Historic Rail Merger Application Filed

Two railroad companies submitted a comprehensive application to the Surface Transportation Board requesting approval to combine two major freight railroads into what would be the first transcontinental railroad in America. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern filed the request late last week, representing what could be a landmark development in the U.S. They’re proposing to create a unified rail network across the nation from coast to coast. Freight Waves reports that the almost 7,000-page application gives a specific explanation on how the combination would enhance competition throughout the freight industry while delivering public benefits to their customers, employees, and communities across the country. The merger agreement, which outlines that Union Pacific is acquiring Norfolk Southern, was put in place on July 29, 2025, setting the stage for the regulatory application. The move isn’t without critics, as it has drawn opposition from trade groups, unions representing engineers and track workers, and rival carrier BNSF.

USDA Has Lost 18 Percent of its Workforce

The USDA has received a lot of criticism for the way it handled reductions in its workforce after President Trump took office for his second term. Feedstuffs says, by some estimates, the department has lost as many as 21,000 employees through reduction-in-force measures, the Deferred Resignations Program, and through other means. The Office of the Inspector General released a report examining the staffing levels across the agency for the first half of this year. After analyzing available data, the OIG found that between January 12 and June 14, 2025, USDA lost a total of 20,306 employees during that time. That’s a loss of 18 percent of its total workforce of 110,384 people on January 11. Some agencies and states fared worse than others. Rhode Island had the most losses at 38 percent of its agency workforce. Kentucky had the fewest losses at 12 percent.

Reaction to Proposed Railroad Merger

The Fertilizer Institute released a statement in response to the application submission with the Surface Transportation Board requesting approval of a merger between the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern railroads. “The Fertilizer Institute relies heavily on rail and many shippers already operate with limited transportation options, increasing costs, and continued service challenges, all with a ‘take-it-or-leave-it’ approach from railroads,” the statement said. “Our priority is a rail system that provides reliable service and a balanced relationship between carriers and carload shippers, with accountability for systemic rail service failures and a rate review process that’s efficient, timely, and economical.” The Institute also said that while it’s still reviewing the filing, it’s “difficult” to see how any coast-to-coast merger would improve this imbalance or meet the standard set out in the Surface Transportation Board’s merger rules. “Railroads hold all the cards, and larger mergers only stack the deck,” the Institute added.

Callahan is the New Chief Agricultural Negotiator

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative welcomed Julie Callahan as its new Chief Agricultural Negotiator. The U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council applauded the news, saying, “She’s a seasoned professional with years of experience in sensitive trade negotiations and will continue to be a great advocate for U.S. agriculture.” Other agricultural groups like the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association reacted positively to the announcement. “President Trump has made it a priority to sign new trade deals and open new markets to high-quality American beef, and we look forward to working with Ambassador Callahan,” NCBA said. The National Sorghum Producers Council also lauded the move, noting that Callahan’s confirmation comes at an important moment for U.S. ag. “Her experience and leadership will be critical as we work to strengthen existing markets and pursue new opportunities for U.S. farmers,” said NSP Chair Amy France, a farmer from Kansas. 

Agricultural Exports Contributed $362.4 Billion to the U.S. Economy in 2023

U.S. farm and food product exports create a lot of value and generate economic activity within and outside of the agricultural sector. In general, increased exports of agricultural products lead to higher demand for transportation services, packaging materials, and the additional employment and activities required to ship exports. In 2023, the value of U.S. ag exports, comprising commodities and food products, reached $175.5 billion. In turn, these exports generated an additional $186.9 billion in economic activity. Exports of bulk, unprocessed commodities like soybeans and corn, valued at $74.2 billion, generated an additional $66.2 billion in economic activity in 2023. Including the value of the exports themselves, U.S. agricultural exports generated a total economic output of $362.4 billion in 2023. Put another way, every $1 of U.S. agricultural products exported generated a total of $2.06 of domestic economic activity, on average. 

U.S., Indonesia to Sign Trade Deal in January

Talks on a tariff and trade deal between Indonesia and the U.S. appeared to be on the brink of collapse earlier this month, but The Business Standard said the issues appear to finally be resolved. Indonesia’s chief trade negotiator said the two sides have agreed on “all substantial issues” for a tariff deal, paving the way for an agreement signing by the end of January. Indonesia’s senior economic minister said the main challenge was providing balanced market access for American products, and at the same time, market access for Indonesia into the U.S. market. “There is no factor that can hinder the signing of this Agreement on Reciprocal Trade,” said the minister. From January through October, trade between the two countries was worth $36.2 billion, with Indonesia carrying a $14.9 billion surplus. Data shows the U.S. is Indonesia’s second biggest export market. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Christmas Eve will feature a few reports such as Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CST, but otherwise expect a very quiet session with an early close at 12:05 p.m. CST.

Weather

Warm air continues to be the norm across most of the U.S. for Wednesday as more areas break records across the West, Plains, and South. Changes are coming though and a big storm system in the West will send a couple of systems across the north to end the year. Additionally, some showers may develop in the Midwest Wednesday.

Farmers Say $12B Aid Package Falls Short Amid Trade Strain

Many U.S. farmers say a newly announced $12 billion federal aid package will not be enough to offset mounting financial pressure caused by weak commodity prices, high input costs and lingering trade disruptions. The assistance, unveiled by the Trump administration, is designed as a temporary bridge for producers facing declining export demand and rising expenses. But farm groups and economists warn the payments may only partially cover losses, particularly for growers hit hardest by reduced overseas sales. Soybean producers remain among the most affected after years of reduced purchases from China, once the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans. Corn, wheat and specialty crop producers have also reported narrowing margins. USDA officials say the aid is intended to stabilize farm income while longer-term policy changes take shape. Still, some farmers argue the package does little to address structural trade challenges, including market access barriers and growing competition from foreign exporters.

USDA Signals No Additional Farm Aid Beyond $12B Package

The Department of Agriculture does not plan to issue additional emergency farm aid beyond the recently announced $12 billion assistance package, even as financial stress deepens across the farm sector, said Richard Fordyce, USDA's undersecretary for farm production and conservation. The payments are intended to help producers cope with low commodity prices, elevated production costs and reduced export demand tied to ongoing trade tensions. But economists and farm advocates warn many operations may continue to struggle without further support or stronger export growth. U.S. agriculture has traditionally posted trade surpluses, but rising imports and slowing exports have pushed the sector into a widening trade deficit. That shift has weighed heavily on farm income, particularly for row-crop producers dependent on foreign markets. USDA officials say budget constraints and existing authorities limit the department’s ability to offer more aid in the near term. Many farmers, however, say long-term relief will depend less on direct payments and more on expanded trade opportunities.

Mexico Begins Dumping Investigation on U.S. Pork Imports

Mexico has launched an investigation into U.S. pork imports, alleging that unfair pricing and government subsidies may be harming Mexican producers and processors. Mexico’s Secretariat of Economy said it initiated antidumping and countervailing duty probes after domestic pork producers, processors and trade groups complained that imports of U.S. hams and pork shoulders surged and were sold at less than fair value. The complaints allege the imports pressured domestic prices and hurt profitability. The ministry will examine alleged dumping and subsidies from 2024 and assess potential injury to the domestic industry from Jan. 1, 2022, through 2024. The subsidy investigation will review federal and state-level grants and payments. Under World Trade Organization rules, countries may impose duties if dumped or subsidized imports cause material injury. Any duties would apply prospectively after a preliminary finding. Mexico is the top export market for U.S. pork, importing about 1.15 million metric tons valued at nearly $2.6 billion in 2024.

'Product of USA' Meat Labeling Rule Takes Effect Jan. 1

A new USDA labeling rule takes effect Jan. 1, tightening standards for when meat, poultry and egg products may be identified as a product of the United States. Under the regulation, finalized in March 2024, companies may use labels such as “Product of USA” or “Made in USA” only if the animals were born, raised, slaughtered and processed in the United States. Meat from animals imported live for feeding or processing no longer qualifies. Products that are minimally processed may use qualified claims, such as noting they were sliced or packaged domestically using imported meat. The rule does not require companies to use U.S.-origin labels, but any firm that does must maintain records supporting the claim. USDA will generically approve labels without additional verification programs. The regulation applies only to domestic sales, not exports. Critics warn it could strain trade ties, particularly with Canada and Mexico, and discourage imports of live animals.

Lawmakers Divided on Whether Farm Bill Can Be Passed in 2026

Congressional Republicans plan to revive stalled farm bill negotiations in January after failing to pass a new measure by year’s end, extending uncertainty for farmers facing high costs, inflation and trade disruptions. House Agriculture Committee Chairman G.T. Thompson said he hopes to schedule a committee markup ahead of a Jan. 30 funding deadline, though he acknowledged it may be difficult to attach the bill to must-pass spending legislation. The delay means Congress will enter a third year without updating major agriculture policy. Lawmakers remain divided over whether a traditional five-year farm bill is still achievable. Thompson and Senate Agriculture Chairman John Boozman say progress remains possible, even in an election year. But some policy experts are skeptical, noting recent budget legislation sharply expanded farm subsidies while cutting food assistance, weakening the longstanding political link between the two. Congress extended the 2018 farm bill for another year in November, giving lawmakers until Sept. 30, 2026, to enact a replacement.

Dairy Farmers Earned More but Still Lost Money in 2024

Higher milk prices and lower feed costs helped Illinois dairy producers post positive cash returns in 2024, but operations continued to face negative economic returns, according to the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management Association. The average net milk price was $21.63 per hundredweight, up 79 cents from 2023, exceeding feed and cash operating costs of $17.43 but falling short of total economic costs of $23.56. On a per-cow basis, producers averaged $5,090 in milk returns compared with production costs of $5,499, resulting in a net loss of $409 per cow. Milk production averaged 23,530 pounds per cow, up 549 pounds from a year earlier. Feed costs declined to $11.64 per hundredweight, while nonfeed costs rose to a record $11.92. Despite improvement from 2023, returns have not exceeded total economic costs in the past decade. USDA projects lower milk prices in 2025 and 2026, suggesting continued negative economic margins for Illinois dairy farms.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

With USDA closed on Wednesday and Friday, the export sales report originally scheduled for Friday morning has been moved to Tuesday morning at 7:30 a.m. CST, which will include data for the week ending December 11. Also at 7:30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the delayed third quarter U.S. GDP report. Finally, at 2 p.m. CST, USDA will release their quarterly Hogs and Pigs inventory report.

Weather

Warm air continues to build across the middle of the country on Tuesday, with record highs falling from the Southwest into the Mid-South. Cold air up in Canada is setting up a boundary across the north and showers are moving from the West into the Northeast across this boundary. Areas in the North-Central U.S. will take a break Tuesday, though

Lawmakers Propose Additional Aid for Farmers

Leaders of the House Agriculture Committee say Congress may need to step in with at least $10 billion in additional aid for U.S. farmers, beyond the $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance Program recently announced by the Trump administration. House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., said the administration’s program, while helpful, does not go far enough to support all sectors of agriculture. The current package is largely aimed at row crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat, with about $1 billion set aside for other commodities. Thompson said industries including dairy, timber and specialty crops may require further assistance to help producers secure credit and remain viable into 2026. He emphasized that any supplemental aid should stabilize farms without replacing market forces. Meanwhile, USDA Undersecretary Richard Fordyce said budget constraints make a second aid package from the agency unlikely, leaving Congress as the primary option for more support. Senate Agriculture Committee leaders said they are waiting to see how far the current funds go before committing to a specific amount of additional aid.

Rollins, Chavez-DeRemer Pledge New Strategies to Reduce Welfare

Agriculture Secretary Brooke L. Rollins and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer on Friday signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at helping low-income Americans connect with education, training and long-term employment. The agreement formalizes cooperation between the Agriculture Department and the Labor Department to better align workforce programs, particularly for people receiving public assistance such as Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits. Officials said the partnership is designed to reduce reliance on government aid while strengthening the nation’s labor force. Rollins said the collaboration will expand access to career and technical education and improve pathways to steady work, aligning with the administration’s push to require work, training or volunteer activity for work-capable individuals receiving benefits. She said the effort reflects a broader goal of moving people “from the sidelines to the workforce.” Chavez-DeRemer said the Labor Department is focused on connecting Americans with “sustainable jobs” and promoting self-sufficiency. She described the agreement as a way to streamline services and better serve workers seeking opportunity.

Federal Judge Orders USDA to Extend SNAP Food Aid Deadline

A federal judge has ruled that the U.S. Department of Agriculture must give states more time to implement new restrictions on Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits tied to immigration status. U.S. District Judge Mustafa Kasubhai on Monday granted an injunction extending the compliance deadline from Nov. 1 to April 9, finding that the USDA’s guidance had created confusion and potential financial strain for state governments. The lawsuit was brought by 21 Democratic-led states and the District of Columbia, which argued that USDA instructions improperly excluded lawful permanent residents, including asylees and refugees, from eligibility. The USDA had maintained that the original grace period had expired and any misunderstanding was due to misinterpretation by states. Kasubhai disagreed, saying the approach was inconsistent with legal precedent and likely to cause harm. The new restrictions stem from a law signed this year that tightens SNAP eligibility based on immigration criteria. 

Illinois Agriculture Chief Says Trade Policies Hurt Farmers

Illinois Department of Agriculture Director Jerry Costello II is criticizing current federal trade policy and aid for farmers, saying it falls short amid ongoing tariff-related market disruptions. Costello said the recently announced $12 billion “Farmer Bridge Assistance Program” is insufficient compared with a $23.1 billion package offered in response to trade disputes during the previous administration. “Tariffs are crushing farmers again,” Costello said, noting that steep tariffs on exported soybeans and other commodities have shrunk overseas markets and depressed prices. He also pointed to rising input costs tied to tariffs on fertilizer, machinery and other farm goods. Under the USDA program, about $11 billion is earmarked for row crop producers, with the remaining $1 billion for other commodities. Payments are based on acreage and estimated costs. Costello warned that long-term financial pressure could drive younger farmers out of the industry and undermine future agricultural production in Illinois. 

SNAP Purchase Limits Approved for 2026

USDA has approved stricter limits on what Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program recipients can buy, with changes set to take effect in 2026 in multiple states. Under the waivers, states can redefine “food for purchase” to exclude items such as candy, soda, energy drinks and other products deemed unhealthy. Six states — including Hawaii, Missouri, North Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia — received USDA approval this week, joining others that have already adopted similar rules under the “Make America Healthy Again” initiative. Federal officials, including Agriculture Secretary Brooke L. Rollins, say the changes aim to align SNAP with nutritional goals and reduce diet-related chronic illnesses. Implementation details will vary by state, with some plans already targeting specific categories like sugary beverages. The effort has sparked debate among advocates and critics over the balance between nutritional policy and food access for low-income households.

First-Ever Bark Beetle Intercepted at Detroit Airport

U.S. Customs and Border Protection agriculture specialists have intercepted a species of bark beetle never before found at a U.S. port of entry, highlighting ongoing threats to American crops and forests. The tiny insect, identified as Ctonoxylon spinifer Eggers, was discovered in a piece of dried bark a passenger carried through Detroit Metropolitan Airport en route to Texas. The bark and beetle were seized during a routine inspection in February and confirmed by USDA officials in October. Experts say the Afrotropical beetle tunnels within bark layers, a behavior that can make it a potential threat to trees such as figs and olives, important in some U.S. agricultural regions. “This first-time bark beetle interception is significant because many species are tree-destroying pests,” said Port Director Fadia Pastilong, noting the find underscores the importance of vigilant inspections. The passenger, who declared the bark, was released after the material was confiscated. Authorities continue to monitor for invasive species at entry points nationwide.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Monday will be a quiet day for reports to start what will very likely be a muted Holiday trading week as well. USDA will release another catch-up export sales report at 7:30 a.m. CST, with data as of December 4. Later in the morning, USDA will also release their export inspections report as of last Thursday, December 18.

Weather

Very warm temperatures are spreading across the vast majority of the U.S. on Monday. Some showers will be found on the northern edge of that warm from the Pacific Northwest through the Midwest as some disturbances ride along a northern boundary.

China Halfway to Soybean Purchase Commitment

China has secured at least seven million tons of U.S. soybeans after multiple purchases during the past two weeks. Bloomberg said that puts the Asian country over halfway to meeting the 12-million-ton purchase agreement it made with the Trump administration. People familiar with the deals say the total comes from purchases by Sinograin, the state company in charge of managing China’s strategic grain stockpiles. The company purchased about two million tons in the last week alone, with buys continuing into this week. Bloomberg reports that at least seven soybean cargoes were purchased, totaling over 400,000 tons. Officially, the USDA has reported under four million tons of soybeans sold to China, but industry insiders say the total is likely much higher. Unfortunately, prices will likely stay under pressure, even though U.S. sellers and Chinese buyers expect the target to be met. It’s unknown exactly when the beans will ship.  

Ethanol Production Hits Another Record High

The Energy Information Administration said ethanol output jumped to a new record high in the seven days ending on December 12. U.S. production rose to an average of 1.131 million barrels a day, which the agency said is up from 1.105 million the previous week and eclipsed a record set two weeks earlier. In the Midwest, output rose to an average of 1.078 million barrels a day, up from 1.046 million the prior week. That was all the gains for the week. East Coast production was steady at 11,000 barrels a day, on average, for the fourth-straight week. West Coast output held steady at 9,000 barrels a day. Gulf Coast production dropped by 4,000 barrels to an average of 28,000 per day, and Rocky Mountain output dropped by 2,000 barrels a day to 9,000. Inventories during the week fell to 22.353 million barrels.

Thank You Farmers Project Hits $8 Million Milestone

When Culver’s launched the "Thank You Farmers Project" in 2013, the goal was simple. The company wanted to support the agricultural community and show gratitude to the farmers who feed the country. That mission has always included uplifting agricultural education and supporting caretakers of our land to ensure a viable food supply for years to come. Culver’s was excited to announce that the project hit a record milestone of $8 million in total donations since the program began. In 2025 alone, thanks to the generosity of guests and local fundraising efforts, more than $1.5 million was raised to benefit the future of U.S. agriculture. “Behind every meal we serve in our restaurants are local hardworking farmers,” said Alison Demmer, Culver’s senior public relations manager. “We’re proud to work alongside our guests to create something like this that is truly meaningful.”

American Lamb Board Releases Annual Report

In 2025, the American Lamb Board continued its mission to grow consumer demand, expand strategic partnerships, and invest in research and education to strengthen the long-term competitiveness of American lamb. Across marketing, research, education, and industry outreach, ALB programs reached consumers, retail, and foodservice customers and influencers nationwide, while providing new tools and opportunities for producers. The highlights included growing consumer demand through Lamb Jam, seasonal campaigns, recipes and cooking classes, retail promotions, events, and social media engagements. Other highlights of 2025 included improving product quality and consistency, increasing productivity and year-round supply, and expanding checkoff engagement. “Demand is rising, and the challenge is clear: we must expand the domestic supply to meet the growing interest,” said ALB Chair Jeff Ebert. “This is an exciting time to be part of the industry, and we have every reason to be proud of how far we’ve come.” ALB is very optimistic about the opportunities ahead. 

Diversification Drives Corn Growth, Cushions Soybean Declines

The U.S. agricultural export scenario experienced a transformation in 2025, with diversification of export destinations emerging as an important factor for both the corn and soybean markets. Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture says the biggest change in U.S. soybean exports between 2024 and 2025 has been the diversification of destination markets. While 2025 soybean export levels are tracking below 2024 and aren’t likely to reach last year’s volumes even with November and December data, the diversification has helped moderate what could have been a far more severe reduction. Despite reductions in corn purchases from top markets like Mexico, Japan, and Colombia, overall export volumes have already exceeded 2024 levels, even with data only available through early November. This shows diversification can not only cushion declines but also drive growth with favorable market conditions. 

Lawsuit Putting Poultry Grower Contracts in Jeopardy

Tyson Foods has told poultry growers within the Illinois River watershed that they may not have their contracts renewed next year. That could affect growers in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas and cause significant economic fallout in the region’s biggest agricultural sector. The watershed covers more than one million acres across both states. Yahoo Finance said that the area includes parts of northwest Arkansas, where poultry production is a pillar supporting the local economy. Poultry actually accounts for over half of Arkansas’s cash receipts and supports over 175,000 direct and indirect jobs statewide. The potential contract reductions are tied to a long-running lawsuit filed by the State of Oklahoma in 2005 against Tyson Foods and other poultry companies over alleged pollution in the Illinois River Watershed. Oklahoma says the phosphorus and bacteria from the land application of poultry litter contaminated rivers, streams, and groundwater. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

Friday will be a fairly active day for USDA reports, beginning in the morning at 10 a.m. CST with the Food Expenditure and Food Price Outlooks from ERS. In the afternoon, USDA will release their December Cattle on Feed report as well as their monthly Chicken and Eggs report, both at 2 p.m. CST. Finally, the week will wrap up with the release of CFTC's Commitments of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CST, including futures and options positions as of December 9th, 2025.

Weather

A strong system that moved through the middle of the country on Thursday is pushing off the East Coast on Friday. Some breezy winds, light snow, and cold temperatures are left behind the system for the Midwest Friday. Another system is moving into the Canadian Prairies where most of the precipitation will be located. Some snow may seep south of the border across the Northern Plains, and strong winds will again be an issue, but not nearly to the same degree as they were on Thursday.

Railroad Merger Loses Union Support

A proposed merger worth up to $85 billion between the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern railroads lost the support of two unions that represent over 50 percent of the affected workers. The AP said the employees are concerned the merger will eliminate a large number of jobs and lead to significant safety concerns. Significant disruptions because of the merger would also raise shipping rates and consumer prices. The deal would create the first transcontinental railroad in U.S. history, and the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division are among the deal’s most prominent critics. They aren’t alone, joining a coalition including the American Chemistry Council, a number of agricultural groups, and competing railroad BNSF in raising concerns that the merger will hurt competition. The Surface Transportation Board will take input to determine whether the arrangement is in the public interest. 

Feedback on USDA Reorganization is Mostly Negative

The Agriculture Department’s plan to relocate thousands of staff members and consolidate dozens of offices has received overwhelmingly negative feedback. Government Executive reports that employees, lawmakers, and stakeholders say it could lead to “brain drain” due to a loss of employees not wanting to relocate, which may mean significant disruptions in farmer-support programs. The agency has only ten percent of its workforce currently in the Washington, D.C., area, but the department wants to relocate about 2,600 of those employees to new locations. USDA intends to move a large number of employees to five regional hubs around the country. It will also slash other regional offices around the U.S. and consolidate many support functions. “Stakeholders worry that the cost-cutting measures will prioritize efficiency over service quality, which would undermine public trust in the agency,” Government Executive said. 

Ag Equipment Sales are also Falling Outside the U.S.

The U.S. isn’t the only country seeing a decline in ag equipment purchases. Brazil saw a double-digit percentage drop in tractor sales in November. That’s according to data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. Total tractor shipments in the country were down five percent on an annual basis last month. Sales of high-horsepower and low-horsepower tractors were down 15 percent year over year in November, which followed another ten percent decline in October. High-horsepower tractor sales in Brazil plunged 28 percent in November and are down 15 percent year to date, according to a report from Truist Securities. Deere said it expects flat year-over-year tractor and combine sales in South America, AGCO said it expects modest growth in South America in 2026, and CNH said industry volumes will be flat. “Demand remains uncertain, due in part to the U.S.-China trade agreement, high interest rates, and strong crop yields,” Truist added.

NCGA Announces Yield Contest Winners

The National Corn Growers Association announced the winners of the 2025 Yield Contest. With growing conditions that led to a projected record corn crop, this year’s participants delivered impressive yields, once again showcasing the ingenuity of U.S. agriculture. In the 61st year of the contest, it saw almost 7,800 entries from farmers in 47 states. Entrants across the ten production categories had verified yields averaging 269 bushels an acre. The highest yield for this year came out of Charles City, Virginia, at 572.25 bushels per acre in Class H (strip-till irrigated) for David Hula. “The Yield Contest is really about finding out what this crop is capable of,” said NCGA President Jed Bower. ‘’And as corn farmers, we get to show what we’re made of too.” A complete list of the winners can be found at ncga.com/YieldContest. Winners will be honored at the 2026 Commodity Classic in San Antonio, Texas, February 25–27. 

RIPE Excited About Funds for Regenerative Agriculture

Rural Investment to Protect our Environment, or RIPE, celebrated the recent announcement of the $700 million Regenerative Pilot Program. The program is meant to help American farmers adopt practices that improve soil health, enhance water quality, and boost long-term productivity, while fortifying U.S. supplies of food, fuel, and fiber. “RIPE is excited about USDA’s commitment to scaling regenerative agriculture,” said Trey Cooke, RIPE Executive Director. “The program aligns with RIPE’s approach, removing barriers to effective conservation practices and engaging farmers from across the country in conservation.” Cooke also added that they look forward to seeing the details of the program and helping ensure this investment in conservation and the pledge to U.S. producers is successful. RIPE is a bipartisan, producer-led organization committed to scaling voluntary agriculture stewardship. The group believes agricultural producers and communities benefit from a system that aligns economic incentives with voluntary practices that enhance the soil, water, and climate. 

CattleCon 2026 has Multiple Don’t-Miss Events

CattleCon 2026 is rapidly approaching, and there will be plenty of “don’t-miss” events on the schedule. The largest beef and cattle industry event of the year will be in downtown Nashville, Tennessee, February 3-5. While CattleCon officially begins on Tuesday, February 3, arrive early for the D.C. Issues Update and NCBA Regional Meetings on Monday, February 2. During the D.C. Issues session, NCBA Senior Vice President of Government Affairs Ethan Lane will share insights about NCBA’s policy work. NCBA Region Meetings give cattle producers the opportunity to engage in insightful conversations regarding significant local matters that could potentially influence operations. A new event at CattleCon 2026 is the Prime Cut Awards, which features the National Environmental Stewardship Award and the Beef Quality Assurance Awards. A Sustainability Forum on Thursday, February 5, focuses on legacy in action. For more information and to register and reserve housing, visit convention.ncba.org. 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Reports for Thursday include weekly export sales from USDA at 7:30 a.m. CST, which will cover the week ended Nov. 27. At the same time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index report for November. Later in the afternoon, USDA will also release their weekly livestock slaughter report at 2 p.m. CST.

Weather

A storm system continues to develop near the U.S.-Canada border in northern Minnesota on Thursday morning. The cold front to the system will be pushing eastward across the country throughout the day, with scattered showers and some thunderstorms for the Midwest down to the Gulf. Strong winds around the system may create some damage and coincide with snow across the far north to produce blizzard conditions. The next system is quick on its heels, moving into the Pacific Northwest.

Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act Awaits Presidential Signature

The House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act of 2025. The legislation provides schools with the flexibility to offer flavored and unflavored whole and 2% milk options, helping to make sure children get the nutrition they need to grow, thrive, and succeed in the classroom. “I’ve worked for a decade to restore whole milk to our school cafeterias, which have been limiting healthy choices for students, but that changes today,” said bill author GT Thompson of Pennsylvania. “Whole milk is an essential building block for a well-rounded and balanced diet, and students should have the option to choose the milk they love.” Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, said, “By restoring schools’ ability to serve whole and reduced-fat milk, dairy farmers and their cooperatives can further expand their positive impact in school lunchrooms and provide more nutritious outcomes for the next generation.”  

Land O’ Lakes Gives $1 Million in Grants

Land O’ Lakes, Inc., one of the nation’s largest farmer- and member-owned cooperatives, announced a $1 million hunger relief investment aimed at supporting rural communities ahead of the holiday season. Grants will go to 15 Feeding America partner food banks across Land O’ Lakes member-owner and employee footprints, as well as to Feeding America. This commitment effectively doubles the cooperative’s 2025 hunger relief impact, building on almost four million meals provided this year. Food banks nationwide report increased demand from their local communities, and the need can rise even further during the holiday season. “While we support these efforts throughout the year,” said Land O’ Lakes president and CEO Beth Ford,” we’re proud to double down on our hunger contributions during the holiday season.” Rural food banks and food shelves, in particular, face higher rates of food insecurity and have to meet the needs across a larger geographic area. 

Milk Producers Ready to Supply Schools with Whole Milk Options

Gregg Doud, the president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, said it’s hard to overstate the significance of Congress passing the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act. Not only does it represent major progress in improving the nourishment of American schoolkids, but it also says that persistent, long-term effort can still bring about bipartisan success in Congress. It was in 2012 that federal nutrition rules took whole and 2% milk out of school meals programs, and dairy farmers and their cooperatives pointed out the many flaws in that decision. The next step, after a presidential signature, is implementation. “We pledge our fullest support to federal officials and school districts across the nation to help with implementation of this important legislation,” said Doud. “Congress made a positive difference in the lives of schoolkids, and we are thrilled to be a part of it.”

USDA Launches Final Phase of 2025 Ag Resource Management Study

Beginning later this month, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will spend several months gathering information about farm economics from farmers and ranchers throughout the U.S. The agency will be conducting its third and final phase of the 2025 Agricultural Resource Management Survey. “This data will help inform decisions on local and federal policies and programs that affect farms and farm families,” said Agricultural Statistics Board Chair Lance Honig. The 2025 survey includes a version of the questionnaire that focuses on farm costs of production and expenditures for cotton, hogs, and broiler producers. “In February, our interviewers will begin reaching out to those farmers who have not yet responded,” Honig said. “We appreciate their time and are here to help them with the questionnaire so that their information will continue to support sound agricultural decision making.” Information provided to NASS is kept confidential, as required by federal law. 

Nebraska Ethanol Plants Reach Carbon Milestone

Green Plains Inc. has reached a major operational milestone at its three Nebraska ethanol plants. The company confirmed that biogenic carbon from all three locations is now being captured and permanently stored. The captured emissions are transported by the Trailblazer pipeline and are taken to southeastern Wyoming and injected at Tallgrass’s carbon storage hub, completing an end-to-end carbon capture and sequestration chain. The company says this achievement marks an important step for both the company's operations and the broader Nebraska bioeconomy, positioning low-carbon ethanol more competitively in regulated fuel markets. With the capture infrastructure now fully operational, Green Plains plans to advance a broader decarbonization strategy while targeting long-term performance gains. Management views carbon capture as a core lever for future growth in an increasingly carbon-constrained fuel market.

American Sheep Producers Issue Call to Action

America’s sheep industry faces increasing pressure from imported lamb, which threatens the stability and the future of domestic producers. ASI members have made it clear that immediate federal action is critical to restoring fair competition and protecting America’s sheep producers. To address this, the American Sheep Industry Association is working diligently to secure a Section 201 trade case investigation, a vital step toward leveling the playing field for U.S. sheep producers. They’re asking all sheep producers and industry stakeholders to contact their U.S. senators, along with their agriculture and trade staff, and urge them to sign the “Dear Colleague” letter supporting the Section 201 investigation into imported lamb. It’s important to take action as signatures must be received by this Friday, December 19. This effort is being led by Congressman Doug LaMalfa (R-CA), Chairman of the Western Caucus in Congress. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Wednesday looks to be a quiet day for reports but the Energy Information Administration will release their weekly Petroleum Status report at 9:30 a.m. CST including last week's ethanol production and stocks.

Weather

Warm air continues to spread across the country on Wednesday, melting some of the snowpack in the Midwest. A big system is in the Pacific Northwest and will move eastward into the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains Wednesday. Strong winds and scattered showers are forecast. Some snow near and across the border into Canada could make for some blizzard conditions at times into Thursday.

Mexico Agrees to Meet Water Treaty Obligations

The U.S. and Mexico reached an understanding on meeting the current water obligations of American farmers and ranchers and for Mexico to repay the water deficit in Texas as part of the 1944 Water Treaty. This agreement extends to the current cycle and the previous cycle’s water deficit. “Farmers from the southern U.S. are reeling from the uncertainty caused by a lack of water,” said Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins. “I thank Mexico for their willingness to abide by the treaty and return to good standing with their past obligations.” She also said Mexico has delivered more water in the last year than in the previous four years combined. With the understanding, Mexico has agreed to release 202,000 acre-feet of water to the U.S., with deliveries expected to begin this week. Timely repayment of the outstanding deficit from the previous water cycle is also understood by Mexico. 

HPAI Found in Wisconsin Dairy Cattle

The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service confirmed that it detected highly pathogenic avian influenza in a dairy cattle herd in Wisconsin. The confirmation marks the first known case of HPAI in cattle in Wisconsin. APHIS is working with the Wisconsin Agriculture Department to conduct additional on-farm investigations, testing, and epidemiological data collection to better understand the detection and prevent further disease spread. The detection doesn’t change USDA’s eradication strategy, with the agency pointing out that biosecurity is still the key to mitigating the risk of disease introduction or spread between farms. The detection doesn’t pose a risk to consumer health or affect the safety of the commercial milk supply. The Food and Drug Administration says it remains confident that pasteurization inactivates the virus and that the commercial, pasteurized milk supply is safe. The CDC said HPAI viruses circulating in birds and dairy cattle pose a low risk to the public.

CA Man Convicted in $5 Million Canola Theft

Shawn Sawa, formerly of Clovis, California, was sentenced to 18 months in prison for his role in a fraud scheme that stole millions of dollars’ worth of canola. U.S. Attorney Eric Grant announced that the canola, stolen from international food processors, was intended to be used for livestock feed. A Department of Justice news release said that from 2015 to 2017, Sawa and co-defendant Richard Best stole $4.8 million worth of canola from international food processors, and then sold the grain for a windfall. The two carried out the scheme through Best’s now-defunct train-to-truck transloading company, Richard Best Transfer, Inc. A transloading company transfers commodities from one mode of transportation to another mode. The victim food processors sent hundreds of thousands of tons of their canola to RBT for delivery to their customers. Best pleaded guilty in October and faces a maximum statutory penalty of 20 years and a fine of $250,000.

2026 Biofuel Quotas Likely Not Coming This Year

The Trump administration isn’t likely to finalize the 2026 biofuel-blending quotas before the end of 2025. Three sources close to the situation told Reuters that this will only extend uncertainty over a policy closely watched by rival oil and farm sectors. The Environmental Protection Agency has scheduled meetings with industry stakeholders on the quota rule in early 2026, which is a sign the final rule won’t be announced until next year. The EPA declined to give a specific timeframe on when a final rule could be reached, noting that it’s still reviewing public comments on the volume requirements. A delay in finalizing the mandate is troublesome because fuel makers, farmers, and commodity traders use them to lock in supply contracts, hedge the volatile crop and energy markets, and justify investments in new production capacity. Earlier this year, the EPA proposed raising total renewable fuel requirements for 2026 and 2027.

JBS Closing California Plant

JBS announced plans to close one of its facilities outside of Los Angeles, California. Cattle Range Dot Com said the plant prepares beef for sale in U.S. grocery stores. The world’s largest meat company announced the closure late last week. JBS is closing down its Swift Beef Company facility in Riverside, California, on February 2, which will eliminate 374 jobs. This particular plant doesn’t actually slaughter cattle but instead processes beef for sale in grocers’ meat cases, which means the facility isn’t shutting down due to low cattle supplies driving up the costs of paying for cattle ready for slaughter. Bloomberg said the USDA lowered its estimates for cattle prices through 2026, citing reduced slaughter plant capacity into early next year. Tyson, the country’s biggest meatpacker, said it will end operations at a beef plant in Nebraska and cut operations at a plant in Texas down to a single shift. 

Tractor and Combine Sales Drop in November

According to the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, the total sales of agricultural tractors in the U.S. dropped almost 20 percent, while combine sales fell 35 percent compared to November 2024. Canadian sales of combines increased 25 percent in November compared to the same time last year, while sales of agricultural tractors dropped seven percent in the same time frame. “This month’s numbers reflect the continued economic pressure farmers have been navigating for several months,” said Association of Equipment Manufacturers Senior Vice President Curt Blades. “While we’re seeing a short-term slowdown in sales, equipment manufacturers remain focused on supporting farmers with the tools and technologies that deliver efficiency and long-term value.” He also said as the agricultural economy moves into 2026, AEM will continue watching market conditions closely and remains confident in the industry’s underlying strength.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Other than the potential for flash export sales announcements from USDA in the morning at 8 a.m. CST, macroeconomic reports for Tuesday include the U.S. employment report for November, including the unemployment rate along with wage data at 7:30 a.m. CST.

Weather

A system is moving through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday, but it is producing very little precipitation. The system is producing some strong winds in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, though, which could be damaging. But those winds are also spreading some very warm air into and throughout the country.

Quarterly Economic Condition Report for U.S. Agriculture

The Farm Credit Administration received its quarterly report on economic conditions affecting agriculture and an update on the overall performance of the Farm Credit System. Despite a turbulent year with tariffs and trade, the U.S. economy is expected to end 2025 on a relatively stable footing. In agriculture, producers face a mixed outlook. Bumper crops have created marketing challenges amid a fluid trade environment and a shortage of storage. Grain and soybean producers continue to experience margin compression from low commodity prices and rising fertilizer costs. Meanwhile, strong prices and low cost of feed are boosting livestock profitability. Although liquidity and solvency positions remain relatively strong in the farm sector, continued low or negative profitability for grain producers could erode financial resilience heading into the 2026 loan renewal season. The System reported solid financial results through the first nine months of 2025. Loan growth continued at a modest pace. 

Rollins Challenges California Ag Land Redistribution Plan

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins sent a letter to California Governor Gavin Newsom demanding that the state abandon a proposal that would redistribute land based on race, ethnicity, and national origin. The letter comes as the California Land Equity Task Force considers a draft proposal that would encourage and facilitate land transfers and financial assistance exclusively to certain minorities. “Those proposed policies would grievously hurt farmers, ranchers, and agricultural producers,” the Secretary said in the letter. “All people should be treated equally, and what California has proposed directly targets those who work from sunrise to well past sunset, faithfully tending our nation’s land and livestock.” In 2022, the state’s legislature established the task force to develop recommendations on how to equitably increase access to minority farmers and tribes. The task force is currently reviewing a draft that recommends action that would only apply to certain minorities. 

TFI Applauds House Passing the PERMIT Act

The Fertilizer Institute praised the House of Representatives for passing HR 3898, the Promoting Efficient Review for Modern Infrastructure Today (PERMIT) Act. It’s legislation designed to bring clarity, consistency, and predictability to the federal Clean Water Act permitting process. “Permitting reform is essential to strengthening America’s fertilizer supply chain,” said TFI President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch. “For new phosphate and potash mining projects to nitrogen production and modern distribution facilities, today’s permitting process is too often defined by years’-long delays and significant uncertainty.” He added that the PERMIT Act provides the guardrails needed to keep critical projects moving while maintaining protections for water quality and natural resources. TFI members routinely face permitting delays for new and expanded fertilizer production operations that stretch into decades and cost tens of millions of dollars. The delay impacts the farmers who rely on a stable, affordable, and abundant supply of fertilizer. 

What Americans Think of the Dietary Guidelines

Every five years, the Dietary Guidelines are updated and released, based on current recommendations made by a scientific advisory committee. The guidelines were due to be updated this year, but are now being pushed to early 2026. Farmdoc from the University of Illinois used data from a Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey to help find out what consumers think about the DGA. Overall, consumers generally agreed to a strong extent with most of the recent recommendations. Over 50 percent strongly agreed with the recommendations to eat all types of vegetables and to choose food and beverages with less added sugars. The recommendations most likely to see dissent were eating fish or seafood twice a week and moving to low-fat or fat-free dairy milk or yogurt. As far as who should be developing the recommendations, over 90 percent of respondents strongly believe it should be nutrition experts, HHS, USDA, and medical experts.

U.S. Corn Exports Well Above Last Year’s Pace

A USDA report says exports of corn continued their torrid pace while soybean shipments remained well behind 2024 year-end totals during the week ending on November 13. The report contains the latest export sales data as USDA continues playing catchup after the government shutdown that ended a month ago. Corn exports from the start of the marketing year through mid-November totaled 16.23 million metric tons, which the agency says is up 74 percent year over year. Commitments from overseas buyers to purchase U.S. corn were up 30 percent annually to 40.72 million metric tons. Soybean exports plunged 41 percent to 10.048 million metric tons. USDA said promises to purchase U.S. soybeans were reported at 18.043 million metric tons, also down 41 percent year over year. Wheat exports from the start of the marketing year totaled 12.196 million metric tons, up 23 percent annually. 

FACA Welcomes New Regenerative Ag Program

The Food and Agriculture Climate Alliance  welcomed the USDA’s announcement of a $700 million Regenerative Agriculture Pilot Program. It’s a farmer-focused initiative designed to advance voluntary conservation and expand practical soil health and water management efforts that support the long-term productivity of America’s farmers, ranchers, and forest owners. The pilot’s focus on measurable outcomes will help strengthen confidence in the environmental benefits of longstanding conservation and regenerative practices. “We look forward to hearing more details about the implementation of this new initiative to ensure it is practical and available for a wide variety of producers, including livestock, row crops, and specialty crops alike,” the group said in a statement. Earlier this year, the FACA Steering Committee developed Regenerative Agriculture Guiding Principles, including Advancing Measurable Soil Health and Ecosystem Benefits, Voluntary Science-Based and Incentive-Driven Guidelines, and Economic Viability and Farm Sustainability.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Reports for Monday include another catch-up edition of the weekly export sales report from USDA at 7:30 a.m. CST, which will update export information for U.S. commodities as of November 20. Later in the morning at 10 a.m. CST, USDA will also release their weekly export inspections report, with more recent export data as of December 11.

Weather

Cold air in the eastern half of the country is on its way out with warmer air spreading and filling in behind it this week. Some showers will be possible in the Great Lakes on Monday, and another system is moving into the Pacific Northwest, but drier conditions are found elsewhere Monday.

Farmers Say New $12B Aid Still Falls Short

American farmers reacted to the federal government’s newly announced $12 billion aid package with cautious relief, saying the funds may help some producers but won’t offset major financial strains facing the industry. The payments, which are part of a one-time bridge program aimed at helping farmers manage high input costs and market disruptions, are designed to provide temporary relief as producers prepare for the upcoming planting season. However, growers and agricultural economists argue the amount will not fully cover losses tied to depressed commodity prices, reduced export demand and elevated expenses for fuel, fertilizer and labor. Some producers said while the support offers needed breathing room, it does not address ongoing structural challenges, including trade barriers that have limited market access for major crops. Farm leaders continue to urge policymakers to pursue long-term market solutions alongside emergency support. 

Farmers Frustrated Despite New Federal Payments

Even with fresh federal support flowing to agricultural producers, many farmers say deeper problems persist in rural farm economies. In conservative farming regions such as parts of Minnesota, producers say recent bridge payments are welcome but inadequate to counteract prolonged trade pressures and weak prices for key commodities. Farmers reported that while emergency funds help offset some operating costs, they would prefer stronger market demand and stable export relationships that reduce dependence on government aid. Soybean and sorghum growers highlighted long-standing trade barriers that have weakened crop markets and shifted buyers to international competitors. Many producers also cited ongoing concerns about rising input costs and supply chain challenges that undercut profitability. Rural leaders say long-term solutions, including expanded export markets and strengthened domestic agricultural demand, are essential to improving farm livelihoods beyond temporary relief. 

Senators Push USDA for Faster Bird Flu Vaccine Plan

A bipartisan group of 23 senators called on the U.S. Department of Agriculture to expedite development of a comprehensive bird flu vaccination strategy amid rising infections in livestock flocks. Lawmakers warn that outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza, or HPAI, have killed millions of birds nationwide, threatening poultry producers already coping with supply chain pressures and volatile markets. While USDA announced plans earlier in the year to pursue a vaccine, senators say the lack of a clear timeline and implementation framework has left farmers without a dependable tool to protect flocks. The group emphasized that any vaccination approach should be grounded in scientific research and include input from producers, veterinarians and trade stakeholders. They also highlighted concerns about how vaccination policies could affect international trade if foreign partners remain wary of U.S. poultry exports. USDA has pledged research funding but has not yet released detailed operational plans. 

Invasive Mealybug Threatens Texas Pastures

Agriculture officials in Texas confirmed the first North American detection of the pasture mealybug, an invasive pest now infesting pastures across several counties in the state, including parts of the greater Houston area. The species, which has devastated grazing lands in other countries, has already caused visible damage by weakening and killing grass, prompting alerts from the Texas Department of Agriculture. Officials said the pest poses a serious risk to forage resources that livestock producers depend on, especially as ranchers prepare for winter grazing. State agriculture leaders are coordinating with federal partners and Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service to map the infestation and consider control measures. Landowners are being urged to inspect fields closely and report sightings to authorities to help contain the spread. The discovery highlights ongoing challenges from non-native species affecting U.S. agriculture and rangelands.

USDA Approves SNAP Purchase Restrictions in Six More States

The Trump administration has authorized six additional states to impose restrictions on Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, purchases, expanding a controversial policy initiative that aims to encourage healthier food choices among recipients. Under the waivers, beneficiaries in Hawaii, Missouri, North Dakota, South Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee will be barred from using SNAP benefits to buy sugary drinks, candy and certain highly processed items beginning next year. The move broadens a program launched earlier in 2025 that allows states to tailor purchase rules in exchange for eligibility for a new rural health fund. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the changes align with a broader effort to promote nutritional well-being, though critics call the restrictions paternalistic and warn they could stigmatize low-income consumers. 

Biofuel Initiative Aims to Expand Domestic Use

Leaders from the American Biofuels Maritime Initiative (ABMI) unveiled a new effort to expand the use of U.S. biofuels in maritime markets, signaling growing interest in renewable energy sources within the agriculture sector. Supported by stakeholders including the Renewable Fuels Association, the initiative seeks to promote domestic biofuel production and consumption among shipping companies looking to reduce carbon emissions and diversify fuel supplies. Proponents say increased maritime demand for biofuels could boost markets for ethanol and biodiesel, providing farmers with more outlets for their crops and strengthening rural economies. The initiative also aligns with broader energy and climate goals that encourage low-carbon alternatives in transportation sectors. Organizers plan to engage policymakers and industry leaders to explore regulatory and infrastructure pathways that support expanded biofuel integration in marine diesel and other maritime fuel blends.

Friday Watch List

Markets

There are no major economic or USDA reports scheduled for Friday, but CFTC will release another Commitments of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CST, with futures position data as of November 18.

Weather

A clipper system that brought a band of snow through the Midwest on Thursday is dying out as it crosses into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic on Friday. However, another is gathering strength across the Northern Plains with a heavy band of snow in Montana. Extremely cold air building over the Canadian Prairies will start to sweep southeast Friday as well.

Trump Loosens Rules to Cut Ag Equipment Costs

As he was announcing up to $12 billion in relief payments to farmers, Bloomberg said President Donald Trump pressured farm equipment manufacturers to drop their prices. The president said his administration would allow companies like Deere and others permission to “take off a lot of the environmental restrictions they have on machinery,” blaming them for driving up the costs for farmers. The president said manufacturers are “going to have to reduce their prices because farming equipment has gotten too expensive, and a lot of the reason is that they put these environmental excesses on the equipment, which don’t do a damn thing except make it complicated.” Fox Business reported that the administration is going to take a lot of that “nonsense” off the equipment. While Trump didn’t give many specifics on how the plan will work, he did say EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin would be involved in carrying out the effort. 

Organic Trade Association Reacts to Organic Investment Legislation

The Organic Trade Association applauded the introduction of the Domestic Organic Investment Act in the House and Senate. The bill makes essential improvements to expand U.S. farmers’ and manufacturers’ capacity to meet the demands of the growing organic marketplace, now at $71 billion. It will help ensure the continued expansion of the organic sector in the U.S. While the U.S. organic sector grew at double the pace of conventional agriculture in 2025, domestic organic production hasn’t kept pace with the growth in demand for organic products. The purpose of the new legislation is to create competitive grants for organic producers and manufacturers to invest in increased storage, processing, aggregation, and distribution capacity. “These infrastructure investments will remove longstanding barriers from the farm-gate through the supply chain to give organic producers and manufacturers the capacity they need to meet the growing demand,” said Matthew Dillon of the OTA.

USDA will Conduct a 2025 Organic Survey

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will conduct the 2025 Organic Survey. In early December, NASS will mail survey codes to respondents with an invitation to reply online. NASS will follow up by mailing the full questionnaire in early January. Last conducted in 2021, this Census of Agriculture special study will look to gather new data on organic production, marketing practices, incomes, and expenses in the U.S. This effort is critical to help determine the economic impact of organic agriculture production on the nation. The results will be available on October 30, 2026. “Organic agriculture is a growing industry, and it’s our job as a federal statistical agency to help measure this part of the agriculture sector,” said NASS Administrator Joseph Parsons. 

CoBank: Forces Shaping the 2026 Rural Economy

A new CoBank Report on the forces shaping the economy in 2026 says ample grain supplies will likely continue burdening the markets in 2026. Global grain and oilseed markets are still oversupplied, but increased biofuels production and improving export conditions are boosting optimism that prices have passed their cyclical bottoms. Demand for U.S. grains and oilseeds will continue strengthening as low prices stimulate usage. Elsewhere, investment in efficiency is paying dividends in animal protein production as consumers continue demanding more. Despite rising prices for meat and poultry, animal protein demand is expected to remain strong in 2026. The combination of higher revenues and falling feed prices is boosting producer optimism for the year ahead, but not to the degree that expansion is expected to proliferate. Milk protein is also poised for an extended bull-market run as demand for protein-based dairy products continues to climb. 

SAF Coalition Applauds Securing America’s Fuels Act

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Coalition’s Executive Director Allison Graab, applauded the introduction of the “Securing America’s Fuels Act” in the U.S. House. The SAF Act restores the full value of the credit for SAF and extends the entire 45Z tax credit through 2033. Senator Mike Flood (R-NE), one of the sponsors, said now is the right time for this legislation as America is on the cusp of the next great biofuels' revolution. “This Act is yet another way that Congress can grow our biofuels economy and encourage innovation that creates great jobs across Rural America,” Flood said. Sharice Davids (D-KS) said the SAF Act ensures that clean fuel production incentives are strong and long-term, so businesses, farmers, and innovators can plan for the future with confidence. “Sustainable aviation fuel isn’t just good for the environment, it’s good for our farmers, communities, and economy,” said Tracey Mann (R-KS). 

USDA Raises Global Wheat Production Forecast

USDA raised its outlook for global wheat production by 1.1 percent in its December WASDE report. The increase was thanks in part to gains in several major growing countries like Canada, Australia, and Russia. World production is projected at 837.81 million metric tons, up from the prior forecast of 828.89 million tons. The agency said Canadian wheat output is now projected at 40 million metric tons, up from the previous outlook for 37 million. Australian production is now expected to be 37 million metric tons, up from 36 million the previous month, while Russian output is seen at 87.5 million tons versus 86.5 million in November. Several other countries will likely see production that’s higher than previously forecast. For example, Argentina will produce a record 24 million metric tons of wheat this year, a nine percent jump above the previous forecast. 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

On Thursday, the U.S. Census Bureau will release the delayed September trade balance report at 7:30 a.m. CST. At that same time, USDA will release another catch-up export sales report, for the week ending November 13. Later in the afternoon, ERS will release a series of commodity outlooks such as their monthly Feed, Wheat, and Oil Crops Outlooks at 2 p.m. CST.

Weather

A clipper system in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains is producing scattered showers. That is organizing into a band of moderate precipitation across Montana that will spread southeast through Iowa and into the Ohio Valley throughout the day. Though it will be a mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow across the Northern Plains, it should turn to all snow across the Midwest. In general, 3-6" of snow is forecast in the heaviest part of the band.

More Details on the Emergency Bridge Payments to Farmers

The USDA is making $12 billion available in one-time bridge payments to American farmers in response to temporary trade market disruptions and increased production costs that are still impacting farmers. These bridge payments are intended in part to aid farmers until investments from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which includes a 10-21 percent increase in reference prices, are set to reach eligible farmers on October 1, 2026. Of the $12 billion provided, up to $11 billion will be used for the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, which provides broad relief to row crop farmers producing a wide range of commodities. Farmers who qualify for the FBA Program can expect payments to be released by February 28, 2026. Eligible farmers should ensure their 2025 acreage reporting is factual and accurate by 5pm ET on December 19, 2025. Commodity-specific payment rates will be released by the end of the month. 

Reaction to Farmer Bridge Payments

U.S. agriculture groups reacted to the White House announcement of $12 billion in “Farmer Bridge Payments” to be made available to commodity growers. “While we await additional details to assess the impact the payments may have, we also need immediate, market-based solutions,” said National Corn Growers Association President Jed Bower. “Passing year-round E15 legislation would be a great first step.” Rob Larew of the National Farmers Union said short-term payments are only a first step. “In real time, we’re experiencing the consequences of farm policy that’s badly outdated,” he said. The National Sorghum Producers applauded the payments. “Our farmers are working hard to plan for next year, and this will help keep operations steady heading toward 2026,” said NSP Vice Chair Garrett Love. Ranking Senate Ag Member Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) said, “The easiest way to give our farmers the relief they need is to end the tariff taxes for good.”

Farm Aid Distributes Over $1.3 Million in Grants

Following the success of its 40th music anniversary and food festival in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Farm Aid said it’s distributing over $1.3 million in grant funding this year to support family farmers. Putting the proceeds of its annual festival to work to strengthen family farms and agriculture, Farm Aid’s End of the Year Grant Program advances the on-the-ground work of farm and food organizations across the country. “These organizations are at the heart of the farm movement, with family farmers at the center of their work and leadership,” said Farm Aid President and Founder Willie Nelson. “This is especially important as farmers once again face trying times reminiscent of the crisis that gave rise to Farm Aid and the movement we’re a part of.” This month, Farm Aid committed $1,146,000 to 106 family farm, rural response, and urban agriculture organizations. Another $190,000+ going to other grant programs brings it to $1,336,000 this year.

CA Soybean Land Use Values Outdated

A recent study commissioned by Clean Fuels Alliance America and Farmers Fueling the Future found that California’s indirect land use change assumptions for U.S. soy-based biodiesel and renewable diesel are outdated and lacking modern agricultural practices and current science. The analysis, conducted by Life Cycle Associates, highlights substantially lower ILUC emissions for soy-based fuels than those currently used by the California Air Resources Board. Considerations include advances in economic modeling, land-use data, yield responsiveness, trade patterns, and carbon stock measurements. CARB last updated its soybean ILUC value in 2018, using modeling tools and data that predate many of today’s improvements in agricultural productivity and global market dynamics. “This study confirms that today’s farmers are meeting growing clean fuel demand through higher yields and responsible practices, and not land expansion,” said Dave Walton, Executive Board Member for Clean Fuels and the American Soybean Association. “CARB must modernize its approach to land-use changes.” 

Lamb Farmers Launch Feast It Forward Giveaway

The American Lamb Board is excited to share a new seasonal promotion designed to help drive consumers to restaurants that proudly feature American lamb, and to highlight the hard work of our U.S. sheep producers. ALB launched the Feast It Forward Giveaway, giving consumers a chance to win a gift card to their favorite restaurant serving American lamb. It’s a holiday incentive that keeps American lamb top-of-mind during one of the busiest dining seasons of the year. Participants can enter by visiting the Holiday Headquarters at Americanlamb.com. They can nominate their favorite restaurant that serves lamb and submit their entry. Winners will be announced at the end of December. “It’s a fun giveaway that celebrates the chefs, restaurants, and the producers who bring our American Lamb experiences to life,” said ALB Chair Jeff Ebert. “We support the restaurants that champion American Lamb and give consumers another reason to enjoy it.”

USDA Releases December WASDE

The December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report shows this month’s 2025-2026 U.S. corn outlook is for greater exports and lower ending stocks. Exports are raised 125 million bushels to 3.2 billion, reflecting shipments to date. With no supply changes and use rising, ending stocks dropped 125 million bushels to two billion. The season-average corn price is unchanged at $4 a bushel. Total U.S. oilseed production for 2025-2026 is forecast at 125.8 million tons, up slightly due to an increase in cottonseed. U.S. soybean supply, use, and price projections are unchanged. All of the supply and use categories for wheat are unchanged this month. However, there are offsetting by-class revisions for feed and residual use and exports. The season-average farm price remains at $5 a bushel. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Reports for Wednesday include the weekly Petroleum Status report from the Energy Information Administration at 9:30 a.m. CST, which will include last week's average ethanol production. Later in the afternoon, the Federal Reserve will announce their interest rate decision, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell at 1 p.m. CST.

Weather

A clipper system that moved across the North-Central states on Tuesday is moving through the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Wednesday. In addition to mixed precipitation, strong winds behind the system may be causing some blowing snow and wind damage. The next clipper system is moving through the Pacific Northwest and will get into the Canadian Prairies and Montana later Wednesday

White House Announcing $12 Billion in Farm Assistance

President Donald Trump was expected to announce a $12 billion aid package on Monday afternoon. Administration officials told the AP that it will be a boost for farmers struggling to sell their crops due to a months-long trade war with China and many other overseas markets. Trump was expected to unveil the plan at a White House roundtable with Treasury and Agriculture Secretaries Scott Bessent and Brooke Rollins, as well as lawmakers and farmers who grow commodities like corn, soybeans, cotton, and many others. Up to $11 billion is set aside for the USDA’s Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, which the administration says will offer a one-time payment to farmers of row crops of all kinds. The rest will be for U.S. farmers growing crops not covered under the bridge assistance program. It’s to help offer certainty to farmers as they market the current harvest and plan for next year. 

USDA Reorganization to Finish Next Year

USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said the reorganization of more than half of the current USDA staff in the Washington, D.C., area to five regional hubs across the country will be finished by 2026. In comments to Agri-Pulse, Vaden said the reorganization process, led by Vaden, will have moved over 2,000 USDA employees to five cities, including Raleigh, North Carolina; Kansas City, Missouri; Indianapolis, Indiana; Fort Collins, Colorado; and Salt Lake City, Utah. However, Civil Eats reported that several provisions in the recently passed agriculture funding bill may make it harder to implement the USDA’s reorganization plans. Several provisions require the agency to get Congressional approval before closing field offices of the Natural Resources Conservation Service, Rural Development, and the Farm Service Agency county offices or farm loan officers. Another provision said the Ag Secretary cannot eliminate programs or projects, or relocate offices, programs, and employees, without approval from Congressional appropriations committees. 

White House Pushing for Food Price Investigation

The White House ordered an investigation into food price-fixing. Axios (AXE-ee-ohs) said President Donald Trump is facing rising pressure about the inflation of food prices at the nation’s grocery stores. The President issued an executive order last weekend directing the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission to establish task forces on anti-competitive behavior in the food supply chain. The order directs them to specifically look at whether control of food-related industries by foreign entities is increasing the cost of food products in the U.S. or creating a national or economic security threat to Americans. The task forces are expected to be ready to brief Congressional leaders within six months. The order calls on the DOJ to pursue criminal charges if it finds evidence of price fixing in the U.S. food industry. Of the Big Four Meatpackers, two are subsidiaries of Brazilian companies, and Smithfield is controlled by China’s WH Group. 

Clean Fuels Comments on CARB Land Use Changes

Clean Fuels Alliance America, along with the California Advanced Biofuels Alliance, submitted formal comments to the California Air Resources Board following the agency’s public forums on biofuels and land use change. In the filing, Clean Fuels emphasized the importance of using the most accurate science to inform land use change modeling and policy decisions under California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard. The comments highlight substantial improvements in agricultural productivity, updated economic and carbon modeling, and the need for regulatory approaches that reflect real-world environmental outcomes. “Our members represent the majority of the clean diesel fuel used in California today, and we remain committed to working collaboratively with CARB to ensure the LCFS continues to deliver real near-term emissions reductions,” said Cory-Ann Wind, Clean Fuels Director of State Regulatory Affairs. ‘Modernizing land use change modeling is a critical step toward aligning policy with today’s data and market realities in 2026 and going forward.” 

AFT Supports PFAS Relief for Farmers

American Farmland Trust strongly endorses the bipartisan, bicameral “Relief for Farmers Hit with PFAS (PEE-fahs) Act. Introduced in both the House and Senate, the bill would provide much-needed federal funding for states to support farmers and ranchers impacted by the contamination of their land by PFAS, also referred to as “forever chemicals.” Tim Fink, vice president of policy for AFT, said the discovery of PFAS contamination can be devastating for farms, farmers, and their families, and through no fault of their own. “However, the state of Maine has proven that with the right financial and technical support, most farms can remain safely in operation,” Fink said. “It’s time that this essential financial, technical, healthcare, and research support be available to impact farmers across the nation.” PFAS are a synthetic class of chemicals widely used in consumer and industrial products, and are known for their persistence in the environment.

Global Investors Betting on Nebraska

Five major global gas companies announced a major new partnership to build a large-scale e-methane production facility in Nebraska. Biogenic CO2 sourced from ethanol producers is a critical feedstock for e-methane production, and the ability to secure CO2 delivery via pipeline is the primary reason this project targeted Nebraska. It’s a clear signal that international capital is flowing into the Midwest to secure reliable, low-carbon fuel sources for export markets. Methane, also known as natural gas, is usually drilled out of the ground, but can also chemically be formed. When burned, synthetic methane emits greenhouse gases but is considered less polluting due to its cleaner production process and re-use of CO2. A final investment decision is expected in 2027 on the facility, with startup scheduled for 2030. A statement from the five companies said the Live Oak Project will leverage Nebraska’s abundant biogenic CO2 resources, captured from bioethanol plants. 

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Market attention for Tuesday will be on the release of the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report due out from USDA at 11 a.m. CST. Other macroeconomic reports include delayed job openings from October. The December FOMC meeting will also begin though the interest rate decision announcement is set for Wednesday afternoon.

Weather

A small clipper is moving through the Great Lakes with a little snow on Tuesday morning, while a stronger clipper is developing in the Northern Plains. This system will move into the Upper Midwest throughout the day. A band of heavy snow is forecast from southeast Saskatchewan through Wisconsin, which will extend across Michigan tonight. Very strong winds will wrap up behind the system, especially in the Northern Plains where gusts could exceed 60 mph. Luckily, that will not coincide with much of the snow.

USDA Expanding Crop Insurance Access

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced major updates to federal crop insurance, reducing red tape for farmers, modernizing long-standing policies, and expanding access to critical risk protection beginning with the 2026 crop year. The “Expanding Access to Risk Protection (EARP) Final Rule streamlines requirements across multiple crops, responds to producer feedback, and strengthens USDA’s commitment to putting American farmers first. The Act reduces regulatory burdens by removing the “insured” requirement from the “1 in 4” rule for prevented planting payments. Other changes include allowing policyholders switching Approved Insurance Providers to submit production reports directly to their new provider, reducing confusion and paperwork. “With this new rule, we are delivering real, meaningful relief by modernizing the system, expanding access to crop insurance, and making it easier, not harder, for farmers and ranchers to protect their operations and keep doing their work of feeding and fueling America,” Rollins said. “We’re putting farmers first.”  

How Will Food Prices Affect Holiday Meals in 2025?

The holidays bring large increases in food spending for both food at home and food away from home. Consumers’ decisions during this season can have important implications for farmers and ranchers. Farmdoc, at the University of Illinois, said persistent inflation has impacted consumer food decisions in recent years, including their holiday meals. This year, estimates of Thanksgiving meal costs showed prices were slightly lower than in previous years. A survey showed 69 percent of respondents expect food prices to affect their meal plans this year. The concern was much higher for people who utilize nutrition assistance programs like SNAP. Despite the challenges, demand for many holiday favorites like turkey remains strong. Despite recent concerns regarding high beef prices, a larger share of consumers report plans to serve beef in their holiday meals compared to recent years. Consumers are adapting by shopping for food deals and shopping earlier than normal. 

Conditional Approval of Topical Screwworm Treatment

Merck Animal Health announced that the Food and Drug Administration granted conditional approval for EXOLT CATTLE-CA 1. It’s a new topical that’s approved for the prevention and treatment of infestations caused by New World Screwworm larvae, as well as the treatment and control of the cattle fever tick. “The New World Screwworm represents a growing concern to U.S. agriculture, potentially causing devastating economic losses for cattle producers that could reach hundreds of millions of dollars,” said Rick DeLuca, president of Merck Animal Health. “We worked closely with the FDA to accelerate availability so that veterinarians and cattle producers will have access to a powerful new tool to protect cattle from these serious parasites, helping to safeguard the industry’s economic future and the nation’s beef supply.” Merck also received market authorization in Mexico to prevent and treat the New World Screwworm to help control the spread of the parasite and protect cattle. 

China’s Deadline Moved to February

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extended an earlier deadline for Beijing’s purchases of American soybeans from December to February. Bessent said China is on pace to meet its pledge to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of February. Bloomberg said Bessent was asked about soybean purchases and the time left before the end of the year, to which the Secretary clarified that the target was the “end of the season,” which would be February 28. Reuters said the USDA confirmed 2.25 million tons of Chinese purchases to date for shipment in the 2025-2026 marketing year that ends in August 2026. Analysts and traders estimate that actual sales could be somewhere between three and four million tons, as some individual deals were likely under the USDA’s threshold, while others were reported to undisclosed destinations. However, total Chinese purchases remain well short of the volumes bought before the trade war.  

Plant-Based Product Survey Shows Continued Support

The Plant-Based Products Council released its 2025 Consumer Trends Research, revealing overwhelming public support for plant-based products. This is the sixth year the Council has conducted annual research to track consumer awareness, perceptions, and purchasing behavior related to plant-based products. “This year’s research makes one thing unmistakably clear: Americans see plant-based products as the future,” said James Glueck, executive director of the Plant Based Products Council. The 2025 Consumer Trends Research shows 71 percent of consumers are familiar with plant-based products. 85 percent of consumers view plant-based products favorably. Up to 68 percent of consumers say they use plant-based products at least monthly. 63 percent of consumers say they purchase plant-based products at least monthly. Almost three in four consumers support policy incentives and government investment in the American ag bioeconomy. The findings show plant-based products are firmly established as a mainstream consumer expectation and not a niche trend. 

World Food Prices Fall in November

The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index fell 1.2 percent to 125.1 points in November, marking a third consecutive monthly decline and a new low level since January. Sugar prices tumbled 5.9 percent to the lowest level since December 2020, amid expectations of ample global sugar supplies in the current season. Sugar production remained strong in Brazil and India. Dairy prices dropped 3.1 percent to September 2024 lows with declines recorded across all major dairy commodities. Prices for vegetable oils went down 2.6 percent as lower prices in other categories more than offset a slight increase in the price of soy oil. Also, meat prices dropped 0.8 percent, continuing to be driven lower by pig and poultry prices. On the other hand, cereal costs went up 1.8 percent, driven by a 2.5 percent increase in wheat bolstered by potential Chinese interest in supplies from the U.S. and reduced Russian plantings. 

Monday Watch List

Markets

Monday looks to be a quiet day for reports, although USDA will release their normal Monday morning export inspections report at 10 a.m. CST. Otherwise, traders will aim to square positions ahead of Tuesday's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from USDA.

Weather

A system working across the Mid-Atlantic is bringing some snow to the region on Monday. A weak clipper moving through the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains will do the same. Northern areas are preparing for multiple clippers to move through this week, bringing streaks of snow, strong winds, and bursts of cold air.

U.S. Officials to Announce Short-Term “Bridge Payment” Aid for Farmers

USDA plans to roll out a short-term “bridge payment” for farmers next week, officials said Tuesday, in a bid to help growers survive tight margins and trade-related losses. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told White House colleagues a key purpose of the payment is to cushion crop producers after a year of depressed prices and significant drops in U.S. soybean sales to China. While the broader 2025 farm support package has received roughly $40 billion in commitments, the second highest since the 1930s, farming groups say some producers need immediate liquidity to cover seed, fertilizer and other input costs ahead of 2026 planting. Details, including how much each farmer may receive and which crops are eligible, remain unclear. Lawmakers expressed optimism that at least partial payments could be distributed before year’s end. 

Soybean Basis Bids Firm as Farmers Hold Off Sales

Spot basis bids for soybeans at U.S. Midwest elevators and processing plants rose slightly Wednesday even as farmers held off on sales, traders said. The uptick comes amid a broader pullback in cash sales, as growers await improvements in futures prices before committing grain. Corn basis bids also trended steady to higher at ethanol plants and elevators, while bids fell or stayed flat elsewhere. Some market observers linked the cautious seller behavior to the upcoming “bridge payment” announced by USDA, noting that additional cash flow to farms may encourage growers to delay sales until conditions improve. That dynamic underscores lingering uncertainty in the U.S. grain markets, even as some external demand, including recent shipments to China, helps support hopes for firmer prices before spring planting. 

U.S. Dairy Prices Slide as Inventories Grow, Exports Shift

U.S. dairy markets are seeing major softening in domestic prices even as dairy output and some export categories swell, dealers and analysts reported Wednesday. Butter prices dropped nearly $1 per pound compared with a year ago, while cheddar cheese and other block-cheese prices declined by roughly 40–50 cents. These shifts reflect both abundant domestic supply and weaker demand for standard dairy products. At the same time, U.S. exports of value-added dairy — including certain cheeses and butter — surged: butter exports jumped 162 percent, American-type cheese exports rose 129 percent, and cheddar exports climbed 131 percent compared with last year. Still, trends look mixed: while cheese plants maintained throughput, powder-milk and whey production slowed. Stocks of key dairy ingredients tightened, especially in dry-milk and whey inventories, even as overall milk production remains high. Analysts warn these market swings — high supply, shifting demand and falling wholesale prices — could squeeze farm margins heading into 2026, especially if global export demand softens. 

Australian Grain-Fed Beef Exports Surge as U.S. Output Slows

Australia is ramping up grain-fed beef exports just as U.S. production of beef declines, signaling a notable shift in global meat markets. At the ‎Gundamain feedlot west of Sydney, thousands of Black Angus cattle are being fattened on high-energy diets for about 90 days, helping feed Australia’s push to satisfy rising global demand for marbled grain-fed beef. Industry data show Australia had 1.6 million head in feedlots as of mid-2025, up dramatically from around 1 million five years ago — and the number is expected to reach 2 million by 2027. The expansion comes as U.S. beef production shrinks, due in part to tight cattle supplies and drought-related herd reductions. Analysts say this gives Australian exporters a competitive advantage in foreign markets, especially in Asia. The shift could reshape beef trade flows in coming years — and raise questions about price competition and supply security for longtime U.S. beef importers. 

Global Forecast: Beef Production to Fall Further in 2025

Beef production in major exporting and consuming regions is projected to decline in 2025, with global output likely to remain under pressure heading into 2026, analysts at Rabobank reported this week. The report indicates the largest volume reductions are expected in the United States, which has faced shrinking herds and lower slaughter rates. That trend helps explain why other producers — particularly Australia — are expanding feedlot capacity to capitalize on weakened U.S. output. At the same time, production in several other major beef-producing countries — including New Zealand — is forecast to drop the most in percentage terms, driven by tighter margins, disease pressures and shifting global demand. Globally, exports of beef and beef products are expected to grow only modestly, as shrinking supplies and rising input costs limit expansion potential, the Rabobank analysis found. This downtrend could have ripple effects on beef prices worldwide — potentially boosting retail costs in importing countries and reshaping consumer supply chains just as demand recovers after pandemic-era disruptions.

USDA Secretary Says Trade Deals Could Reduce Future Reliance on Aid

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said this week that trade deals under consideration may help reduce farmers’ long-term dependence on federal support — even as a short-term aid package is being readied. President Donald Trump’s administration argues that expanding foreign market access through new trade agreements will create “unprecedented” export opportunities, offering farmers alternative income streams. Still, given current headwinds — low crop prices, tight export demand and rising input costs — the proposed “bridge payment” remains vital to help growers get through the 2025–2026 cycle without severe financial hardship. Whether trade deals will deliver sufficient demand to offset the loss of aid remains uncertain, especially for producers of specialty crops and regions with high production costs. Industry observers warn that concrete export deals and stable pricing will be necessary to avoid future bailouts. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

At 7:30 a.m. CST, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the delayed Personal Consumption Expenditure data from September. In the afternoon, CFTC will release another Commitments of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CST, with positions up to October 28.

Weather

An old cold front has stalled across the Gulf and Southeast Coasts where showers continue for Friday. The first in a long series of clippers is moving through Ontario and its cold front dropping into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest is producing some light snow.

Experts Split on China Meeting Soybean Pledge

Commodity experts and ag economists appear split on whether China will actually buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025. Bloomberg said the pledge is underscoring a wider hope in the market that the fragile trade truce can hold on. Traders said commercial and state-owned importers like COFCO (KOFF-coh) will take more shipments in the weeks ahead. Farm Journal’s November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor said more than 75 percent of economists surveyed say China won’t purchase that amount of soybeans this year. Only 24 percent think they will. Arlan Suderman (SOO-der-man), the chief commodities economist at StoneX, said the market is assuming something less than the full 12 million metric ton pledge. “I think the market has priced in expectations of eight to ten million metric tons, and they’ll take it during the marketing year between now and the end of August,” Suderman told Farm Journal.

More Soybean Shipments Heading to China

After a tariff war stalled trade for months, Reuters said shipments of U.S. crops headed to China are picking up in number. At least six large cargo vessels are scheduled to fill up with soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December. A shipping schedule that was seen by Reuters this week said a seventh U.S. soybean cargo was loaded during the previous weekend and is already headed to China, the first shipment since May. While the White House announced that China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of this month, Beijing has yet to confirm any details about potential promises to purchase large volumes of U.S. soybeans. USDA data said Chinese importers booked nearly two million metric tons of U.S. soybeans last month for delivery in the 2025-2026 marketing year that ends in August 2026. U.S. sorghum shipments have also restarted to China.

U.S.-EU Trade Deal Advances

The 27 member-states in the European Union approved the European Commission’s trade agreement with the U.S. However, Mexico Business News said the European Parliament will challenge the elements i considers to be unfair after President Donald Trump tripled tariffs on EU products while Brussels eliminated duties on U.S. imports. In late November, the EU countries agreed to lower tariffs on U.S. imports under a deal struck last summer between the Commission and the White House. Critics said the deal presents multiple disadvantages to EU exports. A proposal to introduce a “sunset clause” that would end the tariff cuts after five years if the deal doesn’t get renewed was debated and eventually shot down in discussions. The Commission said the deal was the “best achievable,” and to reject it would have caused the EU even greater disadvantages. Both the Council and Parliament must agree on the final text by next spring.

Research Shows Stagnant Biosecurity Efforts in Dairy

New research shows that U.S. dairy farmers are more reactive than proactive when it comes to on-farm biosecurity. A Farm Journal survey shows many producers are neglecting the basics, leaving their operations vulnerable to ever-evolving threats. The new research was released this week at the MILK Business Conference. Dairy Herd Management said the study found farm hygiene and herd health aren’t top of mind on all farms. One-third of farms don’t proactively review their biosecurity plans, which indicates a lack of ongoing commitment to their plans or adaptation to threats. The survey did find a bit of good news as 70 percent of the larger dairies said they’re already working on improving their biosecurity programs. While 68 percent of farmers with at least 250 dairy cows report established biosecurity plans, 34 percent admit they don’t review those plans regularly. Over 20 percent neglect to secure access to their barns and housing. 

Sugar Growers Give Back During the Holidays

America’s sugarbeet growers are sharing the spirit of connection during the holiday season in a variety of ways. For example, the Michigan Sugar Company celebrated National Real Sugar Day by volunteering at the company’s annual United Way Sugar Distribution Day, donating more than 57,000 pounds of Real Pioneer Sugar to more than 100 nonprofits, many of them food pantries. The Domino Sugar Refinery of Baltimore launched an Oyster Gardening Program. Oysters act as a natural filtration system to keep water clean. With oyster populations declining, Domino employees lower cages of baby oysters into a nearby river to begin growth. American Crystal Sugar employees in the Red River Valley of Minnesota and North Dakota give five cents for every ton of sugarbeets harvested to local charities where employees live and work. Employee gifts mean over 6,000 families in the Red River Valley will have sugar in their holiday meal boxes this season.