POET and Summit Announce Partnership

POET Ethanol and Summit Carbon Solutions announced a partnership connecting the world’s largest biofuel producer with the world’s largest carbon capture and storage project. The collaboration will capture the value of biogenic CO2 from the bioethanol production process. The partnership strategically expands the carbon opportunity across the Midwest by incorporating POET’s 12 Iowa facilities and five South Dakota facilities into the Summit project. “As the world seeks low-carbon energy solutions, carbon capture ensures that ag-based biofuels will remain competitive for decades,” says POET CEO Jeff Broin. “This is a tremendous opportunity to bring value to farmers, bioethanol producers, and rural communities in participating states.” Broin also believes this collaboration will unleash even more opportunities for ag and bioprocessing in the future. “This initiative is aimed at enhancing the financial profitability of our farmers and ensuring a more prosperous future for rural communities,” says Lee Blank, CEO of Summit Carbon Solutions.

New California Biofuels Plant Impacts Soybean Market

The increasing use of biofuels should generate bullish vibes for agricultural commodities in the future. E-T-F Trends says plans for a biofuel plant in California could spur more investors to take a closer look at agricultural commodities. California has one of the more ambitious plans when it comes to reducing carbon emissions. Given this, the use of a biofuel plant could spur other states to follow suit. In turn, that would increase demand for agricultural commodities like soybeans and corn. A Bloomberg report confirmed that soybean oil prices in Chicago rose amid speculation that the new biofuels plant in California got the green light to begin operations in a few weeks. The plant is a former crude oil refinery that will use waste oils, fats, greases, and vegetable oils to produce an initial 800 million gallons of renewable fuels a year, including renewable diesel, renewable gasoline, and sustainable aviation fuel.

100 Billion Miles on E15

Growth Energy released data showing American drivers recently surpassed the massive milestone of 100 billion miles driven on affordable, homegrown E15 fuel. The 15 percent biofuel blend saves drivers an average of 15 cents a gallon at the pump. In some states, amid higher fuel costs last summer, drivers saw E15 savings climb as high as 60 cents per gallon. “At Growth Energy, we’re proud to lead the charge on American-made, plant-based fuels,” says CEO Emily Skor. “Homegrown biofuels deliver value for consumers at the pump, value for American agriculture and rural communities, and value for our nation’s climate goals.” She also says they’re proud of the 100 billion miles driven on E15 and excited that consumers have access to an affordable, Earth-friendly option to fuel their travels. “There aren’t many products on the market today that allow consumers to save money and lower carbon emissions like E15,” Skor adds.

Producers Can Make USDA Loan Payments Online

The USDA says most farm loan borrowers will be able to make loan payments online through the Pay My Loan feature on farmers.gov in early February. Pay My Loan is part of a broader effort by the Farm Service Agency to streamline its processes, especially for producers who may have limited time during the planting or harvest seasons to visit a local FSA office. “Farmers and ranchers have responded to some difficult challenges over the last few years, and their time is a precious commodity,” says USDA Deputy Undersecretary Xochitl (so-CHEEL) Torres Small. “Having the option to conduct business online is essential, and the Pay My Loan feature allows customers to take care of business seamlessly.” On average, local USDA centers process more than 225,000 farm loan payments each year. Pay My Loan gives most borrowers an online repayment option and relieves them from traveling to a local Service Center.

December Soy Crush Continues Streak

The U.S. soybean crush likely hit 6.185 million short tons in December 2023, or 296.1 million bushels, the most for any month in recorded history. Analysts surveyed ahead of the monthly USDA report noted it would be the third straight month that the national soybean crush topped 200 million bushels as the expanding U.S. soy processing industry has been crushing larger and larger numbers of beans to meet the rising demand for vegetable oil from biofuel makers. If that December estimate gets realized, it would be up from the 200.1 million bushels crushed in November and up 10 percent from the December 2022 crush of 187.4 million bushels. But Successful Farming says last month’s estimated average daily crush rate of 6.649 million bushels would be down from a record daily pace of 6.669 million set in November, which has one less day. Crush estimates range from 203.8 million to 207 million bushels.

Soybeans and Wheat Export Inspections Decline

Soybean and wheat inspections for exports declined in the week ending on January 25, while the corn total improved. USDA data says soybean inspections last week reached 889,717 metric tons, down from 1.18 million a week earlier. That’s also down from the 1.93 million tons examined during the same week last year. Wheat assessments came in at 264,666 tons, down from 315,186 tons the prior week, and well below the 446,000 tons inspected during the same period last year. Corn inspections rose to almost 902,000 tons from 746,900 the week before and 545,000 tons at the same time in 2023. Since the start of the marketing year, USDA has inspected 15.6 million metric tons of corn for export, up from 12.1 million last year. Soybean inspections now stand at 27.7 million tons, down from 36.2 million last year. Wheat inspections are at 11 million tons, down from 13.2 million last year.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

The Labor Department's employment cost index for the fourth quarter is set for 8:30 a.m. CST. The Energy Department's weekly energy inventory report is at 9:30 a.m. The Federal Reserve's rate announcement is at 1 p.m. and is expected to keep rates unchanged, but traders will be listening to any Fed comments. USDA's report of U.S. January 1 cattle inventory at 2 p.m. will get more attention than usual with a chance inventory will fall below the 2014 low of 88.5 million head, possibly the lowest number of U.S. cattle since 1952.

Weather

A large trough and atmospheric river event is starting to move onto the West Coast Wednesday morning. The event will be a big one that causes a storm system for Friday through the weekend farther east. Until then, it continues to be quiet and warm for much of the country with some places breaking record highs.

Strengthening U.S. Specialty Crops Through Investments

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack announced USDA investments designed to support the U.S. specialty crops industry. The launch of the Assisting Specialty Crop Exports Initiative will provide $65 million for projects that will help the specialty crop sector increase global exports and expand access to new markets. USDA also announced $72.9 million in grant funding available to support the specialty crops industry through the Specialty Crop Grant Program. The program will fund innovative projects designed to bolster the competitiveness of the expanding specialty crops sector. Specialty crop exports totaled $24.6 billion in fiscal year 2023 and represented 13.8 percent of total U.S. agricultural exports. “Specialty crop producers feed our nation and the world with nutritious fruits, nuts, and vegetables, and they supply our communities with horticulture products,” Vilsack says. “Yet they have unique challenges and opportunities to competing in the domestic market and several barriers preventing their products from entering foreign markets.”

Hawaii Producers Hit Hard by Wildfires and High Winds

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service estimates that Hawaiian producers incurred $23.1 million in economic loss and damages from wildfires and high winds in August 2023. Those losses include the reduction of agricultural sales due to damages to markets or reduced customers, reduced agritourism income between August and December, livestock deaths, damaged or destroyed crops, and property damages. Producers estimate they lost $5.2 million in sales revenue, lost $3.9 million in agritourism revenue, lost $75,000 worth of livestock, suffered $5.4 million in crop damages, and $8.5 million in property damage. Producers reported that 7,850 acres of pasture were damaged by the wildfires and high winds. Livestock deaths included cattle, sheep, goats, poultry, honeybee colonies, horses, and alpacas. Producers reported damage to floriculture and vegetable crops, some bananas, coffee, and other fruit crops. The $8.5 million in property damage included buildings, vehicles, irrigation equipment, farm machinery, fences, and other structures like water tanks.

Farm Bureau Backs American Sugar Producers

As part of the policy resolutions set during their recent national convention, the American Farm Bureau continued support for a no-cost sugar policy. “We appreciate Farm Bureau’s continued support of our no-cost policy,” says Cassie Bladow (BLAY-dough), chairwoman of the American Sugar Alliance. “We appreciate having AFBF as a strong partner as we advocate for America’s sugar producers in the next farm bill.” Farm Bureau’s policy resolution advocates for a program that safeguards the interests of domestic sugar producers and supports critical pillars in the sugar policy, including a program to protect the interests of domestic sugar producers. They’re also in favor of legislation that includes provisions that ensure a strong and economically viable domestic sugar policy. They also support a program that meets our trade commitments and ensures a fair playing field for American producers. As the largest farm group, AFBF has consistently supported sugar policy in the farm bill.

Biomass Diesel Production Grew 25 Percent Last Year

Clean Fuels Alliance welcomed the Environmental Protection Agency’s release of public data for the Renewable Fuel Standard. That data shows U.S. production of biomass-based diesel - including biodiesel, renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and heating oil – reached four billion gallons in 2023. Both domestic production and use of advanced biomass-based diesel grew by one billion gallons in 2023 compared to the prior year. “The clean fuels industry achieved what EPA said couldn’t be done by contributing to the growth of advanced biodiesel, renewable diesel, SAF, and heating oil from sustainably sourced feedstocks,” says Kurt Kovarik, vice president of federal affairs for Clean Fuels. “Our industry, including producers, oilseed processors, fuel distributors, and marketers, has made significant investments to make clean fuels available to more consumers and rapidly decarbonize heavy-duty transportation fuels, including for aviation and marine markets.” He also says that EPA’s data demonstrates the projected sustainable growth is being achieved.

Growing Future Leaders on GIVE FFA Day

Interested people are invited to support the FFA and agricultural education through Give FFA Day on Thursday, February 22. For the eighth straight year, funds raised support programs on local, state, and national levels. During the 24 hours of giving, supporters can donate to the National FFA and the state FFA associations of their choice. In February, the organization will celebrate FFA, advisors, and members as part of National FFA Week, which includes giving back during Give FFA Day. For over 90 years, the National FFA Organization has strived to make a difference in students’ lives. Donations help FFA grow the next generation of leaders. Through FFA, members can find their path to success. With almost a million members, there is a need for sustained funding to provide valuable programs, events, skills training, and more. “FFA has been instrumental in growing my skills,” says Lauren Thornhill, an Ohio state FFA officer.

Don’t Fumble Your Super Bowl Party

Safely serving friends and family during the big game is a win. The USDA says don’t fumble Super Bowl Sunday on February 11. As football fans gather to watch the big game, they’ll enjoy many of their favorite foods. Whether you order delivery or are preparing and serving food to guests, the Food Safety and Inspection Service has some gameday plans to keep your Super Bowl celebration from getting intercepted by foodborne illness. Among their many food safety tips, FSIS says if you order takeout before the game, make sure someone is there to get to the food in a timely manner. Make sure to get any uneaten food into the refrigerator as quickly as possible. Perishable foods that have been sitting out at room temperature must be eaten within two hours of being cooked. “Food safety must remain a top priority,” says USDA Undersecretary for Food Safety Dr. Emilio Esteban.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Traders remain interested in South American weather with hot temperatures expected to stress Argentina's corn and soybean crops this week. A report on U.S. consumer confidence will be out at 9 a.m. and a two-day Federal Reserve meeting begins. The federal funds rate target is expected to remain unchanged at Wednesday's 1 p.m. announcement.

Weather

A small clipper system is moving through the eastern half of the Midwest with a band of mixed rain and snow on Tuesday that will get into the Southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. Mostly light accumulations are expected outside of the higher elevations. It continues to be quite warm as the country awaits the arrival of a large trough in the West by Wednesday.

Food Price Inflation Subsided in 2023

USDA’s Economic Research Service says food-at-home prices increased by five percent in 2023, much lower than the growth rate in 2022 of 11 percent. However, that was still double the historical annual average growth rate from 2003 to 2022, which was 2.5 percent. All product categories grew more slowly in 2023 than they did compared to 2022. Food price growth slowed last year as economy-wide inflationary pressures, supply chain issues, and wholesale food prices eased from 2022. In 2023, prices for fats and oils grew the fastest at nine percent. Sugars and sweets are 8.7 percent, and cereals and bakery products rose 8.4 percent. Pork prices dropped 1.2 percent in 2023l. Prices for several categories grew more slowly than their historical averages, including beef and veal at 3.6 percent, eggs 1.4 percent, fresh vegetables at less than one percent. Fresh fruits and seafood grew 0.7 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.

Shielding Agriculture from Cyber Attacks

Two senators introduced legislation intended to boost the agricultural industry’s resilience against cyber attacks. The bipartisan measure from Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) is backed by a number of agricultural groups. If passed, the bill would shield America’s supply chain from technological attacks. “America’s adversaries are looking for any advantage they can use against us, including targeting critical industries like agriculture,” Cotton says. The bill would require the USDA to conduct a twice-yearly study on cybersecurity threats to the agriculture industry. Courthouse News Service says the review would include analyzing existing threats, the potential impacts of a cyberattack on the safety and availability of food products, and the government’s ability to respond to an attack. USDA would also have to conduct an interagency “cross-sector crisis simulation exercise that mocks up a food-related national emergency. These exercises would help identify gaps in the government’s readiness to respond to such emergencies.

USDA Deputy Secretary Touring Land-Grant Universities

USDA’s Deputy Secretary Xochitl (so-CHEEL) Torres Small is continuing a multi-week tour throughout the country’s land-grant universities. During her tour, the Deputy is visiting campuses in at least seven states to highlight how the agency is working with those universities to advance rural prosperity, climate-smart practices, competition, and sustainability. USDA is investing new funding for education and training, advancing cutting edge research, and bolstering economic development to build a food and agriculture food system that’s climate-smart, sustainable, and equitable. “Investments in the next generation of agriculture will benefit people in every sector of ag, food, and forestry,” says Torres Small. “At USDA, we’re committed to the future of our students and delivering real-life, applicable solutions to decades old problems like bringing broadband internet to communities around the country.” USDA’s National Institute for Food and Agriculture has provided more than $5 billion in support of land-grant university campuses since fiscal year 2021.

Britain Pauses Trade Talks Over Agriculture

Britain has halted negotiations on a potential free trade deal with Canada because of dissatisfaction by both sides over a lack of access to each other’s agricultural markets. Reuters says the talks first launched in March 2022. Canadian negotiators say they’re disappointed that the UK put a pause on the negotiations, noting that Britain’s decision to keep barriers up for Canada’s agricultural market access is what’s stalling the negotiations. Canada’s farmers are complaining that they’ve been all but shut out of Britain’s beef market because of regulations banning the use of artificial hormones. A UK spokesperson posted on Twitter (X) that they reserve the right to call a pause on negotiations with any country if we don’t think progress is getting made. Before Britain made its exit from the European Union trading sphere at the end of 2020, Canada rolled over existing trade arrangements to ensure that free trade could continue. 

CA Ranchers Watching Wolves Attack Cattle Herds

Ranchers in California who see wolves attacking their cattle can only watch, unlike other states where wolves can be shot for it. Meantime, a California state fund set aside to compensate ranchers for their losses is quickly running out of money. “Not only can you not kill a wolf for attacking  and killing one of your calves, but you also can’t injure it in any way,” says Kirk Wilbur, vice president of government affairs for the California Cattlemen’s Association. Cowboy State Daily says that’s the opposite of the policy in Wyoming, where wolves can be shot at any time. Ten years ago, Wolves began making their way from Oregon into California, and the northern part of the state now has over 40 established wolf packs. California put a $3 million compensation package in place during 2021, but it’s now running low on money. The current 102 applications will deplete the remaining funds.

Lamb Board Releases 2023 Annual Report

The American Lamb Board released its fiscal year 2023 Annual Report to share programs and success stories with mandatory lamb checkoff stakeholders over the last year. The American lamb industry saw many successes during 2023, including an overall increase in demand for lamb nationwide. However, it comes at a critical point when U.S. flock numbers are declining. Many ALB programs focus on increasing demand for American lamb, but industry education and research are also at the forefront of the board’s work. Among the 2023 highlights in the report is a Sustainability Spotlight, where growers can find information about the Climate Smart Grant, a new Sustainability Director, a landmark environmental footprint study, and much more. There are promotional highlights featuring a growing food blogger network, cooking classes, events, and retail promotions. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, the board is working on new industry workshops, promotions, educational opportunities, and research projects.

Top 5 Things to Watch - Cattle Chats and Flooded Flats

1. Cattle convenings: This week marks the 2024 cattle industry CattleCon in Orlando. Watch for event news from DTN Senior Livestock Editor Jennifer Carrico. If you're in town and see her, buy her a cup of coffee for us. She's earning it.

2. From freeze to flood: Weather is expected to continue to warm up across the country this week. That sets up flooding conditions in areas where heavy snow melt occurs where creeks and rivers are still ice covered. There are already weekend flood warnings in areas of Illinois, others may be added into the week. 

3. Immigration breakdown: Attend any ag-related meeting and the subject of farm labor shortages and immigration issues are likely on the agenda. With late-week rumblings of presidential politics throwing roadblocks in pending immigration legislation, we'll watch through the week to see if any significant policies bust through.

4. Market happenings: In the grains, attention will be on rains in Argentina and parts of Brazil, as solid yield potential in the Southern Hemisphere pulls down on soybean futures charts. 

5. Economic reports to watch: First ag-related report of the week is Monday's 10 a.m. release of U.S. Grain Inspections. Tuesday starts with the 8 a.m. filing of the Case and Shiller Home Price Index. At 9 a.m. the lates Job Openings and Consumer Confidence Index numbers hit. Wednesday, ADP releases its latest employment figures at 7:15 a.m.; at 1 p.m. we'll get the Federal Reserve Interest rate decision. At 2 p.m. there are several releases, including the Broiler Hatchery report and the Bi-Annual Cattle Report, which will show inventory and value of cattle and calves. Also included are statistics on cattle on feed and grazing on small grain pasture, as well as calf crop data. Thursday starts with a 7:30 a.m. release of Initial Jobless Claims and the U.S. Grain Weekly Export Sales report. At 8:45 a.m. the U.S. Manufacturing PMI will be released. The week closes with Friday's 7:30 a.m. release of U.S. Nonfarm payroll data, U.S. Unemployment Rate and U.S. Hourly Wages. At 9 a.m. Factory Orders reports will be released.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders continue to monitor the latest weather forecasts in South America and events in the Middle East. USDA's weekly report of export inspections at 10 a.m. is the only significant report of the day.

Weather

It's a rather quiet day Monday as a ridge dominates the majority of the continent. Some showers will drop down into the Great Lakes areas tonight into Tuesday with a small disturbance. The ridge will also mean warm temperatures again, with the highest anomalies across the far north into Canada.

Cold Blast Drops Ethanol Production to Three-Year Low

A blast of cold weather in the Corn Belt sent ethanol production down 22 percent last week to its lowest point in three years. Bloomberg says America’s output of the corn-based biofuel missed all its survey estimates while stockpiles hit the highest level since March. The Energy Information Administration says the rise in stockpiles was the eighth straight week of increases. Ethanol production dropped to 18,000 barrels a day during the week ending on January 19, down from 1.054 million barrels during the previous week and the lowest level since the seven days ending on February 19, 2021. The Midwest, which produces the most ethanol in the country, had production fall to 766,000 barrels a day, a significant drop from 1.001 million a week earlier. The EIA says Rocky Mountain production declined, East Coast production was unchanged, and Gulf Coast production rose by 21,000 barrels a day. Inventories reached 25.815 million barrels.

Animal ID That Works for All Producers

The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association reiterates its call to strengthen and establish a national animal identification system that works for and is accountable to all producers. There should be no private control of data or access to the data without the prior approval of the listed owner of the cattle at the time of application for the ID tags. All official USDA tag information should be held in state animal health databases and shared with federal health officials only as needed. USCA also insists that under no circumstances should a national cattlemen’s association coordinate or control producer data. Producers should also never be responsible for more than the cost of the tags. “USCA supports a voluntary national animal identification program and opposes establishing a national mandate,” says USCA President Justin Tupper. “Our members believe that each individual producer knows what’s best for their herd as it relates to animal husbandry practices.”

Ongoing Preparations for the 57th World Ag Expo

The “Best Farm Show on Dirt” is coming up quickly. The International Agri-Center is preparing to host the 57th annual World Ag Expo in Tulare, California, February 13-15. The World Ag Expo welcomes attendees and exhibitors from around the world and provides a platform for networking, education, and business. Last year, the show saw more than 108,000 attendees from 49 states and 56 countries. Over 1,200 exhibitors shared 2.6 million square feet of exhibit space in 2023. Show officials note that 97 percent of exhibit spaces were sold as of January 19 and domestic and international ticket sales are trending at record levels. “There is so much innovation to see on the show grounds,” says Stan Creelman, 2024 World Ag Expo Show Chair, “from large manufacturers to small innovators and every solution in between.” Organizers predict 2024 may be a record year for the show. For more information, go to worldagexpo.org.

New Rule Will Increase Efficiency in Rail Systems

The Surface Transportation Board announced it has adopted a final rule to amend its emergency service regulations to provide immediate relief for shippers in certain situations. The rule says the Board may act on its own to direct emergency rail service and establish an accelerated process for acute service emergencies. The Board has heard from a broad range of stakeholders about inconsistent and unreliable rail service and issued two orders mandating service in urgent situations. Stakeholder concerns have included railroad crew shortages and inability to move trains, tight car supplies and unfilled orders, delays in transportation for carload and bulk traffic, and ineffective customer assistance. “This approach to managing service emergencies is a long-needed reform that will help level the playing field for shippers where rail service failures have caused an acute threat to their business, or when emergency relief is necessary to protect the public, says Board Chair Martin Oberman.  

Deadline for NCGA Scholarship Applications Approaching

The National Corn Growers Association is committed to the future of agriculture. To support the next generation of leaders in American agriculture, NCGA has partnered with BASF to offer scholarships to students enrolled in qualifying institutions. NCGA is proud to offer and support three scholarship programs for three distinct audiences. The Technical School/Community College Scholarship offers $1,000 scholarships to five students pursuing a degree at one of these institutions. The William Berg Academic Excellence Scholarship Program will offer five $1,500 scholarships to undergraduate students pursuing degrees in any field. The Graduate Student Scholarship Program offers two $2,500 scholarships to graduate students whose area of study will benefit the corn industry. “Empowering future leaders in ag is vital for fostering a resilient rural economy in the coming years,” says NCGA Membership and Consumer Engagement Action Team Chair Dan Nerud. “NCGA remains committed to providing opportunities for students driven to serve farm families.”

December Milk Production Drops Slightly

The 24 states that produce the most milk totaled 18.1 billion pounds in December, down 0.1 percent from December 2022. November’s revised production, at 17.3 billion pounds, was 0.6 percent below November 2022. The November revision represented a decrease of 14 million pounds or less than 0.1 percent from November’s preliminary production estimate. The USDA says production per cow in those states averaged 2,030 pounds for December, one pound above December 2022. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 states was 8.9 million head, 17,000 head below December 2022 but unchanged from November 2023. U.S. milk production during the October-December quarter totaled 55.6 billion pounds, down 0.6 percent from the same quarter in 2023. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.36 million head, 16,000 head less than the July-September quarter, and 44,000 head less than the same time during the prior year.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Traders will be watching the weather for South America, and any new flash export sales at 8 a.m. CST. At 7:30 a.m. CST, Personal Spending and Personal Income data will be released, and at 9 a.m. we'll see Pending Home Sales.

Weather

Another system has entered the Southern Plains early Friday and will continue to provide scattered rain showers to the region throughout the day. More scattered showers will also develop across the Southern Delta and Southeast while precipitation exits the Eastern Midwest.

American Farm Bureau Establishes 2024 Policies

The American Farm Bureau Federation concluded its 2024 Annual Convention setting policy direction for the organization this year. Passing a farm bill this year is the top priority for Farm Bureau members, followed by labor and artificial intelligence data privacy. Delegates voted to create new policy to address the growth of artificial intelligence in agriculture, which has the potential to enhance farming practices and conserve resources, but AFBF says privacy rights must be respected. Delegates also voted to stabilize wage rates for guest workers and revise H-2A and H-2B programs. They reaffirmed their support for increasing reference prices in the farm bill and maintaining a strong crop insurance program, including expanding eligibility to ensure more commodities are covered. Additionally, Farm Bureau delegates agreed to say in the Rural Communications section of the policy book, "We support vehicle manufacturers continuing to include AM radio in vehicles.” Beyond policy changes, AFBF President Zippy Duvall and Vice President Scott VanderWal were unanimously re-elected for another two-year term.

First Sustainable Aviation Fuel Plant Represents Opportunity

Sustainable aviation fuel could grow into the largest new market ever seen for U.S. farm commodities thanks to the start of production at LanzaJet Freedom Pines Fuels. However, groups in Midwestern states say they could miss out on the opportunity without low-carbon ethanol, which requires carbon capture and sequestration. Iowa Renewable Fuels Association executive director Monte Shaw says, "Today and every day going forward, American farmers and ethanol producers are losing demand until we get carbon capture and sequestration online." Iowa Corn Usage and Production Committee Chair Dan Keitzer adds, “LanzaJet Freedom Pines Fuels will use a variety of low carbon sustainable ethanol, making this an eye-opening experience to what Iowa corn farmers could expect to be a part of." No Iowa ethanol plant currently has a carbon intensity score low enough to qualify as an SAF feedstock. Only one plant in the U.S., using CCS, is currently producing SAF-friendly ethanol.

Emergency Relief Program Payments Concentrated in North Dakota, Texas

New data from USDA’s Economic Research Services shows Emergency Relief Program payments are largely concentrated in North Dakota and Texas. In 2020 and 2021, the United States experienced 42 disaster events, each resulting in damages of at least $1 billion, including hurricanes, drought, and wildfires. The Emergency Relief Program provides funds to assist commodity growers who suffered losses from natural disasters in those years. As of January 2023, cumulative payments made through the ERP totaled $7.3 billion. USDA disbursed a large portion of this total, $1.16 billion, to North Dakota producers of corn, soybeans, and wheat, who experienced flooding in 2020 and drought in 2021. Texas producers also received a sizable portion of payments, with cotton farmers receiving $510 million of the $909 million disbursed in that State. Producers in North Dakota and Texas received most ERP payments for revenue, quality, or production losses because of moisture and drought that occurred during the 2020 and 2021 crop years.

USDA: December Egg Production Up 3%

USDA’s monthly Chicken and Eggs report released this week shows December egg production increased three percent. United States egg production totaled 9.45 billion during December 2023. Production included 8.14 billion table eggs, and 1.31 billion hatching eggs, of which 1.21 billion were broiler-type and 97.0 million were egg-type. The total number of layers during December 2023 averaged 384 million, up two percent from last year. December egg production per 100 layers was 2,462 eggs, up one percent from December 2022. All layers in the United States on January 1, 2024, totaled 379 million, up one percent from last year. The 379 million layers consisted of 312 million layers producing table or market type eggs, 63.6 million layers producing broiler-type hatching eggs, and 3.83 million layers producing egg-type hatching eggs. Rate of lay per day on January 1, 2024, averaged 79.3 eggs per 100 layers, up two percent from January 1, 2023.

McCain Global Reports Sustainability Progress

In its Global Sustainability Report, McCain Foods announced progress towards its sustainability commitments this week. The company aims to implement regenerative agriculture practices across 100 percent of the global acreage that grows potatoes for McCain products by the end of the decade. The Global Sustainable Report shows 51 percent of McCain's global potato acreage onboarded within McCain's Regenerative Agriculture Framework, and 28 percent moving up the framework towards more comprehensive adoption of regenerative practices. McCain is accelerating the adoption of regenerative agriculture practices through its direct relationships with farmers— a network of 3,500 partners around the world — by providing technical and educational assistance and developing innovative financing solutions to offset costs associated with making changes in farming practices and adopting new technologies. McCain Foods Limited is a family-owned business founded in 1957 in Florenceville, New Brunswick, Canada. Today, the company is the world’s largest manufacturer of frozen potato products.

Organic Valley Announces First Agreements, Payments to Farmers

Organic Valley, the largest cooperative of organic farmers in the nation, announced the first agreements and payments to initial organic farmers participating in Organic Valley's Carbon Insetting Program this week. Building off the University of Wisconsin-Madison published research in the Journal for Cleaner Production, which showed Organic Valley's average on-farm milk emissions were some of the lowest in the nation, the cooperative is taking the next step to improve the carbon footprint of its milk. As a recipient of the USDA Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities grant, the co-op is offering additional support for practices implemented on eligible Organic Valley member-owner farms, including selecting and scoping region-specific projects, verification of those projects, and then helping to fund the practice installation. The co-op offers technical assistance to help farmers plan and design carbon-reducing projects, sources grant implementation funds and ensures monitoring and verification of those projects. The projects include renewable energy installations at farmsteads, upgraded manure management technology, and enteric-reducing feed supplements.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Traders will be awaiting U.S. export sales for last week, along with watching for any changes in South American weather. Also, at 7:30 a.m. CST, we will get Fourth Quarter GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, and Durable Goods Orders. At 9 a.m. CST, New Home Sales will be released.

Weather

A low pressure system along a stalled frontal boundary will provide scattered showers across the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast Thursday. Along with the risk for heavy rainfall across the Southeast, a few strong to severe thunderstorms may also form across the region. Farther west, drier conditions return to the Central and Southern Plains throughout Thursday.

Some Republican Lawmakers Against Raising Reference Prices

Following calls by some groups to increase reference prices in the upcoming Farm Bill, Republican lawmakers stand in "strong opposition" to any potential increases. Republican Representatives Alex Mooney of West Virginia, along with Tennessee's Andy Ogles, Brian Mast of Florida, and others, say any increase would further drive inflation higher. The letter states, "At a time when Congress must be taking steps to reduce federal spending, we must resist costly attempts to expand the scope of government intervention in the free market." The lawmakers argue that "higher price guarantees" would mostly benefit fewer than 6,000 farms. Increasing price guarantees for major crops would mostly benefit peanut, cotton, and rice farmers in Southern states, not corn and soybean farmers, according to the letter. Since payments are linked to production, the largest producers get the lion's share of the funding. In 2021, just ten percent of farmers received more than 80 percent of all Price Loss Coverage payments, the lawmakers claim.

Small Family Farms at Highest Financial Risk

Small family farms were more likely to have greater financial vulnerability than other farms, according to data from USDA’s Economic Research Service. Researchers calculated the operating profit margin by taking the ratio of profit to gross farm income to find that in 2022, between 52 and 79 percent of small family farms, depending on the farm type, were at the high-risk level. If the operating profit margin is less than ten percent, the operation is considered at high financial risk. When the measure is between 10 and 25 percent, the operation is considered at medium financial risk, and if above 25 percent, the operation is at low financial risk. A majority of small-scale family farms, which have a gross cash farm income of up to $350,000, earn most of their income from off-farm sources. For these farms, farm profitability is not necessarily essential to the survival of the household. Small family farms make up 88 percent of all farms but account for only 19 percent of the total value of production.

ADM Investigating Chief Financial Officer

This week, ADM appointed an interim chief financial officer while the current CFO, Vikram Luthar, was placed on administrative leave. Luthar's leave is pending an ongoing investigation conducted by outside counsel for ADM and the Board's Audit Committee regarding certain accounting practices and procedures concerning ADM's Nutrition segment, including certain intersegment transactions. ADM's investigation was initiated in response to a voluntary document request by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. ADM Lead Director Terry Crews says, "Pending the outcome of the investigation, the Board determined that it was advisable to place Luthar on administrative leave. The Board will continue working closely with ADM's advisors to identify the best path forward and ensure ADM's processes align with financial governance best practices.” ADM will make further announcements regarding the matter when the Board of Directors see fit.

Iowa Senate Bill Would Support Small Grocers

A bill introduced last week in the Iowa Senate seeks to provide resources to small grocery store owners fighting to keep their stores open amidst economic and workforce challenges and competition from big box retailers. The legislation would create the Grocer Reinvestment Fund and establish a grant and loan program to help locally-owned grocery stores selling perishable foods invest in their businesses. Cynthia Farmer, policy associate with the Center for Rural Affairs, says, "The Grocer Reinvestment Fund and Program would provide financial support to grocers for cost-saving efforts and business efficiency to ensure long-term sustainability." The Iowa Economic Development Authority will oversee the grant and loan program if the bill passes. Funding will be available to grocery stores that sell canned and frozen food; fresh fruits and vegetables; and fresh meat, fish, and poultry. The business must employ 25 or fewer individuals and plan to create new jobs or increase compensation for existing employees.

FFA Members Explore Agriculture in Australia

More than 70 current and past state FFA officers started the new year by exploring Australia and the various types of agriculture the country offers. It was part of the International Leadership Seminar for State Officers, supported by FFA corporate donors Bungee and John Deere. While in Australia, the students explored Sydney. Then they traveled to Canberra, where they visited with the counselor for agricultural affairs, agricultural specialists and agricultural marketing specialists based at the U.S. Embassy, a representative from the National Farmers' Federation, and a representative from the Australian Rural Leadership Program. They visited perennial pastures, Angus cattle farms, and more. While visiting the Darlington Point District, they explored one of Australia’s most productive farmland, where rice and other cereal crops, fruits and vegetables, grapes, and citrus are grown. Students also visited Australia's only independent agricultural college. They wrapped up their journey in Melbourne, exploring the city and visiting a wildlife sanctuary.

NCBA Provides Internship Opportunities in Denver and D.C.

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association is providing multiple internship opportunities for students to learn about different aspects of the cattle industry. Internships are offered in NCBA’s offices in Denver, Colorado and Washington, D.C. New this year, NCBA is launching a Producer Education and Sustainability Internship focused on implementing the cattle industry's sustainability goals, supporting the Beef Checkoff-funded Beef Quality Assurance program, and providing educational resources to cattle producers to improve land management, animal health, and profitability. The internship will occur in the summer of 2024. NCBA and the Public Lands Council are also now accepting applications for the summer 2024 Public Policy Internship in Washington, D.C., from May 20 – August 23, 2024. The internship allows students to work jointly with NCBA and PLC to advance policies important to the beef and sheep industries. The full description and qualifications for both internship opportunities are available on the careers page of ncba.org. Applications are due by February 23, 2024.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Traders continue to monitor changes in South American weather and will soon be picking up more soybean harvest reports from Brazil. The Energy Department's weekly energy inventory report will be out at 9:30 a.m. CST and USDA's monthly cold storage report will follow at 2 p.m.

Weather

More rounds of rain showers will plague the central U.S. Wednesday as rain showers are expected to continue from the southeast Plains into the Ohio Valley. A few strong to severe storms are possible in southeastern Texas, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi as well. Heavy rain could also lead to areas of flooding across the Southern Delta and Tennessee Valley.

USDA Investing $207 Million in Clean Energy and Domestic Fertilizer Projects

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack Monday announced USDA is investing $207 million in renewable energy and domestic fertilizer projects. Vilsack made the announcement at the 105th annual American Farm Bureau Federation convention in Salt Lake City, Utah. Vilsack says, “The investments announced will expand access to renewable energy infrastructure and increase domestic fertilizer production, all while creating good-paying jobs and saving people money on their energy costs that they can then invest back into their businesses and communities.” USDA is investing in projects in 42 states, funded through the Rural Energy for America Program and the Fertilizer Production Expansion Program. The Rural Energy for America Program awards total $157 million for 675 projects in 42 states. Projects financed through the Fertilizer Production Expansion Program will help U.S. farmers increase independent, domestic fertilizer production. The investments include $50 million in seven projects in seven states. Funding supports long-term investments that will strengthen supply chains, create new economic opportunities for American businesses, and support climate-smart innovation.

AFBF Makes Call for Farm Bill Passage

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall encouraged AFBF members to press Congress to pass a new Farm Bill. Speaking at the AFBF annual convention in Salt Lake City, Utah, which kicked off Sunday, Duvall told members of AFBF, “I’m asking you to send a resounding message to Congress to deliver a new farm bill for our farms and our country.” Duvall continued, “The road to a new farm bill has become longer than any of us would have liked, but together we can see it through.” Many believe Congress needs to act in the first half of the year to complete a farm bill and avoid the thick of election season this fall. Representative Blake Moore, a Republican from Utah, told the audience making a personal connection with lawmakers works best. He says, “Most members of Congress, whether they have a ‘D’ or an ‘R’ in front of their name, they do believe there is a need for strong agriculture.”

Farm Groups Launch Mental Health Initiative

Farm Family Wellness Alliance launched Togetherall over the weekend, launching free, anonymous, online mental health and wellbeing services for farm families. Announced at the American Farm Bureau Federation annual convention in Salt Lake City, Utah, the effort offers a safe, clinically moderated peer-to-peer community, where members around the world are there to listen, support and give members' mental wellbeing a boost. AFBF President Zippy Duvall says, “It’s OK not to be OK, but it’s not OK not to reach out when you’re hurting.” Togetherall also offers a range of wellbeing tools, such as self-assessments and access to additional support services through a partnership with Personal Assistance Services. Topics covered include anxiety, depression, financial health, improving sleep and more. Farm Foundation started the Farm Family Wellness Alliance in 2020 following the Iowa derecho. The announcement this weekend expands the program nationwide. To learn more, visit farmfoundation.org.

Food-at-home Spending Drops Close to pre-COVID Levels

Following shifts in U.S. food spending during the COVID-19 pandemic, food-at-home spending was only 2.7 percent higher in November 2023 compared with November 2019. Food-away-from-home spending remained elevated at 14.6 percent higher, according to new data from USDA’s Economic Research Service. After an initial jump in inflation-adjusted food-at-home spending in March through May 2020, the spending leveled off, averaging just 2.8 percent higher in December 2020 compared with 2019. Even as prices increased throughout 2021 and 2022, inflation-adjusted food-at-home spending also increased, with monthly spending in these years averaging 7.2 percent higher than the corresponding months in 2019. Food at home spending has trended back toward pre-pandemic levels since the peak difference of 9.5 percent in March 2022. By contrast, food away-from-home spending initially fell during the pandemic but reversed quickly and outpaced 2019 spending starting in June 2021. Food at home spending peaked at 14.8 percent higher in March 2023 compared with March 2019.

Alltech 2023 U.S. Harvest Analysis Reveals Variable Mycotoxin Risk

U.S. farmers and producers have experienced droughts, high rainfall, and other weather events affecting the 2023 corn harvest, making it more critical than ever to analyze mycotoxin. The Alltech 2023 U.S. Harvest Analysis has collected and assessed almost 450 new-crop samples from across the U.S., and the results show regional variation in mycotoxin risk. Samples showed lower risk in the upper Midwest and higher risk in the East. A combination of drought and untimely rains led to much of the risk. Mycotoxins are produced by certain species of molds and are a concern for livestock producers, as they can influence feed quality and subsequent animal health and performance. Mycotoxin levels continue to be higher in the East and Midwest United States. Earlier harvest conditions and drier conditions in the West helped to create lower-risk conditions. The Alltech 2023 U.S. Harvest Analysis demonstrates that mycotoxins are an ongoing, dynamic issue that livestock producers need to manage. For more information about Alltech Mycotoxin Management solutions, visit knowmycotoxins.com.

Vilsack Traveling to Georgia to Tout SAF, School Meals

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack is in Georgia promoting USDA's school meals and sustainable aviation fuel this week. Vilsack Tuesday (today) is visiting a high school in East Point, Georgia, participating in a roundtable with child nutrition efforts. The discussion focuses on efforts to expand access to healthy meals for more students and improve the nutritional quality of those meals. Wednesday, Vilsack will provide Keynote remarks at the grand opening of LanzaJet Freedom Pines Fuels in Soperton, Georgia. The facility is the world’s first facility dedicated to the production of sustainable aviation fuel from ethanol. The visit comes as the Environmental Protection Agency released Public Data for the Renewable Fuel Standard, including final production volumes for 2023. EPA’s data shows that U.S. production of biomass-based diesel – including biodiesel, renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and heating oil – reached four billion gallons in 2023. Both domestic production and use of advanced biomass-based diesel grew by one billion gallons in 2023, compared to 2022.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Traders continue to pay attention to the weather in South America plus rising hostility from Iran and the latest threat from Russia. There are no significant market reports due out Tuesday.

Weather

While areas of freezing rain, snow, and a mix of rain and snow will continue across the Eastern Midwest and Great Lakes Tuesday, areas of heavy rainfall will remain possible across the Southern Plains and Southern Delta. A few strong to severe storms are also possible across southeast Texas and eastern Louisiana.

Fed’s January 2024 Beige Book on Ag Economy

The Federal Reserve Board released its January 2024 Beige Book, a summary of its commentary on the current economic conditions in each Federal Reserve District. In the sixth district around Atlanta, Low cattle supply led to higher cattle prices, but consumers are substituting less expensive proteins and preventing full pass-through of prices. In the eighth district near St. Louis, ongoing drought continues to affect livestock and crop conditions. The ninth district of Minneapolis shows conditions unchanged, while most say farm incomes dropped substantially from last year. In Kansas City’s tenth district, profits narrowed during the past year as commodity prices moderated, particularly in areas hit by drought. Drought conditions continue to recede in the eleventh district of Dallas as soil moisture improves and crop production prospects look better in 2024. Conditions in San Francisco’s 12th district were solid in agriculture and resource-related sectors, with robust yields and inventories of various products.

GAO Pushes FDA on Food Safety

Although the U.S. food supply is one of the safest, foodborne illness is a public health concern. The Food and Drug Administration has a new rule requiring detailed records for certain foods as they move through the supply chain, which can help trace the source of a potential outbreak. FDA has taken steps like issuing guidance to help implement the rule. The Government Accountability Office has recommended that the FDA finalize its plans for implementing the rule to help industry and regulators prepare for compliance by January 30, 2026. In November 2022, the FDA promulgated a final rule on food traceability to help identify the source of outbreaks of foodborne illness. When developing the new rule, FDA established a list of certain foods for which enhanced recordkeeping is required. Entities handling an item on the list must maintain records, including a traceability plan for specific points in the supply chain.

Stabenow Releases Letter on the Farm Bill

Senate Ag Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow wrote a letter to her colleagues on their work to write a new farm bill. She outlined several proposals for strengthening the farm safety net in the new bill. While calling the 2018 Farm Bill a “strong foundation” for American farmers, she also says, “The 2024 Farm Bill is an opportunity for the Committee to make improvements, modernize dated elements, and address emerging challenges American farmers face.” Her vision for modernizing the safety net centers around principles like programs being targeted to active farmers, providing farmers choice and flexibility, and sending them timely assistance. She also says officials need to expand the reach of programs to help more farmers and address the emerging risks farmers face. “Crop insurance is a key tool to meaningfully advance each of those goals,” she said in the letter. “Farmers want better affordability and a more straightforward and streamlined process.”

USDA Launches Pilot Beef-Grading Program

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack announced a pilot program to allow more cattle producers and meat processors to access better markets through USDA’s official beef quality grading and certification. The Remote Grading Pilot for Beef, developed by the AMS, matches simple technology with robust data management and program oversight to allow a USDA grader to assess beef carcass characteristics and assign the official quality grade from a remote location, reducing costs and location as barriers to participation in the voluntary grading service. “On average, a beef carcass that grades as USDA Prime is valued at hundreds of dollars more than an ungraded one,” Vilsack says. “But the costs for this voluntary USDA service often prevent smaller scale processors and the farmers and ranchers they serve from using this valuable marketing tool.” Consumers and buyers and sellers of beef rely on USDA quality grades, including Prime, Choice, and Select, to indicate quality.

NCGA Unhappy with ITC Decision on Tariffs

The National Corn Growers Association is deeply disappointed in a decision from the International Trade Commission. The ITC upheld an earlier opinion finding material injury to U.S. fertilizer companies during a time of rising on-farm fertilizer prices that went on to reach record highs. The decision came after the U.S. Court of International Trade asked the Commerce Department and ITC to reconsider decisions they issued on the matter. “The idea that major fertilizer conglomerates were materially injured even as they were posting substantially higher profits during the time in question sounds dubious to me,” says NCGA President Harold Wolle. “The decision ignores the request from the Court of International Trade and the negative impacts these tariffs continue to have on America’s farmers, who are facing higher prices for the fertilizers critical to the success of their crops. We will continue to make a vigorous case for eliminating or lowering these tariffs.”

Groups Press for Miscellaneous Tariff Bill

Crop Life America and several other groups joined together on Capitol Hill to urge immediate action by lawmakers to renew the Miscellaneous Tariff Bill. “A passage of the Miscellaneous Tariff Bill that’s fully retroactive would help farmers’ access to the essential pesticide products they need to grow food for the U.S. and the World,” CropLife America said in a statement. “A renewed MTB would mean lower input prices resulting in decreased price pressures for U.S. farmers, ranchers, and consumers.” The American Chemistry Council was another of the groups pushing for renewal of the MTB. “The bill would support advanced manufacturing in the United States and domestic chemical production used to make products in key agriculture, food production, and industrial sectors, including information technology, renewable energy, and automotive goods,” said the ACC. The previous MTB expired in December 2020, and since then, businesses continued to pay $1.3 million per day in tariffs.

Top 5 Things to Watch - Weather Warms, Winter Meetings Start

1. Farm Bureau reports: DTN Senior Ag Policy Editor Chris Clayton is covering the American Farm Bureau Federation annual meeting in Salt Lake City, Utah, Jan 19-24. Farm Bill legislation, trade and other issues will all be part of speeches and sessions there.

2. Weather warmup: While this weekend includes a last burst of really cold air into South Dakota, Iowa and Nebraska, a warmup is on tap for the week ahead. That will bring increasing precipitation across eastern Texas and up into the Midwest in several waves. We could see heavy snow in the Great Lakes region, and some ice potential in the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi valleys, depending on temperatures.

3. Market happenings: Soybean markets are watching for the start of Brazilian harvest as well as the ongoing reports of China's potential economic slowdown. DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman will speak at the Sioux Falls, South Dakota farm show from Wednesday through Friday. It's a great place to hear the latest market thoughts and ask your marketing questions.

4. Stewart returns: DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart returns Monday; watch for her market commentary throughout the week.

5. Economic reports to watch: Monday we'll report grain inspections at 10 a.m. Then, Tuesday sees U.S. bioenergy statistics at 2 p.m. On Wednesday, we'll see the S & P PMI numbers released at 8:45 a.m. A busy Thursday starts with a number of reports released at 7:30 a.m., including 4th quarter GDP, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, U.S. trade balance, U.S. retail and wholesale inventories, and U.S. export sales. Friday we'll watch for personal Income, personal spending and the PCE Index at 7:30 a.m. At 9 a.m. the pending home sales index will be released.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will keep catch up on South American weather forecasts and notice any news over the weekend, especially concerning Middle East tensions and Red Sea traffic. The U.S. index of leading indicators for December is set for 9 a.m., followed by USDA's weekly export inspections at 10 a.m.

Weather

A large system will bring widespread precipitation from Texas into Illinois Monday, with pockets of heavy freezing rain likely in parts of Arkansas and Missouri. Up to 0.10-0.25 inch of ice is possible in northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Meanwhile, parts of eastern Texas could see 1-3 inches of rain.

Farm Lending Activity Remains Muted

New non-real estate farm lending activity at commercial banks continued to decline in the fourth quarter of 2023. The volume of new non-real estate farm loans in the final months of 2023 was about 15 percent less than the previous year. The number of new loans did increase from the previous year, but the average loan sizes were considerably lower. The sharp climb in farm loan interest rates abated during the quarter as average rates increased modestly for some types of loans and dropped slightly for others. Despite a reduction in new loans compared to late 2022, 2023’s outstanding farm debt balances reported by commercial banks grew steadily through the third quarter of 2023. Elevated production costs, higher interest expenses, and lower commodity prices increased the financing needs of many producers. The Kansas City Fed says strong liquidity in recent years likely supplemented the borrowing needs of some operations throughout 2023.

Taylor to Lead Trade Mission to India

Alexis Taylor, USDA’s Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, will lead an agribusiness trade mission to India from April 22-25. USDA is reminding interested parties that applications are open for exporters who want to take part. “There is no larger untapped market in the world for U.S. agriculture than India and its 1.4 billion consumers,” Taylor says. “We achieved notable tariff reductions this year on chickpeas, lentils, almonds, walnuts, apples, and frozen turkey, among other products that will open market opportunities for American farmers in the world’s most populous country.” She also says FAS is excited to support food and agricultural exporters as the two countries have entered a new chapter in trade relations. While in India, U.S. agribusinesses will participate in business-to-business meetings with potential importers from India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. “Total U.S. ag exports to India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka exceeded $2.5 billion in 2022,” she adds.

NCBA Keeps Pushing for Death Tax Relief

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association strongly supports the Death Tax Repeal Act introduced in both the House and Senate. NCBA says it’s unconscionable for cattle producers to face a tax that forces them to sell all or part of their family’s farm or ranch due to the death of a family member. “With the cost of farmland rising rapidly, the Death Tax presents a significant threat to the future of family farms and ranches,” says NCBA President Todd Wilkinson of South Dakota. “Most cattle producers have significant assets but are cash-poor and operate on thin margins, leaving them with few options when they are saddled with an unexpected tax liability.” The NCBA says some producers get forced to sell off assets, including land, livestock, farm equipment, and even their home. Current death tax relief expires at the end of 2025, and it’s vital that Congress acts soon to provide permanent relief.

Illinois Tops U.S. Soybean Production in 2023

The National Agricultural Statistics Service estimates Illinois soybean farmers raised a U.S.-leading 648.9 million bushels on 10.3 million acres. Compared to the previous year, total acreage and yield estimates were both four percent lower in Illinois. Average soybean yields remained the same in 2023 at 63 bushels an acre. “I’d like to congratulate my fellow farmers on another successful growing season,” says Ron Kindred, Illinois Soybean Association Chair. “Illinois farmers made smart management decisions to maintain average soybean yields statewide.” Kindred also says part of the success can be attributed to the efforts of the Illinois Soybean Association. “For 60 years and counting, ISA has invested in production research, education, advocacy, and market development efforts to afford all Illinois soybean farmers success even in the face of many challenges,” he says. As the Illinois Soybean Association turns 60, Kindred says communicating the checkoff’s benefits is key to staying ahead of challenges.

Record Support for AM Radio in the House

The radio industry hit an important milestone as the number of lawmakers in the House who back efforts to make AM radio mandatory in vehicles has reached 200. The list has grown even as the proposed AM Radio in Every Vehicle Act has yet to make much legislative progress in the House. Insider Radio says the growth in support could be critical if bill sponsors try to attach the measure to a piece of must-pass legislation like a spending bill. National Association of Broadcasters spokesman Alex Siciliano credits grassroots support for helping broadcasters to gain so many cosponsors of the Act during the past year. “AM radio is continuing to reach a vast audience of 82 million listeners each month, and they’ve been very engaged in telling Congress how important this medium is to them in light of the threat by vehicle makers to remove AM from vehicles,” he says.

Growth Energy Outlines 2024 Policy Priorities

Growth Energy, the nation’s largest biofuels trade association, published its 2024 federal policy priorities. “These are policy decisions that will shape the next era of growth in plant-based energy and climate solutions,” says Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor. “We hope these priorities serve as a roadmap for elected officials seeking to support biomanufacturing facilities at the heart of America’s bioeconomy.” The policy priorities focus on ensuring drivers can use more lower-carbon, lower-cost bioethanol at the pump at home and abroad. The group wants to restore permanent, unrestricted access to E15 year-round nationwide. Growth Energy also wants to use bioethanol to expeditiously advance the national transportation carbon reduction goals. They want to make sure the Department of Energy incorporates the best science and makes limited changes to the GREET model as it relates to the 408 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Tax Credit. They want to ensure changes are finished by March 1, 2024.

Friday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report will be out at 7:30 a.m. CST Friday. At 9 a.m., the University of Michigan's report of consumer sentiment in January and a report on U.S. existing home sales in December will both be released. USDA's cattle on-feed report for January 1 will be out at 2 p.m., the same time as USDA's Livestock, Dairy and Poultry outlook for January.

Weather

A clipper system continues to bring a band of snow across the eastern Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic on Friday and is pulling the last of an arctic blast from the polar vortex behind it from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico yet again that will last for a couple of days.

Lawmakers Seek 2024 DMC Enrollment Period

A group of lawmakers is asking the Department of Agriculture to swiftly open the 2024 Dairy Margin Coverage program sign-up period. The program is the nation's risk management tool for dairy producers that helps farmers manage changes between milk prices and feed costs. The lawmakers, including Iowa Republican Representative Randy Feenstra, write, “Now, as we are nearly halfway through January, there continues to be no indication given to producers of when they will be eligible to select their DMC coverage level for 2024.” The delay, the lawmakers say, coupled with the unpredictable nature of the industry is “concerning for the farm economy and the constituents we represent.” Throughout 2023, dairy producers faced numerous challenges – high input costs, continued inflation, and unpredictable weather conditions – meaning that programs like DMC, which provide certainty during unstable economic conditions, are vital to producers and rural communities, the letter says. The lawmakers urged USDA to quickly open the sign-up period to provide dairy producers certainty in 2024.

USDA: Large Family Farms Account for Bulk of Commodity Production

Large-scale family farms accounted for a majority of the value of commodity production in 2022, according to a new report from USDA’s Economic Research Service. Specifically, these farms accounted for 51 percent of cash grains and soybeans, 56 percent of hog production, 65 percent of cotton along with 65 percent of specialty crops, and 76 percent of dairy products. On the other hand, small family farms accounted for three percent of the value of production for dairy, four percent for cotton, seven percent for specialty crops, and 26 percent for beef, but they produced the majority of hay—53 percent—and 45 percent of poultry and eggs. The value of production by nonfamily farms ranged from five percent for both hay production and poultry and eggs production to 19 percent for specialty crop production. Large scale family farms are those with a Gross Cash Farm Income of more than $1 million.

Global Soybean Stocks Raised on Higher Production

The marketing year 2023/24 global soybean production forecast has increased by 0.1 million metric tons this month to 399.0 million metric tons. USDA’s Monthly Oil Crops Outlook shows higher production in Argentina, the United States, Paraguay, Russia, China, and Bolivia more than offset lower production in Brazil. Global soybean trade for 2023/24 is forecasted to be up from last month and stands at 170.9 million metric tons due to higher exports from Paraguay and Russia. The global soybean crush is nearly unchanged this month, as higher crush in Argentina, India, Egypt, and Thailand offsets the reduced crush volume in Brazil. Global soybean ending stocks are forecast at 114.6 million metric tons, up 0.4 million metric tons from last month's forecast and 12.7 million metric tons above last year's level. In the latest Crop Production report by USDA, U.S. soybean production was raised by 35.2 million bushels on higher yields. The harvested acreage is reduced this month 0.4 million acres on lower harvested area.

United Soybean Board Releases 2024 Sustainability Overview

The United Soybean Board Wednesday released the 2023 Soy Sustainability Overview. The report outlines the partnerships formed through checkoff investment to drive innovation in sustainability. The advances include efforts to enhance sustainability in production agriculture and ongoing development of new soy-based products that provide cleaner alternatives for everything from rubbers and plastics to adhesives and lubricants. Iowa farmer April Hemmes, chair of the Demand Action Team at USB, says, "U.S. Soy farmers are proud of the important and growing role they play in maximizing sustainability not only in farming but throughout industries and around the globe." The report covers sustainable food practices, renewable energy such as biodiesel, and other sustainability practices. The report also provides updates on checkoff-funded research projects that hold significant promise in advancing sustainability, both on the farm and through groundbreaking new uses for soy. For more information and to view the report, visit unitedsoybean.org.

Lawmakers Introduce Bill to Promote Domestic Hardwood Products

Representatives Tom Tiffany and Congresswoman Ann Kuster introduced bipartisan legislation this week to support domestic hardwood products. The Hardwood Products Access and Development Program Act, permits the Agriculture Secretary to authorize grants that bolster domestic industry efforts and research that directly supports end-user information on the benefits of hardwood products. The grants will allow various nonprofits, universities, and other eligible applicants to research the low carbon footprint and sustainability of domestically produced hardwood products to educate the public on the benefits of these products. Representative Tiffany, a Wisconsin Republican, says, "This important legislation will inform consumers on the sustainability of domestically produced hardwood products." Representative Kuster, a New Hampshire Democrat adds, "American-grown hardwood offers an incredible opportunity to create more sustainable, durable products in countless industries right here at home." The U.S. hardwood industry is a multi-billion-dollar industry supporting over 1.8 million jobs, mostly in rural, underserved areas.

USDA Appoints New Members to Minority Farmers Advisory Committee

The Department of Agriculture Wednesday announced the appointment of 15 new members to the Advisory Committee on Minority Farmers. The newly appointed members serve terms of up to two years. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says, "This committee is part of USDA's commitment to ensure that all farmers have equal access to USDA programs and services, especially minority farmers and producers in underserved communities." Committee members represent socially disadvantaged farmers, nonprofit organizations, civil rights organizations or professions, and higher education institutions. Congress established the Advisory Committee for Minority Farmers in the Food Conservation and Energy Act of 2008 to ensure that underserved farmers have equal access to USDA programs. Committee members advise the Secretary of Agriculture on the administration of the Outreach and Assistance for Socially Disadvantaged Farmers and Ranchers Competitive Grant Program. They also make recommendations to the Secretary on how to increase minority participation in USDA programs. Find more information, including a list of new members, on the committee website.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Weekly U.S. jobless claims, U.S. housing starts for December and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor are due out at 7:30 a.m. CST Thursday. The Energy Department's report on natural gas storage will be out at 9:30 a.m., followed by the weekly energy inventory report at 10 a.m. Traders continue to monitor South American weather and news from the Middle East.

Weather

A clipper system is moving through South Dakota early this morning, bringing a band of light to moderate snow through the Northern Plains. The system will continue southeast through Iowa Thursday and into the eastern Midwest overnight into Friday. An arctic blast of cold will follow behind the clipper for a couple of days, though temperatures out ahead of it are closer to normal in a reprieve from yesterday.

Pork Producers Concerned About FDA Antibiotics Proposal

The National Pork Producers Council submitted comments critical of the Food and Drug Administration’s draft guidance on the duration of use of certain antibiotics in food animals. NPPC says the proposal would “deny the ability for a veterinarian to prescribe antimicrobials appropriately, burden pharmaceutical companies, and may jeopardize antibiotic access.” For 30 years, the U.S. pork industry has implemented measures, including FDA directives, for responsible antibiotic use. In the comments, NPPC emphasized that veterinarians are responsible for deciding what antimicrobials to prescribe, when products should be used and administered, which animals to medicate, and for how long. The organization says the draft guidance interferes with the veterinarian’s decision-making process by mandating a duration of use. The comments urge the FDA to work closely with drug manufacturers to provide a simple process to include duration of use to continue the availability of products and allow veterinarians to maintain their role in the decision-making process.

Collaboration Will Expand Rural Connectivity

John Deere announced it entered into an agreement with SpaceX to provide cutting-edge satellite communications service to farmers. Utilizing the Starlink network will allow farmers facing rural connectivity issues to fully leverage precision agriculture technologies. The partnership will enable John Deere customers to be more productive, profitable, and sustainable in their operations as they continue to provide food, fuel, and fiber to their communities and a growing global population. “The value of connectivity to farmers is broader than any single task or action,” says Aaron Wetzel, vice president of production and precision ag systems at John Deere. “Connectivity unlocks vast opportunities that were previously limited or unavailable.” The new solution will connect both new and existing machines through satellite internet service and satellite terminals. This will fully enable technologies such as autonomy, real-time data sharing, remote diagnostics, enhanced self-repair solutions, and machine-to-machine communication to help farmers work more efficiently.

Rural Residents Among Country’s Unhappiest People

Rural residents join Republicans, renters, women, and single people in feeling they’re in a funk financially. That’s according to the Axios Vibe survey by The Harris Poll. Inflation has dipped in recent months, but the subject remains top of mind for many Americans. Six in 10 survey respondents say they’re now “triggered” by trips to the grocery store. Grocery purchases are the top way Americans say they feel inflation every day, followed by gas prices. Thirty-seven percent of Americans rate their financial situation as poor. That rises to 57 percent for renters, 47 percent for singles, and 46 percent for rural residents. Forty-one percent of Americans say their finances are worse today than they’d have predicted if they’d been asked, pre-COVID, to imagine the future. That percentage rises to 53 percent for rural residents and 51 percent for renters. The poll finds many Americans, including rural residents, calling the economy weak.

Actor Joining Clean Fuels Alliance to Promote Bioheat

Donnie Wahlberg of the TV show “Bluebloods” has joined Clean Fuels Alliance America in a campaign to raise awareness about Bioheat Fuel, an environmentally responsible and sustainable energy solution  It’s an eco-friendly and sustainable home heating solution derived from plants, including soybeans. Wahlberg, a Boston native, is excited about promoting a cleaner future, especially in the Northeast. Bioheat fuel is a renewable energy source that blends traditional heating oil with biodiesel, significantly reducing carbon emissions and environmental impact. Wahlberg’s partnership with Clean Fuels is driven by a shared commitment to promoting sustainable energy solutions and fostering environmental responsibility. “Donnie’s involvement adds a powerful voice to our campaign, bringing attention to the positive impact of Bioheat fuel on a local and global scale,” says Clean Fuels CEO Donnell Rehagen. “We believe that together, we can inspire positive change and encourage individuals to make the switch to cleaner, more sustainable heating options.”

Promoting Agroforestry on Farms

Propagate and the Rodale Institute announced a new partnership to promote agroforestry. The collaboration’s goal is to increase the adoption of agroforestry and tree-cropping systems in North America. They say planting new agroforestry systems on farms is a win for farmers and the planet. Agroforestry systems introduce additional streams of income for farmers and boost the resilience of their operations. Increasing the number of farms across the country is also crucial to the health of the food system and climate stability. Regenerative practices like agroforestry promote overall soil health, store carbon in soils, accumulate woody biomass, improve water quality, promote biodiversity, and support pollinators. “Agroforestry is a critical tool for farmers and ranchers to improve both agricultural land and the environment,” says Rodale Institute CEO Jeff Tkach (catch). “Rodale and Propagate will further develop innovative research and expand producers’ access to actionable data that enables their adoption of regenerative practices.”

Nominations Open for 4R Program

The Fertilizer Institute says nominations are open for the 2024 4R Advocates. These distinguished farmers and retailers are committed to implementing advanced fertilizer best management practices that incorporate the principles of 4R Nutrient Stewardship while demonstrating remarkable economic and environmental benefits. “Embracing the principles of 4R Nutrient Stewardship isn’t just a commitment for the fertilizer industry, but it’s a meaningful step towards helping countless American farmers enhance both their profitability and the health of the land,” says TFI President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch. “We take pride in the dedication of our industry’s retailers, who work hand-in-hand with farmers to put these practices into action in the field.” The 4R Advocates actively engage in TFI’s outreach efforts to promote responsible fertilizer management practices throughout the year. They do so by hosting farm field days, participating in conference panels, and sharing their insights and experiences with fellow farmers. More information is at tfi.org.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Traders remain attentive to South American weather forecasts and events in the Middle East. U.S. retail sales for December are due out at 7:30 a.m. CST, followed by the Federal Reserve's report on U.S. industrial production at 8:15 a.m. The Fed's Beige Book will be released at 1 p.m. Due to Monday's holiday, the Energy Department's weekly inventory report will be out Thursday.

Weather

While the polar vortex remains in control over much of North America, there is some moderation from the drastically cold temperatures of the last few days across the north. Southern areas dove deeper into the cold with below-freezing temperatures through the Gulf of Mexico. A system in the Pacific Northwest continues to drop significant snow there that will bleed into the northwestern Plains as well, especially for Thursday.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Back from a three-day weekend, traders will catch up on the latest weather forecasts for South America and news of attacks from the Red Sea. USDA's weekly report of export inspections is set for 10 a.m. CST. The National Oilseeds Processors Association will estimate members' soybean crush in December later Tuesday morning.

Weather

The polar vortex is firmly planted over the middle of North America on Tuesday and while the harshest temperatures have passed on from the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains, it remains very cold across much of the country between the Rockies and Appalachians. A storm system is moving east and out of the country while the cold, arctic air settles.

Final 2023 Crop Report Shows Jump in Corn Production

USDA released its final 2023 Crop Production Report showing a rise in corn production and a drop in soybean production. 2023 corn production hit a record 15.3 billion bushels, 12 percent above 2022. The average yield was a record-high 177.3 bushels per acre, 3.9 bushels above 2022. Soybean production in 2023 reached 4.16 billion bushels, two percent lower than in 2022. The average yield was 50.6 bushels per acre, one bushel above 2022, but the production drop was due to four percent fewer harvested acres than the previous year. Meanwhile, the December WASDE Report calls for greater corn production, larger domestic use, and higher ending stocks. The season-average price is down five cents at $4.80 per bushel. In soybeans, supplies rose 31 million bushels over November’s prediction. Projected soybean ending stocks totaled 280 million bushels, up 35 million. The season-average soybean price is $12.75 a bushel, 15 cents below November.  

USDA Reopening Signup for Continuous CRP

The USDA will begin accepting applications for the Continuous Conservation Reserve Program signup on January 12. The Farm Service Agency encourages agricultural producers and landowners interested in conservation opportunities for their land in exchange for yearly rental payments to consider the enrollment options available through Continuous CRP. It also includes the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program offered by FSA partners. Additionally, producers participating in CRP can apply to re-enroll beginning January 12 if their contracts expire this year. “Continuous CRP is one of the best conservation tools we can provide producers and landowners,” says FSA Administrator Zach Ducheneaux. “Whether a producer wants to focus on water quality benefits or work with one of our partners to address natural resource concerns in their area, the program offers many options to help meet those resource conservation goals.” To submit an offer, producers and landowners should contact their local FSA office by July 31.

USDA Releases Grain Stocks, Winter Wheat Seeding Reports

USDA released its December 2023 Grain Stocks report that showed higher corn and wheat stocks in all positions, while soybean stocks dropped from 2022. Corn in all positions totaled 12.2 billion bushels, 13 percent above December 2022. Soybeans were estimated at three billion bushels, one percent lower than a year ago. All wheat on December 1, 2023, totaled 1.41 billion bushels, eight percent above 2022. The winter wheat area planted for 2024 harvest is estimated at 34.4 million acres, six percent below 2023 but three percent higher than in 2022. Kansas and Texas, the two states with the largest acreages, are expected to be down seven and eight percent, respectively. Michigan and Utah were expected to plant a record-low number of acres. Hard Red Winter Wheat seeded area is expected to be 24 million acres, five percent below 2023. The largest drop in planted acres is in Kansas and Texas.

Radio Hand-In-Hand With the Future

The Consumer Electronics show in Las Vegas, Nevada, had plenty to offer in the way of future technology, including self-driving cars and Artificial Intelligence. Radio Ink says broadcasters should be encouraged that radio continues to show up at a high-tech event like CES. Radio’s largest presence was in the car, just like in everyday life. One company showed off the DTS AutoStage technology in a BMW. It offered a visual way to enjoy AM-FM and in-car games like Jeopardy. As electric vehicles continue to grow, companies are looking for ways to help drivers and passengers pass the time while their EVs charge. The same company showed off adding HD radio to Harley Davidson motorcycles. John Deere showed off its future farmer-focused technology, which included radio still playing a big part of the in-cab entertainment system. That became more important when looking at agriculture’s push to preserve the AM band in rural America.

Farmland Market is “Resilient”

The Farmers National Company says the farmland market seems to be moving into the new year maintaining the value increases it’s built during the last three years. That stability is in place despite increasing pressure from declining commodity markets, rising interest rates, and inflation. The sharp increase in land values last year which was driven primarily by strong commodity markets has slowed, but the value is holding steady. Buyer demand remains strong for good quality cropland in the Midwest, while the supply of available land remains limited. “These factors further play into the dynamics of the supply-demand scenario and remain a large factor in supporting current values in early 2024,” says Paul Schadegg, senior vice president of real estate operations for Farmers National. Local farmers/operators continue to be the principal buyers in almost 80 percent of Farmland’s sales transactions. “Available cash plays a role in buyer’s aggressiveness when bidding on land.”

Growth Energy Applauds Court Ruling

The U.S. Court of Appeals in the 11th Circuit dismissed a case involving the Hunt Refining Company and the Environmental Protection Agency. The court ruled that the Small Refinery Exemption challenge brought by Hunt under the Renewable Fuels Standard couldn’t be heard by the court and should be heard instead by the Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor says the 11th Circuit Court validated what’s already known. “EPA’s denials of these SRE petitions were ‘nationally applicable’ and have nationwide effect, and challenges to the denials have only been brought to the D.C. Circuit Court,” Skor says. “Every time refiners seek to take RFS gallons out of the marketplace, that potentially impacts the entire renewable fuels market, no matter where those gallons get blended.” She also says the 11th Circuit rightly removed itself from the challenges and avoided contributing to a potential patchwork of inconsistent standards.

November Pork Export Value Highest in Over Two Years

Fueled by record performances in Mexico, Central America, and Colombia, November pork exports reached their highest value since November 2021. USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation says November pork exports reached 258,600 metric tons, up five percent from last year and the highest in six months. Export value rose two percent to $737.4 million, the highest since May 2021 and seventh-highest on record. From January through November, pork exports reached 2.64 million metric tons, eight percent higher than the previous year. “The momentum for U.S. pork is remarkable and very broad-based,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. Beef exports totaled just over 99,000 metric tons during November, 14 percent below the prior year and the second lowest in 2023. Value fell seven percent to $786 million. For the first 11 months of the year, beef exports were 13 percent lower than the record pace of 2022.

USDA Kicking Off the National Ag Classification Survey

As the agency already prepares for the 2027 Census of Agriculture, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will conduct the National Agricultural Classification Survey on January 24. The survey, an important step in determining who should receive a 2027 Census of Agriculture questionnaire, will go to approximately 250,000 recipients to ask if they conduct agricultural activity. The results of the survey will ensure that every U.S. producer, no matter how large or small their operation, has a voice and is counted in the highly anticipated and influential agricultural census data. “This survey helps illustrate the breadth of American agriculture and enables USDA to get a complete count of all farmers and ranchers,” says NASS Administrator Hubert Hamer. “Every response matters. Even if a respondent doesn’t think the survey applies to their farm, we’d ask that they respond to the few screening questions.” NASS encourages recipients to respond securely online at agcounts.usda.gov.

USDA Investing in Biofuels

The USDA is awarding grants worth $19 million to American businesses to increase the availability of biofuels in 22 states and give Americans cleaner and more affordable options at gas station pumps. Blending ethanol into gasoline has helped reduce fuel costs by approximately 25 percent, contributing to falling gas prices across the country. Gas prices are now under $2.99 in more than half of U.S. states and save the average driver more than $100 per month relative to peak prices. The agency is making the awards through the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program. “By increasing the supply of biofuels made here in the U.S., we are strengthening our energy independence, lowering costs for American families, creating new streams of income for agricultural producers, and bringing good-paying jobs to people in rural communities,” says Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack. The investments will help business owners install and upgrade biofuels infrastructure, including pumps.

Bipartisan Bill Would Support Organic Dairy Farmers

Congresswoman Chellie Pingree (D-ME), a longtime organic farmer and House Ag Committee member, and Marc Molinaro (R-NY) introduced legislation to support organic dairy farmers. The Organic Dairy Data Collection Act would enhance data collection at USDA to better understand the costs associated with producing organic milk. “International trade challenges, adverse weather, and skyrocketing organic feed costs have created a dire economic situation for organic dairy farmers across the U.S.,” Pingree says. “These unique challenges require tailored solutions.” The bipartisan bill will help USDA better understand and address the challenges organic dairy farmers face. The bill directs USDA to collect and publish cost-of-production data for organic milk. It directs NASS to gather and report monthly data about the amounts that organic dairy farmers are being paid for organic milk. It also orders USDA, NASS, and the Economic Research Service to publish reports on the cost of production data by state and region.

Farm Bureau Awards Distinguished Service Honors

Frank Lucas (R-OK) and former Iowa Farm Bureau President Craig Hill received the American Farm Bureau’s 2023 Distinguished Service Award and Farm Bureau Founders Award, respectively. The awards are the highest honors presented by AFBF. Lucas and Hill will be recognized during the 2024 American Farm Bureau Convention January 17-24 in Salt Lake City, Utah. AFB established the Distinguished Service Award in 1928 to honor individuals who have devoted their careers to serving the national interest in American agriculture. First presented in January 2017, the AFBF Founder’s Award for exemplary leadership, service, or contributions to Farm Bureau is presented in recognition of outstanding achievements and work in the interest of Farm Bureau. Lucas is a fifth-generation Oklahoma farmer and Congressman who’s been a defender of agriculture for over 40 years. Hill was the longest-serving member of the Iowa Farm Bureau Board of Directors before retiring as president in December 2021.  

Combines See Solid Sales Gains Late in 2023

Combine harvester sales closed out the year ahead of 2022 levels, while almost all tractor segments saw declines in both the U.S. and Canada. The latest data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers says total U.S. farm tractor sales fell 5.1 percent in December compared to 2022, while year-to-date sales came in 8.7 percent lower than the previous year. However, 100+ horsepower tractors grew 5.2 percent for the year and 3.6 percent in December. Combine harvesters finished 2023 with sales up 1.7 percent last month. The sub-40 horsepower segment led the yearly losses, falling 11 percent in 2023 on the heels of a 5.8 percent drop in December. For Canada, four-wheel drive farm tractor sales jumped 65 percent in December and finished the year up 44 percent overall. Overall unit tractor sales finished 2023 down 14 percent for December and 10.7 percent overall. AEM is still confident about long-term sales growth.

Friday Watch List

Markets

The U.S. Labor Department's producer price index for December will be out at 7:30 a.m. Friday, one day after consumer prices were said to be up 3.4% from a year ago. USDA's WASDE, December 1 Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings reports are set for release at 11 a.m. CST. U.S. grain and livestock futures close at their normal times Friday and are closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Grain futures will trade next at 7 p.m. CST on Monday.

Weather

The second big storm of the week is moving into the Midwest Friday morning and will quickly deepen. It has already started to produce heavy snow from eastern Nebraska to Lake Michigan early morning and will expand from there. The deepening low-pressure system will create strong winds and blizzard conditions in the snow. To the south, heavy rain and thunderstorms have developed in the Mississippi Valley and will move east throughout the day. The rain will help to ease drought, but thunderstorms may be severe with strong winds the primary threat. Very cold, arctic air continues to spread through the Plains behind the system.

Agri-Pulse Poll Shows Farmers Support Donald Trump

A new poll from Agri-Pulse and Stratovation Group finds farmers and ranchers support electing Donald Trump to another term as president. The effort shows 39 percent of surveyed farmers say they would most likely vote for Trump, while 19 percent indicated they would vote for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Just eight percent of surveyed farmers say they would vote for President Joe Biden. Of the 605 farmers that participated in the survey, 61 percent identified as Republicans, with 45 percent of that group favoring Trump. Ten percent of the survey participants identified as Democrats with 62 percent of those farmers supporting Biden. Another 18 percent of farmers identified as independents. Stratovation Group conducted the study between December 14-22, 20243, including farmers and ranchers from the Midwest, South and California. The first presidential primary vote comes Monday as Republicans hold the Iowa Caucus.

U.S. Wheat Imports Reach 6-year High

U.S. wheat imports are forecasted to be at their highest in six years for the 2023/24 marketing year, according to USDA's Economic Research Service. Consecutive years of drought in key U.S. growing regions of hard red winter wheat have tapered U.S. output, elevating domestic prices. Millers have sought less expensive sources, including competitively priced wheat from the European Union. U.S. imports of hard red winter wheat, mostly from the EU, for 2023/24 are at 25 million bushels, a record high, and up from five million bushels from 2022/23. This trade flow is atypical as U.S. wheat imports are normally driven by hard red spring and durum wheat from neighboring Canada. In 2017/18, imports from Canada of both classes of wheat were elevated because of drought-related supply issues in the United States. While U.S. imports of hard red winter wheat are elevated in 2023/24, imports of soft red winter and white wheat are relatively close to normal levels.

Without More Funding, FCC Winding Down Broadband Program

The Federal Communications Commission plans to start winding down the Affordable Connectivity Program as funding for the effort dries up. The FCC has emphasized the need for additional funding for program, and the White House recently made an additional funding request to Congress for $6 billion to keep the program going. With less than four months before the projected program end date and without any immediate additional funding, this week, the Commission expects to begin taking steps to start winding down the program to give households, providers, and other stakeholders sufficient time to prepare. FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel says in a letter to lawmakers, “If Congress does not provide additional funding for the ACP in the near future, millions of households will lose the ACP benefit that they use to afford internet service.” While Congress initially appropriated $14.2 billion for the ACP, more funding is needed to keep the program in place. The FCC expects funding to last through April 2024, running out completely in May.

Losses Projected for Lower Rio Grande Valley Due to Water Shortages

A recent report by Texas A&M estimates a potential 2024 total loss in economic output of over $993.2 million due to the absence of irrigation water for crop production in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. The report examines the total economic impact on the region's agricultural production, which consists of row crops (and specialty crops absent irrigation water. In terms of employment, it would result in an estimated loss of over 8,000 jobs. The lack of irrigation water is in large part due to Mexico's failure to deliver water to the U.S. per the 1944 Water Treaty. According to the report, the current Mexican water deficit is the second-largest deficit in the last three decades. The Treaty obligates Mexico to deliver a minimum of 350,000 acre-feet annually, as an average, on a five-year cycle. Now in year four of the current five-year cycle, Mexico owes over 736,000 acre-feet of water. Because of the lack of water, the Texas International Produce Association reports vegetable and fruit plantings are down 25 – 100 percent, depending on the corp.

CHS Reports First Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings

CHS Inc., the nation's leading agribusiness cooperative, released results for its first quarter this week, which ended November 30, 2023. The company reported quarterly net income of $522.9 million compared to $782.6 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2023. Earnings were strong across all segments, although down from record first quarter earnings in fiscal year 2023. Revenues were $11.4 billion, compared to $12.8 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2023. In the Ag segment, continued robust meal and oil demand drove strong earnings in our oilseed processing business that were offset by weak U.S. export demand for grains and oilseeds. CHS President and CEO Jay Debertin says, "We continue to see the benefits of our diversified agriculture and energy portfolio, our strategic footprint, and investments in our supply chain." CHS reported pretax earnings of $169.7 million for agriculture, representing a $117.6 million decrease compared to the prior year period.

Nearly 21 Million Children Expected to Receive New Grocery Benefit This Summer

The Department of Agriculture this week announced that 35 states, all five U.S. territories, and four tribes plan to be the first to launch the new, permanent summer grocery benefits program for children. Known as Summer Electronic Benefit Transfer, the program in 2024 will serve close to 21 million children, providing nearly $2.5 billion in grocery benefits. This is around 70 percent of the total population of children eligible for Summer EBT. Through the program, states will provide families with $120 per eligible child for the summer to buy food at grocery stores, farmers markets or other authorized retailers – similar to how SNAP benefits are used. Participating tribes will provide a benefit of the same amount that can be used to buy food at WIC-authorized retailers. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says, “Together we’re making progress in closing the summer hunger gap and ensuring children are nourished and healthy year-round.” USDA expects additional states and tribes will provide Summer EBT in 2025.