Increased values for U.S. pork, soybean and dairy exports helped fuel an increase in the forecast for U.S. agricultural exports for Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 with another record seen for U.S. ag imports, according to USDA.
China remains a prominent factor in the U.S. agricultural export outlook. U.S. soybean exports are forecast to total $18 billion in FY 2020, up from USDA’s prior forecast they would be valued at $16.8 billion. The updated FY 2020 outlook is above the FY 2019 level of $16.9 billion, but shy of the FY 2018 mark of $21.7 billion. However, soybean export volumes for FY 2020 are seen holding at 48.3 million metric tons, down from 56.9 million metric tons in FY 2019.
The value of U.S. pork exports is seen at $6.7 billion, up $400 million from the prior outlook at sharply higher than the FY 2019 result of $5.5 billion. China is also a factor in that outlook, with USDA noting the rise is “largely due to demand from China.”
U.S. ag imports are now put at $132 billion, up from $129 billion and above the record of $131 billion in FY 2019. Imports also set new records in FY 2017 ($119.1 billion) and FY 2018 ($127.5 billion).
Much of the increase is seen for fresh fruits and vegetables and grain products, USDA said. “Fresh fruit imports are raised $1.7 billion to $15 billion, largely due to increased deliveries of avocados, berries, and melons from Mexico,” USDA detailed.
The aforementioned export and import forecasts would result in a trade balance of $7 billion, one billion less than USDA expected in August, but up from the $4.5 billion mark in FY 2019, the smallest U.S. ag trade black ink since FY 2006.
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