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Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Canada Principal field crop pre-report trade estimates indicate the possibility of a record area planted to canola in 2017

In advance of Friday's Statistics Canada Principal field crop areas report, pre-report trade estimates indicate the possibility of a record area planted to canola in 2017.Canada media reports, using information released by Commodity News Service that is based on March producer surveys, show the range of pre-report estimates is from 20.3 million to 22.5 million acres. This is up from an estimated 20.367 million acres seeded in 2016 and compares to the 2012 record of 22 million acres.Canola is usually viewed as the crop that pays the bills, and this year is no exception. As of week 36, or the week ending April 9, producers have delivered 14.3102 million metric tons of canola into the licensed handling system, up 12% from the same period last year while close to 3 mmt or 25.8% higher than the five-year average for this period. And buyers want more. Basis levels continue to strengthen, while canola futures are sharply diverging from the bearishness of the soybean market, given much tighter old-crop fundamentals.Wheat acres, on the other hand, are expected to fall more than one million acres (spring wheat, durum and winter wheat remaining). Pre-report estimates suggest that all-wheat acres will range from 21.2 million acres to 23 million acres in 2017, down from 23.212 million acres seeded in 2016. The largest swing will be seen in durum acres, which are estimated to range from 4.8 million acres to 5.8 million acres, down from last year's 6.2 million.Given the pre-report estimates shown, a Statistics Canada estimate for canola acres in the upper half of the range of pre-report estimates, along with a wheat estimate in the lower half of the range of pre-report estimates, could result in canola acres toppling wheat acres in Canada for the first time ever