To illustrate how demand can throw the market a curve, Glynn Tonsor says to look no further than 2017

That's when the industry took an uncommon turn, as demand drove fourth-quarter calf prices higher. That kind of late-market surge has happened just five times in the last 15 years.The Kansas State University beef economist explains: "Last year, we saw beef demand, both domestically and on the export market, get stronger throughout the second half of 2017. Typically, due to a higher supply of calves beginning in September and October, we see prices pull down. Given enough demand, you overcome that. The result was almost everyone last year got a better price than they thought they would."Tonsor says that fourth-quarter anomaly isn't something he expects to see repeated in 2018. He predicts this year's market to be more of a break-even environment largely because of mostly stable input costs."The cost to run a cow in 2017 was around $807," he notes. "We expect this year, that will be around $812." Clearly, drought conditions that force producers to purchase more feed could increase costs.Tonsor also believes there's opportunity for stockers this season. "There are two ways stockers do well in this market. If demand is strong and we see trade deals improve, or the global economy grows faster than projected, anyone selling a heavier animal benefits. So, those in the middle who bought calves and added weight are in a good position."The other way stockers do well is by buying discounted calves," he continues. "If I buy calves in October in a bearish market, and during the winter the outlook improves, I sell at a higher value than I bought at. The stocker sees upside, but it's a negative for the average cow/calf producer."Tonsor believes the high end of the calf market has already been set, unless some market dynamics change moving into the second half of 2018."Supply pressure going forward looks to be greater than demand," he notes. "So, if a stocker is making money, it's probably going to be because he got a cheaper calf." 

Farm groups are trying to stave off demands to include more cuts in the farm bill for crop insurance and commodity programs

OMAHA (DTN) -- A group of 65 organizations -- including farm, conservation and wildlife groups -- sent a letter Thursday to every member of the House of Representatives, urging them not to propose amendments to the farm bill "that would do significant harm to crop insurance and to rural America."The groups stated they were opposed to any amendments that would reduce or limit participation in crop insurance, make crop insurance more expensive or "harm private-sector delivery" of crop insurance. The groups detailed the justification for crop insurance for farmers and the value to taxpayers by avoiding ad-hoc disaster aid to producers. And the letter urged congressmen to oppose any amendments to the farm bill that would harm crop insurance. Not knowing exactly when the farm bill was going to come to the House floor, supporters of crop insurance felt the need to remind congressmen about the value of crop insurance and also to reach out to more 110 congressmen who were not in office the last time a farm bill came to the House floor. 

EPA Waivers Lower Ethanol Production Six Percent

The Environmental Protection Agency has granted Renewable Fuels Standard waivers to dozens of refineries over the last couple of years. The Renewable Fuels Association analyzed the EPA’s own compliance data and found that the exemptions lowered volumetric obligations by at least 1.6 million gallons over that time period. The volume lost over the last two years is ten times greater than the collective losses from 2013-2015. Despite receiving numerous requests for information from ethanol industry stakeholders on the exact number of waivers, the EPA hasn’t disclosed the number of waivers it’s granted and how much blending volume those exemptions effectively erased. An RFA analysis of EPA database information shows, “The EPA data strongly implies that small refiner exemptions have effectively lowered the 2017 required volume of renewable fuels by 1.1 billion gallons, or six percent.” The RFA analysis also says that the data shows small refiner exemptions also effectively reduced the 2016 RFS requirement by 523 million gallons. RFA President and CEO Bob Dineen says, “This analysis, based on EPA's own data, confirms our concerns and sheds light on the scope and magnitude of Administrator Pruitt's campaign to undermine the RFS. 

EPA Chief Faces Tough Questions

A Politico report says Environmental Protection Agency Chief Scott Pruitt had a simple task during recent Congressional hearings, which was to keep his conservative backers happy. In turn, that may keep the president happy. Democrats and environmentalists panned Pruitt’s job performance as the EPA head is facing a number of ethical and spending questions. Most Republicans seemed pleased enough with his performance that he may have saved his job, for now. However, President Donald Trump hasn’t weighed in with his thoughts yet. One Republican who is close to the White House tells Politico that, “As long as Pruitt’s explanations hold and there are no crazy discrepancies or smoking guns, I don’t think that creates any red flags for Pruitt.” Pruitt’s shifting answers to questions about controversial staff raises for two of his aides raised concerns that he hasn’t been completely up front. Pruitt also used the two hearings before lawmakers to blame his torrent of scandals on EPA career staff. Pruitt said during one hearing, “Let me be very clear: I have nothing to hide as it relates to how I’ve run the agency for the past 16 months.”

NC Residents Win Big Money from Smithfield

A federal jury reached a verdict worth $50 million in the first of 26 lawsuits against North Carolina pork producer Murphy Brown. An Indy Week Dot Com reports says the jury took less than 24 hours to reach the verdict against Murphy Brown, a subsidiary of Chinese-owned Smithfield Foods. The plaintiffs contended that the company’s waste-management plan makes their lives miserable. The plan consists of storing excess hog waste in open-air cesspools, as well as liquefying and spraying the remains on nearby fields. The plaintiffs say the odors and mist from the spray drift onto their properties, that the hogs attract swarms of insects and buzzards, boxes with dead hogs smell especially bad, and the stench limits their ability to go outside. The trial involved ten plaintiffs who live near Kinlaw Farm in Bladen County, North Carolina, who contracts with Smithfield to raise 15,000 hogs. Smithfield Foods says in a news release that they will file an immediate appeal of the verdict.

American Veterinary Association Pleased With House Farm Bill

The American Veterinary Medical Association is pleased with the animal health priorities in the House version of the 2018 Farm Bill. Among the highlights, the AVMA is pleased with the new authorizations and funding for a National Animal Disease Preparedness and Response Program, The National Animal Health Laboratory Network, and a livestock vaccine bank with immediate attention to foot-and-mouth disease. Dr. Lauren Stump, Assistant Director of Government Relations for the AVMA, says the House Agriculture Committee’s work on the farm bill is a great step in the right direction to effectively respond to and prevent animal diseases. “We don’t know when the next major outbreak will occur, but it’s of paramount importance that we prepare for when it does,” she says. “We must take a proactive approach to animal health so we can stop animal diseases before they spread.” Stump says they look forward to continuing to work with Congress to help lawmakers pass a farm bill that achieves the goals of protecting animal agriculture and ensuring consumers have access to safe and nutritious protein.

Syngenta Says European Decision Takes Ag In The Wrong Direction

The decision by European Union member states to back the European Commission’s proposal on further restricting the use of neonicotinoids disappointed Syngenta, but it wasn’t unexpected. The company says that wasn’t the right decision for the future of agriculture or the environment in Europe. Syngenta says agriculture needs all the options it has to help farmers ensure that consumers have access to safe and affordable food. Farmers also have to be able to minimize the negative impact and amplify the positive effects agriculture has on the environment. Syngenta says the Commission relied on an unapproved regulatory document called the Bee Risk Guidance Document in making its decision. Syngenta says the decision to propose a further ban on neonicotinoids will not address the challenges we face in ensuring a safe and reliable food supply, while also taking care of the environment. They say the Bee Risk Guidance Document is so conservative and so far removed from the reality of modern agriculture that it would ban most, if not all, agricultural chemicals.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts a large increase in cotton production in Texas, the biggest cotton-producing state in the U.S.

Cotton industry observers are noticing cotton production shifting northward into Kansas and Oklahoma. CoBank issued a report looking at the reasons for cotton increasing into new areas. The report says the reasons behind the expansion include unprofitable prices for grain crops, declining water availability, round bale harvesters, better genetic varieties of cotton, and increased optimism about a cotton program re-entering the 2018 Farm Bill. A CoBank senior analyst says the projections of increased cotton planting are sending signals to the cotton industry that it will need more ginning capacity and storage capacity. Ben Laine of CoBank says, “We’re already seeing some cooperative gins in Kansas expanding capacity, with some doubling their previous year’s capacity, and others in three more states increasing their capacity by as much as 30 percent.” While the cooperatives are expanding, the bigger question is how sustainable cotton will be in some of these new areas. Laine says, “If cotton is included in a rotation, the underlying infrastructure investments and the long-term economics compared to other crops show cotton is sustainable in these typically grain-dominated areas.”

FSA Clarifies Use of Livestock Indemnity Program

Starting this week, agricultural producers who have lost livestock to disease resulting from a weather disaster have an additional way to become eligible for a key U.S. Department of Agriculture disaster assistance program. 

USDA Under Secretary for Farm Production and Conservation Bill Northey announced an administrative clarification nationwide to the Livestock Indemnity Program. In the event of disease, this change by USDA's Farm Service Agency authorizes local FSA county committees to accept veterinarian certifications that livestock deaths were directly related to adverse weather and unpreventable through good animal husbandry and management. The committees may then use this certification to allow eligibility for producers on a case-by-case basis for LIP. 

"This change is part of USDA's broader effort to better serve America's farmers, ranchers and foresters through flexible and effective programs," said Northey. "America's farmers feed our nation and much of the world, and throughout history they have known good years and bad years. But when disaster strikes, USDA is ready to step in and help." 

LIP provides benefits to agricultural producers for livestock deaths in excess of normal mortality caused by adverse weather, disease or attacks by animals reintroduced into the wild by the federal government. Eligible weather events include earthquakes, hail, tornadoes, hurricanes, storms, blizzards and flooding. 

Producers interested in LIP or other USDA disaster assistance programs should contact their local USDA service center.  

Kassidy Moore Earns Junior Silver Award

Kassidy Moore, Mountain Home, Idaho, has earned the National Junior Angus Association’s (NJAA) Silver award, according to Jaclyn Upperman, education and events director of the American Angus Association® in Saint Joseph, Mo.The 17-year-old daughter of Jon and Annette Moore is a member of the NJAA and the Idaho Junior Angus Association, where she has served president.She has participated in state and national shows and showmanship contests. At the National Junior Angus Show (NJAS), Kassidy served as a voting delegate in 2016. She participated in the Leaders Engaged in Angus Development (LEAD) conferences in 2015 and 2018.The Silver award is the second level of the NJAA Recognition Program that began in 1972. Junior Angus breeders must apply for the award, then meet point requirements in many areas of participation before receiving the honor. Applicants are evaluated in areas of junior Angus association activities and leadership, participation in showmanship, contests and shows, using performance testing to improve their herd and their progress in producing and merchandising Angus cattle.The NJAA promotes the involvement of young people in raising Angus cattle, while also providing leadership and self-development opportunities for the nearly 6,000 active members nationwide. 

Coalition Responds to Delivery of Wild Horse and Burro Report to Congress

WASHINGTON (April 27, 2018) – Today the National Horse and Burro Rangeland Management Coalition (NHBRMC) released the following statements in response to the Department of the Interior’s (DOI) submission of “Management Options for a Sustainable Wild Horse and Burro Program” to Congress:“We are pleased that the Department of the Interior has submitted their report to Congress regarding the dire overpopulation of wild horses and burros on western rangelands.  The status quo has failed these animals and the lands on which they roam for far too long, and it is encouraging to see the agencies and Congress finally make progress towards solving this problem before more irreversible damage can be done to these sensitive ranges,” said NHBRMC chair Ethan Lane. “At the end of the day, healthy horses on healthy rangelands is our top priorities and hopefully this document proposes some commonsense solutions to that end,” said NHBRMC vice chair Lia Biondo.  “We are currently reviewing the options discussed in the report.” 

Requesting Emergency Conservation Program Assistance for Flood Damage

Farmers and ranchers suffering severe damage from flooding can request assistance through FSA’s Emergency Conservation Program (ECP). Affected producers can request ECP assistance through their local FSA office.The types of ECP practices that can be available under this program include:• removing debris from farmland• grading, shaping or releveling severely damaged farmland• restoring permanent fences• restoring conservation structures and other similar installations ECP is administered by FSA to assist producers with the cost of recovery activities required to restore the agricultural land to pre-disaster conditions. Producers who sustained damage from this disaster event are encouraged to submit their request for assistance prior to beginning reconstructive work. Submitting a request after completing qualified reconstructive work may result in forfeiture of program eligibility.Producers can submit ECP applications through the FSA county office. FSA county committees will complete an evaluation of submitted requests and will request national funding based on an on-site inspection of the damaged land, taking into consideration the type and extent of the eligible damage. Completion of the on-site inspection does not guarantee that cost-share funding will be allocated. The use of obligated funds is limited to return the land to the relative pre-disaster condition. Conservation concerns that were present on the land prior to the disaster are not eligible for ECP assistance. Approved ECP applicants may receive up to 75 percent of the cost of completing the approved restoration activity.For more information on ECP, please contact your local FSA office. 

Vegan and vegetarian food cannot be labeled with meat or dairy specific terms like “burger” or “milk” in France

No longer can vegan and vegetarian food be labeled with meat or dairy specific terms like “burger” or “milk” in France.An amendment passed by the French Parliament now makes it illegal for food processors to label vegan and vegetarian food with terminology commonly used for meat and dairy products. This includes products originating from animals such as steak, cheese, sausage or any other terms used for traditional meat and dairy foods.According to the British Broadcasting Company, a violation of the new law could result in fines up to 300,000 Euros (US$363,156). 

EPA's Pruitt Signals No Apparent Let Up In RFS Waivers

EPA has received some 30 requests from refiners for waivers of meeting requirements under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), according to agency administrator Scott Pruitt.The agency received a batch of requests for exemptions for RFS requirements this year, Pruitt told lawmakers, after having received a wave of those requests from small refiners last year.The waivers have become a source of contention in the US biofuel industry, with refiners welcoming the actions and citing the costs to the industry from trying to meet the requirements. But biofuel proponents have complained about the waivers as the numbers approved by EPA have grown considerably compared to what historically has been the level of waivers granted each year. And biofuel backers note the requests are coming even as refiners are reporting hefty to record profits.

Senators Propose Modifications to ARC Program

Changes to the Ag Risk Coverage (ARC) program that started in the 2014 Farm Bill are being proposed by two lawmakers with an eye on the next version of the U.S. farm bill that the House and Senate are currently developing.Sens. John Thune, R-S.D., and Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, on Wednesday released their proposed improvements to ARC, with changes including the way the county revenue guarantee is calculated and to the payment trigger.The bill would utilize a plan previously released by Thune to calculate payments based on a county’s physical location. The measure would also cap reference prices at either the current level or no more than the 10-year average price for a commodity.Adjusting ARC to have a coverage level of 90% instead of the current 86% is another provision, and it would also use a three-year average price with a 10-year average market price as a floor for calculating ARC payments. Plus, the plan would also use a crop insurance trend-adjusted yield factor to calculate the ARC benchmark yield.The package would include an 80% "T-yield" for substitute yields if historical yields are missing or lower than 80%, versus the current T-yield substitution factor is 70%.Unlike the House farm bill, the Thune/Brown plan would keep the Individual ARC option for producers. Plus, the plan would also include an adjustment factor that could be used to calculate ARC wheat payments, when needed.However, no information is yet available on the cost for the option which could loom large in the farm bill process.

Washington Insider: NAFTA Talks Could Wrap Up Soon

Bloomberg reported this week that President Trump said NAFTA talks are “doing very nicely,” as negotiations between ministers from the U.S., Mexico and Canada “ramp up in Washington in a redoubled push for a deal.”Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo and Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland both attended meetings Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday at the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office in Washington.The sides have picked up the pace in recent weeks, though “the goal is unclear,” Bloomberg said. The U.S. has mused about a deal “in principle” but Mexico says it’s seeking a comprehensive agreement to update a 24-year-old deal. “Meanwhile, Trump’s latest comments are a mixed signal, saying talks are going well but also that he is reserving judgement."Under optimistic conditions, negotiators have a 75% chance of reaching a deal soon, Moises Kalach, the trade head for the Mexican business chamber said on Tuesday. An agreement on an updated NAFTA agreement could be reached in the next 10 days, he said.If no deal is reached in the coming days, it could make sense to put negotiations on hold until the end of the year or early 2019, given the presidential election in Mexico in July and the U.S. congressional midterm vote in November, Kalach said.Negotiating teams have agreed on nine or 10 more topic areas that are ready for ministers’ review and approval, Kalach said — but wide differences remain on some of the toughest issues, such as tightening up the rules of origin for cars and their components, aimed at boosting American manufacturing but that could upend existing supply chains.Canada’s Freeland said Tuesday’s talks focused on automotive rules of origin -- a crucial sticking point, which she sees as the linchpin to a deal and noted that negotiators have been having constructive talks on the subject for some time, moved ahead in part due to some creative thinking put forward by the U.S. side last month. Conceding that “there are other issues that still need to be resolved,” she maintained that “we think a win-win-win agreement is possible.”This week’s talks were expected to cover the most ground since the final official negotiating round in Mexico City in early March, according to a preliminary agenda obtained by Bloomberg. Topics include automotive rules, agriculture, and legal and institutional matters such as dispute settlement mechanisms.In the meantime, the New York Times is focusing on what it calls “another, potentially insurmountable obstacle ahead, and that is getting the administration’s deal through Congress.”That may not be so easy—depending on what the agreement eventually says, NYT says. On Wednesday, lawmakers from both parties expressed skepticism about the Trump administration’s negotiations and whether any deal that Trump reaches could be approved by the current Congress.In recent weeks, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has told members of Congress that he could take a more aggressive and potentially painful approach to ensure that the president’s deal is passed. He has warned congressional Republicans about the possibility of withdrawing from NAFTA altogether if they refuse to vote for it.Those warnings have not been well received among congressional Republicans, the Times said. Farm and border-state Republicans are already deeply unsettled by the president’s tariff threats on China, which has resulted in a tit-for-tat by Beijing that would hurt exports from their communities, including agricultural products like soybeans, pork and wheat. They would probably rebel if he moved to undermine NAFTA, which has become a crucial economic engine for those states, the Times said.Senator John Cornyn, R-Texas, and majority whip, made clear that the Senate would not simply rubber-stamp any deal that Mr. Trump’s trade team strikes and lamented that the administration had kept lawmakers largely in the dark.“I regret that the administration has not been communicating very well what they are negotiating and I hope they come up with something that we can pass out of here, because I think NAFTA is pretty important,” Cornyn said.If the president were to carry through on a threat to withdraw from the deal to force a vote in Congress, lawmakers could fight back, congressional aides said. They could pass legislation that alters the president’s authority to impose tariffs and other trade measures — or create laws to more clearly define the process for the United States to leave trade agreements.Top Republicans in the House also expressed trepidation on Wednesday about a NAFTA resolution. For example, Representative Kevin Brady, R-Texas, and the chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, said that the likelihood of such a deal passing in the House “depends on the quality of the agreement.”Brady, a staunch ally of Trump during the tax overhaul last year, has been critical of the president’s tariff threats. He said that he had encouraged Trump to deliver an agreement that bolstered American jobs, exports and economic growth.We will see. Trade deals affect very large, important markets and failure to adequately protect access there is likely to cause deeper political wounds than some in the administration seem to appreciate. This is a fight with huge stakes that producers should watch very carefully as it proceeds, Washington Insider believes. 

U.S. Beef Could Expand In E.U. To Help Avoid Trade War

The European Union is preparing to allow more tariff-free U.S. beef into the region as part of an attempt to avoid a trade war. Politico says the move comes at the same time French President Emmanuel Macron (Ma-CRAHN) and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are making high-level diplomatic trips to Washington, D.C. Both leaders are trying to dissuade President Donald Trump from slapping tariffs on European steel and aluminum imports, set to begin on May first. An EU concession on American beef may go a long way toward appeasing the U.S. President, who’s made it clear that Europe has “unacceptable” barriers to trade. “Our farmers can’t send their product into the European Union as easily as they should,” Trump says, “and we accept their products. So, we have to make a change, and they understand that.” To make the change happen, the EU would have to alter a 2009 agreement which allowed the U.S. to export 45,000 tons of hormone-free beef without paying dues. European agriculture associations typically don’t favor more beef imports, but Politico says they seem to be supportive of tweaking the quota, especially if hormone-free beef stays on the banned list.

EPA Chief Faces Scrutiny on Capitol Hill

Lawmakers peppered Environmental Protection Agency chief Scott Pruitt with questions on ethics and spending allegations that have prompted bipartisan calls for his ouster. An Associated Press report says the EPA boss was on the defensive as he blamed “half-truths” and “twisted” allegations as attempts to undermine the Trump administration’s anti-regulatory agenda. The public questioning on Capitol Hill comes after a month-long bout of headlines surrounding his outsized security spending, first-class flights, as well as a sweetheart deal on a condo lease from a lobbyist. Republicans who support Pruitt’s policy agenda are beginning to say his lapses in judgment can no longer be ignored. Democrats attacked Pruitt at the opening of the hearing. New Jersey Representative Frank Pallone said, “You are unfit to hold public office.” President Donald Trump is standing by his EPA chief. However, White House officials say behind closed doors that Pruitt’s job is in serious jeopardy. Pruitt addressed the allegations against him in passing during his opening statement. He did acknowledge there’s been “a learning curve” and that “facts are facts, fiction is fiction.”

Former Senators Ask Congress to Investigate EPA/RFS Waivers

Former Senators Byron Dorgan of North Dakota and James Talent of Missouri both played major roles in the legislation that established the current Renewable Fuels Standard. This week, the two say Congress should investigate the waivers to the RFS granted to more than two-dozen refineries by Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt. In a statement released by the National Biodiesel Board, both men say, “Lawmakers from across the heartland have already demanded the EPA stop abusing these waivers, but Congress needs to do more. The public deserves real answers from Administrator Pruitt about handouts granted under the cover of night.” The waiver provision established by Congress provided some flexibility in dealing with the smallest refining companies who produced fewer than 75,000 barrels a day. It was designed for unique cases that presented disproportionate economic hardship. “But the EPA has warped those provisions to grant tens of millions of dollars in regulatory handouts at the expense of farmers, biofuel workers, and American consumers,” says Dorgan and Talent. “Granting secretive ‘hardship’ waivers to some of the nation’s most profitable petroleum giants undermines the law and destroys demand for homegrown biofuels,” says Kurt Kovarik, NBB's vice president of federal affairs

Chinese Sorghum Importers Ask Government to Waive Tariff

Some Chinese sorghum importers have asked their government to waive the hefty tariff imposed last week on U.S. sorghum imports already at sea. A Reuters report says the request comes as companies are rushing to sell China-bound cargo currently stranded on the water at big discounts. The Commerce Ministry slapped a large 178.6 percent deposit on American sorghum in a trade row between the world’s two largest economies. Grain sorghum is used in animal feed and to make liquor. One source tells Reuters his company made the request of Beijing to impose the new tariff on shipments that left U.S. ports after April 18. Companies are making a bid to protect almost a dozen vessels shipping U.S. sorghum that had already left their ports. A second source at a private importer told Reuters that a group of companies, including one government-owned firm, met with Commerce Ministry officials to discuss concessions for the new tariff, but didn’t disclose details of what happened at the meeting. The scramble to secure government concessions underscores concerns among Chinese firms that the trade dispute between Washington and Beijing will inflict financial pain on China

Ag Groups Applaud Precision Ag Connectivity Act

The American Soybean Association is among agriculture groups applauding the Senate Commerce Committee for pushing the Precision Agriculture Connectivity Act of 2018 forward in the legislative process. ASA President John Heisdorffer says his group welcomes the Precision Agriculture Connectivity Act of 2018. “This legislation understands the unique needs of growers across rural America,” Heisdorffer says. “We urge swift passage in the U.S. Senate as wireless broadband connections in the field support farm operations and, in turn, rural communities.” The American Farm Bureau says the bill would create a task force designed to focus in on the connectivity and technology needs of modern farmers, who are too often without connectivity in the fields and on the ranches where they work. The Farm Bureau says precision agriculture maximizes yield, lowers environmental impact, and improves farm profitability, which is important at a time when farmers need to maximize every penny they can to survive. The Federal Communications Commission says 39 percent of rural Americans lack access to basic broadband services compared to only four percent of urban Americans.

Farmers’ Share of the Food Dollar at a Record Low

The Economic Research Service’s Food Dollar Series shows that the farmers’ share of the food dollar fell to 14.8 cents in 2016. That’s a 4.5 percent drop from the previous year and the lowest level since the series first launched in 1993. The farmers’ share of every $1 spent on domestically produced food represents the percentage of farm commodity sales tied to the food dollar expenditure. Non-farm related marketing associated with the food dollar rose to a record-high of 85.2 cents. Those expenses include things like transportation, processing, and marketing. The largest decline in the farmer share of the food dollar was in food not consumed at home. The family farm share of food consumed away from home dropped to 4.4 percent, ten percent lower than the previous year.  The smaller share of the food dollar consumed away from home is due to the cost of restaurant food service and preparation. For all but the food and beverage dollar consumed at home and the food at home dollar, the farmers' share of the food dollar is at record-low levels. 

April 1 inventory of feedlots over 1,000 head capacity was 11.729 million head, up 7.4 percent from last year

The April 1 inventory of feedlots over 1,000 head capacity was 11.729 million head, up 7.4 percent from last year.  This report was very close to pre-report estimates and contained no surprises. Feedlot marketings in March were 96.1 percent of last year, just about even with last year considering that there was one less March business day in 2018 compared to one year ago.  March placements were 90.7 percent of last year.  While close to expectations, this placement number is significant because it breaks a string of twelve consecutive months of year over year placement increases. Decreased March placements are not an indication of fewer total cattle supplies but rather are a confirmation of the change in feedlot timing in recent months.  Larger, drought-enhanced placements in recent months have built up feedlot inventories and have set the stage for larger than normal seasonal peak marketings in May and June.  Lower March placements are a reminder that, while the timing of feedlot production has changed somewhat with cattle entering the feedlot earlier than usual recently, fewer cattle are now available for placement and the overall number of cattle is unchanged.The April 1 quarterly breakdown shows that the number of steers on feed was 4.1 percent higher year over year, similar to the 4.4 percent increase on January 1.  Heifer feedlot inventories were up 14.0 percent compared to one year ago.  Heifers on feed began to increase sharply in mid-2017 with higher quarterly inventories July 1 (+10.6 percent) and October 1 (+13.0 percent) as well as January 1, 2018 (+16.0 percent) and now April.  The increase in heifers in feedlots is indicative of the slowdown in heifer retention in 2017 and continuing in 2018. The heifer slaughter that follows from increased heifers in feedlots provides an indication of the status of herd expansion in 2018.  In the past twelve months, heifers have represented an average of 34.3 percent of total steer and heifer slaughter.   Over the course of a cattle cycle, heifers account for about 37 percent of total yearling slaughter, a level that generally represents a stable herd size.  This percentage varies from roughly 31 percent during rapid herd expansion to about 40 percent during herd liquidation.  The current level of heifer slaughter is up from a recent low of 31.4 percent in mid-2016 but is still less than the long term average and certainly below levels that would suggest herd liquidation.  Heifer slaughter is increasing but is still at a level that suggests limited but slightly positive herd growth.The other component of herd inventory change is cow slaughter.  Beef cow slaughter for the year to date is up 10.6 percent year over year.  At the current pace, beef cow culling in 2018 would continue to climb from the low levels of recent years (record low in 2015) and return to normal levels this year.  Both heifer slaughter and beef cow slaughter patterns thus far are consistent with the idea of positive but small continued beef cow herd expansion in 2018.

Perdue authorizes movement of a modified, non-infectious version of the Foot and Mouth Disease

Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue has authorized the movement of a modified, non-infectious version of the Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) virus from the Plum Island Animal Disease Center to the U.S. mainland for the purposes of continued vaccine development and study. While modified FMD virus is unable to cause disease and presents no risk of transmitting the disease, it is still live FMD virus, and Federal law requires the Secretary’s approval for this movement.Identifying a vaccine that uses a modified virus will enable USDA to more quickly source and acquire FMD vaccine in the event of an outbreak of this devastating disease. With this announcement, vaccine companies may now apply for USDA permits to continue their work with this specific modified, non-infectious FMD virus in the United States. All permits granted would include appropriate biocontainment and use restrictions, and may be revoked if warranted.In order to protect our nation’s livestock, the live FMD virus was previously not allowed anywhere in the country except for the Plum Island Animal Disease Center, where it was held and worked with under very strict biocontainment procedures. However, with advances in technology, it is now possible to genetically modify the virus so that it is non-infectious. With this added protection, it is now possible to allow vaccine development within the U.S., rather than relying upon overseas sources.FMD is a highly contagious viral foreign animal disease that affects domestic livestock – including cattle, swine, sheep, goats, and domestic cervids – with reduced milk and meat productivity, illness, and death. 

Time Running Out to Participate in the 2017 Census of Agriculture

The National Ag Statistics Service wants to remind farmers and ranchers that the window is closing on the opportunity to participate in the 2017 Census of Agriculture. NASS has received more than 1.5 million completed questionnaires. However, the national return rate is currently lower than it was at this point in the 2012 Census. NASS is asking U.S. producers who have not returned their completed Census questionnaires to please do so as soon as possible in order to avoid follow-up phone calls or in-person visits. NASS Administrator Hubert Hamer says they’re very grateful for the responses they’ve received, but it’s important that the others who received a Census questionnaire join their neighbors, colleagues, friends, and family in being a part of the Census count. “If you produced and sold $1,000 or more of agricultural products in 2017, or normally would have produced and sold that much, we need to hear from you,” says Hamer. “If you’re a landowner who leases your land to a producer, we need to hear from you as well.” The Census of Agriculture is the only comprehensive source of agriculture data for every state and county in the nation. The data is used by policymakers, trade associations, researchers, agribusinesses, and many others.

Farm State Senators Worry About Trade During Hearing

The Senate Agriculture Committee convened a hearing on Tuesday and expressed a great deal of concern over the trade strategy of President Donald Trump and its effects on the U.S. farm economy. Politico says farm-state senators used the opportunity to direct Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue to impress on the Trump administration just how sensitive commodity markets are to trade actions. Committee Chair Pat Roberts of Kansas says producers are being used as pawns in Trump’s crackdown on what he argues are unfair trade practices by China and other countries. After a full year in the Trump administration, Politico says Perdue has gotten good at defending the president’s trade actions while assuring farmers he has their back. Perdue says the updated trade agreement between the U.S. and South Korea is an example that the strategy is working, but he did acknowledge there wasn’t much added benefit for food producers in the new agreement. In the meantime, Trump announced Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (Muh-NOO-chin) and others will be traveling to China in a few days to hopefully negotiate a deal to help both countries avoid slapping tariffs on each other’s goods.

NFU Board of Directors Opposes Current House Farm Bill

The National Farmers Union Board of Directors unanimously passed a resolution opposing the current version of the House Farm Bill that passed out of the Ag Committee last week. The Board called on House members to make significant changes in the legislation before passing it. The Board says in a release that, “The House Farm Bill, as currently written, lacks the improvements needed to help farmers cope with continued low commodity prices. The bill fails to provide farmers with the tools they need to be the best possible stewards of our natural resources, and it reverses progress toward expanding access to local, regional, and specialty markets.” The NFU Board says the House bill also makes “unnecessary cuts” to programs that feed hungry Americans. Among the changes recommended by the NFU Board, they’d like to increase PLC reference prices to improve the farm safety net and offset possible trade retaliation. They’d like to strengthen payment limitations and actively engaged requirements for Title 1 programs. The NFU would also like to see dairy farmers provided enhanced price supports and a mechanism in place that manages our nation’s milk inventories to meet market demand.

Trump Says NAFTA Talks Are “Doing Nicely”

President Donald Trump says this week that the North American Free Trade Agreement talks are “moving along nicely.” Bloomberg says trade ministers from Mexico, Canada, and the U.S. are meeting in Washington, D.C., and pushing to finish an agreement by early May. During a meeting with the president of France, Trump said, “NAFTA, as you know, is moving along. I could make a deal very quickly but I’m not sure that’s in the best interest of the United States. We’ll see what happens but we’re doing very well.” The trade head of the Mexican version of the Chamber of Commerce says an agreement on an updated NAFTA could be reached within the next ten days. If no deal is reached in the coming days, the Bloomberg report says it may make sense to put further negotiations on hold until the end of this year, or even early 2019. That’s because of the Mexican presidential election in July and the American midterm election in November. Negotiating teams have agreed on nine or ten more topic areas that are ready for the ministers to review. However, there are still some sticky issues left to deal with.

USDA Launches Website Promoting Rural Development Best Practices

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has launched a new interactive website to help identify best practices for building rural prosperity. Anne Hazlett, Assistant to the Secretary for Rural Development, says communities need forward-thinking strategies to build strong futures. “The Rural Development Innovation Center is focused on identifying unique opportunities, pioneering new, creative solutions to tough challenges, and making Rural Development’s programs easier to understand, use, and access,” she says. The webpage will highlight effective strategies that have been used to create jobs, build infrastructure, strengthen partnernships, and promote economic development in rural America. An interactive feature allows webpage visitors to submit comments on ways USDA can improve the Rural Development program delivery. The Center staff will review the citizen recommendations and direct resources, services, and expertise that will help their communities create transformative solutions to complex rural challenges. The website will also highlight USDA resources that can be used for investments in infrastructure and innovation. 

Cattlemen Invite President Trump and Vice President Pence to Survey Wildfire Damage in Oklahoma

WASHINGTON (April 25, 2018) - Today the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and the Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association invited President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence to visit Oklahoma and survey the damage caused by devastating wildfires in the western part of the state. Cattle producers and rural communities in Western Oklahoma are reeling from wildfires that have engulfed over 320,000 acres of land and continue to grow.   “In addition to the daily stress and anxiety caused by the wildfires, cattlemen and rural communities have suffered extensive financial losses, including homes, cattle, ranch equipment, and fencing,” the groups wrote in the letter. “Given the severity of the situation, we would like to extend an invitation for you both to visit the affected areas, meet with producers who have suffered losses, and see what help can be given to these great Americans.” According to reports from producers on the ground, total damage and losses are far worse than when wildfires last struck in 2017. The full impact of the wildfires will not be known until weather conditions change and the fires are under control. The groups noted in the letter that a visit from the President and Vice President “would be a welcome sign of support” for impacted communities. 

Senators praise Agriculture Secretary for his advocacy on agriculture

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- Republican and Democratic senators praised Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue on Tuesday for his advocacy on agriculture within the Trump administration, but urged him to be a stronger voice.In an opening statement at a hearing entitled "The State of Rural America," Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts, R-Kan., said, while it makes sense to "take a look" at the North American Free Trade Agreement and to hold trading partners such as China accountable to their World Trade Organization commitments, "trade actions like those we have seen on steel, aluminum, washing machines and solar panels also put the U.S. at risk of retaliatory measures that harm jobs, not only to agriculture but across all sectors.""History has shown us that far too often it is agriculture that bears the brunt of that harm," Roberts said. "I hope that the United States and China can work aggressively to resolve these issues before we enter a full-blown trade war."Senate Agriculture ranking member Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., added, "I share Chairman Roberts' concern on this. I believe we need tough trade enforcement when countries break the rules -- but we must do everything we can do ensure there are no unintended consequences for our farmers."The impact of retaliatory tariffs would be felt by farmers directly and indirectly. It doesn't just impact Washington state when the state can no longer ship apples to China -- it makes it harder for Michigan farmers to market their apples at a price that keeps them in business."But Stabenow added that "a flood of imports from Turkey is harming our cherry industry," and told Perdue that she has called on USDA "to protect our cherry growers from unfair imports by approving a bonus buy -- and I urge you to take action on their request."Stabenow said she appreciates Perdue's advocacy within the administration, but she noted that the White House had proposed budget cuts Congress rejected and said, "maybe we need to get you a megaphone because not everyone in the administration seems to be getting the message that we need to do more to improve the quality of life in rural America -- not less."(Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., the secretary's cousin, said later in the hearing that the secretary does not need a megaphone.)The Agriculture secretary limited his opening statement to acknowledging that times are bad in rural America and that he understands the anxiety of farmers about trade.Roberts noted that in trade negotiations any remarks are sensitive. Kansas sorghum growers were in his office the day President Donald Trump announces the tariffs on solar panels and China retaliated with sorghum tariffs, and one grower told him that he had lost 80 cents on the dollar, Roberts said."In some cases we are using farmers, ranchers, growers as a pawn," Roberts said.Perdue responded that Trump has a "unique" negotiating style that he hopes will work, but that in any case "I am not going to let them be the casualties."When Stabenow asked about trade, Perdue reminded her that the Michigan auto industry has been a loser under trade liberalization, but Stabenow responded that, while the trade situation is complicated, negotiations need to be done "in a very thoughtful way."Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., said he wanted to go on the record in opposition to the Trump administration's proposed "ad hoc" payments to farmers if they are hurt by trade policies."We urgently need well-crafted agreements that expand markets," Thune said.Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., urged the Trump administration to re-engage on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which later was negotiated by remaining countries into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Perdue said he agreed that TPP, which Trump withdrew from in the early days of his administration, could help agriculture.In what might be considered a summary of statements she is likely to make in her campaign for re-election, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., told Perdue that rural America faces the challenges of one of every three counties having "high poverty rates, lower farm and an aging population."The administration's messages on trade policy, Heitkamp said, "are not appropriate in a world in which the United States has only 5% of the world population.""We need a robust, pro-agricultural vision," Heitkamp said. "You present that. We don't hear that coming out of the White House."Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., led off the discussion of concerns about the Renewable Fuel Standard and the waivers from it that the Environmental Protection Agency has granted to some refiners.Perdue acknowledged that he believes the waivers have led to a reduction in the legally mandated 15 billion gallon use of corn ethanol, but reminded the senators that his influence is limited to talking to the president and EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt.Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, said that Pruitt had promised her that he would follow the law and its intent, but that she believes he is "trying to work his way around that."Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, thanked Perdue for his help in convincing the Trump administration that E15 should be sold year-round. (E15 is gasoline blended with 15% ethanol.)At the end of hearing, Roberts asked for and got a commitment from Perdue that he would support efforts to have the Agriculture Department run the National Bio and Agro-defense Facility (NBAF) under construction in Manhattan, Kan., to replace the facility on Plum Island, N.Y.NBAF is being built by the Homeland Security Department but Perdue said his "vision" is that USDA's expertise makes it the right department to operate it while maintaining a partnership with Homeland Security. 

NAFTA Ministers Back in Washington D.C. After Short Turnaround

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and his two counterparts in the North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations are back at it in Washington, D.C. This marks a quick turnaround for the Mexican Economy Secretary and Canadian Foreign Minister, who were just in Washington last week for a meeting that both countries described as “productive.” Negotiators stayed in D.C. over the weekend and kicked off their fourth-straight week of talks on Monday. One source told Politico that the pace of talks in basically up to Lighthizer, saying “concessions right now can only come from the USTR.” The source added that they haven’t seen any concessions from him yet. To further complicate things, President Trump once again took to Twitter and warned that the U.S. might make stricter immigration laws in Mexico “a condition of the new NAFTA agreement.” Mexico quickly dismissed the idea, saying it would be unacceptable to condition the renegotiation of NAFTA to migratory actions outside this framework of cooperation. In spite of the Twitter complication, the outlook is still described as hopeful that the ministers can get a deal done as soon as possible. The quicker it happens, the better the chance of getting an updated pact through Congress this year.

Farmers for Free Trade Report Highlights Damage from Chinese Retaliation

Farmers for Free Trade released a new report that highlights the significant impact that Chinese retaliation from steel and aluminum tariffs will have on a number of U.S. industries. The report shows that many American commodities will be hit hard, including U.S. wine, almonds, walnuts, pork, cherry, and several other commodities. The report also says certain states’ economies will be hit very hard. The report is part of an ongoing effort by Farmers for Free Trade to show the negative impacts tariffs on American agriculture, as well as amplify the voices of farmers who are hurt by them. Some of the top states hit hardest will include California, Iowa, Washington, Missouri, and North Carolina. Chinese retaliatory tariffs are 15 percent on most products, while U.S. pork exports face a 25 percent tariff. Former Senators Richard Lugar and Max Baucus, Co-Chairs of Farmers for Free Trade, say tariffs end up as a tax on American farmers. “They increase the cost of exporting, depress the prices of farm futures, and end up hurting the bottom lines of farmers across the country,” the two say in a release. “They also incentivize trading partners like China to look elsewhere for their imports.” Lugar and Baucus point out that means trading relationships that took decades to develop can vanish overnight. Farmers for Free Trade is a bipartisan campaign to rebuild support for trade at the grassroots level.

Sorghum Prices Falls Three Times Lower After China Tariff Announcement

Grain-handling company Scoular tells Bloomberg that sorghum bids in the Gulf of Mexico have all but disappeared in the wake of a Chinese decision to impose a 179 percent tariff on U.S. imports. Bob Ludington oversees the Omaha, Nebraska-based company’s grain and oilseed division, and says there’s been very little trade. While some U.S. grain elevators are still bidding for sorghum, he says, “Nobody is looking for it in the Gulf.” China had been the biggest buyer of U.S. sorghum. Chinese officials announced there would be an investigation into American shipments back in February. At that point, sorghum prices dropped because of tariff fears, erasing the premium that the grain achieved over corn prices in states like Kansas. Now that the Chinese tariff is in place, sorghum prices must drop in order to attract more domestic and international customers. Sorghum had recently been priced out of the U.S. animal-feed market because of strong Chinese demand. Where excess supplies head now isn’t certain, but Ludington says Mexico is one potential destination. 

Weekend Rains Help Contain Oklahoma Wildfires

Much-needed rain fell in northwestern Oklahoma, an area that’s been hit hard by recent wildfires. Both major wildires had been burning since April 12, damaging approximately 350,000 acres. Rain fell on April 20-21 in the counties hit hardest by those wildfires, helping officials in containing the blazes. An Oklahoma forestry report issued this week shows both major fires are contained and the acreage affected by wildfires has decreased. The 34 Complex Fire has burned over 62,400 acres and is 94 percent contained. The Rhea (ree-ah) Fire has destroyed almost 270,000 acres and is 74 percent contained. The rainfall moisture from last weekend almost equaled the total amount of moisture those same areas had picked up over the previous six months combined. The rainfall totaled over one inch in the area affected by the 34 Complex Fire, and the area affected by the Rhea Fire received just over three-quarters of an inch of rain through the weekend. The weather forecast is promising more rain chances through the rest of the week in areas hit hardest by the wildfires.

EPA Administrator Faces “Watershed” Moment

Scott Pruitt, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, is approaching his two separate committee hearings in the House of Representatives with sagging support on the hill. Even his most dedicated backers are starting to express concerns about the controversies surrounding the administrator that have continued to swirl. Oklahoma Senator Jim Inhofe, perhaps his biggest ally in Congress, even says it’s “appropriate to have a hearing, in so far as any accusation having to do with his office is concerned.” A CNBC report says, since the hearings were announced, revelations regarding a Washington apartment rental deal with a lobbyist have sparked allegations of ethics abuses and lavish spending. The government’s top watchdog determined just last week that the EPA broke the law by installing a $43,000 soundproof booth in Pruitt’s office. Pruitt will go before the House Committee on Energy and Commerce’s Subcommittee on Environment Thursday morning. He then will appear before the Appropriations Committee’s Subcommittee on Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies in the afternoon. The CNBC report says an anonymous White House source says the administration may have told conservative lawmakers not to defend Pruitt too stridently. 

2018 Omnibus Bill Nixes DUNS and SAM Requirements for Farmers

WASHINGTON, APRIL 24 -- Effective immediately, Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) financial assistance program participants will no longer need a Dun and Bradstreet Universal Number System (DUNS) number, or to register in the System for Award Management (SAM). The Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2018 (2018 Omnibus Bill), signed by President Donald Trump on March 23, eliminated these requirements.According to U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue, DUNS and SAM were designed for billion-dollar government contractors, not everyday farmers trying to support their families. These changes help streamline the customer experience of farmers, which is a top priority at USDA, he said."This change greatly simplifies the contracting process for our customers and staff," said Acting NRCS Chief Leonard Jordan. "Conservation program participants will soon receive letters from their local NRCS office with more details."The exemption does not apply to any current or future agreements or federal contracts with eligible entities, project sponsors, vendors, partners, or other non-exempt landowners or producers.DUNS/SAM registration is still required for:Partnership agreements entered through the Regional Conservation Partnership Program (RCPP).All agreements with eligible entities under the Farm and Ranch Lands Protection Program (FRPP)Agreements under the Agricultural Land Easement (ALE) component of ACEP.Partnership agreements under the Wetland Reserve Enhancement Program (WREP) component of ACEP-Wetland Reserve Easements (WRE).Watershed operations agreements with project sponsors.Emergency Watershed Protection Program (EWP) agreements with project sponsors, including Recovery and Floodplain Easements.All cooperative, contribution, interagency, or partnership agreements of Federal contracts used by NRCS to procure goods or services.NRCS advises participants in its programs to ignore any emails, phone calls or other communications from third-party vendors offering assistance for registering in SAMS or applying for a DUNS number.To learn more about NRCS financial and technical assistance, go to www.nrcs.usda.gov. 

Rally in fed cattle prices produced a $135 per head improvement in feedyard closeouts last week

A $3 per cwt. rally in fed cattle prices produced a $135 per head improvement in feedyard closeouts last week, erasing a $43 per head loss and producing a $92 profit. The 5-area direct steer price was $121.78 per cwt., up from the previous week’s $119.18, according to the Sterling Beef Profit Tracker.Closeouts also benefitted from a decrease in the cost of feeder cattle calculated against last week’s marketings. The price of feeder cattle calculated against the fed cattle sales were $153.71, or, $12.57 per cwt. lower. The cost of finishing a steer last week was calculated at $1,602, which is $236 higher than the $1,366 a year ago. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing Inc., Vale, Ore.Beef packer operating margins slipped $51 per head to $123. The beef cutout declined $1.66 per cwt. to $209.74.A month ago cattle feeders were earning $127 per head, while a year ago profits were calculated at $461 per head. Feeder cattle represent 74% of the cost of finishing a steer compared with 72% a year ago.Farrow-to-finish pork producers saw their margins improve slightly to a $2 per head loss, compared with losses of $18 per head last week. Lean carcass prices traded at $57.41 per cwt., a $7.03 per cwt. improvement from the previous week. A year ago pork producers lost an average of $5 per head. Pork packer margins improved $8 per head to $33.Cash prices for fed cattle are $10 per cwt. lower than the same week a year ago. Lean hog prices are about $1 per cwt. higher than last year.Sterling Marketing president John Nalivka projects cash profit margins for cow-calf producers in 2018 will average $115 per cow. That would be $43 per head less than the estimated average profit of $158 for 2017. Estimated average cow-calf margins were $173 in 2016, and $438 per cow in 2015.For feedyards, Nalivka projects an average profit of $67 per head in 2018, which would be $169 less than the average of $236 per head in 2017. Nalivka expects packer margins to average about $135 per head in 2018, up from $120 in 2017.For farrow-to-finish pork producers, Nalivka projects 2018 profit margins will average $4 per head, compared to $21 in 2017. Pork packers are projected to earn $19 per head in 2018, down from $25 profit per head in 2017. 

Rail shippers in Canada and the U.S.breathing a sigh of relief

Rail shippers in Canada and the U.S. could be heard breathing a sigh of relief late Friday evening after the CP announced it had come to what may be just a temporary agreement with the two unions that had planned to strike April 21. If that strike occurs, it will disrupt rail movement in and out of Canada and the western U.S. because they rely on service from the CP.The CP announced April 20, "This evening, we reached an agreement with both the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference-Train & Engine (TCRC) and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW), which averts the potential work stoppage of 12:01 a.m. ET tomorrow, April 21, 2018. As such, CP's embargoes for shipments routing to and from CP Canadian locations has been cancelled effective immediately. CP will immediately begin to execute a safe and structured start-up of its train operations in Canada."However, it does not appear that a strike is completely off the table. The Minister of Labor directed the Canadian Industrial Relations Board to administer a ratification vote on each of the company's final offers to members of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (Teamsters) and the IBEW, according to the CP.According to CBC Canada, Teamsters Canada President Doug Finnson said in a statement, "CP succeeded in delaying the inevitable. The government will bring this ridiculous offer to our members and we strongly recommend that members vote against it. I would like to reassure our members that we have given nothing up."The Teamsters and the IBEW only agreed to postpone a strike until after the vote, but Finnson said, "CP has exhausted all of its possibilities and will have to eventually face its workers." Finnson described CP as victims "of their own aggressive behavior," with the union charging that Teamsters had filed thousands of contract violations grievances and multiple unfair labor practice complaints against its employer, according to CBC.Until the unions vote and accept an offer by the CP, the threat of a strike is still imminent. Stay tuned. 

Washington Insider: Congress Sets Modest To-Do List as Polarized Campaign Begins

Bloomberg is reporting this week that Republicans are now showing little appetite for big action as election challenges loom. The House took much of last week off and doesn’t get back to Washington until today. The Senate is bogged down in confirmation hearings. And many lawmakers are already focused on their first election campaigns since President Trump took office.Democrats are working hard to take the House or Senate majority in November -- or both. As a result, as in most election years, Congress’s legislative schedule is light on high-profile initiatives, especially compared to last year’s agenda featuring massive tax cuts and the unsuccessful attempt to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.Lame-duck House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., insists he’ll finish this term with a focus on bills to encourage employment and job training. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is limited by Senate rules that require help from Democrats to advance legislation. The Senate has even struggled to confirm Trump administration nominees, such as Thursday’s 50-49 vote on Jim Bridenstine to lead NASA.So Congress will concentrate mainly on the meat and potatoes of government—and lawmakers will be required to keep returning to Washington, even as they campaign for re-election at home. One such item is the farm bill—which usually is a bipartisan measure that unites lawmakers from rural states with supporters of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.This time, however, the House Agriculture Committee last week passed a GOP-only version with Democrats withholding their votes mostly in opposition to a provision expanding work requirements for some SNAP recipients. The Senate Agriculture Committee’s Republican and Democratic leaders say they’re working on a bipartisan bill that will largely ignore the House changes. The current farm legislation expires at the end of September, and a simple extension may be necessary.In addition, Bloomberg says, several proposals for legislation may simply be put off. For example, some Republicans want to vote to make tax cuts for individuals permanent—last year’s tax overhaul permanently reduced the corporate rate, while the lower rates for individuals are set to expire after 2025.“We fully intend to make these things permanent,” Ryan said last week, "and that’s something we’ll be acting on this year.” However, Republicans disagree on whether this idea is a political winner, in part because the effort would remind people that their tax cut is only temporary. McConnell said he would consider it, but he’s skeptical there’s a desire in the Senate to vote this year. Republicans won’t use a fast-track budget process that would allow them to act without Democratic support.Separately, tax professionals have urged lawmakers to make technical corrections to the tax legislation, including provisions affecting net operating losses, charitable deductions, and full and immediate expensing. But so far, Republican leaders have signaled they won’t vote on a stand-alone bill before November, Bloomberg said.The House and Senate have taken different approaches to rolling back banking regulations. The House last year passed its plan which would rip up major parts of the Dodd-Frank law passed after the 2008 financial crisis, repeal the Volcker Rule and scrap the fiduciary rule, which requires brokers to put customers’ interests ahead of their own when handling retirement accounts.The Senate last month passed a bipartisan plan that raises the asset threshold for banks to be designated as systemically important financial institutions, subject to stricter Federal Reserve supervision. While intended to ease regulations for smaller banks, it doesn’t go as far as some Republicans and Wall Street bankers wanted.In the Senate, pressure is growing to complete confirmation hearings for dozens of judicial and executive branch nominees, including administration choices to replace leadership at the State Department and Central Intelligence Agency.And, the House and Senate Appropriations Committees are taking the president at his word when he said he won’t sign any more spending bills like the $1.3 trillion omnibus that became law in March.At this time, the House plans to consider 12 appropriations bills in May, and the Senate will try to pass at least a handful of them before the August recess. Still, the Senate is unlikely to pass them all before the 2019 fiscal year begins Oct. 1, which means Congress will need a short-term extension to avoid a government shutdown.Administration officials say they wanted to retroactively cut as much as $60 billion from the 2018 funds, but McConnell said he’s not interested in canceling any money after months of delicate bipartisan negotiations.Also, lots can happen even as Congress plans to coast into the election, Bloomberg says. A Senate bill to protect Special Counsel Robert Mueller could gain urgency if Trump threatens his investigation. Trump’s trade negotiators could also send a retooled North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for approval. And Paul Ryan could face calls for a pre-election succession battle for House speaker, even though he promised members he plans to “run through the tape” with a strong finish to his term.So, we will see. It now seems like the farm bill faces highly controversial debates in both chambers, fights producers should watch closely as they emerge, Washington Insider believes. 

Supreme Court of Canada Ruling in 'Beer Case' Keeps Supply/Management Programs Intact

Canadian provinces and territories have a constitutional right to restrict imports of goods from each other, provided those restrictions are not primarily put in place to restrict trade, according to a Supreme Court of Canada ruling.The ruling in the so-called "beer case" not only prevents easier access for many Canadians who were hoping to gain easier access to cheaper or in-demand products from other provinces, but it also appears to keep the supply management programs for dairy and others intact. The case focused on the interpretation of section 121 of the Constitution Act. That states that products from any province "shall... be admitted free into each of the other provinces." But a Supreme Court of Canada ruling in 1921 found that provision only meant the products had to be free from tariffs, but that limits on quantity could still apply.The court also mentioned the supply management programs that some feared could be removed if the court ruled in favor of the New Brunswick resident. Specifically, the court said that if it was determined that section 121 of the Constitution Act applied in this case, "Agricultural supply management schemes, public health driven prohibitions, environmental controls, and innumerable comparable regulatory measures that incidentally impede the passage of goods crossing provincial borders may be invalid."

Comprehensive New NAFTA Coming Soon

Negotiators from Mexico, the U.S., and Canada are still pushing hard to get a “comprehensive” new North American Free Trade Agreement in place. Politico says negotiators from the three NAFTA countries have been meeting regularly in recent weeks, hoping for breakthroughs on some of the toughest issues yet to deal with. Those remaining issues include auto rules of origin, labor, and dispute settlement mechanisms. “We are certainly in a more intense period of the negotiations and are making good progress,” says Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer appeared confident in recent meetings with administration officials and Congress that he will be able to reach a preliminary NAFTA agreement in the next couple of weeks. The goal would then be to have a preliminary agreement in place by May fourth. U.S. officials have set a goal of Congressional approval before the lawmakers head home for the December holidays on December 13. Mexico’s own legislative session ends on August 31 and any renegotiated deal would have to be passed before then. 

Mexico/European Union Reach Trade Deal

The European Commission announced over the weekend that the European Union and Mexico had reached a free trade deal. A CNN Money report says the deal virtually eliminates tariffs on “practically all goods” traded between EU members and Mexico. The EU and Mexico said last year they would upgrade their trade talks to update the agreement they signed back in 2000. The announcement came at the same time that the U.S. was threatening to pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Mexico and the EU appeared to take a shot at U.S. President Donald Trump when they announced the deal, calling it a defense of open and rules-based trade. The European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, said over the weekend that Mexico and the EU worked together to reach a mutually beneficial outcome. “We did it as partners who are willing to discuss, to defend their interests, while, at the same time, being willing to compromise to meet each other’s expectations,” says Juncker. The deal marks a move by Mexico to lessen its reliance on the U.S. as its main trading partner.

Treasury Secretary Optimistic on Settling Trade Dispute

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank both issued warnings that trade disputes could put a healthy global economic expansion in jeopardy. An Associated Press report says U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (Muh-NOO-chin) showed cautious optimism over the weekend that the U.S. and China could settle their differences without a full-blown trade war. Mnuchin met recently with finance officials from Japan, China, and Europe to discuss a series of punitive tariffs the Trump Administration unveiled recently against China and other trading partners. Mnuchin wouldn’t tell reporters how close the U.S. was to resolving the various trade disputes, but he did say that progress has been made. In a speech earlier this month, Chinese president Xi (Zhee) Jinping said his country would open itself wider to foreign companies. That raised hopes that the dispute with Washington, D.C., could be resolved. Mnuchin recently discussed Xi’s proposals with Chinese officials, saying “we’re cautiously optimistic.” The Treasury Secretary says he may soon travel to Beijing for further talks with Chinese officials.

Wildfire Livestock Losses Will Qualify for Financial Help

Livestock producers who lost animals in the central plains’ wildfires may qualify for the USDA Farm Service Agency’s Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP). An Oklahoma State University Extension report says the LIP program provides assistance to producers who’ve experienced abnormal livestock deaths due to a number of different conditions, ranging from adverse weather, certain disease outbreaks, or animals reintroduced into the environment by the government. The wildfires in northwestern Oklahoma more than qualify as an adverse weather-related loss. LIP payments are made by calculating 75 percent of the fair market value for the affected livestock, as determined by the Commodity Credit Corporation. Producers need to file a notice of the livestock losses directly to their county FSA offices. In order to be eligible for the program, growers must have had legal possession of the livestock, with the deaths happening no later than 60 days from the ending date of the disaster. Livestock must have been utilized for commercial use as part of a farming and ranching operation on the day they died. There are exceptions to which animals are covered on different operations, and producers should check with their local FSA offices for more information.

CA Judge Says Glyphosate Can Be Listed Under Prop 65

A California Appeals Court sided with the Center for Food Safety and the state of California in affirming that Monsanto’s glyphosate pesticide can be listed under Prop 65. The listing says glyphosate is a known carcinogen. Monsanto filed a lawsuit challenging a California announcement that it would be listing glyphosate, the active ingredient in Monsanto’s Roundup herbicide, under California’s Prop 65. The proposition requires notification and labeling of all chemicals known to cause cancer, birth defects, or other types of reproductive harm. Prop 65 also prohibits their discharge into drinking waters of the state. The Center for Food Safety then intervened in the case after Monsanto filed suit, saying the glyphosate listing under Prop 65 was correct and the public had a right to know when it’s being exposed to cancer-causing chemicals. In 2015, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) concluded that glyphosate is "probably carcinogenic." California subsequently issued the notice of intent to list glyphosate as a Proposition 65 chemical based on the IARC finding. 

Rabobank: Challenges Ahead for U.S. Global Pork Trade

A Rabobank analysis says the proposed Chinese tariff on U.S pork imports could cost American producers $6 to $8 per head. The Rabobank Pork Quarterly Q2 report says the China-U.S. tension exemplifies what could be a challenging year ahead for the pork industry in 2018. African swine fever in Europe could be another challenge in the global pork trade. The report says agility will be a big key in navigating what could be an uncertain global market. The wildcard is whether or not China opts to crack down on U.S. pork exports shipped via Hong Kong. January U.S. pork shipments grew five percent year on year, but U.S. pork exports are slowing due to the uncertainty over Chinese tariffs. The report says South Korea, the third-largest U.S. export market, might be a bright spot. Renegotiation of the KORUS trade pact should spur demand into Korea, as well as neighboring Asian countries. Rabobank says the most critical piece of the puzzle is successfully renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement, as 40 percent of all U.S. pork exports go to Mexico and Canada. 

China Accused the US of Throwing Its Weight around In the Trade Arena

The latest exchange between the U.S. and China on trade have China the U.S. advocates principles of fairness but is not living up to them.Foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying responded last week to reports the U.S. Treasury Department is considering using an emergency law to curb Chinese investments in sensitive technologies. “The U.S. is thinking and acting like a bully — only it can have high tech and others cannot. With regard to the high-tech restrictions, they are citing the reason of national security, but their motivation is protectionism. Is the U.S. really that fragile?” Hua said at a ministry daily briefing.The U.S. Treasury Department is considering using an emergency law to curb Chinese investments in sensitive technologies as the Trump administration looks to punish China for what it sees as violations of American intellectual property rights. A law that may be used is known as the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, passed in 1977, which could affect foreign investment in industries like semiconductors and 5G.

Bayer Says Russia Has Now Cleared Their Takeover of Monsanto

Russian antitrust agency FAS has now given a green light to the Bayer purchase of Monsanto, Bayer has announced. "Bayer has agreed to enable the transfer of defined technologies to Russian recipients in the area of seeds breeding and digital farming for a period of five years," the company said in a statement.Bayer will share some of its genetic expertise on corn, wheat rapeseed, soybean and vegetable seeds, Bayer said, along with giving "non-discriminatory" access to digital farming technologies once they were available in Russia. The firm has already gained approval from the European Union (EU) and reports have indicated there has been an agreement in principle reached with the U.S. Department of Justice for the deal to go through.

Washington Insider: Impact of China Trade Fight

This week POLITICO reported that a forthcoming report from Purdue University says that U.S. soybean exports to China could fall very sharply if the trade battle between the world’s two largest economies prompts Beijing to slap on retaliatory tariffs.The study comes after China announced earlier this month that U.S. soybeans could be hit with a 25% tariff increase if the administration “pulls the trigger” on planned tariffs to punish Beijing for its forced technology transfers.The report says that Brazil would come out as the big winner and China turns there increasingly for soybeans. Brazil is the largest soybean exporter to China, a title it gained from the United States seven years ago.The implied trade adjustment would be complex, and U.S. growers could find some substitutes for its loss in business by expanding in other markets that now buy from Brazil. “Brazil will take a big chunk of our market with China, and we’ll take a chunk of Brazil’s market elsewhere,” Wally Tyner, a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue and author of the report, told POLITICO. The European Union, Mexico, Indonesia and Japan are among the nations likely to increase imports from the US, Tyner added.However, the worst news is that even by cutting into Brazil’s other markets, “there is no combination of alternative routes available that could sufficiently make up for a major loss of business with China – a market that accounts for roughly 61 percent of U.S. exports and is worth nearly $14 billion.”Other analysts agree. For example, “Even assuming these other markets can grow, they probably can’t grow to match what China used to do,” said Chad Hart, an associate professor of economics at Iowa State University. “China is such a dominant player. You can’t even put together the rest to add up to China in the market right now.”Furthermore, the coming farm bill fight looks increasingly difficult, POLITICO says. Democrats have gone so far as to suggest that the House Agriculture Committee’s approach to SNAP policy is being heavily influenced, if not driven by, House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., That view appears to have been bolstered this week.On Thursday, Ryan highlighted the farm bill as part of the GOP's "next big push" — a new focus on "workforce development.""What we believe will help get people from welfare to work is to have a work requirement," Ryan said during an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, who asked the speaker about how much there is to get done this year. Hewitt ticked off lingering Republican priorities, including another round of tax changes, cutting regulations and getting appropriations bills passed.Ryan immediately brought up the stricter work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program that are proposed in the House farm bill draft, along with its call to ramp up investment in SNAP employment and training programs.The bill would invest the savings you get from a work requirement into making sure you can give people that transition training they need to get the skills they need to get the careers they want," Ryan said, ostensibly referring to the bill's call to increase SNAP Employment & Training spending tenfold in three years.Ryan argued that while there are nearly 7 million open jobs in the United States, there are also “millions of able-bodied adult recipients of SNAP who aren't working and aren't looking for a job.”"We want to get them into careers," he said. "And that, along with career and technical education reform, so that people can get skills they need and want to get careers that are out there, that is the final big installment of Our Better Way agenda."Democrats who are critical of the House bill disagree sharply, and there is considerable talk in Washington that the majority will face a significant challenge in passing the bill with only Republican votes, largely because of efforts to impose tougher work requirements on the nutrition programs.When asked about whether Ryan is calling the shots on the nutrition title, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Mike Conaway reminded reporters that he began his recent review of SNAP before Ryan was speaker and John Boehner held that position. Ryan supports the committee’s work, but isn’t the driving force, Conaway told POLITICO.So, we will see. This year’s farm bill debate is expected to begin in earnest early next month and continue to be both bitterly contentious and highly focused on national social issues as well as on those of immediate concern to producers, Washington Insider believes. 

Peterson: Pelosi Didn’t Direct Farm Bill, but Ryan May Have

Republicans in the House have accused Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of pushing Democrats on the House Agricultural Committee to oppose the House version of the farm bill. The biggest objection is over proposed changes to the nutrition title. However, ranking member Collin Peterson of Minnesota told the Hagstrom Report that he hadn’t discussed the farm bill with her until last Tuesday evening. Peterson described Pelosi as surprised that Republicans accused her of being behind the Democrats opposition to the farm bill. The House Ag Committee approved the bill on a party-line vote of 26-20, with all Democrats opposed. Pelosi had issued a statement earlier criticizing the farm bill. However, Peterson said he’d told her they would talk about the bill when he had something to tell her, and that was the Tuesday before the markup. Peterson says Pelosi was not aware of the detailed politics in the committee Democrats’ opposition to the bill. Peterson says he’s seen evidence that the retiring Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, is behind the changes to the nutrition title, which attach work requirements to the food stamp program. He says Ryan sees it as his welfare reform bill before he leaves Congress. Peterson says, “The Speaker put this in the bill because he couldn’t get anything else done with welfare reform.”

Wildfire Aid Amendment Included in Farm Bill Proposal

Wildfires have burned major portions of Oklahoma, as well as several other areas in the High Plains, over the past week. In an attempt to give better aid to people in those areas, a Drover’s report says Kansas Republican Representative Roger Marshall proposed an amendment that was included in the House Farm Bill, which passed out of the Ag Committee on April 18. Marshall says the wildfires burning across Kansas and Oklahoma bring back memories of the wildfires that burned large numbers of acres in 2017. “While the USDA response to help producers recover has been good, it’s important that we take time to figure out how to improve ways to help farmers in the future,” he says. Two separate fires in northwest Oklahoma have burned more than 350,000 acres since April 12. Kansas, Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado have all been dealing with smaller wildfires over the past few weeks. The amendment is intended to streamline the application and approval processes for producers to get resources more quickly when applying to the Emergency Conservation Program to rebuild their fences. The amendment also simplifies the program administration for Farm Service Agency employees. There aren’t any guarantees the amendment stays in the finished 2018 Farm Bill.

Dicamba Legal Battle Continues in Arkansas

Nearly 200 farmers have obtained temporary restraining orders against the Arkansas in-season ban on dicamba use. A DTN report says judges in three counties have granted restraining orders in response to last-minutes complaints filed by farmers. The office of State Attorney General Leslie Rutledge is filing appeals of those decisions to the state Supreme Court. In the meantime, a spokeswoman for the attorney general’s office says those farmers are free to use dicamba while the orders are in place. Nicole Ryan, communications director for the attorney general, says the state Plant Board will enforce the federal label requirements for the farmers who are spraying dicamba while the country restraining orders are in place. “The attorney general will be seeking expedited stays from the supreme court, which would halt the judges’ decisions until the appeals are decided,” Ryan says. In spite of the temporary restraining orders, Monsanto has opted not to sell its XtendiMax herbicide with Vapor Grip Technology, even though it’s registered for use in Arkansas on soybeans and cotton. Spokesman Kyle Richards says the company needs a stable and predictable environment before they’re able to make their product available to growers that want to use it. The Arkansas State Plant Board made it illegal to use dicamba between April 15 and October 31. 

Soybean Farmers Can’t Replace Chinese Business

U.S. soybean exports could drop as much as 65 percent if the back-and-forth trade rhetoric battle between the two largest economies causes China to slap on retaliatory tariffs. Politico says that number comes from a soon-to-be-published report out of Purdue University. Earlier this month, China said it will put a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans if President Trump follows through on his plan to punish China for forced technology transfers by implementing American tariffs on Chinese goods. If the trade war actually happens and tariffs are put in place, China will rely on Brazil soybeans to fill in the gap. Brazil is currently the largest soybean exporter to China. U.S. soybean farmers likely could find some substitute business by expanding into other markets that currently import Brazilian beans. Wally Tyner, professor of ag economics at Purdue, says, “Brazil will take a big chunk of our market with China, and we’ll take a chunk of Brazil’s business in other countries.” However, increasing exports to other countries like the European Union, Mexico, Indonesia, and Japan, still won’t make up for a major loss of business with China, worth nearly $14 billion.  

Russia Approves Bayer Acquisition of Monsanto

Bayer announced another country has given its approval of the company’s purchase of Monsanto. A Dow Jones report says Russia has given conditional approval of Bayer’s $57 billion acquisition of Monsanto if the German company agrees to transfer certain technologies to Russian recipients. Under the approval terms, Bayer agreed to transfer molecular breeding assets in several crops for a period of five years. The company didn’t specify who the Russian recipients of the transfer would be. Bayer says it’s agreed to grant non-discriminatory access to digital-farming technologies after the products have been launched in Russia. The approval means Bayer is one step closer to achieving its goal of acquiring Monsanto, first announced in 2016. Bayer still plans on closing out the process in the second quarter of this year. Bayer got conditional approval from the European Commission in March and still awaits approval from the U.S. Department of Justice.

Rural Mainstreet Index Hurt by Trade Concerns

The Rural Mainstreet Index, which measures the economic outlook in rural America, was hit hard by rural bankers who expressed concerns about trade tensions and their effect on the farm economy. “An unresolved North American Free Trade Agreement and rising trade tensions with China are significant concerns,” says Ernie Goss, Creighton University economist and author of the Rural Mainstreet Index. The confidence index is a sub-category of the overall index and expresses the outlook for six months into the future. It dropped from 58 in March to an index of 50 this month. The index range is 0 to 100, with 50 being a growth-neutral reading. The overall index dropped somewhat but did remain above growth-neutral for a third-straight month. Goss says that indicates an upward trend with improving economic growth. “However, weak farm income continues to weigh on the rural economy,” says Goss. Bankers in the ten-state RMI district have unresolved concerns about trade matters. Over three-quarters of rural bankers (76.2%) say export markets are very important to their local economy. 

US And Japan Agree To Begin Talks on Trade

The U.S. and Japan have agreed to begin talks on a set of "free, fair and reciprocal trade deals" to promote economic development in the Indo-Pacific, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Wednesday after he failed to secure exemptions for steel and aluminum tariffs imposed in March by Trump."In order to benefit both Japan and the US, we'll further expand both trade and investment between the two countries," Abe said during a joint news conference with Trump after their summit meeting in Mar-a-Lago. Abe did not say Japan was going to start talks on a bilateral free trade agreement with the US, emphasizing that Tokyo still believes that the CPTPP (the successor to TPP) is the best choice for both countries. Trump withdrew from that pact on his third day in office.

What Trump Wants To Get Back Into TPP

Usually reliable sources say President Donald Trump wants the 10 members of the revised Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to commit to bilateral trade agreement talks with the United States, in return for the U.S. coming back to the Asia-Pacific trade accord.That could allow a "win-win" for all parties concerned, according to the White House. Last week, Trump dispatched White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to begin work on a potential U.S. re-entry into TPP. But his later tweets indicated he may be backpedaling on the issue. However, USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue still is touting the fact Trump asked Kudlow and Lighthizer to look into the matter.

Washington Insider: Trade Policies and Rural Politics

While the implications of tax policies on the fall elections are uncertain just now, but trade policy impacts may be even more difficult to appraise—and much of the media has an especially hard time with trade policy. For example, during the 2016 campaign, both candidates opposed most aspects of trade agreements—and the press regularly reported as fact political observations about the negative impact of trade on U.S. jobs--which were often far off the mark.However, the New York Times carried a long report on Thursday suggesting that the administration’s hard line on China will cost votes among groups that went heavily to the President in 2016.Looking mainly at trade policy, the Times sees “stern warnings” coming from all over the Midwest about the political peril for Republicans in President Donald Trump’s recent decision to slap tariffs on foreign competitors—and thus inviting retaliatory tariffs on American agriculture.Soybeans are America’s second largest export to China, the Times says, and that country’s proposed 25% duties on the crop would hit hardest in states like Iowa, Kansas and Minnesota — where there are highly competitive House races — as well as Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota, whose Senate contests may determine control of the chamber.Who knew? Well, almost everybody, the Times suggests. “By proposing the tariffs, Mr. Trump has moved to fulfill a central promise of his campaign: confronting those countries he believes are undermining American industry.”However, his goal — to revive the steel and aluminum industries, thereby aiding the Rust Belt states that were crucial to his election — has effectively prioritized one element of the Trump political coalition over another, larger bloc of voters. “That larger segment, the farm belt, is essential to Republican success in the midterm elections and beyond.”“They’re not in touch with the reality of the Midwest and the impact that the tariffs would have,” said Bart Bergquist, a biology professor and part-time farmer who lives on 10 acres just south of Waterloo, Iowa. Bergquist, who voted for Mr. Trump in the 2016 election, added that commodity prices had already taken a toll on the area.This week’s Times article reports a number of negative comments from ag groups, individuals and others that expressed similar views.After an initial round of tariffs on a modest share of American exports, the Chinese have displayed a keen awareness of the electoral map and moved to punish those industries whose misfortune will be felt most intensely in states and districts pivotal in 2018.Karl Rove, the former strategist to President George W. Bush, said a trade clash “would limit Midwestern enthusiasm from our base and limit our ability to hold what we have and pick up more seats.” Rove also grumbled that Trump “has little to no understanding of the farm coalition.”The Times says the president may have a slightly better appreciation after a meeting last week in the West Wing with a small group of farm belt Republican senators and governors, during which two of them brought up the adverse impact that tariffs on exports could have in the midterm election, according to officials briefed on the conversation.Still, it is not clear just what message was delivered. While Trump used the session to direct a pair of his top economic advisers to reconsider whether the United States should join a free-trade pact with a group of Pacific nations, just hours later he signaled on Twitter that he was unlikely to reverse course on that agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Times said.In addition, the article notes that we may well have been here before. It says that “there are already whispers, in Washington and in agriculture states, that the president is risking a replay of President Jimmy Carter’s grain embargo on the Soviets, which contributed to the massive losses Democrats suffered in 1980.”Indeed, after a year in which Trump only mused about pulling out of NAFTA and was stymied by Congress in his attempt to slash USDA’s budget, there is now a sense in the farm belt that Trump’s yearning to punish China could inflict real economic and political damage on his own political base.So, while it is far too early to attempt to forecast political impacts of policy decisions, the contrast between the campaign and ongoing political reality seems to be growing and is reflected in the NYT conclusion that while President Trump’s trade policies enjoy the strong backing of his supporters, they are much less popular among a number of broad groups including independents, moderate Republicans and others whose votes could decide control of Congress in the midterm election this fall. “That could complicate Republicans’ plans to make their economic record a central argument in their case for re-election,” the Times said.It is increasingly clear that the trade policy fights involves high stakes for producers and should be watched closely as more than a few administration officials continue to push hard while risking important ag markets in pursuit of vague objectives only loosely grounded in economics, Washington Insider believes.