WHEAT: Projected
2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised 29 million bushels on increased
supplies and decreased use. Seed use is lowered 4 million bushels on the winter
wheat planted area released today in the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings
report. Wheat feed and residual use for 2017/18 is lowered 20 million bushels.
Global wheat supplies for 2017/18 are lowered 0.8 million tons on reduced
beginning stocks, more than offsetting increased production. World beginning
stocks are lowered 2.6 million tons mostly on a large 2016/17 production cut
for Australia, reflecting updated Australia Bureau of Statistics data. World
production for 2017/18 is raised 1.8 million tons led by a 2.0-million-ton
increase for Russia and a 0.8-million-ton increased for Pakistan.
COARSE GRAINS: This
month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased food,
seed, and industrial use (FSI), lower feed and residual use, and greater
stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.604 billion bushels, up 26 million
from last month as an increase in yield to a record 176.6 bushels per acre is
partially offset by a 0.4-million acre reduction in harvested area. Among the
major producing states, yields are estimated to be record high in Illinois,
Minnesota, and Ohio. Sorghum production for 2017/18 is estimated 8 million
bushels higher as an increase in yield to 72.1 bushels per acre more than
offsets a marginal reduction in harvested area. Grain sorghum prices are
forecast at $3.15 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint.
Global coarse grain
production for 2017/18 is forecast 0.3 million tons higher to 1,324.2 million.
This month’s 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and
consumption and greater trade relative to last month. Barley production is down
as a reduction for Russia more than offsets an increase for Argentina.
RICE: U.S.
2017/18 all rice production is 178.2 million cwt, down fractionally from the
previous estimate and down 20 percent from last year. The all rice average
yield is estimated at 7,507 pounds per acre, up 46 pounds from the prior
estimate. Long-grain production is raised to 127.9 million cwt and medium- and
short-grain production is lowered to 50.4 million. All rice domestic and
residual usage is increased by 5.0 million cwt to 120.0 million on
higher-than-expected usage for August-November. Global 2017/18 rice supplies
are increased by 1.3 million tons to 622.8 million, primarily on larger crops
for the Philippines and Pakistan.
OILSEEDS: U.S.
oilseed production for 2017/18 is estimated at 131.3 million tons, down 0.9
million from last month. Smaller soybean, peanut, and cottonseed crops are
partly offset by increases for canola and sunflower seed. Soybean production is
estimated at 4,392 million bushels, down 33 million on lower yields. Harvested
area is estimated at 89.5 million acres, up fractionally from the previous
forecast. Soybean meal production is unchanged as the higher crush is offset by
a lower extraction rate. Soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels.
Global oilseed production is
projected at 580.1 million tons, up 0.5 million. Soybean production is raised
0.1 million tons to 348.6 million on gains for Brazil and the EU that are
partly offset by lower production for Argentina and the United States. Global
oilseed trade for 2017/18 is projected at 176.0 million tons, down 0.4 million
from last month.
SUGAR: U.S.
sugar supply for 2017/18 is increased by 72,353 short tons, raw value (STRV),
mainly due to increases in expected cane sugar production partially offset by a
decrease in beet sugar production. The ending stocks total for 2017/18 remains
at 1.008 million MT, an amount to meet sugar supply requirements of domestic
consumption before the next season harvest.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, DAIRY:
The estimate of 2017 total red meat and poultry production is reduced from last
month. Based on preliminary data, beef and turkey production estimates are
lowered, more than offsetting higher pork and broiler production. The egg
production estimate is raised modestly on late-2017 production data. For 2018,
the total red meat and poultry production forecast is raised as higher expected
pork, beef, and WASDE-573-4 broiler production offsets lower turkey production.
The 2018 beef production forecast is raised as higher cattle placements in late
2017 are expected to result in higher fed cattle marketings and slaughter in
the first half of 2018. Average carcass weights are also expected to be
heavier. USDA will release its semi-annual Cattle report on January 31,
providing estimates of heifers held for breeding and an insight into the number
of feeder cattle available for placement during 2018. The pork production
forecast for 2018 is raised. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated
the September-November pig crop was 3 percent above 2016 which supports a
higher first-half production forecast. The report also indicated producers
expect to expand farrowings about 3 percent in the first half of the year
which, coupled with continued gains in pigs per litter, supports higher
second-half production. Forecast broiler production is raised for 2018 on
favorable returns. Turkey production is reduced based on continued weak demand.
The egg production forecast is raised slightly.
Beef imports are increased
for 2017 on increased shipments from Oceania. No change is made to exports.
Pork exports for 2017 are raised reflecting the pace of trade to date but no
change is made to pork imports. Broiler imports and exports are raised for
2017, reflecting recent trade data. For 2018, livestock, broiler, and egg trade
forecasts remain unchanged from last month.
The milk production estimate
for 2017 is reduced on recent data. For 2018, the milk production estimate is
reduced on slower anticipated growth in the dairy cow herd combined with
continued slow growth in milk per cow.
COTTON: This
month’s 2017/18 U.S. cotton forecasts include slightly lower production and
ending stocks. Production is reduced 177,000 bales due to small declines in
regions outside the Delta. Ending stocks are reduced 100,000 bales, while
domestic mill use and exports are unchanged.
Offsetting changes in foreign
production and consumption characterize the global 2017/18 cotton forecasts
this month. Global production is raised 1.0 million bales as a 1.4-million-bale
increase for China is only partly offset by small decreases in India, the
United States, and Australia. Global consumption is raised 1.2 million bales
largely due to a 1.0-million-bale increase for China. World consumption is
forecast to grow at a 5.2 percent annual rate in 2017/18