U.S. ag exports to China in Fiscal Year FY) 2021 are forecast to rise to $18.5 billion, up from $14 billion in FY 2020, a forecast that USDA raised by $1 billion from its prior outlook.
China factors into increases for several commodities, including sorghum, wheat and soybeans, according to USDA.
Note that the FY basis (October/September) is not on the same as the Phase One agreement — a calendar year. U.S. ag exports to China in so far in FY 2020 (through June) were at $11.113 billion, USDA noted, up sharply from $6.753 billion at that point in FY 2019.
Overall U.S. ag exports in FY 2021 are forecast at $140.5 billion against imports of what would be a new record of $136 billion, leaving a trade surplus of $4.5 billion.
As expected, USDA lowered its outlook for FY 2020 U.S. ag exports, trimming it by $1.5 billion to $135 billion, while raising imports by $1.5 billion to a new record of $131.7 billion.
That would leave a trade surplus of just $3.3 billion, the smallest since it was $2.31 billion in FY 1972. The trade levels were considerably different in FY 1972 — ag exports totaled $8.24 billion against imports of $5.94 billion.
The updated FY 2020 forecast suggests USDA expects exports of $32.8 billion over the July-September period with imports of $31.2 billion.
Welcome
