U.S. agricultural exports totaled $15.47 billion in January, down slightly from the monthly record of $15.91 billion registered in December. But it still marked a fourth straight month of U.S. ag exports topping $15 billion, something that has not been seen based on data going back to the 1970s.
Ag imports rose to $12.83 billion, a new record, and up from $11.65 billion in December. That left a trade surplus of $2.65 billion for January.
So far in Fiscal Year (FY) 2021, U.S. ag exports total $62.05 billion against imports of $47.46 billion for a surplus so far of $14.59 billion. USDA is currently forecasting FY 2021 ag exports at $157 billion and imports at a record $137.5 billion which would leave a trade surplus of $19.5 billion.
The situation with ag exports clearly reflects China's stepped-up purchases (and shipments) of U.S. ag goods and has translated into U.S. ag exports above $15 billion for four straight months.
But the rise in imports to a new record has come earlier than usual — typically the high-water marks for imports come during the March-May timeframe.
That suggests expectations are that the monthly trade data ahead will see the gap between export and import values continue to narrow.