NCBA Reacts to Temporary Relief from CTA

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association says a recent decision putting the Corporate Transparency Act reporting requirements on hold is “confusing.” Kent Bacus, NCBA Executive Director of Government Affairs, says the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court reversed the ruling it had issued before Christmas and has instead decided to uphold the injunction blocking the Corporate Transparency Act from taking effect. “This means U.S. cattle producers have yet another reprieve from filing beneficial ownership information with the U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, or FinCen,” Bacus says. “These court rulings have gone back and forth and continue to add to the overall confusion.” He also says NCBA urges all cattle producers to consult with their attorney and tax professional for the latest information in case of more changes. “NCBA is continuing to urge Congress to pass legislation that will permanently protect cattle farmers and ranchers from this burdensome mandate,” Bacus added.

December Rural Mainstreet Index Drops from November Bump

After advancing above growth neutral in November for the first time since 2023, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index sank below the 50.0 reading in December. That’s according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a ten-state region dependent on agriculture or energy. The December index plummeted to 39.6 from November’s 50.2. It was the 11th time this year that the overall reading was below growth neutral. The index range is 0 to 100, with 50.0 representing growth neutral. “In retrospect, there appears to have been a significant November upturn resulting from the surprising Trump election results,” says Dr. Ernie Goss (GAHS) of Creighton University. “The positive bump disappeared in December.” Roughly one in four bankers reported their local economy was either in a recession or would enter a downturn in 2025. The remaining three out of the four bankers expect slow growth but no recession next year.

Rapid Growth for Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel in 2024

The U.S. is on pace to surpass five billion gallons of biodiesel and renewable diesel consumption for the first time. That caps a 2024 that saw increased efforts from states to drive adoption, updates to technical standards, growth in soybean crush capacity, and growing public support for clean transportation fuel. Clean Fuels Alliance America CEO Donnell Rehagen says a strong 2024 has set the industry up for further growth in air, marine, rail, and heavy-duty transportation use. “Consumers and corporations are demanding more clean fuel, and they are increasingly turning to biodiesel and renewable diesel for it,” Rehagen said. “Our industry has become a central force in the global effort to curb greenhouse gas emissions.” One factor in the improvement is the number of states that implemented clean fuel policies. Updated fuel specs will create opportunities in the new year. Biodiesel and renewable diesel will continue making farms stronger in 2025.

Dairy Checkoff Highlights 2024 Work

Dairy checkoff initiatives of 2024 successfully increased dairy access in schools, expanded market share for U.S. dairy products domestically and internationally and supported the industry’s commitment to sustainability. Dairy Management Inc. President and CEO Barbara O’Brien says the checkoff is working and achieving a lot in building its next chapter. She outlined the “Now, Next, and Future” checkoff strategies at the joint annual meeting. “All of the successes were made possible by the dedication and hard work of everyone across the checkoff federation,” O’Brien said. “This was a strong year of results as we continue to work with and through others to catalyze action in energizing our trust- and sales-building priorities.” The Dairy Checkoff launched the Dairy Conservation Navigator, a resource hub designed to give farm advisors, stakeholders, and conservation professionals science-based information on sustainable practices and technologies. DMI also unveiled its InnovateWithDairy.com tool to help spur industry innovation ideas.

First Ever Ammonia Carbon Intensity Verification Program

The Fertilizer Institute is launching the Verified Ammonia Carbon Intensity program, a voluntary certification of the carbon footprint of ammonia production at a specific facility. It’s the first program of its kind and is designed to provide ammonia consumers seeking to reduce emissions across their supply chains with an independent and certifiable carbon intensity score. “As agriculture looks to develop more sustainable and resilient supply chains, the Verified Ammonia Carbon Intensity program provides ammonia consumers with certifiable transparency that will allow them to quantify the positive impact using low-carbon ammonia has on their greenhouse gas emissions footprint,” says TFI President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch. VACI is initiating a 60-day public consultation period for ammonia consumers and stakeholders to provide feedback on the program and its methodology via a survey. VCI intends to redefine the program based on the comments it receives. Ammonia is one of the world’s most widely produced chemicals. 

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

E.I.A. Monthly Biofuels Capacity and Feedstocks at 11 a.m. CST

NASS Agricultural Prices at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

A storm system that brought some moderate precipitation to parts of the Plains on Monday continues through the Midwest on Tuesday. Higher temperatures there are leading to mostly rain, though some snow will mix in on the northern edge, especially Tuesday night. Cooler air is filling in behind the system, which will lead to lake-effect snow for the rest of the week.

Trump Threatens to Take Back Panama Canal Control

Reports say President-elect Donald Trump threatened to reassert U.S. control over the Panama Canal. Farmdoc says he accused Panama of charging excessive rates to use the passage, which drew a sharp rebuke from Panama’s president. Speaking to supporters in Arizona, Trump also said he wouldn’t let the Canal fall into the wrong hands, warning of potential Chinese influence on the passage. Reaction from South American experts says Trump’s stance is “baffling” as Panama’s president is considered to be a pro-business conservative who’s made a lot of overtures to show he wants a special relationship with the U.S. “The Panama Canal is a critical choke point for U.S. agriculture and the overall U.S. economy,” says Dennis Rudat of Farm News Media. “Seventy-two percent of all cargo transiting the Panama Canal is either coming or going to the U.S., including a substantial portion of U.S. agricultural exports,” says Farm Bureau’s Betty Resnick.

Hurricane Milton Hits Almost Six Million Ag Acres

A report from the University of Florida says Hurricane Milton, a Category 3 hurricane, when it made landfall on October 9, hit more than 5.7 million acres of agricultural land. Over 68 percent of those acres were grazing land. Across all commodity groups, approximately 62 percent of impacted acreage experienced low-intensity weather conditions. Another 38 percent of the acreage experienced moderate-intensity weather conditions, and less than one percent experienced high-intensity weather conditions. Preliminary estimates of production losses for Florida’s agricultural producers from Milton are between $190.4 million and $642.7 million. The commodity groups hit hardest in terms of production losses were vegetables, melons, and potatoes, followed by greenhouse-nursery producers and animals and animal products. Damage to infrastructure included homes, livestock buildings, watering points, perennial plantings, conservation structures, honeybee boxes, fences, farm equipment, and irrigation systems. There was a lot of damage to stored agricultural inputs like fertilizer, feed, and animal medicines.

Port Labor Dispute Affecting Red Meat Exports

U.S. agriculture is bracing for a potential work stoppage at East and Gulf Coast ports that could greatly disrupt American red meat exports. Contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance broke down in mid-November over issues related to automation and have shown little progress over the past month. The two sides reached a tentative agreement on wages in early October and temporarily extended the existing labor agreement. However, the contract extension will expire on January 15. The U.S. Meat Export Federation says the uncertainty is already impacting red meat exports. USMEF President Dan Halstrom says ocean carriers are announcing surcharges related to a potential strike, and exporters are forced to look, where possible, to divert shipments to other ports. Approximately 45 percent of waterborne U.S. pork exports ship out of the East and Gulf Coast ports, and on the beef side, that total is 30 percent.

NCGA Disappointed in No Year-Round E15

Following Congressional votes on year-end legislation, National Corn Growers Association President Ken Hartmann, Jr., says corn growers were disappointed about no year-round access to E15. “We thought it would be in the end-of-year legislation package,” he said. “This no-cost provision would have provided a market-driven solution to farmers experiencing low corn prices.” The organization is calling on legislators to address this matter as quickly as possible at the start of the new Congress and fix the issue once and for all. “The National Corn Growers Association is appreciative of House and Senate Agriculture Committee leadership and our other champions who worked hard to extend the farm bill and provide much-needed economic and disaster assistance in farm country,” said Hartmann, Jr., a farmer from Illinois. “This assistance will help growers reeling from natural disasters like hurricanes and wildfires and multiple years of low crop prices paired with higher input costs.”

November Egg Production Down Four Percent

U.S. egg production totaled 8.92 billion during November 2024, down four percent from last year. Production included 7.68 billion table eggs and 1.24 billion hatching eggs, of which 1.15 billion were broiler-type and 90.3 million were egg-type. The average number of layers during November totaled 376 million, down three percent from last year. November egg production per 100 layers was 2,374 eggs, down one percent from November 2023. Total layers in the U.S. on December 1, 2024, was 375 million, down three percent from last year. The 375 million layers consisted of 311 million layers producing table or market-type eggs, 60.7 million layers producing broiler-type hatching eggs, and 3.78 million layers producing egg-type hatching eggs. The rate of lay per day on December 1, 2024, averaged 79 eggs per 100 layers, down one percent from December 1, 2023. Egg-type chicks hatched during November 2024 totaled 48.8 million, up one percent from November 2023.

Angus Foundation is Funding the Future

Thanks to a dedicated group of 16 Angus breeders, the Fund the Future Campaign garnered $36,400 for the Angus Fund in fiscal year 2024. The funds help support the Foundation’s mission and events like the Beef Leaders Institute and Young Cattlemen’s Conference. The Angus Foundation is excited about the new year and the opportunities it brings. In the new year, an anonymous donor pledged to match the first $30,000 raised, effectively doubling the impact of every dollar donated. “I’m thrilled to watch the campaign expand and see more breeders getting involved in 2025,” says Jaclyn Boester, Angus Foundation executive director. “The simplicity of participation has sparked excitement, with breeders eager to contribute and knowing their donations are making an impact on the Angus breed.” The Fund the Future Campaign offers breeders a unique opportunity to give back through annual production sales, consignment sales, bull sales, or even private treaty opportunities.

Monday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CST

CFTC's holiday-delayed Commitments of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CST

Weather

A small system is moving through the Western Corn Belt for Monday, bringing a mix of rain and snow and areas of high winds. Colder air is building over the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains and will follow the system east for Tuesday.

Beneficial Ownership Deadline Extended

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association wants to remind all producers that the Corporate Transparency Act filing requirements are back in effect. A recent court of appeals decision reversed an injunction that previously had stopped the mandate. “The Corporate Transparency Act requires millions of family farmers and ranchers to file complex paperwork and disclose beneficial ownership information with the federal government under penalty of severe fines and jail time,” says NCBA Executive Director of Government Affairs Kent Bacus. In light of the overturned injunction, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network announced it will delay enforcement of the CTA until January 13, 2025. NCBA and other groups say this delay doesn’t allow enough time for millions of small businesses to comply with the law, and it’s deeply concerning that FinCEN (FIN-sen) will proceed with enforcing the law when it has failed to give adequate notice and instructions to law-abiding family business owners.

U.S. Hog Inventory Up One Percent

As of December 1, 2024, there were 75.8 million hogs and pigs on U.S. farms, up one percent from December 2023 but down slightly from September 1, 2024. That’s according to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report published last week by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Other key findings include that of the 75.8 million hogs and pigs, 69.8 million were market hogs, while six million were kept for breeding. Between September and November 2024, 35.2 million pigs were weaned on U.S. farms, up two percent from the same period last year. From September through November, U.S. hog and pig producers weaned an average of 11.92 pigs per litter. America’s hog producers intend to have 2.93 million sows farrow between December 2024 and February 2025 and 2.95 million sows farrow between March and May 2025. Iowa’s hog producers accounted for the largest inventory among the states, at 24.6 million head.

Soy Groups Receive Additional RAP Funding

The American Soybean Association, ASA’s World Initiative for Soy in Human Health Program, and the U.S. Soybean Export Council received a second round of funding from the Regional Agricultural Promotion Program. The RAPP 2 Award from the U.S. Ag Department’s Foreign Agricultural Service will be invested in international market diversification and growth of U.S. soybean exports to help meet increasing protein demand and support nutrition security in global markets. “The American Soybean Association and our allied groups are exceptionally pleased to be included in the second round of RAPP grants, funding that will continue to open doors for U.S. agriculture exports in emerging markets,” says Caleb Ragland, ASA President and Kentucky farmer. “Soy is proud to be our country’s number one export but that doesn’t mean we can sit idle: We pride ourselves in finding innovative, collaborative ways to tap and expand markets around the world for our high-protein, high-quality soybeans.”

Meat Supplies in Cold Storage Drop in November

The USDA says red meat in cold storage declined in November. Meat supplies in freezers on November 30 fell three percent month over month and five percent year over year to 7.41 billion pounds. In a report this week, USDA said that beef in storage totaled 440.5 million pounds, a two percent increase from October but down four percent from the same month in 2023. Boneless cuts in freezers rose three percent from the previous month to 398.2 million pounds. Pork stockpiles were reported at 391.1 million pounds, down eight percent on a monthly basis and six percent annually. About 69.3 million pounds of ham were in storage at the end of November, down 40 percent from the previous month but up 21 percent year over year. Bellies jumped 39 percent month to month to 22.5 million pounds, but that was down 53 percent from the same time last year.

How Economic Assistance for Farmers Will Be Distributed

A Continuing Resolution keeping the government fully funded through March 14, 2025, also included economic aid for farmers experiencing one of the biggest income drops in many years. In fact, over the past two years, USDA projects that farmers will experience the steepest two-year decline in net farm income in history. Meanwhile, due to an ineffective safety net, government help for producers is slated to be at the lowest level since 1982. “The “Economic Loss Assistance Program” set aside $10 billion in direct payments for farmers. Farm Journal says while payment rates aren’t final yet, early estimates are out for various commodities. The corn payment for producers is estimated to be $43.80 per acre, while soybean payments are estimated at $30.61 per acre. Wheat farmers will receive $31.80 an acre, cotton growers are estimated to receive $84.70 an acre, and rice will receive $71.37. Twenty-one commodities are eligible for assistance.

Poultry Processors to Pay Millions in Lawsuit

Nine of the nation’s largest poultry processors have agreed to pay settlements in a years-long antitrust lawsuit alleging that they conspired to depress workers’ wages at their facilities. The plaintiffs in the class action filed a memorandum on December 23 supporting a motion for preliminary approval of the nine new settlements by the defendants in the case. The suit was filed in 2019 and alleges that chicken companies and two consulting firms conspired to fix and depress hourly wages and benefits dating back to January 1, 2009. The plaintiffs also seek the appointment of a settlement counsel and a stay of the proceedings against the defendants that are settling. The 18 chicken producers named in the lawsuit, along with several of their subsidiaries, produce the majority of chicken sold in the U.S. Feedstuffs says the motion seeks approval of nine settlements, including Tyson Foods and Keystone Foods paying a combined $115 million.

Friday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CST

EIA Petroleum Status report including ethanol production at 12 p.m. CST

Weather

A disturbance will lift through the Midwest on Friday and provide widespread, scattered rain showers as temperatures remain warm enough for any snow to be isolated in far northern areas. Some areas across the western Midwest could see 0.5-1.0 inch of rain. High Temperatures: 20s/30s Canadian Prairies; 30s/40s Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest; 30s/50s Midwest; 40s/50s Central Plains; 50s/60s Southeast; 50s/70s Southern Plains.

Court Reinstates Beneficial Ownership Requirement

On Monday, the 5^th U.S. Circuit Appeals Court lifted a federal district court’s earlier order, which had previously halted the January 1, 2025 deadline for small businesses to file their beneficial ownership information with the Treasury Department. The Corporate Transparency Act passed by Congress in 2021 requires the paperwork to be filed by the Treasury’s Finanicial Crimes Enforcement Network. The CTA requires that owners and part-owners of an estimated 32.6 million small businesses, including 230,000 farms, must register their personal information with FinCEN. The American Farm Bureau estimates that this appeals court ruling now puts tens of thousands of farms back on the legal deadline to register their businesses with the federal government. Of the 230,000 farms that are likely required to file, only 11 percent had done so as of October. Farmers are encouraged to contact an accountant or an attorney if they are unsure about whether they are required to file the information.  

Thursday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CST

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange Weekly Crop Update at 12 p.m. CST

Weather

Widespread, scattered rain showers and a few severe thunderstorms will extend through the southeast Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday as a disturbance passes through the region. Rain showers will eventually spread into the Western Midwest later tonight as temperatures remain warm enough for mainly rain.

U.S. Prevails in USMCA Dispute with Mexico

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai says the U.S. has prevailed in its dispute under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement challenging Mexican biotechnology measures on GE corn imports. The USMCA panel agreed with the U.S. on all seven legal claims, finding that Mexico’s measures banning imports of GMO corn from the U.S. were not based on sound science and undermined the market access that Mexico agreed to provide in the trade agreement. “Mexico’s measures ran counter to decades’ worth of evidence demonstrating the safety of agricultural biotechnology, underpinned by science and risk-based regulatory review systems,” says Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack. Under USMCA rules, Mexico has 45 days from the date of the final report (December 20th) to comply with the Panel’s findings. “The panel’s conclusion backs up our long-held position that agricultural trade policies must be grounded in science and must not disrupt trade in agricultural products,” says USTR Chief Agricultural Negotiator Doug McKalip.

Groups React to USMCA Panel Decision

In a major win for the nation’s corn growers, a USMCA dispute panel ruled that Mexico violated its commitments under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The violation took place in early 2023 when Mexico issued a decree that banned genetically modified corn imports. “This is an incredible development for the nation’s corn growers and rural communities,” says Kenneth Hartman, Jr., president of the National Corn Growers Association. “The outcome is a direct result of advocacy efforts of corn grower leaders from across the country.” The U.S. Grains Council also hailed the good news. “Mexico has always been a powerful partner to U.S. corn growers and exporters, so when the country tried banning GM imports, it would have severely affected our industry,” says Ryan LeGrand, USGC President and CEO. “The Council worked to help ensure the dispute result was fair, and we look forward to continuing our work with our top U.S. grains-in-all-forms customer.”

Bird Flu Driving Egg Costs Higher

Shoppers were buying more eggs to bake Christmas treats ahead of the holiday season at the same time U.S. wholesale egg prices were up 150 percent from last year. Reuters says the average retail price of a dozen eggs surpassed $3.60 in November, $2.50 higher than the prices in January. September’s average price was even higher at $3.80 per dozen. Retailers didn’t want to push shoppers away during the busy holiday season, so they’ve been slow to raise their prices to pass on the higher costs. However, those price hikes could come in early 2025. The main factor pushing egg prices higher is bird flu’s impact on the American laying flock. The virus has wiped out 123 million chickens, turkeys, and other poultry in 49 states since the outbreak began in 2022. Nationwide, the laying hen flock in October was three percent lower than in 2023 at approximately 315 million birds.

Conservation Proponents Disappointed with Congressional CR

Congress passed a year-end bill that includes a continuing resolution extending current levels of federal funding until March, including an extension of the 2018 Farm Bill. However, the National Association of Conservation Districts was disappointed the package didn’t include Inflation Reduction Act conservation funding. “The failure to include conservation funding in an end-of-year bill forgoes an incredible opportunity,” says NACD President Kim LaFleur. “Unfortunately, it reflects Congress’ increasing inability to negotiate and pass commonsense solutions.” The American Farmland Trust was also let down by a lack of conservation funding. “Conservation programs are popular, oversubscribed, and key to helping producers remain profitable and build resilience to extreme weather,” AFT says in a release. “By transferring those dollars to build the farm bill conservation baseline, Congress could have ensured additional conservation funding to meet the high demand. Thousands of farmers won’t be able to enhance profit margins while protecting soil and water quality.“

U.S. Cattle on Feed Down Slightly

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more totaled 12 million head on December 1, 2024. That inventory level was slightly below December 1, 2023. Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.8 million head, four percent below the same time in 2023. Net placements totaled 1.74 million head. During November, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 495,000 ahead, 600-699 pounds were 420,000 head, 700-799 pounds totaled 375,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 276,000 head, 900-999 pounds totaled 145,000 head, and 1,000 pounds or greater reached 85,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.73 million head, one percent below November 2023. Other disappearances totaled 55,000 ahead during November, which was two percent higher than in 2023.

Farm Progress Holds Successful 2024 Organic Grower Summit

The 2024 Organic Grower Summit in Monterey, California, again proved to be the premier gathering for the Organic farming community. The event welcomed hundreds of participants from across the U.S. organic industry. “This year’s enthusiastic participation underscores the growing interest in sustainable and innovative farming practices,” says Matt Jungmann, Farm Progress national events director. “The Organic Grower Summit provides a platform for collaboration and learning for stakeholders who are shaping the future of organic farming.” The seminar’s educational sessions covered critical topics like soil health, ag technology, and market resiliency. A major focus was the increasing importance of regenerative farming practices. “It’s inspiring to see the organic community come together to share knowledge and celebrate progress,” says Jungmann. “We’re grateful to our sponsors, partners, and exhibitors, and we’re already looking forward to next year.” The 2025 Organic Summit will return to Monterey, California, December 3-4. For updates, go to OrganicGrowerSummit.com.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

No major economic or USDA reports scheduled due to Christmas Eve. Market will trade a shortened session, closing at 12:05 p.m. CST.

Weather

A system will provide scattered showers and thunderstorms to the eastern half of the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Texas and locally heavy rainfall over two inches may develop across parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. High Temperatures: 20s/30s Canadian Prairies; 20s/40s Midwest; 30s/40s Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains; 40s/50s Central Plains; 50s/60s Southeast; 50s/70s Southern Plains.

USDA Assistance for Distressed Loans Borrowers

The USDA announced the final $300 million in assistance to distressed direct and guaranteed farm loan borrowers under the Inflation Reduction Act. Over the past two years, USDA acted swiftly to assist distressed borrowers in retaining their land and continuing their agricultural operations. The assistance will provide $300 million in help to more than 12,800 distressed direct and guaranteed Farm Loan Program borrowers. “USDA has always been committed to standing by our nation’s farmers and ranchers, especially during their most challenging times,” says Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack. “This final round of payments will help almost 13,000 producers stay on their land and continue farming.” The assistance includes $168.5 million for payments of any outstanding delinquencies on qualifying direct loans as of November 30, 2024, for direct borrowers one or more days delinquent as of that date. Distressed borrowers may get assistance in multiple categories if they have multiple qualifying loans.

China Makes Big U.S. Soybean Purchase

China’s Sinograin (SY-no-grain) bought almost 500,000 metric tons of soybeans from the U.S. for shipping in March or April. Two U.S. traders familiar with the purchase say Sinograin paid more for American supplies for its state reserves rather than buying cheaper beans from Brazil. China is the world’s number one soybean buyer and an important market for both the U.S. and Brazil. The industry is closely watching sales and the flow of trade to China ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. There is significant industry concern that another round of trade tariffs between the two nations would erode the value of U.S. soybeans. Soybean prices hit lows not seen in four years because of trade tensions, high stockpiles in the U.S., and a possible record harvest in Brazil. Reuters says Sinograin, China’s state-run grains trader and reserves manager, recently bought 750,000 tons for shipping from January through March.

Mexico is U.S. Dairy’s Most Reliable Customer

America’s dairy exports to Mexico are approaching record levels as consumer demand for dairy products continues to outpace the country’s production. Mexico is the leading market for U.S. dairy products, comprising over one-fourth of international sales. Dairy product consumption in Mexico has increased by 50 pounds per capita since 2011. A new CoBank report says the upside potential for increasing U.S. dairy sales to Mexico remains strong, and broader export market opportunities are positioning the U.S. dairy industry for long-term growth. “Dairy product sales to Mexico have the potential for continued growth as more consumers enter the middle class and seek higher-quality proteins and fats,” says Corey Geiger, lead dairy economist for CoBank. “Mexico faces an annual dairy product deficit ranging between 25-30 percent, and the U.S. supplies over 80 percent of the shortfall.” The EU and New Zealand are the top two dairy exporters, but production stalled in those regions.

Six More States in National Milk Testing Strategy

The Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service announced another round of states coming on board with the National Milk Testing Strategy that launched on December 6. It requires unpasteurized milk samples to be collected and shared with USDA for testing. This represents another step toward conducting complete nationwide surveillance under the NMTS and continues building on the measures taken by USDA and its federal and state partners since the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cattle was first detected in the U.S. in March 2024. The seven states that will be included in the second round of the testing strategy are Indiana, Maryland, Montana, New York, Ohio, Vermont, and Washington. While the new federal order is effective immediately and has been in effect since it was announced on December 6, USDA will continue working with other states to bring them on board as quickly as possible while also accommodating state-specific needs.

NCGA Submits Comments on 45Z Tax Credit

National Corn Growers responded to a request for information from Congress and sent comments outlining the importance of the 45Z tax credit. If enacted, the credit would provide the nation’s corn growers with access to the sustainable aviation market. The comments come as growers try to evaluate the importance of the tax credit, called 45Z, which is part of the Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022. Corn grower leaders have said they want in on the new market. “NCGA believes farmers should be considered in the implementation of this tax credit because they contribute much to the lifecycle of biofuels,” the comments said. The letter also noted the value the tax credit provides to domestic energy security. “NCGA believes corn and soybean feedstocks are best suited for the 45Z tax credit to support domestic American-grown solutions.” NCGA has long advocated for the tax credit and pushed for realistic guidelines.

Red Meat Production Down Three Percent in November

USDA says red meat production fell year over year in November as cattle and hog slaughter both declined. Commercial meat output totaled 4.56 billion pounds in November, down three percent from November 2023. Beef production dropped three percent on an annual basis to 2.22 billion pounds. Cattle slaughter fell six percent to 2.57 million head last month. USDA said the average weight was up 38 pounds to 1,425 pounds. Pork output was 2.33 billion pounds in November, down two percent year over year. Hog slaughter totaled 10.8 million head, down two percent from the same time in 2023. Average live hog weight was unchanged at 289 pounds. Lamb and mutton production was down seven percent annually to 10.4 million pounds. Sheep slaughter fell nine percent to 173,600 head. In the first 11 months of the year, red meat production rose to 50.4 billion pounds, up one percent from last year.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Consumer Confidence Report

USDA Weekly Export Inspections

USDA Hogs & Pigs Report

Weather

A small system will work through the Midwest on Monday, providing light snow showers and pockets of freezing rain or a mix of rain and snow. Later today into tonight, a system is expected to develop across Oklahoma and Texas, lending to scattered rain showers developing in eastern parts of these states. High Temperatures: 20s/30s Canadian Prairies; 20s/40s Northern Plains and Midwest; 30s/40s Pacific Northwest; 40s/50s Central Plains and Southeast; 50s/70s Southern Plains.

Iowa Soybean Partners with State for Water Quality Efforts

A public-private partnership between the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship (IDALS), the Iowa Soybean Association, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service will invest over $2.3 million to install nutrient-reducing practices in priority Iowa watersheds. The majority of the funding will come from IDALS for outreach and to farmers and landowners who will then work with conservation staff to implement practices like saturated buffers, oxbows, and perennial cover. The $1.4 million put up by IDALS will also support design and engineering costs. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig (nag) announced the project at the Iowa Soybean Association’s Winter Policy Conference. This project, and others like it, prove collaborating is key to making meaningful progress.

New Pest Alert! Heads up for the Two-Spot Cotton Leafhopper

A notorious pest of cotton, okra, eggplant, and others has become established in the Caribbean basin. It has now been detected in several counties in Florida, from Miami-Dade County in the south to Jackson County in the north. The two-spot cotton leafhopper was first detected in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in spring 2023. At the time, the only other Western Hemisphere record for this species was a single male labeled “Cuba” deposited in the U.S. National Museum. There are no other prior or subsequent reported finds in Cuba. Two-spot cotton leafhoppers feed on the lower surface of leaves, extracting the contents of the cells. This causes yellowing, reddening, then browning of leaves, with wilting and curling of the leaves. Adult two-spot cotton leafhoppers are tiny. They superficially resemble other leafhopper species such as the potato leafhopper. They can be distinguished by a dark spot on each wing and often by two dark spots on the head.

New Genetic Test Will Help Safeguard Quinoa from Top Foe

Quinoa (keen-wah) is a grain-like seed offers a flavorful and is nutrition-packed. But in order for this versatile seed to get from farm field to table, quinoa growers must be vigilant for signs of downy mildew, a disease that can decimate the crop if left unchecked. To help growers, a team of researchers led by Agricultural Research Service (ARS) plant pathologist Anna Testen devised a fast new test to genetically detect the pathogen in both quinoa seed and leaf tissue.  The advance opens the door to countering downy mildew on several fronts—with benefits to U.S. growers hoping to expand the crop and to consumers. Quantitative PCR is much more sensitive, meaning it can detect smaller amounts of DNA, than standard PCR, so there are fewer false negatives.

Louisiana Patient Has First Severe Illness Caused by Bird Flu in U.S.

Health officials announced Wednesday the patient had been in contact with sick and dead birds in backyard flocks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said. Previous illnesses in the U.S. had been mild and the vast majority had been among farmworkers exposed to sick poultry or dairy cows. The CDC confirmed the Louisiana infection on Friday, but did not announce it until Wednesday. It’s also the first U.S. human case linked to exposure to a backyard flock. Previous illnesses in the U.S. had been mild and the vast majority had been among farmworkers exposed to sick poultry or dairy cows. This year, more than 60 bird flu infections have been reported, with over half of them in California. 

California Declares State of Emergency for Bird Flu

California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Wednesday issued a state of emergency in response to a worsening bird flu outbreak that’s affected hundreds of dairy herds. The action will ensure government agencies have the resources and flexibility they need around staffing, contracting and other rules to support the state’s response to the outbreak, according to the emergency proclamation. Statewide, bird flu has spread to 641 dairies in nine counties since late August, when the first detections in cattle emerged. It has infected 34 people in California to date. Newsom said a shift from regional containment to statewide monitoring was necessary, citing livestock infections at four Southern California dairies on Dec. 12. The state has already taken steps to address the bird flu virus, including enhanced testing of raw milk and livestock. To date, no person-to-person spread of the virus has been detected in the U.S.

South Dakota’s Callie Mueller Named Miss Rodeo America 2025

Mueller was crowned December 8th at the National Finals Rodeo in Las Vegas. She also received the Appearance Award. The Landstrom’s Black Hills Gold crown is accompanied by over $20,000 in education scholarships and prizes. This year’s national pageant featured 29 contestants from across the country. The competition included a horsemanship contest, a written test on equine science and rodeo knowledge, extensive interviews, extemporaneous speaking, and a fashion show.  As Miss Rodeo America 2025, Callie will serve as the official representative of the Professional Rodeo Cowboys Association. During her reign, she will travel over 40,000 miles and appear at nearly 100 rodeo performances, as well as attend various schools, civic groups, and special events to educate the public about rodeo, its sponsors and its opportunities. According to the Miss Rodeo America website, prior to Mueller, the most recent Miss Rodeo South Dakota to also earn the national title was Jordan Tierney in 2020-21.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Personal Consumption Expenditure data at 7:30 a.m. CST

Cattle on Feed at 2 p.m. CST

CFTC Commitment of Traders at 2:30 p.m. CST

Weather

A weakening clipper system is moving through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast for Friday with scattered snow showers. The system is still pulling in some colder air that will spread through the eastern half of the country into the weekend. Another small clipper is moving through the Canadian Prairies and into the Northern Plains with streaks of light snow as well.

Year-Round E15 Access in Continuing Resolution

The Renewable Fuels Association thanked congressional leaders for including a provision allowing the year-round sale of lower-cost, cleaner-burning E15 in the stop-gap funding bill text released by the House of Representatives. “We are thrilled to see the long-awaited fix allowing year-round E15 in this package,” says RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “This language would finally remove an outdated regulatory barrier and we’re hopeful that the continuing resolution will move swiftly through Congress and to the president’s desk for a signature.” He also says allowing year-round E15 sales would benefit farmers, fuel retailers, and consumers wanting lower-cost, cleaner fuel options at the pump. RFA thanked the House leadership, the Energy Committee leadership, and the dozens of House members on both sides of the aisle who advocated for the inclusion of this long-overdue provision. At an average price of $2.62 per gallon nationwide, it’s selling at an 8.7 percent discount to E10.

Congress Leaving Town with No Prop 12 Fix

The National Pork Producers Council is deeply disappointed in Congress’ decision to relinquish its responsibility to produce a five-year farm bill and an overdue federal solution to California’s Proposition 12. The organization says pork producers don’t have the luxury of waiting for Congress to pass a new five-year bill. “After years of losing money and forcing family farms out of business, we needed the certainty to make decisions,” says Lori Stevermer, NPPC President and a Minnesota pork producer. “America’s pork producers have continually raised our voices and have ultimately been ignored by Congress through its failure to provide a solution to the problems created by Prop 12.” Instead, Congressional leadership announced its intention to pass a “clean” one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill, denying new programs or funding. NPPC and other agricultural stakeholders will continue to push Congress to provide a federal solution to Prop 12 and other priorities.

Study Shows Fertilizer’s Economic Impact

The Fertilizer Institute released the 2024 Fertilizer Industry Economic Impact Study, highlighting the importance and economic contributions of the U.S. fertilizer industry on national, state, and local economies. The study also underscores the global nature of fertilizer markets and the importance of open markets and fair competition in providing farmers access to vital nutrients exactly when and where they are needed. “Fertilizer is a critical component of the global food supply chain,” says TFI president and CEO Corey Rosenbusch. “The data reveals the industry’s significant economic impact and provides an opportunity to educate people about fertilizer’s complex global network and its reliance on open markets and fair competition to meet the needs of America’s farmers.” Trade is a critical component of the fertilizer industry and promotes the global interconnectivity of fertilizer markets. For example, the U.S. imports 98 percent of its potash from Canada, and Florida ships phosphate back to Canada.

NSP Announces 2024 Sorghum Yield Contest Winners

National Sorghum Producers announced the winners of the 2024 National Sorghum Yield Contest. That included the Bin Buster awardee Kenny Rathjen of Texas, who took the top spot in the contest at 240.01 bushels per acre. “On behalf of NSP, I’m so proud to congratulate our 2024 Yield Contest winners,” says NSP Board of Directors Chair Amy France. “These outstanding results highlight the resilience and innovation of U.S. sorghum farmers.” She also says from Texas to New Jersey, the achievements of those growers continue to inspire and set a high standard for the industry, and they look forward to honoring this year’s winners at the 2025 Commodity Classic. Noteworthy yields are spotlighted across three distinct divisions spanning from the eastern to western regions in the U.S. “These yields are a reminder of the vital role sorghum plays in a sustainable agriculture landscape,” France added. The winner’s list is at sorghumgrowers.com/yieldcontest.

Wisconsin Reports Human H5N1 Infection

The Wisconsin Department of Health Services has detected the first presumptive positive human case of H5N1 infection. The human case follows an infected flock of commercial poultry identified in Barron County, Wisconsin, where this person was exposed to the infected flock. The case was identified through testing at the Wisconsin State Lab of Hygiene and is pending confirmation at the CDC. Wisconsin health officials are monitoring farm workers who may have been exposed to the virus and have provided them with information to protect their health. The risk to the general public in Wisconsin remains low. People who work directly with infected birds or animals are at higher risk. The H5N1 virus has continued to circulate in wild and domestic birds in North America since December 2021. The virus is highly contagious and often fatal to domestic poultry. The disease varies in severity depending on the strain and the species infected.

USDA Invests in Domestic Fertilizer Production

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack says his agency is making domestic fertilizer production investments in nine states to increase competition, lower fertilizer costs for American farmers, and lower food costs for U.S. consumers. “When we invest in domestic supply chains, we drive down input costs and increase options for farmers,” Vilsack says. “Through today’s investments, USDA is bringing jobs back to the United States, lowering costs for families, and supporting farmer income.” USDA is investing more than $116 million through the Fertilizer Production Expansion Program to help eight facilities expand innovative fertilizer production in California, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin. FPEP is funded by the Commodity Credit Corporation and provides funding to independent business owners to help them modernize equipment, adopt new technologies, and build new production plants. Through the program, USDA has invested $517 million in 76 fertilizer production facilities to expand domestic fertilizer access.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

FAS Export Sales report at 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. Jobless claims at 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. GDP second revision at 7:3 a.m. CST

Existing Home Sales at 9 a.m. CST

Livestock Slaughter at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

A clipper system continues to work across the north for Thursday, continuing snow in the Northern Plains and spreading it through the northern Midwest. Strong winds will push cold air through the country behind this clipper, but only for a couple of days as the year will end on a warm note.

Last Minute Breakthrough on Farm Assistance

House Speaker Mike Johnson announced a last-minute breakthrough on help for farmers. A must-pass bill to avert a government shutdown will now include farm aid, giving farmers something to celebrate the Christmas season. A high-pressure lobbying effort by multiple farm groups and Johnson himself has paid off. “What you’ll see reflected in this final package is $10 billion to start,” Johnson says. “In addition, USDA moved some things around and has added $2 billion for specialty crops they announced in late November, all of which means help is coming.” Johnson hopes with this announcement that a great sigh of relief is coming from farm country. “I’ve talked to several leaders in the ag community who say they’re greatly relieved,” Johnson added. While it’s not the $15 to $20 billion the American Farm Bureau and many others were asking for, Johnson says the new aid comes not a moment too soon.

NAFB Letter Supports AM Radio in the Continuing Resolution

The National Association of Farm Broadcasting’s Board of Directors sent a letter to Congressional leadership on the AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act being included in the Omnibus Continuing Resolution. The CR will be introduced before the end of the Lame Duck Session. The letter points out that for over 80 years, the NAFB’s broadcasters have worked hard to serve rural and urban residents with timely and accurate information in daily programming. “Failure to approve this critical AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act will allow automakers to eliminate access to critical information to the people we serve,” the letter says. “Rural and urban residents should not be forced to subscribe to an unreliable data stream for urgent information.” Radio access is especially important for America’s producers and rural audiences in times of emergency. For people working out in the open and miles from home, response time is critical.

Craig Voted the New Ranking Democrat on House Ag

House Democrats voted to make Minnesota Representative Angie Craig the new Ranking Member on the Republican-controlled House Ag Committee. The Hill points out that Democrats chose a younger member of the House over long-time veteran legislator Jim Costa of California, who was also vying for the seat. Costa, the second-ranking member of the Ag Committee, has been on Capitol Hill for twenty years. She replaces David Scott of Georgia, the previous ranking member. The vote for Craig followed a decision from the Democrat’s Steering and Policy Committee to recommend Craig for the seat over Costa and Scott, who dropped out of the race on Monday after the Steering vote. Scott wanted to stay in the position, but he was considered to be having health challenges and not able to effectively operate as the top Democratic member of the Ag Committee moving forward. Craig won her fourth Congressional term in November.

Ten Percent Fewer U.S. Farms From 2012-2022

The 2022 Census of Agriculture showed the U.S. had 1,900,487 farms, down from over 2,100,000 in 2012. That represented a 10 percent drop, or 208,816 farms, in ten years. The Census of Ag is conducted every five years, and the last two five-year periods saw the number of farms decrease in all four farm size categories from 2012-2017. The smallest three categories fell from 2017-2022. Farms with annual revenue of less than $10,000 dropped the largest number within the decade, declining by over 151,000 farms, or 13 percent. On the other hand, large farms with $1 million or more in revenue increased by 32 percent, from 81,600 in 2012 to almost 108,000 in 2022. The number of farms with $10,000 to $249,999 in revenue dropped by 66,600, a nine-percent drop, from 2012 to 2022. Farms with revenues of $250,000 to $999,999 declined by more than 16,800, or a ten percent decrease.

Export Inspections of Corn and Wheat Improve

USDA’s inspections of corn and wheat for export rose week to week while soybean assessments declined during the week ending on December 12. Corn inspections for offshore delivery rose to 1.13 million metric tons, up from 1.06 million the week prior, and the 960,000 tons assessed during the same week in 2023. Wheat examinations increased to 298,000 tons from 247,000 tons the previous week and the 284,000 tons inspected at the same point last year. Soybean inspections fell to 1.68 million tons, down from the 1.74 million assessed a week earlier. That was higher than the 1.43 million assessed during the same week last year. Since the marketing year began on September 1, the government has inspected 13.3 million metric tons of corn, 25.2 million tons of soybeans, and, since June 1, 11.5 million tons of wheat. All three commodities are ahead of their yearly pace from last year.

More Raw California Milk Recalled

California state ag officials have recalled raw milk from a Central Valley dairy after tests found the bird flu virus in a sample of milk from a bulk tank. State officials warned residents not to consume milk from Valley Milk Simply Bottled because it could lead to infection with this rare, emerging flu virus. No illnesses have been reported so far. It was the second raw milk recall in California in two weeks. Raw Farm LLC of Fresno voluntarily recalled all of its raw milk and cream products on December 3 due to possible bird flu contamination. Valley Milk is 100 miles away from Raw Farm LLC. The USDA says the H5N1 virus was recently identified in a backyard poultry flock in Louisiana, making it the 50th state to report an outbreak. Almost 124 million birds have died of H5N1 since the disease first appeared in flocks in February 2022.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Housing starts and permits at 7:30 a.m. CST

EIA Petroleum Status report including ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CST

FOMC Interest Rate Decision at 1 p.m. CST followed by Fed Chair Powell press conference

Weather

A system moving through the Midwest is producing a band of heavy rain and thunderstorms from northeast Texas through the Ohio Valley early Wednesday morning. That band of rain will sink south throughout the day but weaken, while spreading showers through the East Coast as well. A clipper system is forming in the Canadian Prairies and will be producing heavier snow there and into the Northern Plains throughout the day. Some mixed precipitation may occur on the southern end of the snow band through Wednesday night.

Economic Aid for Farmers in Jeopardy

Legislators are working to try and pass a continuing resolution to keep the government funded, but there were rumblings over the weekend that essential aid for the nation’s farmers wouldn’t be included. Farm Policy News says Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow moved conservation dollars from the Inflation Reduction Act into the baseline for the farm bill. She’d like to take the majority of those funds and put them into a package for farmers immediately. However, Speaker Mike Johnson says the majority of the GOP conference wouldn’t support a proposed agreement that adds Inflation Reduction Act funding into the legislation’s baseline. House GOP leadership says this is a Democratic priority, even though many lawmakers on both sides of the aisle support the move. Ultra-conservative GOP members want to outright cut those IRA dollars and block any additional federal spending. Additionally, some key Republican leaders want more money included for direct farmer aid.

Ag Groups Pressuring Congress for Farm Assistance

Several groups reacted to the news that a continuing resolution to keep the government funded didn’t include assistance for struggling farmers. American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall called on farm-state legislators to oppose the bill if economic aid for farmers is missing. Kenneth Hartman, Jr., president of the National Corn Growers Association, says, “We are disappointed that Congress appears to be at an impasse over crucial economic assistance that farmers desperately need.” National Sorghum Producers Chair Amy France says while the assistance will not make producers whole, “It would be an essential step in helping farm families navigate difficult economic times.” National Association of Conservation Districts President Kim LaFleur says, “America’s producers urgently require help, and integrating IRA conservation investments has strong bipartisan support and would help.” National Farmers Union President Rob Larew says Congress’s “time is short, and they must not walk away from their responsibility to rural America.”

Legislators want Verification of Used Cooking Oil Imports

Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst of Iowa joined bipartisan colleagues in demanding answers from the Environmental Protection Agency regarding used cooking oil imports. The lawmakers want information on the agency’s process for verifying the authenticity of the imports. Responding to a congressional probe, Senior Customs and Border Protection official Troy Miller says the CBP considers UCO imports as pure even when co-mingled with virgin vegetable oil, such as palm oil. Based on that admission, the senators are slamming the EPA’s existing verification process as meaningless. “Without a robust verification process, the credibility of the Renewable Fuel Standard is at risk, and American farmers are likely missing out on key market opportunities,” the legislators said in a letter. “Through August, the U.S. has imported a historic 3.2 billion pounds of UCO this year, which is enough product to displace about 270 million bushels of soybeans. American farmers should be first on the list.”

FCS Updates 2025 Ag Economy Outlook

The Farm Credit Administration’s board received an update on economic issues affecting agriculture. The U.S. economy has continued to show modest growth through 2024, as gains in productivity support real wage growth and boost consumer spending. For agriculture, there’s a sharp divergence in returns for crop and livestock sectors that has become apparent as producers enter 2025. Cash grain farmers are seeing lower returns, with average incomes down sharply this year. In contrast, cattle and dairy farms are forecast to see strong income as lower feed costs benefit producers across the livestock sector. Specialty commodity producers continue to be exposed to fast-growing costs such as labor and interest on farm debt. Farmland values in most regions have been flat in real terms this year. Early indicators find increasing softness in farmland markets as values decline for low-quality land and the number of transactions falls. Premiums for metro-adjacent farmland have risen.

November Tractor and Combine Sales Fall

The Association of Equipment Manufacturers released the November 2024 Ag Tractor/Combine Sales Report that shows lower numbers than November 2023. U.S. sales of tractors in all classes dropped 14.5 percent compared to the same time last year. U.S. combine sales remain soft, showing a decline of 24 percent year to date in 2024. “November’s sales of tractors and combines follow the same pattern of the last few months of softness in the market,” says Curt Blades, AEM Senior Vice President. “This slowdown can be traced back to high interest rates and uncertainty in the ag economy.” U.S. sales of 100-plus horsepower tractors took the biggest drop in November, down 37 percent from November 2023. In Canada, 40-100 horsepower tractors are down 22.6 percent compared to last year, and four-wheel drive tractor sales were closer to stable but still five percent lower. Overall, Canada tractor sales dropped 18.8 percent from last year.

No Mexican Cattle Imports into U.S. Before Holidays

Last week, the USDA reversed course on comments that it may let cattle imports from Mexico into the U.S. resume before the year-end holidays. It suspended those imports in November due to discovery of the New World screwworm in Mexico. The agency says it’s approved a second round of emergency funding to block the flesh-eating livestock pest from getting into the U.S. “Shipments will likely resume incrementally after the New Year, with a full resumption of live animal imports soon after the calendar turns to 2025,” says Dr. Rosemary Sifford, USDA’s Chief Veterinary Officer. Jenny Lester Moffit, the USDA Undersecretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs, had previously told Reuters that imports could still resume in late December. The USDA is reaching into Commodity Credit Corporation funding to aid in the fight against the screwworm in Mexico and Central America, Moffit added. It approved $109.8 million in funding last year.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

FOMC meeting begins, with interest rate decision Wednesday.

U.S. Retail Sales at 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 8:15 a.m. CST

Weather

A weak system is entering the Plains on Tuesday, bringing some snow to the Northern Plains. It will connect with a leftover front from east Texas to the Ohio Valley where showers will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday while light snow continues across the Great Lakes.

Almost All U.S. Farms are Family-Owned

The USDA’s Economic Research Service’s 2024 edition of America’s Farms and Ranches at a Glance says most U.S. farms (86 percent) are small family farms. These farms operate on 41 percent of U.S. agricultural land and account for 17 percent of the total value of American production. Large-scale family farms accounted for 48 percent of the total value of production and 31 percent of agricultural land in 2023. In total, family farms accounted for about 96 percent of total farms and 83 percent of the total production in 2023. Large-scale farms accounted for the majority of the value of cash grains and soybeans (52 percent), cotton (71 percent), and dairy (77 percent). Small family farms produced 45 percent of the value of hay and 46 percent of the total value of U.S. poultry and egg output in 2023. Small farms produced 22 percent of the overall U.S. beef production.

NCGA Announces Yield Contest Winners

The National Corn Growers Association announced the winners of the 2024 Yield Contest. All of the participants delivered outstanding yields, again showing the resilience and ingenuity that define U.S. agriculture. The Contest saw almost 7,800 entries from farmers in 45 states. Entrants across the ten production categories had yields averaging 284 bushels per acre. The highest yield for 2024 came from Charles City, Virginia, where David Hula produced 490.62 bushels per acre. The ground was in the Class H category (strip-till irrigated). “The Yield Contest continues to set the standard across the ag industry,” says NCGA President Kenneth Hartman, Jr. “This contest not only challenges farmers to showcase their expertise, but it also generates valuable agronomic data that drives continuous improvement and future success in agriculture.” Looking back to its beginnings in 1965, the NCGA’s Yield Contest launched with only 20 entrants. The complete list of winners is at ncga.com/YieldContest.

U.S. Corn, Soyoil Exports Outdo Previous Forecasts

The USDA recently had to significantly boost its 2024-2025 export outlooks thanks to better-than-expected export sales for corn and soybeans. Last Tuesday’s WASDE shows record-low stocks to use for U.S. soybean oil. There was also a surprising number in corn ending stocks, which turned out to be smaller than the previous marketing year. Soybean oil sold for exporting in 2024-2025 totaled 416,356 metric tons as of November 28, the highest level in eight years for that date. Last week’s forecast surged 83 percent to 499,000 tons, or 1.1 billion pounds. That’s a three-year high point but still under the average for the last decade. Earlier this year, USDA predicted 2024-2025 U.S. corn ending stocks would surge 17 percent higher to 2.53 billion bushels. The WASDE had corn ending stocks for 2024-2025 at 1.738 billion bushels, down one percent from 2023-2024. Corn exports will jump six percent to 2.475 billion bushels.

Wheat Shipment Expected to Rise

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly wheat outlook shows an expected jump in export forecasts because of weaker exports from Russia and the European Union. Wheat shipments will total 850 million bushels in the 2024-2025 marketing year that ends on May 31, 2025. That’s up from the prior outlook of 825 million bushels and well ahead of last year’s 707 million bushels. USDA says from June through October, wheat exports were reported at 366 million bushels, up 35 percent from the same time last year. The outlook report says the average farm price for wheat is $5.60 a bushel and is based on prices reported to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and expectations for prices from now through the end of May. “Futures prices have declined slightly amid improvements in winter wheat conditions, but global ending stocks are still projected at a nine-year low,” the government says.

CoBank Report Shows Forces Shaping the 2025 Rural Economy

The U.S. continues benefiting from solid economic growth, low unemployment, and moderating inflation, and the overall economy will likely continue on that trajectory next year. However, the rural economic outlook is more uncertain. According to a comprehensive year-ahead outlook report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, the high level of policy uncertainty facing rural industries adds to their already long list of headwinds. “Open access to export markets and labor availability are critically important for agricultural producers and processors,” says Rob Fox, director of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. “Depending on how policy plays out, those two areas could be big challenges for 2025 and beyond.” That’s because the President-elect came out victorious on two main economic policy proposals: enact significant import tariffs and reduce immigration while deporting illegal immigrants. Meantime, falling feed costs and rising margins have renewed expansion interest in animal protein segments. Dairy processing investment will jump by $8 billion through 2026.

USB Elects Phillip Good as New Chair

Farmer-leaders of the United Soybean Board elected Phillip Good from Macon, Mississippi, as the 2025 Chair during its December meeting in St. Charles, Missouri. He’s joined by ten additional farmer-leaders to serve on the Executive Committee. “I’m honored to serve as chair of the United Soybean Board, but it’s all of us working together to achieve one common goal of bringing value back to the soybean farmer,” Good says. “I’m proud to work alongside 76 passionate directors on this board who are strategic thinkers in finding out what is going to give us the greatest return.” He also says that’s especially important because U.S. soybean farmers are in a desperate situation regarding production costs. “When I think about the opportunities that’ll create the most impact, I think about new export opportunities, new technologies, job creation, and feeding the world,” Good adds. “All of that will create a ripple effect.”

Monday Watch List

Markets

Empire State Manufacturing survey at 7:30 a.m. CST

S&P U.S. Services and Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 a.m. CST

U.S. Export Inspections at 10:00 a.m. CST

Weather

A system's low pressure is moving through southern Canada, but scattered showers are developing across the Midwest on Monday, including thunderstorms near the Ohio River. Some areas of heavy rain will occur in this area Monday.

AFBF President Duvall Seeks Fix for H-2A Farm Labor Issues in 2025

Farm labor has been an ongoing issue for the ag industry. With Republicans in control of both the House and Senate beginning January 3rd and President Trump returning to the White House on January 20th, American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall tells Hoosier Ag Today that he’ll be pushing lawmakers on Capitol Hill next year to revise the H-2A Visa program. The H-2A program allows U.S. employers to temporarily hire non-immigrants from different countries for agricultural services throughout the year. However, the program has not been modernized since 1986. H-2A workers in Indiana must be paid the Adverse Effect Wage Rate, which is $18.18 an hour. Meanwhile, the state’s minimum wage rate is $7.25 an hour. To complicate matters further, H-2A workers in other states may also be paid the Prevailing Wage, which is the average wage paid to similarly employed workers in a specific occupation in the area of intended employment.

Invasive Jumping Worms Expanding Territory into the Northeast and Midwest

Native to central Asia and introduced to North America in the late 1800s, jumping worms have recently begun invading natural habitats in the Northeast and Midwest, spreading primarily through horticultural trade. There is also a possibility of their introduction through sale as baitworms, however this has not yet been documented in Canada. These invasive worms outcompete other earthworms and their castings degrade soil quality, leaving it inhospitable to many native plant species and susceptible to increased erosion. As they are voracious eaters, jumping worms quickly consume the top layer of organic material, making it difficult for plants to remain rooted and allowing nutrients to be washed away by rain. Despite their wide dispersal across the United States, knowledge and research gaps concerning their biology and ecology persist. More research into traits linked to their dispersal capacity, establishment and spread is needed to counter their invasion.

Reinke Unveils E3 Precision Center-pivot System

New series claims increased water efficiency and streamlined maintenance. Reinke Manufacturing has unveiled its E3 precision series center pivot system — the third generation of Reinke Electrogator center-pivot systems. E3 takes things to the next level. It’s the first of its kind to have precision spacing from beginning to end. E3 is the first precision series of spans and end booms with uniform coupler spacing (in 30-inch and 60-inch intervals) to ensure a uniform water application rate the entire length of the system. The goal for E3 was to be as consistent and precise as possible. A wider distance between sprinkler locations of previous pivot models results in an increased nozzle size and more water applied to compensate. When the amount of water across the machine varies, it impacts the ability to be uniform.

Bird Flu Detected in Iowa Flock, Disaster Proclamation Extended

The highly pathogenic avian influenza was detected in a commercial turkey flock in Palo Alto County just days after the bird flu was detected in an egg-laying flock in Sioux County. The Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship (IDALS) announced the fifth detection of the H5N1 influenza virus this year on Sunday, and Gov. Kim Reynolds extended a disaster proclamation issued for Sioux County on Friday, to include Palo Alto County. IDALS announced Monday another case of HPAI was detected in Sioux County, also in a commercial egg-laying flock. The avian flu has also appeared in dairy cattle since spring 2024 and has affected nearly 60 humans who have come into contact with infected animals. The consumption of poultry and egg products remains safe, according to the department, as is the consumption of pasteurized dairy products. The USDA announced a new mandatory dairy testing program for the avian flu Dec. 6.

Judge Blocks Rule Strengthening Protections for Temporary Farmworkers Nationwide

The regulation, which grants organizing and safety protections to H-2A visa holders, had already been overturned in a number of states. A federal court blocked a rule strengthening legal protections for temporary farmworkers from going into effect nationwide. The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Mississippi last month sided with farm groups, who argued the Department of Labor exceeded its authority when crafting a rule extending safety and organizing protections to H-2A visa holders. The decision comes after two previous court orders overturned the rule in a number of states and for certain grower groups. The American Farm Bureau Federation says it agrees that workers should be treated fairly and respectfully, but they also stressed that fairness to farmers is important and the DOL rule was overly broad to the point of being unlawful.

In a First, Arizona’s Attorney General Sues a Farm Over Water Use

With agricultural overuse and drought draining aquifers across Arizona, the state’s chief law enforcement officer is suing Saudi Arabia-based Fondomonte. Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed a nuisance lawsuit against an industrial agricultural operation Wednesday in a novel case that alleges the operation’s groundwater pumping is threatening public health and safety and the infrastructure of the surrounding community. The case targets Saudi Arabia-based Fondomonte Arizona LLC, which has farming operations in La Paz County on the state’s border with California that have become emblematic of Arizona’s water woes. The company has been the center of controversy in recent years, with its massive farms making international headlines as they grow alfalfa on state and private land to feed cattle in the Gulf kingdom with no government limits on the amount of water being pumped for the water-intensive crop.

Friday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Import and Export Price data at 7:30 a.m. CST

CFTC Commitment of Traders data at 2:30 p.m. CST

Weather

A burst of cold, arctic air that has found itself across the Corn Belt is already pushing eastward as temperatures rise in the Plains early Friday. That continues through the weekend. In the warm air, a small system will develop in the eastern Plains Friday night into Saturday, being a mix of precipitation types across the Upper Midwest, especially around Iowa.

Food Prices Up Slightly in November

The Food Price Index averaged 127.5 points in November 2024, up 0.5 percent from the October level, and reached its highest value since April 2023. The increase was driven by higher price quotations for dairy products and vegetable oil, which slightly outweighed declines in the meat, cereals, and sugar indexes. The Index was 5.7 percent higher than its corresponding value in November 2023. The number is also 21 percent below its peak of 160.2 points reached in March 2022. The Cereal Price Index averaged 111.4 points in November, down three points from October. The Vegetable Oil Price Index took the biggest jump, rising 11.4 points to 164.1 in November. The FAO Dairy Price Index was 139.9 points, up just under a full point from October. The Meat Price Index averaged 118.1 points in November, 0.9 points lower than in October, and the Sugar Price Index averaged 126.4 points, down 3.1 points.

Proposal to List Monarch Butterfly as Endangered

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service proposed listing the Monarch Butterfly as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. Farmers for Monarchs encourages producers to continue their conservation efforts. “Farmers and landowners play a critical role in monarch conservation, and this threatened listing proposal provides a way toward efforts that’ll benefit the monarch populations,” says Matt Mulica, senior project director at Keystone Policy Center, which facilitates Farmers for Monarchs. Ken Hartman, Jr., president of the National Corn Growers Association, says they look forward to providing input on protecting Monarch butterflies without disrupting critical agriculture activities that help feed and fuel the world. Farm Bureau president Zippy Duvall says preserving natural surroundings for America’s wildlife has long been a priority for America’s farmers and ranchers. “The use of a 4(d) rule acknowledges the work farmers are already doing to protect the monarch while recognizing the need for flexibility in conservation efforts,” Duvall says.

TB Found in Northeast South Dakota Cattle Herd

Bovine tuberculosis has been confirmed in a steer from South Dakota that was at a packing plant in Wisconsin. South Dakota State Veterinarian Dr. Beth Thompson says the infected steer was first identified in late October by meat inspectors during a routine inspection at the plant, and records linked the steer to a Hamlin County, South Dakota, feedlot that marketed the animal. Thompson says the TB infection was confirmed by the National Veterinary Surveillance Laboratory in Iowa last week. Thompson says her office is working with the feedlot owner, USDA officials, area veterinarians, and other producers who may have sold animals purchased by the feedlot to locate the steer’s original source herd. She also notes that precautions are being taken to protect the health of South Dakota’s cattle industry. Thompson says Bovine TB isn’t a threat to U.S. food safety because of milk pasteurization and comprehensive meat inspection programs.

MN Pork Producers Donate 90,000 Meals

The Minnesota Pork Board donated almost 92,000 meals to Second Harvest Heartland, the Upper Midwest’s largest hunger relief organization. This donation reflects a continuing partnership between these organizations who are working together to provide high-quality protein and hunger relief to their state and region. The donation was presented by Olympic athletes Kassidy Cook and Sarah Bacon, active partners in the #CooknBacon promotion run by the Minnesota Pork Board. “We are so grateful for the Minnesota Pork Board’s continuing partnership, but it’s especially needed this year as neighbors deal with rising costs,” says Allison O’Toole, CEO of Second Harvest Heartland. “Prices for necessities like energy, housing, healthcare, and childcare continue climbing, and the more we pay those prices, the smaller our grocery budgets can get.” Todd Selvik, vice president of the MPB Board of Directors, says he’d like to thank Second Harvest Heartland for feeding families in Minnesota and the Midwest.

Milk Producers Respond to Proposed Dietary Guidelines

Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, says his group thanks the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee for recognizing dairy’s role in a healthy diet. The committee continued recommending three servings of dairy for Americans two years and older. “The committee’s scientific review showed that reducing or eliminating dairy from the diet leads to undernourishment in key nutrients for millions of Americans,” Doud says. “The review also made clear that expanding the food group to include additional plant-based alternative beverages outside of fortified soy is not supported by scientific evidence.” This is especially important as the dietary guidelines greatly affect the food options available to children through school meals and other nutrition programs. “We are disappointed that the committee only recommends consumption of unflavored milk, especially as they acknowledge that flavored milk contains beneficial nutrients, and they didn’t find any connection between flavored milk and obesity risk,” he added.

USDA Investing in Rural Jobs and Infrastructure

USDA is investing $6.3 billion in rural and Tribal communities across 44 states to expand access to a clean and reliable electric grid, provide safe drinking water, and create good-paying jobs. “We know strong communities are rooted in their people,” says USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack. “These investments will build modern infrastructure that will attract employers to the nation’s smallest towns and most remote communities, creating jobs, vibrant Main Streets, and lasting economic growth for the people who live there.” More than 200 projects are being financed to strengthen the nation’s infrastructure in rural places, growing the American economy from the middle out and bottom up. For example, the agency is investing $5.7 billion in funding through the Electric Infrastructure Loan and Loan Guarantee Program to help utility providers and electric cooperatives build and improve electric infrastructure and smart-grid technologies in 23 states. For more information, go to rd.usda.gov.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Export Sales Report at 7:30 a.m. CST

U.S. Producer Price Index at 7:30 a.m. CST

Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CST

Oil Crops Outlook from ERS at 11 a.m. CST

Feed and Wheat Outlooks from ERS at 2 p.m. CST

Weather

A burst of cold air has spread out through much of the country east of the Rockies for Thursday, being coldest in the Corn Belt. In the cold air, some light snow will occur and lake-effect snows will be prevalent east of the Great Lakes.

USDA Cuts Corn Ending Stocks by 200 Million Bushels

The USDA’s December WASDE Report shows a 2024-2025 U.S. corn outlook of greater corn used for ethanol, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol was raised 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. Exports rose by 150 million bushels. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is steady at $4.10 a bushel. U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.20 a bushel, down sixty cents from last month. This month’s 2024-2025 wheat outlook is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, increased exports, and lower ending stocks. While projected wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million, it’s still 14 percent higher than last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.

Marketing Assistance Available for Specialty Crop Producers

The Farm Service Agency’s $2 billion Marketing Assistance for Specialty Crops Program is now accepting applications from December 10, 2024, through January 8, 2025. The goal of the program is to help specialty crop producers expand markets and manage higher costs. “Specialty crop growers have typically faced higher marketing and handling costs relative to non-specialty crop producers due to the perishability of fruits, vegetables, floriculture, nursery crops, and herbs,” says FSA Administrator Zach Ducheneaux. “Through this marketing assistance program, we can expand U.S. specialty crop consumption and markets by providing specialty crop producers the financial support they need to help them engage in activities that broaden and enhance strategies and opportunities for marketing their commodities.” The program helps specialty crop producers meet higher marketing costs related to things like the perishability of specialty crops like fruits, vegetables, floriculture, nursery crops, herbs, and others. For information, go to fsa.usda.gov.

Weekly Corn Inspections Improve

Inspections of corn for overseas delivery increased week to week while bean and wheat assessments declined during the week ending on December 5. USDA data says corn inspections rose to 1.05 million metric tons, up from almost 949,000 tons a week earlier and well above the 725,000 tons assessed during the same week last year. Examinations for soybeans for export fell to 1.62 million tons, down from 2.11 million tons the prior week, but still above the 999,790 tons inspected at the same point in 2023. Wheat inspections were reported at 226,513 tons, down from 298,550 the previous week and 293,700 tons last year. Since the start of the marketing year, USDA has inspected 12.1 million metric tons of corn, up from 9.19 million tons during the same period last year. Bean assessments are at 23.4 million tons, up from 19.8 million last year. Wheat assessments are currently 11.2 million tons.

Winter Forecast Features Pattern Shifts

Following a frigid start to December across much of the eastern U.S. that featured feet of lake-effect snow near the Great Lakes, AccuWeather long-range experts have forecasted a temperature tug of war in the updated winter forecast. “We’re going to see waves of colder air through the winter season,” says long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok. “Get ready for a lot of ups and downs.” December kicked off with an arctic blast in the eastern U.S., leaving much of the West mild and dry. The pattern is flipping in mid-December with a thaw and mild weather in the east and central U.S., as well as rain and snow in parts of the West. “We’re favoring heavier rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest and occasionally in Northern California,” Pastelok said. “It could turn colder for the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Midwest, but not as intense as the start of the month.”

NCBA Responds to Dietary Guidelines Report

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association reiterated the important role of beef in a healthy diet and responded to the questionable advice published in the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee’s Scientific Report. Despite a wealth of high-quality scientific evidence that beef has an important role to play in a healthy diet, the committee is advising USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services that federal nutrition guidelines should include a reduction in red meat consumption. “Most Americans already eat beef within the Dietary Guidelines for Americans’ recommended levels for a healthy diet,” says NCBA President Mark Eisele (EYES-lee). “Public health advice should be based on the totality of scientific evidence.” He also says the Advisory Committee ignored robust and rigorous scientific evidence about beef’s essential nutrients and the foundational, positive role it plays in health as a preferred protein in a variety of healthy diets for all Americans.

Soybean Meal Exports Set a New Record

U.S. soy remains America’s number one agricultural export, adding $31.2 billion to the U.S. economy in marketing year 2023-2024. Total soy export volumes were down from the prior year at 60.8 million metric tons, partly due to fewer carry-in stocks and the expansion of domestic crush. However, U.S. soybean meal exports set a record based on increased supply, strong demand, competitive prices, and its nutritional advantage. In the 2023-2024 marketing year, U.S. soybean meal exports totaled a record 14.4 million metric tons, valued at $6.7 billion. This volume was up 10 percent from the prior year and 17 percent higher than the five-year average. The Philippines bought the most soybean meal at 2.6 million metric tons during the marketing year, valued at $6.7 billion. Mexico and Canada were second and third, respectively. Demand is rising in other countries, including Vietnam, where purchases rose 110 percent to almost 744,000 metric tons.  

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Consumer Price Index for November at 7:30 a.m. CST

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report including Ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CST

ERS Feed Grains Database update at 11 a.m. CST

Weather

A strong cold front is pushing through the Corn Belt on Wednesday. It is not producing much precipitation, but the cold air funneling in behind it is significant and enough to squeeze out some light snow and turn on the lake-effect snow machine later Wednesday.

USDA Begins National Milk Testing Strategy for H5N1

The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service announced the start of its National Milk Testing Strategy to address H5N1 infections in U.S. dairy herds. The measure builds on steps already taken by USDA and its federal and state partners since H5N1 was first round in dairy cattle in March 2024. The Federal Order and guidance requires that unpasteurized milk samples nationwide be shared with USDA for testing. The guidance was developed with significant input from state, veterinary, and public health officials and will facilitate comprehensive H5N1 surveillance of the nation’s milk supply and dairy herds. The new Federal Order requires sharing raw milk samples upon request from any entity responsible for a dairy farm, such as a milk transporter, transfer station, or processing facility. Second, it requires owners with positive cattle to provide information that enables contact tracing. Finally, it requires labs and veterinarians to report positive tests to USDA.

EU Reaches Significant Trade Agreement

Late last week, the European Union reached an agreement with Brazil, Argentina, and the three other nations that make up the Mercosur trade alliance. Even as France says it will push the controversial trade deal off course, the agreement ends 25 years’ worth of negotiations. The deal will create one of the world’s largest free trade zones if it gets approved. The free trade zone would cover a market of 780 million people who represent nearly a quarter of the global gross domestic product. However, critics in France, the Netherlands, and other countries with big dairy and beef industries say the pact would subject their farmers to unfair competition and lead to environmental damage. Proponents say the agreement would save businesses approximately $4.26 billion in duties each year, cut red tape delays, and remove tariffs on a large variety of products. Uruguay officials hail the agreement as a truly historic milestone.

October Red Meat Export Pace Above 2023 Levels

U.S. beef and pork exports posted year-over-year increases in October. That’s according to USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation. Beef exports during October totaled 105,269 metric tons, up one percent from last year, while the value jumped three percent to $860.4 million. From January through October, beef export value was four percent higher than last year at $8.68 billion despite a two percent drop in volume to 1.066 million metric tons. Pork exports reached 252,411 metric tons during the month, three percent higher than last year, while value also rose three percent to $710.4 million. Through the first ten months of 2024, pork exports rose five percent from a year ago to 2.49 million metric tons, valued at $7.07 billion, six percent above 2023. For the year, pork exports are projected to pass three million metric tons for the first time, exceeding 2020’s volume record of 2.98 million.

NCBA Endorsed Tax Relief Passes Senate

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association thanked the Senate for passing the Federal Disaster Tax Relief Act last week. In addition to providing much-needed relief to victims of hurricanes, this legislation provides tax relief for cattle producers who received payments due to wildfires. Those payments were counted as taxable income, meaning producers who already suffered from disasters were hurt again by having their relief payments taxed. “It only adds to the pain of destruction when the payments meant to help you recover come with a tax bill,” says NCBA President Mark Eisele (EYES-lee). “With the devastating hurricanes and wildfires the cattle industry suffered over the past several years, helping producers stay in business is NCBA’s top priority.” The Act addresses limitations in casualty losses and allows producers to take greater deductions for disaster-related losses. The bill passed in the House, so it heads to the president’s desk for a signature.

USB Investments Yield an Impressive Return

The United Soybean Board continues to deliver economic returns to U.S. soybean farmers through strategic investment. That’s despite a challenging economic landscape of low commodity prices and tight margins. This remains critical to ensure farmers receive measurable value on-farm and through expanded opportunities. A recent study confirms the soy checkoff’s positive return of at least 4.5-1 on investment across the categories of export market development, domestic demand-enhancing research, on-farm production research, and soybean promotion. Cumulatively, soy-checkoff-funded initiatives at the national and state level supported almost 31,000 jobs, added $2.6 billion in labor income, contributed $5.9 billion in total value, and increased the U.S. GDP by $9.8 billion. “We focus on maximizing the impact of every dollar invested by creating new revenue streams for farmers, building premium markets, and establishing partnerships here and abroad where farmers can see tangible returns,” says Phillip Good, USB’s Chair of the Audit Committee.

USGC Issues Corn Harvest Quality Report

The U.S. Grains Council’s 2024-2025 Corn Harvest Quality Report says the 2024 U.S. corn crop is projected to be the third largest on record with the highest 100-kernel weight in the history of the report. The 2024 crop also has lower broken corn and foreign material (BCFM), lower total damage, and lower moisture than in the last five years. Favorable growing season conditions contributed to the highest projected average yield on record and promoted good grain quality. The report showed that 89.2 percent of the 620 yellow corn samples taken from the top 12 corn-producing states in the country met all the grade factor requirements for U.S. No. 1 grade, and 96.2 percent met the grade factor requirements for U.S. No. 2 grade corn. A test weight of 59.8 pounds per bushel is the largest test weight in the history of this report. The average U.S. aggregate BCFM in 2024 was 0.6 percent

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Productivity and Cost Report at 7:30 a.m. CST

USDA December World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report at 11 a.m. CST

Weather

A front and system is reorganizing in the Southeast on Tuesday, which will spread showers northeast throughout the rest of the day. An arctic cold front is pushing through the Canadian Prairies and will move through the Northern Plains later Tuesday, ushering in a rush of cold, arctic air that will spread through the Corn Belt and Northeast over the next couple of days.

Corn Sales for Export Surge, Soybean Sales Decline

Sales of corn to overseas buyers jumped week to week while soybean sales declined, according to the Ag Department. Corn sales in the seven days that ended on Nov. 28 jumped to 1.73 million metric tons, up 63% from the previous week and 4% from the prior four-week average, the agency said. Mexico was the big buyer at 392,400 metric tons, followed by Japan at 357,700 tons and an unnamed country at 283,600 tons. South Korea was in for 212,700 tons and Costa Rica bought 84,200 tons. The total would’ve been higher, but Guatemala canceled orders for 27,700 tons. Exports for the week rose 3% to 1.05 million tons, USDA said. Soybean sales fell 7% week over week to 2.31 million metric tons, the government said. That’s still up 17% from the average for this time of year. 

One Mutation Could Make H5N1 a Greater Threat, Researchers Say

While there has been no sign of person-to-person spread of bird flu, researchers now say that a single mutation in the H5N1 avian influenza virus could enhance the virus’ ability to attach to human cells. That could potentially increase the possibility of transmission among humans, according to a study led by a team of scientists at the Scripps Research Institute. These findings highlight the need for continuous surveillance of emerging mutations in avian and bovine clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 viruses, said the study, published in the journal Science. An editor’s summary attached to the study indicated in nature, the occurrence of this single mutation could be an indicator of a human pandemic risk. Public health officials say genomic analysis of the H5N1 virus have found no changes that would make the virus more communicable among humans. They say the risk to the general public is low.

Water Resource Development Act Passed

Every two years and authorizes the improvement and maintenance of our nation’s inland waterways, ports, and flood and storm protection via the Water Resource Development Act (WRDA).  The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is the designated federal agency responsible for the implementation of WRDA legislation. If passed by both the House and the Senate, it will continue the track record of Congress passing a biennial WRDA since 2014. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 48% of U.S. soybean exports are transported by barge – primarily to export terminals along the lower Mississippi River.  Barge transportation is one of predominant reasons U.S. soybean farmers are so competitive in the international marketplace.  Investing in the inland waterway system and ports is simultaneously an investment in the success of soybean farmers.  One barge is capable of transporting up to 57,000 bushels of soybeans – the equivalent of 62 semi-trucks.  A typical 15 barge tow can therefore transport up to 855,000 bushels – the equivalent of 940 semi-trucks.

Clemson University Breaks Ground on New Vet School

Clemson University officials and state leaders have broken ground on the Harvey S. Peeler Jr. College of Veterinary Medicine, marking a historic moment for Clemson University and the state of South Carolina as the only college of veterinary medicine in the state continues to take shape. The new facilities are named in honor of State Senator Harvey Peeler.  “Senator Peeler has passionately supported the development of a college of veterinary medicine for more than 20 years, and his efforts throughout the process have been instrumental in developing this new college at Clemson,” Clemson Board Chair Kim Wilkerson said. “In recognition of his contributions to this historic development for Clemson and the entire state, our board is excited to name this new college in his honor.” Peeler, the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee and a cattle farmer in his hometown of Gaffney, said he has experienced firsthand the need for large and small animal veterinarians in the state.

Republican Governors Write to Congressional Leadership about Farm Bill

Republican governors have written Congress on the urgent need to update the 2018 Farm Bill. In the letter, the state leaders emphasized how the agriculture industry has experienced high inflation, high input costs, high interest rates, catastrophic weather events, natural disasters, regulatory uncertainty, and a growing agricultural trade deficit. High inflation has significantly increased the costs of essentials like seed, fertilizer, and fuel, with some input prices rising over 30% in just the past year. Unprecedented droughts, fire, floods, and hurricanes have devastated crops and livestock across the country. Elevated interest rates are making it more difficult for farmers to secure the financing they need for operations, while supply chain disruptions continue to hinder access to critical resources. American farmers and ranchers are the most productive, effective, and efficient producers, with each farm, on average, feeding 150 people globally. In the vast majority of states throughout the country, agriculture serves as the largest industry. Farmers and ranchers serve as the best stewards of our land, preserving our natural resources for generations to come, ensuring rural communities continue to thrive. Farmers are projected to lose up to $35 billion in lost profit this year alone.

USDA to Enhance Support for Farmers with Increased Replant Payments

USDA is bolstering support for farmers facing crop setbacks by announcing an increase in replant payments for most producers beginning with the 2026 crop year. This initiative aims to provide financial assistance to farmers who need to replant insured crops damaged by early insurable causes of loss. The enhancement in replant payments underscores the Risk Management Agency’s commitment to sustain agricultural productivity and economic stability. Replant payments assist farmers with the financial burden of replanting, offering them a pathway to recover more than the insurance indemnity alone potentially would provide. Replant payment factors have not been updated since they were established in the 1990s. RMA reviewed replant payment factors to ensure they reflect current replanting costs. The agency determined most small grains and coarse grains crops will receive a significant increase. RMA will consider future updates based on new data, further analysis, and stakeholder feedback from these changes.

Monday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CST

Traders await Tuesday's WASDE, Crop Production reports.

Weather

A two-part system is moving through the U.S. on Monday. The first part is among some warmer air in the East, bringing scattered rain showers. The second piece has some colder air with it and is producing some light snow and breezy winds across the north.

Cattlemen Relieved by Court Decision

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association hailed a nationwide preliminary injunction blocking the Corporate Transparency Act from being enforced on January 1, 2025. The ruling from the East Texas U.S. District Court protects millions of family farmers and ranchers from onerous reporting requirements imposed by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, a division of the Treasury Department. “The CTA requires millions of family farmers and ranchers to file complex paperwork and disclose beneficial ownership information with the federal government under penalty of severe fines and jail time,” says NCBA Executive Director of Government Affairs Kent Bacus. “Cattle producers are relieved that this mandate is on hold while the law is being considered by the courts.” The injunction prevents the CTA from taking effect until the outcome of a case brought by a Texas small business that challenged the legality of the Corporate Transparency Act. “We’ll be working with Congress on a solution,” he added.

Legislation Expanding Broadband Access Passes Senate

Senators Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Joni Ernst (R-IA) announced their “Access to Capital Creates Economic Strength and Supports Rural America Act” unanimously passed in the Senate. The ACCESS Act expands rural broadband access by easing the burden of regulatory costs for smaller broadband providers that rural communities rely on. Baldwin says access to high-speed internet is no longer a luxury. “It’s a necessity for rural Americans to work, attend school, run their businesses, manage their farms, and connect with people around the world,” she said. “For too long, small providers, often in rural areas, get caught up in burdensome regulations, which stopped them from reaching more people.” The legislation provides regulatory relief to rural telecommunications service providers by allowing them to submit streamlined financial reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Shirley Bloomfield, CEO of the NTCA – the Rural Broadband Association, thanked them for getting the bill through the Senate.