Young and Emerging Entrepreneurs group has received a grant of $89,580. The money comes from the National Sheep Industry Improvement Center to develop a beginning producer education program. It will incorporate online education, producer workshops, and an online forum. “We started the conversation at the American Sheep Industry’s Annual Convention about developing a program,” says Dr. Kelly Froelich (FRAY-lick) of the Young and Emerging Entrepreneurs Steering Committee. “We’ve already developed the online curriculum which will be open to everyone.” Because the committee doesn’t want to overwhelm beginners, the program is basic. They’re seeing an upswing in the number of people interested in sheep, and they want to do everything possible to help answer their questions. In-person workshops will be held in Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. A fall lambing school in South Dakota is in the works. For information, go to SheepUSA.org.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Of course, grain traders will be watching the latest forecasts as we near August. An index of U.S. consumer confidence for July is due out at 9 a.m. CDT Tuesday and the Federal Reserve will hold the first of a two-day meeting with no change in the interest rate expected at Wednesday afternoon's announcement.

Weather

A front moving through the eastern Midwest and another moving into the Northern Plains are connected through Iowa, and clusters of showers and thunderstorms will be developing across the Corn Belt throughout the day. Any cluster will be able to tap into the heat building across the Southern Plains that is extending farther north into the Iowa front and could become severe with a primary focus of strong winds.

Consequences of No New Farm Bill

The farm bill is already a year late, the stakes are high, and time is running out. The American Farm Bureau released its Market Intel Analysis of the consequences of not finishing the legislation and adding another extension of the 2018 bill. While crop insurance is a permanent program, it does need improvements to make it more affordable for all farmers. Plus, the fixed statutory reference prices that were set in 2014 don’t account for unforeseen market forces like the exceptional inflation in recent years. Also, by delaying the farm bill another year, Congress would be delaying help that could slow the consolidation rate of dairy farms. The farm bill’s conservation programs are defined by a fixed amount of money being available, and like the safety net programs, their value gets eroded by high inflation. The farm bill is also a chance to increase research funding and enhance U.S. food security.

EPA Releases Draft to Protect Endangered Species from Insecticides

The Environmental Protection Agency released its draft Insecticide Strategy. It’s part of an effort to adopt early, practical protections for federally endangered and threatened species. “Ensuring the safe use of insecticides is a critical part of the EPA’s mission to protect endangered species and the environment,” says Jake Li (Lee) of the EPA. “We’re making a significant effort to protect endangered species, support farmers and other insecticide users, and provide critical environmental protections for communities across the country,” Li says. The draft strategy identifies protections that the EPA will consider when registering a new insecticide or reevaluating an existing one. EPA identified protections to address potential impacts for more than 850 species listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The draft identifies protections earlier in the pesticide review process, thus creating a far more efficient approach to evaluate and protect the species that live near the agricultural areas using insecticides.

SAF Coalition Submits Comments on Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Coalition submitted comments in response to USDA’s request for information on a docket titled “The Procedures for Quantifying, Reporting, and Verification of GHG Emissions Associated with Producing Domestic Ag Commodities to Be Used as Biofuel.” In their comments, the Coalition supported USDA’s objective of accelerating the development and deployment of sustainable aviation fuels in the U.S. To achieve that objective, the Coalition urges USDA to consider four overarching principles during the rulemaking process. The SAF Coalition urged the agency to ensure federal policies are science-based and data-driven to unlock the full potential to develop and deploy SAF. They also encourage policies that are technology and feedstock-neutral, with the aim of reducing carbon intensity in a realistic and verifiable way. They’re also asking for sufficient flexibility to accommodate new feedstock technologies and to ensure simple and clear administrative practices that are implementable and manageable. 

Wheat Quality Council Tour Finds Reasons for Optimism

After three days of hard work, participants in the Wheat Quality Council’s Spring Wheat Tour came to the same conclusion. North Dakota farmers may have their best crop in decades. After three days of touring, the average Hard Red Spring Wheat yield was projected at 54.5 bushels per acre, up from 47.4 bushels last year. The durum fields visited had a prospective yield of 45.3 bushels per acre, up from the 2023 projections of 43.9. Two Hard Red Winter Wheat fields on the tour had a projected yield of 51.4 bushels per acre. Dave Green, the Executive Vice President of the Wheat Quality Council, said weather conditions in the weeks before harvest will determine if North Dakota can produce a record-breaking wheat crop. More than 40 millers, bakers, grain company representatives, media members, and government employees toured more than 250 fields of HRS and durum wheat in North Dakota, the host state.

Junior Angus Members Support McDonald House Charities

National Junior Angus Association members rallied behind the mission of supporting families and took part in the 2024 Angus Impact Project. Pop tabs, meals, and gift cards were donated to the Ronald McDonald House Charities of Madison, Wisconsin. Eighteen states collected 652 pounds of pop tabs, totaling $326, the single-largest donation to ever be made by one organization at the Madison Ronald McDonald House. NJAB vice chair, Lauren Gilbert, led the Angus Impact Project this year and said she was in awe of the number of pop tabs collected by the Association. “It was incredible to see how many people had turned up with so many pop tabs,” she said. Before the National Junior Angus Show, members also served 35 meals donated by Certified Angus Beef to residents on June 28. "Food brings people together, and that's huge, especially during times of need," she added. "It was great to help out." 

Reaching Consumers at a Dining Event

The American Lamb Board and Homemade, America’s largest cooking school, hosted a consumer dinner at the Seattle Cooking Studio on July 20. Consumers attending the event learned during a live cooking demo from chef and cookbook author Ashley Rodriguez  before indulging in American Lamb from Anderson Ranches, a local producer. The dinner featured four lamb dishes from various cuts, including the rack, shoulder, and leg. Reed Anderson of Anderson Ranches talked to attendees about local lamb production. “It’s a success when ALB can bring together ranchers, butchers, and chefs to educate consumers about the lamb from farm to table,” says ALB Chair Jeff Ebert. “These consumers left the event with so much information about how lamb is grown and how to prepare amazing dishes. We hope they’ll take this information home and start sharing the lamb story with their family and friends.” For more information, producers and consumers should visit LambBoard.com.

Top 5 Things to Watch - Hot Weather, Interest Rates Decision, Crop Condition Update

1. August heat rolls in: The United States Corn Belt will see hotter conditions in most areas this week. The Midwest sees more chances of showers, potentially severe, but those will be hit-and-miss through the week. Things are hotter and drier in the Plains, warmer as well in the Northern Plains and into Canada. Northern corn and soybeans crops can use some warmth after a cool and late start. What's unlikely is more rain to help. 

2. Crop condition watch: With weather systems turning warmer and rain spottier, we'll dig into the latest USDA NASs weekly Crop Progress report numbers Monday afternoon to judge where the overall crop sits as August moves in.

3. New interest rate? As we note below, Wednesday is the second day of the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, followed by announcement of any adjustments to federal funds interest rates. The usual press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell is later Wednesday afternoon. Our Under the Agridome columnist Philip Shaw recently wrote about how Canada has lowered its interest rate and the possible impact. See:

4. Wildfire watch: As wildfires grow in the U.S. and Canada, we'll be tracking damage areas. During the last few days several communities have had to be evacuated as fires spread.

5. Economic reports to watch: Monday. At 10 a.m., we see the latest Grain Inspections numbers. At 2 p.m. USDA releases Livestock and Meat Domestic Data plus Egg Products numbers. At 3 p.m. we have the USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress report including DTN analysis of those numbers. Tuesday sees the 8:15 a.m. Case-Shiller Home Price Index, followed by the 9 a.m. release of Consumer Confidence and Job Openings data. Wednesday reports begin at 7:15 a.m. with ADP Employment stats, then 9 a.m. the release of the Pending Home Sales Index. At 1 p.m., we'll get the FOMC Interest Rate Decision, followed by Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 1:30 p.m. At 2 p.m. we'll see Agricultural Prices and Broiler Hatchery reports. Thursday kicks off with Grain Export Sales and Initial Jobs Claims data at 7:30 a.m., then the 8:45 a.m. comes the S&P U.S. Manufacturing PMI data. At 9 a.m., Construction Spending. Friday reports start at 7:30 a.m. with U.S. employment report and U.S. Unemployment Rate and Hourly Wages. At 9 a.m. the latest Factory Orders data is released, then at 2:30 p.m. the CFTC Commitment of Traders report is released.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, grain traders will be checking the latest forecasts with a view to prospects for corn and soybean crop conditions in August. USDA's report of weekly export inspections will be out at 10 a.m. CDT Monday, followed by the weekly Crop Progress report at 3 p.m. Outside markets will be interested in the Fed's post-meeting comments on Wednesday.

Weather

Heat is building in the Southern Plains on Monday and excessive heat advisories and warnings are posted for many in the south-central U.S. A front moving through the Corn Belt will do its best to resist the building heat by producing areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may become severe.

NCBA Praises Passage of Interior Appropriations Bill

The Public Lands Council and the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association applauded House passage of HR 8998, the Department of Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act of 2025. The PLC says the bill protects the rights of land grazing permittees and reels in overreaching BLM regulations. “It addresses Endangered Species Act challenges, defends local communities against land grabs under the Antiquities Act, and recognizes the important role of ranchers – America’s original conservationists – in the stewardship of our nation’s lands,” says PLC President Mark Roeber. National Cattlemen’s Beef Association President Mark Eisele (EYES-lee) says whether you’re a cattle producer on public or private lands, over-regulation from the federal government is a serious challenge. “This package supports American agriculture, protects farms and ranches from burdensome rules, and protect the rights of public lands ranchers who represent an important part of the cattle industry and a driving force in rural economies,” says Eisele.

Deere Confirms More Layoffs

John Deere, faced with lower customer demand for equipment, declining sales, and a difficult ag economy, confirmed cuts in its global salaried workforce. Corridor Business says Deere didn’t release details on the number of salaried employees affected. In a statement, the company says it’s been forced to make tough decisions, including layoffs at John Deere production facilities and reductions in the global salaried workforce. The most recent round of cuts follow hundreds of previously announced layoffs of Deere’s production workers in recent months. The company didn’t release when the salaried workforce reductions would take place. In a statement, Deere said, “As the largest global manufacturer of agricultural equipment, John Deere, like many others, faces significant economic challenges, rising operational and manufacturing costs, and reduced customer demand, including a 20 percent decline in sales from 2023 to 2024.” Impacted employees get up to 12 months’ severance pay based on years of service.

Cotton Trust Protocol Continues Growing

The U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol announced its continued program expansion for the fifth consecutive year, both in enrolled growers and planted acres. Planted cotton acres enrolled increased to 2.1 million acres, up 31 percent from 2023 and is driven by a 35 percent increase in enrolled growers, demonstrating a strong commitment to sustainability in the cotton industry. “We are proud to see a steady increase in grower enrollment for the Trust Protocol for a fifth consecutive year, reflecting a continued commitment to sustainability throughout the cotton industry,” says Daren Abney, U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol Executive Director. “It is a collective effort that brings more responsibly produced cotton into the market, providing brands and retailers with greater access to sustainable sourcing options.” With 35 percent increase, enrollment for 2024 now totals 1,327 growers participating in the Trust Protocol. Enrolled acres for the 2023 crop year resulted in 1.9 million bales of cotton.

Ag-FDA Funding Bill Pulled From House Floor Vote

House Republicans pulled two government spending bills scheduled for a floor vote this week. Farm Policy News says the signals further peril for the leadership’s doomed efforts to pass all the 2025 spending bills before the August recess. The funding bills for the Agriculture Department and FDA, in addition to the Financial Services spending bill, will not be considered on the floor as originally planned. Both measures didn’t make it through the House floor thanks to controversial funding levels and conservative policy riders, including language blocking abortion and contraceptive protections. One report says the Ag-FDA funding bill was pulled off the House floor vote was that “conservative wanted an amendment vote to re-add the controversial abortion pill rider that centrist Republicans had stripped out. Tom Cole, an Oklahoma representative, said he had heard some pro-life concerns over changes to the ag funding bill Republicans expected to vote on this week.

Ag Banker Testifies on Farm Economic Conditions

The American Bankers Association provided testimony before the House Ag Committee and offered the association’s views on the financial conditions in farm country. Tony Hotchkiss, char of the Agriculture and Rural Bankers Committee, emphasized the critical role banks play in the agricultural economy as the primary source of credit to farmers and ranchers across the U.S. He said that at the end of 2023, more than 3,800 banks in the U.S. had agricultural loans on their books with a total outstanding portfolio of $198.6 billion. While farm banks are prepared to manage potential economic headwinds, Hotchkiss explained that many producers have worked through the liquidity and working capital they built up in recent years due to rising input prices and lower commodity prices. “Across the industry, many bankers believe they may be looking over a cliff in regard to the agricultural economy without changes to current government policy,” said Hotchkiss.

Judge Upholds Massachusetts’ Ban on Pork

District Judge William Young of Boston largely upheld Massachusetts’ Q3 pork law, rejecting an industry-backed attempt to block its enforcement. This law, known as the Prevention of Farm Animal Cruelty Act, bans the sale of pork from pigs kept in tightly confined spaces. The decision’s key points included the rejection of federal presumption. The judge dismissed arguments that the Federal Meat Inspection Act preempted the state law. He also says that the Massachusetts law merely bans the sale of non-compliant pork meat and doesn’t regulate slaughterhouse operations directly. While the majority of the law was upheld, the judge did rule that a specific provision known as the “slaughterhouse exception” was unconstitutional. The exception allowed certain processors to directly sell non-compliant pork to consumers. The judge determined that the unconstitutional provision could be severed from the rest of the law, allowing the main components of the legislation to remain in effect. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Commerce Department reports on personal incomes and consumer spending are due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Friday, the same time as the PCE inflation index for June. The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment for July will be out at 9 a.m. Grain traders continue to watch the latest weather forecasts with a view to conditions in August.

Weather

Scattered showers continue near the Gulf Coast on Friday, aided somewhat by an upper-level low in the Southern Plains. A front moving through the Northern Plains will bring some relief to recent triple-digit temperatures along with some isolated showers. Temperatures continue to creep upward in most areas east of the Rockies where showers aren't occurring with cooler air behind the front in the Canadian Prairies.

Defense Department Backs Off Lab-Grown Meat

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association confirmed that the effort to prevent ultra-processed, lab-grown protein in the diet of the American armed forces was successful. The announcement came following news that the U.S. Department of Defense is not pursuing lab-grown protein products for human consumption. “NCBA was the first and only group to fight back against lab-grown protein getting served to our armed forces,” says NCBA President Mark Eisele (EYES-lee). “After weeks of speaking out against the plan, we are thrilled to have DoD confirmation that lab-grown protein is not on the menu for our nation’s service members.” He also says the men and women who make the greatest sacrifices in service to our country deserve high-quality, nutritious, and wholesome food like real beef grown by American farmers and ranchers. “There’s a big difference between defense applications for new tools and our food,” says Sigrid Johannes, NCBA senior director of government affairs.  

Additional Steps to Protect Against Wildfires

The USDA announced additional steps to safeguard western communities in the face of increasingly dangerous and intense wildfires. The agency is building advanced wildfire detection capabilities using satellite technology. An agreement between USDA’s Forest Service, the Interior Department, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration allows the use of NOAA’s Geostationary and Operation Environmental Satellite. This new agreement will use advanced remote sensing capabilities to improve the speed and accuracy of wildfire detection. “This partnership is one of the many ways we’re investing in technology to improve firefighter and community safety,” says Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack. “Wildland firefighting will always require highly skilled individuals on the ground, but with more real-time information, we can reduce the risks to pilots and improve our response time, reducing the risk to impacted communities.” The satellite observations are not only valuable for detecting wildfires but will also be critical for observing smoke from those fires.

NASS Releases Watershed Report

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released its Watersheds Report, which provides data to supplement the 2022 Census of Agriculture. Watersheds is the first of six Subject Series to be released for this Census of Ag. The Watersheds Report breaks down select ag census data like farms, land in farms, land use practices, fertilizer and chemical use, and select commodities by using the six-digit Hydrologic Unit code boundaries. “Anyone concerned about the health of a given body of water or watershed should be interested in this data,” says NASS administrator Joseph Parsons. “The Watershed Report provides agricultural and environmental data users with a novel way to examine and compare ag census data.” The type of data in the Watersheds Report can be used by researchers, community organizations, policymakers, and producers themselves to help assess the impact or potential impact of agriculture on the environment and any surrounding bodies of water.

Pork Producers Donate $100,000 worth of Pork

Pork producers from Virginia, North Carolina, and Iowa announced a generous donation of $100,000 worth of pork products to the Capital Area Food Bank in Washington, D.C. That donation is the equivalent of 54,000 pounds of pork. The donation was a part of the $100K Pork Chop Challenge. Joe and Mandy Neuman of Sloppy Mama’s Barbecue won the $100K Challenge and were on hand for the donation, which was the culmination of the competition that celebrates the finest pork chop dishes in the Capital Beltway Area. “This donation is amazingly helpful to us so we can make sure that families in our region can access the food they need to thrive,” says Emily Lauer-Bader, director of corporate partnerships at the Capital Area Food Bank. The Challenge is hosted by the Virginia Pork Council, with support from the Iowa Pork Producers Association, North Carolina Pork Council, and the National Restaurant Association.

Clean Fuels Applauds Letter on 45Z Tax Incentive

Clean Fuels Alliance America applauded a bipartisan letter signed by 16 Senators and 36 Representatives and sent to the U.S. Treasury Department. The letter asks Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to publish proposed rules for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit and safe harbor guidance by September 1, 2024, and complete the final rulemaking no later than November 1, 2024. “Lack of regulatory certainty is already putting thriving businesses at risk as fuel producers are unable to make important business decisions regarding their fuel,” the letter says. “Capital investment remains uncommitted, threatening certain projects and expansion plans, including the administration’s stated goals to support new markets like sustainable aviation fuel and low-carbon transportation fuels.” Kurt Kovarik of Clean Fuels says biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel producers are already producing almost five billion gallons of the advanced biofuels that could qualify for this credit. “They need policy certainty immediately,” he adds.

Bird Flu in Dairy Cattle Can Be Stopped

Federal officials said this week that the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cattle can be eliminated. Stat News Dot Com says officials face increasing doubts from experts because the virus is still spreading to new herds. “All signs that we have are, with good biosecurity, with good farmer participation, we will be able to eliminate this,” says Eric Deeble, acting senior adviser for H5N1 response at USDA. He says the reason for the confidence is that investigations are showing that it’s the transportation of the cattle, as well as the shared use of equipment and vehicles, spreading the virus. Deeble says that means cutting off virus access to the cattle at those points in the delivery chain can contain it. “We understand this moves with the cattle and the people that work closely with them, so improving biosecurity should get us to a point where we can arrest the spread,” Deeble adds.

Thursday Ag News Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report is due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Thursday, the same time as weekly U.S. jobless claims, second-quarter U.S. GDP, U.S. durable goods orders in June and an update of the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. The U.S. Energy Department's weekly report of natural gas storage is at 9:30 a.m., followed by USDA's monthly cold storage report at 2 p.m.

Weather

An old frontal boundary continues to create a zone of showers and thunderstorms from southeast Texas to the Carolinas on Thursday where bouts of heavy rain will be possible. A new front is moving through the Canadian Prairies and into Montana during the day, which could spark some rain as well but mostly for northern Alberta. Heat is slowly building eastward ahead of that front into more of the Plains, being especially hot in the Northern Plains.

Pork Industry Fuels Jobs and the Economy

The National Pork Producers Council released a new economic contribution report detailing the significant impact America’s pig farmers have on the United States agricultural and overall economy. The report highlights the pork industry’s value chain contributions and trends in production and industry structure. Some of the report’s key takeaways include the pork industry supporting an estimated 573,311 direct, indirect, and induced jobs in the U.S. In 2023, more than 60,000 pig farms sold more than 149 million hogs worth over $27 billion in gross cash receipts. The pork industry supports more than $27 billion in personal income and boosts economic activity in services like trucking, grain elevators, insurance, and other rural-based businesses. “America’s pork industry is a vital pillar in our agricultural economy, contributing over $62 billion annually and supporting hundreds of thousands of U.S. jobs,” says Lori Stevermer, NPPC President. “Pork is a vital part of the national economy.”

Over 500 Groups Unite to Call for a New Farm Bill

Programs that benefit every family in America are too important to put off any longer. That’s the message from the American Farm Bureau and more than 500 other groups that sent a letter to Congressional leaders calling for the passage of a new, modernized farm bill. The groups signing onto the letter represent agriculture, nutrition, conservation, the environment, rural development, and several other economic sectors. The groups say in the letter, “Millions of Americans rely daily on the provisions of the farm bill to produce food, fiber, and fuel to feed their families and others around the world and to voluntarily conserve fish and wildlife and their habitat.” The groups recognize that time is running out to write and pass a farm bill this year. Passing a stopgap extension would put it at risk of further delay following the presidential election, seating a new Congress, and other legislative priorities.

Corn Grower Leader Testifies on Farm Financial Conditions

A corn grower-leader from Minnesota told the House Agriculture Committee that farmers across the country must have a reauthorized and strengthened farm bill. “Unless conditions change, I believe we are heading into a perfect storm, a storm I don’t think will be fully appreciated until early next year when farmers try to get loans and are unable to do so because they can’t demonstrate the ability to cash flow,” says Minnesota Corn Growers President Dana Allen-Tully. “We have to have policies in place that reflect the realities of farming today.” She also says the stakes in farming are incredibly high, higher than she’s ever remembered them to be. “We’re putting everything we have on the line every year for very thin and oftentimes negative margins,” she also said. “While farmers feed and fuel the economy, they need a strong farm bill that will assist them when the chips are down.”

National FFA Members Attend the Washington Leadership Conference

For over 50 years, thousands of FFA members from across the country have converged on the nation’s capital each summer for the Washington Leadership Conference. It’s a chance to engage with legislators, hone civic engagement and leadership skills, and create community impact projects to take back to their cities and towns. FFA welcomed a total of 1,610 members from 44 states. Members spent the week with agricultural and leadership professionals, facilitators, and FFA staff, who guided them through workshops, seminars, and small group activities. The goal was to have the students leave feeling equipped and empowered to impact their local communities and beyond. Students visited landmarks like the Smithsonian and packaged over 350,000 meals for those in need. The capstone of the conference was developing a Living to Serve Plan. The Plan is a civic engagement project that each participant pledged to implement in their communities when returning home.

New Education Platform Launches for Angus Juniors

A new online learning platform called BEEF Academy was launched this month for members of the National Junior Angus Association. In the future, the platform will even be available to other young people interested in learning more about the beef industry. BEEF Academy was created with support from the Angus Foundation, Ingram Angus, and the American Angus Association. “The Academy blends the missions of these organizations into an online learning experience built especially for young people interested in our industry,” says Jaclyn Boester, the executive director of the Angus Foundation. In the first set of learning modules, junior members learn about the five beef industry segments and how they compete and work together as part of the beef industry. New topics will be added later this year. The BEEF Academy platform is filling a high-quality beef industry education platform that targets young people,” says Caitlyn Brandt, NJAA Director of Events and Junior Activities.  

How Farmers Adjust Spending During Low Commodity Prices

History does repeat itself, especially in agricultural cycles. Rabobank put together a report on how farmers adjust input spending when commodity prices drop. It explores the responsiveness of input volume and price to farm profitability in America, forming a view of how the current downturn will impact the input marketplace through next year. For example, the report says farm machinery is a hard asset that can be maintained, and new purchases can be deferred as needed. That makes machinery the most income-elastic of the major farm input categories. Fertilizer prices are also elastic. Lower fertilizer prices typically shoulder the bulk of changes in expenditures, but farmers can also adjust those volumes as well. Seed spending has increased markedly during the past 20 years as corn revenues increased during the early 2000s. As some seed patents expired, seed production costs are now expected to dictate price, suggesting farmers may see relief ahead.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. new home sales for June will be out at 9:00 a.m. CDT Wednesday, followed by the U.S. Energy Department's weekly energy inventory report at 9:30 a.m. Also Wednesday morning, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on interest rates. As usual, grain traders remain focused on the latest weather forecasts.

Weather

An old and washed-out boundary continues to produce scattered showers from Texas to the Carolinas for Wednesday, a zone that has seen widespread rainfall all week. Some areas of heavy rain will be possible. A small cold front is moving through the Midwest that should produce some limited showers as well. Extreme heat is breaking down in the West, but above-normal temperatures continue to plague that region up through the Canadian Prairies and is leaking through more of the Plains.

Decision on Mexico-U.S. Corn Dispute Expected This Fall

The U.S. made a strong case under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement in the dispute with Mexico over genetically engineered corn. Doug McKalip, chief agricultural negotiator in the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office, spoke during the recent National Corn Growers Association’s Corn Congress in Washington, D.C. “We will not rest on this until we get it done,” McKalip said. “It’s critically important not just for corn growers, but farmers of all kinds. If they can do this with corn, they can do it with anything.” He also said the U.S. cannot allow its trading partners to play “fast and loose” with the science. Both U.S. and Mexican officials were given questions by the panel considering the matter and both have responded. A decision is expected sometime this fall. The NCGA’s Corn Congress meets every summer in the nation’s capital to vote on policy positions, elect new board members, and hear from elected officials.  

Global Poultry Markets Rebounding Despite Challenges

The global poultry market outlook is further improving, driven by accelerated growth in poultry meat consumption and disciplined supply growth in many markets. After four years of highly disruptive conditions, global poultry markets are moving toward more “normal” market conditions. Rabobank says most of the global growth was driven by strong local market conditions rather than trade. This is particularly true in emerging markets in Southeast and Southern Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Lower feed prices have made chicken more affordable, supporting demand recovery. The U.S. and EU are performing well this year, with relatively strong demand, controlled producer growth, and rising prices. The main exceptions to the stronger market environment are China and Japan, where overly aggressive growth rates increased supply and reduced profitability. Brazil had also been facing an oversupply, but recent production cuts are expected to help balance their markets. Global trade is predicted to become more competitive.

U.S. Cattle on Feed Up One Percent

The recent Cattle on Feed Report shows cattle and calves on feed for the U.S. slaughter market for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million on July 1, 2024. The inventory was one percent above July 1, 2023. The inventory included 6.82 million steers and steer calves, up one percent from last year. This group accounted for 60 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.48 million head, up slightly from 2023. Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.56 million head, seven percent below 2023. Net placements were 1.51 million head. During June, placements of cattle and calves weighing under 600 pounds were 365,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 225,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 350,000 head, 800-899 pounds reached 349,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 165,000 head, and 1,000 pounds-plus hit 80,000 head. Fed cattle marketings totaled 1.79 million head, nine percent below 2023.

Organizations Donate Aid to Flooded Areas in Iowa

Three of the nation’s top cooperatives announced they will partner to support the American Red Cross in the aftermath of heavy rain and severe flooding, which devastated parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota. CHS, CoBank, and Land O’ Lakes will together donate $100,000 to aid relief efforts in the impacted region. Overflowing rivers have destroyed homes in the three states, swamped farm fields, and washed away bridges. In Rock Valley, Iowa, residents evacuated by boat and helicopter following a levee collapse that made evacuation by roads impossible. Flooding has been especially devastating in rural communities where the full economic impact due to the loss of crops, livestock, and equipment isn’t known yet. “Our hearts go out to those whose lives and livelihoods have been impacted by the recent flooding,” CoBank said in a statement. “While recovery is long-term, we hope our joint contribution will help ease the burden.”

Converting Dairy Waste to Renewable Natural Gas

Amp Americas, a dairy renewable natural gas (RNG) company has completed a project that converts dairy waste into RNG in Darlington, Wisconsin. The facility, now fully operational at Darlington Ridge Farms, is the latest of Amp Americas 12 operating digesters in Wisconsin, Indiana, Idaho, and Minnesota. The project at Darlington Ridge Farms utilizes continuous stirred tank reactor anaerobic digesters to convert 90,000 gallons of dairy cow waste per day into renewable energy. The project captures methane that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere, purifies it, and then injects it into the Alliant Energy natural gas pipeline. The RNG is used as a clean, carbon-negative transportation fuel, reducing up to 27,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per year. “Our RNG facilities prevent and capture methane from thousands of dairy cows across America,” says Grant Zimmerman, Amp Americas CEO. “Our renewable fuel reduces the cost of sustainably managing dairy waste.”

USGC Touts Corn Sustainability in China

U.S. Grains Council members met with key partners and customers in China to talk about the eco-friendly benefits of U.S. corn and how the Corn Sustainability Assurance Protocol helps importers qualify their products. The Chinese government recently unveiled its corporate sustainability framework. These procedures go into effect in 2027 and were developed in line with the International Sustainability Standards Board. “The Chinese market is signaling it’s looking to align with international sustainability standards, and this creates an opportunity thanks to U.S. corn growers’ long tradition of conservation and environmental stewardship,” says Manuel (man-WELL) Sanchez, USGC director in China. ”This was the perfect time to introduce the CSAP to the Chinese market and leverage the great work U.S. farmers are already doing to enhance U.S. agriculture’s market share in China.” The sustainability standards that China adopts will have ripple effects on the global economy, and USGC wants U.S. farmers to be ready.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. existing sales for June are due out at 9:00 a.m. CDT Tuesday, but it is the latest weather forecasts that grain traders will be most interested in.

Weather

A stalled front across the South continues to be active for Tuesday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms from Texas into the Carolinas. Another front dropping south from Canada will keep showers and thunderstorms going across the Great Lakes as well.

Low Prices Continue Pressure on Farm Income

Farmers are on track to harvest some of their biggest corn and soybean crops ever. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book says the ongoing decline in commodity prices is putting farm income in questionable territory. “Regional Fed banks in Chicago and Minneapolis say the farm income outlook had weakened in recent months,” the Beige Book says. “Agricultural conditions in the Kansas City Fed’s District says farmers faced headwinds from weak crop prices.” The Sixth District of Atlanta said agricultural conditions have improved slightly in recent weeks as cattle and poultry sales remained strong. Farmers in Chicago’s Seventh District have been slow to sell crops from storage and were holding back selling ahead of the fall harvest because of low prices. The Eighth District of St. Louis reported soil conditions have improved relative to the drought conditions during the last growing season. Crop conditions in the 11th District around Dallas broadly improved in most areas. 

Despite Low Demand, Fertilizer Prices Remain High

Fertilizer prices remain higher despite agriculture being past the high-demand spring season. Josh Linville of StoneX told Ag Web Dot Com that multiple global factors are the reason prices have stayed high. Lower European production is the first reason as skyrocketing natural gas prices have cut EU production by 25 percent. Brazil is another reason as high costs have led to a decrease in many of the country’s production plants. China’s restriction on fertilizer exports means the government figured out they can make sure there’s enough for their own people and reduce the domestic price. Restrictions are also coming out of Egypt due to heat and people trying to cool their homes as a result, so natural gas supplies are getting tight. In addition to an export shortage from other countries, the U.S. has also restricted imports from Morrocco, Russia, and China, which Linville says are a big part of the marketplace.

Ag Spray Drone Distributors Form Coalition

A coalition of agricultural spray drone distributors is banding together to form a grassroots industry group. The move comes in response to proposed legislation aimed at banning drones manufactured by Chinese companies. The coalition consists of Agri Spray Drones, Bestway Ag, Drone Nerds, HSE-UAV, Pegasus Robotics, and Rantizo and intends to represent, protect, and advocate for the interests of the agricultural industry in the use of spray drone technology. Recent legislative proposals like H.R. 2864, which passed in the House, seek to ban drones manufactured by Chinese companies due to security concerns. However, the proposals currently being presented and discussed fail to consider other methods to address security concerns while also avoiding the significant impact such bans would have on the agricultural industry. Drones play a vital role in agriculture, including giving options for aerial application, creating jobs in rural America, and are a positive way to support precision and sustainable agriculture.

National FFA Organization Names 2004 American Star Finalists

The National FFA Organization announced the 16 finalists for its 2024 top achievement awards: American Star Farmer, American Star in Agribusiness, American Star in Agricultural Placement, and American Star in Agriscience. The American Star Awards represent the best among thousands of American FFA Degree recipients. The award recognizes FFA members who have developed outstanding agricultural skills and competencies by completing a supervised agricultural experience (SAE) program. A required activity in FFA, an SAE allows members to learn by doing. Members can own and operate an agricultural business, intern at an agricultural business, or conduct an agriculture-based scientific experiment and report the results. Other requirements to achieve the award include demonstrating top management skills, completing key agricultural education, scholastic, and leadership requirements, and earning an American FFA Degree, the organization’s highest level of student achievement. One winner will be announced in each category at the 97th National FFA Convention this fall.

BQ-9000 Program Assures Quality Biofuel Production

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory released its seventh report documenting the quality of biodiesel from the U.S. and Canadian-based producers that participate in the BQ-9000 program. The comprehensive report details the quality of biodiesel based on monthly data collected throughout 2023. The BQ-9000 program, a voluntary quality-control assurance initiative within the biodiesel industry, will continue playing a critical role in ensuring high standards for biodiesel production. The 2023 report features several advancements and a more complete analysis. “The BQ-9000s program’s commitment to quality assurance is evident in the continued improvement and expansion of the parameters we assess,” says Scott Fenwick, technical director at Clean Fuels Alliance America. ‘This year’s report not only reinforces the high standards maintained by biodiesel producers but also provides valuable insights that can drive further achievements in the industry.” The NREL says it remains dedicated to supporting the biodiesel industry through rigorous analysis and disseminating quality data.

Corn Sales for Overseas Delivery Declines

The USDA says sales of corn to overseas buyers declined during the week ending on July 11 while wheat and soybean sales rose. Corn sales for delivery in the 2023-2024 marketing year totaled 437,800 metric tons. That’s down 19 percent from the prior week and 10 percent from the previous four-week average. Japan was the top corn buyer at 191,200 metric tons. Sales for the next marketing year were reported at 485,700 tons. Exports jumped by 26 percent to 1.1 million tons. Soybean sales rose 10 percent week to week to 228,100 metric tons. USDA says that’s down 29 percent from the average. Egypt was the biggest buyer at 92,000 tons. For the 2024-2025 marketing year, sales were reported at 507,000 tons. Wheat sales rose to 578,500 metric tons, more than double the previous week and up one percent from the average. South Korea bought the most at 119,000 tons.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will look over the latest weather forecasts as more corn enters the pollination stage. The presidential election will get more attention this week after President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign this weekend and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. USDA's report of weekly export inspections is at 10 a.m. CDT Monday, followed by the weekly Crop Progress report at 3 p.m.

Weather

Sporadic showers and some thunderstorms will pop up across the Corn Belt on Monday and could be more focused over Minnesota Mondy afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a stalled front from Texas to the Carolinas and Virginia will be more active with widespread showers and thunderstorms developing throughout the day but especially Monday afternoon. Temperatures continue to be mild in most areas, though heat over the west is leaking east of the Rockies in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies.

Farmland Values Stabilizing

Farmland values have stabilized in Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming. A Benchmark Farm Value Trends Report from Farm Credit Service of America and Frontier Farm Credit says benchmark values rose just 0.07 percent. “The combination of higher interest rates and tighter margins for grain producers is having an impact on cropland values,” says Tim Koch, executive vice president for the two associations that operate as a collaboration. “Several years of strong profitability created optimism in the real estate market and helped offset the impact of the Fed’s rate hikes in 2022 and 2023.” While buyers seem willing to compete for limited land, falling grain prices are shifting attention to the more challenging economic environment. Iowa, which is normally on the leading edge of market trends, saw land values decline for the first time in five years. Despite that pullback, Iowa’s real estate values are up 60 percent since 2019.

CoBank: Innovate Products Fuel Dairy Market Growth

While U.S. consumers drink less milk every year, overall dairy sales are on a positive streak. Cheese, butter, and yogurt are fueling category growth, along with new dairy-based products designed to capitalize on convenience, health, and snacking trends. A new CoBank report says the outlook for dairy retail sales remains strong with additional room for growth even as consumer preferences and purchasing behaviors evolve. “The healthy snacking category is a growing megatrend that dairy products can capitalize on with a host of conveniently packaged solutions from low-fat cheeses to specialty yogurts to functional dairy drinks,” says Corey Geiger, lead dairy economist with CoBank. Cheese continues to anchor the dairy category, with annual sales climbing. Butter is enjoying a comeback in the U.S. as per capita consumption has climbed 43 percent in 25 years. Yogurt has moved from being a morning meal to becoming an anytime snack or healthy dessert choice.

Financial Experts Want Support for U.S. Sugar Policy

Five dozen farm lenders and financial experts sent a letter to House and Senate Ag Committee leadership urging Congress to strengthen U.S. sugar policy in the farm bill and oppose efforts to weaken the safety net. “An effective safety net is essential when lenders consider extending operating loans to farmers, given the high level of investments necessary to run a successful sugarbeet or sugarcane operation and the financing necessary for processing those crops into raw sugar,” the letter says. Improvements to U.S. sugar policy will help sustain a “stable financial framework for continued investment by family farmers at the farm and sugar-processing levels,” the letter continues. The letter was signed by CoBank and 59 other lending institutions, Certified Public Accountants, and tax professionals in more than a dozen states. Any efforts to undermine the effectiveness of the no-cost U.S. sugar policy would increase the likelihood of farm operating loan defaults.

USB Sets Forward-Thinking 2025 Budget

The 77 farmer-leaders serving on the United Soybean Board approved $173.8 million for the 2025 fiscal year budget. The budget supports research, promotion, and education investment portfolios selected through the USB Portfolio Development Process. These investments drive demand for U.S. Soy and return value to all U.S. soybean farmers. “With wet conditions in the north and dry conditions in the south, growing soybeans has been a challenge for many farmers across the nation,” says Steve Reinhard, USB chair. “One of the checkoff’s benefits is that farmer-led investments continually focus on building a more resilient soybean to withstand weather conditions, pests, and weed pressure while also prioritizing demand creation.” As Reinhard looks to fiscal year 2025 investments, he’s impressed with the innovative and novel ideas by soybean farmers to not only protect soy production but grow the market across the animal ag sector, biofuels, and product innovations. For information, go to unitedsoybean.org.

EIA: SAF Production Capacity Will Continue to Grow

The Energy Information Administration is predicting the production capacity of sustainable aviation fuel in the U.S. to increase from 2,000 barrels a day to 30,000 barrels a day this year. That’s if all announced capacity additions manage to successfully come online. Developers expect Phillips 66’s Rodeo Renewed Project to produce about 10,000 barrels a day beginning this summer. Diamond Green Diesel’s Port Arthur SAF project is predicted to produce around 15,000 barrels per day by the end of 2024. SAF is an alternative to petroleum jet fuel. It’s produced from agricultural and waste feedstocks and consumed in blends with petroleum jet fuel. About 1.6 million barrels a day of petroleum jet fuel was consumed in the U.S. during 2023, and the EIA predicts jet fuel demand by 2050 to exceed two million barrels a day. At the beginning of 2024, only two plants could produce SAF: one in California and the other in Montana.

Wheat Production Forecast at Eight-Year High

U.S. all-wheat production for 2024-2025 is forecast at 2.008 billion bushels, the largest wheat crop since 2016-2017. Production is up 134 million bushels from the previous month and 11 percent higher than the previous year. Larger production for Hard Red Winter and Hard Red Spring are the major factors driving the year-to-year increase in total wheat production, while smaller increases are seen for White and Durum. Soft Red Winter is down from the previous year’s bumper crop. The total area planted to wheat this year is lower than last year, but improved weather conditions in HRW areas resulted in lower abandonment and higher areas harvested for that class. HRW yields are also up substantially with the improved conditions. The HRS production forecast benefits from favorable weather during crop development and results in record yields that more than offset the effect of smaller areas harvested. Stronger supplies should make U.S. wheat exports more competitive.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Traders are apt to keep watching the latest weather forecasts, while simultaneously ignoring numerous reports of crop damage. USDA's cattle on-feed report for July 1 will be out at 2 p.m. with June placements expected to be 3% to 4% lower than a year ago.

Weather

A front that has settled from Texas to the Carolinas will continue with showers for Friday. A system that has moved into the Northern Plains will bring some areas of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as well. Mild and dry conditions over the Midwest are a welcome sight for many.

Clean Fuels Intends to Sue the EPA Over Delay

Clean Fuels Alliance delivered a formal notice of intent to sue the Environmental Protection Agency for its failure to issue timely 2026 Renewable Fuel Standard RVOs. By statute, EPA is required to finalize volumes 14 months before the start of a compliance year. For 2026, that deadline would come at the end of October 2024. On June 28, the White House Office of Management and Budget released the Spring 2024 Unified Agenda of Regulatory and Deregulatory Actions. The agenda set a timeline for EPA to propose the 2026 RFS volumes by March 2025 and finalize the rule by December 2025. “EPA’s failure to timely issue the 2026 RFS volumes compounds another issue: EPA set the volumes for 2023 through 2025 too low,” Clean Fuels says. Kurt Kovarik of Clean Fuels says, “Stakeholder organizations asked the EPA to ensure it met the deadline for the 2026 rule and get it back on track.”   

Clean Fuel Tax Credits Out of Reach for Many Farmers

Sustainable aviation fuel and clean fuel production tax credits have the potential to benefit farmers while lowering carbon emissions. However, the shortcomings in the provisions could put the benefits out of reach for many U.S. farmers. Four groups, including the American Farm Bureau, American Soybean Association, National Corn Growers Association, and National Farmers Union, sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young urging them to ensure the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z) works for U.S. farmers. “Without clear domestic feedstock requirements in the tax credit, the benefits of this policy are at risk of being diverted from American farmers,” the letter says. “There is no current requirement that feedstocks be grown domestically, which means foreign feedstock producers can take advantage of the credit.” The groups also say this goes against the broader goal of supporting U.S. agriculture and rural communities.

Flash Drought Intensifies in Mid-Atlantic Region

Following weeks of intense summer heat and little rainfall, AccuWeather says a flash drought has developed and intensified in a region stretching from the Carolinas to Pennsylvania. A flash drought is described as the sudden arrival of drought conditions that are set in motion by lower-than-normal rates of precipitation, accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, winds, and solar radiation. “Severe and extreme drought conditions developed in the Carolinas, where the lack of rainfall combined with relentless heat have dried out the area,” says AccuWeather Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. “Drought has expanded across the Southeast, where we could also use some rain.” Unlike long-lasting droughts similar to the ones observed across the western United States in recent years, flash droughts are often short-term in nature and can disappear quickly. The effects of a flash drought are most notable in the top layers of soil and lead to detrimental effects on agriculture and crop yields.

Sheep Industry Center Requests Proposals

The National Sheep Industry Improvement Center Board of Directors is accepting grant proposals designed to help improve the American sheep industry. At the request of the American Sheep Industry Association, the Center was established as part of the 2008 Farm Bill. As part of the 2019 Farm Bill, the Center was awarded funding by USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service to be used for the Sheep Production and Marketing Grant Program. Grant funding can be used on activities designed to strengthen and enhance the production and marketing of sheep and sheep products in the United States. Financial assistance provided by the Center must be used to accomplish one or more of several specific objectives, including strengthening and improving the long-term sustainability of the lamb and wool industry’s infrastructure by increasing the numbers in production. The average grant in the last four years has been approximately $30,000. For more information, go to nsiic.org.

Russian Wheat Harvest Forecast Drops

Farmers in Russia’s breadbasket are battling temperatures over 120 degrees and trying to save a wheat crop hit hard by a heatwave, frosts, and even floods. Rostov, one of Russia’s key wheat-growing regions, accounted for 11 percent of the country’s total grain harvest last year, and ag ministry officials are monitoring it to make more adjustments to an already soft 2024 wheat forecast. The ministry’s most recent estimate says the Russian grain harvest will hit 132 million tons, nine percent below the 145 million in 2023 and 16 percent from a record 158 million in 2022. After a serious heatwave followed frosts in the spring, Rostov expects its grain harvest to drop approximately 38 percent this year to ten million tons. An agronomist says the wheat initially came out of winter in good condition, and the harvest prospects were excellent. Now, they’re only harvesting what’s left after a rough season.

NCBA Looking for Singers to Enter Anthem Contest

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association is looking for the next singing sensation to open CattleCon 2025 in San Antonio, Texas, February 4-6. The 12th annual NCBA National Anthem Contest is accepting entries through October 15 at convention.ncba.org. The contest winner will perform the Star Spangled Banner at the convention’s Opening General Session and receive round-trip airfare to San Antonio, a hotel room for three nights, complimentary convention registration, plus a pair of boots, jeans, and a shirt from Roper or Stetson. Any member of the NCBA, American National CattleWomen, the Cattlemen’s Beef Board, or family members are eligible to participate in the process. Previous NCBA National Anthem Contest winners aren’t eligible. The top four finalists will be chosen by October 21, and videos will be posted to the website, where voting will be open to the public from November 1 through November 15. The winner will be announced on November 18.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report is due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT, the same time as weekly U.S. jobless claims and an update of the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. An index of leading U.S. economic indicators will be out a 9 a.m., followed by the U.S. Energy Department's weekly report of natural gas storage at 9:30 a.m.

Weather

A cold front continues its pursuit southward, settling from Texas into the Carolinas for Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will also develop in the High Plains as well. Temperatures have become much more comfortable behind that front across the Corn Belt, reducing stress for any areas that have missed out on the recent rainfall.

Groups Warn Against Herbicide Tariffs

The National Corn Growers Association joined five other commodity groups in sending a letter to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo on possible herbicide tariffs. The groups are asking the secretary to consider the impacts on farmers as she reviews a petition by ag chemical company Corteva that would place duties on imports of the herbicide 2,4-D. “Restricting imports of 2,4-D will have wide-ranging consequences for farmers,” the letter says. “American farmers cannot solely rely on Corteva, which is the only domestic supplier of 2,4-D, because there’s not enough to meet demand.” The letter also says that if it’s granted, the petition would cause availability shortages and hamper growers’ ability to be successful. “Restricting the availability of 2,4-D will be very harmful at a time when farmers are grappling with rising input costs and low commodity prices,” the letter adds. “Farmers can’t handle additional costs in what’s already a period of tight margins.”

Brazil’s Corn Harvest Drops but Still Second-Largest Ever

Brazil’s farmers are expected to harvest 4.561 billion bushels of corn in the 2023-2024 season, including the country’s first, second, and third crops. Farmdoc Daily says that is 12 percent less than last year’s record harvest. Brazil’s National Supply Company, Conab, says the expected reduction in total corn production is mainly attributed to smaller acreage and lower yields in the second crop that accounts for approximately 75 percent of the nation’s production. Despite weather challenges in a year strongly influenced by El Niño, the anticipated total still will be the second-largest crop Brazil has ever produced. The projected reduction in Brazil’s total corn harvest is a result of two factors: a decrease in planted area caused by low prices and a decline in yields caused by adverse weather in critical growing regions. Conab’s latest update says the total planted area for all crops will fall by 6.3 percent to 51.5 million bushels.

USDA Announces Deadline for Emergency Relief Program Applications

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced the deadline for commodity and specialty crop producers to apply for the Emergency Relief Program for 2022 natural disaster losses is August 14, 2024. The Farm Service Agency began accepting ERP 2022 applications in October 2023. “If natural disasters impacted your farm or ranch in 2022, there’s still time to submit your application for Emergency Relief Program assistance,” says FSA Administrator Zach Ducheneaux. “Don’t delay. Gather up your documents and contact your local office to complete the application process.” Through the Disaster Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act, Congress allocated $3.2 billion in funding to help cover an estimated $10 billion in uncovered crop losses. ERP 2022 covers losses to crops, trees, bushes, and vines due to qualifying calendar-year 2022 natural disaster events like wildfires, hurricanes, floods, derechos, excessive heat, tornadoes, winter storms, freeze (including a polar vortex,) smoke exposure, excessive moisture, qualifying drought, and related conditions.

Oklahoma is State Number 13 with HPAI in Dairy Cattle

Oklahoma is the 13th state to detect bird flu in dairy cattle. The USDA confirmed it even though the infection happened months ago. Reuters says the confirmation shows the outbreak was more widespread than authorities knew after the virus was first found in dairy cattle in late March. Bird flu has been found in over 150 U.S. dairy herds. The cases are part of an outbreak of H5N1 that’s spread globally in wild birds, infecting domestic poultry and different species of mammals. Even though four dairy workers have tested positive, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the risk to the public remains low. An Oklahoma dairy collected the first positive sample in April when it suspected its herd may have been infected. On its website, USDA reported two positive herds in Oklahoma. The Oklahoma Ag Department says the positive sample is from one dairy that has two separate barns.

U.S. Soybean Supply to Rebound in 2024-2025 Marketing Year

The U.S. soybean supply for marketing year 2024-2025 is forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, eight percent higher than the previous marketing year but down 20 million bushels from last month’s forecast. According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service Acreage Report released on June 28, 86.1 million acres of soybeans were planted in the U.S. for MY 2024-2025, three percent more than last year. The yield forecast remains unchanged at 52 bushels per acre. U.S. soybean production is forecast at 4.4 billion bushels for 2024-2025, down 15 million bushels from last month but 270.3 million bushels higher than production in the previous marketing year. With a lower production forecast and unchanged crush and export forecasts, U.S. ending stocks for 2024-2025 are projected at 435 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from last month’s forecast. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024-2025 is down a dime this month to $11.10 per bushel.  

EPA Announces Earlier Protection from Pesticide Drift

The Environmental Protection Agency is putting quicker protections in place for farmworkers, their families, and the general public near where pesticides are applied. EPA will now assess the potential for people to be exposed to a pesticide when it drifts away from where it’s applied earlier in the agency’s review process. This applies to new active ingredient pesticide registrations and new use decisions. This updated process will protect people from pesticide spray drift 15 years sooner in the review process for new pesticides than has historically occurred. “People who live and work near farms can unintentionally be exposed to pesticides, and it’s our job to do as much as possible to prevent that from happening,” says Michael Freedhoff of the EPA. “This new policy ensures that vital public health protections are in place when a pesticide is initially approved so people don’t have to wait years for the protections they need.”

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. housing starts for June will be out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Wednesday, followed by the Federal Reserve's report of industrial production at 8:15 a.m. The U.S. Energy Department's weekly energy inventory report is set for 9:30 a.m. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book will be out at 2 p.m., the same time as USDA's Livestock, Dairy and Poultry outlook.

Weather

A cold front continues to work its way southward across the Central and Southern Plains through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front throughout the day and may cause some heavy rain, especially in the Ozarks. Much milder conditions are filling in behind the front while it remains hot ahead of it.

Lawsuit Filed Against BLM Rule

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and Public Lands Council filed a lawsuit against the Bureau of Land Management’s “Conservation and Landscape Health” rule. The lawsuit, filed in the District Court of Wyoming, seeks to overturn the rule that threatens generations of family ranching operations in the U.S. by undermining the long-held balance of multiple-use management. “NCBA is suing the BLM to stand up for America’s western ranchers and push back on this harmful rule that only serves as a stepping stone to removing livestock grazing from our nation’s public lands,” says NCBA President Mark Eisele (EYES-lee). “Under the Federal Land Policy and Management Act, the BLM is supposed to balance the multiple uses of public lands, including grazing, energy, mining, timber, and recreation.” However, he also says the BLM’s rule upends the system by creating a brand new use for federal lands without Congressional approval and in conflict with federal law.

Study Shows Corn Farming’s Economic Contribution

A new study by the National Corn Growers Association shows American corn growers were responsible for a $152 billion boost to the U.S. economy in 2023. The report looked at the number of ways corn growers help shape the economy, including economic output, contributions to the Gross Domestic Product, tax revenues, labor income, and employment statistics. “The data shows that growers remain deeply rooted in rural America, where they serve as pillars of economic growth,” says NCGA Lead Economist Krista Swanson, who authored the analysis. “They work to foster technological innovation, expand commercial opportunities, advance free trade, build the bioeconomy, and feed a hungry world.” Corn grower production directly contributed $20.7 billion to the gross domestic product and provided $12 billion in labor wages and benefits. The economic impact of corn farming extended across 524 different industry sectors in all 50 states, reinforcing its broad influence on the national economy.

USDA Makes Large Investment in Farm to School Grants

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack says USDA is awarding a record-breaking $14.3 million in Farm to School Grants to 154 projects in 43 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, and Puerto Rico. These investments will help 1.9 million children eat more nutritious foods in school while supporting farmers and producers in their local and regional communities. “Farm to School is a huge win for children, schools, farmers, producers, and communities,” Vilsack says. “When schools have access to fresh, local food options with homegrown flavor, they can serve delicious, healthy dishes that kids are excited to eat while also supporting the local economy.” He also says the grants continue USDA’s work to address both food and nutrition insecurity, ensuring that not only are U.S. kids getting fed, but they’re getting fed well. Over 67,000 schools participate in Farm to School, and more information is available on the Farm to School website. 

Summer Lambventures is Bigger than Ever

The American Lamb Board recruited outstanding hosts from around the country to throw their best lamb-themed parties, complete with mouth-watering recipes and stunning photos. Nine hosts were chosen from over 100 applicants to host summer parties for ten friends in June. After nearly 100 partygoers experienced the dishes firsthand, consumers are now going to the AmericanLamb.com website to vote for their favorites and get entered into a drawing for a number of prizes. While the party host with the most votes wins the grand prize, a $1,000 Dream Culinary Prize Pack based on their party personality, consumers can also win themed gift cards just for voting. Voters can discover the hosts and their featured dishes in each category or visit the AmericanLamb.com website to view the full menus. Party themes include the “Patio Party Planners,” “Fit Foodies,” and “Outdoor Adventures.” Consumers can continue to vote for their favorites through August 15.

Clean Fuels Supports Letter on Higher RFS Volumes

A bipartisan group of 37 House members sent a letter to EPA Administrator Michael Regan encouraging him to support biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuel volumes that fully account for availability and production capacity. Clean Fuels thanked all the Representatives who led the way and signed off on the letter. “Producing advanced biofuels in the U.S. promotes economic opportunities for communities across the country and increases market access for our nation’s farmers,” the letter says. “A strong RFS and available homegrown agricultural feedstocks are crucial to meeting the nation’s goal for new advanced biofuels for sustainable aviation (SAF), maritime, rail, home heating, and off-road heavy-duty markets.” Kurt Kovarik of Clean Fuels appreciates the bipartisan effort to urge EPA to meet statutory deadlines for the RFS. “Increased production and market space for advanced biofuels has always been the RFS program goal,” he says. “EPA needs to get the program back on track.”

Survey Shows Top Five Majors at Ag Colleges

Picking out a college major can be a daunting task. Colleges across the Midwest, including the University of Minnesota and South Dakota State University, were surveyed to see which majors had the best graduation and job placement rates. If you are a college student who doesn’t know what major to pick, here are five ag majors found to be in demand. The first is animal science/veterinary science. Careers in animal science include more than being a veterinarian. Another is Ag Business and economics. University of Missouri data says agribusiness management students have an 88 percent graduation rate and 100 percent career success rate. Crop science, while it can get called different names, produces plant specialists of all kinds. General agriculture is an option to explore different ag education sectors. Last is biochemistry, which may not be top of mind in ag education, but it is in many ag and natural resources programs.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Traders have been hitting the short side of grains pretty heavy lately and will be watching for rains expected across the Eastern Corn Belt this week. U.S. retail sales for June are due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Tuesday.

Weather

A cold front will continue to work south across the Central U.S. Tuesday, providing scattered showers and storms from the Central Plains into the eastern Midwest. Southern areas of the Corn Belt could also see locally heavy rainfall with the storms.

July WASDE Raises Corn Production, Lowers Corn Stocks

The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates say the 2024-2025 corn outlook calls for larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn production is forecast up by 240 million bushels on greater planted and harvested area from the June Acreage Report. Yield is unchanged at 181 bushels an acre, and ending stocks are down by five million bushels. The season-average farm price is down ten cents to $4.30 a bushel. Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, 15 million lower on less harvested area. The yield forecast is unchanged at 52 bushels, and ending stocks are down 20 million bushels from June. The season-average soybean price is down a dime to $11.10. The wheat outlook is for larger supplies, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. Ending stocks are predicted at 856 million bushels, the highest in five years. The season-average price is down 80 cents at $5.70.

Ag Spending Bills Advance in Both Chambers

The Senate Appropriations Committee approved the Agriculture-FDA spending bill 27-0 last week. Farm Policy News says both chambers of Congress have now approved their Fiscal Year 2025 Ag-FDA funding bills out of the full committees. The bill was approved after a minimal debate in the Senate, with Senators quickly approving the bill and the accompanying manager’s amendment. The House Appropriations Committee moved a spending bill forward that will cut the Agriculture Department’s budget by $308 million if it passes in its current form. The bill would allocate $22 billion for USDA. The proposal was approved 29-26 by House Appropriations Committee members and is slated for consideration on the House floor during the week of July 22. The bill sets aside $25.9 billion for USDA, FDA, and related agencies like the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Also, the Senate bill rejects the House bill’s deep cut in the Food for Peace Program.

Beef Checkoff Returns Over $13 for Every $1 Spent

An independent analysis of the Beef Checkoff thoroughly assessed the effectiveness and additional financial benefits produced by the program’s demand-driving activities. The study, conducted by Dr. Harry Kaiser of Cornell University, had objectives to measure, including whether national Beef Checkoff demand-driving activities increased demand for beef products. The study also wanted to determine the combined benefits of those activities in terms of their incremental financial impact on beef producers and importers. The Beef Checkoff’s Evaluation Committee was very pleased with the results of the latest study and said the statistics uncovered tell them that the committee is achieving the goal of providing exporters and importers with an excellent return on investment. The study calculated the ROI at $13.41 for every dollar spent. Without the Beef Checkoff, the study shows total domestic beef demand would have been 2.4 billion pounds lower per year than the actual results, and prices would have been 7.8 percent lower.

USDA Terminates Cranberry Marketing Order

The USDA is terminating Marketing Order Number 929, which regulates the handling of cranberries grown in several states, including Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, Massachusetts, and several others. In October 2023, USDA suspended the Cranberry Marketing Committee’s authority to collect assessments and reports from handlers after a continuance referendum failed to show producer support. A notice with the 60-day public comment period on the proposed termination was published in the Federal Register in 2023. During the comment period, the Agricultural Marketing Service received only five comments. After considering the comments, it was determined that the termination of the order was appropriate. USDA informed Congress of the termination in April 2024 in compliance with the requirement to notify Congress at least 60 days before terminating a federal market order. The final rule for this action with public comment analysis was published in the Federal Register on July 12, 2024. More information is available at ams.usda.gov.

Fewer Farmers are Responding to NASS Surveys

The number of farmers responding to surveys from the National Agricultural Statistics Service has dropped in recent years. Ag Web Dot Com looked into response rates after a new study from the American Statistical Association warned the reliability of U.S. economic data is at risk for several reasons. In the early 1990s, response rates for NASS crop surveys were 80 to 85 percent. By the late 2010s, response rates had fallen below 60 percent in some cases. For a more specific example, the 2017 Census of Agriculture had a response rate of over 71 percent, while the 2022 Census had a response rate of 61 percent. Factors affecting response rates include concerns about data privacy and constraints from farmers. An increasing number of people requesting information from farmers discourages some respondents. Refusal rates are rising as well. Lance Honig of NASS says, “It’s mostly an inability to reach people that’s increasing.”

HPAI Hits Minnesota Turkey Flocks

The USDA is confirming an outbreak of avian flu affecting two Minnesota turkey flocks. The agency’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service confirmed cases in Kandiyohi (can-dee-YO-hi) and Renville counties. The case in Renville County affected more than 15,000 breeder hens. The cases in Kandiyohi County affect nearly 22,000 hens and about 4,300 toms. These are the first cases found in either county in 2024. Minnesota has now seen 17 commercial poultry flocks struck by the virus in 2024. No state has had more flocks struck by HPAI during the 2022 through 2024 outbreak. In 2022, the virus appeared in 81 flocks, and in 2023, it appeared in 34 flocks. The ongoing bird flu outbreak is the largest animal disease event in U.S. history, killing 58.7 million birds across 47 states since January 2022. APHIS has spent at least $1.3 billion in response to bird flu and will eventually reach $2 billion.

Top 5 Things to Watch - Storms and Crop Conditions, Cattle Placements Lead Coverage

1. Crop reports become important: With each week, the Monday USDA NASS Crop Progress reports give the world increasing insight into how the 2024 corn, soybean and other crops are shaping up. There will be careful attention to crop conditions following the mixed bag of flash droughts and flash floods the past several weeks.

2. Post-Beryl storms: After Hurricane Beryl spun up storms from Texas to New England, some areas will be drier this week. But there are still chances of showers and storms across the Midwest, while a front from the Rockies increases the chance of storms in the Northern and Central Plains. Most areas will see an early week warmup followed by somewhat cooler conditions as the front moves in.

3. Market signals: Last week's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report brought some slightly bullish news, actually less bearish than expected. We'll watch how world news, including reaction to the weekend assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, influences commodity and equity markets.

4. Dairy herd safety: We're continuing to track the spread of H5N1 avian influenza on dairy cattle, including the latest on biosecurity efforts in the dairy industry.

5. Economic reports to watch: Monday, reports start at 7:30 a.m. with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. At 10 a.m. we'll have latest Grain Inspections reports, followed at 11 a.m. with the ERS Feed Grains Database update. At 2 p.m., ERS Season Average Prices and Wheat Data hits, followed by the 3 p.m. USDA NASS Crop Progress report. We'll have analysis of the latest crop conditions as well. Tuesday reports also start at 7:30 a.m. with a host of updates, including U.S. Retail Sales, Import Price Index, and Imports and Exports numbers. At 9 a.m. there's the Business Inventories and Home Builder Confidence Index. At 11 a.m. is the ERS Oil Crops Outlook. At 2 p.m. the ERS Feed and Wheat Outlooks are out. On Wednesday we'll see Housing Starts and Building Permits reports at 7:30 a.m., with Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization updates at 8:15 a.m. At 9:30 a.m. EIA's weekly petroleum status report including ethanol is out, and at 2 p.m. we'll see Broiler Hatchery numbers. The early reports continue Thursday with the 7:30 a.m. Grain Export sales and Initial Jobless Claims numbers. At 9 a.m., we'll await the latest Leading Economic Indicators and at 10:30 a.m. we'll see the Weekly Economic Index. Friday we'll have the CFTC Commitment of Traders report (COT) at 2:30 p.m., with the latest USDA Cattle on Feed numbers at 3 p.m., including our analysis on those numbers.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will keep an eye on the latest weather forecasts and may have thought a little more about Friday's new supply and demand estimates from USDA, especially regarding corn. USDA's report of weekly export inspections is at 10 a.m. CDT Monday, followed by the weekly Crop Progress report at 3 p.m.

Weather

Much of the Corn Belt will see chances for scattered showers and storms Monday. A storm system across Iowa, southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana could produce damaging straight-line winds later in the day or Monday night. Large hail and a few isolated tornadoes may also accompany the storms.

Grain Prices Hit Lowest Level Since COVID

Grain prices have fallen to their lowest level since COVID-19. A Bloomberg report extended this year’s losses to 17 percent, with grains trading at the lowest point since 2020. It’s a sharp reversal from the post-COVID rally that sent grain prices more than doubling through 2022. University of Illinois Ag Economist Scott Irwin says the falling grain prices could mean significant financial losses for producing corn and soybeans this year. “Regardless of the fine details of crop insurance and government payments, alarm bells should be going off about the scale of potential corn and soybean losses for the 2024 crop in the Corn Belt,” Irwin says. “Right now, the losses look punishing due to the combination of rising expenses in recent years and the significant drop in corn and soybean prices.” He also says corn losses could surpass $200 per acre, and soybean losses could easily reach $98 per acre.

Tractor and Combine Sales Drop in June

U.S. sales of ag tractors and combines in June fell below the reported sales from the same month in 2023. New Data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers says June sales of two-wheel drive tractors dropped 16 percent compared to 2023, while four-wheel drive tractors fell 1.3 percent in the same timeframe. Combine sales declined as well, finishing the month 31 percent below June 2023. “June’s sales of ag tractors and combines follow a May that also showed a sales slowdown,” says AEM Senior Vice President Curt Blades. “This softness in the market follows a robust five years of sales.” He also says the challenges facing the subcompact tractor market illustrate why the passage of a strong farm bill is needed to lift rural America and U.S. farmers. In Canada, sales of four-wheel drive tractors were a bright spot, rising 10 percent in June compared to 2023. Combine sales rose 13 percent.

CA Drivers Could Save $2.7 Billion Annually With E15

A new study finds California drivers could save up to 20 cents per gallon if the state allowed gas stations to sell E15 fuel. California is the only state that doesn’t allow fuel made of 15 percent ethanol and 85 percent gasoline. The potential savings for California drivers could reach $2.7 billion annually. “Consumers have the potential to gain significantly from the introduction and purchase of E15,” the study says. “In particular, our estimates suggest an approximately 20 cents per gallon discount for E15 compared with E10 after adjusting for energy content.” The study authors also highlighted the benefit of E15’s lower carbon emissions. “In California, price savings for lower GHG intensity fuels are larger, likely due to California-specific policies incentivizing low carbon fuels,” the study concludes. The study, sponsored by the Renewable Fuels Association, says state regulators are considering the approval of E15 after testing showed it offers important emissions benefits.

EPA Could Miss the 2026 RFS Volume Deadline

The Environmental Protection Agency is required by statute to finalize 2026 Renewable Fuel Standard volumes by October 31, 2024. However, reports say those volumes for 2026 and beyond could be delayed until 2025. If a unified agenda released by the White House comes to pass, it could mean December 2025 will be the finalization date. Great American Crop Insurance News says the EPA plans to release its RFS proposal by March 2025, with a rule being finalized by the end of next year. Reports say the unified agenda sets deadlines for all regulatory actions but isn’t necessarily final. Under the latest rule set that was finalized in June, the EPA set the RFS volumes only through 2025. The rule was said by those in the industry to have brought some market certainty for the biofuels industry. The unified agenda could mean the next RFS volumes will be set by a new administration.

NCBA Concludes Summer Business Meeting

National Cattlemen’s Beef Association members wrapped up the summer business meeting in San Diego, California. Cattle producers discussed many of the top issues facing the cattle industry, including risk management, taxes, and business regulation. “Our grassroots members are the NCBA’s backbone,” says NCBA President Mark Eisele (EYES-lee). “The policies passed at the meeting will direct our association’s advocacy efforts in Washington to strengthen our industry’s profitability, reduce the government’s crippling regulations, and safeguard our way of life for the future.” The new policies direct the association to improve disaster relief and risk management programs, advocate for reduced capital gains tax, and oppose burdensome business registration and reporting requirements like the Corporate Transparency Act. Several existing policies were also renewed or amended. Members also discussed the implementation of USDA’s new animal disease traceability rule that will take effect in November. The Summer Business Meeting is one of two to set policy for NCBA.

Angus Foundation Golf Tourney Raises Over $15,000

After a three-hour rain delay, 83 golfers enjoyed a fun day of competition at the Angus Foundation Gold Tournament hosted at the Pleasant View Golf Course in Middleton, Wisconsin. The event is held in conjunction with the National Junior Angus Show, the National Junior Angus Association’s largest youth event of the year. “It’s hard to bargain with Mother Nature, but after the morning rain showers, the day was a huge success,” says Jimmy Stickley, Angus Foundation donor coordinator. “The teams and the players that stuck it out had a blast on and off the course, and we can’t thank everyone enough for sticking with us in the morning and seeing the day through.” The tournament welcomed 21 teams and raised more than $15,700 to support the Foundation’s commitment to education, youth, and research. First established in 1980, the Angus Foundation has distributed more than $4.2 million in youth scholarships since 1998.

Friday Watch List

Markets

The U.S. Labor Department will report on producer prices in June at 7:30 a.m. CDT Friday, followed by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for July at 9 a.m. USDA's WASDE and Crop Production reports will be released at 11 a.m., followed by DTN's WASDE webinar at 12:30 p.m. Friday is also the last trading day for July grain and oilseed contracts.

Weather

Later Friday afternoon and into the evening, isolated to scattered storms will form across the Dakotas and Central Plains. Some storms may become severe and lead to damaging winds and hail. 

Ag Trade Deficit Jumps in Fiscal Year Through May

The agricultural trade deficit, or the value of exports from the U.S. versus imports into the country, increased in the first eight months of the fiscal year. USDA data says the deficit was at $15.2 billion thus far in the 2023-2024 marketing year that runs through September 30. That compares with a deficit of $3.89 billion during the same period last year. From October 1, 2023, through the end of May, exporters shipped $122.3 billion worth of agricultural products. At the same time, the agency report says importers brought in $137.6 billion in goods. The ag trade deficit in the 2023 fiscal year that ended on September 30 totaled a record $17.2 billion. The agency says that compared with a surplus of $1.92 billion a year earlier. Exporters shipped $13.7 billion worth of agricultural products in May while importing $18 billion, for a deficit of $4.27 billion for the month.