For the second-straight
month, the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dipped lower,
coming in with an index of 126 in December. That number was the lowest since
March of last year and the second-lowest of 2017. The decline is driven
entirely by producers becoming less optimistic about the future. The Future
Expectations Index was recently at 137 in October, but fell to 127 in November
and dipped to 120 in December. That’s the lowest reading for future
expectations since October of 2016. The Index of Current Conditions stands in
sharp contrast to the future expectations. The Index of Current Conditions
measures the short-term expectations of farmers, which increased in December to
139, the highest number since July of 2017 and the second-highest number since
the survey began collecting data in October of 2015. Optimism has especially
dipped in future financial expectations. The share of farmers expecting better
financial conditions for their farms in the next year fell 20 percent from the
previous survey, while the share of farmers expecting worse financial
conditions over the coming year rose 30 percent.
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