U.S. Ag Trade Deficit Widens

The U.S. agricultural trade deficit is projected to increase again to $32 billion in fiscal year 2024, a $1.5 billion increase from the February projection. Those numbers come from the USDA Economic Research Service’s quarterly May 2024 Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. “U.S. agricultural exports during fiscal year 2024 are projected at $170.5 billion, unchanged from February,” the report says. “Higher exports of livestock and dairy, as well as increased ethanol sales largely offset reductions in grains, feeds, oilseeds, and horticultural products.” U.S. agricultural imports are forecast at $202.5 billion, a $1.5 billion increase driven predominantly by higher horticultural products and livestock and dairy imports.” Horticultural product imports are forecast to be up $1.5 billion to $99.6 billion, led by increases in fresh fruits and vegetables. The report also says livestock, poultry, and dairy imports are projected up $600 million to $28.7 billion, driven by higher dairy and livestock projections.

China Blocks Beef Imports from JBS

Meat processor JBS says China blocked shipments from the company’s Colorado plant because traces of ractopamine (rack-TOE-pah-meen), a feed additive, were found in beef headed to China. The Poultry Site says Brazil-based JBS, the world’s biggest meat processor, announced in a statement that it’s working with U.S. and Chinese authorities to resolve the situation. No other JBS beef facilities in the U.S. have been impacted by the Chinese announcement. Ractopamine is a feed additive used to boost animal weight. At least 160 countries, including the EU, Russia, and China, have banned or restricted the supplement’s use. Earlier this year, food safety, environmental, and animal rights groups filed a lawsuit against the Food and Drug Administration seeking to force it to reconsider approvals of ractopamine. The groups say the additive is putting human health at risk and causing greater stress in farm animals before slaughter. USDA officials had no immediate comment.

Tennessee Farmer Heading to Prison for Crop Insurance Fraud

A Tennessee farmer is heading to prison for his second conviction of illegally taking money from the federal crop insurance program. Insurance News Dot Net says David Manion, a tobacco farmer in Tennessee and Kentucky, was given a 42-month prison sentence in U.S. District Court. Manion’s first conviction took place eight years ago when he was sentenced to spend one day in custody after admitting he defrauded the crop insurance program. Earlier this year, Manion pleaded guilty to another count of federal crop insurance fraud based on knowingly making false statements and reports on applications for crop insurance between 2016-2022. According to federal court records, Manion carried out the fraud by having his children insure crops in their names on land that he owned. Manion’s attorney reached an agreement with federal prosecutors in which he’d pay almost nine million dollars in fines. Two million dollars has already been paid. 

Extreme Heat Heading to the Southwest and Central U.S.

A heat dome led to record-high temperatures and expanding drought conditions in Mexico and is now forecast to expand northward. AccuWeather says the dome will bring higher temperatures to parts of the Southwestern and Central United States in the coming weeks. Meteorologists say 82 percent of Mexico was experiencing conditions ranging from abnormally dry to exceptional drought as of May 1. Almost 12 percent of Mexico was impacted by the harshest drought category. Records show this has been the worst drought for most of Mexico since 2011 when only four percent of the country wasn’t experiencing abnormally dry or drought conditions. With no significant moisture to help reduce the sun’s rays, the same drought has helped boost temperatures to record levels. The highest temp recorded in Mexico this year has been 124 degrees at Galinas on May 9. That’s less than two degrees from the all-time high of 125.6 degrees Fahrenheit.

Partnership Advancing Regenerative Ag in Cotton

A nationwide partnership led by the Soil Health Institute’s U.S. Regenerative Cotton Fund is creating opportunities to advance sustainable cotton farming. The fund’s approach to advancing economic insights, soil health measurement, and education has made significant progress in the U.S. Cotton Belt since its establishment. “The soil health benchmarks SHI is providing are a great way to help farmers set realistic soil health goals and measure their success,” says fifth-generation cotton farmer Zeb Winslow, who hosted a recent field demonstration at his farm in North Carolina. Launched in 2021, the fund is a farmer-facing, science-based initiative to support long-term, sustainable U.S. cotton production, with the goal of eliminating one million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent from the atmosphere by 2026. “Reaching farmers where they’re at is important if we’re going to continue the soil health movement,” Winslow adds. The fund is active in Alabama, California, Mississippi, and several other states. 

Funds for Restoring Wetlands on Agricultural Land

The USDA will invest up to $50 million in fiscal year 2024 through the Wetland Reserve Enhancement Partnership (WREP) to support conservation partners with local projects. Those projects should help protect, restore, and enhance critical wetlands on agricultural lands and help mitigate climate change. With funding from the 2018 Farm Bill and the Inflation Reduction Act, WREP empowers eligible conservation partners to work with local agriculture producers to protect, restore, and enhance high-priority wetlands on agricultural lands. The Natural Resources Conservation Service is accepting proposals until August 16, 2024. NRCS is prioritizing proposals that focus on producers who conserve wetlands or that are anticipated to benefit disadvantaged communities, contributing to NRCS’ efforts to advance equity and environmental justice in its delivery of conservation programs. “Our goal is to help mitigate climate change through our conservation programs while improving critical natural resources like wetlands and wildlife habitat,” says NRCS Chief Terry Cosby.

Friday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales will be out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Friday, the same time as reports on U.S. personal income and consumer spending for April. The PCE inflation index for April will also be released at 7:30 a.m., a factor in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Later Friday morning, Stats Canada will release Canada's first-quarter GDP.

Weather

A system in Canada pushed a front into the Upper Midwest to Central Plains which has stalled and will continue to produce areas of scattered showers throughout Friday. The South-Central U.S., which is between that front and another stalled boundary, will continue to produce heavier rain and some severe thunderstorms. Flooding is again possible in some areas that have seen it recently down there.

U.S., EU Consider Bird Flu Vaccinations

The United States and European Union are taking steps to acquire or manufacture H5N1 bird flu vaccines. Reports say the vaccines would protect at-risk poultry and dairy workers, veterinarians, and lab technicians. Experts say this could curb a pandemic threat. U.S. officials are already moving bulk vaccine that closely matches the current virus into almost five million vaccine doses. These actions come after the rapid spread of a new bird flu that first emerged in late 2020, killing a large number of wild birds and domestic poultry. In 2024, the virus began infecting several mammal species, including cattle. The virus has infected a large number of cattle in nine states and two dairy employees. The Food and Drug Administration estimates that 20 percent of the U.S. milk supply shows signs of the virus, increasing chances of a wider spread. Officials told Reuters the sole focus should be on preventing that.

Renewable Diesel Production Surpasses Biodiesel

The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates that a specific volume of certain biofuels be used each year in transportation fuel. One category of biofuels in the mandate is biomass-based diesel. For many years, biodiesel filled that part of the mandate. Biodiesel production grew steadily in the early 2000s to hit a peak of 1.8 billion gallons during the 2018-2019 marketing year. Renewable diesel has displaced biodiesel’s share of the market. Production of renewable diesel has grown from 40 million gallons in the 2010-2011 marketing year to 2.3 billion gallons in 2022-2023, surpassing biodiesel production for the first time. Combined, biodiesel and renewable diesel pushed total biomass-based diesel production to an all-time high in 2022-2023. As that part of the biofuels sector has mostly expanded since 2001-2002, an increasing share of soybean oil produced in the U.S. is now used for the biofuel, going from one percent in 2001-2002 to 46 percent in 2022-2023.

Stabenow Applauds Strengthening Integrity in Carbon Credit Markets

Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Chairwoman of the Senate Ag Committee, applauded the Biden administration’s progress in strengthening the integrity of voluntary carbon credit markets. She says this marks a critical step to help those markets reach their full potential as a valuable tool to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. “Our farmers and foresters are an important part of the climate solution,” Stabenow says. “Voluntary carbon credit markets generate new revenue streams for farmers, foresters, and rural communities, and there is clear enthusiasm across private industry and the public sector to tap into that potential.” She also says this announcement will strengthen the integrity of those markets and build a foundation for the future. The Biden administration released voluntary principles for participation in voluntary carbon markets. The release builds on the guidance recently proposed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission related to the listing of voluntary carbon credit derivative contracts.

NSP Partnership to Empower Growers

Farmers Edge, a digital ag company, and the National Sorghum Producers announced a new strategic partnership aimed at enhancing sustainable farming practices for sorghum growers. The partnership will support growers participating in NSP’s Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities Grant Program funded by the USDA. Together, Farmers Edge and NSP will help growers seamlessly integrate advanced technology solutions for capturing essential on-farm data, including Carbon Intensity Scoring, thus contributing to broader environmental goals. Using FarmCommand®, Farmers Edge’s end-to-end platform, growers can make more informed decisions, monitor and improve their CI scores, and easily work with NSP to extract and export data verifying their environmental impact. With this data, growers have an opportunity to monetize their sustainability initiatives, solidify sorghum as a climate-smart commodity, and support their farms’ long-term financial viability. “We’re excited to collaborate with Farmers Edge to bring innovative solutions to sorghum farmers,” says NSP PCSC Program Managing Director Matt Durler.

Export Inspections of Corn Decline

Inspections of U.S. corn for overseas delivery declined week to week while bean and wheat assessments improved. Corn inspections during the week ending on May 23 fell to 1.08 million metric tons. USDA says that’s down from 1.23 million a week earlier and 1.35 million during the same week last year. Examinations of soybeans for export increased to 212,105 tons, up from just over 192,200 tons the previous week. However, that’s down from the 256,600 tons inspected during the same week last year. Wheat assessments jumped to 398,900 tons from 228,200 tons a week earlier and 391,000 tons during the same week in 2023. Since the start of the marketing year, USDA has inspected 36.3 million metric tons of corn for offshore delivery. Soybean inspections totaled 40 million tons, while wheat examinations reached 18.3 million tons. The corn total is higher than last year, while soybeans and corn are lower.

The Science of Soil From Feeding Minds Press

Young readers, gardeners, and educators have a new agricultural adventure to dig into with the latest children’s book from Feeding Minds Press. “The Soil in Jackie’s Garden” is a cumulative-style picture book that tells the story of Jackie and her garden friends as they discover the wonders of soil and how things grow. Loaded with scientific facts about soil, plants, pollinators, decomposers, and more, “The Soil in Jackie’s Garden” will engage readers ages six and up in becoming environmental stewards, learning how to care for a garden, understanding a plant’s life cycle, discovering the power of pollinators, and the importance of composting. The book is written by award-winning nonfiction children’s book author Peggy Thomas, who’s also the author of “Full of Beans: Henry Ford Grows a Car,” the winner of the 2020 American Farm Bureau Foundation for Agriculture Book of the Year Award. Education materials are included with the book.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Weekly U.S. jobless claims, first-quarter U.S. GDP and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor will all be out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Thursday. The U.S. Energy Department's weekly natural gas storage report will be out at 9:30 a.m., followed by the weekly energy inventory report at 10 a.m. USDA's weekly export sales report will be out Friday morning, along with an important inflation indicator.

Weather

A system moving through the Canadian Prairies is pushing a cold front through the Northern and Central Plains Thursday morning, which will get into the Upper Midwest by this evening. To the south, the front will pivot in the region but also be near enough to an old boundary across Texas that should produce scattered showers and thunderstorms and severe weather in the southwestern Plains.

Another Step Toward Net-Zero for U.S. Dairy

The National Milk Producers Federation says the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of Elanco’s Bovaer (boe-vair) is another important step toward a net-zero future. Bovaer and other new technologies that reduce enteric emissions will help U.S. farmers get rewarded for participating in voluntary, producer-led sustainability initiatives, which is critical for the success of such efforts. NMPF also thanks the FDA for its support. “Consumers around the world are demanding lower-carbon foods,” says NMPF President and CEO Gregg Doud. “Innovations such as Bovaer will help American dairy farmers remain globally competitive and maintain their role as leaders in more sustainable dairy production.” NMPF is also grateful to USDA for supporting dairy farmers as they prepare to use Bovaer on their operations. “We’re grateful the department awarded more than $90 million to dairy farmer-owned cooperatives and partner organizations for innovative feed management under the Regional Conservation Partnership for fiscal year 2023,” Doud adds. 

USMEF to Promote Underused Cuts of Meat

The U.S. Meat Export Federation finished its spring conference last week with a closing session focusing on the red meat industry’s efforts to build international demand for beef and pork cuts with limited domestic use. Jessica Spreitzer, USMEF Director of Trade Analysis, highlighted their marketing efforts showcasing the attributes of underutilized U.S. cuts. She talked about USMEF strategies to develop demand for cuts specifically from the pork loin and beef round primals, pointing to estimates that loin exports now account for about 20 percent of U.S. production, up from ten percent five years ago. On export demand for underutilized beef cuts, she noted that export markets account for 42 percent of the total U.S production of the gooseneck round, 30 percent of the chuck shoulder clod, and 18 percent of the top inside round. “The export side adds pricing competition, potential customers, and brings added value to underutilized cuts,” Spreitzer adds.    

Cattle on Feed Down One Percent

The latest Cattle on Feed report shows the U.S. herd dropped by one percent in April. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on May 1, 2024. That level was one percent below May 1, 2023. Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.66 million head, six percent below 2023. Net placements were 1.6 million head. In April, 335,000 cattle and calves weighing under 600 pounds were placed in feedlots, while 600–699-pound placements totaled 220,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 375,000 head, 800-899 pounds totaled 451,000 head, and 900-999 pounds were 205,000 head. Placements of cattle weighing 1,000 pounds or greater totaled 70,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle in April totaled 1.87 million head, ten percent higher than in 2023. Other disappearances totaled 56,000 head during April, ten percent above April 2023.

USDA Requests Information on Next Steps for Growing Climate Solutions Act

The USDA is seeking information from the public on protocols that may be considered for inclusion in a new Greenhouse Gas Technical Assistance Provider and Third-Party Verifier Program. This is the main program of the Growing Climate Solutions Act. The input is being collected through a Request for Information and will be considered in the preparation of a proposed rule to establish the program. “High-integrity voluntary carbon markets offer a promising tool to create new revenue streams for producers and achieve greenhouse gas reductions from the agriculture and forest sectors,” says Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack. “However, a variety of barriers have hindered agriculture’s participation in voluntary carbon markets, and we are seeking to change that by establishing a new Greenhouse Gas Technical Assistance Provider and Third-Party Verifier Program.” Establishing the program is the next step in implementing the Growing Climate Solutions Act. Submit comments during the 30-day period at regulations.gov.  

Seven FFA Members Named Presidential Scholars

Seven FFA student members have been named U.S. Presidential Scholars, one of the nation’s highest honors for high school students. The seven students were named winners for their accomplishments in academics, the arts, and career and technical education. Of the 3.7 million students expected to graduate from high school this year, more than 5,700 candidates qualified for the 2024 award, and 161 students received the honor. The U.S. Presidential Scholars Program, established in 1964 by President Lyndon Johnson, was created to recognize the nation’s most distinguished high school graduating seniors. In 2015, the program was expanded to recognize students demonstrating ability and accomplishment in career and technical education. “We are extremely proud of this accomplishment for these seven FFA members,” says National FFA CEO Scott Stump. “We know that our members are current and future leaders, and this demonstrates the students’ academic excellence.” The complete winners list is at ed.gov/psp.

U.S. Bans Avian Products from Australian State

U.S. imports of poultry and other avian products from the Australian state of Victoria are banned in a bid to stop the spread of bird flu. That statement comes from USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. Imports of poultry, commercial birds, and hatching eggs have also been prohibited. Processed avian products and byproducts from Victoria will need an import permit or government certificate from APHIS showing they’ve met the agency’s requirements. Avian and egg products must have a thoroughly cooked appearance and be contained in hermetically sealed packaging and cooked in a commercial method so items are stable without refrigeration. Items can also have an import permit or certification from APHIS showing they were handled per the agency’s usual requirements. The list of banned products includes “hunter-harvested, non-fully finished avian trophies and meat,” APHIS says. The agency also says any restrictions will be updated as more information becomes available.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Traders continue to keep a close watch on the latest weather forecasts, especially around the Black Sea region. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book will be released at 1 p.m. CDT Wednesday. Weekly energy inventories, usually released on Wednesday, will be out Thursday, due to the Memorial Day schedule.

Weather

A weak system continues from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday, as does a stalled front across the Southern Plains. But the next system will move through the Canadian Prairies and drag a front through the Plains, where severe weather will be more likely.

AFBF and NFU Respond to Farm Bill Markup

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall responded to markup and passage of the Farm Bill out of the House Agriculture Committee Thursday. Duvall says, “We applaud the bipartisan vote after 13 hours of rigorous debate, but know that tight margins in both chambers and a crowded congressional calendar will present challenges in the next legislative steps." Duvall urged the Senate Agriculture Committee to schedule a farm bill markup. National Farmers Union President Rob Larew added, "A successful farm bill needs broad bipartisan support. We applaud today's progress, but we know that significant improvements will be needed to advance this bill." At the NFU Convention held in March 2024, delegates approved a special order of business outlining the organization’s priorities for the 2024 Farm Bill, including advancing NFU’s Fairness for Farmers campaign, maintaining and improving the farm safety net, and strengthening conservation programs.

Coalition Applauds Inclusion of Sustainable Aviation Provisions in Farm Bill

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Coalition’s Executive Director, Alison Graab welcomed Farm Bill markup and inclusion of sustainable aviation provisions in the bill. Graab says, “The provisions of the bill affirming sustainable aviation fuel as an advanced biofuel and providing for greater USDA collaboration regarding sustainable aviation fuel underscore the significant role of sustainable aviation fuel.”  Sustainable aviation fuel made from renewable biomass and waste resources have the potential to deliver the performance of petroleum-based jet fuel but with a fraction of its carbon footprint, giving airlines solid footing for decoupling greenhouse gas emissions from flight, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. By growing biomass crops for sustainable aviation fuel production, American farmers can earn more money during off seasons by providing feedstocks to this new market, while also securing benefits for their farms like reducing nutrient losses and improving soil quality. The Sustainable Aviation Coalition represents the entirety of the sustainable aviation fuel value chain.

Livestock Groups Welcome Farm Bill Markup

Livestock groups welcomed the House Agriculture Committee's action to markup the Farm Bill. The National Pork Producers Council says the bill supports all pork producer's farm bill requests, including a federal fix to the host of Prop. 12 issues plaguing producers and consumers. NPPC President Lori Stevermer says, "I'm pleased to see the U.S. House Agriculture Committee seize the opportunity to stop a potential 50-state patchwork of differing on-farm regulations." A 2018 California ballot initiative, Proposition 12, prohibits the sale of uncooked whole pork meat not produced according to the state's arbitrary housing dimensions. National Cattlemen's Beef Association President Mark Eisele says, "This Farm Bill protects the cattle industry from foreign animal disease, supports producers’ voluntary conservation efforts, and safeguards our food supply.” And National Milk Producers Federation President and CEO Greg Doud adds, “We commend Chairman Thompson and committee members from both parties for approving a 2024 House Farm Bill that includes critical dairy priorities.” The legislation extends the Dairy Margin Coverage program though 2029, among other dairy priorities.

Grassley, Feenstra, Ernst Demand Higher RVO Levels

Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst, both Iowa Republicans, are demanding the Environmental Protection Agency raise 2024 and 2025 renewable volume obligations for biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuels. The lawmakers joined Representative Randy Feenstra, also an Iowa Republican, in a letter to President Biden and EPA Administrator Michael Regan. The letter states, "For the biomass-based diesel industry to continue to grow, it needs certainty and predictability, and this requires RVOs that adequately reflect the growth potential of biomass-based diesel production." The agency last year set RVOs at levels that the lawmakers say fail to align with market conditions and production outlook, contributing to biodiesel plant closures in the Midwest, including in Carroll County, Iowa. The letter also touted reduced emissions of renewable fuels. According to a life cycle analysis completed by the Argonne National Laboratory using the GREET model, 100 percent biodiesel reduces emissions 74 percent compared to petroleum diesel.

House Subcommittee Advances AM for Every Vehicle Act

Lawmakers recently advanced the AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act out of a subcommittee. The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Innovation, Data and Commerce's marked up and passed the legislation for full committee consideration. The action follows a subcommittee hearing on April 30, and mirrors the draft legislative language that was the focus of hearing. Representatives from the National Association of Broadcasting and the National Association of Farm Broadcasting attended that hearing. During Thursday’s markup, Representative Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat, noted that automakers are ready to commit to voluntarily keeping AM radio in vehicles but added, "I also think AM radio should be in all — in cars as well as trucks, boats, agriculture, and recreational vehicles. I think we need to study those issues.” Legislation to require AM radio as a safety feature in all vehicles currently has 61 cosponsors in the Senate and 254 cosponsors in the House of Representatives. 

Masters of Beef Advocacy Program Celebrates 25,000 Graduates

Two years ago the Masters of Beef Advocacy program managed by the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, a contractor to the Beef Checkoff, hit 20,000 graduates. Now, the program celebrates an additional 5,000 graduates – reaching a new milestone for advocacy in the beef industry. Created in 2009, the MBA program is a free, self-guided online course that provides members of the beef community – from farmers and ranchers to students, supply chain members and consumers – with the tools and resources needed to become a strong advocate for the beef community. In 2021, the MBA program launched MBA NextGen – which updated training modules, splitting the course into five online lessons. After completing NextGen, MBA graduates can enroll in MBA Continuing Education where graduates can continue their education with more lessons Graduates can also access monthly newsletters and join the program’s Facebook community where updates are given on the latest consumer trends.

Top 5 Things to Watch - Weather, Farm Bill and Crop Progress

1. Market closed Monday: Commodity markets are closed for the Memorial Day holiday, as we honor those who've made the ultimate sacrifice for our country. The DTN newsroom also will be closed, although some new stories are appearing on our products throughout the holiday weekend. Watch for market reports late Monday night; DTN subscribers will see their next Early Word market reports Tuesday morning. 

2. Farm bill progress: As of this writing, the House Agriculture Committee advanced a $1.5 trillion farm bill out of committee on a bipartisan vote. Check out DTN Ag Policy Editor Chris Clayton's blog comparing this farm bill's progress to those he has covered since 2007 at . Clayton and DTN Political Correspondent Jerry Hagstrom will continue with news on the farm bill as it happens. 

3. This week's weather: The final system in the incredibly active pattern moves through Sunday and Monday, though showers may linger into Tuesday. We'll see a short break, then another system will come through late in the week and weekend. Planting windows are tight, so our weekly Crop Progress report updates (out Tuesday due to the holiday) bear watching. 

4. Final planting date looms: As rain stalls planting, the final planting date for full crop insurance coverage for corn is May 31 in some key production states.

5. Economic reports to watch: Monday, no reports due to Memorial Day holiday. Tuesday, at 8 a.m. the Case-Shiller Home Price Index hits the street. At 9 a.m. we'll see the latest Consumer Confidence numbers, followed by Grain Inspections at 10 a.m. and the 3 p.m. release of the USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress report. Wednesday we'll see the Broiler Hatchery numbers at 2 p.m. Then Thursday is a busier day, starting with several 7:30 a.m. reports, including Grain Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, the first quarter revision of US GDP numbers, U.S. trade balance and retail and wholesale inventories. At 9 a.m. we'll see Pending Home Sales reports. Friday reports also kick off at 7:30 a.m. with Personal Income and Spending, PCE Index and Core PCE Index numbers. At 2:30 p.m. we'll have the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Back from the three-day weekend, traders will catch up on the latest weather forecasts and any market-related news. A report on U.S. consumer confidence in May will be out at 9 a.m. CDT Tuesday. USDA's report of weekly export inspections is at 10 a.m., followed by NASS's weekly Crop Progress report at 3 p.m.

Weather

Isolated to scattered showers continue in the Midwest Tuesday. A stalled front is already producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of the Plains that has become severe in northern Texas. The next storm is approaching the Pacific Northwest as our pattern stays active.

USDA Expands Support for Producers to Stop H5N1 Spread in Dairy Cattle

USDA Thursday expanded support for dairy producers taking mitigation measures to protect cattle from H5N1. USDA will now provide financial support, up to $1,500 per premises, to any producer to develop and implement a biosecurity plan based on existing secure milk supply plans. In addition, USDA will provide a $100 payment to producers who purchase and use an in-line sampler for their milk system. USDA is supporting producers by covering fees for veterinarians to collect samples for H5N1 testing. Veterinary sample collection costs are eligible to be covered from April 29, 2024, up to $2,000 per premises. USDA will pay for the cost of shipping samples to National Animal Health Laboratory Network labs for testing, not to exceed $50 per shipment for up to two shipments per month for each premise. Further, USDA will soon issue a rule making funding available from the Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honey Bees, and Farm-raised Fish Program to compensate eligible producers with positive herds who experience loss of milk production.

USDA Announces Domestic Fertilizer Investments

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack Thursday announced USDA is investing in domestic fertilizer projects to strengthen competition for U.S. agriculture. The funding comes via the Fertilizer Production and Expansion Program. USDA is awarding $83 million in 12 states for projects through the program that provides grants to independent business owners to help them modernize equipment, adopt new technologies, build production plants and more. Vilsack says the investments will, “increase domestic fertilizer production and strengthen our supply chain, all while creating good-paying jobs that will benefit everyone.” The investments will boost domestic fertilizer production, strengthen competition and lower costs for U.S. farmers. USDA is making awards to facilities in California, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon and Washington. To date, USDA has invested $251 million in 57 projects across 29 states through the program.

AVMA Applauds Veterinary Priorities in the Farm Bill

The House and Senate Agriculture Committees have taken action to pass a new Farm Bill that would reauthorize many federal programs essential to veterinary medicine. Working with lawmakers and stakeholder groups, AVMA's sustained advocacy led to the inclusion of the veterinary profession's top legislative priorities that will help protect animal welfare and maintain public health. AVMA President Dr. Rena Carlson says, “AVMA's continued advocacy has led to the inclusion of reauthorizations, funding, and legislation that will help protect animal and human welfare while advancing veterinary medicine.” Key provisions for AVMA include the Healthy Dog Importation Act and reauthorization of animal disease prevention and management programs. Further, AVMA supports the reauthorization of the Veterinary Medicine Loan Repayment Program, and the Veterinary Services Grant Program included in the farm bill. AVMA is the nation's leading representative of the veterinary profession, speaking for more than 105,000 member veterinarians nationwide.

Weather Experts Voice Atlantic Hurricane Season Concerns

With the Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning on June 1, AccuWeather meteorologists are concerned about a serious threat of rapidly intensifying storms during the 2024 season. Rapid intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes is defined as a tropical storm or hurricane that quickly gains wind intensity of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva says rapidly intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes pose a major threat along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastlines. DaSilva says, “The warmer the oceans are, the more favorable the environment will be for tropical development and intensification.” The switch to a La Niña pattern, record-shattering warm ocean temperatures in the Main Development Region at the surface, and warm waters at deep depths are all red flags for AccuWeather expert meteorologists. The minimum temperature threshold for tropical development is roughly 80 degrees Fahrenheit. AccuWeather expert meteorologists say many areas of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and southwest Atlantic basin are already above that threshold. 

USDA: Solar Energy Development Varies by Region

Solar energy development has been concentrated in the Atlantic and West regions of the United States, especially in California, North Carolina, and Massachusetts, according to new data from USDA’s Economic Research Service. These states are among those with policies that have promoted renewable energy development—much of it occurring in rural areas. Between 2016 and 2020, utility-scale solar capacity in rural areas more than doubled, increasing to 45 gigawatts, 3.7 percent of U.S. electric power capacity, and the number of solar projects increased from 2,316 to 3,364. Roughly 70 percent of the solar projects installed between 2009 and 2020 in rural areas were located on agricultural land. About 336,000 acres of rural land were estimated to have been directly affected by solar development. USDA reported the data in a recent report that examined land cover and land cover change associated with solar and wind farms over the period 2009–20.

Rock the Crop Sweepstakes deadline is June 6

Firestone Ag, a business of Bridgestone Americas, will close entries for the 2024 Rock the Crop Sweepstakes on June 6. This year's sweepstakes is open exclusively for chapters of the National FFA Organization. One lucky FFA chapter will receive a private on-farm concert with Nashville-based country artist Hailey Whitters along with and educational session with Firestone Ag field engineers to learn about farm tires. This is the third year Firestone Ag has offered the Rock the Crop Sweepstakes, but the first time it has been exclusive to FFA members as the organizations celebrate 80 years of FFA support by Firestone Ag. Merritt Gilbert of Firestone says, "as we mark this milestone for Firestone Ag and FFA, we're excited to share this fun and unique entertainment and educational opportunity with young people who are interested and invested in agriculture.” The 2024 Rock the Crop entries must be submitted by FFA chapter advisors on behalf of the members before June 6, 2024. Complete rules and instructions are available online.

Friday Watch List

Markets

U.S. durable goods orders for April are set for release at 7:30 a.m. CDT Friday, followed by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for May at 9 a.m. USDA's monthly cold storage and cattle on-feed reports will be out at 2 p.m. Dow Jones survey expects USDA to find 11.5 million head of cattle on feed as of May 1, down 0.9% from a year ago.

Weather

A front continues to be active from the Southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic on Friday and will produce some pockets of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be severe. But the bigger threat is a system moving through the Northern Plains into Ontario for the day. It has already produced a significant batch of severe thunderstorms overnight, now getting into Iowa. The front to the system will either continue this line of storms or form a new one later in the day centered on Illinois that could also produce severe storms. And has been the case all week, heavy rain will also be a possibility.

Coalition Urges Congressional Fix to Prop 12

The National Pork Producers Council and the American Farm Bureau led a coalition of over 900 ag stakeholders in supporting a federal fix to California’s Prop 12 in the next farm bill. In a letter to House Ag Committee leadership, the coalition highlighted several problematic parts of the proposition, including marketplace mayhem. The coalition says Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack warned the House Ag Committee that unless Congress provides a solution to Prop 12, there will be “chaos in the marketplace.” Prop 12 could inspire a patchwork of state laws to fuel consolidation. Without congressional action, the letter says producers are “at risk” of arbitrary and conflicting state laws in all 50 states. Prop 12 may also lead to international trade retaliation, adding that Canada has already raised concerns. The letter also says the U.S. Supreme Court and Secretary Vilsack agree that only Congress has the authority to handle this issue.  

House Farm Bill Draws More Support Ahead of Markup

U.S. ag groups continue to react to the House Ag Committee’s farm bill ahead of markup on May 23. The National Corn Growers Association says many of the recommendations in the bill written by Ag Committee Chair GT Thompson would be an improvement upon existing programs for the nation’s corn growers. The Food and Agriculture Climate Alliance (FACA) says several of its recommendations are included that will help their industries achieve their climate mitigation potential while preserving and creating new economic opportunities. The American Farm Bureau says the House farm bill includes much-needed investment in the farm safety net, including making crop insurance more affordable. The Farm Credit Council applauds the legislation for including bipartisan credit provisions that would make it simpler and less expensive for beginning farmers to get the financing they need. The American Sheep Industry also says the bill is favorable in helping its producers manage risk.

Thompson Proceeding with Farm Bill Markup

The markup for House Ag Committee Chair GT Thompson’s farm bill will move ahead on Thursday despite scores from the Congressional Budget Office that raise questions. The CBO says the scores provided don’t amount to offsets that would allow the bill to be budget-neutral. That term means it wouldn’t cost more than the current spending level. The Fence Post says Thompson believes the committee should still go through the process even though the bill isn’t fully offset. One of Thompson’s aides pointed out that the CBO won’t provide a formal score until after the committee votes on the bill and moves it to the House floor for action. It’s also important to move on the bill because it’s being considered under the May 2023 budget baseline. CBO will revise the baseline in June, meaning the entire bill would have to get rewritten under the new baseline, which could take months.

May is World Trade Month

May is World Trade Month, and this is World Trade Week on the calendar. The USDA says it’s the perfect opportunity to highlight the importance of trade to the farm sector and the nation as a whole. Roughly about 20 percent of all U.S. agricultural production gets exported, providing a critical source of farm income, supporting over a million jobs, and generating nearly $200 billion in additional economic activity each year in our rural communities and beyond. U.S. agricultural imports have grown significantly, posting the three highest years in history from 2001-2004. Some of the agency’s trade policy and market development work is behind the scenes, including efforts to knock down trade barriers like India’s tariffs on U.S. poultry and berries which were reduced in March. Some of the work is more forward-facing, like the trade missions and trade shows that put producers and exporters in direct contact with potential customers.

Ag Groups Get Federal Funds From RAPP

The American Feed Industry Association has received $800,000 in federal funding through the USDA’s Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP). “This support will enable us to expand our efforts in developing and expanding export markets for U.S. animal food products,” says AFIA President and CEO Constance Cullman. In 2023, the overall export value for feed, feed ingredients, and pet food stood at $13.4 billion, and the total volume of exports of these products amounted to 19.8 million metric tons. “That demonstrates the significant role the animal food industry plays in overall U.S. ag exports,” she adds. The American Soybean Association, ASA’s World Initiative for Soy in Human Health Program, and the U.S. Soybean Export Council also received funding under RAPP. “New international markets are critical to sustaining U.S. soybean growers’ success,” says ASA President Josh Gackle. “This program will open new opportunities for success while improving on the success of other programs.”

Farmers Finding Out Carbon Equals Cash

Truterra, an agricultural sustainability business, announced that its carbon sequestration program has paid more than $21 million to farmers for sequestration and reduction of over 1.1 million metric tons of carbon in its first three years. The program has also seen significant growth in enrolled acres. In 2023, total acres increased by 99 percent over 2022. In 2022, the total acres enrolled increased by 151 percent over 2021. The company says its carbon program is gaining momentum as a leader among farmers and retailers. “Our differentiated approach matches agronomics with economics to help farmers make sustainable practice changes,” says Truterra President Jamie Leifker. “What’s more, these carbon assets could help organizations with sustainability goals if they make agriculture a part of their toolkit of solutions.” Truterra’s carbon program is also experiencing growth in farmer participation. In 2023, the number of farmers in the program grew by 58 percent compared to 2022.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales will be out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Thursday, the same time as weekly U.S. jobless claims and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor. U.S. new home sales for April will be out at 9 a.m., followed by the U.S. Energy Department's weekly natural gas storage report at 9:30 a.m. More rain is expected to keep field conditions wet in Nebraska and Iowa after Tuesday's storms.

Weather

A front that has stalled itself out near the Ohio River will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Southern Plains up through the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Some of those thunderstorms could be severe. Another system is entering the Northern and Central Plains and will produce showers and thunderstorms of its own. Severe weather will occur with this storm as well, with the greatest threat in eastern Nebraska.

USDA Awards $300 Million to Diversify Export Markets

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack says USDA is allocating $300 million to 66 organizations under the new Regional Agricultural Promotion Program. The funds will be used to build demand for American food and farm exports in high-potential markets around the world. Vilsack launched RAPP in October 2023, authorizing $1.2 billion in Commodity Credit Corporation funding to help American exporters expand their customer base beyond established markets. “By enabling U.S. exporters to expand their footprint in diverse and dynamic new markets, RAPP will help make them more competitive and resilient in an increasingly volatile global trade environment,” Vilsack says. “We know the potential is there, but it takes time and money to grow new markets.” The funding is designed to focus on regions like Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, and South and Southeast Asia, where consumer demand and purchasing power are growing. “USDA is pleased to provide help accessing these opportunities,” Vilsack adds.

Groups Receive RAPP Funding for Export Development

Multiple major U.S. agricultural organizations were pleased to receive funding allocations from the USDA’s Regional Agricultural Promotion Program. One of the groups, the U.S. Meat Export Federation, is “honored and grateful” for the funding from RAPP. “This additional investment in foreign market development is very timely and will be especially helpful in expanding demand for U.S. red meat in emerging markets,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. Ryan LeGrand, President and CEO of the U.S. Grains Council, says RAPP funding is a game changer. “This will allow a significant expansion of the great work that the Council and staff are already doing worldwide,” LeGrand says. Food Export-Midwest and Food Export-Northeast are also thrilled to receive funding under RAPP. Food Export-Midwest and Food Export-Northeast CEO Brendan Wilson says it’s a privilege to empower small and medium-sized businesses in their 23 member states to sell their food and agricultural products internationally. 

Biofuel Groups Ask Supreme Court for SRE Review

The Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy petitioned the Supreme Court requesting a review of the Fifth Circuit Appeals Court’s decision on small refinery exemptions. Biodiesel Magazine says the groups want the nation’s highest court to review the November 2023 opinion regarding the EPA’s denial of several small refinery exemption petitions. In April 2022, the Environmental Protection Agency denied 36 SREs that had been filed under the Renewable Fuel Standard. Those petitions were filed by 36 small refineries located in 18 states. The Fifth Circuit Court vacated the EPA denials in a divided 2-1 opinion. “As our petition makes clear, the Fifth Circuit Court never should have heard this challenge brought by refiners,” says Geoff Cooper of the RFA. “EPA decisions on small refinery exemptions are national in scope because the RFS establishes requirements for the nation. The D.C. Circuit Court is the only proper venue for reviewing the decision.”

USDA Report Shows Ag Export Volume by Commodity

Export markets are an important sales outlet for American food and agricultural production. Since 2008, an average of 20 percent of the value of all U.S. agricultural output has been shipped to destinations in other countries. The export market is a growing one for U.S. non-manufactured products, a group that includes commodities like grains, oilseeds, and produce. In the last decade, the exports of these commodities have increased as a percent of production at a rate of 1.4 percent annually. For commodities such as food grains, exports make up about 65 percent of the production value. Fruits and tree nut exports make up 44 percent of the production value. In contrast, the U.S. exports a lower share of the value of manufactured goods, including sweeteners, bakery products, and dairy products. This overall share has been declining since 2012, indicating that a greater percentage of production is being retained for domestic consumption.

FCA Among Top Ten Places to Work

The Farm Credit Administration earned a top ten ranking in the 2023 Best Places to Work in the Federal Government survey. It placed fifth among 30 small federal agencies, defined as those having at least 100 but less than 1,000 employees. FCA’s overall “engagement and satisfaction” score was 83.5, up from last year’s 80.2. The score was based on employee responses to three questions related to FCA being a good place to work, job satisfaction, and overall satisfaction with the organization. Among the other key rankings for FCA in the small agency category are 86.8 in Diversity, 94 in Effective Leadership, an 84 in Accessibility, an 84.3 in Professional Development, and an 88 in Work-Life Balance. “FCA’s roster of top-notch employees remains focused on ensuring the Farm Credit System is a dependable source of credit,” says FCA Board Member Jeffery Hall. “The survey ranking is a testament to our talented workforce.”

April Milk Production Drops Slightly

Milk production in the 24 major milk-producing states during April reached 18.3 billion pounds, down 0.2 percent from April 2023. March’s revised milk production, at 18.9 billion pounds, was down 0.5 percent from March 2023. The March revision represented an increase of 78 million pounds, or 0.4 percent, from last month’s preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major states averaged 2,064 pounds for April, eight pounds higher than April 2023. The number of milk cows in the 24 states was 8.89 million head, 55,000 fewer than in April 2023 and 6,000 head less than March 2024. Milk production in April totaled 19.1 billion pounds, down 0.4 percent from April 2023. Production per cow in the United States averaged 2,049 pounds for April, nine pounds higher than April 2023. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.34 million head, 74,000 fewer head than last April.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. existing home sales for April will be out at 9 a.m. CDT Wednesday, followed by the Energy Department's weekly inventory report at 9:30 a.m. Minutes from the latest Fed meeting will be released at 1 p.m. Traders continue to keep close watch over the latest weather forecasts.

Weather

A strong system that brought heavy rain and severe weather to the Upper Midwest Tuesday will have its cold front settle near the Ohio River for Wednesday, which should remain active. The southern end of the front, which goes back down into Texas, may be more active with a higher risk of severe weather. Heavy rain along the front could cause flooding over the next few days.

Groups React to House Farm Bill Ahead of Markup

Some of America’s leading agricultural organizations are reacting to the House version of the farm bill put forth by Ag Committee Chair GT Thompson ahead of markup on May 23. American Soybean Association President Josh Gackle believes the legislation will significantly enhance the effectiveness and accessibility of the farm safety net. The National Sorghum Producers say the legislation will reinforce the safety net and strengthen crop insurance and conservation programs. The American Farm Bureau points out that the conservation and research programs help farmers protect the resources they’ve been entrusted with and allow American ag to innovate. U.S. Wheat Associates says the food aid programs in the House farm bill ensure that more food will go directly into the bellies of hungry people around the world. Corey Rosenbusch, president of The Fertilizer Institute, says the text will encourage greater adoption of nutrient stewardship and conservation practices by growers across the country.

Funds to Help Specialty Crop Exports

Alexis Taylor, USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, announced funding for the first five projects under the new Assisting Specialty Crop Export initiative. The ASCE initiative is designed to create more, new, and better markets at home and abroad for U.S. producers and agribusinesses. The partnership between USDA and the specialty crops sector will focus on projects to address non-tariff trade barriers that hinder U.S. exports of fruits and vegetables, tree nuts, horticultural crops, and related products. “We’re excited to be accepting proposals from partners interested in implementing projects that will target cross-cutting issues that were identified in our discussions with a diverse set of stakeholders,” Taylor says. “Specialty crop exports totaled $25.8 billion last year, increasing the bottom line for our producers and driving economic development in local communities and beyond.” She also says the agency looks forward to expanding specialty crop exports and generating more benefits.

Sheep Industry Working on Possible FMD Response

The American Sheep Industry Association was awarded a grant of over $111,000 from the National Disease Preparedness and Response Program. The goal is to evaluate the traceability of livestock marketed in an auction setting utilizing electronic identification in a Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak through collaboration with industry and state partners. The collaboration’s purpose is to demonstrate how electronic ID systems when utilized in a livestock auction market setting, can enhance animal disease traceability and decrease response time in a Foreign Animal Disease outbreak. ASI will accomplish this by simulating two FMD outbreak trace exercises of animals like sheep, goats, and cattle sold through Oregon livestock markets. The first exercise will be based on the current animal ID system used by the livestock auction markets to provide rapid animal movement traceability information to state animal health officials. The second has to do with an electronic ID system in auction markets.

Watch Out for Asian Longhorned Ticks

The invasive Asian longhorned tick can pose a risk to humans, animals, and livestock. University of Illinois Extension found it in west central Illinois for the first time. Asian longhorned ticks were first found in the U.S. in 2017, but they’ve likely been here longer and are now confirmed in 19 other states. The Asian longhorned tick is an invasive pest of concern for livestock because severe infestations can impact livestock production. Teresa Steckler of Illinois Extension is a commercial agriculture specialist in cattle who says Asian longhorned ticks have been found in large numbers on livestock, sheep, and cattle so far, resulting in severe distress and, in some cases, death. “Spring is a busy time for farmers and ranchers as they put cattle out to pasture, but it’s important that producers take some time to look for tick infestations,” Steckler says. “People need to be more vigilant and take precautions.” 

USDA Recruiting Exporters for September Trade Mission to Vietnam

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service is now accepting applications from current and potential U.S. exporters for a trade mission to Vietnam September 9-13. Participants will attend events in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi (ha-NOY), and will also engage with buyers from Burma, Cambodia, and Thailand. “Southeast Asian markets hold immense opportunity for U.S. exporters,” says Alexis Taylor, USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs. “In 2023, the U.S. exported $3.1 billion worth of agricultural products to Vietnam, maintaining a sizable market share across several food and ag-related categories, including cotton, dairy, distillers grains, fresh fruit, poultry, soybeans, and tree nuts.” She also says USDA is confident that the agency can help U.S. exporters grow and diversify their markets in Southeast Asia and boost economic returns for America’s farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses. Trade missions connect key importers for business-to-business meetings and learn more about local and regional market conditions.

Senate Releases Water Infrastructure Bill

Lawmakers released legislation last week authorizing the Army Corps of Engineers to study and carry out a host of water infrastructure and environmental restoration projects across the country. The biennial Water Resources Development Act directs the Army Corps’ flood control, navigation, and ecosystem restoration efforts. The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will mark up the bill on Wednesday. This year’s legislation would focus on protecting communities from increasingly severe floods and droughts and promoting economic activity at the nation’s ports,” says Tom Carper (D-DEL), chair of the committee and the bill sponsor. It includes projects and programs relevant to all 50 states, prioritizes initiatives to help disadvantaged communities, and directs the Army Corps to finish certain previously authorized projects. “From protecting our communities against powerful storms or intense droughts and keeping our waterways active at our ports, the work of the Army Corps strengthens the American economy,” Carper says.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

There are not many reports on Tuesday's docket, but Canada will issue a report on consumer prices for April. Traders continue to keep close watch on the latest weather forecasts and especially any new information from the status of crops in Ukraine and Russia, where conditions are expected to be mostly dry this week.

Weather

A low-pressure center is strengthening in the Upper Midwest for Tuesday. It has already brought heavy rain and thunderstorms to some areas overnight and that will continue through the region throughout the day. Severe storms are looking likely, especially Tuesday afternoon and evening with the greatest threat centered on Iowa but could extend all the way down into Texas. All modes of severe weather are possible for today.

Corn Growers Disappointed in ITC Decision on Imports

The U.S. International Trade Commission agreed to advance a petition by Corteva Agribusiness to place anti-dumping and countervailing duties on imports of 2,4-D shipping from China and India. The National Corn Growers Association says the decision will have a negative impact on U.S. farmers. “We are disappointed that the ITC didn’t listen to the feedback from farmers about how harmful these tariffs can be to rural America,” says NCGA President Harold Wolle (WOOL-lee). “Corn prices are already low, and input costs have been rising, so this decision will only compound our problems.” Six of the nation’s major commodity groups sent a letter to the International Trade Commission in April, encouraging it to vote against advancing the petition. Growers have said the imports covered by this case are the major source of supply other than Corteva, the only U.S. manufacturer. America’s farmers cannot rely upon a sole domestic supplier of 2,4-D.

Farm Bill Reaction Ahead of House Markup

House Agriculture Committee Ranking Member David Scott says the discussion draft of the farm bill released by Chairman GT Thompson “confirms his worst fears.” He accuses Republicans of planning to pay for the farm bill by taking food out of the mouths of hungry children. “They’re also restricting farmers from receiving the climate-smart conservation funding they so desperately need,” Scott adds. “The draft also bars the USDA from providing financial assistance to farmers in times of crisis.” The National Pork Producers Council applauded Thompson’s discussion draft, saying he listened to stakeholders before putting pen to paper. “He addressed the most pressing issues facing agriculture, and that’s how government should work,” says NPPC President Lori Stevermer. Among the key inclusions in Thompson’s draft are legislative solutions to the problems triggered by California’s Proposition 12 and language preserving the resources needed to protect the nation’s food supply through foreign animal disease prevention.

Winter Wheat Tour Final Results

The Wheat Quality Council’s Hard Winter Wheat Tour wrapped up last week after three days of scouting 449 fields in Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. Great American Crop Dot Com says the total weighted average yield for hard winter wheat was estimated at 46.5 bushels per acre. That’s over a 50 percent increase from 2023. Last year’s tour estimate was an even 30 bushels per acre. The official tour projection for total wheat production to get harvested in Kansas is 290.4 million bushels. This number is the average of estimated predictions from tour participants who gathered the information. Based on May 1 conditions, NASS predicted the crop to be slightly lower at 267.9 million bushels, with a yield of 38 bushels per acre. Many of those fields are still two to four weeks from harvest, so Kansas Wheat Dot Com says a lot can happen between now and then to affect yield. 

Soybean Seed Costs Have Risen Sharply Since 1997

The Economic Research Service reports that the cost of soybean seeds per acre has risen more than 260 percent since 1997, while total soybean production costs have risen 157 percent. “In 1997, U.S. farmers spent an average of $19.72 per acre on soybean seeds,” the ERS report says. “That expense rose by more than 260 percent by 2023 when U.S. farmers were spending $71.03 per acre on soybean seeds.” The agency says much of the cost increases occurred between 1997 and 2010 when seed costs increased by 200 percent. Much of the cost increase for soybean seeds came about because of technological advancements, including changes to planting methods, seeding technologies, and seed quality. “In the mid-1990s, seed companies began selling genetically engineered soybean seeds to farmers,” the report adds. “Regional adoption rates in 1997 were between eight and 21 percent, and by 2002, rates jumped from 60 to 96 percent.”

Grants to Help Dairy Industry with Disease Preparedness

The National Milk Producers Federation received funding from the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service’s Animal Disease Preparedness and Response Program. The funding will help with two projects designed to advance cattle disease preparedness. The first award will expand on funding the federation received in 2021 to build the National Dairy Farmers Assuring Responsible Management (FARM) Biosecurity Program. The FARM program provides dairy farmers with the tools to protect the health of their herd and employees from everyday and foreign animal diseases. The second award will bring together stakeholders, including dairy cooperatives, milk haulers, milk testing labs, state and federal health officials, and National Animal Health Laboratory Network lab directors to conduct a gap analysis and create a report outlining current capabilities and guidance for the industry and policymakers to implement a foot-and-mouth disease diagnostic using bulk tank milk samples to provide herd-level disease surveillance in the event of an outbreak.

Clover Campaign Raises $1.3 Million for 4-H Youth

Tractor Supply Company, in partnership with the National 4-H Council, announced that its Paper Clover Campaign raised over $1.3 million for 4-H youth nationwide, moving the fundraiser’s grand total to over $20 million. “We are filled with gratitude and admiration for how our local communities have shown up to help so many young people across America access 4-H programming,” says John Ordus, chief stores officer at Tractor Supply and a member of the National Council of 4-H board of trustees. “In the span of 13 years, we’ve achieved remarkable results, and we are on pace to reach another milestone even faster.” The biannual Paper Clover fundraiser invites customers to purchase a paper clover at checkout in any Tractor Supply stores nationwide or online at TractorSupply.com. Ninety percent of all donations directly support 4-H youth in the state in which they were made, while the remaining 10 percent support national 4-H programming.

Top 5 Things to Watch - Wheat, Weather and Cattle Reports

1. This Week's Weather: Several disturbances and systems will move through the country during the week and into the next weekend. This will keep the precipitation pattern active, especially through the Corn Belt. Systems will have slight access to Gulf of Mexico moisture, which can create heavy rain with thunderstorms in the active pattern. Temperatures will be up and down as systems go by but be favored to be cooler in the Northern Plains and Prairies and warmer across the South and East.

2. Wheat Tour Thoughts: We'll recap this past week's Hard Winter Wheat tour, with broader thoughts and reflections from Crops Editor Jason Jenkins. 

3. Bird Flu Numbers Rise: We'll be continuing to report on the situation around highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), or bird flu, in U.S. dairy herds.

4. Cattle Bulls Back in Town: Despite chilling news on bird flu in dairy herds, we're continuing to watch how low herd numbers prop up prices. .

5. Economic Reports This Week: Monday, at 10 a.m. we'll see the latest Grain Inspections report. Milk Production hits at 2 p.m., followed by our coverage of the weekly USDA Crop Progress report at 3 p.m. Tuesday, no reports. Wednesday, at 9 a.m., the Existing Home Sales report is released, and then at 9:30 a.m. the EIA Weekly Petroleum report, including ethanol production and inventory is live. At 11 a.m. is the release of the minutes of the Fed May FOMC meeting. At 2 pm, Broiler Hatchery numbers are available. Thursday reports start early with Grain Export Sales and Initial Jobless Claims out at 7:30 a.m., followed by the 8:45 a.m. S & P flash services and manufacturing PMI. At 9 a.m. is New Home Sales, then Livestock and Poultry Slaughter at 2 p.m.â?¯Friday reports start at 7:30 a.m. with Durable Goods Orders. At 9 a.m. the Consumer Sentiment and the Michigan Consumer Survey numbers drop. At 2 p.m. the latest Cattle on Feed report is out, then the 2:30 p.m. release of the CFTC Commitment of Traders report 

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will catch up on weather events and the latest forecasts from several different crop areas around the world. USDA's report of weekly export inspections is at 10 a.m. CDT Monday and NASS's weekly Crop Progress report is at 3 p.m.

Weather

A system that brought scattered showers and severe storms to the Plains on Sunday is heading through the Midwest on Monday with much of the same. Another system is right on its heels, getting into the Plains Monday night with scattered showers and more severe weather potential.

Stabenow Issues Statement on Farm Bill

House Agriculture Committee Ranking Member David Scott (D-GA) and Senate Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) issued a statement on farm bill development. “House and Senate Democrats remain committed to passing a strong, bipartisan farm bill that strengthens the farm and family safety nets and invests in our rural communities,” they said. “America’s farmers, families, workers, and rural communities deserve the certainty of a five-year farm bill, and everyone knows it must be bipartisan to pass.” The Democratic leaders also say House Republicans are undermining this goal by proposing policies that split the bipartisan coalition that has always been the foundation of a successful farm bill. “We need a farm bill that holds the coalition together and upholds the historic tradition of providing food assistance to our most vulnerable Americans while keeping our commitment to farmers every day,” they also say. “We are willing to work on a truly bipartisan farm bill.”

Railroad Staffing Shortages Compromise Safety and Service

Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) called on the six Class One railroads to address severe staffing shortages that are endangering workers, increasing the risk of derailments, and raising costs for farmers, businesses and consumers. She wants the railroads to provide an update on their long-term staffing strategies to get back on track. “Farmer, manufacturers, paper mills, energy producers, and many other industries are dependent on efficient and cost-effective freight rail,” Baldwin says. “Recently, service levels from Class One railroads experienced severe disruptions and certain metrics, particularly staffing, have yet to return to pre-COVID-19 levels.” That means much of the industry is reversing any progress it’s made so far. Since implementing a strategy to reduce costs by using longer trains and fewer staff, Class One railroads have reduced overall staff numbers by 30 percent. That’s compared to a three percent decrease in carloads and a one percent drop in tons of freight.

USB Announces Soy Innovation Challenge Winner

The United Soybean Board is pleased to announce Clean Label Solution as this year’s Soy Innovation Challenge Grand Prize Winner. Through a proprietary fermentation process, Clean Label Solution delivers high-value beef and dairy cattle feed from soybeans and soybean meal. U.S. soybean farmers produce a high-quality and eco-friendly feed ingredient for the livestock supply chain, making soybeans a preferred choice for animal agriculture. The protein in soybeans provides a valuable source of nutrients for cattle, but they can’t consume the soy oil component. In trials of Clean Label Solution’s Bi-Pass Pro+ feed product, cattle could digest 30 percent of the soy protein that otherwise passes through the animal without use. This boosts milk and meat production while curbing methane emissions. It also offers a more sustainable ingredient that replaces the need for palm oil in cow feed. The Soy Checkoff is proud to grant Clean Label Solution with a $75,000 prize.

Beef Organizations Concerned About Imports

Leaders of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association along with their Canadian and Mexican counterparts signed a joint statement pledging to work together on a number of issues. The three organizations will continue advocating for greater oversight of emerging lab-grown proteins, protecting cattle from animal diseases, and promoting the sustainability of the cattle industry. “The signing of this joint statement is an important step that unites cattle producers across North America and around the world to promote and protect efficient cattle production,” says NCBA President Mark Eisele (EYES-lee). The three organizations also signed a letter to the U.S., Mexican, and Canadian governments asking them to re-engage in opening markets for beef exports and provide stronger science-based oversight of beef imports. Unfortunately, the three governments have expanded market access for beef imports while providing fewer opportunities for beef exports. Continuing this will only put North American cattle producers at a competitive disadvantage.

AEM Pleased With Turnout on the National Mall

The Association of Equipment Manufacturers were pleased with this year’s Celebration of Modern Agriculture on the National Mall in Washington, D.C. The event facilitated an array of substantial policy discussions with the agency officials who directly impact regulations critical to the equipment industry. More than 15,000 people attended the three-day event, which featured combine harvesters, milking equipment, sprayers, planters, irrigation equipment, and tractors of all sizes. “We had equipment and experts on-site to discuss PFAS, emissions, and autonomy with the heads of divisions at EPA and the Labor Department who oversee those issues,” says AEM Senior Vice President Curt Blades. “We dove into many topics because engagement like that doesn’t happen every day.” Nick Tindall, AEM Senior Director of Regulatory Affairs, says the interactions went further than political appointees. “Scores of career staff swarmed our exhibits,” Tindall says. “Those are the people who will impact regulations for decades to come.”

Farm Bill Lobbying Exceeds $500 Million

A new report from The Hill says that pharmaceutical, manufacturing, and agriculture interests have combined to spend over $400 million lobbying Congress on a new farm bill. The Union for Concerned Scientists says that’s more than four times the amount of money spent by the public sector and civil society. The report also found that between 2019 and 2023, giant agribusinesses, food and agriculture industry associations, and other interest groups reported a combined $523 million in federal lobby expenditures on disclosure reports that listed ‘farm bill’ among the specific lobbying issues. “Lobbying by the agribusiness sector has steadily increased,” the report says. “In just the last five years, the agribusiness sector’s annual lobbying expenditures have risen 22 percent, totaling more on federal lobbying than the oil and gas industry and the defense sector.” Top lobbying spenders included the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the American Farm Bureau Federation, and Koch Industries. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

The U.S. report of leading economic indicators for April is due out at 9 a.m. CDT Friday. Traders continue to keep watch on the latest weather forecasts in several major crop regions.

Weather

A storm system, though pretty weak, continues to move east of the Mississippi River with scattered showers and thunderstorms for Friday. Pockets of heavy rain and severe weather across the Gulf Coast are also expected for Friday. Another system is wrapping up in the Canadian Prairies with scattered showers there and into the Northern Plains, with a risk of severe storms there as well.

Grocery Prices Drop in April

The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the food price index was unchanged in April after increasing 0.1 percent in March. The index for food at home decreased 0.2 percent during the month. Three of the six major grocery store food group indexes decreased in April, while the remaining three had price increases. The price index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs decreased by 0.7 percent in April, led by a 7.3 percent decline in the egg index. The fruits and vegetables index declined 0.8 percent over the month. The index for cereals and bakery products increased 0.6 percent in April. The index for other food at home and the index for dairy and related products both increased 0.1 percent during the month. The food away from home index rose 0.3 percent in April, as it did in March. The food-at-home index rose 1.1 percent during the past 12 months.

Groups Ask Treasury for Prompt 45Z Credit Guidance

Twenty-five trade associations representing producers, feedstock providers, blenders, consumers, and retailers of low-carbon biofuels sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. They’re asking the Treasury Department to finalize and publish guidance for the 45Z Clean Fuels Production Credit as soon as possible. The new credit is designed to incentivize domestic production of low-carbon fuels on a technology-neutral basis. The value of the credit is based on the life-cycle greenhouse gas emission score of each fuel. “With the credit set to take effect on January 1, 2025, our member companies may face significant headwinds and business risks if this guidance isn’t published promptly,” the letter says. “Any extended delays in publishing the guidance may disrupt project timelines, impede capital flows, and threaten existing production and demand for low carbon renewable fuels.” Kurt Kovarik, Vice President of Federal Affairs for Clean Fuels Alliance America, says the need for policy certainty is urgent.

USDA Easing Transition to Organic Production

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack announced new programs, partnerships, grant awards, and an additional $10 million in funding to expand markets for organic products and help producers transition to organic production. These programs will support the development of new and better markets for domestic organic products, provide hands-on training to producers making the transition to organic production, and ease the financial burden of obtaining organic certification. “Offsetting the costs for organic transition helps more farmers realize higher margins sooner while giving consumers more access to high-demand organic products,” Vilsack says. “The partnerships and technical support we offer will ease the transition for producers, and the investments in grant projects we’re announcing will reduce the organic industry’s reliance on imports, lower cost barriers for businesses transitioning to organic, and address crucial infrastructure needs.” USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service awarded approximately $24.8 million for 23 grant projects through its Organic Market Development Grant Program. 

Grassley Leads Delegation in Asking for Federal Aid

Senators Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Joni Ernst (R-IA) led the state’s delegation in calling on USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack to swiftly approve Iowa’s request for federal assistance. Governor Kim Reynolds and Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig made the request on behalf of farmers hit by severe storms and tornadoes last month. Reynolds and Naig are seeking immediate issuance of a USDA Secretarial Designation authorizing the Farm Service Agency disaster programs, including the Farm Loans Program and the Emergency Assistance for Livestock Program. The USDA designation would assist farmers in eight counties while recovering from April’s storms. “We respectfully ask that you activate any and all eligible assistance for the affected eight counties as a result of severe storms, including 24 tornadoes that impacted Iowa on April 26-27,” the letter says. “A significant emergency response was needed as a result of these severe storms that damaged grain bins and farm equipment.”

Renewable Diesel Glut His Refiner Profits

U.S. fuel makers recently rushed to redo their production plants and make them capable of producing renewable diesel. Reuters says that rush has created an excess supply of the low-emissions biofuel that’s shrinking refiner profit margins and threatening to slow or halt the development of what’s still a young industry. Turmoil in the renewable diesel and biodiesel sector could become a significant roadblock to future investments in biofuels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says that could potentially stall the transition away from fossil fuels. There’s so much supply available that some producers have shut down plants this year, and industry stakeholders say more are likely to go out of business before the end of 2024. U.S. renewable diesel production capacity nearly quadrupled following COVID-19 from 79 million gallons a year in 2021 to three billion gallons by 2023 as refiners were seeking ways to survive the transition away from petroleum-based products.

Retaliation Fears After Administration Increases Chinese Tariffs

President Biden increased tariffs on Chinese goods under Section 301 of 1974’s Trade Act. The hike goes on $18 billion worth of imports from China, prompting significant concerns that China might impose tariffs on the U.S. agricultural products that the Asian nation imports. U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai says the move is a response to China’s “unfair and anticompetitive economic practices.” Tariffs are going up on critical manufacturing and mining sectors, including steel, aluminum, semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, solar cells, and certain critical minerals. National Journal notes that Biden “doubled down” on former President Trump’s tariff policies, keeping the Trump tariffs in force and imposing even more in an effort to keep China from dominating the emerging clean-energy global market. CNN says China has vowed to “resolutely defend its interests” because of the new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports and says these barriers would affect the two countries’ “wider relationship.”

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales will be out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Thursday, the same time as weekly U.S. jobless claims, April U.S. housing starts and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor. A report on U.S. industrial production is set for 8:15 a.m., followed by the U.S. Energy Department's weekly natural gas storage report at 9:30 a.m. At 2 p.m., USDA's Livestock, Dairy and Poultry outlooks will be released.

Weather

A system is stretched out from the Upper Midwest down through Texas and will proceed slowly eastward for Thursday. While thunderstorms will be possible in the Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley, the best chances for severe storms will occur across Texas. Heavy rain will accompany the thunderstorms, which could produce flooding there and eastward across the Gulf Coast going through Thursday night. Another system has entered the Canadian Prairies and will be active there and the Northern Plains with scattered showers.

Legislators Want $1.2 Billion for Conservation Funding

Senators Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Chris Coons (D-DEL), along with 24 of their Senate colleagues, called on the Senate Appropriations Committee to fully fund agricultural conservation programs in the FY 2025 funding bill. “Land-based mitigation measures in agriculture, forestry, and other land use sectors represent some of the most important options currently available for large-scale emissions reductions and the removal and storage of carbon dioxide at scale,” the senators wrote in a letter to Appropriations Committee leadership. “We need strong investments in USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation staff and resources to support farmers, ranchers, and foresters to help mitigate and adapt to climate change.” The senators highlighted the success of ag conservation programs like EQIP, the Conservation Stewardship Program, and many others. They want full farm bill funding for these programs that provide technical and planning assistance to farmers and help producers across the country manage their working lands more sustainably.

Organic Posts Record Sales in 2023

U.S. sales of certified organic products approached $70 billion in 2023, a new record for the sector. Dollar sales for the American organic marketplace hit $69.7 billion last year, up 3.4 percent. That’s according to the 2024 Organic Industry Survey released this week by the Organic Trade Association. Despite stubborn price inflation seen throughout retail stores, consumers still looked for the USDA Organic label in good numbers. The organic marketplace recalibrated its supply chain and reconciled the cost of doing business in part with increased retail pricing. Produce held its spot as the largest organic category in 2023, continuing to be the primary point of entry for consumers into the organic market. In 2023, the produce category grew by 2.6 percent to $20.5 billion. Top sellers in the organic produce section were avocados, berries, apples, carrots, and pre-packaged salads. The second biggest category was grocery sales at $15.4 billion.

CropLife American Applauds Miscellaneous Tariff Bill

CropLife America applauds the introduction of the Miscellaneous Tariff Bill sponsored by House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee Chair, Representative Adrian Smith (R-NE). The bill supports manufacturers, farmers, consumers, and communities by reducing or eliminating tariffs, on a temporary basis, on products that aren’t available in the U.S. The previous MTB expired in December 2020, resulting in businesses and their customers paying more than $1.5 billion in anticompetitive tariffs, equal to $1.3 million per day. That money should and can be invested in job creation and innovation. “CLA is appreciative of Representative Smith’s leadership in this first step to re-establish an MTB process that’s fully retroactive,” says Alexandra Dunn, CLA president and CEO. “This allows for investments to support research and development of the important innovations and technology farmers need to grow the world’s food, fiber, fuel, and other pesticides needed to keep our communities safe from pests and diseases.”

USDA Investing $250 Million to Reduce Wildfire Risk

Deputy USDA Secretary Xochitl (so-CHEEL) Torres Small announced that $250 million is available to help at-risk communities protect homes, businesses, and infrastructures from catastrophic wildfires. The announcement through the Community Wildfire Defense Grant Program will fund 158 projects to help communities in 31 states, two territories, and 11 tribes to develop community wildfire protection plans, which include removing overgrown vegetation that can fuel fires that threaten lives, livelihoods, and resources. Last year, more than two million Americans were displaced by extreme weather events, including wildfires. Now in its second year, the Community Wildfire Defense Grant program helps communities in the wildland-urban interface maintain resilient landscapes, create fire-adapted communities, and ensure safe, effective wildfire response. Those are all goals unified under the National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy and aligned with the objectives of the National Climate Resilience Framework. Examples include almost $10 million to Oklahoma’s Cherokee Nation to improve fire mitigation.

Sugarbeet Farmers Want Sugar Policy Support

Two sugarbeet farmers recently took to the pages of their home state papers to praise U.S. sugar policy for helping keep the food supply secure and supporting their family farms. They said that sugar policy must be preserved and strengthened in the next farm bill. Colorado farmer Paul Schlagel (SHLAY-gel) grows sugar beets in Boulder County, Colorado. He wrote an op-ed piece saying the economic pressures and significant cost increases facing farmers require a stronger farm safety net. “It’s more important than ever that we have the strongest safety net possible to sustain current sugar production levels and maintain our national food security,” Schlagel wrote. “Without a strong safety net, family farms like mine would be driven out of business and countless jobs eliminated.” Montana farmer Shane Strecker says the closure of Sidney Sugars in Montana and the resulting economic and job losses were warning signs against weakening the no-cost U.S. sugar policy.

Reminders For Storing Planters When Finished

There’s a lot of other work to be done when planting finishes. The temptation may be to let it sit there until next season. Planter experts say that could mean a risk of problems next spring. “For your planter to run at peak performance, efficiency, and accuracy, what you do now to properly store it is just as important, if not more important, than how you prepare for planting next spring,” says Brad Niensteadt, lead product specialist with Kinze (KIN-zee). He offered a checklist, which includes storing the planter in a sheltered area if possible. Moisture and planters are not a good combination, plus the trade-in value is much better if you keep it inside. Remove all dirt and trash wrapped on sprockets or shafts. Any residue will draw moisture and cause corrosion. Make sure you clean drive chains and coat them with rust-preventative spray or remove and submerge them in oil.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

The U.S. consumer price index for April will be out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Wednesday, followed by the Energy Department's weekly inventory report at 9:30 a.m. Traders will continue to keep close watch on the latest weather forecasts, checking for planting opportunities in the U.S.

Weather

Two storms continue their slow march through the country as a lead one over the East Coast continues to produce showers there and the far eastern Corn Belt. Meanwhile, a second one that moved into the Plains on Tuesday slowly drifts eastward with scattered showers and thunderstorms for the Western Corn Belt as well. Some severe weather will be possible out of Both storms, with the higher likelihood for strong winds and hail in the southwestern Plains.

Solar Storm Knocks Out GPS During Planting

While a solar storm brought the aurora borealis to a large part of the U.S., it also played havoc with farmers in the middle of spring planting. 404 Media says the storm broke critical GPS and precision farming abilities in tractors and agricultural equipment at a time when they’re especially important. These outages forced many farmers to momentarily bring their planting to a stop. One chain of John Deere dealerships gave farmers a heads-up that some of the systems in their tractors were “extremely compromised.” They said farmers planting crops while the precision equipment was compromised may face problems when they go to harvest. Nebraska farmer Kevin Kennedy told 404 Media that all of his tractors were sitting at the ends of each field and shut down because of the solar storm. Dennis Wolf of South Dakota said his equipment showed the tractor going in circles and the auto steer didn’t work.

Key State in Brazil Still Battling Intense Flooding

Rio Grande (GRAN-day) do Sul, one of the biggest soy and rice producers in Brazil continues to experience intense flooding. France 24 Dot Com says the region had been counting on a record harvest of over 22 million tons of soybeans, but extreme weather could affect five million tons of the harvest. Before the rain began, a quarter of the soybean fields were left to be harvested. Nilvo Bosa (BO-sah), president of a small farmer cooperative, says, “In a year, we have suffered drought and three floods, including this one, which reached levels we’ve never seen before.” He also says farmers in Rio Grande do Sul cannot access their fields at all because they are under 13 to 16 feet of water. About 15 percent of Brazil’s rice was waiting to get harvested before the floods came, and the government has already announced plans to import rice to counter any potential shortfall.

Four-Wheel-Drive Tractor Sales Higher in April

U.S. sales of four-wheel-drive tractors increased 24 percent in April compared to 2023. That’s according to new data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. Also, U.S. four-wheel-drive tractor sales are up 1.9 percent year-to-date. Unit sales of 100-plus horsepower tractors in April increased by 7.2 percent compared to last year, which followed a March jump of 3.2 percent. Combine sales also increased in April, growing 6.7 percent compared to 2023. “The modest growth in four-wheel-drive tractor sales in April is an indicator of the resilience of the overall agricultural industry,” says AEM Senior Vice President Curt Blades. “The smaller horsepower market continues to be a challenge, but we remain optimistic for the long-term strength of the ag equipment market.” Combine sales in Canada shot 73.5 percent higher in April compared to last year and are 17.7 percent higher to date in 2024. Canadian four-wheel-drive tractors grew 7.2 percent compared to 2023.

House Ag Chair Releases Detailed Farm Bill Proposal

House Ag Committee Chair G.T. Thompson (R-PA) released a more detailed, title-by-title overview of his farm bill proposal. The National Sorghum Producers say the chairman has been consistent in his messaging that the farm bill must be highly effective for producers and, by any measure, his framework makes some strides on behalf of America’s farm and ranch families. The full overview includes many key provisions like increasing the statutory reference prices by 10 to 20 percent for all covered commodities in Title 1. His proposal increases the Agricultural Risk Coverage guarantee to 90 percent of the benchmark revenue and expands the maximum payment band to 12.5 percent for both ARC-IC and ARC-CO. It also increases marketing loan rates for most commodities. National Sorghum Producers and other organizations will sort through the details during the next week. A full draft could come next week, and Thompson has markup scheduled for May 23.

Milk Producers Pleased with Progress in D.C.

Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, commended House Ag Chair G.T. Thompson for including language in the House farm bill regarding the Class 1 mover. Thompson’s proposal would restore the previous “higher of” Class 1 Mover Formula. The prior mover served well for decades, while the current mover has cost farmers more than $1 billion in Class 1 skim milk revenue and undermined orderly milk marketing. “We are also grateful for the inclusion of language to require mandatory manufacturing plant cost studies to help inform future discussions on make allowances,” Doud says. The Federation also thanked Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack and federal leadership for offering assistance to dairy producers as they meet the challenges of H5N1 in dairy cattle. “We look forward to collaborating with USDA and other agencies as we monitor and contain this outbreak and do what we can to help our farmers,” Doud adds.

Alabama Bans Cultured Meat

Alabama is now the second state in the nation to ban the sale of cultured meat. Last week, Governor Kay Ivey signed SB23 into law, making the manufacture, sale, or distribution of food products produced from cultured animal cells a Class C misdemeanor as of October 1. According to the bill, civil penalties could range from $100 for a Class 2 violation up to $10,000 for a Class 5 violation for food sales establishments that violate the provisions of the bill. However, Feedstuffs says the legislation doesn’t prevent any federal institution of higher education or a person who’s partnered with a governmental entity or higher educational institution from conducting research in Alabama regarding the production of cultivated food products. Alabama’s ban follows Florida’s legal precedent taken earlier this month. Florida governor Ron DeSantis says his state will increase meat production and encourage residents to consume 100 percent real beef.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

The U.S. Labor Department's producer price index for April will be out at 7:30 a.m. CDT, another clue for Fed policy. Brazil's crop agency, Conab, is expected to release new estimates for Brazil's corn and soybean production early Tuesday.

Weather

A system is slowly moving through the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning and will bring areas of showers and thunderstorms east of the Mississippi River. Another system is moving into the Northern Plains that will get some showers going there but also a bit farther south in the Central Plains.

May WASDE Includes An initial U.S. Crop Assessment

The May World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report includes USDA’s first assessment of domestic and international supply and demand prospects. The 2024-2025 U.S. corn outlook calls for larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 14.9 billion bushels, down three percent from last year. The yield projection is 181 bushels per acre. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is down 25 cents to $4.40. The soybean outlook is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks. The crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels and ending stocks at 4.8 billion bushels, up by eight percent. The season-average price is forecast at $11.20 a bushel, down from $12.55 last year. The wheat forecast is 1.85 billion bushels, up three percent from 2023. Yield will be 48.9 bushels, and the season average price is $6 per bushel.

Winter Wheat Production Forecast is Up Two Percent

U.S. farmers are expected to produce 1.28 billion bushels of winter wheat this year, according to the Crop Production Report released last week by USDA’s Natural Agricultural Statistics Service. In the first winter wheat production forecast for NASS, production is expected to increase by two percent from last year. As of May 1, the U.S. yield is expected to average 50.7 bushels per acre, up by 0.1 bushels from last year’s average of 50.6 bushels per acre. Hard Red Winter Wheat production is forecast at 705 million bushels, up 17 percent from a year ago. Soft Red Winter Wheat, at 344 million bushels, is expected to decrease by 23 percent from 2023. White Winter Wheat is forecast at 229 million bushels, up 16 percent from last year. Of the White Winter Wheat production, 17.3 million bushels are Hard White, and 211 million bushels are Soft White. NASS surveyed approximately 8,300 producers.

Bill Would Strengthen Crop Insurance

Brad Finstad (R-MN) and Michelle Fischbach (R-MN) introduced the Federal Agriculture Risk Management Enhancement and Resilience Act into the House last week. The FARMER Act is intended to strengthen crop insurance and make higher levels of coverage more affordable for producers. The Act would increase premium support for higher levels of crop insurance coverage, which will enhance affordability and reduce the need for ad-hoc disaster assistance. It would improve the Supplemental Coverage Option by increasing premium support and expanding the coverage level, providing producers with an additional level of protection. The legislation would direct the Risk Management Agency to conduct a study to improve the effectiveness of SCO in large counties. “Farming is one of the most honorable professions in our country,” says Finstad. “Crop insurance is their number one risk management tool, providing certainty they need to feed the world.” Senator John Hoeven (R-ND) introduced companion legislation in the Senate.

Farmers Get Good Money for Leasing to Solar Companies

Solar energy is gaining traction across the country, and Farm Journal says it’s surprising how much solar companies pay farmers to lease their ground. A survey of farmers shows the majority are being offered more than $1,000 per acre by companies for solar leasing, and that possibly could drive up the price of future cash rental rates. The Purdue University Ag Economy Barometer recently asked how many farmers had engaged with companies about leasing land for solar installation. “It was 19 percent who said they’ve had discussions, which is a big percentage of respondents who’ve had those conversations,” says Purdue economist Michael Langemeier. “That doesn’t mean they’ve signed up, but they’ve actually been approached about it.” The bigger surprise may be the rates companies offered farmers, including 58 percent who say the rates were over $1,000 per acre. Thirty percent say they were offered between $1,000 to $1,250 an acre.

USDA Seeks Partnership Proposals on CRP Benefits

The USDA strongly encourages eligible conservation partners to submit proposals for $10 million in available funds to research the Conservation Reserve Program’s environmental benefits. CRP is one of the world’s largest voluntary conservation programs with an established track record of preserving topsoil, sequestering carbon, reducing nitrogen runoff, and providing healthy wildlife habitat. Funding this research with partners outside of USDA will enable the Farm Service Agency, the agency responsible for administering CRP to best focus the program’s future functionality and goals based on the collective research results. Proposals for funding consideration are due June 7, 2024. Through the CRP Monitoring, Assessment, and Evaluation Program, FSA works with partners to study the benefits of the various ways CRP is implemented. USDA is seeking proposals for projects to survey, sample, and measure ecosystem benefits, citizen science, and in general, evaluate the overall impacts of CRP. All interested organizations are encouraged to apply.

USGC Expanding Opportunities in Established Asian Markets

The U.S. Grains Council recently organized marketing conferences promoting U.S. corn fermented protein (CFP) and dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) in South Korea and Taiwan. Both countries are already important trade partners for U.S. agriculture but still have significant opportunities for growth in CFP and DDGS exports through increasing interest from the animal feed and aquaculture industries in the region. “Taiwanese importers and U.S. producers enjoy a relationship resulting in billions of dollars in sales each year,” says USGC Taiwan Director Michael Lu. “The Council and its partners are working to find avenues to new buyers and introduce different uses to consumers to build an even stronger bond between the U.S. and Taiwanese industries.” Opportunities continue developing in South Korea, one of the top seafood-consuming countries in the world, and its aquaculture industry is expanding to meet that demand. For more information about USGC’s work in Asia, go to grains.org.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will check the latest weather forecasts and any news from the Middle East or pertaining to Russia's wheat crop. USDA's report of weekly export inspections is at 10 a.m. CDT. NASS's weekly Crop Progress report is set for 3 p.m.

Weather

A storm system will bring scattered showers across much of the Corn Belt on Monday. Some pockets of heavy rain will develop, but light to moderate rain is most likely. That is not so for the Gulf Coast which will see areas of heavy rain and severe weather throughout the day. Another system is bringing showers to the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies as well as our active pattern continues.