USDA officials from Secretary Sonny Perdue on down have continued to insist there is no shortage of food in the country despite shoppers seeing empty store shelves in grocery stores.
“We have sufficient quantities to not only feed our country but maintain robust exports even in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic,” said USDA Chief Economist Rob Johansson in a blog post. Pointing to forecasts from USDA’s WASDE and data on supplies in cold storage, Johansson said the figures show an “adequate domestic supply of meat, eggs and dairy products to meet immediate demand.” Noting that meat packing plans are considered essential industry infrastructure, Johansson said, “according to the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS), the USDA agency responsible for regulating meat processors, closures of facilities regulated by the agency due to the disease outbreak have been limited, and temporary. Similarly, wheat and rice mills, which generally are not labor-intensive operations, have not had any significant disruptions.”
He acknowledged there is less certainty on the import side which the U.S. relies on for about 15% of total food consumption. While shortages in supplies from countries hit by COVID-19 could cause shortages and higher prices here, Johansson said, “industry and news reports on trade flows suggest that even countries heavily affected by COVID-19 spread, continue to ship food products and that there are no immediate risks of massive disruptions in the global supply chain.”
The rise in demand at the retail (grocery) level has led to some shortages, but he noted that “over the next few weeks, as retailers restock their shelves and demand from overstocked consumers decline, we will see fewer empty shelves and prices should stabilize or even decline.” But he concluded the situation is one for steady to lower prices ahead. “So overall, the supply and demand factors at play point to stable if not lower market prices in the next few weeks,” Johansson said.
As for uncertainties, he noted that consumer demand trends and the response by farmers and companies to the changing market conditions remain a source of uncertainty.
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