Ag Organizations Respond to U.S.–China Agreement

The American Farm Bureau Federation  and the American Soybean Association both welcomed news of China’s renewed commitment to import U.S. agricultural products. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said the organization was encouraged by China’s plans to buy more soybeans and sorghum, noting that trade disputes have already burdened farmers facing high costs and low prices. ASA President Daryl Cates called the announcement a positive step for soybean growers who have endured years of global uncertainty. He emphasized that China remains one of the most vital export markets for U.S. soybeans, but long-term progress depends on predictable and transparent trade policies. Both organizations stressed that while the agreement signals improvement, consistent purchases and reliable market access are essential for restoring confidence and stability in U.S.–China agricultural trade.

Commodity Prices Fall Amid Record Global Supplies

Grain and oilseed markets continued to weaken Friday as record harvests weighed on prices. Wheat and soybean futures slipped overnight, extending a month-long downturn fueled by abundant global supplies and soft export demand. Analysts said favorable weather across major producing regions and expanded planted acreage have led to an oversupply, pressuring commodity markets already facing narrow profit margins for farmers. The World Bank last week projected agricultural commodity prices will fall about 7% in both 2025 and 2026, marking the longest decline since the early 2010s. Lower input costs and improving logistics have helped stabilize production, but they also risk further depressing prices if demand fails to rebound. Traders are watching for updated U.S. Department of Agriculture data this week, which could confirm another record corn and soybean harvest. Futures remained mixed in early trading, with wheat down 0.8% and soybeans off 0.5%.

USDA Transfers $13B into ‘Slush Fund’ for Future Tariff Relief

The U.S. Department of Agriculture transferred $13 billion from its Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) into a new “Farmers Support Program” fund tied to tariff relief — a move that has drawn scrutiny because lawmakers were not informed. Government Executive reports the CCC is a long-standing account that supports core farm programs such as conservation payments, dairy margins and price support. Because the funds were shifted without notifying Congress, some critical programs are facing shortfalls. About $3 billion of the transferred money was later clawed back to resume operations of certain USDA services and reopen agency offices during a government shutdown. But roughly $10 billion remains in the Office of the Secretary, unused pending activation of the tariff relief program. Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), a top appropriations member, criticized the move as undermining key farm programs and centralizing funds without oversight.

Senate Rebukes Tariffs on Brazilian Coffee

The U.S. Senate voted 52–48 this week to end tariffs on Brazilian imports, including coffee, in a bipartisan rebuke of President Donald Trump’s trade policy. The tariffs, imposed under emergency powers in July, added a 50% duty on goods from Brazil, citing concerns over the prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., led the resolution, arguing the tariffs have driven up grocery costs, with coffee prices rising more than 20%. Five Republicans — Mitch McConnell, Rand Paul, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Thom Tillis — joined Democrats in support. While the measure is unlikely to advance in the House or survive a veto, it highlights growing frustration in Congress over the use of emergency powers for trade. Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter, has warned the tariffs threaten jobs and strain U.S.-Brazil relations.

“Legacy Effects” in Soil Microbes Influence Plant Resilience

Scientists at the University of Kansas are uncovering how soil microbes retain “legacy effects” that shape how plants respond to changing environments. The research, published in Nature Microbiology, examined soils from six locations across Kansas — from the humid tallgrass prairies in the east to the drier shortgrass regions in the west. Researchers conditioned the microbial communities under both drought and well-watered conditions before planting native grasses and maize. They found that soils with a history of drought fostered microbial communities that improved drought tolerance in a native prairie grass by altering root gene expression related to water uptake. However, those benefits were less pronounced in maize, suggesting native plants are better tuned to local microbial legacies. The findings highlight how past climate and land use can leave lasting microbial “memories” in soil, which may be harnessed to improve crop resilience as global temperatures and droughts intensify. 

Traces of Old Farm Chemicals Contaminate Water Across the US

Traces of long-banned pesticides persist in U.S. groundwater, a new U.S. Geological Survey study shows, even as concentrations of most chemicals generally declined. An analysis of 59 groundwater networks from 1993 to 2023 found only one pesticide — the insecticide DBCP, outlawed since 1977 — exceeded health benchmarks in a Central Valley site in California. The New Lede reports levels of the remaining 58 old-school chemicals dropped across the networks. Yet persistent traces remain, particularly in farm regions such as the Midwest, underscoring long-term contamination. The study coincides with proposed U.S. Geological Survey budget cuts under the Trump administration. The administration has characterized environmental monitoring as politically driven, while the Office of Management and Budget seeks to slash USGS funding by 38%. Critics warn reduced funding could cripple the nation’s ability to track water quality and pesticide risks nationwide. 

Monday Watch List

Markets

To begin the month of November, USDA will update traders on export pace with their weekly inspections report due out at 10 a.m. CST. Otherwise, it may be a return to a quiet tone in the markets for the most part following last week's trade focus and heightened volatility. USDA announced that the November WASDE will indeed be released towards the middle of the month, however, which will keep speculators engaged with price bets on where USDA will forecast U.S. row crop balance sheets for 2025-26.

Weather

A clipper system moving through central Canada is producing showers around Michigan early Monday morning. That will combine with a coastal system in the Mid-Atlantic to bring scattered showers into the Northeast later Monday. Breezier winds across the north may be a noticeable feature across northern areas as well. The next clipper will move through the Pacific Northwest with limited showers on Monday as well.

China Commits to Future Soybean Buys

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans this year. Bloomberg said that’s brought some relief to American farmers pushing for resumption of trade with China, the world’s biggest soybean importer. Bessent told Fox Business that China will also buy a minimum of 25 million tons annually for the following three years. President Donald Trump said China will start buying immediately and will be purchasing “tremendous” amounts of soybeans, but he didn’t provide additional details on the size of purchases. “The 12 million tons wasn’t surprising as China has little need for additional soybeans because of ample shipments from South America,” said Brian Grete (GRAY-tee) of Commstock. “In the longer term, buying 25 million tons a year would basically be getting back to normal.” Chinese commercial purchases would require Beijing to roll back the tariffs imposed on U.S. soybeans earlier this year.

Rural Mainstreet Index Reaches Five-Year Low

For the eighth time this year, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index sank below a growth-neutral score of 50.0. That’s according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a ten-state region dependent on agriculture. The October reading was 34.6, its lowest level since May 2020, down from 38.5 in September. “Weak agriculture commodity prices for grain producers continue to dampen economic activity in the region,” said Creighton University’s Ernie Goss (GAHS). While tariffs are producing higher economic volatility, 72 percent of bank CEOs gauge President Trump’s approach to China as “about right.” In other areas, farmland prices sank below growth-neutral for the 17th time in 18 months. Farm loan delinquency rates rose from a very low 1.1 percent in June 2025 to 1.6 percent this month. The farm equipment sales index increased to a weak 18.8 from 15.2 in September, the 26th-straight month below growth neutral. 

Ethanol Production Drops, Supplies Rise

The Energy Information Administration said ethanol output fell week-to-week while inventories increased during the week that ended on October 24. Production of the biofuel declined to an average of 1.036 million barrels a day during the week, the agency said in a government report that hasn’t been affected so far by the government shutdown. In the Midwest, by far the largest-producing region of the country, output dropped to 1.036 million barrels a day, on average, from 1.051 million the week before. Gulf Coast production fell to 1.036 million barrels, the EIA said. East Coast production was unchanged at 12,000 barrels a day, and Rocky Mountain output was steady at 10,000 barrels a day. The West Coast was the lone gainer, rising to an average of 10,000 barrels a day. Ethanol inventories rose to 22.367 million barrels. The EIA said that’s up from 21.919 million barrels the previous week.

Mexico: Still No Date to Resume Beef Exports to the U.S.

Mexico and the U.S. haven’t yet agreed to resume Mexican beef cattle exports into the U.S. amid the outbreak of the New World Screwworm in Mexico. Mexico’s ag minister announced that during a press conference with President Claudia Sheinbaum. Julio (WHO-lee-oh) Berdegue spoke with U.S. Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins in a video conference and said they made advances, but still don’t have a date for reopening the U.S. border to Mexican cattle. The two top agriculture officials agreed to test modular mobile plants in Mexico that could increase sterile fly production by up to 20 million additional flies each week, if they are successful. The U.S. government has kept its border mostly closed to Mexican cattle imports since May because of the New World Screwworm, which can infest and kill large numbers of cattle if untreated. The infestation has moved from Central America into Mexico, rattling livestock producers in each country. 

Chicken Council Comments on “Ultra-Processed Foods”

The National Chicken Council recently submitted detailed comments on developing a uniform definition of “ultra-processed foods.” The comments were in response to a request for information from the Food and Drug Administration and the USDA. NCC expressed significant concerns about a classification system and contends that FDA and USDA should bolster existing frameworks and consumer education as science evolves, instead of pursuing a classification system at all. However, should the agencies choose to move forward with a classification system, NCC urges the use of a uniform, science-based approach to characterizing foods – one that prioritizes nutritional composition and ingredient function over the number of processing steps or ingredients. “We urge the agencies to adopt a nutrition-led framework that promotes the consumption of safe, affordable, and culturally important proteins like chicken,” said Dr. Ashley Peterson, NCC senior vice president of scientific affairs. “Should they choose to pursue a classification system, we’ll work together.” 

National FFA Convention to Stay in Indianapolis Till 2040

The National FFA announced that the National FFA Convention & Expo will continue to be held in Indianapolis, Indiana, through at least 2040. The announcement was made during the kickoff event for the 98th National FFA Convention & Expo, which brings more than 71,000 FFA members, advisors, alumni, and supporters to Indianapolis from across the country. “We’re thrilled about the opportunity to continue calling Indianapolis home for our convention through 2040,” said Cheryl Zimmerman, National FFA Organization Executive Secretary. “This city has proven time and again to be an incredible partner, welcoming our members with open arms, providing world-class facilities, and helping us create life-changing experiences for students in agricultural education.” She also said extending the convention contract ensures FFA can keep building on that strong foundation and inspiring the next generation of agriculture leaders for years to come. Each year, the Convention and Expo brings about $40 million to Indianapolis. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

To close the week as well as the month of October, traders will watch for further details on the U.S.-China trade agreement, although the market may see a decline in volatility following the Trump-Xi meeting. In other news for Friday, harvest prices will be established for crop insurance purposes.

Weather

A nip is in the air for most areas of the U.S. on Friday with some frosts for areas across the South. A system is leaving the Northeast, but another clipper-like system moving into the Central U.S. is producing some clouds and areas of light showers that may have an impact for trick-or-treaters this evening.

China Buys the First U.S. Soybeans of the Season

China’s state-owned agri-food company, called COFCO (China National Cereals, Oils, and Foodstuffs), bought three cargoes of U.S. soybeans this week. Two trade sources told Reuters that the country’s first U.S. soybean buy of the season happened shortly before a summit of leaders Donald Trump and Xi (ZHEE) Jinping. The deal calls for a December-January shipment of about 180,000 metric tons of soybeans, the first purchase in months. However, traders say they don’t expect a significant resumption in demand for U.S. soybeans after several big purchases of South American soybeans. Bloomberg said grain traders have been optimistic that China and the U.S. would eventually reach a deal this week, which pushed soybean prices higher in Chicago. However, they are still cautious about how much China will actually purchase during this season. With weak Chinese soymeal prices, some still question the profitability of soy imports for Chinese crushers, even if tariffs revert to pre-war levels. 

Senate Votes Against Trump Tariffs

The Senate once again pushed back against tariffs put in place by President Donald Trump, voting against the 50 percent tariff on Brazilian beef imports. Senators voted 52-48 to end the national emergency declared by Trump in order to impose the duties. Five Republican Senators joined Democrats in approving the move. Politico said it’s the first in a series of three resolutions intended to stop the president’s tariffs on Brazil and Canada, as well as Trump’s tariffs on other countries around the world. The vote does remain largely symbolic because of the House of Representatives, in which Republican leadership blocked the chamber from a potential vote to block the tariffs until March. “Republican senators who go home feel like they’ve been hit with a wrecking ball,” said Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR). “People come up to all of us and say, ‘The tariffs are killing us.’ In grocery stores, people are upset.” 

Two Dozen States Sue Over Food Stamp Suspension

A group of over two dozen states has sued the Trump administration over its decision to suspend Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits on November 1. The move came as the government shutdown continues. The lawsuit is co-led by New York, California, and Massachusetts. The Democratic attorneys general and three governors in the lawsuit want a federal judge to order the USDA to tap into emergency funds to distribute food benefits to almost 42 million families who rely on SNAP for help to buy groceries. The suit said the federal government is obligated by law to maintain food benefits to the low-income households that rely on the program. They’re asking a federal court to issue a ruling by Friday. The Guardian notes that SNAP is the nation’s largest food assistance program. USDA said the program serves about one in every eight low-income Americans at a cost of about $8 billion a month.

Grains Group Applauds Asian Trade Deal Announcements

The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office announced that agreements on reciprocal trade were reached over the weekend with Cambodia and Malaysia. Framework agreements for similar trade deals were secured with Thailand and Vietnam with the goal of eliminating trade barriers to further increase U.S. producers’ competitiveness. The U.S. Grains and Bioproducts Council issued a statement reacting positively to the announcement. “The Council believes that when trade works, the world wins, and the steps that the U.S. Trade Representative’s, Office led by Jamieson Greer, has taken to facilitate the movement of U.S. agricultural goods are a welcome sight for the entire industry,” said Ryan LeGrand, USGBC president and CEO. “The Council looks forward to the USTR’s continued efforts that will help reduce costs for consumers and drive demand around the world for U.S. farmers and businesses.” The announcement mirrored the Council’s mission of developing export markets for U.S. barley, corn, sorghum, and ethanol. 

NPPC Proposes Strategy to Define “Ultra-Processed Foods”

The National Pork Producers Council has held ongoing discussions with the Trump administration ahead of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans release. The NPPC has formally expressed concerns regarding the Food and Drug Administration’s forthcoming definition of “ultra-processed foods,” which could be damaging for consumers of pork products. The Council made several recommendations to the FDA, including to not classify food as ultra-processed simply because it doesn’t fit into one of the categories in the problematic NOVA classification system. Such a sorting focuses on the food processing rather than the nutritional benefits. They’d also like the agency to not classify foods as ultra-processed that contain ingredients to enhance food safety, shelf stability, and nutrient availability. “As there is no consensus on what constitutes an ‘ultra-processed food,’ the FDA should elevate the importance of nutritional composition, while also protecting the processing and ingredients promoting food safety and nutrient availability,” the NPPC said. 

National Farmers Union Convention Registration is Open

You are invited to join family farmers and ranchers from across the country in New Orleans, Louisiana, for the National Farmers Union’s 124th anniversary convention. It’s three days of meaningful fellowship, thoughtful policy conversations, and inspiring speakers. The NFU said, “2025 brought plenty of challenges, including a new administration, a new policy landscape, trade disruptions, rising costs, and economic uncertainty. Our convention is a time to find strength through connection and prepare for another year of fighting for family agriculture, as we’ve done for more than 120 years.” With so much at stake, the organization encourages farmers and other interested ag stakeholders not too miss the opportunity to shape Farmers Union’s grassroots advocacy priorities to ensure a brighter future for farmers, ranchers, and rural communities. The group says the convention is even more interesting and fun with friends and family. Anyone can attend the 124th Anniversary Convention — not just Farmers Union members.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

No major economic reports scheduled as the U.S. government shutdown enters its 30th day on Thursday. Ag trade will be focused on reported details from President Trump's meeting with President Xi of China which began during the late evening Wednesday in U.S. time.

Weather

A system that has produced heavy rain and strong winds this week is now moving up into the Northeast on Thursday. Cold air is still moving in behind the system, especially across the southern tier of the country which may result in some frosts Friday morning. An additional little clipper moving through the Canadian Prairies is producing some isolated showers in the Northern Plains as well.

Fertilizer Institute Wants Policy to Strengthen Input Supplies

As farmers continue navigating a period of tight margins and volatile markets, The Fertilizer Institute is urging policymakers to focus on practical solutions. TFI president and CEO Corey Rosenbusch said the solutions need to strengthen U.S. agriculture, expand markets for producers, and ensure farmers have access to fertilizer exactly when and where it’s needed. “America’s farmers are the most productive in the world, and we’re proud to stand with them through the challenging market conditions we are experiencing as global factors continue driving fertilizer costs,” Rosenbusch said. TFI listed a number of steps to accomplish its goals, including advancing a national policy to expand domestic fertilizer production, appointing a full-time USDA Fertilizer Economist to monitor market dynamics, and streamlining federal permitting and regulatory reviews to accelerate construction and modernization of fertilizer plants, mines, and infrastructure. “The input industries like fertilizer and seed all rely on strong, stable farm demand,” Rosenbusch added.

Meat Institute Applauds Asian Trade Deals

The Meat Institute reacted positively after the White House announced trade deals with Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. “We applaud the elimination of onerous establishment and product registration requirements and the reinforcement of sound, internationally recognized science in determining market access,” said Julie Anna Potts, president and CEO of the Meat Institute. “We are so grateful to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Assistant USTR for Agricultural Affairs Julie Callahan for their hard work to address both tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade that have been challenging meat and poultry exports for years.” Potts also said the Meat Institute is pleased that Cambodia and Malaysia agreed to our protections for common meat product names, and as negotiations proceed with Thailand and Vietnam, her organization will continue working with the White House to ensure the final agreements include these provisions. 

Winter Wheat Planting Continues Slowly

Recent rains brought much-needed soil moisture across Kansas, improving prospects for fall wheat stands. At the same time, the weather-restoring soil moisture has also slowed wheat planting progress, leaving many farmers behind schedule. In central Kansas, Derek Sawyer, chair of the Kansas Wheat Commission, said planting progress in his area is only about halfway complete. “Acres are steady so far, but overall, I think acres will be down because fall harvest has been delayed,” Sawyer said. “We’re up against the deadline for double-cropping behind corn or beans.”  While moisture conditions are favorable, the season has also brought reports of fall armyworms. Damage has been mostly to early-grazing wheat, but growers are encouraged to watch for pressure on emerging stands. Fields can often recover if the pressure drops quickly, but replanting may be needed in areas more heavily affected. As fields dry, producers still should quickly finish planting.

Rounds: Packers and Stockyards Act Being Ignored

South Dakota Senator Mike Rounds met recently with President Donald Trump and Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins to discuss the president’s plan to import some beef from Argentina. Rounds said they agreed the U.S. needs an America First game plan that prioritizes American farmers and ranchers. Following the meeting, Rounds said he was encouraged by the president’s desire to do right by the American producer. Opening the market to even more foreign beef, which American consumers cannot differentiate because of current labeling rules, would only exacerbate the problem and hurt domestic producers. Implementing Mandatory Country-of-Origin Labeling would empower consumers to choose, but instead it “continues to sit on the shelf gathering dust.” Rounds said the Packers and Stockyards Act continues to be ignored, as four companies – two of which are Brazilian-owned – monopolize the beef processing market. He said that the issue cannot be resolved by displacing American beef with foreign beef. 

Food Banks Bracing for November Surge

As the government shutdown continues, the USDA published a website notice saying federal food aid will not be going out to families nationwide. The USDA notice says “the well has run dry” for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which helps roughly one in eight Americans buy groceries. A Reuters report said nine food banks and anti-hunger groups located in eight states say they’re going to have a hard time absorbing higher demand if SNAP funds don’t get distributed, especially since hunger in the U.S. has already risen over multiple years. Food banks have already seen record demand in recent years as food price inflation continues to strain household food budgets. Feeding America, a national food bank network, said over 50 million people received food from food banks, pantries, and other charitable sources in 2023. The shutdown also threatens almost seven million participants in the Women, Infants, and Children, or WIC (wick) Program. 

Communicating with Farmers Under Stress Webinar

An upcoming webinar from Penn State University Extension titled “Communicating with Farmers Under Stress” is intended to help participants learn the signs of stress and how to help. It takes place on November 17, 2025, from 10 am to Noon, Eastern Time. The program is designed for ag industry professionals, loan officers, family members of farmers, and concerned citizens. The session will cover how to communicate with and respond to farmers and their family members when they need assistance. The program will help build awareness of stressors affecting farmers and their families, recognize the signs and symptoms of anxiety and warning signs of suicide, and how to assess, approach, and assist farmers showing a change in their mental health. The webinar is free, but participants must register before it starts to get the access link. For more information and to sign up, go to the Penn State Extension website at extension.psu.edu.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Reports for Wednesday include the weekly EIA Petroleum Status report which will update the market on last week's ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CDT. Then at 1 p.m. CDT, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Weather

A system is moving from the Mid-South into the Southeast on Wednesday, bringing areas of showers and a few thunderstorms. Breezy winds are bringing colder air behind the system for the Southern Plains into the Southeast.

Bessent: Deal Set for China to Begin Importing U.S. Soybeans

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects that China won’t impose export controls on rare earth mineral exports, and the U.S. won’t impose 100 percent tariffs on China. During separate interviews over the weekend, Bessent said trade negotiations with China have gone very well. The talks were in anticipation of President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese Premier Xi (ZHEE) Jinping this week. ”President Trump gave me maximum leverage when he threatened 100 percent tariffs if the Chinese put their export controls on rare earth minerals in place,” Bessent said. Because that’s likely been averted, he said the tariffs will be postponed as well.  “We also agreed on substantial agricultural purchases for America’s farmers,” Bessent added. Bloomberg said if the pledge is confirmed by Beijing, it will bring major relief to U.S. farmers struggling with financial stress after China, the world’s top soybean buyer, walked away during the U.S. harvest season. 

Commodity Groups Express Optimism After Weekend Announcements

The Trump administration announced a series of trade deals and frameworks with several Asian countries, some of which include new market access for U.S. ethanol. The deals also include additional opportunities for corn and corn products, like distillers dried grains with solubles. National Corn Growers Association President Jed Bower said this is good news for corn growers. “Eliminating tariffs on ethanol exports to Malaysia and Cambodia will boost demand,” he said. “The announced frameworks with Thailand and Vietnam also hold promise.” Meantime, the American Soybean Association applauded reports of progress in U.S. negotiations with China. “ASA is encouraged by Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments on productive trade talks with China,” said President Caleb Ragland. “Signs of purchase commitments are positive steps, and we look forward to learning more details about the possibilities later this week.” ASA hopes negotiators keep American soybeans at the center of the trade discussions.  

U.S. Pork Industry Gets Good News

President Donald Trump and his administration have signed trade deals with Malaysia and Cambodia,  with the Malaysian portion having an enormous economic potential for America’s pork producers. “We’re grateful to the president for increasing market access for U.S. pork to Malaysia, a country that’s been importing pork despite limited plants being eligible for export,” said NPPC President Duane Stateler. “More than 25 percent of U.S. pork production gets exported, so producers count on exports to help keep their farms afloat, especially in times of uncertainty.” The deal with Malaysia will open access to all U.S. facilities included in the Food Safety and Inspection Service Meat, Poultry, and Egg Inspection Directory. Pork exports to Malaysia hit record levels of over $24.5 million in 2024, a significant amount given that only eight U.S. plants are currently eligible for export. Exports to Malaysia have increased by over 1,700 percent in the last five years. 

Rabobank: Food Inflation Outpacing Overall Inflation

Rabobank says food inflation continues to outpace overall inflation, and restaurants feel the pressure of nine straight quarters of declining traffic, but some chains are bucking the trend and growing in visits and spending. U.S. retail beef prices continue rising, with the USDA’s all-fresh beef price reaching a record $9.18 per pound in August. U.S. cattle slaughter from January through September is down 1.5 million head, a seven percent drop compared to the same period last year. Pork prices are still well ahead of year-ago levels and the five-year average, with cutout values of $109 per hundredweight averaging 15 percent above last year. Chicken production also continues to outpace year-ago levels, and chicken prices have also come down sharply in recent weeks. August milk production increased 3.2 percent versus last year, and at 9.52 million cows, the herd is the largest it’s been since the mid-1990s. July dairy exports were up seven percent year-over-year.

AEI: Farm Machinery Interest Expense at All-Time High

Using the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s farm loan summary data, the economists at Agricultural Economic Insights measured how much it costs to borrow $1,000 for farm machinery. For the first half of 2025, the cost was $154 for every $1,000 borrowed. Going back to 1977, producers have never spent this much to finance $1,000 of farm equipment debt. In recent years, the measure was approximately $135 in 2024 and 2023. In 2022, the expense was $100, and only $79 in 2021. At first glance, the 2025 record may be surprising as it doesn’t align with the 1980s, when the average interest rate on a farm machinery loan approached 18 percent in 1981. Back then, the total interest expense for the life of the loan remained low because the average duration was short, usually 11 months. By the first half of 2025, the average loan maturity was 45.3 months. 

National Ag Day Set For Tuesday, March 24, 2026

The Agriculture Council of America announced that March 24, 2026, will be National Agriculture Day with the theme of “Together We Grow.” Ag Day 2026 also celebrates 250 years of progress in agriculture. Activities planned for March 24 include in-person events in Washington, D.C. A core leadership team of college students will participate in the D.C. events, along with representatives of national farm and commodity organizations, and the food, fuel, and fiber communities. ”Students are interested in advocating on behalf of agriculture and their future roles in the industry,” said Jenny Pickett, ACA President. “Their participation in National Ag Day Activities provides a glimpse of the future of agriculture.” More and more students are finding careers in agriculture, including scientists, biologists, food safety technicians, livestock nutrition specialists, and many other careers. “A student doesn’t have to be a farmer or have a direct on-the-farm job to be involved in agriculture,” Picket added. 

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

No economic reports are due for release on Tuesday. Traders will remain primarily focused on trade related news, specifically awaiting the meeting later this week between China's President Xi and President Trump.

Weather

A system is moving off the Southeast coast Tuesday morning, though showers will continue in the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. Another system is diving through the Plains and will move into the Delta region throughout the day. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms will form across the South while a front that extends northward into Minnesota will continue showers there as well.

Trump Terminates Trade Talks with Canada

U.S. President Donald Trump announced an immediate end to trade negotiations with Canada late Thursday night. The Guardian said it’s a result of Trump’s opposition to a TV ad from Canada that quoted former president Ronald Reagan. The provincial government of Ontario paid for the ad, which uses excerpts from a 1987 speech where the former president said, “Trade barriers hurt every American worker.” Trump posted on social media that Canada had “fraudulently” used an advertisement which he called “fake,” and accused Canada of trying to interfere with U.S. court decisions on the tariffs. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that all trade negotiations have been suspended indefinitely. Trump also claimed that the ad was intended to influence the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court hearings on the legality of his global tariffs. Those hearings begin on November 5. The ad also quoted Reagan as saying, “The way to prosperity is working together.” 

Millions to lose SNAP Benefits on November 1

Millions of Americans face losing their Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits on November 1. Half of the American states plan to end those benefits because the federal government remains shut down. Politico says 25 states have confirmed they’ll be sending letters to program participants to let them know that no checks will be issued in November. Some of the states include California, Arkansas, Hawaii, Indiana, Mississippi, and others. Politico also said states are trying to maintain the programs using their own money and emergency funding from the Trump administration, but the money is running out. Reuters said over 41 million people currently participate in SNAP. Almost seven million people also risk losing their November benefits in the Women’s, Infants, and Children Program, also known as WIC (wick). “Nutrition programs like SNAP and WIC are directly in the crossfire of spending negotiations, with the shutdown recently entering the fourth straight week,” Reuters reported. 

U.S. Already Faces Trade Imbalance with Argentina

In a misguided effort to lower beef prices in U.S. grocery stores, President Trump plans to increase the volume of beef imports from Argentina. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association said efforts to manipulate markets only risk damaging the livelihoods of American producers while doing little to impact what consumers pay at the grocery store. “The U.S. already faces a deep trade imbalance with Argentina, and it will only be made worse by the President’s plan,” said NCBA CEO Colin Woodall. “During the past five years, Argentina has shipped more than $800 million worth of beef to the U.S., while purchasing only $7 million worth of U.S. beef.” As if that’s not enough, Argentina as a nation has a long history of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks, and Woodall said USDA hasn’t completed the necessary steps to ensure Argentina can guarantee the safety of products being shipped here, further endangering America’s cattle herd. 

2025 Wheat Crop Quality Report Provides Essential Information

After collecting and analyzing over 2,250 samples of wheat collected from coast to coast, U.S. Wheat Associates has published the 2025 U.S. Crop Quality Report. The report provides essential, objective information to help global wheat buyers purchase the wheat they need at the best possible value. “The Crop Quality Report provides data to help wheat buyers make informed decisions and to support our millers and bakers in understanding how this year’s crop will perform in their operations,” said Erica Oakley, USW vice president of operations. “A report like this would not be possible without the dedication of American wheat farmers.” Find all crop quality reports and related information at uswheat.org/cropquality. USW staff will take this data to international customers during the organization’s annual crop quality seminars. The global showcase will include 35 seminars in 30 countries across all regions of the world. Non-English versions will be available after translation is complete. 

Quick Frozen Sorghum Officially Hits the Market

The United Sorghum Checkoff Program, in collaboration with Riviana Foods and Harvest Food Group, announced the launch of individually quick frozen, cooked whole grain sorghum that’s now available for purchase at Harvest Food Group. The milestone is the latest innovation effort by USCP to ensure this nutrient-rich, versatile, and resource-efficient grain meets growing demand for convenient, high-quality ingredients in food manufacturing, foodservice, and retail markets. “Riviana is proud to partner with the Sorghum Checkoff to launch Ready-to-Eat-grade IQF sorghum,” said Terry Stover of Riviana Food, Inc. “We’ve spent years perfecting the science of cooking and freezing both conventional and organic ingredients in a single, continuous process, and that expertise is what makes this new RTE-grade IQF sorghum an innovative and easy-to-use addition for restaurants and food manufacturers alike.” Lanier Debruzzi of the Sorghum Checkoff Program said, “This meets the needs of a food industry looking for nutritious, consistent, and ready-to-use grains.” 

Applications Open for Aflatoxin Research Grants

The National Corn Growers Association is calling for a new round of research grants to help farmers manage aflatoxin issues. Letters of intent from collaborators that don’t seek more than the $100,000 per year limit will be accepted by the Aflatoxin Mitigation Center of Excellence no later than Monday, December 1, 2025. The grants program offers research grants for projects focused on solving profit-robbing aflatoxin issues for farmers. Projects funded through the grant program for 2026 should focus on one of three priority research areas, including methodologies and technologies that prevent and—or defend against the presence of aflatoxin, in-field mitigation measures, or post-harvest strategies. While corn farmers in southern states experience aflatoxin challenges every year, these challenges may present themselves in any corn region of the U.S. when the crop comes under stress. The NCGA serves as the management structure to help leverage more dollars for solving aflatoxin issues. 

Monday Watch List

Markets

The U.S. government shutdown will hit its 27th day to begin the week, and subsequently there are no major economic reports scheduled but weekly export inspections will be released at 10 a.m. CDT. The primary storyline the markets will be watching will undoubtedly be President Trump's visit to Asia for the ASEAN Summit this week, culminating with a meeting with China's President Xi on Thursday.

Weather

A system that produced heavy rain across the South this weekend continues with scattered showers in the Southeast for Monday. A stronger front is moving through the Northern Plains with showers of its own. A significant drop in temperature will follow behind it this week.

President Trump Fires Back at Upset U.S. Cattle Producers

President Donald Trump responded to the backlash against his plan to import beef from Argentina to help lower beef prices in U.S. grocery stores. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said cattlemen should be grateful for his tariff policies. “The cattle ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they’re doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put tariffs on cattle coming into the U.S., including a 50 percent tariff on beef from Brazil,” Trump said in his post. A Bloomberg report said the plan has drawn the ire of ranchers, who say it could crush the U.S. beef industry. Experts have also said the plan would do little to lower prices at meat counters across the country. The White House plans to increase the tariff-rate quota for Argentinian beef to 80,000 metric tons, effectively quadrupling the amount exempt from 26.4 percent tariffs. 

USDA Announces Plant for American Ranchers and Consumers

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins and other Cabinet officials announced multiple actions they say will strengthen the American beef industry, reinforcing and prioritizing the American rancher’s critical role in U.S. national security. “Since 2017, the U.S. has lost over 17 percent of cattle ranches, totaling more than 150,000 operations,” Rollins said. “The national herd is at a 75-year low, while consumer demand is up nine percent in the last decade.” Because rebuilding the herd takes time, the USDA will invest in the markets to make them less volatile over the long term for ranchers and make food more affordable for consumers. The plan for protecting and improving ranching includes strengthening the foundation of U.S. cattle production through endangered species reforms, enhanced disaster relief, increased grazing access, increased access to capital, and affordable risk management tools. The agency will also work to grow the domestic herd while boosting domestic and international demand simultaneously.

U.S. Ethanol Exports to Set Record

The Energy Information Administration said the U.S. is heading toward a record amount of ethanol exports in 2025. It’s the second-straight year of growth, driven by growing overseas demand, especially in the EU. This growing market for exports is supporting increased U.S. fuel production, even as domestic demand and consumption stagnate. In the first seven months of this year, American fuel ethanol exports averaged 138,000 barrels a day, the highest January through July data, which goes back to 2010, and nine percent more than 2024’s annual record for fuel ethanol exports. Increased exports to the Netherlands accounted for most of the growth from 2024 to 2025, likely reflecting Europe’s growing demand. Also, India, the U.K., and Canada, which all have blend mandates, continue to import substantial volumes of fuel ethanol. The EIA said growth in fuel exports has pushed domestic production past the pre-COVID peak in 2018, despite lower domestic consumption. 

Clean Fuels Wants Tariff Loophole Closed

Clean Fuels Alliance America wrote to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and asked him to close a loophole in the administration’s Reciprocal Tariff Regime. Under President Trump’s Executive Order, diesel and renewable diesel are both exempted from reciprocal tariffs because both are classified under the same Harmonized Tariff Schedule heading. “This loophole invites duty-free access to the United States for imported renewable diesel, putting U.S. biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel producers, who are essential to America’s energy and farm security, at a competitive disadvantage,” the letter said. “Given the ongoing imports of foreign renewable diesel and current challenges for domestic producers and farmers, we ask that you take prompt action to close the loophole.” Kurt Kovarik, vice president of federal affairs for Clean Fuels, said, “Domestic biomass-based diesel represents ten percent of the value of all U.S.-grown soybeans.” That means U.S. trade policy must consistently support U.S. producers.

Peel: Would Argentinian Beef Imports Make a Big Difference?

Dr. Derrell Peel, a livestock market economist for Oklahoma State University, said that, despite some U.S. beef producers’ dislike of importing beef, imports play an important role in meeting consumer demand. “Once we fabricate those animals, they produce thousands of different products,” Peel told the Radio Oklahoma Network. “However, that mix of products doesn’t always match what beef consumers prefer.” President Trump announced a plan to import beef from Argentina to help lower the price of beef in the U.S. While there has been backlash against the plan, Peel said Argentina’s contribution to U.S. beef is small. “Argentina represented about 2.1 percent of our total beef imports,” he said. “It’s a very minor source of supply.” He also said even if the amount increases, it would represent at most just a minor amount to offset the expected decrease from Brazil due to the current 50 percent tariff on Brazilian imports.

Supplies, Demand Higher for U.S. Lamb

Despite high meat prices and ongoing economic uncertainties, consumer demand for meat, including American lamb, remains robust. Retailers are reporting continued year-over-year growth in both dollar sales and volume, a clear indicator of steady, resilient consumer loyalty. But shoppers are also becoming more budget-conscious, buying less per trip to the store and opting for lower-priced options like ground lamb. That reflects broader shifts in sentiment and spending across the food industry. This year, lamb and yearling slaughter numbers are about 39,000 head, 3.1 percent higher than last year, and above the five-year average from 2019-2023. “Checkoff dollars invested by the American Lamb Board continue to help consumers learn more about preparing American lamb, and we’re seeing steady growth,” said ALB Chair Jeff Ebert. Through July, U.S. lamb imports totaled 174.9 million pounds, down 4.5 percent year-over-year. Mutton imports are notably lower, down almost 50 percent from last year. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

Macro reports for Friday include September Consumer Price Index data which will be published to determine the Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment. This will give investors an update on inflation ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision next week. Meanwhile, trade negotiations between Chinese and U.S. officials will be underway in Malaysia starting Friday, which will be watched closely for updates by grains and oilseed traders.

Weather

A system is moving into the Southern Plains and is producing areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms Friday morning. Showers and storms will continue to develop throughout the day, which may lead to flooding in some areas of Oklahoma and Texas. Severe storms may also be a possibility in parts of Texas throughout the day as well.

FSA Offices Set to Reopen; Trump Administration to Release $3 Billion in Aid to Farmers

The Trump administration will release about $3 billion in assistance to U.S. farmers despite the government shutdown, administration officials told CBS News. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is also planning to resume operations Thursday at the Farm Service Agency, which runs financial assistance and loan programs for farmers, according to a USDA spokesperson. Many of the agency's operations were shuttered due to the government shutdown. President Trump told the department to give out the $3 billion in aid by tapping a fund that was used in his first term to aid farmers, officials said. "President Trump is committed to supporting America's farmers and ranchers and this action will release billions in assistance for farmers that Democrats in Congress have held up for over 20 days," the USDA spokesperson said. Many farmers have faced pressure in recent months as China cuts off soybean purchases amid a trade war with the U.S. 

Despite Challenges, Beef Demand at 40-Year high

For the past year, the drumbeat across cattle country has been lower herd numbers, market fluctuations and rising input costs. Total beef supply tightened by 3% and beef retail prices climbed to an average of $8 per pound. Yet consumer demand for beef surged to a 40-year high. Despite the challenges, Certified Angus Beef (CAB) sales reached 1.235 billion pounds globally, marking it one of the brand’s strongest years in history. “The brand’s success this year is the direct result of the hard work and innovation across our entire beef community,” says John Stika, CAB president. “It’s their intentional efforts to win with Certified Angus Beef year in and year out that have allowed this brand to thrive over 47 years.” This year marks the brand’s third-best year, with a record-setting month in November and the brand’s all-time best sales month in March. April and May followed with strength heading into grilling season, landing in the brand’s top 10 for monthly sales.

API Calls for Balanced E15 Policy Amid Shifting Market Realities

The American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday urged congressional leadership to adopt a more balanced and up-to-date approach to E15 legislation, warning the current proposal no longer reflects today's fuel market realities. In a letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, API President and CEO Mike Sommers said sweeping changes to federal biofuel policy, state volatility mandates, and market conditions have upended the fuels landscape, prompting API to oppose the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025 in its current form. The letter details how recent changes to federal tax rules, EPA decisions, and state-level policy reversals have imposed new costs on refiners and disrupted the fuels marketplace. Sommers urged lawmakers to pursue a holistic and balanced approach to E15 that supports consumer choice while maintaining reliable, affordable fuel supply. 

Congressional Leaders Propose Legislation that Would Harm Hemp Consumable Sales

Major Congressional leaders, including Sen. Mitch McConnell and Rep. Andy Harris, are attempting to insert provisions into must-pass spending legislation that could eliminate the market for hemp-based consumable products in the United States. According to Hemp Industry & Farmers of America (HIFA), the proposed prohibition would directly harm military veterans managing post-traumatic stress, elderly Americans seeking natural pain relief alternatives, and countless individuals who have found legal hemp products to be an effective wellness solution. Hemp industry leaders say they have advocated for a thoughtful, common-sense regulatory framework that ensures product safety and consumer protection. Instead of engaging with these proposals, Congressional leaders are pursuing an approach that would shut down the entire industry signed into law by President Trump in the 2018 Farm Bill. 

'Fix Our Forest' Bill Passed in Senate Committee

A Senate committee easily passed legislation Tuesday to reduce legal and environmental checks on forest thinning and logging aimed at reducing wildfire risks. E&E News reports the 18-5 vote in the Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee was the latest indication that the "Fix Our Forests Act," S. 1462, from Sen. John Curtis, appears to have momentum after similar bills have languished in Congress. The bill would speed forest projects in high-risk "firesheds" identified by the Forest Service. A new board of officials from several federal agencies would advise on the creation of additional firesheds on national forest system land. In the designated areas, projects would face fewer potential legal or environmental hurdles. Categorical exclusions from the National Environmental Policy Act would grow from 3,000 acres to 10,000 acres in some places, and when legal challenges arise, judges would face new limits on imposing temporary or permanent injunctions to block the work. 

World Hereford Conference Comes to Kansas City

More than 700 Hereford breeders from 20 countries have gathered in Kansas City, Missouri for the World Hereford Conference which started Wednesday. "This event, which occurs in conjunction with the annual American Hereford Association (AHA) Annual Meeting and Educational Symposium comes at a time of increasing demand for Hereford genetics," says Jack Ward, AHA executive vice president. "Especially here in the United States, more commercial cow-calf producers are incorporating Hereford genetics into their herds for the breed’s proven inherent genetic advantages, which include fertility, docility, longevity and feed efficiency." The World Hereford Conference takes place every four years when delegates of the World Hereford Council meet to conduct official business aimed at breed improvement and opportunity development. It is a time for Hereford breeders from around the world to network and learn from one another. The event runs through Sunday. 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

No major reports scheduled for Thursday as the government shutdown surpasses the three-week mark. Row crop markets will likely continue to be quiet in nature but also sensitive to trade related headlines.

Weather

A system in the Southern Rockies will be moving into the Southern Plains on Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region, especially Thursday evening and overnight. Some stronger thunderstorms will be possible, as will areas of heavy rain throughout the rest of the week and weekend. Some isolated showers continue across the Great Lakes as well.

Groups React to Beef Imports from Argentina

Groups like the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association have expressed significant concerns about President Donald Trump’s plan to buy beef from Argentina to lower the price of beef for U.S. consumers. “Argentina has a history of Foot and Mouth Disease,” said NCBA CEO Colin Woodall. “Consumer demand remains strong because of the work producers have done to improve the quality and safety of U.S. beef.” Rob Larew, president of the National Farmers Union, said lowering beef prices for consumers starts with restoring fairness in the marketplace. “Plus, the White House bailed out Argentina with $40 billion in taxpayer-backed aid, and Argentina responded by striking new deals to sell soybeans to China.” American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall said adverse weather and low cattle prices drove herd numbers to levels not seen in decades. “Weaker cattle prices are the last thing needed in farm country as farmers consider investing to rebuild their herds,” Duvall said.  

The Global Ethanol Summit Began on Monday

The first day of the Global Ethanol Summit on Monday began with three keynote speakers, a panel, and two flash talks focused on the day’s theme, “Ethanol is Renewable and Available.” U.S. Grains and Biofuels Products Chair Mark Wilson opened the event with an announcement. “We’re excited to announce that we have a new interactive tool that allows users to compare the blending economics and greenhouse gas reduction benefits of ethanol around the world,” Wilson said. “Designed to support policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers alike, it showcases the global impact of bioethanol with real-world data and the U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council’s commitment to advancing sustainable energy solutions through data-driven innovation.” The Summit is an education and trade forum, hosted by the USGBC and supported by Growth Energy, the Renewable Fuels Alliance, and BASF. It’s designed to elevate bioethanol’s international visibility as a viable decarbonization solution for the transportation sector. 

Brazil Begins Planting Another Record Crop

Brazil’s farmers are planting a record number of corn and soybean acres for the 2025-2026 crop season. CONAB, Brazil’s food supply and statistics agency, released its first outlook for the new crop cycle and projects an increase in planted area. The expansion is driven by growing domestic demand for biofuels and strong export performance. A University of Illinois Farmdoc article says, despite the expected acreage growth, gross margins for both crops are likely to decline significantly due to rising production costs and lower prices. CONAB predicts Brazil’s soybean acreage will increase by 3.5 percent to 121 million acres. That would be the largest area on record. Like soybeans, corn acreage is expected to expand, jumping four percent to a total of 56 million acres in the initial estimates. While Brazil gains ground in export markets, margins are getting squeezed by rising input costs, lower prices, and high interest rates. 

California E15 Mandate Good for the U.S.

The National Corn Growers Association is pointing to California as an example of what could be achieved around the country after the state enacted a law extending access to E15 fuels. It’s estimated that if consumers had been able to access E15 in California during 2025, it would have created a demand for close to 250 million additional bushels of corn, which would represent 12 percent of the expected excess corn supply this year. “The sheer buying power of the millions of people on the road in California promises to increase demand for corn in ethanol, which is good news for the nation’s corn growers,” said NCGA President Joe Bower. “Now we want to see Congress act to extend access to year-round E15 to every state in the country.” He added that “Farmers see what’s possible with California’s new law, and it’s time for Congress to follow suit.”

Farmers Risk Losing Billions Without Reallocation

The Environmental Protection Agency is proposing supplemental SRE reallocation volumes to the 2026 and 2027 Renewable Fuel Standard Volumes. Clean Fuels America shared the potential impact on U.S. soybean farmers and processors with EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin. EPA is co-proposing to either fully (100 percent) or partially (50 percent) account for 2023-2025 small refinery exemptions granted this year by adding a supplemental volume in 2026 and 2027. “U.S. soybean farmers and processors could lose between $3.2 billion and $7.5 billion in crop value over the next two years if the EPA doesn’t completely reallocate recently exempted RFS volumes,” said Clean Fuels in a letter to Zeldin. “Facing Chinese tariffs and growing global competition from Argentina and Brazil, America’s farmers can’t afford to lose the value that U.S. biomass-based diesel brings.” A 50 percent reallocation will include 490 million gallons lost in biomass-based diesel production and $1.4 billion in lost farm revenue. 

Farmers Union Issues Action Alert

There is a crisis in U.S. farm country. Family farmers are facing severe economic and financial challenges, with each passing day becoming increasingly dire. Recently enacted trade policies, along with the corresponding reaction by other countries, have wreaked havoc on our commodity markets. And the consequences for U.S. family farmers and rural America are getting increasingly dire. Crop prices are plummeting far below the cost of production. Input costs are projected to reach record levels in 2025. Plus, t t6jkkkijhe number of farm bankruptcies is rapidly rising. Family farmers are on the brink of collapse and cannot wait any longer. They need immediate economic assistance to weather this storm of uncertainty and chaos. Without intervention, many family farms and operations are at risk. The Farmers Union urges its members and non-members to tell Congress and President Trump that family farmers need immediate economic assistance and long-term reforms that restore fairness in U.S. agriculture.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

On Wednesday morning the Energy Information Administration will release its weekly Petroleum Status Report, which will include last week's average ethanol production across the U.S., giving traders a glimpse into domestic corn demand after a strong showing from export inspections earlier this week. Meanwhile, the government shutdown officially hits the three week mark on Wednesday, and traders will have to continue to rely on indicators such as market spreads and basis for insights into the underlying supply and demand situation for U.S. grains.

Weather

A system has moved into eastern Canada but is still producing some scattered showers and breezy winds across the Great Lakes for Wednesday. Another system is moving through the Southwest and will target the Southern Plains starting on Thursday.

U.S. to Buy Argentinian Beef?

A weekend report from the Associated Press said the U.S. may purchase Argentinian beef in an attempt to bring down the price of beef at U.S. grocery stores. “We would buy some beef from Argentina,” President Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One during a flight from Florida to Washington. “If we do that, it will bring our beef prices down.” The AP said the move comes after the president promised to address the issue as a part of his efforts to keep inflation in check, noting that U.S. beef prices have been “stubbornly high” for a number of reasons, including drought and reduced imports from Mexico due to the New World Screwworm. Bloomberg said Trump didn’t initially provide details on what his “deal” to bring down beef prices entailed, but noted that beef was one area where his efforts to fight inflation hadn’t paid enough dividends for consumers. 

Efforts to Diffuse a U.S. Tariff Hike

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he’ll be meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week to try to fend off an escalation of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods that President Donald Trump said is unsustainable. Bessent and He spoke on the phone late last week and engaged in what the Secretary called “frank and detailed discussions regarding U.S. and China trade.” He said on Friday that the two will meet in person this week to continue those discussions. The two hammered out a temporary tariff truce that will expire on November 10. President Donald Trump threatened an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese imports after Beijing threatened to limit rare Earth exports. Asked if such a high tariff was sustainable and what it might do to the U.S. economy, Trump replied that,”It’s not sustainable, but that’s what the number is, because they forced me to do that.”  

Weekly Phosphate, Potash Prices Fall

A new report from Mizhuo investment bank  (mih-ZOO-hoe) said potash and phosphate fell last week, while nitrogen was mostly unchanged. The price of potash in New Orleans fell about 1.5 percent to $328 per ton, while Midwest costs declined 0.7 percent to $373 a ton. The report said phosphate prices dropped 0.3 percent to $851 a ton. “Phosphate affordability is at its lowest level since 2008, and continues to raise concerns about demand referral and destruction,” Mizuho said. Nitrogen prices were mostly unchanged last week at about $376 a ton in New Orleans and $435 per ton in the Midwest. “Supply disruptions and delays in capacities coming online have led to higher ammonia prices, with the benchmark Tampa price recently settled up $40 in October following a $53-per-metric-ton increase in September,” Mizuho said in its report. Despite some volatility and recent declines, overall fertilizer prices are still considered high compared to long-term averages. 

Farm Journal Survey says Corn Yields are Decreasing

The government shutdown and resulting absence of USDA data has left a big void in the volatile grain and oilseed markets. In order to fill the gap, Farm Journal conducted a survey to get an update on yields and harvest progress as well as other topics on the minds of producers. The biggest takeaway is that U.S. corn yields are estimated to be lower compared with USDA’s September estimates in six of the seven Pro Farmer Crop Tour states. Due to disease pressure and dry weather, the 2025 national yield could be lower than the 2024 average of 179.3 bushels. As of mid-October, yields are steady to lower for 74 percent of the respondents from the Crop Tour states. That’s a long way from the higher production for each state’s estimate in USDA’s September Crop Production Report. The biggest decline appears to be in Illinois, down seven percent from September. 

Optimism for the Ethanol Industry

The U.S. Grains and Global Bioproducts Council is holding its annual Global Ethanol Summit in Washington, D.C.. At the summit, Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor expressed optimism for the future of bioethanol, while highlighting the positive impact that pro-bioethanol policies have on agriculture. “Bioethanol’s future has never been clearer, and our outlook has never been more positive,” Skor said. “We deliver a more affordable, high-octane fuel choice that can be  used in more than a billion gas-powered cars and trucks on roads around the globe today.” All over the world, she added, from Canada to Brazil to Japan, countries are increasing their commitments to use more bioethanol at higher blends. Skor also noted bioethanol’s advantages as a tool for other countries to enhance their trade relationship with the U.S. Skor said that when America invests in bioethanol, the country is investing in the rural economy, supporting farmers, and boosting GDP. 

The Farmer's Share of Halloween Treats is Getting Smaller

Americans are forecast to spend $3.9 billion on candy this Halloween, according to the National Retail Federation. That’s up from $3.6 billion last year and $3.1 billion in 2023. The American Sugar Alliance said the retail price of the items they surveyed increased an average of 19 percent. But the cost of sugar in each item increased an average of 33 percent. The cost of planting, cultivating, harvesting, and processing the sugarbeets and sugarcane that become the real sugar in your favorite Halloween treats has skyrocketed, and the prices American sugar producers receive for their sugar has decreased. For example, a ten-ounce bag of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups cost $5.49 last year, with the farmer’s share at 21 cents. This year, the cost is $6.49, and the farmer's share is down to 13 cents. In two years, the prices of beet sugar and cane sugar have fallen 42 and 24 percent, respectively. 

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

No major reports are scheduled for release on Tuesday. The soybean complex will remain very sensitive to China and trade related headlines, while corn and soybean futures have rallied back towards ranges which have been resistant to prices, and former resistance levels surpassed in recent sessions will likely be retested for support in the coming days.

Weather

A system is migrating into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Some showers are found on the leading edge as it moves into the eastern Lakes early Tuesday morning. The storm spinning in area should create more showers in the region throughout the day. Strong winds have also developed in the North-Central states as well.

Thune Urges Trump to Open Up Farm Loans

The top Senate Republican is privately warning the White House that American farmers — a key GOP constituency — will continue to suffer if the Trump administration doesn’t reopen the flow of certain farm loans amid the government shutdown. Senate Majority Leader John Thune is quietly pressing the administration officials to let farmers continue to access Marketing Assistance Loans, which allow them to meet cash flow needs during harvest season and as they make planting decisions for next year, according to four people with direct knowledge of the conversations, including two Trump officials. Politico reports that would also require USDA to reopen thousands of shuttered county Farm Service Agency offices across the country in order to facilitate those loans. So far, administration officials say they have no plans to shift other money around for the agriculture loans like they’ve done with troop pay and other priorities. “We’re working that issue, and I hope to get an answer soon,” Thune said in a brief interview Thursday. 

Proposed Visa Changes Could Cut Farm Labor Costs

Farmers across the Southeast could see major changes to labor costs under a new proposal from the Trump Administration that aims to revise the H-2A visa program for agricultural workers. The proposed rule would update how workers are classified and lower the “Adverse Effect Wage Rate,” or AEWR — the minimum hourly rate employers must pay H-2A workers. In Georgia alone, more than 37,000 farm jobs are filled through the H-2A program each year, and producers say labor expenses have climbed more than 30 percent since 2022. Under the proposed changes, Georgia’s top AEWR would be capped at $16.22 an hour, with an adjustment that effectively lowers the rate to about $14.47 starting in 2026. This information comes from the office of Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper, who called the proposal “a huge win for Georgia’s number-one industry.” Harper says the changes could be “the deciding factor that allows them to produce a crop this year when they otherwise may not have.”

Agronomists Share Corn Harvest Insights Amid USDA Reporting Pause

The federal government shutdown has continued, resulting in another week without the USDA publishing a Crop Progress report. According to a Reuters poll of 10 analysts, the U.S. corn harvesting progress lagged behind last year’s pace. On average, the analysts estimated that 44% of the U.S. corn crop had been harvested as of Sunday, with estimates ranging from 35% to 55% for corn. Here’s a closer look at the corn crop progress in Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska through the perspective of local agronomists. In Iowa, Eric Wilson, Wyffels agronomy manager, shared that corn harvest is moving quickly, with some farmers in his area nearing the end of corn harvest. Phil Krieg, agronomy service representative for Syngenta Crop Protection in Illinois, shared that corn harvest is 60% complete. Travis Gustafson, agronomic service representative for Syngenta Crop Protection in Nebraska, estimated that 10–15% of corn has been harvested.

Kansas Health, Agriculture Officials Warn About Presence of Invasive Asian Longhorned Tick

Kansas officials issued a public notice after testing confirmed the invasive Asian longhorned tick was identified in Franklin County and posed an emerging threat to animal and human health. Successful Farming reports this was the first known detection in Kansas of the prolific tick, which afflicts wildlife, pets, and livestock. The tick is a hazard for cattle as it infects red and white blood cells and causes weakness, fever, loss of appetite, and even death. The reddish-brown tick is known to carry a variety of pathogens and has proven efficient at establishing populations in new areas due to its ability to reproduce without mating. In Asia, the tick has transmitted a virus causing human hemorrhagic fever. “Right now, our concern is mainly for cattle,” said Gregg Hanzlicek, a Kansas State University professor.  “But like any tick, people should take precautions: wear long sleeves, use insect repellent, and check for ticks after being in grassy or wooded areas.”

JBS Breaks Ground on Sausage Plant in Perry, Iowa

JBS USA broke ground Tuesday on its “state of the art” sausage making facility and celebrated with city and state leaders a “turning point” for the community. The roughly 110-acre site on the southeast side of Perry is slated to be operational a year from now and officials said the plant would add a second shift about six months later, to hit the full 500-job metric. JBS announced plans for the plant in May and was awarded a $12 million tax benefit from the Iowa Economic Development Authority board because nearly 60 jobs at the facility will offer salaries of $30 or higher per hour. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig welcomed JBS to the site and said the plant would add “tremendous value” to Iowa’s pork industry. He said the value-added products made at the facility are part of Iowa’s story of “long-term strength” in the agriculture industry. 

Lee Working to Move Forest Service from USDA to Interior

Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Mike Lee is resurrecting an old idea to shake up the Forest Service: Get the agency out of the Department of Agriculture. The Utah Republican is working on legislation to move the Forest Service to the Interior Department, where its mission historically sat until President Theodore Roosevelt oversaw a switch to the USDA in 1905. Lee’s office didn’t return messages seeking comment on the draft, which POLITICO’s E&E News obtained from an outside organization. The draft includes other Lee priorities, such as making the forest chief’s position a political appointment subject to Senate confirmation for the first time. The draft legislation, called the "Forest Service Reorganization Act of 2025," would also create the separate wildland fire agency Lee’s promoted for the Interior Department, and it would waive overtime pay caps for wildland firefighters. In an executive order released in June, President Donald Trump stopped short of calling for a separate wildland fire agency, seemingly leaving the matter to Congress.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Reports for Monday include grain export inspections at 10 a.m. CDT, which will offer traders a glimpse into the export books for corn, soybeans, and wheat. The government shutdown approaches its third week, so most planned economic and agricultural reports will be delayed/canceled. Traders will continue to follow the rhetoric behind the U.S.-China trade war, following a weekend agreement to hold more negotiations this coming week.

Weather

A system will move across the North-Central U.S. on Monday, bringing some areas of showers. More noticeable will be the strong winds surrounding the system and a drop in temperature behind it.

Will Interest Rate Cuts Continue?

Economic analysts like CoBank say recent economic data has generally been more positive in nature, tempering expectations for significant interest rate cuts before the end of the year. A new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange said the most likely scenario is an additional four or five cuts of 25 basis points through 2026, leaving the overnight rate around three percent by the end of next year. Tariff policy uncertainty, the sharp drop in immigration, and a massive surge in AI investments have made interpreting traditional economic reports more difficult. The CoBank report suggests sharp swings in monthly import volumes, a flatter working-age population growth, and a soaring stock market make it more difficult to gauge how “Main Street” America is doing economically. “The intense politicization of attitudes has rendered longstanding public sentiment surveys erratic and unhelpful in gauging actual economic conditions,” said Rob Fox, vice president of the Knowledge Exchange.

Kansas City Fed Launches Center for Agriculture and the Economy

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City launched the Center for Agriculture and the Economy. This initiative underscores the Bank’s ongoing commitment to including perspectives from agriculture and rural areas in discussions on the national economy. “For many years, the Kansas City Fed has provided critical insights into one of the nation’s most vital industries, which is agriculture,” said Jeff Schmid, president and CEO of the Kansas City Fed. “The establishment of the Center formally recognizes our District’s investment in the area and highlights the vital importance that we place on gathering insights from all of those who have a role in the ag economy.” The new Center will serve as a resource within the Federal Reserve System by providing timely analysis of industry developments and conducting ongoing research on the agricultural economy and the rural regions where production predominates. Production agriculture is central to the Tenth District’s overall economy. 

China Holding Off on Brazil Soybean Purchases

High premiums on Brazilian cargoes are discouraging soybean buyers in China, which means the country has yet to secure much of its needed soybean supply for December and January. Reuters says the development could prompt the Chinese government to tap state reserves to meet the near-term needs. China covered its needs through November with hefty buys from Argentina in recent weeks, but still needs eight to nine million metric tons for December and January. Escalating Washington-Beijing trade tensions continue to shut American soybeans from the market. “China isn’t buying U.S. beans because of the trade war, and Brazilian beans have become too expensive,” one oilseed trader at an international trading company that supplies agricultural products to China told Reuters anonymously. “China might end up using its own reserves for its year-end needs and into early next year, and will wait until the new South American harvest comes in.” 

USDA Pushes Back Against Texas Ag Commissioner

The USDA is pushing back against Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller. During a conversation with RFD-TV, a USDA spokesperson said Miller is proposing “ineffective solutions” in the fight against the New World Screwworm. In an exclusive statement to RFD-TV, the agency defended its $750 million plan to build a sterile fly production facility at the southern border, calling it the “most aggressive response in U.S. history.” The USDA also accused Miller of disregarding proven methods for cheap publicity. “USDA, in conjunction with the entire federal government, has launched the most aggressive plan to combat the New World Screwworm in our country’s history, including committing up to $750 million to build a sterile fly production facility near the Southern Border at Moore Air Force Base,” the spokesman said. “Commissioner Miller is blatantly disregarding tried and true strategies in favor of clickbait publicity stunts instead of working with us to find real solutions.”   

FBN Report Shows Crop Protection Price Trends and Forecasts

The Farmers Business Network issued its annual crop protection market report, highlighting its outlook for pricing and supply trends. “There’s a lot of uncertainty going into 2026, and you can contrast that to 2025, where tariffs were mostly known going into spring,” said John Appel, FBN vice president of category management. “2026 is going to be structurally very different.” He also said that at certain points in 2025, product prices were at multi-year lows, so there was no more room to go down. He said now that the channel is largely depleted, “We know that, structurally, these tariffs are going to come into place from a cost perspective.” FBN anticipates the pricing for glyphosate and glufosinate coming from China rising because of a 20 percent tariff. “Others like 2,4-D, you have significant duties on products like that, and on top of that, countervailing and anti-dumping duties could be up to 170 percent,” he added. 

Making Farming Accessible for Future Generations

Farm Foundation, in partnership with The Mosaic Company for Sustainable Food Systems and the PepsiCo Foundation, announced the launch of FarmPath. It’s a national program designed to create more resilient, diversified, and innovative farming communities to strengthen rural economies, support food security, and promote a flourishing future for American agriculture. FarmPath will equip the next generation by increasing the success rate of beginning farmers by taking a number of steps, including equipping them with mentorship, planning tools, and practical pathways to accomplish their goals. It will also set new farmers up with mentors and experts to help them preserve and practice critical skills. FarmPath will build a supportive community with a cohort-based approach grounded in shared experiences and mutual support, as well as scaling sustainable practices and natural resources use through hands-on and virtual training. “FarmPath is about opening doors and sharing wisdom,” said Shari Rogge-Fidler, president of Farm Foundation. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

As October passes the halfway point with no conclusion yet to the government shutdown, there are no economic reports scheduled for release on Friday. Traders will continue to watch for China related news, while corn and soybean markets will be up against chart resistance to close the week.

Weather

A system in the Northern Plains is moving into central Canada on Friday. Some showers will occur across the Central U.S. throughout the day, including along the cold front, which is moving southward through the Plains. The front will be a larger focus of showers and thunderstorms for the weekend.

Farmers Union Asking for Relief for Family Farms and Ranches

The National Farmers Union recently sent letters to President Trump and Congressional leaders urging immediate action to provide economic relief to family farmers and ranchers facing deteriorating economic conditions. NFU emphasized that aid should reach the family farm operations that need it most. The group also asked for parallel efforts to rebuild fair markets and curb corporate consolidation in agriculture. “Family farmers and ranchers face severe economic challenges and a deepening crisis if they don’t receive assistance,” said NFU President Rob Larew. Larew emphasized that aid payments must be directed to family agricultural operations and balanced among regions and crops. The payments must be paired with efforts to investigate monopolies in the agriculture industry and their resulting impacts on the farm economy. Resources must also be dedicated to developing new and enhanced domestic markets for American crops while enhancing existing markets, including markets at the local and regional level.

Applications Open for NCBA Stewardship Awards

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association is accepting nominations for the 2026 Environmental Stewardship Awards. Established in 1991, the Environmental Stewardship Award Program recognizes outstanding stewardship practices and conservation achievements of cattle producers across the country. “Since its inception 35 years ago, this prestigious program has recognized 235 cattle operations for their stewardship efforts,” said NCBA President Buck Wehrbein (WHERE-byne). “We look forward to finding the next deserving stewards and sharing their stories.” Any individual, group, or organization is eligible to nominate one individual or business raising or feeding cattle. While individuals may not nominate themselves, they should be involved in the preparation of the application. Along with a typed application, one nomination letter, and three letters of recommendation highlighting the nominee’s leadership in conservation are required. Nominees don’t have to be NCBA members, but should support the organization’s objectives. For more information or to download the nomination packet, go to environmentalstewardship.org. 

Trump Threatens to End Chinese Cooking Oil Purchases

President Donald Trump injected fresh tensions into the relationship between China and the U.S. by stating that he might stop trade in cooking oil with the Southeast Asian nation. Bloomberg said the U.S. President described the potential move as retaliation against China for its refusal to buy American soybeans, calling it an “economically hostile act” that’s purposefully causing U.S. soybean farmers great difficulty. Trump said the U.S. is considering terminating Chinese cooking oil imports because America can easily produce cooking oil itself. “We don’t need to purchase it from China,” Trump posted on social media. The comments came after the President and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer expressed confidence that friction would ease. Reuters said that the U.S. was the top market for Chinese cooking oil, importing a record 1.27 million metric tons in 2024, worth approximately $1.1 billion. U.S. imports plunged this year, totaling 290,700 tons from January through August. 

Agriculture Safeguards and Security Act Reintroduced in Congress

Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Rick Crawford (R-AR) have reintroduced the Promoting Agriculture Safeguards and Security Act that will protect U.S. national security by prohibiting foreign adversaries from purchasing or controlling American agricultural land and businesses. “Food security is national security, and I’m proud to reintroduce this legislation that will stand up against our foreign adversaries as they attempt to control our agriculture industry,” Stefanik said. “The U.S. cannot allow ownership bids of assets by communist China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea to undermine the efforts of our farmers, who work hard to feed and fuel our communities.” The PASS Act will ensure that the USDA is involved in reviewing foreign acquisitions of American agricultural land and businesses, and blacklists America’s foreign adversaries from controlling U.S. agricultural land. “U.S. agriculture is a critical industry with real and significant impacts on our national security,” Representative Crawford added.  

FFA Members Selected to Serve as #SpeakAgPioneers

A group of 13 FFA members has been selected to serve as young leaders for agriculture through the National FFA #SpeakAg Pioneers program. The 2025-2026 cohort of #SpeakAg Pioneers will promote agricultural advocacy and literacy to other members and the public by hosting workshops and creating content for social media. The #SpeakAg Pioneers will attend the upcoming 98th National FFA Convention and Expo in Indianapolis from October 29 through November 1. They will also participate in other local and national events to interact with policymakers and advocate for agriculture on behalf of more than one million FFA members in all 50 states, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. “Teaching students communications and advocacy through agricultural education empowers them to share their stories, champion their communities, and speak up for the future of agriculture,” said Celya (SEEL-ya) Glowacki (glo-WACK-ee) with the National FFA. “The skills help them prepare to make an impact.”  

Over $600,000 Awarded to Rural Emergency Responders

Emergency response departments are a vital part of life in rural America when there are problems. Departments from Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin received over $600,000 to fund much-needed equipment and technology upgrades. Through its Fund for Rural America, Compeer Financial awarded 160 Emergency Response Equipment Grants to help volunteer fire, rescue, and ambulance departments improve their operational efficiency, safety, and response times. Rural volunteer emergency response departments are struggling with multiple challenges while serving their communities due to fewer volunteer first responders, outdated personal protective equipment, increases in service requests, and rising costs for essential equipment. “For first responders to give their best, they need to be equipped with the proper tools,” said Karen Schieler, manager of giving at Compeer Financial. “We recognize the challenges volunteer emergency response departments face with funding, and we hope these grants help them continue to take care of critical situations in rural America.” 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Reports for Thursday include the weekly Petroleum Status Report from the Energy Information Administration at 9:30 a.m. CDT, which will include last week's average ethanol production. Ag traders will be watching for the latest on the U.S.-China trade war, as well as updates from the fields as U.S. harvest races ahead, likely past the halfway point nationally.

Weather

A system moving into the Northern Plains is producing areas of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop through the Upper Midwest throughout the day as well as in the central High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.

Shutdown Hitting Crucial Tools for Farmers

The government shutdown is hitting the nation’s farmers and ranchers in multiple ways. Politico points out that the shutdown is stalling the delivery of farm loans, the release of critical market reports, and the administration’s plan for emergency assistance for farmers. Row-crop producers who grow corn, wheat, and soybeans have been weathering uncertainty for months, including tariff troubles and high input costs for things like machinery and fertilizer. Politico said every day the government isn’t open adds to the anxiety in farm country, especially as growers are harvesting crops and having to pay bills and their banks. The risks of farm bankruptcies continue to climb this year. A New York Times report said the shutdown is interfering with planning for next year as farmers have to make decisions about what’s ahead in 2026. Those plans depend on information only the federal government can provide, including market data and available loans. 

Study Shows Ag Exports Faltering

The U.S. has traditionally had a healthy agricultural trade surplus for years. As global dynamics change due to multiple political and economic factors, U.S. agricultural imports now exceed exports. A new study says the deficit is likely to get worse in the years ahead. University of Illinois and Texas Tech University researchers say the U.S. is importing much more than it exports. From 2017 to 2018, the dispute between the U.S. and China resulted in export values dropping by $9 billion (73 percent) for soybeans, $431.7 million (67 percent) for wheat, $92.6 million (61 percent) for corn, and $312.5 million (37 percent) for sorghum. The total value of lost agricultural exports amounted to approximately $14 billion. At the same time, the U.S. is losing export markets to other large grain producers like Brazil, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine. The only good news is that the U.S. is actively working on new trade agreements. 

FFA Receives a $10 Million Grant

The National FFA Organization is one of six national organizations to receive a $10 million grant from Lily Endowment, Inc. The grants are being awarded through the latest round of Lily Endowment’s initiative, called the “Character Through Youth Programs,” which helps youth-serving organizations with a nationwide reach create, test, implement, and sustain strategies that support character development in young people ages five to 18. “The organizations like National FFA have a long history of supporting young people and helping them grow into healthy, resilient adults,” said Ted Maple, Lily Endowment’s vice president for education and youth programs. “With their distinctive missions and programs, they are embarking on new creative and strategic approaches to support youth-serving organizations through the first round of the initiative.” Ambra Tennery, director of education programs in the programs and events division for the National FFA Organization, said, “We are honored to receive this support from Lily Endowment.”

China Soybean Imports Surge

Chinese soybean imports jumped year over year in September as total purchases of all products surged. Bank of America Global Research said in a note to clients that soybean imports by volume jumped more than 13 percent last month versus 1.2 percent in August. Imports from Brazil were up 24 percent in September, which compares with a 1.4 percent year-over-year decline in August. However, purchases from the U.S. were down more than 16 percent on an annual basis, in line with the previous month’s decline. Total imports into China jumped 7.4 percent on an annual basis, a surprise to market-watchers. The trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed from $102.3 billion to $90.5 billion. “Despite concerns of an imminent sharp slowdown in external demand, the data from China highlighted continued resilience in exports, supported by the ongoing tech cycle and stable demand outside the U.S.,” said analysts from Bank of America.

U.S. and China Roll Out Competing Port Fees

The U.S. and China have begun charging competing port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil. Reuters said the new fees will make the high seas a key front in the continuing trade war between the world’s biggest economies. China has started collecting the levies on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels, but clarified that Chinese-built ships are exempt from the same levies. The China-imposed extra port fees will be collected at the first port of entry on a single voyage or the first five voyages within a year. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump announced plans to levy fees on China-linked ships to loosen the country’s grip on the global maritime industry and boost U.S. shipbuilding. Yahoo said an investigation during former President Joe Biden’s administration found that China uses unfair trade policies and practices to dominate the global maritime, logistics, and building sectors. 

Fertilizer Industry Celebrates Global Fertilizer Day

The Fertilizer Institute celebrated Global Fertilizer Day on Monday, an annual event recognized around the world by the fertilizer industry in an effort to educate people about the importance of the fertilizer industry. The day highlights the industry’s contributions to feeding both the global population and the global economy, and helps encourage students to explore the many fulfilling career paths available to them within the industry. “We’re extremely proud of the fertilizer industry’s global role and believe we are lucky to be able to not only feed the world by putting food on people’s tables, but to feed economies by providing important and fulfilling careers and working to tirelessly innovate to be good environmental stewards,” said TFI President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch. “We feed the world sustainably and safely.” This year’s celebration featured a record-setting year for student engagement, with 200 “Fertilizer Fun Boxes” provided to classrooms across the country. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

For Wednesday, reports include the release of NOPA soybean crush data for September at 11 a.m. CDT, which may serve as a refreshing shift of market focus from the struggling export pace for soybeans to what is expected to be record domestic demand through 2025-26. Traders will also be tuned in for the latest developments in the U.S.-China trade war after President Trump made comments Tuesday that he may move to terminate cooking oil trade with China in retaliation to their boycott of U.S. soybeans.

Weather

A pair of systems are moving through the country on Wednesday. The front one is dying as showers go through the Great Lakes Wednesday morning. A bigger system in the West will continue showers there and in between we should see some isolated shower development as well. Those showers will expand Wednesday night as the western system moves into the Plains for Thursday.

New 100 Percent Tariff on China by November?

The Chinese government announced it would curb critical mineral exports to countries like the United States, sparking an immediate response from the White House. President Donald Trump threatened to up the ante in the trade war with promises to sharply hike tariffs in response to the Chinese government’s mineral export plan. Reuters said Trump promised additional duties of 100 percent on China’s U.S.-bound exports, along with new export controls on any and all critical software by November 1. That’s a mere nine days before the existing tariff relief will expire. President Trump also appeared to question the possibility of keeping a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a couple of weeks. “I haven’t canceled it,” Trump told reporters. “I would assume we might have it, but Beijing has never confirmed the meeting.” The American Soybean Association expressed significant concerns that no meeting would push back a possible trade agreement. 

New Research Shows Benefits of Expanded Ethanol Access

If Congress passed legislation that allowed for year-round, nationwide access to E15 fuel, corn use in ethanol could increase by 50 percent at full implementation, supporting a higher market price for corn. New analysis from the National Corn Growers Association says it would also promote energy stability for Americans. ”Congress could address the economic crisis affecting corn growers by passing legislation that would make higher blends of ethanol readily accessible to all Americans,” said NCGA President Jed Bower. “We urge Congress to act now to make that happen.” The NCGA has spent months calling on Congress to pass the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025, which would eliminate an outdated regulation that prevents the sale of fuel with 15 percent ethanol blends, referred to as E15. The organization has highlighted research showing that year-round access to E15 helps farmers and rural communities while boosting energy security. 

U.S. Combine Sales Down 40 Percent

The Association of Equipment Manufacturers’ monthly Flash Report said the sales of all tractors during September 2025, in the U.S., were up four percent from the same month last year. In September, dealers sold a total of 17,729 tractors, which compares to 17,033 sold in September 2024. For the month, two-wheel drive smaller tractors under 40 horsepower sales were up three percent from last year, while those 40 and under 100 horsepower were up 17 percent. That was offset by a sharp drop in the sales of larger tractor models. Combine sales in September totaled 414, which was down 22 percent from the same time last year. For the year, tractor sales are down eight percent. One-hundred-plus-horsepower tractor sales are down 25 percent, while sales of four-wheel-drive tractors are down 39 percent. For the year, combine sales totaled 2,668 through September, which is 40 percent below the same time last year.

Wheat Growers Meet Lawmakers at a Critical Time

National Sorghum Producers brought their grower-leaders to Washington, D.C., at one of the most critical moments in recent memory. From South Texas to South Dakota, members took time away from harvest to make sure lawmakers understand what sorghum growers are facing right now: stalled trade, elevated input costs, and the urgency for biofuel policy and farm aid. Even with the federal government shut down, NSP’s fly-in schedule was full. The message was a straightforward one: trade access is make-or-break for sorghum right now, and growers need near-term relief while fair trade deals are negotiated. Leaders say they pressed for concrete avenues to move sorghum, such as China, India, Vietnam, and Mexico, and reminded every office that sorghum has been hit hard by the current lack of purchases from China. They also urged durable year-round E15 access and clear signals that keep plants running and the basis supported across the Sorghum Belt.  

Farmland Market Didn’t Find Direction in Q3

The farmland market continued its year-long search for direction in the third quarter. The economists at Agricultural Economic Insights say that, depending on the survey and the time frame, farmland prices moved slightly up, down a bit, or stayed flat. This is evidence of a market that is plateauing and trying to find reasons for prices to go either up or down. The factors influencing the land market continued to be in flux, with more questions than answers at this juncture. Activity in the farmland market during the fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026 will depend on buyers’ and sellers’ views of the ever-changing factors. The supply of farmland for sale and the level of demand to buy it will continue to be a big influencing factor in the land market. One of the biggest unknowns is the geopolitical factor, including tariffs, trade negotiations, and U.S. grain and livestock exports.