State of the Corn Economy

In the third quarter of 2023, the corn sector wrapped up the 2022-2023 marketing year and entered the 2023-204 marketing year. Geopolitical tensions and international dynamics continue to be factors in the market. Looking ahead, a National Corn Growers Association webinar says the war in Israel could have larger implications for corn if it spreads throughout the Middle East. On the macroeconomic side, interest rates continue to rise while the economy remains strong. That makes it a challenge to forecast an economic landing, especially considering geopolitical factors. Despite widespread drought across the Corn Belt during the growing season, the U.S. is positioned to produce one of the three largest corn crops on record. That positions the U.S. to have enough grain needed to fulfill demand. Even with the strong competition in the world market, the outlook for demand from ethanol, feed, and exports is more positive than it was last year.  

Organic Produce Sales and Volume Up Two Percent

For the second quarter in a row, organic fresh produce grew slightly in year-over-year sales and volume in the third quarter of 2023. That’s according to a report issued by the Organic Produce Network. Overall, organic fresh produce dollar sales and volume rose by two percent and 1.9 percent, respectively, for Q3 in 2023 compared to the same time last year. “The growth in organic produce volume slightly outpacing conventional produce reflects the continued consumer interest in healthier and sustainable food choices,” says Tom Barnes, CEO of Category Partners. In the third quarter, 15 of the top 20 organic fresh produce categories posted increases in dollar sales compared to the same period last year. The organic berry category, including strawberries, blueberries, raspberries, and blackberries, led overall dollar sales with $461 million for the quarter, a 6.9 percent increase. Organic broccoli saw the largest sales jump at 14 percent above last year.

USGC Building Markets in Africa

East Africa holds significant long-term growth potential for U.S. feed grains. Earlier this month, the U.S. Grains Council sent staff and members to the region as part of an engagement mission to discuss upcoming programming, current partnerships, and opportunities for American feed grains. The Council has been active in East Africa for over a decade, working to promote the development of a commercial poultry and feed industry in the region to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population. The USDA estimates by 2032 that Africa and the Middle East will account for 43 percent of the additional growth in world coarse grain imports. The team kicked off the trip by attending the tenth African Grain Trade Summit in Uganda. The conference brought together business leaders, policymakers, and other stakeholders from Africa to talk through issues and emerging trends in the grain sector. Other stops included Kenya and Tanzania’s Poultry Show.

Trends in Agricultural Land Ownership

The landscape of land ownership has evolved over the past 25 years as a generational transfer of ownership takes place. A Farmers National Company report says a strong ag economy has driven the market higher for several years. Most landowners have seen steady increases in value during the past 25 years, but especially within the past three years. FNC says one market dynamic farmers can always count on is change. Politics, world events, and other factors will continue driving change in the agriculture economy and land values over the next 25 years. Generational transfer of land ownership will continue bringing changes to who owns the land. One constant in the market is the fact that they aren’t making more land available. FNC says the U.S. loses an average of 1.8 million acres of farmland every year, which will only add to the limited supply available and more change in the marketplace.

Deere Foundation Announces Anti-Hunger Grants

The John Deere Foundation announced a series of grants totaling $19 million aimed at eliminating hunger by increasing access to food, helping resource-constrained farmers, and supporting global food systems. The grants go to the World Food Program USA, the One Acre Fund, and the Nature Conservancy. “We firmly believe that the world’s farmers deserve our collective support and advocacy if our goal is to realize the promise of the ‘Green Revolution,’” says Josh Jepsen, senior vice president and chief financial officer at Deere. The World Food Program received $5 million to strengthen the capacity of the United Nations World Food Program, the world’s largest humanitarian organization. One Acre Fund was awarded $7.5 million to accelerate its work to ensure every family farm has the knowledge and means to be successful. The Nature Conservancy received $6.5 million to promote natural climate solutions like forest restoration and conservation in key regions around the world.

Corn and Soybean Export Sales Surge

USDA says corn sales to overseas buyers surged, and soybean sales hit a marketing-year high in the seven days ending on October 19. Corn export sales totaled 1.35 million metric tons, up 53 percent over the previous week and 22 percent from the prior four-week average. An agency report says Mexico was a big buyer of U.S. corn, purchasing 762,400 metric tons, followed by Colombia and Japan. Exports during the week were 483,700 tons, down six percent week-to-week and the lowest since the marketing year began on September 1. Soybean sales jumped to 1.38 million metric tons during the week, one percent above the previous week and 43 percent over the four-week average. That’s also the largest amount since the marketing year began. China was the largest buyer at 1.17 million tons. Soybean exports hit a marketing-year high at 2.38 million tons. Wheat sales dropped 43 percent from the prior week.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Keeping with the Halloween theme on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will begin a two-day meeting and may spook markets with a quarter-percent rate hike on Wednesday, but general expectations are for no change this time around. At 7:30 a.m. CDT Tuesday, the U.S. Labor Department will release its employment cost index for the third quarter, followed by a report of U.S. consumer confidence at 9 a.m.

Weather

Very cold temperatures continue to fill in east of the Rockies on Tuesday, producing widespread frosts and freezes for all but the Southeast. A small system is moving through the Midwest, producing areas of light, but briefly intense snow.

Biden, Cabinet, Heading to Rural America

President Joe Biden will travel to Minnesota to lead his Administration's Investing in Rural America Event Series. Over the course of two weeks, President Biden, Cabinet members, and Senior Administration Officials will barnstorm across the country. The events will promote investments in climate-smart agriculture, bringing new revenue to farms, increased economic development in rural towns and communities and more opportunity throughout the country, according to the White House. During the Event Series, President Biden and leaders across the Administration will travel to rural communities across the country. This includes rural communities leveraging Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding to support critical infrastructure such as high-speed internet, safe roads and bridges, modern wastewater systems, clean drinking water, and reliable and affordable electricity. Beyond the Minnesota visit with Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, Vilsack will also speak at the National FFA convention this week in Indianapolis. Other administration officials will travel to Wisconsin, Michigan, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Washington State, Oregon and Georgia, among other states.

September Milk Production Down Slightly

USDA’s latest Milk Production report shows production in the 24 major states during September totaled 17.5 billion pounds, down slightly from September 2022. August revised production, at 18.1 billion pounds, was down 0.7 percent from August 2022. The August revision represented a decrease of 73 million pounds or 0.4 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 1,960 pounds for September, three pounds above September 2022. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.91 million head, 16,000 head less than September 2022, and 2,000 head less than August 2023. Milk production in the United States during the July - September quarter totaled 56.1 billion pounds, down 0.7 percent from the July - September quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the United States during the quarter was 9.38 million head, 41,000 head less than the April - June quarter, and 33,000 head less than the same period last year.

$3 Million Available for Producers Impacted by 2022 Natural Disasters

The Department of Agriculture will provide more than $3 billion to commodity and specialty crop producers impacted by natural disasters in 2022. Eligible impacted producers can apply for financial assistance through the Emergency Relief Program 2022. The program will help offset the financial impacts of crop yield and value losses from qualifying disasters in 2022. Farm Service Agency Administrator Zach Ducheneaux (DOO-sheh-know) says, “2022 was another year of weather-related challenges — for some, the third consecutive year or more in a row.” ERP 2022 covers losses to crops, trees, bushes and vines due to qualifying, calendar year 2022 natural disaster events, including wildfires, hurricanes, floods, derechos, excessive heat, tornadoes, winter storms, freeze –including a polar vortex, smoke exposure, excessive moisture, qualifying drought and related conditions. Producers can apply for ERP 2022 starting October 31, (today). The application deadline has not yet been determined and will be announced at a later date.

Branstad, Westman to Receive USMEF Awards

Terry Branstad, former U.S. ambassador to China and longtime governor of Iowa, has been selected to receive the U.S. Meat Export Federation's Michael J. Mansfield Award. USMEF established this award in recognition of the U.S. Senate majority leader and ambassador to Japan, whose five decades of government service advanced U.S. trade relations throughout the world. Bill Westman will receive the USMEF Distinguished Service Award. This award honors outstanding figures in the red meat industry who exemplify the exceptional, individual dedication responsible for the federation's success. Westman had a 29-year career with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, served as senior vice president of international affairs for the North American Meat Institute and is now president of William Westman and Associates LLC, a boutique consulting firm specializing in agricultural trade policy, export market development, and strategic planning. The awards will be presented November 9, at the USMEF Strategic Planning Conference in New Orleans.

Syngenta Group Recognized as Top Agriculture Employer

Syngenta Group was again recognized as one of the globe's top five leading employers in the 2023 Science Careers Top Employers Survey. Syngenta Group employs 59,000 people across more than 100 countries and works towards the challenging goal of feeding the eight billion people on Earth. A Syngenta spokesperson says, "We are excited that Syngenta Group is again being named as the #1 agricultural employer." Recently, Syngenta Seeds held a grand opening for its R&D Innovation Center in Malta, Illinois, which joins a connected, modern ecosystem of more than 150 Syngenta R&D and production sites worldwide and exemplifies the company's $1.48 billion USD annual investment globally. Syngenta Group, registered in Shanghai, China and with its management headquarters in Switzerland, includes four business units – Syngenta Crop Protection, headquartered in Switzerland, Syngenta Seeds, headquartered in the United States, ADAMA headquartered in Israel, and Syngenta Group China.

Weekly Gas and Diesel Prices Fall Again

The nation's average gasoline price fell 5.3 cents last week to $3.45 per gallon, according to GasBuddy. The national average is down 36.3 cents from a month ago and 27.4 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average diesel price fell 3.4 cents last week and is $4.43 per gallon—86 cents lower than one year ago. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan says, "The West Coast has been home to some of the largest declines, with California seeing an impressive 80-cent drop in the last four weeks, dispelling the myth that prices don't fall as fast as they go up." De Haan says the national average gas price could drop another 10-20 cents in the weeks ahead. However, any jolt in the Middle East still holds the potential to disrupt current trends, according to De Haan. Oil markets have struggled to hold onto any momentum in recent weeks, and demand declined one percent last week.

Top 5 Things to Watch - More Wheat Winners, Weather From North to South

1. Cold hits Northern harvest: With some areas of North America already seeing snow and frigid conditions, crop harvest in those areas gets trickier. We will examine the results of weather that turn combines into ersatz snowblowers. Mike and Chandra Langseth, one of our View From the Cab families, have already been preparing for the challenge. 

2. South American crop conditions: El Nino usually means drier weather for much of Brazil. But "drier" in an area that normally receives too much rainfall this time of year may not be as bad for the crop as one thinks. We're watching how much conditions will influence the current crop and prospects for the safrina (second-crop) corn.

3. Fertilizers and wars: We've written quite a bit in the past about how the war in the Black Sea affects fertilizer shipments out of Russia and other areas. As it happens, Israel is a fairly important supplier of phosphates. We'll be keeping an eye on all those outlying influences, as well as our usual reporting on fertilizer prices, found in our DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends column. DTN subscribers can see even more detailed price information in their Fuels and Fertilizers or Fertilizers segments, depending on their specific product.

4. More wheat winners: We'll continue to feature the winners in the National Wheat Foundation 2023 contest. Now in its eighth year, the NWF's National Wheat Yield Contest is designed to encourage wheat growers to strive for high yield, quality and profit while trying new and innovative management strategies. DTN/Progressive Farmer is the official media outlet of the competition. Contest partners include: John Deere, WestBred, BASF, U.S. Wheat Associates, Croplan, Eastman, The McGregor Companies, AgriMaxx, Ardent Mills, BushelFarm, Dyna-Gro, GrainSense, Limagrain Cereal Seeds, Mennel, North Carolina Small Grain Growers Association, Ohio Corn&Wheat, PlainsGold, UniSouth Genetics, UPL, Grain Craft, Grow Pro, Kansas Wheat, Michigan Wheat, Miller Milling, North Dakota Mill, and Northern Crops Institute.

5. Economic reports to watch: (All times CDT) Monday -- USDA's weekly grain export inspections is set for 10 a.m., followed by Crop Progress at 3 p.m. Tuesday -- Happy Halloween! The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting that may spook markets with a quarter-percent rate hike on Wednesday. The U.S. Labor Department releases its employment cost index for the third quarter at 7:30 a.m., followed by the U.S. consumer confidence report at 9 a.m. Wednesday -- We'll check manufacturing indices from around the world, with the U.S. index due out at 9 a.m. The U.S. Energy Department's weekly report of energy inventories follows at 9:30 a.m. At 1 p.m., the Federal Reserve announces its decision on interest rates. At 2 p.m., NASS releases its monthly report on Fats and Oils. Thursday -- USDA releases its weekly export sales report at 7:30 a.m., the same time as U.S. weekly jobless claims, a report on third-quarter U.S. productivity and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor. U.S. factory orders for September will be out at 9 a.m., followed by the U.S. Energy Department's weekly report of natural gas storage at 9:30 a.m. Friday -- We wrap up the week with the U.S. Labor Department nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for October, hitting at 7:30 a.m.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will catch up on the latest news from Israel and Ukraine, as well as the latest weather forecasts. USDA's weekly grain export inspections report is set for 10 a.m. CDT, followed by Crop Progress at 3 p.m. when USDA will post its first winter wheat crop ratings for the new season.

Weather

A strong cold front moved through most of the Plains and Midwest over the weekend, spreading areas of heavy rain and some snow. The front will continue into the Southeast Monday with weakening rain showers. Very cold air filtering in behind the front will cause widespread frosts and freezes for the bulk of the country by midweek. A disturbance following behind the front will bring light snows to the Midwest tonight and Tuesday.

Iowa Delegation Wants Reduction on Fertilizer Duties

Iowa Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst are calling on the Department of Commerce to lower the countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizers from Morocco. The push comes from the Court of International Trade’s recent remand of DOC’s subsidy calculation. “We ask that Commerce carefully consider and follow the Court’s decision in Commerce’s recalculation of the subsidy amount, both in its final determination in the investigation and its administrative review,” the Iowa delegation said in a letter. “Reducing the subsidy rate would provide welcome relief for U.S. farm suppliers and their customers, who are America’s family farmers.” Grassley and his colleagues cited promising preliminary findings from the DOC on potentially reducing the subsidy rate by about 5.5 percent. Since the Biden administration boosted duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers, their supply across the U.S. has dropped, placing an undue financial burden on farmers. The move drove already high input costs up even further.

Rabobank: Global Fertilizer Market Set to Recover

A recent report from Rabobank says the outlook for global fertilizer markets is positive in the coming years. However, there are some challenges and potential risks to monitor. The global fertilizer market is recovering, with an estimated increase in usage of around three percent this year after a seven percent drop in 2022 because of significant market complications. The Rabobank Affordability Index shows a positive outlook for fertilizer purchasing in 2024, with an expected increase of almost five percent next year. The Farm Input Division at Rabobank says nitrogen growth grew two percent this year, phosphate 3.9 percent, and potash was up five percent. There is a potential impact from the Israel-Hamas War as Israel is a sizable supplier of phosphate and potash. Israel accounts for about three percent of the world’s phosphate exports and eight percent of the global potash supply. Currently, there is sufficient availability and alternative supply sources.

Farm Groups Applaud More OFF Act Sponsors

Farm groups like Competitive Markets Action, the Organization for Competitive Markets, R-CALF USA, and others applauded seven new sponsors of the Opportunities for Fairness in Farming Act. The groups say the OFF Act would restore accountability and transparency to agricultural checkoff programs. In total, the OFF Act now has more bipartisan support than in any previous Congress, including 15 co-sponsors in the House and six in the Senate. “The OFF Act is backed by more than 20,000 American family farmers who are sick and tired of seeing their own checkoff dollars put farmers out of business,” says Representative Nancy Mace (R-SC). The groups say recent debate over the 2024 Ag Appropriations Bill has increased interest in oversight of the 22 government-mandated checkoff programs. They have long been plagued by accusations of corruption and misuse of funds. They also say the new bill sponsors show that momentum is rising for their reform.

Alltech Survey Finds Optimism Regarding Sustainable Food System

Agri-food leaders around the world believe the industry can work together to create a better, more sustainable food system. That’s according to the Alltech Sustainability Insights report. “Our goal was to listen to the voices of our industry and its stakeholders and develop a robust, future-facing program of insights that are relevant, ambitious, and genuinely impactful,” says Tara McCarthy, global vice president of EST at Alltech. Some of the findings include four out of five respondents agreeing that climate change will make food production more difficult, but perspectives differ across regions. Most respondents agree that regulation is putting pressure on all areas of the supply chain. “Our industry is navigating extraordinary times, but the opportunities for positive impact are even more unprecedented,” says Dr. Mark Lyons, president and CEO of Alltech. “Imagine the possibilities of working toward shared goals of providing nutrition for all, revitalizing economies, and replenishing our natural resources.”

NCC Elects New Officers

The National Chicken Council has installed the four officers that will guide the organization through 2024. The installation took place at NCC’s 68th Annual Conference in Washington, D.C. Randy Day, a retired CEO and special adviser to the Perdue Farms Board of Directors, will serve as the 2023-2024 Chairman. Randy led Perdue’s senior leadership team before retiring as CEO after 43 years. He began a career with Perdue Farms in 1980, holding various positions of increasing responsibility in the company’s two operating divisions. Peco Foods Chief Operations Officer Bill Griffith will serve as Vice Chairman, bringing more than 25 years of management experience in the food industry. David Jackson, COO of Simmons Foods, is the NCC Secretary-Treasurer. Mike Brown was also elected to his 13th term as NCC President. “I look forward to working with the new officers to continue advancing the industry’s interests and achieve our shared goals,” Brown says.

Ethanol Production Trending Higher

The Energy Information Administration reports that ethanol production rose to its highest level in two months, and inventories rose during the seven days ending on October 20. Ethanol production increased to an average of 1.04 million barrels a day. That’s up from 1.03 million the previous week and the highest level since August 18. In the Midwest, output narrowly rose to 987,000 barrels a day from 985,000 the previous week. That’s also the highest in the Midwest since mid-August. East Coast production rose from 10,000 to 12,000 barrels a day, while West Coast output improved from 9,000 the prior week to 10,000 barrels a day. Gulf Coast production was unchanged at 17,000 barrels a day, while the Rocky Mountain region was the only drop, falling by 1,000 barrels a day to 13,000. Ethanol stockpiles through the week of October 20 rose to 21.39 million barrels, up from 21.1 million a week earlier.

Friday Watch List

Markets

A report on U.S. personal incomes and consumer spending in September will be out at 7:30 a.m. Friday, the same time as the personal consumer expenditures index for September, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. Traders continue to keep a close watch on South American weather as row crop planting progresses.

Weather

A cold front is starting to move south and east through the middle of the country and that is bringing some very cold air into the Plains and western Midwest. The front will light up with areas of showers and thunderstorms from Texas to the Great Lakes throughout the day, which could be heavy again in Texas. Winds behind the front are breezy.

AFBF Congratulates Johnson on Speaker Election

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall welcomed the election of Representative Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, to be Speaker of the House. Johnson was the fourth Republican nominee for the post following the ousting of former speaker Kevin McCarthy. Duvall of AFBF says, "Speaker Johnson has a strong history of supporting America's farmers and ranchers, which has earned him the 'Friend of Farm Bureau' award multiple times." Johnson represents Louisiana's 4th Congressional district, encompassing much of the state's western half, and was first elected to Congress in 2016. Johnson calls the election an "honor of a lifetime" while proclaiming, "We will restore trust in this body.” Duvall of Farm Bureau adds,” America’s families are relying on Speaker Johnson, and Congress, to focus on pressing needs, including completion of fiscal year 2024 appropriations and passage of a farm bill.”

U.S. Household Food Insecurity Increased in 2022

New research from USDA finds that in 2022, 12.8 percent of U.S. households were food insecure at some time during the year. Food insecure means they had difficulty providing enough food for all their members because of a lack of resources. The prevalence of food insecurity in 2022 was statistically significantly higher than the 10.2 percent recorded in 2021 and the 10.5 percent in 2020. Very low food security is a more severe form of food insecurity, and the 2022 prevalence of very low food security was 5.1 percent, statistically significantly higher than the 3.8 percent in 2021 and the 3.9 percent in 2020. In response, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says, “The 2022 Household Food Security in the United States report is a sobering reminder that, while the vast majority of Americans are able to affordably feed themselves and their families, too many of our neighbors struggle to put healthy food on the table.”

USDA Publishes New Organic Livestock and Poultry Standards

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack Wednesday previewed the Organic Livestock and Poultry Standards final rule. USDA says the new rule establishes clear, strong and consistent standards for organic livestock and poultry production, levels the playing field for organic livestock farmers, ranchers and businesses and promotes fairer, more competitive markets for their products, while providing consumers with more transparency about their purchases. Vilsack says, "USDA is creating a fairer, more competitive and transparent food system." Strong interest from consumers and the organic industry drove the change. USDA encouraged the public to comment, and USDA received more than 40,000 written comments, all of which were carefully reviewed to inform drafting of this final rule. USDA also held a listening session in August 2022 to hear public comments on the proposed rule. The final rule outlines standards for six key areas, including outdoor space requirements, indoor and outdoor living conditions, poultry stocking densities, preventative health care, physical alterations, and transport, handling and slaughter.

Bill to Support Organic Dairy Farmers

Senator Tammy Baldwin introduced legislation to support organic dairy farmers and help them address economic challenges like feed shortages and increased costs. The Organic Dairy Assistance, Investment, and Reporting Yields Act of 2023 will increase investments in the organic dairy industry to ensure resiliency and longevity and works to improve data collection for organic milk production to enhance price accuracy and transparency. The Wisconsin Democrat says, "In the face of recent headwinds, I'm committed to delivering the support our dairies need to keep their operations open for generations to come." The legislation would extend emergency assistance to organic dairy farmers facing losses and invest $25 million annually in dairy infrastructure investments. Additionally, the bill directs USDA to the viability of an organic safety net program, which would get aid to farmers faster when disasters hit in the future. Known as the O DAIRY Act of 2023, the bill has broad support from the organic dairy industry, including the Organic Farmers Association.

NCGA Launches 2024 Scholarship Program

The National Corn Growers Association Wednesday announced the launch of its annual scholarship program for the 2024 academic year. The program is designed to support students who are passionate about agriculture and making a positive impact in their community. NCGA will award scholarships to deserving students who demonstrate academic excellence, leadership and community involvement. The scholarships are open to students attending technical school, undergraduate universities, and pursuing graduate-level studies. NCGA Membership & Consumer Engagement Action Team Chair Dan Nerud says, “We believe that education is critical in shaping the future of the agriculture industry, and we are committed to providing opportunities for students to achieve their academic and career goals To apply for the scholarship, students must complete an online application. Submissions are now being accepted, and the deadline to complete them is January 31, 2024. All eligible students are encouraged to apply. For more information and to apply, visit NCGA.com/scholarships.

NCBA 2024 Environmental Stewardship Award Nominations Open

Nominations are now open for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association Environmental Stewardship Award. Established in 1991, the Environmental Stewardship Award Program annually recognizes outstanding stewardship practices and conservation achievements of cattle producers across the nation. NCBA President Todd Wilkinson says, "This award celebrates the innovative efforts our industry is undertaking to protect the environment, engage with communities and remain profitable." Any individual, group or organization is eligible to nominate one individual or business raising or feeding cattle. Individuals and families may not nominate themselves, although nominees may be involved in preparing the application. Past nominees are encouraged to resubmit applications; however, previous winners may not reapply. Along with a typed application, one nomination letter and three letters of recommendation highlighting the nominee's leadership in conservation are required, and the deadline is March 8, 2024. Nominees do not have to be members of NCBA but should support the objectives of their state and national organization. For more information, visit environmentalstewardship.org. 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report is due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT, the same time as U.S. weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders for September, third-quarter U.S. GDP and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor. The U.S. Energy Department's weekly report of natural gas storage is set for 9:30 a.m. and traders will continue to keep an eye on the latest weather developments, especially in South America.

Weather

The zone of precipitation that has been active across the middle of the country all week continues on Thursday with areas of heavy rain from Texas into the Midwest and heavy snow in the Northern Plains, though a little farther south than previous days. Very cold temperatures are pouring into the Northern Plains and will sweep south and east going into next week.

USDA Boosts Investments in International Trade

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack says USDA is providing $2.3 billion to help American producers maintain and develop markets for their commodities. Some of the funds will use U.S. commodities to boost international food aid. A request for the funding initially came from the Senate Ag Committee’s leadership, so USDA will be utilizing funds from the Commodity Credit Corporation to address challenges related to trade and food insecurity impacting U.S. farmers and the international community. USDA will use $1.3 billion for the Regional Agricultural Promotion Program and support for specialty crop industries to diversify export markets. One billion will go to help address global hunger. “The Commodity Credit Corporation continues addressing the needs of American producers as significant and unpredictable challenges arise,” Vilsack says. “Those challenges impact the international commodity markets and global food insecurity in the face of an ongoing conflict.” The goal is to strengthen the U.S. position in global markets.

Ag Responds Positively to Funds for Market Development

The American Soybean Association joined other groups in applauding the USDA’s efforts to strengthen U.S. trade and food aid. USDA announced a total of $2.3 billion in funds going toward those efforts. “Having these funds to sufficiently support export promotion programs and address hunger are things ASA and soy growers have consistently championed,” says ASA president Daryl Cates. Jim Mulhern, President and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, says, “If these funds are distributed to underfunded sectors like dairy, this will put us in a position to be more competitive globally.” Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation, says these new investments in foreign market development are “very timely and much appreciated.” Ryan LeGrand, President and CEO of the U.S. Grains Council, says, “We look forward to expanding exports of corn, sorghum, barley, and their co-products and are grateful for this new source of funding.”

USDA Extends Deadline for Milk Loss Assistance Program

The USDA is extending the application deadline for the Milk Loss Program to Monday, October 30. The agency wants to allow more time for eligible dairy farmers to apply for much-needed weather-related disaster recovery assistance. The program compensates dairy producers who dumped or removed milk without compensation from the commercial milk market in 2020, 2021, and 2022 because of qualifying weather events. Eligible causes of loss also include consequences of those weather events, such as power outages, impassable roads, and infrastructure losses. “We recognize that MLP benefits are critical to the financial recovery of dairy operations significantly impacted by weather-related disasters that inhibited their ability to deliver or store their milk,” says FSA Administrator Zach Ducheneaux. “We know that dairy farming is a 24/7, 365-day commitment and hope this MLP application deadline extension ensures that all dairy farmers in need of assistance will now have adequate time to apply for help.”

Two Positive HPAI Cases in Iowa

The Iowa Ag Department and the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service have confirmed two positive cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. One of the sites is a commercial turkey flock, and the other is a mixed species backyard flock. Both agencies remind commercial and backyard owners to prevent contact between their flocks and all wild birds. Sick birds or unusual deaths among birds must be reported to state and federal officials. Other indications may include lethargy or no appetite, decreasing egg production - soft, thin-shelled, or misshapen eggs - swelling in the head or eyelid area, difficulty breathing or coughing, sneezing, falling down, and diarrhea. If a producer in any state suspects HPAI in a flock, they should contact their veterinarian immediately and their state ag department. The CDC says the recent viral detection in birds doesn’t pose a public health concern, and it’s safe to eat poultry products.

Student Leaders Prepping for National FFA Convention

FFA members and supporters from across the country will celebrate agriculture and agricultural education next week at the 96th National FFA Convention and Expo in Indianapolis. The time-honored tradition will take place November 1-4. Over 65,000 FFA members from the U.S., Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands are expected to attend. The general sessions will take place at Lucas Oil Stadium. Convention events begin on the first day when Expo attendees can explore various career pathways in agriculture and attend leadership workshops. FFA members and advisors can also take their skills to the next level in student and teacher workshops. They’ll hear from industry leaders, motivational speakers, and many other guests. Members will get to discuss their agricultural projects on the new Student Showcase Stage. Service will be front and center at the event as members will participate in service projects at the convention center and various sites in Indianapolis.  

IA Ag Secretary on EPA’s Herbicide Strategy

Mike Naig, Iowa’s Secretary of Agriculture, submitted comments to the Environmental Protection Agency raising serious concerns about its draft Endangered Species Act herbicide strategy. Iowa is a national leader in crop production, so the secretary submitted written comments from the perspective of Iowa farmers and the state’s agriculture community. Naig says he appreciates the agency’s efforts to comply with the Endangered Species Act while still allowing farmers access to crop protection tools. However, he says the proposed strategy is too complex and would be an incredible burden on farmers and pesticide applicators. He also says the EPA must consider the economic impact of the proposed strategy and conduct a thorough economic analysis. “Farmers have proven time and again that they can be productive while also setting conservation records,” Naig says. “This burdensome strategy will jeopardize both those accomplishments.” EPA should also not rush the process to reach a final rule.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

A report on U.S. new home sales in September will be out at 9:00 a.m. CDT, followed by the U.S. Energy Department's weekly report of energy inventories at 9:30 a.m. At 2 p.m., USDA releases its monthly cold storage report. Also, the Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady at 5% Wednesday. Traders continue to have interest in South American weather reports.

Weather

Active weather continues Wednesday with widespread areas of showers from the Plains into the Midwest due to several features and disturbances in the area. Cold air is filling into the Northern Plains, leading to heavy snow across Montana and North Dakota throughout Wednesday, continuing into Thursday. Some windy spots are possible as well. Heavy rain in parts of the Southern Plains may lead to flooding.

U.S. Soybean Meal Exports Expected to Reach Record High

USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service expects record soybean meal exports for marketing year 2022-23, at an estimated 13.2 million tons. USDA says increased soybean crush to supply feedstock oil for growing U.S. biomass-based diesel production is behind the expansion. The new record came from substantial expansion in shipments to the European Union and Vietnam as drought in Argentina, usually the world's largest soybean meal exporter, severely reduced its exportable supplies. Additionally, U.S. soybean meal exports to the Philippines, Colombia, and Mexico held firm despite a strong dollar. In marketing year 2023/24, U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast to reach a new record of 13.9 million tons. U.S. export prices are likely to remain competitive with South American supplies as the United States continues to produce more soybean meal than will be needed domestically, ensuring growing supplies are available to the global market. In the four previous marketing years, exports were relatively flat, hovering over 12 million tons per year.

Study Offers Farmer Viewpoint on Precision Tech

A new study from South Dakota State University investigates farmers’ viewpoints on the most influential factor behind adopting new technologies and practices: profitability. In the study, researchers highlighted eight widely adopted precision ag technologies, including auto-steering and guidance, automatic section control, satellite/aerial imagery, unmanned aerial vehicle/drone imagery, variable rate fertilizer application, variable rate seed and application, variable rate pesticide application and variable rate irrigation application. The most widely adopted precision ag technologies include auto-steering and guidance, which fit under the georeferencing technology category. Satellite imagery was the next most widely adopted technology, with nearly 60 percent of all farmers having used it. Drones and unmanned aerial vehicles fall under a similar category to satellite imagery. However, drones are much less prevalent, with an adoption rate of 26 percent. To further facilitate precision ag adoption, the research team noted that financial support during the first few years of adopting a new technology could be beneficial.

USDA Conducting Sheep Study in 2024

USDA's National Animal Health Monitoring System conducts a national sheep study approximately every ten years, and will do so again next year. The Sheep 2024 Study will support industry groups and research efforts with new information on sheep health and management. The study consists of two phases and includes biological sampling and two questionnaires. A random selection of almost 5,000 sheep operations located in specific states will be asked to participate. While participation is voluntary, it is important to obtain high-quality data. The National Agricultural Statistics Service will contact selected participants in January and February 2024. Participants will be asked to provide their contact information to complete the second phase of the study, which begins in April 2024 and continues through July 2024. Information from the study will help develop new treatments, controls and prevention mechanisms for sheep diseases. The results will also guide future research and education.

PPP loans provided $5.8 billion to U.S. farm sector in 2020

Researchers at USDA’s Economic Research Service estimate that the Paycheck Protection Program provided $5.8 billion to the farm sector in 2020. The PPP was a non-USDA assistance program for small businesses adversely affected by the pandemic. Total Federal Government payments to the farm sector in 2020 were $45.6 billion, meaning that PPP payments were 13 percent of total payments. The Small Business Administration administered the PPP, providing forgivable loans to eligible small businesses and certain other entities to allow them to cover some of their payroll costs. The PPP loans were forgiven in full if the loan was used on eligible expenses, including at least 60 percent on payroll expenses. Agricultural producers in California were the largest recipients of PPP loans at $1.1 billion, followed by Washington at $285 million. California leads the nation in the value of agricultural production and has the highest hired labor expense among states.

Canada Announces Wildfire, Drought Support for Farmers

As U.S. farmers faced drought conditions this year, so too did producers from Canada. Recently, Canada announced support for farmers and ranchers who are dealing with extraordinary costs due to drought conditions and wildfires. Canada announced C$219 million of support available through the AgriRecovery Framework. The funding will help them recover and ensure they have the tools they need to continue to be resilient in the face of natural disasters and extreme weather events. The announcement follows the August designation of specific regions for the Livestock Tax Deferral for 2023 due to extreme weather conditions. The Livestock Tax Deferral provision allows livestock producers who are forced to sell all or part of their breeding herd due to drought or excess moisture to defer a portion of their income from sales until the following tax year. This month, Farm Credit Canada also announced a new Replacement Heifer Program to help Canadian cattle producers in maintaining or expanding their herds.

Weaker Demand Driving Fuel Prices Lower

Average gas prices declined again for the fifth straight week, with gasoline dropping 5.2 cents last week to $3.50 a gallon, according to GasBuddy. The national average is down 33.2 cents from a month ago and 26.8 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. However, the average diesel price increased 3.8 cents last week to $4.48 per gallon, yet 82 cents lower than one year ago. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan says, “The national average is on the cusp of falling to the lowest level since March, something that could happen this week.” Gasoline demand continues to weaken as the calendar marches towards winter, coupled with cheaper winter gasoline and refinery issues that have faded. For now, that trend will likely mean further declines in the weeks ahead, before prices bottom out between Thanksgiving and Christmas. The most common U.S. gas law week stood at $3.29 per gallon, while demand saw a 1.8 percent decrease.

Tuesday Market Watch

Markets

There are no official reports for Tuesday, but several earnings reports will get traders' attention, including reports from ADM, Alphabet (Google), GM, Microsoft and others. Traders are also interested in South American weather, rain in this week's U.S. forecast and news from the wars in Israel and Ukraine.

Weather

The setup for heavy precipitation continues in the middle of the country Tuesday with remnants of a tropical storm moving through Texas into Missouri throughout the day. A front from Nebraska to Wisconsin is also an area that could see precipitation but is the dividing line of colder air to the north and warm air to the south. Another, stronger cold front is moving through the Canadian Prairies, where snow is common today.

Record-Low Mississippi River Level at Memphis

The Mississippi River gauge hit a record-low water level on October 11 at Memphis, Tennessee. The all-time low hit -11.52 feet. It surpasses the previous low of -10.81 feet set in October 2022. The weekly USDA Grain Transportation Report says records were also broken on the Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois. That gauge read 4.5 feet, the lowest river level since 1901. Draft and tow-size restrictions are in place along the entire Mississippi River system. Despite some recent rains, more rain will be needed to raise water levels enough to improve the navigation conditions. Water levels are projected to rise by late October and early November, but navigation conditions aren’t expected to improve before late December or early January. Despite the navigation issues, the recent St. Louis spot freight rate fell for the third week in a row to $23.06 per ton, 68 percent below the same week last year.  

Big Four Packers Hit with Another Suit

The four largest meatpackers were hit by a new price-fixing lawsuit from a group of small food distributors. The suit was filed on October 9 in the U.S. District Court in Northern Illinois, accusing the Packers of fixing prices for years. The plaintiffs say the price-fixing dates back to at least January 1, 2015, and includes Cargill, JBS, Tyson Foods, and National Beef Packing Company. The distributors say the Big Four “exploited their market power in this highly concentrated market by conspiring to limit the supply of beef sold to purchasers in the U.S. wholesale market, which resulted in higher prices paid by the plaintiffs.” They also claim the alleged scheme caused financial harm at least through the end of 2021. “As a result, the plaintiffs paid higher prices for beef than they otherwise would have paid in a competitive market,” the lawsuit says while seeking relief under the Sherman Act.  

Fourth Consider Corn Challenge Winners Announced

The National Corn Growers Association announced the winners of the Consider Corn Challenge IV. Four winners were chosen for their unique ways to improve a product or process using feed corn to produce biobased materials. “Corn’s unique versatility can be witnessed in the showcase of their diverse approaches and applications,” says Sarah McKay, director of market development for NCGA. The winners include Penn State University, whose technology uses both corn starch and corn oil for applications in energy storage in lithium batteries. Nexceris has developed a new sugar-to-chemical process that uses renewable dextrose to make industrial chemicals instead of oil or gas. Maizly has developed the world’s first corn-based milk alternative called Maizly Original. Bluestem Biosciences developed a new yeast biology for the sustainable anaerobic production of 3-HP acids. “The Consider Corn Challenge fosters collaborations between corn farmers and industry, paving the way for innovative products and applications,” McKay adds.

Farm Bureau Women Sharpen Communication Skills

Fifteen farm and ranch women leaders graduated from the fall session of the Women’s Communication Boot Camp hosted by the American Farm Bureau Federation. The agricultural leaders completed an intensive four-day course that featured sessions focused on public speaking, working with the media, and messaging. Program graduates will use this training to support Farm Bureau’s priority issues. This includes participating in local media opportunities, sharing information with elected officials, and joining social media campaigns spotlighting modern agriculture. “Agriculture needs strong advocates who are willing to step up and share their stories at the local, state, and national level,” says Isabella Chism (CHIZ-um), Chair of the Women’s Leadership Committee. “The Farm Bureau women leaders who completed this training are poised to creatively use their skills in a broad range of settings.” The program has a total of 284 graduates over 19 years and is open to all women involved in Farm Bureau.

Smaller Operating Loans Slow Ag Lending Activity

Farm lending activity slowed further in the third quarter alongside a drop in operating loan volumes. The number of new non-real estate farm loans was flat compared to a year ago, while the average size shrank almost 20 percent. The amount of operating loans over $1 million dropped notably. The Kansas City Fed says lending has softened alongside significant increases in farm loan interest rates that have put considerable upward pressure on financing costs. The farm economy has moderated in recent months as profit margins thinned alongside lower commodity prices and elevated expenses. Credit needs have increased for many borrowers because of high input costs, but strong liquidity built up in recent years has also allowed many producers to supplement additional loan advances. Higher financing costs have prompted farmers with enough liquidity to limit debt usage, but any softening in farm finances could reduce reserves and increase loan demand.

September Milk Production Up Slightly

Milk production in the 24 major dairy states during September totaled 17.5 billion pounds, up slightly from September 2022. August revised production, at 18.1 billion pounds, was 0.7 percent below August 2022. The August revision represented a decrease of 73 million pounds or 0.4 percent from last month’s preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major states averaged 1,960 pounds for September, three pounds above September 2022. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major states was 8.91 million head, 16,000 head less than in September 2022 and 2,000 head less than August 2023. Milk production in the July through September quarter totaled 56.1 billion pounds, down 0.7 percent from the July through September quarter in 2022. The average number of milk cows in the United States during the quarter was 9.38 million head, 43,000 head less than April through June 2023 quarter, and 33,000 head less than 2022.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will keep an eye on events in Israel and Ukraine and keep tabs on harvest progress with rain expected in the U.S. this week. USDA's weekly grain export inspections report is at 10 a.m. CDT, followed by Crop Progress at 3 p.m. Cattle prices will respond to Friday's larger-than-expected placement and on-feed totals.

Weather

Portions of the Southern Plains, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest will see scattered rain showers Monday. Areas in western Texas have a risk for flash flooding with areas of heavy rain developing. 1.00-2.00 inches of rain are possible in western Texas throughout Monday and into early Tuesday morning.

Ag Groups Urge Caution About Fertilizer Duties

The National Corn Growers Association and 62 other ag groups say fertilizer shortages are creating a hardship for U.S. farmers. The groups sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo asking her to consider the current difficulties faced by farmers as she recalculates duties on phosphate fertilizer imported from Morocco. “High costs and limited availability of fertilizer continue to strain family farms across the U.S.,” the groups said. The duties levied on fertilizers have caused some of the top phosphate fertilizer importers to drastically reduce the amount brought in. The letter comes after the U.S. Court of International Trade ordered the agency to reconsider its previous decision on recalculating the duties. The letter says duties levied on phosphate imports combined with other factors have led to substantial price volatility over the past three years as prices increased 230 percent from 2020 to 2022. A determination will be announced on December 13.

World Dairy Summit Celebrates the Future

The first International Dairy Federation World Dairy Summit held in the U.S. in over 30 years recently concluded in Chicago. Over 1,240 dairy leaders from 55 countries celebrated the IDF’s 120th anniversary and highlighted dairy innovations, market opportunities, and contributions to global sustainability and food security. “U. S. Dairy is honored to have hosted this momentous IDF WDS 2023, bringing dairy’s premier annual gathering to the U.S. for the first time in over three decades,” says U.S. IDF Co-Chair Nick Gardner. Summit leadership emphasized bringing the global dairy sector together, releasing a declaration statement calling on governments, global organizations, and the world’s food and beverage sector to support “Being Dairy.” The summit delivered dynamic programming, including eight main sessions and 21 break-out sessions focused on dairy policy, scientific, and technical issues and insights. “The hard work of the dairy sector produces nutritious food for over six billion consumers,” Gardner says.  

Early 2023 Hog and Cattle Weights Lagged Behind 2022

Live weights of both hogs and cattle ran below year-earlier weights for the early part of 2023. Hog live weights averaged 284.9 pounds through the week ending on July 8, 2023, compared to 287.3 pounds during the same time in 2022. That’s an average difference of over 2.4 pounds. Lower weights this year are likely because of producer losses caused by high feed costs and low hog prices due to weaker pork demand. Live cattle weights averaged 1,370 pounds through May 20, 2023, 16.25 pounds less than weights over the same period last year. Lower weights are likely caused by numerous factors, including more heifers with lower weights in the slaughter mix due to ongoing drought conditions that discouraged the retention of heifers for breeding. Additionally, feedlot performance was likely affected by adverse weather conditions early in 2023, resulting in lower rates of gain. Hog weights hit year-earlier levels in mid-July.

Research Investments Spur New Agricultural Markets

The USDA’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture announced an investment of almost $22 million in agricultural economics research. That research will include agricultural markets, international trade, farm labor, consumer behavior and nutrition, food retail, agricultural production, processing, and agricultural policy. NIFA Director Manjit (Man-JEET) Misra says, “The challenges facing the agricultural sector, the production and consumption of food, and management of natural resources and the environment continue to evolve.” The agency chief also says NIFA supports research that investigates the increasing global demands for food production in the face of limited resources and changing climate. “These will have major implications for how we use natural resources, promote healthy diets, invest in science, and foster economic opportunities and quality of life for all Americans,” Misra says in a release. He made the announcement in Colorado during a keynote address at the Global Forum for Rural Advisory Service Annual Meeting in Denver.

New Eggnog in Time for the Holidays

Organic Valley Cooperative released its limited-time eggnog with a new recipe. It’s made from scratch and coming just in time for the holiday season. The farmer-owned organic co-op calls the new recipe its Organic Reduced Fat Eggnog, which is already available for purchase throughout the country. Milk is sourced from small family farms, as well as the eggs, sugar, nutmeg, and natural flavor. Dairy Processing reports that like all Organic Valley products, the eggnog’s milk comes from dairy farms where the cows are raised without the use of antibiotics, synthetic hormones, toxic pesticides, or GMOs. The company says it heard loud and clear from consumers that eggnog is an important part of their winter traditions, so the co-op came together to work hand-in-hand with their smaller family farmers to make the new eggnog a reality. “We’re excited to introduce this made-from-scratch recipe,” says Jaclyn Cardin, chief brand officer at Organic Valley.

Butter Prices Hit Record Highs

Butter prices have hit a record high this month as lower production levels create supply constraints heading into the holiday season when demand normally peaks. The USDA says spot butter prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange hit a record high at $3.44 a pound last week. August butter production was at the lowest level in almost five years because of tighter milk supplies, fewer imports, and the increased use of cream in making other products. Agriculture Dive says the summer’s heat impacted milk supplies in two ways: the heat caused cows to produce less milk, and consumers demanded more ice cream and other dairy-based products. U.S. butter use has trended higher year-over-year since February, but production hasn’t kept up. Year-to-date domestic use was 8.2 percent higher than last year, while production and imports rose only four percent. USDA says the surge in demand is much higher than is typical.

Friday Watch List

Markets

USDA's cattle on-feed report for October 1 will be out at 2 p.m. Traders will be focused on any new export sales, along with weather in South America, and geopolitical developments from Ukraine or the Middle East.

Weather

Mostly dry conditions are expected across the Plains and Mississippi Valley Friday with high pressure in control. However, a quick system will move through northern and eastern areas of the Upper Midwest this afternoon and tonight.

Arkansas Orders Syngenta to Sell Farmland

Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin this week ordered Syngenta to divest its ownership of approximately 160 acres in the state. Griffin also imposed a civil penalty of $280,000 for failure to timely report foreign ownership by the Chinese state-owned company. The land in question is owned by Northrup King Seed Co., a subsidiary of Syngenta Seeds, LLC, which is ultimately owned by China National Chemical Company, known as ChemChina. Griffin says, "I am ordering ChemChina, as a 'prohibited foreign-party-controlled business' to divest this land within two years, or I will commence an enforcement action in Craighead County circuit court." Under Arkansas Act 636, state law bars a "prohibited foreign-party-controlled business" from acquiring or holding public or private land in Arkansas either directly or through affiliated parties. In March 2022, Syngenta Seeds, LLC submitted paperwork to USDA regarding the property under the federal Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act, stating that "ultimately, the foreign person that holds indirectly a significant interest in the person owning the land is from China."

APHIS Partnership to Improve Early Detection of Emerging Animal Diseases

The Department of Agriculture Wednesday announced a new partnership between the National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility and the National Animal Health Laboratory Network. USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service will place five scientists in labs in each of the five National Animal Health Laboratory Network regions to enhance the capabilities and capacities of the network. USDA Chief Veterinarian Dr. Rosemary Sifford says, "Our goal is to ensure all network laboratories are poised to combat the threat of transboundary and emerging diseases to protect our nation's agricultural and food supply systems." USDA selected the following laboratories to participate: Cornell University Animal Health Diagnostic Center, Virginia Tech Animal Laboratory Services, Michigan State University Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory, Arizona Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory, and Washington Animal Disease Diagnostic Laboratory. The scientists will evaluate and develop diagnostics for animal and zoonotic diseases. They will collaborate across the organizations and will be responsible for evaluating local, regional, national, and international threats and ensuring the laboratories have the tools necessary to diagnose emerging threats.

Lawmakers Reintroduce the Adopt GREET Act

Lawmakers Wednesday announce the reintroduction of the Adopt GREET Act. The legislation is a bipartisan bill directing the Environmental Protection Agency to update its greenhouse gas modeling for ethanol and biodiesel. Republican Senators Chuck Grassley of Iowa, John Thune of South Dakota, and Minnesota Democrat Amy Klobuchar introduced the legislation. Grassley says, "My colleagues and I are working to empower the innovation stemming from our energy and agricultural communities, and get federal emissions testing up to speed with private sector producers." The Adopt GREET Act would require the EPA to apply the Argonne National Lab's "Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation" or GREET Model to energy commodities under the Renewable Fuel Standard. It would hold EPA accountable by ensuring the agency updates its modeling every five years. The EPA would need to report to Congress either affirming its modeling is current or explaining why no updates were made.

OTA Welcomes Organic Standards Act

The Organic Trade Association applauds the introduction of the Continuous Improvement and Accountability in Organic Standards Act. The legislation ensures organic standards continuously evolve and improve and to hold the federal government accountable for keeping up with the needs and expectations of the dynamic organic marketplace. The legislation would amend the Organic Foods Production Act of 1990 to provide a streamlined and predictable process to review and revise organic standards implemented by USDA. It would enable the improvement and advancement of organic to forge ahead into the future. OTA CEO and Executive Director Tom Chapman says, "Ensuring continuous improvement for organic is our highest priority in the 2023 Farm Bill, and this legislation goes far to address that objective." The bill requires the USDA to review and revise national organic standards "not less frequently than once every five years." The legislation also highlights the continuation of the established consultation process with the National Organic Standards Board and input from the public.

USDA Announces Nearly $50 Million to Strengthen Forest Products

USDA’s Forest Service Wednesday announced nearly $50 million in grant funding. The funding is for proposals that support crucial links between resilient, healthy forests, strong rural economies and jobs in the forestry sector. USDA says the funding will spark innovation, create new markets for wood products, expand processing capacity, and help tackle the climate crisis. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says, "We are investing in rural economies by growing markets for forest products through sustainable forest management while reducing wildfire risk, fighting climate change, and accelerating economic development." The Forest Service is requesting proposals from eligible entities in the private, non-profit, and government sectors, including Tribes, local and state governments, businesses and for-profit entities, institutions of higher education, as well as public utility, fire, conservation, and school districts, among others. These investments will support forest management projects to improve forest health and reduce wildfire risk across all land ownerships. Visit the Forest Service webpage for more information.

New Call for Applications in Aflatoxin Research Grants

The National Corn Growers Association Wednesday announced a new round of research grants to help farmers manage aflatoxin issues. Proposals not exceeding the $100,000 per year limit—will be accepted by the Aflatoxin Mitigation Center of Excellence no later than Wednesday, November 15, 2023. The competitive grants program offers research grants for projects focused on solving profit-robbing aflatoxin issues for farmers. The program was developed by a consortium of southern state corn checkoff boards to provide a unified approach to funding projects affecting growers across the region. NCGA serves as the management structure to leverage more dollars for solving aflatoxin issues and to build strong regional teams, which would be highly competitive for federal, public, and private funding. Projects funded through the grant program for 2024 should focus on one of these three priority research areas: ideas that prevent or defend against aflatoxin, In-field mitigation measures, and post-harvest strategies. For more information, visit NCGA.com.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report is due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Thursday, the same time as weekly U.S. jobless claims, and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor. The U.S. Energy Department's weekly report of natural gas storage is set for 9:30 a.m.

Weather

Isolated to scattered rain showers are likely across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley today as a cold front works from west to east across these regions. Dry and relatively warm conditions return across the Plains.

CRP Pays Over $1.77 Billion

The USDA has issued over $1.77 billion this year to agricultural producers and landowners through its Conservation Reserve Program. The agency says the program is a critical piece of the Department’s efforts to support climate-smart agriculture and forestry on working lands. More than 667,000 participants received payments from the Farm Service Agency for their voluntary conservation efforts on more than 23 million acres of private land. “Through the addition of tools to sequester carbon, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and better quantify these efforts, we’ve made the Conservation Reserve Program better for the nation’s ag producers and landowners and our natural resources,” says Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack. The USDA also listed the top five states for CRP participation payments, including Iowa at number one, followed by Illinois, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Missouri. “We are grateful to all CRP participants who are making a tremendous difference now and for future generations,” Vilsack adds.

Global Crop Protection Market to Jump by 2032

The global agricultural landscape is on the brink of a large shift, with the crop protection chemicals market points to witness extraordinary growth. The market will exceed $132.4 billion by the year 2032. Global Market Insights, Inc., says the unprecedented surge can be attributed to a confluence of factors ranging from technological advancements to swelling population numbers to the pressing need for more sustainable agricultural practices. The world population expected to reach almost 9l7 billion people by 2050 necessitates a dramatic surge in food production. This will put immense pressure on the ag sector, and crop protection chemicals play an instrumental role in ensuring optimal yields. While the use of crop protection tools is essential to modern agriculture, sustainable practices like biopesticides and the exploration of natural enemies are examples of a shift towards more ecologically stable approaches. As world population surges, crop protection chemicals will help ensure food security.

Senators Challenge EPA Rodenticide Restrictions

Senators Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MI), along with 15 Senate colleagues, are challenging the EPA to abandon its proposed mitigation measures targeting 11 rodenticides. In a letter to Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan, the senators urged Regan to consult the businesses and individuals who rely on rodent control products when developing rules that affect their operations. “As written, the proposed mitigation measures will place severe restrictions on product users and result in crop damage and livestock loss, jeopardize the safety of the food supply, weaken public health protections, and make it more difficult for people to protect their homes and properties from rodents,” the letter says. The EPA’s proposed mitigation measures would classify most rodent control products as restricted-use pesticides and require users to become licensed, state-certified applicators. It would prohibit surface application methods for protecting crops and require growers to conduct carcass searches for two weeks after application.

USDA Trims America’s Feed Grain Supplies

October U.S. feed grain production is forecast at 396.6 million tons for the 2023-2024 marketing year, down 1.8 million tons on reduced corn and sorghum output. With lower beginning stocks partly offset by a slight bump in imports, the total feed grain supply is projected 4.1 million tons lower this month at 436 million. Reflecting a slight yield decrease to 173 bushels per acre on unchanged harvested acreage, U.S. corn production is 69.5 million bushels lower this month at 15.06 billion. The September 30 Grain Stocks Report estimated American corn stocks on September 1 at 1.36 billion bushels, down 90 million from the September WASDE report. With reductions in food, seed, and industrial use and exports based on observed data, 2022-2023 feed and residual disappearance is higher than previously forecast. These factors contribute to smaller carry-in for the 2023-2024 marketing year and, ultimately, a lower corn supply, projected at 16.45 billion bushels.

NHSTA CAFE Standards Will Weaken Energy Security

The National Highway Traffic Safety Standards proposed new fuel economy standards that greatly missed the intent of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy Program to enhance energy security. That’s according to comments filed by the National Corn Growers Association, the Renewable Fuel Association, and the National Farmers Union. They assert the proposal will lead to an overreliance on critical foreign minerals due to its singular dependence on electric vehicles. “As NHTSA determines the appropriate CAFE and fuel efficiency standards, it should avoid putting all our eggs into the electrification basket,” the groups say in their comments. “The proposal missed the intent of the CAFÉ program. As Congress acknowledged, solving energy security and air pollution issues related to the transportation sector require a diversified portfolio of approaches.” The associations note problems with overreliance on electric vehicles because of the increased security vulnerabilities of getting critical minerals from overseas that are needed for the batteries.

Weekly Corn Export Inspections Drop

Inspections of corn for overseas delivery dropped week-to-week while bean assessments improved. USDA data says corn inspections totaled  434,471 metric tons in the seven days ending on October 12. That’s a significant drop from over 800,400 tons the week prior and just below the 460,000 tons assessed during the same week in 2022. Examinations of soybeans for export surged to just over two million metric tons last week, up from 1.4 million the previous week and higher than the 1.93 million tons assessed during the same week last year. Wheat inspections also rose, increasing to 354,771 metric tons from just over 306,600 tons during the previous week. That’s also up from the 244,500 tons assessed during the same week in 2022. Since the new marketing year began on September 1, USDA has assessed 3.93 million metric tons of corn for offshore delivery, and soybean inspections are at 5.4 million tons.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Wednesday morning, the government will report housing starts and building permits. We will be watching for any new sales announcements and for weather changes in South America. .

Weather

A low pressure system will bring areas of scattered, light rain showers to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Wednesday. By Wednesday night, this system will continue shifting east, providing light rain showers to the northern Mississippi River Valley.

U.S. Grains Council Hosting Global Ethanol Summit

The U.S. Grains Council kicked off the week by hosting the Global Ethanol Summit in Washington, D.C., held for the first time since 2019. The Global Ethanol Summit is an education and trade forum that seeks to elevate bioethanol's international visibility. U.S. Grains Council President and CEO Ryan LeGrand says, “I’m thrilled to see so many industry leaders and policymakers gathering here in the Washington area with the common goal of implementing environmental and human-health friendly bioethanol in regions around the world.” Monday programming offered keynote addresses from POET Founder and CEO Jeff Broin, Summit Agricultural Group Executive Chairman Bruce Rastetter and U.S. Department of Agriculture Acting Deputy Undersecretary Jason Hafemeister. Memorandums of understanding will be signed between domestic producers and overseas importers Tuesday (today). At the end of the event, 11 groups of participants will travel around the country to view the biofuel value chain firsthand before returning to their home countries. The event concludes Wednesday.

USDA Extends Milk Loss Program Assistance

The Department of Agriculture last week extended the application deadline for the Milk Loss Program to Monday, October 30, 2023. The extension allows more time for eligible dairy farmers to apply for much-needed, weather-related disaster recovery assistance. Administered by USDA’s Farm Service Agency, MLP compensates dairy producers who, because of qualifying weather events, dumped or removed milk without compensation from the commercial milk market in calendar years 2020, 2021 and 2022. Eligible causes of loss also include consequences of these weather events, such as power outages, impassable roads and infrastructure losses. FSA opened MLP enrollment on September 11, 2023; the original MLP deadline was October 16, 2023. Most producers, especially those who have previously participated in FSA programs, will likely have the required forms already on file. But those who are uncertain or want to confirm the status of their forms can contact FSA at their local USDA Service Center.

USDA Releases Monthly Cotton and Wool Outlook

The latest Department of Agriculture cotton projections for 2023/24 indicate global cotton beginning and ending stocks decreased by approximately ten million bales, 11 percent, from the previous month. The decrease, however, was largely attributable to a permanent accounting change for Brazil’s production data back to 2000/01. For 2023/24, global cotton ending stocks, at 79.9 million bales, are 2.9 million bales, or 3.5 percent lower than the previous year, as mill use is estimated to exceed production. China accounts for nearly half of global cotton stocks once again in 2023/24, with India, Brazil, and the United States combining for an additional 25 percent. World cotton production is forecast at 112.6 million bales in 2023/24, 3.2 percent below the previous year, as the global yield is projected to decline. World cotton trade is projected to rise 17 percent in 2023/24, supporting the expected 4.4 percent increase in global cotton mill use to 115.8 million bales.

Grants to Establish Children’s Health Research Centers in Rural Communities

The Environmental Protection Agency Monday announced $3.7 million in grant funding to two institutions to establish research centers. The facilities will address children’s cumulative health impacts from agricultural and non-chemical exposures. Children in underserved, rural agricultural communities face increased health risks due to the combination of agricultural, according to the EPA. The agency says there is an urgent need to investigate the cumulative health impacts of chemical and non-chemical exposures for children in these communities. EPA spokesperson Chris Frey says, “EPA is funding these research centers to identify effective, science-based options aimed at reducing early childhood health disparities in agricultural communities.” Florida State University will use the funding to evaluate chemical and psychosocial stressors and promote children’s cumulative health in rural and agricultural communities. The University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center will use the grants to mitigate the chemical and non-chemical stressors that affect school absenteeism caused by gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases in Texas and Oklahoma.

Tulare County, California Top Ag Producer in 2022

Tulare (too-larry) County, California, is the number one ag-producing county in the United States for 2022. While Fresno County, California, reported a record $8 billion haul for 2022, it didn't beat Tulare County's $8.6 billion report. Both counties benefited from improved market prices and continue to corner the market in the top spots in the nation for ag production. Add in Kern County, California, at number three, and the Central Valley counties are a combined agriculture and economic powerhouse valued at $24.4 billion. Putting this in perspective, three California counties account for 44 percent of California's total ag production value of $55.8 billion. Tulare County has a growing population of 479,112 and includes an area of 4,863 square miles. The fertile valley floor in the Western half of the county has allowed Tulare County to become the top producer of agricultural commodities in the United States, while the Eastern half is comprised of mostly public lands.

Fuel Prices Decline After Volatile Week

For the fourth consecutive week, the nation's average price of gasoline dropped, falling 11.3 cents from a week ago to $3.55 per. The national average is down 29.9 cents from a month ago and 30.9 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average diesel price fell 5.8 cents last week and stands at $4.48 per gallon, 55.2 cents lower than one year ago. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan says, "For now, the national average is likely to soon fall to its lowest level in six months." However, De Haan cautions, "this depends on actions that are not foreseeable, mainly the conflict in the Middle East." As the situation continues to unfold, markets will be watching interactions between Iran as well as responses from Israel, and while all eyes have been on those escalations, Saudi Arabia has put an end for now to a possible weapons and security pact between the U.S. and Israel.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Tuesday morning, the U.S. government will be out with retail sales and industrial production reports. We will also be watching for developments in the Israel versus Hamas conflict, with President Joe Biden arriving Wednesday for a meeting with Israel representatives. We will also be watching for any new export sales, and weather in South America. .

Weather

A storm system will be moving through the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains on Tuesday, producing some areas of isolated showers throughout the day with increasing winds. The rest of the country is rather quiet.

Top 5 Things to Watch - Global Events, Reports Drive Markets

1. Post-WASDE worries: Lowered corn expectations in the United States (see our latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report coverage) will continue to run into the market volatility driven by global conflicts and the ongoing Congressional leadership drama. DTN analysts will continue to factor all this windage and elevation into where the commodity market targets hit.

2. Soil moisture watch: We'll watch drought monitors in the U.S. and in Canada to see how recent rains have changed soil moisture as we go into late fall and winter. Conditions continue to cause low water levels in the Mississippi River Valley, causing barge issues up and down those critical waterways.

3. Crop insurance comes into focus: With more than a third of the U.S. corn crop harvested, farmers have concrete ideas about their yields. Those real-world results are also reflected in this month's WASDE report, which lowered corn yields to 173 bushels per acre for expected average. Lower corn yields are coinciding with lower prices, which means crop insurance payments are becoming more likely for farmers who chose revenue-guarantee products. 

4. Cattle numbers coming: This week sees the latest USDA Cattle on Feed report coming out Friday. We'll have our analyst's preview of the report mid-week, then actual numbers hit at 2 p.m. CDT Friday, with analysis of those numbers shortly after.

5. Economic reports calendar: Monday will see USDA's weekly grain export inspections at 10 a.m. CDT, followed by Crop Progress at 3 p.m. We'll have our commentary on Crop Progress soon after. Tuesday is a broad economy two-fer with U.S. retail sales for September due out at 7:30 a.m., followed by the Fed's report on U.S. industrial production at 8:15 a.m. Wednesday features the U.S. housing starts for September, out at 7:30 a.m., followed by the U.S. Energy Department's weekly energy inventories at 10 a.m. At 1 p.m., the Fed releases its description of economic activity in the Beige Book. Thursday is a busy morning, with USDA's weekly export sales report, U.S. weekly jobless claims and the updated U.S. Drought Monitor all due at 7:30 a.m. CDT. U.S. existing home sales in September and U.S. leading indicators are both due out at 9 a.m., followed by the U.S. Energy Department's weekly report of natural gas storage at 9:30 a.m. As noted earlier, Friday is USDA's monthly cattle on feed report for Oct. 1.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will check the latest news from Israel and Ukraine, as well as the latest weather forecasts with seasonal attention on South America. USDA's weekly grain export inspections are due out at 10 a.m. CDT Monday, followed by the Crop Progress at 3 p.m.

Weather

A lull between systems has set itself into the middle of the country for Monday, keeping most areas dry. Isolated showers may form south of the Great Lakes, however. Some cold morning temperatures will produce frosts in the Plains Monday morning and Tuesday morning as well.

Higher Interest Rates, Strong Dollar Affecting Rural Economies

CoBank says the combination of high interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar is beginning to take a disproportionate toll on rural industries like agriculture, forestry, and manufacturing. Most international transactions are still conducted in dollars, and a strong dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper. CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange says that disproportionately hurts the backbone of the rural economy. “The challenge for agriculture and other rural industries that rely heavily on global markets is their export partners simply can’t afford to buy U.S. products,” says Rob Fox, Knowledge Exchange Director. America’s economic position relative to other countries has gotten much stronger than anticipated. The expectation that interest rates will remain high for the foreseeable future has also contributed to the stronger dollar. “When you combine the export loss with a general slowdown in the U.S. economy, it’s a double whammy for many businesses in rural America,” says Fox.

Brazil Produces Less Corn, More Soybeans

Brazil’s corn production will drop significantly while the soybean output will surge in the 2023-2024 marketing year. Those numbers come from CONAB (KOH-nab), Brazil’s food agency. South American corn output is projected at 119.4 million metric tons. If it’s reached, that would be down from the 131.9 million metric tons produced in the 2022-2023 marketing year. Also, soybean output is now forecast by CONAB at 162 million metric tons. The rise is tied to strong overseas demand, especially from China. Production during the previous marketing year totaled 154.6 million metric tons. CONAB says total grain and soybean production is predicted to reach 317.5 million metric tons, a number the agency says is down 1.5 percent year over year. Wheat production was predicted to reach 10.5 million metric tons, down modestly year over year because of weather issues. Brazil’s rice output is expected to rise 7.7 percent to 10.8 million tons.

October WASDE Shows Lower U.S. Corn and Soybean Production

The latest World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates Report says U.S. corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down 70 million on a cut in yield to 173 bushels per acre. The corn outlook predicts reduced supplies, down less than one percent, but ten percent above 2022. The season-average corn price received by producers was raised a nickel to $4.95 a bushel. Soybean production is forecast at 4.1 billion bushels, down 42 million on lower yields. The yield is predicted at 49.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels from last month. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, supplies are reduced by 24 million bushels. The season-average soybean price is unchanged at $12.90 per bushel. Wheat supplies were raised by 85 million bushels this month, primarily on higher production as reported in the NASS Small Grains Summary. The season-average farm price dropped 20 cents per bushel to $7.30.   

September Food Price Index Unchanged

The U.N.’s Food and Agricultural Organization’s Food Price Index averaged 121.5 points in September, basically unchanged from the value in August. Declines in the price index for vegetable oils, dairy, and meat offset increases in the sugar and cereal price indices. That 121.5 reading was ten percent below its corresponding level from a year ago and 24 percent from the all-time high in March 2022. The Sugar Price Index took the biggest jump in September, rising 14.5 points from August to an average of 162.7 points. It’s the highest level since November 2010. The Cereal Price Index rose one percent to 126.3 points in September. The Vegetable Oil Price Index dropped five points in September to average 120.9 points. The Dairy Price Index averaged 108.6 points during the month, down 2.6 points and 34 points under the same time last year. The Meat Price Index dropped one percent to 114.2 points.

Fund Awards Over $1 Million to U.S. Farmers and Ranchers

American Farmland Trust recently awarded more than $1 million to 110 farmers around the country through the Brighter Future Fund. The grant announcement came out on National Farmer’s Day that recognizes the importance of American farmers. This year, AFT received more than 1,500 applications from 48 states, an all-time high and almost double the number of applications last year. Priority was given to applicants who were starting their agricultural pursuits, veterans, women, or those with limited resources. Funds were allocated for both professional services and equipment or infrastructure costs, with focus areas including improving farm viability, accessing farmland, and adopting regenerative agricultural practices. AFT awards grants to farmers and ranchers to advance its mission to protect farmland, promote sound farming practices, and keep farmers on the land. The Brighter Future Fund was launched in 2020 to help farmers around the U.S. start, grow, and sustain farms despite a number of challenges.

Ag Groups Want Congress to Pass AM Radio Legislation

Nine organizations representing rural and agricultural interests wrote a letter to Congress in support of passing the AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act. “AM radio is an essential communications medium in rural America,” the letter says. “Local news, weather, and sports reporters are recognized as respected sources for information that affects the lives of millions of rural residents.” The letter was sent to lawmakers by multiple groups like the Independent Cattlemen’s Association of Texas, the Latino Farmers & Ranchers International, the Livestock Marketing Association, the National Farmers Union, the National Grange, and others. The letter touts the reach of traditional AM radio broadcasts that carry a strong signal over significant distances, even during catastrophic weather events. FEMA also relies on AM radio to deliver critical public safety information. “When power goes out in rural America and cell networks drop, households can still get emergency information through their radios,” the letter adds.

Friday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report is due out at 7:30 a.m. Friday, one day after USDA reduced export estimates for corn and soybeans. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index follows at 9 a.m. Traders remain interested in the latest weather forecasts and news from Ukraine, Israel and Washington D.C.

Weather

A storm system is moving eastward into the Midwest Friday, bringing areas of heavy rain with it. Strong winds in the Plains may reach up to 60 mph through the daylight hours before winding down Friday night. Cold air filtering in behind the system will bring the first frosts and freezes to the southwestern Plains Friday night.

Survey Reveals Consumer Purchasing Behaviors

A new survey from the United Soybean Board reveals valuable insights into consumer preferences and purchasing attitudes for animal protein, particularly pork products. According to the survey, 70 percent of respondents say that animal diet is extremely or very important to them when purchasing meat, up from 51 percent in 2019. Meat consumers who prefer soy-fed meat say it offers better health, higher quality, greater nutrition and better taste. This research confirms that consumers desire to know more about their meat choices, such as what poultry and livestock consume. The study found three out of four consumers are more likely to purchase meat if it’s raised and fed by U.S. farmers. Even higher than that, the majority of consumers, at 88 percent, are more likely to purchase meat from animals born, bred and raised in the United States. USB commissioned global market research firm Reputation Leaders to survey more than 2,000 U.S. adults online for the study.

USDA Announces New School Lunch Grants

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack Wednesday announced two new grant opportunities plus a training and technical assistance partnership to help schools continue to invest in nutritious school meals. The announcement comes as USDA recognizes National School Lunch Week, as proclaimed by President Biden, and National Farm to School Month. Vilsack says, "USDA is committed to giving students the nutrition they need to reach their full potential by empowering schools to continue serving delicious, healthy meals." USDA is partnering with the Urban School Food Alliance to provide training and tools to school districts to help them purchase high-quality foods while keeping costs low. In addition, two new grant opportunities are opening to support school meals, including USDA's Farm to School Grants, and the School Food Systems Transformation Challenge Sub-Grants. In addition, this month, the Farm to School Program also launched the 2023 Farm to School Census, a periodic survey of school districts’ participation in local procurement and agricultural education activities.

Strong Finish for Q3 Tractor Sales

Unit sales of four-wheel-drive ag tractors experienced a notable upswing in both the U.S. and Canada in September, closing the third quarter of 2023 in a strong position. The latest monthly data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers shows 100-plus two-wheel-drive tractors, and four-wheel-drive tractors grew year-over-year in the United States. Both segments, along with combines, remain positive for the year. Overall unit sales of U.S. tractors are down 4.3 percent compared to sales in September 2022, with 100-plus horsepower two-wheel-drive units being the only other growth segment, while combine sales finished nearly flat, only selling eight fewer units than the previous year. Canadian tractor sales fell nearly 14 percent, with combines declining more than 37 percent. Year to date, at the end of the third quarter of 2023, combine sales overall are positive, up more than 25 percent, while tractors altogether are down just over eight percent in the United States.

Growing Share of Egg-Laying Hens Are Cage-free

Cage-free hens comprise a growing percentage of the U.S. egg-laying flock, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service. The cage-free flock has grown as states have passed and enacted legislation banning confinement of hens, and as multiple retailers and food service providers have pledged to only source eggs from cage-free operations. Additional State bans are planned to take effect between 2023 and 2026. The cage-free egg-laying flock increased by more than 10.5 million hens in the first six months of 2023, according to USDA’s Monthly Cage-Free Shell Egg report. Cage-free hens increased as a proportion of the total U.S. laying flock, expanding from 36 percent in January to 38 percent in June. The non-organic cage-free flock accounted for most of the increase. Meanwhile, in late 2021, cage-free lay rates have been moving mostly above or at similar levels to the lay rates in the overall table egg-laying flock, a departure from the previous trend.

NIFA Invests $1.8 Million in Pest Management Alternatives

USDA's National Institute of Food and Agriculture has invested $1.8 million in four projects as part of the Methyl Bromide Transition Program. Methyl bromide is an odorless, colorless gas previously used in many agricultural and related systems as a soil and structural fumigant to control various pests. However, Methyl bromide depletes the stratospheric ozone layer. As part of the Clean Air Act, the U.S. Government agreed to reduce methyl bromide incrementally from 1991 until the complete phase-out in 2005. The Methyl Bromide Transition Program supports the discovery and implementation of practical pest management alternatives for commodities and uses affected by the methyl bromide phase-out. Funded projects include integrated and Extension-only projects seeking to solve pest problems in key agricultural production and post-harvest management systems, processing facilities, and transport systems for which methyl bromide has been withdrawn or withdrawal is imminent. The 2023 Awardees include Arkansas State University, University of Delaware, Kansas State University and North Carolina State University.

Students Encouraged to Apply for Beef Industry Scholarship

The National Cattlemen’s Foundation is accepting applications for the 2024 CME Group Beef Industry Scholarship. Ten scholarships of $1,500 each will be awarded to outstanding students pursuing careers in the beef industry. Introduced in 1989 and sponsored by CME Group, the scholarship identifies and encourages students who play a vital role in the future of food production. Students studying education, communication, production, research or other areas related to the beef industry are eligible to apply for the annual scholarship program. Eligible applicants must be a graduating high school senior or full-time undergraduate student enrolled at a two- or four-year institution. The application process includes submitting a one-page letter expressing career goals related to the beef industry, a 750-word essay describing an issue in the beef industry and offering solutions to this problem and two letters of recommendation. The applicant or a family member must be a National Cattlemen's Beef Association member. The application deadline is November 10, 2023. For more information and to apply, visit nationalcattlemensfoundation.org.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Thursday is a busy day with U.S. weekly jobless claims due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT, the same time as the consumer price index for September and update of the U.S. Drought Monitor. The U.S. Energy Department's weekly report of natural gas storage is at 9:30 a.m., followed by the weekly report of energy inventories at 10:00 a.m. At 11 a.m., USDA releases its Crop Production and WASDE Reports for October, followed by DTN's WASDE webinar at 12:30 p.m.

Weather

A strong storm system continues to build in the Central Plains Thursday morning. Heavy rain and thunderstorms have formed in a band from Wyoming to Chicago, which will continue to build in this general area and farther north throughout the day. Winds continue to increase in the Plains around the developing low-pressure center, which will be much more significant tonight into Friday as the system tracks eastward. Snow is also likely to mix in over parts of Wyoming and western Nebraska, though accumulation will be difficult. Heavy rain continues to track through the Southeast this morning as well.

Smithfield Foods to Close North Carolina Pork Plant

Smithfield Foods will close its Charlotte, North Carolina, pork-processing plant and transfer production to its Tar Heel, North Carolina, facility. The company says the move is to increase efficiency and better utilize existing capacity, and comes as the company faces “abundant supplies and soft demand” weighing on pork prices. The company will provide financial and other transition assistance to the 107 employees affected by this closure and will meet with employees to discuss options, including transfer to other Smithfield locations. Smithfield will also provide a financial incentive package for hourly employees to remain at Charlotte until the final day of production in December. Smithfield employs nearly 40,000 people in the U.S. and more than 10,000 in North Carolina. The company is not alone, as Tyson Foods announced the shutdown of six chicken processing facilities this year and cut jobs at others in North Carolina.

NARA Launches Organics Recycling Information Campaign

NARA, the North American Renderers Association, just released an infographic on Organics Recycling and How Recycling Food Waste with Rendering Creates Value and Ensures Sustainability. The graphic is an educational tool for those who may not be familiar with the rendering process and the sustainability and economic benefits of rendering food waste. With the passing of Senate Bill 1383 in California in 2022, which requires local governments to collect and recycle organic waste, NARA felt it was critical to release this information publicly. Roughly 50 percent of a meat animal is considered inedible by North Americans. This leaves a lot of leftover material that would end up in landfills and increase greenhouse gas emissions. By diverting this organic meat from landfills and sending it to rendering facilities, it ensures this otherwise wasted material, as well as used cooking oil, is safely, hygienically and sustainably processed into safe and clean rendered material for use in new products – so nothing is wasted. The graphic is available on the NARA website.

World Food Program Launches Gaza, West Bank Humanitarian Efforts

The United Nations World Food Program is deeply concerned by the rapidly deteriorating situation in Israel and Palestine. As the conflict intensifies, civilians, including vulnerable children and families, face mounting challenges in accessing essential food supplies, with food distribution networks disrupted and food production severely hampered by hostilities. The program called for humanitarian corridors on Tuesday as it launched an emergency operation for Gaza and the West Bank. WFP urgently requires access and funding to reach those in need. A total of $17.3 million is needed in the next four weeks to address the situation. On Monday, WFP distributed ready-to-eat food to 73,000 people. Distributions are ongoing daily for displaced people in shelters in Gaza. In the next few days, pending the replenishment of food stocks through the opening of humanitarian corridors, WFP will distribute food to 300,000 people in host communities and make available cash-based-platforms to humanitarian partners.

Delivery Innovation Could Reduce Hunger

Delivery of food may be the way to increase access in rural America, according to a recent report by CoBank. While roughly one in ten Americans faces food insecurity, rural communities are particularly affected. Rural communities comprise 63 percent of all U.S. counties but 87 percent of the counties with the highest rates of food insecurity. Food delivery has become an expected service for many Americans. However, only 37 percent of rural residents have access to major food delivery services. Delivery mechanisms exist, particularly for shelf-stable food and beverage, even if it takes the form of FedEx, UPS or USPS. Fresh food offerings present another challenge altogether, but more direct-to-consumer approaches should, in the long term, be able to capitalize on improvements in technology to reach those who simply don't live near a grocery store. Further, the report suggests that convenience stores, dollar stores and even liquor stores have been considered as possibilities for reducing food insecurity in more rural areas.