USDA's initial survey-based guesses in August came in well above all the analysts' pre-report guesses

USDA's September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports usually don't get much attention. Sure, media types flock to the lock-up like always and analysts drool at the prospect of having another set of estimates to analyze, but generally speaking, grain and oilseeds markets don't get all that excited.That could change this year after USDA's initial survey-based guesses in August came in well above all the analysts' pre-report guesses. As one would expect, grain and oilseed markets hit the skids with Dec corn losing 45 cents (12% of its value), November soybeans falling 67 1/2 cents (7%), and December Chicago wheat dropping 67 cents (14%).All because of how one set of guesses related to another set of guesses.USDA will release its latest Crop Production and WASDE reports at 11 a.m. CDT Tuesday, Sept. 12.Heading into the September round of reports, it looks to be the same game of whose guesses get closest to USDA's. The numbers themselves are irrelevant, because nothing more is actually known about the 2017 crop than it was back in August. The earliest-planted acres -- and therefore harvested acres -- could be finalized by using FSA's numbers in October. But, normally, "final" numbers aren't published until January. National average yield remains anyone's guess, again until UDSA publishes what's supposed to be its final tally in January. So without actual harvested acres or real yield data, final production is -- well -- just another guess.As the old infomercials scream, "But wait, there's more!"We also won't know beginning stocks for either corn or soybeans, given that the final, data-based number isn't available until the release of the Sept. 29 Quarterly Stocks report. So, no total production, no beginning stocks, and really no idea other than a rough average of expected imports to calculate total supplies.But the numbers will be released, and markets will move anyway.