U.S. Trade Partners Quick to Criticize Trump’s Tariff Declaration

Officials in China, Mexico and Canada criticized Tuesday a pledge made by President-elect Donald Trump on social media to impose new tariffs on all three of the United States' largest trading partners on the first day of his presidency. Trump said the move, which appears to violate the terms of a free-trade deal Trump signed into law in 2020, is aimed at clamping down on drugs − fentanyl especially − and migrants crossing into the U.S. illegally. A tariff is effectively a tax imposed by one country on the goods and services imported from another country. Oil is the top U.S. import from Canada. The largest category of goods imported to the U.S. from Mexico is cars and components for cars. The U.S. imports a significant amount of electronics from China. Some goods are exempt from tariffs because of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

U.S. Halts Mexico Cattle Imports after New World Screwworm Detected

The United States has paused imports of cattle from Mexico after a positive detection of New World screwworm, a flesh-eating pest that can be fatal to animals and in some cases humans. Authorities identified an infected cow at a livestock inspection checkpoint close to the border of Guatemala. Given the northward movement of screwworm, USDA said it is “restricting the importation of animal commodities,” including live cattle and bison, that originated or were transported through Mexico, effective immediately. The suspension of Mexican cattle could affect U.S. beef production and prices. The pest, which gets its name from the way it burrows into wounds like a screw, last appeared in Florida in 2016 and marked the first U.S. outbreak in decades. The U.S. has relied on live cattle imports from Canada and Mexico to fill in the gaps from years of herd declines.

Soy Transportation Coalition Elects Officers During Annual Meeting

The Soy Transportation Coalition (STC) elected its officers during the organization’s annual meeting in Mobile, Alabama, on November 21, 2024. During the annual meeting, Mike Koehne of Greensburg, Indiana, was elected chairman. Koehne previously served as the STC secretary-treasurer from 2023-2024. He and his wife, Jill, have four children. Koehne also currently serves on the board of the Indiana Soybean Alliance, the American Soybean Association, and the U.S. Soybean Export Council. Raylen Phelon, a soybean, corn, wheat, cattle, and hay farmer from Melvern, Kansas, was elected vice chairman. Phelon and his wife, Karen, have three children. Phelon also serves as vice chairman on the Kansas Soybean Commission. C.J. Chalfant, a soybean and corn farmer from Hartford City, Indiana, was elected secretary-treasurer. He and his wife, Abbey, have two children. Chalfant also serves as a director on the Indiana Soybean Alliance.

Pork Exports to Dominican Republic Surging

U.S. pork exports to the Dominican Republic could reach a record high as African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks continue across the country. Researchers are expecting “increased export opportunities” for U.S. pork and pork products to the Caribbean nation, according to USDA, with local production declining as a result of increased disease outbreaks. While U.S. pork exports to the Dominican Republic are set to hit another record in 2024 after reaching 96,010 metric tons last year, increased competition from Brazil could influence how much the country imports moving forward. With local pork production in the Dominican Republic declining, imports have reached record levels since 2021. Pork imports totaled 101,324 metric tons last year compared to 40,084 in 2020. The U.S. is the Dominican Republic’s largest supplier of pork, averaging about 94% of the country’s pork imports. ASF, which is highly contagious and deadly to pigs, remains a significant challenge in the Dominican Republic since it was first detected in July 2021.

New Products Push Deere to Strong Q4 Earnings

Deere & Co. finished the year stronger than expected after aggressively cutting production and seeing solid demand for new tractors and precision agriculture technology. The Moline, Illinois-based tractor giant reported a net profit of $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter compared to $2.4 billion last year as farmers grappled with high interest rates and low commodity prices. Sales and revenue totaled $11.1 billion, down 28% from a year ago. Despite economic challenges, Deere Chairman and CEO John May said in an earnings call that company performance was better than expected, which led to strong reinvestment across the enterprise. Josh Beal, Deere’s director of investor relations, said in the call that order books are full for the company’s new high-horsepower 9RX tractor through the fourth quarter of 2025. The company also noted “record adoption” of its technology stack, including hardware, software, data platforms and applications. Executives are bracing for another tough year in terms of demand.

Bird Flu Found in California Raw Milk

A California raw milk farm has issued a recall after state health officials detected bird flu in retail samples. The California Department of Public Health has instructed consumers to avoid consuming a single batch of cream top, whole raw milk produced by Raw Farm, LLC. While no illnesses have been reported, retailers have been instructed to pull affected products from their shelves. “Public health experts have long warned consumers against consuming raw milk or raw milk products due to elevated risks of foodborne illness,” California health officials said in a press release. “Raw milk products are not pasteurized, a heating process that kills bacteria and viruses such as bird flu.” In 2023, Raw Farm was linked to a salmonella outbreak that sickened more than 165 people. The U.S. has reported 55 human cases of bird flu since the virus jumped to dairy cows earlier this year. California has reported 29 confirmed human cases of bird flu, the most of any state.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

3rd quarter GDP first revision at 7:30 a.m. CST

Personal Consumption Expenditures at 8 a.m. CST

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status including ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CST

Weather

A storm system is moving out into the Southern Plains early Wednesday morning and will quickly move east-northeast through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. Scattered showers are forecast around the system and could be a mix of rain and snow on the northern edge of the storm across the Ohio Valley. Cold air will spread south behind the system tonight and may cause some light snow showers as well.

Trump Picks Nominee for Secretary of Agriculture

President-elect Donald Trump chose Brooke Rollins as his nominee for the next Secretary of Agriculture. Rollins is a graduate of Texas A&M University, earning a Bachelor of Science degree in agriculture development. She grew up in the small agriculture-centered town of Glen Rose, Texas, while spending years in leadership involvement with FFA and 4-H. “Her commitment to support the American farmer, defense of American food self-sufficiency, and the restoration of agriculture-dependent small towns in America is second to none,” the President-elect said. “As the next Secretary of Agriculture, Brook will spearhead the effort to protect American farmers, who are truly the backbone of our country.” Rollins was on Trump’s 2016 Economic Advisory Council and worked as the Director of the Domestic Public Policy Council. Rollins has also spent the past four years as the Founder and CEO of the American First Policy Institute and America First Works.

Agriculture Groups React to Ag Secretary Nominee

U.S. agriculture groups reacted to President-elect Donald Trump picking Brooke Rollins as his nominee for Secretary of Agriculture. “Brooke Rollins has fought for Main Street and rural America,” says National Cattlemen’s Beef Association Vice President of Government Affairs Ethan Lane. National Corn Growers Association President Kenneth Hartman Jr. says, “We’re ready to work on issues of importance to production agriculture, including expanding markets here and overseas for U.S. Corn.” Rob Larew, president of the National Farmers Union, hopes her rural roots instilled in her the important role that family farmers and ranchers play in supporting the national economy. National Sorghum Producers Chairwoman Amy France says this is an important moment for U.S. agriculture, and they are optimistic about the opportunities her leadership will bring to rural America. “We also look forward to working with the Secretary-designate to support our farmers and rural communities,” says Jack Pettus of the American Sugar Alliance.

U.S. Cattle on Feed Slightly Higher, Egg Production Lower

The USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report shows cattle and calves for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity totaled 12 million head on November 1, 2024. That inventory was slightly higher than in November 2023. October placements in feedlots totaled 2.29 million head, five percent above last year. Net placements totaled 2.23 million head. Fed cattle marketings during October were 1.85 million head, five percent above 2023. Other disappearances totaled 55,000 head in October. In poultry, U.S. egg production totaled 9.19 billion during October, down four percent from last year. Production included 7.89 billion table eggs. The average number of layers in October was 377 million, down three percent from 2023. October egg production per 100 layers reached 2,438 eggs, down one percent from October 1, 2023. Total egg layers on November 1, 2024, totaled 377 million, down three percent from last year.

Syngenta Collaborates with Ducks Unlimited on Conservation

The Sustainable and Responsible Business Team at Syngenta announced a collaboration with Ducks Unlimited, highlighting employees’ commitment to conservation in agriculture. In the spring, Syngenta and DU developed a contest for sharing employee stories and recognizing their leadership in conservation. Qualifying employees had the opportunity to showcase a range of products related to their personal, education, on-farm, or operational projects, with the grand prize winner getting two tickets to the “Concert for Conservation in Las Vegas, Nevada, a DU exclusive event. “Our goal is to learn from each other and to motivate staff to share, be involved, and do more, whether they grow crops or not,” says Liz Hunt, head of Syngenta Sustainability for North America. “We know our staffs love the agricultural way of life, nature, and wide-open spaces.” She also says it’s important DU staff realize they’re part of climate and biodiversity solutions too, not just the farmers Syngenta serves every day.

NPPC Celebrates the “Beagle Brigade”

The National Pork Producers Council celebrated the Senate’s unanimous passage of Senate Bill S.759. It’s known as the “Beagle Brigade Act, and it provides statutory authority and reliable funding for the National Dog Training Center. “American agriculture relies on the National Dog Detector Training Center to prevent the introduction of foreign animal and plant diseases that would cripple our food supply,” says NPPC President Lori Stevermer. “For the pork industry, the ‘Beagle Brigade’ is the first line of defense for keeping threats from foreign animal diseases, like African Swine Fever, out of the United States.” Stevermer also says they appreciate Iowa Senator Joni Ernst and their Senate supporters and urge the House to take this up before the end of the year. The agriculture canine teams of the Customs and Border Protection bolster national security by performing critically important inspections at U.S. ports of entry, and this bill strengthens the program.

Mike Spier is the Next President and CEO of U.S. Wheat Associates

The U.S. Wheat Associates directors elected Mike Spier, vice president of overseas operations, as the export market organization’s next President and CEO. The move becomes official with the retirement of current President and CEO Vince Peterson on July 1, 2025. Spier says he’s honored and humbled to be elected to this position and grateful to the officers and directors for their trust and confidence. “I’m immensely grateful to Vince Peterson, whose vision and dedication have laid a durable foundation for future success,” Spier says. “I look forward to working with my outstanding colleagues, as well as the National Association of Wheat Growers, state wheat commissions, and our industry partners.” Through his career, Spier has gained expertise in grain merchandising, international wheat trading, market analysis, risk management, hedging, coordination, execution, and negotiation of ocean freight contracts. He’s also traveled to more than 50 countries, implementing wheat export market development activities.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Consumer Confidence Index at 9 a.m. CST

U.S. Agricultural Trade Outlook at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

A system continues to move through the East on Tuesday, but the bigger story is the storm system in the West, where it is producing scattered rain and snow, especially from California to Colorado. This system will move into the Southern Plains on Wednesday and could cause some travel hazards for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Farm Labor Costs Continue Climbing

The USDA’s Farm Labor Report, released on November 20, offers a glimpse into the future of farm expenses. The Department of Labor uses the “field and livestock workers’ combined” wage rate reported in the November Farm Labor Report to establish most H-2A workers’ minimum wage, known as the Adverse Effect Wage Rate. This year, the combined field and livestock worker wage rate nationally is $18.12, up 3.2 percent from the 2023 release. Regional wages increased an average of 4.5 percent, but this reflects wide ranges of change across the country. Fruit and vegetable farmers, the largest users of H-2A, spend 38 percent of their farm expenses on labor, and that share will continue to grow if wages grow as they have in recent years. Rising farmworker wages are a challenge to American specialty crop producers competing with farmers in other countries who can hire at a fraction of the cost.

Senators Want Farm Aid Beyond Hurricane Damages

Federal officials testified before the Senate Appropriations Committee on how they’re dealing with disasters. Farm Policy News says Georgia and North Carolina senators testified about the devastation facing their farmers after Hurricanes Helene and Milton hit those states this Fall. Beyond those disasters, several senators also talked about significant financial losses facing row crop farmers in their states. “Many farmers across the country are on the verge of going out of business due to hurricanes, wildfires, drought, and other weather-related events that wiped out entire crops,” said Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS). “But there are also many farmers across the country on the verge of going out of business due to high input costs and below break-even commodity prices, and they need help too.” She added that for the first time in her career, she’s had lenders and bankers say they weren’t going to be able to help finance farmers in 2025.

Corn Growers Release Quarterly Economic Update

The National Corn Growers Association’s Economic Update reported on everything from trends to challenges, opportunities, and market conditions in U.S. agriculture. The rapid 2024 harvest gives farmers an edge on any fall field preparations and more time to finalize year-end financial plans, which is critical in the current high-cost and low-price environment. It also looked at the impact of a potential tariff war. A recent study by the NCGA and the American Soybean Association shows a reignited tariff war would limit market access, drop corn prices, and increase overseas market competition for U.S. corn. The report also detailed economic conditions, including government projections showing a drop in net income for farmers. The USDA predicts U.S. real net cash income for the U.S. farm sector will dip 9.6 percent in 2024. The decline follows a 24 percent drop last year. The report is designed to show what’s working and not working in U.S. agriculture.

Dairy Checkoff Support Launch of Yogurt-Based Snack

The dairy checkoff and General Mills created YoBark, a yogurt-based snack designed to give families a tasty option and expand yogurt’s presence in the snacking category. YoBark is refrigerated and combines the creaminess of yogurt with the crunchy texture of Nature Valley Granola, offering a multi-sensory flavor experience. It’s already available in places like Safeway and Walmart and will reach more retailers in the months ahead. Dairy Management Inc. has been working with General Mills on this concept since 2021, providing consumer insights on why “tweens” (ages 12-13) have decreased their yogurt consumption. DMI also provided new product concept development, package design, and research and development support. “Recognizing this trend, we partnered with General Mills and co-funded research to develop product concepts that would appeal to this demographic,” says Chris Urban, vice president of growth platforms and partnerships for DMI. ‘The lead concept that emerged from the collaboration is YoBark.”

South American Corn Production on Different Paths

Corn production in South America’s two major agricultural countries will follow two distinct paths during the 2024-2025 crop season. In Brazil, the planted acreage is expected to remain steady, but exports are likely to drop significantly due to intensified competition in the international markets. Conab has increased its estimate for Brazil’s total corn crop to 4.717 million bushels, a 3.6 percent increase from last year. If achieved, this would mark the second-largest harvest in Brazil’s history, trailing only the record in 2022-2023. Field activities are underway for Brazil’s first corn crop. In contrast, Argentina anticipates the largest relative decrease in corn acreage in 17 years, driven by concerns about the potential impact of corn stunt disease, which affected many producers’ yields last season. Farmdoc says Argentina’s corn exports are projected to reach their highest levels since the 2020-2021 season. Argentina’s corn planted area is projected to drop 25 percent.

NCBA Members Support Livestock Grazing to Prevent Wildfires

Members of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and the Public Lands Council testified before the House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Federal Lands. Their testimony supported legislation to expand the use of livestock grazing as a tool to reduce wildfire risk, make grazing permits more responsive to range conditions, and remove regulatory barriers to maintaining critical infrastructure. Each bill will work together to protect the beautiful landscapes across the West and support the ranchers who drive the economic success of rural communities. “I see a clear need for the Operational Flexibility Grazing Management Act,” says NCBA member and Utah cattleman Jeff Young. “Resource management shouldn’t be static; it should be responsive and collaborative.” He also says the bill represents an updated, modernized way to manage that land, understanding that you need flexibility to make things work from year to year. Targeted grazing can remove up to 1,000 pounds of wildfire fuel per acre.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Food Price Outlook at 8 a.m. CST

Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CST

Crop Progress Report at 3 p.m. CST

Weather

A weak system traveling east through the Midwest will produce scattered showers for Monday. Some snow is falling up in the northern Great Lakes area, but most areas will be warm enough for rain. A system off the West Coast will keep that area active Monday as well, bringing the bigger storm system for the week.

‘Dicamba Cannot be Fixed’: Senate Democrats Push to Keep Weedkiller Banned

The EPA is facing renewed pressure to deny applications re-registering the controversial weedkiller from three of the biggest crop protection companies. Three Senate Democrats are urging the Environmental Protection Agency to deny applications to re-register the herbicide dicamba, saying the weedkiller cannot be used without causing unreasonable adverse effects. The herbicide, which was pulled from the market earlier this year, can drift when sprayed and cause irreparable harm to human health, critical habitats and neighboring crops, according to a letter from senators Cory Booker, Bernie Sanders and Peter Welch. Re-registering the herbicide with tighter usage restrictions, as the agency has done in the past, has not been enough to mitigate damage from dicamba, the letter said. The senators reiterate that that dicamba cannot be fixed.

Corn Earworm Building Up More Resistance to Crop Protection Efforts

To minimize damage and reduce the need for insecticide sprays, crops have been genetically engineered to produce bacterial proteins that kill key pests but are not harmful to people or wildlife. However, widespread planting of such transgenic crops has led to rapid adaptation by some pests. Researchers from the University of Arizona used genomics to investigate the genetic changes causing resistance to transgenic crops in field populations of the corn earworm. The corn earworm is one the world’s most challenging pests in terms of its ability to quickly evolve resistance in the field to genetically engineered crops, says senior study author Bruce Tabashnik. To analyze the genetic basis of field-evolved resistance of corn earworm, insects were sent for DNA extraction and sequencing to enable scanning the entire genome for genetic differences between the resistant and susceptible corn earworm caterpillars. the genomic analysis included 937 corn earworms from 17 sites in seven states across the southern U.S.

Food Fight: US Dietary Guidelines Could Cut Meat and Potatoes

Beef groups slammed recommendations for consumers to increase their protein intake via beans, peas and lentils, calling the proposal “unhinged.” A major battle is brewing over how much red meat Americans should consume — and it has the beef industry seeing red. The United States is preparing next year to update its Dietary Guidelines for Americans, an influential set of recommendations that inform nutrition labels, what food is served in schools and hospitals and the advice that healthcare professionals give patients. Drafted recommendations are set to call for greater intake of plant-based foods while limiting consumption of beef and starchy vegetables like potatoes. The committee of scientists behind the recommendations also proposed moving “meats, poultry, eggs” to the last group listed in the protein-foods category while adding beans, peas and lentils as options.

US-Only Supply Chains Could Emerge Under Trump

Companies looking to avoid tariffs on imports from China will likely shake up their sourcing. Facing the threat of more tariffs, companies will begin to create supply chains just to export to America. Creating a separate supply chain for the U.S. market would mean eliminating components from China for products bound for the country. Speaking at the Port of Los Angeles this week, Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, asserted, “If the U.S. says, ‘no Chinese content, no matter what the good, what the product, whether there’s a national security implication or not,’ you’re going to see that supply chains will be created at higher expense just to serve the United States. With President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to impose tariffs during his administration, shippers and supply chain managers are revising their trade strategies — which could come at a higher cost. We’re looking ahead to a period that we think will be very active for trade policy.

How Are Pecans Being Affected by Climate Change?

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, which are already having a profound impact on the crops in large agricultural. We are seeing decreases in crop productivity due to plant stress from excessive dry and warm conditions. The University of Texas at El Paso study will look at how drought, heat waves, and soil impact the cycle of water and carbon between plants and the atmosphere in dryland agricultural ecosystems. It will focus on two orchards, one in the El Paso area and another in the Conchos River basin near the city of Delicias in the Mexican state of Chihuahua. The research team will monitor tree and root system growth, soil-plant water status, and canopy temperature. Their goal is to develop a detailed understanding of how soil structure and management practices can either mitigate or exacerbate the stress that plants experience during extreme weather events.

Corteva Unveils ‘Breakthrough’ in Drought-Resistant Wheat

A new seed hybrid has the potential to increase yields by 10% and represents one of the first major innovations for the crop in decades. This week Corteva unveiled a drought-resistant wheat seed that could be “revolutionary” in advancing more climate-resilient hybrids for a crop that’s been difficult to innovate. The new proprietary hybrid wheat seed has the potential to increase yields by 10% while using the same amount of land and resources. The non-GMO technology can also provide yields 20% above competitors in drought conditions. The Indianapolis-based company plans to bring hybrid Hard Red Winter wheat to North America by 2027 as competitors race to bring drought-tolerant seeds to market. Hybrid seeds, created by crossing two genetically different parents, have been used for decades by corn and soy farmers as a way to produce more resilient, higher yielding plants. However, due to the relatively complex genetics of wheat, progress on creating a hybrid has been slow.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Consumer Sentiment at 9 a.m. CST

Cattle On Feed and Chicken and Eggs report at 2 p.m. CST

CFTC Commitment of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CST

Weather

A system weakening in the Northeast is still able to produce some lake-effect showers in the Midwest for Friday, but mostly as rain. The Pacific Northwest continues to be pounded by a system off the West Coast with some snow leaking into the Canadian Prairies and Montana.

White House Wants $100 Billion for Disaster Relief

The White House is asking for $98.6 billion in emergency disaster relief funding following multiple hurricanes this fall. Roll Call says the administration wants a comprehensive package that extends back to unmet needs from prior disasters, encompassing requests the White House made over a year ago. The largest piece of the funding, $40 billion, would restore the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s dwindling fund for immediate disaster response needs. Another $21 billion would allow USDA to compensate farmers and ranchers for crop and livestock losses. “From rebuilding homes and reopening critical infrastructure to supporting the nation’s farmers and ranchers and ensuring access to healthcare services, impacted communities await your response,” President Biden wrote in a letter to Congress. “There can be no delay.” Congress will decide how much to appropriate and whether to attach the package to a stopgap measure that may be needed to avoid a partial government shutdown after December 20.

Summit Carbon Applies Again for Pipeline in South Dakota

Summit Carbon Solutions resubmitted an application for a carbon dioxide pipeline to South Dakota state regulators this week. The application included “major reroutes” of the proposed structure in four South Dakota counties. The move happened over a year after the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission rejected the company’s first application. “By working hand-in-hand with landowners and communities, we’ve developed a project that balances progress with respect for those directly involved,” says Lee Blank, CEO of Summit Carbon Solutions. “Together, we’re creating a new pathway to new markets and lasting economic growth for generations to come.” The 2,500-mile pipeline will include 700 miles in South Dakota. It will eventually transport CO2 from 57 ethanol plants across five states, including 14 in South Dakota and Gevo’s (JEE-voes) SAF plant near Lake Preston, South Dakota. The majority of the CO2 will be safely and permanently stored in North Dakota via Class Six injection wells.

AFBF Thanksgiving Survey Shows Dinner Cost Declined from 2023

Cooking a Thanksgiving dinner this year for friends and family will cost less than last year but is still more expensive than before COVID-19. The 39th annual Thanksgiving dinner survey shows the cost of this year’s classic holiday feast for ten people is $58.08 or about $5.80 per person. That’s a five percent decrease from 2023, which was 4.5 percent lower than 2022. Two years of declines don’t erase dramatic increases that led to a record high cost of $64.06 in 2022. Despite the encouraging momentum, a Thanksgiving meal is still 19 percent higher than it was in 2019. Turkey, the centerpiece on most tables, helped bring down the overall cost of the dinner. The average price for a 16-pound turkey is $25.67. That’s $1.68 per pound, which is down six percent from 2023. Items like dinner rolls and cubed stuffing both saw an eight percent increase, and cranberries were up 12 percent.

Poultry Processing Injuries and Illness Fall Sharply

The incidence of occupational injuries and illnesses within the poultry sector’s slaughter and processing workforce has fallen sharply. The number of injury and illness occurrences is below all general industry, manufacturing, and food manufacturing levels for the first time since the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics began recording the information in 1994. The 2023 incident rate of 2.6 injuries and illnesses per 100 full-time workers represents an 89 percent decrease from 1994, the oldest data available on the Bureau of Labor Statistics website, when the recorded rate was 22.7. “The poultry industry has always prioritized employee safety and remains dedicated to preventing workplace injuries and illnesses, with a particular focus on disorders like carpal tunnel syndrome,” says the Joint Poultry Industry Safety and Health Council. “By embracing ergonomic practices and early medical intervention, and by adopting new technology and automation, the industry has made significant strides in worker safety.”

USDA Funding to Strengthen the Specialty Crops Sector

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack announced the creation of new programs that will help farmers who grow fruits, vegetables, and nuts overcome market barriers for their products. The programs will also help producers access necessary pre-market storage for their crops following severe weather events, including the recent hurricanes. The new Marketing Assistance for Specialty Crops Initiative will provide $2 billion to assist specialty crop growers in maintaining a strong domestic supply and expanding market opportunities for their crops. USDA is also creating the Commodity Storage Assistance Program that will provide $140 million to help producers gain access to a packinghouse, grain elevator, or other facilities necessary for marketing their commodities. This program is designed for farmers nationwide due to disaster-related challenges, and USDA anticipates a high signup rate in the Southeast due to hurricane devastation. “These programs will be important for producers in every corner of the U.S.,” says Vilsack.

Sugar Alliance Congratulates Congressional Leadership

The American Sugar Alliance congratulated John Thune (R-SD) on his election as Senate Majority Leader and Representative Mike Johnson (R-LA) on his re-election as Speaker of the House. “American farmers are vital to American strength and food security, and we’re encouraged to see strong agricultural champions positioned in these key leadership roles,” says Jack Pettus, Chairman of the American Sugar Alliance. From coast to coast, American sugarbeet and sugarcane farmers and factory workers support more than 151,000 jobs and drive $23.3 billion in annual economic activity. “Both the Senate and House leadership teams will be comprised of members who have a first-hand understanding of why we must keep American sugar production in America,” Pettus added. “We look forward to working with them as we continue advocating for our farmers, workers, and the rural communities they support.” The American Sugar Alliance is strongly urging Congress to pass a new five-year Farm Bill.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CST

Agricultural Exchange Rate Data at 2 p.m. CST

Livestock Slaughter at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

A balled-up system in the Great Lakes is producing scattered rain and snow showers across the region on Thursday. Some heavier snow will move down around Lake Michigan and through Indiana along with some breezy winds. Meanwhile, heavy precipitation continues to move into the Pacific Northwest, with some snow showers leaking into the Canadian Prairies as well.

Farm Loan Concerns in Struggling Ag Economy

A new report says banks could be more hesitant to lend to the farm sector just as the agricultural industry is expected to enter a major credit crunch. Rabobank says that could disproportionately hurt smaller producers in the process. After two years of near-record profits, a significant drop in crop prices is pushing more producers to take out loans. Although farmers have built up somewhat of a liquidity buffer to manage the downturn, Rabobank says those savings are expected to run out by the next crop year. “Although the U.S. agricultural sector’s financial affairs are projected to finish 2023-2024 in stable condition, the trajectory is downward,” the report says. Demand for farm loans is set to climb to levels not seen since 2013 with producers expected to increase their borrowing by billions of dollars over the next several years. Producers may face stricter borrowing requirements when taking out new loans.

Stabenow Releases Democrat’s Version of the Senate Farm Bill

Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow spoke on the Senate floor and introduced the “Rural Prosperity and Food Security Act.” She says for more than two years, she’s been working with colleagues on both sides of the aisle to pass her sixth farm bill. “The farmers I met with made clear that the farm safety net must be the backbone of support for all farmers, and not just a handful of mostly southern commodities,” she said. “Large increases in farm subsidies shouldn’t be paid for on the back of our families in need or the broader needs of our small towns and rural communities.” Farm Policy News says her Senate bill and the House-approved bill differ in multiple ways. Top Ag Republican John Boozman of Arkansas quickly rejected the proposal, saying, “A partisan proposal released 415 days after the expiration of the current farm bill is insulting. America’s farmers deserve better.”

Congress Reaffirms Low Costs of Keeping AM in Vehicles

The Congressional Budget Office released a second cost analysis for the revised AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act of 2024. Radio Ink says the scoring still bodes well for radio. The estimated budgetary effects of the Senate and House bills are similar. The CBO estimates that 2.5 to three million EVs annually would need updates to media equipment and software. While the cost of these updates is considered minimal, the CBO estimates the total annual cost for automakers would be in the low millions, and far below the $200 million threshold for private-sector mandates set by the U.S. government. While both the Senate and House versions of the bill remain pending, bipartisan support continues growing. The National Association of Broadcasters, NAFB, state broadcast associations, legislators, and tens of thousands of listeners are calling on Congress to act swiftly by emphasizing AM radio as a free and reliable platform for emergency communications.

Minneapolis Fed Saw Farm Incomes Drop

During the fall, harvests are typically the biggest concern on farmers’ minds. But even in parts of the Ninth District where crops looked bountiful, crop prices that have been falling for the last two years were a bigger worry this year. That’s according to an October survey of agricultural bankers by the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank. “Above average yields may somewhat offset the lower commodity prices,” a South Dakota banker said in the survey. “The resulting financial stress on many operations will most likely be more noticeable this year.” The survey asked about conditions from July through September, and respondents say farm incomes across the region overwhelmingly dropped. Spending on capital equipment also fell, though farm household purchases increased on balance. Tighter income pushed up demand for loans, while the rate of loan repayments dropped. Loan renewal and extension activity increased. Land values and cash rents also increased from a year earlier.

Pork Producers Disappointed in Failure to Address Prop 12

The National Pork Producers Council issued a statement after Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow unveiled the Senate Democrats’ 2024 Farm Bill text. While NPPC appreciates Chairman Stabenow’s efforts to publish farm bill text, they say it’s simply not a viable bill. “It fails to provide a solution to California’s Prop 12,” says NPPC President Lori Stevermer, a Minnesota pork producer. “Pork producers have continually spoken up about the negative impact of this issue, and it’s a shame these conversations were disregarded,” Stevermer said. In May, NPPC secured 100 percent of pork producers’ priorities in the House Agriculture Committee-passed bipartisan 2024 Farm Bill. In June, producers once again secured all policy priorities in Senate Ag Ranking Member John Boozman’s 2024 Farm Bill Framework. NPPC is urging both the House and Senate to swiftly consider and pass a farm bill this year that includes a legislative fix to California’s Proposition 12.

USDA Trade Mission to Morocco and West Africa in December

Representatives from 50 U.S. agribusinesses and trade groups and 14 state departments of agriculture will travel to Casablanca, Morocco, on December 2-5. “This mission offers a crucial opportunity for U.S. agribusinesses to enter into Morocco’s dynamic market and leverage its strategic position for wider American access,” says Foreign Agricultural Service Administrator Daniel Whitley, who will lead the trade mission. “We are dedicated to facilitating these vital connections and expanding America’s agricultural exports.” Morocco is the second-largest export market for U.S. agriculture in Africa. U.S. sales of farm and food products to the country topped $619 million last year, representing 16 percent of the continent’s market share. American agricultural exports to Morocco have doubled since the U.S.-Morocco Free Trade Agreement went into effect in 2006. Whitley says U.S. exporters have a number of opportunities in numerous sectors, including beef, dairy, feed grains, live animals, rice, seafood, seed potatoes, soybeans, and more.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Weekly Petroleum status report including ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CST

Weather

A system continues in the Canadian Prairies, bringing heavy snow to eastern areas and down into the North-Central U.S. as well. The system is pushing colder air through more of the country. On the leading edge of that cold air, some showers have developed in Illinois early Wednesday morning and a new low pressure center will develop around Michigan today, continuing the showers in the Midwest for the rest of the week as a mix of rain and snow. Snow could come down heavy at times the next couple of days. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest will continue to be pounded by a large storm.

AFBF Expels Illinois FB, Legal Challenges to Follow

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) has kicked the Illinois Farm Bureau out of the federation effective December 20 in a dispute over member dues. The Illinois organization has responded by challenging the move in circuit court. A letter from AFBF President Zippy Duvall to state farm bureau presidents said the action comes after a failed mediation session on Monday. The move is in retaliation for a decision by the Illinois Farm Bureau’s affiliate, Country Financial, to drop a Farm Bureau membership eligibility requirement for non-farm insurance policy holders in Illinois. The Illinois Farm Bureau and Country Financial have the same individuals on both boards of directors, though they have different fiduciary duties. WGLT reports there are three other states where Country does business where farm clients are required to be members of their state farm bureau, but none except Illinois where non-farm clients had to buy a farm bureau membership as well. 

Mississippi River Low During Harvest for Third Straight Year

The Mississippi River is experiencing an unwelcome three-peat with low water levels during harvest season. The “Mighty Mississip” experienced low water in both 2022 and 2023 and now once again this harvest season. Charts from the U.S. Geological Survey show precipitation and the resulting water levels were quite robust during the spring and early summer. But after mid-July, precipitation declined significantly, which caused a steady and dramatic decrease in water levels. The short-lived 15-plus foot spike in water levels at Memphis due to Hurricane Helene passed through the system quickly in late September, and the levels returned to where they were earlier. The impact on agriculture shipping can be dramatic when water levels drop. For example, for each foot of draft reduction on the river, an individual barge is loaded with 7,000 fewer bushels (200 tons) of soybeans. Depending on the location in the river, tow sizes are being reduced from 10-15% at minimum and upwards of 30-40%. 

Producers Readying Themselves for New Trade War Under Trump

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack announced Thursday that USDA is funding new projects in nearly every state to lower costs, expand access to clean energy and strengthen American farms and small businesses. USDA is making the investments through the Rural Energy for America Program (REAP). “The Biden-Harris Administration and USDA are ensuring farmers, small business owners and rural communities have the resources they need for the future,” Secretary Vilsack said. “The investments I’m announcing today will help rural communities lead our country toward an economy that benefits working people everywhere with lower costs and clean energy jobs.” Vilsack said this new round invests more than $256 million in loans and grants that will support more than 1,100 clean energy projects in 40 states. Most of the new projects are funded by the Inflation Reduction Act. 

Ducks Unlimited, Sorghum Producers to Promote Water Conservation

Ducks Unlimited (DU) and National Sorghum Producers (NSP) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to cooperatively promote water conversation. This MOU aims to develop and expand a framework of cooperation between DU and NSP uniquely focused on water savings and market innovation. The partnership will support agricultural producers and surrounding rural communities by promoting water-efficient practices, expand critical waterfowl habitat that also recharges below-ground aquifers, and drive innovation into new value-added opportunities around ‘water-smart’ commodities. “If there’s one thing that ducks and agriculture both need, it’s water,” said DU CEO Adam Putnam. “DU and NSP have a shared interest in conserving America’s precious water resources, and our collaboration will enable us to achieve success that wouldn’t be possible alone.” “National Sorghum Producers has long championed innovative, sustainable practices that enhance agricultural productivity while preserving our vital natural resources,” NSP CEO Tim Lust said. “Sorghum...serves as a water-sipping alternative to more thirsty crops, making it indispensable in water-stressed regions.” 

Food Prices Slightly Higher in October

The October Consumer Price Index numbers for food-at-home show that prices increased just 0.1% for the month and fell to 1.1% year over year. Heading into the holiday season, some prices have moderated. Andy Harig, vice president for FMI, the Food Industry Association, said, the "CPI numbers illustrate once again that -- while the process of bringing down overall inflation continues to be a work in progress -- food price inflation remains on a solid path.” In addition, turkey prices are down 11% from last year, ham prices are expected to drop 2.5% and apples, fresh cranberries and frozen pies are all expected to be more affordable. "With Thanksgiving around the corner, the good news for consumers is that many traditional items will cost less than last year," according to Harig. The overall CPI edged up a slight 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, the same rate as the each of the previous three months.  

Cox Farms Becomes North America’s Largest Indoor Farmer

Cox Farms, a recently launched subsidiary of telecommunications conglomerate Cox Enterprises, said it is now the largest indoor farming operator in North America following its latest acquisition of a greenhouse facility in Canada. Cox-owned Mucci Farms added to its footprint with the acquisition of Greenhill Produce, a nearly 150-acre facility in Kent Bridge, Ontario, that specializes in bell peppers. Financial details were not disclosed. The purchase gives Cox Farms more than 700 acres of greenhouse space across its two brands. In addition to Mucci Farms, Cox also owns leafy greens grower BrightFarms. Since launching in March, Cox Farms has embarked on a rapid acquisition spree and doubled the acreage across its two brands in roughly nine months. “Seeing Cox Farms become North America’s largest greenhouse operator is a proud moment for us,” Alex Taylor, chairman and CEO of Cox Enterprises, said in a statement. “Cox Farms is not only providing fresh food options to millions but is also setting a powerful example of building a better future in agriculture.” 

Friday Watch List

Markets

USDA/FAS Export sales report at 7:30am CT

U.S. retail sales report at 7:30am CT

US Industrial production and capacity utilization at 8:15am CT

USDA Livestock Outlook at 2pm CT

CFTC Commitment of Traders data at 2:30pm CT

Weather

An overall quiet day is in store east of the Rockies Friday. But a system is moving through the West and will bring scattered showers in some areas there.

Thune Elected Senate Majority Leader

Senate Republicans have elected South Dakota’s John Thune as the next Senate majority leader after rejecting public overtures from allies of President-elect Donald Trump who backed a different candidate. MSN reports Thune won in a secret-ballot vote of 29-24, beating out opposing candidates John Cornyn of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida. The 63-year-old Thune will succeed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has led his chamber's Republicans since 2007 and is the longest-serving Senate party leader in U.S. history. Thune has served as whip since 2019 and campaigned heavily for his GOP colleagues during this election cycle, a metric often used to size up candidates' fundraising prowess and willingness to help out the party. Thune raised $33 million this cycle and attended more than 200 events for Republican candidates, according to his office. Thune has served in the Senate since 2005. Before that, he was South Dakota's at-large representative in the House for six years.

Zeldin Tabbed to Head EPA

President-elect Donald Trump has selected former New York congressman Lee Zeldin to run the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The nomination for EPA administrator will need confirmation from the Senate, where Republicans are poised to hold a majority of seats next term. “Zeldin will ensure fair and swift deregulatory decisions that will be enacted in a way to unleash the power of American businesses,” Trump said in a statement, adding that Zeldin will still maintain “the highest environmental standards.”  NPR reports environmental groups decried the nomination as a step backward for environmental policy. Reuters reports during his time in Congress from 2015 to 2023 as a representative from New York, Zeldin cast “yes” votes on key pieces of environmental legislation just 14% of the time, according to a scorecard by environmental group the League of Conservation Voters.

Tractor Sales Plummet in October

Sales of tractors for agricultural use plunged year-over-year in October, according to data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. Tractor sales dropped 14% from the same month a year earlier to 21,354 units. Combine sales fell almost 35%. These declines point to the overall softness in the ag economy following a robust five years of positive industry results. Sales of two-wheel drive tractors fell 15% to 20,631 units, led by a 38% drop in sales of those with 100 horsepower or more. Sales of tractors with 40 to 99 horsepower fell 13% to 5,868 and those with less than 40 horsepower lost 8.4% to 12,185 units. Successful Farming reports sales of four-wheel drive tractors were down 0.4% to 723 units. Meanwhile, combine sales plunged about 35% to 516 units.

Corn and Soybean Harvests Nearly Complete

As of November 10, 95% of the 2024 corn crop in the top 18 corn-growing states was harvested. This was up from 91% a week prior and ahead of the five-year average of 84%. USDA said 96% of the soybean crop in the top 18 growing states was in the bins. This was up from 94% the week prior and ahead of the five-year average of 91%. Planting is also making progress with winter wheat across the top 18 states at 91% planted as of Nov. 10. This was up from 87% the week prior but behind the five-year average of 93%. USDA said 76% of winter wheat was out of the ground. This was up from 66% the week prior but behind the five-year average of 79%.

Trump Administration Likely to Abandon HIIPP Rule

A second Donald Trump presidency will likely spell the death of OSHA’s recently published heat safety rule, but experts say it won’t necessarily mean no standard will come to pass. The agency published the proposed rule and began accepting public comments this summer. That time period will close on December 30. Then it would take several months for OSHA to review all of the input, finalize the rule, and put it into effect. But Ashley Brightwell, partner in Atlanta-based Alston & Bird’s labor and employment group, called the finalization of the rule “highly unlikely” before President Biden leaves office. The standard would also face congressional and legal challenges, and she added the Trump administration could abandon the rulemaking process altogether. The 1,000-page rule requires a Heat Injury and Illness Prevention Plan, or HIIPP, that employers would need to put into effect for a heat trigger when temperatures reach 80 degrees Fahrenheit.

First State to Complete Soybean Harvest? Minnesota!

The first state to complete the 2024 soybean harvest was a surprise: Minnesota has finished its harvest, the USDA said in the latest Crop Progress Report. The state was five percentage points ahead of its five-year average for November 3. This is a change from 2023, when Louisiana was the first state to get all of its soybeans in the bin. Minnesota Soybean Growers Association President Darin Johnson, who farms in Faribault County near the southern border, told Successful Farming that weather conditions played a big role in farmers getting into fields early to harvest. A really dry August and September pushed the harvest window up so much that farmers were in the fields harvesting soybeans by mid-September. According to the June Acreage Report released by USDA, Minnesota planted the third-most soybeans in the country in 2024 at 7.53 million acres.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Brazilian agency Conab releases their November crop report at 6 a.m. CST

Producer Price Index at 7:30 a.m. CST

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report including ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CST

ERS Cost of Production Forecast at 2 p.m. CST

Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

A storm system in the Midwest continues to produce showers there down to the Southeast early Thursday morning. The system will continue to slide eastward, with some areas of moderate rainfall. A trough continues to dig into the West, setting up several storm systems for the weekend and next week.

Mexico Now Top U.S. Export Customer, China Drops to Third

U.S. food and ag sales to Mexico surged by 7% during the 2024 fiscal year, making the North American neighbor the No. 1 ag export customer, according to Census Bureau data tracked by the USDA. China fell to third place behind Canada in export purchases. Shipments to Mexico totaled $30 billion, an increase of $2 billion from 2023, with purchases that included a record 24.5 million metric tons of corn, 40% of all U.S. corn exports for the year. Canada bought $29 billion and China $25.7 billion of American-grown food and ag products. Together, Mexico and Canada accounted for one-third of U.S. food and ag exports of $173 billion for the year. And they were forecast to repeat as the top two markets in fiscal 2025, with China again in third place. Brazil has gained a larger share of the ag import market in China.

Producers Readying Themselves for New Trade War Under Trump

U.S. agriculture is bracing for a new trade war under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, but Reuters reports producers say they are “better prepared” this time than they were in 2016, when Trump was first elected. “China will remain a key market,” according to Jason Hafemeister, USDA Acting Deputy Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Services. “Even in the last couple of years we’ve recognized the potential for disruption in U.S.-China trade so a lot of our efforts have gone into diversifying our markets.” Trump is threatening new tariffs on Chinese imports, and China is likely to reciprocate. “I think it’s terribly naive of anyone to think that the election of Trump and the Republican party will be positive for agriculture,” said Jay O’Neil, a grain industry consultant and former economist at Kansas State University.

USDA Cuts Soybean Yield, But Probably Not Enough to Bounce Market

USDA slashed expectations for soybeans on Friday in a surprise revision to its production outlook, potentially offering some relief to farmers who have struggled with surplus crops and low prices. Soybean production is forecast at 4.46 billion bushels, down 3% from USDA’s October forecast. Yields are expected to average 51.7 bushels per acre, a decline of 1.4 bushels from the previous forecast. Markets moved slightly higher in reaction to the news, with  USDA economist Seth Meyer saying corn increased by 3 cents and soybeans improved by 5 to 6 cents. However, market response was moderated with crop supply still plentiful. “On the bean side, [there was] a pretty late season yield surprise,” Meyer said, “but was still a plentiful carryout, which is really going to temper the market’s ability to push those prices higher.”

Thompson Leads List of Potential Ag Secretary Candidates

House Agriculture Chair Glenn Thompson is among those being considered for agriculture secretary in the next Trump administration, according to a person familiar with the team’s thinking. Politico reports the Pennsylvania Republican, who developed closer ties to Trump during the president-elect’s many campaign visits to the Keystone State, offers deep knowledge of agriculture policy. The Trump transition team neither confirmed nor denied the possibility of tapping Thompson. “President-Elect Trump will begin making decisions on who will serve in his second Administration soon. Those decisions will be announced when they are made,” said spokesperson Karoline Leavitt. Other names being mentioned are Former Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agriculture Affairs Ted McKinney; Kip Tom, formerly U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Agencies for Food and Agriculture; and former White House ag advisor Ray Starling.

Export Inspections Down Week over Week

Inspections of corn, beans and wheat for overseas delivery all declined week to week, according to data from the Ag Department. Corn inspections in the seven days that ended on Oct. 31 were reported at 779,078 metric tons, the agency said. That’s down more than seven percent from a week earlier but more than 26 percent above the 574,558 tons assessed during the same week a year earlier. Soybean assessments totaled 2.16 million tons, down from 2.63 million tons the previous week and just below the 2.18 million tons inspected at the same point in 2023. Examinations of wheat for export dropped to 193,523 tons, just 65 percent of the inspections the week prior. The total was still above the 114,318 tons assessed in the same week last year, the agency said. Since the start of the marketing year on Sept. 1, USDA has inspected 7.42 million metric tons of wheat for export. That’s up from 5.55 million tons during the same time frame a year earlier.

Tractor Manufacturers Slow Production as Demand Declines

As farmers struggle with low crop prices, relatively high interest rates and increased input costs, fewer are making big-ticket purchases like tractors, combines and farm implements, resulting in a backlog of inventory across the globe. Machinery manufacturer AGCO has about four months of orders with its dealers in North America and is looking to bring that number down to three, Eric Hansotia, AGCO's president and CEO, said in an investor call last week. In general, manufacturers want to optimize their coverage to avoid extra costs and storage fees. "We will continue to focus on under-producing retail demand, coupled with retail market share execution to bring dealer inventories in line with our targeted range," according to Hansotia. Competitors Deere & Co. and CNH have also slowed their production and reduced their workforce numbers throughout the year to account for the down market. While tractor and combine sales wane, manufacturers are expecting precision agriculture sales to grow as farmers look to boost yields and lower day-to-day costs.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Consumer Price Index at 7:30 a.m. CST

USDA Oil Crops Outlook at 11 a.m. CST

USDA Feed, Rice, and Wheat Outlooks at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

A small system is moving from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning, bringing scattered showers into the region. Some heavier rain will be possible from the Delta into the Ohio Valley with some thunderstorms later in the day. The Pacific Northwest will continue to have showers moving through as well.

Cost Down to Raise 2025 Corn Crop

Looking ahead to the 2025 corn crop, one company says the cost to raise that crop is down. Farmers National Company says 2025 crop inputs are expected to see a slight reduction compared to 2024. While some farms may experience increased costs for specific reasons, such as adding lime, improving drainage, or boosting fertility, the overall picture suggests a decrease in expenses for most farms. The reduction is primarily anticipated in fertilizer, crop insurance, and interest costs. Seed, chemicals, equipment, labor, and the cost of land are expected to remain stable. FNC expects fertilizer costs to decrease by up to 10 percent. Crop insurance costs are expected to be down in 2025 based on current commodity prices for next year. Interest rates have decreased slightly, with further reductions expected in 2025. As always, FNC says these expectations are based on no major disruptions from weather, worldwide events, or farm bill changes.

Kircher Named President of the National Chicken Council

The National Chicken Council’s Board of Directors announced that Harrison Kircher is the new President and CEO of the organization, effective January 1, 2025. “On behalf of the NCC Board, I congratulate Harrison on his appointment as the new President and CEO,” says NCC Chairman Bill Griffith. “His dedication, expertise, and leadership have been evident throughout his time with the Council.” Kircher has been a member of the NCC team for 13 years, most recently as the senior vice president of government affairs in 2021. His primary focus there has been advancing NCC’s lobbying efforts on Capitol Hill and educating members of Congress and their staffs on a wide range of policy issues, including agriculture, appropriations, immigration, labor, energy, and international trade. “I’m honored to accept this position and the opportunity to continue working for the chicken industry,” Kircher says. “I’m confident in our future success given the strong team around me.”

AFBF Presents First Veteran Farmer Award of Excellence

Retired Army Colonel Joe Ricker (RY-ker) of Indiana is the first winner of the Veteran Farmer Award of Excellence presented by the American Farm Bureau Federation with support from Farm Credit. Ricker served 30 years in the Army before retiring from a Pentagon logistics post in 2022. Since leaving the Army, Ricker started At Ease Orchard, a nonprofit that introduces veterans, first responders, and their family members to beekeeping and other farm activities. He also founded Veterans in Farming, which provides vets in Indiana with training and support to succeed in farming. Ricker has also served as a veteran outreach coordinator for AgrAbility. “We’re proud to elevate and celebrate Col. Joe Ricker for his past service to our country and current involvement in agriculture and local communities,” says AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “We greatly appreciate the sacrifices of veterans and their services, and I’m delighted to highlight their contributions to agriculture, too.”

Clean Fuels Alliance Commends CARB

Clean Fuels Alliance America commends the California Air Resources Board (CARB) for passing amendments to the state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard. The group says that’s another step forward in California’s decarbonization leadership. Clean Fuels acknowledges CARB’s continued commitment to a cleaner future while recognizing there is more work ahead to ensure crop-based renewable fuels are recognized as a long-term solution. “Clean Fuels has enjoyed a long partnership with CARB and is committed to working with staff to ensure that the updated regulations can meet California’s aggressive carbon reduction targets while supporting the agricultural community that is the backbone for our sustainable clean fuels,” says Cory-Ann Wind, director of state regulatory affairs at Clean Fuels Alliance. Since the LCFS was adopted in 2009, California fleets have used increasing amounts of biomass-based diesel to lower emissions and lessen reliance on fossil fuels. Biodiesel is responsible for 45 percent of California’s LCFS progress.

USMEF Elects New Chair

Steven Hanson, a rancher and cattle feeder from Nebraska was elected chair of the U.S. Meat Export Federation at the organization’s Strategic Planning Conference in Tucson, Arizona. Hanson said a priority will be to highlight the partnerships with the various checkoffs that support the work of USMEF around the globe. He also touted the strength that comes from the unified work of all the various sectors of the red meat industry that are involved in the USMEF. Hanson succeeds Minnesota hog producer and grain farmer Randy Spronk. Jay Theiler is the USMEF Chair-Elect and executive vice president of corporate affairs for Agri Beef Co., a diversified business with operations in every step of the beef supply chain, including ranching cattle feeding, cattle nutrition, and beef processing. Dave Bruntz is USMEF’s vice chair and president of Bruntz Farming and Feeding in Southeastern Nebraska and raises irrigated corn and soybeans and feeds cattle.

CDC Wants Expanding H5N1 Testing for Farmworkers

A new study recently showed that some dairy workers had signs of H5N1 infection even when they didn’t report feeling sick. As a result, federal health officials called for more testing of employees on farms affected by bird flu. The University of Texas Medical Branch says farmworkers in close contact with infected animals should be tested and offered treatment, even if they show no H5N1 symptoms. The new guidance comes after blood tests for 115 farmworkers in Michigan and Colorado showed that eight workers – seven percent – had antibodies that indicated a previous infection with H5N1 influenza. The purpose of the actions is to keep workers safe, to limit the transmission to humans, and to reduce the possibility of the virus changing. The CDC study provides the largest window to date into how the bird virus first detected in March in dairy cows may be spreading to people.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Grain Inspections at 10 a.m. CST

Feed Grains Update at 11 a.m. CST

Seasonal Average Price Forecast from ERS at 2 p.m. CST

Crop Progress report at 3 p.m. CST

Weather

A system in the Rockies will move out into the Plains later in the day on Tuesday, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms building into the overnight hours. Conditions will be much drier elsewhere.

USDA Reduces Corn and Soybean Production Estimates More Than Expected

This month’s 2024/2025 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production and ending stocks, according to the November WASDE report. Corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down 60 million from last month on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 183.1 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Total use is unchanged at 15 billion bushels. With supply falling and no change to use, corn ending stocks are down to 1.9 billion bushels. U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2024/2025 include lower production, exports, crush, and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.5 billion bushels, down 121 million on reduced yields. The largest production changes are for Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota. Exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 1.8 billion on lower supplies and sales to date. Crush is lowered 15 million bushels to 2.4 billion, reflecting lower soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean ending stocks are lowered 80 million bushels to 470 million bushels.

USDA Tightens Numbers as Harvest Nears Completion

The latest month-over-month adjustments to USDA’s Crop Production Forecast reflect tightening of numbers as harvest winds down. The National Agricultural Statistics Service reports lower production forecast in November for major spring planted crops, soybean production forecasts lowered 3% from the previous month, and corn and cotton production declining by less than 1% from October. Yet record to near-record marks are still indicated in various production categories, the second-highest total production for soybeans, fueled by the second-highest yield total on record, and record yields for corn, contributing to the third highest production totals on record for that crop. For example, even with the slight production forecast adjustments, the season-ending average price estimates for corn, beans and cotton remained unchanged from the previous month.

EPA Urged to Ban Paraquat

More than 50 U.S. lawmakers are urging the Environmental Protection Agency to ban the use of a weedkiller linked to Parkinson’s disease and other health risks to humans. In a letter to the agency, seven U.S. senators said that paraquat, a chemical commonly used on farms across the country to protect row crops, fruits and vegetables, is a highly toxic pesticide whose continued use cannot be justified given its harms to farmworkers and rural communities. The call for a nationwide ban came after 47 U.S. Representatives sent a similar letter to the EPA earlier in October. According to findings from a recent study, paraquat could more than double a person’s odds of developing Parkinson’s if not sprayed more than 500 meters from where people live and work.

CDC Calling for More H5N1 Testing of Dairy Farm Employees

A new study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that some dairy farm employees showed signs of infection, even when they didn’t report feeling sick. The CDC concluded that more bird flu testing of dairy farm employees is required. The purpose of these actions is to keep workers safe, to limit the transmission of H5N1 to humans and to reduce the possibility of the virus changing. The new CDC study provides the largest window to date into how the bird virus detected last March in dairy cows may be spreading to people. The study suggests the virus has infected more humans than the 46 farmworkers currently identified in the U.S. Nearly all were in contact with infected dairy cows or infected poultry. The scientific community considers every additional infection in animals or humans a chance for the virus to change in potentially dangerous ways.

California Voters Reject Ban on ‘Factory Farming’

A proposal to phase out large livestock operations in a major California agricultural county failed. California voters in the major agricultural region of Sonoma (suh-NO-mah) County overwhelmingly voted down a controversial ballot proposal to phase out large farms in a win for the meat industry. The ballot initiative, Measure J, which about 85% of the voters opposed, would have banned large livestock farms, also known as concentrated animal feeding operations. Proponents said the measure would protect animal welfare as well as provide a national model to transform food systems away from large-scale agriculture. Around two dozen CAFOs operate in Sonoma County, including four owned by poultry giant Perdue Farms. However, the majority of the state’s CAFOs are in California’s Central Valley. The ballot measure in the rural county spurred broad pushback from farmers, who expressed concern that the loss of large farms could have ripple effects throughout the agricultural economy.

Floods, Winter Weather Expected in Oklahoma and Texas

Flood warnings and watches remain in effect in much of central Oklahoma and north-central Texas amid ongoing storms, according to the National Weather Service. Several rivers were overrunning their banks in parts of the region Friday morning as rain and thunderstorms were forecast to continue into the weekend, the agency said. In eastern Colorado and New Mexico and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, blizzard warnings were in effect for the weekend. As much as 10 inches of snow are forecast for parts of the panhandles as long as temperatures stay low enough. Prolonged rain rather than snow will promote melting of existing snowfall, limiting new accumulations to only a few inches or less, with lesser impacts, the agency said. Any locations that are able to stay as snow longer before precipitation ends could see 5 to 10 inches of new accumulations and increased impacts.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Veteran's Day Holiday: U.S. bond market closed, most U.S. futures will trade, Canada markets are closed.

Weather

A few showers will go through the Great Lakes and East Coast while the next system moves into the West, but most areas of the country are quiet and dry for Monday. It is also warm by November standards for most areas.

Speculation Starts on Next Ag Secretary

Speculation has already begun on who the next Secretary of Agriculture will be when Donald Trump returns to the White House in January. Successful Farming says Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller, former ambassador Kip Tom, and Ted McKinney of NASDA are among a handful of people viewed as potential nominees to run the Department of Agriculture. Incoming presidents typically try to announce their nominees before the year-end holidays, although Trump didn’t announce Sonny Perdue to lead USDA until two days before his inauguration. Miller was initially mentioned for USDA after Trump won his first term. Tom was the U.S. ambassador to the UN agencies for food and agriculture in Rome during the first term. McKinney, the undersecretary for trade in the first administration, is now the CEO of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture. North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum has also been mentioned because his term expires in December.

South Dakota Voters Turn Down Pipeline Regulation Bill

Referred Law 21 in South Dakota would have created new requirements for regulating linear transmission facilities, including carbon dioxide pipelines, and allowed counties to assess a surcharge on certain pipelines. It also sought to establish a “Landowners Bill of Rights.” The numbers are showing the state’s voters said “no” to the ballot measure, which put the ethanol industry and landowners on opposite sides. Iowa-based Summit Carbon Solutions wants to construct a $5.5 billion, 2,500-mile pipeline network. The lines would carry carbon emissions from over 50 ethanol plants in multiple Midwest states to storage deep underground in North Dakota. The company will apply for a permit in South Dakota on November 19, 2024. Supporters say the pipeline is crucial for developing future aviation fuel markets for the Midwest ethanol industry, which buys one-third of the nation’s corn. Opponents questioned the forced use of their property and raised concerns about possible ruptures releasing hazardous gas. 

Winter Flow Slowing in the Missouri River

Gavins Point Dam releases in South Dakota will be reduced in late November as flow support for navigation ends. Releases are currently at 32,000 cubic feet per second. “We will continue to make releases from Gavins Point Dam to provide flow support at a level of 500 cubic feet per second less than full service through the end of the navigation support flow system,” says John Remus, Chief of the Core of Engineers. “The flow support season will end on December 1.” Release reductions to the winter rate of 12,000 CFS are scheduled to begin around November 22. Releases will be reduced gradually until they reach a rate of 15,000 cubic feet per second. October runoff in the Missouri River basin above Sioux City, Iowa, was 0.5 million acre-feet, which is 43 percent of the average. About 95 percent of the Basin is either abnormally dry or in a drought.

U.S. Cattlemen’s Association Policy Meeting in December

The United States Cattlemen’s Association will host its 2024 Annual Meeting December 5-7 in San Antonio, Texas, at the InterContinental Hotel. Each year, USCA brings together its industry members and leaders together to discuss current policy and issues facing the industry. This year, USCA will host panel discussions on animal IDs, marketing, competition, livestock risk protection, and new and emerging technologies within the industry. “The USCA Annual Meeting is an opportunity for producers and members to come together and discuss the issues that will guide the organization for the year ahead,” says USCA President Justin Tupper. “Each year, the meeting serves as the guidepost for how and what USCA will focus on in terms of policy and issue priorities.” The Annual Meeting kicks off with a “Meet the Officers and Staff event on Thursday evening. The meeting gets busy on Saturday with a full day of panels from industry experts.

Farm-to-School Program Applications Now Open

The USDA is continuing its support for local foods in schools by opening applications for the 2025 Patrick Leahy (LAY-hee) Farm to School Grants. For the first time, USDA is allowing organizations to select the type of Farm to School Grant that best fits their needs by offering three different requests for applications. The Implementation Grant supports establishing or expanding comprehensive farm-to-school projects. The State Agency Grant helps state-level agencies implement local sourcing and agricultural education activities. The Turnkey Grant is for organizations interested in projects related to launching or enhancing farm-to-school activities, agriculture education, or edible gardens. Around the nation, K-12 schools serve meals to about 30 million children every school days. These meals provide critical nutrition to children and the foundation for our nation to have a healthier future. When local foods are incorporated into meals, it benefits the students, supply chains, and producers.

Updated Estimates of Renewable Diesel Through 2026

University of Illinois analysts looked into the future of renewable diesel production in the U.S. and saw some headwinds. Renewable diesel production capacity has exploded in recent years, increasing by more than three billion gallons. This substantially impacted fats and oils feedstock markets. However, the profitability of renewable diesel has taken a hit in the last year. The industry began to produce at levels greater than the demand ceiling set by the annual renewable volume obligations under the Renewable Fuel Standard. Farmdoc Daily says the bloom is off the renewable diesel boom that began in 2021. There’s a list of announced building projects that could add substantial production capacity in the future. However, none of these projects have broken ground and started construction. “Until there is confirmation of actual construction activity, it’s prudent to exclude the announced projects in projecting renewable diesel production capacity for 2027 or later,” the Farmdoc experts added.

Friday Watch List

Markets

USDA November WASDE Report and Crop Production at 11 a.m. CST

FAS World Markets and Trade Updates at 11:15 a.m. CST

CFTC Commitments of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CST

Weather

An upper-level system is developing a stronger low-pressure system in the Central and Southern Plains on Friday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms as well as continued heavy snow in Colorado and New Mexico. The rest of the country will be rather dry while Hurricane Rafael continues to sit in the Gulf and stay away from the U.S. coastline.

September Meat Exports Above 2023

September U.S. pork and beef exports were higher year-over-year. That’s according to data from USDA compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation. Pork exports are well-positioned to set annual volume and value records in 2024. September pork exports totaled 238,047 metric tons, up eight percent from last year, while value climbed six percent to $685 million. Pork exports through September were on a record pace to Mexico, as are shipments to Central America, Colombia, and several Caribbean Markets. Through the first three quarters of this year, pork exports were five percent above last year’s pace at 2.3 million metric tons, with the value seven percent higher at $6.36 billion. U.S. beef exports reached 103,980 metric tons in September, up five percent year-over-year, while export value rose six percent to $843.8 million. January-September exports increased five percent in value to $7.82 billion despite volume dropping by two percent to 960,814 metric tons.

Lower Ag GHG Emissions in 2022

Farming activities in the U.S. accounted for 10.5 percent of America’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2022. From 2021 to 2022, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions decreased from 681.6 to 663.6 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent and decreased from 10.8 percent to 10.5 percent as a share of the entire U.S. economy’s emissions. The Environmental Protection Agency estimated that in 2022, agriculture emitted 390.1 million metric tons as nitrous oxide emissions directly as nitrous oxide, 227 million metric tons of methane, 47.9 MMT directly as on-farm carbon dioxide, and indirectly emitted 29.7 MMT through electricity the agricultural sector uses. Ag practices that emit nitrous oxide include nitrogen fertilizer application and manure management. Major sources of agricultural methane emissions include enteric fermentation, manure management, and rice cultivation. The EPA has identified the industrial sector as the largest contributor to total greenhouse gas emissions at 26 percent, followed by transportation and commercial.

Two Ag Committee Incumbents Lose

The House and Senate Agriculture Committees will see changes to membership during the 2025 legislative session. Farm Policy News says at least two incumbent members, New York Representative Marcus Molinaro and Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, were not re-elected. Representative Molinaro had served on the committee since his election in 2022 and lost his race to Democrat Josh Riley. On the Senate Ag Committee side, incumbent Brown lost his race to Republican challenger Bernie Moreno. There were several incumbents who won re-election, including Deb Fischer, a Nebraska Republican who held on to her Senate seat, besting challenger Dan Osborn. Iowa Republican Zach Nunn held onto his House seat in Iowa’s Third Congressional District. Democratic Illinois Representative Eric Sorenson is returning for a second term, as is Angie Craig, a Minnesota Democrat. In New Mexico, Democrat Gabe Vasquez won a second term, and Representative Jahana Hayes won re-election to the U.S. House representing Connecticut.

Farm Bailout Bill Would Cost $21 Billion

Industry analysts say the Farm Assistance and Revenue Mitigation Act sponsored by Mississippi Representative Trent Kelly may be too much money for Congress. The estimated $21 billion cost might make things more difficult for a new farm bill. Kelly says his bill keeps farmers in operation despite high costs and lower commodity prices, and it’s supported by a dozen of America’s biggest farm groups. Analysts in a Farmdoc Daily blog estimate that for the major commodities with a specified payment rate calculation outlined in the legislation, the FARM Act would result in $21 billion in ad hoc support payments to farmers. The bill may also be interpreted by those on Capitol Hill as evidence of U.S. farm policy shortcomings, and that may delay work on the next farm bill into 2025. Kelly’s bill allows payments of up to $350,000 per farmer. The farm program typically sets a limit of $125,000 per farmer.

Treasury Expands Foreign Land Purchase Oversight

The U.S. Treasury Department issued a final rule that significantly expands its ability to review real estate transactions by foreign persons near more than 60 military bases across 30 states. The Treasury, as Chair of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), says the committee has the authority to review certain real estate transactions near specified military installations and to take the appropriate actions it deems necessary. Nearly 60 military installations will now be added to an existing list of military installations around which CFIUS has jurisdiction over real estate transactions and its jurisdiction will be extended around 10 existing installations. “We continue to use strong screening tools to advance America’s national security and protect our military installations from external threats,” says Janet Yellin, Secretary of the Treasury. She also says this final rule is a significant milestone in safeguarding critical U.S. military and defense installations.

Farmer Mac Income Jumps 23 Percent

The Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, or Farmer Mac, the nation’s secondary market provider that increases the accessibility of financing for agriculture and rural America, announced the recent fiscal quarter results. “Farm Mac delivered another solid quarter, demonstrating yet again the benefits of our successful efforts to continue to diversify revenue streams, taking advantage of our strong capital base and uninterrupted access to low-cost capital,” says Brad Nordholm, president and CEO of Farmer Mac. “Growth across our loan portfolio into newer lines of business and higher spread businesses continues to pay dividends through changing market cycles.” The third quarter ended on September 30, 2024, and net interest income was $86.8 million, compared to $87.6 million in the third quarter of 2023. Farmer Mac provided $2 billion in liquidity and lending capacity to lenders serving rural America. The core earnings in the report were $44.9 million, or $4.10 per diluted common share.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

FAS Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CST

FOMC meeting continues with interest rate decision at 1 p.m. CST followed by Fed Chair Powell press conference at 1:30 p.m. CST

Weather

An upper-level low in the Four Corners area is producing some heavy snow in Colorado and New Mexico early Thursday morning. Showers are forecast to expand across the southwestern Plains throughout the day with heavy rain and thunderstorms for west Texas up into Kansas. Showers continue over the Southeast as well.

Pre-Election Farmer Sentiment Bounces Back

October provided a surprising pre-election bounce in farmer sentiment as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer climbed to 115, 27 points above the September index. The biggest driver of the sentiment improvement was an increase in producers’ confidence in the future. The Future Expectations Index jumped 30 points to 124. The Current Conditions Index also rose in October but by a smaller amount. With a reading of 95, the Current Conditions Index confirmed that farmers think economic conditions this year are worse than last year and the lowest since 2015-2016, which were the early days of a multi-year downturn in the farm economy. Producers this month expressed some optimism that economic conditions will improve and not precipitate an extended downturn in the farm economy. For example, the percentage of producers who expect bad times in the upcoming year dropped from 73 percent in September to 53 percent in October.

Industry May See Brazil as Hub for SAF

Is Brazil already leading the pack in the race to produce sustainable aviation fuel? Farm Policy News says a global push to cut down carbon emissions from air travel has groups betting on Brazil to become a top global center for SAF. Developers are said to be considering putting plants in Brazil because it’s the world’s largest producer of ethanol, which can be used to produce SAF. Brazil also has an abundance of cheap crops to make biofuels, giving the South American country a leg up on competitors like the U.S. Many of Brazil’s supplies are reported to rank better in terms of carbon emissions, a key to meeting requirements for future SAF manufacturing. Organizations like Airbus, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and others put together a study on the topic, and they say preliminary data shows Brazil has the potential to produce over 13 billion gallons by 2030.

U.S. Grains Council Takes Roadshow to Mexico

Staff from the U.S. Grains Council recently traveled to Mexico for the 2024 Grain Handling and Storage Roadshow. They conducted a series of informative presentations on proper grain handling and storage methods that can preserve grain quality and save money throughout the supply chain. USGC Mexico Director Heidi Bringenberg and several others spoke to end-users of U.S. feed grains in several Mexican states. “We’re excited to have seen great attendance and active participation from feed millers and beef, swine, and poultry producers during the roadshow,” Bringenberg said. “That allowed the Council to share storage and handling techniques that prevent grain quality deterioration and demonstrate value.” The Council staff members said Mexico is U.S. agriculture’s biggest trading partner, and it’s important to show purchasers and producers in the country that American farmers aren’t resting on their laurels. “We always want to support and grow the Mexican market throughout the supply chain,” she added. 

Registration is Open for USDA’s 101st Ag Outlook Forum

The USDA says registration is open for the 101st Agricultural Outlook Forum. The event titled “Meeting Tomorrow’s Challenges, Today” will be held in Washington D.C. on February 27-28, 2025. Additionally, all Forum sessions will be live-streamed on a virtual platform. The Forum will feature a presentation on the 2025 outlook for the U.S. agricultural economy and trade by USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer. The program will also include a distinguished panel of guest speakers and a number of breakout sessions organized by USDA agencies that will explore a wide range of current issues. More than 100 experts from government, industry, and academia will provide insights on key topics like commodity and food price forecasts, farm income, U.S. and global agricultural trade, the future of biofuels, climate change strategies, and advancements in biotechnology. The in-person event will also feature exhibit booths by different USDA agencies providing information about recent USDA-funded innovations.

Food for Opportunity Launches

The USDA launched the Food for Opportunity Program, or FFO, designed to expand opportunities for non-traditional U.S. commodities to qualify for various international food assistance programs. Alexis Taylor, USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, announced the new pilot program managed by the Foreign Agricultural Service. FAS will solicit applicants to apply for FFO and provide non-traditional commodities to be tested at active McGovern-Dole International Food for Education and Child Nutrition Program projects. “The goal of Food for Opportunity is to assess the suitability of commodities for use in USDA international food assistance programs and to evaluate potential future uses,” Taylor says. In seeking stakeholder input through a Request for Information, USDA received 26 comments covering 44 commodities, foods, and items to assist with designing the FFO. In the weeks ahead, the FAS will solicit applicants to run the pilot program based on the input from the RFI.

Sheep Shearing Grants Available

The American Sheep Industry Association has once again set aside $15,000 in grants to assist developing shearers and mentors. There is a large and continuing need for sheep shearers across the U.S. Domestic shearers are becoming fewer, and it is increasingly difficult to bring international shearers into the U.S. Seeing the need for more shearers for both large and small sheep operations, the ASI Wool Council developed this grant program to incentivize the development of domestic shearers. The program will support shearers as they increase the quality of their shearing and the number of sheep they shear each day, thus working to build their income and longevity in the shearing industry. Additionally, as mentors provide developing shearers with education and an avenue to shear, they may also apply for assistance under the grant program. The grant will be given to ten developing shearers and/or mentors. For information, go to sheepusa.org.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

USDA Livestock and Meat International Trade Data at 11 a.m. CST

EIA weekly petroleum status report including ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CST

Weather

A front is moving from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley where showers will continue for Wednesday. A small tropical feature will bring some heavy rain to portions of the Southeast as well. An upper-level low is settling into the Four Corners region. Heavy snow is falling in Colorado and the southwestern Plains will see several days of precipitation before the low moves northeast this weekend.

Lame-Duck Farm Bill Will be Difficult

While the lame-duck session of Congress represents one last chance at a farm bill, industry experts say it would require compromise on a number of tricky issues. Farm Policy News says it would require House and Senate leaders to agree on spending in quite a few important areas. One report says Senate Ag Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow holds the key to finishing a farm bill this year. The question is whether she can work out a deal with the other major farm bill players. Some insiders say Stabenow would like one last farm bill completion as a legacy item as she isn’t running for re-election. An AgWeb report from Farm Journal says some long-time Washington contacts give the odds of getting a farm bill done at only 15 percent. A veteran farm lobbyist said the simple resolution is for Republicans to drop SNAP cut demands and Democrats to agree to higher reference prices.

Minnesota to Get SAF Plant Running by 2030

Moorhead (more head), Minnesota, will get a sustainable aviation fuel production facility up and running by 2030. A company called DG Fuels says it has patented a system to use agricultural and timber waste to produce low-carbon fuels. The plant will produce 193 million gallons of zero- or low-CO2 lifecycle emissions SAF every year, and production is slated to begin in 2030. Moorehead, in Clay County, Minnesota, is known for its productive farmland and abundant timber resources and stands to generate millions of dollars per year in additional on-farm income by converting corn stover and timber waste into a high-value SAF. The project will provide 650 quality jobs, offer a local community coordinator, and includes a comprehensive multi-million-dollar community benefits package that will enhance the county’s infrastructure, quality of life, and local strategic plan. “Adding value to our agricultural economy is a top priority,” says Moorehead Mayor Shelly Carlson.

Meaningful Assistance Could Be Coming to Farmers

The Farm Assistance and Revenue Mitigation (FARM) Act was introduced last month and sponsored by more than 40 members of Congress. It’s also endorsed by several of America’s largest commodity groups, including the National Sorghum Producers. The legislation is intended to meet farmers’ immediate financial needs through economic assistance for the 2024 crop year. The proposed payment structure utilizes per-acre cost of production to provide a payment that is 60 percent of economic loss on eligible acres. With respect to payment limitations, persons or entities that derive less than 75 percent of income from farming would be subject to a limitation of $175,000. For those with at least 75 percent of their income coming from farming, they would be subject to a limitation of $350,000. The National Sorghum Producers says the potential scale of payments has sparked conversation on Capitol Hill, and this is a step in the right direction.

Organizations Collecting Donations for Ranchers Hit by Wildfires

North Dakota rancher organizations are collecting donations, supplies, and labor to assist ranchers in the northwest part of the state who were devastated by wildfires in October. An estimated 120,000 acres were burned up by wildfires last month, with high winds of up to 78 miles per hour helping the fires to tear through the region. The damage was immense, with farmers and ranchers losing many head of cattle, stored feedstocks, fences, gates, hayfields, and crop fields. They also lost farmsteads, pastures, outbuildings, farmhouses, and equipment. “The investigations we are handling are ongoing and remain in the beginning stages,” says North Dakota State Fire Marshall Doug Nelson. “Early indications suggest no evidence of intentionally set fires at the scenes we have responded to.” He also says an official cause of origin report will be available when the investigation is complete. That usually takes between one to two months to wrap up.

Farm Credit System Income Up Seven Percent to $5.91 Billion

The Farm Credit System reported that combined net income was relatively stable at $1.98 billion for the third quarter of 2024, as compared with $2 billion for the third quarter of 2023. For the nine months ending on September 20, 2024, FCS’s combined net income increased 7.3 percent to $5.91 billion. That’s compared to $5.51 billion for the same period last year. “The System continued to achieve favorable results during the third quarter and first nine months of 2024,” says Tracey McCabe, President and CEO of the Federal Farm Credit Banks Funding Corporation. “Overall credit quality remains strong, despite an increase in non-accrual loans, but results going forward may be impacted by a more challenging agricultural economic and volatile political environment.” Increases in net interest income primarily resulted from higher levels of average earning assets, driven largely by increased loan volumes and, to a lesser extent, growth in investments held for liquidity.

Voting Open for NCBA National Anthem Contest

Four finalists have been selected in the 12th annual NCBA National Anthem Contest, sponsored by Norbrook. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association is inviting the public to vote for the winner through November 15. The four finalists are Jaci Dietrick of Oklahoma, Payton Goodman of Texas, Anah Higbie of Kansas, and Hayden Ladd of Michigan. Videos of the finalists are available for viewing and voting at convention.ncba.org. The public can vote once per day per person through November 15, and the winner will be announced on November 21. The winner will perform the “Star Spangled Banner” at the Opening General Session of CattleCon 2025 and will receive round trip airfare to San Antonio, Texas, a hotel room for three nights, complimentary convention registration, plus a pair of boots, jeans, and a shirt from Roper or Stetson. For more information, to register or reserve housing at CattleCon 2025, go to convention.ncba.org.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Trade Deficit at 7:30am CT

U.S. Election Day

Weather

A multi-low storm that has brought widespread heavy rain to the Southern Plains into the Midwest continues to push northeast through the Great Lakes Tuesday with heavy rain and thunderstorms continuing from the Mississippi Valley into the Midwest. Another storm system in the northern Rockies will be dropping south through the mountains Tuesday as well, with some showers into the Northern Plains.

China Pivot from US Farm Imports Bolsters it Against Trade War Risks

China's push to shift its food import sources since 2018 has put it in a better position to impose tit-for-tat tariffs on U.S. farm goods with less harm to its food security if trade friction with Washington flares after the U.S. presidential election. Reuters reports the threat of a trade war looms for China, the world's top importer of farm products such as soybeans and corn, with Republican candidate Donald Trump floating blanket 60% tariffs on Chinese goods in a bid to boost U.S. manufacturing. His opponent Kamala Harris, a Democrat, is also expected to confront China on trade. China’s pivot began in 2018, when Beijing slapped 25% tariffs on imports of U.S. soybeans, beef, pork, wheat, corn and sorghum, retaliating against duties imposed by the Trump administration on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods. China has decreased U.S. purchases, buying more grain from Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine and Australia, even as it boosts domestic production.