USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is undertaking a “deep dive” on the policies and procedures the agency uses to prepare its Grain Stocks report, Lance Honig, head of the NASS crops branch, said during the first day of a virtual data users meeting. Sampling methods, questionnaires used to gather data and the processing of that information will be the focus.
Findings of the review and recommendations are due by September 30, he noted. Honig acknowledged questions that have arisen over the Grain Stocks report in particular, where revisions to prior stocks figures have caused market reactions. Honig insisted that NASS has not altered its revision policy and said most of the adjustments on prior numbers were from late or updated reports from commercial grain storage firms.
Honig told IHS Markit that the late reports are a combination typically of ones that come in after the deadline for the prior quarter or are corrected reports from the prior quarter and those can come into the agency at any time. Any changes recommended would not be put in place until after October 1, with any changes that are linked to manuals or training documents to be implemented immediately.
He also pointed out during the data users meeting that that in the quarterly stocks data there is also an element of forecasting that takes place relative to imports, exports, food and industrial use, another factor that can produce revisions once final data in those areas for the quarter is available.