Perdue: Remove Tariffs to Pass USMCA

Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue used a football analogy to describe the process of passing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. He calls passage more of a “field goal” than a touchdown. Perdue says the reason for the difficulty is the administration hasn’t yet removed the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from two key North American trading partners. Perdue tells reporters this week that he’ll consider it a “touchdown, a more certain success when we get those tariffs removed.” When the trade pact negotiations were moving along smoothly, Canada and Mexico were exempt from the tariffs. However, when things stalled, that exemption came to an end. As was expected, Mexico and Canada both hit back with retaliatory tariffs. Mexican tariffs have hit American agriculture hard on cheese, pork, apples, and potatoes. Perdue says the tariffs need to go as they accomplished the goal of getting Mexico and Canada to the negotiating table. “Once you’ve achieved your goals with the tariffs, then it’s probably time to look at other ways,” Perdue says. He realizes that the tariffs remain a thorn in the process of getting the deal ratified in all three countries.

Ag Labor Fix is Tough to Predict

Lawmakers and agriculture industry groups met face-to-face on Capitol Hill this week to discuss the serious labor shortage facing American farmers. They discussed the possibility of a comprehensive legislative package that would ease the chronic problem by legalizing undocumented workers and supporting a steady influx of laborers from other countries. Washington state Representative Dan Newhouse took part in a panel discussion, saying, “This isn’t something we have the luxury of time to take to solve. This is hurting our industry as we speak.” There are two ag labor bills that have been introduced so far this session. They would take care of parts of the broader issue. However, a comprehensive fix has yet to appear. Senate Ag Chair Pat Roberts still thinks a bipartisan solution to the problem is possible. “If we can figure out a combination here that makes sense, I think we can sell this,” Roberts says. Politico says the effort to solve the problem could get a boost from President Trump. At the American Farm Bureau national convention last month, the president said he would be pushing for legislation to make the process of hiring more guest workers easier for farmers to accomplish.

State Ag Departments Want Hemp Standards, USMCA Approval

The National Association of State Departments of Agriculture held its winter meeting this week in Virginia. The organization adopted new policies they’d like to see put in place. The Hagstrom Report says NASDA is looking for new policies at the federal level encouraging uniformity among states in hemp regulations. For example, a lack of uniformity in field-sampling standards could cause potential problems in hemp crossing state lines. NASDA is asking the Food and Drug Administration to work with states and develop a model regulatory framework to oversee hemp processing, as well as the manufacturing of hemp-based products. The organization also adopted a policy of asking Congress and President Trump to work together to ensure that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement is successfully ratified and implemented. They want the Section 232 tariffs the Trump Administration imposed on Mexico and Canada removed. Association CEO Barb Glenn says, “To provide certainty for North American farmers and ranchers businesses, urgency must be applied to ratifying USMCA.” She says it’s also critical that the administration removes the Section 232 tariffs. That way, farmers and ranchers can realize net improvements in market access and the benefits that USMCA was negotiated to provide.

Commerce Department to Review Argentina’s Biodiesel Subsidies

The National Biodiesel Board wrote a letter to a group of 14 senators and thanked them for asking Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to be transparent in the upcoming review of U.S. duties on Argentine biodiesel imports. The department launched what’s called a “changed circumstances” review of those duties. The senators are asking Commerce to develop a complete record of Argentina biodiesel trade actions before they determine if another look at the U.S. import duties is warranted. In the letter, the senators say, “It’s unclear why Commerce would afford a special review to Argentina and its biodiesel industry when the ink on the anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders is barely dry.” They also point out that in the short period since the antidumping and countervailing duty orders were imposed, U.S. biodiesel producers have been able to compete on a more level playing field and the U.S. biodiesel industry has begun to recover from the injury caused by the unfair trade practices of the Argentinian government and biodiesel industry. Kurt Kovarik, NBB Vice President of Federal Affairs, says, “NBB and its members appreciate the leadership of the senators who raised concerns about fair trade with Secretary Ross. Over the past two years, Argentina has made more than a dozen changes to its export tax rates and continued to massively subsidize its biodiesel industry.”

USMEF Wants Level Playing Field in Japan

Japan is an important trading partner for U.S. agriculture, especially when it comes to beef and pork producers. That was the main topic of a panel discussion during the recent USDA Outlook Forum. USMEF Economist Erin Borror says that Japan is the leading value destination for both U.S. beef and pork. 2018 exports are expected to reach $2.1 billion and $1.65 billion, respectively when year-end data is available. She also warns that the competitive terrain in Japan has gotten much steeper for U.S. exports. That’s because of Japan’s potential trade agreements with Australia, the European Union, Canada, New Zealand, Mexico, and Chile. That situation will only get worse unless the United States can establish similar access to Japanese markets. The U.S. beef export value per head of fed slaughter averaged a record $320.72 in 2018, shattering the previous high of $300.36 that was set in 2014. Japan accounts for one-fourth of that total at $82.75 a head. That ratio is similar for U.S. pork, which averaged $51.46 per head slaughtered in 2018. Japan accounted for 26 percent of the total per-head value.

Glyphosate in the Courts

A Reuters report says officials working at a health agency in Brazil have found that glyphosate does not cause cancer. The timing is interesting in that a jury in San Francisco Federal Court is about to decide soon whether or not glyphosate in Roundup caused a man’s cancer diagnosis. This is the trial that will likely influence the outcomes of hundreds of other similar trial cases. The opening statements in the Edwin Hardeman suit against Monsanto, the manufacturer of Roundup, took place on Monday. The 70-year-old man is the second plaintiff to take Monsanto to court out of potentially thousands who will follow. A San Francisco jury awarded a separate man $289 million after determining that Roundup caused his non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Meanwhile, the U.S. Public Interest Research Group did tests that found glyphosate in samples of popular brands of beer and wine. The group found glyphosate in 19 of the 20 brands it tested, but it did say that the levels found were all below the amount that could cause harm to humans.

Economists Say Data Does Not Show Farm Economy In Crisis

OMAHA (DTN) -- As complaints about financial stress for farmers rise, some economists say the data doesn't show today's farm economy is in a crisis. Joe Glauber, a former USDA chief economist, and Vincent Smith, an economics professor at Montana State University, co-authored an op-ed for Dow Jones news service that challenges the argument that American farmers are facing a crisis. Glauber and Smith are both visiting scholars at the American Enterprise Institute. In the op-ed piece published Tuesday, Glauber and Smith challenged media portrayals of farmers struggling to make ends meet, stating: "The plight of American farmers always makes for good copy, even when the facts don't match the rhetoric. And when media reports suggest that farmers are about to face a financial crisis, based on one or two pieces of cherry-picked data, farm interest groups rush to Congress to ask for more subsidies, on top of the $20 billion a year already being given to crop growers." The op-ed comes as the National Farmers Union called on Congress and Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue to improve the safety net for farmers. NFU noted more farmers "are facing significant financial stress." The economists claim farm groups are willing to use "hyped information about farm bankruptcies" to push arguments for more commodity support. The op-ed points out "... Groups representing corn, soybeans, wheat, pulses and cotton growers have all complained of inadequate subsidies in recent months." Still, a broader look at economics shows there is no crisis, the economists stated. Farm bankruptcies are higher than they were a decade ago, but bankruptcy filings in 2018 were lower than 2010 and 2011 and about the same as 2012. The number of farm businesses has remained relatively stable since the 1980s. This back and forth about the state of the agricultural economy comes as Perdue prepares to testify Wednesday before the House Agriculture Committee on his take on the state of the farm economy. Perdue also testifies Thursday on farm bill implementation to the Senate Agriculture Committee. LOW BANKRUPTCY NUMBERS Nathan Kauffman, vice president and Omaha branch executive for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, highlighted bankruptcy data last week at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. Delinquency rates for farmers rose to 4% in 2010, coming off the 2008-09 recession, despite stronger farm income that year, Kauffman pointed out. At the moment, delinquency rates are closer to 2%. Kauffman noted the higher delinquency rates and bankruptcies in 2010 occurred in the middle of biofuel expansion and growing demand from China. Further, more than 700 farmers filed Chapter 12 bankruptcies in 2010, but the total is closer to 500 today. "Even though there's been a slight uptick in bankruptcies the last couple of years, it was much more notable coming out of the recession than it has been coming out of this relatively long downturn in agriculture," Kauffman said. Broad changes in macroeconomic conditions can significantly affect every industry in the economy. Kauffman pointed out risks to farmers because of projected declines in global growth. The International Monetary Fund reduced its forecast for the global economy for 2019 from 3.9% growth to 3.5% growth. There are also concerns about the status of U.S. trade policy and the prospect of rising interest rates.

Commerce Secretary Ross Floats Hope for Spring USMCA Approval

While most U.S. officials are not willing to put any timeline on the potential approval of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is not one of them. He told a gathering of U.S. governors Monday afternoon that the USMCA would get a vote in Congress “hopefully this spring” — and he pledged the Trump administration would work to ensure its approval. “It will generate a new era of North American investment,” he said. “And we will be doing everything in our power to make sure it is approved by the U.S. Congress.” However, the presence of the steel and aluminum import duties on Mexico and Canada and their retaliatory responses against U.S. products, including agricultural goods, has many in Congress reluctant to support the deal at this stage. Plus, the administration has yet to provide the implementing legislation to Congress, a step that must precede the eventual up-or-down vote in Congress with no amendments allowed.

Washington Insider The US Assault on the WTO

While many of the world’s trade policy concerns now feature the U.S.-China dispute and the border wall fight, Bloomberg is reporting that there is more. The administration’s attack on the World Trade Organization “has U.S. farmers worried that the president’s ‘America first’ foreign policy approach will hamstring efforts to defend their interests.” The report says that the United States is “strangling the ability of the WTO, which oversees the rules for nearly $23 trillion in commerce every year, to resolve disputes among its 164 members.” But when the WTO’s appellate body becomes incapacitated, as it may later this year, even the U.S. cases – of which there are at least two pending meant to protect American agriculture – would be derailed. “The entire global trading system and the WTO dispute resolution process have been good for U.S. agriculture,” Ben Conner, the vice president of policy at the Washington-based US Wheat Associates, told Bloomberg. If the two U.S. claims are appealed, they “could be among the first to get stuck in legal limbo without a functioning appellate body.” Bloomberg noted that ag has become “a contentious political issue given Trump’s strong support in farm states,” as global players such as China and the European Union use their huge consumption of American commodities as leverage in negotiations. The trade war has led the USDA to predict that farm exports will fall by $3 billion in 2019 and caused the Trump administration to authorize a $12 billion aid package to help farmers affected by the dispute. The context of the report is the decision by the administration to withhold appointments to the WTO’s appellate body to protest what it says are abuses by the dispute settlement authority. The seven-member panel has been reduced to three, the minimum number required to hear an appeal. The panel won’t have sufficient members to consider new rulings after Dec. 10. The WTO is one of several fronts in the administration’s assault on the global trading system that the president argues is tilted against American interests. The Trump administration is locked in negotiations with Beijing aimed at extracting concessions to reduce the US trade deficit with China. He’s also threatened to put tariffs on imports of cars and parts that economists warn would disrupt an international auto industry that spent decades building global supply chains. The Geneva-based WTO is expected to issue decisions this year on two U.S. dispute cases that allege Beijing deployed $100 billion worth of illegal farm subsidies and imposed unfair import quotas that harm US corn, rice and wheat producers. Both cases are “pretty much slam dunks” for the U.S., Jennifer Hillman, a former WTO judge who now teaches trade law at Georgetown University, told Bloomberg. “We really have to fix the appellate body now,” she said. Without it you may “lose the ability to collect your winnings because there won’t be a binding way to force other countries to come into compliance.” A ruling against China in either case could force Beijing to reform its agricultural policies – something that could help make America’s farmers become more competitive. “If we win those cases, we would expect China to appeal,” said Floyd Gaibler, the director of trade policy for the Washington-based U.S. Grains Council. That would leave the status of those claims uncertain and “we are very concerned about this,” he said. In 2017, China imported a total $24.2 billion in American agricultural products. Combined purchases slumped by a third to about $16 billion last year as China’s retaliatory tariffs on American farm goods reduced imports. The administration’s message to farmers is “to be patient and be patriotic – but they are getting very concerned and anxious that they are not seeing an end to this,” Hillman said. Lawmakers like Representative Kevin Brady, R-Texas, are urging the Trump administration to fix the WTO’s dispute settlement problems rather than precipitate its paralysis. “We want that appellate body dispute resolution approach, we want that to work,” Brady said recently in in Washington. “And we need to make reforms to do that.” It is unlikely that the administration will ever be a fan of the WTO or its dispute settlement system, but the international trade regulations are widely perceived as very important to several sectors of the U.S. economy – and pressure to achieve reforms without abandoning the basic structure likely will be intense. This is an important issue that producers should continue to watch closely as this fight intensifies, Washington Insider believes.

Bayer AG Says 1900 More Plaintiffs Suing Over Last Three Months

Bayer AG on Wednesday said the number of plaintiffs suing the German company over its weed killers had risen by another 1,900 over the last three months. The legal battle has cast a cloud over the chemicals and pharmaceuticals group's prospects that analysts say could take months, if not years to dissipate. Bayer said as of late January it faced a total of 11,200 plaintiffs claiming weed killers containing the chemical glyphosate cause cancer, compared with 9,300 at the end of October. Bayer has rejected the allegations, arguing that there are numerous studies that demonstrate the safety of glyphosate and its products. "We have the science on our side and will continue to vigorously defend this important and safe herbicide for modern and sustainable farming," Chief Executive Werner Baumann said. The latest increase in plaintiffs coincides with the second such case starting trial this week in what is set to be a yearslong fight for Bayer to try to clear its name and the most expensive acquisition in its 155 year-old history. Bayer splashed out $63 billion last year to transform itself into the world's largest maker of seeds and pesticides from a predominantly pharmaceuticals company by acquiring U.S. agriculture giant Monsanto Co. But the company has been scrambling to win back investors' trust since that takeover also plunged it into a large and potentially costly legal battle over the world's most widely used herbicide. Bayer's share price has been caught in a downward spiral, losing some 30% since Monsanto in August lost the first case on trial, despite a judge later reducing the jury award to $78.5 million from $289.2 million. Bayer is appealing the verdict. Seven trials are currently scheduled for 2019, the company said Wednesday. While all eyes are on the court cases as analysts and investors look for more clarity on the outcome of the litigation, Bayer is busy implementing a sweeping restructuring plan to shore up its finances and fix problems the company has been facing in its other divisions, namely pharmaceuticals and consumer health. Bayer swung to a net loss of EUR3.92 billion ($4.46 billion) in the fourth quarter from a profit of EUR148 million a year ago, due mainly to EUR3.3 billion in impairment charges and write-offs for consumer health brands the company is in the process of selling and a pharmaceuticals plant in Germany they are closing, which were flagged late last year. Costs to finance the Monsanto acquisition also weighed down net profit. Sales in the quarter rose to EUR11.06 billion from EUR8.6 billion a year ago. Sales were boosted by the integration of Monsanto into the crop-science division as well as pharmaceuticals and animal health while consumer health still dragged. Bayer in November announced plans to cut 10% of its global workforce, sell its animal health unit and underperforming consumer brands Dr. Scholl's foot care and Coppertone sunscreens. Management said the plans have nothing to do with the glyphosate lawsuits but people familiar with the company say the plan is also a way to demonstrate that the company has its operational business under control. Shares in Bayer rose in early trade Wednesday as analysts said sales beat expectations. Analysts however predict shares will remain under pressure until more cases have been tried in court to give a sense of how big a financial burden the litigation could or couldn't become for Bayer. Analysts say the current share price assumes a negative outcome of the litigation, with total costs projected to reach somewhere between EUR5 billion and EUR10 billion. Bayer hasn't booked provisions for potential plaintiff payouts for defense costs.

Trump Budget Proposal to Include USDA Cuts

The Trump 2020 budget proposal will include “big cuts” to the Department of Agriculture, according to Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue. The budget request will propose cutting non-defense programs by five percent. However, Politico reports USDA is likely to face steeper budget cuts. Perdue noted that Congress usually disregards the president’s budget request, which in recent years has unsuccessfully called for cuts to USDA. Perdue says he would like to see the process return to a negotiation between the president and Congress, saying: “It’s like buying and selling a piece of land. You’ve got to get within the realm of negotiation there for people to take you seriously in that regard.” The Trump administration has previously proposed large cuts to crop insurance, agriculture research and rural development. Perdue says the budget will be conservative, but speaking of his team, says “we’ve done our best to advocate for farmers.”

Coalition Asks Congress to Safeguard Crop Insurance

A coalition of more than 50 farm groups is asking lawmakers to safeguard crop insurance. The organizations, including the American Farm Bureau Federation, warned in a letter to top-ranking House and Senate budget leaders this week that "An overreliance on budget savings from the agriculture community and from crop insurance will unquestionably undermine rural economies." 2018 farm profitability is expected to hit a low not experienced in more than a decade. The groups also noted the public-private partnership of crop insurance has been a consistent and reliable risk management tool for farmers, particularly at a time of heightened uncertainty in agriculture caused by natural disasters, trade disputes and government shutdowns. The letter says farmers and lawmakers “agree that crop insurance is a linchpin of the farm safety net” and is crucial to the economic and food security of rural America. The groups concluded the letter urging lawmakers to oppose cuts to crop insurance during this year’s budget process.

USMCA Coalition Launched to Promote Trade Agreement

A group of industry and agriculture companies and associations have launched the USMCA Coalition, an effort to see the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement through ratification. The USMCA Coalition is a collection of more than 200 organizations, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the American Farm Bureau Federation, and the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, with an objective "to secure congressional approval” of the trade agreement. AEM President Dennis Slater says completing the trade agreement will "guarantee North America's manufacturing competitiveness" and support 1.5 million jobs across the U.S. and Canada. Equipment manufacturers contribute $188 billion combined to the U.S. and Canadian economies. Canada is the largest export market for U.S. manufacturers of heavy equipment and a more than $10 billion per year export market for U.S. equipment manufacturers. Meanwhile, U.S. agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico quadrupled from $8.9 billion in 1993 to $39 billion in 2017, according to AFBF, and the two countries are top markets for U.S. grains, dairy products, meats fresh fruits, and vegetables.

U.S. Asks China for Lower Ethanol Tariffs

The U.S. has asked China to lower tariffs on ethanol imports as part of the ongoing talks between the two nations. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue Tuesday confirmed the U.S. request, saying “we would certainly love below 15 percent,” tariff levels, but did not say what level the U.S. asking for, according to Reuters. Last summer, through the tit-for-tat trade war, China imposed retaliatory tariffs of up to 70 percent on U.S. ethanol shipments. It’s also unclear how receptive China is to the U.S. request, but Perdue says the two sides are “engaged in conversation.” Perdue says several other agriculture issues are “on the table” in the trade talks, including poultry access, issues over beef exports, feed grains, ethanol and distillers grains. Meanwhile, President Trump delayed a planned March tariff increase on Chinese goods, also seen as a deadline for the talks to conclude.

Farm Credit 2018 Income Even with 2017

The Farm Credit System this week reported combined net income of $5.3 billion for 2018, as compared with $5.2 billion for the prior year. The system also reported combined net income of $1.3 billion for the fourth quarter of 2018, as compared with $1.5 billion for the fourth quarter of 2017. Tracey McCabe, President and CEO of the Federal Farm Credit Banks Funding Corporation, says earnings for the year “continued to reflect strong financial performance by system institutions.” Combined net income increased $143 million or 2.8 percent for 2018, as compared with the prior year. The increase resulted primarily from increases in net interest income of $264 million and noninterest income of $92 million, partially offset by increases in noninterest expense of $128 million and the provision for income taxes of $88 million. Net interest income increased $264 million or 3.4 percent to $8.0 billion for 2018, as compared with $7.7 billion for the prior year.

Organic Spirits Company Announces Fund for Farmers

Prairie Organic Spirits has launched its Spirit of Change Fund that will commit one percent of sales to support the next generation of organic farmers and to help transition more conventional farmland to organic. The company is self-proclaimed as the nation’s leading organic spirits brand. Through the initiative, Prairie Organic is seeking to increase sales of organic spirits to equal five percent of all alcohol category sales. By achieving the goal, the company claims approximately 8.0 million acres of conventional farmland would be converted to organic and approximately 7.4 million pounds of pesticides would go unused annually. Organic alcohol sales make up less than one percent of total sales, while organic food and beverage sales are roughly five percent of the U.S. total. Through the fund, Prairie Organic will provide ten scholarships for interns accepted into the Rodale Institute’s Next Generation Scholarship Program, which provides practical, hands-on organic agriculture knowledge and skills to future organic farmers.

Montana Farm Bureau Foundation holds speech contest

Montana Farm Bureau Foundation is holding its annual Youth Speech Contest in conjunction with the Montana FFA State Convention, April 3-6, 2019 in Bozeman. One of the MFB Foundation's most important goals is to aid in the agricultural education and the leadership development of Montana's youth. This speech contest fits that goal well and MFBF is offering great prizes to make this an exciting opportunity. The Youth Speech Contest is open to students in the 7th, 8th and 9th grades who are not able to participate in the State FFA Prepared Speech Contest. FFA members, 4-H members and any other student in Montana are eligible to enter the contest. Speech topic: Montana Farm Bureau celebrates its 100th year as a farm and ranch organization in 2019. What are the biggest challenges the agricultural industry will face in the next 100 years? How can Farm Bureau help address those challenges? What can you do to help address the challenges facing agriculture? The prepared speech needs to be between 2.5 - 4 minutes in length. Contestants must submit a transcript of their speech by March 15, 2019. Those will be judged prior to the FFA State Convention and the top 20 contestants will be invited to compete during the event. Prizes: 1st place = $400; 2nd = $300; 3rd = $200; 4th = $100; 5th = $50. Registration and a copy of the student’s speech must be received by the Montana Farm Bureau Federation office by March 15, 2019. For more information contact Scott Kulbeck, 406-587-3153, scottk@mfbf.org.

Gianforte’s Bipartisan Public Lands Measures Pass House

WASHINGTON – Today, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a public lands package that includes two measures important to Montana that Congressman Greg Gianforte championed and led. The Natural Resources Management Act passed the House with a bipartisan vote of 363-62. The bill includes the permanent reauthorization of the Land and Water Conservation Fund (LWCF) and a permanent withdrawal of mineral rights on public land north of Yellowstone National Park. “Permanently protecting the gateway to Yellowstone and permanently reauthorizing the LWCF will help preserve and expand public access to our public lands. I strongly urge passage of this bill that’s so important to Montana,” Gianforte said, as he addressed colleagues ahead of the vote.

Study Suggests Loss Of Generic Cheese Names Could Cost US Farmers

A new study by Informa Agribusiness Consulting suggests that the loss of the use of generic cheese names could cost U.S. farmers $9.5 to $20.2 billion over the first three years. The loss of the use of these names, technically known as geographic indications (GI), is currently being negotiated by the European Union with a number of countries. The new study, commissioned by the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) and the Consortium for Common Food Names, finds farm gate milk prices could fall by 97¢ to $2.14/cwt in just the first three years, leading to the $9.5 to $20.2 billion in revenue losses. Over 10 years, the cumulative revenue losses could exceed $70 billion dollars. The loss in the U.S. dairy herd size would range from 460,000 to 740,000 cows. U.S. imports of GI-labeled cheeses are likely to increase by 13%. “The European Union has repeatedly targeted the U.S. dairy industry by undermining our ability to freely use generic cheese names in foreign markets,” says Tom Vilsack, USDEC chairman and CEO. “Failing to confront the European’s aggression will have a serious impact on the United States’ ability to continue to expand exports, negating the important progress dairy has made towards securing The Next 5 Percent.” The Next 5 Percent is an industry-wide initiative to increase U.S. dairy export volume from its current level of about 15% of the U.S. milk supply to 20%. The effort is focused both on expanding already existing markets and opening new markets for U.S. dairy products.

February Rural Mainstreet Index Declines

The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index for February fell but remained above growth neutral. The monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state Midwest region dependent on agriculture and energy sank to 50.2 from January's 51.5. This was the 11th time in the past 12 months the index has remained above growth neutral. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral. Organizers of the survey say weak farm income has pushed almost two-thirds of banks to increase collateral requirements on farm loans. Ernie Goss of Creighton University says the survey shows the rural economy is "expanding outside of agriculture," however, the negative impacts of tariffs and low agriculture commodity prices continue to weaken the farm sector." Almost two-thirds of respondents, or 62.6 percent, indicated collateral requirements have been raised on farm loans. This compares to 45.2 percent for February 2018. Almost one-third, or 30.3 percent of bankers, reported that a higher percentage of farm loan applications had been rejected.

EPA to Study Ethanol Impact on Air Quality

The Environmental Protection Agency will conduct a long-delayed study to assess the impact ethanol-blended fuels have on air quality. Reuters reports the EPA agreed to conduct the study late last week, as the Sierra Club had filed a lawsuit against the EPA last year in an effort to compel the agency to conduct the study. The organization states the study was supposed to be done roughly eight years ago. The Sierra Club and the EPA recently reached a partial agreement resulting in the EPA conducting the so-called anti-backsliding study by March of next year. The outcome of the study seems certain to influence future Renewable Fuel Standard regulations set by the EPA, including annual targets for ethanol and biodiesel use in the nations fuel supply. The Sierra Club is a well-known critic of the RFS. An association fact sheet claims that since the standard’s adoption in 2007, “it has become clear that the RFS has had unintended and devastating consequences for wildlife and wildlife habitat, and may even be undermining its own stated goals.”

Pence Promises Passage of Infrastructure Bill

Vice President Mike Pence last week promised a gathering of governors in Washington, D.C. the U.S. would pass a “historic” infrastructure bill by the end of next year. The Washington Post reports the action would require bipartisan cooperation. Specifically, Pence told the group "I'll make you a promise," while asking for help from the governors, that "in this Congress, we're going to pass historic infrastructure legislation." President Trump campaigned on addressing infrastructure and proposed a plan to create $1.5 trillion in new spending on infrastructure issues, including those in rural areas. However, the plan has so far been stalled. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi did identify infrastructure as a priority for Congress, but Democrats and Republicans have different plans in mind. More than 30 governors across the nation attending the National Governors Association annual meeting attended the Pence event. Pence told the governors new legislation is being discussed and that state governors will play a leading voice in crafting the bill.

Iowa Appealing Federal Ruling Against Ag-gag Rule

Iowa is appealing a federal court ruling against the state's ‘ag-gag' rule. Iowa attorney general Tim Miller filed the appeal against a federal ruling deeming the regulation unconstitutional. The rule has been in effect since 2012 and made it illegal for activists to lie to gain access to livestock operations and shoot unauthorized video, according to meat industry publication Meatingplace. The 2012 law was aimed at preventing activists from gaining access to farms and packing plants on false pretenses in order to videotape and publicize potentially unflattering activity, but a federal judge ruled that the law hinders free speech. In filing the appeal, Miller says the defendants "submit there is substantial ground for difference of opinion" as to whether law restricts protected speech in violation of the First Amendment. Miller says the Supreme Court has held “false speech” that imposes a legally recognized harm or provides a material gain to the speaker is not protected under the First Amendment.

U.S., Canada and Mexico Taking Measures to Prevent Swine Fever Spread

The United States, Canada and Mexico are seeking measures to prevent the spread of African swine fever to North America. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue told Reuters “it’s important that we function together as one,” in speaking on the effort to keep the disease from spreading. African swine fever has spread through China’s hog populations and parts of Europe, sparking fear of further spread globally. Market analysts say if the disease spreads to the United States, it could curb shipments in the $6.5 billion export market for American pork. The highly contagious disease can cause death for hogs in just two days. The disease is not harmful to humans, but there is no vaccine for hogs and transmission of the disease can occur easily through contact between animals, or through contaminated feed, and even humans traveling from a contaminated site to an uncontaminated site.

Milk Producers File Petition Over Label Issue

The National Milk Producers Federation last week filed a citizen petition with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, outlining a labeling solution to the use of dairy terms on non-dairy products as the agency considers public input from a recently concluded comment period. The petition reinforces current FDA labeling regulations, with some additional clarification, to show how marketplace transparency can be enhanced and consumer harm from confusion over nutritional content can be reduced, according to NMPF. Federation Executive Vice President Tom Balmer says the petitions “lays out a constructive solution to the false and misleading labeling practices existing in the marketplace today.” In its petition, NMPF urges FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb to “Take prompt enforcement action against misbranded non-dairy foods that substitute for and resemble reference standardized dairy foods.” The petition also points to long-standing rules that provide for using the words “substitute” or “alternative” in conjunction with a dairy term when such products are deemed nutritionally equivalent to the dairy products they reference.

Farm Groups Submit Joint Comments on Canadian Clean Fuel Standard

Growth Energy, the U.S. Grains Council, and Renewable Fuels Association last week jointly submitted comments to Environment and Climate Change Canada, supporting their goal of reducing the carbon intensity of Canada's fuel stream through the Clean Fuel Standard. The comments offered recommendations on how biofuels, like ethanol, can help reach Canada reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 23 megatons by 2030. The comments state the groups “believe that by using low carbon biofuels such as ethanol, Canada can succeed in its own greenhouse gas reduction goals." The comments suggested expanding the current minimum blending requirement for biofuels from five percent to ten percent nationwide. They also highlighted the importance of ensuring that the biofuels regulations put in place focus on promoting economic growth and securing a pathway to meeting Canada's climate goals. These include improving upstream fossil fuel protocols on exports, limiting abuse of compliance flexibility, and allowing public comment and review of carbon intensity models.

NCBA Applauds Dietary Guidelines Committee Appointees

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association applauds the appointments to the 2020 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee. NCBA President Jennifer Houston says the committee members and the process is “firmly grounded in the best available science and will ultimately result in nutritional policy that can measurably improve the health of Americans.” Houston notes members of the committee are “leading experts in their field.” The committee members use and evaluate scientific evidence to make recommendations on what constitutes a healthy diet. The Department of Agriculture announced the appointments of 20 scientists to serve on the committee last week. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue says the committee will “evaluate existing research and develop a report objectively, with an open mind.” The committee’s work will kick off at a public meeting to be announced in the coming weeks. The list of members appointed to the expert committee can be found at DietaryGuidelines.gov.

Study Shows Value to Corn Producers Through Meat

A new study from the National Corn Growers Association and U.S. Meat Export Federation shows the value of red meat exports to domestic U.S. corn growers. The original study was conducted in 2015. In 2018, the study showed beef and pork exports used a combined total of 14.9 million tons of corn and DDGS, which equates to an additional 459.7 million bushels of corn produced - an increase of 29 percent over the 2015 projections. The study also found that since 2015, one in every four bushels of added feed demand for corn is due to beef and pork exports. Also, red meat exports' impact on the price of corn is 39 cents per bushel, based on the annual average price of $3.53 per bushel. Dan Wesely, Chairman of NCGA’s Feed, Food, and Industrial Action Team, called the animal ag industry the largest customer of U.S. corn, adding that the study shows that impact to the corn producer is “extremely beneficial as we continue to help these markets expand."

USDA sees higher corn acres, production, exports and prices for the 2019-20 crop as well as lower ending stocks at the end of the year

It's a different story for soybeans as production and yield are lowered, but a high carryover, relatively low exports and overall higher supply will translate into continued higher ending stocks. USDA released its initial Grains and Oilseeds Outlook early Friday at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Conference. CORN Production is pegged at 14.89 billion bushels (bb), which would be 3% above the 2018-19 crop. Yield is projected at 176 bushels per acre (bpa), "based on a weather-adjusted trend, assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. And agriculture is projected at 92 million acres (ma), up from 89.1 ma for the 2018-19 crop. USDA raised feed and residual use for corn by 125 million bushels (mb) to 5.5 bb. Ethanol production remains steady at 5.575 bb. Exports are bumped up 25 mb to 2.475 bb. Ending stocks for the 2019-20 crop are projected at 1.65 bb, down 85 mb from the 2018-19 crop. The stocks-to-use ratio would fall to 10.9% for 2019-20 compared to 11.6% for the 2018-19 crop. The average farm-gate price is bumped up 5 cents a bushel to $3.65 a bushel as well. SOYBEANS Soybean production is pegged at 4.175 bb, an 8% decline from the record 2018-19 crop. The average yield is projected at 49.5 bpa, down 2.1 bpa from last year. With a projected carryover of 910 mb, total supplies of 5.105 bb will be a record volume. USDA increase domestic crush to 2.235 bb, up 18 mb from the 2018-19 crop. Exports are increased to 2.025 bb, up 150 mb from the 2018-19 crop, but still lower than most recent current years such as 2016-17 and 2017-18. USDA noted, "With rising global demand and reduced supplies in Brazil this fall, some recovery in U.S. exports is expected despite continued import duties assumed for U.S. soybeans in China." Ending stocks for the 2019-20 crop are pegged at 845 mb, down 65 mb form the 2018-19 crop, but still historically high. The stocks-to-use ratio falls from 22.2% for 2018-19 to 19.8% for 2019-20. Still, that remains high compared to 2016 and 2017 crops. Soybean prices are expected to increase an average of 20 cents to $8.80 a bushel. WHEAT Wheat production is projected at 1.9 bb, up about 16 mb from the 2018-19 crop. Planted acres are pegged at 47 ma, down 800,000 acres from a year earlier. Yield is forecast at 47.8 bpa, up .2 bpa from last year as well. Beginning stocks are projected at 1.01 bb, but domestic food and seed use is expected to rise by 10 mb, as is feed and residual use, bringing total domestic use to 1.133 bb, up 20 million bushels from 2018-19. Exports, however, are projected to decline 25 mb to 975 mb. That puts ending stocks for 2019-20 at 944 mb, down 66 mb from 2018-19. The average farm-gate price for wheat is projected at $5.20 a bushel, up five cents from the old crop. COTTON Cotton acreage is expected to be 14.25 ma, up 1.1% from 2018-19. The average yield is projected at 835 pounds an acre, down 3 pounds from last year. Cotton production is projected at 22.5 million bales, up from 18.39 million bales last year. Cotton exports will rise 13.3% to 17 million bales. Ending stocks, however, will increase 2 million bales to 6.3 million bales, raising the stocks to use ratio to 31%. The average farm price for cotton is projected at 67 cents a pound, down five cents from 2018-19. USDA will update its prospective plantings for crops on March 29.

U.S. meat production continued to climb to record levels in 2018 and that trend will continue in 2019

Total red meat and poultry production grew 2% to a record 102.4 billion pounds last year, and USDA expects these categories to increase by 2% again in 2019, to reach a new record of 104.7 billion pounds. These projections were released early Friday in USDA's outlook for livestock and poultry, at the agency's annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia. This steady rise in production kept cattle, hog and turkey prices lower last year, as well as broiler prices, which rose briefly in the first half of the year before dropping in the second half. USDA expects prices for cattle and turkey to rise in 2019, but hog and broiler prices are forecast to drop lower. Exports for 2019 are expected to increase for all the major commodities, but pork growth may be held back by ongoing trade disputes. CATTLE & BEEF The government shutdown in January has delayed USDA's January Cattle report, which forced the agency to rely on inventory estimates from July 2018, and current herd estimates are not available at this time. As of July, the 2018 calf crop was estimated at 36.5 million head, 2% up from 2017, and the largest calf crop since 2007. Although herd expansion continued in 2018, there are indications that is slowing. Producers indicated that they were retaining fewer heifers, and higher levels of beef cow slaughter were reported through much of the year. Commercial beef production for 2019 is forecast to increase by 3% to 27.61 billion pounds, which broke the previous record for production set in 2002. Total commercial cattle slaughter is expected to rise in 2019 by nearly 1%. Beef exports are forecast to have increased by 11% for 2018, with competitive U.S. beef prices and global demand holding steady. For 2019, exports are expected to rise 2% to reach 3.26 billion pounds. USDA predicts U.S. exports will face higher prices in 2019, but drought and flooding in Australia may limit competing supplies. Beef imports are expected to reach 3.01 billion pounds, just barely up from 2018 levels. The 5-Area steer price for 2018 is expected to average $115 to $122 per cwt, up slightly from 2018. Cow-calf operators and backgrounders will likely see lower prices in 2019, given higher projected feed prices and large supplies of cattle in feedlots. Feeder steer prices are forecast to average $141 to $148 per cwt, compared to $147 in 2018.

China Offers $30 Billion More of U.S. Ag Purchases

China is proposing additional purchases of U.S. agriculture products of $30 billion a year in trade talks with the United States. Bloomberg reports the offer would be on top of pre-trade war levels and continue for an undefined period of time. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue told reporters Thursday it was “premature” to comment on the proposal, adding he didn’t want to raise expectations. But, if an agreement is reached, Perdue says the U.S. structural reforms can “recover markets very, very quickly.” The proposal is part of the talks between trade officials from the U.S. and China taking place in Washington, D.C. this week. In response, Arlan Suderman of INTL FCStone, expressed caution, noting “China will say what needs to be said to get a deal, but the key component will be in the verification and enforcement.” The talks face a March 1 deadline, although President Trump has recently suggested he would consider extending the deadline.

USDA Expects Exports to Fall $1.9 Billion in 2019, Pending Trade Agreements

The Department of Agriculture is projecting a $1.9 billion drop in exports this year, led by a decline in trade with China. While talks remain ongoing between China and the United States, USDA during its 95th annual Agricultural Outlook Forum Thursday predicted 2019 fiscal year exports at $141.5 billion. USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson told attendees China is expected to fall from the top market for U.S. exports in 2017, to the fifth largest market in 2019, pending the outcome of trade talks. The U.S. so far in 2019 has exported 13.5 million metric tons less of soybeans than the same time last year, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, USDA is forecasting record milk and animal protein production. USDA also predicts soybean plantings will decline this year as corn plantings increase. Corn plantings for the year are predicted at 92 million acres, up 3.3 percent from 2018, and soybean plantings are predicted at 85 million acres, down 4.7 percent from last year.

Gene Editing Development Stalled; NPPC Renews Call for USDA Oversight

The National Pork Producers Federation is urging the Department of Agriculture to assume regulatory oversight of gene editing for livestock. The call from NPPC follows the slow pace of developing a regulatory framework at the Food and Drug Administration. NPPC says the process is “stalled” at FDA, and that “USDA is best equipped to oversee gene editing for livestock production” according to NPPC President Jim Heimerl (Hi’-merle). NPPC says gene editing accelerates genetic improvements that could be realized over long periods of time through breeding. For example, it allows for simple changes in a pig’s native genetic structure without introducing genes from another species. Emerging applications for the pork industry include raising pigs resistant to Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome, a highly contagious swine disease that causes significant animal suffering and costs pork producers worldwide billions of dollars. Despite no statutory requirement, the FDA currently holds regulatory authority over gene editing in food-producing animals.

BLM, Forest Service, Lower 2019 Grazing Fees

The federal government is reducing charges for federal grazing in 2019. The federal grazing fee for 2019 will drop to $1.35 per animal unit-month for public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management and $1.35 per head-month for lands managed by the USDA Forest Service. This represents a decrease from the 2018 federal grazing fee of $1.41 per animal unit month. The fees are set by the Bureau of Land Management and the Forest Service. Each year, the federal lands grazing fee is calculated as part of a standard formula outlined in the grazing regulations. Public Lands Council President Bob Skinner welcomed the change, saying “Ranchers across the West trust the formula and the process, which ensures fair and equitable access to forage on federal lands.” The grazing fee applies in 16 Western states on public lands administered by the BLM and the Forest Service. The BLM manages more than 245 million acres of public land located primarily in 12 Western states, including Alaska.

E-Commerce Compressing Margins for Ag Retailers

Online agricultural retail startups are compressing margins for traditional ag retailers through increased competition and price transparency. A new report from CoBank shows that while e-commerce platforms remain a relatively small portion of the overall ag retail marketplace, growth in the segment has been significant in recent years and will continue to increase. A CoBank researcher says traditional ag retailers that “successfully embrace the challenges introduced by e-commerce will succeed as tomorrow's cutting-edge ag retailers." E-commerce platforms that lack a physical footprint will struggle to fully serve farmers, especially in the tight and uncertain time windows of production agriculture. Some traditional ag retailers have already begun responding to the challenge by doubling down on their service and distribution capabilities while building their own online presence. Only a small percentage of crop farmers are purchasing inputs online today, but that is beginning to change. In 2017, USDA figures show that only 25 percent of crop farmers purchased inputs online, up from just 16 percent in 2013.

Corteva Acquires BASF’s Clearfield Canola Production System

Corteva Agriscience has acquired the Clearfield Canola Production System called Clearfield canola in Canada and the United States from BASF. Corteva is the Agriculture Division of DowDuPont. The acquisition representants a full line of canola products in Canada, consisting of the Clearfield canola herbicide-tolerant trait and a line of herbicides sold in Canada. Corteva says the acquisition enables the company to expand its position to include out-licensing of the Clearfield canola trait to other seed companies in Canada and the United States. A Corteva spokesperson states the acquisition “ supports Corteva Agriscience in supplying genetics for one of the most consumed vegetable oils globally.” Corteva Agriscience is intended to become an independent, publicly traded company when the previously announced spinoff is complete by June 2019. The division includes DuPont Pioneer, DuPont Crop Protection and Dow AgroSciences.

Junior Ag Loans Available Through Montana Department of Agriculture

Helena, Mont. – Young people active in rural youth organizations like 4-H and FFA may be eligible for loans up to $8500. More than 65 Montana farm and ranch youths currently participate in the Montana Department of Agriculture’s Junior Agriculture Loan Program. “With the average age of farmers and ranchers being nearly 60 years old, its important we do what we can to encourage the next generation to stay involved in agriculture,” said Department Director Ben Thomas. “The Junior Ag Loan Program is a great way for those folks to access financing for a project they are passionate about.” The Montana Junior Agriculture Loan Program was developed to assist and encourage members of agricultural youth organizations in financing agricultural projects. Projects can involve crop and livestock production, custom farming, marketing and distribution, processing, and other financially feasible activities. The Department may finance up to 90 percent of the project and the present interest rate is 5 percent, with repayment up to five years. Program benefits can far exceed the actual loan for active participant. Many young men and women unable to secure conventional financing due to age, inadequate collateral or credit history have used the program to establish financing experience and to advance their project’s monetary value. Applications for the program and other information, can be found on the Department’s website at: https://agr.mt.gov/I-Want-To/Apply-For/Grants-Loans/Junior-Agriculture-Loans The Montana Department of Agriculture’s mission is to protect producers and consumers, and to enhance and develop agriculture and allied industries. For more information on the Montana Department of Agriculture, visit agr.mt.gov.

Montana Farm Bureau offers scholarships for higher education

The Montana Farm Bureau Foundation and the Montana Farm Bureau Women’s Leadership Committee are offering several scholarships for students pursuing a higher education. These include: The 2019 MFB Foundation CYF&R Scholarship. The Montana Farm Bureau Foundation will award one $1,000 scholarship to a current member of the Collegiate Chapter of Young Farmers and Ranchers at MSU Bozeman, UM Western or Miles Community College. The purpose of this scholarship is to assist Collegiate Young Farmer and Rancher members in pursuing a degree from an accredited institute of higher education and enrolled at that institution for the Fall 2019 semester. The scholarship is not limited to students seeking a degree or career in agriculture. The 2019 Bernard Greufe Honor Scholarship. This $1500 scholarship assists Montana high school students in paying for higher education. The applicant must be pursuing a degree from an accredited institute of higher education, although the award is not limited to students seeking a degree or career in agriculture. The 2019 Future of Agriculture Honor Scholarship. This $1500 scholarship, administered by the Montana Farm Bureau Foundation, is made available through generous donations from Seed Source, Inc. of Toston, MT. The purpose of this scholarship is to assist students toward the completion of a degree in a field pertaining to agriculture. A special emphasis will be given to applicants who have shown ingenuity in agricultural production and advancement of small- scale agriculture. The applicant must be pursuing a major, minor or graduate degree in a field pertaining to agriculture from an accredited institute of higher education. Students must be enrolled at that institution for the Fall 2019 semester and achieved at least a sophomore level of education. The Montana Farm Bureau Federation Scholarships: Two $1,500.00 scholarships are available through the sponsorship of the MFB Women’s Leadership Committee. The scholarships are available to young men and women. The applicant must be an incoming college freshman and must be a paid Montana Farm Bureau member. Applications will be scored on scholastic achievement, future goals, community involvement and school activities. The scholarship must be used in the year it is awarded. For more information and scholarship applications, visit www.mfbf.org or call 406-587-3153.

Congressional Budget Leaders Being Asked Not To Sacrifice Crop Insurance

OMAHA (DTN) -- Leaders of Congressional budget committees are being asked not to sacrifice crop insurance as part of upcoming budget proposals this year. The request came in a letter from 60 agriculture, insurance, government and environmental groups on Tuesday. The letter, addressed to budget committee chairmen and ranking members on the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate, urged leaders to protect crop insurance and recognize its "central importance" to farmers, lenders and all of rural America. Groups signing the letter include Environmental Defense Fund; National Association of State Departments of Agriculture; National Association of Wheat Growers; National Barley Growers Association; National Corn Growers Association; National Cotton Council; National Council of Farmer Cooperatives; National Crop Insurance Services; National Farmers Union; National Grain and Feed Association; National Milk Producers Federation; Agricultural Retailers Association; American Farm Bureau Federation and the American Soybean Association, among others. "USDA has projected that 2018 farm profitability will be lower than it has been in over a decade, and farm income dropped more than 45% in five years," the letter said. "An overreliance on budget savings from the agriculture community and from crop insurance will unquestionably undermine rural economies. It's also important to note that in a time of uncertainty in the farming and ranching community -- from natural disasters to trade disputes to government shutdowns -- the public-private partnership that is crop insurance has been a consistent and reliable risk management tool." Earlier this week in San Diego, Wells Fargo Agricultural Economist Michael Swanson told an audience at the Crop Insurance and Reinsurance Bureau annual meeting that banks will not make loans to all financially troubled farmers who have crop insurance this year, even though they will require farmers to buy the insurance. In their letter, the groups said federal crop insurance offers ag lenders the "assurances" they need to continue to provide capital to farmers and ranchers. They stressed that "risk management" was an emphasis of the 2018 farm bill, and that crop insurance plays a key role in a farmer's risk management strategy. "Farmers spend $3.5 to $4 billion per year of their own money to purchase insurance from the private sector. On average, farmers also must incur losses of almost 30% before their insurance coverage pays an indemnity." "Cuts to crop insurance during this difficult time for rural America should be avoided. Farmers and lawmakers agree that crop insurance is a linchpin of the farm safety net and is crucial to the economic and food security of rural America. The importance of crop insurance was just reaffirmed less than two months ago with the passage and signing of the 2018 farm bill, and we urge you to oppose cuts to crop insurance during this year's budget process."

Grassley: Democrats using tax incentives for leverage on biodiesel

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said House Democrats are using the biodiesel tax credit and other expired tax incentives as leverage on other tax issues. The extenders are “tied up with Democrats in the House, not to the extent that I can accuse them of not being for alternative energy, but to the point they are using tax extenders to negotiate with Republicans on other tax provisions,” he told reporters. Grassley acknowledged some Senate Republicans are opposed to alternative energy provisions, but said they are not the real obstacle to reinstating the tax incentives. The vast majority of the Senate Finance Committee supports the extenders, he said.

Washington Insider: The Auto Tariffs Question

There are important new trade worries now, according to both economic analysts and media experts. For example, Bloomberg said that a report by the U.S. Department of Commerce on its investigation into “whether imported cars could pose a national security threat” was received by Trump on Sunday, and is already causing a global stir. Ahead of any administration announcement, the European Union and Japan pushed back against higher levies. And, also this week, China reported yet another monthly slump in car sales as the world’s largest auto market joins other regions including Europe and the US starting the year on a weak note. Bloomberg said the situation fuels “anxiety over an industry already grappling with falling profits amid record spending to finance the shift to electric and self-driving cars.” The persistent gloom in China, who Bloomberg called “the engine room for growth over the past decade,” leaves automakers with few places to go. Japan is sputtering too, while volumes in other smaller markets aren’t enough to offset the declines in the bigger sales regions. “Downward pressure is still there,” Gu Yatao, a Beijing-based auto analyst with Roland Berger, said of China. “The government isn’t adopting stimulating policies to give the market a shot in the arm.” The global slowdown has hit earnings of almost everyone from Ford Motor Co. to Volkswagen AG and Toyota Motor Corp. to pile on the pressure as they spend on electrified and autonomous vehicles. In addition, trade woes, political upheaval and diesel’s demise are hurting consumer sentiment, while the increasing availability of ride-hailing and car-sharing services makes it less necessary to own a car. Even with an expected recovery in China in the second half, the global car market will stall this year or grow just 1%, said Janet Lewis, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in Tokyo. The US and European markets will be little changed, she predicts. “You can’t expect mature markets to grow significantly,” said Zhou Jincheng, an analyst at research firm Fourin Corp. in Nagoya, Japan. “The complexity of global trade environment is not helpful either.” Trump has threatened a tariff of as much as 25% on imported autos, risking a further hit to vehicle demand and carmakers’ bottom lines. The probe covers imports of vehicles including SUVs, vans and light trucks, as well as auto parts. American and foreign-based auto manufacturers have been lobbying against higher tariffs and Trump now has 90 days to decide whether to act on the Department of Commerce findings. The EU vowed prompt retaliation if the U.S. goes ahead with the vehicle tariffs. The 28-nation bloc is considering tariffs on a total of 20 billion euros ($23 billion) in U.S. goods should Trump follow through on his threat, which would chiefly hit Germany. If European exports are hit by U.S. actions, the EU will “react in a swift and adequate manner,” Margaritis Schinas, a spokesman for the European Commission, told reporters in Brussels. Those comments were echoed by Japan, although Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi opined that the U.S. won’t apply higher tariffs on imports of Japanese cars and auto parts so long as negotiations toward a trade deal continue. Motegi said Tuesday he had previously confirmed the matter with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. In China, sales to dealers plummeted 17.7% last month as the world’s second-largest economy slowed and negotiations with the U.S. for a trade-war truce dragged on. Consumers stayed away from showrooms even with discounting by dealerships ahead of the Chinese New Year Holiday. Last year, the market contracted for the first time since the early 1990s. That’s leaving manufacturers who’ve spent billions of dollars adding plants and production lines in China over recent decades uncertain if and when growth will return. Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. targets sales of 1.51 million cars this year, an increase of just 0.7% from 2018. Volkswagen, the No. 1 foreign manufacturer on the mainland, is expecting further growth for the company this year, but has predicted the overall Chinese market to shrink in the first half. Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc’s problems in China forced its parent to take a $3.9 billion writedown this month. Daimler AG and BMW AG reduced profit forecasts last year amid pressures from the U.S.-China trade war that’s hit auto demand, while Hyundai Motor Co. said last month it’s letting workers go as it reviews production plans in the country. What’s happening in China is a reflection of the situation worldwide, Bloomberg thinks. In Europe, car sales declined for a fifth straight month in January. In the U.S., the top four premium car brands all posted sales declines last month to deepen a slump that began taking hold near the end of 2018. So, we will see. With political tensions abnormally high across the US economy and government, it would seem unlikely that new trade interventions would be imposed just now—but the administration seems determined to rely increasingly on tariffs to achieve political objectives. Still, the trade debate is very difficult to anticipate and has become a fight producers should watch closely as it intensifies, Washington Insider believes.

African Swine Fever Found in Vietnam

A report on Swine Health Dot Org says the Vietnamese Ministry of Agriculture released a communication confirming that the African Swine Fever Virus has been found in two northern provinces. The area is located about 100 miles from the Chinese border. Outbreaks appeared on three farms, and all of the infected animals have been culled from their herds. Animal Health Department officials are testing the herds at neighboring farms. Local authorities in the region have put control measures in place to help limit any potential spread of the disease. Moving animals in the infected areas is restricted and quarantines are in place. Pork is a very popular protein in Asian countries and United Nations experts said the spread of ASF was highly likely. Pork is a major part of Vietnamese diets, making up 75 percent of the meat consumed in the country. Vietnam has a population of 95 million people that consume most of its 30 million farm-raised pigs domestically. The Vietnamese Chief of Epidemiology says animal smuggling and tourism are making it difficult to protect Vietnam against ASF spreading further into the country.

New Report Says Hold the Line on Chinese Tariffs, For Now

A new report out from the National Bureau of Asian Research warns the Trump Administration to temper its expectations on China significantly changing its economic policies. The bureau says China can’t make deep structural reforms to its economy in the 10 days before the March 1 deadline to produce a trade deal. The report says the better strategy may be to keep tariffs on Chinese goods in place, potentially for years. The bureau also wants the U.S. to work with allies like the European Union and Japan to crank up international reform pressure on Beijing. “We don’t think inflicting collateral damage on the U.S. economy is a good thing,” says former Louisiana Representative Charles Boustany (Boo-STAH-knee), one of the co-authors of the report. “All we’re saying is hold the line for now on tariffs, short of any kind of major breakthrough.” The report’s authors say a good idea in the interim is to work on what they call “interim agreements.” An example would be the Chinese lifting tariffs on U.S. farm goods in exchange for Trump removing tariffs on Chinese electronic goods.

China Expanding Domestic Agriculture Reforms to Offset Future Trade Difficulties

The Chinese government says it will make changes in domestic agriculture policy to help it withstand potential trade difficulties in the future. The statement from Beijing comes after the country saw its weakest economic growth in almost three decades during 2018. Of course, China remains entangled in a trade war with America. The statement from government officials is known as the “No. 1 Document,” and it outlined plans to rejuvenate and improve living standards in rural China. One of the goals it set forth was becoming less reliant on oilseed imports. The document highlighted a plan to boost domestic soybean production, but it didn’t give any further details on the idea. Industry analysts told Reuters that they’re looking forward to more details in order to assess the potential impact of the plan to boost soy production in China. Beijing has been looking to boost oilseed production even before the trade war with the U.S. began. The dispute led China to slap a tariff on U.S. soybean imports, which had the effect of tightening domestic supplies as China looked to other countries to fill in the gap. The policy document is calling for increasing stable grain production opportunities but also importing ag products where the domestic market comes up short. The Reuters article says that’s potentially good news for the U.S. on the other side of the trade war.

Ag Lenders Say Farmers Depend on Off-Farm Income

The chief economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation says the worst threat to farmers currently is a general economic recession. It’s because so many farmers have now become dependent on off-farm income to make ends meet and stay in operation. Farm Bureau’s Chief Economist, John Newton, spoke during a panel of ag economists’ discussion at the Crop Insurance Industry Convention. “Farm lenders say the reason why we can continue to do what we are doing is off-farm income,” Newton says. “It’s off-farm income that allows folks to continue to farm. Lenders are really concerned about a slowdown in the U.S. economy.” The Hagstrom Report says Newton presented statistics on the decline of farm income since 2013. Newton told the people in attendance that the overall U.S. economy is still performing well. The concern comes in because the consumer confidence index, as well as the CEO Confidence Index, are both down. Newton says USDA statistics show a drop of $57 billion in farm income since 2013, a 47 percent drop. Gross farm income in 2018 came in at $435 billion, while production expenses were $369 billion. The net farm income total was $66.3 billion, a steep drop since 2013. Net farm income last year was the third-lowest in the last two decades in inflation-adjusted terms. Without the government payments figured in, 2018 would have seen the lowest net farm income of all time, Newton adds.

Farm Bureau Supporting Utah Farmers, Ranchers Access to Utah Public Lands

The American Farm Bureau Federation, along with the Utah Farm Bureau, the state of Utah, and San Juan County in Utah weighed in on court deliberations regarding access to public lands. President Donald Trump made a proclamation in 2017 on decreasing the size of the Grand-Staircase Escalante (ehs-cah-LAHN-tay) National Monument, as well as the Bears Ears National Monument, both in Utah. The brief supports the federal government’s motion requesting dismissal of a series of consolidated legal actions filed against the president’s declaration. The brief describes how the changes made by the proclamation will benefit ranchers’ livelihoods by giving them expanded grazing for their livestock in and around the monuments. “Granting the plaintiffs’ claims would significantly jeopardize those Farm Bureau members who ranch in the area, having done so for generations under the authority of multiple federal laws and regulations.” The groups emphasized that President Trump has the authority to take such an action under the Antiquities Act. They point out that other presidents before him took similar actions on at least 18 different occasions. They said there is no legal precedent for limiting a sitting President’s ability to make such modifications.

BLM and Forest Service grazing fees lowered in 2019

WASHINGTON – The Federal grazing fee for 2019 will drop to $1.35 per animal unit month (AUM) for public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management and $1.35 per head month (HM) for lands managed by the USDA Forest Service. This represents a decrease from the 2018 Federal grazing fee of $1.41 per AUM. An AUM or HM—treated as equivalent measures for fee purposes—is the use of public lands by one cow and her calf, one horse, or five sheep or goats for a month. The newly calculated grazing fee was determined by a congressional formula and takes effect March 1, 2019. The fee will apply to nearly 18,000 grazing permits and leases administered by the BLM and nearly 6,500 permits administered by the Forest Service. The formula used for calculating the grazing fee was established by Congress in the 1978 Public Rangelands Improvement Act and has remained in use under a 1986 presidential Executive Order. Under that order, the grazing fee cannot fall below $1.35 per AUM/HM, and any increase or decrease cannot exceed 25 percent of the previous year’s level. The annually determined grazing fee is established using a 1966 base value of $1.23 per AUM/HM for livestock grazing on public lands in Western states. The figure is then calculated according to three factors—current private grazing land lease rates, beef cattle prices, and the cost of livestock production. In effect, the fee rises, falls, or stays the same based on market conditions. “The BLM and Forest Service are committed to strong relationships with the ranching community and work closely with permittees to ensure public rangelands remain healthy, productive working landscapes,” said Brian Steed, BLM Deputy Director for Programs and Policy. “Fifty percent of the collected grazing fees deposited into the U.S. Treasury are returned to the Range Betterment Fund for on-the-ground range improvement projects. Portions of collected fees are also returned to the states for use in the counties where the fees were generated.” The grazing fee applies in 16 Western states on public lands administered by the BLM and the Forest Service. The states are: Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Permit holders and lessees may contact their local BLM or Forest Service office for additional information.

Trade Tensions Weighing On Global Trade Growth: WTO

Escalating trade tensions are a key factor that is producing a slowing of global trade growth, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The latest update of the WTO's World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI) came in at 96.3 as of December 2018, the lowest mark for the index that analyzes several principal drivers of trade. A WTOI reading of 100 represents baseline growth on par with the medium-term trend, while readings above or below that represent faster or slower than trend global trade growth. Weakness in the overall index was attributed to "steep declines" in most component indices, WTO said. "Indices for export orders (95.3), air freight (96.8), automobile production and sales (92.5), electronic components (88.7) and agricultural raw materials (94.3) have all fallen below trend," it noted. Only the container port throughput index remained on trend with a reading of 100.3. Index values were lower year-over-year for all WTOI components, with the biggest declines seen for electronics, down 12.9 points, and automobile production and sales, down 10.3 points. Meanwhile, the ag raw materials index was down 5.1 points, year-over-year, with declines at or just under one point per month seen for October through December. Trade turmoil is the key issue weighing on global trade growth, according to WTO. The almost-across-the-board index declines "should put policy makers on guard for a sharper slowdown should current trade tensions remain unresolved," the trade body warned. "Conversely, greater certainty and improvement in the policy environment could bring about a swift rebound in trade growth." The U.S.-China trade war is perhaps the biggest present drag on global trade, with the two sides actively engaged in talks aimed at averting further escalation. The outcome of those negotiations remains uncertain with some signs that a final deal may still be a ways off.

Washington Insider: Rep. DeLauro Hits FDA Delays in Water Quality Enforcement

Finding and fixing water quality problems for leafy greens is one of the industry’s major problems, but leaders at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) charged with implementing the Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) knew that all along, Food Safety News is reporting this week. As a result, they decided to allow “more time for education and training” for the new rules. The original 2018 compliance date for the FSMA water quality standards was pushed back to 2022 and FDA called in 45 state agricultural departments to help get growers and others in the food supply chain up to speed. But this week, after FDA released embarrassing findings from its investigation into last year’s E. coli outbreak linked to romaine lettuce, “the agency learned its patience has a price,” FSN says. One of the authors of the Food Safety Modernization Act who is still a congressional leader on food safety, Rep. Rosa DeLauro, D-Conn., let FDA know “she’s seen enough delay.” “The FDA’s investigations into last year’s romaine lettuce recalls have confirmed what we already knew to be true: dirty irrigation water contaminates produce and makes people sick. The fact that people are dying and lives are being destroyed while the FDA caves to big corporate interests is unconscionable,” she said. She also called on FDA to “take its own findings to heart and implement science-based standards to test irrigation water. Eight years after the Food Safety Modernization Act was signed into law, it is long past time these important rules went into effect — not delayed into the next decade. Enough is enough,” she said. DeLauro’s criticisms are important to FDA and the food industry since she chairs the Congressional Food Safety Caucus and is a senior Democrat on the Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee which has jurisdiction over funding and oversight of the FDA. She charges that the FDA has actually has done little “to advance real actions that would prevent food outbreaks in the first place,” FSN said. DeLauro noted that investigators positively identified the outbreak strain in the sediment of an irrigation reservoir on the implicated farm in Santa Maria in Santa Barbara County, Calif. “These findings build upon FDA’s Environmental Assessment into last year’s E. coli outbreak linked to romaine lettuce produced in the Yuma growing region. That investigation also positively identified the outbreak strain in contaminated irrigation water, which was found in three separate locations along an irrigation canal used by multiple farms. Together, both outbreaks resulted in 272 illnesses, 121 hospitalizations, and 5 deaths” the congresswoman said. Despite scientific evidence that contaminated agricultural irrigation water poses serious risks to produce safety, the FDA is continuing to delay implementation of the Produce Safety Rule’s testing requirements of agricultural water under the FSMA. The original compliance date was set for 2018. However, under current policy, FDA will not begin any enforcement of the water testing rules until at least 2022. DeLauro has a strong reputation as a well-informed, formidable critic of federal agencies, as well as of industry safety problems. She has made the case for some time that one of the food industry’s key areas of vulnerability is water quality, so the FDA’s willingness to move fairly slowly to shore up protections against a similar outbreak like those that hammered the industry last year is somewhat surprising. Certainly food safety is of vital importance to producers and this FDA-DeLauro fight is one that should be watched closely as it intensifies, Washington Insider believes.

China, U.S., Seek Agreement in Trade Talks

Trade talks between the U.S. and China resumed Tuesday as both nations seem optimistic to reach an agreement that would mark the end of a tit-for-tat trade war. Mid-level talks are ongoing, with higher-level talks expected Thursday that will include U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, according to the Washington Post. The two sides "made headway" on "important and difficult" issues last week, according to Lighthizer. An agreement would be welcomed by U.S. agriculture, as China targeted U.S. farm goods throughout the trade war, including soybeans. However, more long-term damage may be lurking. China has been working to overhaul its agriculture structure in recent years, and a recent policy statement by China announced the nations intent to stimulate its rural economy. The policy statement includes increased farm subsidies and the promotion of increased plantings of soybeans and other oilseeds. The statement is seen as another measure by China to increase domestic production of soybeans to reduce dependence on foreign nations.

New TPP Giving Canada Trade Boost in Japan

The new Trans-Pacific Partnership is boosting Canada’s beef sales to Japan. The new trade deal that does not include the United States has led to a surge in beef exports from Canada, although official numbers are not yet available. The Financial Times reports the new TPP, called the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, could be costing the U.S. beef sector through the protectionism policies by the Trump administration that withdrew from the original trade deal. Well-noted by the U.S. beef industry, the new TPP cut Japanese tariffs on imports of chilled beef from 38.7 percent to 27.5 percent, giving Australia, Canada and New Zealand and 11 percent tariff advantage over U.S. beef. The recent government shutdown delayed planned bilateral trade talks between the U.S. and Japan, but the talks are supposed to start soon. Japan has indicated it would give the U.S. similar tariff concession made to those in the TPP agreement.

Farm Bureau Analysis Shows 2018 Farm Bankruptcy Statistics

An analysis by the American Farm Bureau Federation shows 2018 Chapter 12 family farmer and family fisherman bankruptcies nationwide were down from prior-year levels. Chapter 12 filings in 2018 totaled 498 and were down one percent, or three filings, from the 2017 calendar year, according to the AFBF Market Intel report. AFBF notes, however, that the U.S. had fewer farmers in the U.S. in 2018 compared to 2017. And, the data shows bankruptcy filings in 19 states were higher than prior-year levels. In the Midwest, bankruptcies totaled 223 filings, up 19 percent from 2017 and double decade-ago levels. Farm bankruptcies in Wisconsin, the second largest dairy state, totaled 49 filings in 2018 – the highest in the nation. AFBF says the situation is likely to worsen. Farm debt is record-high, and farm debt as a proportion of annual farm income is at 97 percent, a 32-year high. However, AFBF also points out that bankruptcy does not mean the loss of the family farm. Through a successful Chapter 12 bankruptcy, a farmer may have an opportunity to retain assets and continue the farm operation in some capacity.

No Hemp Crop Insurance Coverage Yet

A Department of Agriculture official says the crop insurance coverage for hemp is not ready. Martin Barbre, USDA Risk Management Agency administrator, told the crop insurance industry this week that agents could discuss crop insurance with hemp farmers, but must tell them “there is no coverage at the present time.” The 2018 farm bill removed hemp from the list of controlled drugs, and USDA says it will help growers of hemp, including through crop insurance. However, getting a program set up takes time, and Barbre did not say when crop insurance might be available for crop insurance, according to the Hagstrom report. He said the Risk Management agency cannot work on the issue until the Agricultural Marketing Service develops regulations for producing hemp. Meanwhile, other insurance changes from the farm bill include the new dairy insurance program, which Barbre said is in its infancy, but has “really taken off.”

Perdue to Speak at Commodity Classic

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue will be the keynote speaker at the 2019 Commodity Classic next week. Held February 28th to March 2nd in Orlando Florida, close to 10,000 attendees are expected. Perdue will speak during the general session of the event, planned for Friday, March 1, at 9:00 a.m. Before Secretary Perdue, the General Session will include comments from leaders of the five associations that present Commodity Classic each year: American Soybean Association, National Corn Growers Association, National Association of Wheat Growers, National Sorghum Producers and the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. Perdue is expected to share current news and perspectives from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, with topics including international trade, farm bill implementation, rural development and the role of agriculture in America's food security and economic health. Detailed information about Commodity Classic schedule is available commodityclassic.com.

Applications Now Open for 2019 Pork Industry Scholarships

The National Pork Board has opened the application process for the 2019 Pork Industry Scholarships. The program, now in its tenth year, is open to college juniors and seniors who have plans to pursue a career in swine production management or a related field. Additionally, students who will be seeking to attend veterinary or graduate school with an emphasis on swine are encouraged to apply. The National Pork Board will award up to 20 scholarships in 2019 totaling $46,000. The top applicant will receive $5,000, the second-ranked applicant will receive $3,500 and all others will receive $2,000. The guidelines for the scholarship application and the online form can be found at pork.org. The deadline for application submission is March 15, 2019. Following review and selection, recipients will be notified in April. Approximately 80 percent of the previous recipients of the Pork Industry Scholarship have pursued advanced degrees as they prepared to serve the industry as veterinarians, nutritionists, reproductive biologists and management consultants.

Tariff Hike Deadline Looms As US-China Talks Continue This Week

Negotiations between the U.S. and China resume this week in Washington after both sides reported progress during last week’s talks in Beijing, but a March 1 deadline looms over the talks. Following talks last week, Chinese officials and the White House both confirmed the plans for more mid- and high- level talks this week in Washington. The White House said it "hopes to see additional progress" as negotiations continue. U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin led the U.S. delegation during the Beijing talks. Vice Premier Liu He headed up the Chinese side and President Xi Jinping also dropped in at the conclusion of negotiations. “Extensive technical exchanges between the professional staffs of both countries" lead to "detailed and intensive discussions,” White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement following the talks. While "progress" was made, "much work remains" to resolve outstanding issues before a March 1 deadline when the U.S. is set to increase tariffs to 25% on $200 billion in Chinese goods, she noted. "Structural issues, including forced technology transfer, intellectual property rights, cyber theft, agriculture, services, non-tariff barriers and currency" continue to be the focus for U.S. negotiators, Huckabee said. Reports suggest a significant gap remains on those issues, which the U.S. has insisted be part of any final agreement. Meanwhile, Huckabee noted commitments by China to purchase more U.S. goods and services are also a factor in negotiations and any such commitments will be included in a Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) between the two countries.

US Again Questions India's WTO Domestic Ag Support Notifications

The U.S. and Canada are raising more questions about India's World Trade Organization (WTO) notifications for domestic support for agricultural products. The two countries delivered what is known as a counter notification on supports by India for pulse crops. The action was submitted to the WTO's Committee on Agriculture (COA) by the U.S. and Canada, according to a joint announcement from U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer and USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue. This is the third time the U.S. has issued counter notifications, having done so twice last year on India's market price support (MPS) notifications for crops – one on India's notification for cotton and another challenging those notifications on rice and wheat. Meanwhile, Australia has also issued a counter notification over India's MPS for sugarcane. India "substantially underreported its market price support for chickpeas, pigeon peas, black matpe, mung beans and lentils," Lighthizer and Perdue said, based on U.S. calculations. The U.S. alleged that when support for the crops is calculated according to WTO COA methodology "India’s market price support for each of these pulses far exceeded its allowable levels of trade-distorting domestic support." For India, MPS is bound by the "de minimis" limit of 10% of total production allowed for developing countries.

Washington Insider: Global Trade Negotiations and Fights

Well, it seems that international trade maneuvering is reaching into almost every corner of commerce and politics these days. For example, Bloomberg is reporting this week that Canada is seeking support from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., against U.S. metal tariffs. Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said she met Pelosi and other Democrats on the sidelines of a global security conference in Munich on Saturday and that they took the opportunity to discuss President Trump’s tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs and the ratification path for the countries’ new trade deal. “I explained why Canada is so strongly opposed to them and why Canada believes they must be lifted,” Freeland told reporters. Canada has said it’ll lift its retaliatory tariffs, affecting about C$16 billion ($12 billion) in U.S. goods ranging from steel to ketchup, when the U.S. cancels its measures. Freeland delivered a similar appeal last week to Senator Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, who chairs the chamber’s Finance Committee. She said she told him “that now that we have concluded our trade negotiation with the United States, that is all the more reason why those tariffs must be lifted.” Grassley said after meeting Freeland that he believes Canada won’t advance legislation to ratify the successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement if the steel and aluminum tariffs remain in place. Freeland declined to comment, while saying Canada is moving forward and that she’s in touch with cabinet colleagues and lawmakers about ratification. “We are very seized of the issue and we are working on it. In due course, we will present our plan for ratification of the new NAFTA,” she said. “Canada is definitely focused on our domestic ratification process and we feel we have it well in hand.” Canada has an election in October, meaning the current crop of lawmakers will likely adjourn in June. Freeland said she also spoke to Pelosi about two Canadians detained in China, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor. She also met with the president of the International Crisis Group, Kovrig’s employer, after he was seized by Chinese authorities on Dec. 10. Kovrig is on leave from a position in Canada’s foreign service. Kovrig and Spavor were detained after Canada, acting on a U.S. request, arrested Huawei Technologies Co.’s Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou on Dec. 1 in Vancouver. Canada has since been trying to rally international support for their release, arguing that China arbitrarily seized Kovrig and Spavor in retaliation. The Canadian commentary was not the only trade-based development this weekend. U.S. markets had reacted favorably to reports of progress in U.S.-China talks late in the week. At that time, the overseas press as well as the U.S. administration reported progress in the negotiations.” For example, Chinese state media expressed cautious optimism a day after President Xi Jinping said a week of discussions in Beijing had produced "step-by-step" progress. Mr Xi made the comments at a meeting on Friday with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. The People's Daily, the official paper of the ruling Communist Party, said in a commentary that Mr Xi's meeting with U.S. negotiators had affirmed progress made in previous talks and "injected new impetus into the next stage of the development of Sino-U.S. trade relations." The talks "have made important progress" for the next round of negotiations in Washington next week, the paper said in its domestic edition. "It is hoped the two sides will maintain the good momentum of the current consultations and strive to reach an agreement within the set time limit," it added. U.S. duties on $200 billion in imports from China are set to rise to 25% from 10% if there is no deal by March 1 to address U.S. demands that China curb forced technology transfers and better enforce intellectual property rights. An English-language editorial in the Global Times, which is published by the People's Daily, said news that China had consulted on the text of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) "shows the two sides have made unprecedented progress. The MOU and next week's talks both show that the seemingly endless China-U.S. trade negotiations, like a marathon, are making a final sprint," it said. The newspapers cautioned that any trade agreement reached would have to be in the interests of both countries. "There are still obstacles to be overcome and no one should underestimate how daunting a task the two sides face trying to resolve all the differences that have long existed between them in one clean sweep," the official English-language China Daily said in an editorial. Over all, political tensions over many things including budgeting for border barrier construction are at or near an all-time high, so only the most courageous are willing to forecast agreements in most economic areas. However, the fact that the U.S. and China can agree about even a negotiating process seems like good news, even if it faces future hurdles of many kinds. These are discussions producers should watch closely as they proceed, Washington Insider believes.

Research predicts steady growth through 2025 for the global beef market

While headlines continue to wave U.S. consumers away from meat, and beef in particular, Grand View Research predicts steady growth through 2025 for the global beef market. In a new report, the research firm predicted the value of the global beef market would reach $383.5 billion by 2025, exhibiting a 3.1 percent compound annual growth rate. “Growing awareness regarding beef as a major source of protein is expected to drive the market,” the report stated, naming these key finding: The “other cuts” segment dominated the global market with a revenue share of 54.7 percent in 2017, mainly due to increasing demand for ribs, round, chuck, plate and flank. The loin cut is expected to be the fastest growing segment, with a predicted 3.5 percent annual growth rate from 2017 to 2025. In terms of volume, the halal slaughter method is projected to expand at a annual rate of 2.7 percent over the forecast period In terms of volume, North America is projected to witness a steady growth rate of 2.5 percent over the forecast period, with awareness associated with grass-fed beef anticipated to contribute to market growth. The China factor High demand from China, supported by increasing disposable income, is also anticipated to drive beef consumption over the forecast period, the report predicted. Favorable government initiatives pertaining to the food industry will remain an important growth factor. Recently, the government of China lifted the ban on Australian chilled and frozen food. It is expected that the government will also lift the Brazilian imports ban over the coming years. Grass-fed, halal seen as growth areas The report noted an increase over the past six years in U.S. imports of chilled grass-fed beef have increased. Demand from restaurant chains such as Burger King and McDonald's is also expected to contribute to the growth of the U.S. market. A rising Islamic population is also expected to trigger demand for halal beef over the forecast period. A warning The research firm did warn, however, “health hazards associated with consumption of meat and higher prices of beef compared to other forms of meat can critically impact market growth.”