Vilsack Talks Biotech Corn in Mexico

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack met with Mexican President Andrés Manuel (man-WELL) López Obrador earlier this week. The leaders discussed a looming decree by the Mexican president that would ban imports of biotech corn into the country. In a statement following the meeting, Vilsack commented, "We must find a way forward soon and I emphasized in no uncertain terms that – absent an acceptable resolution of the issue – the U.S. Government would be forced to consider all options.” The options available include taking formal steps to enforce legal rights under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. National Corn Growers Association CEO Jon Doggett replied, “Today’s meeting shows that the Biden administration is listening to NCGA and American corn grower leaders and that Secretary Vilsack is willing to go to the mat for America’s farmers.” The Mexican President has promised to enact a decree that would end imports of corn grown using biotech and certain herbicides by 2024.

Industry Welcomes Biden Call to Congress on Potential Rail Strike

Agriculture groups welcome President Biden's call on Congress to avert a potential rail worker strike. Corey Rosenbusch of The Fertilizer Institute praised the action by Biden, adding, “Congress must act now to ensure that fertilizers and other critical materials and goods that U.S. consumers rely on every day get to where they are needed.” The Fertilizer Institute has been heavily engaged in efforts to avert a nationwide rail network shutdown and will continue to do so until the matter is resolved. The call from Biden followed a meeting with cabinet members on the issue. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack adds, “in this case – where the economic impact of a shutdown would hurt American agriculture and millions of other working people and families –Congress must use its powers to adopt this deal.” Vilsack joined President Biden in calling on Congress to quickly pass legislation adopting the Tentative Agreement between railroad workers and operators.

Removal of Trade Barriers Could Increase China’s Ag Imports

China imported more than $205 billion of agricultural products in 2021, including more than $37 billion from the United States. However, USDA Economic Research Service points out that trade barriers deterred China's imports from reaching even higher levels. China's import barriers create what are called "price wedges," in which domestic prices for agricultural commodities, including beef, corn, pork, and wheat, are higher than the world price. ERS recently found that removing price wedges would lead to increased agricultural imports for the four commodities over the next five to ten years. For corn and wheat, removing price wedges was estimated to increase China’s imports by 91 and 249 percent, respectively. Both of these commodities are subject to a tariff-rate quota which could constrain additional imports. Overall, the benefits of removing these trade barriers would be widespread, increasing sales for producers in the United States and other exporting countries and yielding lower food prices for China’s consumers.

Ag Organizations Call for McKalip and Taylor Nominations Votes

Agriculture groups through Farmers for Free Trade call on the Senate to confirm two key agricultural trade officials in the Biden administration. The coalition sent a letter to Senate leaders Tuesday calling for the confirmation of Doug McKalip as Chief Agricultural Negotiator for the U.S. Trade Representative's Office, and Alexis Taylor as USDA Undersecretary of Agriculture for Trade. The coalition urged the Senate to confirm the duo during the current lame-duck session. "Time is of the essence to confirm these nominees." the letter points out, adding, "American agriculture needs experienced leaders representing us in international negotiations." The letter also highlights the important role that exports and U.S. agriculture play on the entire economy, as 20 percent of American farm revenue comes from exports, and America's farmers, ranchers, food processors, and manufacturers rely on complex and highly integrated supply chains that stretch across international borders. The food and agriculture products we export support over 1,000,000 U.S. jobs.

Food System Investment Needed to Equip Farmers for Climate Change

A new report from the Farm Journal Foundation finds that increased U.S. investments in agricultural development and innovation are needed to make global food systems more resilient. While climate change impacts agriculture worldwide, its effects are "substantially more severe" in warm regions, including Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The report says that as much as 80 percent of the world's poor people, who predominantly work in agriculture, live in areas increasingly affected by climate change. The new report follows the United Nations' COP27 conference earlier this month, where leaders discussed the impact of climate change on the global food system and solutions to make agriculture more resilient. The report says investing in agricultural sustainability in developing countries is in the U.S. national interest, as it would prevent future food crises, reduce the need for emergency food aid, support stability in developing countries, and potentially reduce mass migration and civil unrest.

Noble Research Institute Releases Ranch Safety Guide

Agriculture is the seventh-most-hazardous industry in the United States, but ranch operators can take steps to make their working facilities and equipment safer for their staff and families. Recently Noble Research Institute and the U.S. Roundtable for Sustainable Beef created and published a new guide to help improve ranch safety. The guide titled Ranch Employee Safety: Working Cattle and Related Facilities and Equipment, takes ranchers through four stages of improved safety. The guide proposes stages of safety on the ranch, including identifying hazards and preventing worker injuries and illnesses. The third stage is preparation of ranch employees, followed by the final stage, monitoring the hazards and risks and the safety policies and procedures implemented. Additionally, the guide provides 30 pages of resources and tools ready to use on any operation. Ranch Employee Safety: Working Cattle and Related Facilities and Equipment is available for download at no cost www.noble.org.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Wednesday the ADP Employment report along with Real GDP numbers will be issued by the government. We will also be watching for any news of China regarding COVID, any new export sales and news on the potential railroad strike.

Weather

A cold front continues to sweep through the eastern portions of the country on Wednesday with bands of moderate rainfall. Some storms across the far southeast could be stronger today as well. Breezy winds are following behind the system and could make for some blowing snow in the areas that received it Tuesday. Also behind the front are a burst of some colder temperatures. They will not last long however, as warmth returns Thursday and Friday.

Farm Share of U.S. Food Dollar Reached Historic Low in 2021

U.S. farm establishments received 14.5 cents per dollar spent on domestically produced food in 2021—a decrease of 1.0 cent from a revised 15.5 cents in 2020. The figure is the lowest recorded farm share value in nearly three decades, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service. The remaining portion of the food dollar—known as the marketing share—covers the costs of getting domestically produced food from farms to points of purchase, including costs related to packaging, transporting, processing, and selling to consumers. One contributor to the 2021 decline in farm share was a shift to food-away-from-home spending. Farm establishments typically receive a smaller share of food-away-from-home spending because of the large amount of value added by outlets such as restaurants. As a result, the farm share generally decreases when food-away-from-home spending increases faster year-over-year than food-at-home spending. Food-away-from-home spending increased markedly in 2021 after a sharp decrease early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

USDA Kicks off Spain Trade Mission Delegation

The Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service Associate Administrator Clay Hamilton arrived Monday in Madrid to launch a USDA agribusiness trade mission to Spain. More than 70 participants, representing various sectors of U.S. food and agriculture, including businesses, trade associations, and state government, join this trade mission to explore export opportunities for U.S. agricultural products to Spain. Hamilton says, “Spanish consumers and food processors are increasingly interested in sustainably produced goods, which gives U.S. producers a marketing edge over other export suppliers.” Hamilton notes that USDA sees the demand for consumer-ready products steadily increasing, presenting an opportunity for U.S. exports. Trade mission participants will have an opportunity to connect with potential customers and learn the mechanics of exporting to Spain. In addition, importers from the neighboring Portugal have also been invited to participate, allowing the U.S. exporters to learn about opportunities in that country as well.

USDA Breaks Ground on New Soil Research Buildings in Auburn, Alabama

The Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Research Service broke ground Monday on a new research facility housing the National Soil Dynamics Laboratory. The facility at Auburn University's College of Agriculture will include two new buildings at Auburn University's Research Park. Dr. Simon Liu, ARS acting administrator, says, "With these new buildings and the continuing cooperation with our research partners at Auburn University, we believe that the National Soil Dynamics Laboratory will continue to have a substantial positive impact on agriculture all over the world." The National Soil Dynamics Laboratory and Auburn University scientists are considered national leaders in developing economical and environmentally sound crop management systems for production agriculture in the Southeast. The partners are leading the way in the new national focus on soil and water quality to maintain the productivity of our nation's farms, according to Dr. Allen Torbert, supervisory research soil scientist and research leader for the National Soil Dynamics Laboratory.

New Board Members Announced for FFA Foundation Sponsors’ Board

The National FFA Foundation announced its new chair for the Sponsors’ Board during the 95th National FFA Convention & Expo in Indianapolis this fall. David Hollinrake, global head of strategy and portfolio management for Syngenta, was named chair for the upcoming year. Hollinrake grew up on a farm in Illinois and has been involved with agriculture his entire life. Mary Snapp, vice president of strategic initiatives for Microsoft, was named chair-elect. Hollinrake says, "I am honored to play a role in helping create the next generation of leaders. The National FFA Sponsors' Board comprises top corporate executives who wish to support agricultural education and the National FFA Organization. During their service, sponsors' board members are integral to advising National FFA on opportunities to improve programs and secure funding for the continued development of the next generation of leaders who will change the world. Seven other new board members were announced. The members will serve on the board for three years.

Case IH, Farm Journal to Host Christmas Comeback in Kentucky

Case IH and Farm Journal will celebrate a "Christmas Comeback" for residents of Mayfield, Kentucky. The event comes as the one-year anniversary of a tornado that damaged the town and rural areas on December 10, 2021. Case IH and Farm Journal want the people of Mayfield to know that they haven't been forgotten. Residents and others impacted by the storm are invited to a "Christmas Comeback" celebration with friends, family and the ag community. The community will enjoy singing Christmas carols with American Idol finalist Alex Miller and other holiday activities. Traci Rodemeyer of Case IH says, "With great partners, generous volunteers and lots of teamwork, our goal is to bring light and smiles this holiday season." The "Christmas Comeback" is a holiday celebration, but also a celebration of the resilience and commitment of the people of Mayfield who continue to rebuild their community. The event is set for Friday, December 2, 2022, at H&R AgriPower in Mayfield from 5:00-7:30 p.m.

Gas and Diesel Prices Fall Over Thanksgiving

For the third straight week, the nation’s average gas price declined, falling 12.4 cents from a week ago to $3.52 per gallon. The national average is down 22.7 cents from a month ago and 14.1 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel fell 7.9 cents in the last week and stands at $5.20 per gallon. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan says, “All the metrics look very positive for motorists as this week is likely to continue seeing falling gasoline prices, with many areas falling to the lowest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.” The national average could fall under $3 per gallon by Christmas, according to De Haan. The bears have run rampant through oil markets, with prices continuing to come under heavy selling pressure as China sees protests for its zero-Covid policies, shutdowns of major cities, and U.S. demand facing seasonal pressure. U.S. retail gasoline demand fell last five percent as motorists pre-filled up and celebrated Thanksgiving.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

An index of U.S. consumer confidence for November is the only significant report on Tuesday's docket, due out at 9 a.m. CDT. Traders will continue to monitor the latest weather forecasts, check for a possible export sales announcement at 8 a.m. and watch for any other market-impacting news, including rumors about Sunday's OPEC meeting. December grain futures reach first notice day on Wednesday.

Weather

A cold front moving across the middle of the country early Tuesday is forming a low-pressure center along it, increasing the intensity of the system as it moves east throughout the day. Snow is forming behind the front and could be moderate to locally heavy from Nebraska up into Wisconsin. Severe storms will occur across the Delta and Southeast later today, with potential for long-duration tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and large hail. A burst of colder air is flowing in behind the front as well.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will look over the latest weather forecasts and news from Ukraine. Monday morning's weekly report of export inspections is expected to show another week of active soybean movement at 10 a.m. CDT, followed by the final Crop Progress report of the year at 3 p.m.

Weather

A briefly quiet weather day is expected Monday. A cold front is moving through the Northern Plains, but precipitation with the front is mostly located in the Canadian Prairies. The front will get more active tonight as snow develops in a band across southeast Wyoming, northeast Colorado, and Nebraska where moderate accumulations are expected. The rest of the country is rather dry and mild.

Farmer Share of Thanksgiving Food Dollar Stays Low in 2022

National Farmers Union President Rob Larew says the farmers’ share of the Thanksgiving food dollar continues to stay low. “Corporate profits and consumer food costs continue to go up and up, but the farmers’ share of the food dollar is still low,” Larew says. “Thanksgiving is a time of family and community, but thanks to price gouging by corporate monopolies in the food system, the holiday meal is getting increasingly difficult to afford.” The NFU says the retail price of turkey averages $1.99 a pound, and the farmers’ share is six cents per pound. Two pounds of boneless ham retails for $12.98, with the farmers’ share at one dollar. Even though consumers are paying more for food this year, almost none of that increase is getting passed on to America’s family farmers and ranchers. Mega-consolidation in the food sector has made supply chains uncompetitive and resulted in farmers being underpaid.

Groups Express Support for Year-Round E15

A broad coalition of energy and agriculture organizations wrote a letter to Congress asking them to adopt legislation that would resolve inconsistent fuel volatility regulations. Specifically, the groups expressed support for legislation that would result in equal regulatory treatment for all gasoline blends containing ten percent ethanol or more, including gasoline with a 15 percent blend of ethanol. Such legislation would permanently remove the regulatory barrier that has historically made it extremely difficult for retailers to offer E15 in the summer. “Our groups have come together for the first time in history to support legislation that will permanently resolve the issue,” the letter says. “By ensuring uniformity across the nation’s fuel supply chain, that will provide more flexibility and result in more consistent outcomes than a state-by-state regulatory landscape.” Without the fix, the groups see gasoline marketplace uncertainty and political disputes over E15 that will continue to resurface every summer.

Farm Loan Interest Rates Rise Sharply

Farm loan interest rates increased sharply during the third quarter. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City says despite the high borrowing costs, farm real estate values continued higher. However, the rate of increase slowed in the quarter. Following consistently higher increases earlier in 2022, the value of farmland in most Districts grew at a slightly slower pace during the third quarter. Farm income and credit conditions also remained strong, but the improvement was more limited. With higher production expenses, broad inflation, and higher financing cost, growth in household spending by farm borrowers began to outpace capital spending more noticeably. Strong farm finances continued to support a generally positive outlook for agricultural credit conditions through the rest of this year. However, some pressures have continued to intensify. Despite more measured improvements in recent quarters, farm finances remained solid following especially-strong incomes across the sector during the past two years.

Japanese Government Approves Amended Beef Safeguard Mechanism

The Upper House of Japan’s government, called the Diet, approved the Protocol Amending the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement regarding the beef safeguard mechanism. The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office says that completes the Diet’s process of finalizing the agreement. The new three-trigger safeguard mechanism will allow U.S. exporters to meet Japan’s growing demand for high-quality beef and reduce the probability that Japan will impose higher tariffs in the future. “The protocol will ensure our farmers and ranchers continue to have access to one of the world’s most dynamic markets,” says USTR Katherine Tai. “We are excited that Japanese consumers can enjoy high-quality U.S. beef that’s a staple of our agricultural industry.” In 2021, the U.S. was the top beef exporting country in the world, with global sales of beef products valued at more than $10 billion. U.S. beef exports to Japan totaled almost $2.4 billion in 2021, making Japan the second-largest export market.

USDA Wants Nomination for the Advisory Committee on Ag Statistics

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service is seeking nominations for the Advisory Committee on Agricultural Statistics. Members of this committee advise the Ag Secretary on the scope, timing, and content of periodic agricultural censuses, surveys of agriculture, and other related industries. The committee also makes recommendations on the content of agriculture reports and represents the views and data needs of suppliers and users of ag statistics. “The Advisory Committee has long played an important role within our agency,” says NASS Administrator Hubert Hamer. “The valuable insights and recommendations from the committee have helped shape NASS programs and ensure we continue to meet the needs of data and statistics.” The committee, appointed by the Ag Secretary, consists of 22 members representing multiple disciplines and interests, including ag producers, national farm organizations, ag economists, and many others. Nominations are due by December 7, and for more details, go to the NASS Advisory Committee website.

First Census of Agriculture to Collect Information on Hemp Farming

For the first time, the USDA will collect data on farmers growing hemp and using precision technology in the 2022 Census of Agriculture. The agency began regulating hemp production in 2021, and this will be the first census to publish data on those producers, who grow the crop for fabric, food products, and CBD. The agency says it will also identify farmers who use “precision agriculture” data-collection technology that guides planting decisions. About 70 percent of the nation’s 2.2 million farms responded to the 2017 census. Response rates in recent years have trended downward. Farmers are required by law to fill out the survey, but NASS has no enforcement mechanism. Donald Buysse, (BYSE-see) chief of the census planning branch with NASS, says, “The incentive is the idea you’re providing data as a useful tool for your community.” USDA will collect responses until February 6 and publish the data in February 2024.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Trading in U.S. grain and livestock futures resumes at 8:30 a.m. CDT Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. The session will close early at 12:05 p.m. for most contracts and at 12:15 p.m. for Minneapolis wheat. After USDA's weekly export sales report at 7:30 a.m. CDT, no other significant reports are on the docket, but traders will keep an eye on the latest weather forecasts and outside news, especially from Ukraine.

Weather

An upper-level system that has become cutoff over Texas will produce widespread and building showers and thunderstorms on Friday while showers move out of eastern areas. Some heavier snow will be possible in eastern New Mexico and west Texas as well. The rest of the country will be seasonally mild.

USDA Invites Producers to Respond Online to the 2022 Census of Agriculture

The USDA mailed survey codes to all known U.S. ag producers with the invitation to respond online to the 2022 Census of Agriculture at agcounts.usda.gov. The ag census is the nation’s only comprehensive and impartial agriculture data for every state, county, and territory. By completing the survey, producers across the nation can tell their stories and help generate impactful policies to better serve them and future ag producers. Farmers of all sizes, urban and rural, that produced and sold $1,000 or more of products, or normally would have in 2022, are included in the Census. The Census will get mailed in phases, with paper questionnaires following in December. Producers only have to respond once, either online or by mail. Responses are due on February 6, 2023. “The Census of Agriculture is a powerful voice for American agriculture,” says USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack. “The information is an important influence on future ag policy.”

Comment Period Extended on Packers and Stockyards Act Rulemaking

The USDA says it’s extending the comment period on the proposed rule titled “Inclusive Competition and Market Integrity Under the Packers and Stockyards Act” by 45 days. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association welcomed the extension while urging USDA to proceed in a deliberate manner. “While we appreciate the additional time to submit thorough comments, overall, USDA should slow down on this rulemaking effort,” says NCBA senior director of government affairs Tanner Beymer. “It’s a significant undertaking rooted in decades of history, and stockholders must get the chance to thoroughly evaluate the effects of this rule and those the Department says are coming soon.” NCBA and other industry partners requested an extension of the comment period last month in a letter to USDA. The proposed Packers and Stockyards Act rule spans 180 pages, poses 44 specific questions, and covers 14 years of regulatory history, so the initial 60-day period was too short.

Railroad Conductors Union Rejects Settlement Proposal

The union representing railroad conductors rejected a White House-brokered deal and a strike could start as soon as December 9. The latest rejection comes from the union representing 28,000 conductors, brakemen, and yardmen. NPR says the total number of unions rejecting the agreement is four with a combined membership of close to 60,000 workers. Eight other unions ratified the deal but could get pulled back into the dispute. NPR says that’s because if one union decides to strike, all of the unions will honor the picket lines. The National Grain and Feed Association, the Soy Transportation Coalition, the National Milk Producers Federation, and many other agricultural groups are asking Congress to step in and prevent a shutdown, which would be catastrophic for the U.S. economy. The USDA says railroads carry 29 percent of the nation’s soybeans, 33 percent of the corn, and 60 percent of U.S. wheat to export terminals. 

Sustainable Agriculture Coalition Releases Farm Bill Priorities

The National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition’s 2023 Farm Bill campaign will advance programs and priorities that build resilience and equity across the American agricultural sector. Other platform goals include restoring competition, investing in science, and renewing the environment for current and future generations of Americans. One of the group’s biggest goals is strengthening resilient local and regional food systems. “A lack of technical assistance continues to make it difficult for many farmers and producers to update their businesses to take advantage of market opportunities,” the group says. “Federal farm and food programs must support all producers who want to take advantage of the opportunities.” The coalition also wants to fix a “flawed farm safety net and restore fair competition to the ag sector.” The group says, “Right now, the farm safety net serves as an open-ended entitlement subsidy that encourages high land prices, soil-depleting farming practices and systems, farm consolidation, and declining opportunities.”

NSP Applauds Expanded RMA Coverage for Grain Sorghum

National Sorghum Producers applauds the USDA’s Risk Management Agency’s enhancing coverage for irrigated grain sorghum producers. The new coverage will be effective November 30 for the upcoming year. “This expanded coverage for irrigated sorghum producers is the culmination of ten years’ work between NSP, Congress, and RMA,” says NSP CEO Tim Lust. “We thank them for continuing to work with us to improve coverage options for sorghum producers.” He also says the improved rates and yields for sorghum producers will offer a greater level of aid and new opportunities for the 2023 growing season. RMA developed improved crop insurance options for irrigated grain sorghum producers in select counties in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. “The existing rates for irrigated corn will be used for irrigated grain sorghum and 80 percent of the irrigated corn yield will be used to determine the guarantee,” says RMA, “with no change to the grain sorghum price.”

USDA’s Trade Mission to Spain Seeks to Boost Opportunities

More than 30 agribusinesses and farm organizations will visit Madrid, Spain, from November 29 through December 2 during an upcoming USDA trade mission. Delegation members will engage directly with potential buyers from Spain and Portugal and receive in-depth market briefs from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service and industry trade experts and participate in site visits. Spain is the third-largest EU destination for U.S. agricultural products and Portugal is number 11. “One of the key goals of this USDA trade mission is to highlight both our commonalities and what truly sets U.S. foods and ingredients apart from our competitors in the region,” says FAS Associate Administrator Clay Hamilton. “America’s farmers, ranchers, and producers have a compelling story to tell about the quality and sustainability of their agricultural production, and we are confident that story will resonate with buyers, result in many sales, and provide a boost to the agriculture industry back home.” 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

The day before Thanksgiving has many reports, including U.S. jobless claims, October durable goods orders and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor at 7:30 a.m. CDT, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index and U.S. new home sales at 9 a.m., the U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory report at 9:30 a.m. and minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest open market committee meeting at 1 p.m. U.S. grain and livestock futures close at their regular times Wednesday and open at 8:30 a.m. CDT on Friday for a short trading session.

Weather

A storm system moving through the Rockies on Wednesday will start to develop showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it Wednesday night across the southeastern Plains. Other areas of the country will be dry with mild temperatures for this time of year, a good day for holiday travel.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

There are no significant reports on Tuesday's docket and trading volume may be light this week of Thanksgiving -- sometimes encouraging mischievous behavior. As usual, traders will monitor weather forecasts and watch for a possible export sale announcement at 8 a.m. CDT.

Weather

A quiet weather day is expected for most areas of the country Tuesday. A system will be moving into the Pacific Northwest with scattered showers, however. This system will dive into the Southern Plains by Thursday where showers will be more likely to develop for Thanksgiving. Temperatures are moderating for most areas, with more normal-like readings for this time of year.

Electric Vehicles Won’t Have AM Radios

People shopping for electric vehicles will see that most don’t have AM radio, and it’s a move not sitting well with rural farm broadcasters. Nathan Simington is a Commissioner of the Federal Communications Commission who spoke to broadcasters at the National Association of Farm Broadcasting’s annual convention. He brought a unique perspective to the topic after growing up on a farm in Canada. “AM radio is an indispensable source of information for more than three million farmers in the U.S.,” Simington says. “To those who say AM is a dead technology, 75 percent of farmers listen to the radio five days per week.” For those who don’t know, AM radio is also the “essential spine” of the Emergency Alert System. “More importantly, farm broadcasters, especially those on AM, are a trusted source of information,” Simington adds. “Forget about oil and gas. These days, trust is the most important commodity out there.”

Milk Producers Ask for Support of Domestic Formula Production

The National Milk Producers Federation sent a letter to lawmakers asking for support of domestic infant formula production as the shortfalls that emptied store shelves of formula have eased. Given the improving situation, tariff waivers that could discourage the production of a safe, secure domestic infant formula supply should be allowed to expire at the end of this year as scheduled. The milk producers sent their letter to the chairmen and ranking members of the Senate Finance Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee. “Given the temporary shortfall that gripped American families in need of formula earlier this year has abated, we urge Congress to ensure that the unique, unilateral tariff benefits granted to our trading partners under the Formula Act and the Bulk Infant Formula to Retail Shelves Act end as scheduled at the close of the year,” the letter says. “We request opposition to efforts to extend the benefits.”

NCBA, PLC Oppose ESA Listing of Lesser Prairie Chicken

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and the Public Lands Council announced their opposition to listing the Lesser Prairie Chicken under the Endangered Species Act after the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service released a final rule. “Over and over, the science has proven that healthy, diverse rangelands, the exact kind of landscape maintained by livestock grazing, are where the lesser prairie chicken thrives,” says PLC Executive Director Kaitlynn Glover. “Cattle ranchers’ efforts to conserve these acres are absolutely critical to the survival of the species.” She also says they’re deeply disappointed by the Fish and Wildlife decision to impose redundant and punitive restrictions on the very same people they have to thank for the lesser prairie chicken’s continued existence on the range. The Service is also establishing a rule allowing them to appoint third parties, including environmental activist groups, as the grazing authorities in the range of the lesser prairie chicken.

Beef Advocacy Program Wants New Applicants

The Beef Checkoff-funded Trailblazers program is asking for applications for its next class of beef advocates. Trailblazers, developed by the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, takes advocacy to the next level by giving participants the tools and training they need to promote beef to new audiences while correcting misconceptions. “Trailblazers develops the next generation of beef advocates through a highly-engaging and interactive program,” says Chandler Mulvaney, director of grassroots advocacy and spokesperson development for NCBA. The program is looking for new spokespeople to participate in a year-long, hands-on program to train, equip, and empower beef advocates. Selected candidates learn to become expert communicators, excel in media interviews, and understand how to build confidence in beef-related practices when talking to consumers. Applications are due by December 30, and selected participants will get notified in mid-January. Applicants must be 21 and provide two references with their application. For information, go to NCBA.org.  

Testimony on SEC’s Proposed Climate Rule

Montana Senator Jon Tester pushed the leader of the Securities and Exchange Commission to avoid taking action on its proposed Climate Rule that could potentially hurt American farmers. He’s concerned that action would lead to burdensome reporting requirements for family farmers and ranchers who are part of the supply chain for a publicly-traded company as part of the agency’s proposed climate disclosure rule. “I appreciate our discussion and your response that the SEC doesn’t intend for public companies to have an obligation to ask producers for information to estimate these emissions,” he says. “However, the agency must not take any action that may lead, intentionally or not, to burdensome reporting requirements for production agriculture.” Montana producers applauded the senator’s continued action. “We support the senator’s efforts to help the SEC understand our concerns with what could potentially be a far overreaching rule,” says Cyndi Johnson, president of the Montana Farm Bureau.

Proposed WIC Change Would Decrease Access to Dairy Products

The National Milk Producers Federation and the International Dairy Foods Association say the USDA’s proposed changes to the Women, Infants, and Children’s Nutrition Program will limit dairy access. “Unfortunately, the changes would decrease access to dairy products and the unique nutrient profile they provide, especially considering the current Dietary Guidelines say almost 90 percent of the U.S. population doesn’t consume enough dairy to meet recommendations,” the groups say in a statement. “Nutrition science clearly shows that nutritious dairy products like milk, yogurt, cheese, and cottage cheese are especially important in the diets of women, infants, and children.” They also say dairy is a source of 13 nutrients, including three of the four that are a public health concern as noted by the dietary guidelines. The groups look forward to working with USDA to modernize the WIC food package for eligible families to increase access to nutrient-dense milk, yogurt, and cheese.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will check the latest weather forecasts and survey the news, especially any updates from the war in Ukraine. USDA's weekly export inspections is set for 10 a.m. CDT, followed by Crop Progress at 3 p.m. This will be an abbreviated week of trading with Thanksgiving on Thursday, followed by a shorter session Friday.

Weather

After a brutally cold week for most of the country, temperatures early this week are moderating and becoming more seasonable for most areas. Some light precipitation may be found near the Gulf Coast but most areas are going to stay dry early this week.

Rural Mainstreet Economy Shrinks for Six Straight Months

The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index fell below growth-neutral for the sixth-consecutive month. On a scale of one to 100, 50 represents growth neutral. The Economic Confidence Index plummeted to its lowest level since 2020. Almost 31 percent of bank CEOs in the survey area recommend that the Fed cease raising interest rates. Despite the weaker rural outlook, only 14 percent of the CEOs say their bank had increased financial commitments on farm loans. Farmland demand remains strong as the Farmland Price index climbed above 50 for the 26th month in a row. Almost 61 percent of bank CEOs expect these high farmland prices to plateau, while 22 percent say those land prices will likely decline during the period. “The rural Mainstreet economy is now experiencing a downturn in economic activity,” says Dr. Ernie Goss. “Last month, almost one in four bankers said the economy was already in a recession.”

Increased Ethanol Blend Rates Lower Fuel Costs for Drivers

A new Energy Information Administration report clearly shows higher ethanol blends helped moderate fuel prices after the Ukraine invasion. The report also says the ethanol blend rates hit a record summer average of 10.5 percent. “Fuel ethanol’s price discount to gasoline was one factor that led to the higher summer blend rate in 2022,” the report says. “Although ethanol prices were higher in 2022, they were still low relative to gas prices that were at the highest level since 2014. “The new analysis shows that American drivers gravitated toward lower-cost E15 and E85 this summer as war in Ukraine drove fuel prices to record highs,” says Renewable Fuels Association President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “The report also shows that President Biden made the right call by issuing emergency waivers to allow the continued sales of E15 through the summer.” RFA also says the report shows the importance of year-round access to E15.

Black Sea Grain Export Deal Extended, Russia Wants More

The Black Sea Grain Export Deal, due to expire on Saturday, has been extended for another 120 days. Reuters says Moscow wants its own demands in the deal to get more fully addressed. The agreement protects a sea transit corridor and was intended to help alleviate a global food shortage. Ukraine, a major producer of grains and oilseeds, has three ports in Ukraine currently shipping grain. UN’s Secretary General says they welcome the agreement by all parties to continue the Black Sea grain initiative to facilitate the safe navigation of grain exports, foodstuffs, and fertilizers from Ukraine. Russian exports of ammonia via a pipeline to the Black Sea haven’t been agreed to as part of the renewal. However, Russia is continuing its efforts to resume those exports unimpeded by Western sanctions. The 120-day extension wasn’t the one-year deal the United Nations and Ukraine wanted. Russia says the  duration seems “justified.”

USDA Proposes Science-Driven Updates to WIC

USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service announced proposed changes to the foods prescribed to participants in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, known as WIC (wick). These science-based revisions incorporate recommendations from the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine and the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. “USDA is committed to advancing maternal and child health through WIC, helping mothers, babies, and young kids thrive,” says Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack. “These proposed changes will strengthen WIC, which is already an incredible program, by ensuring it provides foods that reflect the latest nutrition science to support healthy eating and bright futures.” The changes will increase the current level of assistance while providing WIC state agencies with more flexibility to tailor or accommodate personal and cultural food preferences and special dietary needs and increase variety and choice for WIC participants, making the program more appealing for current and potential participants.

Sheep Industry Building a Sustainability Task Force

The American Lamb Board is working with the American sheep industry to create a new task force of industry stakeholders and research and extension specialists to develop a sheep sustainability report. The report will represent the sheep industry’s commitment to sustainability and the industry’s existing practices and goals for continuous improvement in animal care, environmental stewardship, social impacts, and industry productivity. The task force was developed, in part, because of a Michigan State University environmental footprint study. MSU gathered production data and calculated GHG emissions of five different sheep production systems: intensive production, intensive grazing, extensive grazing, range, and feedlots. The study identified the major production factors contributing to GHG emissions in U.S. sheep production, which will help develop mitigation strategies and best practices for each production system to reduce emissions. ALB says its environmental story was added to marketing programs in the past several months, and they’re gearing up for more.

Ethanol Production Hits Lowest Level in a Month

The Energy Information Administration says ethanol output dropped to its lowest level in more than a month, and inventories dropped during the week ending on November 11. The newest EIA report says the production fell to an average of 1.011 million barrels a day. That’s down from 1.051 million barrels during the prior week and the lowest level since October. In the Midwest, the largest-producing region in the U.S., production dropped to 954,000 barrels a day from 992,000 barrels the week before. That’s also the lowest level for the Midwest in over a month. Gulf Coast production declined to an average of 23,000 barrels a day, a 1,000-barrel-a-day drop from the prior week. Rocky Mountain output fell to 13,000 barrels a day, the lowest output since September 23. The East Coast saw the only production increase at 13,000 barrels a day. Inventories through November 11 fell to 21.298 million barrels.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Friday features two economic reports -- existing home sales and leading economic indicators. We will also be watching for any new grain or soybean sales, South American weather, and any news out of Ukraine.

Weather

A reinforcing shot of cold air continues to flow into the U.S. on Friday. It is causing some light snow in places, but with little accumulation outside of the Great Lakes, where lake-effect snows are intense. Sub-freezing temperatures have made it to almost all areas of the country outside of some spots in the Southwest, southern Texas, and the Florida Peninsula with sub-zero readings in the Northern Plains.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report will be out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Thursday, the same time as weekly U.S. jobless claims, October housing starts and an update of the U.S. Drought Monitor. The U.S. Energy Department's weekly report of natural gas storage is set for 9:30 a.m. Traders continue to wait for Russia's decision on the Ukraine grain deal and keep watch over the latest forecasts.

Weather

Another push of cold air across the northern half of the country is bringing the potential for widespread light snows on Thursday. Breezy winds are coming as well, with gusts up to 45 mph in the Northern Plains that could lead to reduced visibility and blowing snow. Lake-effect snows on the eastern side of the Great Lakes continue to be heavier.

Farm Bureau Survey Shows Thanksgiving Dinner Cost up 20 Percent

Thanksgiving is an important holiday for spending time with family and friends. Farm Bureau’s 37th annual Thanksgiving Dinner survey provides a look at the cost of this year’s classic feast for 10. This year’s price tag is $64.05, up more than ten dollars from last year’s average of $53.31. It still works out to under $6.50 per person. The centerpiece is the turkey, which costs more than last year at $28.96 for a 16-pound bird. It’s 21 percent higher than last year. Other ingredients in the meal include stuffing mix, dinner rolls, milk, sweet potatoes, a veggie tray, pie crusts, and several others. The only traditional ingredient that’s cheaper than last year is a bag of fresh cranberries at $2.57, 14 percent cheaper than last year. American Farm Bureau Chief Economist Roger Cryan said factors driving the prices higher include general inflation, supply chain challenges, and the war in Ukraine.

USDA Announces Additional Emergency Relief for Producers

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack says his agency is planning for additional emergency relief and pandemic assistance. USDA will soon roll out phase two of the Emergency Relief Program as well as the new Pandemic Assistance Revenue Program. Those programs will help offset crop and revenue losses for producers. USDA is announcing the forthcoming assistance early enough to give producers time to gather documents and train the agency’s staff. “We have diligently worked to help agricultural producers bounce back from devastating natural disasters and COVID-19 through a number of programs,” Vilsack says. “These new programs are focused on filling gaps in assistance where some producers have fallen through the cracks.” ERP phase two will assist eligible producers who suffered  crop losses due to wildfires, hurricanes, flood, derechos, and others. PARP will help eligible commodity producer who lost revenue in 2020 compared to previous years due to COVID-19. For more info, go to usda.gov.

Food Prices Likely to Drop Next Year

Cargill’s CEO says he expects food prices to decline in 2023. Yahoo says that’s despite tight global crop stockpiles, especially in oilseeds. David MacLennan, Cargill CEO, says the solution to the food versus fuel debate is to boost global crop commodity production. “We don’t think it’s going to be an either-or dynamic,” he says. “It can be food and fuel.” MacLennan also says regenerative agricultural practices, greater yields, and more use of technology can increase output so it can meet the demand from both food and fuel sectors. World food prices hit a record in March after Russia invaded Ukraine and prevented exports from one of the world’s top grain producers. Prices did drop after the United Nations helped reach a grain deal that allowed ships filled with Ukrainian grain to pass unimpeded through the Black Sea. “Food shouldn’t be a weapon,” MacLellan adds. “The world depends on an interconnected food system.”

NMPF Wants Expedited Approval of Climate-Friendly Additives

The National Milk Producers Federation wants the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to speed up the approval of climate-smart feed additives. The group wants the FDA to modernize its regulations allowing for faster approval of animal feed additives that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The milk producers submitted comments to the agency highlighting the need for urgent action to enhance dairy’s role as a climate solution. “Innovative and voluntary solutions are needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including methane,” says Dr. Jamie Jonker, NMPF Chief Science Officer. “Feed composition changes can directly or indirectly reduce enteric emissions resulting from livestock.” While animal feed additives help on the path to net-zero emissions, the pace of their approval lags behind competitors like the European Union due to current FDA processes. “One of the greatest opportunities that exists for dairy farmers is their ability to provide real solutions to many challenges like GHG emissions,” Jonker says.

Grab That Turkey for Thanksgiving

As Americans prepare for Thanksgiving, it’s probably not surprising that the number of available turkeys is lower than last year. Only 49.6 million pounds of turkeys remained in cold storage as of Monday, which a USDA report says is down 18 percent week-to-week. At the end of August, when supplies are usually at their peak, they totaled more than 114 million pounds. An updated USDA report says while turkey production was expected to drop by seven percent, the amount of meat in storage rose one percent from the same point last year. The last month new chicks can mature enough for Thanksgiving is August, and placements rose two percent higher than the five-year-average as producers attempted to make up for lost output because of avian influenza earlier this year. Since the end of August, inventories have steadily declined. Stocks in September dropped to just over 105 million pounds, nine percent above 2021.

Helping Veterans Find New Careers

John Deere announced an agreement with the U.S. Army Reserve to help service members and their families access career opportunities while transferring to civilian life. The agreement allows Deere to provide active-duty soldiers transitioning to the Army Reserves with meaningful education and skills that will make them top candidates for future employment. Deere says it’s honored to give back to the nation’s veterans by helping them take the skills they learned and develop them in a new career path. The agreement builds upon the Defense Department’s Skill Bridge Program, which places active-duty military members in civilian jobs for the final six months of service. Reserve members typically face unemployment rates two or three times the national average. The internship allows vets to get on the ground training and industry education that can help make them better candidates for open jobs. Active-duty, National Guard, or Reserve vets and spouses can go to deere.com.

USDA Provides Almost $24 Million for Beginning Farmers and Ranchers

USDA Chief Scientist Chavonda Jacobs-Young says the agency will invest nearly $24 million across 45 organizations and institutions that teach and train beginning farmers and ranchers. “Investing in the professional development of our nation’s newest farmers and ranchers will help our food and agriculture sectors to flourish from the ground up,” she says. The investments will support a wide range of activities across a number of important topics for new farmers and ranchers, including managing capital, acquiring and managing land, and learning effective business and farming practices. The investment is part of the National Institute of Food and Agriculture’s Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development Program. “We recognize that beginning farmers and ranchers have unique needs for education, training, and technical assistance,” says NIFA Acting Director Dr. Dionne Toombs. “This investment will benefit a new generation of beginning farmers and ranchers across the spectrum of American agriculture. For more information, go to usda.gov.

Farm Groups Ask USTR for “Fresh Start” With WTO

USA Rice released a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai from ag groups asking her for a “fresh start” at the World Trade Organization. “We believe negotiations are at a crossroads, and the current environment is conducive to a fresh start,” the groups say in a letter. “The groups are asking for a forum at the WTO that would facilitate discussion of the traditional core issues as well as emerging trade-related issues like trade liberalization and innovation-friendly regulatory approaches.” They also say if the current WTO structure doesn’t allow for “blank-slate” negotiations, the groups want her to develop alternatives to address these issues. “Finally, a critical element of agricultural trade liberalization will be an effective enforcement mechanism,” they say. “Indefinitely extending the block on appellate body appointments or agreeing to reforms that weaken dispute settlement will be detrimental to America’s agricultural producers and possible discussions surrounding agricultural trade issues.”

Farm Workers to Lobby for Immigration Bill

Over 60 farm worker groups from across America are traveling to Washington this week to urge the Senate to pass the Farm Workforce Modernization Act. The United Farmworkers, the UFW Foundation, and other groups will make the trip to Washington, D.C. to lobby for the bill, which is a compromise between farm and labor leaders and supported by most farm groups. The Fence Post Dot Com says the House passed the bill, but Senate supporters haven’t convinced enough Republicans to support the bill to get the 60 votes needed to avoid a filibuster. Lobbyists for the bill worry that passing it in the next Congress would be close to impossible if Republicans wind up controlling the House. Farm workers from major agricultural states like Arizona, California, Washington, Georgia, and others will be lobbying elected officials. “Providing America’s agricultural workforce with legal status and stability is crucial,” says UFW President Teresa Romero.

Group Wants Seven Billion Gallon Biofuel Law

Clean Fuels America Alliance wants the Environmental Protection Agency to increase the advanced biofuels’ share of the fuel market by one billion gallons a year to reflect the rising interest in renewable diesel production. The recommendations would raise the federal mandate for second-generation biofuels by over 7.6 billion gallons in 2024, which amounts to a 36 percent increase from this year. “We’re seeing the production of renewable diesel coming online,” says Donnell Rehagen, Clean Fuels America CEO. “We believe the EPA has to increase the biomass-based diesel volume by 500 million gallons and the advance biofuels by one billion gallons for each of the next two years.” In an agreement with the biofuel industry, the EPA has a deadline on November 30 to announce the Renewable Fuel Standard for 2023 and possibly for additional years. Plants with up to three billion gallons of capacity will come online in the next three years.

Russia Expected to Extend the Black Sea Grain Deal

Russia will likely extend the United Nations-brokered deal allowing exports of grain and other farm products from Ukraine. Four people tell Bloomberg that the deal expires on November 19 and that Russia will likely allow the deal to renew. Just ahead of the expiration, United Nations’ leadership and Russian officials met on the sidelines of the G20 summit. Reuters says the two sides had a lengthy discussion and talked through all the aspects related to facilitating Russian exports of food and fertilizers, as well as the Black Sea Initiative. The accord helped stave off a global food crisis by allowing food and fertilizer exports from several of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. Russia wants unhindered access to world markets for its own food and fertilizer exports in return for agreeing to continue the Black Sea export deal. Moscow says it could quit the deal if progress isn’t made on its concerns.

Another Record Land Sale in Iowa

Iowa set another record for farmland sales. Seventy-three acres of high-quality farmland in Sioux County, Iowa, sold for $30,000 per acre at auction on November 11. That’s a total sale worth $2.195 million. That’s just part of a new $30,000-per-acre club in Iowa. A local farmer was the buyer, and the runner-up was also a farmer. A statement from Iowa Appraisal says the company can’t explain these recent price records. The price itself got negotiated in just minutes. “There’s no really good explanation for sudden jumps in these record prices,” the company says. The farm had 72.49 tillable acres with a balance in roads and ditches. Its corn acreage base is 28.19 acres with a yield of 172 bushels an acre, and a soybean base of 38.19 acres with a yield of 56 bushels an acre. A recent auction saw 116 acres of southeast Nebraska farmland sell for $27,400 per acre.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

A report on U.S. retail sales for October is due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Wednesday, followed by the Fed's report on October industrial production at 8:15 a.m. The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory report is set for 9:30 a.m. and includes ethanol production. Traders will continue to closely watch news events from Ukraine, as well as the latest weather forecasts.

Weather

A system is moving through the Northeast with a batch of heavy snow. A trough over the middle of the country continues to produce light snow across the Midwest. And another push of cold air coming down from Canada is leading to light snows for the Northern Plains. Some of those snows could be heavier closer to the Rockies tonight and come with some breezy winds as well. Meanwhile, below normal temperatures have largely enveloped the entire U.S.

Ag Groups Call for Congress to Reaffirm Federal Pesticide Preemption

More than 300 agriculture, environment, academic, and infrastructure stakeholder groups are calling on Congress to reaffirm federal pesticide preemption on labeling and packaging. Failing to do so, the groups warn, could hold disastrous consequences for our food security, the environment, public health, vital infrastructure, and other uses where pesticides provide important societal benefits. The Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act is clear that states “shall not impose or continue in effect any requirements for labeling or packaging in addition to or different from those required” by the federal government. However, in recent years, states have sought to impose health claim label requirements that directly contradict federal findings. In a letter to Congress, the groups call on Congress to reaffirm that states may not impose additional labeling or packaging requirements that conflict with federal findings. American Soybean Association President Brad Doyle says, “Farmers and other pesticide users need predictable access to these tools to protect their crops and maintain important conservation practices.

Senate Ag Leaders Call for Greater Cryptocurrency Regulation

Leadership of the Senate Agriculture Committee last week called for more federal oversight of cryptocurrency exchanges. The comments come as cryptocurrency exchange FTX collapsed last week, and a collapse of cryptocurrency prices. The Senate Agriculture Committee has jurisdiction over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Chair Debbie Stabenow, a Michigan Democrat, says, “Consumers continue to be harmed by the lack of transparency and accountability in this market. Ranking Republican from Arkansas, John Boozman, says, “The events that have transpired reinforce the clear need for greater federal oversight of the digital asset industry.” Boozman adds, “While our legislative work continues, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission already has the ability to regulate and prosecute fraud, manipulation and abuse. I strongly encourage them to actively exercise those authorities when necessary.” The Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act of 2022, sponsored by Stabenow, would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to provide the Commodity Futures Trading Commission jurisdiction to oversee the spot digital commodity market

NCGA Launches Search for Next CEO

The National Corn Growers Association Board of Directors has hired Hedlin Ag Enterprises of Ankeny, Iowa, to assist with the search for a new CEO. Current NCGA CEO Jon Doggett has worked for NCGA for more than 20 years as our Vice President of Public Policy, Executive Vice President and, since 2018, as CEO. Doggett made his intentions known to the board earlier this year, and his last day with the organization will be December 31, 2022." NCGA President Tom Haag says, “We have been very thoughtful and put a lot of time and effort into this process.” The initial part of the search involves identifying and vetting potential candidates for the position, which will occur through the end of this year and into the beginning of 2023. Candidate interviews for the CEO position will be held in February with the intention of introducing the new CEO during Commodity Classic in March.

Iowa Department of Ag Cancels Live Bird Exhibitions

The Iowa Department of Agriculture and last week announced an order canceling all live bird exhibitions at fairs and other gatherings of birds. The order comes as Iowa and the rest of the nation face a continued threat of highly pathogenic avian influenza. The order also prohibits live birds from being sold or transferred at livestock auction markets, swap meets, and exotic sales. The order is in place for a minimum of 30 days, and until 30 days have passed without confirmation of a new infection of HPAI in domestic poultry in the state. A similar order was announced March 23 and was lifted June 3. HPAI is a highly contagious viral disease affecting bird populations. HPAI can travel in wild birds without those birds appearing sick, but is often fatal to domestic bird populations, including chickens and turkeys. The virus can spread through droppings or the nasal discharge of an infected bird, which can contaminate dust and soil.

Disability Status Can Affect Food Security Among U.S. Households

In 2021, households that included an adult with disabilities reported higher food insecurity rates than households with no adults with disabilities. USDA’s Economic Research Service reports that in 2021, for U.S. households that included an adult out of the labor force because of a disability, 28 percent were food insecure. Among U.S. households with an adult age 18-64 who reported a disability but was not out of the labor force because of it, 24 percent were food insecure. In contrast, seven percent of households with adults without disabilities were food insecure in 2021. Households that include at least one adult 65 and over who reported a disability had food insecurity prevalence rates similar to households with adults without disabilities, at nine percent. In 2021, the prevalence rate of very low food security for households that included adults not in the labor force because of a disability was more than five times that of households that included adults without disabilities.

Weekly Gas Prices Lower, Diesel Rises Again

After just a week, average gas prices have returned to their decline, with the national average falling 2.6 cents from a week ago to $3.76 per gallon. The national average is down 14.3 cents from a month ago but stands 36.3 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel increased 2.3 cents in the last week and stands at $5.34 per gallon. Diesel supplies remain short, prompting the inverse in price between gas and diesel. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan says, “With oil prices remaining volatile, the outlook is murky, but I’m hopeful in the lead up to Thanksgiving we’ll see prices declining in more states.” The decline has been partly driven by Great Lakes states, where prices fell by 15-25 cents per gallon due to an improvement in the refining situation, and also oil prices. GasBuddy reports U.S. retail gasoline demand fell last week by 0.4 percent.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

The U.S. Labor Department's producer price index for October will be out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Tuesday and is apt to resemble the smaller increases already seen in last Thursday's consumer price index. The National Oilseeds Processors Association will report on members' soybean crush in October later Tuesday morning. Traders will keep watch over the latest weather forecasts and any news pertaining to Ukraine this week.

Weather

A system moving through on Tuesday is bringing widespread precipitation to the eastern half of the country. Across northern areas it is snow, mostly in the light to moderate category. For the Southeast, it's rain and could be moderate in spots. Cold air continues to pour in behind this system, making it feel like winter and causing wheat to go dormant.

Interest and Drought Pressuring Still Strong Farm Economy

Interest rates on farm loans increased sharply in the third quarter, and the acceleration in farm real estate values continued to ease. The Kansas City Fed says farm income and credit conditions remained solid, but the pace of improvement softened. The financial impact of the drought also intensified, particularly in the southern and western portions of the district. Despite the recent headwinds, farm finances remained strong and continued to support sound agricultural loan performance. The outlook for the agricultural economy generally remains positive despite a recent pull back in prices for some key farm commodities. Crop market volatility, higher expenses, and drought could hinder income opportunities for some producers, but prices for key crops and livestock remain at multi-year highs, and profit opportunities remain favorable across the farm sector. The recent substantial improvement in farm finances and a surge in agricultural real estate values have also bolstered farmer balance sheets.

Combine Sales Rise While Tractor Sales Drop in October

Combine harvester sales showed double-digit gains during October in North America. The Association of Equipment Manufacturers says all tractor sales fell in the U.S. and Canada. The latest AEM report says total U.S. ag equipment unit sales stayed above the five-year average for the third time since April. Total farm tractor sales fell 11 percent in October when compared to last year. The biggest drop took place in the sub-40 horsepower category, which fell almost 24 percent. Self-propelled combine sales grew 77 percent to 1,678 units sold. All ag tractor segments above 40 horsepower grew as well, led by a 25 percent rise in 100-plus HP units. Total farm tractor sales are down 14 percent year-to-date, a slight improvement over the prior month. U.S. combine sales are up 16 percent year-to-date. The only segments in Canada that showed growth were four-wheel-drive tractors up 19 percent and combine harvesters up 33 percent.

CAB Awards $70,000 in Scholarship Funds

Certified Angus Beef awarded an annual record of $70,000 in scholarships to 20 students pursuing careers at the ranch, in meat science, in a research lab, or supporting agricultural business and marketing. The Colvin Scholarship Fund recognizes students for the commitment and energy they bring to agriculture, their education, and their community involvement. Young leaders with bright ideas for making the best beef even better earned five production agriculture, ten undergraduate, and five graduate scholarships. Danielle Matter, CAB director of brand experience and education, says, “All of this year’s recipients shine a bright light on the future of the beef business, and we are excited to see how the awards positively influence these students.” The students recognized through the scholarships are carrying on the legacy of the brand’s co-founder and former executive director Louis “Mick” Colvin. Since 2022, the fund has supported a total of 121 recipients through $418,500 in scholarships.

NCBA Applauds Focus on Protecting Food and Ag Sector

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association hailed the signing of the National Security Memorandum to Strengthen the Security and Resilience of U.S. Food and Agriculture. The memorandum helps the federal government to identify the threats facing our food supply and improve national readiness and response. “Our agricultural sector faces a variety of threats that could inhibit cattle producers’ ability to bring beef from pasture to plate,” says NCBA CEO Colin Woodall. “We appreciate the focus on developing threat mitigation strategies.” He also says if everyone works together, “We can protect our industry while ensuring that all Americans have access to wholesome foods like beef.” The memorandum instructs top government officials on identifying threats and coordinating with all levels of government on a response. The NCBA is especially pleased that the Biden Administration is making security and resiliency decisions based on sound data. “These are the kinds of data-driven decisions we support,” says Woodall.

Report Show Increasing Acreage and Sustainability for U.S. Cotton Production

The U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol released a report showing increasing improvement in the sustainability of American cotton production. The report shows significant improvements in important sustainability metrics. Cotton Trust Protocol members have recorded a 13 percent increase in land use efficiency and a 14 percent increase in water use efficiency. There’s also a 25 percent reduction in energy use, a 21 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and a 78 percent reduction in soil loss. Seventy percent of growers in the protocol had a positive Soil Conservation Index. Membership in the Cotton Trust Protocol has grown both domestically and internationally. Enrolled acres of U.S. cotton production have doubled to 1.1 million acres since the program’s pilot year. All 17 of the major U.S. cotton-producing states are now represented. Dr. Gary Adams, Cotton Trust President, says the results speak for themselves in the impressive progress made by growers on key sustainability metrics.”

Year-Round Ethanol Sales Idea Wins Oil Group Support

A Republican senator from Nebraska plans to submit legislation to expand national sales of E15 with the support of a major oil industry trade group. Successful Farming says Deb Fischer believes there is a way to move ahead with year-round E15 sales that have previously been opposed by some oil and environmental groups. The American Petroleum Institute, one of the oil industry’s top trade groups, began discussions earlier this year with the Renewable Fuels Association on a nationwide expansion of E15. The API began cooperating with biofuel trade groups after governors from major corn-producing states requested the Environmental Protection Agency lift restrictions on E15 sales in their states. The governors’ proposal raised oil industry concerns about fuel supplies. “A state-by-state approach would create a boutique fuel market in the Midwest and may negatively impact the reliability of gasoline supply to the region,” says Will Hupman, API Vice President of Downstream Policy.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will be checking over the latest weather forecasts and any market-related news, especially as Russia is expected to either accept or quit the Ukrainian grain deal by November 19. USDA's weekly report of export inspections is due out at 10 a.m. CDT Monday, followed by Crop Progress at 3 p.m.

Weather

Widespread cold has gripped most of the nation, making it feel like winter. A small system developing in Texas will spread scattered showers through the southern half of the Plains states but quickly move eastward through the Southeast with rain going into Tuesday. The northern half of the precipitation will be snow and could be moderate in some spots through the Plains and into the Midwest. The reinforcing cold coming behind the system will likely continue the process of turning wheat dormant in a lot of areas.

Union Pushes Back Date for Potential Railroad Worker Strike

A key railroad workers’ union says it won’t go on strike after November 19. The Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way – Employees Division says it will hold off on any type of action until early December. Freight Waves Dot Com says that will give railroads more time to come up with their best offer without the pressure of an imminent walkout. The status quo period will be in place along with three other unions that have yet to approve their labor agreements. This period, known as a “cooling-off period,” means unions or railroads can’t engage in any work stoppages according to federal law. The union says it’s the last chance for railroads to do the right thing by voluntarily agreeing to provide paid sick leave to all employees. “Congress should not intervene and rescue the railroads if they continue to refuse to provide workers with paid sick leave,” the union says in a statement.

Export Exchange Leads to $225 Million in Sales

The Export Exchange Conference recently hosted by the U.S. Grains Council, Growth Energy, and the Renewable Fuels Association is already paying off. According to surveys of grain buyers who attended the event, they bought $225 million worth of grain and ethanol co-products. In addition to that total, another $128 million in potential sales is under negotiations. That equates to almost 515,000 metric tons of grains and co-products traded at the conference or immediately before or after. “Trade is absolutely critical to U.S. farmers right now, and these sales show that buyers attending the Export Exchange took the buying opportunities very seriously,” says USGC President and CEO Ryan LeGrand. Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, says, “Exports of U.S. grains and DDGS create jobs at home while helping international companies satisfy their demand for quality products.” Geoff Cooper, RFA President and CEO, says buyers bought enough DDGS to fill three Panamax vessels.

USMEF Conference Examines Exports, Constraints, and Headwinds

The U.S. Meat Export Federation’s Strategic Planning Conference in Oklahoma City attracted farmers, ranchers, processors, and exporters from across the country. While U.S. red meat exports will likely set a record in value, there are several obstacles ahead for the industry, including a sluggish global economy, weaker currencies, and the lingering effects of COVID. Production challenges are also mounting, especially with severe drought. Keynote speaker Randy Blach (Block) of CattleFax says despite the challenges, the U.S. red meat industry is still remarkably efficient and sustainable. He says American producers are well-positioned for success, even in this challenging environment. “We produce more beef than Brazil with one-third the number of cattle,” Blach says. “It’s our high-quality, grain-fed beef.” USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom updated members on current export results and the outlook for the months ahead. He also highlighted the importance of market diversification that’s helped exports maintain their record pace.

Mexican Lawmakers Pushing to Ban Almost 200 Pesticide Chemicals

A group of lawmakers in Mexico is attempting to ban almost 200 chemicals used in pesticides, and the country’s farmers are alarmed at the prospect. While supporters of the idea want pesticides banned because it’s harmful to human health, farmers say that could devastate Mexico’s ability to produce food. Head Topics Dot Com says there’s a growing push in Mexico against using pesticides and growing genetically modified corn. However, some in the Mexican government say this proposal goes too far too quickly. The country is already getting rid of glyphosate, and the country intends to ban genetically modified corn in 2024. The Senate will soon take up the plan to phase out 183 different chemicals contained in commonly-used pesticides by 2024. The proposed bill pushes alternatives like bio-inputs and extract products to replace pesticides. If the bill is approved, it moves to a Senate vote and then the lower house.

USDA Investing $50 Million in Healthier School Meals

USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service launched a new initiative for healthier school meals through a $50 million grant opportunity. It will support collaboration with the food industry to develop nutritious and appetizing school meals for students. “We’re investing in innovative solutions and challenging the industry to partner with us to ensure every student has access to healthy school meals,” says Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack. “For children to reach their full academic potential, they must build healthy eating habits, and USDA recognizes the importance of private sector partnership in making this happen.” The request for grant applications is now open and marks the second phase of USDA’s $100 million Healthy Meals Incentives Initiative. The initiative is designed to improve the quality of school meals by strengthening access to nutritious food products. Up to four non-governmental organizations will be selected by the Food and Nutrition Service to manage funds for the School Food System Transformation Challenge.

Weekly Ethanol Output Hits Four-Month High

The Energy Information Administration says ethanol production hit its highest level in four months while inventories declined during the week ending on November 4. The weekly output rose to an average of 1.051 million barrels per day. That’s up from 1.04 million barrels during the previous week and the highest level since June 24. The Midwest, which produces the most ethanol of any region in the country saw production rise to 992,000 barrels per day on average. That’s up from 981,000 the prior week and the highest production level since June 17. The Midwest gains were the entirety of the additions as production in most regions stayed the same from the previous week. East Coast production remained at 12,000 barrels a day for the third-straight week, and Rocky Mountain production was steady at 15,000 barrels a day for the fourth-straight week. Ethanol inventories that week dropped to 22.192 million barrels.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Friday is Veterans Day, a special day to honor those that have served. Futures markets will trade as usual and the University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment for November is due out at 9 a.m. CDT. Traders will watch the latest weather forecasts and be attentive to any news that comes from Friday's meeting of Russian and U.N. officials pertaining to the Ukrainian grain deal.

Weather

The remnants to Nicole are spreading rain across the Appalachians and East Coast for Friday. Some of those showers are falling west of the mountain range, which will add a minor boost to the inland river systems. A sharp cold front continues to trek eastward through the country with very cold, arctic air settling in behind it that will last through next week. As the front passes, temperatures will fall dramatically.

USDA Releases November WASDE

USDA released the November World Agriculture Supply and Demand report Wednesday. This month's 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for higher production, larger feed and residual use, and greater ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.930 billion bushels, up 35 million from last month, on a 0.4-bushel increase in yield to 172.3 bushels per acre. The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $6.80 per bushel. The soybean outlook for 2022/23 increased production, crush, and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.35 billion bushels, up 33 million on higher yields. Higher yields in Iowa and Missouri account for most of the change in production. The season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.00 per bushel, unchanged from last month. And the outlook for 2022/23 wheat this month shows stable supplies, increased domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly lower ending stocks. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price was unchanged at $9.20 per bushel.

No Change in House/Senate Ag Leadership

Leadership of the House and Senate Agriculture Committees will likely be the same in the next Congress. Who controls the majority in the House, along with the Senate, will have a significant say in the 2023 Farm Bill process. Ranking Republican Glenn GT Thompson was reelected Tuesday and seems poised to chair the committee, if Republicans can hold on to take the majority in the House. Meanwhile, Georgia voters reelected Democrat David Scott, the current House Agriculture Committee chairman, who seems likely to remain the top Democrat on the committee. Meanwhile, the Senate Agriculture Committee will likely see the same leadership return. Senator Debbie Stabenow, a Michigan Democrat, was not up for re-election, and Arkansas voters reelected Republican John Boozman. The so-called red wave did not appear on election day and seems to give way to thin majorities for both the House and Senate. Final election results for all races may take a few more days.

Maryland and Missouri Approve Marijuana Legalization

Voters in Maryland and Missouri approved ballot measures Tuesday to legalize and regulate marijuana for adult use. Similar measures were defeated in Arkansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Maryland Question 4 was referred to the ballot by the Legislature, while Missouri Amendment 3 was placed on the ballot via citizen initiative. Both measures make possession of limited amounts of cannabis legal for adults 21 and older and authorize the regulated production and sale of cannabis for adult use. Adult-use legalization laws have now been adopted in 21 states, D.C., and two U.S. territories, while an additional 16 states and two territories have legalized cannabis for medical use. VS Strategies is a national policy and public affairs firm based in Denver specializing in cannabis and drug policy. A VS Strategies spokesperson says, “Support for ending marijuana prohibition in the states is spreading much like it did at the end of alcohol prohibition.”

2022 Farm Service Agency County Committee Elections Open This Week

The Department of Agriculture began mailing ballots for the Farm Service Agency county and urban county committee elections this week. Elections are occurring in certain Local Administrative Areas for these committee members who make important decisions about how federal farm programs are administered locally.  FSA Administrator Zach Ducheneaux (DOO-sheh-know), says, "Voting in these elections is your opportunity to help ensure our county committees reflect the diversity of our agriculture." Producers must participate or cooperate in an FSA program to be eligible to vote in the county committee election. A cooperating producer is someone who has provided information about their farming or ranching operation but may not have applied or received FSA program benefits. Producers who are not of legal voting age but supervise and conduct farming operations for an entire farm are eligible to vote in these elections. Producers and landowners must return ballots to their local FSA county office or have their ballots  postmarked by December 5, 2022, in order for those ballots to be counted. 

SNAP Participation Varied Across States from 2019 to 2021

In fiscal year 2021, USDA’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program served an average of 41.5 million people monthly. USDA’s Economic Research Service Wednesday reported the 2021 figure is an increase of about 5.8 million per month compared with fiscal year 2019. SNAP participation increased nationwide during the COVID-19 pandemic to around 12.5 percent of the total U.S. population in 2021 from about 10.9 percent in 2019. In addition, SNAP participation data in February 2019 were artificially low because of the Federal Government shutdown at the time, impacting the average participation rate. SNAP participation also varied across states because of differences in program administration and economic conditions. Over this two-year period, 41 states saw an increase in SNAP participation, which ranged from a 0.1-percent increase in Mississippi to a 6.6-percent increase in the District of Columbia. In D.C., the percentage of participants increased to 20.9 percent in FY 2021 from 14.3 percent in FY 2019.

Farmers Encouraged to Keep the Stubble During No-Till November

The Natural Resources Conservation Service encourages farmers to keep the tillage equipment in the machine shed during No-Till November. In a Wisconsin campaign first launched in 2017, the NRCS project is a conservation twist on the national cancer awareness No Shave November campaign that encourages people not to shave during the entire month. The NRCS campaign encourages farmers to "keep the stubble" on their harvested crop fields. The campaign has reached more than two million people nationally through Twitter and local media since 2017. Wisconsin NRCS Acting State Conservationist Jamie Keith, says, "No-till farming is a cornerstone soil health conservation practice, which also promotes water quality while saving farmers time and money.” One of the first soil health principles is “do not disturb.” Keith of Wisconsin adds, “This campaign is a fun way to remind farmers about the important relationship between tillage and soil health.”

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA's weekly export sales report is due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT Thursday, the same time as the Labor Department's reports on consumer prices for October and weekly jobless claims, as well as the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Energy Department's weekly report on natural gas storage is set for 9:30 a.m., followed by the Treasury Department's report on the federal budget in October at 1 p.m.

Weather

A strong storm system moving through the middle of the country on Thursday is bringing heavy snow and potential blizzard conditions to the Northern Plains. The cold front will sweep eastward and very cold air is filling in behind the system. While precipitation is heavy across the north, it is far less intense everywhere else and drought conditions continue to grow for southwestern Plains wheat. Tropical Storm Nicole is making landfall in central Florida early this morning and spreading heavy rain into the Southeast throughout the day.

Results From Ag Lender Survey Released

The top concern facing agricultural lenders going into 2023 is interest rate volatility, according to the 2022 Agricultural Lender Survey report. The report announced this week is produced jointly by the American Bankers Association and Farmer Mac. Nearly half of respondents ranked interest rate volatility among their top two concerns, up 35.5 percentage points from last year. While rising rates have helped bolster bank net interest margins, a combination of higher funding costs, fears of weakening loan demand and strong competition is expected to cut into rising yields. Most lenders reported overall farm profitability increased in the last year. Lenders expect conditions to deteriorate next year, with 52.6 percent projecting a decline in farm profitability in the next 12 months. However, this remains well below the 2016-2020 survey average of 82.3 percent. Jackson Takach (tack-ish), Chief Economist at Farmer Mac, says, “Looking ahead, ag lenders are keeping a close eye on expenses, as feed, fertilizer, fuel, and other input costs remain elevated."

New FMI Report Reveals Consumer Playbook for Foodservice at Retail

The Food Industry Association released its Power of Foodservice at Retail 2022 report Tuesday. The report shows key insights into consumer demand for foodservice at retail, and comes at a critical time when 25 percent of shoppers are purchasing more grocery foodservice items than a year ago, surpassing dollar and unit sales volume from last year and 2019. The analysis suggests that food retailers can compete for consumers’ food dollars by maximizing value, nutrition and convenience, while clearly communicating these benefits to consumers. As inflation continues to affect Americans’ budgets, shoppers are preparing more meals at home – focusing on weekly meal planning and scratch cooking. Fifty-three percent say grocery foodservice items are a good value compared to eating at a restaurant or ordering takeout. A growing number of shoppers are ranking nutritional value highly when considering foodservice options, as 58 percent of consumers are interested in vegetables or other healthy options. However, only slightly more than a third are very satisfied with the nutrition levels of current foodservice offerings.

Grassley Presses Biden Administration on New Rural Mental Health Law

Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa is requesting an update on the Biden administration’s efforts to implement the Seeding Rural Resilience Act. Grassley sent the request to the Department of Agriculture and Health and Human Services this week. The 2020 legislation is designed to curb the rising rate of suicide in rural areas – in the National Defense Authorization Act. The law requires interagency coordination between USDA and HHS. Grassley notes current economic conditions make timely implementation of the law even more important, adding, "The timely implementation of the Seeding Rural Resilience Act can provide life-saving resources to rural Americans." In February and again in June, Grassley asked Surgeon General Vivek Murthy about efforts he is taking to support implementation of the Seeding Rural Resilience Act, given the surgeon general’s emphasis on improving mental health. To date, Grassley has not received an answer from the surgeon general.

American Farmland Trust Releases Updated CaRPE Tool

American Farmland Trust Tuesday released its updated Carbon Reduction Potential Evaluation Tool. The announcement includes the first of a series of briefs to help states estimate greenhouse gas emission reduction opportunities from the climate-smart cropland and grazing land management practices. The tool and state-specific briefs, which summarize the carbon benefits of climate-smart practices and provide state and federal policy recommendations to increase their adoption, are now available. These briefs are designed to help policymakers and land managers prioritize efforts for cost-effective climate benefits available from the agricultural sector. The tool has been available from AFT since the fall of 2020 and used by states to build working lands solutions into climate mitigation plans and state soil health efforts. Recent updates to the tool allow users to view data by USDA Farm Resource Regions and see results by counties and states and get the weighted emission reduction coefficient. Information on the free, publicly available tool and how to access it can be found at farmland.org.

Farm Credit Organizations Launch Terrain

Three farm credit organizations this week launched Terrain, a new source of agricultural industry analysis for U.S. farmers and ranchers. American AgCredit, Farm Credit Services of America, and Frontier Farm Credit partnered to offer Terrain to their customers. Curt Hudnutt, CEO of American AgCredit, says, “Serving farmers and ranchers – from everything between Iowa’s hog and corn farmers to California’s dairy and vineyard owners – is our shared mission Terrain’s experts share insights on trends and market-moving events through reports, videos, presentations and more. Mark Jensen, CEO of Farm Credit Services of America and Frontier Farm Credit, adds, “Terrain provides unique expertise to support the future of agriculture and rural communities.” Visit terrainag.com for Terrain’s current perspective on the impact of interest rates on agricultural loans, a discussion on how grain storage costs change with interest rates, and insights on the near-term risks for the hog farming sector.

U.S. Sweet Potatoes Enjoyed Around the World

The United States is not the only country enjoying U.S. sweet potatoes. According to the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, the United States was the top global exporter, by volume, of sweet potatoes in 2020. USDA’s Economic Research Service Tuesday announced U.S. sweet potato exports on a fresh-weight basis increased 1,157 percent from 2001 to 2021. And the annual value of exports grew from $14 million to $187 million in the same period. Promotion of the health benefits and food companies’ expanding sweet-potato offerings, such as sweet potato chips and fries, have helped fuel the expansion. Exports to the United Kingdom and European Union experienced strong year-over-year growth from the mid-2000s until 2018. The United States ranks seventh globally in sweet potato production, according to FAO. Over the past 20 years, top-producing U.S. states more than doubled sweet potato production to meet growing international and domestic demand.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory report, including ethanol production will be out at 9:30 a.m. CST, followed by USDA's WASDE and Crop Production reports at 11 a.m. Traders will pay attention to this week's weather forecasts with significant temperature changes expected through the week. Outside markets also remain a frequent concern.

Weather

A sharp cold front is draped over the North-Central U.S. Wednesday morning where scattered showers are building up ahead of a system that is pushing through the Intermountain West. That system will emerge into the Plains Wednesday night and increase precipitation over northern areas, turning a lot of it over to heavy snow in the Dakotas by Thursday morning. Strong winds will accompany the system as well. Tropical Storm Nicole is headed toward Florida with landfall Wednesday night or early Thursday morning, possibly as a hurricane. Regardless, heavy rain will move into Florida that is still trying to recover from Hurricane Ian in late September.

September Pork Exports Continue Upward Trend; Pace Cools for Beef

U.S. pork exports topped year-ago totals for the second consecutive month in September, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation. September beef exports were below last year for the first time in 2022, but exports remain on a record pace through the first three quarters of the year. Pork exports reached 222,202 metric tons in September, up one percent from a year ago. Export value increased nine percent to $664.8 million – the highest since June 2021. Through September, pork exports were 13 percent below last year at 1.94 million metric tons, valued at $5.57 billion. September beef exports totaled 115,487 metric tons, valued at $890.3 million, down seven percent from a year ago in both volume and value. For the first nine months of 2022, beef exports were still four percent above last year at 1.12 million metric tons. Export value reached $9.12 billion, up 20 percent and already achieving the second-highest total for any calendar year, trailing only the 2021 record of $10.58 billion.

Poultry Industry Releases Economic Impact Study

The U.S. Poultry and Egg Association, National Chicken Council, National Turkey Federation and United Egg Producers recently released an updated economic impact study. The study highlights the poultry industry's positive impact on jobs, wages, and federal and state revenue in the United States. A dynamic and integral part of the national economy, the U.S. poultry industry provides more than two million jobs, $125 billion in wages, $555 billion in economic activity and $33 billion in government revenue. Specifically, the study found the chicken industry provided $417 billion in economic activity, while the turkey industry provides $99.5 billion, and the egg industry provides $44.7 billion. John Starkey, president of the U.S. Poultry and Egg Association, says, “We are pleased to continue providing this valuable tool across the industry that shows the positive economic impact the poultry industry has on our nation and communities.” The U.S. Poultry and Egg Association funded the economic impact study.

California Top Purchaser of Crop Insurance for Specialty Crops

New data from USDA's Economic Research Service shows California farmers purchase the most Federal Crop Insurance policies for Specialty Crops. California led the country in policies for specialty crops in 2020, followed by Florida, Washington, North Dakota, and Minnesota. The states also produce the most fruits and vegetables, California, Florida, and Washington, and specialty field crops, from North Dakota and Minnesota. Specialty crops are a commodity group which includes fresh or dried fruits; tree nuts; vegetables; pulse crops such as dry beans, peas, and lentils; and horticulture nursery crops. California’s policies reflect the variety of specialty crops produced in the state, including almonds, grapes, oranges, walnuts, and raisins. Most North Dakota policies cover field crops—dry beans and dry peas. In 2020, specialty crops accounted for 25 percent of the value of U.S. crop production. Crop Insurance policies can mitigate risks by providing payments if insured crops experience losses caused by naturally occurring events and market conditions.

Plant Based Products Council Announces First Annual Industry Conference

The Plant Based Products Council Monday announced its first annual conference. The PBPC 2023 Annual Conference: Circular Solutions, will explore the innovations, business models, and policies influencing the entire lifecycle of bioproducts in the promotion of a more circular economy. Attendees will hear from and network with industry leaders, policymakers, brands, and experts through panels, keynotes, networking sessions, and more. Plant Based Products Council Executive Director Jessica Bowman says, "We are thrilled to launch our annual conference convening leading experts and innovators to discuss their role in this emerging industry and what solutions, challenges, and opportunities lie ahead." The conference is planned for March 27-29, 2023, in Washington, D.C. The Plant Based Products Council is an advocacy association working toward a more circular bioeconomy through greater adoption of renewable, plant-based materials supported by appropriate end-of-life infrastructure. Members of the organization include ADM, Cargill, and the National Corn Growers Association.

High Diesel Prices Put Strain on Farmers

With diesel prices more than $1.50 per gallon high than this time last year, the American Farm Bureau Federation calls on the Biden administration to bring more domestic supply online, A ban on U.S. imports of petroleum from Russia, lower domestic production capacity, and seasonal demand are all contributing to higher costs. Russia provided 20 percent of the petroleum imported into the U.S. in 2021, but that was halted after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Further, since 2019, domestic diesel production capacity has dropped by 180,000 barrels per day. Several plants closed during the coronavirus pandemic and are not yet back online. AFBF President Zippy Duvall, in a letter to President Joe Biden, says, "High diesel prices are severely impacting our farmers and ranchers, causing increased costs to consumers, and adding to food insecurity." National diesel prices are expected to average $4.86 per gallon through the end of the year, according to government projections, and $4.29 per gallon in 2023.

Gas and Diesel Prices Rise Again

For the first time in the last month, the nation’s average gas price increased, rising 6.2 cents from a week ago to $3.78 per gallon. The national average is down 11.5 cents from a month ago but stands 37.8 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel increased 3.4 cents in the last week and stands at $5.32 per gallon. National diesel supply remains tight, but supplies of diesel did see a slight rise last week. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan says, “Brief outages at a limited number of stations are possible, but with refineries continuing to churn out product and maintenance wrapping up, I’m optimistic the situation will improve.” Oil saw a strong rally last week as inventories continued to decline and Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases slowed down. Last week’s report from the Energy Information Administration showed a notable drop in oil inventories of 3.1 million barrels, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve saw a drop of 1.9 million barrels.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

There will be few government reports early on Tuesday as the mid-term elections take place. DTN will be watching for more developments on the Ukraine export deal and any export sales news, along with any changes in South American weather.

Weather

A system continues to move through the Northern Plains on Tuesday, dragging a cold front with a band of snow behind it in Montana. In the Plains, winds are increasing and spotty showers will develop from Texas to Minnesota, more consistent farther north toward the front. A stronger storm continues to build out in the West with heavy precipitation in drought areas in California and Nevada. Dry and warm conditions for eastern areas of the country may want to get fieldwork completed before this system moves east later this week.

Ag Groups Ask Congress to Prevent Potential Rail Strike

Over 190 members of the Agricultural Transportation Working Group want Congress to prepare to help prevent a railroad strike or lockout. Beef Magazine says a strike or lockout would shut down all rail-dependent facilities and result in devastating consequences to both national and global food security. The Biden administration successfully helped broker an agreement between the National Railway Labor Conference and 12 labor unions on September 15. But two unions voted against the agreement while four others continue reviewing it. The food and agriculture groups sent a letter to congressional leadership saying action will be necessary if the parties fail to reach an agreement. “Resolution of the dispute before November 19 is necessary to ensure uninterrupted rail service,” the letter says. “Adding urgency to the matter is critical inputs, and agricultural products like ammonia could be embargoed starting November 14.” They say a rail strike would be “catastrophic” to the U.S. economy.