Rural Mainstreet Economy Contracts Again

The January 2025 Rural Mainstreet Index fell below growth neutral for the 16th time in the past 17 months. For the eighth time in the past nine months, farmland prices took a tumble. On average, bank CEOs who responded to the monthly survey expect annual cash rents of $278 per acre of non-irrigated, non-pasture farmland. Farm equipment sales also dropped, making it 18 months in a row. Also on the survey, bankers expect one in five grain farmers to experience a negative cash flow for 2025. Approximately one-third of bank CEOs recommend that the Federal Reserve leave short-term interest rates unchanged in 2025. Data from the International Trade Association says regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first 11 months of 2024 rose by $673.4 million to $11.6 billion from the same period in 2023 for a 6.2 percent gain. Mexico was the top destination for 2024 ag exports.

NASDA Sets 2025 Policy Focus

The National Association of State Departments of Agriculture’s member-led Board of Directors chose five issues to serve as the organization’s primary policy focus for 2025. The priorities include a new farm bill, food systems, pesticide regulation, PFAS, and state cooperative agreement funding. “NASDA members specified these areas as necessary to work on to best support farmers, ranchers, and communities nationwide,” says NASDA CEO Ted McKinney. “We believe these areas represent critical opportunities where state departments of agriculture can lead impactful change and champion effective policy solutions this year.” Among the main priorities, NASDA will advocate for policies and programs that fortify U.S. food systems, enhance supply chain resilience, and improve reliable access to nutritious foods. NASDA says it will engage with the Environmental Protection Agency to ensure science-based standards and state input are incorporated in regulatory initiatives such as the Endangered Species Act Workplan. For more information, go to nasda.org.

Zeldin is the New Head of the EPA

Lee Zeldin was sworn in as the new administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. Administrator Zeldin will work closely on the EPA’s mission. Zeldin says he’s honored to be the 17th administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. “We will take great strides to defend every American’s access to clean air, clean water, and clean land,” he said. “We’ll maintain and expand the gold standard of environmental stewardship and conservation we saw in President Trump’s first term.” U.S. ag groups reacted positively and noted that they’re ready to work with the new EPA chief. “We look forward to working with him on corn grower issues like increasing ethanol blends and ensuring access to inputs required to produce food, feed, and fuel,” says Kenneth Hartman, Jr., president of the National Corn Growers Association. “For far too long, the EPA has stood for ‘Ending Production Agriculture,” says NCBA Vice President Ethan Lane.

U.S. Agriculture Directly in the Bullseye

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said she doesn’t believe the U.S. will impose tariffs on Saturday, February 1, as President Donald Trump had pledged. Reuters says her administration has already put a response plan in place if it becomes needed. The report says retaliatory tariffs would initially exempt the auto industry, sparing what has become Mexico’s most important manufacturing sector and one closely integrated with the U.S. The retaliatory tariffs will likely hit pork products, cheese, apples, grapes, potatoes, cranberries, and Bourbon whiskey, as well as manufactured steel and aluminum. “Mexico has chosen these products because they have a big impact on regions that overwhelmingly voted for President Trump,” Sheinbaum said. Bloomberg says Howard Lutnick, Trump’s pick to lead the Commerce Department, says Mexico and Canada can avoid the tariffs if they tighten border security. “If we’re your biggest trading partner, show us some respect and shut your border,” Trump had said.

Ethanol Output Falls to Three-Month Low

The Energy Information Administration says ethanol production dropped to its lowest level in almost three months, and inventories declined during the week ending on January 24. Output declined to an average of 1.015 million barrels a day. That’s down from 1.099 million the previous week and the lowest level since the week that ended on September 27. The EIA says Midwest production plunged to an average of 964,000 barrels a day, down from 1.042 million the week before. That’s also the lowest level since September. Gulf Coast output dropped to 19,000 barrels a day from 24,000 barrels a week earlier. That’s the entirety of the losses because the remaining three regions’ production was unchanged. East Coast and Rocky Mountain output were both steady at 11,000 barrels a day, while West Coast production averaged 10,000 barrels. Ethanol inventories were down to 25.72 million barrels. That’s down from 25.8 million the previous week.

Chicken Wings and the Super Bowl

Kansas City is known for its barbecue, and Philadelphia for its cheesesteaks. When it comes to Super Bowl menus, nothing is hotter than wings. The National Chicken Council released its annual Chicken Wing Report, projecting Americans will consume 1.47 billion chicken wings while watching the Chiefs and Eagles battle for the Lombardi Trophy. “Matthew McConaughey was right: football is for food,” says NCC Spokesman Tom Super. “Sure, there will be pizza, guacamole, chips, and dips, but when it comes to the Super Bowl, chicken wings will rule the roost.” To put it in context, if every player in the NFL ate 50 wings a day (and was immortal), it would take them collectively 720 years to eat 1.47 billion. 1.47 billion wings laid end to end would stretch from Arrowhead Stadium in KC to Lincoln Financial Field in Philly about 63 times. “We love our football and wings,” Super said.

Friday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure data at 7:30 a.m. CST

EIA Monthly Biofuels Capacity and Feedstocks at 11 a.m. CST

USDA Cattle Inventory Report at 2 p.m. CST

CFTC Report at 2:30 p.m. CST

Weather

A system that dumped some heavy rain in the South-Central states on Thursday continues east through the Midwest, Southeast, and East Coast for Friday. Most of its precipitation is rain but some snow will mix in across the northern edge in the southern Great Lakes. The Pacific Northwest is seeing heavy precipitation move into the region while cold air is starting to build into western Canada.

Kansas Aquifer Drops a Foot

Kansans rely on the Ogallala (oh-gah-LAH-lah) Aquifer in western Kansas for everything from irrigation to drinking water, and it fell more than a foot last year. The Kansas Geological Survey recently completed its annual campaign to measure the aquifer, which supplies one-third of the state with water. The Ogallala is the largest underground source of fresh water in the nation. The Kansas Reflector reports that aquifer levels in the groundwater management area fell by 1.52 feet between January 2024 and this month, a larger drop than the 1.43-foot decline the year before. Oklahoma State University reported that approximately 14 percent of the total aquifer consists of irrigated acres capable of producing $7 billion in crop sales. The aquifer also provides one-fourth of the total water supply used for agricultural production across the U.S. Kansas Governor Laura Kelley says if nothing happens, the farming industry and western Kansas will dry up.

Bill Would Repeal the 45Z Tax Credit

Representative Beth Van Duyne (R-TX) recently introduced a bill that aims to repeal the Section 45Z clean fuel production credit. The tax credit, established by the Inflation Reduction Act, supports the production of various low-carbon transportation fuels. The technology-neutral credit is available for numerous biobased and renewable fuels, including sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, ethanol, renewable natural gas, and biodiesel, provided they meet lifecycle greenhouse gas reduction requirements. Fuels must be produced in the U.S. and not emit more than the limit of carbon dioxide equivalent established by the GREET model to qualify for the credit. Initial guidance on 45Z was released on January 10. The bill introduced on January 16 would repeal the 45Z tax credit, effective on December 31, 2024. Following its introduction, the bill was referred to the House Committee on Ways and Means. Ethanol Producer Dot Com says to date, no other lawmakers have cosponsored the legislation.

Meat Institute Strategies to Reduce Meat Prices

The Meat Institute sent a letter to President Donald Trump to provide strategies to reduce burdensome regulations and address meat prices for consumers. The letter included a list of recommended actions for the administration to take, including rescinding the final rule under the Packers and Stockyards Act put in place in March 2024. “Despite a lack of legal authority and court precedent to the contrary, the rule attempts to enshrine diversity, equity, and inclusion concepts into the Packers and Stockyards Act,” The Institute said. It also recommends directing the Ag Secretary to rescind the final rule, “Poultry Grower Payment Systems and Capital Improvement Systems.” Paired with the complete list of recommendations to clear up regulatory impediments, the Meat Institute also supports the USDA’s inspection modernization for pork and poultry processing. The Institute also encourages USDA to issue Interim Final Rules to allow pork and poultry facilities to operate above traditional line speed restrictions.

Farm Bureau Establishes 2025 Policy Priorities

Farmer and rancher delegates to the American Farm Bureau’s annual convention adopted policies to guide the organization’s work in 2025. “Policy priorities include everything from passing a new farm bill, enacting regulatory reform, and creating new markets for the men and women dedicated to keeping America’s pantries stocked,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. Delegates also adopted policy supporting the development and sale of domestically sourced sustainable aviation fuel, including expanding the list of acceptable conservation practices for feedstock eligibility. They also strengthened policy on alternative energy production, including increasing the responsibility of energy companies to manage land used for development and prioritizing energy production on land not suitable for agriculture. Recognizing the challenges of maintaining a strong agricultural workforce, delegates voted to stabilize labor costs to avoid drastic swings that put the economic sustainability of farms at risk. Next year’s AFBF Convention will be in Anaheim, California.

Sugar Alliance Congratulates Officials on Confirmations

On behalf of the nation’s sugarbeet and sugarcane farmers and workers, the American Sugar Alliance congratulated Kristi Noem on her confirmation as Secretary of Homeland Security. “We look forward to once again partnering with Secretary Noem to address the needs and priorities of America’s sugar producers,” the Alliance said. “From her time in Congress and as Governor of South Dakota, Secretary Noem knows well the challenges faced by the agriculture industry, which includes strong enforcement of U.S. trade and customs laws and safeguarding the supply chains that power America’s rural economies.” The Alliance also congratulated Marco Rubio on his confirmation as Secretary of State. “As the former Senator from Florida, Secretary Rubio understands just how deeply American sugar production is tied to America’s economy, food security, and rural communities,” the Alliance said. American sugarbeet and sugarcane farmers and their workers supply about 75 percent of the sugar consumed nationwide.

Give FFA Day is February 20

February 20 is the tenth annual Give FFA Day during National FFA Week. The day is dedicated to making a difference in the lives of over a million FFA members across the country and growing the next generation of leaders who will change the world. The National FFA Organization is a school-based national youth leadership development organization with the mission of helping students develop their leadership skills and explore career paths in agriculture. Funds raised on Give FFA Day support the FFA and agricultural education at the local, state, and national levels. The money supports special programs and events, provides the iconic FFA blue jackets to students, supplemental travel costs for career and leadership training, and pays for teacher support and resources throughout the year. “We know that every gift makes a difference and are grateful to our donors for their continued support,” says Kim Coveney, FFA’s manager of individual giving.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. 4Q GDP at 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CST

Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange Weekly Crop Update at 12:00 p.m. CST

U.S. Weekly Slaughter at 2:00 p.m. CST

Weather

A storm system building in the Southern Plains with areas of thunderstorms and heavy rain from Texas into Arkansas will spread northeast into the Ohio Valley and Delta for Thursday. Heavy rain could cause flooding in some areas. Some severe thunderstorms will be possible around Louisiana as well.

New Strain of Bird Flu Hits California Flock

The United States reported its first outbreak of H5N9 bird flu in poultry on a duck farm in California. Reuters said that authorities also detected the more common H5N1 strain on the same farm in Merced (mer-SAID) County, California. Almost 119,000 birds on the farm had been killed by December 2. A recent outbreak of bird flu in poultry in Georgia, the biggest chicken producer in the U.S., is set to trigger trade restrictions from major meat importers. Reuters said an industry group warned last week that a move of that kind could financially harm farmers and processors. The USDA’s most recent egg price outlook says egg prices were predicted to increase by 20 percent in 2025, compared to 2.2 percent for overall food prices. USA Today says, “The USDA attributed the rise in egg costs to the bird flu outbreak which caused a strain in the number of layers.”

Vilsack to Lead World Food Prize Foundation

The World Food Prize Foundation says former Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack will serve as the new CEO of the organization beginning on March 1, 2025. As the CEO, the Foundation says Vilsack will leverage his extensive leadership and diplomatic experience to enhance the Foundation’s global impact in food security and sustainable agriculture. “The World Food Prize Foundation has a phenomenal and important history of advancing innovation to address global food security,” Vilsack says. “I look forward to forging new partnerships, helping bring to life new solutions in the fight against hunger, and championing efforts to ensure a sustainable and equitable food system for future generations.” In his new role, Vilsack will focus on expanding the Foundation’s global network and will further position the Foundation as a leader in addressing global food insecurity. “I’m honored to help build on the outstanding legacy of the World Food Prize Foundation,” Vilsack adds.

SD Bill Aims to Prevent Eminent Domain

The South Dakota House State Affairs Committee voted 10-3 to advance a bill preventing the use of eminent domain for the development of carbon dioxide pipelines in the state. The legislation was introduced on January 15 and referred to the House State Affairs Committee, which addressed it on January 24. During the hearing, numerous landowners testified in support of the bill, while representatives from Summit Carbon Solutions, the South Dakota Ethanol Producers Association, and several other ethanol producers testified against the legislation. Ethanol Producer Dot Com says an attorney representing Summit clarified that the bill purports to eliminate the privilege of eminent domain from the Summit pipeline project based on what it carries, which is a non-flammable, not-explosive gas that is emitted into the state’s air daily. To develop the pipeline project, Summit is seeking easements from landowners to bury a pipeline underground. The company says, “There’s no land grab here.”

Sorghum Organizations Conclude Mission to India

National Sorghum Producers and the United Sorghum Checkoff Program recently joined the U.S. Grains Council for its annual Joint Officer’s Mission in India. The goal was to strengthen relationships with the country’s feed industry, explore sustainable aviation fuel priorities, and highlight U.S. sorghum as a non-genetically modified option for India’s importers. “Promotional efforts by the Council and sorghum organizations have generated notable interest from Indian poultry producers facing escalating input costs,” says Verity Ulibarri (oo-lih-BAR-ee), chairwoman of the USGC. “Our discussions emphasized U.S. sorghum’s benefits and laid the groundwork for deeper trade ties.” India’s emergence as a net coarse grains importer highlights the growing demand for reliable, high-quality feed grains. With record feed costs and ambitious ethanol blending targets, Indian buyers sought insights into how U.S. sorghum can support economic and environmental goals. “As India’s poultry production grows, U.S. sorghum offers a dependable, low-carbon solution,” says Amy France, NSP Chair.

Korean Unrest Not Affecting Beef Demand

South Korea’s President was arrested and indicted after briefly imposing martial law in December. He also faces an impeachment trial that will determine if he’s removed from office. The U.S. Meat Export Federation says that while the political turmoil has further weakened Korea’s currency, consumers are largely unfazed by the situation, and it has not affected demand for U.S. red meat. South Korea is the leading value market for U.S. beef exports, with shipments through November of last year totaling over $2 billion, up five percent from the previous year. U.S. pork exports to Korea climbed 21 percent over the same period to $669 million, although exports slowed to some degree in the fourth quarter of this year. This week marks the Lunar New Year, a holiday celebration that typically drives both retail and food service sales of red meat. The South Korean government is extending the holiday to boost consumer spending.  

Don’t Run the Clock Out on Food Safety During the Super Bowl

The USDA says if you’re hosting a Super Bowl party this year, keep food safety in your playbook to ensure that bacteria doesn’t run out the clock. The Food Safety and Inspection Service has a plan to keep your Super Bowl servings penalty-free. “One of the biggest threats to a successful game day meal is bacteria that causes foodborne illness,” says FSIS Administrator Dr. Denise Eblen. “Make sure the takeout or delivered food is quickly refrigerated or placed in an oven until your guests arrive.” Pizza, chicken wings, hamburger sliders, chili, and other Super Bowl favorites cannot stay at room temperature for more than two hours. Bacteria will multiply to unsafe levels if perishable food is left out in the open. Whether it’s takeout or delivered food, serve promptly or divide the food into smaller portions and place it in shallow containers until you’re ready to reheat the food and serve guests.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods at 7:30 a.m. CST

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report including ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CST

U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Announcement at 1 p.m. CST followed by Fed Chair Powell press conference

Weather

A storm system is leaving the Southwest and moving into the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Showers will increase throughout the day and some severe weather will be possible in Texas by the evening. Other areas of the country will remain warm and dry outside of the snow carried by a clipper moving through the Northeast.

USDA Trade Mission to Expand Exports to Thailand

The USDA will spearhead a trade mission to Thailand from February 3-6, 2025, to expand agricultural exports and strengthen trade ties in Southeast Asia. The mission includes 40 agribusinesses, trade organizations, and representatives from five state departments of agriculture. “The mission isn’t just about boosting exports,” said Patrick Packnett of the Foreign Agricultural Service. “It’s about creating enduring partnerships that benefit American farmers and meet the growing demand of Southeast Asian consumers for high-quality U.S.-grown products.” In 2023, the U.S. exported $1.2 billion in agricultural products to Thailand, making America the country’s fifth-largest supplier. While bulk commodities dominate current exports, Thailand’s expanding middle class and growing demand for imported goods create strong opportunities for U.S. consumer-oriented products. With a population of 70 million and real GDP projected to rise 2.6 percent in 2024, the region offers significant growth potential. The mission will include meetings with officials from Thailand and Burma.

Cattle on Feed Down One Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million head on January 1, 2025. The inventory was one percent below January 1, 2024. The inventory includes 7.25 million steers and steer calves, up one percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 61 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.58 million head, down three percent from 2024. “This report was about as bullish of a report that cattlemen could have hoped for,” says DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart. “It’s a relief to see more marketings taking place, which, in combination with lighter placements, helped decrease the total number of cattle on feed.” Marketings of fed cattle during December totaled 1.74 million head, one percent higher than last year. Other disappearances totaled 59,000 head during December, two percent below 2023.

Communicating with Farmers Under Stress Webinar

An upcoming Penn State University Extension Service webinar titled “Communicating with Farmers Under Stress” is scheduled for February 24, 2025. The webinar will help participants learn the signs of stress and how to help. The program is designed for agriculture industry professionals, loan officers, family members of farmers, and concerned citizens. The webinar will help participants build awareness of the stressors affecting farmers and their families and recognize the signs and symptoms of anxiety and warning signs of suicide. They’ll learn to access, approach, and assist farmers who are showing changes in their mental health and help access local, state, and national resources. The webinar is free, but attendees must register before the start of the webinar to get the access link. Those who register also get a link to watch the recording of the program. For more information or to sign up, go to the Penn State Extension website.

ASI Convention Shines a Light on Flock’s Future

Sheep producers from across the country shared a renewed excitement for the industry’s future as a panel of solar grazers pointed toward new heights for the American sheep flock. Agrivoltaics is the practice of using land for both agriculture and solar energy production, and more often than not, at this point, that agricultural use is the grazing of sheep. The explosion of solar fields throughout the country has created a whole new job for America’s sheep, and producers are welcoming the opportunity to supplement their incomes with grazing fees. While solar grazing has allowed producers to expand their flocks, it has also welcomed newcomers who often found the lack of land an expensive barrier to getting into the industry. The Western wildfires that dominated the news in recent weeks have also put a spotlight on grazing and the role it can play in the climate discussion and wildfire prevention.

House Passes Key Land Management Bills

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and the Public Lands Council applauded House passage of two significant land management bills that are strongly supported by America’s livestock producers. They are the ACRES Act and the Fix Our Forests Act. “Devastating wildfires throughout the West have shown that the federal government needs to step up their protection of western landscapes, and that starts by supporting farmers and ranchers on the ground whose hard work helps reduce wildfire risk,” says NCBA President and Wyoming rancher Mark Eisele (EYES-lee). These bills increase the West’s resiliency against wildfires and strengthen the accountability of federal agencies. The ACRES Act requires USDA and the Interior Department to accurately report their activities in reducing hazardous wildfire fuels. The Fix Our Forests Act supports livestock grazing as a valuable tool for reducing wildfire risk, reduces frivolous lawsuits, and supports other measures to protect the West from enduring catastrophic wildfires.

U.S. Share of China’s Soybean Market Dropped in 2024

China’s soybean imports from the United States dropped five percent in 2024 from the previous year. Reuters says, “U.S. soybean imports were replaced in the Chinese market by shipments from Brazil and Argentina as fears of a renewed trade war between China and the U.S. dropped America’s market share.” Brazil remained China’s top soybean supplier last year as Beijing expanded its efforts to reduce its reliance on the United States and deepened cooperation with other suppliers to ensure China’s food security. “Brazil’s market share rose to 71 percent while the U.S. market share dropped to 21 percent,” Reuters reported. “Argentina’s soybean exports to China more than doubled to 4.1 million tons in 2024 from 1.95 million tons in 2023.” The report said that U.S. shipments to China have risen since April 2024 and accelerated during the past few months as traders prepared for a potential halt to soybean trade between the two countries.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. FOMC Meeting Begins

U.S. Durable Good Orders at 8:30 a.m. CST

U.S. Consumer Confidence at 9 a.m. CST

Weather

A clipper is moving through the Northeast Tuesday with another on its heels to move through the Great Lakes. Both are producing areas of snow and gusty winds. The rest of the country awaits an upper-level low-pressure center in the Southwest that will cause a larger storm system starting in the Southern Plains on Wednesday.

Supreme Court Lifts Corporate Transparency Act Injunction

National Cattlemen’s Beef Association Executive Director of Government Affairs Kent Bacus reacted to the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to lift the injunction that temporarily halted enforcement of the Corporate Transparency Act’s reporting requirements. “Cattle producers across the country are disappointed in the Supreme Court ruling, which will allow the federal government to blanket family-owned farms and ranches in fresh red tape while subjecting millions of law-abiding small business owners to potential legal jeopardy,” Bacus said. “We urge President Trump and his administration to rescue millions of American small business owners from these burdensome reporting requirements and delay enforcement until a meaningful solution is found.” The Court placed a previous injunction on hold that had been in place since December. Reuters says enforcing the law is still blocked and companies aren’t required to report the information resulting from a separate order issued on January 7 by a U.S. District Judge in Texas.

USDA Secretary Nominee Has Confirmation Hearing

Ag Secretary nominee Brooke Rollins spoke with Senators on a wide range of topics during her confirmation hearing last week. As President Donald Trump considers another round of tariffs, she said USDA will be prepared again to give aid to farmers if they face retaliatory tariffs from other countries. Rollins mentioned that she’s already spoken with Sonny Perdue, Trump’s Ag Secretary during his first term, about USDA’s previous response to the trade war with China. Also, despite concerns about farmworkers being deported, Rollins said she’s willing to work with the Departments of Labor and Congress to reform the H-2A migrant-labor program. Farm Policy News reported that the hearing was “congenial and bipartisan,” but that didn’t stop Senators from raising several concerns, including biofuels. The Renewable Fuels Association said it was great to hear Rollins say she will “defend, elevate, and honor” all sources of fuel, including ethanol.

Ethanol Production Rises in Mid-January

Ethanol output rose during the seven days ending on January 17 as inventories climbed to their highest level in nine months. Data from the Energy Information Administration says production increased to an average of 1.099 million barrels a day, up from 1.095 million barrels during the prior week. The agency said the Midwest, which produces the most ethanol in the country, produced a slightly higher 1.042 million barrels a day, on average, from 1.041 million barrels during the previous week. The Gulf Coast region’s output rose to an average of 24,000 barrels a day from 22,000 during the prior week. That was all the weekly gains as the output in the East Coast and Rocky Mountain regions remained unchanged from the previous week. Ethanol stockpiles jumped during the week to 25.874 million barrels. That’s up from 25.008 barrels a week earlier and the largest since the week ending on April 12.

Nebraska, SD Say No to Lab-Grown Meat

Following an executive order last year prohibiting Nebraska state agencies from buying lab-grown meat, Nebraska’s Governor Jim Pillen recently vocalized his support of proposed bill LB246. The National Agricultural Law Center says the bill would ban the manufacturing, production, importation, distribution, and sale of lab-grown meat in Nebraska by classifying “cultivated-protein food product” as an adulterant. It was introduced at the governor’s request and has been referred to the Agriculture Committee. To become law, it has to pass the Nebraska Unicameral Legislature and get signed into law by the governor. Also, a bill defining and requiring lab-grown meat to be clearly labeled has advanced through a committee in the South Dakota House of Representatives. HB1022 defines “cell-cultured protein” and classifies cell-cultured proteins that are not labeled as such to be misbranded. The bill has to pass both the South Dakota House and Senate and be signed into law by the governor.

Bill Would Revoke China’s Normalized Trade Relation Status

Congressmen John Moolenaar (MOE-leh-nar) (R-MI) and Tom Suozzi (soo-OZZY) (D-N Y) introduced the Restoring Trade Fairness Act, the first bipartisan bill that would revoke China’s Permanent Normalized Trade Relations. “The Act is a critical step toward ending the unfair economic practices of the Chinese Communist Party that have hurt American workers and weakened our national security,” Moolenaar said. “For too long, permanent normal trade relations with China have undermined our manufacturing base, shifted American jobs abroad, and allowed the CCP to exploit our markets while betraying the promise of fair competition.” This legislation will safeguard U.S. national security, enhance supply chain resilience, and bring manufacturing jobs back to America and our allies. “This bipartisan bill makes the message clear that the Chinese Communist Party cannot receive preferential treatment because of its unfair trade practices,” said Congressman Suozzi. Senators Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Jim Banks (R-IN) introduced companion legislation in the Senate.

Angus Foundation Highlights January Success

January successfully launched an exciting new year for the Angus Foundation, bringing with it numerous opportunities to advance education, youth, and research. Thanks to the enthusiastic and generous support garnered through the events held in conjunction with the Cattlemen’s Congress in Oklahoma City, this year is shaping up to be another year of impact for the Foundation. Contributions in support of the Foundation’s missions helped raise over $150,000 through “Join us in January” events like the Angus Foundation Heifer Package and Herdsman Social Auction. “The funds help us to have continued success for our Angus membership through leadership and educational development, advancement of the breed’s genetics, and development of our next generation," said Jaclyn Boester, executive director of the Angus Foundation. “It is astonishing to have the unwavering support of our donors and supporters to keep advancing our Foundation’s mission.” You can learn more about the Angus Foundation at angus.org/foundation.

Monday Watch List

Markets

U.S. New Home Sales at 9 a.m. CST

U.S. Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CST

Weather

A small disturbance is moving through the Southeast on Monday with scattered rain. To the north, a clipper system is moving across Canada. Its cold front will drag down into the Great Lakes and Northeast, producing some strong winds and areas of snow.

Amazon-Backed Windfall Bio Hits Commercial Milestone for Methane-Eating Microbes

Amazon-backed startup Windfall Bio said it successfully scaled production of methane-eating microbes, a milestone in sustainable fertilizer development. Windfall Bio said fermentation of the microbes reached 17,000 liters, representing commercial-scale production of its methane removal solution. The microbes consume methane and transform into nitrogen-rich biomass that can be processed into high-value organic fertilizer. Windfall is testing its organic fertilizer as it pursues regulatory approvals. It is also providing large samples to customers to establish a market. This achievement not only demonstrates our ability to deploy a nature-based solution at scale but also redefines how industries can turn harmful methane emissions into valuable products like organic fertilizer, Josh Silverman, co-founder and CEO of Windfall Bio, said in a statement.

Farm Costs in 2025? Here Are the Results from the Latest Poll

A recent poll asked farmers where they plan to cut costs. Equipment purchases topped the list, but farmers also plan to scale back on fertilizer rates, use more generic products and reduce tillage or field passes. The theme that consumed the crops side of agriculture in 2024 was this: tighter margins with producers from coast to coast searching for ways to cut back.  It was tough, tough recipe for a lot of farmers, and it could be a similar story for 2025. Out of the more than 1,300 farmers who responded to the online poll, the most glaring answer was machinery. Nearly 80 percent of farmers say that’s an area they’re likely to cut. Purchasing machinery was also a place farmers decided to scale back on in 2024. The latest Association of Equipment Manufacturers flash report shows sales of total farm tractors were down 13 percent on the year and combines fell 24 percent.

Perdue Farms to Shutter Tennessee Chicken Plant

Perdue Farms is set to close a chicken production plant in Monterey, Tennessee and will lay off more than 400 workers, the company confirmed to Agriculture Dive on Tuesday. The processor will shut down the facility on March 28, citing changes in market demand and how it processes and supplies chicken products for today’s customers. Addressing the Monterey plant’s challenges would require substantial additional investments to maintain operations. About 433 jobs will be eliminated as part of the closure. Perdue CEO Kevin McAdams said in a statement that the company will provide severance packages and job placement support to affected workers. They said the decision was not made lightly, and they are committed to treating every impacted associate with dignity, respect, and care. The poultry processor is one of the latest meatpackers to roll back production capabilities. In 2023, Tyson Foods closed six chicken processing plants to address supply and demand imbalances and shore up costs.

USDA Releases Guidance on Climate-Smart Crops in Biofuels

USDA has issued guidance regarding climate-smart crops used in the manufacture of biofuels. The interim rule gives insight into how farmers can access renewable fuel tax credits, though a Trump administration freeze on recent federal regulations is creating more uncertainty. The U.S. Department of Agriculture introduced guidance to help farms measure the emissions saved from climate-smart crops grown for biofuels, a step toward helping producers access renewable fuel tax credits. The interim rule, released roughly a week before the end of Former President Joe Biden’s term, establishes standards to track and report the impacts of sustainable farming practices in corn, soy and sorghum — three major feedstocks used in alternative fuels. The guidance had been expected to increase farm participation in biofuel tax credit programs. However, a Trump administration freeze on recent federal regulation injects uncertainty into the future of these new opportunities.

SARE Fellows Program Temporarily on Hold

The Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education (SARE) Outreach and its national partners have announced they will temporarily suspend the SARE Fellows program and will not by accepting Fellows applications this year. SARE Fellows, which began in 2007, has been utilized by agricultural professionals for professional development opportunities through national study tours focused on sustainable agriculture. In a statement, SARE says the Fellows program has not changed since it began and program updates are necessary to meet the current needs of the nation’s sustainable agricultural communities and partners. Pausing the program will allow them time to focus on improvements. They plan to relaunch a new SARE Outreach program in the future that is similar in its intention to the SARE Fellows program. They say the new program will still provide professional development opportunities to agricultural professionals and will continue to keep sustainable agriculture and farmers at the center of its mission. 

NCBA Announces Two Internship Opportunities

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) announced applications for two internship opportunities available summer 2025, a public policy internship based in Washington, D.C. and a meetings and events internship based in Centennial, Colorado. The public policy internship is held in conjunction with the Public Lands Council (PLC) and interns will have the opportunity to work on government advocacy projects that advance NCBA’s and PLC’s policy priorities. Interns will participate in research, monitor federal regulations and congressional activity, and participate in meetings with policy stakeholders. The meetings and events internship will give students an opportunity to learn about managing public events including logistics, marketing, venue coordination, and budgeting. Meetings and events interns will assist in the planning of NCBA’s annual Summer Business Meeting and CattleCon.  For more information and to complete an application, visit ncba.org.

Friday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. Consumer Sentiment at 9 a.m. CST

U.S. Existing Home Sales at 9 a.m. CST

USDA Cattle on Feed Report at 1 p.m. CST

Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics Weekly Soybean Harvest Update at 1 p.m. CST

Weather

A clipper system is moving across northern areas of the country on Friday, bringing areas of mostly light snow. Much of the rest of the country will remain dry.

Ten Percent Tariff Coming on Chinese Imports

In his second day in office, President Donald Trump aimed at China and the European Union with tariff threats. That’s after putting Canada and Mexico in the bullseye on day one. Bloomberg says that White House officials are discussing a ten percent tariff on China, based on the fact they’re sending fentanyl to the U.S. through Mexico and Canada. In response to the tariff threat, Farm Policy News says China is “willing to maintain communication with the U.S. to properly handle differences and expand mutually beneficial cooperation.” While the U.S. is China’s largest trading partner, China’s imports from the U.S. dropped 0.1 percent in dollar terms last year while exports grew 4.9 percent. China’s trade surplus with the U.S. was $361 million in 2024, higher than the $316 million reported in the last year of President Trump’s first term. President Trump’s first action on trade was ordering an investigation into U.S.-China trade.

Cargill to Pay $32 Million to Settle Lawsuit

Cargill has agreed to pay $32.5 million to settle a class action lawsuit that accuses the meatpacking giant of conspiring with other companies to artificially raise the price of turkeys. The deal was filed in the Northern Illinois U.S. District Court and still needs to be approved by the court. The lawsuit accused Cargill and Tyson, plus other major producers like Butterball and Perdue Farms, of coordinating to intentionally reduce the U.S. turkey supply to raise consumer prices. A class action lawsuit was filed in 2019 that claims for years, the nation’s largest turkey producers illegally increased prices in a scheme that cost consumers millions of dollars and forced grocery stores to pay higher prices for deli meat and other products. Agricultural Dive says the meat producers allegedly used data company Agri Stats to exchange sensitive information about production and pricing. The suit covers meatpacker activities from 2010-2017.

Irrigation Association Applauds Fordyce Nomination

The Irrigation Association expressed its strong support for the nomination of Richard Fordyce as USDA Undersecretary for Farm Production and Conservation. Fordyce, a Missouri farmer and former Farm Service Agency Administrator, brings extensive experience to the role. The association says he has a “strong understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing American agriculture.” Irrigation Association CEO Natasha Rankin says she’s pleased to congratulate Fordyce for his nomination on behalf of the association. “We look forward to working with him to help support American farmers increase their productivity while showcasing the positive impacts of irrigation,” Rankin says. “Together, we can advance the stewardship of our nation’s water and natural resources, ensuring the vitality of agriculture, and continuing to demonstrate the benefits of adopting sustainable irrigation practices.” The Irrigation Association also emphasized Fordyce’s background as both a farmer and leader at the federal and state levels, noting his potential to champion policies promoting innovation.

December Egg Production Down Three Percent

Egg Production in the United States totaled 9.12 billion during December 2024, down three percent from 2023. Production included 7.83 billion table eggs and 1.29 billion hatching eggs, of which 1.9 billion were broiler-type and 95.9 million were egg-type. The total number of layers during December averaged 373 million, down three percent from 2023. December egg production per 100 layers was 2,448 eggs, one percent lower than December 2023. All layers on January 1, 2025, totaled 369 million, down two percent from last year. The 369 million layers consisted of 304 million layers producing table or market eggs, 61.2 layers producing broiler-hatching eggs, and 3.91 million producing egg-type hatching eggs. Rate of laying per day on January 1, 2025, averaged 78.6 eggs per 100 layers, one percent lower than January 1, 2024. Egg-type chicks hatched in December were down one percent while broiler-type chick hatching was up three percent from 2023.

Moffitt Returns to American Farmland Trust

Former USDA Undersecretary Jenny Lester Moffitt joined American Farmland Trust as Senior Fellow, where she’ll focus on enhancing rural America’s vitality. She’ll help support agricultural producers in building their farming operations for future success. Her portfolio will include work at the intersection of farming, ranching, and the communities in which they play a critical part in future-proofing economies and preserving a rural way of life. Moffitt joins AFT after serving as the USDA Undersecretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs, the first woman to ever hold that position. While there, she provided leadership to both the Agricultural Marketing Service and the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. “We are so pleased to have someone of Jenny’s caliber on our team supporting the never more critical work of building resilience within America’s farm and ranches and the rural communities they are a part of,” says John Piotti (pee-AHT-tee), president and CEO of AFT.

U.S. Wheat Associates Board Elects New Officer

The U.S. Wheat Associates Board of Directors elected new officers for the organization’s 2024-2025 fiscal year at their meeting on January 15 in Washington, D.C. Mike Carstensen of Almira, Washington, was newly elected as the organization’s next Secretary-Treasurer and will take office in July 2025. “As a farmer, I believe we have to engage in activities that propel our industry forward,” Carstensen said. “I know the success of our market development efforts is critical to the success and sustainability of any operation.” Carstensen also says he’s very familiar with the great work done by the U.S. Wheat Associates staff and says it’s an honor to support their efforts to help guide the organization in representing wheat farmers from across the country. At the July board meeting in Boise, Idaho, current Vice Chairman Jim Pellman of North Dakota will take the office of Chairman. Pellman has been farming since 1990.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CST

EIA Petroleum Status Report including weekly ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CST

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly crop conditions update at around 12 p.m. CST

NASS Weekly and Monthly Slaughter Report at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

A clipper system is bringing scattered snow showers through the Great Lakes Thursday morning and will continue to spread them into the Northeast throughout the day. Colder air is briefly filling in behind the snow, which is causing some lake-effect as well. Cold air continues to be embedded across the Gulf and Southeast Coasts from snowfall earlier this week that is slowly melting.

Trump Doesn’t Implement Tariffs Right Away

President Donald Trump didn’t impose tariffs against Mexico and Canada right away as he previously stated. Instead, Farm Policy News says President Trump is thinking about possible 25 percent duties on imports from the USA’s North American neighbors by February 1 because of illegal immigrants and fentanyl crossing into the U.S. Trump did direct federal agencies to investigate persistent U.S. trade deficits, unfair trade practices, and alleged currency manipulation by other countries. Reporters did ask whether the White House would impose an across-the-board tariff on all imports, and the president said, “We may, but we aren’t ready for that right now.” He also held off on imposing day-one tariffs on Chinese goods, instead ordering his administration to investigate whether Beijing had lived up to the Phase One Trade Deal from his first term. In response, Canadian officials said that they would be ready to retaliate against potential U.S. tariffs.

Ag Groups Congratulate President Trump on Inauguration

President Donald Trump was officially sworn in as the 47th president of the U.S., and ag groups congratulated him. “We know the new president is a staunch ally of the U.S. farmer and second to none when it comes to negotiation acumen,” says National Corn Growers Association President Kenneth Hartman, Jr. “We look forward to working with him to advance issues of importance to the nation’s corn growers. The National Milk Producers Federation is also eager to get to work on a number of challenging issues. “We’re ready to work with leaders from the White House and Congress to help America prosper and for its world-leading dairy industry to grow and thrive,” says Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the NMPF. Doud also called for swift confirmation of Brooke Rollins to become the next Agriculture Secretary, noting that many key issues await her, the administration, and the new Congress.

Clean Fuels Asks EPA to Pause Cellulosic Waiver Proposal

Clean Fuels Alliance America filed written comments on the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed Partial Waiver of 2024 Cellulosic Biofuel Volumes. Clean Fuels is asking the agency to pause the rulemaking process until the agency can provide a full accounting of available cellulosic RINs for 2024 and consider whether pending small refinery exemptions or other mechanisms provide relief to refiners. Also, the group encourages the EPA to address the significant underestimation of biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuel volumes for 2024 and 2025. “We cannot accurately evaluate EPA’s calculation of an inadequate supply of cellulosic RINs for 2024 without first knowing the number of RINs that might be returned to the market through small refinery exemptions,” Clean Fuels wrote. “We ask that EPA finalize a step-change in 2024 advanced RVOs to EPA’s own projected advanced RIN generation, which is currently expected to exceed the required volumes by at least 2.6 billion RINs.”

NIAA Selects Fourth Leadership Class

The fourth class participating in the National Institute for Animal Agriculture’s Advanced Training for Animal Agriculture Leaders has been selected. The group will convene for the first session in Washington, D.C., in March. The Advanced Training for Animal Agriculture Leaders furthers NIAA’s mission to foster collaboration throughout the industry. NIAA established the leadership program in 2021 to provide an opportunity for animal agriculture leaders to gain next-level leadership and professional development training. “It’s refreshing to see professionals from very diverse backgrounds, with different roles, from varying geographical areas come together to problem solve, discuss, and work together for the betterment of animal agriculture as a whole,” says Jessie Wadle, NIAA manager of education and the supervisor of the leadership program. The cohort attends five in-person meetings with additional monthly virtual working sessions to focus on four areas of development, including critical thinking, leadership development, connecting and relating skills, and operational excellence.

Gary Washington Named Acting Ag Secretary

Long-time USDA Chief Information Officer Gary Washington was named the Acting Secretary of the USDA. Fed Scoop says while the newly inaugurated Trump administration is waiting for Senate confirmation of its initial nominations for Cabinet and Cabinet-level officials, one of the first actions by the White House on Monday was appointing temporary leaders in several departments. Washington has been the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s CIO for almost seven years and a government employee since 1997. Washington was also the CIO for the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service and the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Washington spent five years in private industry as well as ten years as a Computer Operator and a Command Control Specialist in the U.S. Air Force. He will handle the administrative duties of the office while Brooke Rollins’ nomination moves through the Senate. Her confirmation hearing is scheduled for this Thursday before the Senate Ag Committee.

SAF Coalition Applauds Reintroducing the Farm to Fly Act

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Coalition’s Executive Director Alison Graab applauded the reintroduction of the Farm to Fly Act. “The Farm to Fly Act is a meaningful step forward in harnessing the full potential of American agriculture to advance sustainable aviation fuel,” she says. “By creating new markets for U.S. farmers, this legislation not only strengthens our nation’s energy dominance but also uplifts rural communities across the country.” Kansas Senator Jerry Moran, one of several sponsors, says, “Sustainable aviation fuel is a promising alternative fuel source that can provide new markets for farmers while increasing our domestic energy production and security,” he said. “This legislation would increase the accessibility of biofuels for commercial use and directly support rural America and its farmers.” The Act clarifies SAF eligibility in USDA Bio-Energy Programs to expand markets for American agricultural crops in aviation bioenergy. The bill has garnered support across the ag and energy sectors. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators at 9 a.m. CST

No other major reports scheduled; market will continue to monitor South American weather as well as trade relation news.

Weather

Cold air continues over the snow across the South all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico as well as across the eastern Great Lakes. Another clipper is moving down from Canada and bringing some light snow showers with it and will also bring in some colder air for a couple of days as well.

Hundreds of Ag Groups Write Senators Backing USDA Secretary Nominee Rollins

Last week, 427 national and state agricultural groups and agribusinesses sent a letter to leaders of the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee supporting Brooke Rollins' nomination as Agriculture Secretary and calling on the committee and entire Senate to "promptly confirm" her for the Cabinet post. The Senate Agriculture Committee has set Rollins confirmation hearing for Jan. 23. The groups noted they represent farmers, ranchers, growers, hunters, forest owners, conservationists, cooperatives, state departments of agriculture, renewable fuel producers and agribusinesses nationwide -- encompassing all aspects of American agriculture, food nutrition and rural America. A native of Glen Rose, Texas, Rollins is the founder and CEO of the America First Policy Institute and America First Works, a pair of organizations that have championed Trump's agenda. Rollins was also a member of President-elect Donald Trump's Economic Advisory Council in 2016.

Trump Names USDA Undersecretary Nominees

President-elect Donald Trump has announced a slate of undersecretary nominees for the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Via social media, Trump announced that he will nominate Richard Fordyce as Agriculture undersecretary for farm production and conservation; Dudley Hoskins as undersecretary for marketing and regulatory programs; Luke Lindberg as undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs; and Michael Boren as undersecretary for natural resources and environment. Fordyce is a fourth-generation soy, corn, and beef cattle farmer, who served as the administrator of the Farm Service Agency (FSA) during Trump's first term, and was formerly Missouri's director of Agriculture. During Trump's first term Lindberg served as chief of staff and chief strategy officer at the Export-Import Bank. He is currently the President & CEO of South Dakota Trade. Boren is a businessman, who has founded six companies, including Clearwater Analytics. Hoskins currently serves as counsel on the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, and previously spent four years at USDA during Trump's first term as the chief of staff for Marketing and Regulatory Programs, and senior advisor to the secretary.

McDonald’s Abandons Commitment to DEI in Supply Chain

McDonald’s is ending its commitment to diversity, equity and inclusion within its supply chain and “retiring setting aspirational representation goals,” per a letter to employees and suppliers made public Jan. 6. Despite the change, McDonald’s said it met its U.S. goal of spending 25% of its supplier budget with diverse-owned companies three years ahead of schedule, the letter says. The company said it will continue to report demographic information about its board, employees and suppliers in an annual report, according to the letter, which was signed by several executives, including EVP and Global Chief Supply Chain Officer Marion Gross. McDonald’s is also abandoning its DEI initiatives across the rest of the company in favor of a focus on “inclusion,” following a “comprehensive” civil rights audit it completed last year, per the letter. The company said it weighed several factors in making the change, including shareholder proposals, the 2023 Supreme Court decision that struck down affirmative action, and decisions by other companies that have re-evaluated their own programs.

Nevada Dairy Farm to Become Solar Facility

A land option agreement has been brokered between Rockview Family Farms and Balanced Rock Power to convert the 2,000-acre dairy farm, Ponderosa Dairy, into a solar energy facility. BRP will have the option to acquire the land — with the option period estimated to be between two and five years, according to a news release from the parties. The dairy farm would relocate. Due to rising operational costs and declining revenue, Rockview decided to come together with BRP to transform the farm altogether. Ponderosa Dairy has been struggling financially since 2023 due to fuel costs to transport, inflation and when their milk operator, Meadow Gold, lowered the price paid to Ponderosa by almost 15 percent. As the process moves forward, we are committed to working with Rockview to support job retraining programs for former dairy employees and partnering with the community on the project’s development and robust water conservation efforts.

Farms Retire Thousands of Acres in Water-Short Northeastern Colorado

With the help of $30M in state and federal funding, Colorado has retired some 10,000 acres of irrigated farm lands, with another 7,000 acres contracted for dry up. Farm communities on the Eastern Plains, under the gun to deliver water to Kansas and Nebraska, are poised to permanently retire 17,000 acres of land, with the help of $30 million in state and federal funding. From Wray, to Yuma to Burlington, growers are being paid to permanently shut off irrigation wells linked to the Republican River to ensure the vital waterway can deliver enough water to neighbors to the east, as required under the Republican River Compact of 1943. As of this month, ranchers had already retired 10,000 acres under the program, and the rest will be set aside in coming months. According to Colorado State University, it is one of the largest dry-ups of irrigated agricultural land in the West.

Oregon Housing Rules Could Lead to Worker Shortages

Oregon farmers say new farmworker housing rules could lead to workforce shortages. Farmworker advocates say the rules don’t address all of their concerns, while farmers say they can’t afford the changes. Oregon is updating farmworker housing rules that some advocates have said are alarmingly outdated. The requirements come after years of negotiations and include sweeping changes, such as mandating kitchens. The current rules don’t require farmworker housing to have a kitchen — though Oregon OSHA officials say most of the state’s registered labor housing does have some sort of kitchen facility. Other changes require houses to have at least 50 square feet per bed in sleeping rooms with bunk beds; currently the rules allow for 40 square feet per bed. The changes were made over several meeting sessions with farmers, and farm worker groups and were meant to strengthen health and safety standards in farmworker housing, while also giving employers time to adjust to the changes and financial resources, according to Aaron Corvin, a spokesperson for Oregon OSHA.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CST

U.S. Bioenergy Statistics at 2 p.m. CST

USDA Chickens and Eggs Report at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

Temperatures are cold enough to lend to widespread snow and mixed wintry precipitation across the Gulf of Mexico coast Tuesday into early Wednesday. Portions of southern Louisiana could see over six inches of snow by Tuesday evening. As this system advances east, southern Alabama and Georgia are also forecast to see a few inches of snow with freezing rain in the panhandle of Florida.

U.S. Dairy Producers Okay FMMO Changes

The USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service announced a final rule amending the uniform pricing formulas applicable in all 11 Federal Milk Marketing Orders. The final rule will be published in the Federal Register on Friday, January 17 (today). The amendment changes included returning the base Class 1 skim milk price formula to the higher-of the advanced Class 3 or 4 skim milk prices. The Class 3 and 4 make allowances are now 25.2 cents for cheese, 22 cents for butter, 24 cents for nonfat dry milk, and 26 cents for dry whey, all on a per-pound basis. USDA also removed the 500-pound barrel cheddar cheese prices from the Dairy Product Mandatory Reporting Program Survey. The skim milk composition factors are updated to 3.3 percent true protein, 6.0 percent other solids, and 9.3 percent nonfat solids, with a six-month implementation delay. The rest of the new rule will be effective June 1, 2025.

Tax Cut Expiration Would Damage U.S. Agriculture

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will sunset at the end of 2025 if Congress doesn’t extend the legislation or make the measures permanent. Successful Farming says provisions scheduled to end include a pass-through deduction for business owners, lower individual income tax rates, expanded tax brackets, and a higher estate tax exemption threshold. Other provisions in the Act have already lapsed or begun phasing out ahead of the expiration. “If these policies expire, that could put as many as 5.9 million U.S. jobs, $540 billion of U.S. employee compensation, and $1.1 trillion of U.S. GDP at risk,” says a new analysis from the consultancy firm EY. While the manufacturing sector would lose the most jobs, the report also says that agriculture, forestry, and the fishing and hunting industries could lose a combined 50,000 jobs, leading to lost wages and benefits totaling $3 billion and reduced economic activity of $10 billion.

Applications Open for Hong Kong Trade Mission

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service is accepting applications for its agribusiness trade mission to Hong Kong, scheduled for May 12-16, 2025. Current and potential U.S. exporters interested in participating must apply by January 30. “This mission offers exporters a vital platform to build connections and gain insights essential for success in Asia,” says FAS Administrator Daniel Whitely. “it’s an opportunity to showcase the quality and reliability of U.S. agricultural products to a thriving market.” In 2023, Hong Kong ranked as the 17th-largest global market for U.S. agricultural products, importing $1.5 billion worth of goods. As a free port and gateway to broader markets in other countries, Hong Kong provides significant opportunities for U.S. exporters across many sectors, including poultry, beef, pork, seafood, fresh fruits, and others. During the trade mission, participants will engage in tailored business-to-business meetings with buyers from Hong Kong, attend market briefings, and take part in site visits.

John Deere Expands Self-Repair Options

John Deere says it’s aiming at a long-standing issue that has been a major source of contention with equipment owners: the right to self-repair their equipment. In a release, the company says it’s made a “significant step forward in supporting the customers’ ability to maintain and repair their machines across the agricultural and construction industries.” The latest addition gives customers and independent repair technicians more ability to reprogram Deere’s electronic controllers. The company says it has a long-standing commitment to enhancing its customers’ ability to repair their equipment. “And consistent with that commitment, we’ve continued to deliver new and enhanced solutions designed to improve that experience,” says Denver Caldwell, vice president of aftermarket and customer service. “As our equipment has become more technologically advanced, so to have the repair tools needed to advance customer capabilities.” Caldwell also says this offering advances Deere’s goal of minimizing its customers’ unplanned downtime.

Veterinary Fellows Applications Open

The need for skilled veterinarians to safeguard the nation’s food supply has never been more urgent. However, the U.S. is experiencing a critical shortage of veterinarians specializing in livestock and poultry, threatening public health, food safety, and the economic vitality of agricultural communities. To support the development of future veterinary researchers, the Foundation for Food & Agricultural Research and the American Association of Veterinary Medical Colleges established the FFAR Veterinary Student Fellowship in 2018. This year, the fellowship features several updates to expand its scope, eligibility, and impact. Veterinary research is critical to solving challenges affecting nutritional security, environmental sustainability, and public health. However, most fellowships available to veterinary students are limited to traditional biomedical research. The fellowship is open to domestic and international students currently enrolled in a DVM or VMD degree program. Students don’t need prior research experience, and matching funds are not required for this program.

Graduate Students Receive W.D. Farr Scholarships

Conrad Schelkopf of Geneva, Nebraska, and Tyler Thomas of Baker City, Oregon, have each been awarded a $15,000 W.D. Farr Scholarship by the National Cattlemen’s Foundation. The annual scholarship program recognizes outstanding graduate students for their academic achievements, leadership, and commitment to the beef industry. The scholarship recipients will be recognized during CattleCon 2025, February 4-6 in San Antonio, Texas. Schelkopf got a bachelor’s degree in animal science at Colorado State University and is pursuing a doctorate in veterinary medicine at Kansas State University. Thomas earned bachelor’s and master’s degrees at Kansas State University. The scholarship was established by the National Cattlemen’s Foundation in 2007 and honors the successful career of W.D. Farr, a third-generation Colorado native, pioneer rancher, statesman, and banker known for his extraordinary vision. His dedication to improving agriculture resulted in significant changes in farming methods that have influenced farmers and ranchers throughout the nation.  

Friday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Housing Starts and Permits at 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. Industrial Production at 8:15 a.m. CST

Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics Weekly Soybean Harvest Update at 1 p.m. CST

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report at 2:30 p.m. CST

Weather

Scattered snow showers will drift through the Northern Plains and western Nebraska Friday. By Friday evening, scattered rain showers will overtake the Mississippi Valley and spread into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy; rather, up to 0.50 inch of rain is expected for these regions.

USDA Publishes Rule on Climate-Smart Agriculture Crops

The USDA announced the publication of an interim rule on Technical Guidelines for Climate-Smart Agriculture Crops Used as Biofuel Feedstocks. It establishes guidelines for quantifying, reporting, and verifying the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production of biofuel feedstock commodity crops grown in the U.S. The rule covers three feedstocks, including soy, corn, and sorghum. It also covers climate-smart practices that could reduce GHG emissions or sequester carbon, including reduced till and no-till, cover cropping, and nutrient management practices like using nitrification inhibitors. The interim rule also allows for the adoption of CSA practices both individually and in combination. This means farmers would have the flexibility to adopt the CSA practices that make sense for their operation while still being able to produce feedstocks with reduced carbon intensities under the rule. USDA is requesting public comment on the interim rule to help inform future revisions or additions. Go to regulations.gov.

Farm Action Applauds FTC Right to Repair Lawsuit

Farm Action reacted to the Federal Trade Commission’s lawsuit against John Deere over the right to repair. The Commission alleges John Deere is illegally driving up costs by forcing farmers to repair their equipment at authorized dealers. Farm Action’s Chief Strategy Officer Joe Maxwell says they applaud the FTC for taking this bold action to bring justice to farmers who have been stripped of the right to repair their own equipment. “That robs them of time and money as a result,” Maxwell says. “By withholding software information to diagnose and repair equipment, manufacturers are forcing farmers to often face long wait times and sometimes drive hundreds of miles to find an authorized dealer.” The long drives or wait times jeopardize hundreds of thousands of dollars in potential yields. Farm Action has led a nationwide Right to Repair campaign demanding that farmers are given the right to repair their own equipment.

Groups React to Packers and Stockyard Act Revision

American agriculture groups reacted to the final USDA poultry tournament rule under the Packers and Stockyards Act. “AFBF has long advocated for more stability for farmers who raise poultry under the tournament system,” says AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “We’ve long advocated for more stability in the sector and increased transparency in how farmers are paid.” The Organization for Competitive Markets and Competitive Markets Action is also pleased with the new rule. “We applaud USDA’s finalization of regulations like this that are long overdue,” says Taylor Haynes, President of the Organization for Competitive Markets. “We call on President Trump to keep these regulations intact.” The Alabama Contract Poultry Growers Association said in a release that they applaud USDA for finalizing their third rule reform. With so much outside of the control of contract poultry growers, it makes common sense to not base so much of their compensation on the tournament system.

NCGA Publishes Corn Competitiveness Report

The National Corn Growers Association published the 2025 Corn Competitiveness Report. It’s a roadmap for the Trump Administration and Congress to bolster the economic outlook for farmers and rural America. The report comes as corn growers are forecasted to face a third year of negative returns in 2025. “The U.S. is a corn-producing superpower, growing about one-third of the world’s corn and doing so more sustainably than anywhere else on Earth,” the report says. According to the report, the U.S. can “turbocharge” American competitiveness in several ways, including increasing global market access for U.S. corn, expanding the use of U.S. corn in ethanol, and strengthening farm risk management programs. The report provides specific examples of the ways how the U.S. can achieve these targets, including developing new foreign markets, passing legislation that will expand consumer access to higher ethanol blends, and extending the estate tax exemptions farmers depend on.

U.S. Agriculture Dominated by Family Farms

In 2023, roughly 86 percent of all farms were small family farms. A USDA report says these farms have a gross cash income below $350,000 and operate on 41 percent of all U.S. agricultural land. The family farms produced 17 percent of the total value of U.S. agricultural production. Large-scale family farms, those with gross cash income above $1 million, represented four percent of farms and accounted for 31 percent of agricultural land and 48 percent of the total value of agricultural production in 2023. Midsized family farms, with income between $350,000 and $999,999, represented six percent of farms and accounted for 18 percent of agricultural land and 18 percent of the total value in agricultural production. In total, family farms accounted for about 96 percent of total farms, 90 percent of agricultural land, and 83 percent of the total production value in 2023. The remaining four percent are non-family farms.

U.S. Leads Cage Free Egg Transition

Compassion in World Farming U.S. has released its latest Egg Track Report, which highlights the evolving landscape of higher-welfare egg production in North America. While the U.S. continues to lead at about 40 percent of egg-laying hens now in cage-free systems, Canada trails behind, with over 81 percent still confined in cages. Compassion says these cages are small wire structures that barely allow hens to spread their wings or engage in natural behaviors like wing flapping, perching, or dustbathing. This disparity underscores both the progress made and the challenges that remain in the transition toward a cage-free future. “North America’s egg producers are at the forefront of transforming the global egg market,” says Julia Johnson, U.S. Head of Food Business at Compassion in World Farming. The organization says cage-free is gaining momentum as the U.S. has seen steady growth in cage-free systems that now cover 124.8 million laying hens.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Export Sales Report at 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CST

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange Weekly Crop Update at around 12 p.m. CST

ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook -- Jan 2025 at 2 p.m. CST

Weekly Slaughter Report at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

Light snow showers will exit the eastern Midwest throughout the day, but a system will move through the Canadian Prairies, providing a band of moderate to heavy snow showers. By Friday, some leftover light snow showers from the Canadian Prairies system will graze the Northern Plains, putting down less than one inch of snow.

USDA Finalizes Third New Packers and Stockyards Regulation

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack announced the third installment in a series of regulatory reforms under the Packers and Stockyards Act. That, in combination with other updates, is intended to level the playing field for farmers raising chickens, turkeys, hogs, cattle, and sheep under contract or for sale to meat and poultry processing companies. The newest rule gives chicken farmers better insight into companies’ payment rates for their birds, will institute stability and fairness in what is commonly known as the “tournament system,” will provide farmers with key information on capital improvements the companies require farmers to make in order to keep or renew contracts and give farmers stronger leverage when companies don’t stick to the rules. “We’ve heard many stories of farmers who lost their life savings or went bankrupt because of an unfair system they entered into when they agreed to raise animals for a meat conglomerate,” Vilsack said.

NPPC Introduces the Pork Leadership Institute Class of 2025

The National Pork Producers Council and the National Pork Board are excited to announce the Class of 2025 for the Pork Leadership Institute. It’s a premier program dedicated to equipping pork producers with the knowledge and skills to lead the industry into the future. This year, 17 people from across the country were selected to join the program, and they represent a diverse group of leaders poised to drive innovation and advocacy within the pork sector. “As we step into 2025, ensuring the long-term success of America’s pork producers remains our top priority,” says Bryan Humphreys, NPPC CEO. “These individuals will serve as steadfast voices on the issues that matter most, including navigating legislative challenges to securing the freedom to operate.” The yearlong program is a comprehensive leadership development initiative featuring five intensive sessions that cover key areas of industry knowledge and advocacy. More information is available at nppc.org.

USDA Announces 2025 Safety-Net Program Enrollment Periods

The USDA announced the 2025 enrollment periods for key safety-net programs, including Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage, as well as Dairy Margin Coverage. Producers can submit applications to USDA’s Farm Service Agency for ARC and PLC for the 2025 crop year from January 21 to April 15. DMC applications for the 2025 coverage year can be submitted from January 29 to March 31. “Our safety-net programs provide critical financial protections against commodity market volatilities for many American farmers, so don’t delay enrollment,” says Zach Ducheneaux, FSA Administrator. “Even if you aren’t changing your program election for 2025, you still need to sign a contract to enroll.” He also says at 15 cents per hundredweight for $9.50 coverage, risk protection through Dairy Margin Coverage is a relatively inexpensive investment in a true sense of security and peace of mind. For more information, go to your local USDA Service Center.

Foreign Ownership of U.S. Ag Land Increases Between 2022-2023

The latest report on foreign ownership of U.S. ag land shows that 45.85 million acres of U.S. farmland were held by foreign investors in 2023. That represents 3.61 percent of total privately-held agricultural land in the U.S. This marks a 1.58-million-acre, or 3.6 percent, increase from 2022 and a five-million-acre (12.2 percent) rise since the American Farm Bureau’s last analysis in 2021. Canadian investors own the largest portion of foreign-held U.S. ag land with 33.5 percent, or 15.35 million acres of the total and 1.21 percent of all U.S. ag land. Following Canada, investors from the Netherlands, Italy, the U.K., and Germany round out the top five in that category. By state, Texas has the largest quantity of foreign-held U.S. agricultural land at 5.7 million acres, making up 3.6 percent of the state’s 1.58 million acres of privately-held agricultural land. Maine has the second-largest quantity at 3.5 million acres.

SCN Continuing Spread Renews Focus on the Threat

Researchers have been updating the map of known soybean cyst nematode distribution regularly since 2000, and with each update, the threat spreads. The latest update, spearheaded by Greg Tylka, a nematologist from Iowa State University, reveals 31 counties in ten states reporting SCN for the first time between 2020 and 2023. In Canada, ten rural municipalities in Quebec and three counties across Manitoba and Ontario reported SCN for the first time during that three-year span. In the U.S., SCN is in every county across Illinois and Iowa, the top two soybean-producing states. Just because an area doesn’t report any SCN doesn’t mean fields are free from infestation. “Fields may be infested for many years before the infestations are discovered,” Tylka added. The SCN Coalition encourages producers to develop a plan that includes testing their fields to know the numbers, rotating resistant varieties, rotating to non-host crops, and using a nematode-protectant seed treatment.

Corn Stocks Down While Soybean and Wheat Supplies Are Higher

Corn stored in all positions on December 1, 2024, totaled 12.1 billion bushels, down one percent from the same time last year. Of the total, 7.66 billion bushels are stored on farms, down two percent from the previous year. Off-farm stocks are at 4.41 billion bushels, two percent higher than the prior year. Soybeans in all positions on December 1, 2024, totaled 3.1 billion bushels, three percent above December 1, 2023. On-farm stocks were at 1.54 billion bushels, up six percent. Off-farm stocks were 1.56 billion, one percent higher than the previous December. All wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2024, was at 1.57 billion bushels, 10 percent above the previous year. On-farm stocks were at 467 million bushels, up 16 percent over December 2023. Off-farm stocks, at 1.1 billion bushels, were up eight percent from the previous year. All three commodities had higher disappearance levels than the prior year.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Consumer Price Index at 7:30 a.m. CST

EIA Petroleum Status Report including ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CST

Weather

It's an overall quiet day on Wednesday, though some lake-effect snow is still hanging on in the Great Lakes. A small system will move through southern Canada and bring more light snow to the Great Lakes Wednesday and especially Wednesday night. It will also bring in some warmer air for the next couple of days.

Treasury Department Releases Partial 45Z Guidance

The government released short-term guidance on accessing clean fuel tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. However, the announcement fell short of finalizing the program’s details. Farm Policy News says biofuel groups were hoping for more clarity on the tax credits for fuels that help combat climate change. The groups are hopeful that more complete guidance will provide a pathway for corn-based ethanol to expand its market as a sustainable aviation fuel feedstock. The Treasury Department says it provides further details on how to ensure fuels meet certain emissions-reductions criteria to access the subsidy and adds that a crucial climate model upon which the program relies will be available in the future. Reuters says the administration intends to release the program’s climate model this week, but it will not include adjustments for so-called climate-smart agricultural practices like no-till farming, which ethanol hoped it could use to meet the lifecycle emissions requirements.

Reaction to 45Z Tax Credit Guidance

U.S. agriculture groups waiting for the Treasury Department’s guidance on accessing the 45Z Tax Credit had mixed reactions to the announcement last Friday. Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor says the long overdue guidance is far from complete. “It still lacks critical details that are needed to help ensure that American biofuel producers and farmers can lead the world in clean fuel production,” she said. Geoff Cooper of the Renewable Fuels Association says, “The credit must allow for the inclusion of efficient farming practices, recognition of additional feedstocks and ethanol production technologies, and the ability for producers to secure their own carbon intensity values.” The National Corn Growers Association says the announcement was a “missed opportunity for growers.” Kurt Kovarik of Clean Fuels Alliance America says they look forward to working with members to evaluate the overdue guidance and forthcoming GREET model, which provides necessary carbon intensity scores for fuel producers.

2024 Tractor and Combine Sales Close 2024 in a Slump

According to new data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, sales of agricultural tractors and combines fell in the United States during December 2024 compared to the previous year. U.S. sales of agricultural tractors fell 11.3 percent, while combine sales fell 26.4 percent in December 2024 compared to December 2023. “December’s sales of ag tractors and combines follow patterns we saw throughout 2024, which reflects softness in the market,” says AEM Senior Vice President Curt Blades. “While the year has been marked by high interest rates and uncertainty throughout the overall ag economy, AEM is looking forward to the potential in 2025 and will continue to advocate for policies focused on positively impacting the industry.” Canada’s sales of ag tractors dropped 3.2 percent, while combines fell 37.3 percent in December when compared to the previous year. The biggest December drop was in 100-plus horsepower tractors, down 27 percent from last year.

NPPC Welcomes Line Speed Study Results

The USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service is extending the New Swine Inspection System increased line speed trials through May 15, 2025. The National Pork Producers Council called it a “win for efficiency” in feeding a growing population and alleviating supply issues. “Pork producers appreciate USDA’s thoughtful and thorough approach to maintaining increased packing capacity, giving us more opportunities to safely and more efficiently deliver our products to consumers,” says NPPC President Lori Stevermer. “As expected after more than three years of operating at increased line speeds, FSIS has confirmed that increased line speeds are not a leading factor in worker safety.” After completing a months-long study at six pork processing plants, line speeds were not the leading factor in worker musculoskeletal disorder risks. Without the increase in line speeds and the resulting decrease in packing capacity, some producers could have seen losses of $10 a head in early 2024.

Registration is Open for CattleCon 2025

While CattleCon 2025 is just around the corner, February 4-6 in San Antonio, Texas, it isn’t too late to register. Whether flying or driving, make plans to join thousands of cattlemen and women for the largest cattle industry event in the country. Among the schedule highlights, the Opening Session will include speaker Lieutenant Colonel Dan Rooney, a decorated F-16 fighter pilot, professional golfer, philanthropist, and best-selling author. Rooney says he’s called to “inspire people to help people.” Wednesday’s schedule begins with celebrating the Beef Quality Assurance Award winners. The special general sessions will be impactful for those looking to transition their businesses to the next generation or new ownership. The final day starts with CattleFax conducting its U.S. Global Protein and Grain Outlook session. Throughout CattleCon, the 32nd annual Cattlemen’s College includes educational sessions with industry leaders tackling a number of innovative topics. Register in advance at convention.ncba.org or in person on-site.

Autonomous Equipment Use to Grow 12 Percent

The autonomous harvester market size is expected to record a 12 percent annual growth rate between 2024 and 2032. Global Market Insights says the rise will be fueled by a surge in product launches and the melding of advanced technologies with farm management systems. Companies are producing new autonomous harvesting solutions, embedding state-of-the-art sensors, machine learning, and real-time data analytics. By seamlessly integrating with farm management systems, autonomous harvesters are enhancing crop health monitoring, optimizing harvest schedules, and streamlining resource management. The autonomous harvester industry is segmented by product, level of automation, technology, crop type, and region. The market share from the remote-controlled level of automation segment is expected to witness substantial growth through 2032. The surge is attributed to the rising demand for adaptable harvesters across diverse crops. In terms of crop type, the autonomous harvester market value from the fruits and vegetables segment will generate notable revenue from 2024-2032.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Producer Price Index at 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. Fed Beige Book at 1 p.m. CST

Weather

A little disturbance and some lake-effect snow will continue in the Midwest on Tuesday. Most other areas of the country will be dry. It is cold for most areas, though some warmer air in the High Plains is ready to move eastward and replace it for a couple of days later this week.

Markets Rally on Friday’s USDA Production Estimates

USDA released the combined World Agricultural Supply and Demond Estimates report along with its final Crop Production estimates for 2024 on Friday, and the market was quick to react. Corn futures soared over 15 cents to the highest levels since mid-June and soybean futures jumped to two-month highs. USDA slashed corn yield estimates by 3.8 bushels per acre (bpa) to 179.3 bpa. That put analysts on their heels after offering an average trade guess of 182.7 bpa. That shoves total production estimates back below 15 billion bushels, with a new projection of 14.867 billion bushels. As with corn, USDA levied unexpected cuts to soybean yield and production estimates. The average yield eroded to 50.7 bpa, versus the average trade guess of 51.6 bpa. Production stumbled from 4.56 billion bushels in December down to 4.36 billion bushels. USDA’s new outlook for wheat noted “slightly larger supplies and domestic use, unchanged exports, and marginally higher ending stocks.”

Cal-Maine Reports Higher Profits from Lower Egg Supplies

Cal-Maine Foods, the largest producer of eggs in the U.S., said strong consumer demand and supply constraints from the ongoing bird flu outbreak helped push up quarterly net sales by 82% over the previous year. Sales of conventional and specialty eggs both increased in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, according to Cal-Maine. Higher prices and lower feed costs also raised profits, the company said. Egg prices continue to break records with the ongoing spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. Commercial producers have reported more deadly outbreaks that have forced them to cull flocks to contain the spread. Bird flu outbreaks and facility fires in 2024 resulted in the loss of 39.9 million commercial table egg layers in 12 states, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Around 43% of losses occurred during the last two months of 2024, with one-third occurring in the peak demand period of December.

Trump Turning Attention to Panama Canal

President-elect Donald Trump continues to have his eyes on Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal, as he reiterated in a press conference Tuesday. Asked if he would rule out the use of military force when looking at expansion, Trump said he couldn't commit to that. Instead, he emphasized the importance of the Panama Canal, saying, "Look, the Panama Canal is vital to our country, it's being operated by China, China. And we gave the Panama Canal to Panama, we didn't give it to China." Responding to Trump, Panamanian officials said the canal's sovereignty is non-negotiable. Overall, more than 70% of all cargo passing through the Panama Canal is coming from U.S. ports or heading to U.S. ports. At least $8.9 billion worth of agricultural products were shipped out of the Mississippi River ports through the canal in 2023. In a typical year, about 600 million bushels (mb) of U.S. soybeans and 450 mb of corn move through the Panama Canal.

2025 Minnesota Beginning Farmer Tax Credit Applications Open

The Minnesota Department of Agriculture’s Rural Finance Authority is now accepting applications for the 2025 Beginning Farmer Tax Credit. This annual program is available to landlords and asset owners who rent or sell farmland, equipment, livestock, and other agricultural assets to beginning farmers. $4 million in funding has been made available for the 2025 Beginning Farmer Tax Credit program. Credits are funded on a first-come, first-serve basis, and applying early in the year to beat the application deadlines is heavily encouraged. Both the asset owners and beginning farmers must submit applications with lease and/or sale documentation to qualify for funding and hold their place in line. Applications can be made before sales close, if needed. For more information on the tax credits and application materials visit the https://www.mda.state.mn.us/bftc. Questions may be directed to Jenny Heck at jenny.heck@state.mn.us or (651) 201-6316.

Will $10 Billion in Economic Payments Offset Farm Income Losses?

Researchers are still projecting negative returns for grain producers even after assistance from Washington, highlighting the extent of the downturn in the agricultural industry. U.S. farmers and ranchers have access to $10 billion in economic aid as part of the farm bill extension passed at the end of 2024 to offset broad income declines. However, a new study from the University of Illinois says that the one-time payments likely won’t be enough to reverse deep profit losses for grain producers. While aid significantly reduces projected losses for 2024 many farmers will still see negative returns even after receiving the assistance, according to research estimates. Low commodity prices and high production costs have pressured farm margins and contributed to a widespread downturn in the agricultural economy. With Congress still divided on a farm bill, many producers demanded that an extension include economic aid to improve balance sheets and position themselves to secure loans.

Deere Lays Off 75 Workers at Iowa Tractor Plant

John Deere has laid off 75 workers at a manufacturing facility in Iowa. The job cuts are some of the first in 2025 after the company reduced its workforce by the thousands last year in response to slowing demand. Deere & Co. is laying off dozens of workers at a production plant in Ottumwa, Iowa, after struggling with tractor and equipment sales in recent months. Approximately 75 workers, or 13% of the plant’s workforce, will lose their jobs effective February 7, according to a recent WARN notice. The Ottumwa, Iowa plant just reopened after closing for the month of December due to sluggish demand for hay and forage equipment, the Des Moines Register reported. To remain globally competitive, Deere must continue making workforce adjustments as needed to our manufacturing footprint, according to a Deere spokesperson.

Monday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CST

Monthly U.S. Federal Budget at 1 p.m. CST

CFTC Commitment of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CST

Weather

Another burst of colder air has moved into the northern tier of the country on Monday behind a weekend system that produced scattered snow. Some showers are falling across the Gulf Coast while lake-effect snow continues for the Great Lakes. A little disturbance is also moving through the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains with some light snow for Monday as well.

New Contract Agreement Means no East or Gulf Coast Port Strike

The International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance announced an agreement on a new six-year contract. The agreement heads off the possibility of a port strike on the East and Gulf Coast ports. “We’re pleased with the tentative agreement, subject to ratification, which averts a work stoppage on January 15,” the two organizations said in a joint statement. “This agreement protects ILA jobs and establishes a framework for implementing technologies that will create more jobs while modernizing the ports.” The two sides have agreed to continue operating under the current contract until the ILA can meet with its full Wage Scale Committee and schedule a ratification vote for its members. The U.S. Maritime Alliance membership also has to ratify the agreement. “The adoption of automation and technology was the most contentious issue between the two parties,” says Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition. “We’re pleased with the agreement.”

Farmers May Shift Grain Acreage in 2025

Early indications are that U.S. farmers will increase planted grain acres this year despite continuing low prices. That’s according to a survey done by Farm Futures magazine. In the survey conducted in December, farmers in major corn-producing states seem swayed by an ongoing corn rally. However, more than half of the responding farmers plan no change in their crop mix. “In light of the corn market’s rally to six-month highs in late 2024 and early 2025, it makes sense that many farmers in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and other top-producing states plan to ramp up their corn planting this year,” says Senior Editor Bruce Blythe. One factor that could change those plans is the soybean future prices. “A key question is whether soybean acres increase or decrease, given the outlook for heavy global supplies and weak prices,” Blythe said. Farmers also voiced continuing concerns about getting a 2025 Farm Bill in place.

Climate-Smart Alliance Enrolls 1,300 farms

The Alliance to Advance Climate-Smart Agriculture at Virginia Tech enrolled over 1,300 farms representing more than 202,000 acres. It’s the first year of a landmark project that incentivizes agricultural producers in four states to adopt climate-smart practices. The project is a three-year national pilot program that aims to enroll 4,500 producers representing over 470,000 acres of farmland in Arkansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Virginia. At least 40 percent of the program’s participants are categorized by USDA as underserved farmers. Producers on farms of all sizes and commodities receive $100 an acre or animal unit to implement sustainable practices that can boost crop yields, build climate resistance, and protect soil, water, and air quality. “This program not only provides farmers with the financial support they need to transition to climate-smart practices but also sets a powerful precedent for what’s possible on a national scale,” says Tom Thompson, principal investigator on the project.

Disaster Assistance Application Deadline Approaching

The USDA’s Farm Service Agency is reminding producers, including dairy producers impacted by H5N1, that the deadline to apply for assistance through the ELAP Program is January 30. The Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees, and Farm-raised Fish Program funds are for losses due to specific adverse conditions that occurred in 2024. “The ELAP program provides an important financial safety net, helping our producers rebound from weather and disease impacts that are out of their control and not part of their operation’s ordinary risk profile,” says Zach Ducheneaux, FSA administrator. “These events threaten producers’ economic viability, so it’s important that USDA provide support.” ELAP provides relief to eligible producers to assist with losses that aren’t covered by other FSA disaster programs. Producers wanting to apply for ELAP assistance for calendar year 2024 should contact the FSA at their nearest USDA Service Center by January 30. To find a Service Center, visit farmers.gov. 

Groups Denounce Grizzly Bear Listing as Endangered Species

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and the Public Lands Council denounced the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s revised grizzly bear listing. They also pushed back against the agency rejecting state petitions to delist grizzly bears under the Endangered Species Act in the Northern Continental Divide and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystems. “This proposed rule and rejected delisting petitions do nothing other than move the goalposts for species recovery and deny sound science,” says NCBA Director of Government Affairs Garrett Edmonds. “Combining multiple distinct ecosystems into one giant population segment for a solitary apex predator further muddies the waters of what a species recovery looks like and only makes it harder for recovered species to be delisted in the future.” He also says by creating this brand-new barrier to recovery, the Biden administration is further weaponizing the Endangered Species Act and aiming it at rural communities on their way out the door.