US Ag Export Continue to Struggle

U.S. agricultural exports in January totaled $11.929 billion against imports of $11.365 billion for a trade surplus of $564 million. The export figure reflected a rise from December when exports were valued at $11.277 billion while imports also moved up from a December mark of $10.680 billion for a $597 million surplus. The totals also marked stronger export and import values compared to January 2018 and the trade balance was wider than the $305 million in January 2018, the smallest trade surplus of Fiscal Year (FY) 2018. The January data means after the first four months of FY 2019, exports are off more than $3 billion compared to the same period in FY 2018. Similarly, import values are up more than $4 billion over the year-ago four-month period. So far in FY 2019, the U.S. ag trade surplus totals $4.313 billion compared with $8.932 billion at this stage of FY 2018. FY 2018 saw U.S. agriculture register five months with trade surpluses of $1 billion or more, including three months to open the FY. This year, U.S. agriculture was only able to put together two months in a row with an ag trade surplus of $1 billion or more. That suggests U.S. agriculture could well struggle to meet the USDA export forecast of $141.5 billion against imports of $128 billion for a surplus of $13.5 billion.