U.S. agricultural exports totaled $15.13 billion in October, the start of Fiscal Year (FY) 2021, up $2.9 billion from September (23.7%), according to data from USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS). That would be the third highest monthly export total based on records dating back to the mid-1970s.
The value of ag imports reached $11.62 billion for October, up $665 million from September and resulted in an ag trade surplus for the month of $3.52 billion.
USDA is currently forecasting U.S. ag exports in FY 2021 to reach $152 billion and imports at a record $137 billion. In FY 2020, U.S. ag exports were $135.9 billion against record imports of $133.3 billion for a trade surplus of just $2.65 billion. USDA expects the FY 2021 ag trade surplus to surge to $15 billion on the back of strong exports as the forecast import level would notch a new record. USDA's current forecast for FY 2021 would imply average monthly exports of $12.67 billion and imports of $11.42 billion.
The October result on exports marks only the third month that U.S. ag exports have been $15 billion or more based on history going back to the 1970s. The other two months were in October 2013 ($15.18 billion) and November 2013 ($15.82 billion). October and November tend to be the largest monthly totals for U.S. ag exports.
As for imports, the highest monthly values do not typically come until the March-May period, tending to be above the October and November monthly totals in each of the last several fiscal years.