FAPRI Updates Baseline for U.S. Ag Markets

The University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute released its 2024 Baseline Update for U.S. agricultural markets. Increased supplies, a strong dollar, and several other factors have caused prices for multiple agricultural commodities to fall sharply from their 2022 peak levels. In the absence of new shocks to the weather, the macro-economy, or policy, projected prices will generally remain near current levels for the next five years. Some of the key results in the update include increased acreage and large yields that will mean a record 2024 U.S. soybean crop. Despite a significant jump in crush and a rebound in exports, end-of-year stocks will increase sharply. Record yield will result in the second consecutive 15 billion bushel corn crop this year. Given the projected reduction in prices for a broad range of crops and moderating production costs, there’s little incentive to sharply change crop acreage allocation in 2025.

USDA Launches Online Debt Consolidation Tool

The USDA launched a new Debt Consolidation Tool that allows U.S. agricultural producers to enter their farm operating debt and evaluate the potential savings that might come from debt consolidation. That consolidation could come from either a local lender or the Farm Service Agency. “Providing producers with options to structure their debt in a manner that affords them every opportunity to meet the goals of their agricultural operations is the best way to ensure the nation’s farmers and ranchers build financial equity and resilience,” says FSA Administrator Zach Ducheneaux. By combining multiple eligible debts into a single, larger loan, farmers may get more favorable payment terms like lower interest rates or lower payments. The tool can help farmers achieve financial viability by helping them identify potential savings that could be reinvested in their operations, retirement accounts, or college savings accounts. Producers can access the tool at farmers.gov.

NIAA Welcomes New Antibiotic Co-Chairs

The National Institute for Animal Agriculture welcomed two new co-chairs to its Antibiotics Council: Dr. Heather Fowler from the National Pork Board and Dr. Alexandra Medley from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The purpose of the Antibiotics Council is to seek to enhance an animal agriculture industry that’s aligned with judicious antibiotic use policies and practices. Dr. Fowler is the director of producer and public health at NPB, where she oversees public health as well as occupational safety and health issues as they relate to swine production in the United States. Dr. Medley is a veterinary epidemiologist currently serving as the Associate Director for Antimicrobial Resistance within the Division of Foodborne, Waterborne, and Environmental Diseases at the CDC. The Antibiotics Council is also hosting its annual Antibiotics Symposium. Co-Chairs have assembled a planning committee for the 14th Annual Antibiotics Symposium in Denver, Colorado, from November 19-21, 2024.

USDA Trade Mission to Vietnam, Southeast Asia

Alexis Taylor, USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, will lead a USDA trade mission to Vietnam from September 9-13. She’ll be joined at stops in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi by representatives from 58 agribusinesses and organizations and nine state governments that represent the diversity of U.S. agriculture. “Vietnam’s continued economic growth, ongoing reform, and young population have combined to create a dynamic and quickly evolving environment for high-quality and diverse American agricultural products,” says Taylor. “Our collaboration has secured market access for a variety of American products, including most recently stone fruit and grapefruit.” In 2023, the U.S. exported $3.1 billion worth of agricultural products to Vietnam. The U.S. holds a sizable market share in Vietnam across several commodities like cotton, soybeans, and distillers’ grains, along with consumer products like tree nuts, dairy, and fresh fruit. Participants will connect with several key importers in business-to-business meetings during the visit.

Clean Fuels Reacts to CARB Proposal

A proposed cap on soy- and canola-based biodiesel and renewable diesel could raise prices of fuel and goods for California consumers and set back decarbonization efforts by years. Those comments were submitted to the California Air Resources Board by Clean Fuels Alliance America. The recently proposed amendments to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard would put a 20 percent cap on credits for vegetable-oil-based fuel without sufficient scientific evidence to support such limitations. Clean Fuels and other industry stakeholders are urging the board to reconsider the proposed caps on vegetable oils in the LCFS in part because it will delay decarbonization and increase the cost to comply with California’s lofty greenhouse gas reduction goals. For every five years of delay, 13 times more emissions reductions will be required to have the same climate impact. Biodiesel and renewable diesel are responsible for 45 percent of the state’s progress to date under the LCFS.

Missouri Researchers Working on Protecting Cattle from Tick Diseases

University of Missouri researchers are working to develop the first-ever vaccine proven to protect cattle from a devastating tick-borne disease called bovine anaplasmosis. The research is vital to a state like Missouri, which has a $1.6 billion cattle industry. Bovine anaplasmosis infects the red blood cells of cattle and causes hundreds of millions in economic losses nationwide every year and almost $1 billion in worldwide losses. Roman Ganta, a University of Missouri researcher, led the study that created the new vaccine. The work involves modifying the pathogen that causes anaplasmosis in a lab. By deleting a specific gene and injecting the modified pathogen into cattle, the vaccinated cattle were successfully immunized against the disease. “I often receive calls from cattle producers who are excited about our research and want to know how soon they can get the vaccine,” Ganta says. “There is currently no widely available effective vaccine against the disease.”

Friday Watch List

Markets

Friday is first notice day for September grain contracts. The U.S. Commerce Department will release its PCE inflation index for July at 7:30 a.m. CDT and also July reports of U.S. personal incomes and consumer spending. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is due out at 9 a.m.

Weather

A strong cold front that brought areas of heavy rain to the central Corn Belt Thursday continues to press eastward for Friday. Showers may be more scattered and overall lighter than Thursday, but will favorably hit some areas with needed rain from Texas to Michigan. Isolated showers may also fill in across the South and Southeast, where drought has been growing lately.

USDA Forecasts an Increasing Trade Deficit in 2025

The USDA forecasted the agricultural trade deficit to increase sharply to a record $42.5 billion in the coming fiscal year. That compares to $30.5 billion this fiscal year, which ends September 30. The widening trade gap, a source of frustration for many farmers and ag-state lawmakers, reflects an expected $8 billion increase in agricultural imports in fiscal year 2025 to $212 billion and a $4 billion drop in exports to $169.5 billion. The decline is primarily driven by lower corn, soybean, and cotton prices, as well as lower volumes of beef. Horticultural exports are projected to rise by $1.2 billion to a record $41.5 billion due to higher exports across all categories. Ethanol exports are forecast at $4.3 billion, unchanged from the revised FY 2024 projection. Agricultural exports to Mexico are forecast at $29.2 billion, $100 million below the prior fiscal year. Exports to Canada are unchanged at $28.9 billion.

Deck Stacked Against American Biofuels

Growth Energy submitted comments to the California Air Resources Board criticizing the latest updates to California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard. Growth Energy says the changes unfairly single out American biofuels and make it hard for them to generate credits under the program. Specifically, Growth Energy objected to a proposed “sustainability certification” requirement, calling it “a double penalty for corn starch bioethanol.” Senior Vice President of Government Affairs Chris Bliley says the economic impact analysis acknowledges potential direct and indirect land use change is at least partially and potentially fully accounted for by the LUC scores added to crop-derived pathways. “This acknowledgment renders the need for a sustainability certification moot as potential LUC concerns for crop-based feedstocks are addressed,” he said. Farmers that produce feedstocks for biofuel production are required to use climate-smart practices to qualify for certification but still wouldn’t get any credit for the emissions reductions under the LCFS.

DEKALB Partners with the Field of Dreams Movie Site

DEKALB is proud to announce its new partnership as the official corn seed for the Field of Dreams movie site in Iowa. DEKALB corn surrounds the filming site of the iconic 1989 Field of Dreams baseball movie while it continues to make dreams come true for countless baseball fans around the world. Rahe (Ray) Farms of Dyersville has farmed the Field of Dreams movie site for 20 years and takes great pride in growing the corn surrounding one of the world’s most famous baseball fields. “It’s been an honor for our family to be able to farm the Field of Dreams Movie Site and grow DEKALB corn there,” says Andy Rahe. “It’s truly a one-of-a-kind experience, and it only makes sense to have the best corn brand in the world represented at the site.” A pathway took fans through the cornfield to the ballpark during MLB games in 2021 and 2022.

Brazil Beef Exports to Hit Records in 2024, 2025

Beef exports from Brazil are expected to reach record highs in both 2024 and 2025 amid strong demand from overseas buyers, a weakened local currency, and “challenges” expected from rival exporting countries. That’s according to an attaché report from the USDA office in Brazil. Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter, will ship a carcass weight equivalent of 3.575 million metric tons of meat this year. The agency says that will rise to 3.6 million tons in 2025. Exports account for 30 percent of all beef production in the South American country. “A relevant element that’s working in favor of the increased Brazilian beef production is that its main competitors, including the U.S., EU, and Argentina, are forecast to scale back beef production in 2024, opening up opportunities for Brazil,” USDA says. Slaughter is forecast to reach 48 million head in 2024 before dropping to 47.5 million head the following year.

Clean Fuels Wants Immediate 45Z Guidance

Clean Fuels Alliance America sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urging the agency to issue guidance, including safe harbors, to the 45Z Clean Fuels Production Credit by September 1. The new producer credit becomes available on January 1, 2025, as the existing blender credit expires. Clean Fuels’ letter emphasizes the difficulties that farmers, producers, and fuel marketers are facing in making the transition without guidance on the rules. “U.S. biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel producers are having difficulties finalizing feedstock contracts, securing capital flows, and meeting project deadlines without knowing the value of the credit,” says Clean Fuels in the letter. “The need for policy certainty is urgent.” Clean Fuels is requesting the Treasury to issue safe harbor provisions allowing taxpayers to rely on existing carbon lifecycle assessments, such as the GREET model, to calculate the 45Z credit until a final rule is in effect.

USDA Releases Updated Guidance on Labeling

The USDA announced the availability of updated guidelines that make recommendations to strengthen the documentation that supports animal-raising or environment-related claims on meat or poultry product labels. The action builds on the work USDA has already undertaken to protect consumers from false and misleading labels. “These updates will help level the playing field for businesses who are truthfully using these claims and ensure that people can trust the labels when they buy meat and poultry products,” says Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack. Animal-raising claims like “Raised Without Antibiotics” or “Grass-Fed” and environmental claims like “Raised Using Regenerative Agriculture Practices” are voluntary marketing claims detailing certain aspects of how the animals are raised or how the producers maintain and improve the environment. The Food Safety and Inspection Service reviews the evidence to support these claims that can only be included on meat and poultry labels once they’ve been approved by the agency.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report is due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Thursday, the same time as weekly U.S. jobless claims and updates of second-quarter GDP and the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. The Energy Department's weekly report of natural gas storage is set for 9:30 a.m.

Weather

A strong cold front will continue to work through the Plains Thursday while also providing a few marginally severe storms across the western Midwest Thursday afternoon into the evening. Some of the strongest storms may favor Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin.

Judge Blocks Rule Allowing Farmworkers to Join Unions

A federal judge blocked the U.S. Labor Department from enforcing a rule in 17 states that would prevent agricultural employers from retaliating against migrant workers with H-2A visas for joining labor unions. Employers also couldn’t retaliate for workers organizing against wage theft, trafficking, and other abuses. Courthouse News says the judge sided with states in a lawsuit against the Labor Department and granted a preliminary injunction. He ruled the regulation would unconstitutionally give foreign agricultural workers rights that Congress never wanted to provide. Judge Lisa Wood found the rule violates the National Labor Relations Act, a federal law that allows certain employees to unionize. Ag laborers are explicitly excluded from the law’s definition of “employee” and aren’t entitled to collective bargaining rights. Judge Wood wrote that by implementing the final rule, the DOL exceeded its general authority constitutionally afforded to agencies. The rule was supposed to combat abusive working conditions for employees.

U.S. Wheat Associates Applauds Drought-Tolerant Wheat Approval

U.S. Wheat Association commended the USDA for its thorough, science-based process resulting in the deregulation of the HB4 drought-tolerant trait from Bioceres Crop Solutions. The farmer leaders of USW are confident that the trait has the potential to deliver significant producer and consumer benefits. Although USDA’s ruling clears the regulatory pathway for the cultivation of HB4 wheat in the U.S., there are several additional steps needed before those benefits are realized and HB4 is grown commercially. “Wherever wheat is grown in the world, drought takes its toll on yields and quality, so an innovation like HB4 holds a lot of interest for growers like me,” says USW Past Chair Michael Peters. “With global wheat demand hitting new records almost every year, there is concern about variable production.” In addition to FDA approval in 2022, the company received regulatory approval for food and feed use in Nigeria, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, and South Africa.

Political Promises to Lower the Price of Food

The latest results were released from the Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy survey on the question of whether consumers and voters believe those in political power can address high food prices. Farm Doc Daily from the University of Illinois says concerns about the cost of food remain a priority for consumers and voters, and the recent emphasis on food prices by both presidential candidates demonstrates the issue’s continued relevance. Farmdoc found most respondents thought that political parties could help lower food prices and grocery bills. Not surprisingly, most respondents who identified with one of the major parties thought that only their party would be successful in lowering prices. Those who identified as independent or aligned with a third party were less confident politicians could help lower food prices. The results of the survey underscore that consumers do believe politicians can help lower the cost of food, but the “who” can is highly partisan.

USDA Grants to Strengthen the Specialty Crop Industry

The USDA is awarding $82.3 million to 65 recipients to enhance the competitiveness of specialty crops, including fruits, vegetables, tree nuts, and nursery crops, and help support the industry’s producers. From market development to consumer education to research, these programs expand markets, increase the competitiveness of the specialty crop industry, and increase access to specialty crops for consumers. “This funding will strengthen specialty crop production and markets and ensure Americans have access to fresh, locally grown fruits, vegetables, tree nuts, and more,” says USDA Undersecretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs Jenny Moffitt. “These programs are furthering our efforts to build a more resilient food system, one where consumers and producers have more, new, and better market opportunities, which helps farmers and their communities prosper.” Through the Specialty Crop Block Grant Program, USDA is awarding $72.9 million to 54 states and territories, as well as $9.4 million to 11 projects in multiple states.

Summer Heat Building Ahead of Labor Day Weekend

Temperatures are soaring across much of the country during the final week of August before the Labor Day holiday weekend arrives, with a threat of downpours and severe weather from Texas to the Carolinas. AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok says the large heat dome of high pressure that’s building from the Midwest to parts of the East will break down this week and over the weekend as a strong cold front slides to the southeast. “A strong cold front will move through the eastern third of the nation over the holiday weekend,” he says. “Showers and a few strong, gusty thunderstorms are likely,” he says. “The big travel day on Friday will feature heavy showers and gusty thunderstorms from the Midwest to the South-Central Plains along the front.” Meantime, a heat wave will continue baking the Midwest, with temperatures 8-14 degrees above historical averages, and will combine with high humidity.

Global Diary Top 20 Report

RaboResearch’s annual Global Dairy Top 20 report reveals a year of modest gains and strategic shifts within the dairy sector. The report, which analyzes the financial performance of the world’s leading dairy companies, indicates a slight 0.3 percent increase in combined turnover in U.S. dollar terms, a stark contrast to the previous year’s 8.1 percent growth. The report attributes the deceleration in revenue growth to lower milk prices in 2023 compared to 2022. This trend particularly affected European cooperatives, and seven companies worldwide reported lower revenues in their local currencies. In the U.S., dairy companies are focusing on internal growth rather than acquisitions, with over $7 billion planned for new plant construction and expansions from 2023 through 2026, mainly in cheese production. Milk production is expected to grow again in 2025 after three straight years of stagnation. This trend contrasts with other regions where plant closures are more likely.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

The U.S. Energy Department's weekly energy inventory report will be out at 9:30 a.m. CDT. Grain traders continue to monitor weather in the U.S. and South America and financial traders will watch for the PCE inflation index, due out Friday morning.

Weather

A weak front and disturbance moving through the Midwest will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday. Some of those could be severe, tapping into the expansive heat and humidity in the region. A new front is moving into the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains, which should produce scattered showers of its own, and is bringing in a burst of much cooler air.

Canadian Rail Employees Go Back to Work

The Canada International Relations Board (CIRB) issued an order imposing binding arbitration between the two sides. The CIRB also ordered that no rail work stoppage, whether a lockout or strike, can occur during the arbitration process. As a result, work has resumed on both the Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) networks as of Monday morning, August 26. While railroad workers have returned to the job, the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference has vowed to challenge the ruling in court. “Of course, it’s preferable for the two parties to have the latitude to arrive at an agreement themselves,” says Mike Steenhoek (STEEN-hook), executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition. It's appropriate that the federal government intervened on behalf of the country and all those, like U.S. agriculture, that depend on a predictable, reliable cross-border supply chain. “We look forward to a return to normalcy very soon,” says Steenhoek.

NPPC Announced New Investment in Young Advocates

The National Pork Producers Council unveiled a new Strategic Investment Program called “Young Pork Advocates” for young people ages 18-22. The initiative aims to empower young advocates within the pork industry. At the 2024 World Pork Expo, NPPC hosted the inaugural Young Pork Advocates Issues Meet contest, which fostered lively discussions on key industry topics. Emma Kuhns of Illinois won the meet. “The top reason students should get involved is because of the invaluable network connections being made that are a laugh pad for a successful career,” Kuhns says. For an annual investment of $50, young people get regular communications on pork industry issues, opportunities to apply for scholarships, communications and advocacy training, and more. “Leveraging the potential and passion of your youth is critical for the future of the pork industry,” says NPPC President Lori Stevermer. Young people interested in the program can go to nppc.org for more information.

NIAA Accepting Applications for Leadership Training

The National Institute for Animal Agriculture is accepting nominations for the fourth Cohort of the Advanced Training for Animal Agriculture Leaders. Nominations are due November 17. The 16-month leadership program blends in-person and virtual working sessions to focus on four areas of development: critical thinking, leadership development, connecting and relating skills, and operational excellence. Members of the program work together on applied-learning projects that will incorporate interest in animal agriculture. “It’s been a true gift to learn from and collaborate with the other community groups, organizations, and associations represented within this leadership cohort,” says Sarah Coleman, Kentucky Horse Council and member of Cohort 3. “To learn about so many things in the agriculture space is incredible and it’s reassuring that so many of us are working to ensure that agriculture is sustainable in every facet of the word.” More information about how to nominate someone or apply is available at animalagriculture.org

USDA Releases Cattle on Feed and Egg Production Reports

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more totaled 11.1 million head on August 1, 2024. The inventory level was slightly above August 1, 2023. Placements in feedlots totaled 1.70 million head, six percent higher than in 2023. Net placements for the month were 1.65 million head. Marketings of fed cattle in July totaled 1.86 million head, eight percent above the same time in 2023. Other disappearances during July totaled 1.86 million head, 14 percent below last year. United States egg production totaled 9.06 billion during July 2024, two percent below last year. Production included 7.76 billion table eggs and 1.30 billion hatching eggs. The average number of layers during July totaled 370 million, down three percent from last year. July egg production per 100 layers was 2,451 eggs, slightly higher than July of last year.

Building Ethanol Markets in Africa, Middle East

The U.S. Grains Council escorted a group of key ethanol industry stakeholders from Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, and the United Arab Emirates on a tour of U.S. ethanol facilities. The goal of the tour is to help advance biofuel exports to Africa and the Middle East. USGC’s regional director for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa says providing market intelligence and a consistent information flow about the U.S. biofuels industry, supply and demand, transportation, blending and quality issues, and exposing Middle East and African players to the U.S. ethanol industry will hopefully catalyze future demand of sustainable aviation fuel and U.S. bioethanol in the region. The countries represented examples of different stages of ethanol adoption in the region. For example, Nigeria has consistently been the largest market for U.S. ethanol, mainly for industrial use. The Council’s efforts there and in Ghana include fuel policy authorities and possibly developing E10 blending mandates.

Colorado Officials Releasing Even More Wolves

Colorado Parks and Wildlife intends to release more gray wolves into the exact zone where they’ve already killed dozens of sheep and cattle in Grand and Summit counties. Colorado Politics Dot Com says in just over four months, the death toll for livestock killed by wolves in the area is now dozens. Officials estimate that number comes from nine out of the ten wolves released last December. Most of the livestock were likely killed by just two wolves, a mating pair that produced three pups. Reid DeWalt of Colorado Parks and Wildlife said last Friday that they’re considering the same zone for their next release of wolves. “CPW’s wolf restoration plan says the wolves would be released in two zones: a northern zone where the first group was released, and a southern zone.,” says DeWalt. DeWalt told the commission that the next release next release would again be in the northern zone.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

A report on U.S. consumer confidence in August is scheduled at 9 a.m. CDT Tuesday. DTN Meteorologist John Baranick and Lead Analyst Todd Hultman are speaking at the Farm Progress show in Boone, Iowa, on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday morning in building 1118. Come say hi.

Weather

A cold front will provide scattered showers and storms across the Midwest on Tuesday with some storms severe. Some of the strongest storms may target Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Michigan, northern Indiana, and northern Ohio. Hot temperatures are expected out ahead of the cold front from the eastern Midwest into the Southern Mississippi Valley.

Canadian Government Steps Into the Rail Strike

Canadian freight trains could be running again within days. Farm Policy News says the government forced the two major railroads into binding arbitration with their labor union. The move should turn aside what would potentially trigger serious economic consequences in Canada and the U.S. if trains don’t run for a long time. Labor Minister Steve MacKinnon took action only 16 hours after Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Kansas City locked out their employees over an impasse in labor negotiations. Both railroads say they’ll get trains moving as quickly as possible. “The government wanted to give negotiation every chance to succeed on its own, but the economic risk was ultimately too great to allow the lock-outs to continue,” MacKinnon says. Canadian National says it lifted the lockout on Thursday to expedite the economic recovery. CPKC says it’s prepared to resume operations but claims the Teamsters didn’t want to discuss the matter.

South Dakota State Supreme Court Sides with Landowners

The South Dakota Supreme Court ruled that Summit Carbons Solutions can’t build a carbon-capture pipeline through the state as the situation stands right now. The court ruled that Summit hasn’t proven it’s a “common carrier.” A common carrier transports goods and services for the public in exchange for a fee, such as electricity in a transmission line. Common carriers are allowed to use eminent domain to gain land access from unwilling landowners. The State Supreme Court ruled Summit hasn’t proven to lower courts that it’s holding itself out to the general public as transporting a commodity for hire. Landowners who oppose the project applauded the decision as a victory. However, South Dakota Searchlight says the company remains confident it can go back to the lower courts and prove its case. Summit Carbon Solutions is developing an $8 billion pipeline project to transport CO2 to underground storage in North Dakota.  

Company Brings Virtual Fencing for Livestock

Halter, a New Zealand company, has brought its virtual fencing technology for livestock to the U.S. “Halter technology is a powerful system that helps users precisely manage pasture to lift the performance of your grazing animals,” says Craig Piggot (PIG-uht), founder and CEO of Halter. The Halter app allows users to establish virtual fences anywhere on their land. Ranchers can see a heatmap of grazing activity through the app and take advantage of grass growth by moving cattle to optimize the best grazing opportunities for the animals. Cows are trained to respond to the collar’s guidance cues as they approach the virtual fence. Users can create new fences from the app on their mobile phones and herd animals into new pasture areas by using sound and vibration cues generated through the app. “Ranchers can quickly put cattle where the grass is without moving fences or physically herding their cattle,” Piggot adds.

Sorghum Interest is Growing

Sorghum is an ancient cereal grain that holds a lot of potential. “We see sorghum as so much more than just another crop,” says Nate Blum, CEO of Sorghum United, dedicated to advancing sorghum cultivation globally. The rising interest in sorghum is being driven largely by its suitability to hotter, drier growing conditions, which makes it a climate-smart crop. As weather patterns continue to grow more unpredictable, many farmers appear to be turning to sturdy, drought-resistant sorghum to stabilize and boost yields. “Sorghum actively replenishes the soil and environmental capital,” Blum adds. “It requires few external inputs, fixes soil nitrogen, and helps prevent erosion.” Beyond that, sorghum also holds emerging market opportunities. As the gluten-free trend continues growing, demand for specialty products is rising. The grain can be milled into gluten-free flour, popped like corn, turned into syrups and edible oils, brewed for beer, and used as cattle feed.

USDA Makes Payments to Producers Impacted by Hurricane Debby

The USDA announced the counties that have triggered for payment under the Hurricane Insurance Protection-Wind Index endorsement for Hurricane Debby. Approved insurance providers have 30 days to issue producer payments. Under HIP-WI, producers will receive over $200 million in indemnities for hurricane-related losses from Hurricane Debby. “The hurricane caused devastating damage across the southeast and impacted many agricultural operations,” says Risk Management Agency Administrator Marcia Bunger. “The RMA’s hurricane and tropical storm endorsement provides added protection for producers who want more coverage options. We understand the importance of timely payments that help producers overcome natural disasters and assist with recovery efforts.” Estimated indemnities include over $12 million for Florida, $45.6 million in Georgia, $97.8 million in North Carolina, and $54.3 million for South Carolina. Producers do not need to file a claim to receive an indemnity payment under the HIP-WI program. If a county is triggered, indemnity payments are automatically issued.

Farm Credit Delivers Support to Young, Beginning, and Small Farmers

Farm Credit System institutions made almost 133,000 loans to young, beginning, or small U.S. producers in 2023, delivering on their critical mission to support rural communities and agriculture. A new Farm Credit Administration Report underscores Farm Credit’s commitment to the next generation of agricultural producers through strategic lending and support initiatives. “Supporting young, beginning, and small farmers is central to Farm Credit’s mission and vital for the future of American agriculture,” says Todd Van Hoose, President and CEO of the Farm Credit Council. “As the farm economy became even more difficult in 2023, Farm Credit had nearly $113 billion in new loans to young, beginning, or small U.S. producers.” For example, in 2023, the Farm Credit institutions made over 47,000 loans totaling $11.7 billion to young producers who are 35 or younger. Almost 66,000 loans were made to producers with ten years or less of experience, totaling nearly $18.1 billion.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will be digesting Friday's news that rail service was restored in Canada and the latest comments from Fed Reserve Chairman Powell. The chairman said, "The time has come for policy to adjust," meaning a cut in interest rates is likely at the September Fed meeting. A report on U.S. durable goods orders for July will be out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Monday. USDA's report of weekly export inspections is set for 10 a.m., followed by the weekly Crop Progress report at 3 p.m.

Weather

Heat has filled in to most of the country east of the Rockies and will be sweltering for some areas. It will also fuel potential for severe storms across the northern Corn Belt, particularly in eastern South Dakota into Wisconsin. All hazards are possible with the storms, but wind and hail will be most likely.

Canadian Rail Strike Begins

A disruption in rail service is in effect between Canada’s Class One railways and the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference Union. As a result, the Canola Council of Canada says service has ground to a halt, impacting all segments in the value chain. With farmers already harvesting some grains in parts of Canada and the U.S., the work stoppage couldn’t have come at a worse time for the grains sector. Grain elevators and oilseed processors are reducing capacity and curbing production, resulting in delays in executing customer contracts and farmers are losing their ability to sell their commodities. In turn, that affects their ability to cash flow their operations. This will further damage the reputations of farmers in both countries as reliable suppliers and risks future exports and loss of market share to competitors. Given the lack of progress, ag groups want Canada’s government to send both groups to binding arbitration.

North American Cattle Leaders Hold Joint Meeting

The Canadian Cattle Association hosted the third 2024 meeting with its North American counterparts, including the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and CNOG, their Mexican counterparts. The groups met on the sideline of the Canadian Beef Industry Conference and discussed the challenges and opportunities facing beef producers across Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. Topics this year included trade policy, the upcoming U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement review in 2026, and international engagement on microbial resistance. “NCBA values our relationships with our Canadian and Mexican counterparts and our ability to come together as allies to tackle issues facing North American producers,” says NCBA President Mark Eisele (EYES-lee). “In addition to discussing international trade and animal health concerns, we’re also standing together to push back against lab-grown proteins.” He also says the lab-grown protein companies are trying to capitalize on the incredible reputation of real beef. The next meeting will be in San Antonio, Texas, in 2025.

Sorghum Producers Elect New Chair

The National Sorghum Producers Board of Directors elected Amy France of Scott City, Kansas, as chairwoman at the board’s annual August budget and board meeting. France says it’s a true honor to serve as chairwoman of the NSP. “Just as in farming, many fine people have blazed a trail before me so that we can achieve the things we do today,” France says. “I’m grateful for past leadership and their examples and look forward to continuing to carry the torch for sorghum and agriculture in this most important time.” She operates a family farm in the semi-arid western Kansas region and produces grain sorghum, corn, wheat, and black Angus cattle. She and her husband, Clint, are third-generation farmers who work along with their oldest son. France has served on the NSP board of directors since 2018. The 2024-2025 term begins on October 1. View the entire leadership team at SorghumGrowers.com.

New Video on Public Lands Movement During FMD Outbreak

The American Sheep Industry Association worked with the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and other stakeholders to develop movement decision criteria guidance during a potential FMD outbreak. The video is for federal land grazers and the unique challenges they would face in a food-and-mouth outbreak. “For years, the resources prepared have focused on mitigating losses on private land,” says NCBA’s Kaitlynn Glover. “Now, with help from a number of organizations, we have comprehensive resources to help public lands ranchers whose livestock may be far from any infected herd have predictability for their operations in the event of an FMD outbreak.” Livestock producers are now more prepared than ever to work with federal agencies and health officials to make movement decisions. A five-minute video describes the project and resources and can be viewed on the Secure Sheep and Wool Supply and Secure Beef Supply websites under the Public Land Grazing pages.

Imports of Animal Fats and Processed Oils Have Skyrocketed

U.S. imports of animal fats, greases, and processed oils, including used cooking oil, skyrocketed to almost five billion in 2023 from 2.2 billion pounds in 2022. The surge in imports has been driven by rising domestic production of biomass-based diesel – fuels derived from animal fats and vegetable oils – to meet U.S federal and state policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These policies sparked new demand for animal fats, processed oils, and grease and have boosted imports, especially processed oil imports commonly known as used cooking oil. Process imports have doubled to three billion pounds from 2022 to 2023 as China emerged as the top supplier. U.S. tallow imports also have increased largely on expanded sourcing from Australia, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina. As biofuel use grows, the structural shift in biomass-based diesel production and import markets is expected to affect domestic use and trade flows of animal fats and vegetable oils.

July Milk Output Declines Modestly

USDA says milk production in the 24 largest producing states fell slightly year-over-year in July. Output was down 0.2 percent from the same month a year earlier to 18.2 billion pounds. USDA says per-cow production rose two pounds to 2,047 pounds, and the number of milk cows on dairy farms was reported at 8.88 million, down 31,000 head from July 2023. The agency revised its June milk output levels to 17.9 billion pounds, down 1.5 percent year-over-year. In the three months ending on June 30, the total milk herd totaled 9.33 million head, down from 9.41 million a year earlier. Production per cow fell to 6,151 pounds from 6,164 pounds in the same timeframe last year. The government report also says milk output in the quarter through June fell 1.1 percent to 57.4 billion pounds. Total milk production in the U.S. reached 18.9 billion pounds during July, down 0.4 percent from July 2023.

Friday Watch List

Markets

U.S. new home sales for July will be released at 9 a.m. CDT. USDA's monthly cattle on-feed and cold storage reports are due out at 2 p.m. Grain traders will be closely watching developments surrounding the halt to rail service in Canada that is also affecting U.S. rail service and making grain elevators reluctant to take in grain until they can be confident about making shipments. Fed-watchers will be following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday, looking for any clues on what the Fed will decide in September.

Weather

A weak front may produce some showers from Colorado to Wisconsin on Friday but will be only spotty where it occurs. A system moving into the Pacific Northwest will spread more showers through the Northern Plains and eventually the Canadian Prairies later Friday afternoon and evening. Heat that has been stuck in Texas all week, is starting to spread north.

Shippers Lose STB Rate Review Option

Grain elevators and others who move smaller shipping volumes likely won’t get a quicker process to settle rate differences with railroads after a federal appeals court ruling. The Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals says the Surface Transportation Board exceeded its authority by trying to streamline rate dispute settlements between railroads and shippers. The nation’s largest railroads sued over the new rate rules, and the appeals court found in their favor. Great American Crop Dot Com says the ruling will limit the ability of shippers to challenge railroad freight rates in situations involving smaller shipping volumes. Major ag groups and other industries that rely on railroads to remove commodities lost their arguments defending the STB Rule. Union Pacific Railroad filed the lawsuit, along with the American Association of Railroads, which lobbies for major railroad companies. Federal statutes require railroads to establish reasonable rates when they do not have effective competition.

EPA Releases New Herbicide Strategy

The Environmental Protection Agency released its final Herbicide Strategy, calling it an “unprecedented step” in protecting over 900 federally endangered and threatened species from the potential impacts of herbicides. EPA will use the strategy to identify measures to reduce the amount of herbicide exposure to these species when it registers new herbicides and when it reevaluates registered herbicides under a process called registration review. The final strategy incorporates a wide range of stakeholder input, ensuring EPA not only protects species but also preserves a wide range of pesticides for farmers and growers. “Finalizing our first major strategy for endangered species is a historic step in EPA meeting its Endangered Species Act obligations,” says Jake Li, EPA’s Deputy Assistant Administrator for Pesticide Programs. “By identifying protections earlier in the pesticide review process, we are far more efficiently protecting listed species from herbicides and reducing the burdensome uncertainty for the farmers who use them.”

Soy Growers Wary of EPA Herbicide Strategy

American soybean growers are worried about the feasibility of implementation and the impacts of the Environmental Protection Agency’s final Endangered Species Act Herbicide Strategy. Josh Gackle, president of the American Soybean Association, says while there are improvements to the final Herbicide Strategy over what was first proposed, they’re disappointed that EPA chose to leave so many opportunities on the table to make this strategy workable for farmers. “We remain concerned with the complexity of this framework and whether growers and applicators will be able to clearly understand how to implement it,” Gackle says. ”We also have concerns as to the type and affordability of runoff mitigations EPA has provided, the potential distance of spray drift buffers, and concerns with several other requirements.” The Herbicide Strategy will cost U.S. farmers billions of dollars to implement and could result in significant new hurdles to farmers accessing and using herbicides in the future.

World Dairy Expo Taking Extra Steps to Protect Cattle

Valuable purebred cattle are heading to Madison, Wisconsin, in October to take part in the 57th Annual World Dairy Expo. As one of the premier dairy shows in the U.S., the Expo will take extra precautions to ensure H5N1 doesn’t infect the animals. The Wisconsin State Farmer says the Expo staff are in contact with USDA and the state Department of Agriculture so that everyone understands what the requirements are to take cattle onto the Alliant Energy Center show grounds in Madison. “There will be a World Dairy Expo, and we will have cow classes,” says Expo Manager Laura Herschleb, now in her third year of managing the event. The show runs October 1-4 this year and typically features around 2,500 head of dairy cattle. Herschleb says biosecurity is always important, and they’re placing greater emphasis on it this year. Veterinarians will be on the Expo Showgrounds during the entire event.

Study Shows the Value of Livestock Grazing

A study from the USDA’s Agricultural Research Service confirmed the value of livestock grazing as a tool to protect western rangelands from wildfires. The Public Lands Council, which represents ranchers who hold federal grazing permits, hailed the research as more proof of the important role livestock grazing plays in protecting our natural resources. “In a year where wildfire has run rampant across the West, this study is a great reminder that livestock grazing must be an integral part of land management and wildfire mitigation,” says PLC President Mark Roeber. The study demonstrated that grazing supports the reduction of fire fuels that pose huge risks in sagebrush ecosystems that are prone to fire. By applying targeted grazing in these landscapes, managers can create effective fuel breaks to slow fire activity and improve suppression efforts. Kaitlynn Glover, PLC Executive Director, says officials should remain confident in their partnership with public lands ranchers.  

Farm Rescue Gets Own Farm Progress Show Booth for First Time

Farm Rescue is a nonprofit organization that provides free planting, haying, harvesting, and other types of assistance to farmers who’ve experienced a major illness, injury, or natural disaster. For the first time, Farm Rescue will have its own exhibit space at the Farm Progress Show on August 27-29 in Boone, Iowa. Generous support has made it possible to achieve greater visibility. “Our biggest challenge is awareness,” says Farm Rescue Marketing Program Manager Dan Erdmann. “This is a great opportunity for Farm Rescue to share our story and message of support to the broader farm community.” He says this is an opportunity for Farm Rescue that they’ve never had before. Farm Rescue’s display will include farm equipment from the nonprofit’s fleet that readily serves the fieldwork needs of farmers and their families in times of crisis. Equipment on display will include planting and harvesting implements and a semi-truck. For more information, go to farmrescue.org.  

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report is due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Thursday, the same time as weekly U.S. jobless claims and an update of the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. U.S. existing home sales for July will be out at 9 a.m., followed by the U.S. Energy Department's weekly report of natural gas storage is at 9:30 a.m.

Weather

A small system is pushing a cold front through the eastern Dakotas down to western Nebraska early Thursday morning. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are found in the Red River Valley as well as the Nebraska-Kansas border area. While storms are forecast to diminish in the south Thursday morning, they may refire as the front stalls out with the northern cluster expanding into the Upper Midwest by the evening. Some of these storms could be stronger and bring locally heavy downpours.

American Ag Groups Call on Canadian Officials to Head of Strike

Groups like the National Corn Growers Association urged Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resolve a dispute between Canada’s railway executives and union leaders that could lead to a strike. A work stoppage there could interrupt rail service into the U.S. “If a strike shuts down rail service from Canada into the U.S., it will adversely impact America’s farmers who rely on rail to ship goods between the two countries,” says Harold Wolle (WOOL-lee), NCGA President. “We strongly encourage Prime Minister Trudeau, the Teamsters, and Canadian rail workers to do everything possible to avoid such a strike.” Canada is the third-largest destination for U.S. ag exports and the second-largest source of agricultural imports. The biggest concern for corn growers is a strike that could interrupt shipments of fertilizer imports and exports of ethanol, corn, and byproducts used as animal feed. Canadian law says officials can order all parties into binding arbitration.

Farmers, Ranchers Required to File Ownership Information

In 2021, Congress passed the Corporate Transparency Act, requiring businesses to report the identity of their owners. The goal is a simple one: to prevent crimes by knowing the identity of corporation owners. That means many small businesses like farms and ranches are required to comply with this. Under the Act, companies with 20 or fewer employees are required to report information about their beneficial owners, or the individuals who own at least 25 percent of the entity’s ownership interest, exercise substantial control over the entity, or receive a substantial economic benefit from the assets of the reporting entity. In more basic terms, you are a beneficial owner if you own at least 25 percent of a company, control or make major decisions for the company, or receive substantial earnings for the company. Many cattle raisers may be impacted by this law. For more information about the requirement, go to fincen.gov.    

USDA Accepts Over 2.2 Million Acres of Land in Conservation Programs

The USDA is accepting offers for more than 2.2 million acres from agricultural producers and private landowners through this year’s Grassland, General, and Continuous Conservation Reserve Program sign-ups administered by the Farm Service Agency. With the accepted acres, enrollment is very near the 27 million CRP acreage cap. “The popularity of our Conservation Reserve Programs, including the significant success of the Grassland Conservation Reserve Program and nearing the overall CRP acreage cap is a testament to the commitments made by the farmers, ranchers, and landowners we serve to mitigate the impacts of climate change by conserving, protecting, and enhancing our natural resources,” says FSA Administrator Zach Ducheneaux. “It’s through all of FSA’s conservation programs that we are able to work directly with agricultural producers to implement climate-smart conservation practices that ultimately benefit everyone.” Producers can still participate in CRP through the Continuous CRP signup at their local USDA service center.

Clean Fuels is Disappointed in the CARB Proposal

Clean Fuels Alliance America expressed disappointment in the California Air Resource Board’s proposed amendments to its Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). If adopted, these changes would impose caps on credits for soy- and canola-based biodiesel without sufficient scientific evidence to support such limitations. By restricting credit generation for these low-carbon alternatives, CARB risks unfairly disadvantaging biodiesel and renewable diesel, which are proven solutions that reduce emissions today while supporting sustainable farming and rural economies. Limiting biodiesel and renewable diesel in favor of technologies that will not be fully scalable for many years, even by CARB’s own projections, threatens both environmental progress and innovation. “These proposed amendments impose significant restrictions on vegetable oil feedstocks, hindering the ability of clean fuels to effectively decarbonize the heavy-duty transportation sector,” says Jeff Earl, director of government affairs at Clean Fuels. “They induce stricter standards for these fuels than those applied to others, even petroleum.”

TFI Announced 2024 4R Sinners

The Fertilizer Institute has announced the selection of two agricultural retailers and their partnering farmers as the 2024 4R Advocates. These four individuals are being recognized for their exceptional commitment to implementing fertilizer management practices based on the principles of 4R Nutrient Stewardship, which have demonstrated significant economic and environmental benefits. “Our 2024 4R Advocates are at the forefront of environmental stewardship,” says TFI President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch. “Their commitment to the 4Rs – right source, rate, time, and place – is crucial for optimizing crop yield and sustainability, ensuring our ability to continue feeding the crops that feed the world.” Now in its 13th year, the 4R Advocate program highlights the in-field successes of these best management practices. The advocates collectively manage diverse cropping systems across multiple states and will participate in various TFI outreach efforts. For information on the 4R advocates and 4R Nutrient Stewardship, go to tfi.org.

CattleCon 2025 Registration is Now Open

Registration is now open for CattleCon 2025, which is in San Antonio, Texas, February 4-6. This annual event is where the beef industry meets to conduct business, attend educational sessions, experience engaging speakers, and enjoy family fun. “CattleCon is the biggest industry event of the year,” says Mark Eisele (EYES-lee), president of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. “Cattle producers from across the country will gather to make decisions, network, learn, and have some fun.” For those arriving early, there will be an immersive grazing management workshop and tour on Monday, February 3. The pre-convention tour is tailored for cattle producers aiming to deepen their expertise in effective grazing strategies. CattleCon officially kicks off on Tuesday, February 4, and the cattle industry will be hard at work guiding both Beef Checkoff and NCBA policy programs. Several registration options are available. For more information or to register and reserve housing, go to convention.ncba.org.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

The U.S. Energy Department's weekly energy inventory report is at 9:30 a.m. CDT Wednesday. At 1 p.m., the Federal Reserve will release minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, seen as a possible source of clues about what the Fed will decide in September.

Weather

A trough in the Northwest continues to send energy into the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mild temperatures continue across the Corn Belt with sweltering heat still around Texas.

U.S. Beef Herd Rebuild Could Take Years

The U.S. beef cow inventory has fallen to its lowest level in more than 60 years. With no significant changes on the horizon that would quickly reverse the trend, rebuilding the U.S. beef cow herd to historical norms is shaping up to be a years-long undertaking. According to a new research brief from CoBank's Knowledge Exchange, current market conditions are incentivizing cow-calf producers to sell heifer calves rather than retain them for future breeding purposes. From a financial standpoint, the benefit of selling calves for immediate gain far outweighs the risks of investing in those calves to become part of their reproductive cow herd. CoBank researcher Abbi Prins says, “Given the route calf prices have gone, it's a become a no-brainer decision for some cow-calf operators to sell new crop calves for immediate cash flow,” Ultimately, calf prices will be the determining factor when it comes to whether the U.S. beef cow herd retracts further or begins to grow.

FSIS to Start H5N1 Beef Monitoring Sampling

USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service plans to monitor H5N1 influenza A in dairy cows at slaughter starting next month. FSIS will leverage its existing National Residue Program and conduct H5N1 sampling in the muscle samples of dairy cow carcasses already collected for the program. Samples will be tested by FSIS laboratory personnel using polymerase chain reaction testing. Carcasses sampled under the program are held by establishments pending residue testing results. This process will not require additional holding time for carcasses beyond current residue testing protocols. In the event of a positive H5N1 finding, USDA will work with industry to ensure the carcass does not enter the food supply. HPAI is a threat to the poultry industry, animal health, human health, trade, and the economy worldwide. Since the first detection of HPAI in dairy cattle in March 2024, USDA has worked to assess the prevalence of the virus in U.S. dairy herds.

USDA Addressing Wildlife Rabies Outbreak

The Department of Agriculture recently approved nearly $19 million in emergency funding to address current wildlife rabies outbreaks in multiple states. The funding allows USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service to establish a sufficient stockpile of oral rabies vaccination baits and address emerging rabies cases in high-risk areas. APHIS Administrator Michael Watson says, “By reducing rabies in wildlife populations, we are safeguarding both human and animal health and decreasing the risk of disease spread.” The APHIS National Rabies Management Program controls and eliminates rabies virus in terrestrial carnivores such as raccoons, coyotes and foxes.  APHIS has been able to support emergency responses in recent years using appropriated funding, but growing costs and the need to provide an increasing number of rabies responses has depleted available resources. This emergency funding is being redirected from unspent balances from previous animal and plant health emergencies. The funding will address rabies outbreaks in Alabama, Maine, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Vermont.

Cover Crop Adoption Rates Vary Across Regions

The adoption rates for cover crops vary across regions and how land is managed, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service. Land in the Heartland region had adoption rates of around ten percent for all owner-operated, cash-rented, and share-rented fields. Land in the Northern Great Plains and Prairie Gateway regions had adoption rates of around four percent for owner-operated fields and 11 percent for cash-rented fields. The rest of the country - any land outside of the Heartland, Great Plains, and Prairie Gateway Resource regions - had 30 percent cover crop adoption for fields operated by owner-operators and 16 percent of fields operated by cash renters, respectively. No surveyed share-rented fields in the “rest of the country” region adopted cover crops. According to the 2022 Census of Agriculture, 18.0 million acres of cover crops were planted in 2022, which has grown over the last decade.

Danford Plant Science Center CEO to Retire

Donald Danforth Plant Science Center President and CEO Jim Carrington recently announced he will step down on July 1, 2025. The Donald Danforth Plant Science Center is a not-for-profit research institute with a mission to improve the human condition through plant science, located in St Louis, Missouri. Carrington says, “We've been able to do so much because of our exceptional people, our partners and our supporters. But it's time to plan for a transition.” Penny Pennington, managing partner at Edward Jones and chair of the Danforth Center Board of Directors, will lead the search for a new President. Carrington has led the Danforth Center in delivering its mission since 2011. Under his leadership, the Danforth Center has grown significantly through doubling its staff, expanding the scope of scientific research, and developing new facilities like the William H. Danforth building on the main campus and the 140-acre Field Research Site.

Fuel Prices Decline Again

The nation’s average price of gasoline declined for the third straight week, falling 4.2 cents compared to a week ago to $3.37 per gallon, according to GasBuddy. The national average is down 11.4 cents from a month ago and is 47.8 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average diesel price fell 2.6 cents last week and is $3.69 per gallon—the lowest level in 940 days. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan says, “Gasoline and diesel prices continue to trail off across much of the country as summer demand fades away.” With economic concerns persisting on one of the balance of markets and with the potential of further attacks in the Middle East, oil prices have been somewhat in limbo over the last week. Meanwhile, U.S. retail gasoline demand rose 0.1 percent for the week ending August 17.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

There are no significant reports on Tuesday's docket, but grain traders will keep track of the latest weather forecasts and are probably scouring X for reports from a Midwestern crop tour.

Weather

A small disturbance will bring showers into the northwestern Corn Belt Tuesday, especially in eastern South Dakota. Drier conditions are expected elsewhere, but showers could pop back up again in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies.

Almost One-Quarter of Farmers Don’t Have Internet Access

U.S. Census data says American producers saw moderate improvement in internet access from 2017 to 2022. Across rural America, the percentage of farm operations or operator residences with internet access increased from 75.4 percent in 2017 to 78.7 percent in 2022. While many of the southeastern states still lag behind the U.S. average, most of them had significant increases in producers’ internet access over that period. There are still a surprising number of producers, at 21.3 percent, who don’t have access to the internet. This is important for government agencies and universities to understand and make sure that the information they provide is available to all producers. Many of the available options for internet access aren’t adequate for accessing precision agriculture in rural America. An FCC task force recommends a minimum performance of 100 megabits per second for downloading and 20 megabits per second for uploading to support precision agriculture.  

California Proposes Credit Cap on Renewable Diesel

Farm Policy News says the California Air Resources Board is proposing to cap the amount of renewable diesel made from soybean or canola oil that would qualify for the state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard. Some of the proposed changes for California’s LCFS would also require feedstocks like soybeans to be certified as meeting sustainability criteria. The California board also wants to continue an exemption from LCFS requirements for jet fuel. That may promote the increasing use of sustainable aviation fuel. Under the proposals, companies would be eligible for LCFS credits for no more than 20 percent of their biomass-based diesel made from soybean or canola oil. In the first quarter of 2024, biofuel from soybean and canola oil accounted for about 30 percent of the renewable diesel that qualified for the credits. The American Soybean Association says the proposal would likely increase credit prices and boost fuel costs throughout California.

Court Rules Against EPA in RFS Exemption Case

A Washington, D.C., Circuit Court panel vacated a swath of government decisions denying requests from small fossil fuel refineries to be temporarily exempt from the Renewable Fuel Standard. In 2022, the Environmental Protection Agency denied all pending exemption requests from small refineries, finding the only costs that could cause such economic hardship were those tied to compliance with the program, and those costs could be fully passed on to consumers. The Court wrote, “We conclude that the EPA’s rationale for denying all pending exemption requests was contrary to law and arbitrary and capricious. We therefore vacate the denial actions.” The panel’s decision comes in the wake of a Supreme Court decision overturning the long-standing Chevron deference that required courts to defer to an agency’s interpretation of a vague federal regulation. In an emailed statement, Growth Energy decried the panel’s decision and urged the EPA to meet its obligations under the RFS.

Certified Hereford Beef Names a New CEO

Ernie Davis, Jr. is the new president and CEO of Certified Hereford Beef. He brings three decades of merchandising experience to his new role from across all animal proteins. Much of his experience revolves around developing premium branded opportunities to help producers add value to production and retrieve added value for their efforts. “I view Certified Hereford Beef as the best-kept secret in the marketplace,” says Davis. “It is a great eating experience with great marbling and a great story behind it.” Davis also says he’s happy to sell a premium product with a producer-based story that resonates with consumers.” Certified Hereford Beef was established in 1995 and is owned by the U.S. farmers and ranchers who make up the AHA member list. Cattle qualifying for CHB must grade USDA Choice and higher. Cattle qualifying for Premium CHB must grade in the upper two-thirds of Choice and Prime.

NCC Responds to Campaign Rhetoric on Price Gouging

Recent political rhetoric in the presidential race came from the Democratic ticket and blamed the meat and poultry industry for rising meat prices. Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris says the food industry’s “corporate price gouging” would be the focus of an upcoming speech. National Chicken Council Interim President Gary Kushner says he doesn’t agree with the idea of price gouging. “Americans are seeing inflation in nearly every part of their livelihoods, including rent, gas, automobiles, furniture, and not just in the meat case,” Kushner says. “Chicken prices are largely affected by supply and demand, by major input costs like corn, soybeans, energy, packaging, transportation, and by fiscal policy and burdensome government regulations and not by price gouging.” He adds that it’s time for the administration to stop using the meat and poultry industry as a scapegoat and a distraction for the root causes of inflation and significant economic challenges.

New Soybean Yield Record Set

Southwest Georgia farmer Alex Harrell surpassed his own world record soybean harvest of 206.79 bushels an acre set in 2023. Now, he’s a back-to-back yield champ, growing the highest-yielding soybeans in agriculture history. He cut a bin-busting 218 bushels per acre in the Georgia Soybean Production Contest. He told Farm Journal that he never thought this year’s harvest would surpass last year’s by such a wide margin. After setting the record last year, he wanted to try again but decided to change things up. Harrell planted seeds into red clay watered by center pivot irrigation on the opposite end of the county from his previous year’s success. During the August harvest, Harrell hit 218.2856 bushels an acre on 2.58 acres, with the remainder of the field still well above 100 bushels per acre. The record soybeans averaged almost 3.1 beans per pod. His 2023 average was 2.8 beans per pod.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will be checking the latest weather forecasts. A report on U.S. leading economic indicators in July is due out at 9 a.m. CDT. USDA's report of weekly export inspections is at 10 a.m. CDT Monday, followed by the weekly Crop Progress report at 3 p.m.

Weather

A system moving off the East Coast Monday is dragging some mild and dry conditions through the Corn Belt. The front to the system will bring some showers to the southern Delta back into the Central Plains, but the main action will be in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies.

July Four-Wheel Drive Tractor Sales Increase

U.S. sales of four-wheel-drive tractors increased 18.6 percent in July compared to the year before and are up 5.2 percent year to date. That’s according to new data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. Total sales of ag tractors dropped 14 percent in July compared to 2023 and are down 12 percent year-to-date. Combine sales dipped 19 percent in July compared to 2023 and are 17.6 percent lower so far this year. “July’s uptick in four-wheel-drive tractors is a bright spot after slow sales in June and May,” says AEM Senior Vice President Curt Blades. “We’re still seeing softness across the subcompact tractor market after years of strong sales.” In Canada, July sales of four-wheel-drive tractors increased 88 percent compared to last year and are up 17 percent in 2024. Overall, Canadian ag tractor sales dropped 13 percent in July compared to last year and are 15 percent lower year-to-date.

Illinois Farmland Prices Up Three Percent in 2024

The average farm real estate value for Illinois in 2024 is $8,700 per acre, including the value of the land and buildings. That is 3.3 percent higher than the adjusted 2023 average of $8,420 per acre. It’s the third-highest increase since 2015. With that 3.3 percent increase in the average farm real estate value from 2023 to this year, the average Illinois farm real estate value for 2024 was 17 percent higher than the 2015 value of $7,430 ten years ago. Since 1970, the average farm real estate values have declined only eight times as compared to the previous year. There were four years when the value increased over 20 percent, the last coming in 2005. From 2015-2020, the change in values hasn’t varied as much, ranging between -1.9 percent to 1.7 percent during that period. Since 2020, the value increase averaged 5.2 percent, with 2022 the biggest increase at 10.5 percent.

USDA Announced December Trade Mission to Morocco

Alexis Taylor, USDA’s Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, will lead an agribusiness trade mission to Casablanca, Morocco, December 2-5. Current and potential exporters interested in participating should apply for consideration by August 28. “This mission presents a pivotal opportunity for U.S. agribusinesses to tap into Morocco’s dynamic market and leverage its strategic position for wider African success,” Taylor says. Morocco is the second-largest export market for U.S. agriculture in Africa. Sales of American farm and food products in the country topped $619 million last year, representing 16 percent of the continent’s market share. American agricultural exports have doubled since the U.S.-Morocco Free Trade Agreement entered into force in 2006. “Morocco offers a stable market and growing economy and serves as a key distribution hub for the African continent,” she adds. Exporters have numerous opportunities, including in beef, dairy, feed grains, live animals, genetics, rice, seafood, soybeans, and tree fruits.

Don’t Learn Safety by Accident

For the 80th time, the U.S. is holding National Farm Safety and Health Week during the third week of September, with this year’s schedule of September 15-21. Farm Safety and Health Week is a time to increase awareness of the high injury and fatality risk in agriculture and to improve agricultural health outcomes through outreach and education. Data from 2022 shows that the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industries had the highest rate of fatal work injuries compared to other occupations, at 23.5 deaths per 100,000 full-time workers. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says the majority of those are due to incidents with transportation or equipment. Agri-Safe is supporting the cause with 11 free educational webinars during the week. Each one has a specific topic, including equipment and roadway safety, health and wellness, confined spaces, and others. For more information, go to the Upper Midwest Agricultural Safety and Health Center’s website.

Graduate Students Advancing Beef Industry Eligible for Scholarship

Applications are being accepted for the annual W.D. Farr Scholarship Program. The scholarship was established in 2007 by the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and recognizes outstanding graduate students pursuing careers in meat science and animal agriculture. Two $15,000 grants are awarded to graduate students who demonstrate superior achievement in academics and leadership and are committed to the advancement of the beef industry. Previous scholarship recipients recognize that the program not only benefits their work but also the entire industry. Graduate students must apply online by submitting a cover letter, curriculum vitae, a description of their goals and experience, a short essay, a statement of belief in the industry, as well as a review of the applicant’s graduate research, and three letters of recommendation by September 20. The scholarship honors the late W.D. Farr, a third-generation pioneer, rancher, and statesman. For more information or to apply for the scholarship, visit nationalcattlemensfoundation.org.

Food Price Index Up Fractionally in July

The Food Price Index increased 0.2 percent in July, as it did in June. The index for food at home rose 0.1 percent in July. Three of the six major grocery store food group indexes rose over the month, while the other three dropped during July. The meat, poultry, fish, and eggs index rose 0.7 percent, with eggs seeing the largest increase. The cereals and bakery products index dropped by 0.5 percent, and so did the dairy and related products index. The food away from home index rose 0.2 percent in July after rising 0.4 percent in the prior two months. The index for food at home rose 1.1 percent during the last 12 months, while the index for food away from home rose 4.1 percent over the last year. The meat, poultry, fish, and eggs index had the biggest jump in the last year at three percent.

Friday Watch List

Markets

U.S. new housing starts will be out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Friday, followed by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index at 9 a.m. USDA's monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry outlooks is set for 2 p.m. Financial traders will continue to discuss the possibility of a rate cut in September, currently expected to be for a quarter-percent, but not set in stone.

Weather

A slow-moving storm system continues to move through the Midwest on Friday, producing areas of showers and thunderstorms that have resulted in some areas of heavy rain. The tail end of the front may also be active across Kansas and northern Oklahoma as well.

U.S. Renewable Diesel Imports up 29 Percent in 2024

The Energy Information Administration says the U.S. imported near-record volumes of renewable diesel fuel in each of the first five months of this year, averaging about 30,000 barrels a day. The imports were 29 percent higher than the same period last year, came from one producer, Neste (NEHS-tay), and almost all shipped to the West Coast. The EIA says it’s because California, Oregon, and Washington are the only states with active clean fuel programs that incentivize consuming renewable fuel beyond the incentives of federal policies. Scott Irwin of the University of Illinois says there’s an even more important contributor to the increase in imports, calling it a race by Neste, a Finnish oil company, to take advantage of the $1 per gallon blenders tax credit (BTC) before it expires at the end of this year. Renewable diesel imports aren’t eligible when the new Clean Fuel Tax Credit replaces the BTC next year.

Limited Ag Credit Stress, but Signs of Pressure

Ag credit stress was limited in the second quarter of 2024 but showed signs of tightening amid lower crop prices and rising input costs. Those are the findings from a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank in Kansas City. Farm income in the Tenth Federal Reserve District dropped faster than in recent quarters amid lower crop prices and increased expenses. “Despite sharp declines in farm income and capital spending, agricultural credit stress remained limited, but signs of financial pressure have appeared,” the survey said. “Lenders reported modest deterioration in farm finances, farm loan repayment rates declined at a gradual pace, and repayment problems on farms rose slightly.” The Fed says about 60 percent of farm lenders reported income was lower than last year. Stronger cattle prices weren’t enough to offset low crop prices. Income was down across the country but states that rely on crop production saw the steepest income declines.

Farmers to Help Address Land Use Changes

A new Land Use Change Initiative is leading efforts to resolve the inconsistencies in definitions, metrics, and methodologies for quantifying land use change. This multi-stakeholder initiative is funded by the United Soybean Board in partnership with Carbon A List. The effort seeks to unite every step in the value chain solution to these challenges. Farmers play an essential role in protecting our land’s natural resources through sustainable farming and conservation planning. “Our farmers have often been left out of conversations regarding land use change and its collective impact on agriculture,” says USB Chair Steve Reinhard. “We weren’t at the table, so we had to build our own table through this land use change initiative.” The Initiative started two years ago to drive collaboration. “It’s difficult to compete in the world on production alone,” says Dave Wessel, a USB Director. “A consistent land use change model would help level the playing field.”

USDA to Expand Slaughterhouse Beef Testing for Bird Flu

The USDA will expand slaughterhouse testing for H5N1 in beef entering the food supply as a part of its response plan to combat the ongoing outbreak in dairy cattle. Officials say the tests will begin mid-September and urged livestock workers to remain vigilant. The Print says almost 200 herds in 13 states have contracted the virus since March after it jumped from wild birds to cows. In May, the USDA tested 109 beef samples from dairy cows sent to slaughter and found bird flu virus particles in one sample. USDA Undersecretary for Food Safety Emilio Esteban says the expanded testing will continue for the rest of this year and focus on dairy cows. Eric Deeble, deputy undersecretary for marketing and regulatory programs, says USDA is confident in the existing level of bird flu testing. The USDA continues to report that meat and milk are safe for public consumption. 

FBI Holds Symposium on Threats to Agriculture

Farmers and ranchers from more than 30 states attended the 2024 Agriculture Threats Symposium hosted by the Omaha, Nebraska, field office. Technology continues advancing to make farming and agriculture more efficient across rural America. With more technology, there’s a potential for cyber-attacks that could affect the entire agriculture industry. FBI Agent Gene Kowel says there are four major threats to watch for. Those include criminal ransomware attacks, foreign adversaries stealing data, the potential for them to implant malware on industrial control systems and farming machinery, and lastly, the threat of bioterrorism. “People can take steps at ground level,” he says. “One is basic cyber hygiene like having multi-factor authentication for any kind of system.” Another is being willing to report any kind of attack to law enforcement. The more farmers and ranchers do that, Kowel says law enforcement has a better chance of being able to protect the entire industry.

Farmland Prices Increase Despite Downward Pressure

The Purdue University Farmland Value and Cash Rent Survey showed that Indiana farmland prices once again hit a new record in 2024. The average price of top-quality farmland is $14,392, up 4.8 percent from June 2023. Average and poor-quality farmland also hit new high prices at $11,630 and $9,071 per acre, an annual increase of 3.7 and 4.4 percent, respectively. Survey respondents suggest that the price growth mostly occurred late in 2023 and began to retreat in the first half of this year. Respondents generally expect farmland prices to decline modestly through the remainder of this year. At the state level, prices in December 2024 are expected to remain just above those observed in June 2023. The survey finds a number of forces putting downward pressure on farmland prices, including interest rates and crop prices. While there is general pessimism about the rest of 2024, longer-term economic expectations aren’t as gloomy.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report is due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT, the same time as weekly U.S. jobless claims and an update of the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. A report on U.S. industrial production will be out at 8:15 a.m. CDT, followed by the Energy Department's weekly report of natural gas storage at 9:30 a.m. The National Oilseeds Processors Association will release members' soybean crush data later Thursday morning, typically a lower figure at this time of year.

Weather

A storm system is moving from the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest on Thursday. The system is already producing widespread rain and thunderstorms Thursday morning in the middle of the Corn Belt that will move eastward. Additional rain and thunderstorms will develop behind these early clusters, with risks of hail and damaging winds across Illinois and Missouri later in the day and Thursday night.

Officials Want Fix for Foreign-Owned Farmland Disclosure Process

Senate Ag Committee members Chuck Grassley (R-IA), John Fetterman (D-PA), and Joni Ernst (R-IA) are asking the USDA to improve its process for foreign-owned farmland disclosures. The letter follows alleged inaccuracies posted online by the Farm Service Agency under the Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act. “It’s essential for the USDA to ensure that the information published on its website is accurate and reliable,” the senators say. “Inaccurate information can have significant implications for various stakeholders and erodes public trust in the integrity of the reporting process.” Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack says the current practice of manual entry, including the re-typing of paper-filed reports into FSA systems, can lead to the publication of problematic and inaccurate information. “We’re told there have been instances where energy developers have been incorrectly identified as having ownership interest from sanctioned nations when, in reality, the investment behind the company originates from U.S. allies,” says Vilsack.

USDA Trade Mission to Colombia Underway

Alexis Taylor, USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, arrived in Bogota, Colombia, this week. She’s leading a trade mission with representatives from 36 agribusinesses and organizations to enhance American agricultural exports and continue building on trade gains made since the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement was implemented in 2012. “Colombia stands out as a key growth market for U.S. agricultural exports,” Taylor says. “As South America’s second-most-populous country, Columbia is experiencing rapid growth in its middle class and consumer purchasing power.” Also, Colombian consumers are eager for the high-quality food and agricultural products that the U.S. delivers. Changes in Colombian lifestyles, including more dual-income households, interest in healthier foods, and a demand for packaged and prepared food products, all bode well for American exports. While in Colombia, U.S. agribusiness representatives will meet with potential importers from across the country. FAS staff and industry experts will provide detailed market briefings.

NACD and Trust In Food™ Affirm Partnership

The National Association of Conservation Districts and Trust In Food™, a sustainability initiative, signed a letter of agreement during the NACD Summer Meeting in Boston, Massachusetts. The letter builds on recent collaborations. Both share a common ground in championing a locally-led approach to natural resource conservation and the importance of partnerships and continuous improvement. “We look forward to growing our partnership with Trust In Food™ and encourage conservation districts to participate in activities like field days and peer networking with TIF’s America’s Conservation Agriculture Movement,” says NACD President Kim LaFleur. “It’s great to have TIF with their research-backed insights into what makes producers adopt regenerative and climate-smart agricultural practices as a partner to help producers get more conservation installed through voluntary programs.” The organizations will continue working together and participating in collaborative activities, sharing what they learned and promoting events and resources to empower producers and land stewards to conserve natural resources.

Baldwin Wants STB to Review High Transportation Costs

Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin called on the Surface Transportation Board to review existing exemptions for certain commodities like paper, forest products, manufactured goods, and food products. She wants the Board to take action to ensure companies that ship these goods can address harmful service and pricing issues. These outdated exemptions prohibit rail shippers from seeking recourse at the STB. Revoking the exemptions would also provide greater access to a newly finalized rule that will begin to address unreliable rail service and the high costs of rail shipping for businesses by increasing competition in the freight rail industry. Baldwin asked the Board to revisit their decades-old exemptions on the critical commodities that were put in place before the rail industry consolidated, reducing competition, raising costs, and hurting businesses in rural America. “For too long, businesses and growers had to rely on fewer and fewer rail carriers,” she says.

Impossible Foods Opens a Brick and Mortar Store

Impossible Foods opened a brick and mortar foodservice concept called Impossible Quality Meats at XMarket Food Hall near uptown Chicago. CEO Peter McGinnis told Food Dive that it’s all about availability and accessibility. A lot of people think plant-based is like a warm beer or cold shower, and it’s simply not,” he says. “The opening is a physical manifestation of the brand and a creative way to bring the company’s portfolio together.” The company’s beef, chicken, and pork products will be joined with other breakfast, lunch, and dinner items. Menu items will include a plant-based breakfast sausage sandwich, a Chicago-style hot dog, a grilled chicken Caesar salad or wrap, and a dessert item in collaboration with Oatly. “At the end of the day, this is all about burgers and hot dogs,” McGuiness adds. “I think this whole category has been over-intellectualized and in some cases politicized, and it’s been very partisan too.”  

Oklahoma State Plans for an Agronomy Discovery Center

Six million dollars in donations will help jump-start a new Agronomy Discovery Center at Oklahoma State University. As a multi-phase process, the Agronomy Discovery Center will be created through upgrades to the existing Agronomy Research Station, home to one of the world’s top wheat breeding programs. “The work conducted at the Agronomy Research Station matters, greatly affecting both producers and consumers throughout Oklahoma and beyond,” says Dr. Jayson Lusk, dean of OSU agriculture. “We’re doing state-of-the-art research, but we’re doing it in antiquated facilities.” Plans include the construction of a new headhouse and 12 research greenhouses that will become the birthplace of OSU’s new wheat breeds. Plans also include a dynamic and multipurpose Research and Education Center featuring classrooms and laboratory spaces that can accommodate industry audiences. The building will house lab spaces for the Wheat Quality Laboratory; the Soil, Water, and Forage Analytical Laboratory; and the Plant Disease and Insect Diagnostic Laboratory.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

The U.S. consumer price index for July is due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Wednesday, a report will likely factor into the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision in September. The U.S. Energy Department's weekly energy inventory report will follow at 9:30 a.m.

Weather

A system is slowly moving into the Northern Plains on Wednesday. There are already areas of showers and thunderstorms out there southeast into Missouri Wednesday morning. The system slowly shifts eastward through the Western Corn Belt throughout the day with showers and thunderstorms continuing. Severe storms will be most likely in the Mid-Missouri Valley this afternoon and evening.

USDA Forecasts Lower Corn and Higher Soybean Production

The USDA’s Crop Production Report forecasted corn production to be down from 2023 and soybean production up from last year. The corn production forecast is for 15.1 billion bushels, down one percent from last year. The average corn yield forecast is a record high of 183.1 billion bushels an acre, up 5.8 bushels from 2023. Soybean growers are expected to increase their production by ten percent compared to 2023, with a record-high forecast of 4.59 billion bushels. Soybean yields are expected to average a record high of 53.2 bushels per acre, up 2.6 bushels from 2023. The all wheat production is forecast to be 1.98 billion bushels, nine percent higher than last year. Monday’s report also included the first cotton forecast of the season. The all-cotton forecast is for 15.1 million 480-pound bales, up 25 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 840 pounds per acre, 59 pounds under 2023.  

Hurricane Debby Damage Impact at $28 Billion

A preliminary estimate of the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Debby is $28 billion. AccuWeather says Debby’s first landfall as a hurricane in Florida and second as a tropical storm in South Carolina and its impacts on the eastern U.S. will be widespread and long-lasting. Flooding hit both the coastal areas and extended inland. The hardest-hit locations experienced a foot or more of rain in only one or two days, leading to devastating flooding that damaged homes and businesses, even taking lives in the process. Some of the highest rain amounts reported included 21.06 inches in Tatem Ridge, Florida, 18.25 inches in Summerville, South Carolina, 15.25 inches in Kings Grant, North Carolina, and 13.87 inches in Rincon, Georgia. The highest wind gust reported in the storm was 99 miles per hour in Horseshoe Beach, Florida, and the highest storm surge was 6.11 feet in Cedar Key, Florida.

U.S. Dairy Asks Government to Preempt Colombian Trade Barriers

The National Milk Producers Federation and the U.S. Dairy Export Council are asking the U.S. government to leverage all available tools if Colombia implements countervailing tariffs on U.S. milk powder exports. They made the request in a letter sent Friday to U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack. Colombia’s recent decision to initiate an unwarranted Subsidies and Countervailing Measures investigation into U.S. milk powder exports is a tariff threat without merit. The dairy groups note that no causal link exists between U.S. milk powder exports and the injury alleged by Colombian officials. The letter also explains that imported milk powder products and domestically produced fluid milk are not interchangeable ingredients in a food manufacturing facility. “Initiating unfounded investigations undermines any progress and is a step backward in our trade relationship,” says Krysta Harden, president and CEO of USDEC. “We appreciate U.S. officials for recognizing this is baseless.”

August WASDE Calls for Lower Corn, Higher Soybean Ending Stocks

 The 2024-2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is calling for larger corn supplies, lower domestic use, greater exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, 47 million higher than last month. Ending stocks are forecast down 24 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price dropped a dime to $4.20 a bushel. The outlook for soybeans includes higher production, exports, and ending stocks. Production is forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, 154 million higher than in July. Ending stocks are forecast at 560 million bushels, 125 million more than last month. The season-average soybean price dropped 30 cents to $10.80 per bushel. The wheat outlook is for lower supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and smaller ending stocks. Projected ending stocks are down 28 million bushels to 828 million. The season-average farm price is unchanged from last month at $5.70 per bushel.

Junior Hereford Association Holds Faces of Leadership Conference

Members of the National Junior Hereford Association attended the 2024 Faces of Leadership Conference in Fort Worth, Texas, in late July. The Faces of Leadership conference is designed to help NJHA members hone communications, team-building, and other skills essential to becoming effective leaders. This year, 115 members from 25 states attended the event. “Good leaders know how to lead themselves first,” says NJHA vice chairman Haley Mouser. “The hat you should never take off in your life is living every day with a purpose.” Participants had several learning opportunities, including livestock handling and processing, presented by the Texas Christian University Ranch Management Program. “Faces of Leadership is a tool to not only build leaders but to get these young people started on a successful career path,” says Amy Cowan, director of youth activities for the American Hereford Association. “We hope they stay in agriculture but want to help them be successful.”

Cattle Feedlots Have Challenges Ahead

Dr. Glynn Tonsor, a livestock market economist at Kansas State University Extension, says cattle feedlots may have tough times ahead. He told the Radio Oklahoma Network that his most recent feedlot study doesn’t look healthy for the beef cattle industry from this fall into early next year. He warned of red ink for the feedlot business beginning in September and continuing through next spring. “The returns are projected to be negative,” he says. “The main reason is, yes, fed cattle prices are expected to go up, but nowhere near the rate that the incoming feeder cattle prices have gone up.” He says the main profit drivers for feedlots are what they pay for cattle coming in, how much it costs to feed them, and what they bring at sale time. If they pay more on incoming cattle than they make on sale day, margins get squeezed, which he predicts from September-March.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Grain traders will continue to digest USDA's new WASDE and Crop Progress estimates from Monday. The U.S. producer price index for July is due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Tuesday, offering an early peek at Wednesday's report on consumer prices.

Weather

A disturbance moving through Kansas is producing a cluster of thunderstorms early Tuesday morning. The cluster is forecast to die out Tuesday afternoon as it moves into Missouri, but leaves behind a zone for more showers and thunderstorms to develop Tuesday evening. Another disturbance moving into the Plains will aid that and other thunderstorms farther north and west, some of which could be severe.

Confusion Possible About Monday Acreage Updates

Lance Honig, Chair of the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, says there seems to be some confusion about a heads-up that USDA gave to commodities traders. The agency issued a notice reminding them acreage updates for corn and soybeans could come in the August reports that are due on Monday, August 12. Some traders took this to mean changes are coming, but Honig says that’s not necessarily the case. He said the heads-up was intended to be a process reminder. “It’s the same process we’ve been using for years,” he notes. “It’s just coming earlier as the processing improvements in the Farm Service Agency’s reporting have made the planting data more complete quicker than in the past.” The Chair of the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board says while the FSA data is highly valuable for planted acreage numbers, it is of very limited value for harvested acreage at this point in the season.

BLM Announces Next Steps in Public Lands Rule Implementation

The Bureau of Land Management announced its intent to develop a Federal Advisory Committee to engage the public and help inform the BLM’s implementation of the Public Lands Rule. The committee will allow the agency to continue working with and hearing from a range of experts and the public to support successful rule implementation. “The Public Lands Rule provides essential tools to help the Bureau improve and conserve the health of the lands we’ve been entrusted with for present and future generations,” says BLM Director Tracy Manning-Stone. In the weeks ahead, BLM will publish a call for nominations and a charter for the committee to the Federal Register. The BLM also released a set of initial guidance documents to support clear and consistent implementation of the rule across the Bureau’s 12 state and 175 field offices. The guidance documents will give direction to field personnel on how the rule will work.

Cattle Industry Leaders React to Rancher Persecution

Leaders of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and the Public Lands Council were not happy about the indictment of Charles and Heather Maude, family ranchers in western South Dakota. “I’m deeply disgusted by the Forest Service’s persecution of Charles and Heather,” says NCBA President Mark Eisele (EYES-lee). On June 20, 2024, the U.S. Attorney’s Office in South Dakota indicted them on charges of theft of government property related to a small piece of Forest Service land surrounded by the Maude’s private land. The family has stewarded that government land for generations. “The Forest Service’s deference to the heavy-handed special agent with a long history of abusing permittees is unconscionable,” says NCBA V.P. of Government Affairs Ethan Lane. The groups say the Forest Service has a long and shameful history of confronting ranchers in South Dakota, and their escalation to imprisonment over a century-old fence line has shaken the confidence of every permittee.

Lawmakers Show Bipartisan Support for Sugar Policy

In a bipartisan show of support for U.S. sugar policy, Representatives Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR), Rick Larsen (D-WA), and Dan Newhouse (R-WA) all spoke at the International Sweetener Symposium in Washington. Each of the members noted the importance of agriculture, particularly sugarbeets, to their region of the country. Sugar production has a significant impact on the Pacific Northwest’s economy. In Washington state, sugarbeets drive $28 million in yearly economic impact, and in Oregon, sugarbeets have $128 million worth of economic impact. Farmers across all commodities are facing rising production costs and greater weather challenges that have made it harder for family farms to survive. “As one of the few farmers in Congress, I understand those unique challenges our producers face,” Newhouse said. “I know that passing a farm bill is of utmost importance to our farm economy.” Newhouse expressed support for the strengthened provisions in the House Agriculture Committee’s farm bill.

Health Insurance Webinar for Farmers and Small Businesses

Healthcare costs are a significant burden for farmers and small businesses. A Penn State University Extension webinar is aimed at helping participants better understand the available options. The webinar titled “Smart Choice, Smart Use Health Insurance: Options for Farmers and Small Businesses” takes place from noon to 1:30 pm Eastern Time on September 5. The session is designed for farmers and small business owners, those with fewer than 50 employees, who are interested in learning about available insurance options. The webinar will cover health insurance options as they relate to farmers and small businesses, items to consider when selecting health insurance, and sources for more information on health insurance options. By making smart choices, farmers and small business owners can ensure that their health and the well-being of their businesses are protected. The webinar is free but registration by noon ET on September 5 is required. More information is at extension.psu.edu.

Corn Sales for Export Rise

USDA data shows corn sales jumped week-to-week, while wheat sales were narrowly lower. Corn sales in the seven days ending on August 1 were reported at 485,000 metric tons. USDA says that’s up from 168,000 metric tons the week before and is a 32 percent increase from the prior four-week average. Mexico was the big buyer at 309,400 metric tons. Sales for the upcoming marketing year that starts September 1 totaled 249,000 metric tons. Soybean sales hit 325,400 metric tons, two percent higher than the previous week and 66 percent from the average. China was the top buyer at 134,500 metric tons. Sales for the next marketing year totaled 985,200 tons. Wheat sales fell four percent weekly to 274,000 metric tons. That’s down 23 percent from the average total for this time of year. Taiwan was the top wheat buyer at 105,700 metric tons, while Japan bought just over 63,000 tons.  

Top 5 Things to Watch - WASDE, DTN Digital Yield Tour Kick Off the Week

1. DTN Digital Yield Tour: The seventh annual DTN Digital Yield Tour will run August 13-16. This year's tour will have a slight change, featuring corn and soybean predictions from new DTN-developed yield models, including our proprietary historical weather data, plus insights from farmers, agronomists and others from around the Corn Belt. Watch for continued coverage throughout the week, including a full take on changes for the 2024 Tour.

2. WASDE Monday: The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is revealed at 11:00 a.m. Monday. We will have our flash report immediately after the numbers are made public, with continuing updates and analysis through the morning. 

3. FSA Acreage Report. Monday we'll also see the first actual acreage report for the 2024 crop season from Farm Service Agency. The acreage data will be released at 12:00 p.m. and is based on farmer-reported categorization of acres as planted, prevented planted or failed. It's the first look of the season on what flooding and wet conditions had on farmers' ability to plant the land they intended to plant in 2024.

4. Weather For the Week: We'll be watching the continued chance of early frosts in northern Canada prairies, and how the cold front creating those conditions plays out throughout the upper US plains. Cooler temperatures in the Midwest and central and southern Plains states early in the week lessen the chance for rain; we'll see temps climb again later in the week. Conditions are hot and dry in the Delta, a drain on soil moisture there. A front moving into the region will stall out going into next week, but models disagree whether that will produce any rain.

5. Economic Reports This Week: Monday, Grain Inspections reports are out at 10 a.m., followed by the 11 a.m. WASDE and Crop Production reports. At 11:15 a.m. we'll see the latest Grains and World Grain, Cotton and Oilseed stocks and trade report. At 12:00 p.m. FSA releases the acreage report, then at 1 p.m. we'll see the Monthly Federal Budget report, then the weekly Crop Progress report hits at 3 p.m., followed by our analysis of the report. Tuesday at 7:30 a.m. the Producer Price Index and Core PPI are released. At 11 a.m. we'll see the Feedgrain Database updates, then at 2 p.m. we'll see Wheat Data and latest County Estimates for Hogs, as well as the Season Average Price forecasts from the Economic Research Service. Wednesday reports start at 7:30 a.m. with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI. At 8:15 a.m. the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization reports are out. At 9:30 a.m. we'll see EIA's Weekly Petroleum including ethanol statistics, then Broiler and Turkey hatchery numbers are at 2 p.m. Thursday starts at 7:30 a.m. with Grain Export Sales, Housing Starts and Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims Retail Sales and the latest Import Price Index. At 8:15 a.m. we'll see Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, followed by Business Inventories data at 9 a.m. Friday reports begin at 7:30 a.m. with Housing Starts and Building Permits. At 9 a.m. we'll have Consumer Sentiment indexes and the Home Builder Confidence Index. At 2:30 p.m. the CFTC Commitment of Traders report is out.