USDA Releases Grain Stocks Reports

USDA’s June Grain Stocks Report shows corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2024, totaled 4.99 billion bushels, up 22 percent from June 1, 2023. Of the total stocks, 3.03 billion bushels are stored on farms, 37 percent higher than last year. Off-farm stocks hit 1.97 billion bushels, four percent higher than in 2023. Soybeans in all positions on June 1 totaled 970 million bushels, up 22 percent from June 1, 2023. On-farm stocks were up 44 percent from last year at 466 million bushels. Off-farm stocks, at 504 million, are up six percent from last year. Old crop all wheat stored in all positions totaled 702 million bushels, up 23 percent over 2023. On-farm stocks are estimated at 139 million bushels, up 12 percent from last year. Old crop Durum wheat stocks in all positions on June 1 totaled 21.1 million bushels, down 24 percent from a year ago.

Survey Shows Americans’ Renewable Energy Support is Declining

A Pew Research Center survey shows some Americans are driving a decline in America’s support for renewable energy. While solar and wind power remain popular, support for expanding them is dropping. In 2020, solar expansion had the backing of 90 percent of the people surveyed, and that’s now down to 78 percent. Wind has seen a similar dip, from 83 percent in 2020 to 72 percent now. “Although broad public support for renewable energy is still there, the breadth of that support is less widespread than it was four years ago, or even one year ago,” says Alec Tyson, the report’s lead author and associate director of research at Pew. The Pew report, titled, “How Americans View National, Local, and Personal Energy Choices,” shows tempered interest in EVs. Survey respondents are showing reluctance to embrace initiatives like phasing out gas-powered vehicles. Three in ten Americans would consider buying an EV.

NCGA: USTR Makes Strong Case in Trade Dispute

Officials from the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office hammered arguments made by Mexican representatives during oral arguments about Mexico’s ban on imports of genetically modified corn used in some food products. The ban was issued in early 2023. USTR filed a dispute settlement under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement over the issue in August of that year. “The science overwhelmingly shows that genetically modified corn is safe for consumers and doesn’t harm native plants,” says National Corn Growers Association President Harold Wolle (WOOL-lee). “U.S. officials did a great job of making their case, and more importantly, they successfully argued that the Mexican government doesn’t have the scientific evidence to support its actions or claims.” During the hearing, U.S. officials argued that Mexico didn’t conduct a risk assessment to support its claims and that the documentation provided was over 20 years old. They also said Mexico’s regulatory agencies previously determined that GMO corn is safe.

USDA Expanding Specialty Crop and Organic Insurance Options

The USDA is expanding crop insurance options for specialty and organic growers beginning with the 2025 crop year. USDA’s Risk Management Agency is expanding coverage options by allowing enterprise units by organic farming practice, adding enterprise-unit eligibility for several crops, and making additional policy updates. This is the first of several announcements this summer, which will include the expansion of the shellfish policy in the Northeast and new coverage for grape growers in the West and beyond. These expansions and other improvements build on other recent RMA efforts to better serve specialty crop producers and reach a broader group of producers. “The Risk Management Agency is excited to expand coverage options for specialty and organic growers, including the availability of enterprise and optional units for many producers,” says RMA Administrator Marcia Bunger. “Expanding our coverage options gives producers more opportunities to manage their risks, and we’ll have more announcements soon.”

Top 5 Things to Watch - More Wet Weather, Cyberattack Recovery, Holiday Market Break

1. Independence Day market holiday: U.S. Markets will be closed Thursday; we'll resume market coverage, including our daily videos, early Friday morning. Canadian markets also will be closed on Canada Day on July 1.

2. Flooding updates, hurricane develops: More rain is expected through the week, which may be bad for areas already dealing with flooding, but good for areas that had been dry. DTN models increase rain chances with every fresh run. 

. We're also watching what might be the U.S. impact of the first hurricane of the season in the Atlantic Ocean -- Hurricane Beryl rapidly strengthened from a tropical depression on Friday to a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday evening as it heads towards the Caribbean. The major hurricane is currently forecast by the National Hurricane Center to become an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 hurricane when it hits the Windward Islands.

3. More on SCOTUS rulings: We'll continue to dig into how the latest Supreme Court decisions may influence farm and agricultural interests. 

4. Cyberattack recovery: We're continuing to follow the slow recovery of thousands of automobile and farm equipment dealerships in the U.S. and Canada that were affected when CDK Global was hit with a ransomware cyberattack on June 19. The dealerships use CDK's software system in their businesses. Farmers were affected after these companies were forced to shut down their computers after the attack and do everything manually temporarily. 

5. Economic reports to watch: Monday, at 8:45 a.m. the S&P Manufacturing PMI is out. At 9 a.m., Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing reports hit. Grain Inspections come out at 10 a.m., 2 p.m. brings the Grain Crushings and Co-products, and Fats and Oils report. At 3 p.m. we'll have the USDA Nass Crop Progress Report, where many will be looking at crop conditions from the areas of flooding and heavy rainfall recently. Tuesday is a light day, with only the 9 a.m. Job Openings report to consider. Wednesday makes up for that, starting with the 7:15 a.m. ADP Employment figures, 7:30 a.m. Initial Jobless Claims and U.S. Trade Deficit reports. At 8:45 a.m. the S&P Services PMI is out, followed by 9 a.m. release of Factory Orders. At 9:30 a.m. we'll see the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status, including ethanol numbers. At 1 p.m. there is the anticipated release of the Minutes of June FMOC (Fed) meeting. At 3 p.m. we'll see the latest Broiler Hatchery and Dairy Products numbers. Thursday, July 4, there are no economics reports and markets are closed. Friday hopefully everyone rejoins the markets with all fingers accounted for. At 7:30 a.m. we'll have Grain Export Sales, U.S. Unemployment, Unemployment Rate and Hourly Wages figures. At 2:30 p.m. we'd normally see CFTC Commitment of Traders reports, but that may be delayed until Monday due to the holiday break. The weekly update of U.S. Drought Monitor Map could also be delayed.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, manufacturing indices will be reported from around the globe early Monday with the U.S. index for June due out at 9 a.m. CDT. USDA's report of weekly export inspections is at 10 a.m. CDT Monday, followed by NASS's Fats and Oils report at 2 p.m. and the weekly Crop Progress report at 3 p.m. Markets in Canada are closed for Canada Day.

Weather

A storm system moving into the Northern Plains on Monday is already producing areas of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Western Corn Belt. A lot of the storms will weaken this morning but will redevelop this afternoon and evening closer to the main cold front. Severe weather and areas of heavy rain are forecast, with southern Nebraska having the best chance for both Monday. Highs: 60s/70s Canadian Prairies; 70s/80s Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Midwest; 80s/90s Central Plains, Delta, Southeast; 90s/100s Southern Plains.

Rabobank: Consumers Battle Fatigue Over Food Prices

Rabobank’s 2024 July 4th Barbecue Index reached an unprecedented level this year. Hosting a ten-person barbecue on the Fourth of July will cost $99, the highest total on record. This year, beef, beer, soda, and lettuce comprise 64 percent of the total cost. With food prices unlikely to reverse course, Rabobank says this may be the last time we’ll see a summer cookout for ten cost less than $100. Food inflation jumped 25 percent from 2019 to the end of 2023. The additional inflation in the first half of 2024 has been the tipping point. “The consumer is waving the white flag on food inflation,” says Tom Bailey, senior consumer foods analyst at Rabobank. “With an added two percent in price hikes in 2024, coupled with the disparity between the cost of eating out and cooking at home at the widest point in history, we’re seeing heightened fatigue and frugality.”