Concerns over Mississippi River Levels as Harvest Approaches

There's continued evidence that we may once again experience some low water conditions on the lower Mississippi River this fall. The prospects for restricted barge transportation this fall may come as a surprise for many given the healthy amounts of rainfall throughout much of the Midwest this spring and summer. However, the spigot has mostly been turned off throughout August – particularly in states that feed into the Ohio River, which feeds the Mississippi. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 60% of the water volume on the Mississippi River south of Cairo, Illinois (where the Ohio River merges into the Mississippi River), is provided by the Ohio River.  As a result, low water volumes on the Ohio River will often translate to low water volumes on the lower Mississippi River.  The higher water levels at St. Louis reflect the amount of precipitation in the adjacent regions throughout the spring and summer, which was most beneficial.  

USDA Expands Efforts to Strengthen Rural Veterinary Workforce

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced Friday a commitment to new actions to increase the number of rural food animal veterinarians across the U.S. and recruit new veterinarians to join the USDA in their role to protect American ranchers, animals, and the food supply. Secretary Rollins also announced two awardees of the Veterinary Services Grant Program which will allow for expanded capabilities to serve livestock producers in rural Mississippi and opened a new consolidated USDA office with the Rural Development, the Farm Service Agency, and the Mississippi Farm Bureau in line with USDA’s reorganization efforts. “Rural veterinarians are vital for the agricultural economy in the United States. As the number of rural food animal veterinarians continues to decline, USDA is putting Farmers First to ensure we build back our first line of defense in our animal food production system – the rural veterinarian,” said Secretary Rollins. 

First Checks Sent To North Carolina Farmers for Hurricane Helene, other 2024 Ag Losses

The North Carolina Department of Agriculture & Consumer Services announced that the first group of checks has been sent to farmers who applied for disaster assistance through the 2024 Ag Disaster Crop Loss Program, according to a news release. The first round of checks, announced by Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler, was sent out to farmers in western North Carolina affected by Hurricane Helene. The payments are part of a total of $478 million in ag disaster assistance crop loss funds appropriated by the N.C. General Assembly to help farmers statewide who suffered almost $5 billion in agriculture losses from Helene, a drought, Tropical Storm Debby, and Potential Cyclone 8. “Getting disaster relief out to our devastated ag community has been a priority for the department, and I appreciate farmers’ patience as we have worked through the process of verifying damage and losses and processing the over 8,500 applications we received,” Troxler said in the news release.

Is the U.S. Corn and Soybean Crop Getting Smaller?

From disease to drought, the 2025 crop has been thrown a curveball late in the season. It’s also pushing the crop to maturity quicker. And with USDA currently projecting a record yield and crop, many analysts say the U.S. crop is likely going backwards in terms of yield, but that doesn’t necessarily mean USDA will cut yield projections next month. USDA’s August crop production report showed a record-high 2025/26 U.S. corn yield projection of 188.8 bushels per acre and a record-high soybean yield estimate at 53.6 bushels per acre. But southern rust could take a big bite out of the U.S. corn crop this year. The disease is causing turmoil for farmers who have a large crop in the making. In some cases, a Hail Mary fungicide application at R4 up to early dent (R5) might make sense this season, say agronomists. But in severe cases, the disease can wipe out 45% of the yield potential in a field, according to the Crop Protection Network.

New Clean Water Rule to clarify WOTUS Definition and Conform with SCOTUS Sackett Ruling

The Trump administration will soon propose a new Clean Water Act rule that could eliminate federal protections for many wetlands across the U.S., according to an internal EPA presentation obtained by POLITICO’s E&E News. Under the proposed rule, the federal government would regulate wetlands only if they meet a two-part test: They would need to contain surface water throughout the “wet season,” and they would need to be abutting and touching a river, stream or other water body that also flows throughout the wet season, the presentation said. Fewer wetlands permits would be required under the new language, according to a slide from the presentation, which was confirmed by two EPA staffers who were briefed on the rule. In 2023, the Supreme Court ruled in Sackett v. EPA that only wetlands with a “continuous surface connection” to a “relatively permanent” body of water are protected by the law. 

Brazil set to Retaliate Against U.S. Tariffs

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has authorized the start of a process to retaliate against the 50% U.S. tariffs, according to Brazil’s Vice President Geraldo Alckmin. Bloomberg reports the U.S. government was formally notified of the decision on Friday, according to a person familiar with the matter. The move was reported earlier by the O Estado de S. Paulo newspaper. Brazil’s Chamber of Foreign Trade now has up to 30 days to analyze the U.S. tariffs and determine whether they fall under the reciprocity law passed by Brazil’s congress earlier this year. If the chamber approves, a group of ministries will study which countermeasures to apply. 

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Construction Spending; ISM Manufacturing PMI 9 a.m. CDT

Export Inspections 10 a.m. CDT

Grain and Oilseed Crush reports 2 p.m. CDT

Crop Progress 3 p.m. CDT

Weather

A small system continues to produce some showers across the MidSouth on Tuesday. A stronger front is moving into the Northern Plains and will sweep southward through the Upper Midwest throughout the day as well. Scattered showers will be found with both systems and temperatures will drop behind the front across the north again.

Over 50 Percent Rise in NWS Cases in Mexico

Cases of New World screwworm infections in Mexico have climbed by more than 50 percent since July. As of August 17, Reuters said Mexico has documented 5,086 cases of the flesh-eating screwworm in animals, a 53 percent rise from July, according to numbers released by the Mexican government. The updated numbers previously unavailable to the public show 649 currently active cases of screwworm infections. “That’s incredibly concerning,” said Neal Wilkins. He told Drovers that a fifty percent increase in the number of cases from July to August, particularly in extreme heat, means that Mexico hasn’t gotten the parasite under control. An NCBA spokesman said the increase in the number of NWS cases shows that the New World screwworm is a very present and real threat. Drovers said the increase in the number of reported cases likely comes from Mexican cattle producers more closely inspecting their cattle and reporting any suspicious wounds or pests. 

U.S. and Canadian Cattle Inventory Down One Percent

All cattle and calves in the United States and Canada combined to total 106 million head on July 1, 2025, which was down one percent from the 107 million head on July 1, 2023. All cows and heifers that have calved totaled 42.5 million head, and that number was also down one percent from two years ago. All cattle and calves in the U.S. totaled 94.2 million head on July 1, 2025, down one percent from 95.4 million head on July 1, 2023. All cows and heifers that have calved totaled 38.1 million head, down by one percent from two years ago. All cattle and calves in Canada as of July 1, 2025, totaled 11.9 million head, which was up one percent from the 11.8 million head on July 1, 2024. All cows and heifers that have calved in Canada totaled 4.4 million head, which was up slightly from last year.

Illinois Sees Falling Farmland Values and Cash Rents

Prices paid for Illinois farmland dropped slightly during the first half of 2025. That’s according to information from the Illinois Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers. Survey respondents indicated that while 31 percent expected no changes in prices paid, the balance reported the following declines: down 2.2 percent for excellent-quality farmland, down 3.5 percent for both good and average-quality land, and  prices were three percent lower for fair-quality land. In addition to the reported drop in prices paid, most respondents expect farmland prices to decline slightly or remain stable during the rest of 2025: 49 percent expect declines of under three percent, and 33 percent expect prices to remain the same. Most farm managers are also expecting cash rents to be lower in 2026 compared to this year by between $15 and $20 per acre. Rents on excellent land are expected to drop from $391 to $374 an acre.

Fresh Pork Expected to Be More Price-Competitive with Beef and Chicken

A National Pork Board report expects pork to be even more price-competitive with beef and chicken during the fall. The pork supply continues to fall short of expectations. In the last month, slaughter is down 3.3 percent, and when combined with the decline in weights, production has been down four percent. With Labor Day weekend, there will be some volatility in terms of pricing and supply. Hog slaughter is expected to quickly climb above 2.5 million head per week by mid-September. This will likely ease some of the tight supply. Labor-to-bone product has been a concern and could become more of an issue as slaughter moves higher in the fall. Ham prices are expected to trade firmly as export buyers are short-bought. Bellies should also ease lower in September and October. October is Pork Month, and rib prices are already above last year’s. 

Denver Lamb Jamb Tour 2025 a Big Success

The 2025 Lamb Jam Tour visited Denver on August 20 and was a great success. The sold-out event was filled with delicious American Lamb bites as over 200 people, media guests, and ALB board members joined the celebration, enjoying an unforgettable experience centered around flavor and creativity. Guests tasted seven unique lamb dishes from some of the top chefs in Denver, a demonstration from Western Daughters Butcher Shop, and an interactive trivia session. The winners walked away with lamb cut giveaways. “The Denver Lamb Jam event was a truly unforgettable evening that showcased the versatility of American Lamb while celebrating our local farmers, ranchers, and chefs,” said ALB Chair Jeff Ebert. Attendees also sampled an assortment of locally-sourced sheep’s milk cheese from a nearby specialty cheese shop, which was a perfect pairing with the lamb offerings. The event wrapped with the crowning of the 2025 Denver Lamb Jam Master Chef. 

Rural Mainstreet Index Falls Below Growth Neutral

For the sixth time this year, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index sank below growth neutral. That’s according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a ten-state region dependent on agriculture or energy. The overall reading for August dropped to 48.1 after rising above growth-neutral to 50.6 in July and 51.9 in June. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing neutral growth. “Weak agriculture commodity prices for grain producers continue to dampen economic activity in the ten-state region,” said Dr. Ernie Goss of Creighton University. “Bank CEOs and chief loan officers expect almost one-fifth, or 19.5 percent, of grain farmers to experience negative cash flow for 2025.” According to Jeff Bonnett, an ag banker in Illinois, “As current prices for corn and soybeans are still below break-even, the majority of the state’s producers will struggle to show operational profitability.”

Friday Watch List

Markets

Personal Consumption Expenditure reports for July at 7:30 a.m. CDT

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report at 2:30 p.m. CDT

Weather

A little low pressure system moving along an old front continues to produce some heavy rain near the Gulf Coast on Friday. A system entering the Plains is producing areas of showers and thunderstorms as well. Temperatures remain mild across much of the country east of the Rockies.

China is not Buying U.S. Soybeans

The world’s top soybean importer, China, doesn’t seem to have bought a single American cargo ship’s worth of soybeans for the coming year. Bloomberg said that’s despite the typical U.S. soybean export season beginning in days. U.S. government data shows Chinese buyers are standing pat on U.S. soybeans while the two countries continue to negotiate an end to the trade hostilities that have upended commodity markets. America’s soybean farmers have told the White House that the current stalemate has them hanging on the edge of a financial precipice. China imposed retaliatory tariffs on American soybean imports in March, making the cargoes less competitive in the Chinese market. The U.S. harvest typically starts in September. Chinese mills that crush the oilseed into animal feed will usually book ahead to take advantage of cheaper prices and ensure their needs are met for the first few weeks or months of the crop year. 

Why the Delay in Reporting the Screwworm?

The Maryland Department of Health said the patient with the first human infection of a travel-associated New World screwworm in the U.S. has recovered from the flesh-eating parasite. There was also no sign of transmission to other people or animals. The Health and Human Services Department said the disease was confirmed on August 4 in a person who traveled to El Salvador. The CDC then reported it on August 24 after a three-week delay. R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard indicated that neither the CDC nor the USDA had disclosed the NWS detection to the public. Instead, one or both agencies had selectively notified only certain industry participants of the detection, thereby giving them insider information regarding an issue with potentially severe ramifications. “Independent U.S. livestock producers rely exclusively on the USDA to protect the health and safety of their livestock herds against the introduction of foreign pests,” Bullard said. 

NCGA: Corn is Unprofitable at Current Price Levels

The National Corn Growers Association issued a report saying corn prices have dropped about 50 percent since hitting a peak in 2022. However, the cost of production has declined only modestly, making the production of corn unprofitable. The group said despite the plunging prices, the cost of growing an acre of corn this year is down only 3.3 percent from when prices topped out in 2022. “This is particularly problematic for farmers trying to cash flow high production costs while the corn price has tanked,” NCGA said in the report. Production of the grain is set to reach 16.742 billion bushels on a yield of 188.8 bushels per acre in the 2025-2026 marketing year. The average cost to grow a bushel of corn this year is projected at approximately $4.75 a bushel, and USDA expects farmers to receive about $3.90 per bushel, resulting in an 85-cent per bushel loss. 

Checkoff Launches Dairy Health Innovation Contest

Dairy Management, Inc. is now accepting entries for its 2026 New Product Competition. They’re inviting undergraduate and graduate students from across the U.S. to develop innovative dairy-based products that meet today’s consumer demands for bone, muscle health, and weight management. This annual contest challenges students to create forward-thinking products that showcase the power and versatility of dairy in promoting health and wellness. The deadline for entries is January 12. As consumers increasingly seek functional foods to support active and healthy lifestyles, dairy’s nutrient-rich profile presents a major opportunity. The competition encourages students to tap into current industry and consumer insights and aims to bring fresh dairy-based concepts to market. DMI says the competition is about more than just innovation, but also about preparing the next generation of food and dairy leaders to respond to evolving consumer needs with dairy at the center. The first-place Platinum Dairy Innovator Award winner gets $10,000. 

Sorghum Checkoff Launches First Human Clinical Trial

The United Sorghum Checkoff Program announced the launch of the first human clinical trial to evaluate whole grain sorghum’s health benefits. Funded by the Checkoff and conducted by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the landmark study will investigate how daily consumption of two whole-grain sorghum varieties – a traditional white sorghum and a “sumac” sorghum - influences key health markers such as insulin resistance, inflammation, and gut microbiome composition. “The first of its kind human study is a direct result of sorghum producers’ commitment to scientific research,” said Lanier Dabruzzi, director of nutrition and innovation with the Sorghum Checkoff. “By investing in rigorous clinical research, we aim to provide the science-backed evidence health professionals and food companies need to recognize sorghum as a truly beneficial grain for whole-body health.” Tim Lust, CEO of the Sorghum Checkoff, said farmers are proving how special sorghum is on the biggest stage, which is human nutrition. 

Future Beef Leaders Receive $100,000

The next generation of leaders in the beef industry is already putting in the hard work on ranches, in classrooms, and in research labs. The Colvin Scholarship Fund recognizes and supports their dedication by awarding 27 students across the country a combined $100,000 this year to continue their pursuit of innovation, growth, and leadership in the beef industry. Each recipient is actively pursuing a career in production agriculture, industry research, or other agricultural endeavors. With their aspirations for success in the beef industry, they are continuing the legacy of Louis “Mick” Colvin, Certified Angus Beef co-founder and long-time executive director. “Seeing these students pursue their passions in agriculture is truly inspiring,” says Danielle Matter, CAB director of content strategy. “Each scholarship recipient is not only talented and driven, but also represents the innovation, leadership, and dedication that will shape the future of the beef industry, and we’re proud to support them.”

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CDT

StatsCan Model-based Principal Field Crop Estimates at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Q2 GDP First Revision at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Outlook for U.S. Ag Trade at 2 p.m. CDT

Weather

A low pressure system will move southeast from Kansas and Oklahoma into the Delta Thursday, providing some areas of moderate to heavy rainfall across northern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Some of these areas could see 3-4 inches of rain by Thursday evening. In the Eastern Corn Belt, a cold front will continue to move across the area, providing isolated showers and storms. Rainfall will generally be on the lighter side, with less than 0.5 inch expected.

Farm Incomes Dropping in Fed’s Ninth District

The Federal Reserve’s Ninth District in Minneapolis, Minnesota, has enjoyed good weather for crop production, but crop prices haven’t been friendly to farmers’ pocketbooks. A North Dakota farm lender told the Federal Reserve that, “High operating costs and lower grain prices are the biggest concerns.” Lenders responding to the second quarter Ag Credit Survey said farm incomes decreased across the Ninth District. Lenders also reported that spending on capital equipment fell, and farm household purchases edged lower on balance. Around the district, 91 percent of the agricultural lenders said incomes decreased from April through June compared to the same period a year ago. With the weaker cash position, demand for loans rose sharply. Loan repayments also dropped, and loan renewal and extension activity increased. Interest rates for agricultural loans decreased slightly but remained high. Cropland values in the Ninth District were mixed, while cash rents dropped compared to last year. 

Top Chinese Trade Negotiator Traveling to the U.S.

The Senior Chinese trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, is expected to be in Washington, D.C., to meet with U.S. officials and continue trying to move forward from their current tariff truce. Li, who is China’s international trade representative and one of the country’s key negotiators, will likely meet with deputy-level U.S. government officials. However, a government spokesperson said the visit will not be part of a formal negotiating session. As of now, there is no formal meeting planned between Li and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Reuters said traders around the world are watching to see if the current tariff extension will become permanent, or if President Donald Trump will again upend global supply chains with another round of high duties on Chinese imports. At a soybean industry event in Washington, D.C., last week, China’s Ambassador said in a speech that U.S. protectionism is rampant and damaging U.S.-China agricultural cooperation.

Consumers Shrug Off High Beef Prices

When retail prices for any product reach record-high levels, the demand usually plummets quickly. U.S. beef appears to be the exception to the basic rule of economics. Retail grocery store prices for beef skyrocketed and show no signs of descending. But demand hasn’t softened. A new report from CoBank says the allure of beef, even at high prices, is likely the result of several factors currently shaping consumer buying behaviors. The all-fresh retail beef prices surged by nine percent, hitting $8.90 per pound. CoBank says improvements in beef quality and the increased availability of premium-grade cuts at retail have played a big role in driving demand. The U.S. beef industry is producing a much higher quality of product today than it did 30 years ago. Brian Earnst, lead animal protein analyst, says access to high-quality beef has never been better, and American consumers have developed a taste for it. 

Diversifying Market Opportunities at the 2025 USSEC Soy Connext

Emphasizing the growing economic value and importance of global market diversification for U.S. Soy, international trade teams representing 34 countries have been visiting stakeholders in the U.S. Soy industry. Against a backdrop of changing trade dynamics and increasing global demand for reliable, high-quality protein and oil, Soy Connext brings together industry leaders, farmers, international buyers, and stakeholders from across the soy value chain. Over 700 people from 59 countries are attending this year’s Soy Connext in Washington. “Soy Connext is not just about celebrating the strength of U.S. Soy,” said Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council. “It’s about demonstrating our commitment to providing reliable, high-quality products that meet the needs of diverse international markets across every region of the world and building the strong relationships that help the U.S. achieve that.” U.S. Soy is America’s top agricultural export, contributing $31.2 billion to the U.S. economy in 2023-2024. 

Farmers for Free Trade Hitting the Road

All summer, Farmers for Free Trade hosted Tariff Town Halls across the country to hear how their livelihoods have been turned upside down due to trade policy. From Raleigh, North Carolina, to Montana, farmers and business leaders voiced frustration with trade policies that raised costs, shrunk markets, cut take-home pay, and threw their future into limbo. These stories, backed by new research showing billions drained from the heartland, caught the attention of the media, policymakers, and communities alike. Farmers for Free Trade heard one thing loud and clear: this conversation must continue. Starting in Nebraska during September, the Motorcade for Trade RV Tour will do just that – bring listening sessions to more communities as the motorcade crisscrosses the country to give farmers and businesses a stronger platform. The Motorcade for Trade will keep the pressure on policymakers to deliver trade policies that strengthen, not weaken, America’s farms and local businesses.  

August Food Price Outlook Rises

The USDA’s August 2025 Food Price Outlook forecasts overall food prices to increase by 2.9 percent in 2025. Food-at-home prices will rise by 2.2 percent, and food-away-from-home prices will increase by 3.9 percent. These projections suggest price increases will be close to the historical average rate for 2025, while prices are expected to grow more slowly in 2026. The USDA’s Economic Research Service says in 2026, food prices overall will increase by 2.2 percent. Food-at-home prices next year will increase by 1.2 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to rise by 3.3 percent in 2026. From June to July this year, prices declined for eight food-at-home categories, increased for six categories, and were stable for one food-at-home category. Products like beef, veal, pork, and fresh vegetables experienced price swings of larger than one percent. Two categories, eggs and fresh fruit, experienced price decreases of larger than one percent. Pork prices rose 1.3 percent as well. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 a.m. CDT

U.S. and Canada joint Cattle and Hogs Reports at 2 p.m. CDT

Weather

A cold front will start digging south into the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday, providing spotty showers across the northern Corn Belt. The stationary front in the south-central U.S. will lead to additional showers developing across the Southern and Central Plains Wednesday before shifting east into the Delta early Thursday.

Six People Die in Colorado Dairy Accident

Six people in Northeast Colorado died last week after what’s being described by officials as a “dairy accident” at Prospect Valley Dairy. One of the deceased was a student in the Weld School District. Three other people were taken to a local hospital and released. Officials report the deaths were due to hydrogen sulfide exposure in a confined space due to a pipe leak. The Occupational Health and Safety Administration says hydrogen sulfide occurs naturally in crude petroleum and natural gas, but is also produced by decomposing manure. It’s mildly irritating to people’s eyes and respiratory systems when exposed to it in low doses, but it can quickly become deadly when people are exposed to large amounts in a confined space. The Weld County Coroner’s Office said that all the victims were male. The property is owned by Prospect Valley Dairy LLC and lists a Bakersfield, California, address for the owners. 

Human Case of New World Screwworm Confirmed in the U.S.

The Department of Health and Human Services reported the first human case of New World Screwworm in the U.S. The diagnosis was confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control. The disease appeared in a traveler who’d been returning to the U.S. from Central America, where the disease is already present. State veterinarians learned of the human case during a call last week with the CDC. Oklahoma State Veterinarian Dr. Rod Hall said the patient lives in Maryland, where officials said they’re confident it is contained. Dr. Hall added that he believes the U.S. is probably more likely to get it in a person or pet than in livestock, at least in the short term. South Dakota State Veterinarian Beth Thompson was quoted in a Reuters article as saying that when NWS was confirmed in Maryland, the CDC worked with local physicians to identify the larvae. No livestock movement restrictions are in place. 

U.S. Cattle on Feed Down Two Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.9 million head on August 1, 2025. That was two percent below August 1, 2024, and in line with pre-report trade estimates of 98.1 percent. Drovers said the August 1 level is an eight-year low. The state-by-state breakdown showed a steady increase across most of the states, but compared to a year ago, the Southern feedlots were well below 2024. That’s because of the closure of the Southern U.S. border to Mexican feeder imports. The northern feeder areas were said to be above year-ago levels. Texas placements were at 75 percent of last year, Colorado was 76 percent, Nebraska was at 98 percent, while Kansas and Iowa were at 102 and 118 percent, respectively. Feedlot placements in July were 1.6 million head, six percent below last year. 

EPA Acts on Over 175 Small Refinery Exemption Petitions

The Environmental Protection Agency announced a decision to exempt some small refineries from blending biofuels in their supplies at levels required under the Renewable Fuel Standard. Out of the 175 outstanding petitions, the EPA granted full exemptions to 63, partial exemptions to 77, and denied another 28, while determining seven were ineligible. National Corn Growers President Kenneth Hartman, Jr., said the agency has taken a big step toward resolving a stubborn issue that has lingered without resolution for too many years. Small refineries are allowed to submit petitions to the EPA each year, requesting hardship exemptions from requirements under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The standard was signed into law in 2005 and requires refiners to include ten percent biofuel blends in their fuel production. “With government reports projecting record corn yields this year, we want the Renewable Fuel Standard implemented precisely as it was intended,” Hartmann Jr. said. 

Groups React to EPA Ruling on SRE Petitions

The Environmental Protection Agency issued decisions on 175 small refinery exemptions that had lingered for years. Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, said the more than 140 granted exemptions don’t give farmers and biofuel producers the certainty that they need. “It’s imperative that EPA reallocates each and every exempt gallon in a forthcoming rule,” said Skor. While the Renewable Fuels Association says it doubts the refineries were truly experiencing “disproportionate economic hardship” due to the RFS, President Geoff Cooper said, “We are pleased to see EPA taking an approach to implementation of these exemptions that’s minimally disruptive to the marketplace.” Clean Fuels Alliance America said EPA’s “course correction” on exemptions creates fresh uncertainty for America’s farmers and biodiesel, renewable diesel, and SAF producers. Devin Mogler, President and CEO of the National Oilseed Processors Association, said his group urges EPA to finalize a reallocation policy that fully accounts for the lost gallons.

Pro Farmer Crop Tour Estimates Smaller Than USDA Numbers

Pro Farmer’s Crop Tour ended last week with its national harvest estimates for the U.S. corn and soybean crops. Pro Farmer analyzed the information gathered from its 33rd Annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour and other sources. Pro Farmer estimates the 2025 U.S. corn crop at 16.204 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, which is down from the USDA’s August estimate of 188.8 bushels. Chip Flory, leader of the Crop Tour’s western leg, said the U.S. should have good corn and bean crops this year. “Neither crop is without risk between now and the end of kernel and pod fill because of a disease-ripe environment, but both crops have done some heavy lifting to build good yields.” Pro Farmer estimates the soybean crop at 4.246 billion bushels, with a national average yield of 53 bushels per acre, down from the 53.6 estimated in August by the USDA. 

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Consumer Confidence at 9 a.m. CDT

No other major economic reports scheduled.

Weather

A stationary front in the Southern Plains will continue to provide a band of rainfall across West Texas and Oklahoma through Tuesday morning before dissipating some during the afternoon and evening. Scattered showers will likely redevelop across these areas during the late overnight or early Wednesday morning. Much of the Midwest will remain mostly dry but cooler Tuesday.

Farmers Feeling the Fertilizer Price Squeeze

Farm groups are warning the White House that the tariff war is making already high fertilizer prices worse. That’s making it harder for farmers to afford to plant their typical amounts of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Politico said ag industry representatives have hesitated to publicly criticize President Trump’s tariff policies, but some have spent recent months quietly lobbying lawmakers and administration officials to ease the impact on fertilizer prices, which can make up over 30 percent of the input costs for row crop farmers. A recent letter from the National Corn Growers Association to administration officials like U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said fertilizer prices are approaching disastrous levels. When the president took office in January, the average tariff rate on all the key farmer inputs jumped from 0.9 percent to 12.2 percent in August. Some inputs, like pesticides, have risen by 20 percent or more since January. 

More Groups React to U.S.-EU Trade Framework

The Corn Refiners Association’s President and CEO, John Bode (BOH-dee), says his group is pleased to see American and European leaders continue prioritizing improved trade relations. “We appreciate the commitment to work together to address non-tariff barriers affecting trade in food and agricultural products and consult on the digitization of trade procedures, both opportunities to make it easier for America’s agricultural exporters, including U.S. corn refiners, to trade with their EU partners,” Bode said. Elsewhere, Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, said America’s farmers win when competition is fair, but also pointed out that there’s been nothing fair about the EU system. “To unlock the potential billions in new opportunities, U.S. dairy exporters need to see any new market access opportunities into the EU mirror those the EU enjoys when it ships butter, cheese, and other dairy products into the U.S. market,” Doud said. 

NCGA Staying Ahead of Mycotoxins

Corn growers are boosting efforts to stay ahead of rising mycotoxin risks by expanding a proven research model that’s delivered results for over a decade. The Aflatoxin Mitigation Center of Excellence (AMCOE) is now becoming the Mycotoxin Mitigation Center of Excellence, broadening its focus to address a full spectrum of mycotoxins, including aflatoxin, vomitoxin, and several others, before they can create bigger problems for U.S. corn. Mycotoxins are toxic compounds produced by mold that can lead to rejected loads, reduced prices, and lost market access. They are a significant threat to U.S. corn crops, serving up an estimated $1 billion in losses every year. This move will benefit corn growers through research focused on real-world, field-level risks, better testing, resistance traits, and management tools. The center will coordinate industry-wide efforts to protect the value of U.S. corn. It will also engage with and invest in the whole value chain solutions.

Farm Progress Show Celebrates a Milestone

It's a milestone for a show that many consider the “Super Bowl of Agriculture.” Matt Jungmann (YOUNG-man) of Farm Progress says the 2025 Farm Progress Show celebrates the 20th anniversary of Decatur, Iowa, becoming the show’s permanent home and alternating with Decatur (dee-KAY-tuhr), Iowa, as the show’s permanent locations. “We’re incredibly proud to celebrate two decades of agricultural innovation at our permanent sites,” said Jungmann. “What began with the excitement of paved streets has evolved into the premier showcase for cutting-edge agricultural technology and solutions.” The 2025 show, August 26-28 in Decatur, features several show highlights, including a new interactive drone program with demonstrations and educational opportunities for precision aerial applications. There will also be cover crop demonstration plots, a comprehensive ride-and-drive program, and many other highlights. The 2025 Farm Progress Show will continue to showcase comprehensive field demonstrations at the Decatur site. Corn was planted by mid-April to ensure optimal conditions. 

Prioritizing American Energy on National Forest Lands

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced a new directive prioritizing land use efficiency when evaluating proposals for power generation projects on National Forest System Lands. The policy strengthens American energy production and reduces reliance on foreign energy sources, like foreign adversary-manufactured solar panels, while protecting our lands for future generations. The Forest Service will develop new screening criteria that measure and prioritize the amount of energy produced per acre of land while ensuring projects are consistent with environmental stewardship, multiple-use principles, and economic benefits for rural communities. Projects demonstrating higher land use efficiency, producing more power with less land disturbance, will be prioritized. “America has the resources and ingenuity to power our future without depending on foreign adversaries,” Rollins said. “For too long, misguided federal policies have pushed unreliable energy projects that waste taxpayer dollars, and those days are over.” She also said every acre of federal land will now be managed “wisely.” 

California Almond Orchards Have a Rat Problem

The Central Valley of California produces a large number of almonds, and that area is being invaded by rats. A newsletter from the Almond Board of California says that a major rat infestation has caused potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in damage over the past year. In the San Joaquin (Wah-KEEN) Valley alone, more than 100,000 acres have been impacted so far. This adds up to a loss of between $109 million and $311 million. The issue began emerging unexpectedly last fall and may get worse without some form of intervention. Experts say the increased rat populations are due to drought-related farmland inactivity in the early 2020s, which halted pest control. Though farmland has recovered, stricter pesticide regulations have hindered effective rodent management by limiting several options that growers previously had. The Golden State grows all the nation’s commercially-produced almonds, as well as 75 percent of the world’s almond supply. 

Monday Watch List

Markets

Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CDT

Crop Progress at 3 p.m. CDT

Weather

A big batch of cold air has settled into much of the U.S. behind a strong cold front that moved through this weekend. Temperatures fell into the 30s for small parts of the Northern Plains. The front got hung up in the Southern Plains, though, and areas of rain will continue there on Monday, some of which may be heavy.

U.S. and EU Issue A Joint Statement on Trade Framework

The U.S. and the European Union announced that they’ve agreed on a Framework of an Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade. Among the key terms, the EU intends to eliminate tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods and provide preferential market access for a wide range of U.S. seafood and agricultural goods, including dairy products, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, soybean oil, pork, and other products. The U.S. commits to applying the higher of either the U.S. Most Favored Nation Tariff Rate or a tariff rate of 15 percent, comprised of the MFN tariff and a reciprocal tariff, on originating goods from the European Union. Among some of the other commitments, the U.S. and EU share one of the world’s largest economic relationships. European companies commit to invest an additional $600 billion across strategic U.S. sectors through 2028. They’ll also work to eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers. 

NPPC Optimistic About U.S.-EU Trade Framework

The White House announced a United States-European Union Framework on an “Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade.” The administration stated the Framework Agreement aims to resolve trade imbalances and maximize the U.S. and EU’s combined economic power in an ongoing process to improve market access and increase the U.S.-EU trade and investment relationship. National Pork Producers Council President Duane Stateler, an Ohio pork producer, thanked the administration for including U.S. pork, saying, “America’s pork producers are encouraged by the specific inclusion of pork in the U.S.-EU framework to address tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade.” For decades, the pork trade between the U.S. and the EU has been weighted to favor EU interests. In 2024, the U.S. exported $7 million worth of pork products to the EU while importing over $709 million from the EU. The U.S. currently exports more pork to Honduras than to the 27 countries in the EU. 

Indiana Farmland Prices Increase Despite Pressure

Indiana farmland prices have continued the trend of record highs in 2025. That’s according to the Purdue University Farmland Value and Cash Rents Survey. The survey found the average price of top-quality land reached $14,826 per acre, a three percent increase from June 2024. Average and poor-quality farmland also saw gains, with prices increasing 5.4 percent and 7.6 percent to $12,254 and $9,761 per acre, respectively. Unlike previous years, the survey indicates a mixture of increases and decreases in farmland values and cash rents across the region. Statewide, cash rents increased from 1.5 to 1.7 percent for poor, average, and top-quality land. The rent per bushel of corn for average-quality farmland was 1.32, and the rest as a percentage of farmland value was 2.2 percent, which was unchanged from the prior year. In both the Southwest and Southeast regions of Indiana, farmland values fell across all three quality grades.

NCGA: Stop Brazil Now and Fight for Farmers

The President of the National Corn Growers submitted comments on the U.S. Section 301 investigation into Brazil’s unfair trading practices, specifically on ethanol. Kenneth Hartman, Jr., outlined clear evidence in his comments demonstrating that Brazil’s ethanol tariff and other actions are unreasonable, discriminatory, and burden U.S. commerce. “Brazil has enjoyed preferential market conditions while erecting barriers that restrict and prevent access for American corn ethanol exporters,” Hartman said. “Brazil was once a top market for American ethanol exports, but its 18 percent tariff has eradicated this market.” Brazil is actively looking to unseat the historic and obvious success of the American corn industry by a series of trade actions that directly or indirectly harm U.S. corn growers. For many years, Brazil has taken measures to siphon market share from American ethanol exports and prevent U.S. access to the global synthetic aviation jet fuel market, which is a big opportunity ahead. 

Sheep Board Promotes Targeted Grazing

The American Lamb Board held a Targeted Grazing Workshop in Maryland, where 28 producers from nine states gathered to discuss opportunities for growing sheep production in the U.S. through solar grazing. This was the sixth workshop of its kind since the program began in 2024. “Providing educational opportunities for producers is one of the board’s strategic goals,” says ALB Chairman Jeff Ebert. “These grazing workshops have been successful in helping producers across the country learn about opportunities to graze sheep on solar projects as a way to increase herd size and maximize profitability.” The workshop curriculum focused on the details of contract grazing while also offering producers resources to adopt sheep management best practices on their farms. Attendees also had the chance to network and discuss different aspects of grazing programs. ALB will host two more Targeted Grazing Workshops in Colorado during September and another in Kentucky during October.

Peanut Council Gets New Leadership

The American Peanut Council named Lucas Blaustein as its next president and CEO. He succeeded Richard Owen and will join the APC on August 25, 2025. For the past seven years, Blaustein has served as a diplomat in the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, where he led teams, offices, and projects in Central Asia, the Arabian Gulf, Taiwan, and in Washington D.C. “Luke brings to APC an exceptional blend of global trade acumen, deep-rooted agricultural knowledge, and a bold vision for the future of the peanut industry,” said Anne-Marie DeLorenzo, APC 2025 board chair and the senior strategic sourcing manager at Mars Wrigley. “His leadership is dynamic and inclusive, and is grounded in a strong commitment to serving growers, shellers, manufacturers, and our allied members.” Blaustein has a Master of Agribusiness from Texas A & M University. “I’m honored to lead an organization that unites the entire U.S. peanut industry,” he said. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

A 9 a.m. CDT, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. We will watch for any new 8 a.m. flash sales announcements and updated Corn Belt weather forecasts. At 2:30 p.m., the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report will be released.

Weather

A strong cold front in the Northern Plains is producing some thunderstorms early Friday morning. That front will move into the Central Plains and Upper Midwest throughout the day, as the front clears much of the country this weekend. Though showers will be waning as the front moves through the Midwest, a significant drop in temperature will be noted to make it feel more like fall going into next week. The front will stall across the Southern Plains, where showers will be more numerous and possibly heavy going into next week.

Soybean Farmers “Can’t Survive” Another China Trade War

Industry reports say America’s soybean farmers are nearing a financial cliff and won’t survive another drawn-out trade war with China, one of the world’s biggest soybean buyers. Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, sent a letter to the White House urging the administration to reach a deal with China to remove the duties and, if possible, to include significant soybean buys. “U.S. soybean farmers can’t survive a prolonged dispute with our largest customer,” Ragland said. “Soybean farmers are under extreme financial stress as prices drop and costs for inputs and equipment continue to climb.” In response to a Bloomberg article, the White House said the president “cares about farmers.” Ragland’s letter points out that China hasn’t purchased any U.S. soybeans for the months ahead as America quickly approaches harvest. With no deal between China and the U.S., the extra bushels will make a bad situation much worse. 

Family Farms Make Up 95 Percent of All U.S. Farms

The 2022 Census of Agriculture Typology Report shows that family farms make up 95 percent of all U.S. farms. The report, released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service, focuses on the “family farm,” which is defined as any farm where the majority of the business is owned by the producer and individuals related to the producer. “Classifying America’s 1.9 million farms to better reflect their variety is critical to evaluating and reporting on U.S. agriculture,” said NASS Administrator Joseph Parson. “Typology allows us to more meaningfully explore the demographics of who is farming and ranching today as well as their impact on the economy and communities across the country.” The data shows that small family farms with income under $350,000 per year make up 85 percent of all U.S. farms. They also have 39 percent of the total land in farms, and 14 percent of the value of all agricultural products sold. 

Nebraska Senator Honored with the Golden Plow Award

The American Farm Bureau presented Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) with the AFBF’s Golden Plow Award. It’s the highest honor the organization presents to sitting members of Congress. “Senator Fischer understands first-hand what farm families across our nation are facing,” said Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall. “She’s lived life on the farm, running a cattle ranch while serving the people of Nebraska, first in the state legislature, and then in the U.S. Senate.” He also said Fischer’s unique perspective and real-world experience have guided her in championing issues that impact rural America, including regulatory reform, trade, taxes, and a modernized farm bill. “She embodies the spirit that the Golden Plow Award represents,” he added. The Nebraska Farm Bureau nominated her for the award in honor of her work on the Senate Agriculture Committee. “She’s never wavered in her support for farm and ranch families,” said Nebraska Farm Bureau President Mark McHargue. 

No More Sugarbeet Farming in California

California’s last factory that turns sugarbeets into sugar is shutting down after 78 years in business. The LA Times said the closure means the loss of hundreds of local jobs and the likely end of sugarbeet farming inside the state’s borders. The Southern Minnesota Beet Sugar Cooperative, which owns the plant based in Brawley, California, started decommissioning the plant in July. The cooperative will focus its resources on the more profitable plant it runs in Renville, Minnesota. Sugarbeets are root vegetables that contain high levels of sucrose and are used to produce more than half of the U.S. sugar supply alongside sugar cane. The beets grow in the Imperial Valley in southern California with the help of nutrient-rich soil and the Colorado River. This is a huge loss for the region because unemployment rates are high, and agriculture is the second-largest job creator. The closure eliminates 700 jobs and a $243-million industry.

Junior Hereford Association Members Gather in Missouri

The National Junior Hereford Association sent 84 members from 21 states to the Purina Animal Health Nutrition Center in Missouri for the 2025 Faces of Leadership Conference. Hosted in partnership with Purina, the event kicked off with a focus on exploring leadership through a personal lens, encouraging members to discover and develop their unique leadership styles while sharpening vital communication and team-building skills. “People want to follow leaders who stay humble, stay hungry, and always try to find better for those around them,” said Mike Matheny (mah-THEE-nee) of St. Louis, Missouri. Matheny, a former MLB catcher and manager, is also a leadership coach who inspires others through his faith-based approach to mentoring, team building, and character development. Conference participants enjoyed several unique learning experiences, including a hands-on leadership simulation led by the NJHA board of directors, roundtable discussions with American Hereford Association staff, and a “Bridging the Gap” college and career fair.

Farm Auction Averages More Than $36,000 an Acre

A 110-acre farm outside Dublin, Ohio, went up for sale on July 17. Successful Farming says the land broker expected strong interest, but it was nothing compared to the results. “I figured the land might go for around $20,000 an acre,” said Brandon Wilson, vice president of the Wilson National Real Estate and Auction Group. The auction far surpassed expectations by selling for an incredible $36,988 per acre average and brought in a total of $4,068,710. “I was shocked," Wilson said, “There was strong bidding throughout the entire auction." The land was divided into three tracts, with tracts one and two combined at 70 acres. The two tracts sold for $41,697 an acre, totaling $2,918,790. The third tract, made up of 40 acres, sold for $28,748 per acre, bringing in $1,419,920. Wilson estimates that about 15 people actively participated in the bidding, an unusually high number for a property split into three parcels. 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

At 7:30 a.m., Initial Jobless Claims and U.S. Grain Export sales will be released. At 8:45 a.m., we will see S & P Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI reports. Scheduled at 9 a.m. are Existing Home Sales and U.S. Leading Economic Indicators. We will also be watching for any new flash export sales at 8 a.m. and the Corn Belt weather forecast.

Weather

Hurricane Erin continues to make its closest pass to the East Coast on Thursday, brushing the Outer Banks of North Carolina, but being pushed out to sea later Thursday. A strong cold front is moving into the Northern Plains. In addition to scattered showers moving through the area, a burst of colder air will build in behind the front as well, sweeping through the majority of the country through the weekend.

Groups Want USTR Action Against Brazil

The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office launched a Section 301 investigation into Brazil for its unfair ethanol trade practices. Groups like Growth Energy called on the agency to take bold action on behalf of American ethanol producers, who face a competitive disadvantage bilaterally and globally due to Brazil’s discriminatory practices. “We appreciate the opportunity to provide input on ethanol market access challenges considering Brazil’s years-long effort to seek preferential treatment for its ethanol in the U.S. while limiting U.S. access into Brazil through tariff and non-tariff measures,” said Growth Energy Vice President of Regulatory Affairs Chris Bliley. Renewable Fuels Association President Geoff Cooper said Brazil’s tariff rates have had a demonstrable impact on America’s ethanol exports. “The imposition of tariffs without a duty-free quota in recent years has essentially closed the market,” Cooper said. “U.S. ethanol faces an 18 percent import tariff while Brazil enters America with only a 2.5 percent duty.”

Rollins Blocks Taxpayer Dollars for Solar Panels on Prime Farmland

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins said the USDA will no longer fund taxpayer dollars for solar panels on productive farmland or allow solar panels manufactured by foreign adversaries to be used in USDA projects. Subsidized solar farms have made it more difficult for farmers to access farmland by making it more expensive and less available. Within the last 30 years, Tennessee alone has lost over 1.2 million acres of farmland and is expected to lose two million acres by 2027. This problem isn’t just in Tennessee, because, since 2012, solar panels on farmland nationwide have increased by almost 50 percent. That’s why the Department took action. “Our prime farmland should not be wasted and replaced with Green New Deal-subsidized solar panels,” Rollins said. “One of the biggest barriers to entry for new and young farmers is access to land, and subsidized solar farms are making land much more expensive and less available.” 

Dairy Checkoff Champions “First 1,000 Days Strategy”

The Dairy Checkoff is doubling down on one of the most critical windows of human development, with its “First 1,000 Days” campaign. It’s a multichannel strategy that positions dairy as essential for optimal brain growth and cognitive development from conception through a child’s second birthday. The surround-sound campaign is designed to meet today’s parents where they are: in their social feeds, on trusted parenting platforms, through pediatric offices, in WIC clinics, and on digital search engines, all with content rooted in science, relevance, and personal connections. “The first 1,000 days set the foundation for a lifetime of health,” said Lindsay Datlow, senior vice president of nutrition affairs at the farmer-founded National Dairy Council. “Dairy foods like milk, cheese, and yogurt provide seven of the 14 nutrients identified by the American Academy of Pediatrics as vital during this period.” The initiative includes promotion across third-party media outlets and the checkoff’s USDairy.com site. 

Farm Credit Supporting Young Farmers

Farm Credit System Institutions made more than 150,000 loans to young, beginning, and small U.S. producers in 2024. A new Farm Credit Administration Report shows the institutional support for its ongoing mission of supporting rural communities and agriculture. “The future of agriculture depends on the next generation,” said Christy Seyfert, president and CEO of the Farm Credit Council. “We’re proud to deliver on our ongoing commitment to supporting young, beginning, and small producers as evidenced through this report.” During 2024, Farm Credit institutions made 150,156 loans to young, small, and beginning farmers, totaling $33.1 billion, which was more than half of all loans made last year. Through 2024, Farm Credit supported 50,143 loans to young producers who were 35 and under. More than 72,600 loans were made to beginning producers with ten years or less of experience, and 121,200 loans to producers with under $350,000 in gross cash farm income. 

USDA Issues August Livestock Report

Based on the mid-year cattle report, a further tightening is expected of calves available for placement in late 2025 and early 2026. The report also suggests steady but gradual changes to inventories of beef cows and replacement heifers. That means the 2025 and 2026 beef production forecasts were lowered from last month. Elsewhere, lamb prices moved sharply upward in June and July of this year, leading to higher lamb price forecasts for the rest of 2025 and 2026. Milk production is forecast to increase in 2025 and 2026, driven by larger herds and improved yields. The all-milk price remains unchanged at $22 per hundredweight. Pork production for 2025 is reduced by one percent from last month’s forecast to 27.7 billion pounds, reflecting a slower slaughter rate and reduced dressed weights in the third and fourth quarters. Projected broiler production in the poultry industry is expected to increase due to strong hatchery data and lower feed costs. 

Export Inspections Lower Across the Board

USDA data says that grain and soybean inspections for overseas delivery declined week-to-week during the seven days ending on August 14. Wheat assessments were reported at 395,240 metric tons, down from almost 415,000 last week but still higher than the same week last year. Corn inspections reached 1.05 million metric tons versus 1.52 million tons the previous week and the 1.22 million tons inspected last year. Examinations of soybeans for export reached just over 473,600 metric tons. USDA said that’s down from the 544,200 tons a week earlier, but higher than the 406,000 tons in 2024. So far, since the start of each commodity’s marketing year, the government has inspected 64.2 million metric tons of corn compared to 50.2 million last year, 48.9 million metric tons of soybeans compared to 43.8 million tons last year, and 4.81 million metric tons of wheat, an improvement from 4.64 million last year.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller speaks at 10 am CDT and at 1 pm, we get the minutes of the Fed's FOMC meeting in July. We will watch for more flash sales announcements at 8 am and updated Corn Belt weather. At 9:30 am, the EIA will release its weekly petroleum report, including ethanol production and stocks.

Weather

A weakened cold front continues to sag into the Southeast on Wednesday, where it is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, and will protect the East Coast from Hurricane Erin, which is making a pass well away from North Carolina Wednesday and Thursday. Another system in the Canadian Prairies is also producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. That storm system will be the start of a cooler weather pattern as a cold front sweeps through the country Thursday through the weekend with cold air to follow.

New USDA Plan to Push Back Against New World Screwworm Threat

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced the largest initiative yet in the USDA’s plan to combat the New World screwworm. Through a more comprehensive approach, USDA will construct a sterile fly facility in Edinburg, Texas, an ideal location due to the existing infrastructure and proximity to the U.S.-Mexican border. The plant will produce up to 300 million sterile flies per week to combat NWS. USDA will also invest $100 million in developing technology that could show rapid advancement in augmenting the U.S. sterile fly facility. USDA is also working to hire mounted patrol officers, called “tick riders,” at the border, who will provide the first line of defense against an outbreak along the border from wild animals. They will also begin training detector dogs to detect screwworm infestations in livestock and other animals along the border. USDA will also continue working closely with Mexican officials to slow the spread of NWS. 

Pro Farmer Crop Tour This Week is Counting Down to Harvest

One of the most important independent measurements of American crop production is well underway this week amid several challenges which are making it harder than ever to predict yield, one of the crucial statistics driving the Corn Belt’s economy. The 33rd annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour runs through August 21, and will send scouts to fields in seven states to measure corn and soybean potential. Lane Aakre (acre), Pro Farmer economist and eastern tour leader, says they’re eager to get out into the fields. “USDA is forecasting some huge numbers in states like Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, and South Dakota, based on satellite imagery and feedback from farmer surveys,” Aakre said. USDA no longer collects objective yield samples in August, so the Crop Tour is the first to broadly measure ear populations and pod counts from actual fields in the Corn Belt. They’ll pull more than 1,600 corn and 1,600 soybean samples.

Cattle Producers Applaud Next Steps in Screwworm Fight

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association announced its continued support of the USDA’s aggressive plan to combat the spread of New World screwworm by ramping up construction of a sterile fly distribution facility alongside a production facility in Texas. “We commend President Trump and Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins for their swift action in combating a threat like NWS,” said NCBA CEO Colin Woodall. “USDA’s collaboration with Texas in building sterile fly production and distribution facilities at Moore Air Force Base in Texas marks a critical step in stopping the spread of the screwworm and protecting the American cattle herd.” He also said producing flies domestically under American oversight will overcome supply challenges in Mexico and Central America, strengthening the U.S. battle against New World screwworm, and protecting herds on both sides of the Mexican and U.S. border. Screwworm larvae burrow into the flesh of living animals, causing serious and often fatal damage.

New Study on Red Meat and Obesity Shows No Link

Recent beef checkoff-funded research adds to a growing body of evidence reinforcing the important role fresh beef plays in a healthy, sustainable diet. Animal-sourced foods like red meat are often associated with obesity risk. However, Texas Tech University researchers conducted a comprehensive analysis of available research on the relationship between unprocessed red meat intake and obesity, finding no significant effect of such intake on weight gain or related metabolic issues in adults. The researchers found that beef contains high-quality protein and other essential nutrients, and people enjoy it as a key source of nourishment, but they’re often discouraged from consuming red meat based on recommendations primarily driven by observational evidence. The Texas Tech study is the first to fully review the totality of causative evidence, which shows no protective or adverse effect of unprocessed red meat intake on obesity. The NCBA and the Texas Beef Council funded the research. 

Corridors to Trade Can Support Nigeria’s Protein Needs

The U.S. Soybean Export Council hosted its signature “Nigeria: NOW” conference this month, bringing together stakeholders across the government and private sectors, including poultry producers, nutritionists, and more. Participants discussed multiple topics, including how to address Nigeria’s protein gap, trade, and economic growth. Speaking at the event, Acting U.S. Consul General JoEllen Gorg said, ”The U.S. Soybean Export Council’s conference marks a pivotal milestone in creating a pathway for mutual prosperity and shared economic success. By addressing Nigeria’s protein gap, fostering innovation, and promoting best practices, the U.S. soy industry is helping to build a resilient agricultural sector in Nigeria, ensuring long-term food security and economic stability.” USSEC said it’s enthusiastic about the opportunities arising from the collaboration with the U.S. Mission in Nigeria. It’s crucial in helping export-ready U.S. companies build relationships with Nigerian agribusinesses, training Nigerians in new agricultural practices, and promoting U.S. soy in Nigeria’s feed and food.

U.S. Government Sues California Over Emissions

The U.S. government sued California to stop it from enforcing stringent emission standards for heavy-duty trucks that President Trump recently declared void. In complaints filed this week in two federal courts, the Justice Department said federal law preempts the California Air Resources Board from enforcing various emissions rules governing heavy-duty trucks and engines. That includes the Clean Truck Partnership, an initiative with manufacturers designed to advance California’s goal of lowering emissions, while giving the truck-making industry the flexibility to meet emissions requirements. The Justice Department recently sued after a House committee learned that staff at the California Air Resources Board won’t let manufacturers bring vehicles to market unless they comply with California’s preempted standards. “This ongoing defiance of federal law must stop,” the department said. California’s rules regarding light-duty vehicles are also preempted.” Reuters said the California Air Resources Board declined to comment, as did California Governor Gavin Newsom’s office.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Housing starts for July at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Census of Agriculture at 11 a.m. CDT

Weather

A weak cold front continues to push south through the middle of the country on Tuesday. Areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue near and south of the front throughout the day. Some pockets of stronger storms, severe weather, and heavy rain are all possible. Temperatures are falling slightly behind the front, but still hot ahead of it.

Sources Confirm No Screwworm Infections in Oklahoma or Texas

The social media world was buzzing about possible New World screwworm infections in southern states like Oklahoma and Texas. Oklahoma State Veterinarian Dr. Rod Hall says there have been a handful of samples submitted to Oklahoma labs for testing whether the maggot samples are screwworms. Another sample came in from Iowa, too. In every case so far, Dr. Hall said the maggots are not New World screwworms. Oklahoma Farm Report also reached out to Michael Kelsey of the Oklahoma State Cattlemen’s Association, and he further confirmed there are currently no screwworm infections in the U.S. Most samples sent in so far are from blowflies. Dr. Hall also said that Mexico hasn’t seen any new cases of NWS since the initial positive test. Dr. Hall said, “There have been no new cases of New World screwworm in that area, 370 miles south of Texas, for the last several weeks. 

Draft MAHA Report Shows No Pesticide Restrictions

A draft of the upcoming MAHA report seen by the New York Times will not propose direct restrictions on ultra-processed foods and pesticides that HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., called “major threats.” If it is adopted, the report on the health of America’s children will be good news for the food and agriculture industries, which feared much more restrictive proposals than the ones currently outlined in the draft. Kennedy, the Health and Human Services Secretary, has sought to change the nation’s diet by pushing the industries to make major changes through his “Make America Healthy Again” movement. The New York Times said industry regulators will work with ag stakeholders to make sure the public is aware of and confident in existing pesticide review procedures. However, it also said the administration will back research on technologies to help farmers reduce pesticide use and on the health impacts on the public.

FARM Program Wants Nominations for Advisory Council

The National Dairy Farmers Assuming Responsible Management (FARM) Program is looking for nominations for its FARM Farmer Advisor Council, uplifting farmer voices and helping shape the future of the FARM Program. FARM will accept nominations until September 15, with new members notified of their spots on the Council by October 15. “Farmer input is critical for serving the collective industry to the best of our ability,” said Meggan Hain, chief veterinary officer for the National Dairy FARM Program. “Through the FARM Advisory Council, farmers have the opportunity to represent their community and help shape the program, producing FARM Program standards that meet market needs and are practical for dairy farmers.” The FARM Farmer Advisory Council serves as a unified voice of the dairy producer community related to on-farm social responsibility areas. A FARM Program participant may nominate two dairy farmers. Visit the FARM Program website for eligibility criteria and more information.

Oil Group Challenges Trump Plan to Cut Biofuel Import Credits

A top U.S. oil trade group is opposing a government proposal to cut incentives for biofuel imports. The group joined multiple organizations in pushing back against the administration’s resolve to keep the policy in the months ahead. The criticism will force the Trump administration to either side, with farmers looking to protect and prioritize domestic supplies or refiners chasing cheaper feedstock. Both are groups loyal to President Trump. A June Environmental Protection Agency proposal would set aside only half as many tradeable renewable fuel credits to imported biofuels and biofuel feedstocks as it will for domestic ones. The bio-based diesel industry relies on imports to meet federal mandates. The change in policy could be finalized by the end of 2025. The soybean industry argues that the Renewable Fuel Standard was meant to boost domestic production. However, the oil industry says the U.S. lacks enough feedstock to meet federal quotas without imports. 

Wheat Exports to Rebound in the Year Ahead

U.S. wheat exports for 2025-2026 are forecast to increase by 25 million bushels this month, the highest since 2020-2021, based on a strong pace of export sales and competitive pricing. Hard Red Winter Wheat exports are forecast to rise by 300 million bushels, with total commitments almost double from a year ago. That’s based on information from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service Export Sales Database. With competitive pricing compared to other exporters, HRW sales have expanded to a wide variety of markets, most notably to Nigeria, Mexico, Venezuela, and Bangladesh. Export sales of Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRW) and Durum are running slightly ahead of last year, and total exports of those classes are forecast to increase during the marketing year. Conversely, sales of Hard Red Spring (HRS) and White currently lag behind last year’s pace and are forecast to be lower year to year. Total 2025-2026 wheat production is forecast at 1.927 billion bushels.

Lamb Board Returns to Solar Farm Summit

The American Lamb Board cosponsored an exhibit with the American Sheep Industry Association and the American Solar Grazing Association during the 2025 Solar Farm Summit in Chicago. The Solar Farm Summit is a conference and expo focused on dual-use projects connecting solar power and agricultural production. ALB, along with ASI and ASGA, participated with over 70 exhibitors at this event, which aims to create dual-use land opportunities by combining solar power development with agricultural production – or agrivoltaics. “Exhibiting at the Solar Farm Summit is an excellent opportunity for the sheep industry to explore new grazing options that are profitable for producers,” said ALB Chairman Jeff Ebert. “In addition, it was great to see multiple organizations come together to represent the interests of sheep producers from across the country.” ALB also shared literature showcasing land stewardship provided by shepherds and their families who graze pastures to enhance landscapes and improve habitat.

Monday Watch List

Markets

There are no government economic reports Monday other than the Homebuilder Confidence Index. Grain Inspections will be released at 10 a.m. CDT, while the Crop Progress report is due out at 3 p.m. Monday. We will also watch for updated and extended weather forecasts and any new flash export sales at 8 a.m.

Weather

A little system will be moving across the North-Central states on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are already going through Iowa and southern Minnesota Monday morning. Additional rainfall will continue across these areas throughout the day. Some thunderstorms may contain strong wind gusts and heavy rain that could produce flooding.

Ag Land Market Remains Resilient

Despite ongoing challenges, agricultural land values have remained remarkably stable through mid-2025. According to the Farmers National Company, the resilience is mainly driven by simple supply and demand; there are more motivated buyers than willing sellers. While producers remain the main buyers of ag land, interest from individual and institutional investors can’t be ignored. As land values stabilize after the peaks of the last five years, investors are increasingly attracted to the annual returns and long-term appreciation. Farm Credit Services of America says benchmark Midwest farmland values increased 57 percent over the past five years and 39 percent over the past decade. Inventory remains limited, with listings down 25 percent from the peak in 2020-2021. “While producer balance sheets generally remain strong, any negative movements in the ag economy could quickly impact the land market,” said Paul Shadegg, (SHA-degg), the senior vice president of real estate operations at Farmers National. 

Can Large-Scale Solar Coexist with Agriculture in Rural America?

Local opposition to utility-scale solar installations in rural areas is growing following the rapid pace of new solar developments in recent years. Land use concerns in areas largely dominated by agricultural production are fueling much of the community-level resistance. A new CoBank report says solar expansion could deliver the fastest, most affordable means for increasing the nation’s razor-thin energy reserves while driving new revenue streams for rural communities. CoBank says concerns around the pace of solar development in rural areas and the implications for land use in agricultural regions are warranted. A recent analysis by USA Today found that about 15 percent of U.S. counties have some form of restriction on building new utility-scale solar energy projects. American Farmland Trust says more than 80 percent of new solar development will take place on agricultural lands over the next 20 years, with almost half that development on what’s considered “prime” land. 

U.S. Soy and Vietnam Celebrate 30 Years of Collaboration

The U.S. Soybean Export Council commemorated three decades of partnership between U.S. Soy and Vietnam with milestones including a Memorandum of Understanding and a keystone conference. The event highlighted the strength of the countries’ enduring relationship and its role in supporting Vietnam’s food, feed, and livestock sectors. The agreement aims to strengthen trade ties, foster industry collaboration, and enhance awareness of U.S. Soy sustainability programs, such as the U.S. Soy Sustainability Assurance Protocol. The MOU is the latest in a series reaffirming the two countries’ shared commitment to mutually beneficial trade. During a trade mission sponsored by USSEC in June, Vietnam’s Minister of Agriculture and Environment signed MOUs with USSEC members and other companies to purchase more than $1.4 billion in U.S. agricultural products like soybeans, corn, wheat, meat, distiller’s grains with solubles, and timber. U.S. Soy plays a critical role in supporting Vietnam’s pork, poultry, aquaculture, and soybean oil industries. 

Coalition Applauds Historic Listing of Hemp Seed Meal for Laying Hens

The Hemp Feed Coalition announced that hemp seed meal for laying hens was published in the Association of American Feed Control Officials’ main publication. The milestone comes two years after the organization’s Ingredient Definition Committee voted to approve hemp seed meal for this use, marking a hard-earned victory for hemp and poultry producers nationwide. Despite the achievement, HFC and its members stress that the regulatory path to the market for hemp feed remains riddled with bureaucratic obstacles. Because the Association of Feed Company Officials’ approval alone doesn’t grant automatic state-level acceptance, companies serving the feed market have to navigate a cumbersome, state-by-state registration process. Even after the approval vote in January 2024, many state regulators denied or stalled applications for hemp feed until it appeared in the Official Publication,” said Morgan Tweet, CEO of IND HEMP. “These delays have nothing to do with science or safety; it’s purely bureaucracy standing in the way.”  

National FFA Foundation Recognized as Foundation of the Year

The National FFA Foundation has been recognized as the Indianapolis Business Journal’s inaugural Foundation of the Year for 2025. The Foundation was recognized at the Nonprofit Excellence Awards Ceremony. ”We are honored to be selected as the IBJ’s Foundation of the Year,” said Molly Ball, National FFA Foundation President. “The Foundation plays a unique and vital role in building the pipeline of skilled workers and leaders in the agriculture, food, and natural resource industries, and it exemplifies what it means to lead with purpose, invest with vision, and impact lives.” In 2024, the Foundation helped power an extraordinary milestone, resulting in 1,027,273 student members in the National FFA Organization, representing a nearly 22 percent increase since 2022. This record-breaking year of growth reflects both demand and trust – a growing demand for agricultural education and leadership opportunities, and continuing trust in the Foundation’s ability to steward resources and deliver meaningful results.

2024 Assessment of BQ-9000 Biodiesel Properties

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory announced the findings of the “Assessment of BQ-9000 Biodiesel Properties for 2024.” It’s the eighth in a series of annual reports documenting the quality of biodiesel from U.S. and Canadian producers participating in the industry’s voluntary BQ-9000 accreditation program. The study evaluates fuel quality parameters within the ASTM and Canadian CAN/CGSB specifications. Developed in partnership with Clean Fuels Alliance America, the report analyzes monthly quality data provided by  BQ-9000-accredited producers throughout 2024. The study evaluates critical fuel quality parameters like viscosity, octane number, kinetic viscosity, carbon residue, and the presence of metals like sodium, potassium, calcium, and magnesium. “This report demonstrates that the quality of biodiesel supplied by a BQ-9000 accredited producer exceeds the limits of the consensus global specification from ASTM International.” The 2024 Assessment of BQ-9000 Biodiesel Properties underscores the program’s critical role in advancing the adoption of higher biodiesel blends in diesel applications.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Government reports include U.S. Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization and Consumer Sentiment. We'll be watching for additional flash export sales at 8 am. Cattle on Feed report is at 2 pm. At 2:30 pm, the CFTC Commitment of Traders report will be released.

Weather

A front that moved into the Northern Plains on Thursday is stretching out across the northern U.S. on Friday and will be producing periods of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Some areas of severe weather and heavy rain will be possible while temperatures increase south of the front.

Crop Insurance Deadline Drawing Closer

The USDA reminds agricultural producers that the final date to apply for or make changes to their existing crop insurance coverage is quickly approaching for fall-planted crops. Sales closing dates vary by crop and location, but the next major sales closing dates are September 1 and September 30. Producers are encouraged to visit their crop insurance agent soon to learn specific details for the 2026 crop year. Crop insurance coverage decisions must be made on or before the applicable sales closing date. The USDA’s Risk Management Agency lists sales closing dates in the Actuarial Information Browser, under the “Dates” tab. Producers can also access the RMA Information Reporting System tool to specifically identify applicable dates for their operation, using the “Insurance Offer Reports” application. Federal crop insurance is critical to the farm safety net. It helps producers and owners manage revenue risks and strengthens the U.S. rural economy. 

U.S. Combine Sales Continue to Decline while Canadian Sales Rise

Recent data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers showed Canadian sales of combines grew 11.4 percent in July 2025 compared to July of last year. Canadian sales of two-wheel-drive tractors also increased slightly, growing three percent in July 2025 compared to July 2024. U.S. sales of combines fell 43 percent, while total agricultural tractor sales fell by 4.9 percent in July 2025 compared to last year. “While we are encouraged by the modest growth in Canadian combine and tractor sales, the significant declines in the U.S. reflect ongoing caution in the marketplace,” said AEM Senior Vice President Curt Blades. “We believe North American farmers are carefully evaluating their capital assets and taking a measured approach to equipment purchases, balancing operational needs with broader economic uncertainty.” The biggest drop in the U.S. was in self-propelled combine sales, dropping almost 44 percent from July 2024 (638 sold) to 2025 (359).  

Corn Growers Want Action After USDA Report

The National Corn Growers Association is intensifying its call for action from Congress and the administration after the USDA’s WASDE report projected a 16.7-billion-bushel corn crop this year. That further threatens the livelihood of farmers already facing record-low corn prices. “Corn growers are already marketing their corn for extremely low corn prices, and this massive projected corn supply without market-based solutions to increasing corn demand is already causing corn prices to drop further,” said NCGA President Kenneth Hartman, Jr. “Because we need markets fast for this supply, we are redoubling our call for Congress to pass legislation that allows year-round consumer access to E15.” NCGA also points out that this solution comes at no cost to consumers, requires no additional infrastructure developments, and would generate demand for 457 million additional bushels of corn. NCGA is also pushing the administration to quickly broker additional trade agreements and finalize details on others. 

Farmers Applaud Common-Sense Fix for Diesel Engines

American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall commented on the EPA’s announcement that it will revise Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) guidelines for manufacturers of heavy trucks and off-road equipment. Manufacturers will be directed to update the software in equipment that uses DEF to prevent them from losing power. “Farm Bureau thanks the EPA and Administrator Zeldin for their common-sense approach to heavy trucks and off-road equipment that uses Diesel Exhaust Fluid,” Duvall said. “When a vehicle runs out of DEF or there is an error in the software, it loses power, causing delays that could be the difference between getting a crop harvested or animals to their destination.” He also said the agency’s decision to grant a grace period to make repairs or refill DEF is the right thing to do, which keeps farmers in the field and commerce moving. Since 2010, diesel trucks and tractors have used DEF to reduce emissions of nitrous oxides. 

Beef Production Drops More Than Expected

The USDA said beef output will fall more than previously expected in 2025 and 2026 amid reduced slaughter and lower dressed weights. Production this year is now forecast at 25.926 billion pounds. If realized, that would be down almost four percent year over year. The USDA last month estimated beef output to be 26.18 billion pounds. For 2026, production is now forecast at 25.47 billion pounds, down 1.8 percent on an annual basis and down from the July outlook of 25.815 billion pounds. Pork output is expected to fall this year after previous expectations for an increase. Production in 2025 is now predicted to be 27.747 billion pounds, a decrease from the previous year’s output of 27.789 billion pounds. In 2026, pork output is projected at 28.38 billion pounds, a one percent year-over-year increase but down from the previous month’s forecast. Prices for steers, barrows, and gilts are all expected to rise. 

Applications Open for WD Farr Scholarship Program

Graduate students pursuing careers in meat science and animal science are encouraged to apply for the annual W.D. Farr Scholarship program. Established in 2007 by the National Cattlemen’s Foundation, the scholarship recognizes outstanding graduate students committed to advancing the beef industry. Eligible students must apply online by submitting a cover letter, curriculum vitae, description of the applicant’s goals and experience, a short essay, a statement of belief in the industry, as well as a review of the applicant’s graduate research and three letters of recommendation by September 19, 2025. The 2025 scholarship winners will be recognized at CattleCon 2026, February 3-5, in Nashville, Tennessee. The scholarship honors the successful career of the late W.D. Farr, a third-generation Colorado native, pioneer rancher, statesman, and banker who was known for his extraordinary vision. His dedication to improving agriculture, livestock, and water development resulted in significant and positive changes to farming methods.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m.CDT

Producer Price Index Data for July at 7:30 a.m. CDT

ERS Feed and Commodity Outlooks at 2 p.m. CDT

Weather

A weakened cold front has moved into the Southeast where showers continue Thursday. Another front is moving into the Northern Plains and will produce areas of showers and thunderstorms as well. Temperatures are increasing south of the front going into the weekend.

China Tariff Truce Extended

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday extending a deadline for higher tariffs on Chinese imports until November. Officials from the U.S. and China first ended tariff tit-for-tat in May after duty rates on both sides reached triple digits. The latest deadline was set to expire on Tuesday (today). The executive order sets the new deadline for higher duties on November 10. “The U.S. continues to have discussions with China to address the lack of trade reciprocity in our economic relationship and our resulting national and economic security concerns,” the order reads. “Through these discussions, China continues to take significant steps toward remedying non-reciprocal trade arrangements and addressing the concerns of the United States.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the two sides are expected to meet later this year to continue discussions. Over the weekend, the president said he’s hopeful China will “quadruple” its U.S. soybean purchases. 

Legal Victory Protects Cattle Producers from Emissions Regulations

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association notched a legal victory affirming protections for cattle farmers and ranchers from onerous and unnecessary air emissions reporting requirements. NCBA and a coalition of farm groups have engaged in the litigation for years to ensure that family farmers and ranchers were not forced to file complex, overreaching reports with the federal government about emissions under the Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act (EPCRA) and the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). “CERCLA and EPCRA were intended to address the worst industrial and toxic chemicals, not govern family farms and ranches,” said Kaitlynn Glover, executive director of the Public Lands Council. ‘The decision affirms that family cattle producers shouldn’t have to file reports for a natural, biological process under a law meant for significant chemical contaminants.” She also said NCBA and the other groups “stepped up” to protect family farms and ranches through this litigation. 

Mexico Sets Minimum Export Prices for Fresh Tomatoes

Mexico has set minimum export prices for its fresh tomatoes to protect its domestic production and ensure internal supply after a bilateral agreement with the U.S. expired. Mexico’s economy and agriculture ministries made the announcement in a joint statement after Washington withdrew from a 2019 deal between the two countries, which regulated Mexican tomato exports to the U.S. On July 14, the Trump administration announced a duty of about 17 percent on fresh tomato imports from Mexico. The new pricing rules apply exclusively to definitive exports, but they don’t restrict export volumes or impose maximum prices. The Mexican ministries said prices will be reviewed every year or sooner if market conditions suddenly demand it. “This action reinforces the government’s commitment to agricultural competitiveness, dignified rural employment, and food sovereignty,” the ministries said. Minimum export prices per kilogram include $1.70 for cherry and grape tomatoes and 88 cents for Roma tomatoes. 

Largest GPS Network for Drones in Agriculture Launches

FreshMiners Company in the Netherlands launched a GPS service that enables accurate positioning for agriculture, construction, and drone navigation. The Dutch Company launched a service for extra-accurate GPS. It’s intended for drone pilots, farmers, and others. With the new technology, users can correct their GPS positions down to the centimeter. Real-time correction signals are sent to the user’s GPS via a global network of base stations. This correction is essential for applications in agriculture, land surveying, and drone navigation, among other tasks. In the Netherlands, 60 percent of arable farmers now use precision technologies like RTK corrections for sowing, fertilizing, and harvesting. The number of commercial drone operators in the country is also growing by double digits every year. At the EU level, the market for precision agriculture is estimated at more than three billion euros in 2025. The expected annual growth rate is over ten percent until 2030. 

Corn for Export Inspections Rise Week-to-Week

Inspections of corn for overseas delivery rose in the seven days that ended on August 7, while wheat and soybean assessments declined. USDA data said corn inspections were reported at 1.49 million metric tons, topping the previous week’s total of 1.28 million tons. The agency said that was higher than the 986,000 tons examined during the same week last year. Wheat assessments dropped to 365,486 metric tons from almost 690,000 tons the prior week and 669,000 at the same point in 2024. Examinations of soybeans for export also fell, dropping to 518,000 metric tons from 628,110 tons. But last week’s total was higher than the 350,000 tons inspected during the same week last year. Since the start of the marketing year, the government has inspected 63.1 million metric tons of corn, soybean assessments are now at 48.4 million metric tons, and wheat inspections now stand at 4.37 million metric tons. 

USDA Predicting a Large 2025 Corn Crop

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports say the 2025-2026 U.S. corn outlook shows sharply higher supplies, greater domestic use and exports, plus larger ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 16.7 billion bushels, with the yield at 188.8 bushels per acre. With supplies rising more than usage, ending stocks are up by 457 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers dropped 30 cents to $3.90 a bushel. The outlook for U.S. soybeans includes lower beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, with yield predicted to be 53.6 bushels per acre. Ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, 20 million below last month. The season-average price is unchanged at $10.10 a bushel. The 2025-2026 wheat outlook is for slightly tighter supplies, reduced domestic use, higher exports, and smaller ending stocks. The season-average price dropped ten cents to $5.30. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

There are no government economic reports on Wednesday, but several speeches by Federal Reserve presidents are scheduled so we could get some ideas on interest rates. Traders will be watching for the EIA's latest ethanol numbers and any new export sales announced at 8 am.

Weather

A cold front is losing its punch as it moves southeast through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. Scattered showers should develop, but more gaps in the precipitation are expected. Still, some areas of heavy rain there and through the Southeast are possible Wednesday. Another front will be moving into the Northern Plains as a system moves through the Canadian Prairies as well. Additional showers and thunderstorms are also forecast there.

Lawmakers in Early “Skinny Farm Bill” Discussions

Several key agriculture programs that Republicans didn’t get in the reconciliation bill will expire soon. Punchbowl says a farm bill battle is coming in the fall because Republicans will likely need Democrats’ help to construct a smaller farm bill. While the One Big Beautiful Bill took care of much of the farm bill, the deep cuts in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program will make it harder to get the legislation over the finish line. “I still think there’s hope,” said Senate Ag Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar at Farmfest in Minnesota. “There’s hope, because we still have other work to do.” In the House, Ag Chair GT Thompson wants to release some legislative text in September, but that will depend on how quickly the staff work gets done in August. Ranking Member Angie Craig said they’re in the “very early stages” of discussing what they’d like to see in the skinny farm bill.

World’s First SAF Plant Will Start Operations This Year

After several delays, the world’s first sustainable aviation fuel factory will start operating before the end of 2025. Bloomberg said the factory, owned by LanzaJet, Inc., will make green jet fuel from ethanol. The $200 million facility, located in rural Georgia, was scheduled to begin commercial production in 2024. Now, it’s expected to begin production by the end of September. The latest delay was the result of equipment issues. LanzaJet is being closely watched as a potential barometer for success in the ethanol-to-jet fuel industry. The company imported Brazilian sugarcane ethanol in 2024 to pilot production, but more than a year later, it has yet to sell its jet fuel onto the open market. “I hope that by the end of the third quarter, we are fully operational,” said LanzaJet Chief Executive Officer Jimmy Samartzis. “The modifications we made to the equipment hindering us should satisfy what we need to do.”

Clean Fuels Asks EPA to Sustain Robust Biodiesel Volumes

Clean Fuels Alliance America filed comments with the Environmental Protection Agency on the “Proposed Renewable Fuel Standards for 2026 and 2027.” Clean Fuels expressed appreciation for the EPA’s intent to provide consistent RFS growth in recognition of U.S. farmers’, feedstock providers’, and biomass-based producers’ investments in new capacity. EPA proposes a robust step-change in biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuel volumes beginning in 2026. The agency projects the requirement to reach 5.61 billion gallons in 2026, which is more than two billion gallons higher than in 2025. “The proposal is a welcome signal to U.S. farmers and biofuel producers, and we are ready to meet these higher volumes with domestically-produced fuel,” Clean Fuels said in the comments. Kurt Kovarik, Clean Fuels Vice President of Federal Affairs, said, “The industry supplied over five billion gallons of biodiesel, renewable diesel, and SAF in 2024, and we’re poised to deliver more in 2026.” 

Modernizing OJ Regulations to Benefit U.S. Growers

The USDA and the Food and Drug Administration announced plans to support American citrus growers and cut bureaucratic barriers by proposing an update to the standard of identity (SOI) for pasteurized orange juice. This action will end a 60-year-old rule hurting domestic farmers and forcing reliance on imports. Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins said it’s a big win for citrus growers. “Florida’s orange growers have faced years of hardships from hurricanes, greening, and burdensome regulations that no longer reflect the realities of today’s crop,” Rollins said. “This change is a commonsense reform that cuts red tape, strengthens our domestic supply chain, and ensures more American oranges end up in American breakfast glasses.” The proposal would reduce the minimum Brix level, a measure of dissolved sugar content, in pasteurized orange juice from 10.5 to 10 percent. That means more American oranges will meet the requirement, and fewer imports will be necessary.