Stabenow: No New Farm Bill Without SNAP, Climate Funds

For the first time, Senate Ag Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow says she’ll push a new farm bill further into the future rather than strike a deal with Republicans on SNAP and climate spending changes. The Fence Post says she won’t agree to limit any updates to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or cut any climate-smart conservation money in the Inflation Reduction Act. “I’m not going to do it,” she says. “If that means we continue the policies of the 2018 Farm Bill, which were pretty good if I do say so myself, then that’s okay.” Stabenow sat next to Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack during an event at the White House this week, and he said, “You’re tough. That’s great.” Stabenow has said privately for months that her legacy depends on protecting climate funding as well as not cutting anti-hunger programs. The current farm bill authorization expires at the end of September.

Bill Further Expands Future Biofuel Usage

Senators Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Pete Ricketts (R-NE) introduced the bipartisan “Renewable Fuels for Ocean-Going Vessels Act.” It will help open new markets for U.S. farmers by encouraging the use of biofuels using homegrown farm products for ships and ocean-going vessels. It will specifically expand markets for American-made biofuels by ensuring that renewable fuels used in ocean-going vessels would be eligible for a renewable fuel credit available for other biofuels. The legislation preserves Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard program when the fuel is used in oceangoing vessels. The RFS currently excludes “fuels used in ocean-going vessels” from the definition of transportation fuels and from refiners’ and blenders’ obligations. Refiners and blenders are required to retire RINs from any biodiesel and renewable diesel used in vessels with Class 3 engines operating in international waters, including the Great Lakes. The bill is widely supported by multiple agricultural groups.

Senators Take Action Against Paraguayan Beef Imports

Senators Mike Rounds (R-SD) and Jon Tester (D-MT) filed a resolution against the Biden administration’s decision to lift a long-standing ban on beef imports from Paraguay. A Congressional Review Act resolution is an oversight tool Congress may use to overturn final rules with a simple majority vote. “Our farmers and ranchers work tirelessly to produce the safest, highest quality, and most affordable beef in the world,” Rounds says. “On the other hand, Paraguay has historically struggled to contain outbreaks of foot and mouth disease.” Tester and Rounds say American consumers should be able to confidently feed their families beef that they know has met the rigorous standards required in the United States. “I’m pleased to be filing this CRA with Senator Tester to overturn this rule that harms American producers and consumers,” Rounds adds. Tester says, “Cutting corners to resume imports from Paraguay is bad news for producers and consumers.”

Purdue: No Increase in Dust Explosions in 2023

A new report from Purdue University says that nationwide grain dust explosions totaled nine incidents in the United States during 2023, resulting in 12 injuries but no fatalities. “Dust explosions are one of the most serious hazards that occur in the grain industry,” says study author Kingsly Ambrose of Purdue University. “The explosions can also lead to significant financial and personal losses due to downtime, repair, injuries, and fatalities.” Last year’s nine incidents were no increase from the nine incidents reported in 2022. The ten-year average of 8.4 explosions remains relatively unchanged. Ambrose says all the big explosions occurred in the Midwest, with most of them taking place in the corn handling or processing industry. The probable ignition sources were identified in two of the cases as fire, with another due to an equipment malfunction, and the others were caused by unknown sources. “Education is the key to prevention,” Ambrose adds.

USDA Webinar on Contracting and Tournaments Final Rule

The USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service will host a webinar on March 7 at noon, eastern time, for U.S. poultry growers. The webinar will allow the agency to share information regarding the “Transparency in Poultry Grower Contracting and Tournaments Final Rule.” Attendees may submit questions in advance at the usda.gov website. Questions will also be taken during the webinar. USDA published the final rule in the Federal Register on November 28, 2023, and it became effective on February 12, 2024. The rule requires Live Poultry Dealers, which are typically large processing companies, to provide poultry growers with whom they contract to raise birds with key information about the terms of their agreements. It also requires additional disclosures by live poultry dealers engaged in the production of broilers who use poultry grower ranking systems to determine settlement payments for broiler growers. More information can be found on the AMS website at ams.usda.gov.

Iowa Farmland Sells for a Near-Record Amount

Not one but two tracts of farmland in Sioux County, Iowa, sold for a near-record $29,600 per acre in a public auction this week. In November 2022, a sale of 73.19 acres in the same county sold for the current state record of $30,000 per acre. A spokesman for Zomer Company Realty and Auction confirmed the Ken and LaDonna Huisman farmland sale totaled 117.41 acres on February 27. The first tract of land was made up of 40 acres and featured half-mile-long rows. With a road and ditch on only one side of the field, 98.7 percent of the tract is tillable. Tract number two is 77.41 acres that are also bordered by one road and is 98.7 percent tillable with half-mile-long rows. Both tracts are subject to a signed easement with the Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline project. The buyer will receive the crop damage payments from Summit at closing.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales will be out at 7:30 a.m. CST, the same time as weekly U.S. jobless claims, the PCE inflation index, U.S. personal incomes and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Energy Department's weekly natural gas storage report will be out at 9:30 a.m.

Weather

A disturbance will provide isolated to scattered rain and snow showers to the Southern Plains today, which could help reduce the wildfire risk across the area. However, portions of Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and northern Kansas will see dry and breezy conditions today, promoting a higher risk for wildfires.

Grassley, Colleagues, Urge Swift E15 Waiver for 2024

Senator Chuck Grassley led an Iowa delegation of lawmakers in a letter urging the Environmental Protection Agency to allow for summertime E15 sales in 2024. Last week, the EPA finalized a rule to approve year-round E15 sales, but delayed implementation until 2025. The rule allows states to use the same volatility limits for E15 and E10 and was in response to a petition by governors of eight midwestern states seeking the year-round availability of E15. The petition includes Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Grassley and the Iowa delegation contend the delay "will have devastating effects on biofuels producers, farmers, and families across the country.” The letter states, “We request, once again, that the EPA immediately implement its rule to ensure E15 is available year-round no later than March 31, 2024." Representatives Zack Nunn, Randy Feenstra, Ashley Hinton, and Marionette Miller-Meeks signed the letter, along with Senators Grassley and Joni Ernst.

USDA Announces Progress on Newly Authorized Climate Programs

The Department of Agriculture Tuesday published the Intent to Establish the Greenhouse Gas Technical Assistance Provider and Third-Party Verifier Program report. Authorized under the Growing Climate Solutions Act, the report explains how the Greenhouse Gas Technical Assistance Provider and Third-Party Verifier Program will facilitate farmer, rancher, and private forest landowner participation in voluntary carbon markets. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says, “This new program will provide resources for producers and landowners, helping them pursue opportunities to generate revenue while benefiting the environment.” The report justifies the Secretary's intent to establish the program following an earlier publication, which found that voluntary carbon markets offer a promising tool to achieve greenhouse gas reductions from the agriculture and forest sectors and support producer livelihoods. USDA will work towards formal establishment of the program in 2024. As a first step, USDA will soon solicit information on protocols to be evaluated for inclusion in the list to be published as part of the program.

Ag Accounted for 10% of 2021 U.S. GHG Emissions

Farming activities in the United States accounted for 10.6 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service. New data released this week shows that from 2020 to 2021, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions remained nearly constant but decreased from 11.1 percent to 10.6 percent as a share of total U.S. emissions because of changes in other industries. The Environmental Protection Agency estimated that in 2021, agriculture emitted 312.6 million metric tons as nitrous oxide, 278.4 million metric tons as methane, 44.7 million metric tons as on-farm carbon dioxide, and 35.7 million metric tons emitted indirectly through the electricity that the agricultural sector uses. Of the common economic sectors in the United States, industry accounted for the largest portion of total greenhouse gas emissions at 30.1 percent, followed by transportation, commercial, residential and agriculture. Total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 were 2.3 percent lower than in 1990.

RMA Expands Insurance Option for Nursery Growers

USDA Risk Management Agency is expanding crop insurance tailored for nursery producers to all counties in all states. Nursery Value Select is a pilot program that enables nursery producers to select the dollar amount of coverage that best fits their risk management needs. Its expansion is part of USDA’s Risk Management Agency efforts to provide insurance options for a broader group of producers, including specialty crop producers. RMA Administrator Marcia Bunger says, "This insurance option meets a critical need of American nursery producers." Nursery Value Select provides similar but improved coverage to the longstanding Nursery Field Grown and Container program. The program also covers field-grown and containerized nursery plants and offers coverage levels between catastrophic and 75 percent. Before the expansion, the program was only available in select counties in nine states. Beginning with the 2025 crop year, Nursery Value Select will be available in all counties in all states.

Gooden Confirmed as Rural Development Undersecretary

The Senate Tuesday confirmed Dr. Basil Gooden as U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Under Secretary for Rural Development. Dr. Gooden has served as Director of State Operations for Rural Development since July 2021, in which role he has led and supported USDA's team of 47 Rural Development State Directors who extend USDA's state-level leadership and help ensure the department's investments reach all rural communities. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says, "Dr. Gooden is a true asset at the People's Department, and I look forward to continuing our work advancing and improving policies that benefit agriculture and rural America." House Agriculture Ranking Member David Scott added, "Dr. Gooden's extensive experience touches on many issues important to rural communities, including affordable housing, wealth development in distressed communities, and improving infrastructure." Gooden will fill the undersecretary position left vacant by Xochitl Torres Small, who was confirmed in July 2023 as Deputy Secretary of Agriculture.

Indigo Ag Announces Record Carbon Crop

Indigo Ag this week announced the successful completion of its third carbon crop. With more than 163,000 carbon credits produced, Indigo is the only company to complete three carbon harvests at scale, and the program continues to show growth with year-over-year increases in the number of farmers paid, fields filed, and credits produced. Since its inception in 2019, farmers participating in Indigo Ag's carbon program have sequestered or abated the equivalent of nearly 300,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide. Indigo Ag CEO Dean Banks says, "Our record breaking third carbon crop reinforces that farmers can earn money and have a real and measurable impact leveraging agricultural soil as one of the world's largest carbon sinks.” Indigo Ag's carbon credits are verified and issued by the Climate Action Reserve. To date, farmers in Indigo Ag's sustainability programs have earned more than $12 million. Farmers are scheduled to be paid for the third carbon crop in March 2024.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

The first revision of Q4 U.S. GDP is set for 7:30 a.m. CST Wednesday. The Energy Department's weekly inventory report follows at 9:30 a.m. and includes weekly ethanol production. Traders remain interested in South American weather and any surprise that may pop up.

Weather

A strong cold front continues its trek across the U.S. on Wednesday, moving through the East Coast by Wednesday evening. Areas of showers and thunderstorms follow the front, and some snow will mix in as well. Temperatures are dropping rapidly behind the front and have become very cold across the Plains and Upper Midwest after the frontal passage Tuesday. Strong winds continue to follow the front as well. Even though it is cold behind the front, it will not last long, rising in the Northern Plains Wednesday afternoon and elsewhere Thursday and Friday.

Funding Announced for Renewable Tech in Ag

The Department of Agriculture and the Energy Department Monday launched a new initiative to help farmers cut costs and increase income using underutilized renewable technologies. Through the Rural and Agricultural Income & Savings from Renewable Energy initiative, USDA is setting an initial goal of helping 400 individual farmers deploy smaller-scale wind projects using USDA’s Rural Energy for America Program. This goal is only possible because of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act which provided more than $144 million in grant funding for underutilized technologies through the REAP program. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says, “These investments will create long-lasting economic benefits for their families, businesses and communities for years to come.” Additionally, the Energy Department announced $4 million in related funding, including $2.5 million to support distributed wind technologies for the agricultural sector, and $1.5 million to support outreach and the identification and development of new business models for farmers to save money and earn income deploying these technologies.

Northey Honored by Agribusiness Association of Iowa

The Agribusiness Association of Iowa Foundation Monday announced that its building will be named after Bill Northey and simply called “The Northey Building.” Foundation Board Chair Mark White says, “Just as another giant in Iowa agriculture, Henry Wallace, has a state ag building named after him, the Foundation board of directors felt that naming our building after Bill will ensure that he will never be forgotten.” Northey served as CEO of the Agribusiness Association of Iowa at the time of his death earlier this month. Northey previously served as the nation's first Undersecretary for Farm Production and Conservation at USDA, and as Secretary of Agriculture for Iowa. Further, A "Northey Memorial Fund" has been established at the Agribusiness Association of Iowa Foundation. The Agribusiness Association of Iowa Foundation is a nonprofit organization that promotes research projects, member education, stewardship and scholarships that benefit Agribusiness Association of Iowa members and their families.

Nature Connects Us Campaign Launches

The National Forest Foundation and USDA’s Forest Service Monday announced the launch of “Nature Connects Us.” The outreach campaign sparks awakening and strengthening of all peoples’ connection to national forests and grasslands. The campaign is grounded in honoring ancestral tribal homelands through respectful and mindful visitor experiences and was born out of the need to grow and understand the respect that public lands require on a deeper level. NFF CEO Mary Mitsos says, “We aim to welcome all peoples to enjoy the outdoors in a manner that amplifies who they are as an individual and members of a larger community.” The outreach campaign is the largest and most comprehensive outreach campaign that the Forest Service has collaborated on with the NFF throughout their partnership over the past several decades. The National Forest Foundation is the congressionally-chartered nonprofit working to improve and restore the health of the 193-million-acre National Forest System.

United States Cattle on Feed Up Slightly

USDA ended last week with the monthly Cattle on Feed Report showing slightly higher inventories on February 1. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million. The inventory was slightly above 2023, with placements in feedlots at 1.79 million head, seven percent below 2023, and net placements at 1.71 million head. Marketings of fed cattle during January totaled 1.84 million head, slightly below 2023.    Cattle on Feed and Annual Size Group Estimates Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head represented 82.7 percent of all cattle and calves on feed in the United States on January 1, 2024. This is comparable to the 82.6 percent on January 1, 2023. Marketings of fed cattle for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head during 2023 represented 87.3 percent, up slightly from 87.2 percent during 2022.

Nearly 20% of Shoppers Purchase Groceries Online

Data from USDA’s Economic Research Service shows that nearly 20 percent of shoppers purchased groceries online in 2022, the latest dataset available. However, the frequency of online shopping varied. At the time of the survey, among those who bought groceries online in the past month in 2022, 30.2 percent did so once, 25.1 percent made two online grocery purchases, and 44.7 percent purchased groceries online three or more times. Time constraints were the main reason people bought groceries online, while the main reason for not shopping online for groceries was that people like being able to see and touch products in person, according to the survey. ERS collected the data through the ERS-developed Eating and Health Module of the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics’ American Time Use Survey. In 2022, the Eating and Health Module captured for the first time nationally representative data concerning the prevalence and frequency of U.S. residents who report shopping for groceries online.

Fuel Price Increase Pauses

The national average gas price declined last week for the first time in more than a month. The average gas price stands at $3.24 per gallon, down 1.9 cents from a week ago. The national average is up 13.3 cents from a month ago but 9.2 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. Meanwhile, the national average diesel price fell 2.6 cents last week and stands at $4.06 per gallon—33 cents lower than one year ago. However, GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan cautions, "While the pause has certainly been nice, this is more like a rain delay than it is a 7th-inning stretch." De Haan says all eyes are on refiners as utilization remained seasonally weak, around 80 percent of capacity, meaning there’s less gasoline and diesel being produced. U.S. retail gasoline demand increased 2.2 percent for the week, as oil prices hovered around $80 per barrel.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

A report on U.S. durable goods orders for January will be out at 7:30 a.m. CST, followed by a report on consumer confidence at 9 a.m. Traders continue to keep close watch over South American weather forecasts and have an interest in news from the Middle East and Red Sea.

Weather

A strong cold front is found in the Northern Plains early Tuesday with a band of heavy snow across North Dakota into northern Minnesota. That front will race through much of the Plains and Midwest through Tuesday with strong winds, potential severe storms in the eastern Midwest, areas of light snow, and a sharp drop in temperatures from the records seen on Monday.

More Reaction to EPA’s E15 Decision

The Environmental Protection Agency granted the request from eight Midwestern states to sell year-round E15 beginning in 2025. Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor says it’s great news but notes, “Drivers will need a solution for this summer to minimize disruptions and make sure they have continued access to E15.” The National Corn Growers Association is also glad to hear about the decision because it provides more certainty. “However, since it doesn’t begin until the summer of 2025, we are concerned about the implications for growers and consumers this summer,” says NCGA President Harold Wolle. The American Coalition for Ethanol says the decision is “better late than never” but also says the EPA had a legal responsibility to approve E15 in those states more than a year ago. Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley says the EPA was correct in unleashing year-round E15 but added a “few unnecessary strings” in delaying it until 2025.  

Senators Want a Strong Packers and Stockyards Act

Montana Democratic Senator Jon Tester and Iowa Republican Chuck Grassley wrote a letter asking colleagues to help assure the strong enforcement of the Packers and Stockyards Act. They’re asking other senators to oppose any policy rider in the 2024 Ag Appropriations Bill that would prevent the USDA from enforcing the Act to hold multi-national food manufacturers accountable. “Four companies control over 80 percent of domestic beef processing, 60 percent of hog processing, and 50 percent of domestic poultry processing,” their letter says. “This level of concentration is bad for consumers and family farmers but good for the giant meat packers.” They point out that the companies have reported record profits in the last few years while farmers and ranchers struggle to make ends meet and consumers are paying too much for proteins at the grocery store. “Congress must reject any rider blocking USDA from implementing bipartisan reforms,” the letter says.

Brazil, Argentina Crop Production Estimates Drop

Soybean production estimates for Argentina and Brazil, along with corn production estimates for Argentina, were lowered by agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult and the Rosario Grain Exchange. Brazil’s 2023-2024 soybean crop estimate was cut to 152.2 million metric tons from 153.8 million. Agroconsult says adverse weather in key production states is a big reason for the drop. Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange cut its estimates for the country’s 2023-2024 soybean and corn harvests to 49.5 million and 57 million metric tons. The cut comes after a heat wave in late January and early February. The exchange has previously calculated the soybean harvest at 52 million tons and the corn harvest at 59 million tons. Agroconsult says about 40 percent of the crops were affected by high temperatures and low rainfall in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s biggest farm state. Despite higher-than-usual temperatures that started in mid-January, Argentina’s corn harvest will hit a record level this season.

Report Gives a Snapshot of 2023’s U.S. Lamb Market

Last year saw the smallest lamb crop on record with just 3.03 million head, but there were also some bright spots related to lamb imports and pricing. That’s according to the 2023 Sheep Industry Review, a checkoff-funded report commissioned by the American Lamb Board and compiled by the American Sheep Industry Association. “Last year saw a decline in inventory at all levels,” says ALB chair Jeff Ebert. “However, producers did feel a bit of relief with a significant decrease in imported lamb and mutton, improved drought conditions in most areas, a slight decline in production costs, and relatively high slaughter and retail prices.” Breeding sheep declined by two percent to 3.67 million head, market lambs were down 24,000 head to 1.28 million head, and the total lamb crop was down to 3.03 million head, the smallest on record. Feedlot supplies were also down last year because of smaller lamb crops.  

Farmers Ask for Stability in Milk Prices

The American Farm Bureau and National Farmers Union sent a letter to USDA asking for stability in Class 1 milk prices. The letter asks Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack to issue an interim final decision to return the Class 1 mover formula to the “higher-of” the Class 3 or Class 4 calculations as it was before the 2018 farm bill. The letter states,” Dairy farmers remain stuck with the current pricing regulations until USDA publishes a final rule. Current market dynamics underscore the need for an expedited return to the ‘higher-of’ Class 1 mover.” The current Class 1 mover was a well-intentioned but misguided policy that has reduced dairy farmer income. Emergency implementation of the higher-of Class 1 mover formula will staunch persistent losses associated with a policy that has left dairy farmers struggling to make ends meet. The current formula was based on a quick decision and not demonstrated need.

USDA Equity Commission Issues Final Report

The USDA held its inaugural National Equity Summit to celebrate the work of USDA’s Equity Commission and released the report “A New Path Forward.” The report provides an overview of the implementation of the recommendations contained in the Equity Commission’s Interim Report. “USDA has worked to take significant and meaningful actions to address issues still being felt as a result of a system that hasn’t been equitable for generations and ensures that the promise of America can be achieved for every community across the country,” says Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack. Deputy Secretary Xochitl (so-CHEEL) Torres Small says it’s never easy to look at mistakes head-on and recognize where the agency has missed the mark. Since its launch in February 2022, the Equity Commission served as a key pillar of the Department’s efforts to advance equity. The Commission’s report includes 66 recommendations to support institutional change at USDA within multiple areas.  

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will continue to pay close attention to South American weather forecasts and any news from around the world, especially the Middle East. New home sales for January will be out at 9 a.m. CST, followed by USDA's weekly export inspections at 10 a.m. CST.

Weather

Temperatures are rising well above normal and could break some records in spots here on Monday east of the Rockies. But a storm in the Canadian Prairies will push a cold front through the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains that will sweep across the country the next couple of days. That will produce some areas of showers, including snow in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, strong winds, potential for severe weather, and a sharp drop in temperatures.

EPA Makes Decision on Summertime E15

The Environmental Protection Agency approved the long-delayed petitions from eight Midwest governors to allow summertime sales of E15 in these states. Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association, says it’s a double-edged sword. “The EPA finally allows retailers in these eight states to sell E15 year-round,” he says. “But it also delays the rule’s implementation until 2025.” That delay creates considerable uncertainty and confusion about the availability of lower-cost, lower-carbon E15 this coming summer. “It’s helpful to have certainty about 2025, but what happens this summer?” Cooper asked. ”The administration missed its statutory deadline to finalize the governors’ petition by more than 500 days, and now it claims there isn’t enough time to implement the rule in time for summer 2024.” He doesn’t understand why ethanol producers, fuel retailers, consumers, and farmers should be penalized for EPA’s foot-dragging. “We want uninterrupted access this year,” he adds.

Food Continues to Get More Expensive

Eating continues to cost Americans more money. That’s even as overall inflation has backed off from the high pace of 2022 and 2023. Restaurant prices were up 5.1 percent last month compared to January 2023. U.S. Labor Department data shows that grocery store costs increased 1.2 percent during the same period. Relief isn’t on the immediate horizon as restaurant and food company executives continue wrestling with higher labor costs and more expensive ingredients like cocoa. “If you look historically at the periods following inflation, there’s nothing that says food prices will go back down,” says Steve Cahillane of snack giant Kellanova. “They tend to be sticky.” In 1991, government data shows consumers had spent over 11 percent of their disposable personal income on food. At the time, households were still dealing with steep food price increases following an inflationary period during the 1970s. Thirty years later, food spending is there again.

Brazil Soybean Exports Double U.S. Shipments

Brazil’s 2023 soybean exports reached a record 3.74 billion bushels, 29 percent higher than the previous year as Brazilian production hit record levels. Meanwhile, U.S. shipments dropped 14 percent to 1.78 billion bushels in the same period. The two countries are major competitors and together ship over 80 percent of global soybean exports. Historically, the U.S. was the world’s largest soybean exporter. Brazil surpassed the U.S. in soybean shipments for the first time in 2013. The University of Illinois FarmDoc website says over the last 20 years, Brazil’s soybean exports jumped 431 percent, with the jump occurring mainly in the most recent decade. Brazil exports up to 60 percent of its domestic soybean production. During the past two decades, America’s soybean exports have increased 94 percent. U.S. soybean exports have plateaued since 2016, with an average annual volume of 1.993 billion bushels. The U.S. exports 49 percent of its soybeans.

National FFA Officers Head Overseas

The 2023-2024 National FFA Officer Team recently took a trip overseas to Japan, where they participated in an international program in conjunction with the Future Farmers of Japan. The trip was made to strengthen a partnership that began in 1950. This is the first time the national officer team has made the trip since COVID began in 2020. The officers spent six days in Japan and took part in several activities, including a briefing with Senior Agriculture Attaché Mark Wallace at the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo. They also met with FFJ students at high schools in Tokyo and Osaka (oh-SAH-ka). “It was so impactful to see how different, yet how similar, the world operates,” says National FFA Eastern Vice President Morgan Anderson of Ohio. “Culturally, the world is diverse, but one common factor that unites all of us is agriculture.” She added that we’re all working to feed the world.

Waste in EPA Environmental Justice Grant Spending

Iowa Republican Senator Chuck Grassley says millions of taxpayer dollars funneled through the Environmental Protection Agency’s grant programs weren’t used correctly. While the funds were used to cover recipient organizations’ overhead costs and operating expenses, they didn’t produce tangible results demonstrating the efficacy of the environmental justice program. Records and receipt tracking expenditures released this week show a vast portion of the $4.3 million allocated to the environmental justice program was spent by grant recipients on internal and superfluous purposes, including funding employees’ salaries, covering benefits, and even paying for vacation expenses. “Climate change poses real challenges, but the EPA’s efforts to address climate issues through its 2021 environmental justice program don’t pass the smell test,” says Grassley. “Having seen all this laid bare, it’s difficult to imagine how any taxpayer would want their hard-earned money invested in this program instead of putting those funds back in their own pockets.”

Grocery Groups Oppose Purchase Restrictions in SNAP

The National Grocers Association and independent grocers across the U.S. sent a letter to Congress expressing opposition to an effort to limit purchases under the SNAP Program. The NGA says the Fiscal Year 2024 House Ag Appropriations Bill contains two provisions it believes would undermine SNAP. One is the creation of a pilot program to catalog and restrict SNAP purchases, and the collection of SNAP purchasing data with the aim of restricting SNAP purchases in the future. Almost 2,500 NGA members from across the country and in every Congressional district signed the letter. “The dietary needs of the SNAP population are diverse, and no one diet would be appropriate for all participants,” the letter says. The grocers also say the proposed provisions and NGA’s response come at a time of greater food insecurity for Americans. A recent study says 36 percent of U.S. families have recently skipped meals due to financial reasons.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Traders continue to watch South American weather reports for any hints of support in corn and soybean prices. USDA's weekly export sales will be out at 7:30 a.m. CST. Cattle on-feed and monthly cold storage will both be out at 2 p.m.

Weather

Showers from a warm system continue in the Southeast on Friday. A cold front will drop through the Great Lakes in association with a weak clipper as well. Some limited showers will develop over the eastern Midwest later Friday into Saturday. That may include some snow, but amounts are expected to be very light. Temperatures will briefly fall behind this front, but only for a day as they rise again Saturday and continue to be very warm going into next week across most of the country.

USDA: Rural Employment Returns to Pre-COVID Levels

USDA’s Economic Research Service is highlighting new data that shows rural employment levels are back to pre-COVID levels. The COVID-19 pandemic affected employment in rural and urban areas differently. Before the pandemic, employment growth was higher, and unemployment rates were slightly lower in urban areas. However, the trends reversed during the pandemic. In the second quarter of 2020, urban employment fell to 88 percent of pre-pandemic employment levels, while rural employment fell to 90 percent of pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment during the pandemic reached a high of 13.3 percent in urban areas and 11.4 percent in rural areas, compared with pre-pandemic rates of 3.8 and 4.2 percent, respectively. Rural and urban employment grew quickly in the third and fourth quarters of 2020 as many sectors of the economy reopened. Rural employment recovered to pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter of 2023, more than one year after urban employment did. Rural unemployment rates in 2023 were at their lowest point since before 1990.

Vilsack Announces Rural Infrastructure Funding

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack Wednesday announced a more than $772 million investment for rural infrastructure projects. USDA says the new projects will benefit more than one million people living in remote areas of the country by providing reliable high-speed internet access, clean, safe water and a range of support for rural communities. Vilsack commented, "The investments will help us build our economy from the middle out and bottom-up by bringing high-speed internet, clean water, modern infrastructure, and good-paying jobs to communities in rural areas." USDA is investing $51.7 million to expand access to high-speed internet for rural areas through the Reconnect Program and the Broadband Technical Assistance Program, and $42 million in grants through the ReConnect Program. The investments also fund infrastructure projects in underserved communities participating in the Rural Partners Network. And USDA is financing projects through the Water and Waste Disposal Loan and Grant Program to help build and improve rural wastewater systems.

USDA Proposes Changes to Monitoring Child Nutrition Programs

USDA's Food and Nutrition Service recently published a proposed rule that the agency says will help ensure the federal child nutrition programs are properly operated. The regulatory updates seek to strengthen and clarify the process for correcting major mismanagement problems, also called serious deficiencies, found in child nutrition programs. The proposed changes will ensure that procedures in Child and Adult Care Food Program and Summer Food Service Program, also known as CACFP and SFSP, align with current requirements under law. The changes include providing operators a fair path to fully correct serious mismanagement problems, clarifying termination and disqualification criteria for SFSP operators, and addressing legal requirements for obtaining records of individuals who are disqualified from the program and sponsoring organizations that operate in multiple states. USDA is also proposing a standard definition of what it means for an operator to be in “good standing,” which currently does not exist. The public is invited to comment on the proposed changes by May 21 at regulations.gov.

Growth Energy: California Proposal Leave Biofuels Behind

Growth Energy this week submitted comments to the California Air Resources Board regarding the board's proposed changes to California's low-carbon fuel standard. Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor says, “While California has its sights set on the future, the state continues to overlook a significant challenge that it faces right now: decarbonizing the millions of internal combustion engine vehicles in the state that will continue to be on the road for decades. Growth Energy contends the proposal ignores plant-based fuel options, such as ethanol and biodiesel. One issue is the audit processes included in the proposal. Renewable Fuels Association Chief Economist Scott Richman says, “Imposing a third-party verification system for feedstock certification places an extreme audit burden on feedstock suppliers and biofuel producers without any clearly defined benefit.” Richman added that the provision does not define the general term "sustainability" and needs extensive stakeholder engagement and analysis before being considered for inclusion in any amendment to the LCFS program.

Senators: Livestock Consolidation a “Bad Deal” For Consumers, Ranchers

Senators Chuck Grassley and Jon Tester encourage their Senate colleagues to oppose recent efforts that they say will weaken the Packers and Stockyards Act. The upcoming Fiscal year 2024 Agriculture Appropriations bill includes provisions Grassley and Tester say would "prevent USDA from enforcing the Packers and Stockyards Act to hold multi-national food manufacturers accountable." Grassley, an Iowa Republican, and Tester, a Montanna Democrat, contend, "Congress must reject the latest push by these special interests to attach a rider to the FY 2024 Agriculture Appropriations bill to once again block USDA from implementing the 2008 bipartisan Farm Bill reforms." Enforcement already falls short in leveling the playing field for small-scale producers, and the Senators highlighted that recent efforts by the nation's largest meatpackers to prevent further enforcement would be detrimental to America's family farmers and ranchers. Currently, four companies control over 80 percent of domestic beef processing, 60 percent of domestic hog processing, and 50 percent of domestic poultry processing.

Ground Broke on New ARS Research Facility in Georgia

USDA’s Agricultural Research Service and the University of Georgia broke ground Wednesday on a new research facility on the UGA Tifton campus. The facility will house the Southeast Watershed Research Laboratory and the Crop Genetics and Breeding Research Unit. USDA says research at the facility will advance climate-smart agricultural research ranging from water resources to insect and pollinator management, and developing resilient and sustainable crop systems for the Southeastern United States. USDA Chief Scientist Dr. Chavonda Jacobs-Young says, "We are grateful for our longstanding partnership with scientists and students at the University of Georgia-Tifton, and we look forward to seeing this state-of-the-art facility foster additional innovation." USDA says the partnership between ARS and UGA highlights the importance of bringing cutting-edge research to the heart of South Georgia agriculture and helps prepare the next generation of agricultural leaders to take the world's stage through student experience and education.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

South American weather will be of concern as well as the EIA's weekly petroleum status report, which will give ethanol production and stocks and is out at 10 a.m. CST. At 7:30 a.m. CST we will get Initial Jobless Claims and at 9 a.m., existing home sales.

Weather

A weak system moving through the Eastern Corn Belt already has some showers and thunderstorms with it, but it'll be developing more widespread showers by the afternoon across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys before making its way to the East Coast for Friday. Temperatures behind this system continue to be warm and it will be all rain.

Assessment Shows U.S. Soy’s Carbon Footprint Has Considerably Decreased

A newly released Life Cycle Assessment found the U.S. soybean industry’s global warming potential profile decreased considerably in 2021 for whole soybeans, soybean meal, and soy oil compared to previously reported findings in 2015 and 2010. Commissioned by the United Soybean Board and the National Oilseed Processors Association, the study assessed the main drivers of the environmental impact, including soybean cultivation and harvesting, transportation, and energy usage in processing. USB CEO Lucas Lentsch says, “This body of research helps farmers better assess and understand soy’s contribution to the environmental impacts throughout the life cycle of the entire soybean value chain.” The study found that the soybean industry’s carbon footprint decreased considerably in 2021 for all U.S. Soy commodities compared to 2015, including a 19 percent decrease for U.S. soybeans, a six percent decrease for U.S. soybean meal, a 22 percent decrease for U.S. crude soy oil and an eight percent decrease for U.S. refined soy oil.

Zinke Introduces Legislation to Protect Public Lands

Congressman Ryan Zinke this week introduced the Public Lands in Public Hands Act. The Montanna Republican Representative announced the legislation during a roundtable in Bozeman, Montanna. The legislation would ban the sale or transfer of most public lands managed by the Department of the Interior and U.S. Forest Service except under specific conditions and where required under previous laws. The bill also requires Congressional approval for disposals of publicly accessible federal land tracts over 300 acres and public land tracts over five acres if accessible via a public waterway. This provision alone would protect public access to nearly 30 million acres of public lands depended upon by outdoorsmen of all types across Montana. Zinke says, “Public lands must remain public, and the federal government has a responsibility to manage and ensure access to those lands.” Zinke partnered with Democrat Congressman Gabe Vasquez from New Mexico on the legislation.

USDA Sets Dates for Peanut Checkoff Continuance Referendum

The Department of Agriculture will conduct a referendum April 8-19, 2024, for eligible U.S. producers of peanuts to decide whether to continue their checkoff program. USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service will conduct the referendum by regular mail, express mail and electronic ballot. AMS staff will mail ballots and voting instructions to all known eligible U.S. peanut producers before the voting period. Folks engaged in the production and sale of peanuts at the time of the referendum and during the representative period of January 1 through December 31, 2022, are eligible to vote. The order will continue if a majority of producers voting in the referendum favor it. Completed ballots delivered to AMS via regular mail must be postmarked by April 19, 2024, to be counted. Ballots delivered to AMS via express mail or electronic ballot must show proof of delivery no later than 11:59 p.m. ET April 19, 2024 to be counted.

USDA Announces Renewable Energy Application Assistance

The Department of Agriculture Tuesday announced a grant program for organizations to provide hands-on assistance to producers applying for the Rural Energy for America Program, or REAP funding. USDA is making $16 million available through the REAP Technical Assistance Grants Program to provide additional support to farmers, ranchers and rural small business owners seeking REAP funds. Eligible recipients for these grants include state, Tribal or local governments; colleges and universities; electric cooperatives and utility companies; and for-profit and nonprofit organizations. USDA expects the effort to help rural agricultural producers and small business owners apply for REAP funding, provide information on how business owners and agricultural producers can improve the energy efficiency of their operations and use renewable energy technologies and resources, among other benefits. Since December 2022, USDA has made up to $1.3 billion available in REAP funding through the Inflation Reduction Act. Applications must be submitted by March 15, as detailed in the Federal Register.

CropLife America Appoints Next President and CEO

CropLife America Tuesday announced Alexandra (Alex) Dunn as its new president and chief executive officer. Dunn joins CropLife America after serving as a Partner in the Environmental, Safety, and Incident Response group at the international law firm of Baker Botts, L.L.P. While at Baker Botts, Dunn worked on pesticide issues, chemical regulation, water quality, enforcement, litigation, environmental justice, and community engagement. In 2019, with bi-partisan support, she was confirmed with unanimous consent by the U.S. Senate, to serve as Assistant Administrator for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention from 2019 – 2021. CLA Chairman Andy Lee says, “Alex’s experience will provide guidance and leadership in both the policy and regulatory spaces.” Dunn responded, “I cannot think of a better moment than the present to work towards agricultural solutions that benefit the public and the planet.” CropLife America Partnered with executive search firm Kincannon & Reed for the search.

Fuel Prices Trending Higher

For the fourth straight week, the nation's average price of gasoline has gone up, rising 8.7 cents from a week ago to $3.26 per gallon. The national average is up 16.7 cents from a month ago but 11.6 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average diesel price increased 10 cents last week and stands at $4.09 per gallon—38 cents lower than one year ago. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan says, "One of the most critical elements to how much gas prices will climb is how quickly and effectively refiners can finish their pre-summer maintenance, start producing EPA-mandated summer gasoline, and build up supply of it before Memorial Day." The price of oil has seen some sideways movement, but overall strength continues, with oil now closing in on $80, its highest level since November. Meanwhile, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw an increase of 0.7 percent for the week ending February 18.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Traders continue to watch the weather forecasts, especially for South America, while Brazil's soybeans are being harvested and corn is being planted. News also remains a concern from Ukraine, Israel and the Red Sea. At 1 p.m. CST, the Federal Reserve will release minutes from the January Open Market Committee meeting.

Weather

A storm system that has been bringing widespread showers to the West the past couple of days will move into the Southern Plains Wednesday night then head east through the Ohio Valley for Thursday. As the system leaves, scattered showers will develop from the Central Plains into the southern Midwest, being light, but becoming heavier in the Ohio Valley for Thursday. It continues to be warm both ahead of and behind this system, making it all rain.

New Era of Growth for Clean Fuels

Clean Fuels Alliance America welcomed almost 850 attendees from over 20 countries to its Clean Fuels Conference in Fort Worth, Texas. It was a chance to connect with key players in the biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel industries. “The conference offered a setting to unite on the mission and vision that are so critical to our success,” says Clean Fuels CEO Donnell Rehagen. “As our industry continues to evolve, it’ll be even more important to remain together and focused on the issues that move us forward.” Companies including BNSF Railway, Union Pacific, American Airlines, and PepsiCo took the stage to discuss sustainability goals and how clean fuels are moving the needle to reach them. OEM operators took attendees behind the scenes to explain how they are embracing the challenge of decarbonization and securing approvals to ensure liquid fuels continue to play a pivotal role in powering heavy-duty machinery.

Rural Mental Health Group Wins Prestigious Award

Rural mental health national nonprofit Rural Minds was selected as the 2023 STARR Coalition Advocacy Organization of the Year and won the prestigious STARR Award. “This recognition is given to the advocacy organization that’s demonstrated exceptional dedication to advocating for those living with mental illness, their efforts to fight the mental illness stigma, and who support efforts to expand mental health research,” says Erica Moore of the STARR Coalition. Rural Minds Executive Director Chuck Strand says, “We thank the coalition for the award and recognition of the collaborative work we are doing through Rural Minds to help people in rural communities overcome unique barriers to mental health.” Rural Minds Founder and Chairman Jeff Winton adds that they look forward to the ongoing collaboration with other nonprofits, corporations, and individuals across the country as they confront the growing health issue facing rural America. For more information on the group, go to ruralminds.org.

Pork Exports Projected to Surpass Broiler Chicken Exports

USDA’s long-term projection data shows the volume of U.S. red meat exports in all major categories is projected to grow through 2033. Rising incomes abroad and a moderately declining real exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of major agricultural trading partners lend support to U.S. red meat and poultry exports. By 2028, pork exports are set to exceed exports of broiler chickens for the first time since 1976. Steady growth in U.S. pork production, driven by a combination of increasing slaughter weights, rising pigs per litter, and higher inventories, is projected to support rapid growth in exports. New environmental policies in the European Union are expected to impact pork production and reduce the growth of EU exports, which will enhance U.S. competitiveness. U.S. pork exports are expected to increase by 34 percent from an expected 6.95 billion pounds in 2024 to a projected 9.34 billion pounds by 2033.

Prop 12 Will Cause Market Chaos

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack didn’t hold back when asked about the potential economic harm of California’s Prop 12. “If Congress doesn’t act, we’re going to have chaos in the marketplace,” Vilsack said in response to a question from House Ag Committee Chair Glenn Thompson. California’s Prop 12 went into effect on January 1 and placed housing restrictions on farms that ship pork to the state. By setting production standards in other states, California is regulating interstate commerce, which Prop 12 opponents say is an authority reserved for the federal government. “The reality is that when each state has the ability to define for itself and its consumers exactly what farming techniques are appropriate, it creates the possibility of 50 different sets of regulations,” Vilsack says. “That means no certainty for producers.” He also says if the issue isn’t taken seriously, it’ll mean chaos because other states can take the same steps.

Land Use Study Shows Interesting Results

A new study from the researchers at the University of Illinois at Chicago’s Energy Resource Center evaluates the environmental and economic impacts of land use change. The land use change impact is specifically for land that moves in and out of cropland over ten-year time periods. The study aimed to determine land use and soil organic carbon stocks on 1,000 land parcels over a 36-year period. “As part of this study, we conducted a historical analysis going back to 1985 and found that longer time intervals need to be considered when determining the environmental and economic impact of land use changes,” says lead researcher Ken Copenhaver. “Notably, this is not something that current regulations are taking into consideration.” Using advanced satellite imagery and aerial photography, the researchers discovered their findings challenge previous studies that primarily focus on shorter time intervals, often less than ten years when examining land use changes.”

Western Land Survey Shows Unity on Concerns

A new poll that surveyed at least 400 registered voters in each of the eight western states shows residents putting a top priority on clean air, clean water, conservation, and combating wildfires. The 14th annual Colorado College’s “Conservation in the West” poll found a lot of agreement, in a nation that’s become highly polarized, over the issue of protecting wild places, preserving wildlife migration corridors, and doing more to ensure the availability of a clean water supply. “There may be a lot that divides voters across the country, but in the West, there’s almost universal consensus in favor of conservation,” says Katrina Miller-Stevens, an associate professor at Colorado College. “Not only do voters prefer conservation when asked how water and public lands should be used, but issues involving water, air, land, and wildlife are top of mind when making their voting decisions.” Sixty-six percent of respondents think climate change impacts are significant

Top 5 Things to Watch - Short Market Week, Clipper Weather Systems

1. Presidents Day holiday: Markets are closed on Monday in observance of federal Presidents Day holiday in the United States, although mandatory livestock reports are still released that day. Canadian markets are also closed for Family Day in some provinces or named a different holiday in others. We'll have limited updates, with market coverage and full news coverage resuming Tuesday.

2. Census of Ag details: We'll continue to dig into the trends and surprises from the 2022 Census of Agriculture. 

3. More machinery coverage: We'll have additional pieces from our attendance at several of the winter farm equipment shows. 

4. Weather changes: Throughout next week, multiple clipper systems will cross the Central U.S., providing areas of rain and isolated snow showers. The Northern and Central Plains may see warmer weather return through the week. In the Midwest, those systems will also bring higher temperatures, which will keep precipitation in the form of rain instead of snow. In South America, a system off the Brazil coast will continue to produce showers in southern and eastern Brazil through early this week. The front that is moving through Argentina this week may produce scattered showers later in the week.

5. Economic reports to Watch: Monday is the Presidents Day holiday, commodity and stock markets are closed and no government reports are out, although mandatory livestock reports are still released that day. Canadian markets are closed for Family Day/another holiday on Monday. China futures markets will reopen. U.S. futures markets open Tuesday morning. Tuesday starts with the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators report at 9 a.m., followed by U.S. Grain Inspections at 10 a.m. The NASS Chicken and Eggs Annual report is out at 2 p.m. Then Thursday starts with Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m.; at 8:45 a.m. is S & P services and manufacturing PMIs; 9 a.m. is the release of existing home sales, and at 10 a.m. the EIA will release the weekly petroleum status report, including weekly ethanol production and stocks. At 2 p.m. we'll see the livestock and poultry slaughter reports and broiler hatchery and milk production reports. Friday starts with grain export sales at 7:30 a.m. and at 2 p.m. is the Cattle on Feed report. Watch for our Cattle on Feed Preview story prior to the report's release.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Traders will again focus on South American weather over the weekend and the coming weeks. At 9 a.m. CST the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators report will be released. At 10 a.m. CST we will get the Grain Inspections report release.

Weather

Areas east of the Rockies are seeing another quiet day, but a storm system is coming ashore in the West that will cause a system later this week farther east. Temperatures continue to rise and well-above normal readings are returning again.

Farmers Can Use Existing Dicamba Stocks

An Arizona District Court vacated the 2020 registration of over-the-top dicamba products, so the Environmental Protection Agency issued an Existing Stocks Order. The order allows limited sale and distribution of dicamba products that were already in possession of growers or in trade channels outside of the control of pesticide companies by February 6. The order also prohibits the use of these dicamba products except where the use is consistent with the previously approved labeling, which included measures intended to reduce environmental damage caused by offsite movement of the pesticide. The EPA issued the order after receiving enough evidence that millions of gallons of OTT dicamba had already entered the trade channels before February 6. Plus, growers aren’t able to switch to other options due to the timing of the Arizona court’s decision. The order applies only to dicamba formulations designed to use over the top of dicamba-tolerant soybeans and cotton.

Ag Groups Appreciate EPA Existing Stocks Order

U.S. agriculture groups expressed appreciation for the Environmental Protection Agency’s Existing Stocks Order on over-the-top dicamba use in 2024. “We’re grateful to EPA for hearing farmers’ and ranchers’ concerns and addressing them quickly to make sure they have the crop protection tools they need,” says Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall. “Without EPA stepping in, farmers and ranchers were facing significant uncertainty and financial risk.” American Soybean Association President Josh Gackle says tens of millions of farmland acres were in limbo. “This ruling potentially affects more than 50 million acres of dicamba-tolerant soybeans and cotton, an area larger than Nebraska.” Ted McKinney, CEO of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture, was also pleased with the decision. “As co-regulatory partners with EPA, we commend the agency for issuing the existing stocks order on dicamba,” he says. “The stocks order will prevent severe detrimental impacts to our food, fuel, and fiber availability.”

January Tractor Sales Up Slightly in the U.S.

Unit sales of four-wheel-drive tractors grew slightly in the U.S. during January. The latest data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers shows four-wheel-drive tractor sales increased 1.4 percent year-over-year and was the only segment to show growth in January. In Canada, four-wheel-drive tractor sales were unchanged at 409 units in January compared to 2023. “The slight gain in U.S. four-wheel-drive tractors is positive news as 2024 begins,” says AEM Senior Vice President Curt Blades. “While overall sales fell in both the U.S. and Canada compared to January 2023 sales, we remain optimistic about future long-term growth.” Overall unit sales of U.S. tractors dropped 21.2 percent compared to January 2023 sales, while combine sales finished 4.9 percent below last January. Under-40 horsepower tractors were down 26 percent from last year. Canadian tractor sales ended January 30 percent below the 2023 data. Combines were also down 9.5 percent in January compared to last year.

Crop Insurance Costs to Jump 29 Percent

The federally-subsidized crop insurance program will cost an additional $27.7 billion over the next decade. A Congressional Budget Office report says the government pays roughly 62 cents of each dollar in premiums, and sales of livestock and forage policies are exploding. A Farmdoc report says crop insurance costs should rise by 29 percent to nearly $125 billion for the decade ending in 2033. Despite the increase, USDA spending on crop and livestock subsidies and land stewardship programs should remain stable. While crop insurance costs likely will increase, the Senate Ag Committee says that projected costs for all farm bill-related programs are now $1.46 trillion between 2025 and 2034. That’s down 3.5 percent from the previous ten-year baseline of $1.5 trillion. Livestock insurance programs have grown dramatically since 2018 when Congress increased the premium subsidy rates for coverage. Policies covered $26.4 billion of liabilities in 2023, compared to $512 million in 2018.

Eighteen Months From a Bird Flu Vaccine

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack says the United States is 18 months away from a vaccine for bird flu. That news comes as more than 81 million U.S. poultry and aquatic birds have been killed by avian flu across 47 states since January 2022, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The U.S. has found bird flu this year in eight commercial flocks and 14 backyard flocks so far, affecting 530,000 poultry. During a Congressional hearing, Vilsack said, “We’re probably 18 months away from being able to identify a vaccine that would be effective for the particular flu we’re dealing with now.” Forth News says the USDA plans to discuss poultry vaccinations with trading partners amid concerns that other countries could restrict imports of vaccinated U.S. poultry. In May, the World Organization for Animal Health said governments should consider flu vaccines in their poultry to prevent the spread of avian influenza.

USGC Winter Meeting Underway in Guatemala

U.S. Grains Council members and staff gathered in Guatemala this week for the Council’s 21st International Marketing Conference and 64th Annual Membership Meeting. The meeting runs through Friday and will involve discussions of the current state of feed grain and biofuel markets around the world and an update for attendees on the Council’s plans for 2024 and beyond. USGC Chair Brent Boydston opened the event with a welcome and an overview of his tenure thus far. “My theme for this year, Growing the Future, reflects both the opportunities and challenges of the current trade environment,” Boydston says. “We gather to discuss issues facing our industry and explore future demand for feed grains, distiller’s dried grains with solubles, and ethanol around the world.” Chief Agricultural Negotiator Doug McKalip addressed attendees and outlined the importance of his office’s work in Guatemala and Central America. More information is available on social media at #Grains24.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Traders will again focus on South American weather. Government reports out at 7:30 CST are Housing Starts, Building Permits, the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core Producer Price Index.

Weather

Another clipper system from the Dakotas has made its way into the Southern Midwest Friday morning and will provide snow showers to the Eastern and Southern Midwest throughout the day. Farther south, temperatures will be milder for rain showers across the Southern Delta and Tennessee Valley.

Analysis: Crop Insurance Prices Lower This Year

An analysis by the University of Illinois projects crop insurance prices will be much lower than in 2023, resulting in lower per-acre premiums in 2024. That's because of lower corn and soybean futures during the first half of this month. Researchers say premiums are likely to be 16 to 18 percent lower for corn and ten to 12 percent lower for soybean policies based on current estimates for in Champaign and Jefferson Counties in Illinois. Since lower insurance prices also result in lower guarantees per acre, researchers say farmers may wish to increase their coverage levels with the premium savings. The projected insurance prices for corn and soybeans are based on average settlement prices on each crops' harvest contract during the month of February. Through February 9, the December corn contract has averaged $4.74 per bushel. The November soybean contract has averaged $11.73 per bushel or $2.03 below the $13.76 projected price in 2023, a decline of nearly 15 percent. Find the full analysis on the farmdocDAILY website.

Industry Responds to Census of Agriculture

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack calls the data in the 2022 Census of Agriculture a "wake-up call" for the industry. In a statement following the release of the Census, Vilsack says, "It's imperative that we continue to deliver agriculture policies that create multiple streams of income and new, more competitive models for small- and mid-sized farms." The Census reports 141,733 fewer farms in 2022 than in 2017. The number of farm acres fell more than 20 million acres from just five years earlier. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall says, “Increased regulations, rising supply costs, lack of available labor and weather disasters have all squeezed farmers to the point that many of them find it impossible to remain economically sustainable.” Vilsack adds, “We are at a pivotal moment, in which we have the opportunity to hold tight to the status quo and shrink our nation's agriculture sector further, or we can choose a more expansive, newer model that creates more opportunity, for more farmers." 

Census of Agriculture Highlights Aging Farmer Population

The 2022 Census of Agriculture shows the number of farmers over the age of 65 is outpacing younger farmers. Almost 1.3 million farmers are now at or beyond retirement age, while just 300,000 farmers are under the age of 35. The average age of all producers was 58.1, up 0.6 years from 2017. However, this is a smaller increase than average age increases between prior censuses. There were just over one million farmers with ten or fewer years of experience, an increase in the number of beginning farmers from 2017 of 11 percent. Beginning farmers are younger than all farmers, with an average age of 47.1. The number of producers under age 35 was 296,480, comprising nine percent of all producers. In 2022, 1.2 million female producers accounted for 36 percent of all producers. And the data shows that 58 percent of all farms had at least one female decision maker.

USDA: Food Prices Increased 5.8% in 2023

In 2023, all food prices increased by 5.8 percent on average compared with 2022. The figure includes both food away from home and food purchased for consumption at home. Food-at-home prices increased by 5.0 percent, while food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.1 percent. Food prices are expected to continue to decelerate in 2024. The all food prices are predicted to increase 1.3 percent, with a prediction interval of -1.4 to 4.2 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to decrease 0.4 percent, with a prediction interval of -4.5 to 4.0 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 4.7 percent, with a prediction interval of 3.1 to 6.2 percent. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index earlier this week indicated an increase in January. The food index rose 0.4 percent in January, and the food at home index also increased 0.4 percent over the month. The food at home index rose 1.2 percent over the last 12 months, while the index for food away from home rose 5.1 percent.

NFU Leads Letter to Congress: Uphold Packers and Stockyards Act Progress

National Farmers Union this week sent a letter to Appropriations Committee leadership opposing restrictions that would undo work to revitalize the Packers and Stockyards Act. The letter, signed by national, regional, and state organizations, points out that "opponents of competitive agricultural markets are seeking to roll back the work USDA has already completed, prevent USDA from making additional progress on these rules, and prevent any similar effort in the future."  Damaging provisions were included in an earlier version of the FY24 Appropriations bill, and this same strategy was used by opponents of the Act during previous administrations. NFU President Rob Larew says, "Blocking USDA's work would be a direct hit to fair markets," adding, "Congress should champion family farmers and consumers, not bow to meatpacking monopolies. We urge them to discard this harmful proposal once and for all." Just this week, USDA's first updated Packers and Stockyards Act rule went into effect, with many more important rules to follow.

USDA Investment to Help Indigenous Communities Access Climate Markets

The Department of Agriculture Wednesday announced a $20 million investment to support indigenous communities in accessing emerging climate markets. The funding, distributed through competitive grants administered by the USDA Forest Service, will help recipients access emerging private markets for forest resilience, climate mitigation, water quality, carbon sequestration and more. Agriculture Deputy Secretary Xochitl Torres Small says, “Tribes and Alaska Native corporations and villages will have broader access to markets that will help address the climate crisis.” Deputy Secretary Torres Small made the announcement during a meeting of the National Congress of American Indians in Washington. The non-profit National Congress is the oldest, largest, and most representative American Indian and Alaska Native organization serving the interests of Tribal governments and communities. The investments fund work on tribal lands and complement USDA's commitment to advance co-stewardship of national forests and grasslands. Proposals for this new grant opportunity may be submitted through August 21, 2024, at grants.gov.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Traders will again focus on South American weather and watch for export sales out at 7:30 a.m. CST. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum is also taking place and we will get a look at their new crop balance sheets. Other government reports out include Initial Jobless claims, U.S. Retail Sales, and Industrial Production.

Weather

A clipper system providing snow to the Great Lakes and rain showers to the Eastern Midwest will exit these regions Thursday. Another clipper from the Northern Rockies will enter the Dakotas and Central Plains later Thursday into the evening, possibly providing a band of six inches of snow across southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska.

USDA Releases 2022 Census of Agriculture

USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service Tuesday announced the 2022 Census of Agriculture results. The information collected directly from producers shows a continued decline in the total number of U.S. farms. However, the data also show a rise in the number of new and beginning farmers and young producers. New and beginning farmers are defined as those operating ten or fewer years on any farm and young producers are those under the age of 35. NASS Administrator Hubert Hamer says, “Overall, though there are always changes across U.S. agriculture, the data remain largely consistent with the previous ag census.” The data shows there were 1.9 million farms and ranches, down seven percent from 2017, with an average size of 463 acres, up five percent. Family-owned and operated farms accounted for 95 percent of all U.S. farms and operated 84 percent of land in farms. Find the complete data set online at nass.usda.gov/AgCensus.

Food Prices Increased in January

Grocery prices increased slightly last month, according to the latest Consumer Price Index released Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent. The food index rose 0.4 percent in January, and the food at home index also increased 0.4 percent over the month. Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the month. The food away from home index rose 0.5 percent in January. The index for full-service meals rose 0.4 percent and the index for limited service meals increased 0.6 percent over the month. The food at home index rose 1.2 percent over the last 12 months, while the index for food away from home rose 5.1 percent over the last year.

Productivity The Major Driver of U.S. Agricultural Growth

Technological developments in agriculture have enabled continued output growth without requiring much additional inputs, according to a new USDA Economic Research Service report. Innovations in animal and crop genetics, chemicals, equipment, and farm organization have made it possible for total agricultural output to nearly triple between 1948 and 2021. During that period, the amount of inputs used in farming declined slightly over time, meaning that the growth in agricultural output over the long term has depended on increases in total factor productivity. Total factor productivity measures the amount of agricultural output produced from the combined inputs in farm production. Growth in total factor productivity indicates positive changes in the efficiency with which inputs are transformed into outputs. In the most recent calculation period spanning 2020–21, agricultural output grew, which was due entirely to total factor productivity growth, even as the amount of inputs used in farming fell.

USDA Releases North America 2023 Potato Production Data

A new report from the Agriculture Departments of the U.S., Mexico, and Canada reveals the 2023 North American Potato harvest data. USDA released the North American Potatoes report this week. The 2023 potato production for the United States and Canada combined is estimated at 570 million per hundredweight, up eight percent from the 2022 estimate. The United States potato production is estimated at 441 million hundredweight, up ten percent from last year. Canada's potato growers harvested 129 million, up four percent from 2022. The 2022 potato production for the United States, Canada, and Mexico combined is 567 million hundredweight, down two percent from the 2021 estimate. The United States 2022 potato production is estimated at 402 million hundredweight, down three percent from 2021. Canada’s potato growers harvested 124 million hundredweight during 2022, up two percent from 2021. Mexico’s potato growers harvested 41.4 million hundredweight during 2022, down four percent from 2021.

USDA Ag Outlook Forum Thursday

USDA will hold its annual Ag Outlook Forum Thursday. The two-day event is USDA's 100th Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, themed “Cultivating the Future.” The vent features more than 30 sessions and 120 speakers, and offers a rich and diverse program covering a range of timely topics such as commodity markets, trade, technology, climate change and more. Thursday will feature USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer’s presentation on the 2024 Agricultural Economic and Foreign Trade Outlook, and a Keynote address by Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack. Day two on Friday features a plenary session titled, “Fostering Diverse Opportunities for U.S. Agricultural Exports in the Global Marketplace.” Friday\’s schedule included virtual remarks by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and remarks from U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai. USDA will hold the event at the Crystal City Gateway Marriott in Arlington, Virginia. For more information about the program and registration, visit the Agricultural Outlook Forum website.

Collaboration Seeks Japanese Encephalitis Virus Research

A new collaboration seeks to fund research for prevention and preparedness capabilities for Japanese encephalitis virus, a transboundary disease risk for U.S. introduction. The Swine Health Information Center and the Foundation for Food & Agriculture Research have partnered to fund a $1 million research program. Japanese encephalitis is an emerging zoonotic disease identified through global monitoring as a priority for North American prevention and preparedness activities. The virus is transmitted through the bite of infected mosquitoes, and biosecurity practices focused on mosquito control are key to reducing risk. In 2022, an outbreak of the disease spread rapidly across new geographic regions of Australia, affecting breeding swine herds. Individual awards are capped at $250,000, but proposals may exceed the cap if sufficient justification is provided. All projects should strive to be unique, have a high impact, show value to pork producers, and have industry-wide benefit. Additional information can be found at www.swinehealth.org.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Traders will again focus on South American weather, and at 10 a.m. CST, the EIA will be out with their Weekly Petroleum report which will detail weekly ethanol production and stocks. There will be no government economic reports following Tuesday's higher than expected Consumer Price Index data.

Weather

A band of moderate to heavy snow will develop across South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin Wednesday and parts of west-central Minnesota and east-central South Dakota could see up to eight inches of snow. Cooler temperatures are expected behind this system.

Growth Rate of World Ag Production Slows

USDA says in the last decade, world agricultural output grew at an average annual rate of 1.94 percent per year, far slower than the 2.74 percent growth rate over the prior decade. That’s also below the average annual rate of 2.3 percent over the past six decades from 1961-2021. The slowdown was primarily tied to a slowing rate of growth in agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), which fell 1.4 percent per year in 2011-2021 compared to 1.93 percent per year during the previous decade. TFP measures the amount of agricultural output produced from the aggregated inputs used in the production process, including land, capital, labor, and material resources. There are four major sources for overall growth, including bringing more land into production, extending irrigation to land, intensifying the use of capital, labor, and material inputs per unit of land, and improving TFP, reflecting the rate of technological and efficiency improvements of inputs.

Questions Continue About Farm Kids and Financial Aid

Iowa Republican Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst are pressing the Department of Education for clarity regarding Question 22 on the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid. They’re especially concerned that the way the agency chooses to ask the question will force students to list the net worth of family farms as assets. Current ambiguities could cut off farm kids from needed financial aid and make it less feasible for them to attend college. “The question fundamentally misunderstands how the family farm operates, as the stream of revenue for crops and livestock varies significantly year-over-year, and assets cannot get cashed out to support a loan in the same capacity as traditional investments,” the senators wrote in a letter to the Education Department. “We reiterate our concern with the nature of this question and the lack of insight on how the adjusted formula will impact students from an agricultural background.”

FACA Sees Workforce Development Opportunities

The Food and Agriculture Climate Alliance welcomes the launch of a USDA workforce development initiative aimed at building the next generation of conservation delivery providers. The Working Lands Climate Corps is a promising opportunity to provide on-the-ground education and training to develop the skillset needed to address natural resource challenges. Climate Corps fellows, working with state and local organizations, will gain the skills needed to provide conservation technical assistance to agricultural producers who are voluntarily making climate-smart investments in their operations. FACA appreciates USDA’s commitment to building the next generation of boots on the ground but acknowledges the immediate need for more capacity today. “We encourage USDA to continue to prioritize ongoing capacity-building and recruitment efforts,” FACA says. “These two efforts are complementary and necessary to build a robust workforce to scale conservation delivery. FACA members are united in support of climate policies that are voluntary, market-based, and scientifically sound.  

FMMO Next Steps Begin

With the Federal Milk Marketing Order hearing now complete, USDA is now considering the more than 12,000 pages of testimony as it formulates a plan for FMMO modernization. The National Milk Producers Federation is still doing what it can to ensure that the proposal best reflects the interest of dairy farmers and their cooperatives. The organization says the key to a successful modernization is a comprehensive approach that addresses the complexity of federal orders in a way that respects the entire dairy industry while keeping in mind that orders most fundamentally must work for farmers. That’s the bedrock principle behind NMPF proposals on areas ranging from returning to the “higher-of” Class I mover to updating milk composition factors. “You can’t look at the federal order system having not been updated in 20 years and not address all facets of the industry,” says Stephen Cain, NMPF Senior Director for Economic Research and Analysis.

Grocery Buying Goes Online

In 2022, the Economic Research Service’s Eating and Health Module captured, for the first time, nationally representative data concerning the prevalence and frequency of Americans doing online grocery shopping. The survey data revealed that nearly nine out of ten individuals aged 15 and older (87.2 percent) reported they usually grocery shopped for their household either online or in person. Of these, about two in 10 (19.3 percent) had bought groceries online at least in the past 30 days. However, the frequency of online shopping varied. Among those who had bought groceries online in the past month, 30 percent did once, 25 percent made two online purchases, and 44 percent bought groceries online three or more times. The landscape of online grocery shopping took a big shift in 2020 because of COVID. The Food and Drug Administration says online grocery sales grew 55 percent from 2019’s $62 billion to $96 billion in 2020.

Fake Meat Investment Falls

The last 12 months have been c challenging for cultivated meat and seafood companies trying to raise capital. For example, AGFunderNews.com says Finless Foods is making cutbacks to conserve cash, New Age Eats running out of funds, and GOOD Meat getting sued by its bioreactor supplier over allegedly unpaid bills. As AgFunder runs the numbers, preliminary data shows that funding for cultivated meat startups peaked at $989 million in 2021, dipped slightly to $807 million in 2022, and then dropped sharply last year, falling 78 percent to $177 million against a backdrop of a 50 percent drop in agrifood tech investing overall in 2023. While the funding rounds were far smaller in 2023 versus 2022, investors placed a sizable bet on Uncommon, a UK-based startup formerly called Higher Steaks. That investment netted $30 million in funding to scale the production of cultivated pork using patent-pending technology by speeding up the cell differentiation process.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

The U.S. Labor Department's consumer price index for January will be out at 7:30 a.m. CST Tuesday. USDA's 2022 Census of Agriculture is also due out sometime Tuesday. Traders continue to monitor the latest weather forecasts in South America and events in the Middle East.

Weather

A system that brought heavy rain and some snow to the Southeast Monday continues on the East Coast for Tuesday. A clipper coming down from Canada will be getting into the Northern Plains with some isolated snow showers as well, but most areas are going to be quiet Tuesday.

U.S. Pork Exports Set Annual Record

Led by a record-shattering performance in Mexico and broad-based growth elsewhere, U.S. pork exports set a value record in 2023. Data shows December pork exports rose 10 percent from the prior year to 268,400 metric tons, the largest since May 2021 and the eighth-largest on record. Export value increased 11 percent to $766 million, also the highest since May 2021 and the third-highest on record. The strong December pushed 2023 export value to a record $8.16 billion, six percent higher than 2022. Export volume reached 2.91 million tons, eight percent higher year-over-year and the third-largest on record. Beef exports closed the year on a higher note, with December totaling 108,497 million tons, down four percent year-over-year but the largest level since August. Export value was also the highest since August, climbing 10 percent over 2022 to $860.8 million. 2023 beef exports hit 1.29 million tons, 12 percent below 2022 levels.

Farmers Need Access to Crop Protection Tools

American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall sent a letter to the Environmental Protection Agency asking the agency to allow farmers to use existing dicamba stocks for the upcoming season. An Arizona court vacated the registration of three dicamba products critically important for farmers in fighting resistant weeds. “Many farmers have already made planting decisions to use dicamba-tolerant crop systems and have planned to use dicamba products in the near future,” Duvall says. “These farmers invested in substantial sums in the dicamba-resistant seeds in reliance on EPA’s prior approval of dicamba on these crops.” He adds that without those products, not only are the substantial investments at risk, but farmers don’t know how they’ll protect their crops. AFB is asking EPA to issue an existing stock order to ensure dicamba remains available to farmers throughout the growing season. “We are committed to the safe use of all crop protection tools,” Duvall adds.

USDA Contributes $270 Million to Bolster Food Supply Chain

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack announced that the USDA has awarded over $270 million to date through cooperative agreements with state departments of agriculture to build resilience across the middle of the food supply chain and strengthen local and regional food systems. The funding is awarded through the Resilient Food Systems Infrastructure Program. At the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture’s Winter Policy Conference, Vilsack announced Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, Utah, and West Virginia have now opened their Request for Applications for the program, joining 28 states that are already offering grant funding for projects that support supply chain infrastructure. “These unprecedented investments into our nation’s supply chain infrastructure will not only benefit consumers by ensuring they have dependable access to fresh and locally produced food, but the investments will also benefit producers and rural communities by providing more and better markets for small and mid-sized producers,” he says.

Part of Massachusetts Pork Law Ruled Unconstitutional

A U.S. District Judge ruled that a portion of the recent Massachusetts law that bans the sale of pork if a pig is held in a confined space is unconstitutional. However, Boston media reports say the judge is allowing that part of the law to be severed, and the rest will stay in effect for now. Judge William Young made the ruling following a lawsuit by pork processors and other pig farmers who believed the pork law was unconstitutional. The law, called “The Prevention of Farm Animal Cruelty Act,” was approved by voters in 2016 and banned the sale of eggs, veal, and pork from animals held in conditions deemed cruel. The portion of the law getting argued was an exemption that allowed the sale of pork from federally inspected slaughterhouses in Massachusetts that don’t meet requirements as long as the buyers take possession of the pork while on their premises.

EPA Outlines Potential ESA Pesticide Policies

The Environmental Protection Agency announced implementation approaches for pesticide policies under the Endangered Species Act. Assistant Administrator Michael Freedhoff talked about the steps during a speech at the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture’s winter policy conference. When registering pesticides under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act, EPA must also comply with the Endangered Species Act to ensure the pesticides don’t harm endangered species or their habitats. EPA announced additional plans to address concerns about the challenge of protecting endangered species from exposure and expand its partnership with the USDA. EPA says it won’t implement the Vulnerable Species Pilot Protections for a species until a more refined map of its habitat gets developed. The agency is also working to develop new maps that better reflect where the species actually live and where protections from pesticides are needed most. “These steps will benefit farmers and endangered species,” Freedhoff says.

McDonald’s Hits 100 Percent Cage-Free Eggs

McDonald’s says it met the goal of sourcing 100 percent cage-free eggs in the U.S. by 2025, two years ahead of its original timeline. The company says it’s continuing to prioritize the health and welfare of the animals in its supply chain. The improvement is in the power of the “McDonald’s System” working together towards a shared goal. As a U.S. system, McDonald’s purchased almost two billion eggs in 2023, close to six times the entire U.S. population. “Our journey to move to sourcing 100 percent cage-free eggs in the U.S. was a huge undertaking that was made uniquely possible by our owner/operators, producers, and our supply chain working together as one team,” says Bob Stewart, SVP and North American Chief Supply Chain Officer for McDonald’s. “I’m incredibly proud of what we achieved together and the positive impact we’ll continue to make on the path toward a more sustainable future.”

Top 5 Things to Watch - Big Shows and Big Reports

1. National machinery shows: Two of the big farm shows kick off this week. DTN will have a series of markets, weather and cropping sessions going on during the National Farm Machinery Show in Louisville, Kentucky. Come hear DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick and DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman -- they'll have daily sessions on our weather and commodity markets outlooks Wednesday (at 2:30 p.m. EST), Thursday (8:30 a.m. EST) and Friday (10 a.m. EST). Our Successful Cover Crop Strategies session, featuring a panel of cover crop and carbon program experts, is Thursday at 10:30 a.m. We'll also have DTN Senior Editor Dan Miller and others reporting from the show floor. DTN Senior Editor Joel Reichberger will be at Tulare, California to report the latest new technologies on display at the World Ag Expo. 

2. Census of Ag: On Feb. 13, USDA will release results of the 2022 Census of Agriculture. We'll have insights into some of the key trends in prices, land ownership and other key indicators that have taken shape since the 2017 Ag Census. We'll have continued reporting on census figures through the coming weeks.

3. USDA Outlook Conference. On Feb. 15-16, USDA will hold its annual outlook conference in Washington, D.C. This year's conference is a few weeks earlier than normal, but will feature USDA's official outlook on all the major commodities for 2024. We'll report from the event.

4. Weather cools: The unseasonably warm conditions of the past 10 or so days will taper somewhat, though most of the country will still see temperatures slightly above to above normal for mid-February. Systems could bring more showers to the Southern and Central Plains late in the week. 

5. Economic reports to watch: Monday starts with grain inspection reports at 10 a.m. At 1 p.m. the Monthly Federal Budget report is revealed. Tuesday at 7:30 a.m. we will have the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Core CPI and Core CPI year-over-year results. On Wednesday (Happy Valentine's Day!) we'll see the EIA Weekly Petroleum Report, including ethanol production and stocks, at 10 a.m. Then Thursday sees a collection of reports hitting at 7:30 a.m., including weekly grain and oilseed export sales, initial jobless claims, U.S. retail sales and national import and export numbers. Industrial Production numbers are out at 8:15 a.m., with Home Builder Confidence Index at 9 a.m. and the weekly Economic Index Report at 10:30 a.m. (Don't forget to water those flowers you bought your Valentine. Wait, you did get flowers, right?) Friday morning will be busy. We'll see U.S. Housing Starts report at 7:30 a.m., as well as Building Permits and the New Residential Construction report, along with the Producer Price Index (PPI), Core PPI, and PPI Year-Over-Year reports. At 9 a.m. the Consumer Sentiment report will be released. Whew!

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will be paying attention to South American weather and the latest events from the Middle East. Markets in China are closed this week for the Lunar New Year. USDA's weekly export inspections will be out at 10 a.m. CST. The U.S. Treasury Department reports on the federal budget for January at 1 p.m.

Weather

A system from the weekend continues to move through the Southeast on Monday, with areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms, some of which may be severe. On the northern end of the storm, it will be just cold enough to get some snow to fall from southern Missouri through portions of the Ohio Valley. Despite the snow, it still remains mild by February standards in most places of the country outside of the Southwest.

February WASDE Shows Higher Corn, Soybean Ending Stocks

The February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates show the 2023-2024 U.S. corn outlook calling for lower food, seed, and industrial use and larger ending stocks. Lower usage will lead to a 10 million bushel increase in ending stocks compared to last month’s report. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 a bushel. This month’s soybean outlook is for lower exports and higher ending stocks. Soybean exports are forecast at 1.72 billion bushels, down 35 million from last month. With crush unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 315 million bushels, up 35 million from last month. The season-average soybean price is forecast a dime lower to $12.65 per bushel. The wheat outlook is for stable supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Projected ending stocks are up 10 million bushels to 658 million. The season-average farm price forecast is unchanged at $7.20 a bushel.

Ag Retailers Association Unhappy with Dicamba Decision

Earlier this week, a federal District Court in Arizona vacated the registration for over-the-top applications of dicamba on dicamba-tolerant soybeans and cotton. While the court decision came from Arizona, the decision is national in scope. The Ag Retailers Association disagrees with the decision, noting the determination should be made by a science-based regulatory agency. The association says, “The timing of the decision will be extremely disruptive to ag retailers, distributors, manufacturers, and farmers planning to use the products in 2024.” The ARA points out that farmers have already made their decisions about what varieties of cotton and soybean seeds they want to plant this year, and retailers are already stocking not only the seeds but also the herbicides the growers need for their systems. “The decision comes after most planning is finished and while we are procuring those products that farmers need,” the ARA adds. “It’s the worst possible time.”

CoBank: Lack of Heifers May Limit Milk Production Growth

A sharp decline in the number of dairy heifers available to replace older cows exiting the U.S. dairy herd could limit meaningful growth in milk production. The number of dairy replacement heifers has fallen almost 15 percent in the last six years to reach a 20-year low. While the global demand outlook for U.S. dairy products is murky due to export market uncertainties, any potential growth opportunities may get stymied by an inability to expand U.S. milk production. A new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange says the rising cost of rearing dairy heifer calves has far outpaced increases in heifer values over the last several years. That imbalance has prompted dairy farmers to reduce their replacement heifer inventories, doing so, in large part, by breeding more dairy heifers and cows to beef bulls. “Farmers can cut costs associated with heifers and generate additional income from beef,” says Cory Geiger of CoBank.

Renewable Diesel to Expand by 30 Percent Annually

The Energy Information Administration predicts renewable diesel production to increase by 30 percent annually in both 2024 and 2025. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA says renewable diesel production will average approximately 230,000 barrels per day in 2024 and expand to 290,000 barrels per day in 2025. In comparison, production averaged approximately 200,000 barrels per day at the end of 2023. Renewable diesel production capacity has expanded significantly in recent years. EIA data shows capacity was at 1.75 billion gallons a year in January 2022 and had reached 3.85 billion gallons a year by November 2023. The EIA also announced it is reducing U.S. crude oil capacity forecast by 120,000 barrels per day beginning in March. That prediction comes after Phillips 66 plans to permanently stop processing crude oil at its Rodeo refinery in California next month. The company is planning to convert the facility to produce renewable diesel.

NIAA Adopts New Strategic Plan

To ensure the National Institute for Animal Agriculture continues to meet its mission, the board of directors adopted a new strategic plan earlier this year. The board adopted the NIAA 2024 – 2026 Strategic Plan during their January meeting. “Fellow board members and I are looking forward to implementing these new strategic pillars and building on achievements from the past four years,” says Dr. Eric Moore, NIAA Chair. The strategic plan focuses on four pillars. The first is Convening: NIAA is the top forum for convening diverse thought leaders in animal ag. Number two is Leadership Development which empowers leaders to positively affect the future of animal agriculture. Three is Communications and Marketing which disseminates resources to the industry. The fourth is Fostering Innovation in Animal Agriculture, which includes facilitating awareness of innovative technologies and practices that are economically viable and scientifically sound to improve the profitability and sustainability of animal agriculture.