Washington Insider: Shutdown Ahead in Washington

Tensions between the White House and Congress accelerated during the recent sit-down between the President and Congressional leaders. Many think this makes a government shutdown increasingly likely, Bloomberg says this week. Tuesday’s session and the acrimony it generated highlighted the gulf between Democrats and Trump over must-pass U.S. spending legislation while putting a possible compromise further out of reach. In fact, Bloomberg says, “Trump and Democrats are so far apart they can’t even agree on the terms of the debate — whether it’s about a wall or a fence or border security generally.” The president is insisting on $5 billion for a concrete wall while the Democrats think that $1.375 billion for fencing along the southern frontier with Mexico is the maximum that can be approved. A shutdown, which would occur after Dec. 21, “likely would be very different in scale than others in recent years,” Bloomberg notes. Only some departments and agencies would be shuttered and their “essential employees” would still report to work. That’s because Congress and Trump previously approved funding bills for three quarters of the $1.2 trillion in operating expenses for federal agencies. And the outlook for the spending bill is seen by some less dire than the immediate reactions would suggest. For example, hours after Trump and the Democratic leaders aired their differences, the president said: “Believe it or not, I think it was a very friendly meeting.” “I don’t mind having the issue of border security on my side,” he told reporters. “If we have to close down the country over border security, I actually like that, in terms of an issue.” House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., privately bragged to other Democrats about the outcome of the meeting with the president. “The fact is we did get him to say, to fully own that the shutdown was his,” she said. “That was an accomplishment.” Pelosi later told reporters that she and Trump spoke by telephone later — she called it “a pleasant conversation” — and that the president said he is still reviewing the options that the two Democrats laid out. At the same time, lawmakers from both parties said they aren’t sure how the impasse can actually be resolved. And there may be more bumps in the road ahead. For example, the influential House Freedom Caucus hasn’t yet made a decision on whether to support the newly-revised lame-duck tax package, Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., its chairman, told reporters yesterday. House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady, R-Texas, released the revised bill on Monday. Meadows had previously said that an earlier version — which lacked sweeteners like a repeal of a church politicking ban — wouldn’t be able to pass the chamber. Meadows said negotiations are ongoing and there are some additions he would like to see made to the bill. In addition to the extremely intense fight over the proposed border wall, many in Congress are looking forward to next year as Rep. Pelosi nears a deal to clinch the votes needed to become House speaker by promising her staunchest opponents that she’ll set an expiration date on her leadership. Five Democrats who signed a letter demanding new leadership are signaling that they’ll support Pelosi for speaker in exchange for term limits on Democratic leaders. The concept being proposed is quite complex, Bloomberg says. It would limit top party leaders while in the House majority to three two-year terms and would be retroactive, meaning that Pelosi would only have two years left to be speaker following the four years she led the chamber from 2007-2010. Leaders could also seek an additional two-year term under modified rules. Such a deal all but secures the speaker’s gavel for Pelosi, Bloomberg thinks, but could possibly come at the cost of defining how long she’ll stay, something she previously resisted doing because she said it would compromise her leverage in negotiations with Republicans. For this potential agreement, the Democratic caucus would vote on the term limits after the speaker vote in January, with Pelosi’s support. If the caucus doesn’t support the limits, Pelosi would still respect the deal and leave the speakership in either 2021 or 2023, Bloomberg says. Finally, President Trump says he is willing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping again on trade as he hailed Beijing for resuming soybean purchases. “I just heard today that they’re buying tremendous amounts of soybeans. They are starting, just starting now,” Trump told Reuters. He said trade talks with China are already underway by phone, with more meetings likely, the President said. So, we will see. There are so many issues outstanding just now that some “grand bargain” likely would be required to allow many significant achievements in the immediate future, especially as the new House majority settles in. While the farm bill is on the way to Trump's desk, there are literally dozens of bitter fights ahead that producers should watch closely as they proceed, Washington Insider believes.