U.S.-China Trade Tensions Cost Farmers $2 Billion

United States and China tensions and the resulting tariffs cost U.S. farmers $2 billion in lost exports this year. A new study from North Dakota State University’s Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies says the lost sales to China far surpass modest gains elsewhere. From January to April, agricultural exports to China contracted by over $5 billion, leaving export volumes up to 55 percent lower than the previous year. U.S. ag exports to South Asia, the European Union, and Central America climbed by 43, 39, and 24 percent, respectively. However, U.S. gains didn’t get high enough to offset the losses in the Chinese market. Both countries reduced tariffs as part of a deal negotiated in Switzerland. However, the U.S. preserved a baseline ten percent tariff on Chinese products and a 20 percent tariff applied over China’s role in the fentanyl crisis. Beijing has a ten percent tariff in place.

Tim Tebow to Keynote the American Farm Bureau National Convention

The American Farm Bureau announced that former college and NFL quarterback Tim Tebow will keynote the 2026 AFBF annual convention. He’ll speak during the closing session of the 2026 convention on Monday, January 12, 2026, in Anaheim, California. Tebow is a two-time national champion, Heisman Trophy winner, College Football Hall of Fame inductee, first-round NFL draft pick, and a former professional baseball player. More than that, he’s a five-time New York Times best-selling author, speaker, and college football analyst, but is most passionate about his work with the Tim Tebow Foundation. The foundation’s mission is to bring faith, hope, and love to those needing a brighter day in the darkest hour of need. The foundation is currently fighting for some of the most vulnerable people around the world. He'll inspire convention attendees with his unique approach to leadership, growth, and success. The Farm Bureau Convention is January 9-14, 2026, in Anaheim, California.

Appeals Court Upholds RFS Set Challenge

Growth Energy applauded a ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C., that defended the RFS Set. The decision rejected an attempt by oil industry interests to undermine the Renewable Fuel Standard, a program requiring refiners to include a certain amount of biofuels in the nation’s fuel blend. “The oil industry’s arguments in this case were fatally flawed and relied on tenuous legal arguments that ran contrary to the facts and plain language of the RFS statute,” said Growth Energy in a statement. Oil and environmental groups challenged EPA’s RFS Set Rule, which established Renewable Volume Obligations for 2023-2025, on various grounds. In its ruling late last week, the country rejected most of their claims, finding that the challenges were without merit. The decision also remands the rule back to the EPA and the Fish and Wildlife Service to better explain its conclusions while allowing the set rule to remain. 

Rollins Rescinds Roadless Rule

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins is rescinding the 2001 Roadless Rule. Rescinding the rule will remove prohibitions on road construction, reconstruction, and timber harvest on nearly 59 million acres of the National Forest System, allowing fire prevention and responsible timber production. This rule is overly restrictive and poses real harm to millions of acres of U.S. national forests. In total, 30 percent of National Forest System lands are impacted by the rule. For example, almost 60 percent of forest service land in Utah is restricted from road development and is unable to be managed for fire risk. That number in Montana is 58 percent. “This move opens a new era of consistency and sustainability for our nation’s forests,” said Rollins. “It is abundantly clear that properly managing our forests preserves them from devastating fires and allows future generations of Americans to enjoy and reap the benefits of this great land.” 

Beginning Farmer Institute Registration Deadline Extended

There is still time to apply to the Beginning Farmer Institute from the National Farmers Union. The registration deadline has been extended to July 15, 2025. The Institute is a free, ten-week farm business management program. It’s a comprehensive course designed to strengthen the long-term success and resilience of farms and ranches across the country. From October through December, participants will have weekly online trainings led by farm business management experts and engage in peer-to-peer learning. Participants who complete all the necessary course requirements will be considered for an additional in-person session the following spring, which will include additional trainings, farm tours, and networking opportunities with the National Farmers Union’s leadership team. The Beginning Farmer Institute is open to any U.S. producer over 18. Applicants must currently be farming or ranching at a for-profit operation. Operations of any size and type may apply.

May Egg Production Drops Six Percent

A USDA report says May egg output dropped year over year, as did the number of total egg layers in the U.S. Production fell to 8.59 billion eggs last month, down six percent year over year. About 7.3 billion were table eggs, and 1.29 billion were hatching eggs. Of the hatching eggs, 1.18 billion were broiler-type. USDA also said the number of egg layers in the U.S. on June 1 totaled 350 million, a six percent drop from the same date last year. Approximately 285 million layers produced table or market eggs, 60.3 million laid broiler-type hatching eggs, and 4.13 million produced egg-type hatching eggs. The rate of production averaged 79 eggs per 100 layers, a slight decrease from June 2024. Hatchings in May included 60.9 million egg-type chicks, an eight percent increase from the same month last year. Eggs in incubators jumped 11 percent to 59.6 million.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

New home sales at 9 a.m. CDT

EIA Petroleum Status Report including weekly ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CDT

Weather

A dome of high pressure continues to produce high heat and humidity for much of the southern and eastern U.S. for Wednesday. On the edge of the heat across the north, a stalled front will produce areas of showers and thunderstorms that could produce some heavy rainfall and severe weather. Extreme humidity in the heat dome should produce isolated thunderstorms elsewhere, which may be severe in the Southeast.

U.S. Cattle on Feed Down One Percent

The USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report said cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.4 million on June 1, 2025. That inventory level was one percent below June 1, 2024, which fell within most of the industry’s pre-report expectations. Industry experts called the report neutral to slightly friendly but continue to point to a tight supply picture for the cattle market. Drovers says several states continue to see inventory well below last year, such as Texas at 93 percent and Colorado at 96 percent of 2024. On the other end, Nebraska was 104 percent compared to 2024, Oklahoma was 102 percent, and Kansas was 101 percent. Fed cattle marketings in May totaled 1.76 million head, ten percent below 2024. Other disappearances in May totaled 62,000 head, unchanged from May 2024.

Administration Still Considering Immigration Relief for U.S. Agriculture

President Donald Trump is again considering how to shield American agricultural industry stakeholders from the effects of his illegal immigration crackdown. USA Today says that comes only days after the administration reinstated workplace raids at U.S. agricultural operations. “We can’t put farms out of business,” Trump said on June 20. “We’re looking at doing something where good and reputable farmers can take responsibility for the people they hire and let them have the responsibility. At the same time, we don’t want to hurt people who are not criminals.” The messages have been mixed as raids continue despite the President promising changes to protect migrants in the farming, hotel, and leisure industries in a social media post on Truth Social on June 12. After directing immigration officials to largely pause the raids on farms, hotels, restaurants, and meatpacking plants, the administration reversed course only a few days later and resumed the raids. 

Klobuchar on Reconciliation Package Decisions

Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Ranking Member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, commented on the Senate Parliamentarian’s advice that the agriculture, nutrition, and forestry provisions of the Republican reconciliation bill violate the Senate’s Byrd Rule. Those provisions would be subject to a 60-vote threshold if they’re included in the final bill before a Senate vote. These provisions include cost-shifts to states, which mandates that states cover a portion of SNAP program benefits with the state share escalating with payment error rates. “The Parliamentarian made clear that Senate Republicans cannot use their partisan budget to shift major nutrition assistance costs to the states, which would have inevitably led to major cuts,” she said. “While the Republican’s proposed cuts to SNAP will still be devastating to families, farmers, and independent grocers, we will keep fighting to protect families in need.” She also said Republicans should work with Democrats to lower costs for all Americans. 

American Wildfire Preparedness Level Boosted

The National Multi-Agency Coordination Group raised the national wildland fire preparedness level one step higher to Preparedness Level 3. The Group is composed of wildland fire representatives from each wildland fire agency based at the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho. “Peak fire season is here, and we have created the most prepared and coordinated wildfire-fighting force in the world,” said Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins. “We are taking this fire season seriously, and our federal wildland firefighters are prepared to respond.” Right now, Rollins said several active fires are burning across the country, and the U.S. Forest Service is actively responding. As of June 1, the Forest Service has hired 96 percent of its 11,300-firefighter hiring target, with full staffing expected by mid-July. This is ahead of where the agency has been in previous years, and the Forest Service is ready for the fire season ahead. 

Some U.S. Wheat Farmers Cut Losses

From Texas to Montana, Reuters says farmers cut some losses early this year across the U.S. Wheat Belt. Many farmers chose to bale the wheat into hay, plow some fields under, or turn them over to grazing animals. Farmers who have crop insurance can still earn revenue from damaged fields. The Great Plains are home to much of the U.S.-grown hard red winter wheat crop, which is favored by bakers for bread. However, with prices around $5 a bushel, America’s wheat farmers are at a point where they may be forced to lose money, feed the wheat to their cattle, or kill off their crops. USDA Crop Progress Reports show that the winter wheat harvest is behind schedule. A report from Total Farm Marketing says excessive rain continues to be the culprit. “If the rain continues, wheat quality issues may also show up,” said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing. 

May Milk Production up 1.7 Percent

Milk production in the 24 major milk-producing states in the U.S. totaled 19.1 billion pounds, up 1.7 percent from May 2024. April’s revised production, at 18.6 billion pounds, was up 1.7 percent from April 2024. The April revision represented an increase of 17 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month’s preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major milk-producing states averaged 2,125 pounds for May, seven pounds above May 2024. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 states was nine million head, 118,000 head more than in May 2024 and 6,000 head more than in April 2025. Milk production in the United States totaled 19.9 billion pounds, up 1.6 percent from May 2024. Production per cow in the U.S. averaged 2,110 pounds for May, seven pounds above May 2024. The number of milk cows on U.S. farms totaled 9.45 million head, 114,000 more than in May 2024.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Consumer Confidence at 9 a.m. CDT

Weather

A front remains stalled on the western and northern edge of a heat dome situated across the eastern half of the U.S. on Tuesday. Hot and humid conditions in the east will produce some isolated showers, but the front will be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, including some limited severe weather and heavy rainfall potential.

Trump's Border Czar: Immigration Raids at Farms to Continue

Following a week of immigration whiplash, President Trump's border czar Tom Homan confirmed late last week that immigration raids will continue in the agriculture and hospitality industries. The Trump administration had said it was pausing some ICE raids that would hurt those industries, but Homan's comments reaffirm that it is reversing course. While workers at places like farms, restaurants, and hotels will be targeted, people with criminal backgrounds will be a priority for immigration enforcement officials, Homan said. "We're going to continue to do worksite enforcement operations, even on farms and hotels, but based on a prioritized basis. Criminals come first," Homan told reporters. Asked what he would say to farmers concerned the raids will hurt their jobs and the U.S. economy, Homan said, "Well, first of all, there's a right way and wrong way to hire workers. There are legal programs that bring farm workers in. Second of all, I've been saying for years, Congress needs to address this. But because Congress failed, it just doesn't mean we ignore it. It's illegal to knowingly hire an illegal alien."

Key Differences Between House and Senate BBB Versions Could Impact Farmers

Senate Republicans are racing against the clock to finish their version of President Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill. As the Senate continues to roll out its versions of the reconciliation bill, there are some differences between the House and Senate proposals when it comes to agriculture. The main variations come down to changes in the tax provisions, but it’s key to note proposed changes to the farm safety net are similar in both the House and the Senate. The House and Senate will now need to work out their differences in the two versions of the Big Beautiful Bill. President Trump said he wants to sign the legislation on July 4, but many reports cast doubt Congress can meet that approaching deadline. Politico even reported last week that the Senate GOP’s version of the bill is “facing major headwinds in the House.”

U.S. Headed Toward Record Ag Trade Deficit

The U.S. agricultural trade deficit is widening in 2025, driven by shifting global trade dynamics and rising import demand. USDA’s Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report provides projections for exports and imports, offering insight into current trade trends. From January through April, the United States imported $78.2 billion in agricultural products while exporting just $58.5 billion. This $19.7 billion deficit is the largest ever recorded for the first four months of a year and signals that the 2025 deficit could surpass previous records. After decades of consistent trade surpluses, U.S. agriculture has been in an agricultural trade deficit since 2022. In fiscal year (FY) 2023, the trade gap reached $16.7 billion and nearly doubles in FY 2024 to $31.8 billion. USDA now forecasts the FY 2025 deficit will rise to approximately $49.5 billion, which would mark the largest agricultural trade imbalance on record. 

EPA Concludes Hearings on WOTUS Rule

Public listening sessions on the future of the Waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) rule have wrapped up, and the Trump administration said it plans to have the rule completed by the end of the year. Throughout the sessions, there was a clear divide between what agriculture and industry groups and environmental groups are seeking in WOTUS, as ag reps said they wanted clearer definitions while environmental groups asked for no changes to the rule. DTN reports the continued back and forth of definitions and re-definitions from administration to administration in the past 20 years has led to what is currently a patchwork of differing versions of the WOTUS definition from state to state because of a series of legal cases. The agencies held nine listening sessions including two public sessions in West Virginia and Utah, and said in the news release that they "heard from people who are frustrated with the constantly shifting" WOTUS definition.

Growers Call for Abbott to Veto Bill Banning Texas Hemp

Grassroots momentum is accelerating in Texas as a growing coalition of veterans, small business owners, farmers and everyday Texans call on Governor Greg Abbott to veto Senate Bill 3. The Texas Hemp Business Council (THBC) announced Friday that its petition to stop the controversial hemp ban has reached 147,979 signatures. The surge in support follows the release of a new poll conducted by GOP pollster Chris Perkins of Ragnar Research Partners, revealing that Texas Republican voters overwhelmingly reject the central aim of SB 3, which is to ban hemp-derived products. According to the poll, 47% of Texas Republican primary voters oppose such a ban, while only 37% are in favor. Texas implemented strong hemp regulations in 2019. However, if signed into law, SB 3 would ban hemp-derived products currently legal under both federal and Texas law. The legislation will eliminate $4.3 billion in annual revenue and 53,000 jobs, and also flood the state with unregulated, unsafe products. 

NASS to Survey Cattle Operations

On Friday, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) mailed the July cattle survey to about 18,000 cattle operations nationwide to provide an up-to-date measure of U.S. cattle inventories. This is the first July cattle survey mailed to producers since the reinstatement of key reports was announced earlier this year. “This information helps producers make timely, informed business decisions and plan for herd expansion or reduction,” said NASS Livestock Branch Chief Travis Averill. “It also helps packers and government leaders evaluate expected slaughter volume for future months and determine potential supplies for export.” During the first two weeks of July, U.S. cattle producers will have the opportunity to report their beef and dairy cattle inventories, calf crop, death loss and cattle on feed information. The July Cattle report will be released on July 25, 2025, at 3 p.m. ET.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CDT

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report at 2:30 p.m. CDT

Crop Progress at 3 p.m. CDT

Weather

A front moved into the middle of the country and stalled this weekend. That will be a focal point for periods of showers and thunderstorms all week long. For Monday, that will occur across the Central Plains and Upper Midwest. Areas north and west of the front are much cooler after a weekend heatwave that spread across the country. That heat continues to the east.

ICE Reverses Ag Exemption from Immigration Raids

The Department of Homeland Security told staff on Monday it would be reversing guidance issued last week that agents weren’t to conduct immigration raids at farms, hotels, and restaurants. The Washington Post said the immigration pullback is directly at odds with President Donald Trump’s calls for mass deportations of anyone illegally in the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials told agency staff on a call that they must continue conducting immigration raids on farms and other agricultural businesses along with hotels and restaurants. Two people familiar with the agency call said the new instructions were given to staff from as many as 30 field offices across the country. The LA Times said, “As the vital harvest season gets going in California’s vast agricultural regions, farmers and their workers are getting whiplash from the series of contradictory signals about how the administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration may or may not affect them. 

Groups Applaud Supreme Court Decision on Small Refinery Exemptions

The Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy reacted positively after the Supreme Court issued its opinion that the Washington D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals is the proper venue for challenging Small Refinery Exemption decisions. “This is a victory for the American biofuels industry and for the rural communities that depend on a strong Renewable Fuels Standard,” the groups said. “The Court agreed with our argument that the D.C. Circuit court is the only appropriate venue for litigation on EPA’s small refinery exemption decisions.” The groups also said because the Renewable Fuel Standard is a national program and SREs have nationwide impacts, any challenges to SRE decisions belong squarely in the D.C. Circuit. Allowing 12 different Circuit Courts to adjudicate SREs would result in a fractured and inconsistent body of law, causing chaos and confusion in the marketplace. “This gives farmers and ethanol producers greater certainty about SRE litigation,” the groups added. 

NAFB Partners with Feeding America to Help End Rural Hunger

While food insecurity affects 47 million people in America, it has a disproportionate impact in rural areas of the country. To bring attention to the crisis and with the goal of providing one million meals for hungry people, the National Association of Farm Broadcasting introduced the NAFB Hunger Campaign(Link is external). NAFB Hunger is designed to help provide food and resources for people facing hunger, including those in rural communities, by directing donors to the Feeding America® network of partner food banks. NAFB stations and network broadcast members are reaching rural audiences through public service announcements and other communications to drive donors to a dedicated website: nafbhunger.com(Link is external). “Through the power and reach of farm broadcasters and others in the NAFB Community, we’re striving to make a difference in the communities we serve,” said NAFB President Jeff Nalley. “Rural America experiences a disproportionately higher rate of food insecurity compared to urban and suburban areas.”

Sustainable Farming Continues Surging

The Fertilizer Institute announced that almost 65 million acres of U.S. farmland are being actively managed using the 4R Nutrient Stewardship practices. “Industry leaders set a goal in 2021 to have 70 million acres of cropland under 4R management by 2030,” said TFI President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch. “We are well on the way to achieving that goal and being good stewards of our shared resources area, a priority for both the fertilizer industry and farmers across the country.” A 4R acre is defined as an acre of U.S. cropland under management using 4R practices, which stands for the right fertilizer source at the right rate, at the right time, and in the right place. These practices include crediting organic sources and removal rates, variable rate technology, and split applications, among other practices. 

USDA Plan to Combat New World Screwworm

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins launched an $8.5 million sterile New World screwworm fly dispersal facility in south Texas and announced a five-part plan to enhance USDA’s ability to detect, control, and eliminate the pest. These urgent actions are necessary to finish the fight against NWS and protect the nation’s livestock. While the screwworm has been eradicated from the U.S. for decades, recent detections in Mexico as close as 700 miles from the U.S. border led to the immediate suspension of live cattle, horses, and bison imports through U.S. ports of entry along the southern U.S. border on May 11. “The U.S. has defeated NWS before and will do it again,” Rollins said during a facility groundbreaking ceremony. “We don’t take the threat NWS poses to our livestock industry, our economy, and food supply chain lightly.” The five-part plan includes partnering with Mexico to ensure eradication and protect the southern border. 

Improving the Reliability of Freight Rail Service

Senators Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Roger Marshall (R-KS) reintroduced the “Reliable Rail Service Act” to help address the unreliable service and high costs of rail shipping for farmers and manufacturers. The legislation would strengthen the U.S. rail supply chain and ensure the largest freight railroads provide American businesses reliable services at reasonable rates so products can get to market more efficiently, and costs are lower for families. “Our farmers, small businesses, and manufacturers rely on rail service to get their products to market and make ends meet,” said Senator Baldwin. When rail service is unreliable, she says, it puts livelihoods on the line, disrupts supply chains, and drives up costs for hardworking families. “Our farmers depend on reliable transport of their world-class products to the rest of the country, and Class 1 railroads are not meeting expectations,” said Marshall. “This bill contains reasonable requirements for rail carriers to meet their obligations.” 

Friday Watch List

Markets

Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Cattle on Feed at 2 p.m. CDT

*Note that the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report is delayed until Monday, June 23 due to Thursday's Holiday*

Weather

A stalled front across the far north will be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms for Friday, along with chances for severe weather. South of this front, temperatures are rising and will be very hot in the Plains. This heat will spread eastward over the weekend.

Ag Groups Ask MAHA to Seek Their Input

More than 250 groups representing farmers, ranchers, and agrochemical companies urged the Trump administration on Tuesday to seek their input on future activities of the Make America Healthy Again Commission, after the body's first report pointed to pesticides as a possible health risk. Reuters reports the farm sector has been pushing for more involvement in the work of the commission, established by President Donald Trump in February and named for the social movement aligned with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The MAHA report released in May was produced without adequate input from the farm sector and, as a result, "contained numerous errors and distortions that have created unfounded fears about the safety of our food supply," said the letter sent on Tuesday morning to Kennedy, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin. "The MAHA Commission would benefit from inviting public comment and formally including representatives from food and agriculture in any future reports," said the letter.

NPPC Welcomes Animal Health Provisions on Capitol Hill

The National Pork Producers Council applauded the introduction of similar animal health legislation in the U.S. House and Senate to fund U.S. Department of Agriculture measures and programs that help prevent, prepare for, and respond to foreign animal diseases (FADs). Agriculture Committee members Reps. Ronny Jackson (R-TX), Don Bacon (R-NE), Jim Costa (D-CA), and Don Davis (D-NC) sponsored the House bill, which would fund the National Animal Health Laboratory Network, the National Animal Disease Preparedness and Response Program, the National Veterinary Stockpile, and the National Animal Vaccine and Veterinary Countermeasures Bank. Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman (R-AR) preserved similar legislative language in his committee’s budget reconciliation package. “As foreign animal diseases continue to pose serious risks to producers – and the entire food supply chain – this legislation is key to maintaining pork’s safety, security, and affordability,” said NPPC President and Ohio pork producer Duane Stateler.

Thailand, Vietnam, Brazil Increase U.S. Access to Markets

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced American agricultural producers will have greater market access to Thailand and Vietnam and maintain access to Brazil. USDA says the Trump Administration continues to break down non-tariff barriers and defend current market access, and these latest actions are some of many wins ahead for American producers. U.S. dairy producers will have maintained access to Brazil markets, citrus and apple growers will be able to sell more products to Thailand, and stone fruit growers will face lower non-tariff trade barriers in Vietnam as a result of the action taken by USDA. “American farmers and ranchers grow the safest, most abundant food supply in the world. Expanded access to Brazil, Thailand, and Vietnam will result in millions in added trade for the U.S. As we continue to bring America into a new golden age of prosperity, the best is yet to come for our farmers and ranchers,” said Secretary Rollins.

China Allows Import of Eligible Pork, Poultry Products From 106 U.S. Plants

China has approved 106 new U.S. pork and poultry plants to export eligible products produced on or after June 12, Chinese Customs said in a notice on its website. Reuters reports the announcement comes after China and the U.S. agreed on a framework to get their trade truce reached in Geneva talks last month back on track. The newly approved facilities include 23 pork plants and 83 poultry plants, according to a Chinese Customs database. China in March slapped tariffs of up to 15% covering $21 billion worth of American agricultural and food products, in retaliation against Trump’s imposition of levies on Chinese exports. Hundreds of U.S. meat plants gained access to China under the 2020 “Phase 1” trade deal brokered by President Donald Trump, but many lost their eligibility earlier this year. While registrations for pork and poultry facilities have since been renewed, beef plant registrations remain listed as “expired.”

Wisconsin Farmer Claims Discrimination Against White Farmers by Trump Administration

A Wisconsin dairy farmer alleged in a federal lawsuit filed Monday that the Trump administration is illegally denying financial assistance to white farmers by continuing programs that favor minorities. The conservative Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty filed the lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Agriculture in federal court in Wisconsin on behalf of a white dairy farmer, Adam Faust. Faust was among several farmers who successfully sued the Biden administration in 2021 for race discrimination in the USDA’s Farmer Loan Forgiveness Plan, according to the AP. The new lawsuit alleges the government has continued to implement diversity, equity and inclusion programs that were instituted under former President Joe Biden. The Wisconsin Institute wrote to the USDA in April warning of legal action, and six Republican Wisconsin congressmen called on the USDA to investigate and end the programs. 

Refreshed Website Offers New Biosecurity Resources

The Secure Beef Supply (SBS) website, www.securebeef.org(Link is external), has been redesigned to better serve the growing number of users seeking new, updated and classic biosecurity resources. “Producers can use these new Secure Beef Supply Plan resources to be proactive and customize their biosecurity strategies and plan before a disease outbreak – when time and resources are limited,” said NCBA’s Beef Cattle Specialist Veterinarian Julia Herman. “It’s a valuable addition to any risk management plan and should be developed in collaboration with veterinarians and other team members.” Thanks to funding from USDA’s National Animal Disease Preparedness and Response Program, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association led a collaborative effort to increase awareness of SBS and foot-and-mouth disease. The website overhaul was executed by Iowa State University’s Center for Food Security and Public Health and Dr. Danelle Bickett-Weddle of Preventalytics, with support from NCBA. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CDT

EIA Petroleum Status Report including weekly ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CDT

ERS Cost of Production Forecasts at 1 p.m. CDT

FOMC Interest Rate Decision followed by Fed Chair Powell Press Conference at 1 p.m. CDT

Weather

A system is producing areas of scattered showers early Wednesday across the middle of the country. This system will move through the Midwest throughout the day and showers should increase both through the Midwest, and down along its cold front into the Southern Plains. Another front will move south toward the U.S.-Canada border with scattered showers there as well.

ICE Ordered to Pause Immigration Raids on Ag Businesses

President Trump’s administration directed immigration officials to largely pause raids on farms, hotels, restaurants, and meatpacking plants. Reuters said that information came from an internal email, a senior Trump official, and a person familiar with the matter. The order to scale back on immigration raids came from President Trump himself. It appears to slow down a late-May demand from White House aide Stephen Miller for more aggressive immigration raids. The source told Reuters that the President wasn’t aware of the extra enforcement push, and once it hit him, he pulled it back. The President posted on his Truth Social site that he disapproved of how farmers and hotels were being affected. The United Farm Workers union said last week that it was skeptical the new directive would help workers without legal status. The New York Times reported the turnaround in deportations of farmworkers came after Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins raised concerns. 

Greater Market Access in Overseas Markets

U.S. Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced that American agricultural producers will have greater market access to Thailand and Vietnam and maintain access to Brazil. Actions by the administration included maintaining consistent access to Brazilian markets for U.S. dairy producers. Citrus and apple growers will be able to sell more products to Thailand, and stone fruit growers will face lower non-tariff barriers in Vietnam as a result of actions taken by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. “American farmers and ranchers grow the safest and most abundant food supply in the world,” said USDA Secretary Rollins. “Expanded access to Brazil, Thailand, and Vietnam will result in millions in added trade for the U.S.” USDA also says these trade victories follow four years of inaction by the Biden administration, which caused the agricultural trade balance to go from a trade surplus under President Trump to an almost $50 billion trade deficit under President Biden. 

Groups Continue to Applaud EPA’s Proposed RVOs

Groups like the National Sorghum Producers voiced support for the EPA’s proposed Renewable Fuel Standard volume requirements for 2026 and 2027. “Sorghum continues to gain traction as a dependable, low-input advanced biofuel feedstock, and this rule lays out important groundwork to expand our role in current and future biofuels markets,” said NSP CEO Tim Lutz. Clean Fuels Alliance America thanked EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin for releasing the overdue proposed rule. “Continued growth and market stability through the RFS will enable more economic opportunities, create more jobs, and revitalize America’s agricultural sector,” said CFA Vice President of Federal Affairs Kurt Kovarik. Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) said, “The blending levels under the RFS advance the bipartisan efforts Senator Grassley and I have led to increase the blending of homegrown biofuels, including ethanol and biodiesel. As farmers continue to face headwinds of uncertain trade and tariffs, domestic biofuel production is a critical market for farmers.” 

Meat Processors Want a Part in Ag Worker Solutions

The Meat Institute called today for the processing sector, a critical part of the meat and poultry supply chain, to be included in the Trump administration’s plans for a stable and legal agriculture workforce. “As reforms are considered, we urge the Trump administration to include meat and poultry packers and processors in the efforts to improve agriculture worker programs,” said Julie Anna Potts, President and CEO of the Meat Institute. “More than 850,000 hog farmers, cattle ranchers, and poultry growers rely on meat packers to market their animals, and consumers rely on processors for the nutrient-dense meat and poultry they feed their families.” Meat and poultry processors keep the rural economy moving by producing the beef, pork, and poultry purchased by 98 percent of American households. “Our members need changes to the H-2A visa program and modernization of E-Verify to ensure the processing sector has a year-round workforce,” Potts added. 

Nominations are Open for FSA County Committees

Nominations are being accepted from farmers and ranchers to serve on local USDA Farm Service Agency county committees. These committees make important decisions about how federal farm programs are administered locally. All nomination forms for the 2025 election must be postmarked or received in the local FSA office by August 1, 2025. “Serving on an FSA county committee provides producers with a unique opportunity to have a say in local farm program decisions, ensuring FSA policies work, as intended, for producers at the country level,” said FSA Administrator Bill Beam. “Nominations are open, so here’s your chance to support USDA’s commitment to putting farmers first by amplifying the voices of farmers and ranchers in your community and effectively delivering the economic support they deserve.” Producers may be nominated for candidacy if they participate or cooperate in a USDA program or reside in the LAA that is up for election this year. 

Public Land Ranchers Talk Wildfire Prevention

The Public Lands Council thanked President Donald Trump, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins, and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum for the push to make the federal government’s wildfire prevention and response strategy more efficient. As wildfire season begins, America’s western ranchers need federal agencies to prioritize wildfire response to help protect rural communities. “Western communities have faced years of devastation from catastrophic wildfires, and we need every tool available to protect our nation’s scenic rangelands from burning,” said PLC President Tim Canterbury. “There is no single solution for protecting the West from catastrophic wildfires, but by using livestock grazing to reduce fine fuels, increasing active land management, and making the federal response more efficient, we can protect lives and livelihoods from suffering due to wildfire.” PLC Executive Director Kaitlynn Glover added, “Secretaries Rollins and Burgum recognize the challenge that catastrophic wildfire poses in the west. We appreciate them protecting rural communities.”

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. retail sales at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Industrial production and capacity utilization at 8:15 a.m. CDT

Business inventories at 9 a.m. CDT

Weather

A front is dropping south into Kansas early on Tuesday and is producing areas of thunderstorms with heavy rain and severe weather already. A more significant severe weather event is forecast for the region this afternoon and evening which could include significant winds and hail over mature wheat areas. Other scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur to the east which may produce some areas of heavy rain as well.

RFA: Proposed RVOs Provide ‘Crucial Growth Opportunities’

The Renewable Fuels Association welcomed the release of proposed renewable volume obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and 2027, calling the Environmental Protection Agency’s draft rule a “very positive signal” for America’s ethanol industry and farmers. EPA has proposed renewable volume obligations for 2026 of 24 billion gallons, including 15 billion of conventional renewable fuel, 9 billion advanced, 5-point-6 billion biomass diesel and 1-point-3 billion cellulosic…with slightly more advanced biofuel in ’27. By prioritizing domestically-produced renewable fuels over imports, RFA said the EPA proposal makes good on President Trump’s commitment to put America first when it comes to energy and agriculture. “Today’s proposal is an important step toward achieving President Trump’s vision of lower gas prices, a stronger agriculture industry, and American energy dominance,” the RFA said in a release. “The volumes proposed today provide crucial growth opportunities for U.S. ethanol producers and farmers, while boosting the supply of lower-cost, American-made energy.” 

Trump Says Farmworkers Will Not Be Deported

President Donald Trump, citing pressure from the agriculture and hospitality sectors, says farmworkers who are in the country illegally shouldn’t be deported and reiterated that the administration would be taking action on the issue. “We’re going to have an order on that coming out soon,” he said Thursday in response to a reporter’s question at a White House ceremony. Trump didn’t elaborate on what the administration would do about farmworkers and hospitality industry employees. Trump had previously suggested that farmworkers would be allowed to stay but required to return to their countries temporarily. Trump’s latest remarks followed enforcement actions this week on farms in California and at a meatpacking plant in Omaha, Nebraska. Trump said, “Our farmers are being hurt badly. They have very good workers. They’ve worked for them for 20 years. They’re not citizens, but they’ve turned out to be great. We’re going to have to do something about that.”

NCBA: Screwworm Likely to be in U.S. Later This Summer

Colin Woodall, CEO of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, says the screwworm, a parasitic pest, is likely to cross the southern border of the United States later this summer. It’s no longer a question of whether we see a return of New World screwworms in the U.S., it’s a matter of when, Woodall said, probably sometime later this summer. The screwworm females lay eggs near open wounds, any kind of wound in cattle, and the eggs hatch into larvae, which are maggots that burrow into the wound and feed on living tissue. He said the only cure is to sterilize the male screwworm flies, which they do in a factory in Mexico. When the female screwworm lays her eggs once, she dies, but the male screwworm lives on. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told the House Ag Committee last week that she will make a major announcement soon concerning the next preventative steps.

Waterhemp Continues to Spread Westward in North Dakota

Farmers are turning to post-emergent herbicides, but concerns about certain weeds, such as waterhemp, last until harvest. Waterhemp continues to be a major weed problem for soybeans in North Dakota, with confirmed resistance to glyphosate, group 2 herbicides, and group 14 herbicides in many counties. When we find waterhemp, it’s going to be almost guaranteed it’s glyphosate-resistant and resistant to our group 2 herbicides, said Joe Ikley, weed specialist at North Dakota State University at field days last summer. Some counties have been confirmed as having group 14 resistance to waterhemp. Ikely said the primary region for where waterhemp resides is from Fargo to Jamestown and the southeast corner of the state. That is where we kind of live and breathe waterhemp, unfortunately, from a weed control perspective. However, Ikley has heard from the northern tier of counties and up into Manitoba over the last two years. 

Finalized 10-Year Sage Grouse Study Confirms Benefits of Grazing

The University of Idaho on Friday released the finalized results of its 10-year study looking into the impacts of grazing on greater sage grouse populations. The study concluded that cattle grazing does not negatively impact greater sage grouse and can only benefit the species through building robust habitat, increasing forage, and reducing invasive grasses that lead to catastrophic wildfires. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, the Idaho Cattle Association, the Public Lands Council (PLC) and the Idaho Public Lands Council have all highlighted the benefits of grazing and pushed back against anti-grazing myths for decades, making this landmark study a must point of reference moving forward for anyone questioning the benefits of grazing on wildlife. “This study finally proves what ranchers have been saying all along – livestock grazing benefits wildlife, native grasses and the overall landscape,” said Public Lands Council president Tim Canterbury.

Land Managers Defend Budget Cuts, Plans to Sell Public Lands

The country’s top land managers testified before U.S. senators last week to defend sweeping budget cuts for the nation’s public lands and a plan to sell 3.3 million acres managed by the Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management so communities can build housing. The U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee on Wednesday published a provision for the Senate’s budget reconciliation bill requiring the Forest Service to sell between 965,000 and 1.45 million of its 193 million acres and the Bureau of Land Management to sell between 1.23 million and 1.84 million of its 245 million acres to encourage development of housing. The House last month stripped a plan to sell public lands in Nevada from its version of the budget bill. “This is not about our most sacred and beautiful places,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told the committee. “This is often about barren land next to highways with existing billboards that have no recreational value.”

Monday Watch List

Markets

Grain Inspections at 10 a.m. CDT

ERS Commodity Outlooks at 2 p.m. CDT

Crop Progress at 3 p.m. CDT

Weather

After another wet weekend, the weather pattern continues to be active this week with more widespread rainfall across a lot of the country east of the Rockies. Areas in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic may have issues with flooding while areas in the Upper Midwest and northern half of the Plains deal with severe weather. The southwestern Plains should be notably drier, though.

2025 Q1 Milk Production Grows Modestly

Rabobank says milk production grew modestly across the Big Seven exporting regions in the U.S. during Q1, expanding by 0.5 percent year-over-year. In total, RaboResearch forecasts 2025 milk production from the Big Seven at 326.7 million metric tons, an increase of one percent or 3.2 million metric tons, the highest annual volume gain since 2020. However, demand concerns are mounting in many economies as consumer sentiment has waned amid weak and uncertain global economic conditions. ”A number of factors are weighing on demand,” said Mary Ledman, Global Dairy Strategist at RaboResearch. “These include record or near-record-low consumer confidence in the U.S., troubling indicators of economic struggles in China, and declining sales data from restaurants and consumer packaged goods companies in many regions.” Demand trends are expected to weigh on prices, especially as global buyers become more aware of increasing milk production. “We anticipate more downside risks in the second half of 2025,” Ledman added.

A Third Chinese National Arrested for Biological Material Smuggling

Another Chinese national has tried to smuggle biological materials into the U.S. A Farm Journal report says the materials were related to roundworms and intended for studying at a University of Michigan laboratory. This is the third Chinese national charged by the U.S. federal government in a week. A criminal complaint from the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Eastern Michigan, says Chengxuan (CHENG-Zhu-wan) Han is charged with smuggling goods into the U.S. and making false statements. “The alleged smuggling of biological materials by this Chinese national from a science and technology university in Wuhan, China, intended for use at a University of Michigan laboratory, is part of an alarming pattern that threatens our security,” said U.S. Attorney Jerome Gorgon, Jr. “The American taxpayer should not be underwriting a PRC-based smuggling operation at one of our crucial public institutions.” During an interview with the FBI, Han admitted the packages contained biological materials.

Livestock Groups Applaud Reconciliation Bill for Animal Health Priorities

National Pork Producers Council President Duane Stateler applauded the inclusion of several NPPC animal health priorities in the Senate Ag Committee’s reconciliation package. “America’s 60,000-plus pork producers thank Chairman Boozman (BOZE-man) for fighting to include vital animal health priorities in the reconciliation legislation,” said Stateler. The priorities included funding for the National Animal Vaccine and Veterinary Countermeasures Bank. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association also announced support for cattle health measures in the legislation. “A successful farm or ranch starts with healthy cattle, and as cattle producers face the increasing risk of a foreign animal disease outbreak, the need for robust cattle health provisions is even more crucial,” said NCBA Executive Director of Government Affairs Tanner Beymer. The legislation advances support for the National Animal Disease Preparedness and Response Program and the National Animal Health Laboratory Network. “We’re urging the Senate to quickly pass these provisions so they can become law,” Beymer added.

Klobuchar Reacts to Proposed SNAP Cuts

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Ranking Member of the Senate Ag Committee, reacted to the billions in cuts to the SNAP program proposed by Senate Republicans. “Republican proposed cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program continue to be devastating to families in need, push a major financial burden onto states, and cause farmers and independent grocers who already operate on thin margins to lose billions in revenue,” Klobuchar said. “SNAP serves 16 million kids, eight million seniors, four million people with disabilities, and more than one million veterans.” She also said while some changes were made to the food assistance cuts, the bill continues to include an unprecedented cost shift, forcing tens of billions of SNAP costs onto state governments for the first time. “Over the next decade, cuts to SNAP will also cost farmers tens of billions in revenue because Americans won’t be able to buy their products,” Klobuchar added.

Iowa Corn Growers Applaud Governor Reynolds’ Veto

Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds vetoed an anti-pipeline bill, which the Iowa Corn Growers say will preserve Iowa’s right to pursue carbon capture and sequestration technology. “The Governor’s decision is a win for Iowa’s corn farmers, ethanol industry, and economy,’ the ICGA said in a statement. “Iowa is the world’s leader in corn and ethanol production, and now there’s an opportunity to increase demand for ultra-low carbon fuels, a market that Iowa deserves the ability to pursue.” The Corn Growers also said participation in CCS projects will allow Iowa to capitalize on exciting new ethanol market opportunities like Sustainable Aviation Fuels. “Because of decreased profit margins, Iowa’s corn growers need expanded market growth and access to continue raising corn profitably, allowing them to continue to grow Iowa’s agricultural industry and economy,” the Corn Growers added. “We appreciate the Governor’s decision to continue championing Iowa agriculture and creating new pathways for farmer success.” 

Not Much Change to Corn and Soybeans in the June WASDE

The latest World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report for June says the 2025-2026 U.S. corn outlook didn’t change much from last month. The numbers did show lower beginning and ending stocks, while corn area and yield forecasts were unchanged. USDA will release its survey-based Acreage Report on June 30. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.20 per bushel. U.S. soybean supply, use, and price projections are unchanged this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.25 a bushel. The U.S. wheat outlook this month is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1.921 million bushels, up 115,000 from last month. The all-wheat yield forecast is virtually unchanged at 51.6 bushels an acre. The projected 2025-2026 season average farm price is 10 cents higher at $5.40 on the reduced ending stocks. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

Consumer Sentiment at 9 a.m. CDT

USDA Season Average Price Forecasts at 1 p.m. CDT

Weather

Scattered rain showers will drift through the Midwest Friday with showers exiting the Mississippi Delta. There is a risk for strong to severe storms in the Western Plains Friday evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary risks with stronger storms, but a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

U.S. and China Agreement to Get Negotiations Going Again

Senior U.S. and Chinese negotiators announced a framework for getting their trade negotiations back on track after a series of disputes arose and threatened to derail the talks. The announcement was made by both sides and came at the end of two days of talks in London that wrapped up late Tuesday. The meetings appeared to focus on finding a way to resolve disputes over mineral and technology exports that had shaken a fragile truce on trade reached in Geneva last month. The AP says it’s not clear yet if they made any significant progress on the more fundamental differences over China’s sizable trade surplus with the U.S. “First, we had to get some of the negativity out, and now we can go forward,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said after the meetings concluded. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping also spoke on the phone to calm the tensions.

U.S. Tractor and Combine Sales Continue Dropping in May

According to recent data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, U.S. sales of combines and tractors dropped in all categories during May. Total agricultural tractor sales were down 12 percent and combine sales were 21 percent lower compared to May 2024. “This continued slump of U.S. tractor and combine sales reflects broader challenges in the ag economy,” says Curt Blades, senior vice president of AEM. “High interest rates, global trade uncertainty, and increased input prices are causing farmers to delay major equipment purchases.” The biggest drop came in four-wheel-drive tractor sales, which fell 39 percent from May 2024 to May 2025. Self-propelled combine sales sank 21 percent over the same period. Canadian combine sales rose 16 percent in May compared to May 2024, while sales of four-wheel-drive tractors jumped 35 percent year-to-date. “We’re very encouraged by the strong performance in the Canadian market and remain hopeful,” Blades added. 

Deere Must Face Right-to-Repair Lawsuit

A court ruling determined that agricultural equipment manufacturer John Deere must face a lawsuit by the Federal Trade Commission, which accuses the company of forcing farmers to use its authorized dealer network. A judge ruled that drove up farmers’ costs for repairs and parts. A U.S. District Court Judge in Rockford, Illinois, rejected Deere’s effort, for now, to end the lawsuit, which was filed at the end of President Joe Biden’s administration in January. “The suit alleges John Deere is violating federal antitrust law by controlling too tightly where and how farmers can get their equipment repaired, allowing the company to charge artificially higher prices,” a Reuters report said. “The FTC was joined in its lawsuit by Michigan, Wisconsin, and three other states.” Right-to-repair advocates say the digitization of agriculture equipment, with its various computers, has made self-repair almost impossible, forcing farmers to depend on the manufacturer.

Vaden Confirmed as Deputy USDA Secretary

"Several key agriculture groups in the U.S. congratulated Stephen Vaden on his confirmation as USDA Deputy Secretary. “His experience and demonstrated leadership within USDA and commitment to U.S. agriculture make him well-qualified to serve in this critical leadership role to address the current challenges and opportunities in agriculture,” said Ted McKinney, NASDA CEO. The NCBA says Vaden has spent his career immersed in trade issues and fighting for farmers and ranchers. “His unique skill set is especially important now as the Trump administration works to expand market access for cattle producers,” says Ethan Lane, NCBA Vice President of Government Affairs. Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall adds that Vaden, a judge on the International Court of Trade, will hit the ground running “with a firm understanding of the challenges facing American farmers.” Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins, Vaden’s new boss, says, “Judge Vaden is a seasoned lawyer and patriot dedicated to putting farmers first.” 

Dairy Farmers Approve New Trade Initiative

Dairy farmers from around the nation approved a new initiative to boost dairy exports and welcomed a new cooperative member, as well as new farmer-leaders as the National Milk Producers Federations’ Board of Directors meeting concluded this week. “It’s an amazing story if you imagine the millions of people who buy something we touch every day with our products,” said NMPF Board Chair Randy Mooney. “It’s not just at dinner, not just breakfast, but all day long because of what you can turn dairy into.” The board voted to implement a new member-funded export assistance program called NEXT, starting on July 1. The NEXT program will focus on supporting U.S. dairy exports in key markets around the world, including Latin America, the Caribbean, and Asia. A majority of the milk supplied to worldwide consumers by NMPF members is supporting the NEXT program with two cents per hundredweight through 2028.

A New Platform for Livestock Producers

Livestock producers at The National Swine Registry’s Exposition in Indianapolis got their first look at a new social media platform built for them called StockLink. It’s the first social media app created by livestock producers for livestock producers. StockLink was founded by livestock producers Chris and Kaitlyn Hofschulte (HOFF-shuhl-tee) after Facebook unexpectedly shut down their show pig business page in 2019, wiping out years of audience-building and customer relationships. They soon found out they weren’t alone. Breeders and farmers across the country were being censored or losing access to their communities due to Facebook’s policies prohibiting the sale of animals, especially live ones. “We built StockLink so that people can peacefully promote their businesses without worrying about platforms like Facebook shutting them down,” said Kaitlyn Hofschulte. “It’s a safe spot for all of us to buy and sell livestock and genetics without interruption.” 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Initial Jobless claims at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Producer Price Index for May at 7:30 a.m. CDT

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report at 11 a.m. CDT

NASS Crop Production Report at 11 a.m. CDT

FAS World Markets and Trade Reports for Grains and Oilseeds at 11:15 a.m. CDT

Weather

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are making their way through eastern Texas Thursday morning before moving through the Mississippi Delta Thursday afternoon and evening. Scattered rain showers and a few marginally severe storms are also expected to move through the north-central U.S. Thursday. Portions of the eastern Dakotas into central Minnesota could see 1-2 inches of rain over the next 24 hours.

Brazil Farmers Harvesting a Big Corn Crop

Brazil’s 2024-2025 corn harvest is expected to be the second largest in the country’s history, with a projected five million bushels. The National Supply Company (Conab), the country’s food supply and statistics agency, says the volume is higher than last year and above previous projections due to favorable rainfall in April and May that benefited most of the second-crop corn regions, which are responsible for 78 percent of Brazil’s total corn production in the current season. Despite the large harvest, Brazil’s corn exports in 2025 are projected to decline due to rising domestic demand from animal feed producers and the expanding corn ethanol industry. For U.S. corn exporters, who have seen corn exports exceed expectations in the first five months of the year, Brazil’s slower pace is likely to continue creating windows of opportunity throughout the year, especially when American corn remains price competitive with other key corn-exporting countries. 

Winter Wheat Conditions Rebound from Gloomy 2024 Forecast

Health conditions of the 2025 U.S. winter wheat crop were described as the “second-worst ever” last Fall. As harvest ramps up, Reuters says winter wheat ratings now sit at a six-year-high point for early June. It’s precisely what U.S. exporters need to continue and possibly grow their impressive sales numbers into next year. As of last weekend, the USDA rated 54 percent of the American winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition, which is higher than trade expectations and up from 50 percent only two weeks ago. That number is significantly higher than the 38 percent good-to-excellent in late October, which was the crops’ second-worst start in 39 years of data. By way of comparison, winter wheat was 47 percent good-to-excellent one year ago and final yield numbers were close to trend. Rain, however, has the winter wheat crop in Oklahoma, and the hard-red crop in Kansas off to slow starts.

Trade Mission to Peru is Underway

USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service Administrator Daniel Whitely arrived in Lima (LEE-mah), Peru, this week to begin an agribusiness trade mission to expand market access. The goal is to boost U.S. agricultural exports to address the $3.66 billion trade deficit with Peru. Whitley is leading a delegation of more than 50 agribusinesses and trade groups as well as five state departments of agriculture, all working to strengthen economic ties and improve the trade balance. Peru is the fourth-largest market for U.S. agricultural exports in South America, and the U.S. is Peru’s second-largest agricultural supplier. Despite bilateral trade growing by 263 percent since 2009 to $5.3 billion, the trade deficit persists. Export prospects in Peru are strong, especially in beef, pork, poultry, dairy products, tree nuts, ethanol, wine, and distilled spirits. “I’m honored to lead this delegation as we work to strengthen vital connections and grow U.S. agricultural exports,” said Whitley.

Clean Fuels Launches Redesigned BQ-9000 Website

Clean Fuels Alliance America is proud to announce the launch of the newly redesigned BQ-9000 website(Link is external). It’s intended to deliver a streamlined and user-friendly experience that better showcases the value of biodiesel quality assurance and the benefits of certification through the industry’s gold standard program. Administered by the National Biodiesel Accreditation Commission and supported by Clean Fuels, the BQ-9000 program combines ASTM fuel standards with best practices for production, storage, handling, and distribution. The revamped website offers easy access to accreditation status for biodiesel producers, marketers, and laboratories, helping fuel buyers and fleets make informed, confident choices. “In today’s environment, BQ-9000 accreditation is more than a label,” says Scott Fenwick, Technical Services Director at Clean Fuels. “It’s a mark of quality that leading engine manufacturers, fleets, and fuel suppliers depend on.” The new website makes it even easier for stakeholders to identify approved suppliers and understand why accreditation matters.

First Safety Training Focusing on Spray Drones

Mississippi State University made agricultural aviation history last week by hosting the nation’s first Self-Regulating Application and Flight Efficiency (SAFE) training program exclusively focused on spray drones. The training at MSU’s Agricultural Autonomy Institute marked a significant milestone in bridging the gap between traditional aerial applications and emerging drone technology. “Everything that we’re doing with spray drones, we want the traditional crop dusters to be involved in,” said Madison Dixon, director of the agronomy institute. “We want to build inroads between the spray drone community and the traditional crop duster community and, more importantly, ensure the mutual safety of all agricultural aviators as spray drone adoption increases.” The training examined multiple variables, including payload loading, wind speed applications, application height, nozzle configuration, and flow rates. One of the main goals is to master the emerging technology and understand how it fits into modernized practices to benefit the grower financially.

Sugar Growers Celebrate Candy Month in June

June is National Candy Month, a celebration of all things sweet. This and every month, America can take great pride in the hard work and dedication of America’s sugarbeet and sugarcane farmers and workers. Thanks to them, both candy manufacturers and consumers benefit from high-quality, made-in-America sugar. It’s an essential ingredient in not only your favorite treats but also countless everyday foods vital to a balanced and healthy diet. American family sugar farmers celebrate the policies that support their farms. While other confectionaries like cocoa remain difficult to get, U.S. sugar policy helps ensure a reliable, affordable supply of sugar, which keeps food manufacturing lines running, supporting American manufacturing jobs, benefiting local economies, and bolstering supply chains. All the benefits of U.S. sugar policy come at zero cost to American taxpayers and an affordable cost to consumers. Domestic producers provide sugar at reasonable prices despite supply uncertainty in the world market. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Consumer Price Index at 7:30 a.m. CDT

EIA Petroleum Status Report including weekly ethanol production/stocks at 9:30 a.m. CDT

Weather

A slow-moving front will be the start of a wetter pattern across the northwest Corn Belt Wednesday while scattered showers and thunderstorms will blanket the east half of Texas. Over the next 24 hours, some spots near Austin, Texas, could see over four inches of rain while parts of southern Minnesota, northern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin could see over one inch.

WOAH Adopts ASF Vaccine Standard

The World Organization for Animal Health recently adopted an African Swine Fever vaccine standard as a means to help control the disease. The agreement was reached during the Organization’s 92nd General Session in Paris last week. The Organization feels ASF control is possible. Key elements of the new standard include that vaccines must be manufactured with the highest quality and be proven to be effective and safe for use. The Organization warned that poor quality or non-compliant ASF vaccines may make the disease situation worse instead of improving it. To comply with the new standard, evidence will be required proving the vaccine’s efficacy, including in terms of reducing the severity of the symptoms and further transmission of the virus. WOAH (WHOA-ah) says vaccination alone, even if it meets these standards, won’t be enough without high levels of biosecurity, control of animal movements, and import restrictions. The decision to vaccinate ultimately rests with veterinary authority.

Farmer Pushes Back Against HHS Secretary

A Minnesota sugarbeet farmer wants consumers and legislators to know that sugar is an all-natural product. Tim Deal responded to Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F Kennedy, Jr., who said “sugar is poison” back in April. “Sugar is poison, and Americans need to know that it is poisoning us,” Kennedy said. That was the same day Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins visited an American Crystal Sugar Facility in North Dakota, owned by about 3,000 sugar beet growers in North Dakota and Minnesota. “Sugarbeet and sugarcane farmers always have and always will support food and ag policies grounded in strong science,” Deal said. “It’s an unwelcome shock for any farmer to hear our crops compared to poison and illegal drugs.” Deal also said he didn’t know anyone who would find that to be a fair or evidence-based statement. “There’s concern the Secretary will act on his view going forward,” Deal added.

Reminder to File Crop Acreage Reports

After spring planting is finished, agricultural producers should make an appointment with their local Farm Service Agency county office to complete crop acreage reports before the applicable deadline. July 15 is a major deadline for most crops, but acreage reporting deadlines vary by county and crop. “To ensure receipt of important safety net, disaster assistance, conservation, and crop insurance program benefits, producers should file an accurate crop acreage report for all crops and land uses, including failed acreage and prevented planting acreage before the deadline,” said FSA Administrator Bill Beam. “Once planting is complete, call your local FSA Office to make an appointment to report your acres and take care of other FSA-related business at the same time.” To file a crop acreage report, producers need to provide a number of facts, including crop type or variety and the number of crop acres. 

Ag Innovation Challenge Deadline Extended

The American Farm Bureau Federation, in partnership with Farm Credit, has extended the deadline for entrepreneurs to apply online for the 2026 Farm Bureau Ag Innovation Challenge to June 15. Now in year number 12, this national business competition showcases U.S. startup companies developing innovative solutions to challenges faced by America’s farmers, ranchers, and rural communities. The overall winner of the competition will receive $100,000 in startup funds, the runner-up will be awarded $25,000, and two additional business owners who advance to the final four round will receive $10,000. “This competition supports incredible entrepreneurs who are making sure agriculture is ready to meet the challenges of tomorrow,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “If you have a vision for how your business can drive agriculture forward, apply today.” After the application period closes on June 15, ten semi-finalist teams will be selected and announced on August 4.

SAF Coalition Briefs American Carbon Alliance Members

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Coalition joined the American Carbon Alliance’s monthly membership meeting to provide an important update on federal policy developments. The Coalition shared the latest on the sustainable aviation fuel market, highlighting its growing role in decarbonizing the transportation sector and expanding demand for low-carbon feedstocks like corn ethanol. A major focus of the briefing was the ongoing budget reconciliation process, where Congress is negotiating the critical energy and tax provisions. The SAF Coalition emphasized that the Senate is actively making edits to the reconciliation package – a bill that includes key priorities for the biofuel and agriculture industries. These negotiations will impact the future of the 45Z clean fuel production credits, sustainable aviation fuel tax credits, and broader carbon capture incentives, all of which are vital to the success of ethanol producers and rural America. The SAF Coalition has been a strong ally to ACA and its members.

NFU Names National Youth Advisory Council Members

The National Farmers Union concluded the 2025 All-States Leadership Summit in Washington, D.C., and released the names of the newly elected members who will serve on the National Youth Advisory Council. “NFU is proud to welcome the next generation of farmers and policy leaders to Washington, D.C., a program first for the All-States Leadership Summit,” said NFU President Rob Larew. “Our NYAC represents the future of family farming, ranching, and rural advocacy.” He also said the voices, energy, and ideas of the young people are vital to shaping a stronger future for agriculture, and the NFU is thrilled to have them serve in this role during the upcoming year. The NYAC is selected each year at the All-States Leadership Summit through a competitive application process to represent thousands of Farmers Union youth across the country. 

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

No major economic reports but the market will be closely monitoring Day 2 of trade talks in London between U.S. and Chinese officials.

Weather

Drier conditions briefly return to much of the Corn Belt Tuesday with scattered showers and storms lingering in the Southern Plains, Mississippi Delta, and Southeast. A few of the storms across the South could be marginally severe with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat with any stronger storms that form.

“On the Ropes”, Bayer Seeks Escape from Costly Roundup Litigation

Bayer executives have been warning in recent weeks that after losing billions of dollars to Roundup case settlements and jury awards, they may be ready to give up the fight and get out of the glyphosate business. In the US, there is no broad protection for producers of pesticides, so manufacturers can comply with the federal regulatory labeling requirements and still get sued for failing to warn, Bayer CEO Bill Anderson told investors in a recent conference call. Anderson said that is one factor among others as the company questions whether or not it should continue production of glyphosate, the active ingredient in Roundup and its other branded weedkillers. Glyphosate, introduced by Monsanto in the 1970s, is the world’s most widely used herbicidal chemical. The company has already removed glyphosate from consumer herbicide products sold in the US. Now, the ongoing litigation threatens Bayer’s ability to continue to supply glyphosate-based products to farmers and other professional users, the company said.

American Soybean Association Urges Continued Administration Support for IICA

The ASA and many other ag organizations sent a letter last week in support of the Inter-American Institute for cooperation on Agriculture and the integral role the organization plays in bolstering U.S. agriculture and trade priorities. IICA is a specialized agency for agriculture that supports the efforts of its members to achieve agricultural development and rural well-being. Its programs specialize in areas like technology and innovation for agriculture; agricultural health; food safety and quality; international agricultural trade; family farming; rural development; natural resource management and the bioeconomy. In the letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer, the groups highlighted why IICA is a highly effective and trusted partner. At a time of rising global competition and growing threats to agricultural trade and biosecurity, continued U.S. support for IICA will strengthen American leadership, expand export opportunities, and reinforce the science-based trade systems that help U.S. farmers and ranchers compete—and win—on a fairer global playing field.

Soybean Crop Conditions: First Look at 2025 Ratings

The USDA Crop Progress report, released earlier this week, offered the first soybean condition ratings of the season. While it’s early in the growing season, the numbers provide a valuable snapshot of how the crop is currently shaping up across major soybean production states. Only five states failed to surpass a combined good and excellent rating of 60%. Illinois reported 59% of its soybean crop in good or excellent condition, Michigan came in at 54%, North Dakota reported 58%, and both Ohio and South Dakota landed at an even 50%. Nationwide, the soybean crop ratings break down to 1% very poor, 4% poor, 28% fair, 58% good, and 9% excellent. A handful of states currently have double-digit excellent ratings. These states include Iowa (18%), Wisconsin (16%), Tennessee (14%), Mississippi (13%), Nebraska (12%), and Arkansas (12%).

EU Open to Lowering Tariffs on U.S. Fertilizers in Trade Talks

The European Union says it is open to lowering tariffs on U.S. fertilizer imports as an offer in trade talks with the Trump administration but will not weaken its food safety standards in pursuit of a deal. Whether that would mean zero tariffs, or a reduction of current rates, would need to be negotiated. U.S. exports face the EU’s standard tariffs of 5.5% on imports of ammonia, and 6.5% on nitrogen fertilizers. Reducing tariffs could boost Europe’s purchases of U.S. fertilizer, to fill a gap as the EU cuts supplies from Russia. Around 24% of the EU’s nitrogen fertilizer imports came from Russia in 2023, while the U.S. accounted for 8%, EU data shows. Europeans would prefer buying fertilizers from the U.S. than from Russia. The EU will hit nitrogen-based fertilizers from Russia with tariffs rising to 100% over three years, a level that would effectively halt annual trade flows currently worth 1.3 billion euros ($1.5 billion).

Iowa Landowners Urge Gov. Reynolds to Pass Bill Limiting Eminent Domain for CO2 Pipelines

Gov. Kim Reynolds has just two weeks to either sign or veto a controversial bill that would impact carbon dioxide pipelines in Iowa. On a Friday press call, landowners urged Reynolds to uphold Iowa and GOP values around property rights by signing the bill into law. House File 639 advanced from the Senate May 13, following four years of effort from a group of landowners and House lawmakers. The bill would do a number of things including require carbon sequestration projects to prove they are a common carrier, in order to use eminent domain. The legislation, and landowner support, comes largely in response to a proposed carbon sequestration pipeline project, the Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline, that would connect to nearly 60 ethanol plants and pipe the sequestered carbon dioxide through Iowa and surrounding states to underground storage in North Dakota. Those opposed to the project say a private company should not be given the right to condemn agricultural land.

Senator Seeks Ban on Foreign Nationals in Agriculture Research

Senator Tom Cotton has introduced the Biothreat Prevention Act, legislation that would ban federal funding to any lab or university conducting agricultural research involving nationals from China, Russia, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, or North Korea. “Foreign terrorists that seek to poison and destroy America’s food supply should not have access to American labs and universities,” the Arkansas Republican said. This comes after two Chinese researchers were charged with smuggling a fungus known to be a “potential agroterrorism weapon” into the U.S. The bill is designed to limit potential threats to U.S. agriculture by restricting foreign nationals from working on sensitive or federally funded agricultural research projects. In 2020, a University of Arkansas professor was arrested for wire fraud and pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI after receiving a grant from NASA.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CDT

Crop Progress at 3 p.m. CDT

Weather

A slight (level 2/5) risk for potentially severe thunderstorms extends across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Monday as a broken line of thunderstorms could form from western Tennessee into Ohio Monday afternoon. Damaging winds gusts will be the primary threat with any stronger storms that form, but a few brief tornadoes or hail near 1 inch in diameter could develop. By later Monday afternoon into Monday night, isolated to scattered severe storms could also threaten parts of the Southeast.

Grain Processing Groups Disappointed with FDA Commissioner

he National Oilseed Processors Association and the Corn Refiners Association released a statement on the incorrect and misleading comments from FDA Commissioner Marty Makary. The Food and Drug Administration leader spoke about seed oils, saying, “Generally, they’re believed to be pro-inflammatory,” a disparaging comment that goes against the weight of established science. “We support the administration’s underlying goals of improving public health, so it’s unfortunate to see officials offer misguided comments that go against current understanding of the scientific evidence,” the groups said. “Seed oils are not inflammatory as demonstrated by large population studies and human intervention studies.” They also said seed oils have been used in the global food supply for decades and are proven to be safe and nutritious ingredients for a variety of products. “Remarks like those create unwarranted anxiety about the food supply and the formula that benefits millions of infants globally,” they added. 

Ethanol Output Hits Highest Level in Two Months

The Energy Information Administration says U.S. ethanol output jumped to the highest level in over two months, and inventories improved in the week ending on May 30. EIA data says production rose an average of 1.105 million barrels during the week, up from 1.056 million barrels the previous week and the highest production since March 14. Midwestern output increased to an average of 1.047 million barrels per day, up from 999,000 barrels the prior week. Gulf Coast production increased to 26,000 barrels a day, up by 1,000 barrels a day from the previous week. West Coast output improved to 9,000 barrels a day, up from 8,000 the week before. The East Coast and Rocky Mountain regions were unchanged compared to the prior week at 12,000 and 11,000 barrels per day, respectively. Ethanol inventories during the same week rose to 24.44 million barrels, up from 24.282 million barrels a week earlier. 

The Impact of “One Big, Beautiful Bill” on U.S. Ag

The House of Representatives advanced the “One Big Beautiful Bill” to the Senate. It’s a significant step toward restoring some longer-term certainty for farmers and ranchers after a series of short-term extensions of the 2018 Farm Bill. The bill comes amid continued challenges like volatile markets, high production costs, and weather disasters. The bill combines several provisions across commodity programs and tax policy into one comprehensive package supported by ag groups like the American Farm Bureau. The Congressional Budget Office said the House-passed version would increase agriculture-facing program spending by $56.6 billion over the next decade. Of the total increase, $52.3 billion is tied to enhancements in the farm safety net, such as higher reference prices under Price Loss Coverage, adjusted formulas for Agricultural Risk Coverage, and expanded crop insurance support. The remaining $4.3 billion includes investments in trade promotion, rural school funding, livestock biosecurity research, and energy programs. 

Applications Open for Taiwan Trade Mission

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service is now accepting applications(Link is external) for its upcoming agribusiness trade mission to Taiwan from September 29-October 1. U.S. exporters interested in expanding their trade opportunities in Taiwan’s thriving agricultural market must apply by Tuesday, June 17. “With strong economic growth and proven demand for high-quality U.S. food in Taiwan, now is an ideal time for U.S. agribusinesses to expand their presence,” said FAS Administrator Daniel Whitley. “This trade mission will connect U.S. exporters with key buyers and help them forge partnerships to tap into this dynamic market.” Taiwan is the eighth-largest for America’s agricultural exports, with trade increasing 16 percent from 2019 to 2024. The U.S. remains Taiwan’s top supplier, accounting for 25 percent of its agricultural import market. The USDA says there should be strong opportunities for businesses that supply a number of products, including beef, pork, fresh fruit, dairy, and many others. 

Senate Expands Non-dairy Milk Access in Schools

The Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine, Friends of the Earth, and other members of the Plant-Powered School Meals Coalition applauded the Senate Agriculture Committee’s actions on increasing non-dairy milk options in schools. The Committee advanced provisions that will make it easier for students to access non-dairy milk options in schools. The changes, included in the amended Whole Milk For Healthy Kids Act, remove key barriers that have long prevented students, especially those who are lactose intolerant, from receiving a nutritionally appropriate beverage option at school. Under current law, students are only guaranteed a substitute for cow’s milk, such as fortified soy milk, if a parent submits a physician’s note documenting a disability, and schools are prohibited from proactively offering soy milk in the lunch line. The red tape places an unnecessary burden on families and disproportionately impacts families of color, in which rates of lactose intolerance are the highest.

Showcasing Lamb as a Summer Protein Option

This summer, the American Lamb Board is emphasizing cut variety and seasonal versatility by teaming up with Homemade and Leading Lambassadors to offer trendy and accessible recipes that showcase American lamb as the ideal summer protein. The recipes span from elegant dinner party main courses to casual grilling favorites, all aimed at inspiring home cooks and increasing lamb demand during the peak of the grilling season. The ongoing collaboration is with the largest online cooking school, Homemade, and continues with classes spotlighting American lamb throughout the summer. Homemade’s Fan of Lamb Cooking Club kicks off the summer season on June 10 at 5 PM, Mountain Time, with a Father’s Day meal inspiration class featuring a grilled Hot Honey Leg of Lamb. Additionally, four exciting new Homemade developed recipes will be showcased on the American Lamb website and social media channels during June, encouraging followers to experiment with delicious flavors.

Friday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Employment and Wage Data for May at 7:30 a.m. CDT

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report at 2:30 p.m. CDT

Weather

A stalled front from the Ohio Valley back through the Southern Plains will be an active zone for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day Friday. Widespread severe weather will be possible in this zone, which should extend a bit farther south through the Tennessee Valley as well. Isolated showers are falling farther to the north of this main area of focus for Friday.

Farmer Sentiment Reaches Four-Year High in May

Farmer sentiment in May climbed to its highest level since May 2021. The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index reached 158, ten points above April. Farmers were more optimistic about current conditions and future expectations. The Current Conditions Index climbed five points to 146, and the Future Expectations Index jumped 12 points to 164. Behind the sentiment improvement, farmers’ views were much more optimistic about U.S. agricultural export prospects, combined with a less negative view of tariffs’ impact on 2025 farm income, than respondents were in March or April. The Farm Financial Performance Index improved by eight points to 109 in May, indicating farmers expect 2025 income to be somewhat stronger than 2024. Despite expectations for stronger financial performance this year, the Farm Capital Investment Index dropped six points from April to May with a reading of 55. The Short-term Farmland Value Expectations rose 14 points to 124.

Chinese Nationals Charged with Smuggling Biological Pathogen into U.S.

Two citizens of the People’s Republic of China were charged in a criminal complaint with conspiracy, smuggling goods into the U.S., making false statements, and visa fraud. The FBI arrested the two Chinese citizens in connection with allegations related to their smuggling into America a fungus that scientific literature classifies as a potential agroterrorism weapon. This noxious fungus causes “head blight,” a disease of wheat, barley, maize, and rice, and is responsible for billions of dollars in economic losses worldwide every year. If the fungus is taken in by humans or livestock, it can cause vomiting, liver damage, and reproductive defects. “The alleged actions of the Chinese nationals, including a loyal member of the Chinese Communist Party, are of the gravest national security concerns,” said U.S. Attorney Jerome Gorgon, Jr. “The two are charged with smuggling a fungus described as a potential agroterrorism weapon into the heartland of America.” 

Panel Discusses Pork Industry’s Policy Goals

At the 2025 World Pork Expo, leaders from the National Pork Producers Council delivered a clear message: the pork industry’s future will be strengthened by a united, proactive approach to advocacy. NPPC leaders outlined how a comprehensive, coordinated strategy is delivering results for America’s pork producers. From local legislation to global trade, the panel emphasized that challenges facing producers require alignment across all levels of policy influence, including state, federal, international, and corporate. “Our advocacy focused on defending the freedom to operate and making sure every producer, regardless of size or location, has a voice,” said NPPC President Duane Stateler. Bryan Humphreys, NPPC CEO, talked about the importance of persistence and bipartisan engagement in Washington, D.C. “Wins take time, and there is a lot of important work happening behind the scenes,” Humphreys said. “Staying at the table across administration changes and political divides is how to make lasting change.” 

Significant Honeybee Colony Losses Caused by Virus

New research from the USDA’s Agricultural Research Service sheds light on the causes behind the catastrophic honeybee colony losses reported by commercial beekeepers this year. The findings point to an alarmingly high level of viral infections caused by Varroa mites that have resistant genes to a common treatment. The study analyzed samples from six major commercial beekeeping operations affected by the losses and provided the most detailed evidence of the biological factors behind the widespread die-offs. Collectively, the operations reported losses averaging over 60 percent of their colonies just as they were being staged for California’s almond pollination season. All of the Varroa mites collected tested positive for a genetic marker linked to resistance to Amitraz, the most commonly used mite treatment in commercial beekeeping. “We can’t keep relying on a single line of defense against Varroa mites, which are quickly evolving,” said Patty Sundberg, President of the American Beekeeping Federation.

CBO: Tariffs Will Reduce Deficits by $2.5 Trillion

Tariffs put in place by President Donald Trump will take a big bite out of U.S. deficit levels, reducing them by $2.5 trillion over the next decade and shrinking the size of the U.S. economy. A Congressional Budget Office analysis showed that the deficit reduction is almost exactly the same size as the deficit addition that would result from the GOP’s “big, beautiful bill.” The Hill says a separate analysis from the CBO found the bill would add up to $2.4 trillion to deficits through 2034. The tariffs measured by the CBO are those in place from January 6 through May 13 and include the trade truce with China announced on May 12. Despite announcing several pauses in tariffs on other countries, several tariffs are still in effect despite negotiations with those countries. The overall tariff rate is now between 10 and 15 percent, the highest level in decades. 

Senate Ag Committee Advances Whole Milk Bill

Groups like the National Milk Producers Federation and others applauded the Senate Ag Committee for supporting, by voice vote, the “Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act.” The bill’s markup is a critical first step in passing the bipartisan legislation, which has already been approved at the House committee level. “The Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act is about making informed, science-backed decisions that prioritize the health and future of our children,” said NMPF President and CEO Gregg Doud. “Passing the Act will allow more schoolkids to access the essential nutrients they need in their diets, and that’s something everyone can get behind.” If signed into law, the bill would provide schools with the option of serving whole and two-percent milk, the two most consumed varieties at home, and offer 13 essential nutrients like protein and calcium. Currently, school meal rules in place since 2012 allow only one percent and fat-free options.  

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CDT

U.S. April Trade Balance at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Weekly Slaughter Report at 2 p.m. CDT

Weather

A front is stalled out near the Ohio River that should see plenty of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day Thursday. A disturbance is continuing to produce showers in the Southeast. Another system is moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains, where batches of showers and thunderstorms are already developing Thursday morning, and may become severe across the South throughout the day.

Farmers Set to Lose Billions Without Tax Cut Extension

If Congress doesn’t extend current tax provisions, America’s farmers and ranchers will be forced to pay up to $9 billion more in federal taxes every year. Tax relief enacted by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is set to expire at the end of this year, which would lead to tax increases for almost two-thirds of families, including those in rural America. “The size of a federal tax bill can make or break farm profitability, particularly for small farms on the brink of breaking even,” said an American Farm Bureau Market Intel Report. “Each dollar that comes out of a farm family’s bank account to pay taxes is one less they can spend on improving their operations, one less to hire another worker, and one less they can put toward growing food, fiber, and fuel.” The average American farm would pay an additional $5,125 per year in taxes.

USDA Leading Trade Mission to Peru in June

The USDA will lead a high-impact trade mission to Peru from June 9-12 aimed at expanding market access and boosting U.S. agricultural exports to help address a $3.66 billion trade deficit with Peru. The delegation includes more than 50 agribusinesses, trade organizations, and representatives from five state departments of agriculture working to strengthen economic ties. “USDA is committed to enhancing export opportunities for American farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses,” says Foreign Agricultural Service Administrator Daniel Whitley, who will lead the trade mission. Peru is the fourth-largest market for American agricultural exports in South America, and the U.S. is Peru’s second-largest agricultural supplier. Despite bilateral agricultural trade growing by 263 percent to $5.3 billion since 2009, the $3.66 billion agricultural trade deficit persists. The mission aims to build on this growth, bridge the gap, and increase U.S. exports. Trade mission participants will engage in business-to-business meetings with buyers from Peru and Ecuador.

Iowa and Vietnam Delegation Sign MOUs

Iowa welcomed over 50 members of a Vietnamese delegation to the Iowa State Capitol for the signing of five memoranda of understanding (MOUs) between the Vietnamese feed industry and private U.S. companies. The focus of the signing is increasing the trade of U.S. grains, including corn. Two MOUs signed were specific to corn and DDGS, equaling 900,000 metric tons of U.S. corn and 250,000 metric tons of DDGS. “Vietnam is a strategic trading partner with the United States and is a top importer of DDGS,” said Iowa Corn Board President Ralph Lents. “This event showcased an increased commitment from Vietnam to purchase more agricultural products and reinforce the strong partnership between our countries.” The Vietnamese government is also considering the expansion of its ethanol mandate from E5 to E10 for all grades of gasoline. That would mean an additional 200 million gallons of new ethanol demand potential for U.S. producers and exporters. 

FFA Members Attend the Washington Leadership Conference

Thousands of FFA members from across the U.S. will be in Washington, D.C., June 3-July 11. The Washington Leadership Conference offers five week-long blocks that students can choose from. The premier leadership experience for more than 1,600 high school students exposes them to the rich history of the nation’s capital. WLC, which has been taking place for more than 50 years, inspires FFA members to become changemakers in their communities. A key aspect of the conference is for the students to learn how to advocate for agriculture and agricultural education, and this is accomplished through congressional visits and meeting in person with their state representatives and senators. Each day of the conference focuses on a different principle taught in the context of the nation’s capital, including exploration, encouragement, advocacy, and service. At the end of the week, attendees leave with a Living to Serve plan they can implement in their communities.

USDA Dairy Gets Greater Access to Costa Rica

America’s dairy farmers will have greater market access to Costa Rica, which approved the first U.S. dairy facility to be registered under their new streamlined approval process. “Securing greater market access for American dairy farmers is a much-needed win for the U.S. dairy industry and will give U.S. producers better-increased access to the $130 million market in Costa Rica,” said Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins. “I look forward to breaking down trade barriers and opening new markets for our farmers and ranchers around the globe.” On May 22, Costa Rica’s National Animal Health Service officially approved the first American dairy cooperative to export to Costa Rica, making it the first U.S. dairy facility to be registered under the new streamlined process that eases market access for U.S. dairy exports to Costa Rica. It’s a $60 million market that could have been lost if the U.S. administration was unable to navigate the new approval process. 

Purdue Researchers Develop a New Avian Influenza Test

Purdue University researchers have developed an innovative, paper-based diagnostic test for rapidly detecting avian influenza. The novel test addresses the urgent need for an efficient and cost-effective surveillance tool to combat the global threat posed by avian influenza viruses. The test is suitable for use in field settings, including areas with limited access to advanced laboratory facilities. A key advantage of the test is its potential use across a variety of species. It works by using an oral or nasal swab and then transferring the sample to paper-based devices. The test should work across different livestock species like poultry and dairy animals, wildlife like birds and rodents, and even humans. The role of avian flu is contributing to the higher cost of eggs due to the falling levels of supplies in the country. Other factors add to the costs, including rigorous and expensive protection measures for enhanced sanitation on farms.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

EIA Petroleum Status Report including weekly ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CDT

Weather

A front is stretching out on Wednesday, but showers and thunderstorms will continue from Texas to Michigan throughout the day. Some areas of severe weather and heavy rain are possible, but the chances are lower than the last couple of days. A disturbance in Florida will be drifting northward, bringing scattered showers to the Southeast as well. Isolated showers will be possible across the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies in some cooler air behind the front

China Says U.S. Violated Trade Truce

A new sign of deteriorating relations between the U.S. and China happened on Monday as China accused the U.S. of violating the trade truce the countries signed last month. Axios said China promised to take “resolute and forceful” steps. The agreement signed in Switzerland led to a deal to lower tariffs on each other for 90 days while they negotiated on trade. Late last week, U.S. President Donald Trump accused Beijing of violating the agreement, one day after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described negotiations as “a bit stalled.” A spokesperson from the Chinese Commerce Ministry said Beijing rejects the unjustified accusations. While President Trump didn’t go into details, administration officials have pointed to delays in sending critical minerals to the U.S., which are needed by several U.S. industries, including agriculture. U.S. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said President Trump and Xi Jinping will talk on the phone this week.