Prop 12 Threatens All of American Agriculture

Lori Stevermer, president of the National Pork Producers Council, testified before the U.S. Senate Ag Committee on the state of the U.S. agricultural economy. Stevermer highlighted the top pork industry issue, California’s Prop 12, a state regulation posing an “existential threat” to all of U.S. agriculture. “We must fix the problems caused by Prop 12, which has increased farmers’ operating costs, created business uncertainty, and raised pork prices at the grocery store,” she said. “We stand with farmers across the country and are grateful to have the support of both President Trump and President Biden in clearly and decisively opposing Prop 12.” Developed without input from pork producers, veterinarian, or animal welfare experts, Prop 12 prohibits the sale of uncooked whole pork meat not produced under the law’s arbitrary and costly housing dimensions. Other industry priorities she discussed included preventing foreign animal diseases, ongoing trade issues, and finding enough labor.

Farmers to Plant More Corn Than First Thought

U.S. farmers are seriously considering planting more corn and less soybean acres this spring than they did last year. Both growers and analysts told Reuters that they’re hoping to squeeze out more profits and shield themselves from possible tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Frayne Olson, an ag economist at North Dakota State University, says when you look at the profitability of each crop, corn is winning in the acreage battle. Iowa State University economist Chad Hart says it’s possible that some farmers may be able to earn “a nickel or two” on every corn bushel. For soybeans and other crops, prices have fallen below what it costs to produce them. “Given what the cost structures look like right now, corn has the best chance to make a little profit in 2025.” Several industry analysts are forecasting corn plantings will rise to 93.6 million acres, while soybean planting dropping to 84.4 million acres.

USDA Accepting Applications for Peru Trade Mission

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service is accepting applications for an agribusiness trade mission to Peru scheduled for June 9-12, 2025. Current and potential U.S. exporters interested in participating must apply by March 12. “Consumers in Peru are eager to stock their pantries with world-class, high-quality food and farm products, and this mission offers a unique opportunity for U.S. exporters to meet that growing demand,” says Daniel Whitley, FAS Administrator. “It will also help our agricultural community forge meaningful partnerships and unlock new avenues for growth in South America.” Peru is the third-largest market for American ag exports to South America. Since the 2009 U.S.-Peru Trade Agreement, bilateral agricultural trade has risen from $1.46 billion to $5 billion in 2023, a 242 percent increase. In 2023, the U.S. was Peru’s second-largest agricultural supplier with a 13 percent market share. Opportunities exist for beef, pork, and poultry products, dairy, tree nuts, and more.

U.S. Ethanol Supporters React to EU Court Decision

Leaders of the U.S. ethanol and sustainable aviation fuel industries were disappointed by an EU court’s decision to dismiss a challenge to the ReFuelEU Aviation regulations brought by EU biofuel producers. The court ruled that ePURE and Pannonia Bio lacked the standing needed to bring the challenge that asserted the EU’s sustainable aviation fuel regulation illegally discriminates against crop-based biofuels. In May 2024, groups including Growth Energy and the U.S. Grains Council petitioned the court to intervene in support of the European biofuel interests. But because the underlying challenge was dismissed, the objections to the EU regulation raised by the U.S. groups were not considered by the court. “We are disappointed and strongly disagree with the Court’s finding that biofuel producers in the EU and U.S., who both manufacture the biofuels that become SAF, are not harmed or affected by the EU’s unfair and unscientific SAF requirements,” the U.S. groups said.

2025 NASDA Policy Calls for Significant Labor Reform

At its 2025 Winter Policy Conference, the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture called on Congress to develop comprehensive strategies to address agricultural labor challenges and border security. The new policy item says comprehensive agricultural labor reform is needed to allow access to the H-2A program for year-round agriculture industries, creating a pathway to legal status for agriculture and agribusiness workers who are employed but may be under questionable status. “Labor shortages in the agricultural industry affect the entire supply chain, making it more difficult for the country to compete in the global marketplace and weakening our local economies,” says NASDA CEO Ted McKinney. “Given the range of agricultural production represented by NASDA members and the nonpartisan nature of our organization, NASDA intends to continue to be actively engaged on labor reform at the national level.” Other policy priorities include supporting farmers and increasing U.S. biofuel production levels.

Dairy Groups React to Update HPAI Response Plan

The National Milk Producers Federation and the International Dairy Foods Association reacted positively to the USDA’s updated response plan for combating highly pathogenic avian influenza. “Dairy farmers and cooperatives appreciate USDA’s leadership in supporting American agriculture and safeguarding animal health as it deals with what soon will be a second year of H5N1 bird flu disruptions in dairy cattle,” says NMPF president and CEO Gregg Doud. “Dairy farmers and all of agriculture take biosecurity seriously, and we’re thankful for these actions that will further those efforts.” IDFA President and CEO Dr. Michael Dykes, says they’re grateful Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins invested up to $100 million in new and ongoing research into animal vaccinations and therapeutic tools to manage HPAI in the nation’s dairy herds and commercial poultry flocks. “We continue to urge the agency to quickly develop and approve safe and effective bovine vaccines to guard against the disease,” Dykes said.

Friday Watch List

Markets

USDA 2025 Ag Outlook Forum Day 2 -- Program begins at 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure for January at 7:30 a.m. CST

Advanced International Trade in Goods at 7:30 am CST

Mato Grosso (Brazil) Institute of Agricultural Economics' Weekly Crop Report at 1 p.m. CST

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report at 2:30 p.m. CST

Weather

A clipper system will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes Friday, mainly leading to snowfall near the U.S.-Canada border. Gusty, northwest winds are expected through the Dakotas into the western Midwest, with gusts reaching as high as 45-55 mph. Gusty winds, dry air, and mostly dry conditions will lead to elevated wildfire conditions across South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri Friday.

USDA to Spend One Billion Dollars to Curb HPAI

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced a $1 billion comprehensive strategy to curb highly pathogenic avian influenza, protect the U.S. poultry industry, and lower egg prices. This is in addition to funding already being provided to indemnify growers for depopulated flocks. As the Secretary outlined in a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece, she has a five-pronged strategy that includes an additional $500 million for biosecurity measures, $400 million in financial relief for affected farmers, and $100 million for vaccine research, action to reduce regulatory burdens and explore temporary import options. “The Biden administration did little to address the repeated outbreaks and high egg prices that followed,” the Secretary said. “The Trump administration is taking the issue seriously. American farmers need relief, and American consumers need affordable food.” Rollins also said, “To every family struggling to buy eggs, we hear you, we’re fighting for you, and help is on the way.”

Rural Mainstreet Index Hits New Low Due to Uncertainty

For the 17th time in the last 18 months, the Rural Mainstreet Index dropped below 50 in February. That’s from the monthly survey of bank CEOs across a ten-state region reliant on agriculture and energy. The index fell to a concerning 38 in February, down from 42.3 in January. The RMI ranges from 0 to 100, with a score of 50 equaling growth-neutral status. Only nine percent of bankers anticipate positive outcomes for Rural Mainstreet resulting from President Trump’s tariff policies. “The economic outlook for grain farmers looks bleak for 2025,” says Ernie Goss of Creighton University. “While there has been a recent uptick in grain prices, it’s not enough for profitability.” On the other side of the index, regional livestock producers are experiencing good prices, with only nine percent of bankers predicting negative cash flow for ranchers in 2025. Farm equipment sales also dropped for the 18th straight month.

Bipartisan Bill Would Crack Down on Foreign Purchases of Farmland

Senators Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) introduced the Farmland Security Act of 2025 to help safeguard rural communities and protect American farmland from being secretly bought by foreign investors. The bipartisan legislation will build on current law to ensure that all foreign investors, including “shell companies” who buy American agricultural land, report their holdings, strengthen penalties for those who evade filing, and invest in research to better understand the impact foreign ownership of American farmland has on agricultural production capacity. “America’s farmland is critical to the health of our rural communities and our national security,” says Baldwin. “Our legislation will help bring to light foreign investments in rural America, so we know who’s buying up land critical to our safety and the future of U.S. agriculture.” USDA has cataloged foreign ownership of approximately 45 million acres of American agricultural land, an 85 percent increase since 2010.

Democrats Press USDA on Indiscriminate Layoffs

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Ranking Member of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee, led all committee Democrats in pressing the USDA to explain the recent mass layoffs at the Department. The Senators asked how many USDA employees were fired and for a breakdown by state, agency, job position, and veteran status, all details the administration has not provided to date. “These widespread layoffs jeopardize USDA’s ability to respond to the ongoing avian flu outbreak, process farm loans, disaster relief and other assistance for farmers, and distribute grants and loans for infrastructure and services that rural Americans rely on,” the Senators wrote in a letter to Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins. The Senators also said they have deep concerns that the termination of thousands of nonpartisan USDA employees and contracts in less than a month will hinder the Department’s ability to address the challenges facing American agriculture and rural America.

Beef and Dairy Crossbred Cattle Boosting Beef Supply Chain

The USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service released new data showing the impact of beef and dairy crossbred cattle on the beef supply chain. While limited in scope, the data collected to date suggests the growing number of beef-on-dairy animals is contributing to higher cattle prices for producers and delivering added value to feedlots and processors. The practice of using beef genetics in dairy reproductive programs, commonly referred to as “beef on dairy” within the industry, has steadily increased as the U.S. beef cow herd has contracted. According to an analysis outlined in a new CoBank Knowledge Exchange report, the slaughter auction prices for beef-on-dairy cattle were slightly higher than for beef cattle and significantly higher than for dairy cattle. The weight of beef-on-dairy animals fell between the ends of the beef and dairy cattle spectrums. Beef-on-dairy cattle maintained the largest portion of their value from feeder cattle price to slaughter cattle auction price.

Greer Confirmed as USTR

The Senate confirmed Jamieson Greer as the new United States Trade Representative and U.S. agriculture groups offered congratulations to the new chief. “He steps into the job at a critical time for American agriculture,” says Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall. “Growing trade imbalances and potential tariffs by trading partners threaten rural America with even more economic hardship.” Growth Energy also applauded the confirmation. “After a record-setting year for exports, the U.S. biofuels industry is more focused than ever on accelerating growth through international sales,” said Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor. “Accomplishing that goal will require a strong voice to speak on behalf of America’s farmers and biofuel producers when negotiating new trade agreements, expanding export markets, and addressing unfair trade issues.” Greer is a trade lawyer who served as chief of staff to then-USTR Robert Lighthizer during the previous Trump administration. Five Democrats and 51 Republicans voted for the confirmation.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

2025 USDA Ag Outlook Forum

Commodity Outlooks available at 6 a.m. CST

Program begins at 7 a.m. CST (register virtually on USDA website)

Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CST

Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CST

Q4 2024 GDP -- Second Reading at 7:30 a.m. CST

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange Argentina Crop Conditions Update at 12 :00 p.m. CST

Weekly Slaughter Report at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

On the back side of Wednesday's clipper system, another disturbance will provide a few isolated rain showers to the Great Lakes Thursday. Light snow showers may try to mix in at times, but accumulations will be minor. High pressure will keep the Plains dry today and temperatures remain above average

Trump Says 25 Percent Tariffs on Canada, Mexico Are Going Forward

U.S. President Donald Trump says tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are still going forward despite efforts by both countries to boost border security and halt fentanyl ahead of the March 4 deadline. During a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron, he told reporters that the tariffs are “going forward on time, on schedule.” Reuters said many were hopeful the top two U.S. trade partners could persuade the administration to hold off on the tariffs that would apply to over $918 billion worth of U.S. imports from the two countries. During the press conference, Trump didn’t specifically mention the March 4 deadline but later restated his desire for reciprocal tariffs to match the duty rates and offset the trade barriers of all countries. The Associated Press says the president claims that the taxes on imports would generate revenues to help reduce the budget deficit and new jobs for workers.

USDA Leading March Trade Mission to Guatemala

The USDA will spearhead a trade mission to Guatemala from March 3-7 to strengthen trade ties and expand U.S. agricultural exports across Central America. The mission includes more than two dozen agribusinesses, trade organizations, and representatives from two state departments of agriculture. “Strengthening export opportunities for American farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses is a top priority of USDA,” said Foreign Agricultural Service Acting Associate Administrator Mark Slupek. “The trade mission will connect U.S. producers with key buyers in Central America.” Guatemala is the largest economy and most populous country in Central America, with projections indicating continued economic growth. In 2024, it was the largest Central American market for U.S. agricultural products and the 16th largest globally, with exports totaling $1.9 billion. That same year, U.S. agricultural exports reached $1.4 billion to Honduras and $832 million to El Salvador. Guatemala and its neighbors are covered by the Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement.

Crop Insurance Deadline Draws Near

The USDA reminds agricultural producers that the final date to apply for or make changes to their existing crop insurance coverage is approaching for spring planted crops, Whole-Farm Revenue Protection, and Micro Farm. Sales closing dates vary by crop and location, but the next major closing dates are February 28, March 15, and April 15. The USDA’s Risk Management Agency lists the closing dates in the Actuarial Information Brower under the “Dates” tab. Producers can also access the RMA Map Viewer tool to visualize the insurance program date choices for acreage reporting, cancelation, contract changes, earliest planting dates, and other important details. Producers are encouraged to visit their crop insurance agent soon to learn specific details for the 2025 crop year. Crop insurance coverage decisions must be made on or before the sales closing date. Producers can access the RMA Information Reporting System tool to identify applicable dates for their operations.

Doud Urges More Trade Opportunities for Dairy

Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, told the House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee about the paramount importance of expanding market access and enforcing existing trade agreements for America’s dairy producers, workers, and exporters. “To keep up with our competitors from Europe and New Zealand, our dairy exporters need new trade deals that cut tariffs and tackle non-tariff barriers,” Doud said in written testimony. “Whether the U.S. government prioritizes the enforcement of the trade agreements it has negotiated and addresses trade barriers targeting U.S. exports will determine whether America’s farmers and workers will benefit from the market access that has and will be promised.” Last year, U.S. dairy exported close to $8.3 billion in dairy products overseas, supporting thousands of jobs across the country, despite competing against global counterparts who benefit from more recent and expansive trade agreements. “Our competitors aren’t slowing down,” he added.

EPA Allows Expanded E15 Access in Eight Midwest States

The Environmental Protection Agency says it will uphold the current April 28, 2025 implementation date for year-round use of E15 and E10 in eight states. The action provides certainty for fuel suppliers and expands consumer access to year-round E15 in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin says this underscores EPA’s commitment to consumer access to E15 while ensuring a smooth transition for fuel suppliers and refiners. The approach provides certainty for states that are ready to move forward with year-round E15, while also accommodating those states that requested additional time. The EPA intends to consider granting requests for a one-year delay for those states seeking additional time for compliance. Any state requesting a one-year delay must notify the EPA in writing no later than this Wednesday, February 26. Congress is negotiating a plan to allow for the permanent, year-round sale of E15 nationwide.

January Egg Production Drops Four Percent

U.S. egg production totaled 8.86 billion during January 2025, down four percent from last year. Production included 7.57 billion table eggs and 1.3 billion hatching eggs. Of the hatching egg total, 1.2 billion were broiler-type, and 100 million were egg-type. The total number of layers during January 2025 averaged 363 million, down four percent from last year. January egg production per 100 layers was 2,440 eggs, down slightly from January 2024. All layers in the U.S. on February 1, 2025, totaled 357 million, down five percent from last year. The 357 million layers consisted of 292 million layers producing table or market eggs, 61.9 million layers producing broiler-type hatching eggs, and 3.92 million layers producing egg-type hatching eggs. Egg-type chicks hatched during January 2025 totaled 56.4 million, up six percent from January 2024. Broiler-type chicks hatched during January totaled 869 million, up three percent from January 2024.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. New Home Sales at 9 a.m. CST

EIA Petroleum Status Report including ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CST

USDA Cold Storage Report at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

A clipper system will continue to move east through the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday, providing spotty light rain showers. Temperatures may be cold enough for a few wet snow showers or freezing drizzle to develop, especially across southern Michigan, northern Indiana, and northern Ohio.

Replacement Dairy Heifers Tumble to 47-year Low

USDA just released its Cattle report. Any way you work the corral, there’s fewer heifers in that corral with each passing year as dairy farmers pivot to breeding dairy cows to native beef bulls to capitalize on record beef prices. That trend will not slow down anytime soon, as live cattle futures have pushed into the $200-per-cwt range and represent an all-time high. In its latest estimate, published in late January, USDA projects there are 3.914 million dairy heifers in the 500-pounds-and-higher category. Generally speaking, those dairy heifers 500 pounds and larger are either ready to enter breeding pens or those that are pregnant and will soon enter the milk barn. That 3.914 million total is the lowest since 1978, when USDA calculated that there were 3.886 million heifers in that herd category.

USDA Drops 2025 Milk Production Forecast

A slight drop in dairy production has led to varied prices for the month of February. USDA reduced production by 400 million pounds based on recent Milk Production and Cattle Inventory Reports. They showed a tighter supply of dairy heifers than expected. World Ag Outlook Board Chair Mark Jekanowski said that the month-over-month changes on prices are notable. Jakanowski said, “In terms of product prices, kind of mixed there. So, cheese prices we raised $0.02 per pound, reflecting pretty tight inventories, but the other main products— butter, non-fat dry milk, dry whey. We lowered butter, we reduced $0.05 per pound. Non-fat dry is down $0.04 and dry whey forecast we reduced $0.03 per pound...” Meanwhile, all milk prices fell compared to the month prior. Jekanowski attributes some of this month’s price changes to the new Federal Milk Marketing Order. That is especially true for class prices, because of changes to how they are calculated.

EPA Changes Create Unintended Consequences

A lot is happening these days at the Environmental Protection Agency, including Endangered Species Act changes that will impact farmers across the country. Trump’s nominee Lee Zeldin is the new EPA administrator, but it’s unclear yet how funding cuts will affect the agency. Look for plenty of movement at the agency. Including a physical move of EPA’s headquarters out of Washington, D.C. and cutting of existing regulations when new ones are added. Expect to see budget cuts. The number of employees at EPA’s pesticide policy office has declined dramatically, meaning fewer folks are available to approve pesticides and re-register existing ones. The result? A likely longer wait time for pesticide registration.

Canada Stocks Avian Flu Vaccine as H5N1 Found in U.S. Rats

For the first time, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has confirmed the presence of H5N1 avian influenza in rats, raising fresh concerns about the virus’s ability to spread among mammals. The infected black rats were found in Riverside County, California, near recent poultry outbreaks. This discovery comes amid broader concerns about avian flu transmission, with additional detections in a harbor seal, a fox, a bobcat, and a domestic cat. In response to the ongoing threat, the Public Health Agency of Canada has secured 500,000 doses of GSK’s human vaccine against avian influenza to protect those at the highest risk of exposure. Canada’s National Advisory Committee on Immunization has recommended targeted use for individuals with potential exposure, such as lab workers and those handling infected animals. Other countries, including the U.S., the EU, and the UK, have also stockpiled avian flu vaccines, with Finland already administering doses to high-risk workers.

Farm Bankruptcies Increased 55% in 2024

An indicator of farm financial health across the country, Chapter 12 bankruptcy provides farmers and ranchers with increased flexibility for paying off debt, and is used when all other options have been exhausted. AFBF Market Intel reports have long followed annual filings of Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies, through good and bad years for the farm economy. Unfortunately, as we look ahead to another year of declining farm receipts, particularly in crop markets, we can look back to 2024 and see the impacts of that drop in income in the increase in the number of farms filing for bankruptcy. The U.S. Courts reports that 216 farm bankruptcies were filed in 2024, up 55% from 2023. This is still 64% lower than the all-time high of 599 filings in 2019. All but one region had increases in Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings last year. Bankruptcy filings in territories and states outside the contiguous 48 states more than tripled in 2024

MyLand Announces $4.8M Program to Enhance Soil Health in Washington State

MyLand, a leading innovator in soil health, today announced a new $4.8 million dollar opportunity in Washington State to enhance soil health for farmers. The program, funded in combination by the Washington State Department of Agriculture and Washington State Department of Commerce, focuses on supporting sustainable agricultural practices and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. MyLand’s new program, aiming to cover 9,000 acres in Washington, is supported with funding from Washington’s Climate Commitment Act (CCA). The CCA supports Washington’s climate action efforts by putting cap-and-invest dollars to work reducing climate pollution, creating jobs, and improving public health. Growers that qualify to participate in the program will receive the MyLand Service at no cost in the first year. The MyLand Service leverages the power of live, native microalgae to rejuvenate soil health, improving productivity, profitability, and sustainability. MyLand integrates seamlessly into existing farm operations, providing a scalable, farmer-friendly service that delivers measurable improvements across key metrics like crop yields, product quality, water efficiency, and soil vitality.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Food Price Outlook -- ERS at 8 a.m. CST

Consumer Confidence at 9 a.m. CST

Weather

A clipper system is in the Midwest with isolated showers Tuesday morning that will head through the Northeast. Another clipper will move out into the Northern Plains Tuesday with some isolated showers of its own before moving through the Midwest on Wednesday.

USDA Says It Will Release $20 Million of Frozen Farmer Funds

USDA will release approximately $20 million in funding for previously approved contracts that had been frozen by the Trump administration’s push to overhaul the federal government, the agency said late on Thursday. The sum represents a tiny sliver of program funding the USDA suspended after the White House’s broad freeze of federal loans and grants last month. Although the administration rescinded the memo ordering the freeze and it has been blocked in court, a U.S. judge has said the government was still withholding funds. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the released funds will go to honor contracts that were already made directly with farmers, according to a statement on the USDA’s website. The USDA is releasing $20 million in contracts for the Environmental Quality Incentive Program, the Conservation Stewardship Program and the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program.

Farm Bankruptcies Up Sharply in 2024

Federal courts report that 216 farm bankruptcies were filed in 2024, up 55% from 2023. All but one region had increases in Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings last year. Bankruptcy filings in territories and states outside the contiguous 48 states – designated “Other” by the U.S. Courts – more than tripled in 2024, hitting a five-year high of 14 bankruptcies. However, this is still lower than any year between 2007 and 2019. The American Farm Bureau reports Chapter 12 bankruptcies filed in the Northwest doubled from 2023 to 2024. With 12 filings, they tied the Southwest for the region with the second fewest filings. The Southwest was the only region with a decrease in filings (down 14% from 2023) after being the only region to increase in Chapter 12 filings in 2023. After experiencing significant droughts and weather-related losses in the Southwest in 2023, all states except Utah had lower weather losses in 2024. All other regions – Southeast, West, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest – had double-digit increases in filings from 2023 to 2024.

Ohio Poultry Farmers Push Lawmakers for Additional Funding, Vaccines

Since the beginning of this year, Ohio poultry farmers have culled almost 11 million birds infected with avian flu according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In an update to state lawmakers, Ohio Poultry Association Executive Vice President Jim Chakeres said the virus has wreaked havoc on commercial flocks. Ohio’s 2025 highly pathogenic avian influenza figures continue to outpace the rest of the country. The 10.9 million birds reported culled through of Feb. 14 is 4 million more than the next closest state — Indiana — and about half a million more than Ohio Capital Journal’s last report, which included USDA data through Feb. 10. The virus has spilled from birds to cows and there have been 68 confirmed cases of bird flu in humans since the beginning of 2024. One of those cases was in Ohio, and another, in Louisiana, proved fatal. Still, state and federal health officials say there have been no incidents of person-to-person transmission and the public health risks remain low.

California Senate Bill Takes Aim at Saving Farm Lands

A bill before the California state legislature would help pay landowners who promise to keep their land in farming. Amid a push by local leaders to conserve farmland and open spaces in the Bay Area from future development, state senator David Cortese has introduced a bill that would shore up funding to preserve agricultural land throughout the state despite the measure’s uncertain financial outlook. The bill, SB 462, would bolster an existing program called the California Farmland Conservancy Program, which supports agricultural conservation and sustainable land management. If enacted into law, the bill would offer an annual $20 million infusion of funds dedicated specifically to conservation easements. Under that system, the landowner receives payment in exchange for permanently limiting their land to agricultural use – even if it changes owners. The best part is that it is dollars going directly into agricultural preservation.

Stricter Lobster Fishing Rules Scrapped After Complaints from Fishermen

Fishing industry regulators have decided to scrap stricter new lobster fishing standards off New England in the wake of months of protest from lobster fishermen that the rules were unnecessary and would bankrupt harvesters. The regulators were planning to institute new rules this summer that increased the minimum legal harvest size for lobsters in some of the most important fishing grounds in the world. The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Council, which manages the fishery, said the changes were important to preserve the future of a lobster population that has shown recent signs of decline. Many commercial fishermen adamantly opposed the changes, which would have required them to throw back previously market-ready lobsters. An arm of the commission voted on Feb. 4 to initiate a repeal of the new rules in the face of fervent industry concerns about the potential economic impacts of the changes, the commission said in a statement.

UPL’s Latest Corn Herbicide Offers New Active Ingredient

Amicarbazone offers increased control over atrazine- and HPPD-resistant pigweeds. UPL Corp. announced the EPA registration of Intrava DX, a preemergent herbicide for corn. The Group 5 herbicide will be available for use this season and aims to offer control over atrazine- and HPPD-resistant pigweeds as well as a broad spectrum of grasses and broadleaf weeds. Intrava DX contains amicarbazone, a new active ingredient for the corn market that has no known resistance issues. Partnered with metribuzin, these active ingredients should offer 30-plus days of residual control. The product will give growers an effective and long-lasting residual solution to growing threats from atrazine and HPPD-resistant weeds in a news release. We are also committed to building on this novel active ingredient in corn to develop an exciting Intrava brand portfolio as part of our growing pipeline of proprietary crop protection and biological products.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Grain Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CST

USDA Monthly Chicken and Eggs Report at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

A clipper is moving through eastern Canada on Monday. Some showers are scraping through the northern Great Lakes. Another disturbance is moving through the Northern Plains with some breezy winds and light showers of its own, but most of the country is warm and dry to start the week.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Export Sales Report at 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. Existing Home Sales at 9 a.m. CST

Mato Grosso (Brazil) Institute of Agricultural Economics Weekly crop progress report at 1:00 p.m. CST

USDA Cattle on Feed report at 2 p.m. CST

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report at 2:30 p.m. CST

Weather

Cold air that has been spreading through the country this week is shifting eastward. Areas in the Plains are seeing temperatures rise Friday morning and that trend will continue eastward through the weekend. Limited areas of showers around the Great Lakes and Colorado are active Friday.

Ranking Members of Ag Committees Want Answers

The Ranking Members of the Senate and House Agriculture Committees are pressing the Trump administration for answers on international food aid disruptions. Senator Amy Klobuchar and Representative Angie Craig, both Minnesota Democrats, asked for an explanation following a stop-work order that halted the delivery and distribution of hundreds of millions of metric tons of American-grown food aid, which could impact American farmers and U.S. agricultural markets. In a letter to Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins, they said, “We received reports of American-grown commodities sitting in storage without the ability to monitor whether this aid will get to the more than 75,000 children who would have otherwise received school meals.” They also said with Food for Progress, buyers in other countries have bought U.S. commodities but haven’t received them due to this pause. “It’s our understanding that this also encompasses hundreds of thousands of tons of U.S. wheat, rice, and soy,” they added.

Boosting Ethanol Can Avert a Farm Crisis

In an annual address on the state of the industry, Renewable Fuels President and CEO Geoff (Jeff) Cooper highlighted the ethanol industry’s pivotal role in American agriculture. He also outlined how ethanol can again help the farm sector thrive in the face of current economic challenges if the right actions are taken by Congress. Speaking at the RFA’s 30th Annual National Ethanol Conference, Cooper’s report not only reflected on the industry’s history but also looked toward the future under the leadership of President Trump and a new Congress. “From the early days of ‘gasohol’ during the Carter administration to the transformative passage of the Renewable Fuel Standard in 2005, the ethanol industry has evolved into a cornerstone of energy security and agricultural prosperity,” Cooper said. “The success of ethanol has had a profound impact on American consumers and farmers alike, lowering pump prices, enhancing energy independence, and bolstering rural communities.”

No Ban Coming After New Case of Mexican Screwworm

Another case of New World screwworm was found in a Mexican cow south of the border. Despite that, USDA says it won’t limit cattle imports from Mexico. Reuters says U.S. cattle supplies in recent months grew tight after Washington blocked Mexican livestock shipments into the U.S. in late November due to the screwworm. The World Organization for Animal Health says the disease was found in a cow located in the Mexican state of Tabasco. The pest can infect wildlife, cattle, and in rare cases, people. Maggots from the screwworm flies burrow into the skin of living animals, causing serious and often fatal damage. USDA says the comprehensive pre-clearance inspection and treatment protocol will help cattle and bison move safely from Mexico into the United States. America's cattle supplies are at their lowest levels in more than 70 years, and beef prices are high because ranchers slashed production due to drought.

Weekly Corn Inspections for Export Rise

Data from the USDA shows inspections of corn for export rose last week while soybean and wheat assessments declined during the week ending on February 13. Weekly corn inspections totaled 1.61 million metric tons. The agency said that’s up from 1.36 million tons a week earlier and the 1.05 million tons examined at the same time last year. Soybean assessments dropped to 720,332 metric tons, well below the 1.1 million tons inspected during the prior week and 1.29 million tons at the same time in 2024. Wheat examinations for delivery were lower at 249,812 metric tons versus 570,300 tons the previous week and the 420,268 inspected in 2024. Since the start of the marketing year, USDA has inspected 24.7 million metric tons of corn for export, 36 million tons of soybeans, and 14.8 million tons of wheat. The corn, soybean, and wheat inspection totals are all higher than they were last year.

EU Exploring Import Restrictions Which Might Include Soy

The European Union wants to block imports of particular foodstuffs made to different standards to protect its farmers, which is similar to President Trump’s reciprocal trade policy. The Financial Times says the EU Commission will look into the possibility of greater import limits, which is a move that would raise tensions between the trading partners. Early reports say the targets could include U.S. soybeans, which are grown using pesticides that EU farmers are not allowed to use. The EU’s Health Commissioner says that leaders have “very clear signals from the parliament, very clear signals from member states, and our farmers, which says whatever is banned in the EU, it should stay that way, even if it’s an imported product.” These latest moves could bring pushback from Donald Trump, who repeatedly has accused the EU of treating the U.S. farmer unfairly, and he shrugged at the EU’s pushback.

U.S. Soy Announces NEXTILE Challenge Winners

The next wave of sustainable fashion is soy-based textiles, which are on the rise. To spur innovation in that space, U.S. Soy announced Clara Padgham (PADJ-hum) from the University of Wisconsin as the national winner of the NEXTILE: The Soy in Textile Design Challenge. In its second year, the NEXTILE competition is designed to highlight the creativity and originality of students studying design by encouraging the use of sustainable textiles, namely soy-based products. Padgham’s winning design is a women’s textile bucket hat that utilizes a number of soy-based components, including silk yarn. As the competition winner, Padgham will get a $1,000 scholarship. This year’s competitors were provided with a soy-based product design kit, which included soy silk, soy cashmere, organic pigment, soy wax, and other soy products. “The students showed their creativity and innovation,” said Carla Schultz, a Michigan farmer who also served as a judge during the competition.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CST

EIA Petroleum Status Report including ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CST

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange Weekly Argentina Crop Conditions Update at 12 p.m. CST

USDA Livestock Slaughter Reports at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

Thursday is very cold across a large majority of the country east of the Rockies. However, the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies have seen significant rises in temperatures over where they were just Wednesday with that trend continuing and spreading into the weekend. Some light snow is occurring around the Great Lakes and Appalachians.

Legislation Would Allow Year-Round E15 Sale

Senators Chuck Grassley and Deb Fischer of Iowa, both Senate Ag Committee members, reintroduced the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025. The legislation is currently the only permanent, nationwide solution to unleash the power of E15, which would fulfill the White House mandate for energy independence. The legislation would end years of patchwork regulations and provide certainty for producers and consumers. “E15 is good for consumers, the environment, and our national security,” Grassley said. “Authorizing the year-round, nationwide sale of E15 is common sense, and it will help cut prices at the pump, create jobs in rural America, and restore America’s energy dominance.” Monte Shaw, executive director of the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association, says, “As farm income has plummeted, year-round E15 represents the single biggest way to build demand for corn in the near term. “Rural America is done waiting, and the time for E15 is now.”

Administration Moving Away from Depopulation for Bird Flu

The Trump administration is preparing to move away from depopulating entire flocks infected by bird flu. The focus will instead be on biosecurity and medication to contain the outbreaks. Reuters reported last week that the USDA has given conditional approval to Zoetis (zoh-EH-tis) to use its bird flu vaccine in poultry. Zoetis, which deals with vaccines, medicines, and diagnostics for animals, said the conditional license was granted based on safety and a reasonable expectation of efficacy. A conditional approval, also called a conditional license, is used for emergencies, limited market availability, or other special circumstances and is only issued for a certain period. Last month, USDA committed to rebuilding a stockpile of bird flu vaccines for poultry that match the strain of virus circulating in commercial flocks and wild birds. Moderna is developing a bird flu vaccine for humans and received a large government grant for its advancement.

Caucus Members Want Assurances Regarding Chicken Exports

The co-chairs of the Congressional and Senate Chicken Caucuses wrote the USDA to seek assurances to protect America’s chicken exports should vaccination be contemplated as part of a strategy to combat HPAI. With the recent attention around increased egg prices due to HPAI, there have been renewed conversations about whether the U.S. should vaccinate commercial poultry flocks against the virus. “There should be a very clear distinction between all ‘poultry’ to protect America’s family farmers and global trading relationships,” they wrote. “To be clear, vaccination in any poultry sector, including egg layers, turkeys, broilers, or ducks, will jeopardize the entire export market for all U.S. poultry products.” The letter points out that broilers, or chickens raised for meat, are an entirely separate industry from the egg-laying sector. More than 77 percent have been commercial egg-laying hens, 12 percent of commercial turkeys, and eight percent of commercial broilers have been infected.

U.S. Soybean Farmers See Checkoff’s Impact for Themselves

Ten young U.S. farmers currently working in production agriculture journeyed to Honduras and Guatemala during a United Soybean Board “See for Yourself” mission trip. The group looked in-depth at the soy checkoff’s investments in international market growth. With about 60 percent of the U.S. soybean crop exported, in addition to value-added poultry and meat products traveling overseas, these next-generation U.S. farmers experienced the global impact of U.S. soybeans. “With these U.S. soybean farmers across several states contributing to the soy checkoff, this mission allowed them to see firsthand how their investments grow export markets,” says Phillip Good, USB Chair and Mississippi farmer. “They also got a better understanding of how the ports and infrastructure affect U.S. soy products internationally, and the importance of the Panama Canal was critical to the discussion. Guatemala is the 15th-largest market for U.S. ag exports, and Honduras gets most of its soybean meal from the U.S.

NCBA Fighting for Death Tax Relief

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association strongly supports the Death Tax Repeal Act, led by Representatives Randy Feenstra (IA) and Sanford Bishop (GA). Repealing the federal estate tax, also known as the death tax, is NCBA’s top priority. NCBA President and Nebraska cattle producer Buck Wehrbein says the death tax isn’t pro-growth, but instead, it’s a death warrant for family businesses. “It’s the top threat to the future of family farms and ranches in the U.S., and cattle producers need relief from this insidious tax,” he said. “Family-owned farms and ranches operate with limited cash flow, with most of their value tied up in assets like land.” As farmland and pastureland values rise, more producers will be hit with this punitive tax, forcing them to sell assets or take on debt. “This is not a tax on the rich,” Wehrbein added, “it’s a boot to the neck of family businesses.”

Update on Port Negotiations

On February 7, the International Longshoremen Association’s Wage Scale Committee unanimously approved a new six-year contract between the ILA and the U.S. Maritime Alliance. The next step is a ratification vote on February 25 by the ILA rank-and-file membership. Assuming the ILA rank-and-file approves the contract on February 25, the final step will be for the Maritime Alliance to vote on the proposed contract. “It’s therefore likely that the new contract will be finalized by the end of February or early March,” says Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition. “If approved, the contract and all its benefits will be retroactive to October 1, 2024, and will be in effect until September 30, 2030.” Over 200 ILA Wage Scale Committee members met on February 7 in Hollywood, Florida, to discuss and approve the contract. “We welcome the news that they’re about to approve a six-year contract,” Steenhoek added.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Housing Starts at 7:30 a.m. CST

ERS Food Expenditure Series at 9 a.m. CST

U.S. FOMC Minutes from January meeting at 1 p.m. CST

Weather

A storm system is cruising through the southeastern quadrant of the country on Wednesday, bringing a mix of rain and snow. Some light snow trails behind it across the Central Plains early in the morning and will push eastward into the Midwest later today. Very cold air remains in place across the Plains and Upper Midwest, spreading to the Southeast behind the system.

Brazil Says U.S. Ethanol Tariff Would Be Unreasonable

Brazil’s Energy and Mining Minister Alexandre Silveira said on Thursday that a potential U.S. tariff on Brazilian ethanol would be unreasonable, emphasizing that the two countries have historically negotiated ethanol and sugar trade together. His remarks came after President Donald Trump moved to scrap decades-old low tariff rates, raising them to match those of other countries. A White House fact sheet on the plan pointed to Brazil’s ethanol tariffs as an example of unfair trade practices. The U.S. tariff on ethanol is a mere 2.5%, yet Brazil charges U.S. ethanol exports an 18% tariff. As a result, in 2024, the U.S. imported over $200 million in ethanol from Brazil while exporting only $52 million in ethanol to Brazil, the document said on Thursday. 

U.S. Bird Flu Response Disrupted in Early Weeks of Trump Administration

The Trump administration has disrupted the U.S. response to bird flu as the outbreak worsens, leading to confusion and concern among federal staff, state officials, veterinarians, and health experts. Since President Donald Trump took office on January 20, two federal agencies responsible for monitoring and responding to the epidemic have withheld bird flu reports and canceled congressional briefings and meetings with state health officials. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) withheld two weekly reports, one on bird flu transmission and another on surveillance, and canceled several meetings on bird flu with state officials. The CDC and U.S. Department of Agriculture held no congressional briefings for three weeks, and the USDA did not respond to a state official’s request for information on a new program to protect the nation’s food supply.  The result has been anxiety among federal health staff that critical information about bird flu will not be disseminated in a timely manner or at all, even as more people and livestock test positive for the virus.

The ‘Billion-Dollar Pest’ Reappears in Canada, Connecticut

In 2018, farmers in Nova Scotia, Canada, noticed a pest they hadn’t seen in a long time — the European corn borer. The pest was introduced to the United States in 1917 and spread to most major corn-growing regions by the 1940s. Coined “the billion-dollar pest,” the European corn borer caused yield loss by burrowing into cornstalks and feeding on them until the introduction of Bt corn in 1996. The main indicator of the borer is a horizontal line of shot holes in the corn leaves. The discovery in Nova Scotia led researchers to investigate throughout Canada, where they continued to find the same Cry1F resistance in the borer as they found in Nova Scotia. Cry1F is the crystalline protein used in Bt corn that keeps larvae at bay. “In the years from 2018–2023, researchers started to make collections all across Canada and they were finding European corn borer resistance to Cry1F toxins all across the board.

Farmers Still Caught in USDA Funding Freeze

USDA is withholding funds from farmers for conservation programs, despite the White House stating last week that funds to individuals would not be frozen. Contractors for conservation programs also have been affected by a funding freeze. The Iowa Soybean Association, for instance, cited in a letter to lawmakers that $11 million owed to farmers is at risk. Farmers are learning their conservation payments are frozen because those contracts were funded through the Inflation Reduction Act. Two federal judges over the past week have ruled that the Trump administration did not have authority to block funding that was appropriated by Congress.  Repeated efforts to question USDA over which programs are frozen and questioned why payments to individual farmers were frozen. USDA's press office did not respond. Officials with the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) also did not respond. At least one Missouri producer posted videos on TikTok worried he could lose his farm because USDA "reneged" on his cost-share contract with NRCS under the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP).

Soybean Research Projects Shutting Down as USAID Funding Cut Off

A major soybean research project, which collaborates with the University of Missouri (MU), will shut down April 15 due to President Donald Trump's dismantling of funding to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). The Soybean Innovation Lab, based at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, was formed in 2011 to provide researchers and organizations with the resources needed to advance soybean development. The lab is comprised of over 100 technical soybean experts from 24 countries, each representing a variety of institutions. The land-grant system will lose 19 innovation labs across 17 states, including Missouri. MU has been involved in the Soybean Innovation Lab since 2013, said Kerry Clark, an MU researcher who leads the mechanization division for the lab. Clark said MU's sector of the Soybean Innovation Lab research received $1.2 million, or about $150,000 annually, before losing funding.

Little Snow Leaves Nearly All of Nebraska Facing Drought Conditions

Snowfall has been sparse across Nebraska this winter, but a cattleman said the lack of snow has made for “beautiful cattle feeding” conditions. Craig Uden, a fourth-generation cattleman and part-owner of Darr Feedlot in central Nebraska, said there have only been about six inches of snow all winter long. Despite the lack of snow, Uden said the weather has been “wonderful for cattle feeding conditions.” A lot of Uden’s cattle have been able to stay in the corn fields as a result of “so many 50–60 degree days. It’s actually been a tremendously easy year to winter cows,” according to Uden. The concern of being able to find grass increases the stress of keeping additional heifers. According to the latest drought monitor map, less than 1% of Nebraska is free from drought stress. Eight percent of the state is abnormally dry, 44% is in D1 moderate drought, 40% is in D2 severe drought, and the remaining 8% is in D3 extreme drought.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Housing Market Index at 9 a.m. CST

U.S. Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CST

ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, Feb 2025 at 2 p.m. CST

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2034 at 2 p.m. CST

USDA Annual Chicken and Eggs Report at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

A storm system in the Plains is producing snow for early Tuesday. The system will build as it works across the Delta region later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some areas of heavy snow are forecast on the system's northern edge from Kansas and northern Oklahoma east through the Tennessee Valley. Very cold air is socked in to the north and west behind the system, leading to dangerously cold conditions in the Plains and Upper Midwest.

Rollins Confirmed as Ag Secretary

Brooke Rollins won confirmation as the new Secretary of Agriculture by a 72-28 Senate vote. Several U.S. agriculture groups congratulated the Texan on her confirmation. “America’s pork producers are eager to work with Secretary Rollins to fix the multitude of problems caused by California’s Prop 12 and ensure farm families have reasonable policies to pass down our farms to future generations,” says NPPC President Lori Stevermer. Farm Credit Council President and CEO Christy Seyfert says it’s crucial to have leaders who understand the unique needs of agriculture, and they look forward to working with Rollins in good times and bad. NASDA CEO Ted McKinney congratulated Rollins on taking over as the 33rd Secretary of Agriculture, saying, “The National Association of State Departments of Agriculture is ready to work with the new Secretary on increasing economic opportunities for farmers, ranchers, and food producers, as well as getting a new farm bill approved.”

The Food Price Index Moves Higher in January

The Food Price Index increased 0.4 percent in January. The food at home index rose 0.5 percent over the month as four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased. The indexes for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 1.9 percent over the month, as the index for eggs led the way by rising 15.2 percent. This was the largest increase in the eggs index since June 2015 and accounted for about two-thirds of the total monthly food-at-home increase. The Bureau of Labor Statistics says the fruits and vegetables index fell 0.5 percent in January. The cereals and bakery products index decreased 0.4 percent over the month as the breakfast cereal index fell 3.3 percent. The food away from home index rose 0.2 percent in January. The index for limited-service meals rose 0.3 percent over the month, and the index for full-service meals rose 0.1 percent.

Milk Producers Applaud Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act

The National Milk Producers Federation applauds the bipartisan Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act to help increase kids’ access to milk’s vital nutrients. The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee reaffirmed in its Scientific Report last December that most kids and adolescents are not meeting daily dairy intake recommendations,” says NMPF President and CEO Gregg Doud. “Good nutrition is the cornerstone of children’s health and development, and milk plays an unparalleled role in providing the nutrients kids need to grow and thrive.” He also points out that kids drink more and more milk in schools when they have nutrient-dense options they like. “A growing body of evidence shows dairy foods at all fat levels have a neutral or positive effect on health outcomes ranging from lower obesity rates and diabetes to reduced heart disease risk and healthy cholesterol levels,” Doud added. The House Education and Workforce Committee approved the Act.

Wheat Groups Support USDA Administration of Food for Peace

U.S. Wheat Associates and the National Association of Wheat Growers welcomed new legislation that would move the Food for Peace international food assistance program under the USDA’s administration. “U.S. Wheat has long been proud of the role America’s farmers play in feeding hungry populations around the world,” says USW President Vince Peterson. “Realigning administration of Food for Peace, our flagship global hunger program, to USDA makes perfect sense and ensures that the agency most closely connected with food is equipped to deliver wholesome food from American farmers to those who need it.” NAWG CEO Chandler Goule says his group welcomes the legislation that supports American farmers while working to address hunger around the world. “Each year, the Food for Peace program buys more than one million metric tons of food, including wheat, to feed millions of starving people,” Goule says. “The program will feed people more efficiently and effectively this way.”

Iowa Senators Work Protect Higher Education Access for Farm Families

Republican Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst of Iowa joined Democrat Michael Bennet of Colorado in introducing bipartisan legislation protecting farm families’ access to higher education. The Family Farm and Small Business Exemption Act would amend the FAFSA Simplification Act to restore the original exemption of non-liquid, farm, and small business assets when determining a family’s FAFSA eligibility. “Farm assets can’t be cashed out in the same way traditional investments can,” Grassley said. “Last Congress, I worked with the Department of Education to ensure the FAFSA asset test is only applied to investment farms, not family farms.” Ernst added that no one should have to sell their farm or small business to afford college. “As a farm kid, I know the enormous impacts grants and financial aid have on rural students’ decisions to go to college,” Ernst said. “We’re fighting for farm families, so unfair policies don’t hold them back.”

Apply for a Spot at the Global Sheep Forum

If you’re a passionate sheep producer looking to expand your horizons, the American Lamb Board and the American Sheep Industry Association have an exciting opportunity. The ASI’s Young & Emerging Entrepreneurs Committee presents an exciting opportunity to participate in the Global Sheep Forum’s Young Leaders Program, which takes place during LambEx, the world’s premier event for sheep, lamb, and wool education in Australia in August 2026. This unique program aims to connect young producers and leaders from around the globe, fostering the exchange of ideas and networking opportunities. You’ll also get valuable insights into the innovations and technologies shaping the sheep industry. Among the eligibility criteria, producers are encouraged to be an existing active member of ASI and an ALB contributor. As part of the program, selected participants will be asked to engage in several education and leadership programs through 2025 and 2026. Applications are open until April 15 at lambboard.com.

Another Agriculture Group Takes Issue with Dietary Guidelines Report

The National Chicken Council urged the Department of Health and Human Services to reject recommendations from the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee emphasizing plant-based proteins over lean meats like chicken. Among the recommendations that the NCC took issue with was the emphasis on eating beans, peas, and lentils as optimal protein sources above chicken. There was no specific mention that lean meat, like chicken, can be part of a healthy dietary pattern. “We believe these recommendations and omissions are harmful to the human health of all Americans, especially those relying on federal feeding programs,” says Dr. Ashley Peterson, NCC senior vice president of scientific and regulatory affairs. “The committee also provided no scientific fact or justification to support why protein subgroups need to be reordered to deemphasize lean meats, like chicken.” NCC also says plant proteins are not nutritionally equivalent at all to animal proteins from a protein quality and quantity standpoint.

National FFA Officers Visit Japan

The 2024-2025 National FFA Officer Team returned from the National FFA Officers International Experience Program in Japan. The Officers had a chance to experience Japanese culture and agriculture in partnership with the sister organization Future Farmers of Japan. This annual trip provides these young people the chance to experience firsthand how agriculture transcends geographical boundaries and strengthens a partnership that dates back to 1950. The International Experience Program develops the national officers’ language skills, business practices, and communication techniques to build cross-cultural cooperation while providing an opportunity for them to practice peer leadership on an international scale. “As I travel the country and world as a part of National FFA, I’m consistently reminded that agriculture is a common thread that brings us all together,” says Caroline Groth, Eastern Region Vice President. “We have more in common than we have differences, and we’re working to make our communities and world better.”

Enhanced Coverage Option for 2025 a Better Choice

The University of Illinois’ Farmdoc Daily says some farmers should possibly consider the Enhanced Coverage Option in 2025 as premium costs will be lower this year. The ECO is a crop-insurance product where farmers have the option to insure at either a 90 percent or 95 percent coverage level. One important fact about the ECO is that, unlike SCO, ECO does not restrict the choice of commodity title program. Farmers can’t purchase SCO coverage on acres enrolled in the Agriculture Risk Coverage commodity program, but in contrast, ECO can be used even if ARC is selected as the commodity title choice. The Risk Management Agency has increased the premium subsidy rate for ECO to 65 percent for 2025 and future years. Farmers may wish to consider ECO because its premium will be lower than last year, and revenue protection will likely cover less of the 2025 cost of production.

Texas Farm Field Lack Water, Get Plowed Under

South Texas was once home to the farmer-owned Rio Grande Valley Sugar Growers cooperative. It was comprised of more than 100 family farmers growing sugarcane and the raw sugar mill in Santa Rosa.  The American Sugar Alliance says due to Mexico’s failure to deliver the water it owes the United States under the 1944 Water Treaty, the mill is now shuttered, and the few remaining acres of sugarcane were plowed under. Nearly 40,000 acres of sugarcane once grew in the Rio Grande Valley, fueling the sugar mill and providing approximately 500 jobs critical to the surrounding rural communities. With irrigation water supplies at critical levels and with little water coming from Mexico, growers were forced to make the hard decision to plow under their sugarcane. In early 2023, farmers planted 34,000 acres and were down to 10,000 acres in early 2024. Now, zero acres are getting planted in the valley.

Farmers for Free Trade Comment on Section 232 Tariffs

Brian Kuehl (KEEL), executive director of Farmers for Free Trade, the nation’s leading coalition of American ag and food producers that depend on trade and exports, reacted to the imposition of Section 232 tariffs. “Recent history shows that indiscriminate 232 tariffs trigger harsh retaliation against U.S. farmers and food producers,” Kuehl says. “In 2018, targeted countries responded with tariffs on uniquely American agricultural products, everything from soybeans and pork to bourbon.” Farmers for Free Trade says when these American products get saddled with onerous tariffs, it directly hurts American farmers, ranchers, and food manufacturers – American businesses that depend on exports to survive. “Rather than strengthening American industry, these tariffs make it harder to sell the very products the world wants from us,” Kuehl adds. “If we truly want to grow our economy and support Americans that are producing right here at home, we need to expand exports, not make them a target.”

NCGA Hires a New Director of Biofuels

The National Corn Growers Association announced Lane Howard has joined the staff as director of biofuels. “Ethanol is one of our marquee issues and is important to rural economies,” says Sean Arians, vice president of sustainable production and value chain engagement at NCGA. With close to ten years of experience handling agricultural issues, Howard most recently managed the market development portfolio for the Missouri Corn Merchandising Council and Missouri Corn Growers Association. In that role, he oversaw issues related to all corn use and demand growth, including biofuels, livestock, trade, new uses, research, and developing industry relationships. Howard also has experience on the national level, serving on various NCGA action teams and participating in monthly working group meetings for ethanol, new uses, and animal agriculture. He also played a key role in NCGA’s recent strategic planning process and served as a content area expert for the organization’s staff and state colleagues.

Friday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Retail Sales 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. Industrial production and capacity at 8:15 a.m. CST

Mato Grosso Institute of Ag Economics Crop Reports at 1 p.m. CST

CFTC Commitments of Traders Report at 2:30 p.m. CST

Weather

A stronger system will drop out of the Rockies and enter the Plains later Friday. Ahead of the system, widespread snow showers are expected to develop across the Midwest, especially through the afternoon and evening. Farther south, a few spotty rain showers are possible across the Mississippi Delta.

Dietary Guidelines Recommendations Bad for Public Health

The National Pork Producers Council expressed serious concerns about the 2025 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee’s so-called “scientific” report in comments to the Department of Health and Human Services. “While pork producers are committed to supporting human health and nutrition with safe, wholesome, and nutritious protein, the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee’s recommendations do not,” says Rob Brenneman, NPPC Vice President and a pork producer from Washington, Iowa. “Our nation’s health is at risk as these Guidelines inform all federal nutrition programs, including those affecting the military and schoolchildren, and provide recommendations to health professionals.” The Committee’s most egregious “scientific” recommendations include replacing red meat with plant-based proteins, which would lead to several, significant nutrient gaps and deficiencies. This move will especially put at-risk infants, young children, adolescent girls, pregnant and lactating women, and older adults, as they require higher amounts of protein and nutrients that are provided by animal-based proteins.

World Ag Expo Underway in California

The World Ag Expo is underway today and runs through Thursday in Tulare, California. The World Ag Expo, established in 1968, had more than 100,000 visitors come from 49 states and 81 countries to attend last year’s show. The show is produced by the International Agri-Center, an education-based non-profit organization. New for 2025, there will be a lot of movement on the grounds this year with expanded live demonstrations. That movement includes the Western State Beefmasters Breeders Association Live Cattle Auction. World Ag Expo has over 2.6 million square feet of exhibit space, which is the equivalent of 45 football fields. The International Agri-Center owns nearly 700 acres. Outside of the show grounds and parking lots, the remaining 400-plus acres get farmed, with crops including cotton and almonds. The World Ag Expo also gives back by providing the opportunity to fundraise by managing more than 30 food booths at the show.

Nebraska Cattlemen Becomes New NCBA President

Buck Wehrbein, a Nebraska cattleman, took over the role of NCBA president during CattleCon 2025 in San Antonio, Texas. Wehrbein has a 45-year career in the cattle feeding sector, so he brings decades of dedication to the industry and leadership experience to NCBA’s top post. He sees both challenges and opportunities ahead, but he’s confident that NCBA’s unifying presence will remain critical to addressing key issues facing farmers and ranchers. He’s particularly passionate about fostering opportunity for the next generation of producers, recognizing their ability to drive innovation and industry progress. “They’re ahead of where we were in my time,” he noted. “They understand the issues and are ready to make a difference.” Wehrbein’s focus during his time as president is to advocate for profit opportunities while strengthening the freedom to operate. “The overarching principle and aim of NCBA is to make things better for our members,” he said.

SAF Coalition Talks About Boosting U.S. Energy Dominance

Alison Graab, Executive Director of the SAF Coalition, highlighted the opportunity for the new Administration to boost U.S. energy dominance through supportive Sustainable Aviation Fuel policies. She said America is well-positioned to be a global leader in SAF, leveraging America’s agricultural abundance, bioenergy expertise, and entrepreneurial spirit to create an alternative jet fuel. “Extending and improving tax credits for SAF production is essential,” Graab says. “Investors and energy producers need long-term policy certainty to commit to building facilities and scaling operations.” It’s also important to embrace all potential feedstocks as American innovators have developed ways to produce SAF from diverse sources, including crops, waste, biomass, captured gases, and cooking oil. Graab would also like to see red tape get cut as streamlining permitting processes and providing clear regulatory guidance can accelerate SAF production. “The Administration talks of ‘energy dominance,’ and SAF is a natural extension of that vision,” Graab adds.

AARP Supports AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act

AARP has voiced its strong support for the AM Radio in Every Vehicle Act, urging Congress to swiftly pass the bipartisan legislation to protect the most vulnerable during emergencies. Bill Sweeney, AARP’s Senior Vice President of Government Affairs, sent a letter to lawmakers emphasizing AM radio’s critical role in emergency communications and its significance for older Americans. “Older adults are over-represented in rural areas where wireless and broadband connections are limited or non-existent,” Sweeney wrote. “AM radio connects millions of older residents to their communities through targeted programming, including the latest local news and weather.” Citing a 2023 letter from seven former FEMA Administrators, AARP also pointed to AM radio as a big part of the National Public Warning System. Seventy-seven AM stations are Primary Entry Points, equipped with backup generators and emergency communication equipment, ensuring uninterrupted broadcasts reaching more than 90 percent of the U.S. population during disasters.

February WASDE Neutral for U.S. Corn, Beans, and Wheat

The USDA’s February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report says the 2024-2025 U.S. corn supply and use outlook is unchanged from last month. The biggest change took place in global corn production, which is forecast to drop 1.8 million tons to 1.492 billion. Foreign corn production is forecast down due to production declines in Brazil and Argentina. The projected season-average farm price is up 10 cents to $4.35 a bushel. U.S. soybean supply and use forecasts are also unchanged. Global numbers also took center stage in soybeans, with the global supply forecast to drop because of reduced production in Argentina and Paraguay because of persistent heat and dryness in January. The season-average soybean price is projected at $10.10 a bushel, down ten cents. The U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is for slightly higher domestic use and lower ending stocks. The season-average wheat price is unchanged at $5.55 a bushel.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Consumer Price Index at 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. EIA Petroleum Status Report including ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CST

ERS Reports including wheat data and seasonal prices at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

A strong system will exit the Central Plains through Wednesday afternoon and spread across the Midwest, providing widespread snow across Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. On the southern side of this system, areas of heavy rain are forecast across the Mississippi Delta and Southeast; some swaths of rain could exceed 3-4 inches over 24 hours.

USDA Freezes Conservation, Farmer Payments

The USDA has frozen some funding for farmers as it goes through a sweeping review, despite assurances from the Trump administration that programs helping farmers wouldn’t be affected during the government overhaul. Reuters says the impact has been wide-ranging, from cash assistance for ranchers to fixing cattle watering systems to help for corn growers wanting to plant cover crops that curb wind erosion. The freeze adds even more economic uncertainty for farmers already struggling after consecutive years of incomes dragged down by low crop prices. Bloomberg says the American Soybean Association has been notified by growers that payments associated with the Climate-Smart Commodities Program have been suspended. The ASA stressed to the USDA that it should honor the contractual agreement it made with farmers. Senate Ag Committee Democrats joined Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar in sending a letter to USDA requesting information on actions taken by USDA to pause these payments.

U.S. Pork Exports Record-Large in 2024

U.S. pork exports eclipsed previous highs in both volume and value in 2024. December pork exports totaled 267,132 metric tons, slightly below last year’s large volume, while value increased one percent to $771.8 million. The results pushed 2024 volume to 3.03 million tons, up four percent from the previous year and topped the previous high set in 2020. Export value totaled $8.63 billion, six percent above 2023’s record. Pork export efforts delivered a value of $66 per head of slaughtered pork. December beef exports reached 119,171 million tons, 1.5 percent higher than the prior year, while value rose four percent to $897.6 million. Full-year beef exports were 1.29 million tons, down 0.5 percent, while value increased five percent to $10.45 billion. Market diversification delivered a value of $415 per fed head slaughtered for beef. USDA also says lamb exports trended higher than the previous year in both volume and value.

Clean Fuels Appreciates Letter to New EPA Chief

Clean Fuels Alliance America thanked 28 members of Congress who sent a letter to Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin. The lawmakers’ letter urged Zeldin to put the Renewable Fuel Standard back on track and provide a path for the growth of the U.S. biofuel industry. The letter specifically requests that the EPA set timely, robust volumes for 2026 and beyond in the “Set 2” rule; to reject the abuse of small refinery exemptions; and avoid proposals that retroactively lower set volumes or erode demand. “Steady growth in U.S. biofuel production means more American fuel in the marketplace and lower prices at the pump for hardworking families who have spent years suffering under high inflation,” the Congressional Biofuels Caucus wrote in the letter. “Rural communities are counting on you to maintain this trajectory by providing stable, predictable growth in U.S. biofuel targets and preserving the integrity of the RFS.”

Farmers Union Supports American Beef Labeling Act

National Farmers Union announced its support of the American Beef Labeling Act, which was introduced by Senators John Thune (R-SD) and Cory Booker (D-NJ). The legislation will codify mandatory country-of-origin labeling, or MCOOL, for beef sold in the U.S., distinguishing American-produced products in grocery stores. They urge additional co-sponsors to endorse the bill and support its swift passage. “America’s family farmers and ranchers produce the best agricultural products in the world, and consumers have the right to know where their products come from,” says NFU President Rob Larew. Specifically, the ABLA will give American farmers and ranchers more power in production and marketing by including package labeling indicating that their product was born, raised, slaughtered, and packaged entirely in the U.S. This will allow small and mid-sized producers to occupy a larger market share and receive a greater share of the American consumer’s food dollar, creating a more competitive marketplace.

NCBA Sets 2025 Policy Priorities

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association set the organization’s 2025 policy priorities at CattleCon 2025. The focus will be on engaging with the Trump administration and Congress to expand opportunities for producer profitability. “NCBA will advocate for passage of a long-term farm bill and push to extend the critical tax provisions in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that expire at the end of the year,” says new NCBA President and Nebraska cattleman Buck Wehrbein. “Over the past few years, producers have been increasingly squeezed by onerous regulatory burdens, including unscientific Endangered Species Act listings and the rapidly changing enforcement of the Corporate Transparency Act.” He also says government overreach has prevented meaningful conservation efforts, leaving America’s natural resources in worse conditions and cattle producers in a position of significant uncertainty with soaring legal and accounting bills. The priorities include retaining the wins in the 2004 House Ag Committee’s farm bill.

February is Lamb Lovers Month

For more than ten years, the American Lamb Board has celebrated February as Lamb Lovers Month, the perfect time to enjoy delicious American lamb. With Valentine’s Day approaching, ALB is serving up inspiration for romantic, cozy meals at home. The American Lamb website is packed with mouth-watering recipes, from heart-shaped lamb dishes to elegant wine pairings and even unexpected yet delightful lamb and chocolate combinations. Whether you are planning a special date night or just want to try something new, there’s something for every lamb lover. ALB is teaming up again with the Lambassador Network to spread the love for American lamb all over social media. Throughout the month, Lambassadors will share their favorite recipes and give followers a chance to win an American Lamb prize pack. There will also be a live cooking class on February 13 with Chef Joel, when he’ll cook Cherry-Braised Lamb Shanks.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report at 11 a.m. CST

NASS Crop Production Report at 11 a.m. CST

FAS World Markets and Trade Reports at 11:15 a.m. CST

Weather

A large system will move across the Southeast Plains, Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic Tuesday. A wintry mix of precipitation and snow will mainly favor the Mid-Atlantic and far southern areas of the Eastern Midwest while rain remains farther south. Parts of Virginia could see over six inches of snow with this system.

Mexico Repeals Ban on US Biotech Corn Imports Following USMCA Dispute Loss

The Mexican government on Thursday repealed its ban on genetically modified corn imports from the U.S. after losing an arbitration ruling under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, in December 2024. In a statement, USDA commended Mexico's action, saying it  safeguards approximately $5.6 billion in U.S. corn exports to Mexico. USDA, in coordination with USTR, will continue to monitor Mexico's compliance with its USMCA commitments. USDA added, "The Trump Administration will continue to stand up for U.S. farmers and producers, including tackling countries' unjustified barriers to products of agricultural biotechnology." The U.S. exported $5.6 billion of corn to Mexico in 2024, which is the largest export market for U.S. corn. In the 2023-2024 season, the U.S. exported a record 24.5 million tons of corn to Mexico, according to the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service.

New York Live Poultry Markets Shuttered Due to Bird Flu

All live poultry markets in New York City and Westchester, Nassau and Suffolk counties of New York were shut down Friday after seven cases of avian flu were detected at markets in the five boroughs during routine inspections, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said during a public health briefing. The closure is in effect through at least Feb. 14. During that time, no poultry can be delivered and healthy birds must be sold, Hochul said. Markets must disinfect, remain closed for five days and undergo state inspection before reopening. The governor said the shutdown was out of an abundance of caution. The state reports no cases of bird flu in humans. Avian flu is on the rise around the country, mostly impacting animals. But 66 humans contracted in the virus in the U.S. in 2024 and one person died, according to the New York State Department of Health.

China targets US Farm Equipment with Latest Tariffs

Agricultural and farm machinery manufacturers could soon be affected by retaliatory tariffs from China after President Donald Trump’s levies took last Tuesday. Trump ordered 10% higher tariffs on imports from China and threatened Canada and Mexico with duties that were later delayed. After the president’s tariffs on Chinese goods took effect, the country struck back with its own 10% tariffs on U.S. goods, including agricultural machinery, which take effect Feb. 10. More than 50 U.S. farm and gardening products such as mowers, egg sorting machines, sugarcane harvesters and combines were listed as subject to tariffs, according to China’s Ministry of Finance. Several types of tractors, sprayers and planters were also included on the list. China’s tariffs come as Deere & Co, CNH and other farm equipment makers struggle with sluggish demand. After peaking in 2022, farmer incomes have drastically declined in response to lower corn and grain prices, leaving little to no room for heavy equipment upgrades.

Former Express Grain CEO Sentenced

The former CEO of Greenwood, Mississippi-based Express Grain has been sentenced to 10 years in prison and ordered to immediately pay $69.8 million in restitution after pleading guilty to one count of wire fraud while working for the company. John R. Coleman was sentenced in the U.S. District Court for the District of Northern Mississippi on Jan. 30, 2025. As part of the judgement, the court released a list of 152 farmers and institutions to whom Coleman is ordered to pay restitution. Coleman was arrested on six-count indictment on wire fraud charges that came in connection with Express Grain's Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. In a plea agreement signed by Coleman, he admitted that he "did devise and intend to devise a scheme to defraud” farmers, UMB Bank and the Mississippi State Board of Agriculture and to obtain money by means of false and fraudulent pretenses.

JBS USA Settles Child Labor Violations

The nation's largest meatpacking company JBS USA Food Company will pay $4 million as part of a settlement with the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), in connection with the company's use of child labor at meatpacking plants across the country. The DOL said on Monday the funds would be used to "prevent illegal child labor" and support victims of child labor nationwide while prioritizing those efforts in Guntersville, Alabama; Greeley, Colorado; Ottumwa, Iowa; Worthington, Minnesota; and Grand Island, Nebraska -- communities where JBS operates meatpacking plants. In addition, JBS will be required to hold third-party contractors and service providers accountable for illegal child labor. In 2022, the DOL investigated JBS meatpacking plants in several states and found that sanitation company Packers Sanitation Services Inc. employed at least 31 minors in hazardous occupations to do overnight cleaning at JBS plants.

Farmers Hit by USDA Funding Freeze

USDA is withholding funds from farmers for conservation programs, despite the White House stating last week that funds to individuals would not be frozen. Contractors for conservation programs also have been affected by a funding freeze. The Iowa Soybean Association, for instance, cited in a letter to lawmakers that $11 million owed to farmers is at risk. Farmers are learning their conservation payments are frozen because those contracts were funded through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Two federal judges over the past week have ruled that the Trump administration did not have authority to block funding that was appropriated by Congress. At least one Missouri producer posted videos on TikTok worried he could lose his farm because USDA "reneged" on his cost-share contract with NRCS under the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP).

Monday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CST

No other major economic reports scheduled.

Weather

Two pieces of energy will combine across the Plains on Monday, with some snow across the North and rain across the South. The southern portion of the storm will become more dominant as it moves into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for Tuesday.

Strong Demand and High Prices Ahead for Cattle Producers

The CattleFax Outlook Seminar held at CattleCon 2025 in San Antonio, Texas, shared expert market analysis. The U.S. beef industry is poised for another year of strong market performance, driven by tight cattle supplies and robust consumer demand. As the beef cow herd enters a stabilization phase following years of contraction, the resulting supply constraints have shifted market leverage decisively toward cattle producers. Weather conditions will remain a critical factor influencing grazing availability, herd expansion, and cattle prices. Meteorologist Matt Makens said La Niña this winter brings volatile weather changes across North America. U.S. producers will likely see drought acreage increase as it has nationwide since June. “Drought will likely increase across the Western U.S. this spring and into the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and Canadian prairies through this summer,” Makens said. Troy Bockleman, director of protein and grain analysis, noted that inflation eased in 2024, ending the year at 2.9 percent.

U.S. Ag Export Volumes Surged in 2024

Last year, most global importers took advantage of plentiful and cheaper U.S. bulk agricultural commodities, including soybeans and corn, the top ticket items. Reuters says milestones were notched among the top U.S. bulk grain destinations in 2024 as average export prices fell by more than one-fifth versus 2023. Lower prices meant this group of commodities pulled in five percent less revenue than the previous year, but the quantity was up significantly. By volume, U.S. bulk agricultural exports in 2024 surged 22 percent on the year, the largest annual rise in a decade. By value, U.S. agricultural and related product exports totaled $191 billion in 2024, up fractionally from 2023. That’s the third-largest on record in nominal dollar terms, down from 2022’s high of $213 billion. Canada, China, and Mexico are the top three markets for U.S. agriculture. Canada was the number one destination for U.S. farm goods in 2024.

Farm Sector Profits to Grow in 2025

USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income, defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, to increase by $30.6 billion from 2024 to $193.7 billion in 2025. U.S. net farm income, a broader measure of farm sector profitability, is forecast to increase by $37.7 billion to $180.1 billion in 2025. The projected growth comes after net farm income declined in 2023 and is forecast to have declined in 2024. Most of the projected increase in 2025 corresponds to an increase in direct government payments to farmers, projected to increase from $9.6 billion in 2024 to $42.4 billion this year. This increase is expected largely because of supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance to farmers and ranchers from the American Relief Act of 2025, which became law in December 2024 and authorized assistance payments to producers and payments for losses related to natural disasters in 2023 and 2024.

Thune, Booker Reintroduce the American Beef Labeling Act

South Dakota Senator and Senate Majority Leader John Thune and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker reintroduced bipartisan legislation that would reinstate mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef. The American Beef Labeling Act would require the U.S. Trade Representative, in consultation with the USDA, to develop a World Trade Organization-compliant means of reinstating MCOOL for beef within one year of passage. Thune, a longtime supporter of MCOOL, said ranchers work tirelessly to produce some of the highest quality beef in the world, and they deserve a fair labeling system that provides consumers with basic information about the origin of their beef. Booker said, “For too long, the big meatpackers have been misleading people with deceptive labeling. More transparency will enable consumers to support local family farmers and ranchers.” The bill says the USTR would have six months to develop a reinstatement plan, followed by a six-month window to implement it.

Below Average Runoff in Upper Missouri River Basin

The updated 2025 calendar year runoff forecast for the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, continues to be below average. January runoff in the Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, was 0.7 million acre-feet, 92 percent of the average. Runoff was near or below average for most of the Missouri River Basin, and most of the upper basin had below-normal precipitation. “Runoff into the reservoir system was below average for the month of January, and conditions across the basin remain dry,” said John Remus of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. “With the below-average plains and mountain snowpack, we are forecasting a below-average runoff year for the basin.” The 2025 calendar year runoff forecast above Sioux City is 20.6 million acre-feet, 80 percent of the average. The start of the runoff season typically is March 1, when the total volume of water in the System is expected to be 50 million acre-feet.

Chinese Mystery Seed Packages are Back

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller is urging all Texans to exercise extreme caution if they receive unsolicited packages containing unknown seeds or liquids. The Texas Ag Department has recently been alerted to a mystery package delivered to Clute, Texas, containing unidentified seeds and a liquid container sent unsolicited from China. “We’re asking you to take this matter seriously,” Commissioner Miller stressed. “Receiving any unsolicited liquid or chemical at your doorstep poses a significant risk to the health of you and your family.” He also says Texas residents cannot allow unidentified seeds to enter Texas. If they are invasive species and get planted, they will substantially harm the Texas agriculture industry. The Texas Ag Department promptly forwarded the package and its contents to the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service for thorough identification and testing. People who do get a foreign package containing seeds should never open it.

Friday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Employment and Wage Data for January at 7:30 a.m. CST

StatsCan Stocks of Principal Field Crops in December at 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. Agricultural Trade Data -- USDA Economic Research Service at 2 p.m. CST

CFTC Commitments of Traders Report at 2:30 p.m. CST

Weather

A storm system moving through the Intermountain West on Friday morning should make it out into the Plains this evening. A band of snow will develop across the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest throughout the day, but rain will probably hold off farther south until this evening or overnight across the southeastern Plains and Ohio Valley.

Ag Manufacturers and Traders Report Tough Profit Outlooks

Several of the biggest agricultural companies in America are feeling a pinch to their bottom lines. Reuters says Archer-Daniels-Midland posted its lowest fourth-quarter profits in six years, thanks to weak oilseed crush margins and uncertainty over U.S. biofuel policy. ADM, based in Chicago, says it’s going to cut costs by $500 million to $750 million during the next three to five years, including cutting 700 jobs to weather the downturn in the market. Bunge Global missed industry expectations for fourth-quarter profits after a global glut in crop prices took a hit on the grain traders’ margins. The agribusiness segment represents over 80 percent of the company’s revenue and saw its adjusted core earnings decline to $364 million in the fourth quarter from $639 million a year earlier. It’s also a tough go for machinery manufacturers as CNH Industrial forecast its full-year profit below Wall Street estimates because of low demand in 2025.

Minnesota Investigates Farmworker Exploitation Case

A Minnesota state investigation into farmworker exploitation at a Stearns County dairy farm has resulted in felony charges. Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison announced that Keith Lawrence Schaefer is charged with four counts of wage theft of more than $5,000 and one count of racketeering. Ellison’s office brought civil action against the Evergreen Acres Dairy in Paynesville, Minnesota, last year, alleging theft of wages and mistreating workers from other countries. Investigators say he failed to pay overtime, withheld pay illegally, and made workers live in overcrowded and deplorable conditions. He also allegedly threatened to call immigration authorities when workers complained about the mistreatment. A criminal complaint filed in Stearns County this week outlines four consecutive six-month periods from 2022-2023 in which Schaefer reportedly stole $5,000 in wages or more. In one case, an employee never received his final paycheck of $3,000 owed for 204 hours worked in the last pay period.

Wisconsin Using Cheese Brine to Clear Icy Roads

Cheese brine is being used to melt snow and ice off the roads in Monroe, Wisconsin. Green County Highway Commissioner Chris Narveson says the liquid is made up of 23 percent salt and is better for the environment. He says the salt doesn’t melt the snow, but it’s the brine that does it. The County has already used more than 75 thousand gallons of cheese brine. Business Insider points out that because cheese brine is a waste product that wouldn’t otherwise be used for any purpose, counties usually get it for free and only have to pay to transport it. “It costs Green County around $2.80 to $4.20 per mile to use cheese brine on its roads, while it costs more than ten times that amount - $15 to $25 per mile – to use rock salt,” Narveson said. Green County has a functioning cheese factory that can provide cheese brine.

U.S. Cattle Herd Contraction is Slowing

The recent Cattle on Feed Report was called neutral-to-slightly-positive by Bernt (BEAR-ent) Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau. He says the overall rate of contraction in the U.S. cattle herd has slowed. However, factors like demand, beef prices, and trade, among other factors, will influence producers’ decisions about what to do with their animals. “Cash prices for fed steers recently hit record highs,” Nelson said. “While that’s good for sellers, it’s important to remember that they create obstacles for cattle buyers and can be a barrier for farmers who want to expand their herds.” He also says this isn’t a typical cattle cycle where high prices lead to growth in the U.S. herd. High cattle prices combined with the unpredictability of future prices and profitability could compel farmers to continue marketing a higher percentage of females for beef rather than breeding, which could continue the current contraction cycle.

Ukraine Grain Output and Exports Expected to Fall

Ukraine’s Ag Department says the country’s grain output in the 2024-2025 marketing season is now forecast to drop 13 percent compared to the previous year. Production in the year ending on June 30 is expected to fall 13 percent annually as corn, barley, and rye output are all projected to drop. Corn production will plunge 24 percent from its 2023-2024 estimate to 24.6 million metric tons. The agency says Ukraine’s barley output is projected to drop three percent to 5.9 million metric tons. Rye production is projected to be 190,000 tons, an 18 percent year-over-year decrease. Wheat production is forecast at 22.9 million metric tons, little changed from the 2023-2024 estimate. Exports in the 2024-2025 marketing year are also expected to plummet. Two factors will limit grain exports, including the depletion of ending stocks in the calendar year 2022 due to the Russian invasion and to lower corn production estimates.

New Platform to Review Biologicals

AgList is a new platform to help farmers discover ag biological products and see what other growers are using and recommending. There are hundreds of companies manufacturing ag biologicals, a broad category that includes biocontrols, biostimulants, and biofertilizers, to name a few. To date, farmers didn’t have a way to figure out which products might work best for their operations. Plus, the sheer number of products makes it difficult for manufacturers to stand out in a crowd. “It’s an extremely crowded space,” Dr. Pam Marrone said during the Salinas Biologicals Summit. “There are opportunities, but often the ones that come first are the easiest technically and don’t necessarily target what the growers need.” Brothers Tim and Tyler Nuss are family farmers themselves and are behind the launch of AgList. They know firsthand about the difficulties of finding the right ag biologicals. They plan to expand the platform in the future at aglist.com.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CST

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange Argentine Crop Conditions Update at 12 p.m. CST

Weekly Slaughter at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

A system that brought a wintry mix of precipitation on Wednesday to the Midwest continues through the Northeast on Thursday with the same hazards. The next system in the pipeline will be moving into California later Thursday.