U.S. Ag Groups React Negatively to WOTUS Changes

U.S. ag groups and elected officials all expressed disappointment with the revised Waters of the U.S. rule issued this week by the Environmental Protection Agency. “The agency failed to open the process to public comment, which would have been extremely valuable,” says National Corn Growers Association President Tom Haag (HAYG). American Soybean Association President Daryl Cates says, “These revisions are window dressing and leave in place much of the rule’s confusing and harmful foundations.” Corey Rosenbusch, president of The Fertilizer Institute, says they’re disappointed in the agency’s disregard for both the procedural need to invite public input for consideration and for May’s Supreme Court ruling. House Ag Committee Chair Glenn Thompson says EPA’s “sleight-of-hand” in circumventing the rulemaking process leaves the door open to agency abuse and uncertainty for U.S. agriculture. Darren Coppock (COP-uhck), president and CEO of the Ag Retailers Association, says this is a missed opportunity by the EPA.

Farm Futures Releases 2024 Planting Estimates

Farmers are gearing up for the 2023 harvest season with an eye already on next year’s crop. A Farm Futures August survey finds growers are expecting to plant 93.1 million acres of corn in 2024, down one percent from this year’s total acreage. Shrinking revenue prospects amid relatively high costs will likely tighten profit margins for the 2024 crop, giving alternative crops more opportunity for acreage next spring. Soybeans are one crop that farmers expect to plant more of next year. Farmers in the survey expect a two percent increase in soybean acres next spring at a total of 85.4 million acres. Wheat acres are also expected to expand. Winter wheat acres are forecast to be five percent higher at 38.7 million acres, and spring wheat acres will rise eight percent to 52.7 million acres. If those predictions prove true, this would be the largest wheat acreage planted since 2015.

Senators Show Opposition to EATS Act

In another show of opposition to the EATS Act, 30 senators sent a letter to Ag Committee leaders opposing a sweeping bill to nullify state agricultural laws called the EATS Act. The letter came a week after 172 House members signed a similar letter addressed to House Ag Committee leaders. Over 200 federal lawmakers spanning 35 states have publicly stated that neither the Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression Act nor anything similar should be a part of the upcoming farm bill. “It’s not one state that’s trying to foist its standards on the rest of the country,” says Sara Amundson, president of the Humane Society Legislative Fund. “It’s the NPPC that’s trying to force every state to accept the terms of any other state that chooses not to ensure humane safety standards for agricultural products within its borders.” Additionally, 577 veterinary professionals and 78 veterinary students signed letters opposing the EATS Act.

Grape Growers Have New Insurance Program Against Natural Hazards

The USDA is expanding crop insurance options with a new grapevine insurance program. It will provide coverage for the loss of grafted vines caused by natural perils like frost or fire. The new program will also complement the grape crop insurance program that covers the fruit growing on the vine. “We strive to offer the strongest risk management resources for our nation’s agricultural producers,” says Marcia Bunger, administration of the Risk Management Agency. ‘Sometimes that’s by improving an already existing product or creating a new product like this one to fill a gap.” It’s especially critical when you realize that the loss of fruit can affect a grower for a season, but losing a grapevine is a much costlier situation in terms of the money and time needed to reestablish a productive vine. The program pays losses when the vine is dead or so badly damaged that it won’t recover within a year.

Farm Incomes Flatten in the Second Quarter

The Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank’s Second Quarter ag credit conditions survey shows that after several strong years of growth, that stalled in 2023. Compared to earlier this year, farm incomes dropped slightly from April through June. Spending on capital equipment also dropped while farm household purchases increased. More than a third of ag bankers surveyed in the Ninth District said farm incomes decreased in the second quarter of this year compared to 2022. Thirty-nine percent of the lenders report that borrower liquidity had dropped in the past three months compared to last year. The Fed also says despite the falling incomes, lenders haven’t seen a boost in loan demand and the rate of loan repayment remained strong. Loan renewals and extensions also remained steady. Farmland values rose, as did cash rents. The third-quarter outlook calls for further farm income declines, though the overall financial conditions are expected to stay relatively stable.  

Unified Vision Driving Beef Checkoff Success

The Federation of State Beef Councils has supported an effective and coordinated state and national Checkoff partnership since 1963. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, a contractor to the Beef Checkoff and state beef councils, continues setting a positive course for beef. Recent program successes include Nutrition Research which serves as the foundation for all Beef Checkoff-funded initiatives. Nutrition research proves beef has a role in a healthy and sustainable diet. The National Beef Quality Audit is the foundational research providing an understanding of what quality means to the various industry sectors. The 2022 NBQA results showed that the industry is more efficiently producing a high-quality product that consumers want. One of the industry’s top focus areas across the supply chain remains food safety. Cow-calf producers, stockers, and feedyards implement Beef Quality Assurance practices on their operations to produce the highest-quality cattle and the best possible eating experience for consumers.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report, U.S. weekly jobless claims, U.S. personal incomes and consumer spending in August, the index of personal consumption expenditures for July and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor are all due out at 7:30 a.m. Thursday. The U.S. Energy Department's report on natural gas storage is set for 9:30 a.m.

Weather

With Idalia continuing to move further offshore on Thursday morning, it will be a largely quiet day across most of the U.S. Some isolated showers will be possible across the north and near the Gulf of Mexico, but that should be it. Though still milder in the Eastern Corn Belt, temperatures are starting to rise in the Western Corn Belt, though extreme heat is still a day or two away.

EPA and Army Amend “Waters of the United States” Rule

The Environmental Protection Agency and the Army Corps of Engineers Tuesday announced a final rule amending the 2023 definition of “waters of the United States.” The final rule intends to conform with the recent Supreme Court decision in Sackett v. EPA. With this action, the Army Corps of Engineers will resume issuing all jurisdictional determinations. The rule will take effect immediately. In response, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association Chief Counsel Mary-Thomas Hart says, “Today’s revised WOTUS definition is an important step toward bringing the EPA more in line with the Supreme Court's ruling." AFBF President Zippy Duvall says the EPA chose to continue government overreach and revise only a small slice of the rule that the Supreme Court rejected. Duvall adds, "We're pleased the vague and confusing 'significant nexus' test has been eliminated as the Supreme Court dictated. But EPA has ignored other clear concerns raised by the Justices, 26 states, and farmers across the country about the rule's failure to respect private property rights and the Clean Water Act."

US Cattlemen’s Association Welcomes LIP Update

The U.S. Cattlemen's Association applauds recent action by the Department of Agriculture to update the 2023 Livestock Indemnity Program payment rate. Late last week, USDA announced the payment rate for beef calves over 800 pounds will increase from $1244 per head to $1618, an increase of $374. The payment will apply retroactively to all qualifying losses since January 1, 2023. No action is necessary for retroactive payments, and producers will receive an additional payment if applicable. Payments will be queued up for current losses as early as next week. FSA acknowledged that some animals might have lost weight due to extreme weather conditions, and they are working on how to handle those cases. USCA President Justin Tupper says, "A loss in today's market has a significantly higher impact on a producer's bottom line, and the updated indemnity better reflects the value of that animal," while giving thanks to FSA for the update.

Study: US Soybean Industry Has $124 Billion Impact on the Economy

A new study from the National Oilseed Processors Association and the United Soybean Board highlights how the soybean industry impacts the U.S. economy. This 33-page study analyzes the soybean value chain’s impact on the U.S. economy based on data from crop years 2019/20 to 2021/22. The data shows the total economic impact from the U.S. soybean sector averaged $124 billion, including $85.7 billion from soy production and $9.8 billion from soybean processing. The U.S. soy sector accounts for approximately 0.6 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product. There are more than 500,000 individuals involved in soy farm decision-making. This includes 223,000 paid, full-time equivalent jobs and an additional 62,000 family members, beyond growers, who reside on farms and are integral to soybean farming operations. The total wage impact of the sector averaged $10 billion. USB Chair and Missouri farmer Meagan Kaiser says, “It’s reaffirming to see that the U.S. soybean industry has such a tremendous impact on U.S. farmers and the economy overall.”

Pivot Bio names Chris Abbott CEO

Pivot Bio Tuesday announced Chris Abbot as its Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately. As previously announced, Pivot Bio co-founder and current CEO Karsten Temme will become Chief Innovation Officer. Pivot Bio calls Abbot an industry leader and hands-on strategist who has focused his career on agriculture, water, sustainability, and technology. Pivot Bio Board Chairperson Roger Underwood says, "His commercial acumen, financial know-how, and strong relationships across the agriculture industry are exactly what the company needs at this critical juncture to further accelerate our substantial momentum." The company is also announcing another year of rapid growth, with revenue increasing over 60 percent in fiscal year 2023, surpassing $100 million for the first time. It was the fourth consecutive year of growth for revenue and acres. The company anticipates this momentum to continue in 2024. Pivot Bio also revealed plans to increase manufacturing and distribution across the country to support continued growth and expand customer service for growers.

Nearly Half of Potatoes Now go into Frozen Products

New Data from USDA’s Economic Research Service shows the majority of potatoes in the United States are now sold in processed forms such as frozen, chipped, dehydrated, or canned. With the introduction of french fries as a key side dish in quick-service restaurants, the share of potatoes that go into frozen products has risen in each decade since 1979. As a result, almost half of all potatoes going into food in the United States are now used to create frozen products—most of which are french fries. Meanwhile, the share of potatoes used as fresh table potatoes has declined decade by decade. Per capita frozen potato availability during the pandemic-influenced 2019–21 period, up eight percent from a decade earlier. According to industry data and USDA research in the early 2000s, about 90 percent of frozen french fries move through various food service venues. Quick-service restaurants alone account for about two-thirds of french fry usage.

Forest Service Announces Landscape Scale Investments

USDA’s Forest Service Tuesday announced it will invest $16.2 million to restore forests across tribal, state and private lands. The funded projects mark the first time the Forest Service will make Landscape Scale Restoration program grants directly available to federally recognized Tribes and Alaska Native Corporations to restore priority forest landscapes. The Forest Service selected 64 proposed projects for fiscal year 2023 to help Tribes, state agencies, local governments, and partners restore healthy, resilient, climate-adapted forests, including $3 million to restore landscapes on tribal lands. Forest Service Chief Randy Moore says, "These grants are critical for improving the nation's forests that provide a range of environmental, social, and economic benefits to the American people." The Landscape Scale Restoration program also supports the Forest Service's ten-year strategy to protect communities from catastrophic wildfires. The Forest Service reviewed project requests from federally recognized Tribes and Alaska Native Corporations, and selected 11 projects for funding.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

The U.S. Commerce Department will have an update of second-quarter U.S. GDP at 7:30 a.m., followed by the U.S. Energy Department's weekly energy inventories at 9:30 a.m. Traders continue to keep close watch over weather developments and any news regarding Ukraine. Visit DTN at this week's Farm Progress show in Decatur, Illinois, lot 360 on Third Street.

Weather

A rather quiet day is in store for most of the country outside of the far southeast. Hurricane Idalia, a Category 4 storm, will move into northern Florida this morning, across southeast Georgia and into the Atlantic later Wednesday and Wednesday night. Heavy rainfall, storm surge, and wind damage can be expected from northern Florida through the eastern Carolinas.

Vilsack Making Clean Energy Announcement at Farm Progress Show

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack will attend the 2023 Farm Progress Show Wednesday to announce a major investment in clean energy for rural Americans. Wednesday morning, Vilsack will join Representative Nikki Budzinski, an Illinois Democrat, at a meeting of her Agriculture Advisory Council. There, Vilsack will hear firsthand from producers and officials about the state of agriculture in Illinois. Later, Secretary Vilsack will deliver remarks at the main Farm Progress stage. USDA says Vilsack will announce a significant investment to help producers and small businesses in rural communities invest in clean energy systems, improve energy efficiency, lower energy costs, and generate income. Vilsack is scheduled to make the announcement at noon central time, which will be livestreamed at farmprogress.com. Meanwhile, Vilsack announced $808 million to help rural cooperatives and utilities build and improve electric infrastructure Monday. The funding will also help provide clean drinking water and sanitary wastewater systems in rural areas. The announcement will benefit nearly 480,000 people in 36 states and two U.S. territories.

USDA Updates Livestock Disaster Payment Rate

USDA’s Farm Service Agency updated the Livestock Indemnity Program payment rate recently. The update will support livestock producers in the Midwest who have lost cattle to the extreme heat and humidity experienced this summer. To help indemnify ranchers to reflect a trend towards higher cattle weights in feedlots, the 2023 Livestock Indemnity Program payment rate for beef calves over 800 pounds will increase from $1244 per head to $1618, an increase of $374. The program provides benefits to livestock owners and some contract growers for livestock deaths exceeding normal mortality from eligible adverse weather events, certain predation losses and reduced sales prices due to injury from an eligible loss. Indemnity payments are made at a rate of 75 percent of the prior year's average fair market value of the livestock. The updated payment rate is effective immediately and will be applied retroactively starting January 1, 2023, for all eligible causes of loss, including excessive heat, tornado, winter storms, and other qualifying adverse weather.

Farm Credit Farmer-Owned Cooperatives Merger Effective October 1

The merger of Farm Credit of New Mexico and American AgCredit Farm Credit cooperatives will be effective October 1, 2023. The merger will create one Farm Credit Association with enhanced marketplace stability, increased funding capacity, and better access to technology. The voting stockholders of Farm Credit of New Mexico re-voted for the proposed merger after a reconsideration process established by the Farm Credit Administration. American AgCredit CEO Curt Hudnutt says, "This merger makes us a better partner for our customers." Hudnutt will lead the merged American AgCredit, which will have more than 900 employees. The October 1, 2023, effective merger date is pending final Farm Credit Association approval. American AgCredit was chartered in 1916 as part of the nationwide Farm Credit System and is the nation's fourth-largest Farm Credit association. Farm Credit of New Mexico is the largest agricultural lender in New Mexico, a $2 billion cooperative specializing in agricultural lending and related services.

Dairy Checkoff Smoothie Program Expands

The results of a checkoff-initiated smoothie program pilot showed increased milk and yogurt consumption and will be offered to more schools this fall. Research shows fruit smoothies are more popular than energy drinks, flavored water, juices and soft drinks with Gen Z consumers. Dairy Management Inc. partnered with Chartwells K12, a food management company that serves more than two million meals in 4,500 schools daily, for the pilot last year. The results were encouraging enough for the company to make the smoothie program available to its entire suite of schools this year. General Mills joined the effort by providing culinary support and training, and Hubert, a food service equipment manufacturer, offered blenders and other materials at a discounted rate. Chefs from Chartwells and General Mills collaborated to produce 30 recipes that contain at least one of the daily recommended servings of dairy and fruit. A survey conducted after the pilot showed a very positive response from students, school food service staff and administrators.

U.S. Obesity Rates Grew During First Year of Pandemic

Regional obesity rates grew further apart during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service. From 2019 to March 2020, adult obesity rates ranged from a low of 36.7 percent in the West to the highest rate at 43.1 percent in the South, a 6.4-percentage point difference. The regional differences expanded to 7.2 percentage points during the first year of the pandemic, from a low of 37.4 percent in the Northeast to a high of 44.6 percent in the Midwest. The West had the lowest adult obesity rate before the pandemic but experienced the largest increase of any region during the first year, a 2.8-percentage point increase. The obesity rate increase in the West was nearly twice that in the South, which had the highest regional obesity rate before the pandemic. The Midwest had the second-highest rate before the pandemic, but increased nearly twice as much as the South, emerging as the region with the highest obesity rate as of March 2021.

Gas Lower, Diesel Higher, Ahead of Labor Day Weekend

For the first time in over a month, the nation's average price of gasoline declined, falling 4.0 cents from a week ago to $3.78 per gallon. The national average is up 5.8 cents from a month ago but 3.5 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average diesel price rose 3.3 cents in the last week to $4.33 per gallon, 70.7 cents lower than one year ago. However, GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan says, "The drop may be short-lived, as one of the nation's largest refineries partially shut last week after a fire at a storage tank, and as we see more tropical activity that could lead to further disruption." After rallying for seven straight weeks, oil prices have lost some of their luster, much of which can be blamed on continued weakness in China’s economy, and refinery issues in the U.S. limiting how much crude oil refineries will be able to process.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Statistics Canada will have crop estimates out at 8 a.m. CDT Tuesday, followed by an index of U.S. consumer confidence at 9:00 a.m. CDT. DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick and Lead Analyst Todd Hultman discuss weather and markets in the DTN building, Lot 360 at the Farm Progress Show in Decatur, Illinois, Tuesday through Thursday.

Weather

A small front moving through the Midwest may produce a few showers on Tuesday and a few more may be found in the High Plains, but it should be a rather quiet day. The Southeast will be more active with a front there as the region waits for Hurricane Idalia to build over the next 24 hours prior to landfall in the Big Bend of Florida on Wednesday.

Top 5 Things to Watch - New Equipment, Land Rental Rates Out This Week

OMAHA (DTN) -- Here are the Top 5 things the DTN Newsroom is tracking for the week of Aug. 27. 

1. From the Show: We'll have a steady stream of news on the latest equipment, seed, chemicals and other inputs from the Farm Progress Show in Decatur, Illinois. You can also hear the latest outlooks and chat with DTN journalists and experts in our building at Lot 360 on the show grounds. DTN's Ag Meteorologist John Baranick and Lead Analyst Todd Hultman will give their thoughts on the weather and markets at 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. CDT Tuesday and Wednesday, and at 10 a.m. on Thursday. We'll also have experts talk about the new Farmers for Soil Health signups which can earn you up to $50 per acre for cover crops and other soil health practices. DTN is a partner in this USDA-funded project.

2. Farm rental rates: USDA released its latest farmland cash rental rates by county; look for our story that digs into the data to spot the latest land trends.

3. Cooler weather, until it's not: The weekend's cold front, which knocked 15-20 degrees off of some areas of the country, won't bring a lot of rain to help crop recovery. Best rainfall chances are in the eastern Great Lakes states and the Central Plains, the latter thanks to remnants of Tropical Storm Harold. The break from the heat will last about a week, with models showing above-normal temperatures east of the Rockies as the calendar turns to September.

4. Crop harvest begins: Some of the first corn and soybean plots are beginning to come out. Watch for news on some of the early results. 

5. Weekly business reports: (Note: all times are CDT) Monday will see USDA's weekly export inspections at 10 a.m. and the Crop Progress report at 3 p.m. On Tuesday, we'll have the U.S. consumer confidence index numbers at 9 a.m. On Wednesday, the second-quarter U.S. Gross Domestic Product numbers hit at 7:30 a.m., followed by the U.S. Energy Department's weekly energy inventories at 9:30 a.m. Then Thursday is a busy one, with USDA's weekly export sales report, U.S. weekly jobless claims, U.S. personal incomes and consumer spending in August, the index of personal consumption expenditures for July and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor all due at 7:30 a.m. The U.S. Energy Department's report on natural gas storage is at 9:30 a.m. That Thursday is also the last day of the 2022-23 crop year for the corn and soybean complexes. On Friday, we'll see U.S. nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for August, due at 7:30 a.m. World manufacturing activity indices come in overnight and the U.S. index is due at 9 a.m. The latest Fats and Oils and Grain Crushings report from NASS is at 2 p.m.

Pro Farmer Releases National Crop Yield Estimates

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour recently wrapped up its 2023 expedition after traveling through corn and soybean fields in multiple states. After predicting yield estimates for each state, Pro Farmer puts all the numbers together to come up with its national harvest predictions for corn and soybeans. Pro Farmer predicts a national corn yield of 14.96 billion bushels and an average yield of 172 bushels per acre. The Pro Farmer national soybean yield prediction is 4.11 billion bushels and an average yield of 49.7 bushels an acre. The national estimates reflect Pro Farmer’s views on production and yields. They consider the data gathered and weather conditions during the Crop Tour, crop maturity, historical differences in Tour data versus USDA’s final yields, and areas outside those sampled on the tour. Based on August FSA-certified acreage data, Pro Farmer increased harvested corn acres by 675,000 from August. They didn’t change the soybean harvested acres.

RFA Blasts Panel Report on Ethanol and Emissions

The Renewable Fuels Association sent a letter to Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan blasting the agency’s Science Advisory Board. The RFA accuses the panel of making misleading and unfounded claims about corn ethanol’s impact on greenhouse gas emissions. In draft commentary sent to Regan, the board attempted to downplay the climate benefits of corn ethanol and recommended that the EPA conduct more extensive research on ethanol’s carbon footprint. “The overwhelming evidence of scientific analysis and data clearly show that corn starch ethanol significantly reduces GHG emissions relative to the gasoline it replaces,” says RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “We adamantly disagree with the SAB’s statement saying the ‘best available science’ suggests there are minimal, or no climate benefits related to substituting corn ethanol for gasoline.” Cooper also points out that no scientists with biofuels industry experience were invited to participate in the working group when putting the board together.

McConnell: Farm Bill Will Be Late

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says Congress will deliver a farm bill, but not likely in September. Roll Call says McConnell told the Kentucky Farm Bureau that Congress is running out of working days on the legislative calendar before the current law expires on September 30. McConnell is one of the highest-ranking members of Congress to admit the timeline for a new farm bill is shifting past September. When asked about reauthorizing the five-year farm bill, McConnell says, “We’ll figure it out.” While the current bill runs out on September 30, it looks like the new deadline for farm legislation will be December 31. On January 1, some American farm policies will revert to 1940s-era controls on production and costly price supports. If the farm bill does get pushed to 2024, a one-year extension becomes likely as it’s a presidential election year, and both parties will battle for Congressional control.

Weekly Drought Monitor Shows Spotty Improvement

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor saw improvements in parts of California and Nevada because of the impacts of Tropical Storm Hilary. The storm brought record-breaking rainfall accumulations and incidents of flash flooding and mudslides. In the Midwest, light precipitation accumulations fell in northern Wisconsin, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and northern Michigan. Drought conditions worsened in areas of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois, where both short and long-term precipitation deficits continue. Areas of Moderate Drought (D1) and Severe Drought (D2) were removed in Michigan. No changes were made this week in the Plains states, while some minor improvements took place in northwest Wyoming, and some conditions worsened in South Central Colorado. While some improvement took place in areas of Kansas and Nebraska, long-term dry signals remain in place through most of the region. In the South, drought-related conditions continued deteriorating as the hot and dry pattern continued across most of the region.

Record-Low Number of Federal Wage and Hour Investigations of Farms

The Economic Policy Institute says employers routinely underpay farm workers, among other workplace violations, but federal investigations into problems like these have dropped to an all-time low. The institute says that’s likely because of funding and staffing constraints. A new report says Congress must increase funding for labor standards enforcement to protect farmworkers. Since 2000, the Labor Department’s Wage and Hour Division has seen investigations drop by more than 60 percent. The division only has 810 investigators to protect all 165 million workers in the U.S. That means fewer than one percent of farm employers get investigated every year. From 2000 to 2022, H-2A visa program violations accounted for almost half of back wages and civil money penalties owed by farm employers. The EPI wants Congress to stop hobbling the Department of Labor and provide resources for strong investment in farm worker protections. They also want stiffer fines imposed on chronic offenders.

Applications Open for USDA Trade Mission to Angola

USDA Deputy Secretary Xochitl (so-CHEEL) Torres Small will lead the first-ever agribusiness trade mission to Angola from November 28-December 1. The Foreign Agricultural Service is accepting applications from U.S. exporters who want to take part. “When it comes to trade opportunity, Sub-Saharan Africa is both promising and often overlooked,” says Torres Small. “The USDA mission to Angola presents an incredible prospect for U.S. food and agricultural exporters to expand and explore new business opportunities.” Angola is one of the largest markets in Africa, and imports make up more than half of its food market. She says that makes it a perfect location for U.S. exporters to introduce more American-made products to African consumers. Angola has a population of almost 36 million people, many of whom are middle and high-income consumers, which means they’re looking for high-quality imported products. In 2022, U.S. food and ag exports to Angola totaled $236.8 million

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will be checking the latest forecasts for signs of rain and any new events regarding Ukraine. Monday will have its usual USDA reports of weekly export inspections at 10 a.m. CDT and Crop Progress at 3 p.m.

Weather

A front that crept through the country over the weekend has found itself somewhat stalled across the Southeast on Monday. Scattered showers are forecast there. Another front is dropping south out of Canada and will move through the Midwest Monday night into Tuesday with a few limited showers and a reinforcing snap of cooler air again. Eyes are on the tropics as Tropical Storm Idalia makes its way north into the Gulf of Mexico Monday night as well.

Drought Threatens Shipping on the Panama Canal

The Panama Canal is responsible for facilitating trade as 40 percent of worldwide cargo ship traffic uses it to move between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Marine Insight says almost two-thirds of the canal’s traffic load is either heading to or leaving the United States. The group managing the Canal restricted the number of ships passing through each day, as well as the amount of cargo they could carry. They made the decision because of the decreasing water supply caused by the ongoing drought due to El Niño conditions. That will mean fewer than 34 ships can move through the canal in both directions every day. That’s compared to the 34 to 42 it can handle at peak capacity. The new restrictions are in place until Monday, August 21, and could force companies to find alternative routes. The canal system depends on lakes whose levels are now close to their minimum points.

Dairy Checkoff Publishes 2022 Annual Report

Dairy Management, Inc., the planning and management organization running the national dairy checkoff program for America’s dairy farmers and importers posted its 2022 annual report. The report provides checkoff funders and other members of the dairy community with an audited financial report and highlights from 2022 focused on strategies and programs. Those include accelerating dairy sales growth and building trust in dairy foods and dairy farming with youth and other important consumer audiences. “Farmers and importers seek transparency in their checkoff strategies, and the 2022 annual report is a great way to deliver on those expectations,” says Marilyn Hershey, a Pennsylvania farmer and DMI chair. “Our checkoff team works daily to fulfill its goal of building sales and trust in dairy, and this report offers a comprehensive overview of how that plan delivered the results.” More information on the checkoff program’s budget summary and audited financial statements are available at usdairy.com.

Breakthrough in Fight Against African Swine Fever

Scientists have discovered a gene in pig DNA that’s needed by the deadly African Swine Fever virus to cause an infection. National Hog Farmer says this discovery could be a springboard into the development of pigs resistant to ASF, a swift-acting and severe condition that causes widespread illness and death, leading to steep financial losses for the world’s pork industry. The disease has killed more than 200 million pigs worldwide and is a major issue across Asia. It also has the potential to cause outbreaks in Europe and America. A team of researchers found that the gene is involved in a pig’s immune system and essential for replication of the ASF virus. This finding increases the possibility of changing the gene through gene editing to raise pigs that are resistant to the disease. It could improve how farmers manage the infection for which no vaccine or treatment is currently available.

NCGA President Testifies on the Value of Atrazine

National Corn Growers Association President Tom Haag (HAYG) testified Thursday before an Environmental Protection Agency panel on the importance of atrazine to corn farmers. He says NCGA commends the scientific and risk-based analysis and conclusions of the EPA in this reevaluation of the 11 atrazine studies identified by the 2012 Scientific Advisory Panel calling for further review to assess the effects on aquatic plant communities. “NCGA points to conclusions in the white paper that continue to affirm scientific evidence which supports the safe use of atrazine while protecting the vital aquatic plant communities and their related ecosystems,” he says. Haag also points out that management of weeds and their resistance to herbicides is a constant challenge for corn farmers. “Access to atrazine puts an important tool in the hands of U.S. corn growers to effectively adopt conservation practices while managing destructive weeds and delivering an abundant and quality crop,” he says.

Potato Exports Break Value and Volume Records

America’s potato exports reached record value and volume between July 2022 and June 2023. Export values rose 19 percent to $2.2 billion, and export volume rose almost four percent to 3.3 million metric tons. Those export values increased across all categories, including frozen, fresh, dehydrated, seed, and chips. Double-digit increases in value took place in all categories but seed potatoes. The increase in volume was led by dehydrated potatoes and chips, which rose 25 and 11 percent, respectively. During the year, Mexico became America’s largest potato export market for the first time, followed by Canada and Japan. The entire Mexican market opened to fresh U.S. potato exports in May 2022. The value of exported dehydrated potatoes took the biggest jump, rising 24 percent to reach $257 million. The top destinations for the category were Canada, Japan, and Mexico. Frozen potato exports rose 20 percent in value despite a decrease in volume.

NCGA Relaunches its Photo Contest

Fields-of-Corn.com, the official photo contest of the National Corn Growers Association is set to relaunch on September 1. Along with a new look that’s built to showcase the rich history of visual storytelling comes a more robust interface for entry. The reboot is just in time for the tenth annual photo contest. “The Fields-of-Corn.com site will house voting for the first time with higher reliability than we had through social media in the past,” says Graphic Communications Manager Beth Musgrove. The contest is open to everyone, and NCGA invites photographers to help tell the story of farming field corn in America. Through this contest, NCGA seeks high-resolution photos to document the rich history of growing corn, captured from seed to harvest as well as the tenacious and hard-working families that grow it. Entries will be accepted through the end of November. Photographers will compete for 26 awards over eight categories.  

Friday Watch List

Markets

University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment is due out at 9 a.m. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Friday. Knowing energy prices have climbed higher, he will likely mention another rate hike is on the way. Traders continue to pay attention to the latest weather forecasts and any news regarding Ukraine.

Weather

A pair of fronts across the Corn Belt will be drifting southward on Friday. The extreme heat has ended over northern areas, though it remains hot. The fronts will produce some isolated showers and thunderstorms for the next few days as they move into the South and Southeast. Temperatures will fall back down toward normal after the fronts pass through.

FMMO Hearing Heralds Farmer-Led Progress for Dairy

Wednesday marked the first day of a once-in-a-generation hearing on federal milk pricing. USDA’s Federal Milk Marketing Order hearing is underway as dairy producers make their case for changes to the pricing program. National Milk Producers Federation President and CEO Jim Mulhern says, “Thanks to the tireless efforts of dairy farmers and their cooperatives, this industry is poised for progress as Federal Milk Marketing Order modernization is now in sight.” The industry expects five to seven weeks of testimony and discussion on proposals to modernize the FMMO system. Following USDA’s initial presentations, the hearing will then launch into discussions of specific issues placed within the scope of the hearing. After the hearing’s conclusion, entities involved in the hearing then have a period of time to respond to the testimony, followed by a USDA draft decision, then more discussion, and ultimately a vote among dairy farmers on a final proposal, likely in the second half of 2024.

USDA Announces Funding to Support U.S. Specialty Crop Producers

USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service Wednesday announced $72.9 million in grants awarded to 55 states and territories through the Specialty Crop Block Grant Program. The grant program provides funding to enhance the competitiveness of specialty crops and support specialty crop growers through marketing, education, and research. Fiscal year 2023 funding is awarded to the departments of agriculture in the 50 states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. States are encouraged to sub-award funding to projects that address the needs of U.S. producers of fruits, vegetables, tree nuts, dried fruits, horticulture, and nursery crops. Funded projects include investing in food safety, specialty crop research, including research to focus on conservation and environmental outcomes, developing new and improved seed varieties and specialty crops, and pest and disease control. This year's awards mark over $1 billion invested in nearly 12,000 projects supporting the U.S. specialty crop industry.

Growth Energy Supports EPA Refinery Exemption Decisions

Growth Energy has filed a motion to intervene in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit, supporting the Environmental Protection Agency’s refinery exemptions decision. The motion is in response to the Hunt Refining Company's lawsuit seeking to reverse the EPA decision to reject unwarranted Small Refinery Exemptions. The motion is just the latest in a series of legal efforts Growth Energy has led to protect the integrity of the Renewable Fuel Standard, which requires oil refiners to blend a specific amount of biofuels into their fuel each year. Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor says, " EPA made the right call by following the data, which show there is no economic justification for exempting another oil company from its obligations under the RFS." Skor adds, "Past abuse of SREs destroyed demand for billions of gallons of biofuels, undermining our ability to hold down prices at the pump with clean, American renewable fuel.”

USDA Lowers Rice Trade Forecasts for 2023 and 2024

Global rice trade forecasts for both calendar year 2023 and 2024 are sharply lowered this month. USDA lowered the forecast in response to India's July 20 immediate ban on further sales of select rice varieties, resulting in urgent buying by some importers and rapid Asian price increases. The 2024 global export forecast is lowered 3.4 million tons to 52.9 million, with exports from India lowered 4.0 million tons to 19.0 million. Increased export forecasts for Brazil, Pakistan, Russia, and Vietnam partially offset the 2024 export reduction for India. For 2023, global exports are reduced 1.9 million tons to 53.8 million, with India's export forecast reduced 2.0 million tons to 20.5 million. Import forecasts are lowered for several major importers in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa for both 2023 and 2024. The 2023/24 production forecast in the U.S. rice market is raised 1 percent to 203.6 million hundredweight, based on a higher yield of 7,700 pounds per acre.

Emergency Allotments Central to SNAP Spending Growth During Pandemic

USDA’s Economic Research Service says emergency allotments were central to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program spending growth during the pandemic. SNAP participation and inflation-adjusted spending grew each year from fiscal year 2007–13 following the Great Recession and from FY 2019–21 following the COVID-19 pandemic. Average monthly participation increased faster, for longer, and by a greater amount following the Great Recession than during the pandemic, peaking at 47.6 million participants in FY 2013. Emergency allotments were issued as monthly supplements in response to the pandemic, bringing all recipients’ benefits to the maximum allowed each month beginning in 2020. In 2021, emergency allotments and other disaster supplements accounted for $39.2 billion, almost a third of total spending. Excluding spending on emergency allotments and other disaster supplements, total spending was only $81.6 billion in FY 2021, about $15 billion less than FY 2013 spending, adjusting for inflation. Emergency allotments ended in all states in early 2023.

USDA Publishes Child Nutrition Program Integrity Final Rule

USDA Wednesday published a final rule on program integrity to ensure that child nutrition programs are properly operated and managed to protect federal funds and taxpayer dollars. The final rule impacts the National School Lunch Program, School Breakfast Program, Special Milk Program, Summer Food Service Program, and Child and Adult Care Food Program. The final rule introduces targeted flexibilities in the National School Lunch and School Breakfast Programs that streamline monitoring requirements and lower administrative burdens for states. The rule also finalizes provisions in the Child and Adult Care Food Program, that have already been in place. The provisions streamline processes, provide additional resources, and increase accountability. The rule also allows for more efficient use of state agency resources by ensuring that organizations at risk of serious management issues receive more frequent oversight, and that financial transactions are appropriately reviewed. USDA improved the ability to address the rare instances of severe or repeated violations of program requirements in the child nutrition programs.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report, U.S. weekly jobless claims, U.S. durable goods orders and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor are all due out at 7:30 a.m. Thursday. The U.S. Energy Department's report on natural gas storage follows at 9:30 a.m. and traders remain attentive to the latest weather forecasts.

Weather

An upper-level dome of high pressure continues to cause extreme heat across the middle of the country for Thursday. The edges of the heat dome are becoming more active, however. We are seeing a slight shift southward of the front across its northern edge, though it will be a system moving through the Canadian Prairies that pushes it southward tonight and tomorrow. On the northeastern edge, heavy rainfall has developed over Ohio this morning. While that may peter out this morning, it will be an area for redevelopment later today

USDA Announces Forest Management Funding

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack Tuesday announced $150 million to help underserved and small acreage forest landowners connect to emerging voluntary climate markets. The markets can provide economic opportunities for landowners and incentivize improved forest health and management. The Forest Service Funding comes from the Inflation Reduction Act. Vilsack announced the funding opportunity at the Sustainable Forestry and African American Land Retention Conference. Forests are powerful tools in the fight against climate change, according to USDA, and emerging voluntary private-sector markets are now creating economic incentives to keep forests healthy and productive. However, high acreage requirements and prohibitive start-up costs have caused many small-acreage and underserved private forest owners to be left behind. Without financial incentives, these landowners may not have the resources to manage forests for long-term health and resilience. Without proper management, forests are more susceptible to wildfire, loss of habitat, and reduced water quality. The Forest Service anticipates future funding opportunities, including one specifically targeted to engage tribal nations.

Farmers for Free Trade Calls on Presidential Candidates to Prioritize Trade

Farmers for Free Trade this week implored all 2024 presidential candidates to prioritize new market access trade agreements to strengthen U.S. agriculture and decrease reliance on China. The organization also called on the presidential candidates to hold China accountable in a responsible manner that does not endanger U.S. food and agriculture's largest export market or threaten American farmers with new retaliatory tariffs. In a letter, the organization says, "The U.S. needs to again take the lead in negotiating new FTAs with other countries and work to strengthen and reform the rules-based multilateral trading system." Such agreements could protect American workers and the environment, help contain China's growing geopolitical influence, and open new export markets for our farmers by meaningfully reducing and eliminating tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers. The letter, which comes shortly before the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle, was sent to all presidential campaigns.

Youth Employment Trends in the Midwest

New research shows labor shortages present persistent challenges for regional economies but can also create opportunities for young workers. The research, published Tuesday on the University of Illinois farmdocDAILY website, shows youth employment can also help employers fill the part-time, low-wage, and often seasonal positions. Generation Z is relatively smaller than the millennial generation. As a result, fewer young people are working because there are simply fewer young people. However, every Midwestern state had a higher labor force participation rate among workers aged 16 to 19 than the nation. The highest levels of youth employment occur in relatively small, rural counties. Additionally, the food service and accommodation industry and the retail sector employ the most young workers. The research concludes that connecting young people to beneficial, rather than exploitative, work opportunities is a critical step in building and sustaining the local labor force, but it also directs them toward opportunities that might lead to a career.

New Grants to Support Wild Horse Initiatives

New grants from the Bureau of Land Management focus on managing and protecting wild horses and burros on public lands. The federal government awarded grants to six organizations and universities in Colorado, Oregon and Utah. The BLM manages and protects free-roaming wild horses and burros on public lands as required by the 1971 Wild Free-Roaming Horses and Burros Act. Most herds on public lands are in arid environments and lack natural predators that can control herd growth. The grants are part of efforts to work with community partners on projects that will benefit wild horses and burros and their habitat, including increasing the use of fertility control to slow herd growth. The latest population estimates found more than 82,000 wild horses and burros on BLM-managed public lands. Though down from a record high in 2020, this population is more than three times the level that is healthy for the herds and their habitat.

Cotton Board Elects New Officers

The Cotton Board recently elected a new slate of officers to serve one-year terms. During its Business Session, The Cotton Board elected Mark Nichols, a cotton producer from Altus, Oklahoma, to serve as Chairman of the Board. Nichols is the President of Jess Mark Nichols Farms, Inc. and President of Hess Farms, Inc., a fourth-generation farm he has managed since 1980. He farms with his brother-in-law, son, and son-in-law, growing irrigated cotton, wheat, and milo. Nichols commented on his new role, " During the upcoming year, we will continue to work closely with Cotton Incorporated to ensure our industry is moving forward and leading the way to increase the demand for and profitability of cotton." Other elected officers are Akiko Inui (ah-kee-koh in-you) of New York as Vice Chairman, Matt Famer of Texas as Secretary, and Rusty Darby of South Carolina as Treasurer. The Cotton Board is funded by the cotton checkoff, with efforts managed by Cotton Incorporated.

California Continues to Lead U.S. Peach Harvest

While Georgia is on many consumers' minds when it comes to fresh, juicy peaches, California is by far the largest peach-producing state in the United States. USDA’s Economic Research Service reports that last year, California's harvest yielded 475,000 tons of fruit, with South Carolina a distant second at 67,400 tons, and Georgia in third place with production at 24,800 tons. California has been the leading producer of freestone peaches for the fresh market and clingstone peaches for processing. However, the state's peach production has been trending lower for almost two decades, contributing to an overall drop in U.S. peach production. Total production in the United States in 2022 was estimated at 625,680 tons, eight percent smaller than the crop in 2019. In 2022, California’s peach harvest was about five percent smaller than in 2019 and nearly 27 percent lower than ten years earlier. USDA forecasts 2023 peach production 13 percent lower than last year.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

A report on U.S. new home sales in July is set for 9:00 a.m. CDT Wednesday, followed by the U.S. Energy Department's weekly energy inventories at 9:30 a.m. USDA's monthly cold storage report is due out at 2 p.m. Traders will continue to keep close watch over the latest weather forecasts and news regarding Ukraine.

Weather

A dome of heat continues to bake the middle of the country with records likely to be broken again today. The remnants of Tropical Storm Harold will continue through the Rio Grande Valley and into the Four Corners area today and across the north, a front may be active with showers, especially for the eastern Great Lakes. Otherwise, the heat comes with complete dryness as soil moisture continues to rapidly evaporate.

USDA Announces Nearly $700 Million in Rural Broadband Funding

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack Monday announced nearly $700 million in grants and loans as part of USDA’s ReConect Program. The funding will connect thousands of rural residents, farmers and business owners in 22 states to reliable, affordable high-speed internet. Vilsack says, “Keeping the people of rural America connected with reliable, high-speed internet brings new and innovative ideas to the rest of our country and creates good-paying jobs along the way.” The high-speed internet investments are part of the fourth funding round of the ReConnect Program. Many residents and businesses in rural areas would not have high-speed internet service without the ReConnect Program, as the program is a key part of the Administration’s Internet for All initiative to connect everyone in America to high-speed internet by 2030. Funding for this round of grants comes from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and includes $667 million of funded projects. A full list of funded projects is available on USDA's Rural Development website.

Farmland Partners: Strong Market Still Adding Value

Farmland values across the country climbed this year and hit record levels despite challenges like rising interest rates and extreme weather, according to data from the federal government. The Department of Agriculture found that U.S. farm real estate values, which includes all land and buildings on farms, increased 7.4 percent over the past year. Cropland values have grown 8.1 percent since 2022. Nationwide value of farm real estate and cropland also increased sharply from 2021 to 2022, 12.4 percent and 14.3 percent, respectively. Additional reports from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, confirm the USDA data. Farmland Partners Inc. President and CEO Luca Fabbri says, "These studies and similar reports coming from farm country show that the farmland market is still strong and adding value." Farmland Partners is an internally managed real estate that owns and/or manages nearly 186,000 acres in 20 states.

USTR Tai Visiting Indonesia, India

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai met with Indonesia's Minister of Trade Monday. Tai and Zulkifli Hasan discussed progress through the U.S.-ASEAN Trade and Investment Framework Arrangement Work Plan, including issues related to trade facilitation, standards and the digital economy. Ambassador Tai and Minister Hasan also discussed progress and updates on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. The ministers also discussed the U.S.-Indonesia Trade and Investment Framework Agreement. Ambassador Tai noted that the United States views this TIFA as an important mechanism for discussing bilateral trade issues. Later this week, Tai will travel to India for the G20 Trade & Investment Ministers' Meeting. Tai will also meet with business leaders and hold bilateral meetings with government officials. The meetings follow last week’s effort with Taiwan, as USR and Taiwan held an in-person negotiating round for the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade in Washington, D.C.

Healthy Watersheds, Healthy Communities Act Introduced

Lawmakers Monday introduced the Healthy Watersheds, Healthy Communities Act. Led by Colorado Democrat Micheal Benet, a bipartisan group of Senators introduced the bill that would improve the Natural Resources Conservation Service’s Watershed and Flood Prevention Operations program. The bipartisan legislation would streamline the planning and administration processes to enable more watershed-wide projects, shift decision-making to local NRCS staff, expand program eligibility, and allow federal funding to count toward state and local match requirements. The bill also prioritizes projects with multiple conservation and public benefits and makes drought resilience an explicit purpose of the program. With more frequent and severe drought and flooding, farmers and ranchers are using the program to mitigate the effects of these natural disasters through watershed improvement projects. However, the lawmakers say as demand for this program grows, inadequate funding and burdensome red tape keeps applicants from accessing its full benefits.

USDA Proposal to Strengthen Horse Protection Act

USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service seeks public input on a proposed rule to strengthen Horse Protection Act requirements. Announced last week, the proposed changes aim to eliminate horse soring, a cruel and inhumane practice that gives horse owners and trainers an unfair advantage in walking horse competitions. Walking horses are known for possessing a naturally high gait, but to be more successful in competitions, some owners and trainers use improper training methods to exaggerate a horse's gait. The methods may cause the horse to suffer from physical pain, distress, inflammation, or lameness while walking and moving. USDA's Jenny Lester-Moffitt says, "By strengthening the HPA regulations, we can all work to eliminate soring, which will improve the welfare of horses competing in these shows and level the competitive playing field.” You can submit comments by searching for the proposal at regulations.gov. APHIS will consider all comments received on or before October 20, 2023.

Registration Open for CattleCon24

Registration and housing are now open for CattleCon24, the cattle industry's largest event of the year. It's "Onward to Orlando," where cattle producers from across the country will gather, January 31-February 2, for business meetings, educational sessions, engaging speakers and family fun. Kristin Torres of the National Cattlemen's Beef Association says, "By opening registration early this year, we hope to give producers the ability to plan a family vacation in conjunction with CattleCon." Attendees can look forward to a variety of educational opportunities, including the CattleFax Outlook Seminar, weather and industry updates, grazing management workshop, sessions featuring guest speakers on the NCBA Trade Show floor and the 31st annual Cattlemen's College. Cattlemen's College is being reimagined in 2024 with classroom sessions and hands-on demonstrations throughout all three days of CattleCon. Also new are trade show cooking demos and a beef culinary tour. A variety of ticket packages are available, as well as payment plan options. Visit convention.ncba.org to learn more.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

A report on U.S. existing home sales for July is set for 9:90 a.m. CDT Tuesday, the only significant report of the day. Traders will continue to watch over the latest weather developments and keep track of news regarding Ukraine.

Weather

The most intense section of the heat wave starts on Tuesday with widespread 90s and triple-digit temperatures across the middle of the country, which will be in place through Thursday. The outer edges of the heat will continue to be active with showers in the west and far north and across Texas with Tropical Storm Harold moving through.

Farmland Values Resilient as Economy Moderates

Strength in farm real estate values persisted in the second quarter despite some moderation in the farm economy and higher interest rates. The Kansas City Federal Reserve says growth in farmland values eased from the surge in recent years but remained strong through the first half of 2023. Broad strength in farm finances during recent years throughout the district continued supporting agricultural credit conditions. Margins for many commodities have thinned in recent months alongside elevated production costs and softening prices. Farm loan performance remained historically strong through early 2023, and liquidity levels at many agricultural banks were well-positioned to meet growth in lending demand that could be on the horizon. Farm incomes moderated in all the participating Districts during the second quarter. Following almost two years of considerable strength, improvement in farm income waned according to Federal Reserve Surveys of Ag Credit Conditions. Loan demand remained subdued despite moderating incomes.

Ag Groups Support USTR in Mexican Trade Dispute

The U.S. Trade Representative requested a panel formation under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement over Mexico’s decision to ban imports of biotech corn used in human consumption. “Mexico’s decree runs counter to scientific findings and is in direct violation of USMCA, which negatively impacts American corn growers,” says NCGA President Tom Haag (HAYG). U.S. Grains Council President and CEO Ryan LeGrand says the U.S. and Mexico have had a long and productive relationship. “It’s our number one market for U.S. corn, and we support this action because it will likely be the quickest way to make sure the positive relationship continues in the future.” Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall says his group appreciates U.S. Trade Rep Katherine Tai for her continued commitment to holding Mexico to its agreements under USMCA. “America’s farmers are upholding their obligations by meeting demand while achieving important sustainability goals,” says Duvall. “Mexico must do the same thing.”

Most Cow-Calf Operations Remain Small

Most cow-calf operations in the U.S. remain relatively small and have fewer than 50 cows. USDA says at the other end of the spectrum, a few very large operations with more than 1,000 cows can be found. USDA data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service Ag Census indicates that between 1997 and 2017, most cow-calf operations remained small. In 2017, 54 percent of farms with beef cows had fewer than 20 animals, down slightly from 1997. However, during the two decades, the overall number of cow-calf operations in the U.S. dropped by 19 percent, while the average herd size on the remaining operations grew. These changes in farm numbers and herd sizes, while notable, haven’t been as significant as industry shifts in hog and dairy production. The combination of relatively lower cow-calf-specific startup costs and pasture as a primary source of feed has resulted in a variety of operation sizes.  

India’s Rice Export Ban Has Benefits and Challenges for U.S. Growers

America’s rice producers and exporters will benefit from India’s recent decision to ban exports of white rice as global demand for U.S. rice will likely rise. The higher world demand will temporarily lift prices for U.S. rice growers, and the industry is well-positioned to meet higher demand for exports. However, CoBank says the short-term benefits of India’s rice export ban will give way to the longer-term consequence of an oversupplied global market and severe price correction when the ban is eventually reversed. New research from CoBank’s Global Knowledge Exchange says higher global rice prices resulting from the export ban will push other countries to expand rice production, increasing global supplies. When India does lift its export ban, the country’s surplus of rice will get dumped on the world export market. That means world rice prices will overcorrect from the sudden boost in supplies. India’s government imposed the ban on July 20.

Weekly Drought Monitor Shows a Mix of Dry Weather and Recent Rainfall

The latest Weekly Drought Monitor showed similar conditions to last week. Above-normal temperatures and mostly-dry weather continued through parts of Texas and into the lower Mississippi Valley, where ongoing drought conditions continued deteriorating. Drought intensified in eastern Texas, Louisiana, and south-central Mississippi. Increasing short-term drought continued across Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Colorado. Frequent rounds of heavy rainfall occurred from the Northeast into the Central Mississippi Valley and into southern Missouri and the Upper Midwest. The continued wet conditions are improving drought across parts of the Corn Belt and much of the southern and central Midwest. Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois saw continuing improvement, with D1 removal from Ohio and Indiana. Farther north, drought continued to intensify across northern Wisconsin, North Dakota, Montana, and Washington. Eastern parts of the High Plains saw continued precipitation and below-normal temperatures. Kansas saw heavy precipitation continue from last week, further improving the east and central regions.  

Corn Export Sales Move Higher

Corn sales to overseas buyers for this current marketing year improved in the seven days ending on August 10. USDA data shows that soybean export sales declined during the same period last year. Exporters sold 233,500 metric tons of corn for delivery for 2022-2023, up 55 percent from the previous week and 16 percent above the prior four-week average. In its weekly Export Sales report, the agency says the top three buyers were all unknown destinations. Sales for delivery in the 2023-2024 marketing year that starts September 1 totaled 704,700 metric tons. Soybean sales were 77 percent lower week-over-week and down 42 percent from the four-week average to 93,600 metric tons for 2022-2023. Sales for delivery in 2023-2024 totaled over 1,400,000 metric tons. Wheat sales for the current marketing year dropped 37 percent from the previous week but were up three percent from the four-week average to 359,500 metric tons.  

Top 5 Things to Watch - Crop Rebound, Pipelines all on Tap This Week

OMAHA (DTN) -- Here are the Top 5 things the DTN Newsroom is tracking for the week of Aug. 20. Watch for coverage of these and other topics through the week on our subscription platforms as well as on DTNPF.com.

1. Rebound crop: There seems little letup on the ongoing discussion on how well the 2023 corn and soybean crops have rebounded following recent rains. We'll continue to have reports from the field as we track grain fill and pod set, leading up the USDA's next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report Sept. 12. If you participated in our DTN Summit Series event Aug. 15, you know Gro Intelligence added a bit to the 177-bushel-per-acre average estimate on corn revealed during our Digital Yield Tour the week prior. Will those yields hold through August? Stay tuned.

2. Weather: The wall of hot weather taking hold across the country will be the most-watched weather factor, but we're also tracking Hurricane Hilary as it moves onto the West Coast and potentially up into the Pacific Northwest and Idaho, and on into the Canadian Prairies. An early view on the hurricane can be found in our Ag Weather Forum blog; watch for updates in that space as well. .

3. Pipeline dreams: Tuesday marks the beginning of hearings on the Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline, which is proposed to cross Iowa and into North Dakota. Summit wants to pipe carbon dioxide to be injected into the Bakken geology formation. The Iowa Utilities Board will hold a hearing in Fort Dodge to discuss the pipeline's permit, including Summit's request for eminent domain rights on parcels of land that have not signed easements.

4. Broadband update: USDA scheduled an update on its investments in rural broadband, something we watch closely here at DTN. We should have results of the latest report early in the week.

5. Weekly reports of note: Monday we'll have USDA's weekly export inspections at 10 a.m. CDT, USA Crop Progress report comes in at 3 p.m. Tuesday morning we'll see U.S. existing home sales for July, with new home sales numbers out Wednesday. Wednesday also sees U.S. Energy Department's weekly energy inventories at 9:30 a.m. Then, Thursday features USDA weekly export sales report, U.S. weekly jobless claims, U.S. durable goods orders and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor, all due at 7:30 a.m. The U.S. Energy Department's report on natural gas storage at 9:30 a.m. On Friday is the University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment at 9 a.m.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will be checking the latest weather forecasts and any news regarding shipments of grain from Ukraine. USDA will have its usual weekly report of export inspections at 10 a.m. CDT, followed by the Crop Progress report at 3 p.m.

Weather

A dome of heat has parked itself across the middle of the country and will be turning it up on Monday with significantly high readings and near-records in some areas between the Rockies and Appalachians. Western states continue to deal with heavy rainfall from the remnants of Hurricane Hilary as it moves north through the region.

U.S. Establishes Dispute Panel on Mexico’s Biotech Measures

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai announced the United States is establishing a dispute settlement panel under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The U.S. is challenging Mexico’s measures on biotech corn. Mexico set rules in place during a decree in February that banned the use of biotech corn in tortillas or dough. The Mexican government also instructed its agencies to gradually substitute – i.e., ban – the use of biotech corn in all products for human consumption and for animal feed. Mexico’s measures aren’t based on science and undermine the market access it agreed to provide in the USMCA. “The United States has used the tools provided by the USMCA in attempting to resolve concerns with Mexico’s biotechnology measures,” says Tai. “We’re taking the next step in enforcing Mexico’s obligations under the agreement.” She also says Mexico’s approach to biotechnology isn’t based on science and runs counter to decades worth of evidence clearly demonstrating its safety.

Wheat Exports to Hit 52-Year Low

The U.S. Department of Agriculture says America’s all-wheat exports are projected to be 700 million bushels, the lowest level since the 1971-1972 marketing year. That’s a 25-million-bushel reduction from the prior month’s forecast. Despite an increase in Hard Red Winter Wheat production, exports are cut 25 million bushels to 165 million, the lowest level since by-class supply and utilization records began in 1972-1974. U.S. exports of HRW remain uncompetitive on the global market as shown by shipment and sales data. HRW exports in June were 10 million bushels, down from 19.2 million bushels in June 2022. Using data for the Foreign Agricultural Service’s Export Sales Reporting, all-wheat U.S. total commitments are about 6.4 million metric tons as of August 3, down 26 percent from the same point last year. It’s also 37 percent below the recent ten-year average at this point. HRW total commitments are 53 percent lower compared to last year.

Johnson Introduces Bill to Reinstate MCOOL

U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson (R-SD) introduced the Beef Origin Labeling Accountability Act to bring clarity and to reinstate mandatory country of origin labeling (MCOOL) for beef products. “Consumers don’t know where their beef comes from,” Johnson says. “It could be South Dakota, Brazil, or Canada. U.S. producers raise better beef, and they’re not getting credit for it.” The act will direct the U.S. Trade Representative and Ag Secretary to work together to determine a process of reinstating Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling for beef that is compliant with World Trade Organization rules. It also directs the U.S. Trade Rep to consult with the Canadian and Mexican governments to resolve the outstanding MCOOL trade disputes the two countries have open against the U.S. “This bill is a step in the right direction to get accurate labels back on these products to increase consumer confidence in American-made and grown products,” Johnson adds.

Investments to Growing Animal Feed Indoors

Forever Feed Technologies announced a multimillion-dollar investment from a renowned group of dairy and agricultural leaders to develop sustainable automated indoor-growing feed mills. The climate-controlled technology will greatly reduce water, land usage, and methane emissions in helping the industry reach its goal of being “climate neutral by 2050. The new investment funds will go to building the largest and most reliably controlled environmental mills, capable of feeding thousands of animals with fresh high-quality feed year-round. In turn, that helps producers to responsibly expand their operations to meet growing demands. Steve Lindsley, Forever Feed Technologies CEO, says, “We’re pleased to have assembled some of the most respected dairy and agricultural leaders in the country to participate in our funding round. Forever Feed is committed to building world class water-saving technology that will allow our customers to sustainably grow cattle feed 365 days a year anywhere in the world.” Information is available at foreverfeed.tech.

Wheat Organizations Support Recent Food for Peace Donation

Organizations representing Pacific Northwest wheat growers and the U.S. milling industry are celebrating the latest Food for Peace donation of 28,000 metric tons of soft white wheat. U.S. wheat farmers, U.S. Wheat Associates, the National Association of Wheat Growers, and the North American Millers’ Association have partnered with the U.S. international food assistance program for 70 years. Since 2020, America has donated more than one million metric tons of wheat and millions of dollars in food aid every year. The soft white wheat donation was grown in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. Wheat growers and the milling industry applauded the introduction of the American Farmers Feed the World Act last June. It would “put the food back into food aid” by restoring Food for Peace to its roots as a purely in-kind commodity donation program and require at least half of all Food for Peace funds be used to buy American commodities.

CattleCon24 Registration Opens Early

Registration and housing are now open for CattleCon24, the cattle industry’s largest event of the year. “It’s “Onward to Orlando,” where cattle producers from across the country will gather January 31-February 2, for business meetings, educational sessions, engaging speakers, and family fun. “By opening registration early this year, we hope to give producers the ability to plan a family vacation in conjunction with CattleCon,” says Kristin Torres, executive director of meetings and events with the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. “Orlando and the surrounding areas offer a variety of family-friendly activities, and we want attendees to take advantage of a great location.” Attendees can look forward to a variety of educational opportunities including the CattleFax Outlook Seminar, weather and industry updates, grazing management workshops, guest speakers on the trade show floor, and the 31st annual Cattlemen’s College. Leaders in sustainability, quality, and cattle feeding will get recognized during a stewardship program reception.

Friday Watch List

Markets

USDA's monthly cattle-on feed report for August 1 at 2 p.m. CDT is the only significant report of the day. Traders will keep up with the latest weather forecasts and news regarding Ukraine's efforts to ship grain, while under attack.

Weather

A hot ridge is moving into the Plains and bringing the heat on Friday. Cooler temperatures in the Midwest will only be temporary as the heat spreads over the weekend. Western areas are on the watch for Hurricane Hilary, which is expected to induce flooding rains for California and the Desert Southwest over the weekend into early next week.

Fertilizer Prices Continue Decline

Fertilizer prices have continued their more than year-long decline through the first two weeks of August 2023. The University of Illinois’ FarmdocDAILY website shows that on a per pound of nitrogen basis, urea and liquid nitrogen fertilizers have historically been priced at a premium of 35 to 40 percent above anhydrous ammonia. However, the premium narrowed in 2022 as the Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted global fertilizer markets. The premium on liquid, relative to anhydrous, has returned to more historical levels while the gap has continued to narrow between urea and anhydrous prices. This is attributed to continued expansion in global production capacity combined with lower demand prospects. The continued decline in fertilizer prices improves return and income prospects as we look ahead to soon-to-be-released crop budgets for 2024. If the low premium on urea relative to anhydrous extends into the coming months, it may make urea a more attractive nitrogen option for farmers in 2024.

US Welcomes WTO Report on China Trade Retaliations

The U.S. Trade Representative's Office welcomed a report from the World Trade Organization calling U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs justified for security reasons. The WTO report recognized that U.S. Section 232 actions on steel and aluminum are security measures, and that China illegally retaliated with sham "safeguard" tariffs. The panel rejected China's argument that the U.S. Section 232 actions are safeguard measures that may be "rebalanced" under WTO rules. However, officials from China called on the U.S. to lift the tariffs imposed on Chinese products following the report. China's commerce ministry claims the root cause lies in "the unilateralist and protectionist" nature of the United States. China maintains that its actions "are a legitimate move to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests." Tariffs imposed on American agricultural exports in retaliation for Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports led to an overall $27 billion reduction in U.S. ag exports from mid-2018 to the end of 2019.

USDA Releases August Oil Crops Outlook

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service published its first survey-based forecast of the 2023/24 U.S. soybean yield this month. At 50.9 bushels per acre, the current soybean yield forecast is down 1.1 bushels per acre from last month. The soybean crush forecast is unchanged at 2.3 billion bushels, supported by the greater demand for soybean oil and domestic soybean crush capacity expansion. A waning supply of canola oil and drought conditions in Canada and the United States have elevated prices for both old and new crop soybean oil. The average soybean oil price is forecast at 62.0 cents per pound, up 2.0 cents from last month but down from a revised 2022/23 price of 65.0 cents per pound. Soybean oil used for biofuels production supports strong domestic demand. In contrast, domestic soybean meal demand is lower than expected as livestock growth is slower than anticipated. USDA lowered the forecast for domestic soybean meal demand by .25 million short tons to 39.73 million short tons.

New Falling Number Test Prevents Wheat Contamination

As wheat harvesting season comes to an end, farmers brace for a potential threat to their crop that costs tens of millions of dollars each year. High levels of alpha-amylase (am-uh-laze) protein in wheat can lead to a low falling number score, a factor that determines the quality and price of wheat. If growers cannot detect wheat with a low falling number, the wheat may mix with sound wheat on farms, in grain elevators or during transport, compromising the entire bushel. The Foundation for Food & Agriculture Research is awarding a $835,800 Seeding Solutions grant to Washington State University to develop a faster, cheaper and more accurate test, to prevent mixing of low and high falling number wheat. The current falling number test, developed almost 70 years ago, is slow, expensive, exhibits high variability and does not assess alpha-amylase levels directly. In addition to developing new rapid tests, the grant also includes developing an early warning system to alert grain handlers to weather patterns likely to cause spikes in alpha-amylase.

Adult Obesity Rates Increased During First Year of COVID-19 Pandemic

New data from USDA’s Economic Research Service shows that adult obesity increased during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Broad efforts to contain COVID-19 included travel, work, and social restrictions. Such behavioral adjustments disrupted the dietary and activity patterns of U.S. adults. The percentage of adults with obesity was 40.7 percent in early 2020. One year later, the rate grew by 1.8 percentage points to 42.5 percent. There was not an immediate, substantial increase when the pandemic began. Rather, the obesity rate was statistically indistinguishable from the pre-pandemic prevalence during the first three months of the pandemic, March–May 2020, at 40.8 percent. The next three time periods saw statistically significant increases relative to the baseline pre-pandemic period. The total obesity rate increase from March 2020 to March 2021 was more than triple the average yearly growth rate of 0.5 percentage points in the preceding decade, 2011–2019.

Ag Lenders Donate to Hawaii Relief Efforts

Farm Credit Association American AgCredit, rural banking partner CoBank, and The Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, also known as Farmer Mac, are donating $40,000 to Maui Food Bank to help aid during the devastating wildfires that are wreaking havoc in Hawaii. AgCredit CEO Curt Hudnutt says, “When natural disasters impact the communities in which we live and work, we stand ready to support.” CoBank’s Brenda Frank adds, “The contribution to the Maui Food Bank is intended to address the immediate needs and reduce suffering of those impacted by the wildfires in Maui.” Farm Credit has had a presence in Hawaii for over 50 years. The association has been a strong provider of financial support to Hawaiian farmers and ranchers. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden says he intends to ensure people in the state have "everything they need" to recover. Biden plans to visit the area Monday. More than 100 deaths were reported, with 1,300 people still missing following the wildfires.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report, U.S. weekly jobless claims and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor are all due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Thursday. U.S. leading indicators for July are at 9 a.m. and the U.S. Energy Department's report on natural gas storage is at 9:30 a.m. USDA's Livestock, Dairy and Poultry outlook follows at 2 p.m.

Weather

A front is pushing a line of showers and thunderstorms through the Great Lakes on Thursday, some of which could be stronger. Temperatures behind the front are going to be briefly cool while heat in the West starts to bulge out into more of the Plains. Drier conditions are expected for most other areas except in the West, which is seeing monsoon showers increasing ahead of the potential flooding from Tropical Storm Hilary that will move in this weekend and early next week.

Thompson: Farm Bill Extension Likely

House Agriculture Chairman Glenn GT Thompson says, "We're probably going to need an extension," referring to the timing of the 2023 Farm Bill. At a listening session in Missouri this week, the Pennsylvania Republican acknowledged that "the clock is ticking," with the current farm bill set to expire at the end of the fiscal year, September 30. The event is one of many held by the committee that Thompson calls a "perpetual barnstorming tour" across rural America. The House Agriculture Committee is expected to release a draft version of the 2023 Farm Bill, possibly by the end of the month, according to Thompson. The chairman says, "There's a lot of competition" for time on the House floor next month, with appropriations bills still needing attention, as well. However, any continuing resolution would likely have a farm-bill extension included. Thompson adds, "I hope it's a very short extension," if one is needed.

Plant-Based Meat Alternatives Sales Declining

U.S. consumers remain interested in plant-based meat alternatives, but higher prices have led many prospective return consumers to taper off their purchases. Plant-based meats are often several dollars a pound higher than equivalent meat and poultry products. Beyond cost, lingering negative perceptions surrounding taste, value and versatility are also obstacles the category has yet to overcome. According to a new report from CoBank, the market for plant-based meats has likely reached a tipping point as the initial period of exceptional sales growth appears to be over. Plant-based meat sales peaked in 2020 when consumers had more discretionary income and were curious about broadening their food spend in the wake of pandemic-era food shortages. But fewer than half of Americans who tried the products at the time repeated their purchase. Sales of meat alternatives have fallen steadily since 2021 and more sharply over the last year. Volume sales dropped 20.9 percent for the 52-week period ending July 2, 2023.

USDA Offers Disaster Program Flexibilities for Flood-Impacted Producers

USDA’s Farm Service Agency and Risk Management Agency authorized flexibilities for disaster assistance programs and crop insurance to aid Northeast farmers impacted by flooding this year. USDA Undersecretary Robert Bonnie says, “The production and physical losses to flooding have devastated farmers and ranchers in the Northeast.” Bonnie visited the region this week, announcing that “USDA is committed to assisting these producers in their ongoing recovery efforts.” FSA has authorized policy exceptions in all flood-impacted counties in Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. The flexibilities apply to Farm Storage Facility Loans, the Livestock Indemnity Program, the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program, and other programs and efforts. Additionally, Producers experiencing financial hardships and finding themselves behind on their FSA Marketing Assistance Loan repayment should contact their USDA Service Center to discuss repayment concerns with FSA staff.

Variable Rate Technology Adoption Increasing

New data from USDA’s Economic Research Service shows variable rate technology adoption is on the rise. Farmers use variable rate technologies to control the amount of farm inputs—such as seed, fertilizer, and chemicals—applied as farm machinery moves across a field. Data from USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey show that initial adoption in the late 1990s and early 2000s was sluggish, remaining below ten percent of planted acres for several field crops. However, adoption rates for corn and cotton have increased markedly over the last decade. The adoption rate for corn stood at 37.4 percent of planted acres in 2016, up from 11.5 percent in 2005. Cotton acreage showed a similar increase, rising from 5.4 percent in 2007 to 22.7 percent in 2019. Recent adoption rates across other crops included 13.9 percent for sorghum in 2019, 18.8 percent of winter wheat planted acres in 2017, and 25.3 percent of soybean-planted acres in 2018.

USDA to Open Urban Service Center in Philadelphia

The Department of Agriculture is opening a new Urban Service Center in Philadelphia as part of a broader effort to support urban agriculture in Pennsylvania. NRCS Pennsylvania State Conservationist Denise Coleman says, “Every producer deserves USDA support in their own community, whether that community is urban or rural. The Urban Service Center in Philadelphia is one of 17 across the country. The Urban Service Centers are staffed by Natural Resources Conservation Service and Farm Service Agency employees. The facilities offer farm loan, conservation, disaster assistance and risk management programs. USDA works with agricultural producers through a network of more than 2,300 Service Centers nationwide, and the new Urban Service Centers will strengthen services to urban producers, according to the department. The Philadelphia Urban USDA Service Center will open the week of August 21, 2023. To learn more about Urban Service Centers, or to find a location near you, visit farmers.gov/urban.

Tractor Supply Company to Host National Farmers Market

Tractor Supply Company, the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the United States, will host a nationwide Farmers Market on Saturday, August 19 in all of the retailer's 2,100+ communities. The event will showcase the talent and products of local farmers, growers, craft makers, artisans and other producers. Customers and community members are invited to stop by, explore the wide range of offerings and support their neighbors by purchasing homemade and homegrown goods and products. The free event takes place outside Tractor Supply stores nationwide, with local vendors selling products like fresh fruit and vegetables, arts and crafts, accessories, specialty food and drink and more. Although registration for local sellers is closed, customers can contact their local store for additional information regarding partners and activities. As of July 1, 2023, the Company operated 2,181 Tractor Supply stores in 49 states, including 81 stores acquired from Orscheln Farm and Home in 2022 that will be rebranded to Tractor Supply by the end of 2023.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

A report on U.S. housing starts in July is set for 7:30 a.m. CDT Wednesday, followed by U.S. industrial production in July at 8:15 a.m. The Energy Department's weekly energy inventories will follow at 9:30 a.m. Traders will continue to check the latest weather forecasts and follow the news from Ukraine.

Weather

An overall quiet day is in store for most of the country. But a system going through Canada will send a cold front through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The front could produce some showers and thunderstorms and also bring some breezy winds as it works through.

APHIS Proposal to Strengthen Quarantine and Inspection Program

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service is seeking comments on a proposed rule to amend regulations governing its Agricultural Quarantine and Inspection program user fees. APHIS and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Customs and Border Protection jointly administer the program, ensuring that cargo and passenger baggage entering the country is inspected for plant pests and potential sources of animal diseases that could affect U.S. agriculture, trade and commerce. Foreign pests and diseases can devastate U.S. agriculture and the broader U.S. economy, and the AQI program is highly successful at preventing such disruptions. Fees for the AQI program were last updated in 2015. The outdated fee structure and recent changes in international travel and shipping mean that current fees do not generate enough revenue to cover the costs of the AQI services provided. APHIS will consider all comments received on or before October 10, 2023.  Go to www.regulations.gov to search for the proposal and comment. 

USDA Providing Additional Assistance to Loan Borrowers Facing Financial Risk

The Department of Agriculture is providing additional, automatic financial assistance for qualifying guaranteed Farm Loan Programs borrowers who are facing financial risk. The announcement is part of the $3.1 billion to help certain distressed farm loan borrowers provided through the Inflation Reduction Act. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says, "The financial assistance included in today's announcement will provide a fresh start for distressed borrowers with guaranteed farm loans and will give them the opportunity to generate long-term stability and success." Since the Inflation Reduction Act was signed in August 2022, USDA has provided approximately $1.15 billion in assistance to more than 20,000 distressed borrowers as a part of an ongoing effort to keep borrowers farming. The additional financial assistance will provide qualifying distressed guaranteed loan borrowers with financial assistance similar to what was already provided to distressed direct loan borrowers. Based on current analysis, the financial assistance will assist an estimated approximately 3,500 eligible borrowers, subject to change as payments are finalized.  

Income Spent on Food Increased 13% in 2022

U.S. consumers spent an average of 11.3 percent of their disposable personal income on food in 2022, a level not observed since the 1980s, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service. Disposable personal income is the amount of money consumers have left to spend or save after paying taxes. Consumers spent 5.62 percent of their incomes on food at supermarkets, convenience stores, warehouse club stores, supercenters, and other retailers in 2022 and 5.64 percent on food at restaurants, fast-food establishments, schools, and other places offering food away from home. In 2022, the share spent on total food had the sharpest annual increase, 12.7 percent. This followed an 8.2-percent decline, the sharpest annual drop in total food spending since 1967, during the first year of the Coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The recent volatility in spending was driven by consumers’ sudden drop in eating out at the beginning of the pandemic followed by a return to food-away-from-home purchases as pandemic-related restrictions and concerns eased.

Training Available to Help Producers Manage Phosphorus Losses

A series of online training modules is now freely available to farmers, interested in designing on-farm systems to remove phosphorus from field runoff or subsurface drainage. Available on the Internet, the modules comprise seven narrated videos, starting with a basic overview of the need for phosphorus removal systems, followed by how to design, build and install them, as well as how to properly dispose of or recycle the absorbent materials used to help capture the nutrient in drainage water and runoff. Phosphorus is a critical nutrient for optimal plant growth, health and yield. However, phosphorus that leaves agricultural fields in runoff or drainage water can accumulate in bodies of surface water, like rivers and lakes. Management practices and engineered systems that prevent phosphorus loss are vital to maintaining environmental quality. The modules can help users navigate their way through the process, as well as provide “lessons learned” from the field.

Graduate Students Encouraged to Apply for Beef Industry Scholarships

The National Cattlemen’s Foundation is accepting applications for the annual W.D. Farr Scholarship program. Established in 2007, the scholarship recognizes outstanding graduate students pursuing meat science and animal agriculture careers. Two $15,000 grants are awarded to graduate students who demonstrate superior achievement in academics and leadership and are committed to the advancement of the beef industry. Scholarship recipients recognize that the program not only benefits their work but also the entire industry. Graduate students must apply online by submitting a cover letter, goals and experience, a short essay, statement of belief in the industry, as well as a review of the applicant's graduate research and three letters of recommendation by September 22, 2023. The 2023 scholarship recipients will be recognized at CattleCon 2024. The scholarship honors the successful career of the late W.D. Farr, a third-generation Coloradan, pioneer rancher, statesman and banker known for his extraordinary vision. For more information and to apply for the scholarship, visit www.nationalcattlemensfoundation.org.

Gas and Diesel Prices Rise Again

For the fifth straight week, the nation's average price of gasoline increased, rising 2.5 cents from a week ago to $3.82 per gallon. The national average is up 29.1 cents from a month ago but 9.6 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average diesel price rose 12.3 cents last week and stands at $4.270 per gallon, 77.3 cents lower than one year ago. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan says prices "could climb slightly higher as we get closer to Labor Day, as oil prices remain under pressure from recent OPEC+ production cuts." Gasoline prices stand just over a dime away from rising back above their year-ago level—something that is possible by the closing summer holiday. In addition, the largest refinery in the Midwest moved up its seasonal maintenance to several weeks earlier than expected, causing a somewhat unexpected jump at the pump in the Great Lakes.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

A report on U.S. retail sales for July will be out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Tuesday, followed by the start of DTN's Ag Summit Series at 8:30 a.m. Soybean crush estimates from members of the National Soybean Processors Association will follow later Tuesday morning. Traders will keep a close watch on the latest weather forecasts and news from Ukraine.

Weather

A low-pressure center continues to spin around Michigan and will produce areas of showers there and over the far eastern Midwest on Tuesday, but the focus for showers will be along the East Coast. Quieter and relatively cooler air is flowing through more of the country behind it, though hotter temperatures in the Pacific Northwest are leaking out into the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains.

Top 5 Things to Watch - Virtual Events, Market Movers Highlight Coverage

OMAHA (DTN) -- Here are the Top 5 things the DTN Newsroom is tracking for the week of Aug. 13. Watch for coverage of these and other topics through the week on our subscription platforms as well as on DTNPF.com.

1. Ag Summit Series: Tuesday is our latest DTN Ag Summit Series virtual event. We'll touch on details behind the recent DTN Digital Yield Tour, but the morning is also full of discussions about what farmers are seeing in their fields, where fertilizer prices may be headed, plus weather and market outlooks from DTN's experts. The event starts at 8:30 a.m. CDT Tuesday, but it's important to register and get logged in before that morning to make sure you're fully connected and ready to go. We know you won't want to miss a minute of it. Your registration automatically allows you to download sessions you may have missed or to rewatch a presentation with others in your operation. 

2. Enjoy the mild conditions: Expect one more week of good crop weather across the Corn Belt. The system that moves through during the weekend and early in the week will be followed by another larger storm system for mid-to-late week. Both are expected to bring widespread precipitation, but maybe some severe weather and stronger background winds. Mild temperatures dominate the week, but they'll change Friday and especially during the Aug. 19 weekend as a ridge builds across the middle of the country and pumps up the heat for the end of August. That will shut down a lot of the precipitation that has favored the southern Corn Belt but could be more beneficial to areas across the north that have been drier.

3. Yield Tour review: We learned a lot about the rebound potential of crops, and how the have- and have-not rain systems have affected the overall crop conditions during our sixth annual DTN Digital Yield Tour powered by Gro Intelligence. DTN Farm Business Editor Katie Dehlinger will post a review of the week, and some of the interesting backstories that didn't make it into our official coverage. 

4. Livestock numbers: The Aug. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed lower beef production numbers and relatively strong packer demand. This Friday, we'll add to that look when the latest USDA Cattle on Feed numbers come out. Watch for numbers and analysis from DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart Friday afternoon.

5. Other reports this week: Monday sees USDA weekly export inspections at 10 a.m. CDT, and the USDA weekly Crop Progress report at 3 p.m., with analysis soon after. Tuesday is the release of U.S. retail sales for July at 7:30 a.m. CDT, another view of the economy, which seems to be stronger than many anticipated. Wednesday we'll see U.S. housing starts in July at 7:30 a.m., July U.S. industrial production in July at 8:15 a.m. and the Energy Department's weekly energy inventories at 9:30 a.m. On Thursday, USDA releases weekly export sales, the latest weekly jobless claim numbers are out, and U.S. Drought Monitor is updated, all at 7:30 a.m. Later in the morning are U.S. leading indicators for July, the U.S. Energy Department's natural gas storage report (all at 9:30 a.m.), and USDA's Livestock, Dairy and Poultry outlook at 2 p.m.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will be paying close attention to the latest weather data and forecasts. Any news from the Black Sea is also high on the list. USDA's weekly export inspections will be out at 10 a.m. CDT and USDA's Crop Progress report is set for 3 p.m.

Weather

A storm system that plowed through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest over the weekend continues eastward for Monday, spreading areas of showers and thunderstorms and heavy rain to portions of the Eastern Corn Belt. Some severe weather will be possible over eastern areas as well.

U.S. Pork Exports Outstanding in First Half of 2023

U.S. pork exports concluded an excellent first half of the year with another strong performance in June. Pork exports in June hit almost 246,000 metric tons, 12 percent higher than in 2022. Export value rose six percent to $691.4 million. Through the first half of 2023, exports were 14 percent above last year’s pace at 1.47 million metric tons and valued at $4.05 billion, 12 percent higher than in 2022. “While Mexico is the pacesetter for U.S. pork exports, what’s exciting is the industry is achieving broad-based growth internationally,” says USMEF president and CEO Dan Halstrom. While below last year’s record pace, June beef exports topped $900 million in value, pushing first-half export value to almost $5 billion. June’s beef exports totaled 115,107 metric tons, down 12 percent from a year ago and slightly below the May volume. Value was $905.5 million. First-half beef exports were 10 percent behind last year.