Lawmakers Welcome Extension of Line Speed Trial for Pork Processing Facilities

A group of Republican lawmakers welcome USADA’s extension for the Time-Limited Trial for New Swine Inspection System. However, they caution that the short 30-day extension would do little to provide needed certainty for pork producers, who contract with processing facilities many months in advance. The announcement comes weeks after Senator Chuck Grassley and Representative Brad Finstad led a bicameral letter requesting USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack issue the extension to ensure participating processing plants can continue operating at increased line speeds. This is the second time USDA has extended the trial at Grassley and Finstad’s urging. Grassley says, “. While I’m pleased that USDA has taken a step in the right direction by extending the program, the agency risks creating a harmful bottleneck in the pork supply chain if it fails to extend the program beyond just three months.” Finstad adds, “I will continue to urge USDA to provide certainty to our pork processors and producers by permanently allowing them to continue functioning at full operational capacity.”

USDA Changes Notice of Loss Requirements for Two Livestock Programs

The Department of Agriculture has waived certain notice of loss requirements in 2023 for the Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees, and Farm-raised Fish and the Livestock Indemnity Program. In an effort to streamline assistance to support access to critical 2023 natural disaster recovery assistance, USDA’s Farm Service Agency is waiving the requirement to submit Emergency Assistance for Livestock or Livestock Indemnity Program notices of loss within a pre-determined number of days for 2023. Instead, producers have the flexibility to submit 2023 notices of loss as soon as possible, once losses are realized, following a natural disaster event or no later than the established annual program application for payment deadlines for each program. FSA Administrator Zach Ducheneaux says, “Our goal is to get producers into these disaster programs, and they are always encouraged to turn in an application if they believe they are eligible.” Contact your local Farm Service Agency office for more information.

Report: Pork exports to China surged During ASF Outbreak

The 2018 spread of African swine fever to China had reverberations in the global pork market, according to new data from USDA’s Economic Research Service. ASF caused an estimated loss of 27.9 million metric tons in China's pork output from late 2018 to early 2021 and led to a doubling of China's domestic pork prices. The high prices attracted a surge of pork exports from four major suppliers—the European Union, the United States, Brazil, and Canada. While the EU was the top supplier, U.S. pork exports were sizable and reached a record high of more than 287,000 metric tons in the second quarter of 2020. Official data indicate that China's pork production returned to its pre-ASF level in 2021. While exports to China are down from their peak, China is still one of the top three overseas markets for U.S. pork, with sales in the first six months of 2023 exceeding annual totals posted in years before ASF hit China.

NCGA Yield Contest Deadline Extended

The National Corn Growers association this week extended the National Corn Yield Contest Harvest Entry deadline to December 5. After considering the unique challenges that growers across the country have faced during the 2023 harvest season, NCGA moved the deadline from November 30. Contest participants can submit a harvest entry from now until 4 p.m. CT on Tuesday, December 5, at ncga.com/ncyc. Entry requirements, yield worksheets, and more information are available on that website. Participants must submit their harvest results to be included in the 2023 rankings. The 2023 National Corn Yield Contest Winner's Announcement will still take place on Wednesday, December 13. The NCGA National Corn Yield Contest has been organized to encourage the development of new, sustainable, and innovative management practices resulting in higher yields and to show the importance of using sound agricultural practices in United States corn production. Entrants must be a producer and member of the National Corn Growers Association.

Application Period Opens for Regional Agricultural Promotion Program

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack Wednesday announced the Notice of Funding Opportunity for the first tranche of funding under the USDA's new Regional Agricultural Promotion Program. USDA is providing up to $300 million in funding in its first year to support eligible projects that enable exporters to break into new markets and increase market share in growth markets. Secretary Vilsack announced the funding at the President's Export Council, after announcing the establishment of the program in October. The effort is a $1.2 billion program made possible through the Commodity Credit Corporation, which will be made available over five years. Vilsack says, "It takes significant investment to open and develop new export markets and this new fund will be dedicated to helping provide that start-up capital." The funds are available to non-profit U.S. agricultural trade organizations, non-profit state regional trade groups, agricultural cooperatives, and state agencies that conduct approved market development activities. Applications are due in February and more information is available at grants.gov.

RFA Partners with Girls Auto Clinic for Ethanol Education

The Renewable Fuels Association has partnered with the Girls Auto Clinic to bring ethanol education and promotion to a new and growing audience: women who are actively interested in auto purchasing, maintenance, and repair. Founded in 2013, Girls Auto Clinic builds and provides tools to drive knowledge and engagement to women, or "shecanics," to own their automotive experiences. The organization empowers women to be fully engaged and confident in purchasing and managing their vehicles, while also increasing the presence of women successfully and happily employed within the automotive industry. RFA Vice President for Industry Relations Robert White says, “It's important for all consumers to understand the value of American-made ethanol, as it provides critical cost savings for families and benefits for the climate and the air we breathe.” Girls Auto Clinic CEO and founder Patrice Banks adds, “with RFA's backing, we can extend our reach, empowering more women across the country to become confident drivers and smart consumers."

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report will be posted at 7:30 a.m. CST Thursday, the same time as weekly U.S. jobless claims, reports on U.S. personal income and spending in October, the personal consumption expenditures index for October and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Energy Department's report on natural gas storage follows at 10 a.m.

Weather

A storm system is building in the Southern Plains on Thursday, which will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day. The storm system will spread into the Ohio Valley tonight through Friday. Precipitation amounts could be moderate and there is a small risk for accumulating snow on the northern edge of the system from parts of Kansas to Michigan tonight through early Saturday.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

A report on third-quarter U.S. GDP will be out at 7:30 a.m. CST Wednesday. The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory report will follow at 9:30 a.m. with an update of ethanol production. Traders continue to keep close watch on South American weather.

Weather

A warm front is bringing some light snow to the Great Lakes on Wednesday, but also much warmer air than Tuesday to much of the country east of the Rockies. Another cold front will drop south out of Canada tonight, though, with slightly cooler air to follow for Thursday across the north.

Growth Rate of Ag Output Continues Slowdown

In the last decade, the world’s agricultural output grew at an average annual rate of 1.94 percent per year. A USDA report says that’s slower than the 2.74 percent output growth rate over the previous decade and below the average annual rate of 2.3 percent during the last six decades. The slowdown in agricultural growth was primarily tied to a slowing rate of growth in agricultural total factor productivity, or TFP. The world agriculture’s TFP fell to 1.14 percent per year from 2011-2021 compared to 1.93 percent per year during the previous decade. TFP measures the amount of agricultural output produced from the aggregated inputs used in the production process, including land, labor, capital, and material resources. There are four major sources of overall growth, such as bringing more land into production, extending irrigation to land, intensifying capital use, labor, and material inputs per unit of land, and improving TFP.

Groups Respond to Small Refinery Exemptions Decision

A coalition representing farmers and ethanol producers responded to last week’s decision of the Fifth Circuit Court on Small Refinery Exemptions under the Renewable Fuels Standard. The Court remanded to the Environmental Protection Agency its rejection of six small refinery exemption requests. The coalition that includes the Renewable Fuels Association, Growth Energy, the American Coalition for Ethanol, and the National Farmers Union says they are disappointed by the decision and will continue to defend the Renewable Fuel Standard. “We will continue fighting the illegal abuse of small refinery exemptions,” the groups said in a statement. “As other federal courts have determined, the RFS does not impose an economic burden on oil refiners because any compliance costs are passed down the supply chain.” The groups also say the refiners’ lawsuit wasn’t about economic hardship but more about oil refineries doing everything they could to dodge legal obligations to blend renewable fuels.

Grant Applications for Improving School Meals Are Open

Applications are now open for the School Food Systems Transformation Challenge Sub-Grants, which is a part of USDA’s Healthy Meals Incentives Initiative. USDA says the grants will transform the K-12 school food marketplace by increasing collaboration between school districts, food producers, suppliers, distributors, and community partners. Students can expect to see improvements in the quality of food on their plates thanks to these new efforts. All eligible applicants are encouraged to consider applying for one or both of the grant opportunities. The first is the Supporting Community Agriculture and Local Education Systems (SCALES) Grant, and the second is Partnerships for Local Agriculture and Nutrition in Schools (PLANTS.) SCALES projects are designed to increase the procurement of locally sourced foods by developing partnerships between schools and producers as well as growers and processors. PLANT projects will support regional efforts to expand scratch-cooked meal programs and create sustainable change for all school districts.

Variety Crop Trial Results are Now Available

The Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station and the College of Food, Agricultural, and Natural Resource Sciences have published the 2023 Minnesota Field Crop Trials. Crops included in this year’s trial include barley, canola, corn grain, oats, soybeans, spring wheat, winter rye, and winter wheat. The University of Minnesota field crop trials are done every year to provide unbiased and trustworthy information to help farmers when they are ready to make seed choices. The annual Field Crop Trials are one of the key ways that the University of Minnesota works to bring valuable research into the hands of farmers and ultimately help improve farm profitability, improve the economy, and the overall quality of life for farmers and rural communities. Since the late 1880s, the U of M has published reports of crop variety trials, but it wasn’t until 1948 that the trials were combined into a single annual publication. Go to varietytrials.umn.edu.

Export Inspections Decline for Corn, Beans, and Wheat

The USDA says inspections of corn, soybeans, and wheat all turned lower during the week ending on November 23. Corn inspections dropped to almost 406,700 metric tons from just over 601,000 a week earlier. That’s still above the 311,700 tons assessed during the same week in 2022. Soybean assessments for export fell to 1.44 million tons from 1.63 million the previous week. That’s well below the 2.3 million tons examined during the same week last year. Wheat inspections dropped to 276,600 tons, down from 366,400 tons during the previous week. It’s also lower than the amount of wheat assessed for export during the same week in 2022. Since the start of the marketing year on September 1, the government has inspected 7.27 million metric tons of corn, down from 5.82 million last year. Soybean inspections are at 17.5 million tons, while wheat assessments are two million lower than last year. 

USDA Report Shows Full Impact of ASF in China

An Economic Research Service report shows the full impact of African Swine Fever in China, and the impact was likely more than Chinese officials reported. The agency’s report investigated how China’s reduced pork supplies affected other pork-exporting countries. The virus moved from Europe to China and spread rapidly throughout the country, leading to a 30-month cycle of decline and recovery between 2018 and 2021. China lost an estimated 27.9 million metric tons of its pork production during that 30-month cycle. Pork prices in China more than doubled, with most of the increase occurring about a year after the initial outbreaks. A total of 31 countries saw surging pork exports to China during the down cycle. Impacts on pork markets outside of China were relatively modest. Increases in pork prices in leading exporters like the U.S., Germany, and Spain, were relatively brief and much smaller than the price increases in China. 

USMCA Panel Limits U.S. Dairy Access in Canada

Late last week, a U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement dispute panel allowed Canada to continue restricting dairy access that the U.S. negotiated for under the agreement. The action came after an earlier panel ruled in January 2022 that Canada had improperly restricted access to its market for American dairy products. American agriculture leaders and groups reacted negatively to the decision. “It’s profoundly disappointing that the dispute settlement panel chose obstruction rather than facilitation in trade,” says Jim Mulhern, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation. “We urge USDA and the USTR to look at all available options to ensure that Canada stops playing games with trade agreements.”  Krysta Harden, president and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council, says this isn’t the only shortcoming in Canada’s international commitments. “We are committed to working with USTR and USDA to address Canada’s harmful actions that help evade USMCA dairy export disciplines,” she says.

More Reaction from USMCA Dairy Decision

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said two of the three USMCA dispute panel members found that Canada’s dairy import policies don’t breach its commitments under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement. “I’m very disappointed by the findings in the USMCA panel report on Canada’s dairy TRQ allocation measures,” Tai says. “While the United States won a previous USMCA dispute on Canada’s dairy TRQ allocations, Canada’s revised policies still haven’t fixed the problem for U.S. dairy farmers.” In the dispute panel’s report, it found that Canada’s measures are not inconsistent with the USMCA provisions cited by the U.S. The panel split on the U.S. claims that Canada’s exclusion of retailers, food service operators, and others from eligibility and its historical market share approach to allocating dairy TRQs breach its obligations. House Ag Committee Ranking Member David Scott (D-GA) says, “It’s critical we enforce USMCA as this decision allows Canada to continue with its protectionist practices.”

USDA Making Investments in U.S. Food Chains

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack says his agency is making investments to strengthen American food and agriculture supply chains, expand markets for producers, and lower food costs. “We’re using these investments in agricultural producers and rural entrepreneurs to create better economic opportunities that bolster food supply chains across the country and increase competition,” Vilsack says. “This will result in more affordable prices and choices for consumers, as well as more opportunities and revenues for farmers.” USDA is making investments in 185 projects worth nearly $196 million to create new and better market opportunities in states like Arizona, Illinois, New York, 34 other states, and Puerto Rico. Today’s announcement was made as part of the inaugural meeting of the new White House Council on Supply Chain Resilience. The goal is to lower costs for American families and increase investments in American supply chains that are critical to economic and national security.

Jury Rules that Egg Producers Conspired to Fix Prices

An Illinois jury found that several of the country’s major egg producers conspired to limit America’s supply of eggs in order to raise prices in a case that began in a federal lawsuit 12 years ago. Several large food manufacturing companies in the lawsuit filed in 2011 said producers used various means to limit the U.S. domestic supply of eggs to increase the price of eggs and egg products during the 2000s. “We are incredibly pleased that the jury held egg producers Cal-Maine Foods and Rose Acre Farms accountable alongside United Egg Producers and United States Egg Marketers for conspiring to inflate the price of eggs,” says Brandon Fox, an attorney for the food manufacturers. Damages will be decided during a trial this week. The jury found the egg suppliers exported eggs to reduce the overall supply in the domestic market and limited the number of chickens available for laying eggs.

Nominations are Open for USB’s Legacy Award

The United Soybean Board announced a call for nominations for the Tom Oswald Legacy Award. In its second year, this award honors the late Tom Oswald, who will always be remembered as a passionate farmer-leader and dedicated volunteer. The award recognizes someone who went above and beyond to move research and promotion investments forward in a conventional way. “Within our soy community, we are fortunate to have leaders who ensure we’re stewarding farmer checkoff dollars to their full potential,” says Meagan Kaiser, USB Chair. “We look forward to getting numerous worthy nominations and eagerly await the opportunity to celebrate an exceptional leader who’s leading the way for a more prosperous and sustainable future for U.S. soy farmers.” If you know an organization, group, or individual that should be recognized for their efforts and passion for the industry, visit the USB website to submit a nomination. Nominations close on January 8, 2024.

Farm Bureau Announces Keynote Speaker at 2024 Convention

Greg Harden, a best-selling author and former associate athletic director of student counseling at the University of Michigan, will be the keynote speaker at the 2024 Farm Bureau convention. He’ll address attendees during the closing session of the annual convention on Monday, January 22. Harden counseled more than 400 student-athletes, including names like Super Bowl champion Tom Brady, Heisman Trophy winners Desmond Howard and Charles Woodson, and Olympic swimming champion Michael Phelps. “Persistent, patient, and resilient are among the traits that professional athletes share with farmers and ranchers,” says Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall. “That’s why Greg’s message about coaching and mentorship is so timely.” Duvall also says the lineup for the entire convention is outstanding. In addition to guest speakers and exciting competitions, they’ll host important conversations about top priorities for U.S. agriculture, including the farm bill. The 105th AFBF convention is in Salt Lake City, Utah, January 19-24, 2024.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

There are not many reports Tuesday, but there is a report on U.S. consumer confidence at 9 a.m. CST. Traders continue to closely watch South American weather and could be jumpy after Monday's new lows in corn, wheat and livestock.

Weather

Cold air moving over the Great Lakes continues to produce lake-effect snow Tuesday, leading to some hefty amounts in some of the more prone areas. The rest of the country will be more quiet. Though it is cold this morning in the Plains, temperatures are forecast to increase significantly this afternoon.

Top 5 Things to Watch - Slight Warming and Markets Return to Full Time

1. Ag Summit approaches: We're in full swing on registration for our 2023 DTN Virtual Ag Summit, Dec. 5-6. The two half-day sessions will be packed with quick-to-digest presentations on business-critical topics from changing farmland values to finances, interest rates and global economics. 

2. Warming trend: While lake-effect snows will continue around the Great Lakes, The Plains will be turn drier and most of the country will see warmer-than-normal temperatures as El Nino conditions continue to build. For longer-term conditions, don't miss DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick's 2024 forecast on Dec. 6 during the DTN Virtual Ag Summit.

3. Volunteers with a view: DTN's Crops Technology Editor Pamela Smith is starting the search for candidates for our annual View From the Cab stories. That highly popular series discusses what's going on in the world of two farm operations, and kicks off just ahead of spring planting. .

4. Watching for awakening markets: As traders come back from the holiday-shortened week, we're watching wheat prices and any surprises from South America. 

5. Todd Hultman, will be talking about corn and soybean markets at the Greater Peoria Farm Show through Thursday. Information on that event is here: 5. Economic reports to watch: Monday features a report on new U.S. home sales in October at 9 a.m., followed by USDA's weekly report of grain export inspections at 10 a.m. and Crop Progress at 3 p.m. On Tuesday, we'll watch the U.S. consumer confidence report set for 9 a.m. Then Wednesday sees the report on third-quarter U.S. GDP, out at 7:30 a.m. The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory report will be released at 9:30 a.m. Thursday starts with USDA's weekly export sales report, posted at 7:30 a.m., the same time as weekly U.S. jobless claims, reports on U.S. personal income and spending in October, the personal consumption expenditures index for October and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Energy Department's report on natural gas storage follows at 10 a.m. On Friday, manufacturing reports arrive overnight from around the world and the Institute of Supply Management's index for the U.S. is released at 9 a.m. At 2 p.m., USDA's NASS releases its monthly Fats and Oils report.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will continue to keep watch over South American weather. A report on new U.S. home sales in October will be out at 9 a.m. CST Monday, followed by USDA's weekly report of grain export inspections at 10 a.m. and Crop Progress at 3 p.m. CFTC data for the week ended Nov. 21 will also be released Monday afternoon.

Weather

Colder air east of the Rockies is leading to some lake-effect snows around the Great Lakes for Monday. Overnight lows have become especially cold around the snow that fell in the Central and Southern Plains over the holiday weekend. That snow will slowly melt away this week.

Most States Saw Growth in Net Farm Income During 2022

The U.S. saw growth of almost 31 percent in net farm income from 2021 through 2022. NFI is a broad measure of farm sector profitability. Researchers with USDA’s Economic Research Service used data from the Farm Income and Wealth Statistics to classify states into six categories of NFI changes. The five agricultural states with the highest NFI include Texas, which had the highest NFI growth at 65 percent from 2021 to 2022, followed by Minnesota at 55.7 percent. Growth in the remaining top five states, including California, Iowa, and Illinois was also strong. Other states among the top 25 for average NFI had a wide range of NFI changes from 2021 to 2022. Many showed strong growth, such as Idaho at 116 percent, Georgia at 104 percent, Florida at just over 100 percent, and North Dakota at 76 percent. However, Kansas and Washington NFI fell 23 and 28 percent, respectively.

Study Proves U.S. Corn Superiority

The U.S. Grains Council released its second annual Corn Origins Report, which explores the performance of U.S. corn against corn from other countries in poultry diets. U.S., Argentinian, and Brazilian corn samples were collected from an international feed company in Colombia for use in the study. The study found that birds fed diets with U.S. corn consumed less feed throughout the entire grow-out phase compared to those fed Argentinian or Brazilian corn. The lower feed conversion rates in the poultry fed U.S. corn translated into significant long-term cost savings. Depending upon the number of poultry produced, the savings could be very large. The study was done to address customer concerns about the fragility of U.S. corn and the breakage occurring during the export process. “We found that U.S. corn, despite its fragility, outperforms other origins in terms of digestible starch,” says Kurt Schultz, senior director of Global Strategies for USGC.

Horizon Organic Suspends Milk from Texas Farm

Danone’s (DA-nun’s) Horizon Organic brand says it has suspended all sourcing of milk from Texas supplier Lone Star Organic Dairy. The move comes after People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals released a whistleblower’s report appearing to show animal suffering and deaths at the operation. PETA shared its findings with USDA and asked the agency to investigate Lone Star Organic Dairy and revoke its organic qualification for any violations that it confirms. Agriculture Dive says Horizon Organic is the second big dairy brand to be hit by animal abuse allegations in the last several months. Tyler Holm, general manager of Horizon Organic, says, “We are deeply disturbed to see the videos and photos shared by PETA. The care and welfare of cows are a critical part of our company and brand values. We take these allegations seriously.” Danone didn’t say what percentage of milk that Lone Star Contributes to the Horizon brand.

Minneapolis Fed Releases Third Quarter Survey Results

Heading into harvest in the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Banks’ District, farmers faced lower incomes because of falling commodity prices and rising production costs. A third-quarter survey of ag bankers showed that while incomes fell, the decline wasn’t uniform. Districtwide, 46 percent of agricultural lenders said incomes dropped in the third quarter from a year earlier, up from 35 percent in the second quarter. More than a third of the bankers said farm household spending increased, while slightly more than half reported no change. Capital spending also dropped as 35 percent of the bankers saw decreased investment in equipment and buildings from a year ago, compared to 21 percent who reported increased spending. “Interest rates are slowing down borrowing and capital purchases as cash flows are under more stress,” a Minnesota banker reported. Farm finances remained in good condition despite the negative hit to income. Loan repayment rate held steady.

Deere Fourth-Quarter Sales Drop Slightly

Deere & Co. sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023 fell year-over-year, though the earnings per share did increase. The company says in a report that revenue in the three months ending on September 30 was reported at $15.41 billion, one percent lower than the same quarter last year. The equipment manufacturer also says earnings rose to $8.26 a share from $7.44 a year earlier. Production and precision agriculture sales in the fourth quarter fell six percent to $6.97 billion. Small agriculture and turf revenue was down 13 percent year-over-year to $3.09 billion, and construction and forestry sales rose 11 percent to $3.74 billion. “Production and precision agriculture sales decreased in the fourth quarter due to lower shipment volumes partially offset by price realization,” Deere says. Full-year sales for Deere jumped 16 percent to $61.25 billion, while earnings came in at $34.63 a share versus $23.28 a year earlier.

NCGA, BASF Announce 16th Annual Scholarship Program

The National Corn Growers Association and BASF have partnered for another year to provide scholarships to undergraduate students passionate about agriculture. Over the past sixteen years, more than 80 undergraduate students have received scholarship funds to aid them in pursuing higher education. “BASF has been a long-standing partner in support of this program, and we are grateful for the commitment to building up the next generation of leaders in our industry,” says Dan Nerud, chair of NCGA’s Member and Consumer Engagement Action Team. “Our grower members are passionate about this program, and we are excited for another year of supporting students who share our passion for agriculture.” The William C. Berg Academic Excellence Undergraduate Scholarship is open to NCGA members and their children pursuing an undergraduate degree in any field. A completed application must be submitted by January 31, 2024. Scholarships are for one year, and previous recipients may not apply.

Friday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report will be posted at 7:30 a.m. CST on Black Friday, a day known more for store bargains and football games. U.S. grain and livestock futures commence trading at 8:30 a.m. for a short holiday session that has most grain and livestock contracts closed by 12:05 p.m. South American weather will remain the focus for any traders of corn and soybeans that show up for work.

Weather

A cold front continues to sag south through the country Friday, bringing in a burst of seasonably cold air. In the cold, snow has developed in the central Rockies and Central Plains, which continues Friday. Some bursts and streaks of heavier snow will be possible going into the weekend in these areas.

Groups Express Concern About Disaster Relief Changes

The National Corn Growers and 16 state-affiliated associations joined more than 140 allied national, regional, and state commodity organizations opposing changes to USDA disaster relief. The groups sent a letter to Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack relaying their concerns with the design of the Emergency Relief Program for 2022. While the group showed appreciation for the allocation of $3.74 billion in much-needed ERP assistance, the groups expressed serious concerns with changes. The biggest change is a “progressive factor” that reduces the disaster assistance for many eligible growers based on the size of the losses. USDA also changed the method used to incorporate producer-paid insurance premiums. “In the case of the progressive payment factor, we oppose a policy that delivers the least amount of benefit to those who have lost the most outside of the payment limits provided in the statute,” the letter says. “Support should be equitable for losses of all magnitudes.”

Cattle on Feed Up Two Percent

The USDA’s November 1 Cattle on Feed Report says cattle numbers were two percent higher than the previous report. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 1.19 million head on November 1, 2023. That inventory total was two percent higher than on November 1, 2022. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.16 million head, four percent higher than in 2022. Net placements were 2.11 million head. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds hit 550,000 head, 600-699 pounds totaled 470,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 465,000 head, and 800-899 pounds were 394,000 head. Cattle weighing 900-999 pounds totaled 205,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 80,000 head. Fed cattle marketings during October totaled 1.76 million head, three percent lower than in 2022. Other disappearances totaled 55,000 head, two percent higher than last year.

Strengthening Agriculture’s Talent Pipeline

Agriculture Future of America and the National FFA Organization made their partnership official. The groups signed a Memorandum of Understanding during AFA’s Leaders Conference in November. The MOU cements the bond that existed between the two groups and underscores a shared commitment to developing and empowering the next generation of leaders. “AFA and FFA have similar goals and values regarding the role of school-based agricultural education,” says Scott Stump, CEO of the National FFA Organization. One of the primary objectives of this partnership is to create a seamless pathway for young individuals who are passionate about agriculture to transition from FFA to AFA. By doing so, they’ll get access to a wide array of leadership development opportunities, scholarships, internships, membership programs, and job opportunities. FFA and AFA also intend to collaborate on various projects and initiatives that promote agricultural education and leadership, including the chance to interact with experienced professionals  

Partnership to Create Jobs and Growth in Rural America

USDA Deputy Secretary Xochitl (zo-CHEEL) Torres Small announced that the agency is strengthening a longstanding partnership with the Small Business Administration. The goal is to create jobs and expand access to new and better market opportunities for people in rural America. “We’re redoubling our commitment to drive economic security and prosperity for people in rural America, so they can find opportunities to succeed right in the places they call home,” Torres Small says. “Strengthening our collaboration with the SBA helps us expand these opportunities for people to build brighter futures for generations to come.” The agencies are committing to increase investments in small and underserved communities to help grow the rural economy. They may also work together to provide joint trainings, technical assistance, and mentorship opportunities for rural small business owners and entrepreneurs. They may also help producers and small businesses identify ways to export their products around the world.

Dairy FARM Program Announces Excellence Award Winners

The National Dairy Farmers Assuring Responsible Management (FARM) Program announced the winners of the third annual FARM Excellence Awards. The FARM Program recognized three farms and one evaluator who go above and beyond industry standards through their commitment to innovation and improvement. The 2023 Excellence Award winners are Ingleside Dairy Farm of Virginia and Newmont Farm in Vermont, and Jim Kaufman of AMPI was named the Evaluator Award winner. The FARM Excellence Award for Environmental Stewardship was awarded to a Dairy Farmers of America farm that wished to remain unnamed. “The FARM Program would not be able to demonstrate the high quality of U.S. dairy without the dedication of our producers and evaluators,” says FARM Program Executive Director Emily Stepp. Winners were announced on November 14 at the Joint Annual Meeting of the National Dairy Promotion and Research Board, the National Milk Producers Federation, and the United Dairy Industry Association.

Montana Singer to Perform National Anthem at CattleCon24

The winner of the 11th annual NCBA National Anthem Contest is Anna Sponheim of Winfred, Montana. Sponheim will sing the “Star-Spangled Banner” at CattleCon24 in Orlando, Florida, during the Opening General Session. “I’m elated and grateful to win this contest,” says Sponheim. “I may have been chosen, but this is a win for Montana and everyone who supported me. I hope I can do them proud.” Sponheim grew up helping her family grow wheat, barley, hay, and peas, and raise Black Angus Cows near the Upper Missouri River Basin. After graduating from Montana State University with degrees in agricultural communications and writing, she joined the staff at the Montana Beef Council. “I count it a good day when I can talk to people about the beef industry, the nutrients beef provides, and the positive impact producers have on the environment,” Sponheim adds. For more information or to register, go to convention.ncba.org.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders for October are set for 7:30 a.m. CST Wednesday. At 9:30 a.m., the U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory report will be released, followed by natural gas storage at 10 a.m. and USDA's monthly cold storage report at 2 p.m. South American weather continues to get a lot of attention. U.S. grain and livestock futures have normal closes Wednesday, are closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and start again at 8:30 a.m. Friday morning for a short session, in which most contracts close at 12:05 p.m.

Weather

A system continues to push off the East Coast on Wednesday morning, where some areas of accumulating snow occurred in the Northeast. Another cold front is slipping south through the Canadian Prairies and will press through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest throughout the day. Behind it, precipitation will develop in the northern Rockies and adjacent areas of the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest, which will amount to accumulating snow tonight into Thanksgiving Day.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Traders will remain focused on South American weather and are straining for forecasts after this week. A report on U.S. existing home sales in October will be out at 9 a.m. CST. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting are set for 1 p.m.

Weather

A storm system continues to move through the eastern half of the country Tuesday, bringing widespread moderate-to-heavy showers for the Great Lakes down to the Southeast and points eastward. This is mostly occurring as rain, but there is some wintry mix over Michigan and parts of the Northeast will see a mix as well. Winds are a little breezy with this system, too.

Survey Reveals Importance of AM Radio

The agricultural industry has been one of the biggest supporters of the “AM for Every Vehicle Act” since its introduction. Radio Ink says the industry has spending power of more than $576 billion spread across millions of workers. MRI-Simmons, the leading study of American consumer attitudes and behaviors, explored the media choices of agricultural workers. Those workers are big audio consumers, with more than half qualifying as heavy listeners. They listen to audio 60 percent more than the internet and 51 percent more than television. At the other end of the media spectrum, close to half of all ag workers fall into the light user category for internet and TV and outnumber the heavy users. Eight in 10 ag workers favor AM/FM and tune into radio, ahead of streaming audio, podcasts, and satellite radio. The heavy audio usage is likely because of the fact that it’s an “everywhere” media with easy access.

Credit Conditions Soften with Farm Economy

Agricultural credit conditions in the Kansas City Fed’s Tenth District softened during the third quarter of 2023. Farm income and loan repayment rates were lower than a year ago for the second straight quarter. The moderation was more pronounced in areas hit hardest by drought, but more tempered in areas most concentrated in cattle production. Conditions have weakened slightly following two years of significant improvement that continued to support loan performance. Despite softening farm finances and substantially higher interest rates, agricultural real estate values in the region remained firm. The ag economy has softened in recent quarters alongside a moderation in commodity prices. Together with elevated production costs, a drop in the price of many key products during the past year has likely reduced farm income in 2023. Despite softening incomes with high-interest costs, ag loan performance has remained solid with ongoing support from strong finances during the past two years.

Irrigators Invited to Respond to Irrigation, Water Management Survey

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service mailed survey codes to a selected sample of irrigators across 50 states with an invitation to respond to the 2023 Irrigation and Water Management Survey. The survey is a special study with the 2022 Census of Agriculture and provides the only comprehensive dataset of irrigation activities and water use across American farms, ranches, and horticultural operations. Producer input will aid USDA’s efforts to promote efficient irrigation practices and long-term sustainability of water resources across the U.S. The survey will be mailed in phases, with paper questionnaires following in January. Producers only need to respond once, either online or by mail. All responses are due by February 15, 2024. “Water is arguably the most important resource for agriculture and horticulture operations,” says NASS Administrator Hubert Hamer. “This survey is an opportunity to provide data that will influence policy decisions and impact the industry for years.”

American Lamb Board Seats Two New Members

The USDA appointed five board members to the American Lamb Board who will contribute their expertise to advance the American Lamb industry. The board members begin their three-year terms in January 2024 and conclude in January 2027 and bring a wealth of experience and diverse perspectives to the industry. One new members is Steve Breeding of Seaford, Delaware, a producer with 100 or fewer head. Catherine Harper of Eaton, Colorado, is the other new member and a feeder with less than 5,000 head. “While there are a lot of sheep and lambs grown west of the Mississippi, there is also a lot on the east coast that people don’t always remember,” Breeding says. “I’m looking forward to collaborating with that group and putting the East Coast on the map.” Harper is a 26-year-old from Colorado who runs 3,500 sheep of her own in addition to the feedlot her family runs.

Challenge Ahead for Deere Patent Lawsuit Ruling

Kinze Manufacturing says while it can’t comment on ongoing litigation, the company did say that a jury in the Southern District of Iowa issued a verdict it doesn’t agree with. The jury found that the True Speed and Sure Speed systems infringe on certain Deere and Company patents. Kinze and Ag Leader say they “strongly disagree” with the verdict and intend to pursue their rights to challenge the verdict. An Iowa jury returned a verdict on October 30 that found Kinze and Ag Leader had infringed on several John Deere patents regarding True Speed/Sure Speed technology. The jury sided with Deere on four claims of patent infringement but found that Deere didn’t prove the infringements were willful. Additionally, the jury found that Kinze and Ag Leader’s countersuit did not prove any of Deere’s asserted claims were invalid. The jury said Deere was entitled to over $14 million in royalty compensation.

Survey Discovers Top Thanksgiving Leftovers

Pumpkin pie, turkey, gravy, sweet potatoes, and green bean casserole are some of the time-honored foods found at most Thanksgiving tables. But a survey shows those are also some of the top day-after sandwich items. A Harris Poll survey did a deep dive into America’s favorite Thanksgiving leftover sandwich. More than 94 percent of the respondents dine on a Thanksgiving leftover sandwich. Stapes like gravy (42 percent), ham (41 percent), and stuffing (39 percent) trailed turkey (81 percent) as the most popular items that belong on a Thanksgiving leftover sandwich. Pumpkin pie-filled sandwiches were a must-have ingredient in a leftover sandwich for 11 percent of the respondents. Americans also love adding hot dish leftovers into their post-Thanksgiving sandwiches, with Mac and Cheese (21 percent), Green Bean Casserole (14 percent), corn casserole (10 percent), and broccoli casserole (nine percent) reported by survey participants. White bread (20 percent) was the bread winner for sandwiches.

Top 5 Things to Watch - Give Thanks During a Shortened Week

1. Short markets week for Thanksgiving: As we gather stories for the week, families will gather across the country to give thanks for the year that was 2023. We hope it has been a positive year for our readers and their families, despite the many challenges the year brought. DTN's holiday coverage schedule will look like this: Wednesday markets open and close as normal, we'll have normal Closing Market Video and Six Factor strategies updates for DTN subscribers. Thursday, U.S. markets are closed, but Canadian markets are open so DTN Canadian Analyst Cliff Jamieson will still have some market updates. On Friday, grain and livestock futures markets open at 8:30 a.m.; we will carry Early Word Grains and Before the Bell grains comments that morning ahead of the opening. Most grain and livestock futures markets will close at 12:30 p.m. We will not have a Closing Markets video that afternoon, and the CFTC will not release updated position data until Nov. 27.

2. Reminder on Ag Summit: There is still plenty of time to sign up for the 2023 DTN Virtual Ag Summit, Dec. 5-6. We'll have sessions on a number of business-critical topics from interest rates, changing farmland values and global economics. 

3. Holiday cold snap: Rain systems during the Nov. 18 weekend will bring colder air in for the holiday and the following weekend. DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick notes that temperatures may reach even lower than current estimates. He adds the dip will likely hold through the first days of December, but then temperatures should be milder. El Nino usually means a mild December in the U.S., and Baranick says weather models have a very "El Nino look" to them, at least through mid month. That's not good news for winter wheat.

4. Eyes on South America: Traders continue to watch weather and crop conditions in South America, particularly Brazil. Conditions there are expected to be wetter in the south, drier in northern states. Argentina has seen inconsistent rainfall of late but is still in much better shape than 2022.

5. Economic reports to watch: Monday -- The index of U.S. leading indicators will be out at 9 a.m., followed by USDA's weekly report of grain export inspections at 10 a.m. and Crop Progress at 3 p.m. On Tuesday the report on U.S. existing home sales in October will be out at 9 a.m. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting will be revealed at 1 p.m. On Wednesday, U.S weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders for October come out at 7:30 a.m. At 9:30 a.m., the U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory report will be released, followed by natural gas storage at 10 a.m. and USDA's monthly cold storage report at 2 p.m. On Thursday, U.S. futures markets are closed for Thanksgiving. On the shortened market day Friday, we'll see USDA weekly export sales posted at 7:30 a.m.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will continue to keep watch over South American weather. The index of U.S. leading indicators will be out at 9 a.m. CST Monday, followed by USDA's weekly report of grain export inspections at 10 a.m. and Crop Progress at 3 p.m.

Weather

A storm system moved into the Plains on Sunday and will continue to develop and move east Monday. It will spread showers through much of the middle of the country today, including a risk of severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley where rain is most welcome.

USDA Announces Release Details for 2022 Census of Ag

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will release the 2022 Census of Agriculture data on February 13, 2024. NASS concluded the data collection during the summer with a preliminary national return rate of 61 percent. “On behalf of everyone at USDA, I’d like to thank the millions of producers who gave their time and effort to complete the 2022 Census of Agriculture,” says NASS Administrator Hubert Hamer. “Ag census data will inform decisions about policy, farm and conservation programs, rural development, research, technology development, ag education, and more during the next several years.” He also says the data will have a very real impact on producers, their farming operations, and communities. The ag census data will be available at nass.usda.gov and in the NASS searchable database. Like all NASS data, ag census data will only be available in aggregate form, ensuring that no individual operation or producer can be identified.

USDA Says Farm Share of Food Dollar Dipped Further in 2022

America’s farms received 14.9 cents per dollar spent on domestically produced food in 2022 as compensation for farm commodity production. This portion called the farmer’s share is a decrease of 0.3 cents from a revised 15.2 cents in 2021. The farm share covers operating expenses and input costs from non-farm establishments. The remaining portion of the U.S. food dollar is called the marketing share, which covers the costs of getting domestically produced food from farms to points of purchase. That includes the costs of transportation, processing, and selling to consumers. One of the factors behind the long-term downward trend in the farm share is an increasing proportion of food-away-from-home spending. Farms get a lower portion of dollars spent on food away from home because of the added costs of preparing and serving meals. The Economic Research Service uses input-output analysis to calculate the farm and marketing shares of a food dollar.

National Sorghum Producers Announce New Executive Director

National Sorghum Producers is pleased to announce the hire of Greg Ruehle as its new Executive Director. Ruehle brings a wealth of experience in agriculture and association management to his new role. His leadership comes at a pivotal time as NSP continues to grow and expand its impact on the sorghum industry. He was raised on a diversified grain and livestock farm in northwest Iowa. “We are thrilled to welcome Greg as the new NSP Executive Director,” says NSP CEO Tim Lust. “As our association continues to grow and with the expansion of the Partnerships for the Climate-Smart Commodities grant, we are stepping up expanded leadership in our organization.” He’s a past president and CEO for the Independent Professional Seed Association, the Nebraska Cattlemen, and ServiTech, Inc. “Sorghum’s time has definitely come,” Ruehle says. “From water conservation to reduced GHG emissions, sorghum has an expanding role to play, and I’m excited.”

Nominations Open for Animal Agriculture Water Quality Committee

The Environmental Protection Agency published a Federal Register Notice on November 16 establishing the Animal Agriculture Water Quality subcommittee. It’s under the umbrella of the Farm, Ranch, and Rural Communities Federal Advisory Committee. Nominations are open for members who want to serve on the AAWQ subcommittee. The primary subcommittee goal will be to develop recommendations that will inform the Agency’s decisions regarding how to improve the implementation of the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System’s (NPDES) Concentrated Animal Feeding Operation permitting program. That program is designed to reduce nutrients and other types of water pollutants more effectively from Animal Feeding Operations. EPA says it’s committed to working with stakeholders, advocates, communities, and industry to explore how to achieve water quality improvements related to CAFOs. The EPA is accepting subcommittee nominations until January 2, 2024. The agency welcomes nominations from a diverse range of qualified candidates for appointment to serve on the subcommittee.

USDA Scheduling 2024 Trade Missions

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack released the next steps in the Department’s efforts to bolster U.S. ag trade, including the agency’s planned trade missions for 2024. Ag exports totaled a record $196 billion in 2022 following a record-setting year in 2021. USDA plans to build on recent successes and highlight export opportunities in additional markets through a robust agribusiness trade mission schedule next year. USDA will lead trade missions to several markets, including Seoul, Korea; New Delhi, India; Vancouver, Canada; Bogota, Colombia; Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam; and Casablanca, Morocco. In addition, Vilsack announced a public comment period for the new Regional Agricultural Promotion Program. Combined, these efforts will help support further growth in U.S. agricultural exports and introduce high-quality U.S. agricultural products to new markets. “Market diversification is an important tool for maximizing growth opportunities for U.S. agriculture, as well as hedging the risk of market contraction,” Vilsack says.

WOTUS Lawsuits Restart in Fed Courts - States, Ag Groups Wage Fight Against Amended WOTUS Rule in Federal Courts

LINCOLN, Neb. (DTN) -- A total of 26 states and a group of agriculture interests have renewed the legal fight against the Biden administration's Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule, filing amended complaints in federal courts this week aimed at an amended rule finalized in September.

The renewed legal fight is playing out in federal courts in Texas and North Dakota.

After the Supreme Court ruled against EPA in Sackett v. EPA earlier this year, President Joe Biden's administration finalized an amended rule on Sept. 8, 2023, that removed the use of the significant-nexus test in making Clean Water Act (CWA)determinations -- without conducting a public comment period.

NO PUBLIC COMMENT PERIOD PROVIDED

The states argue in an amended complaint filed Monday in the U.S. District Court for the District of North Dakota, that EPA committed several violations of the Administrative Procedure Act, including not providing a public comment period before releasing the amended final rule.

The states are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Two other states, Texas and Idaho, have filed a separate amended complaint in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Texas.

The states also argue the amended rule violates the Clean Water Act and the Constitution, asking the court to vacate the rule and send it back to the EPA.

"The amended final rule, that is the final rule as modified by the conforming rule, remains riddled with problems," the states said in the complaint.

NO REASONABLE CONNECTION

The states said the rule includes waters with "no reasonable connection to navigable waters" and is arbitrary and capricious "because, among many things, it embraces vague standards with little justification and minimal consideration of costs."

The initial lawsuit filed in February asked the court to throw out the Biden rule, claiming the EPA and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers "toppled the cooperative federalism regime" by implementing a rule that is "overbroad and hopelessly vague."

That initial lawsuit resulted in an injunction against the rule's enforcement in the 24 states.

"Meanwhile, if the amended final rule is left in place, then ranchers, farmers, miners, homebuilders and other landowners across the country will struggle to undertake even the simplest of activities on their own property without fear of drawing the ire of the federal government," the states said in the new complaint.

"Landowning Americans of all stripes will thus be left with a choice: fight their way through an expensive and lengthy administrative process to obtain complex jurisdictional determinations and permits or face substantial civil and criminal penalties. The amended final rule's ambiguous environmental benefits do not justify any of this."

Two state-level agriculture groups in North Dakota, including the Cass County Farm Bureau and North Dakota Farm Bureau, that intervened in the case on behalf of the states also filed an amended complaint this week.

"The amended rule failed, however, to address numerous other significant flaws in the 2023 rule," the ag groups said in their complaint.

The ag groups pointed to one example of a problem in the amended rule.

WOTUS DEFINITION

The definition of WOTUS applies the relatively permanent standard to tributaries to traditional navigable waters, the territorial seas, interstate waters or impoundments of WOTUS, intrastate lakes and ponds, streams, or wetlands, and wetlands adjacent to and with a continuous surface connection to relatively permanent impoundments, and wetlands adjacent to tributaries that meet the relatively permanent standard.

Texas and Idaho, as well as a group of agriculture interest groups, have filed their amended complaints against EPA in lawsuits that were first filed in January 2023.

In an amended complaint filed by Texas and Idaho in the U.S. District Court for the District of Southern Texas in Galveston, the states allege the EPA promulgated the final amended rule without allowing public comment.

"They used the Sackett opinion to justify depriving the public and plaintiffs of notice and the opportunity to comment on a rule with nationwide importance," according to the Texas and Idaho complaint.

Leading up to the drafting of the Biden rule, ag groups and others asked the administration to hold off on the rulemaking until the Supreme Court ruled on the Sackett case.

"The amended 2023 rule maintains the ambiguity of the 2023 rule, leaving those wishing to identify the ambit of federal power over dry land or minor water features at the mercy of an expensive, vague and arbitrary analysis, lest they face a staggering criminal or civil penalty," the states said.

OTHER INTEREST GROUPS

Also filing an amended complaint in the Texas court was a group of 18 interest groups from the agriculture, oil and housing industries.

The American Farm Bureau Federation is joined in the amended lawsuit by the National Cattlemen's Beef Association, National Corn Growers Association, National Pork Producers Council, Matagorda County Farm Bureau, Public Lands Council, Texas Farm Bureau and U.S. Poultry and Egg Association, as well as the American Petroleum Institute.

They have asked the Texas court to declare the amended rule unlawful.

"The amended rule fails to remedy the vagueness concerns in the 2023 rule, and thus imposes impossible and unpredictable burdens on landowners, users and purchasers," the groups said.

"It requires them to assess not only their own land but also vast expanses of land beyond their own holdings, using multiple vaguely defined connections to potentially remote features, in an effort to determine if their land is regulated under the CWA. The consequence is a sweeping and unwieldy regulation that leaves the identification of jurisdictional waters so opaque, uncertain and all-encompassing that plaintiffs and their members and clients cannot determine whether and when the most basic activities undertaken on land will subject them to drastic criminal and civil penalties."

Friday Watch List

Markets

Traders remain highly interested in South American weather. A report on U.S. housing starts for October is due out at 7:30 a.m. CST Friday. USDA's monthly Cattle on Feed report for Nov. 1 is set for 2 p.m. Cattle traders have been anxious ever since the October report showed higher-than-expected placements. A 7% increase in placements from a year ago is anticipated in Friday's report.

Weather

A cold front continues to race through the central and eastern parts of the country Friday, providing some rain to the Eastern Corn Belt and sending temperatures back to normal briefly. We will see them perk up this weekend ahead of a pattern-changing system that is now off the coast of California.

Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Drops Slightly

This year’s Thanksgiving Day dinner won’t be as hard on the checkbook as it was in 2022. However, the meal will still reflect historically high costs. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 38th annual survey provides a snapshot of the average costs of this year’s holiday feast for 10, which is $61.17 or less than $6.20 per person. This is a 4.5 percent decrease from last year’s record-high of $64.05, but a Thanksgiving meal is still 25 percent higher than in 2019. The centerpiece of a traditional meal is turkey, which helped bring down the overall cost. A 16-pound turkey averages $27.35 or $1.71 per pound, down 5.6 percent from 2022. Cranberries took the sharpest drop as a 12-ounce bag averages $2.10, down 18 percent from last year. The cost for a classic meal was cheapest in the Midwest at $58.66. The Northeast was the most expensive at a cost of $88.43.

Groups Applaud House Passing Farm Bill Extension

Competitive Markets Action and the Organization for Competitive Markets applauded the House of Representatives for passing H.R. 6363, which included a one-year extension of the current farm bill. “We applaud Speaker Mike Johnson and House leadership for swiftly passing the bill by an overwhelming margin in the chamber closest to the American people,” says Marty Irby, president of Competitive Markets Action. “We are grateful to Ag Committee Chair Glenn ‘G.T.’ Thompson for securing an extension of the farm bill through the Fall of 2024.” They also say the maneuver offers ample time and opportunity to get the job done right. “We also hope House and Senate leaders will produce a new farm bill that brings clarity to the marketplace by preventing the nullification of countless state and local agriculture laws that some legislators are seeking to wipe out,” Irby adds. “We’re hoping to bring significant reform to USDA’s commodity checkoff programs.”

USDA Investing in Support for Beginning Farmers and Ranchers

USDA’s Deputy Secretary Xochitl (zo-CHEEL) Torres Small announced the agency is investing $27.9 million across 45 organizations that teach and train beginning farmers and ranchers, including veterans. “The next generation of farmers and ranchers hold the promise for the future of American agriculture and rural prosperity,” says Torres Small. “We’re providing our newest producers with the support they need to succeed and the educational resources to guide their operations on the path toward long-term sustainability and profitability.” The investment is part of the National Institute of Food and Agriculture’s Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development Program which supports a wide range of professional development activities and topics, such as managing capital, acquiring and managing land, and learning effective business and farming practices. As the average age of U.S. producers continues increasing, Torres Small says the agency is accelerating efforts to provide meaningful support to a large number of upcoming farmers and ranchers.

CoBank: Grain Storage Outlook Improves

The profit outlook for U.S. grain elevators storing corn and soybeans has improved significantly for the 2023-2024 marketing year with buy basis falling and carries returning to the futures markets. The world market is currently awash in grains, and CoBank says global supplies of corn and soybeans are abundant. The current challenge for grain elevators is simply getting ownership of bushels. Farmers have been reluctant to sell as corn and soybean prices are down sharply from their peaks early in the year. A new report from CoBank says the challenge of getting bushels should begin slowing in early 2024. The rising cost environment will likely compel farmers to begin selling in January, February, and March 2024 to generate cash ahead of next spring’s planting and operating expenses. “Higher land rents and borrowing costs combined with rising input prices will likely compel farmers to sell in 2024,” says Tanner Ehmke of CoBank.  

Dairy’s Long-Term Outlook is Bright

The future of America’s dairy farming is bright as global growth and American production capacity and innovation combine to create a “powerhouse.” Gregg Doud is the incoming president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation. “In terms of the protein world, dairy is a huge part of the future,” Doud says. “As a former Chief Agricultural Negotiator for the U.S. Trade Representative, I can tell you the opportunities are there for U.S. dairy’s taking with robust outreach and appeals to the world’s consumers.” Doud made his remarks during the NMPF’s annual meeting in Florida. During the past year, America’s dairy producers faced operating margins at their lowest since the federal dairy safety net was adopted in its current structure in 2014 as prices plummeted from record highs. Forecasts during a panel discussion showed an improving price outlook for next year, even as inflation continues to be a challenge for consumers.  

Dolcini Joins American Farmland Trust Board of Directors

Val Dolcini (Dole-CHEE-nee) was unanimously elected to the American Farmland Trust Board of Directors by the AFT members. Dolcini is the U.S. Head of Sustainability and Government Affairs for Syngenta and will support the members’ efforts to promote sound farming practices while protecting and keeping farmers on the land. “We are thrilled to have Val join AFT to help us grow to new heights in the future,” says AFT President and CEO John Piotti (Pee-AHT-tee). “Val’s diverse and extensive experience in agriculture and passion for our work will be an invaluable asset for AFT in the years to come.” Dolcini’s work spans over 25 years of agricultural policy and management experience in the state, federal, and nonprofit sectors. “Farming and agriculture have been my focus and passion throughout my entire career,” says Dolcini. “I specifically want to focus my time on the board to expand opportunities for new and beginning farmers.”

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report is due out at 7:30 a.m. CST Thursday, the same time as U.S. weekly jobless claims and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor. U.S. industrial production is set for 8:15 a.m., followed by the Energy Department's updated report on natural gas storage at 9:30 a.m. The International Grains Council issues its monthly report Thursday and, at 2 p.m., USDA will provide its Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Weather

A little system developed along a front near the Canadian border Wednesday night and will push that front quickly through the northern half of the Plains and Upper Midwest on Thursday. The front will not have much precipitation with it but will cause breezy winds and a drop in temperatures. The front will get more active east of the Mississippi River for Friday.

NFU Releases Farmer’s Share of Thanksgiving Food Dollar

The National Farmers Union released its Farmers’ Share of the Food Dollar Report for items typically served during the Thanksgiving holiday. These figures reflect how much family farmers earn compared to the amount consumers pay at the grocery store. Consumers are likely to see an increase when they shop for the holiday meal, but little of that increase will get passed on to American farmers and ranchers. An 11-pound turkey retails for $21.89, with the farmer’s share at 66 cents. A 12-ounce box of stuffing is $3.99, and the farmer gets nine cents. Sixteen-ounce frozen sweet corn costs $2.99, and the farmer gets 41 cents. Pumpkin pie filling is $1.79 a can, and farmers get 16 cents. A five-pound bag of mashed potatoes costs $3.99, and farmers get 64 cents. A two-pound boneless ham is $12.98, with the farmer receiving $1.32. Twelve-ounce cranberries are $2.99, and the farmer’s share is 29 cents.

Stabenow Calls for More Farm Bill Urgency

Debbie Stabenow, Senate Ag Committee Chair, is looking for more urgency from farm groups about getting a new farm bill in place. The Fence Post says Stabenow recalled farm bill negotiations dragging on during 2013 and says there was a “sense of urgency” in the agricultural community about getting it done. However, the Michigan Senator says she doesn’t get that same sense of urgency now. While an extension is considered important, she says it’s absolutely vital that Congress get a new farm bill written and passed in 2024. “I want to hear more of a sense of urgency from ag groups,” Stabenow told a group of reporters after a hearing. John Boozman (BOZE-man), ranking member from Arkansas, says he believes farm groups are “expressing urgency.” However, farm leaders know times are so different from 2018 and that “we don’t just need to do something, we need to do the right thing.”

November Oil Crops Outlook Increases Soybean Production, Stocks

This month, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service raised the 2023-2024 national average soybean yield to 49.9 bushels an acre in its Crop Production Report. That’s up from 49.6 bushels an acre in the previous report. This revision has increased the 2023-2024 soybean production forecast by 25 million bushels to 4.13 billion bushels. Higher yields in Wisconsin, Tennessee, Ohio, North Dakota, and South Dakota have contributed to the higher yield forecast. With soybean crush and exports unchanged this month, soybean ending stocks for the 2023-2024 marketing year are now forecast at 245 million bushels. The season-average soybean price forecast is unchanged this month at $12.90 a bushel. With the U.S. soybean supply forecast for 2023-2024 at 4.43 billion bushels, 25 million higher than last month’s forecast with unchanged demand, soybean ending stocks were raised to 245 million bushels. U.S. soybean oil production for the 2022-2023 marketing year is finalized at 26.2 billion pounds. 

CHS Foundations Awards $4.3 Million to National FFA Foundation

The CHS Foundation announced grants of $4.3 million to the National FFA Organization, continuing a partnership to support the next generation of agricultural leaders. “We are thrilled to continue this partnership with CHS,” says Molly Ball, president of the National FFA Foundation. “Throughout our partnership, CHS has been unwavering in its support and continues to see the potential leaders in each of our members and advisors.” The grants will help fund FFA programs in 17 states, provide scholarships for attending conferences and contests, and introduce students from all backgrounds to ag careers through the workforce development program. It will also support the National Association of Ag Educators in attracting ag teachers and building strong teaching programs. “CHS and its foundation are proud to make the largest gift in the foundation’s 75-year history to the National FFA,” says Megan Wolle, president of the CHS Foundation. “We’re connecting to the next generation of leaders.”

Paraguay Beef Imports Won’t Boost Tight U.S. Supplies

USDA’s decision to accept beef imports from Paraguay for the first time in 25 years will likely not change the overall volume of U.S. imports, even during tight supplies and high prices. U.S. meat importers tell Reuters that’s due to a quota on shipments. American beef prices set records this year because of herd contraction to its smallest level in decades. As a result, meat companies are relying on more imports to process enough ground beef to meet demand. Paraguay didn’t negotiate with the U.S. to sell beef under its own quota agreement. That means it has to compete with other countries in the same situation to fill a group tariff-rate quota. The quota for these countries, including Brazil, Ireland, Japan, and Namibia, is approximately 650,000 metric tons. Suppliers already filled that quota earlier this year. Suppliers face a steep 26 percent tax on the value of products shipped above the quota.

Beyond Meat Struggling to Stay Afloat

An industry analyst says Beyond Meat may need to reach into the financial markets next year to stay in business. Ag Funder News says the firm posted a $70.5 million net loss in the third quarter. Net revenues slid again at the plant-based meat company in Q3, dropping eight percent year-over-year and 26 percent versus the prior quarter. Beyond Meat did see positive free cash flow in the third quarter, but the company doesn’t expect to sustain it. Industry analysts are saying that the firm is now in “survival mode” and will need to tap the financial markets in 2024 to stay afloat. CEO Ethan Brown says the company anticipated a modest return to growth in the third quarter that did not occur. “We did see pockets of growth, especially in the EU, where we saw double-digit gains in net revenues,” Brown says. “But we are still disappointed with the overall results.”

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

At 7:30 a.m. CST Wednesday, the U.S. producer price index and retail sales reports for October will be released. At 9:30 a.m., the U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory report will be out with updated data after last week's absence, due to system upgrades. The National Oilseeds Processors Association will have an estimate of members' soybean crush later Wednesday morning. At 2 p.m., USDA will have new cost of production forecasts for 2023. U.S. President Joe Biden and China's President Xi Jinping are set to meet in San Francisco Wednesday and traders will be keenly watching any trade-related comments.

Weather

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to produce areas of showers in eastern sections on Wednesday. A cold front is also setting up along the Canadian border from Montana to North Dakota that will produce a band of showers there Wednesday night, mostly in the form of snow. Otherwise, the majority of the country will be dry and warm by mid-November standards.

Ag Committee Leaders Agree on One-Year Farm Bill Extension

Leaders of the House and Senate Agriculture Committees came to an agreement on extending the lifespan of the 2018 Farm Bill by one year. The agreement came with the release of a House Republican proposal funding USDA operations through January 19. A 32-page continuing resolution contained 17 pages on farm bill extension and provided some funding for small-ticket programs that had run out, such as feral swine eradication. Dairy subsidies would be extended through December 31, 2024, to avert a looming dairy cliff on January 1. Leaders from both ag committees say the extension “in no way” substitutes in place of a five-year farm bill. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson revealed a two-part funding package that would provide money for some federal operations, including USDA, for two months and through February 2 for the rest of government. The extension depends on House, Senate, and White House agreement on the CR.

FAO Predicts Decline International Foodstuffs Trade

The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization predicts a declining international trade in foodstuffs for multiple reasons. While the organization’s latest forecasts point to favorable production outlooks for most basic foodstuffs, global food production systems remain vulnerable to several risks. Those challenges include extreme weather events, rising geopolitical tensions, and policy changes that could potentially tip the delicate supply-demand balances and dampen prospects for international trade in food commodities and global food security. The global food import bill is forecast to reach a new high of $2 trillion in 2023. High-income and upper-middle-class countries are expected to lead the increase. Other challenges include the cost of shipping those foodstuffs. Dry bulk freight costs across the grains and oilseeds routes mostly edged higher during the six months leading up to October 2023 but remained well below last year’s levels. However, robust demand has led to a recent rebound in freight rates.

Hearing on Carbon-Capture Pipeline Ends in Iowa

Summit Carbon Solutions presented a request to Iowa regulators to build a $5.5 billion carbon capture pipeline. Local reports say Iowa regulators recently concluded a hearing on the subject. However, deciding whether the company should get a construction permit and eminent domain powers to get land for the pipeline could take many months. The Sierra Club’s Iowa Chapter opposes the project. Sierra’s attorney says regulators likely won’t issue a decision until March or April. That allows enough time needed to file legal documents and responses. Summit’s pipeline would also run through South Dakota and into Minnesota and Nebraska. The company says the pipeline is critical to helping ethanol remain marketable as the nation seeks to lower its greenhouse gas emissions. Iowa residents are concerned about safety and property rights. Summit says it has agreements in place with 75 percent of the affected landowners, and the project will exceed federal safety standards.

FFA, 4-H Members Admitted Free to NCBA Trade Show

The next generation of agricultural leaders are invited to attend the NCBA Trade Show at CattleCon24 for free on Friday, February 2. FFA and 4-H members can get that free admission on Next Gen Ag FFA & 4-H Day, which will include a variety of events and activities for youth and families. Courtesy of Culver’s, the first 250 FFA members to register will receive complimentary Friday NCBA trade show admission. Nationwide is providing complimentary Friday NCBA Trade Show admission to the first 250 4-H members who register. Trade Show attendees can explore more than eight acres of displays and exhibitors offering the latest advancements in equipment, technology, and feed supplements. To get the free Friday NCBA Trade Show registration, FFA members must use the code FFACULVERS, and 4-H members, 4HNW. A variety of other registration options are available. For more information and to register and reserve housing, go to convention.ncba.org.

U.S. Reducing Beef Exports as Herd Shrinks

The nation’s ranchers slashed the U.S. cattle herd to its lowest level in decades. As a result, the U.S. is importing record amounts of beef this year and exporting much less. The steep drop in cattle numbers has led to significantly higher beef prices. Reuters says those high prices make companies look to import cheaper beef and discourage American beef purchases by buyers like China, Japan, and Egypt. The USDA expects the U.S. to drop to fourth in the rankings for the largest beef and veal exporters, down from number two last year. America’s beef exports are projected to sink 14 percent from 2022 to three billion pounds, the lowest level since COVID slowed meat processing and international trading in 2020. USDA expects American beef production to decline further in 2024 due to tight cattle supplies, and beef exports are forecast to hit an eight-year low of 2.8 billion pounds.

Ag Export Values Dropped in FY 2023

Agricultural export values in fiscal year 2023 that ran through September 30 declined while imports narrowly increased. Agricultural product values from October 2022 through the end of September were reported to be $178.7 billion, down from $196.1 billion a year earlier. A USDA report last week said import values rose 0.6 percent to $195.4 billion. Corn exports were the second-biggest decliner behind only vegetable oils with the value falling 32 percent to $13.1 billion. Cotton fell 28 percent, wheat values were down 21 percent, and soybeans dropped two percent year-over-year. The agency says the volume of corn exports dropped 32 percent, wheat shipments slipped 14 percent, and soybeans declined seven percent. Mexico was the biggest buyer of U.S. corn by volume during the fiscal year, purchasing 16.5 million metric tons of the grain, a narrow drop compared to the previous year. China bought the most beans, and Mexico the most wheat.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Grain traders remain fixated on South American weather and the latest export sales news. The U.S. Labor Department's consumer price index for October will be out at 7:30 a.m. CST Tuesday, the only significant report of the day. Traders may become a little jumpy later this week, if no agreement is reached to avoid a government shutdown by the November 17 deadline.

Weather

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to produce showers near the coast for Tuesday. Elsewhere will be rather dry and warm in most areas.

September Pork Exports Steady, Beef Lower

September U.S. pork exports were slightly lower than a year ago but maintained a robust pace. USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation shows pork exports reached 221,140 metric tons, one percent less than last year, while export value dropped four percent to $643.7 million. For the first three quarters of this year, pork exports rose nine percent year-over-year to 2.13 million metric tons and climbed seven percent in value to almost $6 billion. “Pork exports achieving another $200 million month in Mexico is fantastic,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. Beef exports continued struggling compared to 2022 but showed increasing strength in Western Hemisphere markets. Beef exports totaled 98,757 metric tons, 15 percent below last year and the lowest total of 2023. Value fell 12 percent to $797.5 million. Exports were lower across the board in Asia but picked up momentum in Mexico, Canada, and other locations.

Farmers Union Supports Increased Poultry Transparency

National Farmers Union President Rob Larew supports the finalized “Transparency in Poultry Grower Contracting and Tournaments” rule from the USDA under the Packers and Stockyards Act. He says monopolies in agriculture have put the squeeze on farmers and consumers for far too long. “Poultry growers face an especially unfair contracting system that’s opaque and secretive,” Larew says. “This finalized rule issued last week will require poultry companies to be more honest in their dealings with growers.” He also calls this good news for family farmers and will bring strong rules to promote sorely needed transparency for livestock producers. The final poultry rule released last week is the first of several updates USDA wants to make to the Packers and Stockyards Act. USDA also announced efforts to increase competition and innovation in seeds, improvements to USDA meat procurement requirements, and the establishment of a new Chief Competition Officer position at USDA.

Injecting Carbon Into National Forests and Grasslands

The U.S. Forest Service proposed a change in regulations that would allow it to consider requests to inject carbon dioxide beneath the 193 million acres of national forests and grasslands. Currently, the Forest Service is barred from authorizing “exclusive and perpetual use and occupancy” of its land by outsiders, a prohibition that would apply to carbon storage because the gas would remain underground for hundreds of years. The proposed regulation would create an exemption for carbon capture and storage projects. If approved, the USDA agency could “authorize proposed carbon capture and storage on National Forest Service system lands where and if it’s deemed appropriate.” Public comments on the carbon injection idea will be accepted until January 2. The Forest Service says the proposed rule would harmonize carbon storage regulations with the Bureau of Land Management, the other major federal land manager. The BLM issued its carbon storage policy in July 2022.

NCBA Opposes Beef Imports from Paraguay

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association opposes the USDA’s decision to allow Paraguayan beef imports starting next month. NCBA has repeatedly raised concerns with USDA over Paraguay’s history of foot-and-mouth disease and the outdated information used to justify Paraguay’s access to the U.S. market. NCBA is concerned that USDA’s failure to use information from recent site visits in the risk assessment may pose a risk to the safety of the U.S. cattle herd. “USDA based their decision on a deeply flawed risk assessment that uses old data from site visits that were conducted more than nine years ago,” says NCBA Executive Director of Government Affairs Kent Bacus. “Paraguay has a history of FMD outbreaks, and it’s unclear if their inspection system can provide an equivalent level of safety for animal health to prevent possible FMD on U.S. soil.” He also says diplomacy shouldn’t be done on the backs of U.S. cattle producers.

Genetically Modified Seed Prices Rising Faster Than Non-GM

Prices paid for crop seed increased significantly faster than the prices farmers received for crop commodities between 1990 and 2020. During that period, the average prices farmers paid for all seed rose by 270 percent, while the crop commodity price index rose 56 percent. For crops planted predominantly with genetically modified (GM) seed, like corn soybeans, and cotton, those seed prices rose by an average of 463 percent between 1990 and 2020. During this period, GM seed prices peaked in 2014 at 639 percent above 1990 levels. Despite their higher cost, GM crop varieties have provided significant productivity gains for farmers, partly through higher yield, but also by lowering farm production costs. For example, GM traits for insect resistance reduce the need for pesticide applications. Similarly, GM traits for herbicide tolerance provide a substitute for mechanical tillage, thus reducing the cost of labor, machinery, and fuel previously used in controlling weeds. 

Corn, Soybean Export Sales Rise

USDA data shows that export sales of corn, soybeans, and wheat were all higher for the week ending on November 2. Corn sales to overseas buyers totaled 1.02 million metric tons. That’s 36 percent higher than the previous week and four percent higher than the prior four-week average. Mexico was the biggest buyer at 384,800 metric tons. Corn exports for the week totaled almost 825,000 tons, the highest in the marketing year so far. Soybean sales rose seven percent above the prior week to 1.08 million metric tons but was still eight percent lower than the four-week average. China was the top buyer at 692,400 metric tons. Soybean exports reached 2.24 million tons; 12 percent higher than the previous week. Wheat sales through November 2 totaled 354,300 tons, 29 percent above the prior week but still 26 percent below the four-week average. Wheat exports rose 34 percent to 134,300 tons.

Top 5 Things to Watch - Ag Summit Registration, Low River Levels and Active Markets

1. Ag Summit launch: Watch DTN pages and the November Progressive Farmer magazine for announcements on the 2023 DTN Virtual Ag Summit, December 5-6. We'll have sessions on a number of business-critical topics from changing farmland values to finances, interest rates and global economics. To register for the Summit, go here:

2. Southern rains won't fix low rivers. Warm weather may break some records this week, then cooler weather should bring scattered rains. But they're unlikely to significantly change low river levels in the Mississippi value, which we'll continue to track.

3. Markets swing on record estimate: Grain markets had mostly been watching South America crop conditions until the November WASDE report hit, with USDA's expectation of a new US average corn yield record of 174.9 bushels per acre, besting the 2016 number. We'll be watching what catches the trade's attention throughout the week. 

4. Dicamba ruling imminent: We reported on Friday that lawyers expect a new EPA ruling on dicamba use. Center for Biological Diversity, National Family Farm Coalition, Pesticide Action Network and the Center for Food Safety filed the lawsuit over dicamba's drift potential in December 2020. Sources tell DTN the goal has been to have new dicamba rules ahead of the 2024 season.

5. Economic reports to watch: On Monday the USDA weekly report of grain export inspections is set for 10 a.m., followed by a release of the federal budget for October at 1 p.m. and USDA's Crop Progress report at 3 p.m.

Tuesday features the U.S. Labor Department's consumer price index for October at 7:30 a.m.

Wednesday sees the U.S. producer price index and retail sales reports for October at 7:30 a.m. At 9:30 a.m. the U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory report will be out with updated data after last week's absence due to system upgrades. The National Oilseeds Processors Association will have an estimate of members' soybean crush later Wednesday morning, and at 2 p.m., USDA will have new cost of production forecasts for 2023.

Thursday starts with USDA's weekly export sales report at 7:30 a.m., the same time as U.S. weekly jobless claims and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor. U.S. industrial production is set for 8:15 a.m., followed by the Energy Department's report on natural gas storage at 9:30 a.m. At 2 p.m., USDA will have its Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Friday we'll watch U.S. housing starts report for October, due at 7:30 a.m. and USDA's monthly cattle on-feed report for November 1, set for 2 p.m.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will continue to keep watch over South American weather forecasts. USDA's weekly report of grain export inspections is set for 10 a.m. CST, followed by Crop Progress at 3 p.m. The U.S. Treasury releases the federal budget for October at 1 p.m.

Weather

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico will be bringing areas of showers near the coast on Monday. It will be drier elsewhere, but temperatures are largely above normal. Some breezy winds may occur in parts of the Plains, but nothing overly hazardous is expected.

Cattle Group Commends New Competition Initiative

The USDA released a package of rules and orders seeking to increase competition in the livestock industry. That package establishes a Chief Competition Officer at USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service. This position will be hired as a career rather than a political appointment. The officer will help elevate and institutionalize competition-related concerns at USDA. “Today’s announcement is another item crossed off a to-do list the administration is following to ensure a fairer, more competitive marketplace for U.S. cattle producers,” says U.S. Cattlemen’s Association President Justin Tupper. The package also updates AMS Institutional Meat Purchase Specifications that large volume buyers like federal, state, and local government agencies, schools, restaurants, hotels, and other food service users follow when buying meat products. Currently, meat and meat products do have to be of domestic origin, but the updated standards will specify that to mean only animals that are born, raised, and slaughtered in the U.S.

November WASDE Finds Higher Corn and Soybean Production

The USDA’s November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates show increased corn and soybean production compared to the previous report. The corn outlook is for larger production, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. Corn production is up 170 million bushels from last month on a 1.9-bushel increase in yield to 174.9 bushels an acre. Corn ending stocks are up 45 million bushels to 2.2 million. The season-average corn price is down 10 cents to $4.85 a bushel. The soybean outlook shows increased production and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.13 billion bushels, a 25 million increase on higher yields. Ending stocks rose to 245 million bushels. The season-average soybean price is unchanged at $12.90 per bushel. The wheat outlook calls for larger supplies and decreased domestic use. Ending stocks are projected to rise by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The season-average farm price dropped a dime to $7.20.

Commerce Decision on Imports Saves Farmers a Lot of Money

The U.S. Commerce Department recently lowered the duties placed on phosphate fertilizers imported from Morocco. The National Corn Growers Association says this move gives true savings to farmers and access to critical inputs that have been scarce during the last couple of years. Commerce lowered the rates from 19.97 percent to 2.12 percent. “Farmers were already facing rate hikes on inputs, and the duties were making the situation worse,” says NCGA President Harold Wolle. “This gives us more hope.” Assuming Commerce finalizes those duty rates and imports resume, farmers could see a reduction in added costs of $7 per acre on imported fertilizer from Morocco. NCGA’s analysis says many factors and dynamics contribute to changes in fertilizer markets and prices, but the imposed duty rates undoubtedly had an impact on the prices paid by farmers. “Our advocacy campaign to lower the duty rates wouldn’t have succeeded without our members,” Wolle says.

Initiative to Enhance Specialty Crop Industry’s Competitiveness

USDA Deputy Secretary Xochitl (zo-CHEEL) Torres Small announced the agency is starting a new effort to support producers in the U.S. Specialty Crops sector and increase its competitiveness. “We all count on America’s specialty crops for reliable access to nutritious, fresh foods,” Torres Small says. “As part of the new effort, USDA has compiled useful information on its programs and services that support the specialty crops industry into a Specialty Crops Resource Directory.” The directory will be a one-stop shop for the sector and contains a comprehensive snapshot of USDA’s resources and services for specialty crop producers and businesses in one convenient location. Also, USDA leadership will directly engage with the specialty crop industry and its producers during the next several months to get feedback on how the Department can better address gaps in services and meet the industry’s needs. A new webpage on the initiative is available at usda.gov.

USB Invests in Infrastructure to Give Growers an Edge

The United Soybean Board invests in many infrastructure projects that will help increase profits for soybean growers and the industry itself, which is undergoing significant changes. Through the soy checkoff, USB pursued feasibility studies leading to the dredging of the Mississippi River in Louisiana, a terminal expansion in Washington, and a reduced freight toll agreement on the St. Lawrence Seaway. “The goal of these investments is to give U.S. soybean growers a competitive edge in the global market,” says Belinda Burrier of the USB Board of Directors. “This helps us be more reliable in moving soybeans from our farm to the global customer.” While the checkoff isn’t allowed to invest directly in these projects, it does enable them by investing in feasibility and engineering studies. “It’s a win-win as we make $12.34 on every dollar invested,” Burrier adds. “I don’t know of too many investments with that kind of return.”

CHS Yearly Revenues Down Five Percent, Net Income Up 13 Percent

CHS Inc., one of the nation’s largest agribusinesses, reported a net income of $1.9 billion for the fiscal year ending on August 31 compared to $1.7 billion for fiscal year 2022. Key drivers included consolidated revenues of $45.6 billion for fiscal year 2023 compared to $47.8 billion for fiscal year 2022. In the company’s ag segment, robust meal and oil demand contributed to higher earnings in the company’s soybean and canola processing business. “The support of our member cooperatives and farmer-owners, dedication of our employees, exceptional operational performance, and favorable market conditions enabled us to achieve the strongest earnings in our history during fiscal year 2023,” says Jay Debertin, president and CEO of CHS Inc. As a result of those earnings, CHS intends to return $730 million in cash patronage and equity redemptions to its member cooperatives and farmer-owners in fiscal year 2024, demonstrating its “commitment to share profits” with producers.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Veterans Day will be observed Friday. U.S. government offices are closed, but markets and banks are open. University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for early November will be released at 9 a.m. CFTC data will not be released until Monday afternoon. Traders remain interested in South American weather and will watch for further export business. The deadline for a possible government shutdown is November 17, one week away.

Weather

Showers continue to develop near a front from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic and points southward. Cooler temperatures continue to move in behind the front for areas farther north.

USDA Predicts Record Corn Production

OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA increased U.S. 2023-24 corn production by 170 million bushels (mb) to 15.234 billion bushels (bb) -- a surprise that was beyond pre-report estimates. If that holds, that breaks the 2016 production record. USDA also increased soybean production by 25 mb to 4.129 bb.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Thursday's new-crop U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn and slightly bearish for soybeans and wheat. Hultman sees the world ending stocks estimates from USDA as bearish for corn and neutral for soybeans and wheat.

Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often as we will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from today's reports, including commentary from our analysts.

CORN

USDA raised the 2023-24 crop by bumping up the yield estimate 1.9 bushels per acre (bpa) to 174.9 bpa.

That drove up production 170 mb to 15.234 bb as a result. That breaks the production record of the 2016 crop, which came in at 15.148 bb.

USDA held pat on harvested acres at 87.1 million acres.

Ending stocks for the 2023-24 crop were increased 45 mb to 2.156 bb.

On the demand side, USDA increased Feed and Residual use 50 mb to 5.65 bb. Total 2023-24 Food, Seed and Industrial use at 6.740 bb, up 25 mb. Ethanol use was also increased 25 mb to 5.325 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.390 bb up 75 mb.

Exports for the new crop also were increased 50 mb to 2.075 bb.

The farmgate price for the 2023-24 crop was lowered 10 cents a bushel to $4.85 a bushel.

Globally, beginning stocks for the 2023-24 new crop were raised 1.12 million metric tons (mmt) to 299.22 mmt. Production globally was increased 6.32 mmt to 1,220.79 mmt. Global exports were bumped up 3.37 mmt to 199.62 mmt. Global ending stocks for the new crop are forecast at 314.99 mmt, up 2.59 mmt.

Ukraine's production was increased 1.5 mmt to 29.5 and Ukraine's exports were increased .5 mmt to 20 mmt.

Looking at global 2022-23 crop, Brazil's production was held at 137 mmt and exports were held pat at 57 mmt. Argentina's production was held at 34 mmt and Argentina's exports were held pat at 23 mmt.

SOYBEANS

USDA raised its national soybean yield forecast 49.9 bpa, up 0.3 bpa from last month's estimate. Harvest acres were left unchanged at 82.8 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast. Total production climbed to 4.13 bb. All estimates are within the range of pre-report estimates.

Domestic ending stocks for 2023-24 are now forecast at 245 mb, 25 mb higher than last month. The change reflects increased production forecasts, as USDA made only a minor change to the residual on the demand side of the balance sheet. The national average farm gate price was left unchanged at $12.90 per bushel.

Globally, ending stocks for the 2023-24 marketing year were 114.51 million metric tons, down 1.11 mmt from last month. The change is mostly due to smaller beginning stocks. USDA forecasts Brazilian farmers will harvest 163 mmt of soybeans, while Argentine growers will harvest 48 mmt.

Old-crop, 2022-23 world ending stocks, dropped to 100.31 mmt from last month's 101.9 mmt. USDA said the changes were due to back-year balance sheet revisions for China and Brazil. "China's beginning stocks are reduced on lower soybean imports for 2021-22 and 2022-23 and higher crush for 2022-23. Conversely, Brazil's beginning stocks are increased on a larger 2022-23 crop of 158 million tons due to higher-than-expected use to date," the report stated.

WHEAT

USDA pegged U.S. wheat production at 1.812 bb in November, unchanged from October's estimate.

USDA estimates ending stocks at 684 mb in November, an increase from October's estimate of 670 mb. U.S. wheat use is estimated at 1.86 bb, unchanged from October.

Wheat exports were set at 700 mb, unchanged from October. USDA set the farmgate price of wheat at $7.20, down from $7.30 last month.

Wheat world ending stocks were estimated at 258.69 mmt, an increase from 258.13 mmt in October.

USDA estimates global wheat production at 781.98 mmt, down from 783.43 mmt in October.

USDA estimates wheat production in Argentina at 15.0 mmt, down from the October estimate of 16.5. Brazil's production is estimated at 9.4 mmt. Wheat production in Australia was unchanged from last month's 24.5 mmt.

Wheat production in Russia was pegged at 90 mmt and Ukraine production was estimated at 22.5 mmt. Wheat exports from Russia were pegged at 50 mmt and 12 mmt in Ukraine.

USDA increased wheat imports 10 mb to 145 mb.

LIVESTOCK

Thursday's November WASDE report posted reduced overall beef and pork production levels for 2023, while 2024 projection were mixed from the previous month with a strong increase production projected in beef, while moderate to firm pork production losses were seen. This will continue to likely cause concern for beef producers and overall cattle prices in the near future.

Fourth-quarter beef production fell 55 million pounds, creating the expectation of annual production levels falling 44 million pounds from the last month estimate. The focus on increased production of 535 million pounds in 2024 was strongly attributed to gains in first quarter projections accounting for 235 million pounds. The confirmation of these numbers is adding additional bearish influence to overall market prices as traders are focusing on larger-than-expected beef production through most of 2024.

Beef price levels for the fourth quarter of 2023 were unchanged, which also left overall annual price projections unchanged at $177.30 per cwt. Price levels for 2024 were unchanged when it came to annual overall price projections, but first quarter 2024 prices were reduced by $2 per cwt from the previous month while second quarter prices fell $1 per cwt.

Beef Imports for 2023 increased by 36 million pounds from the previous month while total beef supplies fell 8 million pounds. Expected imports in 2024 increased 40 million pounds from last month's estimate, increasing overall 2024 supply issues by 590 million pounds.

Pork Production posted moderate to strong production losses from the previous month for both 2023 and 2024. Annual pork production is expected to fall 72 million pounds in 2023 from October's estimate, while annual pork production in 2024 is estimated to be reduced 165 million pounds from previous month's levels. This is expected to create some additional support through the lean hog complex long term, but there remains the need to sustain current values based on short term demand.

Hog prices were actually reduced on an annual level in both 2023 and 2024, with fourth quarter prices falling $3 per cwt in the latest report. First quarter 2024 hog prices were also reduced by $3 per cwt, and currently based on current hog numbers in the pipeline and the potential for this to put pressure on short term market levels.

Pork imports for 2023 increased 9 million pounds from the previous month estimate but were unchanged for 2024 from October levels. The small adjustments in imports are not expected to be a major focus following the moderate to firm overall reduction in pork production for both 2023 and 2024 from October levels.