The USDA Outlook Forum is in virtual form this year, with USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer laying out the economic landscape for the agricultural sector. He noted the rebuilding of the Chinese hog herd as a factor in markets, including corn and soybeans.
For corn, Meyer detailed, “What we have seen, though, in China, and what has sparked this big import of corn has been the spread between internal prices for corn in China and what corn prices are elsewhere in the world.” He put the difference in price at round $150 per metric ton.
He also said the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) will not be a limit on Chinese corn imports.
For 2021 U.S. planted acreage, he said USDA sees corn planting at 92 million acres and soybeans at 90 million for a combined 182 million acres, a record. For wheat, Meyer said that USDA sees a “small rise” in wheat area for 2021 to 45 million acres. He also noted that winter wheat harvested area is a “question.” He also said USDA sees cotton plantings at 12 million.
USDA sees season average prices for corn at $4.20 per bushel, soybeans at $11.25 per bushel and wheat at $5.50 per bushel in their respective 2021-22 marketing years, Meyer said, while the agency expects higher prices forecast compared with 2020 for live cattle at $115 per cwt., hogs at $50.50 per cwt., and broilers at 84.5 cents per pound.
But to hit the price marks, he said there needs to be “robust domestic demand and solid exports.” Interestingly, Meyer commented on the Food Box program, noting a question is if USDA maintains the program.
Overall U.S. agricultural exports in Fiscal Year (FY) are now seen at a record $157 billion against imports at a record $137.5 billion for a trade surplus of $19.5 billion. That would be $17 billion higher than FY 2020 and the biggest trade black ink since FY 2017 when it was $21.1 billion