Bloomberg
is reporting this week that “as the House joins the Senate begin the second
session of the 115th Congress, Republicans and Democrats again find themselves
far apart on a government spending bill only days ahead of a potential
shutdown.”
The
deadline on everyone’s mind is Jan. 19--and after Republican leaders met with
President Donald Trump and cabinet officials over the weekend at Camp David
there was no indication either side had budged on some of the policy disputes
that are tied up in the debate over funding.
So, the
main effort now will be the search for bipartisan deals, with the House and
Senate needing the following week to vote on whatever bill emerges from the
negotiations.
A key
test will be whether Democrats and Republicans can agree to add other items to
the new stopgap, Bloomberg says. This includes a two-year agreement to raise
budget caps, changes to immigration laws, funding for natural disasters, and
health-care law revisions. Unlike the tax cuts enacted by the GOP in December,
Republicans will need votes from Democrats, and significant differences remain
in each area, particularly immigration.
“If the
Democrats want to shut down the government because they can’t get amnesty for
illegal immigrants, then they’re going to have to defend those actions to the
American people,” Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., said yesterday on ABC’s “This Week”
program—an indication of how contentious the coming discussions will be.
If both
parties can agree this week on raising budget limits, Congress may be able to
pass a short-term spending bill, a continuing resolution, said Muftiah
McCartin, a former spending panel staff member for House Democrats and now at
Covington & Burling LLP. “If they don’t get a deal, will the Democrats
allow another CR to go forward? I’d kind of be surprised,” McCartin said.
Also, K
Street strategists said the current-year appropriations may not be complete
until well into February. “It could take weeks to write, score, and pass the
bills,” said former House Appropriations Committee staff director Jim Dyer. “I
don’t think you have this all done by the 19th. This has become too
complicated,” Dyer, who’s preparing to join the government affairs practice at
Baker Donelson law firm, said in an interview. “Now they have a massive laundry
list of things they want to attach to the package.”
Even if
negotiators were able to agree this month on new topline numbers for military
and domestic spending, weeks of talks could be necessary to work out how $1.2
trillion or more in discretionary spending would be doled out to the Pentagon,
disaster aid, and other government programs.
Meanwhile,
K Street strategists said the current-year appropriations may not be complete
until
So, we
will see. Experts say the design of bi-partisan legislation is much more
difficult than simply holding together a parties’ position was for tax reform
legislation—and there may be remaining scores to settle from that fight that
make the use of a threatened government shutdown a more attractive option.
Still, everybody says they don’t want a shutdown, so the game seems to be to
find a position close to a shutdown, but one that avoids taking ownership of
such a policy. And, it will be yet another test of political leadership to
manage that process to achieve a positive outcome—a process that should be
watched closely as it evolves, Washington Insider believes.