Shutdown Halts Some Payments and Loans to Farmers

The U.S. federal government shutdown will stop some payments to farmers and also delay access to federal farm loans. Reuters said it’s one more blow for producers already struggling with low crop prices, record-high debts, and a trade war at the height of the fall harvest. Republican and Democratic lawmakers couldn’t agree on a plan to fund the federal government, and this will last until one party gets enough votes for its funding plan. “Even short interruptions in payments could deepen farmers’ economic turmoil,” said Chad Hart, an agricultural economist with Iowa State University. “After all, it costs money to run those combines at harvest.”  While administration of nutrition programs and food inspections will continue, much of USDA’s other work will cease. That includes processing farm loans and making payments to farmers, including billions in disaster aid. It will also not process annual commodity and land conservation payments typically issued by October. 

Senators Want Final Import RIN Reduction Rule in Place

Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa led over 45 Senate and House colleagues in urging the Environmental Protection Agency to finalize a rule on imported Renewable Identification, or RIN, Numbers. They also want the agency to hold firm on the proposed biomass-based diesel volumes. In a letter to EPA, lawmakers said such measures would ensure the Renewable Fuel Standard continues to strengthen American energy security and support America’s farmers and renewable fuel producers. “While many farmers are struggling to break even, all federal biofuels policies should prioritize domestic agriculture and biofuel production, not foreign fuels made from foreign feedstocks,” the letter said. “Also, while farmers face the uncertainty of foreign market demand, the Import RIN reduction would provide support for the farm economy, so farmers could sell more products domestically.” Earlier this year, the EPA proposed record biomass-based diesel volumes, including a 50 percent reduction in RINS for imported renewable fuels. 

Support Coming for U.S. Soybean Farmers

The federal government will support America’s soybean farmers as China refuses to buy U.S. soybeans and will make an announcement on Tuesday. That announcement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. “You’re going to see substantial support for the farmers, and we’re also going to be working with the Farm Credit Bureau to make sure that farmers have what they need for next year’s planning,” Bessent said. “It’s unfortunate that Chinese leadership has decided to use the American farmers, soybean farmers in particular, as a hostage or pawn in the trade negotiations.” Agriculture Dot Com says Chinese importers haven’t bought any soybeans from America’s harvest during the trade war between Washington and Beijing, costing U.S. farmers billions in lost sales. America’s farmers overwhelmingly voted for President Donald Trump in 2024. The president said soybeans will be a major topic of discussion when he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in four weeks. 

California Governor Signs E15 Bill

The Renewable Fuels Association applauded California Governor Gavin Newsome for signing Assembly Bill 30 into law. AB30, which passed unanimously out of both the Assembly and the Senate, immediately legalizes lower-cost E15 fuel in the Golden State. Prior to the signing, California was the only remaining state in the nation where E15 sales weren’t allowed. “California is on the road to lower gas prices and a cleaner future for families across the state,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “Many other states have already seen the benefits of E15, including healthier air, better engine performance, and costs savings at the pump.” California drivers are about to experience those same benefits for themselves, and RFA thanked Governor Newsom for voicing his support for E15 through the legislative process. Recent studies have shown that E15 could save California drivers $2.7 billion annually, or about $200 per household, while significantly cutting tailpipe pollutants.

Ethanol Production Falls

The Energy Information Administration said U.S. ethanol output dropped during the week ending on September 26. Production fell to an average of 995,000 barrels per day from 1.024 million a week earlier. Agency data also said that’s down from the 1.015 million produced during the same week in 2024. In the Midwest, output averaged 940,000 barrels a day, down from 964,000 during the previous week and 961,000 at the same point a year ago. East Coast output was down by 3,000 barrels to an average of 10,000 barrels a day, and Rocky Mountain production declined by 2,000 barrels a day to 11,000 per day. Gulf Coast production was unchanged from the previous week, while the West Coast was the sole gainer, rising 1,000 barrels a day to an average of 10,000 barrels a day. Ethanol inventories through the week totaled 22.8 million barrels, down from 23.5 million during the prior week. 

New President Takes Over NCGA

Jed Bower, a fifth-generation corn and soybean farmer from Ohio, began his term this week as president of the National Corn Growers Association, saying the challenging rural economy will be his top priority in the year ahead. “We need new markets to help alleviate the economic crisis that’s threatening the survival of countless family farms across the country,” Bower said. “That’s why we will continue to encourage Congress to act immediately to pass legislation that expands consumer access to higher blends of ethanol year-round and urge the Trump administration to move quickly to develop new foreign markets.” Grower leaders have ramped up pressure on Congress to pass the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025, which would eliminate a dated clause in the Clean Air Act that prevents the sale of E15 during the summer months. Growers argue this change would provide more predictability and boost demand for corn.

Friday Watch List

Markets

As the government shutdown enters its third day, again major agency reports are delayed/canceled including the weekly Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC. There are a few Federal Reserve governor speeches scheduled throughout the day which investors may turn to for guidance in lieu of September employment data which had been scheduled for release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Weather

A front has moved into the Northern Plains and sits there on Friday. A storm system in the West will produce showers up that way throughout the day Friday. Some very spotty showers will be possible in other parts of the country, but it will continue to be mostly very warm and dry heading into the weekend.

Over 40,000 USDA Employees Furloughed By Shutdown

The White House Office of Management and Budget requires the USDA to maintain a plan for agency operations in the absence of appropriations. The plan shows a total of 85,907 USDA employees on board before the government shutdown took place on Wednesday morning at 12 am. According to the plan, a total of 42,256 agency employees were placed on furlough. The plan shows that the work getting paused during a shutdown includes most of the Risk Management Agency, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Foreign Agricultural Service, Food and Nutrition Service, and other segments of the agency. The shutdown particularly affects employees who work face-to-face with farmers. More than 6,000 of the 9,000-plus Farm Service Agency employees are going on furlough. By comparison, just 533 of the 7,600-plus people working at the Food Safety and Inspection Service, which regulates meat and poultry processing, are to be furloughed. Pesticide registration work at the EPA will continue.

Global Productivity Not Progressing Fast Enough

The Virginia Tech College of Agriculture and Life Sciences released its annual Global Agricultural Productivity Report this week. Among the key findings, global agricultural productivity growth, which is averaging 0.76 percent annually, is only about one-third of the target rate of two percent per year needed to sustainably and profitably meet the demands of the world’s agri-food systems. Asia has emerged as a global productivity leader, especially in China, India, and Vietnam. The growth is driven by R&D investment and technology adoption. In contrast, much of Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America remains reliant on land expansion and input intensification, which can generate short-term output gains but can also erode ecosystems and stall sustainable growth. While the U.S. averaged -0.05 percent annual growth during the past decade, China surged ahead at 1.9 percent, backed by twice the R&D funding and threatening the U.S. edge in global agriculture. 

Rollins: Farm Economy Not in a Good Place

The U.S. agriculture industry continues to lose sales from trade severances with China and other partner nations, prompting Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins to say the farming economy is “not in a good place.” During an appearance on the Fox Business Channel, she said the administration is working around the clock. Rollins also said a “Golden Age” was around the corner for farmers, and they’d have an announcement on farmer support likely next week. Not everyone agrees with the Golden Age comment. The Hill said Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley slammed the administration’s decision to support the Argentine government financially while China purchases an increasing number of soybeans from the South American nation. In a post on X, the Senator said farmers are still “very upset” about Argentina selling soybeans to China right after the USA bailout. With no sales to China, Grassley said farmers need a trade deal with China “Now.”

Democrats Want Argentina Bailout Halted

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), the Ranking Member of the Senate Ag Committee, led 13 colleagues in calling on President Trump to halt his plan to send a $20 billion bailout to Argentina. The Argentinian government just suspended its soybean export taxes, undercutting American farmers in the international market. “Despite that, you are still reportedly moving forward with the bailout for the country,” the Senators said in a letter to the White House. “American soybean farmers, already hurting from your sweeping tariffs, deserve better.” The senators said it’s unclear why the White House would use taxpayer dollars to bolster the re-election campaign of a foreign president while the country takes steps to undermine U.S. farmers. As the American Soybean Association puts it, “U.S. soybean prices are falling, the harvest is underway, and farmers read headlines about not securing a trade agreement with China, but that the government is extending billions to Argentina.” 

Motion to Dismiss Denied in Ear Tag Case

The U.S. District Court for the Fourth District of South Dakota denied much of the USDA’s motion to dismiss the New Civil Liberties Alliance’s R-CALF, et al. v. USDA Lawsuit. The NCLA, representing farmers, ranchers, and livestock producers, challenged the USDA and its Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service’s unlawful 2024 rule requiring electronically readable (EID) eartags for certain cattle and bison transported across state lines, rather than the long-used visual tags. USDA claimed that NCLA’s clients - cattle producers - did not have standing to bring the lawsuit, but the District Court rejected USDA’s arguments. NCLA is determined to defeat the rule on the merits and finally end this costly and unnecessary mandate, which is disproportionately borne by smaller and independent cattle producers.  Kara Rollins, Litigation Counsel for NCLA, said, “Since this rule came into effect almost a year ago, America’s farmers and ranchers have been forced to comply with an unnecessary mandate.” 

Celebrating Leadership and Agriculture at the National FFA Convention

Tens of thousands of FFA members, advisors, alumni, and supporters from across the country will gather in Indianapolis for the 98th National FFA Convention and Expo. This celebration of agricultural education and leadership takes place from October 29-November 1. “This year’s convention is more than just an event; it’s a celebration of our members’ dedication and a launchpad for the next generation of leaders,” said Christine White, chief program officer for the National FFA Organization. “It’s a time where we honor the hard work of today and ignite the spark of inspiration for tomorrow, empowering a community that will shape the future of agriculture and innovation for years to come.” Last year, over 71,000 people attended the event, which is the largest annual gathering of FFA members. Attendees will participate in award ceremonies, explore careers, do hands-on service projects, and more. FFA members will participate in a variety of competitions. 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Due to the ongoing government shutdown, scheduled Thursday USDA and other government agency reports are postponed until further notice. As displayed on Wednesday, the market will continue to be highly sensitive to headlines and comments regarding a potential soybean related trade deal with China. Traders will also be keeping their ears open for yield updates as U.S. harvest rolls forward.

Weather

A few spotty showers will be possible in the Plains and Pacific Northwest on Thursday, but drier conditions are likely for the vast majority of the country again. Temperatures again will be on the verge of breaking some records across the north.

USDA Readying for Possible Government Shutdown

In the event of a possible government shutdown on Wednesday, the USDA says it’s taken steps to be ready. A shutdown could happen when the fiscal year ends on Tuesday night, unless Congress passes another continuing resolution. Back in the 2018 federal shutdown, Food Safety and Inspection Service meat inspection and laboratory testing personnel continued to work. USDA says it is prepared for all possible contingencies covering operations, including critical services and support programs. Two people with direct knowledge of the agency’s plans told Politico that USDA employees may face more layoffs. The department submitted its tentative shutdown contingency plan to the Office of Management and Budget, and it does include a reduction-in-force provision. No further details were provided on which employees could be cut, but the two people said the rest of the proposal largely mirrors USDA’s typical shutdown contingency plan, last updated during the Biden administration.

Mexico’s Meat Sector Unhappy with New Rules

Mexico’s government instituted new regulations on livestock movement because of the New World screwworm infestation in the country. Restrictions were put in place as tensions with the United States continue to heat up. Mexico’s meat chamber AMEG (Mexican Cattle Feeders Association) said restricting the movement of livestock from the south to the northern part of the country “threatens the economic viability of the sector that generated $192 billion in 2024.” Reuters said a document dated September 19 from Mexico’s ag ministry said the anti-parasite drug Ivermectin must be given 72 hours in advance of the movement of cattle under the supervision of staff from the International Regional Organization for Animal and Plant Health. “Recent measures jeopardize the supply chain of the meat production sector,” said AMEG, without specifying which measures they were referring to in the statement. AMEG said the only proven method to eradicate the screwworm was the release of sterile flies.

Wheat Export Inspections Decline Week to Week

USDA data showed inspections of wheat for overseas delivery declined week to week, while corn and soybean assessments increased. Wheat inspections in the seven days ending on September 25 totaled 738,600 metric tons, down from almost 940,000 tons the previous week. The agency said that’s still well above the 552,000 tons examined in the same week last year. Corn assessments were reported at 1.53 million metric tons versus 1.39 million during the previous week and 1.15 million at the same point in 2024. Soybean inspections totaled 594,000 metric tons, up from 566,000 tons a week earlier, but down from the 684,000 metric tons during the same week last year. Since June 1, the government has inspected 9.54 million metric tons of wheat for export, up from the 8.28 million tons assessed during the same timeframe last year. Corn and soybean inspections are also higher than last year.

USDA Hosting Agribusiness Trade Mission to Taiwan

Luke Lindberg, USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, arrived in Taiwan to lead an agribusiness trade mission to expand market access and boost U.S. agricultural exports. The delegation includes 39 agribusinesses and trade organizations and representatives from three state agriculture departments. “On a per capita basis, Taiwan already punches above its weight in purchasing high-quality American agriculture, but we will showcase more of our amazing brands and food products,” said Lindberg. The trade mission comes on the heels of an announcement by Taiwan officials who intend to increase purchases of several categories of U.S. agricultural products by over 30 percent during the next four years. The U.S. has a $3.1 billion trade surplus with Taiwan after shipping a total of $3.8 billion in 2024. Trade opportunities include soybeans, corn, wheat, dairy, beef, fresh fruits, tree nuts, and more. USDA’s next trade mission heads to Mexico in November.

Turkeys Raised Down Three Percent from 2024

The latest Turkeys Raised Report from the USDA shows a continued decline in the total number of birds produced in the U.S. since 2016, with the only bounce higher coming from 2022 to 2023. Turkeys raised in the U.S. during 2025 are forecasted to be 195 million, down three percent from the number raised during 2024. The top six states accounted for a total of 68 percent of all turkeys produced in the U.S. during 2025. The largest turkey-producing state is Minnesota at 32 million turkeys, unchanged from the previous year. Second-place North Carolina produced 28 million turkeys, up four percent from a year ago. Arkansas produced 22 million turkeys, down 12 percent from last year. Indiana produced 20 million turkeys, unchanged from 2024. Missouri produced 15 million turkeys, down three percent from last year. Virginia, down two percent from the previous year, produced 15 million turkeys.

Corn and Soybean Stocks are Lower

The USDA’s Grain Stocks Report showed corn stocks down 13 percent from last year, soybean stocks are eight percent lower, and all wheat stocks are up six percent from 2024. Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2025, totaled 1.53 billion bushels, down 13 percent from September 1, 2024. Both on-farm and off-farm stocks were down from last year. Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2025, totaled 316 million bushels, down eight percent from September 1, 2024. Both on-farm and off-farm stocks were lower. All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2025, totaled 2.12 billion bushels, up six percent from a year ago. Based on the 2024 end of the marketing year analysis, corn for grain production was revised up 25 million bushels from the prior estimate. 2024 soybean production was revised up 7.74 million bushels from the previous estimate. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

EIA Petroleum Status Report including weekly ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CDT

Commodity Costs and Returns at 1 p.m. CDT

Cotton System Consumption and Stocks at 2 p.m. CDT

Fats and Oils -- August Oilseed Crush Report at 2 p.m. CDT

Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production at 2 p.m. CDT

Weather

Scattered showers are moving through the Pacific Northwest Wednesday morning with a string of showers found in the Plains as well. Some of this activity may last into the afternoon. Much of the country will be drier Wednesday as temperatures remain very warm for the beginning of October.

USDA Issues Second Assistance Payment to Producers

The USDA will issue a second Emergency Commodity Assistance Program payment to eligible producers for the 2024 crop year. Of the authorized $10 billion in ECAP assistance, USDA’s Farm Service Agency has already provided over $8 billion in payments to eligible producers to mitigate the impacts of increased input costs and falling commodity prices. “Initial ECAP payments were factored by 85 percent to ensure that total program payments didn’t exceed $10 billion in available funding,” said USDA Deputy Undersecretary Brooke Appleton. “Because additional funds remain, FSA is issuing another payment.” Payments will automatically be made to eligible producers with approved ECAP applications who received an initial payment. Any application approved after September 25 will receive one lump sum. “These payments, combined with the entire suite of supplemental disaster assistance programs, will help producers navigate market uncertainty, pay down debt from the 2024 crop year, and secure financing for 2026,” Appleton said.

Bankruptcies Rising in the Fed’s Ninth District

The past few years have been challenging for farmers in the Federal Reserve’s Ninth District. The latest Minneapolis Fed Ag Credit Survey shows the pressure is growing on the district’s producers, with slumping incomes and worsening financial conditions over the last two years. “Farmers are suffering this year,” a North Dakota lender commented on the survey. “If it’s prolonged into 2026, we could see some farms fail.” While the number of bankruptcies has risen, the total remains low by historical standards, but there are reasons to expect those numbers to increase. Court information shows the number of operations filing for Chapter 12 increased in the first two quarters of this year. However, the increase does come off a very low floor, and the overall level is still very low as a total of nine farms in the Ninth District filed for bankruptcy in the second quarter of this year. 

Rural Mainstreet Index Turns Negative

The August Rural Mainstreet Index covering a multi-state region shows one-fifth of grain farmers will experience a negative cash flow in 2025. For the seventh time this year, the overall regional economic index sank below growth-neutral, falling to 38.5 in September, down from 48.1 in August. Also, for the 16th time in the past 17 months, farmland prices sank below growth-neutral. Elevated interest rates, higher input costs, and below breakeven prices caused the downward pressure on farmland. Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 25th straight month. Three out of four bank CEOs reported that tariff increases have had a negative impact on farm operations. “Weak agricultural commodity prices for grain producers continue to dampen economic activity in the ten-state region covered by the Index,” said Dr. Ernie Goss (Gahs). “Falling agricultural commodity prices represent the greatest threat to agricultural banks over the next 12 months.”

AGCO Seeks Appeal in Right-to-Repair Lawsuit

AGCO is asking a federal court to allow a rare interlocutory appeal in the Federal Trade Commission’s ongoing right-to-repair lawsuit against John Deere. The request follows an August ruling that granted Deere access to confidential competitor information gathered during the FTC’s investigation, including details like sensitive pricing, sales, and financial data from AGCO, as well as CNH Industrial and Kubota. AGCO argues the ruling lacks the heightened protections usually applied to non-party materials and says immediate review is needed to prevent disclosure of vital business information. Once released, the company contends that the data cannot be protected from misuse in either the FTC case or related farmer lawsuits. Farm Equipment Magazine says the appeal would go to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, where AGCO hopes to clarify what legal standards govern the release of government-held competitor data in antitrust cases. Deere vows to vigorously defend itself. 

Investments to Increase Soybean Export Capacity

Soybean farmer leaders were in Houston, Texas, in late September to present a ceremonial check worth $275,000 to The Andersons, Inc., for their expansion project at the Port of Houston. Once the project is completed in the first quarter of 2026, the expansion will enable the facility to export soybean meal. By investing in the project, soybean farmer leaders are taking concrete steps to increase soybean meal export capacity. One of the more significant developments in the U.S. soybean industry continues to be the investment in processing facilities in order to produce more soybean oil for renewable fuels. The additional production of soybean oil will result in the production of more soybean meal. While much of the meal will be consumed by the livestock industry, it’s increasingly important to invest in additional export capacity to connect with international markets. It’s also increasing the resilience and diversity of the U.S. supply chain.

NFU Reacts Positively to Competition Investigation

National Farmers Union President Rob Larew reacted positively to a recent announcement from the USDA and Department of Justice. He issued a statement applauding the news after the two agencies came together in a new initiative to scrutinize competitive conditions in the agricultural marketplace. “American agriculture is at a breaking point,” Larew said. “Rising input costs are hitting family farmers and ranchers hard, and corporate consolidation is a major cause.” He also said that if just a handful of companies control the markets for seed, fertilizer, and other farm supplies, they can raise their prices at will. “This leaves farmers squeezed between skyrocketing costs and low prices for their products, which is unsustainable for farm families, rural communities, and consumers,” Larew said. The Farmers Union commends the USDA and DOJ for hearing the group’s call to action, confronting the challenges, and looks forward to easing the economic burden in farm country.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

NASS Quarterly Grain Stocks Report at 11 a.m. CDT

NASS Annual Small Grains Summary at 11 a.m. CDT

Weather

It continues to be rather quiet east of the Rockies on Tuesday, with some lingering showers in the Carolinas and more moving through the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures remain well above normal for the middle of the country, with a few spots approaching record highs Tuesday.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CDT

Crop Progress at 3 p.m. CDT

Weather

An upper-level ridge of high pressure built up across much of the U.S. over the weekend and sits there for Monday, causing mostly dry conditions east of the Rockies. Heat is also expanding across the region, being abnormally hot across the North. Some areas in the West will see showers as will the Southeast, as Tropical Storm Imelda brings some showers in, but stays offshore itself.

Rollins Announces Suite of Actions to Support American Farmers

On Thursday, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins spoke on the current state of the farm economy in the United States and addressed the ways President Trump is supporting American agriculture. U.S. farm production inputs are significantly more costly than four years ago, putting pressure on farmers’ bottom line. Between 2020 and now, seed expenses have increased 18%, fuel and oil expenses increased 32%, fertilizer expenses increased 37%, and interest expenses increased by a whopping 73%. the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding that represents a joint commitment by both agencies to protect American farmers and ranchers from the burdens imposed by high and volatile input costs while ensuring competitive supply chains, lower consumer prices, and the resilience of U.S. agriculture and the food supply. The Antitrust Division of DOJ will work hand in hand with USDA to take a hard look and scrutinize competitive conditions in the agricultural marketplace, including antitrust enforcement that promotes free market competition.

A Butterfat Boom Leaves Cheesemakers Demanding More Protein

Consumer demand for products like cheese, butter and yogurt that rely on protein and butterfat content continues to drive dairy sales growth in the U.S. and abroad. Over the past decade, milk delivered to U.S. dairy processing plants has become more nutrient-dense with higher levels of the two key components to meet rising demand. However, the pace of growth in butterfat content has far exceeded protein, which creates challenges for U.S. cheddar and American-style cheesemakers that rely on a more balanced ratio of the two. “U.S. dairy producers did an exceptional job increasing butterfat levels in milk to meet demand,” said Corey Geiger, lead dairy economist at CoBank. “For 10 years, the market couldn’t supply enough of it, and now there’s an oversupply – it’s almost too much of a good thing. Cheesemakers strive for a protein-to-fat ratio near 0.80. Anything significantly lower than that can reduce cheese quality and compromise production yields.”

United States Hog Inventory Down 1%

As of Sept.1, there were 74.5 million hogs and pigs on U.S. farms, down 1% from September 2024 but up 1% from June. 1, 2025, according to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report published today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Other key findings in the report were:

    Of the 74.5 million hogs and pigs, 68.5 million were market hogs, while 5.93 million were kept for breeding.

    Between June and August 2025, 34.1 million pigs were weaned on U.S. farms, down 3% from the same time period one year earlier.

    From June through September 2025, U.S. hog and pig producers weaned an average of 11.82 pigs per litter.

    U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.86 million sows farrow between September and November 2025, and 2.82 million sows farrow between December 2025 and February 2026.

    Iowa hog producers accounted for the largest inventory among the states, at 25.1 million head. Minnesota had the second largest inventory at 8.75 million head. North Carolina was third with 7.80 million head.

USDA Deregulates Bayer GMO Corn Variety

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) is deregulating Bayer U.S.-Crop Science (Bayer) MON 95379 corn. This corn was developed using genetic engineering to resist feeding damage caused by certain pests, including  fall armyworm, sugarcane borer, and corn earworm. After a thorough review, APHIS has determined that MON 95379 is unlikely to pose a greater plant pest risk than the nonmodified comparator and therefore is no longer subject to federal regulation governing the introduction of certain organisms developed using genetic engineering.

A news release stated the determination is based on:

    Information and data Bayer submitted in its petition for deregulation

    Available scientific data

    Public comments received in response to previous notices announcing the availability of the petition and draft plant pest risk assessment (PPRA)

White House Says to Plan for Shutdown and Mass Firings; Risk for Shutdown Continues to Increase

The White House budget office is instructing federal agencies to prepare reduction-in-force plans for mass firings during a possible government shutdown, specifically targeting employees who work for programs that are not legally required to continue. The Office of Management and Budget move to permanently reduce the government workforce if there is a shutdown, outlined in a memo shared with Politico ahead of release to agencies tonight, escalates the stakes of a potential shutdown next week. In the memo, OMB told agencies to identify programs, projects and activities where discretionary funding will lapse Oct. 1 and no alternative funding source is available. For those areas, OMB directed agencies to begin drafting RIF plans that would go beyond standard furloughs, permanently eliminating jobs in programs not consistent with President Donald Trump’s priorities in the event of a shutdown. The move marks a significant break from how shutdowns have been handled in recent decades, when most furloughs were temporary and employees were brought back once Congress voted to reopen government and funding was restored.

Rep. Taylor Introduces Improving Monitoring Act

Ohio Congressman Dave Taylor introduced the Improving Drought Monitoring Act, aimed at reauthorizing the USDA's "Improvements to the Drought Monitor" program and forming a Drought Monitor Interagency Working Group. This group will recommend ways to enhance the accuracy and consistency of drought data. The bill addresses the importance of reliable data for farmers, especially in light of recent drought conditions affecting southern Ohio. Taylor emphasized the necessity of accurate information for agricultural planning and response efforts, urging Congress to include the bill in the upcoming Farm Bill. This legislation calls for a $5 million investment in drought monitoring services, reauthorization through 2030, and strategic coordination among various federal agencies to improve drought responses for farmers across the nation.

Soybean Producers’ Frustration is Climbing

A recent announcement from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has upset the nation’s soybean farmers. In a post on X, Bessent said the U.S. will offer financial support to Argentina to help prop up its ailing economy. Argentina is a key competitor of American producers in the world soybean market. Almost immediately after the post, a reported 20 shiploads of Argentine soybeans were purchased by China after the Argentine government announced it would waive taxes on soybean exports. American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland was not pleased with the developments. “Soybean farmers have been clear for months in saying the administration needs to establish a trade deal with China,” Ragland said. “China is the world’s top soybean customer and our top export market.” The U.S. has made zero sales to China in the new crop marketing year because of a 20 percent retaliatory tariff imposed by China in response to U.S. tariffs. 

China Signals That Buying U.S. Soybeans Hinges on Tariff Removal

A spokesman from the Chinese commerce ministry was asked this week when China might resume buying American soybeans. He said the U.S. should remove what China describes as unreasonable tariffs and create conditions that help expand trade between the two nations. Traders in China have opted to fill their soybean needs in South America. China, the world’s biggest soybean buyer, hasn’t booked any soybeans from the U.S. during America’s harvest. American farmers are in danger of missing out on billions of dollars’ worth of soybean sales because of the unresolved tensions. Reuters said Senior Chinese Trade Negotiator Li Chenggang’s meeting with leaders from the Midwest may signal the world’s second-largest economy might be willing to buy some U.S. soybeans ahead of more wide-ranging talks. Disagreement on technical details might be slowing the negotiations. “U.S. action on the unreasonable tariffs would create possible trade expansion,” said a commerce ministry spokesperson. 

NCGA Joins Effort to Modernize Pesticide Drift Software

The National Corn Growers Association has joined a project to modernize the pesticide drift model software known as AGDISP. The “Agricultural Dispersion” software was developed by the U.S. Forest Service in the 1980s and is used by the EPA to model the movement of spray in the environment after it is released from a sprayer. The modernization project will update and improve AGDISP software. A modernized version will more accurately estimate off-target spray movement for all types of pesticide applications when the EPA conducts ecological, endangered species, and human health risk assessments. It will also allow the drift reduction benefits offered by new application technologies and techniques to be recognized by the EPA. That should result in less restrictive and more flexible application requirements on labels. The AGDISP software will also be available to the public and open source, which means companies developing new application technologies can incorporate it into their research. 

Rollins Proposes Updates to SNAP Retailer Stocking Requirements

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced that the USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service is proposing changes to strengthen the stocking requirements for retailers participating in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. These changes would protect the program, participants, and taxpayers by mitigating fraud, waste, and abuse and ensuring additional healthy food options for recipient families. She said retailers participating in SNAP need to sell real food, plain and simple. “Right now, the bar for stocking food as a SNAP retailer is far too low, allowing people to game the system and leaving vulnerable Americans without healthy food options,” Rollins said. “These commonsense changes are designed to minimize benefit tracking and skimming, among other fraudulent activities.” Among other changes, the proposal requires retailers to stock seven varieties of food in each of the four staple categories, including dairy, protein, grain, and fruits and vegetables, which is up from the current requirement of three. 

National FFA Next Gen Conference Held in North Dakota

The National FFA Organization hosted its third Next Gen Conference of the year in Fargo, North Dakota, earlier in September. Next Gen Conferences provide FFA members the opportunity to explore career options within the agriculture industry. The conference brought together 70 high school sophomores, juniors, and seniors from 21 states to learn more about emerging technologies in the agricultural space through informational sessions, panel discussions, and tours. “Emerging technology is a key element of agricultural education and helps students explore unexpected careers in the industry,” said Ashli Weinrich, a program specialist for National FFA. “We showcased how their learning in school and participation in FFA are actively preparing them for future careers across a variety of interests.” The 70 students selected to participate were chosen from a competitive applicant pool. Students were asked to share about their Supervised Agricultural Experiences and the work-based learning portion of their ag education.

Lowest U.S. Ethanol Production in Four Months

New data from the Energy Information Administration says American ethanol output dropped to a four-month low while inventories increased. Production fell to an average of 1.024 million barrels a day during the week ending on September 19. The agency said that’s down from the 1.055 million barrels produced during the previous week and is the lowest level since May 9. In the Midwest, which produces the largest amount of ethanol, production fell to an average of 964,000 barrels a day, down from 997,000 barrels a day during the previous week. That’s also the lowest in four months. That was all the declines as production remained steady with the previous week in the Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountain, and West Coast regions. The East Coast was the lone gainer, rising to an average of 13,000 barrels a day from 12,000 a week prior. Ethanol inventories rose to 23.46 million barrels during the week. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

August Personal Consumption Expenditures at 7:30 a.m. CDT

CFTC Commitments of Traders Report at 2:30 p.m. CDT

Weather

A front has moved into the Southeast early on Friday and will be stuck there through the weekend, producing showers. Some heavy rain may fall in the Southwest and a system is producing showers across the Canadian Prairies as well. Otherwise, the country is rather dry Friday.

USDA Three-Point Plan to Support Producers and Exporters

Last week, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins and USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg announced a new three-point plan to support American agricultural producers and exporters. The plan was announced during remarks at the annual meeting of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture. The first of three points is the America First Trade Promotion Program. USDA will kickstart the trade promotion program in fiscal year 2026. The second is a new model of trade missions that supplements the current model. The third point is an effort to revitalize export finance opportunities by reducing financial risk to lenders with credit guarantees to encourage exports to buyers in countries that have sufficient financial strength to have foreign exchange available for scheduled payments. “Advancing these programs as supplements to our existing programs ensures the health, prosperity, and security of rural America, and our farmers, ranchers, and producers,” Linberg said. 

China’s Soybean Buyers Now Turning to Argentina

Multiple grain traders told Reuters that Chinese soybean buyers have booked at least ten cargoes of Argentinian soybeans after the country decided to scrap export taxes. That’s another setback to America’s farmers, who are already shut out of their number one market and hurting from low prices. Removing the tax on exports boosts the competitiveness of Argentina’s soybeans, prompting traders to purchase cargoes for fourth-quarter inventories in China, a period that’s usually dominated by U.S. soybean imports. However, Reuters said that’s now clouded by Washington’s trade war with Beijing. One trader said Chinese buyers booked a total of 15 cargoes, dealing a fresh blow to America’s farmers, missing out on billions in soybean sales to China halfway through their prime marketing season. Argentina temporarily eliminated export taxes on grains and their by-products, as well as on beef and poultry, in a bid to spur sales abroad and bring in much-needed income. 

USDA Investments to Address Trade Barriers, Expand Market Access

The USDA is awarding $8.3 million in funding to help 11 U.S. recipients address their trade barriers and expand international market access for U.S. specialty crops. The funding is provided through the Foreign Agricultural Service, which manages the Technical Assistance for Specialty Crops Program. It helps producers combat trade barriers and promote their goods internationally. “Our market development programs are bringing the bounty of American agriculture to people around the world, helping millions of hardworking American farmers, ranchers, and producers connect their safe, high-quality products with growing export markets,” said Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Undersecretary Luke Lindberg. Through TASC, USDA partners with non-profit U.S. agricultural trade associations, farmer cooperatives, non-profit state-regional trade groups, state agencies, and small businesses to expand market access and conduct overseas marketing and promotional activities on behalf of producers and processors. The USDA market development programs return an estimated $24.50 for every dollar invested. 

Commitment to Biotech Principles in Wheat Development

U.S. Wheat Associates welcomed the announcement of a new collaboration between Bioceres (bio series) Crop Solutions and the Colorado Wheat Research Foundation. This joint effort aims to develop and prepare HB4® wheat for eventual commercialization in the United States. “We recognize the opportunities this advancement in breeding technology will bring to U.S. wheat production and look forward to seeing how the trait performs in U.S.-developed varieties,” said Mike Spier, president and CEO of U.S. Wheat. “We are also listening closely to our U.S. wheat farmer leaders and global customers, which is why we especially appreciate the commitment of Bioceres and CWRF to the Wheat Industry Principles for Biotechnology Commercialization.” He also said the continued open conversations as HB4® wheat enters the wheat breeding pipeline ensure that customers know their concerns are being heard and that the U.S. wheat store remains open to meet their desired preferences for wheat purchases.

USDA to Measure Milk Production

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service is about to begin data collection efforts for the quarterly Milk Production Survey. The information collected in the survey allows NASS to accurately measure and report conditions and trends in the U.S. milk industry over the course of a year. This survey, conducted four times a year, asks milk producers to provide the number of milk cows in the herd, the number of cows milked, and total milk production for the first day of the month. NASS also collects information about milk consumed on the farm and the amount fed to calves. “The dairy industry relies on the Milk Production reports to make decisions about marketing their milk,” said NASS Livestock Branch Chief Travis Averill. “By participating in the survey, milk producers can ensure that NASS provides timely, accurate, and useful data that all sectors of the U.S. milk industry use to make sound business decisions.” 

Cattlemen’s College Included in CattleCon Registration

CattleCon 2026, the largest cattle industry event of the year, will be in Nashville, Tennessee, February 3-5, 2026. Something new is that all registration options include access to Cattlemen’s College education sessions and demonstrations. For more than 30 years, Cattlemen’s College has provided cattle producers with valuable information to help improve their herds and businesses, and the experience will be open to all CattleCon 2026 attendees. “We bring together industry leaders from across the country to share the latest advancements and provide vital information,” said Buck Wehrbein (WEAR-byne), president of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. “We’re excited to make this educational experience available to everyone and look forward to hearing how producers use the valuable knowledge and insights to strengthen their businesses.” More than a dozen educational sessions and live animal handling demonstrations will take place. Also, classroom sessions will be recorded and available for attendees to watch after the event. 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CDT

2nd Quarter GDP -- Third Revision at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Food Price Outlook at 10 a.m. CDT

Hogs and Pigs Report at 2 p.m. CDT

Livestock Slaughter at 2 p.m. CDT

Weather

A system is moving into the Northeast while its cold front drags eastward into the East Coast for Thursday. Scattered showers will be found from the Gulf of Mexico up through the Northeast throughout the day. Despite the cold front, rather warm temperatures are found throughout the rest of the country.

Chinese Trade Negotiator Meets U.S. Midwest Delegation

Analysts predict the U.S. Midwest’s food exports will play a big part in any deal between the U.S. and China. Political and business leaders from around the Midwest recently met with senior Chinese trade negotiator Li Chengang to discuss commercial ties between the two countries. Those ties featured in talks on Monday, but few details were released. China is the world’s biggest buyer of soybeans. However, the country hasn’t bought any soybeans from the U.S., most of which come from the Midwest. U.S. News says analysts expect President Donald Trump to want China to commit to buying more agricultural goods, among other items, to end the current tariff war. David Purdue, the U.S. Ambassador to China, recently told reporters that he thought negotiations over China buying more Boeing aircraft had entered their last days or weeks. Soybean futures recently hit five-year lows after no progress was reported on agricultural commodities. 

U.S. Soybean Harvest Starts With No Chinese Purchases

America’s soybean harvest began in September with no orders from China, the world’s largest soybean buyer. USDA says that farmers will harvest 4.3 billion bushels, with no indication of when shipments to China will resume. In a typical year, Farmdoc at the University of Illinois says China buys more than half of all U.S. soybean exports. Meanwhile, Brazil set an export record for shipments to China from January through August. In 2024, the U.S. shipped almost 985 million bushels to China, accounting for 51 percent of the nation’s total soybean exports. This year, U.S. soybean exports to China from January through August totaled 218 million bushels, 29 percent of the total exports during that time. In June, July, and August, shipments to China were effectively at zero. While U.S. farmers wait for an agreement, the overall Chinese duty rate on U.S. soybean imports is 34 percent in 2025.

No One Wins With a State Patchwork of Sow Housing Laws

Every pig farmer in the U.S., whether large or small, stands to lose when faced with a patchwork of differing and ever-changing state sow housing laws spurred by California’s Prop 12. The issue goes beyond animal welfare to the root of the Constitution’s interstate commerce regulations and how bending them can break farmers. National Pork Producers Council Vice President Pat Hord testified before the House Agriculture Committee in July and stressed the need for patchwork prevention, even for those like him who have chosen to retrofit their barns to be Prop 12 compliant. Hord said, “Whatever steps we take today for California’s regulations could have to be changed when a new state decides they want a different housing standard.” NPPC recently submitted comments on the adverse effects of extraterritoriality, which is the legal concept that a state’s laws can apply to people or actions outside its borders.

Corn Growers Launch Input Cost Task Force

Citing near-record production costs in a low-price environment, the National Corn Growers Association launched a task force to identify solutions to bring costs more in line with today’s commodity prices. Corn growers are in their third consecutive year of net negative returns, with 2026 projected to be the fourth. “Corn growers have sounded the alarm that on-farm economics don’t work,” said Kenneth Hartman, Jr., NCGA President. “It’s time to look at all pieces of the farm profitability picture.” The organization said low prices contribute to one side of the equation, but we must also look at the extremely high prices growers are paying for essential inputs on the other side. Recent analysis from NCGA economists shows that input prices remain at near-record highs despite the precipitous drop in per bushel corn prices in the last three years. Production costs have dropped three percent since 2022, while corn prices dropped over 50 percent.

Study Finds Many Farmers Drop Conservation Practices

A new study from Iowa State University sheds surprising light on the evolving landscape of agricultural conservation in the state. It found that many farmers who adopted two key conservation practices, including cover crops and no-till, didn’t continue using those practices over time. The research explored farmers’ self-reports of whether they adopted, continued, or abandoned the conservation practices between 2015 and 2019. Most conservation adoption research operates under the assumption that once a practice has begun, it will remain in use. The farmer survey shows that almost 20 percent of farmers who used cover crops in one year had stopped using them by the following year. For cover crops, 192 farmers moved to an adopter status during the study period. However, 142 shifted out of the adoption category, leaving a net gain of 50 people. That’s an overall adoption increase of 1.9 percent. The no-till adoption gain was only 26 individuals.

August Milk Production Rises, Egg Production Drops

During August, the 24 major milk-producing U.S. states produced 18.8 billion pounds, up 3.3 percent from August 2024. Production per cow in the 24 states averaged 2,068 pounds for August, 28 pounds above last August. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 states was 9.08 million head, 172,000 more than in August 2024, and 7,000 head above July 2025. Also, U.S. egg production totaled 8.9 billion eggs in August 2025, down two percent from 2024. Production included 7.59 billion table eggs and 1.3 billion hatching eggs. The average number of layers during August 2025 totaled 364 million, down one percent from last year. August egg production per 100 layers was 2,444 eggs, one percent below August 2024. Total layers in the U.S. on September 1, 2025, totaled 366 million, one percent below last year. The rate of eggs laid per day on September 1, 2025, averaged 78.6 eggs per 100 layers.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

New home sales at 9 a.m. CDT

EIA Petroleum Status Report w/ weekly ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CDT

Weather

A storm system that brought widespread showers and areas of heavy rain in the Plains earlier this week has moved into the Ohio Valley where showers continue on Wednesday. The front to the system will push south through the South-Central U.S. with scattered showers as well. Some additional areas of heavy rain and limited severe weather are forecast.

Screwworm Moves Closer to U.S. Border

Mexico’s National Health Service confirmed a new case of New World screwworm less than 70 miles from the border between Mexico and the U.S. USDA says this is the farthest north the screwworm has advanced in Mexico during the current outbreak, and it is the most threatening to the American livestock industry. The location of the outbreak is on a major highway between Monterrey, Mexico, and Laredo, Texas. Colin Woodall, the CEO of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, says the news is deeply concerning. “The speed that the screwworm has moved through Mexico is a reminder that this pest poses a critical and urgent threat to America’s cattle producers,” he said. “We appreciate the USDA’s investment in resources to protect American agriculture and the FDA’s work to authorize emergency treatments for screwworm, and look forward to additional product approvals.” He also said it’s time to expedite the construction of a new sterile fly facility. 

Researchers Addressing Cyber Vulnerabilities in U.S. Agriculture

American agriculture has a growing need to strengthen its defenses against cyber assaults. The computers, sensors, GPS, and cloud-based data systems that help producers boost productivity also increase the chances for cybercriminals to worm their way into producers’ operational systems and data. Cyberattacks on agribusinesses in recent years have demonstrated hackers’ ability to shut down processing plants, halt livestock purchases, and cost corporations millions. The University of Nebraska educational system is working to strengthen agricultural cyber defenses. Multiple NU projects with various funding sources, including federal government grants, are at the forefront of analyzing and addressing vulnerabilities. “Many technologies used in precision agriculture, such as drones, have been designed for use and affordability before data security,” said Meghan Jackson of the University of Nebraska. “Disruptions of an automatic irrigation system or hacking a dairy’s control system could mean the failure of an entire season or the death of livestock.” 

USDA Terminates Food Insecurity Survey

The USDA is terminating future Household Food Security Reports. The agency says the redundant, costly, politicized, and extraneous studies do nothing more than fear monger. The study was initially created by the Clinton administration as a means to support the increase of SNAP eligibility and benefit allotments. The USDA said that for 30 years, this study failed to present anything more than subjective, liberal fodder. “Trends in the prevalence of food insecurity have remained virtually unchanged, regardless of a more than 87 percent increase in SNAP spending between 2019 and 2023,” the agency said in a release. About 2.4 million fewer Americans, including families with children, are predicted to receive food stamp benefits every month after lawmakers expanded work requirements for some parents, older SNAP enrollees, and others. That’s according to the Congressional Budget Office Analysis done in August. Recipients will see their assistance shrink as food banks cope with increased demand. 

U.S. Cattle on Feed Down One Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on September 1, 2025. That level was near pre-report trade predictions and one percent below September 1, 2024. Farm Journal’s AgWeb said that the September report shows historically tight U.S. supplies, but may also show farmers are starting to retain some heifers in the American cattle herd. State-by-state reports also show some higher numbers, including Texas at 91 percent compared to last year, Oklahoma at 95 percent, while Kansas is at 103 percent, and Iowa and Nebraska were at 105 percent compared to last year. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.78 million head, 10 percent below last year. Net placements were 1.73 million head. Fed cattle marketings in August reached 1.57 million head, 14 percent below last year and the lowest for August since 1996. 

Applications Open for Neil Dierks 2026 Scholarship

The National Pork Industry Foundation is accepting applications for the 2026 Neil Dierks Scholarship. The $5,000 scholarship honors Neil Dierks, longtime CEO of the National Pork Producers Council, and recognizes his leadership and dedication to the pork industry. “This scholarship reflects his commitment to fostering future leaders and ensures that graduate students with a passion for strengthening the pork industry have the opportunity to build on that legacy,” said John Anderson of the National Pork Industry Foundation Board. “Neil’s leadership and vision left a lasting impact on producers and the broader agricultural community.” Scholarship applications are due by December 31, 2025, and the recipient will be announced at the National Pork Industry Forum, March 4-6, 2026, in Kansas City, Missouri. Full eligibility requirements and applications are available at NPPC’s online form. To learn more about the scholarship or to make a contribution to the Foundation, visit the NPIF webpage. 

“Smart Swaps” Initiative for Schools Launches

The dairy checkoff has introduced “Smart Swaps,” a dairy-focused initiative designed to help schools meet evolving nutrition standards and student expectations. The farmer-founded National Dairy Council created Smart Swaps, which helps school nutrition professionals to include dairy in breakfast menus and adapt to evolving meal standards. The program offers training resources along with kid-approved breakfast recipes featuring dairy. “We have reimagined what’s possible with delicious, dairy-centric menu items,” said Alyson Kirchner, senior vice president of youth and schools for Dairy Management, Inc. “These menu options are aligned with the new added sugar and sodium guidelines while ensuring students receive the nutrient-rich foods they love and need.” Student preferences were included in the development of Smart-Swaps recipes, with 2,500 students nationwide testing menu offerings like Strawberry Pancake Yogurt Parfait, a Cherry Lime Smoothie Bowl, and Broccoli, Egg, and Cheese Pizza, among others. “This is dairy’s big opportunity,” said Katie Bambacht of the NDC.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

No major economic reports but Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at 11:35 a.m. CDT

Weather

A system continues showers across the Eastern Corn Belt on Tuesday, but it is a new system that moved out into the Plains Monday night that is the focal point. Areas of heavy showers have already formed in the Central Plains and will continue eastward throughout the day, causing areas of heavy rain from Kansas to Arkansas. Some severe weather will also be possible.

Senate Confirms Three Key USDA Nominees

On Thursday, the U.S. Senate confirmed three nominees for critical positions at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). These nominees were included as part of a package of 48 subcabinet level nominees, all of whom received bipartisan support when they were considered by their respective committees. USA Rice reports, the final confirmation vote on the package of nominees was 51 to 47. The three USDA nominees include Richard Fordyce to serve as the Under Secretary for Farm Production and Conservation; Dudley Hoskins to serve as the Under Secretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs; and Scott Hutchins to serve as the Under Secretary of Agriculture for Research, Education, and Economics.  “We are excited that Richard, Dudley, and Scott are finally getting approved by the full Senate so they can head these key farmer-facing mission areas at the USDA,” said Peter Bachmann, USA Rice President and CEO.

Farmers And Millers Advocate to Save Food for Peace

The U.S. has a long history of administering the largest, most reliable, and effective food assistance programs in the world and through the flagship Food for Peace program, American agriculture has fed more than four billion people in more than 150 countries. However, USA Rice reports, that in January, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the previous home of Food for Peace, was integrated into the U.S. Department of State as part of the Executive Order Reevaluating and Realigning United States Foreign Aid. Since then, there has been a dramatic decline in purchases of rice and other commodities for international food aid. In response, legislation was introduced in the Senate and House of Representatives by Senators Jerry Moran (R-KS) and John Hoeven (R-ND), as well as Representatives Rick Crawford (R-AR), Tracey Mann (R-KS) and others that would move Food for Peace completely to the USDA, which has a proven track record of administering the McGovern-Dole Food for Education Program and Food for Progress.

High Interest Rates Could Reshape Agriculture’s Future

“Yeah, you can buy dirt...

And thank the good Lord for it...

‘Cause he ain’t makin’ any more of it.”

The lyrics above are from the 2021 hit country song “Buy Dirt,” which voices a mantra that lives within every farmer, because those who farm view land as more than a commodity: It’s their livelihood and legacy. According to Farm Journal, persistently high interest rates are a key reason. The current agricultural downturn owes its roots to many reasons: low commodity prices, high input prices, tariffs, trade disputes, etc. An Iowa corn farmer pencils out a purchase on quality farmland priced at $11,467 per acre. Current financing is at 7.6% interest the annual debt service alone costs $777 per acre on a 30-year loan with 20% down. Total production costs, excluding land costs, reach $595 per acre. Here’s the devastating math: the same acre generates roughly $814 in gross revenue from corn. For a total net loss of -$558 per acre. Renting identical land for $271 per acre results in a $52 annual loss per acre.

Farmers Report Grim Economic Outlook

An overwhelming majority of corn growers from across the United States say that the nation’s farm economy is possibly already in a crisis or on the brink of one, according to a new survey released by the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA). “Farmers are in a lot of economic pain right now” said Illinois farmer and NCGA President Kenneth Hartman Jr. We need members of Congress to act fast to remove barriers to markets. Passing legislation for the year-round, nationwide sale of higher blends of ethanol would be an important first step in addressing this problem.” In the survey of 1,034 farmers conducted by Farm Journal from Aug. 28 to Sept. 10, nearly half (46%) indicated that they believe the United States is on the brink of a farm crisis. A total of 80% of those surveyed indicated they believe the farm economy maybe or ‘is’ on the brink of a farm crisis. 

Migrant Farmworkers Sue Seed Corn Company Over Wages and Housing

Seven migrant farmworkers from Texas claim they were recruited to work in Iowa, where they were paid illegally low wages and forced to live in substandard housing, says Iowa Capital Dispatch. The workers are suing Remington Seeds, which operates a seed corn processing facility; and Javier Chapa, a Texas labor broker who runs Chapa Global Contracting. Chapa was allegedly hired by Remington to recruit, house, and supervise migrant farmworkers in Iowa, Nebraska, and Texas. Their lawsuit claims the defendants violated the law that requires employers to pay American workers, such as the plaintiffs, the same wages paid to foreigners enrolled in the H-2A program, which allows foreign nationals to fill temporary agricultural jobs. The plaintiffs allege that Chapa concealed the fact that he was employing higher-paid foreign nationals in a seed corn processing plant in Nebraska, and that Chapa also refused to let the plaintiffs take the higher-paying Nebraska jobs.

Departments of Interior and Agriculture Announce Wildland Fire Service Plan to Modernize Federal Wildfire Response

The Department of the Interior and Department of Agriculture announced the coordinated action to create the U.S. Wildland Fire Service to modernize wildfire management nationwide. Fire seasons are longer, fire intensity is increasing, and suppression and recovery costs are soaring. Wildfires pose risks to national security, public health, energy and water supplies. “Time and time again, we have witnessed the devastating consequences of wildfires caused by mismanagement and a lack of preparedness,” said Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. The Department of the Interior issued Secretary’s Order 3443, which directs the establishment of the U.S. Wildland Fire Service with a plan for implementation in January 2026. The Department of Agriculture also released its own memorandum that outlines plans to modernize and strengthen America's wildfire prevention and response system. We are taking bold action to modernize wildfire response systems, streamline federal wildfire capabilities, and strengthen their effectiveness. 

Monday Watch List

Markets

Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CDT

Cotton Ginnings at 11 a.m. CDT

Chickens and Eggs at 2 p.m. CDT

Crop Progress Report at 3 p.m. CDT

Weather

A system that has been meandering through the middle of the country for the past week continues with showers across the Midwest on Monday. Some areas of heavy rain will be possible. A second system in the Rockies will move into the Central and Southern Plains later in the day with more widespread showers and potential severe weather that will continue overnight.

‘Trying to Stick Around’: U.S. Farmers Fight for Survival

Already, farm bankruptcies as of July exceed those over the full year of 2024. Many forces have buffeted American agriculture. U.S. News and World Report says low commodity prices, a persistent issue for years, now come with higher costs for inputs like fertilizer and equipment. Climate change has led to deeper, longer droughts and more flooding. Trade wars aren’t helping. Tariffs on other countries’ exports to the U.S. make those products more expensive to import. Retaliations from some countries are hitting farmers directly. China, once the main customer for U.S. soybeans, has been boycotting them. Moreover, Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs make U.S. soybeans 20% pricier than their South American competitors, according to the American Soybean Association. “U.S. soybean farmers are standing at a trade and financial precipice,” said ASA President Caleb Ragland, a soybean farmer from Kentucky. “Prices continue to drop, and at the same time farmers are paying significantly more for inputs and equipment.”

Farmer Leaders Rebuke USDA Officials Over FSA County Staffing Levels

In a press release by the National Association of Farmer Elected Committees (NAFEC), the group reports that FSA offices "are critically understaffed," yet USDA officials have publicly denied those concerns. Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden at the Farm Progress Show in late August rejected the notion FSA offices are short on staff. Vaden said USDA would not be asking for temporary or permanent FSA staffing levels. Leaders at FSA in recent meetings have indicated staffing levels of county office employees are now under 6,000, as compared to several thousand more, just a few years ago. The word we are consistently hearing is that our county office staffs are critically understaffed, said Jim Zumbrink, President of NAFEC, and a grain and turkey farmer from Ohio. "Staff will find it very difficult to perform the complex work of managing disaster programs and ongoing programs, with the speed agriculture producers in America, both expect and desperately need."

Trump Tariffs Could Fund Bailout for US Farmers, Ag Secretary Tells FT

The Trump Administration is drawing up plans to use tariff revenue to fund a program to support U.S. farmers, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. "There may be circumstances under which we will be very seriously looking to and announcing a package soon," Rollins said financing the bailout with “tariff income that is now coming into America” was “absolutely a potential.” The report follows pressure from farm groups after China stopped purchases of soybeans from the U.S. in their tit-for-tat trade dispute, and as tariffs have pushed up costs for fertilizer, machinery and other imported inputs. Agriculture has emerged as a major point of contention between China and the U.S. as the superpowers are locked in a tariff war launched by President Donald Trump.

PepsiCo, Unilever, and other Major Companies Launch "STEP up for Agriculture" Initiative

Leading retail and global food and beverage companies including PepsiCo and Unilever have announced the launch of Supporting Trusted Engagement and Partnership (STEP) up for Agriculture (STEP up for Ag), a pre-competitive initiative designed to strengthen the capacity and sustainability of farmer-facing support organizations across North America. STEP up for Agriculture, a first-of-its-kind collaboration to scale regenerative agriculture through locally tailored support systems. STEP up for Ag strengthens farmer-facing organizations by providing tools, training, and funding to accelerate adoption of sustainable practices and build resilient supply chains. The initiative supports PepsiCo's goal to transition 10 million acres by 2030, by strengthening farmer support organizations and advisory ecosystems needed to deliver this transformation. Expansion is already underway in Europe, beginning with a pilot in Spain—marking a global push toward regenerative agriculture. The initiative’s leaders say system change requires collective action, and this initiative brings together companies, nonprofits, and farmer-led groups to drive meaningful, scalable transformation in agriculture.

California Region Wine Grapes See 40% Decrease in Sales

The value of San Luis Obispo County, California’s agricultural industry has gone down by more than $85 million since 2023, according to the County of San Luis Obispo Department of Agriculture/Weights and Measures' new 2024 crops report. The agency released the 2024 production statistics for the local agricultural industry on Wednesday, analyzing the county's agricultural output over the calendar year. according to new SLO County crop report. In 2024, officials say the total crop value for San Luis Obispo County was $1,015,871,000— a nearly 8% decrease from the crop value in 2023, which the agency reported as $1,103,970,000. However, the 2024 statistic marks the fourth consecutive year that the crop value exceeded $1 billion. The Department of Agriculture/Weights and Measures says varied microclimates and a relatively healthy wet season allowed most crops to thrive across all growing regions. Officials add that overall production remained strong despite periods of heavy rainfall early in the year.

Kemp Leads South America Trade Mission to Boost Agriculture and Investment

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, joined by Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and other state officials, spent the last week of August in Brazil and Argentina meeting with business and agricultural leaders. According to Southeast Regional Ag News Kemp said the goal was to “replant a flag,” saying that he’s personally “been concerned about how much China and Russia have been playing in South America and the U.S. not so much over the last several years.” Kemp noted that South American companies have funneled more than $160 million into Georgia in the past six years, backing projects that created over a thousand jobs. Harper reminded producers why that matters: “Leveraging port systems and reducing trade barriers…are vital components of ensuring the continued success of agriculture.” According to Georgia Farm Bureau, the visit was aimed at strengthening global ties that ultimately benefit producers on both sides.

Friday Watch List

Markets

President Trump and President Xi of China are scheduled to speak on the phone about trade at 8 a.m. CDT

Cattle on Feed Report at 2 p.m. CDT

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report at 2:30 p.m. CDT

Weather

A very slow-moving system that has been around the middle of the country all week long continues to produce showers that extend a bit farther south and east for Friday. Pockets of heavier rain continue to be possible, but largely sporadic.

Grassley, Baldwin, Ernst Reintroduce Fertilizer Research Act

Sens. Chuck Grassley, Tammy Baldwin, and Joni Ernst are reintroducing bipartisan legislation, Fertilizer Research Act would require the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) to conduct a study on competition and trends in the fertilizer market and their subsequent impacts on price. Grassley is a lifelong family farmer and a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee. “Fertilizer is an essential tool our farmers rely on to maintain healthy soil and improve crop yields,” Ernst said. “I’m working hard to drive down fertilizer costs and make life more affordable for both farmers and consumers. By gaining a better understanding of the fertilizer industry, this research will provide the foundational knowledge needed to give farmers much needed clarity and certainty as harvest approaches.” The Fertilizer Research Act is endorsed by the National Corn Growers Association, the American Soybean Association, the American Farm Bureau Federation, the National Farmers Union, and many other organizations that support farmers. 

U.S., Canada, Mexico Begin Trade Consultations

The U.S., Canada and Mexico are set to formally begin consultations ahead of the review of their regional USMCA trade accord next year, the U.S. and Mexico announced Tuesday. The consultation process began on Wednesday. Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said an evaluation of the trade pact’s results over the past five years will take place between now and the end of the year to prepare for negotiations over a possible extension of the agreement in 2026. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, which estimates that the USMCA covers nearly $2 trillion in US goods and services within the region, made a similar announcement in an official notice seeking public comment on the matter. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney last month said his government would also hold industry consultations on the trade agreement this fall, though Canada’s process has not yet formally begun.

Colorado Lawmakers Considering Ag-Friendly Tax Changes

Colorado lawmakers prioritized protecting the state’s agriculture industry in some of their first bill requests Monday through the Colorado Legislature’s Water Resources and Agriculture Review Committee. The Colorado Sun reports that the committee can request up to five bills for drafting, which offers an early glimpse into their water and agricultural priorities ahead of the legislative session. Lawmakers proposed four, all focused on agriculture topics, like taxing ranches, regulating farmers markets and keeping farmland in production. One measure would have expanded the definition of “ranch” to make more types of ranches eligible for tax exemptions. Currently, people who raise certain animals, like pigs and chickens, for profit are not eligible for the same property tax relief options as other livestock operations, like cattle ranches. The new bill will include more feedback from local officials, mainly county assessors.

McDonald’s plans $200 Million Investment to Promote Regenerative Practices

McDonald’s said Monday it plans to invest $200 million over the next seven years to promote regenerative agriculture practices on cattle ranches. Associated Press reports the Chicago burger giant said the investment was its largest to date in support of regenerative agriculture in the U.S. The company has also funded regenerative projects on potato farms in Canada and Europe. “As a brand that serves more than 90% of Americans every year, we recognize the responsibility we have to help safeguard our food systems for long-term vitality,” Cesar Piña, McDonald’s chief supply chain officer for North America, said in a statement. Regenerative techniques aim to conserve water, enhance soil health and reduce the need for synthetic chemicals and fertilizers.  On cattle ranches, ranchers practicing regenerative agriculture move cattle frequently and let the land recover for weeks or months. That helps produce more grass with deeper roots, which take more carbon from the air to help improve soil.

Bird Flu Seen in Central Nebraska Dairy Cattle

Bovine bird flu is now a thing in Nebraska, according to the Nebraska Department of Agriculture (NDA). The NDA and USDA in recent days identified a case of highly pathogenic avian influenza in a dairy cattle herd in central Nebraska, reports Successful Farming. The Animal Plant Health Inspection Service, working with the National Veterinary Services Laboratories confirmed a similar strain of the virus to what infected a herd in California. Cattle are at little risk of death with proper care, and the herd has been quarantined, officials said. Nebraska State Veterinarian Dr. Roger Dudley asked the state’s cattle producers to monitor their biosecurity protocols and contact a vet if they notice any symptoms. The state warned farmers to watch for decreases in hunger and milk production, along with clear nasal discharge, tacky or loose feces, dehydration, fever, and lethargic behavior.

EPA Draft Rule on Reallocation of RFS Refinery Exemptions Creates Possible Good, Bad, & Ugly Outcomes

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has issued a draft rule regarding the potential reallocation of recently granted Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) refinery exemptions (SREs) from years 2023 and 2024 as well as for the estimated amount SREs expected for 2025. Combined, this rule will impact over two billion gallons of renewable fuels demand. In the draft rule, EPA proposed reallocating 100% of the RFS exemptions or only 50%, while also soliciting comment on doing no reallocation at all. Any reallocated volumes would be added to the 2026-2027 RFS blending volumes under the proposal. “Just a few weeks ago Iowa Renewable Fuels Association praised the EPA for committing to full reallocation in the 2026-2027 RFS rule, the co-proposal that would reallocate only 50% of the SREs would be bad news for farmers.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CDT

ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook at 2 p.m. CDT

Weekly Slaughter at 2 p.m. CDT

Weather

A slow-moving system continues to bring rounds of showers through the middle of the country on Thursday. Some heavy rain has already fallen and more areas are likely to see rain across the Southern Plains into the western Midwest. Localized flooding may be a concern for some.

Trump Administration Considering Economic Aid for Farmers: Agriculture Secretary

The Trump administration is evaluating whether to grant aid to American farmers this fall, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said Monday. “We are working with our colleagues in Congress and closely monitoring markets daily to evaluate the amount of additional assistance that might be needed this fall,” Rollins said at a meeting of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture in Rogers, Ark. Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) told The Hill that the senator “is engaging with his colleagues and the administration about the dire circumstances in rural America and the need to provide farmers resources to continue farming.” Boozman told Brownfield Ag News earlier this month that “everything is on the table” regarding assistance to farmers. Rollins’s comments come as Chinese buyers have yet to purchase soybeans from U.S. farmers, despite increased production yields relative to last year. China is utilizing soybeans as a bargaining chip in its ongoing trade negotiations with the Trump administration. 

‘The Whole Thing Is Screwed Up’: Farmers in Deep-Red Pennsylvania Struggle to Find Workers

As House Agriculture Chair G.T. Thompson prepares to introduce legislation aimed at easing the farm labor crisis, farmers in the Pennsylvania Republican’s district are hoping he’s heard their cries that they need more help right now. According to Politico, in Tioga County, where President Donald Trump won 75 percent of the vote in 2024, farmers are losing patience with the White House’s promise of a quick solution for farmworkers. Their urgent need is highlighted by stories like those of a multigenerational dairy farm that sold off all its dairy cows because the owner could not find workers. “The whole thing is screwed up,” said John Painter, a three-time Trump voter who runs an organic dairy farm in Westfield. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins’ assurances that American workers and machines can help close the gap ring hollow among farmers. “People don’t understand that if we don’t get more labor, our cows don’t get milked and our crops don’t get picked,” said Tim Wood, a dairy farmer and a member of the Pennsylvania Farm Bureau board of directors..

U.S.-India Trade Talks Continue

The U.S. and India are stepping up talks to resolve their trade tensions, with two separate teams of officials meeting in New Delhi this week, according to a Bloomberg report. The Indian team began talks Tuesday morning with the visiting U.S. trade delegation led by Brendan Lynch, assistant trade representative for South and Central Asia, a person familiar with the matter said in New Delhi, asking not to be identified as the discussions are private. The meeting between the trade teams is expected to decide the future course of India-U.S. negotiations, India’s chief negotiator Rajesh Agrawal said on Monday. The two sides are seeking to resolve their differences after the U.S. slapped India with a 50% tariff last month — the highest in Asia — to penalize the country for its trade barriers and Russian oil purchases.

Maximize Soybean Yields: Harvesting This Week Could Be Key

The crop is drying down rapidly, given the weather conditions across much of the country. Agronomists are concerned farmers will combine fields too late and advise starting at 13% moisture or even higher. So if you’re wondering whether you need to harvest soybeans soon, the answer is yes – maybe even this week – according to Farm Journal Field Agronomists Ken Ferrie and Missy Bauer. The weather pattern that has set in across much of the Midwest is resulting in a rapid drydown of soybean crops, advancing moisture losses in the beans (seeds) faster than what many farmers might be anticipating. The U.S. Drought Monitor released last Thursday, Sept. 11, reports nearly one-fourth (22%) of all soybean acres are experiencing some level of extreme dryness or drought. Because drydown is going quickly, Ferrie and Bauer are concerned growers are going to wind up harvesting soybeans with less moisture than desired, and that could be a huge negative for yield outcomes. 

Lowballed by Eminent Domain, ND Farmers Appeal Landmark Case to Supreme Court

The North Dakota government is forcing producers to pick between two poisons: Accept below-market offers for property or drown in legal costs. According to Farm Journal, Leonard Hoffmann was offered roughly half the market rate for gas pipeline access across his pastureland, backed by the threat of eminent domain. He spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in court to contest the offer, but despite winning, Hoffmann received a financial hammer blow: pay all legal costs. In a staggering ruling, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit declared Hoffmann must foot the bill to challenge below-market land offers—even though he won on the issue related to the use of other pipeline easement transactions as comparable sales. He proved his case that he is entitled to recover fees, but according to the Eighth Circuit, if a landowner dares to challenge a government-backed gas giant, the landowner loses either at the get-go or the finish line. Huffmann, is taking his case directly to the Supreme Court of the United States, represented by the Institute for Justice. 

Midwest Expecting to See Stormy Weather

The National Weather Service today reported that across the mid-section of the country rounds of heavy rain associated with clusters of thunderstorms can be expected today into Wednesday in large sections of the central to northern Plains in response to a mid- to upper-level system pushing out of the northern Rockies. From Wednesday into Thursday, a low-pressure system is forecast to become more consolidated over the north-central U.S. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage especially on Wednesday across the central to northern Plains, with these showers and thunderstorms continuing into Thursday as the system will be moving slowly. “These rains will bring relief to areas of western Nebraska and southern South Dakota that are experiencing abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions,” said the NWS. Temperatures across the lower 48 states will be above average temperatures over the next few days in the last full week of summer.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

StatsCan Model-based Principal Field Crop Estimates – August at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Housing starts and Building permits at 7:30 a.m. CDT

EIA Petroleum Status Report including weekly ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CDT

Federal Reserve September Interest Rate Decision at 1 p.m. CDT followed by Fed Chair Powell Press Conference

Weather

An extremely slow-moving system in the Plains continues to produce widespread rainfall for the middle of the country on Wednesday. Because it is moving so slowly, rainfall amounts are heavy in some areas and could produce some localized flooding over the next couple of days.

Are We Seeing Signs of Cattle Herd Rebuilding?

The U.S. beef cow inventory has reached its lowest point since 1962, reports Drover, marking what appears to be the bottom of the current cattle cycle. Tight supply is driving the strong pricing environment beef producers are enjoying today. “For cow-calf producers right now, things are as good as they’ve probably ever been,” says Troy Rowan, University of Tennessee assistant professor. Agreeing with Rowan, South Dakota cattleman Ken Odde adds that while profits are currently strong, inflation quickly erodes economic gains. “The beef industry is not currently in herd expansion mode, with producers hesitant to retain heifers due to high costs and economic uncertainties,” says Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst. While the USDA reports showed the smallest U.S. herd in history and continuing tightening numbers on feed, analysts predict producers have not experienced the highest cattle prices, yet.

Farm Aid Update

Teamsters at the University of Minnesota are ending a strike that put the Farm Aid concert festival in jeopardy.  Teamsters Local 320 announced that a tentative deal was reached after the university made a new settlement proposal.  Details on the proposal are unclear.  During the strike Farm Aid organizers had said their artists, production team, and partners wouldn't cross the picket line, saying in a statement the farm and labor movements are inseparable, and that the university must return to the bargaining table.  The annual festival honors the resilience of American farmers and the organization's history of standing with farmers, workers, and communities to build a more sustainable and just food system.  The event was founded by Willie Nelson, Neil Young, and John Mellencamp and is scheduled for September 20th at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.

NC Governor Asks Congress for More Hurricane Helene Relief for Farmers

As the one-year mark of Hurricane Helene nears, Governor Josh Stein is preparing to deliver his latest federal budget request, calling on Congress to provide more aid to North Carolina. While the state has received federal money, the governor has said it's not nearly what's needed as Western North Carolina continues to rebuild. Gov. Stein said he is asking for $13 billion in federal funds to help rebuild. He also said North Carolina has not received its fair share. Farmers in western North Carolina are shocked at what they describe as tiny state Agriculture Department reimbursement checks to cover massive Hurricane Helene crop damage, "This is a check for disaster relief from the state," said Randy Edmundson, a farmer in Henderson County. "The check is for $5,151. I'm very disappointed." He estimates his loss on bean crops alone was $125,000. A spokesperson for the North Carolina Department of agriculture said the disaster relief money is being sent out in categories, so farmers may receive a number of checks.

Soybean Farmers Face ‘Desperate Situation’ Amid Inflation, Weather Extremes, and Tariffs

As soybean farmers harvest their crop after a difficult growing season, they are facing a farm economy that resembles “death by a thousand cuts,” Tennessee Soybean Promotion Council Executive Director Stefan Maupin said. Persistent inflation since the pandemic has made it more expensive for farmers to produce crops, and weather extremes over the last year mean they will see a significant loss in yield, he said. On top of that, bushels will soon hit a market where prices are low and the largest soybean export partner, China, is entirely absent amid trade negotiations with the Trump administration. “We’re in a significant and desperate situation where … none of the crops that farmers grow right now return a profit,” Maupin said. “They don’t even break even.” Another year in the red will be tough to survive for farmers still struggling to recover from last year’s losses, he added. 

U.S. Preparing for ‘Critical Threat’ to U.S. Agriculture, USDA Leader Says During Oklahoma Stop

With no active cases of New World Screwworm (NWS) reported in the United States, the USDA is working to prevent its spread from Central America. Successful Farming reports U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins outlined the Department of Agriculture’s plan to prevent the spread of NWS to the U.S., including a partnership with the government of Mexico. NWS is a fly that lays eggs in the wounds of living animals and its larvae burrow and feed on healthy flesh, causing illness or death. The insect usually infects livestock and is typically found in South and Central America, but one case was detected in a human this summer who had returned from travel to El Salvador. “President Trump’s America First agenda means our (agricultural) community deserves unwavering support in the face of critical threats like this one,” she said. “As the situation evolves, we will continue our efforts to keep vulnerable livestock ranchers and the rest of America safe. The U.S. has defeated the NWS before, and we will do it again.”

USDA to Invest Up to $18 Million in Farm to School Grants

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced it has improved and expanded its Farm to School Grant program and would invest up to $18 million to connect locally grown food to child nutrition programs.  The Farm to School Grant announcement was made alongside U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s latest Make America Healthy Again report, which called for more whole, unprocessed foods in children’s diets. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the grants are “one of the best ways we can deliver nutritious, high-quality meals to children, while also strengthening local agriculture.”  “These grants will open new doors for small family farms, expand access to healthy food in schools, and inspire the next generation of Great American Farmers,” Rollins said in the news release. State agencies, tribal organizations, child nutrition programs, nonprofits, agricultural producers and groups of producers can apply for grants from $100,000–500,000 to support new and existing farm-to-school projects.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Import Price Index at 7:30 a.m. CDT

U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity at 8:15 a.m. CDT

ERS Feed Grains Database update at 1 p.m. CDT

ERS Commodity Outlooks at 2 p.m. CDT

Weather

A slow-moving system continues to wobble around the Central U.S. on Tuesday. Areas of showers and thunderstorms will be possible between the Rockies and Mississippi River with a particular emphasis from western Kansas up into eastern South Dakota later Tuesday that could bring some areas of heavy rain and potential severe weather.

Key Takeaways from September WASDE

The September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report today included farm surveys along with soybean pod counts and corn ear weights. For the 2025-26 marketing year, U.S. ending stocks were reported as:

• Corn at 2.11 billion bushels, nearly unchanged from 2.117 billion last month, but above the 2.011 billion trade estimate.

• Soybeans at 300 million bushels, up from 290 million last month, and above the 288 million bushels traders expected.

Ohio Country Journal reports that after the report was released, corn was down 1 cent, soybeans up 3 cents, and wheat down 4 cents. Prior to the noon report, corn was up 4 cents, soybeans up 8 cents, and wheat down 2 cents. Both corn and soybeans remain in bear market mode, but in two vastly different bearish scenarios. Corn is a “supply bear,” due to record U.S. corn production and yields. Note that U.S. corn exports are strong, increasing with seven WASDE reports in the 2024-25 marketing year. Many expect that the strong corn export picture will continue into the new crop marketing year, which began on September 1. Soybeans are in a “demand bear,” due to huge demand concerns for U.S. exports. China remains determined not to buy U.S. soybeans due to tariff concerns.

Conab Raises Brazil Soybean, Corn Production Estimates

Brazil’s farmers harvested a record 171.47 million MT of soybeans and a record 139.67 million MT of corn in the 2024/2025 season, Brazilian crop agency Conab said on Thursday in its final grain production report covering the period. Reuters reports the final numbers represent a 1.82 million MT increase in soybean production and a 2.67 million MT rise in total corn production compared to Conab's August forecast. Conab also revised soybean area and yields for all seasons between 2020/21 and 2024/25, resulting in a cumulative increase of 13.12 million MT in estimated production during the period. Conab also raised Brazil's soybean export forecast for the 2024/25 season, saying the country will ship 400,000 MT more than it expected last month, or 106.65 million MT. Brazil sells most of its soybeans to China and continues to book sales due to stalled trade talks between the U.S. and China halfway through the prime of the U.S. soybean marketing season.

Butter Price Continues to Drop

Butter prices have fallen to their lowest level since November 2021, dropping to $1.96 1/2 per pound on the close of Wednesday. Ever.Ag dairy analyst Katie Burgess says the sharp decline raises key questions: Why are prices falling at a time when demand typically increases, and could consumers see more aggressive grocery store promotions heading into the holiday season? Burgess says the collapse is largely driven by record-high butterfat levels on U.S. dairy farms. Advances in genetics and nutrition, such as improved genomic testing and specialized feed, have boosted the fat content in milk. This has led to an abundance of cream and, in turn, a surge in butter production. With bulk butter supplies swelling, prices have sunk to four-year lows, an unusual trend for late summer when prices typically rise. “In a typical year, you tend to see the price for bulk butter spike in September and October, right as we’re heading into that holiday baking season,” Burgess explains. 

Fertilizer Decisions for 2026 Crop Will Be a Balancing Act

Fertilizer prices aren’t at historic highs, but relative to last year’s prices and the current prices for crop commodities, they are elevated. According to data from USDA and analysis by University of Illinois Farmdoc, fertilizer prices in the state are 6% to 20% higher than early fall 2024. High yields lead to high nutrient removal rates, but next year, nutrient replacement and feeding a new crop will come at a higher cost. Pro Farmer reports the price trends weigh heavier on farmers who are starting next year’s crop with what could be a lower nutrient baseline. “We have two realities here. We have the reality of economics, and we have the reality of that crops have a core need for nutrients,” says Karl Wyant, Nutrien’s director of agronomy. Wyant says therein lies the balance for farmers — keep soils productive while considering the cost to do so. His best advice — root your decision in data.

EPA Withdraws Proposed Rule for More Stringent Water Pollution Guidelines at Slaughterhouses

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has withdrawn a January 2024 proposed rule that would have reduced the discharge of nutrients and pollutants from meat packing plants and slaughterhouses. According to Successful Farming, the agency said it chose to withdraw the rules in an effort to prioritize the nation’s food supply and to keep food prices down. The proposed rules would have revised effluent limitations guidelines and standards, or ELG,s for the meat and poultry products industry. This industry, which the agency refers to as MPP, includes facilities that slaughter, dress, and pack meat and poultry products for human or animal consumption. “In the EPA’s judgment, it is not appropriate to impose additional regulation on the MPP industry, given Administration priorities and policy concerns, including protecting food supply and mitigating inflationary prices for American consumers following a protracted period of high inflation from 2020 through 2024.”

State Board Awards $2.8 Million in Tax Relief to Solar Farm and $10 Million Loan to Cheese Factory

A South Dakota economic development board this week approved up to $2.8 million in tax relief for Grant Solar LLC to build a solar farm. The board also approved a ten-million dollar state loan to Bel Brands, a cheese factory known for producing mini-cheese wheels dipped in red wax, and a $7,500 state grant to help local businesses grow. Officials expect the projects to result in a combined $395 million in private investment and create 163 jobs. “We’re supporting a major expansion in food production, investing in renewable energy, and fueling local economic development,” Gov. Larry Rhoden said in a press release. “Each project strengthens our communities and ensures long-term growth for our state.”  The Board of Economic Development approved the awards Wednesday.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CDT

ERS Season Average Price Forecasts at 1 p.m. CDT

ERS Wheat Data at 1 p.m. CDT

Crop Progress Report at 3 p.m. CDT

Weather

A slow-moving system is moving the bulk of its energy into the Canadian Prairies Monday morning, but will leave behind enough energy to produce isolated to perhaps scattered showers from the Pacific Northwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley throughout the day. Temperatures continue to be quite warm for mid-September.